Cluster Meeting Kiev 29 May, 2017 Contact: Line.Rindebaek@Fscluster.Org & Info.Ukraine@Fscluster.Org AGENDA

Cluster Meeting Kiev 29 May, 2017 Contact: [email protected] & [email protected] AGENDA

Approval of Minutes – no comments received 

ACTION POINT: STATUS FOLLOW UP

PARTNER UPDATES - ACTIVITY Retroactive update prepared at oblast level. None CLASSIFICATION: FSLC to finalize mapping of 2016 livelihood Livelihood activities highlighted during field activities & highlight livelihoods activities in meetings. terms of geographical distribution. PARTNER UPDATES: NGO Forum paper on data protection will be None FSLC to follow up on the law on data shared with minutes. protection (with CWG etc) and provide The next CWG meeting will include a update in next meeting. presentation and discussion of data protection. NGO FORUM SPHERE TRAINING: Printed training material – due to arrive in Food Security: CC to coordinate with NGO Forum on July. Dates to be potential training sessions. For Livelihoods training, NGO Forum is finalised for July. looking for an expert to volunteer to provide this training as they do not have in house Livelihoods: NGO expert at present. volunteer needed Partner Activity Update

FSLC objective 1 ACCESS TO FOOD Ensure Immediate Access To Food For The Most Vulnerable Groups Affected By The Conflict FOOD SECURITY ANALYSIS - UPDATE APRIL 2017 ACCESS TO FOOD INTERVENTIONS HRP FS community Donetska 20,057 43,455 GCA 9,894 33,292 NGCA 10,163 10,163 Luhanska 4,956 12,736 GCA 4,954 12,734

NGCA 2 2 Dnipropetrovska 150 Khersonska 60 60 Zaporizska 462 862 Zhytomyrska 240 Chernihivska 240 Kirovohradska 240 Total 25,535 57,983 PARTNER ACTIVITY UPDATE Please note, the map only reflectsPARTNER the ACTIVITY UPDATE interventions of those organisations that reports to the FSLC. APRIL 2017

Please note, the map only reflects the interventions of those organisationsPARTNER ACTIVITY UPDATE that reports to the FSLC.

For project planning and targeting, please contact [email protected] for further details 31 May 2017 Partner Activity Update

FSLC objective 2 AGRICULTURAL INPUTS Help affected people with food security / livelihood assistance and support food production FSLC objective 2 AGRICULTURAL INPUTS JANUARY - APRIL

Activity Number of HH Organization

Distribution of inputs 5,777 Emmanuel

Distribution of voucher for agricultural inputs 3,317 PIN

Distribution of fodder 568 FAO

Total 9,662 FAO, PIN, Emmanuel FSC objective 2 AGRICULTURAL INPUTS PLANS FSLC objective 2 AGRICULTURAL INPUT - PLANS

Oblast Number of HH Donetska 3,874 Luhanska 8,501 Total 12,375 FSC objective 2 AGRICULTURAL INPUTS PLANS Partner Activity Update

FSLC objective 3 LIVELIHOOD ACTIVITIES Employment and income generation of the conflict affected populations FSLC objective 3 LIVELIHOOD ASSETS

Activity Number of HH Organization trainings (light) 3,931IOM, MC, UNDP

Livelihoods grants (other, non agricultural) 2,699CARITAS, DRC, IOM, MC, PIN, SC Cash for work 231SC

Vocational Training (more extensive training) 226CARITAS, IOM Livelihoods grants (agricultural ) 222PIN

Job creation grants (as a separate category) 59DRC, MC, PIN Total 7,368CARITAS, DRC, IOM, MC, PIN, SC PARTNER ACTIVITY UPDATE PARTNER ACTIVITY UPDATE PARTNER ACTIVITY UPDATE FSLC objective 3 LIVELIHOOD ASSETS 2016

Grants Light Trinings

Donetska 1,210 755

Luhanska 1,569 2,567

Other regions 2,345 3,107

Total 5,124 6,429 PARTNER ACTIVITY UPDATE Questions? AGENDA

1. Follow Up Action Points / Minutes 2. Partner Activity Update 3. Brief Updates: a) Joint Food Security and Vulnerability Assessment, b) Contingency Planning Update and c) Winterisation 4. Analysis of Impact of Conflict on Socio-economic Situation in Eastern Ukraine - Findings (FSLC / UCSR) 5. AOB 3. BRIEF UPDATES: a) Joint Food Security & Vulnerability Assessment . First joint assessment under the Food Security & Livelihoods Cluster. No dedicated funding – pooled resources. . WFP (KIIS), PIN, Caritas, NRC, ADRA, Dorcas, ACF and FAO as well as FSLC (with REACH support). . Training of enumerators in Slovyansk PIN Office yesterday and data collection to start early June. . GCA sample is 800 interviews (undertaken by all organisations) – representative at oblast level. . NGCA sample is 1900 interviews (undertaken by WFP with KIIS) – representative at “cluster level”. . Results expected in July. 3. BRIEF UPDATES: b) Contingency Planning – Summer Scenario The 2015 inter agency contingency plan scenario and situation analysis to be updated: ─ Military escalations over summer period ─ Power and water cuts (and subsequent knock on effects) ─ Chemical emergency (chlorine gas) ─ Possible outbreak of disease ─ Potential impact of blockade of RAF and of nationalisation of factories/mines. 3. BRIEF UPDATES:

c) Winterisation: 2017-18

 Update the Food Security Guidance Note from 2016  Joint efforts / advocacy - prepare common cover note to Shelter and FSLC Guidance Notes.  Initial update from field: limited winterisation plans. AGENDA

UKRAINIAN CENTER FOR SOCIAL REFORMS Kyiv - April, 2017 Project objectives: Geographical coverage: . Analysis of the impact of Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovs’k, conflict on socio-economic Zaporizhzhya oblasts , Ukrainian situation and the government controlled territories vulnerability of populations; of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts . Identification of the potential of regions Period of analysis: development; 2010-2016 years (considering the . Determination of options to availability of data after 2014) support employment and income of population affected by the conflict

UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms Analysis of the impact of conflict at regional level

GDP, inflation, incomes

Business activity

Foreign Key Findings Analysis economic activity

Labor market

The analysis is based on secondary Demography data, mainly on official information of Socio-economic State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Poverty and status of IDPs Social vulnerability UCSRUkrainian Center for Social Reforms 30 Content of Presentation

 Economic situation  Labour market and employment  Social indicators  Socio-economic situation of IDPs  Conclusions

UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms 31 The Analysis shows the impact of conflict on the following areas:

Macro and demographic indicators (GDP, infrastructure, MACRO LEVEL Export/Import, investments, inflation) IMPACT

Big enterprise (29%) Government Bodies % ENTERPRISE / Medium enterprise (44%) LABOUR FORCE

Small enterprise (15%) LEVEL

Micro enterprise (12%) Unemployment

Individual entrepreneurs

Household level (pensions, economic active population, children) HOUSEHOLD / LIVELIHOODS LEVEL HH level indicators (demographic indicators, income, expenditure, poverty, food Ukrainian Center for Socialsecurity Reforms etc) Economic situation

UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms 33 Comparison of Gross Regional Product and Population rates

Share of the gross regional product Share of the population

14 12

12 10

10 8

4 4 Dnipropetrovs’k oblast Dnipropetrovs’k oblast Donetsk oblast 2 Donetsk oblast 2 Zaporizhzhya oblast Zaporizhzhya oblast Luhansk oblast Luhansk oblast Kharkiv oblast Kharkiv oblast 0 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms Trends of the Basic Indices, 2010-2016

220 Dnipropetrovs'k Oblast' 220 Zaporizhzhya Oblast' Index, % to 2010 200 200

180 180

160 160

140 140

120 120

100 100

80 80

60 60

40 40

20 20

0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016^ 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016^

220 Donetsk Oblast' 220 Luhansk Oblast' Index, % to 2010 Index, % to 2010 200 200

180 180

160 160

140 140

120 120

100 100

80 80

60 60

40 40

20 20

0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2016^ 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2016^

220 Kharkiv Oblast'

200 180 Consumer Price Index 160

140 Price Index (for food products and non-alcohol drinks) 120 Real Income Index 100 Index of Physical Value of Gross Regional Product 80 2016^ - preliminary data 60

0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016^

UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms Changes in structure of Gross Value Added, %

Dnipropetrovs'k Zaporizhzhya Ukraine Donetsk Oblast' Luhansk Oblast' Kharkiv Oblast' Oblast' Oblast' 2013 2015 Δ 2013 2015 Δ 2013 2015 Δ 2013 2015 Δ 2013 2015 Δ 2013 2015 Δ Agriculture 9.9 14.2 4.3 6.4 9.3 2.9 4.6 7.9 3.3 11.5 14.8 3.3 6.9 20.4 13.5 10.5 14.3 3.8 Industry 22.7 23.3 0.6 45.2 44.6 -0.6 37.4 41.9 4.5 38.3 40.0 1.7 40.0 32.0 -8.0 21.3 26.4 5.1 Construction 2.9 2.3 -0.6 1.9 1.4 -0.5 3.0 2.2 -0.8 1.4 0.9 -0.5 1.8 1.1 -0.7 2.7 2.1 -0.6 Trade, transportation 25.8 24.9 -0.9 20.3 18.9 -1.4 27.8 22.2 -5.6 17.5 15.8 -1.7 19.0 10.4 -8.6 23.0 21.3 -1.7 Information 3.7 4.3 0.6 2.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 1.6 0.6 1.4 1.5 0.1 1.0 2.2 1.2 3.6 4.8 1.2 Financial activities 5.0 4.0 -1.0 3.8 2.8 -1.0 3.4 3.1 -0.3 3.0 4.4 1.4 2.5 2.1 -0.4 4.4 2.7 -1.7 Real estate activities 7.4 7.3 -0.1 5.5 6.4 0.9 7.0 7.2 0.2 6.5 5.5 -1.0 7.4 8.0 0.6 8.3 7.5 -0.8 Professional services 5.0 4.6 -0.4 3.3 3.0 -0.3 2.9 1.6 -1.3 3.1 2.0 -1.1 2.4 2.1 -0.3 6.2 4.2 -2.0 Public administration 15.5 13.5 -2.0 10.5 10.7 0.2 11.2 11.0 -0.2 15.5 13.9 -1.6 17.2 19.9 2.7 17.8 15.0 -2.8 Other services 2.1 1.6 -0.5 1.1 0.9 -0.2 1.7 1.3 -0.4 1.8 1.2 -0.6 1.8 1.8 0.0 2.2 1.7 -0.5

Description NACE , Rev. 2 Agriculture Agriculture, forestry and fishing A Industry Manufacturing, mining and quarrying and other industry B, C, D, E Construction Construction F Wholesale and retail trade, transportation and storage, accommodation and food service Trade, transportation G, H, I activities Information Information and communication J Financial activities Financial and insurance activities K Real estate activities Real estate activities L Professional services Professional, scientific, technical, administration and support service activities M, N Public administration Public administration, defence, education, human health and social work activities O, P, Q Other services Other services R, S, T Structure of Gross Value Added by types of economic activity for 2013, %

UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms Structure of Gross Value Added by types of economic activity for 2015, %

UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms Comparison of numbers of enterprises by their size and regions, 2013, 2015

Enterprises Ukraine, Dnipropetrovsʹk Donetsk Zaporizhzhya Luhansk Kharkiv by size thousands

2013 All 393.3 28194 28731 14777 11385 26086 Large 0.7 67 103 23 28 32 Medium 18.9 1476 1587 635 660 1171 Small 373.8 26651 27041 14119 10697 24883 of them 318.5 22538 23049 12141 8963 21330 micro-enterprises 2015 All 343.4 27251 11763 14423 3354 24938 Large 0.4 55 40 17 7 13 Medium 15.2 1227 872 587 241 1098 Small 327.8 25969 10851 13819 3106 23827

of them 284.2 22496 9172 12133 2666 20701 micro-enterprises

UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms Relative change in the number of enterprises by size in the regions, %

Enterprises Ukraine Dnipropetrovsʹk Donetsk Zaporizhzhya Luhansk Kharkiv by size

All -8.6 1.4 -59.3 -3.4 -69.7 -3.1

Large -42.9 -26.7 -63.0 -32.0 -76.7 -60.6

Medium -26.9 -24.1 -47.5 -21.9 -67.2 -13.1

Small -7.5 3.2 -60.0 -2.4 -69.8 -2.5

of them -3.9 7.5 -59.8 1.1 -68.5 0.3 micro-enterprises

UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms 40 Comparison of employed people numbers by size of enterprises and regions, 2013, 2015, %

Enterprises Ukraine Dnipropetrovsʹk Donetsk Zaporizhzhya Luhansk Kharkiv by size

2013 All 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Large 32.2 44.8 50.1 35.2 43.0 25.7 Medium 40.7 36.0 32.4 38.7 38.0 44.8 Small 27.1 19.2 17.5 26.2 18.9 29.5 of them 10.7 7.5 6.9 10.9 7.1 12.0 micro-enterprises 2015 All 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Large 29.0 43.4 51.5 28.8 43.9 18.4 Medium 44.2 36.9 36.9 46.1 42.2 53.1 Small 26.8 19.7 11.6 25.0 13.9 28.5

of them 11.7 8.8 5.1 11.6 5.7 12.7 micro-enterprises

UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms Comparison of sold products by size of enterprises and regions, 2013, 2015, %

Enterprises Ukraine Dnipropetrovsʹk Donetsk Zaporizhzhya Luhansk Kharkiv by size

2013 All 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Large 42.5 59.9 53.2 56.7 52.8 28.0 Medium 41.0 27.9 37.6 26.0 31.3 47.0 Small 16.5 12.2 9.2 17.4 16.0 25.0 of them 5.3 4.1 2.9 6.1 5.1 8.2 micro-enterprises 2015 All 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Large 39.8 60.5 66.6 52.3 43.0 19.6 Medium 42.0 25.4 26.3 29.7 34.8 53.2 Small 18.2 14.1 7.2 18.0 22.2 27.2

of them 6.0 5.2 2.4 6.7 7.8 8.9 micro-enterprises

UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms Dynamics of exports / imports of goods, 2013-2016

mln USD Expotrs of goods 14000

12000

10000

8000 Dnipropetrovs'k Oblast‘

6000

4000 Donetsk Oblast‘

2000

0 2013 2014* 2015* 2016* Zaporizhzhya Oblast‘

mln USD Imports of goods 14000 Luhansk Oblast‘ 12000

10000

8000 Kharkiv Oblast'

6000

4000

2000

0 2013 2014* 2015* 2016*

UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms 43 Donetsk Oblast' Regional exports / imports of goods, %

2013 2015* 2013 2015* Major commodity groups in exports: Major commodity groups in imports: 72 ferrous metals 55.5 73.8 27 mineral fuel, petroleum and 53.1 63.9 27 mineral fuel, petroleum and petroleum distillation products 11.7 2.6 petroleum distillation products 72 ferrous metals 10.8 4.5 73 preparations from ferrous 7.0 3.4 84 nuclear reactors, boilers, 5.9 4.5 metals machines 86 rail locomotives 5.9 0.2 Major partner countries in imports: 84 nuclear reactors, boilers, 4.0 4.5 machines Russian Federation 50.3 30.0 Major partner countries in exports: China 8.2 5.3 Russian Federation 19.7 16.5 Germany 5.8 4.0 Italy 10.7 21.9 United States 5.4 25.0 Turkey 9.9 13.0 Canada 0.1 7.4 Regional exports of goods to EU 25.7 46.4 Regional imports of goods from EU 30.6 13.3

UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms 44 Luhansk Oblast' Regional exports / imports of goods, %

2013 2015* 2013 2015* Major Commodity Groups in Exports: Major commodity groups in imports: 72 ferrous metals 45.2 52.5 27 mineral fuel, petroleum and 61.5 48.8 86 rail locomotives 18.7 0.8 petroleum distillation products 27 mineral fuel, petroleum and 84 nuclear reactors, boilers, 9.8 2.4 petroleum distillation products machines 5.8 2.5

31 fertilizers 4.1 0.7 85 electric machines 5.7 3.1 28 inorganic chemicals 3.7 0.2 26 ores, slag and ashes 5.3 8.7 Major Partner Countries in Exports: 72 ferrous metals 4.8 0.4 Russian Federation 35.4 38.9 Major partner countries in imports: Hungary 15.6 13.2 Russian Federation 71.3 62.4 Poland 9.4 17.5 United States Turkey 6.4 3.6 7.7 11.7 Belarus 4.1 2.9 China 5.2 2.8 Regional exports of goods to EU 37.3 45.0 Regional imports of goods from EU 13.8 13.4

UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms 45 Exports / Imports of goods (commodity sections I–IV) to total Exports / Imports of goods, % 29.2 30 Exports

25 23.0

20 15.0 15

10 7.6 6.7 5.6 4.7 4.8 5 2.4 0.99

0 2013 2015 2013 2015 2013 2015 2013 2015 2013 2015 Dnipropetrovs'k Oblast' Donetsk Oblast' Zaporizhzhya Oblast' Luhansk Oblast' Kharkiv Oblast'

30 Imports

20 13.7 12.5 11.3 15 9.4 7.6 10 5.9 5.4 3.2 0.67 5 0.06

0 2013 2015 2013 2015 2013 2015 2013 2015 2013 2015 Dnipropetrovs'k Oblast' Donetsk Oblast' Zaporizhzhya Oblast' Luhansk Oblast' Kharkiv Oblast'

I. Live animals and livestock products II. Plant products III. Animal or plant fats and oils IV. Finished food industry products; alcoholic and nonalcoholic beverages, vinegar; tobacco, substitutes of tobacco UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms 46 Labour market and employment

UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms 47 Change in scale of labor force

Thousands persons

2015-2016 Kharkiv Oblast' 2014-2015 2013-2014 2010-2013 Luhansk Oblast'

Zaporizhzhya Oblast'

Donetsk Oblast'

Dnipropetrovs'k Oblast'

-1200 -1000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200

UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms 48 Employment structure by main activities (2012, 2015)

UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms 49 Changes in employment by economic sectors (NACE Rev. 2)

Thousands persons 2100

Other Services (O-S) 1800

1500 Business-Economy Services (H-N) 1200 Trade (G)

900 Construction (F) 600 Industry (B-E) 300

0 Agriculture (А)

Kharkiv -2012 Kharkiv -2015 Kharkiv

Donetsk-2012 Donetsk-2015

Luhansk -2012 Luhansk -2015 Luhansk

Zaporizhzhya -2012 Zaporizhzhya -2015 Zaporizhzhya

Dnipropetrovs'k -2012 Dnipropetrovs'k -2015 Dnipropetrovs'k

UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms 50 Industrial employment decline (deindustrialization)

Thousands persons

2014-2015 Kharkiv Oblast' 2013-2014 2012-2013 Luhansk Oblast'

Zaporizhzhya Oblast'

Donetsk Oblast'

Dnipropetrovs'k Oblast'

-200 -150 -100 -50 0

UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms 51 Unemployment rate (by ILO methodology)

% 18 Dnipropetrovs'k Oblast'

16 Donetsk Oblast' Zaporizhzhya Oblast' 14 Luhansk Oblast' 12 Kharkiv Oblast'

0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms 52 Gap in unemployment by ILO methodology and registered unemployment, 2016

UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms 53 Activity of The State Employment service of Ukraine, 2016

% Level of employment of unemployed persons Level of staffing of vacancies

100 94.0 94.4 88.5 90 86.9 80 77.0 70 60 50 45.7 37.8 40 31.6 32.2 32.9 30 20 10 0 Dnipropetrovs'k Donetsk Oblast' Zaporizhzhya Luhansk Oblast' Kharkiv Oblast' Oblast' Oblast'

UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms 54 Overqualification of the labour force, 2015

Dnipropetrovs’k Oblast’ Donetsk Oblast’ Zaporizhzhya Oblast’

60 60 60

50 50 50

40 40 40

30 30 30

20 20 20

10 10 10

0 0 0 high medium low high medium low high medium low

Luhansk Oblast’ Kharkiv Oblast’

60 60

50 50 High – Legislators, senior officials and 40 40 managers, Professionals, Experts; Medium - Associate professionals, 30 30 Shop/market sales workers and service 20 20 workers, Skilled workers in agriculture and forestry, fishery and fishing, Skilled 10 10 workers with tools, Plant and machine 0 0 operators and assemblers; high medium low high medium low Low - Elementary occupations.

UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms 55 Social indicators

UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms 56 Changes in the number and economic activity of the population

2.0

1.0

0.0

-1.0

-2.0 Population change, % -3.0 2013-2016 Change in the economic -4.0 activity of the population, p.p. 2013-2015 -5.0

-6.0

-7.0

-8.0 Dnipropetrovs'k Donetsk Oblast' Zaporizhzhya Luhansk Oblast' Kharkiv Oblast' Oblast' Oblast'

UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms 57 Poverty rates in 2013, 2015 by different criteria

Oblast’ by actual cost of living * by relative criterion**

2013 2015 2013 2015 Dnipropetrovs'k 26.6 60.1 29.0 25.2 Donetsk 21.6 65.6 24.2 29.5 Zaporizhzhya 13.4 48.4 15.4 15.5 Luhansk 19.7 74.3 23.0 42.6 Kharkiv 11.7 55.5 13.8 19.5 Ukraine 22.1 58.3 24.8 22.9

*Actual cost of living: 2013 - UAH 1155, 2015 - UAH 2257

**75% of median of average per capita total income

UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms 58 Poverty indicators by different household groups 2013 2015 2013 2015 Poverty Rate / Depth Rate Depth Rate Depth Rate Depth Rate Depth Dnipropetrovs'k Donetsk Urban area 24.3 19.2 59.6 29.0 19.1 21.8 65.0 27.4 Rural area 38.3 30.8 62.7 33.7 45.1 21.4 68.6 34.0 Households with children 33.7 22.1 67.8 34.1 29.6 22.6 67.6 31.1 Households of pensioners 22.3 18.8 61.0 26.4 13.4 18.9 60.1 26.5 Households of persons aged 75 + 34.8 20.4 69.2 29.9 28.2 23.6 70.7 28.4 Zaporizhzhya Luhansk Urban area 9.4 18.3 46.8 25.5 18.2 22.0 73.7 34.8 Rural area 26.4 26.3 53.5 18.1 29.4 31.4 75.5 32.4 Households with children 18.8 22.6 55.0 24.3 19.9 26.4 88.6 32.4 Households of pensioners 2.7 7.3 53.5 19.6 17.6 12.7 56.7 25.0 Households of persons aged 75 + 3.0 8.5 76.5 21.3 29.8 11.9 73.2 20.6 Kharkiv Ukraine Urban area 11.4 9.1 54.0 22.9 17.5 19.4 55.6 25.5 Rural area 13.1 22.9 61.8 33.0 31.9 22.6 63.6 29.3 Households with children 20.1 12.8 63.9 27.2 28.6 21.4 66.5 28.3 Households of pensioners 8.5 7.5 58.7 20.3 13.3 17.3 52.5 23.4 Households of persons aged 75 + 7.4 7.0 70.2 24.1 21.0 18.8 63.2 24.3

* Poverty rate by actual minimum subsistence level (poverty threshold) ** Poverty depth – differences in % between the average income of the poor and the poverty threshold

UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms 59 Comparison of Salary and Income between SSSU & REACH Data

Salary level estimates by Average of total income SSSU and REACH ,UAH estimates by SSSU and IAVA, per month: UAH per HH: Salary, UAH Region IAVA data set SSSU per month IDP&ND IDP ND Donetsk 6017 (SSSU) Total 5464,20 5961,72 4846,63 4990,86 Luhansk 5043 Donetsk 5406,66 5841,84 4866,04 5013,29 (SSSU) Luhansk 5570,30 6182,97 4810,88 4931,72 Average for Ukraine 6094,57 Donbas GCA 4830 (REACH)

UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms Structure of consumer spending

Ukraine Dnipropetrovs'k Donetsk Zaporizhzhya Luhansk Kharkiv Foodstuffs 52.9 55.7 60.3 50.5 47.0 48.5 Non-food 31.7 27.5 27.6 31.7 38.2 37.2 Products Services 15.4 16.8 12.1 17.8 14.8 14.4

Consumer spending (UAH per household)

5000 4718 4703 4564 4382 4361 4500 4000 3380 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Ukraine Dnipropetrovs'k Donetsk Zaporizhzhya Luhansk Kharkiv

UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms 61 Distribution of pensioners by Average pension by region, pension size, Ukraine, 2016 UAH 2016

80.00 1969 70.00

60.00 1850 1827 50.00 1792 Actual cost of 40.00 76,00 living 1735 % 1700 30.00

20.00 11,48 10.00 4,31 5,01 0.00 1,70 1,41 0,09

Amount of pensions, UAH

UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms Share of housing subsidies recipients in the total number of households (beginning of 2017)

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% Dnipropetrovs'k Donetsk Zaporizhzhya Luhansk Kharkiv Ukraine

UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms 63 Regional Human Development Index (RHDI)*

4.40

4.30 4.27

4.21 4.20 4.20 4.15

4.10

4.00 3.97 3.96 3.96 3.95 3.91 3.83 3.85 3.87 3.90 3.85 3.80 3.80 3.74 3.78 3.80 3.79 3.68 3.77 3.75 3.72 3.70 3.70 3.74 3.64 3.64 3.61 3.61 3.60 3.57 3.58 3.53 3.52

3.50 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Dnipropetrovs'k Oblast' Zaporizhzhya Oblast' Kharkiv Oblast' Luhansk Oblast' Donetsk Oblast' Ukraine

* Calculated on a total of 33 indicators.

UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms 64 Blocks-aspects & RDHI ranks*, 2013 (RDHIs for 25 regions of Ukraine)

Reproduction Social Comfortable Decent Integral Welfare Education of Population Environment Life Work RDHI

Dnipropetrovs'k Oblast' 18 21 17 8 5 2 15

Donetsk Oblast' 25 18 25 9 4 1 20

Zaporizhzhya Oblast' 17 19 20 1 11 4 6

Luhansk Oblast' 20 23 18 4 9 11 16

Kharkiv Oblast‘ 11 4 10 2 7 3 1

* Calculated on a total of 33 indicators.

UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms 65 Socio-economic Situation of IDPs

UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms 66 Number and demographic structure of IDPs

Number of IDPs, The share of The share of pensioners and Oblast persons total IDPs, % disabled persons, %

Dnipropetrovsʹk 76 986 4.6 44.3 Donetsʹk 567 023 34.2 62.7 Zaporizhzhya 98 797 6.0 67.7 Luhansʹk 292 764 17.7 75.5 Kharkiv 192 179 11.6 56.7 Source: data of Ministry of Social Policy of Ukraine

Source: National Monitoring System Report on the Situation of Internally Displaced Persons carried out by IOM in cooperation with the UCSR and funded by the EU: http://www.iom.org.ua/sites/default/files/nms_report_march_2017_eng_new_0.pdf

UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms Households of IDPs with and without Households of Ukraine with and without children, % children in 2016, % With children 0%

30% with 1 child with 1 child Without With Without With children; children; children; 29,2% children; with 2 children 50.4% 49.5% with 2 children 61.8% 38.2% 15% 8% with 3 or more 5% with 3 or more children 1% children

Source: National Monitoring System Report on the Situation of Internally Displaced Source: Social and Persons carried out by IOM in cooperation with the UCSR and funded by the EU: Demographic Characteristics of Households of Ukraine in http://www.iom.org.ua/sites/default/files/nms_report_march_2017_eng_new_0.pdf 2016 according to Household Budget Survey of Ukraine UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms Distribution of IDPs by self-assessment of financial situation of household, %

0.8 0.4 1.0 100%

90% 20.5 19.1 29.6 80%

70% 33.7 60% 40.1 50% 45.9 40%

30% 46.8 20% 38.6

10% 23.5

0% March-June 2016 March, 2016 March, 2017 Enough for food, clothing, shoes, and other purchases. Have savings

Enough for food, necessary clothing, footwear, basic needs

Enough for food,not enough for other purposes

Have to economize even on food

Status % Full employment (working full-time and full-week) 27.6 Not working retirement pensioner 20.6 Does not work, receives a pension or assistance (disability, 16.7 maternity leave) Unemployed without unemployment benefits 10.6 Part-time employment 7.5 Unemployed (housewife, student) 7.4 Unemployed with unemployment benefits 6.4 Self-employed 1.4 Other 1.0 Working retirement pensioner 0.8 Total 100.0

UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms Changes in the structure of employment activities of IDPs after moving, %

before displacement after displacement

UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms Key Findings

UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms The conflict, that began in 2014 provoked significant socio-demographic and economic losses:

 During 2014-2016, consumer prices increased 2 times in all regions; real incomes (in 2010 prices) in Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovs'k and Zaporizhzhya oblasts decreased by 40%, in Donetsk oblast by 50% and in Luhans’k oblast by 60%;

 The volume of Gross Regional Product (GRP) for 2014-2015, has significantly decreased in the Luhans’k oblast by 70%, in Donetsk by nearly 60%, in Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovs’k oblasts by 13% and in Zaporizhzhya by 5%.

 The number of enterprises has sharply reduced, especially large and medium- sized businesses. Luhans’k oblast lost 70% of total enterprises and Donetsk almost 60%. In Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhya oblasts the number of companies decreased by 3%; enterprises in Dnipropetrovs'k oblast were affected the least, and due to development of small businesses, the total number of businesses in this oblast slightly increased (by 1.4%).

UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms  Key changes in foreign economic activity: the decline in total exports was caused by a change in its structure and direction of exports. In almost all oblasts (except Donetsk), the share of groups 1-4 (products of animal and vegetable origin, oils and food) in total exports has increased. Destinations of export were reoriented from CIS countries to the EU, but this reorientation has not compensated for past exports volumes.

 The total population losses in the 5 regions for the 2013-1016 years were 272,000 people. The highest loss of population have Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts (2.5%). In other oblasts the population decreased by about 1% because of natural reduction.

 Population losses resulted in a reduction of the labor force and employed population. The level of economic activity decreased, especially in Donetsk oblast (by 7%).

 Economic problems led to a significant increase of poverty: for 2014-2015, poverty by actual cost of living has increased in Luhansk oblast from 20% to 74%, in Donetsk from 22% to 65% and in Dnipropetrovs'k from 27% to 60%;

 Since the beginning of conflict, the oblasts hosted 74% of IDPs (1.2 million people). The largest number of IDPs were hosted in Donetsk (34% of the total) and Lugansk (18%) oblasts. A considerable part of IDPs integrated into the host community, but the problem of housing and employment remain many of them unsolved.

UCSR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms Overview of the Impact of Conflict on Socio-economic Situation

Prices has Macro and demographic indicators (GDP, increased two infrastructure, Export/Import, investments, inflation) times in all regions of Ukraine

Big enterprise (29%) Government Unemployment Bodies % has increased by Medium enterprise (44%) 5,2% in Donetsk and 9.8% in

Small enterprise (15%) Luhansk impacts all levels all impacts

Micro enterprise (12%) Unemployment Individual entrepreneurs Increased vulnerability:

Conflict Conflict Poverty of the population has Household level (pensions, economic active population, children) increased: 36,2% in Ukraine HH level indicators (demographic indicators, income, expenditure, 44% in Donetsk poverty, food security etc) 56,6% in Luhansk Thank you!

UCR Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms 76 AGENDA

The next regular meeting is tentatively scheduled for Thursday 29 June, 14:00