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Master Thesis Israel’s practical transition plan to 100% all-sector clean renewable energy by 2050 Source: http://thesolutionsproject.org/ Liat M. Chobadi Technische Universität Berlin, MSc in Environmental Planning TU Berlin Matr.-Nr.: 354761 March, 2017 Supervisors: Prof. Dr. Volkmar Hartje Institut für Landschaftsarchitektur und Umweltplanung Fachgebiet Landschaftsökonomie Technische Universität Berlin Prof. Dr. Mark Jacobson Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Stanford University Eidesstattliche Erklärung Hiermit erkläre ich, dass ich die vorliegende Arbeit selbstständig und eigenhändig sowie ohne unerlaubte fremde Hilfe und ausschließlich unter Verwendung der aufgeführten Quellen und Hilfsmittel angefertigt habe. Tel Aviv, Israel, den March 12, 2017 ………………………………………………………………… Liat M. Chobadi 2 Abstract Israel is a country rich with renewable energy resources such as solar and wind. Yet, Israel currently lags behind other OECD countries with a mere 2% of its energy produced by renewable energy resources. Future plans to increase the share of renewable energy are at the very best modest or non- concrete. At the same time, Israel has a high-risk profile with regards to climate change. Given its long coastline and vulnerability to rising sea levels and its dry climate, Israel is prone to heatwaves and droughts. Other than climate change effects, the continued use of fossil fuels as an energy resource has additional negative effects such as air pollution causing health issues and premature deaths. This thesis proposes a clear, actionable, and validated plan to convert Israel’s all-purpose energy infrastructure into 100% renewable energy of Wind-Water-Sunlight (WWS) technologies by 2050. The proposed plan is based on Prof. Jacobson’s “world plan”,‘100% Clean and Renewable Wind, Water, and Sunlight (WWS) All-Sector Energy Roadmaps for 139 Countries of the World.’ While Jacobson et al. (2016) presents a cogent plan for Israel (as well as the other 138 countries) the World Plan does not account for Israel’s specific topographic, environmental, and statutory limitations. Accounting for such limitations is critical in order to validate Israel has enough suitable area to develop the aforementioned WWS technologies. Thus, meeting the expected all-purpose end use power by 2050 by relying entirely on WWS is questionable, hereby placing another hurdle for Jacobson’s et al. (2016) plan. Closing this gap is important as decision makers in general are more likely to adopt Jacobson’s et al. (2016) plan the more detailed and targeted it is towards their country. This thesis, based on Jacobson’s et al. (2016) World Plan, presents for the first time a full comprehensive validated plan to convert Israel’s all-purpose energy infrastructure to one derived entirely from WWS by 2050, which includes spatial analysis. In the analysis, residential rooftop photovoltaics (PV), utility-scale PV, and Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technologies practical potential were found to be sufficiently greater than the nameplate capacity needed according to Jacobson’s et al. (2016) proposed energy mix. Onshore wind practical potential was validated to be very close to the nameplate capacity needed by the World Plan. Since the analysis accounts only for limited topographic, environmental, and statutory limitations and many other factors exist that influence the success of wind development in Israel (such as economic and social factors), Jacobson’s et al. (2016) energy mix was not found to be “safely” validated. As such, a second ‘alternative’ proposal was introduced, offering an energy mix based on Jacobson’s et al. (2016) plan but slightly modified so that all energy sources were safely validated to meet projected demand. 3 Abstrakt Israel ist ein Land, dass viele erneuerbare Energiequellen besitzt, wie Solar- und Windenergie. Das Land bezieht jedoch nur 2% seiner Energie von erneuerbaren Energiequellen. Dies ist verglichen mit anderen OECD sehr wenig. Ist gibt für die Zukunft derzeit keine konkreten Pläne, die einen größeren Bezug von erneuerbaren Energie vorsehen. Zudem stellt der Klimawandel derzeit ein Risiko für Israel dar. Da das Land einen langen Küstenstreifen besitzt, ist es sehr schadenanfällig bei steigendem Meeresspiegel und besitzt zudem ein trockenes Klima mit Hitzewellen und Dürren. Neben den Effekten des Klimawandels, gehen mit der andauernden Benutzung fossiler Brennstoffe als Energiequelle viele negative Effekte einher, wie Luftverschmutzung, welche Gesundheitliche Probleme und frühzeitige Tode als Folge haben können In dieser Arbeit wird ein verständlicher, verfolgbarer und stichhaltiger Plan aufgeführt, der Israel 100 % Umwandlung auf erneuerbare Energien bis zum Jahr 2050, basierend auf Prof Jacobsons „World Plan“, 100% Clean and Renewable Wind, Water, and Sunlight (WWS) All-Sector Energy Roadmaps for 139 Countries of the World` erörtert. Obwohl Jacobson et. Al (2016) einen überzeugenden Plan für Israel (sowie die anderen 138 Länder) vorlegt, geht der World Plan nicht auf Israels spezifische Topografie, Umwelt und gesetzliche Bestimmungen ein. Diese sind jedoch kritisch für die Beurteilung, ob Israel genug geeignete Flächen hat, um die genannten WWS Technologien zu entwickeln. Daher ist das alleinige Verlassen auf WWS fraglich, wenn es darum geht bis 2050 den Energiebezug komplett auf Erneuerbare Energien zu umzustellen. Die schafft eine weitere Hürde für Jacobson’s et al . (2016) Plan. Dies ist insofern wichtig, da wichtige Entscheidungsträger generell mit größerer Wahrscheinlichkeit Jacobson’s et al. (2016) annehmen, je detaillierter und länderspezifisch er ist. Diese Arbeit bezieht sich auf Jacobson et al . (2016) World Plan und präsentiert zum ersten Mal einen kompletten, umfassenden validierten Plan der Israels komplette Energieinfrastruktur bis 2050 auf erneuerbare Energien beschreibt. Hierfür wird auch eine räumliche Analyse durchgeführt. In der durchgeführten räumlichen Analyse wurde ermittelt, dass das praktische Potential von Photovoltaikanlagen in Wohngebieten (PV); Versorgungsunternehmen (PV), und konzentrierte Solarkraft (CSP) als hinreichend größer ermessen wurde, als die Nennkapazität durch Jacobson’s et al. (2016) vorgeschlagenen Energiemix. Das praktische Potential von Seewind ist der ermittelten Nennkapazität aufgeführt im Worldplan sehr ähnlich. Da die Analyse nur auf limitierte topografische, umwelt und gesetzliche Bestimmungen eingeht und viele andere Faktoren existieren, die den Erfolg der Windentwicklung in Israel beeinflussen (die ökonomische und soziale), wurde Jacobson’s et al. (2016) Energie Mix als unzureichend empfunden. Es wurde aus diesem Grund eine zweiter ‘alternativer’ Vorschlag aufgeführt, der einen Energie Mix erläutert, der auf Jacobson’s et al. (2016) Plan basiert, aber ein wenig modifiziert wurde, damit alle Energiequellen sicher validiert werden konnten, um der prognostizierten Nachfrage gerecht zu werden. 4 Acknowledgements This Master’s Thesis has been written in order to fulfill an MSc in Environmental Planning at Technische Universität Berlin under the supervision of Prof. Dr. Volkmar Hartje and as a Visiting Student Researcher with Prof. Dr. Mark Jacobson’s research group at Stanford University. I would like to thank both of my supervisors for their guidance and support throughout the thesis process. Furthermore I would like to thank all of the kind individuals and organizations that helped me with data collection: Dr. Gil Proacktor (Israel’s Ministry of Environmental Protection), Omri Cameron (Israel’s Ministry of Environmental Protection), Yuval Laster (Israel’s Ministry of Environmental Protection), Yari Ginott (Israel’s Ministry of Environmental Protection), Honi Kabalo )Israel’s Public Utilities Authority), Eitan Parnas (Green Energy Association of Israel), Dror Zurel (Israel’s Ministry of Environmental Protection), Ran Dressler (Israel’s Planning Administration), Harel Dan (Hamaarag), Dr. Amit Savir (Israel Meteorological Service), Amir Shmulik (Israel’s Nature and Parks Authority) , Ohad Hatzofe (Israel’s Nature and Parks Authority), Sari Paz (Central baruao of statistics), Gershon Kun (Central baruao of statistics) Ora Meir (Central Baruao of statistics) and Gal Shofrony. 5 Table of Contents Abstract ................................................................................................................................................... 3 Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................................. 5 Table of figures ....................................................................................................................................... 8 List of tables .......................................................................................................................................... 10 List of abbreviations ............................................................................................................................. 12 Terms .................................................................................................................................................... 13 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 14 1.1 Predicted climate change effects on Israel ............................................................................ 14 1.2 Other negative effects to Israel from current BAU energy policy .......................................
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