FINTECH Anything but Alternative

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FINTECH Anything but Alternative FINTECH Anything but alternative Dealmakers in Technology Important disclosures appear at the back of this report GP Bullhound LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority GP Bullhound Inc is a member of FINRA EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CONTENTS 02 Executive Summary 03 THE VIEW: Claudio Alvarez and Carl Wessberg 04 Key Trends 06 Funding for Fintech remains resilient 08 Alternative Finance leading the way 10 China cements position as a leader 16 Alternative Finance 19 EXPERT VIEW: Christian Faes - LendInvest 20 Digital Payments 23 EXPERT VIEW: Jacob de Geer - iZettle 24 EXPERT VIEW: David Fock - Klarna 25 EXPERT VIEW: Oscar Berglund - Trustly 26 Data Software 29 Insurtech 32 Digital Banking 35 EXPERT VIEW: Rishi Kholsa - OakNorth Bank 36 Asset Management 40 Methodology 2 FINTECH: ANYTHING BUT ALTERNATIVE 3 THE VIEW From GP Bullhound Claudio Alvarez Carl Wessberg Director Director Over the past three years, global venture capital investment into Fintech has risen by 4.7x to $13.6 billion in 2016 and these companies are now creating significant shareholder value: there are now 39 Fintech companies valued at over a billion dollars. The reasons for the strong investment appetite are strong growth in e-commerce and a supportive clear: using technology and data, Fintech firms in regulatory environment. However, in Europe, with its developed markets are providing financial services stronger traditional financial services sector, a focus and solutions in more efficient and streamlined on disruption is giving way to collaboration and ways to fill the gap that legacy institutions have left. enablement and a “flight to class” has emerged Meanwhile, in emerging markets, Fintech firms are amongst investors targeting more mature segments, building a world-class, digital-first financial services such as alternative lending and payments. Category infrastructure. winners are already emerging and consolidation is starting to pick up pace as investors become more Fintech companies are now firmly established in the selective, and established players look to M&A to mainstream of the financial services market. Indeed, accelerate growth. it is a point of debate how symbiotic the relationship between Fintech and traditional financial institutions A clear set of messages emerges for European Fintech is. However, we can be certain that there is more to from our guest experts included in this research. come from the Fintech sector as it leverages the next First, there remains a significant market opportunity wave of innovation and we expect investment into focused on improving the user experience of financial the sector to remain resilient. services. The lines between sectors (lending, banking, payments, wealth management) are also starting Venture Capital investment into Fintech globally to blur from the consumer’s point of view, as digital remained robust in 2016 despite a challenging becomes the dominant channel for interaction. political and economic backdrop, underlining Second, Europe is able to leverage hubs of talent, the long-term attractiveness of the sector. Across strong financial services ecosystems and its regulatory Alternative Finance, Digital Payments, Data & environment. Finally, new waves of innovation are on Software, Insurtech, Digital Banking and Asset their way to provide even greater value. Management, there are now some 39 billion-dollar Fintech companies and there is a raft of companies At GP Bullhound, we work closely with many of the hot on their heels. best companies and investors in the Fintech sector. We are passionate about building more category The Fintech sector is a tale of two regions. Explosive leaders across Europe and know that Fintech is a growth in China stems from the opportunities created sector that will continue to shape the way financial by under-banked consumer and SME markets, institutions deliver services to consumers. GP Bullhound Research Source: Company data, Capital IQ, Mergermarket, CB Insights (US data), PitchBook, press articles, GP Bullhound analysis as at March 2017 KEY TRENDS KEY TRENDS 4 FINTECH: ANYTHING BUT ALTERNATIVE 5 KEY TRENDS KEY TRENDS Funding for Fintech remains resilient Investor appetite for Fintech remained strong in 2016, despite a backdrop of political uncertainty in Europe and the US and a perceived slowdown in global economic activity. Venture capital investment in 2016 totalled $13.6 billion, up 7 per cent on the stellar prior year. However, the number of investee companies fell by 100 to 840, continuing the trend towards larger fundraisings. The record-setting $4.5 billion funding of China’s Ant valued at over $1 billion: Funding Circle, Paysafe and Financial was a major contributor to the global tally. Transferwise, and we do not see that changing, given However, Fintech funding in Europe remained robust London’s prominence in financial services. at $1.4 billion and the number of companies funded hit a seven-year high at 247. Investors continue to We expect 2017 to be another year of resilience for see opportunities in Europe’s disparate financing Fintech funding in Europe and we have already seen ecosystem as well as London’s role within the global several high-profile capital raises announced: Funding Fintech sector, which remains considerable, despite Circle, iZettle, Atom Bank and Monzo. We think these the uncertainties stemming from Brexit. will set the pace for the rest of the year. We expect VC investors to continue to back established players Within Europe, the UK and Germany share the and also to increase investment in new technologies, limelight, with nine of the top ten Fintech VC rounds such as Artificial Intelligence and Digital Ledger, and being completed in the two countries. However, the new business models, such as Digital Banking. UK continues to lead the way with three companies Global - Quarterly VC-backed Fintech investment activity (2011 - 2016) Global - Quarterly VC-backed fintech investment activity (2011 2016) 231 Total Funding ($m) 224 211 202 203 210 Total of Transactions 194 192 1 17 171 19 19 160 $5.2bn $5.0bn 132 12 $4.9bn 114 104 110 101 88 88 $3.4bn $3.1bn 6 71 $2.9bn $2.4bn $2.4bn $1.9bn $1.7bn $1.6bn $1.3bn $1.0bn $0.9bn $0.7bn $0.6bn $0.6bn $0.6bn $0.6bn $0.6bn $0.6bn $0.6bn $0.5bn $0.4bn Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2011 2012 2013 2014 201 2016 GP Bullhound Research Source: KPMG Venture Pulse, Pitchbook 6 FINTECH: ANYTHING BUT ALTERNATIVE 7 Global venture investment in Fintech companies (USD $bn) Global venture investment in fintech companies (USD $bn) Capital Invested 942 of Transactions 42 40 13.6 627 12.7 419 300 6.7 119 2.9 1.4 1.9 0.8 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201 2016 Venture investment in Fintech by region (2014 - 2016) Venture investment in fintech by region (2014 2016) Sie of bubble indicates total deal value 600 2016 US 201 00 2014 400 Europe 300 Asia umber of transactions 200 100 0 00 10 20 30 40 0 60 70 0 90 Total eal Value ($bn) GP Bullhound Research Source: Company data, Capital IQ, Mergermarket, CB Insights (US data), PitchBook, press articles, GP Bullhound analysis as at March 2017 KEY TRENDS Alternative Finance is the vertical with the most companies valued at $1 billion or above Of the 39 Fintech companies valued at $1 billion and above, 16 are in the Alternative Finance space and three were created in 2016 in this vertical alone - two in China and one in Hong Kong. However, whilst Asia is in a super-growth phase, Western companies are maturing. Business models are broadening out and we believe the sector is ripe for consolidation. Billion-dollar companies in this space have raised an Atom Bank and Oak North aggressively seeking to average of $670 million of equity and have achieved use their deposits base to compete with established an average valuation of $3.1 billion. Asia leads the Alternative Finance players. pack with average valuations reaching $3.7 billion, and Ant Financial is the world’s largest Fintech Higher competition, a focus on proving the company at a valuation of $60 billion. Alternative profitability and sustainability of business models and Finance in China will remain in a super-growth phase cautious investor sentiment suggest that the sector is but we also see interesting developments underway ripe for consolidation. We also see traditional banks in Western markets as companies adapt to a and financial institutions playing a more pivotal role changing market and a more cautious investor base. in the development of the market, as Alternative Finance players seek to diversify their sources of In Europe and the US, companies such as Zopa and capital towards bank funding, warehouse financing, SoFi have applied for banking licenses in order to be wholesale loans, securitisation and credit facilities, in able to raise consumer deposits and thereby reduce order to fund origination growth. All of this bodes well their cost of capital. Digital banks are also entering for the industry as it matures and becomes an enabler the Alternative Finance market, with banks such as rather than a disrupter of lending. Marcus (launched by Goldman Sachs in the US), Global marketplace lending to reach $290bn by 2020 Loan Volume 2016 (USD $bn) (USD $bn) 2020 286.3 2019 273.2 8.7 201 220.3 2017 182.8 2 2016 119.1 201 61.2 2.4x 2014 23.7 3.2 2013 9.3 US 2012 2.4 UK 1.3 1.0 2011 1.4 China 2010 1.0 ustralia Lending Club SoFi Kabbage Funding Circle GP Bullhound Research Source: Morgan Stanley; LendAcademy *Estimated 8 FINTECH: ANYTHING BUT ALTERNATIVE 9 ALTERNATIVE FINANCE LEADING THE WAY Fintech verticals 16 Companies valued at $1 billion and above by vertical 10 8 2 2 1 ALTERNATIVE DIGITAL DATA & DIGITAL INSURTECH ASSET FINANCE PAYMENTS SOFTWARE BANKING MANAGEMENT GP Bullhound Research Source: Company data, Capital IQ, Mergermarket, CB Insights (US data), PitchBook, press articles, GP Bullhound analysis as at March 2017 KEY TRENDS China cements its position as a leader in the Fintech universe 2016 saw China solidify its status as one of the leaders in Fintech, with 13 billion-dollar companies – four of which reached this valuation in 2016 – and the country’s weighting will undoubtedly increase in the coming years.
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