WWW.IPSOS-MORI.COM/INDYREF2014 Contents

MAKING SENSE IPSOS MORI INDEPENDENCE OF SOCIETY

2. 11. 24. The odds are still against Scottish Scottish universities and Some of our Services independence, but every vote will count reputation management

3. 13. Engagement not electioneering should Public service reform and public opinion be the focus in schools 15. 4. The acceptability of carrots Let’s hear it for the ‘Don’t Knows’ 17. 6. Minimum pricing and underage drinkers Why it is hard to see much hope for Salmond and his political dream 18. The complexities of the impact of 7. ‘Bedroom Tax’ Business leaders and the prospect of independence 20. Measuring fuel poverty in Scotland 8. How much does the referendum 21. question matter? Labels, damn labels and statistics

9. 22. What impact will national identity have on Where are all the cyclists? the outcome of the referendum

Independence The odds are still against Scottish independence, but every vote will count

New Statesman

27 June 2013 Mark Diffley Ipsos MORI Scotland

Polls of the Scottish electorate currently The main reason to suggest some shifts in Those who tell us that they are undecided show a healthy lead for those arguing opinion though is what our polls highlight or may change their minds are more against independence. But even if public about the number of people who are evenly split, with 38 per cent leaning opinion doesn’t shift significantly in the still to make up their minds. ‘Undecided’ towards Yes and 43 per cent towards months ahead, every vote will be crucial voters come in three categories: those No. The remainder cannot be even gently in determining Scotland’s constitutional who tell us they may not vote if there were swayed either way at the moment. future after the referendum. a referendum tomorrow (25 per cent of adults in our latest poll from May, including So, assuming undecided voters do not With Holyrood about to go into recess, 2 per cent who tell us they definitely will begin switching to ‘Yes’ in significant it’s clear that if the referendum were held not vote), those who would vote but are numbers in the coming months, the tomorrow there would likely be a clear undecided (7 per cent) and those who debate may begin to switch from who victory for those arguing for Scotland to lean towards one side but tell us they will win the referendum to the margin remain in the UK. Once we get back from may change their minds before polling of victory and what that means for the summer break, there will be a year left day (12 per cent). Taken together, this Scotland’s constitutional future. for both sides to make their case. represents over four in ten Scots whose vote remains up for grabs and who will Our polling suggests that a majority of For those of us keenly watching every become an increasingly important group Scots want some form of constitutional detail of the debate, it was surprising as the referendum comes into clear view. change. For instance, our June 2012 to read the First Minister’s interview in survey showed 29 per cent in support last week’s New Statesman in which he This said, at present the odds remain of the status quo, while more than two- declared: “This is the phoney war. This is firmly stacked in favour of the No thirds of voters (68 per cent) supported not the campaign.” To some extent, he’s campaign. This is because, although either full independence (27 per cent) right, and all sides expect some movement there are significant numbers of or the ‘Devo-Plus’ proposals for greater in public opinion in the months ahead. undecided and uncommitted voters, powers being devolved to the Scottish there is nothing in our polling to suggest Parliament. Salmond’s optimism is born out of a that they are currently leaning towards number of factors. He believes that on- voting Yes in sufficient numbers to make We do not yet know what will happen to going austerity measures, particularly a decisive difference to the overall result. Scotland’s constitutional position in the cuts in welfare spending, will push voters event of a No vote next year. But it is towards voting ‘Yes’. He will also have an In fact, analysis of these groups provides possible that more radical and significant eye on the outlook for the 2015 general more comfort to those in the No camp. changes become more likely in a closely election and hope that next year’s Among those who tells us they are contested vote. That’s why every vote will Commonwealth Games in Glasgow may uncertain to vote in the referendum, be significant and strongly fought for in engender feelings of Scottish nationalism one in five, 20 per cent, would vote the run up to the referendum. in the same way that last year’s Olympics Yes while half, 49 per cent, would vote enhanced pride in ‘Britishness’ among No, suggesting that a campaign to many voters. encourage participation is more likely to be beneficial those in favour of Scotland remaining in the UK.

2 Spotlight on Scotland The odds are still against Scottish independence, but every vote will count Engagement not electioneering should be the focus in schools

6 June 2013 Christopher McLean Ipsos MORI Scotland

Following the Scottish Government’s Furthermore, a recent report by the The referendum offers a unique decision to extend the franchise for the Hansard Society underlines the lack of opportunity to encourage engagement independence referendum to 16 and 17 engagement in politics among young among younger people as the outcome year olds, national guidance detailing people. Only 24% of 18-24 year olds will have a fundamental impact on their how teachers should approach the across Britain were interested in politics, futures. It is important that schoolchildren subject of the referendum during lessons down from 42% in 2011, while the are educated about the importance is expected to be published by Education proportion that is certain to vote in an of the referendum and encouraged to Scotland this summer. However, the issue election fell from 22% to 12%. Although participate in the debate on their own of providing information for schoolchildren there is an overall decline in engagement terms. has been at the forefront of the debate this with politics among people of all ages, the week with particular focus on the extent report argues that voting at an early age is The legacy of enabling 16 and 17 year to which the campaigns will attempt to likely to encourage voting in later life. olds to vote in the referendum should influence young voters through schools. not be its impact on the outcome, but Some might argue that there is a life- that it sparks interest in politics that will Young people are unlikely to shape the cycle effect involved and that interest in last a lifetime. outcome since they only make up 4% politics increases as people get older of the electorate, even if they could be and take on greater responsibilities, brainwashed into voting one way or the such as a home and family. However, other. The real danger is that intense analysis conducted by Ipsos MORI on scrutiny and partisan electioneering generational differences suggests that will dissuade teachers and young this is not the case. Taking party affiliation people from participating in the debate. as a proxy for interest, the analysis shows The consequence is that an already that each generation is less likely than the disengaged group could become further generation before to identify themselves alienated from the political process. with a political party. Crucially, it also shows that affiliation does not increase Younger people are far less likely to vote as people get older. This suggests that in the referendum than older people. young people who are apathetic towards Our most recent poll in May found that politics are likely to remain apathetic those aged 35 and over were twice as in later life, which could have severe likely as those aged 18-24 to be certain implications for the future of voting in to vote (80% compared to 41%). In the elections across the UK. same poll, only 29% of 18-24 years olds said they would be certain to vote in an immediate election compared with 69% of those aged 25 and over. The recent survey by University did little to suggest that 14-17 year olds would be any more likely to vote as only 44% said they were very likely to take part in the referendum.

Engagement not electioneering should be the focus in schools Spoltight on Scotland 3 Let’s hear it for the ‘Don’t Knows’

21 May 2013 Steven Hope Ipsos MORI Scotland

It’s an old joke – I used to be indecisive But that’s what seems to be the case. In terms of social and demographic but now I’m not so sure. And in the biggest Our latest poll, carried out for The Times characteristics, the undecided are almost constitutional decision most people in between 29 April and 5 May, found that indistinguishable from the rest of the Scotland will be asked to participate in, a 10% of respondents who said they were population. The key thing that stands little uncertainty is to be expected. certain to vote in the referendum were out, and this has been noted by many undecided about whether they would analysts already, is that women less likely Analysis of survey results tends to pay little vote ‘Yes’ or ‘No’. This pattern has been to say they would vote Yes. Across the attention to uncertainty. We look at party consistent in each of the previous four combined sample from five waves of support among people who are certain to waves of the Scottish Public Opinion SPOM – a total sample of 3,700 adults vote. We look at people’s intention to vote Monitor (SPOM) – our quarterly omnibus who said they were certain to vote in the ‘Yes’ or ‘No’, hardly noticing the people of Scottish opinion. referendum – the Yes campaign would who have yet to make up their mind. get the support of 43% of men but only Maybe it’s because there are so few of But when the data were published, 27% of women. them and it seems like opinions have one slide showing referendum voting hardened. But more than a year away intentions by party support suggested But this does not translate directly into from the referendum perhaps we should something else. In line with the tendency opposition to independence. be surprised and a little disappointed to only show those with clear opinions, that there’s not more uncertainty. At least the chart only showed ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ There seems to be a clear link to party people who are uncertain might ask support. You had to calculate that support at least to the extent that apart questions and debate to learn and form among SNP supporters 14% were from SNP supporters, there is little an opinion rather than just to be louder undecided, compared with 8% of Labour variation within party blocs. Looking at than the other side. supporters. In comparison, Conservative Labour supporters we see that 12% and Lib Dem supporters seemed to be of men and 10% of women say they Of course conviction has its place and solidly following the party’s position would vote Yes. Also that 12% of Labour- if you were looking for people certain against independence – 95% and 94% supporting women are undecided about supporting independence you respectively say they will vote ‘No’ – with compared with 8% of Labour men. Not might think that SNP supporters would be only 2% of each undecided. much difference. It seems that Labour the place to start. You perhaps wouldn’t men are just a little more set in their think that of all the people saying that So who is undecided? There aren’t many position than women. they were unsure about whether or not of them in a single wave of SPOM so Scotland should be an independent we’ve combined the five most recent country, more than half would be SNP waves to give a big enough sample for supporters. An SNP supporter undecided some analysis. about independence? Surely, that’s a bit like a Green being unsure about global warming (or a bear wondering … well, what else can bears wonder about?).

4 Spotlight on Scotland Let’s hear it for the don’t knows But there is a much greater gap between But we’ll leave that to the factions. So both the ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ campaigns men and women who support the SNP. Soberly, it suggests two things. First, need to be wary of over-simplifying the Over three-quarters (77%) of SNP that while the SNP seems to have been parties as unified blocs of opinion. Labour supporting men say they would vote Yes in successful in attracting support for its may be formally in the No campaign but 1 a referendum but only 65% of women who policies in the Scottish Parliament – the in 9 of its supporters intends to vote Yes. would support the SNP in elections to the freeze on Council Tax, free bus passes, Similarly, the SNP may be the party most Scottish Parliament are likely to support its tuition fees and prescriptions – and closely associated with the call for a Yes defining policy in the referendum – a gap translating that into voting intentions for vote but about 1 in 6 of its supporters of 12 percentage points. Among female Scottish Parliamentary elections, this plan to vote ‘No’. Instead of trying to SNP supporters, 19% say they would hasn’t yet translated into solid support convince the “opposition”, each would vote ‘No’ (12% of men) and 17% are for its core policy of independence, do well to look closer to home and try to ‘Undecided’ (12% of men). particularly among its female supporters understand what it is about their policy where 36% say they would vote ‘No’ or or their contribution to the debate that How you might interpret this depends are ‘Undecided’. makes the party’s own supporters want on your viewpoint. There is the tribal to vote with the other side. line: what hope is there of a ‘Yes’ vote Second, and more generally, across all if the ‘Yes’ campaign can’t even win the the parties, 30% of adults who support support of many people who should be parties whose official position is to on ‘their side’. The flip side is that the job support independence say they will vote of convincing the undecided just got a lot No or are undecided. Among supporters easier – they are halfway there already. of parties whose official position is to It’s a relatively small step from supporting vote No, 20% say they will vote ‘Yes’ or the SNP for the Scottish Parliament to are ‘Undecided’. voting Yes in the referendum.

Let’s hear it for the don’t knows Spoltight on Scotland 5 Why it is hard to see much hope for Salmond and his political dream

The Times

10 May 2013 Sir Robert Worcester and Mark Diffley Founder of Ipsos MORI and Ipsos MORI Scotland

The prospect of a ‘Yes’ vote in next year’s Once again, support for independence So, where now for the two campaigns? referendum appears to be disappearing, among women lags far behind support An historical perspective on previous as those who are certain to vote and among men. A little under a quarter, 23%, campaigns highlights the challenges have made up their minds now say they of committed female voters now support faced by ‘Yes Scotland’. Nationalists are against independence by about two independence, down by five points since often cite the remarkable turnaround in to one. February, suggesting that the higher the SNP’s fortunes before the Holyrood campaign profile of Deputy First Minister election of 2011 as evidence that There are still nearly 500 days until the Nicola Sturgeon has yet to persuade more their dream of independence remains vote, and it’s true that ‘a week is a long women to back the nationalist cause. achievable. However, the poll leads time in politics’, according to former enjoyed by Labour in advance of that Prime Minister Harold Wilson. But when And there is nothing to suggest that those election were far less than those enjoyed there is such a gap and it’s running in the who remain uncertain whether to vote and by the ‘No’ camp in our new poll. And wrong direction, it’s hard to see much undecided about which way to vote in the there is nothing to suggest that the hope for Alex Salmond’s realisation of referendum are leaning heavily towards nationalists will have the advantages of his dream. supporting independence. Among those an ineffectual and discredited opposition who tell us that they are not certain to which the SNP benefited from in 2011. A third of Scots who tell us they will vote vote and who have not definitely decided and have definitely made up their minds, how they will vote, 16% would support Still, remember that at the time of the say Scotland should be an independent independence while 33% wish to remain 1975 EEC referendum, Gallup found country while two-thirds disagree. in the UK. that by % the British public intended to This two to one opposition to Scotland vote ‘out’, not ‘in’, and six months later becoming an independent country These last few weeks have been difficult the referendum vote was 67% to 33% in represents a five-per cent swing in favour for the ‘Yes’ campaign as the UK favour of staying in. But then all the major of support for staying in the UK since our government has stepped up its efforts national newspapers, the trade unions last poll in February. to persuade Scots to vote ‘No’ in 2014. and big business were in favour of a yes In particular the debate around the vote; it’s not like that in Scotland today, Of those in the 18-24 age group, half are currency options in the event of a ‘Yes’ and therefore opinion is less likely to supportive of independence, compared vote was widely seen as being beneficial swing in favour of independence. to just 27% of those aged 55 or over. for the ‘No’ campaign. And the recent Young people are significantly less likely debate around state pension provision in So, while we are still a long way out from than older people to turn out and vote an independent Scotland may also have the vote and events may change opinion, on the day of the referendum, so the had some negative consequences on it is clear that nationalists face a serious value of this advantage to nationalists public opinion as far as the nationalists challenge in the months ahead. And is diminished. As a rule, ‘grey’ votes are are concerned. there will need to be an unprecedented four times as powerful as the youth vote, change in public mood for their dream of as there are twice as many of them, and independence to be realised. they are twice as likely to vote.

6 Spotlight on Scotland Why it is hard to see much hope for Salmond and his political dream Business leaders and the prospect of independence

Business Scotland

8 May 2013 Mark Diffley Ipsos MORI Scotland

Hardly a week goes by without the media While the reluctance to make public Our 2012 survey also found that three reporting the views of a well-known announcements, particularly at this stage quarters of senior business decision business figure on the forthcoming of the campaign, is understandable, our makers in Scotland had yet to begin referendum on independence. Whether polling illustrates that the single most planning for the possibility of Scotland it’s Jim McColl pledging his support for important issue to voters ahead of the becoming an independent country. This ‘Yes Scotland’, Michelle Mone threatening referendum will be around business and may also reflect the possibly conservative to move her business south in the event the economy. And, of course, it is decisions outlook of many business leaders. It of a ‘Yes’ vote or Sir Tom Farmer arguing made by large employers and business may also reflect a view that, according for the detailed debate to be postponed figures in Scotland that will, in part, drive to polling evidence over many years, until nearer the date of the referendum, the economic future of the country. there is a greater likelihood of Scotland we seem to have a keen appetite for staying within the UK than there is of reading the latest deliberations from the Conducting surveys is one way a vote for independence. Although business community in advance of next round the reluctance to make public our latest general public polling in year’s vote. announcements, offering the opportunity February showed a marginal increase to give an entirely confidential view. When in support for independence, all recent For the two campaigns at the heart Ipsos MORI last took the temperature of polls and a historical view perspective of the debate, endorsements from senior decision-makers in medium sized of polls illustrates the challenge faced business leaders, like those from and large organisations in the autumn of by ‘Yes Scotland’ if it is going to win celebrities, are huge prizes. Each time 2012, we found that over half thought that the referendum. The other reason for a well-known entrepreneur or business independence would worsen prospects an apparent lack of preparation for the leader publicly states any opinion on the for their business and seven in ten possibility of independence may also perceived economic effects of a vote thought it would have a negative impact simply represent business priorities, in for independence, one side or the other on the Scottish economy as a whole. other words most business leaders are takes to the airwaves or to their laptops, running their core businesses rather trumpeting these views as proof either On the face of it this seems like a pretty than planning for the possibility of that Scotland would be more prosperous definite statement. But there are a independence. as an independent country, or that the couple of notes of caution. Firstly, the economy will go to hell in a handcart if survey was conducted a full two years The referendum is still over a year and a we separate from the rest of the UK. before the referendum and before the half away and the detailed debate around detailed debate about the economic the future of Scotland’s economy and Perhaps this at least partly explains why consequences of independence has business environment is still to be had. so many business leaders and large taken place. Secondly, the survey may, in We may never publicly know the views employers are so reluctant to state their part, reflect a natural conservative stance of many of Scotland’s leading business opinion. What would they gain from such of many business leaders, who prefer figures and companies but further public pronouncements and would their dealing in certainty than perceived risk. research will throw light on the overall views really affect the outcome anyway? In advance of the first Holyrood elections views of businesses of all sizes. And the in 1999, our survey of senior business decisions and actions of the business figures in Scotland revealed that only a community will continue to be crucial in quarter expected devolution to yield an determining Scotland’s economic future, improved business environment. Yet in the regardless of the result next year. period since, it is widely acknowledged that much of the business community has benefited from devolution.

Business leaders and the prospect of independence Spoltight on Scotland 7 How much does the referendum question matter?

The Times

5 February 2013 Lorraine Murray Ipsos MORI Scotland

In the autumn of 2014, we will be asked Note that testing can only examine The question recommended by the what is, perhaps, the most important the perceptions of the neutrality of a Electoral Commission and accepted question in our democratic history. question. There is no way to test whether by the Scottish Government - “Should The wording probably won’t affect the a referendum question actually is neutral. Scotland be an independent country?” - outcome. We all know what the question Large scale surveys of the population has been thoroughly tested with voters. is about. And most of us already know could be used to test different versions People understand what they are being what our answer will be. of a question and see which wording was asked. The question does its job. It can more likely to lead to a particular result do no more. What’s needed now is more So if the question wording is unlikely and how much difference it was likely information and debate on the real issues to affect the outcome, does it matter? to make. But there is no way of knowing so that Scotland can better decide how it Yes. It matters that arguments about the the ‘true’ result because all we can do is wants to answer. wording of the question do not detract ask the question in different ways – all of from the debate about the real issues. which are potentially flawed or biased And it matters that people have faith in in some way. It’s true that a version that the democratic process and accept the led to a wildly different result from other outcome as being a fair reflection of the versions (or from recent polling on the will of the Scottish people. It matters that issue) would seem suspect, but assuming the question doesn’t matter. that the wording isn’t blatantly leading and makes a relatively small difference, For a referendum question to work it we would have no way of knowing which must pass two tests. Firstly, voters must of our versions came closest to the ‘real’ understand what they are being asked level of support/opposition. and find it easy to answer the question in a way that matches their views on the issue. Secondly, voters must perceive the question to be neutral and not to encourage a particular response. Thorough testing with voters is the only way to determine whether a question works.

8 Spotlight on Scotland How much does the referendum question matter? What impact will national identity have on the outcome of the referendum

Politics.co.uk

13 September 2012 Christopher McLean Ipsos MORI Scotland

Recent polls have shown a decline in A closer look at the data provides some The link between national identity and support for independence, a trend which hope to both sides of the campaign. attitudes towards independence is many commentators have attributed to the particularly clear cut when explaining impact of the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee For the nationalists, the relatively high partisan positions. Those who consider and Team GB’s performance at the proportion of Scots describing themselves themselves as exclusively Scottish are London Olympics. It’s been argued that as Scottish not British between 1999 and far more likely to vote ‘Yes’, while those the consequent promotion of ‘Britishness’ 2001 closely followed devolution and the who consider themselves equally British has strengthened support for the Union. opening of the Scottish parliament. This and Scottish are far more likely to vote would suggest that the campaign for ‘No’. These positions will be difficult to Likewise, some have argued that the devolution went some way to instilling a change and are likely to become even SNP’s decision to hold the referendum greater sense of ‘Scottishness’ among more entrenched as the referendum in 2014 is based on an assumption that the population. Could a similar campaign approaches. the combination of the Commonwealth ahead of the referendum do likewise? Games being held in Glasgow and The group which will be of greatest the 700th anniversary of the Battle of The unionist camp can take heart from importance to both camps, is made up of Bannockburn will generate an increased the fact that, minor fluctuations aside, those who describe themselves as more sense of ‘Scottishness’, boosting the the trend over the last ten years suggests Scottish than British. Attitudes towards chances of a ‘Yes’ vote. that Scots are becoming less inclined independence are finely balanced among to consider themselves Scottish rather this group: 45% oppose independence, This begs the question: what impact will than British. This may be the result of 38% support it and 12% are undecided. public feelings of national identity have Scots becoming more comfortable with The proportion of Scots in this group on the outcome of the referendum? the constitutional settlement following (around a third of the adult population) devolution. Our polling consistently shows has been relatively stable, particularly in Evidence does suggest a link between a stronger preference among Scots for the last ten years, which suggests they national identity and attitudes towards further devolution rather than outright are less likely to be swayed either way independence. Our most recent poll, independence, which may work in the by nationalistic sentiments. They are also conducted in June, found two-thirds unionists’ favour if they can articulate exactly the group that both sides need to of those who described themselves the advantages of devolved government win over in order to secure victory. as Scottish not British support within the union. independence, while over three-quarters of those who described themselves as However, it would be dangerous for equally British and Scottish oppose it. either side to concentrate too strongly Indeed, trend data from the past 20 years on accentuating either ‘Scottishness’ or shows that fluctuations in the proportion of ‘Britishness’ in the forthcoming campaign. the population who consider themselves Scottish and not British reflect changes in support for independence.

What impact will national pride have on the outcome of the referendum Spoltight on Scotland 9 Making sense of society Scottish universities and reputation management

Scottish Policy Now

13 July 2013 Sara Davidson Ipsos MORI Scotland

March saw the publication of the Times More generally, we’ve found evidence that The Scottish university fee structure has Higher Education World Reputation international awareness and perceptions furthered detracted from the country’s Rankings. Only seven UK institutions of Scotland as a study destination have appeal among the RUK applicant market were ranked in the top 50 and, of these, been positively affected by key Scottish specifically. The fact that English, Welsh only one – the University of Edinburgh – Government strategies over the years, and Northern Irish students are charged was Scottish (ranked 46th). particularly the Fresh Talent: Working in tuition fees while Scottish and EU students Scotland scheme and the current policy are not has been interpreted by some The Russell Group, the main representative of offering free tuition to EU nationals. RUK applicants as a tacit signal that they body for the UK’s leading research are not welcome in Scottish universities. universities, responded to the Rankings On the other hand, it is also clear from by pointing out that UK institutions “punch our work that, for the large proportion of A number of developments on the horizon above their weight” and “do more with non-Scottish domiciled academics and have the potential to further shape less”, outperforming most rivals relative prospective/current students, Scotland perceptions of Scottish institutions, both to expenditure. Still, there is no doubt that remains something of an unknown in the rest of the UK and further afield. the Times data will have come as a major quantity and this significantly undermines Arguably, the most significant of these disappointment to all those charged with the potential appeal of even its best is the result of the 2014 independence marketing UK institutions – and Scottish institutions. Even among ‘Rest of UK’ referendum. In an independent Scotland, ones more especially – who over recent (RUK) audiences, self-reported familiarity RUK students may have the status of EU years have been battling harder than ever with Scotland is often astonishingly low, students and therefore could be entitled to attract a greater share of the global with perceptions of the country tending to free tuition. While this could increase market amidst increased competition to reflect (largely negative) national significantly the appeal of Scottish from the US, East Asia and Europe. So, stereotypes – for example, that Scotland institutions to those students, it could also, why aren’t Scottish institutions performing is predominantly rural; that its towns as Riddell et al have recently highlighted, better in reputational terms and is there and cities are quiet/quaint with little in result in Scots students being squeezed more that can be done to address this? the way of night-life; that the Scottish out of their home institutions . Accordingly, accent is hard to understand; and that there has been some suggestion of Research conducted by Ipsos MORI the weather is consistently cold and wet. reserving quotas for Scottish domiciled Scotland over many years has provided Among some applicants there is also a students or of introducing a separate some possible answers to this question. perception that Scottish degrees are less admissions system for EU students, On the one hand, we have found good highly regarded by employers than those involving an administration fee. Clearly, brand recognition, among international obtained south of the border. however, these options could have academics and prospective / current downsides in terms of Scotland’s UK and students alike, of some of Scotland’s global competitiveness. ancient institutions; particularly Edinburgh. (Rankings like those produced by The Times appear to have been key in fostering this recognition, along with promotional efforts on the part of individual institutions and word of mouth advocacy).

Scottish universities and reputation management Spoltight on Scotland 11 An independent Scotland could also Against this backdrop, it will be more herald changes to research funding in important than ever for institutions to Scottish universities. Currently, Scottish continually take stock of how they are academics compete with their peers perceived by key external audiences – across the UK for research grants from from prospective undergraduates and the Research Councils and, indeed, have postgraduates to academic staff and traditionally received a disproportionate employers – and to ensure that their share of those grants. Universities branding, marketing and recruitment Scotland and individual Scottish university strategies are clearly informed by this principals have expressed concern that if evidence; as well as wider intelligence on Scottish institutions were to lose access target markets’ needs and expectations. to these funds under independence, they At the same time, and given the significant may find it difficult to retain and attract role that perceptions of Scotland as a the highest calibre academics (and by country appear to have on evaluations of extension students) from across the globe. individual Scottish institutions, there is a strong case to be made for greater cross- Alongside these potential challenges, institutional (and, indeed, cross-sectoral) a host of other developments are likely working towards common objectives. to impact on the attractiveness of Scotland’s HE sector over the coming years; in particular, the recent changes to international students visas, yet greater competition from global competitors and, on the domestic front, the introduction of the Curriculum for Excellence and outcome agreements – which both raise important strategic questions concerning the role of universities in 21st century Scotland.

12 Spotlight on Scotland Scottish universities and reputation management Public service reform and public opinion

7 May 2013 Mark Diffley Ipsos MORI Scotland

Reform to public services in Scotland is In accepting the Christie report, the Moreover, when we compare Scotland coming. When the Christie Commission current Scottish Government has stated with the rest of the UK, we can see published its 2011 report, setting out its commitment to shifting resources different attitudes to how public services how the welfare state was facing its towards preventative action, better should be delivered and funded. For most serious challenges since inception, partnership working between service example while the appetite for increasing reform began in earnest. delivery bodies and enhanced reporting taxes to pay for additional spending on of public service performance. But what health, education and social benefits has The report, accepted in its entirety by about more radical reform in terms of declined in both Scotland and England the Scottish Government, outlined how how services are planned and delivered? during the 2000s, it remains an option increased demand for public services, more favoured in Scotland, with 40% driven in the main by an ageing Ideas about market-oriented management supporting such a policy move, compared population, has combined with the of public services, adopted by UK to 30% of the public in England. ongoing squeeze on public spending to governments of all shades since the create these challenges. 1980s, have not gained traction with When it comes the delivery of public devolved administrations in Holyrood. In services, the strength of public opinion These issues are highlighted by part this is down to these administrations in Scotland opposed to radical change predictions that the population of reflecting the significantly different views becomes clearer. Scots have clearly pensionable age is set to rise by 26% of the public in Scotland, compared to different views from their neighbours between 2010 and 2035, while the attitudes south of the border. about how public services should be working age population is set to rise by delivered in order to maximise value for only 7% over the same period. At the Put simply, Scots view public services money, understand what service users same time, it is estimated that the Scottish as hugely important, are increasingly need, provide care and compassion public sector budget is likely to suffer a satisfied with their delivery and are and provide a professional and reliable £39 billion shortfall between 2010/11 and wedded to the current model of these service. 2025/26, the year when the budget will services being delivered by public finally return to 2010 levels in real terms. bodies. According to the 2011 Scottish On each of these performance criteria, Household Survey, 88% of adults in Scots are clear that public authorities are Policymakers tasked with implementing Scotland are satisfied with local health best placed to provide public services. changes to public services therefore services, up from 81% in 2007. Similarly, Moreover, public opinion surveys illustrate face considerable challenges. As well levels of satisfaction with local schools that the appetite for the involvement of the as likely resistance to significant change rose by 6-points over the same period, private sector in the provision of public from within the organisations who deliver from 79% in 2007 to 85% in 2011. services is significantly higher among the services, a range of evidence from public in England and Wales than it is in opinion surveys highlights that the public Scotland. too is likely to resist significant changes to the status quo and will be difficult to win over to radical reform.

Public service reform and public opinion Spoltight on Scotland 13 When asked which sector would be best This survey data has significant at providing public services that best implications for policymakers in Scotland. understand what service users need, Any moves to ‘privatise’ the delivery of over half of Scots (54%) believe public public services in Scotland is likely to be authorities do the best job while just met with much sterner public opposition 11% believe that the private sector would than is the case south of the border. do a better job, compared to figures While this may not be on the immediate of 30% for public authorities and 16% political agenda, it is clear that the public in favour of the private sector among is very much supportive of the status quo adults in England and Wales. Similarly, in terms of how these vital services are 58% of Scots believe that public bodies provided and delivered. would provide the most professional and reliable public services, compared to The current political discourse in Scotland 19% who would favour the private sector is dominated by next year’s independence in that regard. This contrasts with figures referendum. But regardless of the of 30% for public bodies and 29% for the outcome of that vote, and the results of private sector among adults in England the Westminster and Holyrood elections of and Wales. 2015 and 2016, the need for changing the public services landscape will be an ever Even when asked to consider which present challenge. Whoever is charged sector would provide the best quality with delivering reforms will need to be service for the money, a measure where wary of the strength of public opinion one might expect public bodies to do and work hard to ensure that the public is less well, 50% of Scots believe the public brought along every step of the way. sector would provide the best public services, compared to 17% in favour of the private sector. Again, this contrasts significantly with England and Wales, where 27% believe the private sector would perform best on this measure, while 25% preferred public bodies.

14 Spotlight on Scotland Public service reform and public opinion The acceptability of carrots

1 November 2012 Jane Eunson and Lorraine Murray Ipsos MORI Scotland

Using financial incentives to encourage LEVELS OF OPPOSITION/ SUPPORT FOR behaviour change raises questions PAYING PEOPLE TO CHANGE DIFFERENT BEHAVIOURS about their effectiveness - but also about their acceptability in the face of moral OPPOSE Scottish adults (n=497), interviewed by telephone 7-14 June 2012 SUPPORT concerns. We look briefly at the current Lose weight evidence base before exploring the views 58% 31% of the Scottish public on whether, and Take more exercise when, they should be used. 57% 33%

Come off drugs One way that public bodies try to 55% 39% encourage better, healthier lives is by Give up smoking using financial incentives. People who 54% 35% make positive steps to change their Breastfeed behaviour - stopping smoking or taking 47% 32% more exercise classes for example - are Give up smoking when pregnant rewarded with cash or vouchers. As with 44% 48% any intervention, incentive schemes need Attend parenting classes to be shown to be effective before they 44% 42% are implemented more widely. Incentive schemes, however, face the additional BUT THEY RAISE MORAL WHAT DO THE SCOTTISH task of overcoming the moral concerns CONCERNS PUBLIC THINK? of some sections of the public. However, even if incentive schemes Results from our recent survey show show long-term results, governments that Scottish adults are more likely to INCENTIVES CAN WORK still have to convince some of us that oppose than support schemes which – AT LEAST IN THE SHORT-TERM they are acceptable. Criticisms include involve paying people to encourage them Some incentive schemes show impressive it being an unfair use of public money to to change their behaviour. However, as short-term results but several studies ‘reward’ people for their previous ‘bad’ the chart below illustrates, there is less show disappointing results a year or so behaviour (e.g. smoking, over-eating or opposition to some things than others. after the intervention. While the literature drug-taking) and concerns about the Opinion is divided on paying people to identifies some features of incentive potential negative effect on our intrinsic give up smoking when pregnant (49% schemes that appear to impact on their motivations – could we become a society support and 44% oppose) or attend success, a greater understanding of how driven by the need for a reward and less parenting classes (42% support and 44% incentives influence behaviour is needed willing or able to do things for our own oppose). For other behaviours, higher to maximise their effectiveness. It does, sake? There are also those who feel such proportions oppose than support, with however, appear that incentives have the schemes are morally wrong because the highest levels of opposition being potential to act as a ‘hook’, encouraging they amount to bribery or coercion. for paying people to lose weight (58% people to engage with services and oppose) or take more exercise (57% make short-term changes. Professionals oppose). It seems there is a little less then have the chance to work with them to opposition when there is a direct benefit tackle the root causes of their behaviour to children. and help them to sustain the changes – an opportunity they must take full advantage of.

The acceptability of carrots Spoltight on Scotland 15 LEVELS OF OPPOSITION/ SUPPORT FOR majority in support of schemes which REWARDING PEOPLE TO CHANGE DIFFERENT BEHAVIOURS ‘reward’ people.

OPPOSE Scottish adults (n=497), interviewed by telephone 7-14 June 2012 SUPPORT But perhaps some of the opposition is

58% Lose weight 31% because people are sceptical of the benefits of such schemes - rather than

57% Take more exercise 33% because they are morally opposed. People who said they were opposed (to

55% Come off drugs 39% paying or rewarding people to change one or more of the behaviours listed) were

54% Give up smoking 35% asked whether their view would change if incentives were found to save the country

47% Breastfeed 32% money overall. This shifted the views of half of those who were initially opposed:

44% Give up smoking when pregnant 48% 26% said they would be more likely to support such schemes and a further 27%

44% Attend parenting classes 42% said they would be more likely to support them for some of the behaviours but not others. The remaining half (47%) said it INCREASE IN SUPPORT WHEN ASKING ABOUT would make no difference. ‘REWARD’ RATHER THAN ‘PAYMENT’ WHERE NEXT? INCREASE Scottish adults (n=497), interviewed by telephone 7-14 June 2012 There is still a way to go before financial 20% Lose weight incentive schemes are recognised as effective mechanisms for behaviour 22% Take more exercise change, with further research required to identify the situations in which they work 25% Come off drugs best and the factors which maximise their long-term effectiveness. And the debate 20% Give up smoking about the morality of such schemes will continue – a minority remain opposed on 20% Breastfeed principle. But the nature of the incentives, what they are called (‘rewards’ rather than 21% Give up smoking when pregnant ‘payments’) and evidence that schemes are cost-effective will make a substantial 12% Attend parenting classes difference to their acceptability in the eyes of the public.

However, the results also show that words ‘payment’ and ‘paying’ replaced the nature of the incentive and the way by ‘reward’ and ‘rewarding’ - descriptions schemes are described affects how which do not necessarily imply the use people respond. Half of our sample of money. As the charts below show, this was asked the same question with the makes a big difference: we now have a

16 Spotlight on Scotland The acceptability of carrots Minimum pricing and underage drinkers

23 October 2012 Carolyn Black Ipsos MORI Scotland

Scotland’s unhealthy relationship with Overall, 13 year olds drank an average Secondly, the impact of the wider debate alcohol is well-documented. In 2010/11, of £6.70 worth of alcohol and 15 year on alcohol use and minimum pricing on there were 38,825 alcohol-related olds drank an average of £8.45 at current consumption will not be measured purely discharges from acute hospitals across prices. With minimum pricing the average in monetary terms. For instance, it may the country (a rate of 695 per 100,000 13 year old drinker would see the cost lead to a change in the wider drinking population) and, in 2009, over three of their consumption increase by 23% culture, making it less acceptable to drink quarters of young offenders said that to £8.25 and 15 year olds would see an to excess, or it may lead to their parents they were drunk at the time of their arrest. increase of £2.01 or 24% more. The key purchasing lower amounts of alcohol, In response, the Scottish Government issue is in estimating the effect of this rise and, consequently, less alcohol would be has introduced a range of measures which looks substantial in proportional available to them. to try and tackle the problem, the most terms but modest in monetary terms. publicised of which has been the recent Would an extra £2 a week act as a It is vital for government and public health passing of legislation to introduce a deterrent to underage drinking? bodies to be able to measure the impact minimum price of 50p per unit of alcohol. of minimum pricing, to evaluate the extent There are two reasons why it is difficult to which it will contribute to improving The potential impacts of minimum pricing to gauge the impact of minimum long-term outcomes for today’s young have been widely discussed in relation pricing without further research being people. Currently, the main problem in to adult drinking. However, it is not only conducted. Firstly, we know from exploring underage drinking is the lack of adults of legal age that will feel the effects SALSUS that a large proportion of information available. Underage drinkers of the new law. What impact will this alcohol consumption by teenagers is cannot be isolated in sales figures legislation have on underage drinkers? paid for by someone else. Indeed, the and there is little empirical evidence survey revealed that around two thirds about where underage drinkers source To explore the financial impacts of of 13 year olds and around a third of 15 their alcohol. Without further data we minimum pricing on teenagers, we used year olds said that they spent nothing cannot make the assumptions required data from the 2010 Scottish Schools on alcohol, even though they reported to provide an answer on the impact of Adolescent Lifestyle and Substance drinking it. For these young people, it minimum pricing among this group. Until Use Survey (SALSUS). This provides seems minimum pricing would have no further research is conducted to establish detailed estimates of the number of units direct effect on alcohol consumption. where underage drinkers get their alcohol of alcohol consumed by 13 year old and from and how they fund it, the impact of 15 year old teenagers in the previous alcohol minimum pricing on underage week. Using this data we calculated the drinkers cannot truly be assessed. average weekly alcohol value both at current prices and with the preferred minimum price of 50p per unit.

Minimum pricing and underage drinkers Spoltight on Scotland 17 The complexities of the impact of ‘Bedroom Tax’

12 October 2012 Steve Treanor Ipsos MORI Scotland

At the recent Scottish Government/ However, in reality it is unlikely to Under-occupation has also been part of COSLA National Homelessness Event, I be a straightforward choice. Analysis some landlords’ letting policies, in order to: was interested to learn what progress had carried out by the Scottish Government been made by local authorities and the suggests that moving all those affected • fill larger void properties which are Housing Options Hubs towards achieving into suitable accommodation simply isn’t in low demand (for example, North the 2012 Homelessness Commitment, possible due to a mismatch between the Lanarkshire Council) since our evaluation earlier this year. sizes of property available and required, • place homeless households without While the progress achieved called for particularly a severe lack of one-bedroom having to incur the costs of placing optimism, attendees were reminded of homes. This reflects a long standing them into temporary or emergency the potential challenges posed by the strategy of building larger properties to accommodation (for example, South forthcoming Housing Benefit Reform. ensure the sustainability of households Ayrshire Council) and communities. • support wider objectives around The central aspect of the reform is the health, crime and education. For introduction of a new size criterion which Even among those for whom moving example, the SFHA’s report on the means that from April 2013 any working is an option, the decision to move is impact of Welfare Reforms noted age household will have their housing unlikely to be based purely on financial that Hillhead Housing Association benefit reduced if they live in social considerations. The interaction between have an allocations policy which rented accommodation that is considered people and their homes is complex. The allows each child aged 14 years of too large for their needs. The rationale properties in which we live are much more the same sex a separate bedroom. is to improve work incentives, reduce than simply a roof over our heads. There This recognises that children of that reliance on benefits and encourage are emotional and social dimensions age will be preparing for exams and social landlords to use their housing to the relationship and people may not will need space to study. stock efficiently. willingly move from existing support networks such as friends, neighbours and What impact, if any, will the removal of The choice for those affected is either family. Further, households may have good this degree of flexibility in lettings policies to make up the shortfall in their rent or reasons for under-occupying their homes. have on individual households, landlords move to a smaller property, potentially in For example, separated parents may and communities? Previous research a different local authority area. Affected have an additional room to accommodate has identified links between housing households will be offered financial overnight stays as part of the access and physical and mental health, crime incentives to move, while those who stay arrangements of their child(ren). It won’t and education but the exact impact of may run the risk of not being able to be easy for social landlords to encourage housing benefit changes on these areas is afford their rent, falling into arrears and those affected to move. Similarly, there is extremely difficult to predict and measure. potentially losing their home. unlikely to be many households renting out Further, it is very much dependent on a “spare” room. the current situation in which moving households find themselves. For example, having settled accommodation, close and supportive neighbours, friends, family, social interaction, social participation and engagement within local communities and the extent to which people are satisfied with their residential neighbourhood are all strong positive influences on mental wellbeing.

18 Spotlight on Scotland The complexity of the impact of ‘bedroom tax’ All of these factors can take years to Tracking the full impact of the changes develop and the removal of some, if losing will need a longitudinal design with both housing benefit forces them to move, may primary survey and qualitative data well result in lower levels of wellbeing. collection from landlords and tenants and analysis of administrative data held There is a large degree of uncertainly by landlords. This will capture both the around exactly how Housing Benefit economic and social impacts. It will Reform will impact on individual ensure that the breadth and depth of households, landlords and communities. issues are captured and identify best Scottish Government analysts estimate practice in how landlords have tried to that 95,000 households could be mitigate the effects. affected and although this analysis did not estimate the potential social impacts Capturing accurate baseline measures of of changes, it acknowledged that “The key indicators before the changes come social costs of the policy in terms of the into effect is crucial so that changes can potential impact … on health, crime and be monitored. Our colleagues in England, education outcomes may be significant”. in collaboration with Cambridge Centre for Housing and Planning Research, at Efforts are being made to mitigate the the University of Cambridge, are currently potential effects of the changes but the collecting baseline data as part of a impact will only become known following project to assess the impact of Welfare the introduction of the changes in 2013. Reform on housing association tenants Therefore, a clear strategy for monitoring in England, on behalf of and evaluating both the short and longer Housing Federation. term impact of the changes will be needed. Following the introduction of the changes, While the UK Government will evaluate the impacts should be then be tracked the changes (as well as the overall benefit periodically over the course of two to cap and Direct Payments), the extent three years. An exercise of this scale to which this will focus on the impact would provide a robust evaluation of the on landlords and affected tenants in full impact of the changes. Scotland will depend on the scope of the exercise. The Scottish Government and other organisations in Scotland, such as the SFHA, may want to carry out their own evaluation.

The complexity of the impact of ‘bedroom tax’ Spoltight on Scotland 19 Measuring fuel poverty in Scotland

4 October 2012 Chris Martin Ipsos MORI Scotland

There has been recent heated debate on It is clear from the Scottish Government’s The Scottish Government should also moves in both Scotland and England to evidence review that the recent rises in continue to ensure that the energy reassess how fuel poverty is measured fuel poverty have come about because efficiency of the housing stock is and the resulting policy implications. The of a substantial rise in fuel costs and maximised in order to reduce household method for estimating fuel poverty - how static incomes despite considerable energy costs. This is most likely to happen many people cannot heat their homes to improvements in the energy efficiency of by ensuring that new houses are built to an acceptable level at a reasonable cost the housing stock. It notes that over the the highest energy efficiency standards - has been consistent for over a decade. last 7 years, the proportion of dwellings and that improvements to the existing A household has been in fuel poverty with loft insulation has more than doubled, stock are facilitated. if it needs to spend 10% or more of its solid wall insulation has almost doubled post-tax income on gas and electricity. In and cavity wall insulation has increased The rate of fuel poverty will also be Scotland, this has been derived from the from 33% to 62%. Indeed, it suggests influenced by levels of income, raising Scottish House Condition Survey (SHCS). that if everyone lived in dwellings with questions for governments about what ‘exceptionally good’ energy efficiency, assistance to give with fuel bills and Last year, the Hills Fuel Poverty Review 14% would still be fuel poor. who should receive it. This feeds into suggested amending the definition of an ongoing debate about the means- fuel poverty in England to include only Regardless of the issues of redefining testing of benefits such as the Winter Fuel those with low incomes and high heating fuel poverty, it is clear that more and more Allowance. However, even if a government costs (removing those with high incomes people are struggling to pay energy bills. proposed the full means-testing of winter and high heating costs, and those with In order to try and address this trend, the fuel payments, the Scottish Government’s low incomes but low heating costs). The Scottish Government needs to consider evidence review highlights that those in Scottish Government has also recently its response in terms of the key factors fuel poverty do not necessarily overlap published a detailed discussion paper that determine the level of fuel poverty, with those in receipt of benefit so such assessing the definition, measurement energy costs, energy efficiency of new targeting of resources may be difficult. and analysis of fuel poverty. homes and incomes.

The driver for these has come in part from The key driver of fuel poverty is the cost the need to target resources at a time of gas and electricity and these costs when there has been a sizeable increase look likely to increase given that natural in fuel poverty. While in Scotland the energy stocks are continuing to diminish. proportion of households in fuel poverty While government’s ability to directly fell between 1996 and 2002 because of affect household energy bills is limited, increased income and falling fuel prices, it can support investment in micro- since then it has risen dramatically - from renewable sources of domestic energy, 13% of households in 2002 to 28% in such as ground source heat pumps, 2010. Current trends suggest that by solar photovoltaic systems, to make them 2016, half of all household may be in fuel more appealing and more necessary. poverty. This was the date given in the Schemes such as the Renewable Heat Scottish Executive’s 2002 Fuel Poverty Initiative, currently out for consultation Statement to eradicate fuel poverty. by DECC, should help support domestic households in Scotland move away from fossil fuels and alleviate fuel poverty.

20 Spotlight on Scotland Measuring fuel poverty in Scotland Labels, damn labels and statistics

18 September 2012 Dr Sara Davidson Ipsos MORI Scotland

In the spring 2009 edition of our One of the most interesting and These concerns about linkage are largely newsletter Approach, my colleague, unexpected findings to emerge from unfounded as the Strategy is primarily Steven Hope, suggested that there is the deliberative workshops concerned concerned with linking anonymised data scope for public bodies to make more participants’ attitudes, not to data linkage, for research and statistical purposes, use of existing statistical and research but to the general focus on quantitative not sharing personal information about evidence. Similar sentiments have been data in decision making. There was a view an individual between organisations. expressed, with increasing regularity, by that this leads to the crude categorisation When the workshop participants were public bodies themselves over recent or “labelling” of individuals and groups reassured on this point, most immediately years. Indeed, the Scottish Government – for example, as being ‘from a bad became more comfortable with the idea has been working with a range of area’ or ‘low achieving’ or ‘criminal’ – of linkage. Still, their broader concerns partners to establish a collaborative and subsequently to stigmatisation and about the potentially negative impact strategic framework to facilitate increased discrimination. A reverse effect was of categorising individuals and groups cross-sectoral data linkages for research also identified whereby individuals or cannot be so easily negated and provide and statistical purposes. These linkages, groups who have not being labelled or two important reminders to those of involve joining two or more administrative categorised in a particular way miss out us working in social research and or survey datasets and have the potential on much needed support or assistance policy. The first concerns the inherent to significantly increase the power of as a result – the example was given of limitations of aggregate – and indeed analysis possible with the data, reducing a small impoverished area not receiving much sub-aggregate – level data the need for additional data collection. financial assistance from government analysis in promoting an understanding The Strategy incorporates the Research simply because it is not officially classified of individuals’ lives, and the importance On Census Alternatives (Beyond 2011) as one of the most deprived places in the of remaining alert to atypical patterns project, an ongoing investigation of country. of experience and need. The second is administrative data (such as data from the considerable capacity of the public electoral registration, state schools, There was some concern that data to engage at a sophisticated level with DWP customer lists etc.) which may help linkage could exacerbate these problems complex policy debate, and to shape produce population statistics without the by creating the potential for labels to carry that debate by drawing attention to, high cost of a census. across sector boundaries and receive and questioning, taken-for-granted wider application. A specific concern assumptions and practices on the part of Earlier this year the Government launched was that someone’s past involvement with decision makers. a consultation on the Data Linkage the criminal justice system could become Framework. It also commissioned Ipsos known to various authorities and result MORI, along with staff from the Centre in them being placed at the bottom of a for Population Health Sciences at the housing list or otherwise facing unequal University of Edinburgh, to undertake a access to services. series of public deliberative workshops to provide better evidence on the public acceptability of data linkage. The findings from both exercises have now been published and can be accessed on the Scottish Government website.

Labels, damn labels and statistics Spoltight on Scotland 21 Where are all the cyclists?

13 September 2012 Steven Hope Ipsos MORI Scotland

The opening lines of the Manifesto Even including fair weather commuters We know where the cyclists are by produced for the Pedal on Parliament and leisure cyclists the total percentage local authority (Fig 1) and by modelling cycle ride in April of this year summed up of adults who cycle is 9.9%. Scotland the characteristics of cyclists we can the ‘why’ question of cycling promotion. has around 4.3 million adults so if 10% estimate the distribution of cyclists within are cyclists then this implies that Scotland local authorities (Fig 2). Cycling should be the obvious solution currently has around 430,000 cyclists. to many of Scotland’s ills. It is cheap, healthy, democratic and convivial, FIG 1: CYCLING BY ADULTS IN EACH LOCAL AUTHORITY IN SCOTLAND benefits local economies and makes the 18% Highland streets a safer place for all. Cyclist benefit 16% Moray themselves – physiologically their bodies 15% Edinburgh, City Council are, on average, many years ‘younger’ 14% East Lothian than non-cyclists’, and they suffer less 13% Scottish Borders from the ‘western’ diseases that beset 12% City Scotland so – and they benefit others, 12% Argyll & Bute

cutting congestion and improving air 12% Orkney

quality. 12% Stirling

12% Aberdeenshire

OK, it’s not as catchy as Marx and Engels’ 11% East Dunbartonshire

opening to the Communist Manifesto but 11% Angus

then encouraging cycling should be more 10% Eilean Siar

of an opportunity to be grasped than 10% Perth & Kinross

spectre haunting the bourgeoisie. 10% West Lothian

10% North Ayrshire On the face of it, all the push factors are 10% Dumfries & Galloway there – the rising cost of car ownership, 9% Falkirk the time spent commuting, the need and 9% Glasgow City desire for both adults and children to be 9% Midlothian more active, slimmer and healthier and 8% South Ayrshire the need to save money on local services. 8% Clackmannanshire But since the Scottish Household Survey 8% Fife started in 1999, the percentage of adults 7% West Dunbartonshire usually cycling to work or education has 7% City increased from just 1.8% to 2.5%. You can 6% Shetland think of that as a 39% increase over the 10 6% North Lanarkshire years but it’s still miserably low, even when 6% Renfrewshire 6% Inverclyde you compare the best Scottish cities like 6% South Lanarkshire Edinburgh or Aberdeen, where 7% and 5% 6% East Renfrewshire of adults cycle to work or education, with 5% East Ayrshire the best European cities like Copenhagen Source: Scottish Household Survey 2009/2010 (30%) or Groningen (55%).

22 Spotlight on Scotland Where are all the cyclists FIG 2: ESTIMATED DISTRIBUTION OF ADULT CYCLING IN EDINBURGH things being equal, you have a higher probability of being a cyclist. If you live in Derived from 2009/2010 Scottish Household Survey, green shading shows areas where estimated adult cycling is above a deprived area, you are less likely to be the Scottish average a cyclist. On balance, area effects tend to suppress the likelihood of someone being a cyclist so removing the influence of these effects increases the estimated number of cyclists to 496,000, potentially increasing the number of cyclists by 17%.

However, removing area effects removes both positive and negative influences. What if we only remove those which have a negative influence? In effect, we’re saying ‘without changing anything else, what would be the impact on cycling if we made everywhere at least as good as the better places?’ The estimate increases to 541,000 or a 28% increase in the number of cyclists.

This is only a model of cycling but it suggests some practical consequences. But how many should there be? or rural, affluent or deprived and at a It suggests that local characteristics Beyond the simplistic comparison that personal level, whether you are male or suppress demand for cycling; that in Edinburgh, for example, 36% of female, young or old, have children or across the country people with the households have an adult bicycle but only don’t and whether you rent or own your same characteristics as people who are 15% of adults cycle, this is a much more home. Each on its own is quite weakly currently cycling might also cycle if their difficult question. Answering it involves related to cycling but in combination, area levelled up and copied the types of working out how many people, who are each additional variable ‘explains’ an provision found in areas with higher rates not currently cycling, could become increasing amount of the variation in of participation. Of course, ask cyclists cyclists if conditions were different or cycling. From the data in the SHS we can and they’ll tell you that even the best they made different decisions. One way build a statistical model of the variables areas in Scotland have much room for to estimate the potential number is to that influence cycling. improvement. Therefore, all areas could develop an explanatory model of existing improve on what’s already there and aim cyclists, change the variables and see Changing which variables are put into for Groningen levels of cycling. what happens to the estimated number – the model changes the probability that a sort of statistical experiment. someone will be a cyclist and therefore The probability of a person being a changes the estimated number of cyclist is influenced by a complex set of cyclists. For instance, the characteristics variables that operate at different levels. of an area can increase or decrease It matters what local authority you live in, the probability of being a cyclist. If you whether your neighbourhood is urban live in Edinburgh or Moray then, all other

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