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Diplomatic Unease Casts Shadow on Jordan-Iran Ties
16 April 23, 2017 News & Analysis Iran Diplomatic unease casts shadow on Jordan-Iran ties The Arab Weekly staff “It is advisable that the Jordanian king take a passing look first at the statistics released about the Jorda- London nian terrorists joining [the Islamic State] and other blood-spilling and iplomatic relations be- ignorant groups and then make tween Jordan and Iran an opinion on Iran which is on the are going through a pe- frontline of the fight against terror- riod of unease following ism and extremism and striving to the trading of insults be- strengthen security in the region,” Dtween Amman and Tehran. Ghasemi said. The Jordanian Foreign Ministry Jordan’s Foreign Ministry said said it summoned Iranian Ambas- Ghasemi’s “unacceptable” com- sador to Amman Mujtaba Fardousi ments were “a failed attempt to Bour to deliver a “strongly worded misrepresent the central role the protest.” kingdom plays in supporting re- The protest was against a state- gional security and stability and ment from Iranian Foreign Minis- fighting terrorism.” try spokesman Bahram Ghasemi branding comments Jordanian King King Abdullah said Abdullah II made to the Washington Iran was involved in Post as “silly and careless.” “strategic problems” King Abdullah told the American in the region. newspaper that Iran was involved in “strategic problems” in the re- gion. “There is an attempt to forge a Former Jordanian Ambassador to geographic link between Iran, Iraq, Tehran Bassam al-Amoush told the Syria and Hezbollah/Lebanon,” he website AlkhaleejOnline.net that said. the “Iranian transgression against He added that Iran’s Islamic Revo- Jordan needed a strong response, lutionary Guards Corps troops were especially since the proximity of within 70km of Jordan’s border and the Iranians from the Jordanian- Better days. -
In Iran? How Did Rouhani Avoid a "Venezuelan : ΩϭοϭϣϟϤϭϧϋ Scenario" in Iran? 21/05/2017 : ΈηϧϟΦϳέύη
How did Rouhani Avoid a "Venezuelan : ωϭοϭϣϟϡγ Scenario" in Iran? How did Rouhani Avoid a "Venezuelan : ωϭοϭϣϟϥϭϧϋ Scenario" in Iran? 21/05/2017 : έηϧϟΦϳέΎΗ ΔϣΩϘΗϣϟΕΎγέΩϟϭΙΎΣΑϸϟϝΑϘΗγϣϟίϛέϣ : ΏΗΎϛϟϡγ : ωϭοϭϣϟ 10/2/2021 2:24:03 AM 1 / 2 Competition between Iran¶s 12th presidential candidates that was held on May 19, 2017, heated up after their debates concluded only one week before the race began, with Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a conservative politician and former military officer, and incumbent Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri, dropped out of the race. In the May 12 third debate which kept its focus on the economic situation, incumbent reformist President Hassan Rouhani, appeared to have taken the lead from conservative candidate Ebrahim Raisi, the current custodian and chairman of Astan Quds Razavi in Mashhad City. Rouhani focused on potential risks that Iran would face if it adopts the economic policies pursued by the conservatives, that, in his view, would result in having what can be called a ³Venezuelan scenario´in Iran.Rouhani pointed out that the other candidates are promising higher financial subsidies for citizens and said it would be possible but might result in a scenario similar to that of Venezuela where inflation rates have soared. For Rouhani, this threatens Iran¶s economic and political stability. This concurs with warnings from some Iranian officials that Iran could be hit by a wave of violence that could be more severe than the 2009 protests staged by a group of reformists, known then as the Green Movement, against the presidential elections in which former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won a second term.Proponents of Ahmadinejad's PoliciesRouhani reaffirmed that such policies are largely similar to economic measures taken by the government of two times President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, especially with regards to providing financial subsidies to citizens, which then caused inflation rates to jump to as high as 40% under the conservative president. -
Iran Report 5 Budget Final Review
A Budget for Challenging Times To what extent will the government’s 2019-20 Budget shield Iranians from economic turmoil? ECONOMIC RISK SERIES NO.3 | MAY 2019 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • Predicting Iran’s revenues for the financial year 2019- 20 (which ends in March 2020) is nearly impossible as the full impact of US sanctions is not yet known. What is certain, however, is that the state will be met with a sizeable budget deficit, ranging from 20% to 45% depending on scenarios. • Iran’s 2019-20 (Persian Year 1398) budget aims to protect the population from the worst effects of the economic crisis, which will involve postponing long- term structural reforms and depleting foreign exchange reserves. The state’s fear of public protest has pushed it to become the world-leading subsidiser of fossil fuels, thus wasting $45bn per year. • The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and religious foundations have seen their budgets increase in the context of the “Resistance Economy”, much to the discontent of Iranians. • Recent floods will cost as much as $2.5bn, a significant burden for the government to bear. Who are we? Castlereagh Associates is a research and analysis company, providing clients with key insights to support their decision-making and enable them to build more competitive and resilient businesses on national, regional and global levels. Copyright © 2019 Castlereagh Associates- All Rights Reserved. Credits: Copyright © Shutterstock IRANIAN PARLIAMENT A BUDGET FOR CHALLENGING TIMES: A Widening Budget Deficit: $76bn $61bn $50bn Planned Revenues Planned Revenues Planned Revenues $72bn $72bn $72bn Planned Spending Planned Spending Planned Spending Source: The draft budget 2019- Source: Donya-e-Eqtesad, Our Worst-Case Scenario 20, presented by Donya-e- March 2019, Page.194 Eqtesad Masood Nili 3 3 ECONOMIC RISK SERIES NO.3 | MAY 2019 Iranian parliamentarians always aim for a zero-deficit budget. -
The Intelligence Organization of the IRGC: a Major Iranian Intelligence Apparatus Dr
רמה כ ז מל ו תשר מה ו ד י ע י ן ( למ מ" ) רמה כרמ כ ז ז מל מה ו י תשר עד מל מה ו ד ו י ד ע י י ע ן י ן ו רטל ( למ ו מ" ר ) כרמ ז מה י עד מל ו ד י ע י ן ו רטל ו ר The Intelligence Organization of the IRGC: A Major Iranian Intelligence Apparatus Dr. Raz Zimmt November 5, 2020 Main Argument The Intelligence Organization of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has become a major intelligence apparatus of the Islamic Republic, having increased its influence and broadened its authorities. Iran’s intelligence apparatus, similar to other control and governance apparatuses in the Islamic Republic, is characterized by power plays, rivalries and redundancy. The Intelligence Organization of the IRGC, which answers to the supreme leader, operates alongside the Ministry of Intelligence, which was established in 1984 and answers to the president. The redundancy and overlap in the authorities of the Ministry of Intelligence and the IRGC’s Intelligence Organization have created disagreements and competition over prestige between the two bodies. In recent years, senior regime officials and officials within the two organizations have attempted to downplay the extent of disagreements between the organizations, and strove to present to domestic and foreign audience a visage of unity. The IRGC’s Intelligence Organization (ILNA, July 16, 2020) The IRGC’s Intelligence Organization, in its current form, was established in 2009. The Organization’s origin is in the Intelligence Unit of the IRGC, established shortly after the Islamic Revolution (1979). -
Iran's Presidential Elections: Results and Implications
Position Paper Iran’s Presidential Elections: Results and Implications 24 June. 2021 Contents Introduction ......................................................... 3 I- Iran’s Presidential Election and Crisis Dimensions .......................................................... 3 II- Iran’s Authoritarian “Engineered” Presidential Election and Priorities of Electoral Participation ........................................................ 5 III- The Results and Implications of the Election ............................................................... 7 IV- The Consequences of Electing Raisi ......... 10 Introduction: Under internal and external pressures, Iran’s political system held its presidential elections on June 18, 2021. The seemingly already determined result showed that “hardline” cleric Ebra- him Raisi won the election. This election was of particular im- portance due to the developments taking place inside and outside Iran. Therefore, its result will have an important impact on the overall situation whether on Iranians at home or on Iran’s foreign relations. This report will highlight the most important develop- ments regarding the election, its results and its implications inside and outside Iran. I- Iran’s Presidential Election and Crisis Dimensions The presidential election took place under critical internal condi- tions as the country continues to suffer from isolation and siege in the aftermath of US sanctions and the Rouhani government’s failure to fulfill its promises. These critical conditions have led to competition -
Aktuelle Hinweise Iran 01.09.2014
01. September 2014 Aktuelle Hinweise IRAN: Non-oil exports up by 20.83% in first 5 months of the Iranian year. Trade volume reaches USD 41 billion and 620 million As per the latest figures released by the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration USD 19 billion and 639 million of goods have been exported and USD 21 billion and 981 million of goods have been imported into the country during the first five months of the Iranian calendar year (starting March 21, 2014). The data show an increase of 20.83% for non-oil exports and of 33.59% for imports compared to the same time last year. The largest shares of goods were imported from Iran by China, Iraq, UAE, Afghanistan and India. The main Iranian export products included liquefied propane, liquefied methanol and butane. The goods Iran imported most of were wheat with a share of 4.97%, vehicles with internal combustion piston engine (more than 1500cc) with 3.66%, rice with 3.47%, corn with 2.63%, and soy meal with 2.42%. The main exporters of goods to Iran were UAE, China, India, South Korea and Turkey respectively. Indigenous automobile production reaches 400k in five months The Iranian automobile production has reached about 405,000 during the first five months of the Iranian calendar year (beginning on March 21, 2014). This corresponds with an increase of 74.3% compared to the same time last year. Eight different automobile models were mainly produced by Iran’s two largest manufacturers SAIPA (Société Anonyme Iranienne de Production Automobile) and IKCO (Iran Khodro). -
INSS Insight No. 1482, June 6, 2021 from Election to Selection: Iran's Path to a New President
INSS Insight No. 1482, June 6, 2021 From Election to Selection: Iran's Path to a New President Raz Zimmt The decision by Iran’s Guardian Council to disqualify the vast majority of the candidates in the coming presidential elections, including former speaker of the Majlis Ali Larijani, and Eshaq Jahangiri, First Vice-President under President Rouhani, in effect leaves the hardline cleric Ebrahim Raisi as the only candidate with real chances of winning the elections. This decision is another reflection of the regime's efforts to strengthen the conservative hegemony in the political elite, especially in advance of the struggle over the succession of Iran's leadership. The regime's blatant intervention in the election process indicates that it is determined to maintain conservative control of power centers even at the cost of further undermining public confidence, and that it estimates that it is capable of suppressing any possible protest. On May 25, 2021, following the screening of all the presidential candidates, Iran’s Guardian Council announced it had approved seven final candidates, out of the 592 candidates (including 40 women) who registered for the elections scheduled for June 18. That the vast majority of the candidates were disqualified came as no surprise. Since the beginning of the 1980s, only a few candidates have passed the screening process under the 12-member Guardian Council, half of whom are clerics appointed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and half of whom are jurists appointed by the Judiciary Chief and approved by the Majlis. This time too, it was expected that the Council would disqualify any candidate it saw as someone who might undermine conservative hegemony in Iranian politics. -
Engaging Iran Australian and Canadian Relations with the Islamic Republic Engaging Iran Australian and Canadian Relations with the Islamic Republic
Engaging Iran Australian and Canadian Relations with the Islamic Republic Engaging Iran Australian and Canadian Relations with the Islamic Republic Robert J. Bookmiller Gulf Research Center i_m(#ÆAk pA'v@uB Dubai, United Arab Emirates (_}A' !_g B/9lu( s{4'1q {xA' 1_{4 b|5 )smdA'c (uA'f'1_B%'=¡(/ *_D |w@_> TBMFT!HSDBF¡CEudA'sGu( XXXHSDBFeCudC'?B uG_GAE#'c`}A' i_m(#ÆAk pA'v@uB9f1s{5 )smdA'c (uA'f'1_B%'cAE/ i_m(#ÆAk pA'v@uBª E#'Gvp*E#'B!v,¢#'E#'1's{5%''tDu{xC)/_9%_(n{wGLi_m(#ÆAk pA'v@uAc8mBmA' , ¡dA'E#'c>EuA'&_{3A'B¢#'c}{3'(E#'c j{w*E#'cGuG{y*E#'c A"'E#'c CEudA%'eC_@c {3EE#'{4¢#_(9_,ud{3' i_m(#ÆAk pA'v@uBB`{wB¡}.0%'9{ymA'E/B`d{wA'¡>ismd{wd{3 *4#/b_dA{w{wdA'¡A_A'?uA' k pA'v@uBuCc,E9)1Eu{zA_(u`*E @1_{xA'!'1"'9u`*1's{5%''tD¡>)/1'==A'uA'f_,E i_m(#ÆA Gulf Research Center 187 Oud Metha Tower, 11th Floor, 303 Sheikh Rashid Road, P. O. Box 80758, Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Tel.: +971 4 324 7770 Fax: +971 3 324 7771 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.grc.ae First published 2009 i_m(#ÆAk pA'v@uB Gulf Research Center (_}A' !_g B/9lu( Dubai, United Arab Emirates s{4'1q {xA' 1_{4 b|5 )smdA'c (uA'f'1_B%'=¡(/ © Gulf Research Center 2009 *_D All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in |w@_> a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, TBMFT!HSDBF¡CEudA'sGu( XXXHSDBFeCudC'?B mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the Gulf Research Center. -
From Rouhani to Raisi: Pressing Questions on the Eve of Iran's
MENU Policy Analysis / PolicyWatch 3503 From Rouhani to Raisi: Pressing Questions on the Eve of Iran’s Election by Omer Carmi Jun 17, 2021 Also available in Arabic / Farsi ABOUT THE AUTHORS Omer Carmi Omer Carmi was a 2017 military fellow at The Washington Institute. Brief Analysis With Ebrahim Raisi’s road to the presidency seemingly paved, the regime has been working to prevent low voter turnout and give him a vote of confidence through a landslide win. his year’s Iranian presidential election cycle will probably be remembered as a dull one. Early in the process, T the Guardian Council disqualified several high-profile figures from running in the June 18 vote, including former Majlis speaker Ali Larijani, Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri, and former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The decision left judiciary chief Ebrahim Raisi as the most prominent candidate with no real competition, making for one of the most boring presidential races in Iran’s history. Even the three public debates failed to create excitement among the citizenry. Despite the lack of fireworks and the near-certain outcome, several important questions have arisen in the lead-up to the vote. The answers could affect the regime’s legitimacy at home and its future policies abroad. What Will the Turnout Be? I ranian leaders have often used high voter turnout as “proof” of both the regime’s support base and the people’s “resistance” to the West. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei continued this tradition in his last speech before the election, claiming that Western media are trying to “decrease the people’s turnout at the ballot boxes.” He then urged Iranians to vote and foil the supposed conspiracy. -
VP Urges Exporters to Return Forex Into National Economy
The Governor-General of Sistan and Iran’s Health Ministry spokeswoman Baluchestan Province Said That the Sima Sadat Lari Said on Tuesday Monday Attack of Jeish ul-Adl That Some 147 More Iranians Have Terrorist Group on the Vehicles of Died From Coronavirus Disease Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards (COVID-19) Over the Past 24 Hours Corps (IRGC) Left No Casualty Bringing the Total Deaths to 10,817 VOL. XXVI, No. 6982 TEHRAN Price 40,000 Rials www.irannewsdaily.com WEDNESDAY JULY 1, 2020 - TIR 11, 1399 2 4 8 DOMESTIC 3 DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL SPORTS Tehran Raps Riyadh, Iran Carpet Exports Europeans’ Trust in U.S. No Major Financial Manama for Backing Experiencing the As World Leader Collapses Impact From U.S. Anti-Iran Stance Worst Condition During Pandemic Wimbledon Cancellation > SEE PAGE 2 > SEE PAGE 3 > SEE PAGE 4 > SEE PAGE 8 Iran Close to Develop VP Urges Exporters to Return viewPoint By: Hamid Reza Naghashian..... COVID-19 Vaccine Al-Kadhimi Should Not IRAN NEWS NATIONAL DESK Forex Into National Economy TEHRAN - The Iranian Minister of Health has said Make a Misstep that the Iranian Corona vaccine has successfully Media outlets had reported that Iraqi Government has tested its animal models and many Iranian ordered its forces to remove the posters and banners of scientists have taken quick steps to develop the martyrs of resistance and sacrifice from the streets and COVID-19 vaccine. public places. Another news claimed that some At the opening ceremony of the Second Pharmex commanders of Hashd Al-Shaabi were raided and Iraq Exhibition, the Iranian Minister of Health Saeed Government’s decision was blamed for this raid. -
RADICALIZATION DURING the ROUHANI YEARS Iran’S Political Shifts and Their Implications Contents
ANALYSIS Political momentum in Iran now lies with the radicals. In the wake of U.S. sanctions, PEACE AND SECURITY President Hassan Rouhani’s policy of moderation has failed to produce promised RADICALIZATION economic growth. DURING THE Political shifts in Iran have up- ended the usual dynamics of inter-factional competition to not only affirm the radicals’ ROUHANI YEARS positions, but to also radical- ize the more moderate forces themselves. The hard-liners Iran’s Political Shifts and Their Implications remain a heterogenous group, with intense disputes over ideology and power. David Jalilvand and Achim Vogt (eds.) March 2021 Tehran’s nuclear and regional policies look set to become even more assertive while Iran’s progress in economic diversification renders con- cessions on its part less attractive. PEACE AND SECURITY RADICALIZATION DURING THE ROUHANI YEARS Iran’s Political Shifts and their Implications Contents Introduction 2 1 THE END OF MODERATION? SOCIAL AND POLITICAL RADICALISM UNDER HASSAN ROUHANI 4 Azadeh Zamirirad 2 RADICAL IRAN: GENERATIONAL CHANGES AND OUTLOOKS 9 Narges Bajoghli 3 IRAN’S HEZBOLLAH: A RADICAL AND DECISIVE POLITICAL CURRENT 15 Walter Posch 4 THE FUTURE OF IRAN’S NUCLEAR POLICY AND APPROACH TO THE JCPOA 23 Dina Esfandiary 5 A RADICAL IRAN: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PERSIAN GULF AND THE LEVANT 29 Hamidreza Azizi 6 IRAN’S RESISTANCE ECONOMY: AMBITIONS AND REALITY 36 David Jalilvand About the Authors 48 1 FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG – RADICALIZATION DURING THE ROUHANI YEARS Introduction At the start of 2021, the political momentum in Iranian stitutions.1 In February 2020, hard-liners constituted the domestic and foreign affairs lies squarely with the radicals. -
Iran Slashes Its Presidential Candidates List by Omer Carmi
MENU Policy Analysis / PolicyWatch 3490 A Race of One? Iran Slashes Its Presidential Candidates List by Omer Carmi May 25, 2021 Also available in Arabic / Farsi ABOUT THE AUTHORS Omer Carmi Omer Carmi was a 2017 military fellow at The Washington Institute. Brief Analysis The regime is seemingly removing any obstacle that might prevent Ebrahim Raisi from winning the presidency and, perhaps, succeeding Khamenei down the road, but the risk of further eroding its internal legitimacy is high. ran’s presidential campaign offered up a “May surprise” this week, with the Guardian Council announcing that I several prominent candidates had been disqualified from running in the June 18 vote. Although mass disqualifications are nothing new for the regime, some of the names on this year’s chopping block were unexpected: only seven of the forty candidates who met the minimum registration criteria earlier this month were ultimately approved to run, and the finalists do not include high-profile figures such as former Majlis speaker Ali Larijani, Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri, or former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. So far, Larijani and other disqualified candidates have announced that they accept the council’s judgment and will not ask Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to overturn it. Yet other prominent figures have been openly critical. Larijani’s brother Sadegh, a former judiciary chief, called the decision “indefensible.” Disqualified reformist Mostafa Tajzadeh went further, arguing that “no responsible citizen should surrender” to the council’s move, then declaring that the decision aimed to topple the “republican” part of the Islamic Republic. Even Ebrahim Raisi—the frontrunner who stands to benefit most from the disqualifications—expressed concern, noting that he has been trying to make the election more competitive and participatory.