“Effective” Strategic Autonomy in the Neighbourhood

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“Effective” Strategic Autonomy in the Neighbourhood The EU’s Search for “Effective” Strategic Autonomy in the Neighbourhood © 2021 IAI by Maria Giulia Amadio Viceré and Matteo Bonomi COVID-19 amplifies weaknesseswidespread among scholars and while exacerbating latent illnesses in pundits. In an unprecedented move, ISSN 2532-6570 infected human beings. As we enter even the President of the European the second year of the pandemic, one Commission Ursula von der Leyen may argue that much of the same has stressed the need to make the EU more happened to EU foreign policy towards geopolitically relevant on the world its neighbourhood. stage. Ever since the launch of the Some now hint that since the 45th enlargement process and the European President of the US has left the White neighbourhood policy, the EU based House, Washington will resume its its foreign policy on the political use traditional role of security provider in of economic interdependence. While Europe’s surroundings.1 Others see the capable of harmonizing rules and new US administration as a window of boosting trade flows, such an approach opportunity for the EU to strengthen its has proven insufficient to foster the stance in the neighbourhood.2 socio-economic development of Europe’s neighbourhood, hindering its democratization prospects. The 1 Alexandra Brzozowski, “Biden or Trump? devastating consequences of COVID-19 What the US Election Could Mean for Europe’s outbreak have exacerbated this reality, Foreign Policy”, in Euractiv, 2 November 2020, https://www.euractiv.com/?p=1526447. further highlighting the shortcomings 2 Riccardo Alcaro and Nathalie Tocci, “The of EU policy in the neighbourhood. European Union in a COVID World”, in IAI Papers, No. 20|34 (November 2020), https:// During the Trump administration, www.iai.it/en/node/12364; Karel Lannoo, “The calls for a stronger EU role in the Biden Presidency Is a Last Call for Europe”, in CEPS In Brief, 1 December 2020, https://www. international arena have been ceps.eu/?p=31440. Maria Giulia Amadio Viceré is Adjunct Professor and Post-Doctoral Fellow at LUISS University (Rome) and Research Associate at the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI). Matteo IAI COMMENTARIES 21 | 05 - JANUARY 2021 21 | 05 - JANUARY IAI COMMENTARIES Bonomi is Research Fellow at IAI and member of the Balkans in Europe Policy Advisory Group (BiEPAG). 1 The EU’s Search for “Effective” Strategic Autonomy in the Neighbourhood The extent to which current EU policy In the years that followed, the EU faced frameworks are fit for achieving several challenges stemming from this goal remains an open question, these areas, among which the complex however. Upon its establishment in unfolding of the political transition in 2004, the EU neighbourhood policy the Arab world and Russia’s disruption was conceived as an alternative to of the post-Soviet space through the traditional geopolitical means. It was annexation of Crimea. Yet it took based on the long experience of EU Donald Trump’s controversial approach © 2021 IAI enlargement. Its underlying logic to international politics, and the UK’s was that a progressive economic decision to leave the EU, for Brussels to integration of partner countries would launch the “strategic autonomy” debate have created a space for shared stability in the context of the 2016 EU Global and prosperity, based on EU values.3 Strategy. In a nutshell, democratisation through conditionality grounded on socio- That debate has been the main economic issues laid at the centre of the driver behind the more integrated EU’s approach to its neighbourhood.4 efforts among EU member states and ISSN 2532-6570 institutions in the security and defence Yet, without the prospect of accession, field, epitomised by the establishment of this policy framework has not proven the Permanent Structured Cooperation very effective in Europe’s southern and and the European Defence Fund. eastern neighbourhoods. In addition, However, it is very likely that the EU with the eurozone crisis, such a model will not become militarily autonomous of external integration turned into an in the near future, given member states’ obstacle for a swift transformation reluctance towards capacity building in of the regions covered by both the the security sector.6 enlargement and neighbourhood policy frameworks. In fact, the strong The strategic autonomy debate, economic ties between the EU and its obviously, has not been limited to such surroundings acted as transmission sector. In this regard, most recently, EU belts for negative spillovers of the EU representatives expressed the need to sovereign debt crisis, creating fertile achieve an “open”,7 and hence effective ground for the destabilisation that strategic autonomy. In the words of occurred immediately afterwards.5 HR/VP Josep Borrell, the latter is not limited to security and defence.8 On 3 Treaty on the European Union (TEU), Art. 8. 6 4 Maria Giulia Amadio Viceré and Sergio Jolyon Howorth, “For a True European Fabbrini, “Assessing the High Representative’s Defence Union”, in Martens Centre Future of Role in Egypt during the Arab Spring”, in The Europe series, December 2017, https://www. International Spectator, Vol. 52, No. 3 (September martenscentre.eu/?p=2141. 2017), p. 64-82. 7 Sabine Weyand, EU Open Strategic Autonomy 5 Matteo Bonomi and Dušan Reljić, “The EU and and the Transatlantic Trade Relationship, the Western Balkans: So Near and Yet So Far”, in opening remarks at the American Institute for SWP Comments, No. 53/2017 (December 2017), Contemporary German Studies, 15 September https://www.swp-berlin.org/en/publication/ 2020, https://europa.eu/!gx49jN. the-eu-and-the-western-balkans-so-near-and- 8 Josep Borrell, “Why European Strategic yet-so-far. Autonomy Matters”, in A Window on the IAI COMMENTARIES 21 | 05 - JANUARY 2021 21 | 05 - JANUARY IAI COMMENTARIES 2 The EU’s Search for “Effective” Strategic Autonomy in the Neighbourhood the contrary, as the President of the Despite the current debate about the European Council Charles Michel put need for the EU to reach an effective it, the EU should rely on the strength strategic autonomy, its approach of its economic and social model in towards the neighbourhood remains a its pursuit of autonomy and external quagmire in which both Brussels and influence. Ultimately, by doing so, the countries involved seem to be stuck. Brussels would reach its objectives, namely: “peace and prosperity”.9 The prospects for EU responses to © 2021 IAI the spread of COVID-19 outside its Nonetheless, in practice, there is a borders are certainly less bright than tangible risk that the EU will not achieve the initiatives launched so far by the this degree of effectiveness in time to EU internally. The pandemic’s outbreak avoid a further destabilisation of its came on top of multiple crises which, neighbourhood. In recent years, the coupled with the spread of nationalism EU approach has been centred on state and populism across Europe, led to resilience at the expense of broader widespread inward-looking tendencies societal resilience.10 The EU focused in the EU. Amidst fear and despair, the ISSN 2532-6570 on firmly securing both its southern first responses by EU member states and eastern borders, and stabilising its to the deadly virus have been highly surroundings. Meanwhile, countries uncoordinated. Yet, as this initial lack of in the southern Mediterranean and solidarity seemed to irreparably shake eastern Europe, alongside the Western the EU’s foundations, Next Generation Balkans, suffered from economic EU – the largest stimulus package ever hardship, social tensions and unsettled financed through the EU budget – was conflicts. launched to boost Europe’s recovery in July 2020. It is against the backdrop of these weaknesses – and indeed latent illnesses At first sight, it seems that the EU –, that the COVID-19 crisis exploded in tried to counter the devastating early 2020. The pandemic is not only socio-economic effects of the health having devastating implications across emergency in its neighbourhood. In EU member states, but also on Europe’s April 2020, through the Team Europe eastern and southern neighbours.11 Package, the European Commission alongside EU member states launched a World (blog), 3 December 2020, https://europa. series of measures aimed at supporting eu/!Xc63jg. 12 9 Charles Michel, Strategic Autonomy for most vulnerable developing countries. Europe - The Aim of Our Generation, speech Yet, the Team Europe Package mainly to the Bruegel think tank, 28 September 2020, proposed the use of pre-existing funds.13 https://europa.eu/!WX44hD. 10 Maria Giulia Amadio Viceré and Andrea Frontini, “Paths to Resilience: Examining EU and January 2021, https://www.worldbank.org/en/ NATO Responses to the Tunisian and Egyptian publication/global-economic-prospects. Political Transitions”, in Eugenio Cusumano 12 European Commission, Communication on the and Stefan Hofmaier (eds), Projecting Resilience Global EU Response to COVID-19 (JOIN/2020/11), Across the Mediterranean, Cham, Palgrave 8 April 2020, https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal- Macmillan, 2019, p. 247-268. content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52020JC0011. 11 13 World Bank, Global Economic Prospects, European Commission, Q&A: Global EU IAI COMMENTARIES 21 | 05 - JANUARY 2021 21 | 05 - JANUARY IAI COMMENTARIES 3 The EU’s Search for “Effective” Strategic Autonomy in the Neighbourhood Added to this, the recent Multiannual weaknesses of Eastern Europe, the Financial Framework (2021–2027) Western Balkans and the Middle East prioritises the EU’s internal recovery and Northern Africa. With Europe’s plans over “Heading 6 - Neighbourhood surroundings plunging into a deep, and the World”. In fact, not only does the unprecedented socio-economic crisis, new multi-annual budget fail to adapt the EU is likely to suffer from a series to the post-pandemic reality in the of negative spillovers that could derive neighbourhood, but it also cuts the 2018 from a further impoverishment of these © 2021 IAI Commission’s proposal for expenses areas.
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