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Inattentive Consumers
Inattentive Consumers Ricardo Reis∗ Department of Economics and Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA Abstract This paper studies the consumption decisions of agents who face costs of acquiring, absorbing and processing information. These consumers rationally choose to only sporadically update their information and re-compute their optimal consumption plans. In between updating dates, they remain inattentive. This behavior implies that news disperses slowly throughout the population, so events have a gradual and delayed effect on aggregate consumption. The model predicts that aggregate consumption adjusts slowly to shocks, and is able to explain the excess sensitivity and excess smoothness puzzles. In addition, individual consumption is sensitive to ordinary and unexpected past news, but it is not sensitive to extraordinary or predictable events. The model further predicts that some people rationally choose to not plan, live hand-to-mouth, and save less, while other people sporadically update their plans. The longer are these plans, the more they save. Evidence using U.S. aggregate and microeconomic data generally supports these predictions. JEL classification codes: E2, D9, D1, D8 ∗I am grateful to N. Gregory Mankiw, Alberto Alesina, Robert Barro, and David Laibson for their guidance and to Andrew Abel, Susanto Basu, John Campbell, Larry Christiano, Mariana Colacelli, Benjamin Friedman, Jens Hilscher, Yves Nosbusch, David Romer, John Shea, Monica Singhal, Adam Szeidl, Bryce Ward, Justin Wolfers, and numerous seminar participants for useful comments. The Fundação Ciência e Tecnologia, Praxis XXI and the Eliot Memorial fellowship provided financial support. Tel.: +1-609-258-8531; fax: +1-609-258-5349. E-mail address: [email protected]. -
Robert Fogel Interview
RF Winter 07v43-sig3-INT 2/28/07 11:13 AM Page 44 INTERVIEW Robert Fogel In the early 1960s, few economic historians engaged RF: I understand that your initial academic interests in rigorous quantitative work. Robert Fogel and the were in the physical sciences. How did you become “Cliometric Revolution” he led changed that. Fogel interested in economics, especially economic history? began to use large and often unique datasets to test Fogel: I became interested in the physical sciences while some long-held conclusions — work that produced attending Stuyvesant High School, which was exceptional in some surprising and controversial results. For that area. I learned a lot of physics, a lot of chemistry. I had instance, it was long believed that the railroads had excellent courses in calculus. So that opened the world of fundamentally changed the American economy. science to me. I was most interested in physical chemistry and thought I would major in that in college, but my father said Fogel asked what the economy would have looked that it wasn’t very practical and persuaded me to go into like in their absence and argued that, while important, electrical engineering. I found a lot of those classes boring the effect of rail service had been greatly overstated. because they covered material I already had in high school, so it wasn’t very interesting and my attention started to drift elsewhere. In 1945 and 1946, there was a lot of talk about Fogel then turned to one of the biggest issues in all whether we were re-entering the Great Depression and the of American history — antebellum slavery. -
Slave Breeding
DIVISION OF THE HUMANITIES AND SOCIAL SCIENCES CALIFORNIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY PASADENA. CALIFORNIA 91125 SLAVE BREEDING Richard Sutch California Institute of Technology University of California, Berkeley An article prepared for the Dictionary of Afro-American Slavery, Randall M. Miller and John David Smith, eds. Greenwood Press, 1986 SOCIAL SCIENCE WORKING PAPER 593 January 1986 ABSTRACT This paper reviews the historical work on slave breeding in the ante-bellum United States. Slave breeding consisted of interference in the sexual life of slaves by their owners with the intent and result of increasing the number of slave children born. The weight of evidence suggests that slave breeding occurred in sufficient force to raise the rate of growth of the American slave population despite evidence that only a minority of slaveowners engaged in such practices. 2 issue of slave breeding, but if the subject was mentioned these historians took the position that the practice did not exist. Winfield Collins, writing in 1904, was the first historian to discuss the SLAVE BREEDING subject in any detail. He rejected the idea that planters Richard Sutch intentionally raised slaves for sale. Instead he suggested that most California Institute of Technology slave sales were forced by exigencies such as bankruptcy of their Contemporary opponents of Afro-American slavery accused southern owners. Collins also presented a calculation designed to show that slave owners, particularly those of the upper South, of deliberately raising slaves would not have been a profitable business considering breeding slaves for the market. The charge was often intended to the price of slaves and the cost of maintaining them. -
Gary Becker and the Art of Economics by Aloysius Siow, Professor of Economics, University of Toronto May 24, 2014
Gary Becker and the Art of Economics by Aloysius Siow, Professor of Economics, University of Toronto May 24, 2014. Gary Becker, an American economist, died on May 3, 2014, at the age of 83. His major contribution was the systematic application of economics to the analysis of social issues. He used economics to study discrimination, criminal behavior, human capital, marriage, fertility and other social issues. Becker won the Nobel Prize in economics in 1992. He also won the John Bates Clark medal, awarded to the best American economist under 40, in 1967; and the Presidential Medal of Freedom, the highest honor award by the US president to a civilian, in 2007. Becker's father, Louis William Becker, migrated from Montreal to the United States at age sixteen and moved several times before settling down in Pottsville, Pennsylvania. Becker's mother was Anna Siskind. He was born in Pottsville in 1930. At age five, Gary and his family moved to Brooklyn. He graduated from James Madison High School and went to Princeton University for college. He did his PhD at the University of Chicago where he met Milton Friedman who would have an enormous influence on his intellectual development. After he obtained his PhD, Becker spent a few years as an assistant professor at the University of Chicago and then moved to Columbia University. In 1970, Becker returned to the University of Chicago where he remained as a professor until his death. While impressive, a list of what he wrote on does not explain why he is so intellectually influential. His mentor, Friedman, always said that "There is no such thing as a free lunch" and applied it widely in market environments. -
This PDF Is a Selection from an Out-Of-Print Volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research
This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: New Directions in Economic Research Volume Author/Editor: NBER Volume Publisher: NBER Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/unkn71-6 Publication Date: 1971 Chapter Title: Front matter to "New Directions in Economic Research" Chapter Author: Various Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c4173 Chapter pages in book: (p. -13 - 0) NATIONAL BU.REAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, INC. 51ST ANNUAL REPORT, SEPTEMBER, 1971 DIRECTIONS IN ECONOMIC RESEARCH COPYRIGHT ©1971BY NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, INC. 261 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK, N. Y. 10016 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED PRINTED IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA The National Bureau of Economic Research was organized in 1920 in response to a growing demand for objective deter- mination of the facts bearing upon economic problems, and for their interpretation in an impartial manner. The National Bureau concentrates on topics of national importance that are susceptible of scientific treatment. The National Bureau seeks not merely to determine and interpret important economic facts, but to do so under such auspices and with such safeguards as shall make its findings carry conviction to all sections of the nation. No report of the research staff may be published without the approval of the Board of Directors. Rigid provisions guard the National Bureau from becoming a source of profit to its members, directors, or officers, and from becoming an agency for propaganda. By issuing its findings in the form of scientific reports, en- tirely divorced from recommendations on policy, the National Bureau hopes to aid all thoughtful men, however divergent their views of public policy, to base their discussions upon objective knowledge as distinguished from subjective opinion. -
Capabilities, Human Flourishing and the Health Gap Amartya Sen
Capabilities, Human Flourishing and the Health Gap Amartya Sen Lecture HDCA Conference Tokyo 2016 Amartya Sen’s insights have been important to my work in at least four ways: providing intellectual justification for my empirical findings that health can be an “outcome” of social and economic processes; providing insight into the debate on relative or absolute inequality; emphasising the central place of freedoms or agency in human well-being; and alerting me to the importance of the question of “inequality of what”. This last is shameful to admit for someone, me, who had been pursuing research on inequalities in health for two decades before I met Sen in person and in his writings. Could I really be obsessed with health inequalities without recognising that there was more than one way to think about inequality? In this Amartya Sen lecture, I will start by sketching briefly how these seminal ideas of Sen influence what I do. More accurately, I should say how Sen’s ideas influence how I think about what I do. For, as just stated, I had been doing it for some time before I encountered Sen’s fundamental contributions – I am a doctor and medical scientist, after all. In particular, my research on health inequalities has focussed on the social gradient in health, its generalisability, how to understand its causes and what to do about it. I have pursued this research since 1976 when I began work on the first Whitehall study(1), and to think about health inequalities more generally (2). Although I had not used the term, “social determinants of health” until later(3), my research on health inequalities fitted that description, along with the research on health of migrants.(4, 5) I will then illustrate the approach in more detail, drawing on my book, The Health Gap. -
On the Mechanics of Economic Development*
Journal of Monetary Economics 22 (1988) 3-42. North-Holland ON THE MECHANICS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT* Robert E. LUCAS, Jr. University of Chicago, Chicago, 1L 60637, USA Received August 1987, final version received February 1988 This paper considers the prospects for constructing a neoclassical theory of growth and interna tional trade that is consistent with some of the main features of economic development. Three models are considered and compared to evidence: a model emphasizing physical capital accumula tion and technological change, a model emphasizing human capital accumulation through school ing. and a model emphasizing specialized human capital accumulation through learning-by-doing. 1. Introduction By the problem of economic development I mean simply the problem of accounting for the observed pattern, across countries and across time, in levels and rates of growth of per capita income. This may seem too narrow a definition, and perhaps it is, but thinking about income patterns will neces sarily involve us in thinking about many other aspects of societies too. so I would suggest that we withhold judgment on the scope of this definition until we have a clearer idea of where it leads us. The main features of levels and rates of growth of national incomes are well enough known to all of us, but I want to begin with a few numbers, so as to set a quantitative tone and to keep us from getting mired in the wrong kind of details. Unless I say otherwise, all figures are from the World Bank's World Development Report of 1983. The diversity across countries in measured per capita income levels is literally too great to be believed. -
A Cliometric Counterfactual: What If There Had Been Neither Fogel Nor
A Cliometric Counterfactual: What if There Had Been Neither Fogel nor North? By Claude Diebolt (CNRS, University of Strasbourg) and Michael Haupert (University of Wisconsin-La Crosse Author contact information: [email protected] [email protected] Preliminary draft, please do not quote Abstract 1993 Nobel laureates Robert Fogel and Douglass North were pioneers in the “new” economic history, or cliometrics. Their impact on the economic history discipline is great, though not without its critics. In this essay, we use both the “old” narrative form of economic history, and the “new” cliometric form, to analyze the impact each had on the evolution of economic history. Introduction In December of 1960 the “Purdue Conference on the Application of Economic Theory and Quantitative Techniques to Problems of History” was held on the campus of Purdue University.1 It is recognized as the first meeting of what is now known as the Cliometric Society.2 While it was the first formal meeting of a group of like-minded applicants of economic theory and quantitative methods to the study of economic history, it was not the first time such a concept had been practiced or mentioned in the literature.3 Cliometrics was a long time in coming, but when it arrived, it eventually overran the approach to the discipline of economic history, leading to a bifurcation of the economists and historians who practice the art, and the blurring of the distinction between cliometricians and theorists who use historical data. Clio’s roots are historical in nature, and its focus on theory has actually come full circle over the last century and a half. -
Sherwin Rosen
Sherwin Rosen Kenneth J. McLaughlin* Hunter College and the Graduate Center of the City University of New York April 2020 Abstract This paper provides a critical survey of Sherwin Rosen’s contributions to economics. I identify the ideas that influenced him and the themes—diversity and inequality—that connect his papers. The model of compensating price differentials (Rosen 1974) is his greatest hit. The more general “equalizing differences” approach was a signature feature of his research in labor economics and other fields. I also evaluate the merits of Rosen (1979), through which he receives credit for the influential Roback-Rosen model in urban economics. And several of his most influential papers substantiate my claim that Rosen was an inequality economist. 1. Introduction Sherwin Rosen was a highly productive and influential scholar. His legacy includes ma- jor contributions to economic theory, labor economics, urban economics, and monopoly pricing. A product of Gregg Lewis’s Labor Workshop, Rosen earned his Ph.D. from the University of Chicago in 1966, two years after joining the economics faculty at the Uni- versity of Rochester as an assistant professor. Returning to Chicago in 1977, Rosen was a leading figure in the economics department until his death at age 62 in 2001, just two months after becoming president of the American Economics Association. Rosen published widely and with influence. He frequently contributed to the Journal of Political Economy, where he published eight full papers and several shorter pieces. His hedonic prices paper (Rosen 1974) is the sixth most cited paper in the 130-year history of the JPE (Amiguet et al. -
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Economics Working Paper Series
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Economics Working Paper Series The Rise and Fall of Economic History at MIT Peter Temin Working Paper 13-11 June 5, 2013 Rev: December 9, 2013 Room E52-251 50 Memorial Drive Cambridge, MA 02142 This paper can be downloaded without charge from the Social Science Research Network Paper Collection at http://ssrn.com/abstract=2274908 The Rise and Fall of Economic History at MIT Peter Temin MIT Abstract This paper recalls the unity of economics and history at MIT before the Second World War, and their divergence thereafter. Economic history at MIT reached its peak in the 1970s with three teachers of the subject to graduates and undergraduates alike. It declined until economic history vanished both from the faculty and the graduate program around 2010. The cost of this decline to current education and scholarship is suggested at the end of the narrative. Key words: economic history, MIT economics, Kindleberger, Domar, Costa, Acemoglu JEL codes: B250, N12 Author contact: [email protected] 1 The Rise and Fall of Economic History at MIT Peter Temin This paper tells the story of economic history at MIT during the twentieth century, even though roughly half the century precedes the formation of the MIT Economics Department. Economic history was central in the development of economics at the start of the century, but it lost its primary position rapidly after the Second World War, disappearing entirely a decade after the end of the twentieth century. I taught economic history to MIT graduate students in economics for 45 years during this long decline, and my account consequently contains an autobiographical bias. -
Robert Fogel Interview
RF Winter 07v43-sig3-INT 2/28/07 11:13 AM Page 44 CORE Metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk Provided by Research Papers in EconomicsINTERVIEW Robert Fogel In the early 1960s, few economic historians engaged RF: I understand that your initial academic interests in rigorous quantitative work. Robert Fogel and the were in the physical sciences. How did you become “Cliometric Revolution” he led changed that. Fogel interested in economics, especially economic history? began to use large and often unique datasets to test Fogel: I became interested in the physical sciences while some long-held conclusions — work that produced attending Stuyvesant High School, which was exceptional in some surprising and controversial results. For that area. I learned a lot of physics, a lot of chemistry. I had instance, it was long believed that the railroads had excellent courses in calculus. So that opened the world of fundamentally changed the American economy. science to me. I was most interested in physical chemistry and thought I would major in that in college, but my father said Fogel asked what the economy would have looked that it wasn’t very practical and persuaded me to go into like in their absence and argued that, while important, electrical engineering. I found a lot of those classes boring the effect of rail service had been greatly overstated. because they covered material I already had in high school, so it wasn’t very interesting and my attention started to drift elsewhere. In 1945 and 1946, there was a lot of talk about Fogel then turned to one of the biggest issues in all whether we were re-entering the Great Depression and the of American history — antebellum slavery. -
The Integration of Economic History Into Economics
Cliometrica https://doi.org/10.1007/s11698-018-0170-8 ORIGINAL PAPER The integration of economic history into economics Robert A. Margo1 Received: 28 June 2017 / Accepted: 16 January 2018 Ó Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2018 Abstract In the USA today the academic field of economic history is much closer to economics than it is to history in terms of professional behavior, a stylized fact that I call the ‘‘integration of economic history into economics.’’ I document this using two types of evidence—use of econometric language in articles appearing in academic journals of economic history and economics; and publication histories of successive cohorts of Ph.D.s in the first decade since receiving the doctorate. Over time, economic history became more like economics in its use of econometrics and in the likelihood of scholars publishing in economics, as opposed to, say, economic history journals. But the pace of change was slower in economic history than in labor economics, another subfield of economics that underwent profound intellec- tual change in the 1950s and 1960s, and there was also a structural break evident for post-2000 Ph.D. cohorts. To account for these features of the data, I sketch a simple, overlapping generations model of the academic labor market in which junior scholars have to convince senior scholars of the merits of their work in order to gain tenure. I argue that the early cliometricians—most notably, Robert Fogel and Douglass North—conceived of a scholarly identity for economic history that kept the field distinct from economics proper in various ways, until after 2000 when their influence had waned.