818 Hydrological Sciences–Journal–des Sciences Hydrologiques, 51(5) October 2006 Special issue: Historical Hydrology Trends in flood risk of the River Werra (Germany) over the past 500 years MANFRED MUDELSEE1,2, MATHIAS DEUTSCH3, MICHAEL BÖRNGEN4 & GERD TETZLAFF1 1Institute of Meteorology, University of Leipzig, Stephanstrasse 3, D-04103 Leipzig, Germany
[email protected] 2Climate Risk Analysis, Wasserweg 2, D-06114 Halle (S), Germany 3Institute of Geography, University of Göttingen, Goldschmidtstrasse 5, D-37077 Göttingen, Germany 4Saxonian Academy of Sciences, Leibniz Institute of Regional Geography, Schongauerstrasse 9, D-04329 Leipzig, Germany Abstract A record of floods from 1500 to 2003 of the River Werra (Germany) is presented. The recon- struction is based on combining documentary and instrumental data. Because both data types have overlapping time intervals, it was possible to apply similar thresholds for flood definition and obtain a rather homogenous flood series. The kernel method yielded estimates of time-dependent flood risk. Bootstrap confidence bands helped to assess the significance of trends. The following was found: (a) the overall risk of floods in winter (November–April) is approximately 3.5 times higher than the summer flood risk; (b) winter flood risk peaked at around 1760 and 1860 – it increases again during the past decades; and (c) summer flood risk peaked at around 1760 – it shows a long-term decrease from then on. These trends for the Werra contrast with those of nearby River Elbe, reflecting the high spatial variability of orographic rainfall. Key words bootstrap confidence band; Central Europe; documentary climate data; flood risk; kernel estimation; orographic rainfall; runoff measurement; Thuringia Tendances du risque d’inondation dans la vallée de la rivière Werra (Allemagne) durant les 500 dernières années Résumé Nous présentons un inventaire des débordements de la rivière Werra (Allemagne) de 1500 à 2003.