IAI COMMENTARIES 21 | 05 - JANUARY 2021 ISSN 2532-6570 © 2021 IAI 1 international arenahave been calls for astronger EUrole in the During theTrump administration, of EUpolicy intheneighbourhood. further highlighting theshortcomings outbreak have exacerbated this reality, devastating consequences of COVID-19 its democratization prospects. The Europe’s neighbourhood, hindering socio-economic development of has proven insufficient to fosterthe boosting tradeflows, such an approach capable of harmonizing rules and of economic interdependence. While its foreign policy on thepolitical use neighbourhood policy, theEUbased enlargement process and theEuropean Ever sincethelaunch of the its neighbourhood. happened toEUforeign policy towards may argue that much of thesamehas the second year of thepandemic, one infected human beings. As we enter while exacerbating latent illnesses in COVID-19 amplifies weaknesses Group (BiEPAG). Bonomi isResearch Fellow at IAIand memberof theBalkans in Europe Policy Advisory University (Rome) and Research Associate at theIstituto Affari Internazionali (IAI). Matteo Maria Giulia Amadio Viceré is Adjunct Professor and Post-Doctoral Fellow at LUISS by MariaGiulia Amadio Viceré andMatteo Bonomi Autonomy intheNeighbourhood The EU’s Search for “Effective” Strategic even thePresident of theEuropean pundits. In anunprecedented move, widespread among scholars and ceps.eu/?p=31440. In Brief CEPS for Call Europe”, in aLast Is Presidency Biden www.iai.it/en/node/12364 Papers World”, Union aCOVID in European in 2 https://www.euractiv.com/?p=1526447. in Policy”, Foreign for Europe’s Mean Could Election US the What 1 stance intheneighbourhood. opportunity for theEUtostrengthenits new USadministration asawindow of Europe’s surroundings. traditional role of security provider in House, Washington will resume its President of theUShasleft theWhite Some now hint that since the 45th stage. geopolitically relevant on theworld stressed theneedtomake theEUmore Commission Ursula von derLeyen

Alexandra Brzozowski, “Biden or Trump? or Trump? “Biden Brzozowski, Alexandra Riccardo Alcaro and Nathalie Tocci, “The “The Tocci, Nathalie and Alcaro Riccardo , No. 20|34 (November 2020), 2020), (November , No. 20|34 , 1 December 2020, 2020, , 1December Euractiv ; Karel Lannoo, “The “The Lannoo, ; Karel , 2 November 2020, 2020, , 2November 1 Othersseethe https://www. 2 https:// IAI The EU’s Search for “Effective” Strategic Autonomy in the Neighbourhood

The extent to which current EU policy In the years that followed, the EU faced frameworks are fit for achieving several challenges stemming from this goal remains an open question, these areas, among which the complex however. Upon its establishment in unfolding of the political transition in 2004, the EU neighbourhood policy the Arab world and Russia’s disruption was conceived as an alternative to of the post-Soviet space through the traditional geopolitical means. It was annexation of Crimea. Yet it took based on the long experience of EU Donald Trump’s controversial approach

© 2021 IAI enlargement. Its underlying logic to international politics, and the UK’s was that a progressive economic decision to leave the EU, for Brussels to integration of partner countries would launch the “strategic autonomy” debate have created a space for shared stability in the context of the 2016 EU Global and prosperity, based on EU values.3 Strategy. In a nutshell, democratisation through conditionality grounded on socio- That debate has been the main economic issues laid at the centre of the driver behind the more integrated EU’s approach to its neighbourhood.4 efforts among EU member states and ISSN 2532-6570 institutions in the security and defence Yet, without the prospect of accession, field, epitomised by the establishment of this policy framework has not proven the Permanent Structured Cooperation very effective in Europe’s southern and and the . eastern neighbourhoods. In addition, However, it is very likely that the EU with the eurozone crisis, such a model will not become militarily autonomous of external integration turned into an in the near future, given member states’ obstacle for a swift transformation reluctance towards capacity building in of the regions covered by both the the security sector.6 enlargement and neighbourhood policy frameworks. In fact, the strong The strategic autonomy debate, economic ties between the EU and its obviously, has not been limited to such surroundings acted as transmission sector. In this regard, most recently, EU belts for negative spillovers of the EU representatives expressed the need to sovereign debt crisis, creating fertile achieve an “open”,7 and hence effective ground for the destabilisation that strategic autonomy. In the words of occurred immediately afterwards.5 HR/VP , the latter is not limited to security and defence.8 On

3 Treaty on the (TEU), Art. 8. 6 4 Maria Giulia Amadio Viceré and Sergio Jolyon Howorth, “For a True European Fabbrini, “Assessing the High Representative’s Defence Union”, in Martens Centre Future of Role in Egypt during the Arab Spring”, in The Europe series, December 2017, https://www. International Spectator, Vol. 52, No. 3 (September martenscentre.eu/?p=2141. 2017), p. 64-82. 7 Sabine Weyand, EU Open Strategic Autonomy 5 Matteo Bonomi and Dušan Reljić, “The EU and and the Transatlantic Trade Relationship, the Western Balkans: So Near and Yet So Far”, in opening remarks at the American Institute for SWP Comments, No. 53/2017 (December 2017), Contemporary German Studies, 15 September https://www.swp-berlin.org/en/publication/ 2020, https://europa.eu/!gx49jN. the-eu-and-the-western-balkans-so-near-and- 8 Josep Borrell, “Why European Strategic yet-so-far. Autonomy Matters”, in A Window on the IAI COMMENTARIES 21 | 05 - JANUARY 2021 21 | 05 - JANUARY IAI COMMENTARIES

2 The EU’s Search for “Effective” Strategic Autonomy in the Neighbourhood

the contrary, as the President of the Despite the current debate about the Charles Michel put need for the EU to reach an effective it, the EU should rely on the strength strategic autonomy, its approach of its economic and social model in towards the neighbourhood remains a its pursuit of autonomy and external quagmire in which both Brussels and influence. Ultimately, by doing so, the countries involved seem to be stuck. Brussels would reach its objectives, namely: “peace and prosperity”.9 The prospects for EU responses to

© 2021 IAI the spread of COVID-19 outside its Nonetheless, in practice, there is a borders are certainly less bright than tangible risk that the EU will not achieve the initiatives launched so far by the this degree of effectiveness in time to EU internally. The pandemic’s outbreak avoid a further destabilisation of its came on top of multiple crises which, neighbourhood. In recent years, the coupled with the spread of nationalism EU approach has been centred on state and populism across Europe, led to resilience at the expense of broader widespread inward-looking tendencies societal resilience.10 The EU focused in the EU. Amidst fear and despair, the ISSN 2532-6570 on firmly securing both its southern first responses by EU member states and eastern borders, and stabilising its to the deadly virus have been highly surroundings. Meanwhile, countries uncoordinated. Yet, as this initial lack of in the southern Mediterranean and solidarity seemed to irreparably shake eastern Europe, alongside the Western the EU’s foundations, Next Generation Balkans, suffered from economic EU – the largest stimulus package ever hardship, social tensions and unsettled financed through the EU budget – was conflicts. launched to boost Europe’s recovery in July 2020. It is against the backdrop of these weaknesses – and indeed latent illnesses At first sight, it seems that the EU –, that the COVID-19 crisis exploded in tried to counter the devastating early 2020. The pandemic is not only socio-economic effects of the health having devastating implications across emergency in its neighbourhood. In EU member states, but also on Europe’s April 2020, through the Team Europe eastern and southern neighbours.11 Package, the European Commission alongside EU member states launched a World (blog), 3 December 2020, https://europa. series of measures aimed at supporting eu/!Xc63jg. 12 9 Charles Michel, Strategic Autonomy for most vulnerable developing countries. Europe - The Aim of Our Generation, speech Yet, the Team Europe Package mainly to the Bruegel think tank, 28 September 2020, proposed the use of pre-existing funds.13 https://europa.eu/!WX44hD. 10 Maria Giulia Amadio Viceré and Andrea Frontini, “Paths to Resilience: Examining EU and January 2021, https://www.worldbank.org/en/ NATO Responses to the Tunisian and Egyptian publication/global-economic-prospects. Political Transitions”, in Eugenio Cusumano 12 European Commission, Communication on the and Stefan Hofmaier (eds), Projecting Resilience Global EU Response to COVID-19 (JOIN/2020/11), Across the Mediterranean, Cham, Palgrave 8 April 2020, https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal- Macmillan, 2019, p. 247-268. content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52020JC0011. 11 World Bank, Global Economic Prospects, 13 European Commission, Q&A: Global EU IAI COMMENTARIES 21 | 05 - JANUARY 2021 21 | 05 - JANUARY IAI COMMENTARIES

3 The EU’s Search for “Effective” Strategic Autonomy in the Neighbourhood

Added to this, the recent Multiannual weaknesses of Eastern Europe, the Financial Framework (2021–2027) Western Balkans and the Middle East prioritises the EU’s internal recovery and Northern Africa. With Europe’s plans over “Heading 6 - Neighbourhood surroundings plunging into a deep, and the World”. In fact, not only does the unprecedented socio-economic crisis, new multi-annual budget fail to adapt the EU is likely to suffer from a series to the post-pandemic reality in the of negative spillovers that could derive neighbourhood, but it also cuts the 2018 from a further impoverishment of these

© 2021 IAI Commission’s proposal for expenses areas. Among others, such spillovers related to instruments of external may entail criminality, terrorism, action. Although the Commission migration, diminished demand for initially proposed to allocate 118 billion goods, and the increased influence of euro to these instruments, member external powers at the EU’s borders. states eventually reduced this amount to 98 billion.14 Second, since Washington’s gaze is progressively – and inexorably – Against this backdrop, the EU would shifting towards the Pacific, the EU, in ISSN 2532-6570 need to reshape the premises on order to be a strategically autonomous which its foreign policy towards the actor, will necessarily have to take care neighbourhood is based. In the context of its neighbourhood by itself. Yet, this of the Strategy’s implementation, the will not mean throwing out the baby EU mostly focused on avoiding the with the bathwater. On the contrary, risk of state failure rather than societal it would entail making the most out resilience. The result has been a general of the EU’s unique set of instruments lack of socio-economic development of and its economic strength, alongside these areas. Indeed, such development its keenness to act within multilateral should be considered as a necessary settings rather than unilaterally. but not sufficient condition for an all-encompassing democratization Besides potentially profitable process. endeavours, which of course are relevant, trade and market related Still, the current conditions make such policies in third countries are, first a reshape far more urgent for at least and foremost, powerful foreign policy two reasons. First, it is very likely that instruments – perhaps the most history will repeat itself. As happened powerful ones in the case of the EU. with the Great Recession in 2008– Nonetheless, employing trade and 09, the pandemic’s consequences market-related policies as geopolitical will probably catalyse the structural tools necessarily entails devising some form of solidarity. Response to the Coronavirus Pandemic, 8 April 2020, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/ presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_20_606. The current socio-economic 14 Anita Käppeli and Mikaela Gavas, “The EU’s conditions of Europe’s neighbourhood New Budget: Europe’s Recovery at the Expense clearly demonstrate how the liberal of Its Long-Term Ambitions”, in CGD Policy assumption according to which Blogs, 27 July 2020, https://www.cgdev.org/ node/3128997. trade policy can automatically lead IAI COMMENTARIES 21 | 05 - JANUARY 2021 21 | 05 - JANUARY IAI COMMENTARIES

4 The EU’s Search for “Effective” Strategic Autonomy in the Neighbourhood

to win-win solutions is no longer policy would be utopian. sustainable. When costs stemming from trade relations are asymmetrical To be a truly strategic and autonomous among parties, as in the case of the actor, besides integrating its security EU’s disproportionate benefits at the and defence sector, the EU should expenses of these countries, corrective first and foremost make sure that its and redistributive mechanisms are neighbours are resilient. This will necessary for boosting socio-economic necessarily imply not only an increase

© 2021 IAI growth, and thus societal resilience. of the funds allocated to EU foreign policy instruments, but also a revision A technocratic and a-political vision of of the EU’s usage of the economic the markets dismantled these countries’ interdependence with these countries. national barriers through de-regulation processes, depriving protection for As stated in the EU Global Strategy, economic sectors and social groups – the internal dimension of EU security who did not have the social capital to is inherently intertwined with the adapt to such changes.15 To rebalance external one. Devoting money and ISSN 2532-6570 its relations with its neighbours, the EU efforts to sustain the neighbourhood’s needs to devise an approach centred fight against the pandemic should on their economic development and therefore not be understood as a mere to invest on their social and human act of solidarity, devised from an actor capital.16 that aspires to be a normative – if not ethical – power in the international In the past, the EU has not devised arena. On the contrary, it is a direct effective policies to replace the investment in Europe’s security itself. progressive US disengagement from the European neighbourhood. It is plausible that President Biden will 27 January 2021 change Washington’s interactions with third parties in international politics, as well as the principles and values underpinning such interactions. Still, believing that Biden’s ascent to power can solve the inconsistencies and inefficiencies that mar EU foreign

15 Sergio Fabbrini, “Ascesa e declino del decennio nazionalista. Il fallimento delle ideologie calde e l’importanza del liberalismo seppur tiepido”, in LUISS Open Society, 21 January 2021, https://open.luiss.it/?p=12547. 16 Matteo Bonomi, Ardian Hackaj and Dušan Reljić, “Avoiding the Trap of Another Paper Exercise: Why the Western Balkans Need a Human Development-centred EU Enlargement Model”, in IAI Papers, No. 20|04 (January 2020), https://www.iai.it/en/node/11257. IAI COMMENTARIES 21 | 05 - JANUARY 2021 21 | 05 - JANUARY IAI COMMENTARIES

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Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) The Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) is a private, independent non-profit think tank, founded in 1965 on the initiative of Altiero Spinelli. IAI seeks to promote awareness of international politics and to contribute to the advancement of European integration and multilateral cooperation. Its focus embraces topics of strategic relevance such as European integration, security and defence, international economics and global governance, energy, climate and Italian foreign policy; as well as the dynamics of cooperation and conflict in key geographical regions such as the Mediterranean and Middle East, Asia, Eurasia, Africa and © 2021 IAI the Americas. IAI publishes an English-language quarterly (The International Spectator), an online webzine (Affarinternazionali), three book series (Global Politics and Security, Quaderni IAI and IAI Research Studies) and some papers’ series related to IAI research projects (Documenti IAI, IAI Papers, etc.).

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