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Three Essays in Italian Economic History

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Three Essays in Italian Economic History Sapienza University of Rome Doctoral Thesis Three essays in italian economic history This dissertation is submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at the european Phd program in Socio-economic and statistical studies Candidate Advisor Vitantonio Mariella Prof. Mauro Rota iii Declaration of Authorship I declare that this thesis titled Three essays in italian economic history and the work presented in it are my own. I confirm that except where specific reference is made to the work of others, the contents of this dissertation are original and have not been submitted in whole or in part for consideration for any other degree or qualification in this, or any other university. This dissertation contains nothing which is the outcome of work done in collaboration with others, except as specified in the text and Acknowledgements. To my father v Acknowledgements I would like to express my sincere gratitude to Prof. Mauro Rota for his precious guidance, mentorship and support, without whom the research would not have been possible. A special thank goes to Prof. David Chilosi, whose help made my Visiting experience particularly fruitful. I would also like to thank Francesco S.L, Francesco B., Paolo, Teresa, Lucrezia, Serena, Luigi and my cousins Peppone and Peppino. Without them my life would have been much sadder. My biggest thanks goes to my family for all the support shown me through this research experience. My most sincere gratitude goes to Costanza for her patience, support and love, who makes my life a wonderful adventure. And sorry for being even grumpier than normal whilst I wrote this thesis! All of you stimulated my mind to move beyond its limits. vii Contents Declaration of Authorship iii Acknowledgmentsv Introduction1 1 Landownership concentration and human capital accumulation in Post- Unification Italy (1871-1921)7 1.1 Introduction..................................8 1.2 Literature review............................... 11 1.3 Historical context............................... 13 1.3.1 Human capital in Post-Unification Italy: an overview....... 13 1.3.2 Italy's education system, 1859-1821................. 14 1.3.3 The agrarian structure of the italian economy........... 15 1.4 Data...................................... 17 1.5 Empirical strategy.............................. 28 1.5.1 OLS estimates............................ 28 1.5.2 IV estimates: the role of malaria.................. 32 Malaria and latifundia in the italian countryside......... 32 1.5.3 Panel results............................. 39 1.5.4 Robustness checks.......................... 42 Additional controls.......................... 42 Validating the instrument: falsification tests............ 46 1.6 Mechanism of transmission: supply vs demand.............. 48 1.7 Conclusions.................................. 58 1.8 Appendix................................... 68 viii 2 Tenancy contracts, land inequality and social capital at the origins of the North-South divide in Italy 77 2.1 Introduction.................................. 78 2.2 Literature review............................... 82 2.3 Historical background............................ 85 2.3.1 Three agrarian Italie ......................... 85 2.3.2 The debate around latifundia .................... 87 2.4 Definition and measurement of social capital................ 89 2.5 Data and empirical strategy......................... 91 2.5.1 Social capital measures....................... 91 2.5.2 Other historical and geographical variables............ 92 2.6 Empirical results............................... 94 2.6.1 OLS results, weighted........................ 94 2.6.2 Why do we have short-term contracts only in some geographic areas?................................. 103 2.6.3 Malaria and short-term tenancy agreements............ 104 2.6.4 IV results............................... 105 2.6.5 Spatial analysis............................ 107 2.7 Mechanism of transmission......................... 110 2.7.1 Industrial districts and sharecropping............... 111 2.7.2 Testing the role of industrial districts............... 112 2.7.3 Macroregional estimates....................... 114 2.8 Conclusions.................................. 116 2.9 Appendix................................... 124 3 Stepping into the past: a reconstruction of the Italian provincial pop- ulation (1770 ca.-1861) 127 3.1 Introduction.................................. 128 3.2 Data reconstruction............................. 129 3.3 Consistency of the new data......................... 130 3.4 Two demographic regimes.......................... 135 3.5 Discussion of results............................. 140 3.6 Conclusions.................................. 144 3.7 Appendix................................... 149 3.7.1 Kingdom of the two Sicilies (continental part)........... 149 ix Foggia................................. 149 Salerno................................ 149 Caserta................................ 150 Avellino................................ 150 Potenza................................ 150 Molise (Campobasso) and Benevento................ 151 Naples................................. 151 Catanzaro and Reggio Calabria................... 151 Cosenza................................ 151 Chieti, Teramo and L'Aquila.................... 152 3.7.2 Kingdom of the Two Sicilies (Sicily)................ 152 3.7.3 The Papal State........................... 152 Rome (Latium)............................ 152 Perugia (Umbria)........................... 153 3.7.4 Marche................................ 153 Ascoli................................. 153 Macerata............................... 153 Ancona................................ 154 Pesaro-Urbino............................ 154 3.7.5 Romagna............................... 154 Bologna................................ 154 Ferrara................................ 155 Ravenna................................ 155 Forl`ı.................................. 155 3.7.6 Granduchy of Tuscany (Tuscany) and Duchy of Lucca...... 155 Arezzo................................. 156 Florence................................ 156 Grosseto................................ 156 Siena................................. 157 Pisa.................................. 157 Lucca................................. 157 Massa-Carrara............................ 157 Livorno................................ 158 3.7.7 Duchy of Modena and Reggio Emilia................ 158 x Modena and Reggio Emilia..................... 158 3.7.8 Duchy of Parma and Piacenza................... 158 Parma and Piacenza......................... 159 3.7.9 Kingdom of Sardinia......................... 159 Genova and Porto-Maurizio..................... 159 Turin................................. 160 Alessandria.............................. 160 Novara................................. 160 Cuneo................................. 160 Cagliari................................ 160 Sassari................................. 161 3.7.10 Lombard-Venetian kingdom: Lombardy.............. 161 Milan................................. 161 Pavia................................. 162 Mantua................................ 162 Brescia................................ 162 Bergamo................................ 163 Cremona............................... 163 Como................................. 163 Sondrio................................ 164 3.7.11 Lombard-Venetian kingdom: Veneto................ 164 Venezia................................ 164 Belluno................................ 165 Padua................................. 165 Vicenza................................ 165 Rovigo................................. 166 Verona................................. 166 Udine................................. 166 Treviso................................ 166 3.8 Appendix................................... 168 xi List of Figures 1.1 Land inequality (proxy and Gini)...................... 19 1.2 Correlation between the share of farm workers and the Gini index for land inequality, 1930.............................. 20 1.3 Correlation between the share of farm workers and the Gini index for land inequality: macroregions........................ 21 1.4 Farm workers in 1881............................ 22 1.5 Literacy rate (1881)............................. 24 1.6 Literacy rate by macroregion (trend).................... 25 1.7 Malaria digitalization............................. 34 1.8 Plausibly exogenous test: 95% interval estimates............. 49 1.9 Correlation between predicted values: gini and farm workers (1930)... 69 1.10 Trend over time of main variables...................... 70 1.11 Conditional scatterplots (literacy and farm workers)........... 70 1.12 Conditional scatterplots (farm workers and malaria)........... 71 2.1 Short-term contracts and malaria...................... 95 3.1 Annual provincial growth rates per thousand (1785 ca.-1861)...... 132 3.2 Italian population growth rates....................... 137 3.3 The two demographic regimes at province-level.............. 138 3.4 Scatterplots of unconditional convergence in population......... 142 3.5 Provincial trends in population (thousands)................ 170 xiii List of Tables 1.1 Summary of the variables: district-level.................. 26 1.2 Summary of the variables: province-level.................. 27 1.3 Literacy and farm workers, OLS (district-level).............. 30 1.4 Literacy and farm workers, OLS (province-level)............. 31 1.5 IV estimates (district-level)......................... 36 1.6 IV estimates (province-level)........................ 37 1.7 Panel
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