Selected Efforts/Research in the Area of Warning Susanne Schmeidl

The entries listed below are based on a very broad definition ment Efforts; Research kentres at Universities; and Indi- of early warning. Anyone involved in research on conflict vidual Researchers. The difference between the last two is prediction, mediation, and/or resolution is included as I that the former is an orgianized researcheffort with an estab- believe that early warning, in order to be successful, must lished research project, *bile the latter refers to a research take into consideration a wide range of factors. In addition, project that is undertake~lbyone or two researchers. Most of I wish to encourage interaction among different participants the listings here are self-entries. Only in a very few circum- who share an interest in early warning. stances did I include a research effort without an initial sub- The following descriptions of efforts/research in the area mission (these efforts are marked with an asterik [*]). of early warning are based on submissions to the Centre for Individual researchers were only included if they answered Refugee Studies after request for the creation of a directory our request for information and provided enough material on "Who is Who and does What in Early Warning" was to be discussed. This sedtion, therefore, is the most incom- posted on the Internet. Thus, this list is incomplete by defi- plete. If you wish to lem more about certain efforts/re- nition, excluding those efforts that for some reason have not search you can contact the people identified. come to the attention of the Prevention/Early Warning Unit As the author of this r~mpilation,I take complete respon- at the Centre for Refugee Studies. The search for submis- sibility for any errors o$ misrepresentation that may have sions to the directory is ongoing. If you or your organization occurred during the res~archprocess. Any corrections for have been omitted, please contact us in order to be included the larger directory shodld be directed to Susanne Schrneidl in the final directory. The final version will be done in coop- at the Centre for Refugee Studies ([email protected]; Tel.: eration with Jeremy Bristol at International Alert, London. 416-736-5883; Fax: 4149736-5837). If you know of any ef- There are five kinds of entries: efforts undertaken by forts/ research not mentioned here which you think ought to NGOs; United Nations' efforts; Governments or Govern- be included into the directory, please let us know.

I. Early Warning Efforts by Agency for Cooperation and Research ODA-funded research programme into Non-Governmental Organizations in Development-ACORD Copplex Political Emergencies. ACORD has a range of interests that Mark Adams, Research and Programme fall under the heading 'conflict,' but our Oficer (Horn of Africa) prjmary focus is on issues directly rel- ACCESS Agency for Cooperation and Research in evant to development and emergency Development (ACORD) programming in Africa. Early warning is Mary Lord, Executive Director Francis House, Francis Street anr of those interests. 1511 K Street, NW, Suite 643 London, SWlP IDE, United Kingdom Washington, D.C. 20005, USA Tel.: (+44 171) 82&7611/7612 Carter Center-Conflict Resolution Tel.: (202)783-6050, I-, toll free Fax: (+44 171) 976-6113 Program* Fax: (202) 783-4767 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] ACORD is an international consortium of Hiirry Barnes, Director http:/ /www.bso.com/-access/ NGOs that implements development, re- Qhe Copehill homepage habilitation and emergency programmes 43b Freedom Parkway ACCESS was founded in 1985 as a in Africa. The Consortium is independent At/lanta, Georgia 30307, USA nonprofit, non-advocacy information of political and religious affiliations. Fdx: (404) 420-5196 service on international affairs issues. In ACORD hasbeeninterested in conflict ht@/ /www.emory.edu/carter-center an effort to keep the public informed of issues for a number of years, stemming TQe Carter Center is a nonprofit, non- important international developments, from the widespread proliferation of con- ~vernmentalorganization founded in ACCESS publishes timely, impartial sum- flictsin Africa which have affected almost f 482 by former U.S. President Jimmy maries of current issues, as well as all the programmes we have in the conti- ~frterand Rosalynn Carter. Thecenter is overviews of the diverse perspectives nent. ACORD currently coordinates a net- dqdicated to resolving conflicts and fight- contributing to the foreign policy debate. work of NGOs, academics and other iqdisease, hunger, poverty, and oppres- Please contact ACCESS or their web- interested organisations and individuals sipthrough collaborative projects in the page for their publications and guides in the issues of conflict, development and aqeas of democratization and develop- such as The ACCESS Guide to Ethnic Con- peace, called CODEP. ACORD is also part ment, global health, and urban revitaliza- flicts in Europe and the Former Soviet Union. of a consortium carrying out a three-year tion.

Refuge, Vol. 15, No. 4 (1996) 29 1995: Intemutional Guide to NGO Activities in bining incentives, sanctions, and me- E-mail: [email protected] Conflict Prevention and Resolution. diation. http: / /www.soros.org/migmon.html State of World Conflict Report: A Publication of Upon its return, the team presents a The Open Society Institute Forced Migra- the International Negotiation Network report or map of how to resolve or tion Projects monitor circumstancesin dif- manage the conflict for review by the ferent regions of the world in order to Council on Foreign Relations; Center ~dvis&y~rou~. The map is prepared provide the international community for Preventive Action in terms accessible to a wide policy with early warning of forced movements audience. The CPA then publishes a of people, and to identify the social, eco- Dr. Barnett R. Rubin, Director report, briefs political adother lead- nomic, and political conditions which Center for Preventive Action ers, writes articles and opinion pieces, may cause such dislocations. The Projects Council on Foreign Relations instigates Congressional hearings and encourage early and effective huma~tar- 58 East 68th Street other actions. The Center seeks to de- ian responses to migration emergencies; New York, NY 10021, USA ploy all the means at the command of advocate the humane treatment of those Tel.: (212) 734-0400 the Council on Foreign Relations to unable to return; urge permanent solu- Fax: (212) 517-4967 mobilize the American and interna- tions for those displaced; and promote E-mail: [email protected] tional communities to organize action measures that avert individuals' need to The Center for Preventive Action is an ini- to prevent conflict from escalating, or flee. tiative of the council onForeignRelations better, to resolve it. to study and test conflict preventiod-to A CPA working group visited the International Alert learn whether and how preventive agtion South Balkans in December 1995 to can work by doing it. Many of today's study potential conflicts inMacedonia Kumar Rupesinghe, Secretary General most serious international proble*s- and Kosovo. The Center is also form- Jeremy Bristol, Early Warning OfFcer ethnic conflicts, failing states, and hu- ing a working group on Nigeria. The International Alert manitarian disasters-could, potentially, group will both study ways out of the be averted or ameliorated with effeptive current transition impasse and ad- 1 Glyn Street, London, SEll5HT, United Kingdom early attention. Yet few have attempted to dress the broader political and eco- put this idea into practice, and even fewer nomic structural decay in Nigeria. Tel.: (+44 171) 793-8383 have evaluated such attempts. The CPA The Center also collaborates with Fax: (+44 171) 793-7975 uses the unique resources of the medber- other organizations engaged in preven- E-mail: [email protected] ship of the Council on Foreign Relafions tive action. In cooperation with the Afri- Please see the article in this issue for fur- to address this lack of action and uader- can American Institute, Refugees ther information. In addition to the efforts standing. International, and Search for Common described therein, Jeremy Bristol, in col- The primary function of the CPA i$ to Ground, the Center has helped to organ- laboration with Susanne Scluneidl at the learn about conflict prevention by eqgag- ize the Burundi Policy Forum since Janu- Centre for Refugee Studies, York Univer- ing the members of the Council in bvch ary 1995. This Forum coordinates conflict sity, is working on a directory of all cur- efforts. The CPA sends team$ to prevention activities in Burundi of North rent early warning mechanisms and pre-explosion crisis areas. These tdams American-based organizations with the databases. map out a strategy to settle or managle the U.S. government,the United Nations, and conflicts and then advocate action b$ ap- a similar European Burundi forum coor- InterWorks propriate governments and orgaiiea- dinated by International Alert in London. Jim Good tions, national and international, private The Forum has become the focal point for InterWorks and public: discussion of Burundi in the United 116 North Few Street An Advisory Group of Council mem- States, advocating a number of compre- Madison, WI 53703, USA bers, including diverse and experi- hensive policies on the part of the U.S. and Tel.: (608) 251-9440 enced practitioners and expprts, other governments and supporting the Fax: (608) 251-9150 works in consultation with the CPA's peace efforts of the UN Special Repre- E-mail: [email protected] sentative of the Secretary General in professional staff to choose puch InterWorks has worked with UNHCR for ~urundi. pre-explosion areas of conflict for FPA the past ten years in training for emer- The Center is funded by the Carnegie action. The Advisory Group alsp as- gency management of refugee influxes. Corporation of New York, the Twentieth sists in assembling the teams. These trainings have been offered about The teams visit the area for app oxi- Century Fund (for joint projects), and the three times a year, around the globe for mately two weeks. There, theYtalk not United States Institute of Peace (Burundi Policy forum). the last ten years. only to politicians, but to busilness We have written several training leaders, religious leaders, journdists, pieces for different UN agencies and oth- nongovernmental organizations, and Forced Migration Projects* ers on Early Warning, including updates anyone else who can contribute to Arthur C. Helton, Director on this or that "new initiative" and some their understanding of the codlict. of the computer-based networksbeing set The group investigates both possible Forced Migration Projects terms of a settlement and methods of Open Society Institute, New York, USA UP. bringing about a settlement by com- Tel.: (212) 887-0634 Fax: (212) 489-8455

Rduge, Vol. 15, No. 4 (1996) Minnesota Advocates for armed conflict. Those mechanisms will codr hated by the Institute for Resource Humanitarian Rights Conflict include structures and activities of the and kcurity Studies (IRSS). Prevention Project (MAHR) United Nations and regional intergovern- ~EECMproposed to undertake a mental organizations and key interna- three-year pilot project in Bosnia, Croatia, Janelle M. Diller, Project Consultant tional and regional nongovernmental Hungary, Serbia, Slovakia, and Slovenia 2306 Dexter Ave. organizations. Brief references may be to banefit those countries and create new Silver Spring, Maryland 20902-5014, USA made to certain mechanisms triggered in practices for wider application. Within Tel.: (301) 593-9698 situations of armed conflict (e.g., peace the six countries, the project will develop Fax: (301) 681-6745 enforcement actions under chapter VII of a sy$tem for information exchange, will E-mail: the United Nations Charter).Mechanisms establish consultative mechanisms topur- dillerj%[email protected] under development but not yet opera- sue coordination opportunities, and will Barbara Frey, Executive Director tional will be excluded except where linkup indigenous NGOs witheach other. MAHR deemed to be of sufficient potential to The Activities will yield the followingben- 400 Second Avenue South, Suite 1050 merit attention. efits~ Minneapolis, Minnesota 55401-2408, USA aiccessible, timely information ex- Tel.: (612) 341-3302 Partnership to Enhance the change; Fax: (612) 341-2971 Effectiveness of Conflict empowerment of indigenous conflict E-mail: [email protected] Management management practitioners; MAHR is preparing an Early Warning itnproved coordination of conflict Gordon Thompson, Executive Director qanagement programs; Handbook in an effort to help integrate Institute for Resource and Security iinproved matching of conflict man- the work of human rights groups with the Studies conflict prevention process. The Hand- agement capabilities to needs; 27 Ellsworth Avenue better integration of conflict manage- book will present a methodology that can Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, USA ment with other humanitarian and be characterized as a three-step process: Tel.: (617) 491-5177 (1) gathering information accurately; (2) peace building function; and Fax: (617) 491-6904 the creation of bridges between: users evaluating and reporting significant in- E-mail: [email protected] rqnd provides of conflict management formation effectively; and (3) advocating ervices; government and nongovern- early warning responses with key conflict International Task Force prevention actors in ways that enhance Berghof Centre for Constructive Conflict went actors; and indigenous and in- tkrnational practitioners. the incorporation of human rights values Management (Berlin) into the conflict prevention process. The Centre for Applied Studies in Interna- Gutlpve, P., and G. Thompson. 1995. "The Handbook is intended to serve, among tional Negotiations (Geneva) Potential Cooperation by the OSCE and other readers, nongovernmental organi- Centre for Strategic and International Ihon-Governmental Actors on Conflict Management." Helsinki Monitor: Quar- zations and civic groups in the areas of Studies (Washington) Conflict Management Group (Cam- terly on Security and Cooperation in Europe, potential or escalating conflict. d(3):5245. The Handbook will focus primarily on bridge, MA) Institute for Resource and Security promoting conflict prevention through PIWM (Interdisciplinary Research the use of human rights monitoring, re- Studies (Cambridge, MA) Paogram on Root Causes of Human porting, and advocacy in situationswhich International Alert (London) have not yet escalated to armed conflict. Partners for Democratic Change (San Rights Violation) The proposed methodology will be of- Francisco) fered to help defuse conflict in situations Search for Common Ground (Washing- Ale%P. Schrnid, Research Director of tensions and disturbances, and to help ton) ~ertbJongman, Research Fellow/Data manage root causes of conflict in postwar PEECM is a partnership of international Mankger phases of reconstructionortransition. The and indigenous NGOs. The partnership PIOQM c/o LISWO, Leiden University methodology will not directly apply in was established to improve the effective- Waslsenaarseweg 52 situations of interstate or internal armed ness of conflict management, a field that 23$3 AK Leiden, The Netherlands conflict or genocide. encompasses efforts to obtain early warn- Tel.: (+3171)5273-861 The fact-finding section in the hand- ing of conflict and interventions that seek Fax: (+3171)5273-788 book will focus on documenting patterns to prevent, mitigate, transform or resolve E-mails: of violations of either individual or group conflicts. Participating NGOs independ- [email protected] rights, rather than isolated instances of ently pursue their own conflict manage- [email protected] violations. Thematic focuses will be se- ment programs, but will work together to PIOOM is a scientific research program, lected with reference to root causes of con- exchange informationand identify oppor- the aim of which is the reduction of hu- flict; those focuses will likely implicate tunities for collaborative action. While ma6 rights violations throughout the civil, political, labour, social, economic many PEECM activities will have a re- world. PIOOMis a Netherlands-based, in- and cultural rights. gional focus, the partnership seeks to pro- dependent, nonpartisan, nonprofit or- The handbook will include a survey mote effective conflict management ganization, promoting and engaging in and directory of significant early warning worldwide. The partnership is currently rese~rch.PIOOM's research supports the and conflict prevention mechanisms that work of Amnesty International and other are operational in situations short of

Refige, Vol. 15, No. 4 (1996) - human rights organizations, as well as Jongman, A. J. 1996 (forthcoming)(ed.). Con- demics involved in early warning re- UN-agencies. It strives to lay bare the tempora y Genocides. Causes, Cases, Conse- search and policy makers from govern- ideological, economic, social, cultiral, quences. Leiden, LISWO. (forthcoming). ments and prominent international historical and political roots that ledd to Schmid, A. P., and A. J. Jongman (eds).1995. organizations will be in attendance. The human rights violations. PIOOM dso Monitoring Human Rights Violations.Boul- integration of policy responses within strives to identify factors that inhibit hu- der, Colorado: Westview Press. academic research will ensure that the man rights violations. Jongman,A. J., and A. P. Schrnid. 1994. Moni- resulting early warning analysis will be The Center for the Study of Social @on- toring Human Rights. Manual for Assessing sensitive to the needs of policy makers. flicts (COMT) of Leiden University i$ the County Performance. Leiden, LISWO. headquarters for PIOOM's internawnal Crelinsten, R. D., and A. P. Schmid. 1994. The The Strategy Group network of PIOOM associates who cqn be Politics of Pain. Torturers and Their Mas- found in nearly fifty countries aroung the ters. Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press. Larry Seaquist, Chairman, CEO world. The initiator of PIOOM is J. D. The Strategy Group Backer, Rear Adm. Rtd., and fodmer PreventiodEady Warning Unit, 1280 21st Street, NW,Suite 904 Chairman of the Dutch section of p4m- Centre for Refugee Studies Washington, D.C. 20036, USA' nesty International. The PIOOM Fou/nda- Tel.: (202) 544-5829 tion was established on October 4,1888. Howard Adelman, Director Fax: (202) 544-5831 PIOOM's basic research prograinme Susanne Schrneidl, Coordinator E-mail: [email protected] consists of seven projects. These have Prevention/Early Warning Unit The Strategy Group is a new international been outlined in: Centre for Refugee Studies (CRS) "do tank" based in Washington, D.C. but Schmid, A. P. Research on Gross Human qights York University with an international cast of issues and Violations: A Programme, 2nd enlqrged York Lanes, 3rd Floor, 4700 Keele Street associates. One of our key projects is the edition, with commentaries bk C. North York, Ontario, M3J 1P3, Canada "Venice Process," a major project con- Flinterman, K. J. Gantzel, T. R. Gurq, and Tel.: (416) 736-5883 ducted in association with UNESCO M. McClintock. Preface by A. J. F. Fax: (416) 736-5837 aimed at (in our alternative phrase for Kiibben, Leiden, COMT, 1989 (1~988). E-mails: [email protected] 'early warning') "Early Strategic Engage- 245p. [email protected] ment." This applied early warning effort Two questions are central to the wark of We are currently engaged in several on- seeks to foster both the development of a PIOOM: going projects with the aim of developing theoretical basis for preventative inter- 1) What are the causal factors bqhind an early warning network. The main goal ventions and the developmentof an inter- gross human rights violations? is to develop a comprehensive academic- national framework of processes and 2) What are the optimal strategip to NGO-policy consortium to create a work- professional "doing early warning." counter contemporary human 'ghts able, effective, economic and violations and to prevent future iola- cost-recoverable early warning system to 11. Early Warning within the tions? t deal with humanitarian emergencies, United Nations System Project Titles (please contact PIOOM for complex emergencies and conflict areas. further information): (See article in this issue for more detail.) 1) Toward a GlobalMap of GrossHqman Early Warning Activity at the United Second, Dr. Susanne Schmeidl and Nations High Commissioner for Rights Violations Conflicts iq the JeremyBristol of International Alert, Lon- 1980s and Beyond don, are compiling a directory on existing Refugees* 2) Determinants of Gross Human R/ights early warning efforts worldwide. Their Udo Janz, Chief Violations by State and State- pon- work, as well as that of others, will appear Information and Research Management sored Actors in Domestic Con31 icts, in a special issue of Refuge: Canada's Peri- Centre for Documentation and Research 196&1990 odical on Refugees entitled "The Early 3)-6) These projects deal respective19 with (CDR) Warning of Humanitarian Disasters." United Nations High Commissioner for Policy and Prison Officers as Gross Third, the Prevention/Early Warning Refugees (UNHCR) Human Rights (GHR) Violators/; The Unit is overseeing electronic discussion Case Postale 2500 Military as GHR Violator, and Vigi- group on early warning issues (EWNET- CH-1211 Geneva D6p8t 2, Switzerland lante Groups and Death Squafls as L). The purpose of the group is to provide Tel.: (+4122) 739-8555 GHR Violators. . I a platform for researchers (academic and Fax: (+4122) 739-7367 7) Determinants of the Independence non-academic) and policy makers to dis- E-mail: [email protected] and Impartiality of the Judiciad cuss issues related to early warning. This http://www.unicc.org//unhcr/ /pub/ We are also working on a proposal c)n the includes the exchange of research, ideas, refworld/refworld.htm Early Warning of Refugee Migratiop. information etc. on early warning. (See Development of indicators for the early Schmid, A. P. 1996 (ed.). Whither Rejugee? advertisement in this issue on how to Human Rights Violations and Rehgees: join.) warning of population movements, refu- Causes and Consequences. Proceedibgs of Fourth, there will be a workshop on gees and displaced persons. A pilot study PIOOM Symposium of June 17, 1994. "The Synergy of Early Warning Research" is in progress applying indicators to a Leiden, LISWO. (forthcoming). at CRS on March 15-17, 1997. This work- half-dozen countries. shop will address the issues and problems Structured assessments of country to of early warning analysis. Leading aca- situations likely generate refugee flows:

32 Rrfuge, Vol. 15, No. 4 (19%) ' I evaluate issues, developments, groups in tion base that pulls from a wide-reaching i III. Selected Efforts of conflict and international responses. Par- network. This tool is meant to ensure that ~ovenunents/Governmental ticipates in UN inter-agency meetings on decision-makers are better informed and Organisations early warning; situation summariesavail- have the maximum amount of time, and able on request. REFWORLD CD-ROM consequently a larger set of options, published biannually. needed to prevent crises from erupting. It State Failure Task Force* REFWORLD on CD-ROM is a collec- is evident that the number of options tion of databases developed by the available to the international community Jack 4. Goldstone UNHCR Centre for Documentation and decreases as a situation deteriorates or Depqrtment of Sociology Research (CDR). REFWORLD contains descends into violence. Univprsity of California, Davis authoritative information on refugees in- The purpose of the HEWS is to com- Davi$, California 956168701, USA cluding current country reports, legal and pile and analyse information from a Tel.: 1916) 752-0784 policy-related documents and literature number of sources in order to identify po- Fax (916) 752-0783 references. tential crises with humanitarian implica- E-mqil: [email protected] CDR is an information, research and tions. Currently, the database contains Ted eobert Gurr training centre for UNHCR. It is dedicated information on over one hundred coun- Center for International Development to providing reliable and current informa- tries, with more intense analysis of par- and conflict Management (CIDCM) tion and analysis on all aspects relating to ticularly vulnerable areas. hformation is Suita 0145, Tydings Hall refugees and displaced persons, includ- of two types, quantitativeand qualitative, UniVersity of Maryland ing their countries of origin, legal instru- and includes reporting from the various Coudge Park, MD 20742-7231, USA ments, human rights, minorities, early warning systems that exist, for ex- Tel,: (301) 314-7706 situations of conflict, and conflict resolu- ample, in the food and agriculture sector. Fax: K301) 314-9256 tion. UN information, from both the headquar- E-mail: [email protected] If you would like to subscribe to this ters- and field-levels, is supplemented Pamela T. Surko valuable research tool, please write to the with that from outside sources. Recogniz- Sciedce Applications International CDR at the address above or through e- ing that much critical information and Coqoration mail [email protected]. many useful insights rest outside of the P.O. Box 1303 UN, the challenge has been to harness this McLkan, VA 22102, USA HEWS-Humanitarian Early expertise as and when appropriate. Daniel C. Esty Warning System Early warning is necessary but not suf- ficient to prevent or even prepare for cri- Schod of Forestry and Environmental ses. Credible signals must translate into Studbes Elizabeth V. Kassinis Yale university Adeel Ahrned early and effective action. Thus, informa- tion on potential crisis situations, such as 370 Prospect Street Policy and Analysis Division New Haven, CT 06511, USA Department of Humanitarian Affairs the reports HEWS generates, are fed into the consultation processes that determine Tel.: (203) 432-1602 United Nations E-rnqiil: [email protected] New York, NY 10017, USA what actions should be taken either to- Harff Tel.: (212) 963-1143 wards preventing crises or preparing for Barbara Department of Political Science Fax: (212) 963-3115 their impact. DHA is thus able to focus U.S. Naval Academy E-mails: [email protected] attention on situations of concern in dis- Ann~polis,MD 21402, USA [email protected] cussions with its humanitarian partners as well as with other departments within Pho$e/Fax: (410) 293-6863 Prevention is the most effective way of re- the UN Secretariat. E-mail: [email protected] ducing the human suffering and material Thisstudy was prepared in response to a destruction that are the inevitable results ReliefWeb request from Vice-president Gore. In July of conflict. As a well-recognized tool to 1994, he asked the Central Intelligence assist the international community in Sharon Rusu Agehcy to work with outside experts to achieving the goal of prevention, early Head of Information Services de$ipand carry out a study on the failure warning has received an increasing Information Management and External of stiates. He asked that the consultants amount of attention in the last few years. Relations Branch develop a methodology that would iden- Using as its focal point the collection, United Nations, Department of Hu- tify key factors and critical thresholds sig- analysis, and dissemination of early manitarian Affairs (UNDHA) nalling a high risk of crisis two years in warning information in the humanitarian 8-14 avenue de la Paix, advqince. He suggested going back forty field, the Department of Humanitarian CHI211 Geneva 10, Switzerland yetins to identify examples of serious do- Affairs (DHA) has established the Hu- Tel.: (+4122)917-2661 mestic crisis. The State Failure Task Force manitarian Early Warning System Fax: (+4122)917-0023 was established to take on this work. (HEWS).Setting up such a system was not E-mail: [email protected] Coaposed of distinguished experts from seen as an end unto itself. Instead it was http: / /www/reliefweb.int academic institutions, data collection and conceived as a way to support decision management specialists from the Consor- making with a well organized informa- For a description please see the article on ReliefWeb in this issue. tiud for InternationalEarth Science Infor- matkon Network (CIESIN), analytic

Refirge, Vol. 15, No. 4 (1996) 33 methods professionals from Science Ap- Report 77 Massachusetts Avenue, E53-470 plications International Corporabon The senior consultants are preparing sum- Cambridge, MA 02139-4307, USA (SAIC), and senior government offiaials, maries of the study's initial results and Tel.: (617) 253-5262 the group met frequently in plenary ses- implications for publication in scholarly Fax: (617) 258-6164 sions and in smaller units to address irari- journals. A request to make the full report E-mail: [email protected] ous aspects of the study. generally available through the U.S. CASCON is a computer-aided system on The study is the first compreherlsive Government's Technical Information the analysis of conflicts. This project is a empirical effort to identify the correlates Service is pending decision in the Vice- spinoff of many years of research under of state failure. It analyses inductikely President's office (9/96). In the interim, the direction of Lincoln Bloomfield at MIT some 600 possible contributing factors, address queries to Ms. Leslie Arron, Con- on the subject of local conflict and its pre- many of them suggested by prior aca- tracts Manager, Science Applications In- vention. The results of that research, in- demic research on cases and causes cif re- ternational corporation, P.O. Box 1303, cluding the model on which CASCON gime crisis and breakdown. Sederal McLean, VA 22102. rests, are explained in Bloomfield and simplebut powerful models are idendfied Leiss (1969). that may help guide U.S. foreign p$licy U.S. Agency for International The software remained under devel- makers. Development opment as a sideline, and an experimental In predicting specific country failvres, DOS version on floppies was completed Heather S. McHugh, Sr. Research Analyst the work is less fully developed. In eed, in the late 1980s, including a manual. The USAID/Center for Development the study has four significant limitat4 ons: software has been developed by Information and Evaluation 1) Data gaps and irregularities red+~ed Bloomfield's associate Allen Moulton. PPC/CDIE/DI/R&RS SA-18, Room 203G the extent to which the role of dome MIT has been making that version avail- Washington, DC 20523-1820, USA variables could be analysed. able at cost to users who request it. A Tel.: (703) 875-4974 2) Although associations were discov- forthcoming book by Bloomfield (1996) ered between a number of varirjbles Fax: (703) 875-5269 E-mail: [email protected] will contain a new version of CASCON and state failure, these linkages can- for Windows. The previous database con- not be said to demonstrate cause and USAID is engaged in a variety of initia- sisted of sixty-six cases, while the new effect. tives that deal, at least peripherally, with version has eighty-five coded by three 3) Although the task force develqped early warning. The Policy Bureau has experts each for 571 factors. sponsored two recent workshops on early models that discriminate betwee4 his- Bloomfield, L., and A. Leiss. 1969. Controlling torical failures cases and control cjases warning of state collapse, one 1994 and Small Wars. Knopf. with an accuracy rate of about sevhty one in 1995. These workshops brought together USAID, U.S. Dept. of State, other Bloomfield, L. 1996. Managing Conflict at the percent, this same level of accqracy Turn of the Century. St. Martin's Press. cannot be guaranteed on a for+ard U.S. government agencies, academics, (forthcoming). look basis. NGO leaders, other donors, to discuss 4) Given the qualified success in diph- these issues. Also, USAID is part of the Bloomfield, L. 1994. "The Premature Burial inter-agency Greater Horn of -Africa Id- of Global Law and Order: Looking be- guishing failures from non-fail$res, yond the Three Cases from Hell." The input from country experts must con- tiative, which has a team focused on early Washington Quarterly, 17(3):14541. tinue to guide any assessment ojf fu- warning and prevention. The GHAI . ture risks of state failure. RADARS Team has had a number of early Center for Security Studies and warning experts brief the team on their Selected Findings Conflict Research* Of the thirty-one variables identifiqd as systems (Doug Bond, Ted Gurr, Lincoln significant discriminators betweeq the Bloomfield, etc.). Most recently, USAID's Kurt R. Spillmann, Director problem countries and the controls, the Center for Development Information and Andreas Wenger, Research Associate best predictors of state failure from $955 Evaluation has been asked to prepare in- Center for Security Studies and Conflict to 1994 werehigh infant mortality and low formation on early warning systems and Research trade openness. The relative effect of hese preventive action. As the designated re- Swiss Federal Institute of Technology two variables varied with a country's searcher, Heather McHugh has written a Zurich, ETH Zentrum SEU level of democracy. Low trade ope$ess short paper on preventive diplomacy, and CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland was more strongly associated witH the an annotated bibliography on early warn- Tel.: (+411) 632-4025 risk of state failure in less democtatic ing systems. Fax: (+411)363-9196 countries, while high infant mortalityi was E-mail: [email protected] more strongly associated with the rihk of IV. Academic Departments and http://www.fsk.ethz.ch/abo,fsk.htm state failureinmore democraticcounbies. Early Warning Research Main Research Areas, Organizational In particular, rates of trade opennessl and Structure infant mortality relative to the world me- The Center for Security Studies and Con- dian levels proved useful indicators of CASCON-Computer-Aided System risks of state failure. for Analyzing Conflicts flict Research, founded in 1986 and based at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technol- Funding Lincoln P. Bloomfield, Professor Emeritus ogy in Ziirich, is an independent academic Central Intelligence Agency to Science Political Science institution researching and teaching in the Applications International Corporatjop. Massachusetts Institute of Technology 0 fields of security policy and conflict analy-

34 Rep,Vol. 15, No. 4 (1996) sis. It relies on a holistic concept of secu- Kumar Rupesinghe, Secretary General e relationship between economics rity encompassing military, poiitical, eco- International Alert and"t s perpower involvement in armed nomic, social and ecological dimensions. 1Glyn Street conflirt has concerned several research- The work of the Center is focused on three London, SEll5HT, United Kingdom ers. Acomprehensive analysis of the links main research areas: Tel.: (+44 171) 793-8383 betwden raw material needs and super- 1. Swiss security policy; Fax: (+44 171) 793-7975 power military interventionsin the Third 2. international, primarily U.S. and Eu- E-mail: [email protected] World has been done (Hammarstrom ropean, security policy; The research programme was designed as 1986J1993). Conflicts concerning re- 3. basic conflict and peace research. a scholarly, international social science re- soutcbin particular regions, i.e. the South Within these broad topics, certain cur- sponse to Boutros Ghali's agenda for China Sea, are now being analysed. An- rent developments are of special interest peace. It is focused on providing interdis- other factor has been starvation and food to the Center. Regarding the conse- ciplinary knowledge that can be of help to price$ in connection with internal and in- quences of the end of the Cold War, the the governmental, intergovernmental terdtgte conflicts in Africa and Asia political upheavals in Europe, the quest and nongovernmental members of the (Wdlknsteen 1988a). Related to this field for a new European security architecture, UN system with special interests in con- are $+dies on the linkages between envi- and the economic and political consolida- flict prevention. Our first major project ronmental degradation and conflict tion of the Western European nations, at- will be a coordinated study of conflict pre- (Swain 1993a; 1993b). An ongoing project tention is devoted to the changing Swiss vention successes and failures, with cases on tkiis theme is investigating environ- role in a volatile international environ- taken from Latin American, Asian, Afri- mendally induced population migration ment. The Center is also closely following, can, European experience. This research and its contribution to native-migrant and contributing to, the domestic debate is funded by the Carnegie Corporation of conflFcts in South Asia (Swain). Research on the official Swiss security policy con- New York on a two year grant. Tentative atte4ion has recently been given to global cept. Furthermore, the Center's research book title: Alarms and Responses: A Com- watei. issues (Wallensteen, Swain). is concerned with methodological ap- parative Study on Contemporary Al major project deals with the diffuse proaches to risk analysis. In the realm of International Efforts to Anticipate and Pre- effdcts of military conflicts across regions, international security policy, the focus is vent Violent Conflict. bewen 1919 and 1992. Using a compara- on historical aspects of U.S. foreign and tive perspective, this project attempts to Alker, H., T. R. Gum, and K. Rupesinghe. security policy, on the origins and the fu- 1995. "Conflict Early Warning Systems: anal$se the interaction processes and re- ture development of the North Atlantic An Initial Research Program." Paper Pre- gional contexts through which interstate Treaty Organization (NATO), and on sented at the Annual Meeting of thehter- conflict diffusion occurs (Hammarstrom models for anew European security struc- national Studies Association, Chicago, 1993b; 1993b; 1994). ture. Attention in the field of peace and February 21-24. One study focuses on the links be- conflict research is devoted to comparing tweqn domestic problems and interstate relevant theories of conflict and war. An- Department of Peace and Conflict conflict (Heldt), and another deals with thropological, structural, and-most re- Research, Uppsala University the escalation of ethnic conflict cently-ecological explanations are (Melander).The links between changes in included. This theoretical approach is Peter Wallensteen military capabilities and the escalation of complemented by empirical analyses of Department of Peace and Conflict Re- protracted conflicts are also studied local and regional conflicts. The conflict search (HoUmberg). research group is presently engaged in the Uppsala University lbata on armed conflicts are continu- Environment and Conflicts Project Gamala Torget 3; Box 514 ous& collected and statistics on major (ENCOP), in conjunction with external in- 5-751 20 Uppsala, Sweden d conflicts have been published in stitutions. Tel.: (+46 18) 18-23-52 Yearbook since 1988. As of 1993 The Center maintains an extensive list Fax: (+46 18) 69-51-02 a list of all armed conflicts appears inJour- of publications on general subjects in the Telex: 76982 UPACS S nal tf Peace Research. This is a basic re- field. Please consult the web-page for a E-mail: [email protected] souq'ce primarily for research. Regularly a listing. report of all armed conflicts is published The research activities can be divided into on alregular basis, entitled States in Armed two areas: 1) the origins and dynamics of Conflict Early Warning Systems Conflict (Wallensteen 1989, K. Lindgren conflict and 2) conflict resolution and in- 1991, Heldt 1992, Axel1 1993, Nordlander (CEWS) Research Programme of ternational security issues. The analysis of the International Social Sciences 1994, Sollenberg 1995). The information peace research is going as well as the pro- has been used to study civilian casualties Council. duction of research-based education ma- in wars (Ahlstrom & Nordquist 1991). terials. Hayward Alker, Coordinator, CEWS 2) qontlict Resolution and International School of International Relations 1. The Origins and Dynamics of Conflict. Security Issues University of Southern California The Department has carried out several An important concern is the issue of dura- VonKleinSmid Center, Room 328 studies on wars and confrontations in re- ble iconflict resolution. This includes de- Los Angeles, CA 900894043, USA cent history, and on economic dependen- velbpment of concepts and theory Tel.: (213) 740-2152 cies and their significance for the outbreak (Wallensteen, Nordquist, Heldt) and em- Fax: (213) 742-0281 of war (Wallensteen 1973; 1981; 1984). piri~alstudies of specific types of conflicts E-mail: [email protected] and areas (Nordquist 1983/1992). In par-

Refige, Vol. 15, No. 4 (1996) 35 1 I

ticular, the durable settlement of border Early Warning of Genocides and Gurr, T. R., and B. Harff.1996 (forthcoming). conflicts has been studied (Norqquist Politicides Early Warning of Communal Conflict and 1992). In this context, studies on cblhflict Genocide: Linking Empirical Research to In- resolution and peacekeeping in Southeast Barbara Harff, Principal Investigator ternational Responses. Tokyo: UN Univer- Asia and Asia Pacific have beeq com- Michael Dravis, Research Assistant (see sity Press. pleted (Amer 1989; 1993). also Minorities at Risk) A comprehensive textbook on cptflict Department of Political Science Early Warning in Russia resolution has recently been publisqied, in U.S. Naval Academy Swedish (Wallensteen 1994b).An iqterest Annapolis, MD 21402, USA Eugene Kritski, Director in mediation processes has also eniekged Phone/Fax: (410) 293-6863 North Caucasian Centre (Wallensteen 1991, Nordquist). Anongo- E-mail: [email protected] Institute for Social and Political Re- ing project is studying the dynamic? of in- The research focuses on testing sequential search tegration as a parallel process, +bere models of the causes of genocide and mass Russian Academy of Science integration may be a cause of conf/lirt as political murder (politicide). The model PO Box 63,350048 Krasnodar, Russia well as a process towards endurinb con- identifies background and intervening E-mail: kritskiG3eawarn.kuban.s~ flict resolution (~sberg). conditions plus types of "accelerators," I have been am a member of the Network Several regional studies are al$q un- defined as "events that rapidly increase of Ethnological Monitoring on Early dertaken. Please consult to the WWW- the level or significance of the most vola- Warning of Ethnic Conflict sponsored by page or write to the departmept for tile of the general conditions." Multiple the Institute of Ethnology & Anthropol- information. Also consult the weu-page categories of accelerators are specified ogy (Russian Academy of Sciences) and for an extensive list of publicatioq. and information on them was gathered Conflict Management Group (Harvard Promoting Peace Research: The fievel- systematicallyfor 18-month periods prior University) since 1993. I also collaborate opment of the field of peace and c+nflict to the onset of genocidal or near-genocidal with the Network of Ethnic Studies (Ul- research is analysed in Peace Redeqrrch: violence in Rwanda, Burundi, Bosnia, and ster University) and other organisations Achievements and Challenges (Walleqisteen Abkhazia. Some kinds of accelerators dealing with the problem of early warn- 1988b), with contributions from stveral were present in much greater numbers ing. Members of our network are cur- noted researchers in the'internafibnal immediately prior to the onset of the two rently working on creating a model of peace research community. One p rticu- clear-cut cases of genocide (Rwanda, early waming which will monitor inter- lar effort was the development $4 the Bosnia) than in the other two cases. The ethnic tension. This work is in its initial Uppsala ethical principles for reseathers results suggest that monitoring and ana- stage. (Journal of Peace Research, 1984, Vol. 41, No. lysing accelerators is a potentially near- The North-Caucasian branch of the In- 4). real-time method for systematic early stitute of Social and Political Research The 1993 Executive Seminar on Conflikt Pre- waming of impending genocide. makes use of social studies including sur- vention and Conflict Resolution. $xecu- Sources of Funding veys, public opinion polls etc. My latest tive Summary. Uppsala: Dept. of Peace research, entitled Chechen Crisis in Mass See Minorities at Risk and Conflict Research. I Consciousness of the Population of North States in Armed Conflict (1988-1994) Dppt. of Future Research Caucasus (sample=4000 respondents), Peace and Conflict Research. SeveM edi- Additional comparative case studies are analysed the perception of the war in tors: Wallensteen, P. (1989); ~eldt,B. planned. One objective is to test the Chechnia by the inhabitants of contigu- (1992), Axell, K. (1993), Nordlanc$er, Y. generalizability of the findings of the ini- ous regions, ethnic status, ethnic stere- (1994), Sollenberg, M. (1995). tial studies. The second is to identify otypes, and used them as indicators of Wallensteen, P. 1973. Structure and qr:On points in the sequence at which different potential interethnic conflicts. This study International Relations, 1920-1968. ptock- kinds of preventive diplomacy and other was published in Moscow in 1995. holm: Rabn & Sjogren. interventions have been attempted, and Currently, I am working on a project Wallensteen, P. 1981. "Incompatibili to assess their effectiveness or lack of ef- entitled "Mass consciousness in the zone frontation and War: Four Mod3:a:d fect in checking the onset and escalation of of conflict and war," which will entail Three Historical Systems, 1816- 5176." violence. field research in Chechnia. Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 18.~0~1. Harff, B. 1992. "Bosnia and Somalia: Strate- Wallensteen, P. 1988b. Peace Re4earch: gic, Legal, and Moral Dimensions of Hu- ENCOP-Environment and Conflicts Achievements and Challenges. Boplder: manitarian Intervention," Reportfrom the Project* Westview. Institute for Philosophy and Public Policy Wallensteen, P. 1991. "Is There a Rqle for (University of Maryland, College Park) Kurt R. Spillmann, Director Third Parties in the Prevention of N dear 12(3/4):1-7. Center for Security Policy and Conflict War?" In Behaviour, Society and &clear Harff, B. 1994. "A TheoreticalModelof Geno- Research War, edited by P. E. Tetlock et all New cides and Politicides." Journal of Ethno- ETH-Zentrum York: Oxford University Press. Development. 4(July):2&30. 8092 Zurich, Switzerland Harff, B., and T. R. Gurr. 1995. "Victims of the Tel.: (+411)632-4025/4020 State: Genocides, Politicides and Group Fax: +(41 1) 363-9196 Repression from 1945 to 1995." PIOOM E-mail: [email protected] Newsletter and Progress Report. (7 Win- http: / /www.fsk.ethz.ch/encop/ ter):24-38. I

36 Wge,Vol. 15, No. 4 (1996) Guenther Baechler, Executive Director GEDS (Global Event-Data System) ell: 81-426) 91-9420 swiss Peace Foundation PROJECT-University of Maryland Fax: 181-426) 91-9431 Wasserwerkgasse 7, P.O. Box homepage: http: / / 3011 Bern, Switzerland John L. Davies, Director, GEDS Project sui$%ate.t.soka.ac.jp/ Tel.: (+4131)311-5582 Center for International Development E-mdil: [email protected] Fax: (+4131)311-5583 and Conflict Management ~lob(a1Early Warning System for Dis- E-mail: [email protected] and Department of Government and placqd Persons (Forced Migration ) was Environmental pollution and ecological Politics fownped in 1984. The FUGI (Futures of degradation are becoming ever greater Tydings Hall Rrn. 0145 Global Interdependence ) global model causes of conflict. There have always been University of Maryland desiped by Onishi canbe used as a global wars over scarce non-renewable re- College Park, MQ 20742, USA early warning system for displaced per- sources. But only in our time has the non- Tel.: (301) 314-7709 sons (forced migration ) because it classi- sustainable exploitation and misuse of Fax: (301) 314-9256 fies the world into 180 countries and vital renewable resources such as soil, E-mail: [email protected] regibnal groups where each country and/ vegetation, water, and air become a main The GEDS Project is an ongoing effort to or rdgional model has four major subsys- topic in both domestic and international develop a system for tracking interna- tem$ such as (1) the environment; (2) de- politics. The trans-border character of tional and domestic interactions world- velopment; (3) peace and security; (4) these ecological problems turns them into wide, providing narrative and analytical human rights. GEWS predicts the possi- a source of conflicts between states. Bv descriptions of events from on-line news ble occurrence of displaced persons jeopardizing the natural base for eco- reports, including codings (inter alia) for (forded migration) using the following nomic and social development and caus- conflict intensity, level of cooperation, inditators: (1) the destruction of the envi- ing migration movements, environmental parties directly and indirectly involved, rotuhent; (2) failures in development; (3) a degradation can also lead to internal re- issue type, casualties, etc. The GEDS data lack of peace and security; and (4) the vio- volts and violent clashes between ethnic canbe generated near-real-time as needed latidn of human rights in each country or groups. for early warning purposes, and can be regibn. Environmental problems are seldom further coded for specific "accelerator" Onidhi, A. 1986. "A New Generation FUGI the only cause of conflicts. However, categories described in early warning Model-A Global Early Warning System when interwoven with such elements as models such as those developed by Ted hr ~ationalandIntemational~onflicts." population growth, poverty and injustice Robert Gurr and Barbara Harff (see the $I Contributions of Technology to Internu- they increasingly contribute to existing Minorities at Risk and Genocide Project). tiional Conflict Resolution, edited by H. and future political tensions. The avoid- Current research projects include evalua- bestnut, 39-55. IFAC: Pergamon Press. ance or peaceful settling of conflicts in- tions of the models developed by Gurr Oniqhi, A. 1987. "Global Early Warning Sys- duced by environmentaldegradation will and Harff; use of COPDAB (Conflict and tem for Displaced Persons: Interlinkages be one of the most pressing of mankind's Peace Data Bank)-scale time-series data Of Environment, Development, Peace problems in the near future. Research on conflict intensity to predict outbreak of bdHuman Rights." Journal of Technologi- done at ENCOP includes: civil war; and development of a capacity (a1 Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 1. The role of desertification and envi- for automated pre-coding of events to al- W3). ronmental refugees in the civil war in low for broader coverage of Omi$hi, A. 1990. "Uses of Global Models: A Sudan; near-real-time events than is possible New Generation FUGI Model for Projec- 2. The impact of climate change, defor- with computer-assisted human coding. tions and Policy Simulations of the World estation and water diversion on the Dynamic GEDS data is also being inter- ~conomy."International Political Science intra/interstate relations in Bangla- faced with structural data profiling states Review, Vol. 11 (No.2):280-93. desh; and non-state communities (initially Oniphi, A. 1995. "FUGI Global Model as 3. The influence of ecological degrada- Gurr's Minorities at Risk and Polity data) GEWS (Global Early Warning System tion on ethnic relations in Nigeria; and episodic data (initially Wilkenfeld Model)." In The Proceedings of the 1995 4. The struggle over shared water re- and Brecker's International Crisis Behav- Pummer Computer Simulation Conference, edited by T.I. Oren and L. G. Birta, 1070- iour data) to provide more comprehen- sources in the Middle East; 177. Ottawa, Canada: SCS. 5. Water scarcity and soil degradation as sive early warning materials. a source of conflicts in central Asia; Davies, John L., and Chad K. McDaniel C;llc$bal Modelling Research: Toward 6. Environmental stress, ethnic cleans- (1994). "Event Data and Software for tbe Development of a Conflict Alert ing, and tribal conflict in Rwanda; Early Warning." Journal of 7. Large-scale mining and environmen- Ethno-Development, 4(1):72-76. slystem tally induced conflicts. ENCOP publishes a series of Occa- Global Early Warning System for Peter Brecke sional Papers representing intermediate Displaced Persons (Forced SO:ool of International Affairs results of the project. Check the web-page Migration)--GEWS Ge1 rgia Institute of Technology for more information. ~tianta,GA 30332410, USA Akira Onishi, Director Te .: (404) 894-6599 Institute for Systems Science Fa I: (404) 894-1900 Soka University, Ehhail: [email protected] 1-236 Tangi-Cho, Hachioji-shi Tokyo 192, Japan

Refuge, Vol. 15, No. 4 (1996) http://www.inta.gatech.edu/peterJ sembling a database containing a list of all maintain these data sets and are working globmod.htm1 I violent conflicts from 1495 to the present. on new sets covering domestic and inter- The overall project is to develop a Cpnflict The list looks like it will be in excess of nationalconflicts in the PersianGulf, West Alert System, a computer-based system 3,000 cases. For each case I will identify Africa, and the former Yugoslavia. To that generates alerts that a violent cpnflict the conflict according to its status with date, most of our efforts have focused on is going to erupt insome country or fagion respect to different criteria that distin- the development of the program and the anywhere in the world in three to Welve guish different conflicts. (Existing coding dictionaries. We have only re- months. There are several sub-projdcts as- typologies are useful in providing some cently begun working on statistical tech- sociated with this main efforts. of the criteria.) After assembling the data- niques specifically directed at early base, I will use the clustering techniques warning using event data. We anticipate 1) Identifying configurations of confiiqt that numerical taxonomists use to gener- completing several substantive papers early warning indicators ate a hierarchicaltaxonomy of violent con- focusing on statistical early warning tech- This sub-project involves search+$ for flicts. niques in the next two years. combinations-in the form of par ieular configurations--of indicators tha have Brecke, P. 1995. Response section of a Forum Gerner, Deborah J., Philip A. Schrodt, Ronald on "An Early Warning System for the A. Francisco, and Judith L. Weddle. 1994. consistently appeared before di ferent United Nations: Internet or Not?" The Machine Coding of Events from Re- kinds of violent conflicts in the pasi . Once Mershon International Studies Review gional and International Sources. Interna- found, probability statements can be at- 39(2):315-26. tional Studies Quarterly, 38:91-119. tached to the configurations to the/1 effect Brecke, P. 1995. "Using Neural Networks to Schrodt, Philip A. 1994. "Event Data in For- that "When we see this configuqation, Find Harbingers of Violent Conflicts in eign Policy Analysis." In Laura Neack, eighty-eight percent of the time a cpeflict Descriptions of Country Situations." Pa- Jeanne A.K. Hey, and Patrick J. Haney, of this type could erupt within t/welve per 95-3 in the Working Papers Series of Foreign Policy Analysis: Continuity and months." The idea then would be tomoni- the Georgia Consortium on Negotiation Change. New York: Prentice-Hall, pp. tor countries and alert policy and Conflict Resolution, Georgia Insti- 145-66. when a certain configuration assIakers dated tute of Technology. Schrodt, Philip A., and Deborah J. Gerner. with conflict potential is observed Ip or- Brecke, P. 1995. "Using Neural Networks to 1994. "Validity assessment of a der to find specific configurations everal Find Harbingers of Violent Conflicts." machine-coded event data set for the issues need to be addressed: a) mi thods Paper presented at the IFAX/SWIIS Con- Middle East, 1982-1992." American Jour- need to be developed that can apply pat- ference, Vienna, Austria. (The paper will nal of Political Science, 38:825-54. tern recognition techniques to cpnflict be published in the Proceedings of the Schrodt, Philip A., Shannon G. Davis, and early warning indicators; b) inditators, conference by Pergamon Press in 1996.) JudithL. Weddle. 1994. "Political Science: when in combination with each otvt.cre- KEDSNA Program for the Machine Cod- ate the harbinger configurations, leed to Kansas Event Data System (KEDS) ing of Event Data." Social Science Compu- be identified; c) data correspondin to the ter Review 12(3):561-88. indicators needs to be collected; d) iffer- Philip Schrodt, Principal Investigator ent types of violent conflicts nee Ito be Deborah Gerner, Principal Investigator The Lester B. Pearson Canadian specified; and e) finally pattern rdcogni- Phillip Huxtable Department of Political Science International Peacekeeping Training tion techniques need to be applie to the Centre* data collected. The first componentd d this University of Kansas, Blake Hall sub-project is complete. I am w+rkiQg Lawrence, Kansas 66045, USA with students to complete the other Tel.: (913) 864-3523 Alex Morrison, President pieces. Fax: (913) 864-5700 Cornwallis Park P.O. Box 100 2) Development of computer softwade for a E-mails: [email protected] Clementsport, Nova Scotia, BOS 1EO conflict alert system [email protected] [email protected] Canada For an analyst whose job is conflic/t early The KEDS project has focused on the de- Tel.: (902) 638-8041 warning, the question to ask is, "how Fax: (902) 638-3344 should the computer program lojk and velopment of a Macintosh computer pro- gram that can be used to generate political E-mail: operate so that the analyst can eaqily re- [email protected] ceive and interpret the informaticp that event data directly from the machine caused the program to generate an Plert?" readable newswire reports available on The Pearson Peacekeeping Centre (PPC), data sources such as Nexis. The computer a division of the Canadian Institute of 3) Development of a taxonomy of viqlent program and its coding dictionaries are Strategic Studies, provides research, edu- conflicts ranging from global or sdstemic available without charge to interested re- cation and training in all aspects of peace- wars to struggles for turf by warlqrds searchers, and we also can provide event keeping, and serves as a single focal point I am convinced that we will not be pble to data sets that have been coded using for peacekeeping information and activi- develop a working conflict alert qystem KEDS. We have completed two data sets ties. It is named in honour of Lester B. until we carefully and precisely ?pecify covering the principal actors in the Pearson, former Prime Minister of differentkinds of conflicts. Going through Arab-Israeli conflict for 1979-1995; one set Canada. In 1956, at the time of the Suez the literature, I have come up with 4 list of is coded with the WEIS event data system Crises, he invented peacekeeping for over 100 different kinds or types of yiolent am and the other with BCOW (Behavioural which he was awarded the 1957 Nobel conflicts. To create a taxonomy, I as- Correlates of War) codes. We continue to Peace Prize.

38 Refuge,Vol. 15, No. 4 (1996) To guide its activities, the PPC has de- coded data on group involvement in T. R., Ad 8. Harff (eds). July 1994. veloped the concept of the "New Peace- anti-government protest, rebellion, Warning of Communal Conflicts keeping Partnership." The term is applied and communal conflict from 1945 to a d Humanitarian Crises." Iournal of to those organizations and individuals 1995 (coded annually from 1985 on- %no-Deve~opment, 4. which work together to improve the effec- ward); Gurr,T. R. 1994. "People Against States: tiveness of modem peacekeeping opera- an assessment of short-term prospects ~&no~oliticalconflict and the changing tions. It includes the military; civil police; for improvements or deterioration in florid System." International Studies Qarterly, 38347-77. governments; nongovernmental agencies group- - status. dealing with human rights and humani- This information is being analysed for the Ha& B., and T. R. Gurr. 1995. "Victims of the tarian assistance; diplomats; the media; following purposes: Genocides, Politicides and Group and organizations sponsoring develop- testing models of factors (e.g., group ment and democratization programmes. inequalities, mobilization, political The Pearson Centre offers national environment) most closely linked to and international, multidisciplinary indi- magnitudes of ethno-political conflict Gum, .R., and B. Harff. 1996. Early Warning viduals and groups the opportunity to and conflict escalation; of ommunal Conflict and Genocide: Linking examine specific peacekeeping issues and the identification of groups with the E 1pirical Research to International Re- update their knowledge of the latest highest risk of future conflict and re- s onses. Tokyo: UN University Press. peacekeeping practices. The Centre offers pression; ($rthcoming) multifaceted curriculum of special inter- the comparativeassessment of domes- @information on the Minorities at est to all stakeholders associated with tic and international strategies for im- Risk Project (all three Phases) can be peacekeeping operations. It offers an ex- proving the status of ethno-political founh on the following webaite: http:// tensive schedule of conferences, semi- groups and reducing the potential for wizqrd.ucr.edu/ -wm/[email protected] nars, workshops, training, and education conflict and repression; (Pleape note that the lower case/upper courses. The Centre also sponsors field re- regional and global assessments of case distinctions are important). This search with deployed peacekeeping mis- trends in ethno-political conflict. web- ite was created by Will H. Moore sions, and a Visiting Scholars Program. The systematic identification of groups who kas a Senior Researcher on Phase III. with highest risks of future conflict and (Depprtment of Political Science, Univer- Minorities at Risk Projec't repression provides the basis for risk as- sity f California, Riverside, Idyllwild, CA 2549; [email protected]). Ted Robert Gurr, Principal Investigator sessments (or very early warnings) that 8 are being made available to multiple au- Michael Haxton, Project Coordinator ~AF(D~-~rotocolfor the Assessment Michael Dravis, Research Associate diences including NGO representatives, national and international policy makers, of Nonviolent Direct Action Center for International Development I and Conflict Management (CIDCM) and scholars. Results for African groups Suite 0145, Tydings Hall will be presented to and discussed with University of Maryland NGO representatives and European College Park, MD 20742-7231, USA policy makers at a meeting convened by Tel.: (301) 314-7706 International Alert (London) in Septem- Fax: (301) 314-9256 ber 1996. E-mails: [email protected] Sources of Funding cadbridge, MA 02138, USA [email protected] United States Institute of Peace, National Tel.: (617) 495-7705 [email protected] Science Foundation, Korea Foundation, Fax: (617) 496-8562 or 495-8292 The project has compiled and is analysing International Alert (London) E-mbil: [email protected] detailed information on the status and Future Plans project members have been conflicts of 270 politically active commu- In the summer of 1996, the edited narra- with the Kansas Event Data Sys- nal groups in 1990-95. Phase I11 of the tive materials and assessments on each development team for several project, just completed, includes this in- group were made available on the World yea s to extend and refine the dictionaries formation on each group: Wide Web through home pages at the use by the KEDS automated sparse pars- a brief overview of group history and University of Maryland and International ing rogram for use in the near-real time status; Alert. Selected risk assessment indicators dev lopment of worldwide interaction 1995population estimates and map(s) 1 for each group are included. eveqt data. The KEDS program operates of group's spatial distribution; Funds are being sought for: periodic with a transparent and easily modifiable a chronology of events initiated by or updating of chronologies and assess- set df dictionaries that defines its operat- affecting the group from 1990 through ments through the year 2000; improving ing /protocol. PANDA project members 1995; the quality and graphic display of WWW developed a set of dictionaries to a detailed coding of 1990-95 informa- materials; the inclusion of maps and the testing of propositions re- tion on the group's distinguishing source bibliographies for each group. traits, cohesion, inequalities, discrimi- Gurr, T. R. 1993. Minorities at Risk: A Global The utility of nation, grievances, political organiza- Vkof Ethnopolitical Conflict. Washing- tion, and international support; ton, D.C.: US. Institute of Peace. on ionflict is premised in part upon the notilon that nonviolent struggle may serve

Refuge, Vol. 15, No. 4 (1996) 39 as a functional substitute for the vlolent We are working on the development and information-gathering in the former prosecution of conflict. PANDA'S focus empirical assessment of causal model of Yugoslavia for peacekeeping, sanc- on n~nviolentalternatives to wagin con- conditions associated with refugee flight tions monitoring and the international flict constitutes an explicit recog f ition by country of origin. Data is collected criminal tribunal. that while conflict is inevitable. violence is from both the United Nations High Com- The project also looks at present not necessarily the only option, add ac- missioner for Refugees and the U.S.Com- practices on information/intelligence- commodation is not always possitle or mittee for Refugees for 1964-1995. Data is gathering in the UN and evaluates pro- desirable. In the face of genocide, fbt ex- collected by country of origin, with infor- posals for improvements. ample, a moral imperative diqtates mation on the country of asylum. Data on One aspect of the project concerns against compromise. PANDA'S early the internally displaced is also available. technologies for peace (peacekeeping, warnings on conflict, then, are designed Initial analysis for 1971-1990 and future arms control, the prevention, manage- to illuminate conflict interactions tkhere analysis for the 1990s is under way. ment and resolution of conflict) and how physical and coercive force is no1 em- Schmeidl, S. 1997. "Exploring the Causes of they are used by the UN. ployed, even as accommodativk ex- Forced Migration: A Pooled Time-Series Dorn, W. 1995. "Intelligence and Peace-Keep- changes are ruled out. By monitori Analysis, 1971-1990." Social Science Quar- ing: The UN Operation in the Congo examining event reports with a9 dataand terly, June. (forthcoming) 196044." In A. Walter Dorn and David J. lens" that is sensitive to nonviolent (lirect Schmeidl, S., and J. C. Jenkins. 1996. "The H. Bell International Peace-keeping Vol. action, PANDA tracks the evolutibn of Growth of the World Refugee Crisis: An 2(1):11-33. conflict manifest in both violent and !ton- Overview." In Under Threat, edited by Dorn, W. 1995. "Keeping Watch for Peace: violent forms of action. This effort is Lubomyr Luciuk and Martin S. Kenzer. Fact-finding by the UN Secretary-Gen- aimed at developing a better underdtand- Toronto: University of Toronto Press. eral," In E. Fawcett and H. Newcombe ing of the conditions, acceleratorsj trig- (forthcoming) United Nations Reform: Looking Ahead after gers and processes by which kme Jenkins, J. C., and S. Schmeidl. 1995. "Flight Fifty Years, pp. 138-54. Toronto: Science situations of conflict erupt into viollence. from Violence: The Origins and Implica- for Peace. tions of the World Refugee Crisis." Socio- Dorn, W. 1996. "UNInformation Systems for logical Focus, 28(1):63-82. Peace and Security." In International In- Schmeidl,S. "Comprehending Forced Migra- formation: Documents, Publications and In- Burgess and G. Burgess. Boulder: tynne tion: The Evolution of a Global Problem formation Systems of International Riemer Publishers. I over the Past Three Decades: 1964-1994." Governmental Organizations, edited by P. Hajnal. Libraries Unlimited. (forthcom- Bond, D., and B. Bennett. 1994. "The P actice Currently under review at International of Democracy: Global Patterns an4 Froc- Migration Review. ing) esses in 1990." Paper presented at 4eXVI Schrneidl, S., and J. C. Jenkins. "The Early World Congress of the Internatioqal Po- Warning of Refugee Migrations: Prob- V. Individual Early Warning litical Science Association in ~erq. lems Constructing an Indicator Model." Research Efforts Bond D., B. Bennett, W Vogele, and c/thers. Currently under review at International Migration Review. 1994. "PANDA: Interaction Event Data Aldo A. Benini Development Using Atomated &man Coding." Paper presented a the IS/A an- UN Fact-Finding and 170-C Brisco Road nual meeting in Washington, D.C. Intelligence-Gathering Arroyo Grande CA 93420, USA Tel.: (805) 481-2135 Bond, D., and W. B. Vogele. 1995. "~rod/lesof Walter Dom Daytime fax: (805) 481-6609 International 'Hotspots"' PreparOd for Vice-President and UN Representative the US. General Accounting ~ffich. E-mail: [email protected] Science for Peace Anthony de V. Minnaar University College, University of Toronto Refugee Early Warning Project i Centre for Socio-Political Analysis Toronto, Ontario, M5S 3H7, Canada Human Science Research Council HSRC Susanne Schmeidl Tel./Fax: (416) 978-3606 Private Bag X41 Centre for Refugee Studies Fax: (416) 978-2797 (Trinity College) Pretoria 0001, Republic of South Africa York University E-mail: [email protected] Tel.: (012) 202-2441 York Lanes, 3rd Floor, 4700 Keele Skreet This ongoing study examines how the UN Fax: (012) 202-2510 North York, Ontario, M3J lM, Canhda gathers and uses information for preven- E-mail: [email protected] Tel.: (416) 736-5663 tive diplomacy, early warning and the Sam Pretorius Fax: (416) 736-5837 management and resolution of conflict. E-mail: [email protected] Centre for Sociopolitical Analysis Several historical and recent case studies Human Science Research Council HSRC J. Craig Jenkins are being carried out to learn lessons for Private Bag X41 Department of Sociology the present and future: Pretoria 0001, Republic of South Africa The Ohio State University early/late warning in Korea (1950); Tel.: (012) 202-2300 300 Bricker Hall, 190 North Oval 411 the UN role in the Cuban Missile Cri- Fax: (012) 202-2510 Columbus, 0,hio 43210, USA sis; E-mail: [email protected] Tel.: (614) 292-1411 Intelligence and peacekeeping: The Fax: (614) 292-6687 UN Operation in the Congo (1960-64); Abstract of Preliminary Research Report E-mail;~gnus.acs.ohio-sta~.du early warning in Rwanda; (for a copy contact Aldo Benini)

40 Refuge, Vol. 15, No. 4 (1996) Persistent Cdldve Violence and Euly on Rwanda and Future Poliaes." Rcfirgc: l$~project is described in a forthcom- WPrning Systems! Tbe Crw of Cnnadn's Periodical on gees, 5(15):1-4. ing bo k by Ben Hunt (Fall 19%) Getting to KwaZuIu-Natal, kthAfrica Fein, H. 1984. "Scenarios of Genocide: Mod- War. WniversityI of Michigan Press. He One of the little known specifics of the els of Genocide and Critical Responses." tests l$s model with a range of statistical democratic transition in South Africa In 2'7~Book of the lntternational Conference and cqse study analyses, and the results 1990-1994 is its system of early warning on Holocaust and Genocide:Towards Under- are stdiking. Even for wars that took the on political violence. The strong role that standing, Intervention and Prevention of world by surprise (e.g., Falklands/ grassroots organizationsplayed in moni- Genocide, edited by I. Charney and S. Malv*as), the models provide a clear pre- Davidson. Boulder, Co: Westview Press. toring affected communities and sus- dictiom of imminent conflict. pected perpetrators set it apart from Fein, H. 1992. "Dangerous States and Endan- systems that are driven primarily by aca- geredPeoples."InEarly Warning and Con- Louis Krieeberg demics. Academics were important for flict Resolution, edited by K. Rupesinghe M-11 School of Citizenship and and M. Kuroda. London: St. Martin's the analysis of the reports collected by the Press. Publid Affairs popular movement and for formulating Progrgm on the Analysis and Resolution of Codflicts warnings on trends and hot zones which Herbert Hirsch 410 *ell Hall the transitional government as well as the Virginia Commonwealth University Syrac~se,New York 13244-1090, USA media actively demanded. This paper de- Department of Political Science and Tel.: ($15) 443-2367 scribes the mechanisms and analyses data Public Administration Fax: (315) 443-3818 from the province of KwaZulu-Natal, P.O. Box 842028 where high levels of political violence Richmond Virginia 23284-2028, USA Louis Kriesberg is examining the ways continued for much longer than in the rest Fax: (804) 828-7463 constquctive struggle are and might be of the country. Using regression tech- condqcted at various stages of social con- Hirsch, Herbert. 1996. Genocideand the Politics niques, we show that the violent behav- flicts. illus analysis helps specify policies iour of the main political antagonists of Memory: Studying Death to Preseme Life. University of North Carolina Press. that idtermediaries and partisans in con- changed significantly after the April 1994 flicts dan pursue to avoid, limit, end, and national elections. Also the violence fol- The last two chapters of this book are de- prevept destructive conflicts. Cases of eth- voted to the prevention of genocide. lowed different causative patterns in the nic anp other communal conflicts that ex- various subregions. Profiles derived in Within the context of that discussion, I hibit telatively effective applications of 1994 and 1995informed the government's take a brief look at some of the proposals problem-solving conflict resolution ap- decision to postpone regional elections in for early warning and I extend the analy- proaches are also examined. His work fo- KwaZulu-Natal three times before they sis to consider other aspects of interna- cuses as well on the ways to coordinate could be held in June 1996 in a climate of tional law and a change in the way nation variojls intermediary and partisan efforts relative tranquillity. states are viewed. to wa$econstructive strugglesand to pur- oblem-solving conflict resolution Helen Fein, Director Ben Hunt, Assistant Professor of Politics New York University Institute for the Study of Genocide Krie$&rg, L. 1996. "Preventing and Resolv- 46 Irving Street 715 Broadway, 4th floor New York, New York 10012, USA in Destructive Communal Conflicts." In Cambridge, MA 02138, USA T$ lnternational Politics ofEthnic Conflict: Tel.: (212) 998-8503 Helen Fein is a leading scholar on geno- T oyand Evidence, edited by P. James Fax: (212) 995-4184 cides. She has published extensively on a!$ D. Carment. University of Pittsburgh E-mail: [email protected] this topic, as well as on the issue of the Press. (forthcoming) early warning of genocides. Polltical Indicators of War Escalation Krie$&rg, L. 1992. International Conflict Reso- Fein, H. (ed.)1994. The Prevention of Genocide: This project is aimed at developing a lead- ludions: The U.S.-USSR and Middle East Rwanda and Yugoslavia Reconsidered. New ing political indicator of a government's Cubes. New Haven: Yale University Press. York: Institute for the Study of Genocide. intention to escalate conflict to war Kriesherg, L., and S. Thorson (eds).1996. Tim- (Also contributor) through its attempts to mobilize public the De-Escalation of lnternational Con- Fein, H. (1990) 1991 (new introduction). opinion in the mass media. Since all gov- SyracuseStudies and Peace Conflict "Genocide: A Sociological Perspective." ernments, regardless of how authoritar- (forthcoming) Special Issue of Current Sociology. Sage ian, prefer to have this support before Kriesherg, L. 1996. "Varieties of Mediating Publications. undertaking a risky action like war, the Adtivities and Mediators in International Fein, H. (ed.). 1989. Genocide Watch. New model is applicableacross the board. Even Haven: Yale University Press. (Also con- in countries with an 'open' media system, tributor). governments maintain enough influence Fein, H. 1994. "Tools and Alarms: Uses of over opinion leading efforts to generate a Models for Explanation and Anticipa- meaningful indicator. This work is based tion."Journalfor Ethno-Development, July, on an idea Karl Deutsch had back in the 31-35. A pumculum Guide, edited by M. Klare. mid-1950's, when he was writing about Rimer Publishers. Fein, H. 1994. "Prediction, Prevention and using media as 'an early warning net- Punishment of Genocide: Observations work.' L. 1993. "Intractable Conflicts." P&ce Rmiew 5(4):417-21.

Rehe, Vol. 15, No. 4 (1996) 41 Kriesberg, L. 1994. "Regional Conflict ii-t the PostCold War Era: Causes, Dyn$uCs, and Modes of Resolution." In Worl Secu- rity: Challengesfor a New Century, dited by M. Klare and D. Thomas. Newb York: St. Martin's Press.

Andrea Smutek-Riemer Veronikagasse 38/230 I A-1170 Wien, Austria Tel./Fax: (+43 1) 405-1729 E-mail: [email protected] 1 The research program on "The evolutionary Extended Signal

The research process is systematic and evolutionary. The time frame isfrom 1994-2000. The basic outline of tvis re- search is completed as are two case/s: one on the former Yugoslavia (a pilot ppject)

gary are going to The last project is comparison of all these cases. , Vetschera, Heinz/Smutek-Riemer, Abdrea.

der Entwicklung zur ~u~&lawienbse." In Sicherheitsvolitik Deutschlandst Neue

slavia.) Smutek-Riemer, Andrea. 1995. "Die qrtiher-

reichischer Sicht." Allgemeine Schbeizer- ische Militdrzeitschrift, 322-24. Smutek-Riemer, Andrea. 1995.

Kreises?" Soldat und Technik, 25

42 RCfUge, Vol. 15, No. 4 (1996) I

Refuge Vol. 15 No. 4 (1996) REFUCECANADA'S PERIODICAL ON REFUGEES Wkfe Centre for Refugee Studies Suite 351, York Lanes York Univereity 4700 Keele Street, North York Ontario, Canada M3J 1P3 Phone: (416) 736-5843 Fax: (416) 736-5837 Internet: [email protected]