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2014 NAND Flash Market Update -Supply, Demand and Beyond

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2014 NAND Flash Market Update -Supply, Demand and Beyond- Memory and Storage Division Sean Yang June 5 th , 2014 Supply, Sufficiency and ASP ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . June, 2014 |Page 2 NAND Market Revenue Trend 2014 NAND market revenue continues to grow with solid demand from diversified applications. 60% 51% 31% 7% 23% 14% 16% 19% -7% 5% USD$bn 30 -18% NAND Revenue Growth.(%) 25 20 15 10 5 - 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E External Drive/ Consumer Embedded Drive/ ICT Storage Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . June, 2014 |Page 3 2014 NAND Market: Balance is the Theme 2014: Supply growth @38% YoY, Demand grwoth@39% YoY. NAND makers are profit-oriented and conservative toward supply strategy. Supply & Demand balance is a new paradigm. 12.3% Unit: 2GB M equiv. 5.8% 6.0% 2.6% 1.9% 30,000 1.3% 1.8% -0.2% 20,000 10,000 - 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E Bit Supply Shipment Bit Demand Shipment Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . June, 2014 |Page 4 CAPEX: Preparation for 3D-NAND Era 2014 CAPEX : US$9.2 Bn with 15%yoy , mostly reserved for 3D-NAND in the future. Memory CAPEX is US$15-16 Bn level, allocation favor on NAND. NAND Flash CAPEX CAPEX: DRAM vs. NAND Unit: US$M Unit: US$M 12,000 25,000 100% 10,000 20,000 DRAM CAPEX NAND Flash CAPEX 8,000 60% 15,000 6,000 20% 10,000 4,000 -20% 5,000 2,000 0 -60% - 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . June, 2014 |Page 5 2014 Quarterly Sufficiency 1H14 Weaker OEM and retail market results in over-supply pattern. Momentum from new OEM demand helps to ease S&D imbalance in 2H14. New iPhone (5.5) iWatch Unit: 2GB M Equiv. New Macbook 10,000 New iPhone (4.7) 20% Samsung Note4 China Smartphone 16% 12% 8% 5,000 4% 0% -4% 0 -8% 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14F 4Q14F Supply Volume Demand Volume Sufficiency Ratio Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . June, 2014 |Page 6 ASP Trend: Different Pattern for OEM and Channel $40 16GB eMMC 32GB eMMC $6 $35 $5 $30 $4 $25 $3 $20 $2 $15 32Gb MLC TSOP-Channel $10 $1 64Gb MLC TSOP-Channel $5 $- $350 Embedded (eMMC, SSD) price stably $300 128GB SSD 256GB SSD declined QoQ, mostly reflecting cost $250 down from migration. $200 Channel chip price is the mix of $150 market supply and demand. $100 $50 Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . June, 2014 |Page 7 NAND Capacity: Added Slightly for 2014 Unit: KPCs,12”equiv. 4,000 2014 NAND capacity +8% YoY. Samsung Toshiba/SanDisk SK Hynix Micron/Intel Hynix NAND capacity will be fully Others recovered from 142Q (150k/m). 3,000 Micron Singapore fab transition will be completed, total Micron/Intel NAND capacity is up 235k/m from 142Q. 2,000 Toshiba Fab5 Phase2 infrastructure is set from 14Q3, equipment installation from 14Q4. 1,000 Samsung Xian fab and 3D-NAND schedules fall behind. - Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . June, 2014 |Page 8 2014 Bit Output: Derived from Node Migration more 30% Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 20% 10% 0% 30% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14F 4Q14F 20% 10% 0% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14F 4Q14F 30% 20% 10% 0% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14F 4Q14F 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14F 4Q14F -20% Bit output is strongly driven by 1ynm embedded adoption and 1znm-class migration from 2H14. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . June, 2014 |Page 9 Supply Dynamics: Limited Growth &Constant Share Supply bit growth is 7-year-low level. Market Share: SEC@37%, TSB/SNDK@35%, MU/INTL:@17%, Hynix:@10% Rational supply strategy is predictable under game theory. Bit Supply Trend Market Share (Production Base) 133% Unit: 2GB M equiv. 80% 75% 59% 38% 30,000 41% 100% 54% 25,000 80% 20,000 60% 15,000 40% 10,000 20% 5,000 - 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 Others Micron/Intel SK Hynix Toshiba/SNDK Samsung ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . June, 2014 |Page 10 NAND Financials : Profitability Remains but Squeezing Operating profit margin stabilization is challenging. SSD, eMMC and eMCP margin >card, UFD. Customer and product portfolio is the key to margin management. 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 -10% Samsung-NAND SK Hynix-NAND Micron-NAND Toshiba-NAND ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . June, 2014 |Page 11 Migration: 1xnm-class Embedded is through 2014, Limited Exposure for 3D-NAND 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14F 4Q14F 90nm 6X & 7X nm 5Xnm 4Xnm 3Xnm 2xnm 20nm-Class ≤1xnm-Class 3D-NAND Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 Samsung full lineup for 19nm eMMC, eMCP and SSD is ready in from 1Q14. Toshiba & SanDisk 1ynm eMMC MP schedule is in 142Q. Hynix 16nm eMMC MP schedule is in 142Q. Mostly 1xnm-class SSD for PC schedule from 14Q13. 3D-NAND (%): <2% in 2014 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . June, 2014 |Page 12 3D-NAND is the Next Super Star Tech Node 140 Company MP Time Schedule 120 Samsung ~2H14 Toshiba/SanDisk ~2H15 100 SK Hynix ~2H15 80 Micron/Intel ~2H15 60 128Gb 256Gb 1024Gb 3xnm 2xnm 1xnm 40 24 Layers 32 Layers xx Layers 20 - 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 2D-NAND migration comes to bottleneck from 2015 (1znm is the last generation) . 1znm node will be paralleled to 3D-NAND in 2015 and 2016. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . June, 2014 |Page 13 Density: SSD and Node Migration Drives Density 100% 80% 128Gb 60% 64Gb 32Gb 16Gb 40% 8Gb <8Gb 20% 0% Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 128Gb portion is up to 25% in 4Q14 and cost-efficient in 1znm node production. SSD requires 128Gb or higher chip for larger capacity design. Enterprise-SSD content per box reaches ~600GB in 2014. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . June, 2014 |Page 14 Technology: 3-Bits-Cell Embedded is the Key 3-bits-Cell eMMC, eMCP and SSD are the next drivers for client OEMs. Samsung is pioneering 3-bits-cell SSD for enterprise market from 14Q3. Hynix and Micron is ready for TLC 1. TSB & SNDK TLC-embedded 2. SEC TLC enterprise-SSD 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14F 4Q14F Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 SLC MLC TLC ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . June, 2014 |Page 15 Roadmap for 3-Bits-Cell Schedule Samsung is introducing full lineups for 3-Bits-Cell embedded products from 14Q3. Other NAND makers 3-Bits-Cell products will be unveiled from 2Q14 Source: Company data, complied by DRAMeXchange,June2014 2013 2014 2015 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 3-Bits-Cell eMMC/eMCP 3-Bits –Client SSD 3-Bits –Cell Enterprise SSD 3-Bits-Cell eMMC/eMCP 3-Bits-Cell Clint SSD 3-Bits –Cell eMMC/eMCP 3-Bits –Cell Cliient SSD 3-Bits-Cell eMMC/eMCP 3-Bits-Cell Clint SSD 3-Bits –Cell eMMC/EMCP 3-Bits -Cell Client SSD ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . June, 2014 |Page 16 NAND Flash Vendor Review-Samsung Product Mix Unit: K/M Capacity 400 100% 80% 300 60% 200 40% 100 20% 0 0% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14 4Q14F 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14 4Q14F Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 TLC MLC SLC 2014 target bit growth:40%YoY Xian-An Fab production has been initiated from 1Q14 and dedicated on 3D-NAND. TLC-basis eMMC and SSD is the key in 2014. Strength: Strong leverage with Samsung smartphone and tablet. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . June, 2014 |Page 17 NAND Flash Vendor Review-SanDisk/Toshiba Product Mix Unit: K/M Capacity 400 100% 80% 300 60% 200 40% 100 20% 0 0% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14 4Q14F 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14 4Q14F Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 TLC MLC SLC 2014 target bit growth:35%YoY Fab5 Phase2 infrastructure will be completed in 3Q14 for 1znm and 3D-NAND. TLC-Basis embedded products are scheduled from 3Q14. Toshiba is seeking more engagement with more 1 st -tier OEMs. SanDisk targets >25% SSD revenue contribution in 2014, strongly focus on enterprise- SSD. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . June, 2014 |Page 18 NAND Flash Vendor Review-SK Hynix Product Mix Unit: K/M Capacity 400 100% 300 80% 60% 200 40% 100 20% 0 0% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14 4Q14F 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14 4Q14F Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 TLC MLC SLC NAND capacity is recovered to normal level (150k/m) from late 1Q14. In-house eMMC and SSD controller is the key to embedded product success. TLC-basis eMMC and SSD schedule to ramp from 2H14.
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    Portfolio Media, Inc. | 648 Broadway, Suite 200 | New York, NY 10012 | www.law360.com Phone: +1 212 537 6331 | Fax: +1 212 537 6371 | [email protected] 4 Cos. Don't Infringe SanDisk Flash Patents: ITC By Ryan Davis Law360, New York (April 13, 2009) -- An administrative law judge for the U.S. International Trade Commission has ruled that flash memory products made by Silicon Motion Technology Corp., Phison Electronics Corp., Skymedi Corp and Imation Corp. do not infringe two patents held by SanDisk Corp., a setback for SanDisk in a patent case it originally brought against dozens of competitors. In an initial determination issued Friday, Administrative Law Judge Charles E. Bullock ruled that the four companies did not infringe the asserted claims of SanDisk's patents, and that one claim of one of the patents was invalid for obviousness. Both patents involve methods for storing and organizing data in portable flash memory devices. “SanDisk tried to coerce the flash memory industry to pay unwarranted license fees on patents of limited value,” said Mike Bettinger, an attorney for Taiwan-based Silicon Motion. “We said from the beginning that the SanDisk patents don’t cover Silicon Motion products. We are pleased with the fact that Silicon Motion came away with a complete victory.” E. Earle Thompson, SanDisk's vice president and chief intellectual property counsel, said in a statement that the company was disappointed by the ruling. “We will continue to vigorously pursue actions against companies that use SanDisk’s patented technology without a license,” Thompson said. “SanDisk expects that the Initial Determination will not adversely impact existing licensing agreements or the royalties expected from those agreements.” The patents-at-issue in the ruling are U.S.
  • Manual 417045 OCZ VTX3-25SAT3-480G

    Manual 417045 OCZ VTX3-25SAT3-480G

    OCZ Solid State Drive Breakdown Delivering performance, versatility, and reliability that other SSD lines cannot offer 2.5 inch SATA III Capacity Max Read Max Write Random 4K Write Technology NAND Vector Series – groundbreaking storage performance Product Page VTR1-25SAT3-128G 128GB 550MB/s 400MB/s 90,000 IOPS Indilinx Barefoot 3 VTR1-25SAT3-256G 256GB 550MB/s 530MB/s 95,000 IOPS Advanced suite of NAND flash Sync VTR1-25SAT3-512G 512GB 550MB/s 530MB/s 95,000 IOPS management for reliability MLC Idle time garbage collection Vertex 4 Series - Rethinking storage performance and endurance with a cutting-edge new architecture Product Page VTX4-25SATA3-64G 64GB 460MB/s 220MB/s 70,000 IOPS Indilinx Everest 2 VTX4-25SATA3-128G 128GB 560MB/s 430MB/s 90,000 IOPS Ndurance™ 2.01 Sync VTX4-25SATA3-256G 256GB 560MB/s 510MB/s 90,000 IOPS Latency reduction MLC VTX4-25SATA3-512G 512GB 560MB/s 510MB/s 95,000 IOPS Up to 1GB cache Vertex 3 Max IOPS Series - Maximizes data throughput with increased random IOPS performance Product Page VTX3MI-25SAT3-120G 120GB 550MB/s 500MB/s 75,000 IOPS SandForce 2200 Toggle VTX3MI-25SAT3-240G 240GB 550MB/s 500MB/s 65,000 IOPS MLC Vertex 3 Series - Excellent performance & endurance for write-intensive applications Product Page 7mm Product Page VTX3-25SAT3-60G 60GB 535MB/s 480MB/s 60,000 IOPS VTX3-25SAT3-90G 90GB 550MB/s 500MB/s 60,000 IOPS VTX3-25SAT3-120G 120GB 550MB/s 500MB/s 60,000 IOPS VTX3-25SAT3-128G 128GB 550MB/s 500MB/s 60,000 IOPS SandForce 2200 Sync VTX3-25SAT3-240G 240GB 550MB/s 500MB/s 60,000 IOPS MLC VTX3-25SAT3-256G
  • Sandforce® SF3500 Family

    Sandforce® SF3500 Family

    SandForce® SF3500 Family CLIENT FLASH CONTROLLERS Data Sheet Rapidly evolving NAND flash memory that leverages new flash types and Key Features and Benefits technologies delivers benefits in a form of higher density and lower cost per GB. At • Optimized for client SSD the same time, as NAND flash memory geometries shrink, delivering the endurance applications and reliability that customers demand becomes more challenging. • Scalable and flexible SF3000 The Seagate® SandForce SF3500 family of flash controllers is engineered to solve architecture the challenges of evolving NAND flash memory, and enable SSD manufacturers to • Native SATA and PCIe NVMe build robust SATA and PCIe NVMe SSDs with a greater capacity using the most interfaces in a single ASIC design advanced NAND flash memory for cost-sensitive client SSD applications. • Up to 1TB capacity • Supports the latest 10nm-class Performance and Power Optimizations MLC, TLC and 3D NAND flash SF3500 flash controllers deliver exceptional, consistent performance in real-world • DRAM support for improved applications with balanced read/write speeds and low predictable latency even latency with high entropy data. The SF3500 family is optimized for low-power environments • Award-winning DuraClass™ and supports ultra-low power sleep modes to maximize battery life and meet the technology delivers enhanced aggressive power requirements in the latest laptop and Ultrabook systems. performance, endurance, reliability and power efficiency Endurance and Reliability • SHIELD™ advanced error correction combines LDPC and DSP for The SF3500 family combines several techniques to extend flash memory life higher data reliability and longer and maintain data integrity. Enhanced DuraWrite™ data reduction lowers write endurance amplification and P/E cycles to maximize SSD endurance.