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2014 NAND Flash Market Update -Supply, Demand and Beyond

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2014 NAND Flash Market Update -Supply, Demand and Beyond 2014 NAND Flash Market Update -Supply, Demand and Beyond- Memory and Storage Division Sean Yang June 5 th , 2014 Supply, Sufficiency and ASP ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . June, 2014 |Page 2 NAND Market Revenue Trend 2014 NAND market revenue continues to grow with solid demand from diversified applications. 60% 51% 31% 7% 23% 14% 16% 19% -7% 5% USD$bn 30 -18% NAND Revenue Growth.(%) 25 20 15 10 5 - 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E External Drive/ Consumer Embedded Drive/ ICT Storage Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . June, 2014 |Page 3 2014 NAND Market: Balance is the Theme 2014: Supply growth @38% YoY, Demand grwoth@39% YoY. NAND makers are profit-oriented and conservative toward supply strategy. Supply & Demand balance is a new paradigm. 12.3% Unit: 2GB M equiv. 5.8% 6.0% 2.6% 1.9% 30,000 1.3% 1.8% -0.2% 20,000 10,000 - 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E Bit Supply Shipment Bit Demand Shipment Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . June, 2014 |Page 4 CAPEX: Preparation for 3D-NAND Era 2014 CAPEX : US$9.2 Bn with 15%yoy , mostly reserved for 3D-NAND in the future. Memory CAPEX is US$15-16 Bn level, allocation favor on NAND. NAND Flash CAPEX CAPEX: DRAM vs. NAND Unit: US$M Unit: US$M 12,000 25,000 100% 10,000 20,000 DRAM CAPEX NAND Flash CAPEX 8,000 60% 15,000 6,000 20% 10,000 4,000 -20% 5,000 2,000 0 -60% - 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . June, 2014 |Page 5 2014 Quarterly Sufficiency 1H14 Weaker OEM and retail market results in over-supply pattern. Momentum from new OEM demand helps to ease S&D imbalance in 2H14. New iPhone (5.5) iWatch Unit: 2GB M Equiv. New Macbook 10,000 New iPhone (4.7) 20% Samsung Note4 China Smartphone 16% 12% 8% 5,000 4% 0% -4% 0 -8% 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14F 4Q14F Supply Volume Demand Volume Sufficiency Ratio Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . June, 2014 |Page 6 ASP Trend: Different Pattern for OEM and Channel $40 16GB eMMC 32GB eMMC $6 $35 $5 $30 $4 $25 $3 $20 $2 $15 32Gb MLC TSOP-Channel $10 $1 64Gb MLC TSOP-Channel $5 $- $350 Embedded (eMMC, SSD) price stably $300 128GB SSD 256GB SSD declined QoQ, mostly reflecting cost $250 down from migration. $200 Channel chip price is the mix of $150 market supply and demand. $100 $50 Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . June, 2014 |Page 7 NAND Capacity: Added Slightly for 2014 Unit: KPCs,12”equiv. 4,000 2014 NAND capacity +8% YoY. Samsung Toshiba/SanDisk SK Hynix Micron/Intel Hynix NAND capacity will be fully Others recovered from 142Q (150k/m). 3,000 Micron Singapore fab transition will be completed, total Micron/Intel NAND capacity is up 235k/m from 142Q. 2,000 Toshiba Fab5 Phase2 infrastructure is set from 14Q3, equipment installation from 14Q4. 1,000 Samsung Xian fab and 3D-NAND schedules fall behind. - Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . June, 2014 |Page 8 2014 Bit Output: Derived from Node Migration more 30% Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 20% 10% 0% 30% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14F 4Q14F 20% 10% 0% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14F 4Q14F 30% 20% 10% 0% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14F 4Q14F 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14F 4Q14F -20% Bit output is strongly driven by 1ynm embedded adoption and 1znm-class migration from 2H14. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . June, 2014 |Page 9 Supply Dynamics: Limited Growth &Constant Share Supply bit growth is 7-year-low level. Market Share: SEC@37%, TSB/SNDK@35%, MU/INTL:@17%, Hynix:@10% Rational supply strategy is predictable under game theory. Bit Supply Trend Market Share (Production Base) 133% Unit: 2GB M equiv. 80% 75% 59% 38% 30,000 41% 100% 54% 25,000 80% 20,000 60% 15,000 40% 10,000 20% 5,000 - 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 Others Micron/Intel SK Hynix Toshiba/SNDK Samsung ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . June, 2014 |Page 10 NAND Financials : Profitability Remains but Squeezing Operating profit margin stabilization is challenging. SSD, eMMC and eMCP margin >card, UFD. Customer and product portfolio is the key to margin management. 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 -10% Samsung-NAND SK Hynix-NAND Micron-NAND Toshiba-NAND ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . June, 2014 |Page 11 Migration: 1xnm-class Embedded is through 2014, Limited Exposure for 3D-NAND 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14F 4Q14F 90nm 6X & 7X nm 5Xnm 4Xnm 3Xnm 2xnm 20nm-Class ≤1xnm-Class 3D-NAND Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 Samsung full lineup for 19nm eMMC, eMCP and SSD is ready in from 1Q14. Toshiba & SanDisk 1ynm eMMC MP schedule is in 142Q. Hynix 16nm eMMC MP schedule is in 142Q. Mostly 1xnm-class SSD for PC schedule from 14Q13. 3D-NAND (%): <2% in 2014 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . June, 2014 |Page 12 3D-NAND is the Next Super Star Tech Node 140 Company MP Time Schedule 120 Samsung ~2H14 Toshiba/SanDisk ~2H15 100 SK Hynix ~2H15 80 Micron/Intel ~2H15 60 128Gb 256Gb 1024Gb 3xnm 2xnm 1xnm 40 24 Layers 32 Layers xx Layers 20 - 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 2D-NAND migration comes to bottleneck from 2015 (1znm is the last generation) . 1znm node will be paralleled to 3D-NAND in 2015 and 2016. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . June, 2014 |Page 13 Density: SSD and Node Migration Drives Density 100% 80% 128Gb 60% 64Gb 32Gb 16Gb 40% 8Gb <8Gb 20% 0% Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 128Gb portion is up to 25% in 4Q14 and cost-efficient in 1znm node production. SSD requires 128Gb or higher chip for larger capacity design. Enterprise-SSD content per box reaches ~600GB in 2014. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . June, 2014 |Page 14 Technology: 3-Bits-Cell Embedded is the Key 3-bits-Cell eMMC, eMCP and SSD are the next drivers for client OEMs. Samsung is pioneering 3-bits-cell SSD for enterprise market from 14Q3. Hynix and Micron is ready for TLC 1. TSB & SNDK TLC-embedded 2. SEC TLC enterprise-SSD 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14F 4Q14F Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 SLC MLC TLC ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . June, 2014 |Page 15 Roadmap for 3-Bits-Cell Schedule Samsung is introducing full lineups for 3-Bits-Cell embedded products from 14Q3. Other NAND makers 3-Bits-Cell products will be unveiled from 2Q14 Source: Company data, complied by DRAMeXchange,June2014 2013 2014 2015 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 3-Bits-Cell eMMC/eMCP 3-Bits –Client SSD 3-Bits –Cell Enterprise SSD 3-Bits-Cell eMMC/eMCP 3-Bits-Cell Clint SSD 3-Bits –Cell eMMC/eMCP 3-Bits –Cell Cliient SSD 3-Bits-Cell eMMC/eMCP 3-Bits-Cell Clint SSD 3-Bits –Cell eMMC/EMCP 3-Bits -Cell Client SSD ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . June, 2014 |Page 16 NAND Flash Vendor Review-Samsung Product Mix Unit: K/M Capacity 400 100% 80% 300 60% 200 40% 100 20% 0 0% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14 4Q14F 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14 4Q14F Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 TLC MLC SLC 2014 target bit growth:40%YoY Xian-An Fab production has been initiated from 1Q14 and dedicated on 3D-NAND. TLC-basis eMMC and SSD is the key in 2014. Strength: Strong leverage with Samsung smartphone and tablet. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . June, 2014 |Page 17 NAND Flash Vendor Review-SanDisk/Toshiba Product Mix Unit: K/M Capacity 400 100% 80% 300 60% 200 40% 100 20% 0 0% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14 4Q14F 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14 4Q14F Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 TLC MLC SLC 2014 target bit growth:35%YoY Fab5 Phase2 infrastructure will be completed in 3Q14 for 1znm and 3D-NAND. TLC-Basis embedded products are scheduled from 3Q14. Toshiba is seeking more engagement with more 1 st -tier OEMs. SanDisk targets >25% SSD revenue contribution in 2014, strongly focus on enterprise- SSD. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . June, 2014 |Page 18 NAND Flash Vendor Review-SK Hynix Product Mix Unit: K/M Capacity 400 100% 300 80% 60% 200 40% 100 20% 0 0% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14 4Q14F 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E 3Q14 4Q14F Source: DRAMeXchange,June2014 TLC MLC SLC NAND capacity is recovered to normal level (150k/m) from late 1Q14. In-house eMMC and SSD controller is the key to embedded product success. TLC-basis eMMC and SSD schedule to ramp from 2H14.
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