2014 NAND Flash Market Update -Supply, Demand and Beyond

2014 NAND Flash Market Update -Supply, Demand and Beyond-

Memory and Storage Division Sean Yang June 5 th , 2014 Supply, Sufficiency and ASP

2014 NAND market revenue continues to grow with solid demand from diversified applications.

60% 51% 31% 7% 23% 14% 16% 19% -7% 5% USD$bn 30 -18% NAND Revenue Growth.(%)

- 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E External Drive/ Consumer Embedded Drive/ ICT Storage

Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014

2014: Supply growth @38% YoY, Demand grwoth@39% YoY. NAND makers are profit-oriented and conservative toward supply strategy. Supply & Demand balance is a new paradigm.

12.3% Unit: 2GB M equiv. 5.8% 6.0% 2.6% 1.9% 30,000 1.3% 1.8% -0.2%

20,000

10,000

- 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E Bit Supply Shipment Bit Demand Shipment

Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014

2014 CAPEX : US$9.2 Bn with 15%yoy , mostly reserved for 3D-NAND in the future. Memory CAPEX is US$15-16 Bn level, allocation favor on NAND.

NAND Flash CAPEX CAPEX: DRAM vs. NAND

Unit: US$M Unit: US$M 12,000 25,000

100% 10,000 20,000 DRAM CAPEX NAND Flash CAPEX 8,000 60% 15,000

6,000 20% 10,000 4,000

-20% 5,000 2,000

0 -60% - 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014

1H14 Weaker OEM and retail market results in over-supply pattern. Momentum from new OEM demand helps to ease S&D imbalance in 2H14.

New iPhone (5.5) iWatch Unit: 2GB M Equiv. New Macbook 10,000 New iPhone (4.7) 20% Samsung Note4 China Smartphone 16%

12%

8% 5,000 4%

-4%

0 -8% 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14F 4Q14F

Supply Volume Demand Volume Sufficiency Ratio

Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014

$40 16GB eMMC 32GB eMMC $6 $35 $5 $30 $4 $25 $3 $20 $2 $15 32Gb MLC TSOP-Channel $10 $1 64Gb MLC TSOP-Channel $5 $-

$350 Embedded (eMMC, SSD) price stably $300 128GB SSD 256GB SSD declined QoQ, mostly reflecting cost

$250 down from migration.

$200 Channel chip price is the mix of $150 market supply and demand.

$100

$50

Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014

Unit: KPCs,12”equiv. 4,000 2014 NAND capacity +8% YoY. Samsung Toshiba/SanDisk SK Hynix Micron/Intel Hynix NAND capacity will be fully Others recovered from 142Q (150k/m).

3,000 Micron Singapore fab transition will be completed, total Micron/Intel NAND capacity is up 235k/m from 142Q. 2,000 Toshiba Fab5 Phase2 infrastructure is set from 14Q3, equipment installation from 14Q4.

1,000 Samsung Xian fab and 3D-NAND schedules fall behind.

Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014

30% Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 20%

10%

0% 30% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14F 4Q14F

20%

10%

0% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14F 4Q14F

30% 20% 10% 0% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14F 4Q14F 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14F 4Q14F -20% Bit output is strongly driven by 1ynm embedded adoption and 1znm-class migration from 2H14.

Supply bit growth is 7-year-low level. Market Share: SEC@37%, TSB/SNDK@35%, MU/INTL:@17%, Hynix:@10% Rational supply strategy is predictable under game theory.

Bit Supply Trend Market Share (Production Base) 133% Unit: 2GB M equiv. 80% 75% 59% 38% 30,000 41% 100% 54%

25,000 80%

20,000 60%

15,000

40% 10,000

20% 5,000

- 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 Others Micron/Intel SK Hynix Toshiba/SNDK Samsung

Operating profit margin stabilization is challenging. SSD, eMMC and eMCP margin >card, UFD. Customer and product portfolio is the key to margin management.

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14

Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 -10% Samsung-NAND SK Hynix-NAND Micron-NAND Toshiba-NAND

80%

60%

40%

20%

0% 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14F 4Q14F 90nm 6X & 7X nm 5Xnm 4Xnm 3Xnm 2xnm 20nm-Class ≤1xnm-Class 3D-NAND

Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 Samsung full lineup for 19nm eMMC, eMCP and SSD is ready in from 1Q14. Toshiba & SanDisk 1ynm eMMC MP schedule is in 142Q. Hynix 16nm eMMC MP schedule is in 142Q. Mostly 1xnm-class SSD for PC schedule from 14Q13. 3D-NAND (%): <2% in 2014

Tech Node 140 Company MP Time Schedule

120 Samsung ~2H14

Toshiba/SanDisk ~2H15 100 SK Hynix ~2H15

80 Micron/Intel ~2H15

60 128Gb 256Gb 1024Gb 3xnm 2xnm 1xnm

40 24 Layers 32 Layers xx Layers 20

- 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014

2D-NAND migration comes to bottleneck from 2015 (1znm is the last generation) . 1znm node will be paralleled to 3D-NAND in 2015 and 2016.

100%

80%

128Gb 60% 64Gb 32Gb 16Gb 40% 8Gb <8Gb

20%

Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 128Gb portion is up to 25% in 4Q14 and cost-efficient in 1znm node production. SSD requires 128Gb or higher chip for larger capacity design. Enterprise-SSD content per box reaches ~600GB in 2014.

3-bits-Cell eMMC, eMCP and SSD are the next drivers for client OEMs. Samsung is pioneering 3-bits-cell SSD for enterprise market from 14Q3.

Hynix and Micron is ready for TLC

1. TSB & SNDK TLC-embedded 2. SEC TLC enterprise-SSD

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0% 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14F 4Q14F Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 SLC MLC TLC

Samsung is introducing full lineups for 3-Bits-Cell embedded products from 14Q3. Other NAND makers 3-Bits-Cell products will be unveiled from 2Q14

Source: Company data, complied by DRAMeXchange,June2014 2013 2014 2015 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

3-Bits-Cell eMMC/eMCP 3-Bits –Client SSD 3-Bits –Cell Enterprise SSD

3-Bits-Cell eMMC/eMCP 3-Bits-Cell Clint SSD

3-Bits –Cell eMMC/eMCP 3-Bits –Cell Cliient SSD

3-Bits-Cell eMMC/eMCP 3-Bits-Cell Clint SSD

3-Bits –Cell eMMC/EMCP 3-Bits -Cell Client SSD

Product Mix Unit: K/M Capacity

400 100%

80% 300

60% 200 40%

100 20%

0 0% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14 4Q14F 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14 4Q14F Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 TLC MLC SLC 2014 target bit growth:40%YoY Xian-An Fab production has been initiated from 1Q14 and dedicated on 3D-NAND. TLC-basis eMMC and SSD is the key in 2014. Strength: Strong leverage with Samsung smartphone and tablet.

Product Mix Unit: K/M Capacity 400 100%

80% 300

60% 200 40%

100 20%

0 0% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14 4Q14F 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14 4Q14F Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 TLC MLC SLC 2014 target bit growth:35%YoY Fab5 Phase2 infrastructure will be completed in 3Q14 for 1znm and 3D-NAND. TLC-Basis embedded products are scheduled from 3Q14. Toshiba is seeking more engagement with more 1 st -tier OEMs. SanDisk targets >25% SSD revenue contribution in 2014, strongly focus on enterprise- SSD.

Product Mix Unit: K/M Capacity 400 100%

300 80%

60% 200 40%

100 20%

0 0% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14 4Q14F 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14 4Q14F Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 TLC MLC SLC NAND capacity is recovered to normal level (150k/m) from late 1Q14. In-house eMMC and SSD controller is the key to embedded product success. TLC-basis eMMC and SSD schedule to ramp from 2H14.

Product Mix Unit: K/M Capacity

400 100%

80% 300

60% 200

40%

100 20%

- 0% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14 4Q14F 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14 4Q14F Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 TLC MLC SLC 2014 target bit growth:45-50%YoY. Singapore fab fabrication transition to NAND will be completed in 142Q. Next generation mobile embedded will catch up from 4Q14 when Elpida mDRAM and new controller is fully utilized. Intel positioned itself as a enterprise-SSD technology enabler in the field.

Demand catalyst continues with strong mobile and enterprise applications. SSD is #No.1 growth driver in 2014. Smartphone+ Tablet+ SSD consumes ~80% of total NAND.

Unit: 2GB M equiv. Demand Bit Volume Demand by Application

30,000 100%

25,000 80% SSD 20,000 60% Tablet 15,000 Handset 40% 10,000

5,000 20%

0 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014

Apple and Samsung have series of new product launch at from143Q. Demand bit growth from Apple and Samsung outperforms market average in 3Q14, significantly helps to ease the market imbalance. Apple and Samsung steadily consume ~30% of total NAND.

APPL: iPhone 6 (5.5”)

APPL: iPhone6, iPad, iWatch Unit: 1GB M Equiv. SEC: Note4, new SSD 20,000

+21% 15,000

10,000 +14%

5,000

0 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14F 4Q14F Others Vol. Samsung Vol. Apple Vol. Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014

eMMC Consumption(%) Consumption by Application

Unit: 2GB M equiv. 100% 30,000 Tablet

80% Smartphone 25,000 60%

40%

20,000 20%

0% -Total NAND Demand 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14F 4Q14F --eMMC Demand- 15,000 Shipment by Density 100%

80% 10,000 64GB 32GB 25% 60% 16GB 8GB 23% 40% 5,000 4GB 2GB 16% 20% 10% 0% 0 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q13E 3Q14F 4Q14F 2011 2012 2013 2014E Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 eMMC market grows along with solid mobile devices. Middle/Low –end models stifles eMMC content per box.

eMMC is widely adopted for better performance and advanced O.S. eMMC is storage standard for major AP vendors. Apple use pure NAND only.

eMMC % in Smartphone eMMC % in Tablet

Unit: Million Unit: Million

400 100

70% 74% 80% 59% 59% 51% 64% 58% 36% 46% 46% 76% 81% 80 65% 71% 58% 60% 300 63% 24% 48% 53% 52% 43%

60 20%

200

100 20

0 0 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14F 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14F Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014

1Q14 smartphone drops 6%qoq for seasonality. 2Q14 pick-up from low-end models. Middle/Low-end models are carrying the catalyst in 2014. (60% in 2013-80% in 2014)

Unit: Million 400

300

200

100

0 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14F 4Q14F

High-end Smartphone Middle-end Smartphone Low-end Smartphone

Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014

Slowing eMMC content growth is attributed by middle-low end devices. Traditional MCP is replaced by eMMC or eMCP for new Android O.S and apps.

Unit: Million 400

300

200

100

0 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14F 4Q14F

Smartphone in eMMC Smartphone in MCP Smartphone in Discrete NAND

Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . June, 2014 |Page 27 Tablet: Market Continues to Raise with Limited Content Growth. 1H14 tablet demand is muted, only 2%HoH compared with 1H13. Overall demand picks up from 3Q14 for new models unveiled. Tablet eMMC content declined in 2014 due to ultra-low price tablet raise. Raw NAND is still popular among Chinese white-box for cost concern.

Unit: Million

100

0 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14F 4Q14F

Tablet in eMMC Tablet in Discrete NAND-White Box Tablet in Discrete NAND

Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014

2013 Vendor Controller House

Samsung (19nm) In-House Samsung SanDisk SanDisk (19nm) In-House

SK Hynix SK Hynix (20nm) SMI Toshiba Toshiba (19nm) In-House Micron Kingston Micron (20nm) Phison Others Kingston (19nm) Phison Others SMI, Skymedi, Phison, etc…

Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 770mn eMMC units Samsung is leading with strong position in eMMC and eMCP, leveraged Samsung smartphone. SanDisk has most diversified customer portfolios than any other eMMC vendors. 3rd -party controller houses will find it difficult to compete with in-house solution.

2014 Vendor Controller House

Samsung (19nm) In-House Samsung SanDisk SanDisk (1ynm) In-House SK Hynix SK Hynix (16nm) In-House, SMI Toshiba Toshiba (A19nm) In-House Micron Kingston Micron (16nm) In-House Others Kingston (A19nm) Phison Others SMI, Skymedi, Phison, etc…

Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 1,100mn eMMC units eMMC Market share pattern remains stable. In-House Solutions are dominating. TWN vendors are narrowing to supplementary role.

PC-Client SSD shipment outnumbers but enterprise-SSD consumption is higher. Total SSD market size increases 87% /36%/37% for 2013/2014/2015 Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014

$3 Unit: Thousand SSD vs. HDD ($/GB) 150,000

120,000 $1

90,000 $0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015F HDD 0.27 0.15 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 SSD-OEM 2.39 1.70 0.99 0.71 0.51 0.38

60,000

2013 SSD volume 2014 SSD Volume

30,000

0 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015F Industrial SSD Enterprise SSD PC Retail SSD PC OEM-SSD PC+Retail Enterprise+Industrial

2013 2013

Samsung Intel Toshiba LSI-SandForce SanDisk Marvell In-House Micron Others Lite-On Kingston Others

Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 ~34mn units

Samsung is prevailing PC-OEM SSD in either MLC or TLC products. In-House SSD controller is facilitating to performance and time to market. Marvell flexible business model helps the PC-SSD makers on product differentiation.

2014 2014

Samsung Intel Toshiba LSI-SandForce SanDisk Marvell Micron In-House Lite-On Others Kingston Others

Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 ~36mn units

2014 NB market drops 2%YoY with limited growing SSD penetration rate. Expanded market share for Samsung is credit to higher TLC-SSD in 1 st -tier PC makers.

2013 2013

Kingston

Samsung LSI-SandForce Crucial Marvell OCZ Samsung Corsair Others Adata Lite-On Others

Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 ~10mn units

LSI-SandForce remains No#1 for retail brand for comprehensive firmware support. Strong Samsung retail SSD sales is attributed by TLC-base SSD.

2014 2014

Kingston Samsung LSI-SandForce Crucial Marvell OCZ Samsung Corsair Others Adata Lite-On Others

Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 ~13mn units

LSI-SandForce is still No#1 due to Kingston. Market share is consolidated to strong brand makers. 3rd -party SSD controller houses are moving to white-box or module houses.

Supply 2014 supply bit growth is 38%, bit output is mainly derived from node migration while wafer capacity only increases by 8%. To cope with middle/low-end mobile devices, TLC-Basis eMMC and SSD are next battlefield. Most NAND makers will be ready from 2H14. 1xnm-class eMMC, eMCP and SSD will become mainstream products from 2Q14; 3D-NAND remains future story for 2015. Demand 2014 demand bit growth is 39%. Smartphone, tablet and SSD continue to drive the market upward. Despite of strong end-device shipment pattern, content-per-box growth is limited due to cost concern and enhanced popularity of middle/low end models. SSD outperforms other applications in 2014, credit to solid demand from enterprise-SSD.

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