Occasional newsletter of Electoral Reform LARGEST REMAINDER (Not quite Quota Notes) No. 26 July 2015 In this issue count right through to the end. o In this issue...... 1 Gaming of the system is rife. Unprincipled o President’s Report to the Annual General backroom deals are made between parties Meeting of Electoral Reform Australia....1 who should ostensibly be on opposite ends of o Address by Guest speaker...... 2 the political spectrum. Excessive and o Is the Robson Rotation a Turn too Far? ...2 pointless formality requirements force voters into supporting party tickets despite knowing o Simulation ...... 6 that such deals may have been arranged. o Future Meetings ...... 7 One would think that as electoral results after President’s Report to the Annual electoral results, right across this country, General Meeting of Electoral show the failure of the current system, reform would be easy. But no! The latest ridiculous Reform Australia idea, from the Federal Joint Standing In Australia, there is general acceptance that Committee on Electoral Matters (JSCEM), is proportional representation is worthwhile, at to impose on the Senate the same system that least for upper houses and local government, has just failed in the latest NSW Legislative and we don’t normally have to debate the Council election, as indeed it did in previous merits of PR versus such ridiculous elections. systems as first past the post. The JSCEM proposal retains above-the-line Our task is much more subtle and therefore voting, retains compulsory preferences below probably more difficult. We have to persuade the line, and hopes that voters will give politicians and most of the self-styled preferences to different groups in the above- psephologists that they are wrong: that all the the-line boxes. add-ons and accretions imposed on a beautiful (STV) system have It won’t work. Should they bother to look, they will see that four out of twenty one corrupted the results, and that only by a candidates in the NSW Legislative Council simplification of our shall the election were elected without obtaining a will of the people be respected. quota; that over 7% (one and a half quotas) of The current electoral system has failed in the vote exhausted; that one elected candidate many ways. Micro party candidates are could not even reach 2% of the formal vote; regularly and increasingly being elected with and just how close another group of political only a tiny fraction of a quota. The Senate and gamers came to winning a seat. Victorian and NSW Legislative Councils can An examination of the results in the Victorian provide examples. Legislative Council election will show Voters are asked to judge the relative merits equally disappointing results, this time aided of hundreds of candidates, the great majority by above-the-line voting and group voting of whom cannot be (and, in many cases, do tickets. not even want to be) elected. Parties and Reform in Australia can be very easy trust groups are forced to run many candidates – the voters and keep it simple. when they would be happy and pleased if they could just get one candidate elected. These Abolish all forms of above-the-line voting full but meaningless party groups also give a and group voting tickets and allow fully false impression to voters that their vote will optional preferential voting. It works in ACT LARGEST REMAINDER JULY 2015 elections: voter participation goes up as both which is similar to the PRSA in being non- informal voting and exhausted votes go down. partisan and non-abrasive and having a ranked Should they also rotate candidates within choice and PR as its goals. party groups and count the ballot using the The need for electoral reform in the US is Meek method of counting an STV ballot then demonstrated by many elections, including Australia will have a world class electoral the 2012 congressional elections in which the system. Democrats won the popular vote but the Opportunities for electoral reform in Australia Republicans won the seats. There is little or are very rare. The reforms of 1948 and 1983 no sustained interest in the US in a third produced unsatisfactory results. There is a political party. Electoral laws and regulations mood for change but we need to persuade vary widely from state to state and even from politicians that the rights of voters are county to county. paramount. In the latter half of next year we will have both a Federal election and the NSW local government elections. They both badly need reform; in particular the Senate and Botany Bay Council which continues to laugh at everybody by maintaining its – unique for NSW – undemocratic, single member, winner take all council wards.

Address by Guest speaker Guest speaker Casey Peters and Casey Peters addressed the 2015 Annual Secretary/Treasurer Patrick Lesslie. General Meeting of Electoral Reform Australia on the progress of community activism for proportional representation in the Is the Robson Rotation a Turn USA. His own involvement dated from too Far? membership of a study group of the Peace and It is a truth universally acknowledged that Freedom Party called People for Proportional there is an advantage to be drawn from Representation (PFPR) which advocates for winning, or being given, a favourable position effective voting. on the ballot paper. Anyone who has been at He spoke about The Initiative by which any the draw of candidates’ names will have heard California voter can put an initiative or the whoop of joy from the candidate whose on the ballot by following a name is drawn first. defined process. He also spoke of the history The election of Members of Parliament of PR in the USA from the 1920s when there should not be dependent on luck. was a move by the National Municipal League to promote PR for use in city To eliminate this element of luck some form elections. By the 1950s, it was out of fashion of rotation of the order of candidates on ballot and was abandoned by many cities in order to papers is essential. remove particular groups (e.g. Communists) The ACT and Tasmania use the Robson from their councils. rotation. This, along with the absence of More recently, other groups such as the above-the-line voting and group voting tickets Electoral Reform Initiative Committee has in recent elections (contrary to results (ERIC) have been PR advocates. In the early elsewhere in the country) prevented 1990s there was Citizens for Proportional unrepresentative micro parties gaining Representation (CPR) which became Fair election and unscrupulous joke party Vote (fairvote.org). In 1990, Casey was Vice candidates from gaming the system. President of Californians for Electoral Reform As the number of members being elected per

Page 2 of 7 LARGEST REMAINDER JULY 2015 electorate rises, the number of variations has been placed in the first position. With under the Robson rotation also rises thirteen candidates there will be thirteen dramatically. The election of six Senators ballot paper variations, not millions. using the Robson rotation may be reasonable 4. Then, reverse the initial order of the but its use in the election of twelve Senators candidates and repeat the above process. in a is not. With thirteen candidates there will be A slavish adherence to the Robson rotation twenty six ballot paper variations. also allows commentators who wish to be Such a procedure can work for any number of pedantic to have free rein. candidates and the rotation of candidates In the ACT, the 5 member divisions require 60 ensures that those voters who do donkey vote different versions of the ballot paper, the 7- down the ballot paper will not favour any one member district requires 420 versions. To get candidate. The reversal of the order will the rotations in every column equal, the ensure that any preferences from such voters number of rotations is equal to the first number will also not favour any one candidate. divisible by every number less than the number of vacancies. But if you have more than 7 Multi-member STV electorates vacancies, the number of rotations required to In Senate and local government elections, the get Robson Rotation working sky rockets, situation is different. The political parties, 2,520 for 9 person tickets, 27,220 for 11 and either formally constituted State or National 360,360 for 13 or 15 person tickets, over a organisations or just a group of like-minded million when you get to 17. So I presume the people in a country town, choose a number of number of candidates that can be nominated candidates to stand for election. Under fixed on a single will be limited to overcome this problem. order ballot papers these political parties can be assured that their candidates, if elected at – Antony Green, Room (27 May 2009) all, will be elected in the order of their Note Green’s solution: limit the number of choosing: most preferred to least preferred. candidates, not amend the method of rotation. Candidates would be grouped in party Let’s instead look at simpler versions of columns, with the number of candidates rotation. limited by the number of positions to be Single member electorates filled. However, the number of candidates in a group is self-limiting. In a Senate election, In single member electorates, such as for the 85.8% of the vote is required to obtain six House of Representatives, the issue is simple. quotas and 71.5% of the vote to obtain five Political parties preselect a single candidate quotas. To ensure that their vote is not spread and then campaign to have that candidate too thinly and to limit exhausted votes, the elected. Occasionally, and probably major parties would limit their number of increasingly, thirteen or more candidates will candidates to four. Minor parties would run contest a single electorate. two or three candidates. Should any party run Electoral Reform Australia recommends a six, the weaker candidates would be excluded simple rotation that will allow all candidates during the count and their preferences would to share the top position equally, using the be transferred to the stronger candidates. following process: The Robson rotation undermines the influence 1. Randomly draw the names of the of political parties, especially their candidates to give an initial order. This is organisational wings. The first Robson the first ballot paper. rotation resulted from the spat between the 2. Take the name of the candidate last on political and organisational wings of the this list and place that candidate’s name Tasmanian Labor Party that Neil Robson first and move every other candidate exploited to have his proposal carried, and has down one place. This is the second ballot resulted in a substantial transfer of power paper. from the organisational wing to the political 3. Repeat this process until every candidate wing of political parties.

Page 3 of 7 LARGEST REMAINDER JULY 2015 Within the PR movement, the Robson rotation There will be as many variations as there are has been widely endorsed and little if any candidates. study has been given to its implications. But By arranging the ballot paper this way, the has this transfer of power necessarily been party is able to promote the leader of the beneficial? Has the pendulum swung too far? team, perhaps a current Cabinet Minister or a Why should the preselectors who know the potential candidate for Mayor, and individual candidates and know what they want their voters may choose to vote for this candidate. party to achieve, and in many cases help pay In many instances, this candidate will gain a the campaign expenses, be denied any quota and be elected. Unless the voter influence in determining who is elected? exercises their democratic right to vote The rotation of candidates on the ballot paper differently, preferences will generally flow to – any rotation – is essential to help ensure that the next candidate on the list. This candidate the number of candidates elected from has not been chosen randomly, as with the popular political parties or groups is Robson rotation, but deliberately by the Party: maximised. Naturally, any political party, the likelihood of their election is enhanced. once it is assured of getting its favourite sons The rusted on voters who don’t know or care or daughters elected, would be very pleased to who the candidates are but just want to vote have even more members elected. for the party will start at the top and vote The following rotation helps redress the down the party ticket. Because every balance, but does not guarantee that political candidate in the group has an equal chance of parties will elect their preferred candidates. having the top position these votes will be This rotation can save the political party from very even. It is these voters who make the its own stupidity; should they preselect rotation system work by spreading the party candidate(s) who are clearly unsuitable, voters vote across all the candidates in the group and still have the choice of voting for the party but helping to prevent the last candidate from not the candidate(s). being excluded early in the count. Recommendation for STV elections The following scenario demonstrates that the First, each political party supplies a list of rotation of candidates – any rotation – has a candidates in the order that they choose. This profound influence on an election’s outcome. is the first ballot paper. Traditional Fixed Order Ballot Paper As with current fixed order ballot papers, a (2 to be elected) sensible order would be from most favoured Candidates Vote to least favoured. If the party is confident of A1 1.49 quotas electing multiple numbers, there is room for A2 0 B1 0.51 quotas the party to arrange candidates in a different B2 0 order. The party may, for example, place the After Preferences only female candidate immediately after the Candidates Vote Seats current Mayor. A council team with two A1 1.0 quota 1 popular sitting councillors may run a group of A2 0.49 quotas 0 four with the unknown candidates separating B1 0.51 quotas 1 them, hoping that any surplus will keep their B2 0 0 running mates in the count longer. It is the With traditional ballot papers, and especially party’s choice. with above-the-line voting, the above result Second, take the name of the candidate last on gives each party one seat despite the fact that this list and place that candidate’s name first Party A has almost three times the support. and move every other candidate down one place. This is the second ballot paper. Third, repeat this process until every candidate has been placed in the first position.

Page 4 of 7 Rotation Ballot Paper (2 to be elected) House of Representatives is that it is Candidates Vote unreasonable to expect busy MPs to have to A1 0.74 quotas campaign on local issues within a multi- A2 0.75 quotas member electorate because they fear losing B1 0.51 quotas their seat, not to the , but to B2 0 members of their own party. After Preferences Candidates Vote Seats Why should the Minister for Foreign Affairs, A1 0.74 quotas + B1 votes 1 who is busy representing Australia on the A2 0.75 quotas + B1 votes 1 other side of the world, have to be back in B1 0 quotas 0 Bullamakanka to attend the local B & S ball? B2 0 quotas 0 With single member electorates, this Minister Party A received exactly the same number of would probably hold a safe seat; he or she votes as in the fixed order ballot but this time would have been unlikely to have accepted gained both seats despite all the votes in Party the ministerial position otherwise. B being concentrated on one candidate. Stephen Todd, an electoral reform advocate in Although this is the perfect split for Party A, New Zealand, has an ingenious and brilliant all that is necessary is for the weaker of Party solution to the problem of intra-party fighting. A’s candidates to have more votes than the He proposes that New Zealand should have combined vote for Party B. nine electorates, two in the South Island and Local Government seven in the North Island, each returning either thirteen or fourteen members. Rotating candidates within party groups works regardless of the number of candidates To quote Stephen Todd: to be elected. In fact, the more candidates to I have divided each of the 9 electoral districts be elected, the fairer the result. In NSW, into 7 precincts of roughly equal populations. many councils elect their Councillors from The parties would be allowed to put one single wards of nine, twelve and occasionally candidate of its choice at the head of its list in fifteen. Almost invariably, the last few each precinct and the rest of the names would candidates are elected with the largest be listed in random order. That would enable, remainder(s). Parties with multiple quotas fail say, National, to put its leadership at the head of its list in all, or most, precincts in each to elect their last candidate and candidates in order to attract voters, but with poor support scrape into the council with the transfer of their surplus votes would be votes short of a quota. determined by the voters. At the last NSW Local Government elections This compromise would also allow the parties in Campbelltown (15 to be elected from one to promote the candidacies of ‘prominent ward), a group with 4.4 quotas failed to elect locals’ or ‘local heroes’. For example, five candidates while three groups, none of National could put a prominent Māori which reached a quota, each elected one candidate at the head of its list in the precinct candidate. The group with 4.4 quotas had 5.7, where that candidate resides, to attract Māori 5.1 and 4.9 times the vote of the other groups. voters. In other words, the party leader(s) would not necessarily have to head the list in Any form of candidate rotation would have all 7 precincts of their electoral districts. ensured, at a minimum, that this group would Again, for example, prime minister John Key secure five seats at the expense of at least one might only head the list in 4 of the 7 precincts of the poorly supported candidates. The in the Auckland isthmus electoral district, with nonsense that each group was required to run other prominent Nationals each heading the a minimum of eight candidates did not help. list in the other 3. With experience, the parties The simple rule is: only candidates who could get quite creative in the way they allocate the head position to their candidates.1 obtain a quota should expect to be elected. In Australia, such precincts could also serve Further discussion One of the arguments against STV for the 1 Private correspondence with the author. LARGEST REMAINDER JULY 2015 as administrative units for the Electoral this article for STV elections. Commission, similar to the current single- member electorates servicing Senate Conclusion elections. Candidates in an STV ballot can be arranged in a number of ways. A fixed ballot order Stephen Todd also points out the advantages guarantees the order of election of candidates that these precincts would give candidates: but severely reduces the chances of electing [The quota for election would be slightly less an additional candidate from the group. than half the turnout in each precinct.]2 That Groups that fail to reach a quota are the main should assure individual major-party beneficiaries of this method. candidates that they don’t need to campaign over the entire electoral district to ensure Applying strict Robson rotation rules spreads election; they only need to campaign in their the vote widely and ensures that second and own precinct, plus perhaps the one or two subsequent preferences are also spread precincts either side / nearby. The candidates widely. This maximises the number of can divide up the electorates the way they do candidates that will be elected from groups in Ireland, and the way Scottish councillors that obtain multiple preferences. Since the started doing at their 2012 local elections (the 3 party controls much of the campaign’s money second by STV). and publicity, the first candidate preselected Such a proposal does not guarantee election can usually be assured of election, but the and the voters still have the opportunity to election of subsequent candidates, especially vary their own personal choices. The in large impersonal elections such as for the Australian constitutional requirement that Senate, can be a matter of luck. Members of Parliament be directly elected by A third option is to allow the parties to have the voters would still be met. some influence on the order of the ballot These precincts also allow Members to papers. This is a compromise between the develop an affinity with local areas not other two options. Party members can be dissimilar to single member electorates. As satisfied that their inside knowledge, there are twice as many Members as influence and involvement is respected. precincts, most voters would still be Supporters of the party can be satisfied that represented, perhaps in their own precinct, but they are able to vary the result should they certainly in the broader electorate, by an MP believe that the party has made an error in the that they actually voted for. choice of candidates; these same supporters Minor parties can place the head of their team can also be satisfied that the prospects of in the lead position in all the precincts. This electing more members is enhanced. action does indicate that they believe that they The influence of the organisational wing are unlikely to win more than one position but should neither dominate nor be irrelevant in does give maximum prominence to that the election of candidates. It merely needs to candidate. In electorates that include both be diluted. traditional Liberal and National Party areas the could vary the lead position Queensland Simulation accordingly. The Queensland State election took place in Electoral Reform Australia would recommend January this year. The result was a change of that the subsequent positions in each precinct government in which the new Labor be rotated in the manner described earlier in government requires the support of at least one of the Katter’s Australian Party members 2 A quota is the total formal vote divided by the or the sole Independent. number of candidates plus one. With fourteen An STV simulation of the voting figures of candidates, a quota is one fifteenth of the formal vote. Provided the number of precincts is half the number of the election is set out on the next page. candidates to be elected a quota will always be slightly You will note that the closest result to the less than half the formal vote in any one precinct. 3 Private correspondence with the author. ideal is the count that includes rotating Page 6 of 7 LARGEST REMAINDER JULY 2015 candidates within the party groups and counts Electoral Commissioners should use local the ballot using the Meek method of counting. government areas when drawing up electorate In the simulation, the independents and micro boundaries. parties can be ignored and their votes Queensland uses optional preferential voting redistributed, either by the preferences of their and readers will note the low informal vote of own voters or the workings of the Meek 2.11%. An STV election with fully optional method of counting. Meek recalculates the preferential voting will give, as it does in quota each time a candidate is excluded and ACT elections, a similarly low informal vote. votes exhaust. The Katter’s Australian Party is included because the party contested so few Future Meetings seats and the high vote in a few regional seats The next meeting will be held on Wednesday ensures its representation in the Far North 5 August 2015 at 7.30 pm. Queensland multi-member electorate. Anyone is welcome to attend. For details, Most Green voters are also represented and please contact Stephen Lesslie at about half the Palmer United Party voters are [email protected] or on also represented. (02) 6351 2598 for the relevant information. Provided gerrymandering is not rife and the two party preferred vote is close then single Comments and/or contributions are welcome: member electorates will give reasonably [email protected], or accurate two party results but, unlike single Electoral Reform Australia member electorates, this simulation ensures 12 Kirkley Street that every Labor and LNP voter is represented South Bowenfels NSW 2790 by a member of the party they voted for. Of course, in elections where the two party Electoral Reform Australia Office-bearers for 2015-2016 vote is not close, such as the last Queensland Stephen Lesslie President election and earlier Beattie elections, then – Susan Gregory Vice President single member electorates give wildly – Mark Rodowicz Vice President distorted results. – Patrick Lesslie – Secretary/Treasurer In Queensland it is not possible to construct STV electorates which include both city and Committee: John Alexander, John Baglin, regional voters. Brisbane is too big and too far Patricia Kennedy, Marian Lesslie, south. These electorates are just randomly Peter Palethorpe picked contiguous electorates. Community of interest requirements are a misunderstanding Electoral Reform Australia is the NSW Branch of the Proportional Representation Society of Australia of STV; to work well, STV needs diversity not uniformity.

STV simulation of the Queensland election Party Total % Seats Strict Without 11/12 11/12 Vote Won Entitlement Micro Member Member (Qld as one Parties and electorates electorates electorate) Others fixed order with Meek and rotation Liberal National Party 1,084,060 41.32 42 36.7 38.9 37 39 983,054 37.47 44 33.3 35.3 34 37 The Greens 221,157 8.43 - 7.5 7.9 10 7 Palmer United Party 133,929 5.11 - 4.5 4.7 5 5 Katter's Australian Party 50,588 1.93 2 1.7 1.8 2 1 31,231 1.19 - 1 - - - One Nation 24,111 0.92 - 0.8 - - - Others 95,313 3.63 1 3.2 - 1 - Total 2,623,443 100 89 88.7 88.6 89 89 Informal Votes 56,431 2.11 Page 7 of 7