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Naval War College Review Volume 64 Article 1 Number 4 Autumn 2011 Full Autumn 2011 Issue The .SU . Naval War College Follow this and additional works at: https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review Recommended Citation Naval War College, The .SU . (2011) "Full Autumn 2011 Issue," Naval War College Review: Vol. 64 : No. 4 , Article 1. Available at: https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review/vol64/iss4/1 This Full Issue is brought to you for free and open access by the Journals at U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Naval War College Review by an authorized editor of U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Naval War College: Full Autumn 2011 Issue NAVAL WAR COLL EGE REV NAVA L WA R C O L L E G E R E V I E W IEW Autumn 2011 Volume 64, Number 4 Autumn 2011 N ES AV T A A L T W S A D R E C T I O L N L U E E G H E T R I VI IBU OR A S CT MARI VI Published by U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons, 2011 1 Backup_of_Backup_of_NWC Review Samplevp 2 Thursday, July 28, 2011 1:14:41 PM Naval War College Review, Vol. 64 [2011], No. 4, Art. 1 Cover Our cover image was designed by the artists of the Naval War College’s Visual Communications Department to mark the entry to the offi ce suite in newly renovated Luce Hall of the College’s In- ternational Programs staff. Since then it has become familiar about the campus as a symbol of the extensive (and growing) activity of the International Programs organization—comprising primarily its two resident programs, the Naval Com- mand College and Naval Staff College —and of the College’s contribution to maritime security cooperation in general. Title Page (opposite) Wall mural in Sims Hall, Naval War Col- lege, by Gigi Davis, Visual Communica- tions Department Head. https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review/vol64/iss4/1 2 NWC_2011Autumn_InsideCover.indd 1 8/2/2011 9:29:36 AM Color profile: Disabled Composite Default screen Naval War College: Full Autumn 2011 Issue NAVALWAR COLLEGE REVIEW Autumn 2011 Volume 64, Number 4 NAVALWAR COLLEGE PRESS 686 Cushing Road Newport, RI 02841-1207 Published by U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons, 2011 3 NWC_2011AutumnReview_TitlePage.ps \\data1\john.lanzieri.ctr$\msdata\Desktop\NavalWarCollege\NWC_2011AutumnReview\NWC_2011AutumnReview.vp Tuesday, August 02, 2011 9:43:24 AM Color profile: Disabled Composite Default screen Naval War College Review, Vol. 64 [2011], No. 4, Art. 1 NAVAL WAR COLLEGE PRESS ADVISORY BOARD PRESIDENT, NAVAL WAR COLLEGE Adam Bellow Rear Adm. John N. Christenson, USN Capt. Wayne P. Hughes, USN (Ret.) PROVOST Jeffrey Kline Amb. Mary Ann Peters Gale A. Mattox Robert A. Silano DEAN OF NAVAL WARFARE STUDIES Marin Strmecki Robert C. Rubel Dov S. Zakheim NAVAL WAR COLLEGE PRESS Carnes Lord, Editor NAVAL WAR COLLEGE REVIEW EDITORIAL BOARD Pelham G. Boyer, Managing Editor Donald Chisholm Phyllis P. Winkler, Book Review Editor Audrey Kurth Cronin Lori A. Almeida, Secretary and Circulation Manager Peter Dombrowski Frank Uhlig, Jr., Editor Emeritus Stephen Downes-Martin Col. Theodore L. Gatchel, USMC (Ret.) Naval War College Review James R. Holmes Code 32, Naval War College Capt. Dennis Mandsager, JAGC, USN (Ret.) 686 Cushing Rd., Newport, RI 02841-1207 William C. Martel Fax: 401.841.1071 Col. Mackubin Owens, USMC (Ret.) DSN exchange, all lines: 841 Cdr. Derek S. Reveron, USN Website: www.usnwc.edu/press Capt. Peter M. Swartz, USN (Ret.) http://twitter.com/NavalWarCollege Cdr. David Teska, USCGR Editor, Circulation, or Business Scott C. Truver 401.841.2236 James J. Wirtz [email protected] Managing Editor 401.841.4552 [email protected] Newport Papers, Books [email protected] Essays and Book Reviews 401.841.6584 [email protected] Other Naval War College Offices 401.841.3089 https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review/vol64/iss4/1 4 NWC_2011AutumnReview.ps \\data1\john.lanzieri.ctr$\msdata\Desktop\NavalWarCollege\NWC_2011AutumnReview\NWC_2011AutumnReview.vp Thursday, July 28, 2011 3:16:06 PM Color profile: Disabled Composite Default screen Naval War College: Full Autumn 2011 Issue The Naval War College Review was established in 1948 as a forum for discussion of public policy matters of interest to the maritime services. The thoughts and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and are not necessarily those of the U.S. government, the U.S. Navy Department, or the Naval War College. The journal is published quarterly. Distribution is limited generally to commands and activities of the U.S. Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard; regular and reserve officers of U.S. services; foreign officers and civilians having a present or previous affiliation with the Naval War College; selected U.S. government officials and agen- cies; and selected U.S. and international libraries, research centers, publications, and educational institutions. Contributors Please request the standard contributors’ guidance from the managing editor or access it online before submitting manuscripts. The Naval War College Review nei- ther offers nor makes compensation for articles or book reviews, and it assumes no responsibility for the return of manuscripts, although every effort is made to return those not accepted. In submitting work, the sender warrants that it is original, that it is the sender’s property, and that neither it nor a similar work by the sender has been accepted or is under consideration elsewhere. Permissions Reproduction and reprinting are subject to the Copyright Act of 1976 and appli- cable treaties of the United States. To obtain permission to reproduce material bearing a copyright notice, or to reproduce any material for commercial pur- poses, contact the editor for each use. Material not bearing a copyright notice may be freely reproduced for academic or other noncommercial use; however, it is requested that the author and Naval War College Review be credited and that the editor be informed. Periodicals postage paid at Newport, R.I. POSTMASTERS, send address changes to: Naval War College Review, Code 32S, Naval War College, 686 Cushing Rd., Newport, R.I. 02841-1207. ISSN 0028-1484 Published by U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons, 2011 5 NWC_2011AutumnReview.ps \\data1\john.lanzieri.ctr$\msdata\Desktop\NavalWarCollege\NWC_2011AutumnReview\NWC_2011AutumnReview.vp Thursday, July 28, 2011 3:16:06 PM Color profile: Disabled Composite Default screen Naval War College Review, Vol. 64 [2011], No. 4, Art. 1 https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review/vol64/iss4/1 6 NWC_2011AutumnReview.ps \\data1\john.lanzieri.ctr$\msdata\Desktop\NavalWarCollege\NWC_2011AutumnReview\NWC_2011AutumnReview.vp Thursday, July 28, 2011 3:16:09 PM Color profile: Disabled Composite Default screen Naval War College: Full Autumn 2011 Issue CONTENTS From the Editors. 3 President’s Forum . 7 The Future of Aircraft Carriers . 13 Robert C. Rubel As the geopolitical, technological, and budgetary environments change, the question of whether aircraft carriers will still be needed, and if so of what kind and how many, becomes urgent. The best way to approach it is in terms of how they are actually used and how they could be. Sea Basing Concept, Issues, and Recommendations . 28 Sam J. Tangredi In a flat or shrinking defense budget, resources for the joint capability of sea basing will become contentious. However, a prudent strategy for the United States in uncertain times is to balance long-range capabilities based in the continental United States with highly maneuverable and well defended sea bases. Three Disputes and Three Objectives China and the South China Sea . 42 Peter Dutton The complex disputes of the globally important South China Sea sort themselves into three categories, each with its own parties, rule sets, and politics. Unfortunately, states are pursuing win-lose solutions to all three, when win-win problem solving based on mutuality and commonality of interests is necessary and possible. Progressing Maritime Security Cooperation in the Indian Ocean . 68 Lee Cordner In the Indian Ocean region, the obstacles to maritime security cooperation are especially severe, but the need for that cooperation is especially great. The prospect that nothing will be done is all too likely—and in view of the risks, unacceptable. Operational Assessment Why Operations Assessments Fail It’s Not Just the Metrics . 89 Jonathan Schroden In any military campaign it is necessary to measure how well one is doing; in unconventional, counterinsurgency warfare, measuring progress is especially difficult; and in Afghanistan, the attempt to do so is doing more harm than good, and for fundamental reasons. Published by U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons, 2011 7 NWC_2011AutumnReview_1.ps \\data1\john.lanzieri.ctr$\msdata\Desktop\NavalWarCollege\NWC_2011AutumnReview\NWC_2011AutumnReview.vp Friday, July 29, 2011 1:37:47 PM Color profile: Disabled Composite Default screen 2 NAVAL WARNaval COLLEGE War REVIEW College Review, Vol. 64 [2011], No. 4, Art. 1 Operations Assessment in Afghanistan Is Broken What Is to Be Done?. 103 Stephen Downes-Martin The operations assessments process in Afghanistan is untrustworthy and places at risk the credibility of commanders who support its products. But regional commanders have the authority and means to fix it. Dewey at Manila Bay Lessons in Operational Art and Operational Leadership from America’s First Fleet Admiral . 127 Commander Derek B. Granger, U.S. Navy Admiral George Dewey, his great victory at Manila Bay over a century ago, and even the Spanish- American War receive little attention, from either historians of naval warfare or its practitioners. But the nature of the challenges he faced, how he approached them, and how his career had prepared him to succeed so well are in fact highly relevant to the U.S.