June 24, 2011 Company Report
SM Entertainment (041510 KQ) Entertainment
An irresistible Buy! Chang-kwean Kim +822-768-4321 [email protected]
Global expansion efforts beginning to bear fruit Jee-hyun Moon SM Entertainment (SM) is growing as a global player in the music industry, tapping +822-768-3615 into the European, North American, and South American markets (on top of the [email protected]
Asian market). Indeed, songs, music videos, and concert footage featuring SM artists are spreading around the world through social media websites such as
YouTube and Facebook. The global music market should offer numerous new opportunities to SM, especially considering the companyÊs content development capability has proven to be superior to that of its domestic rivals.
Maintain Buy rating with TP of W30,000 Buy (Maintain) SMÊs shares have remained stagnant since early this year, due to: ① low earnings Target Price (12M, W) 30,000 predictability (earnings are dependant on the success/failure of songs); ② Share Price (06/23/11, W) 18,900 uncontrollable risks inherent to the industry (scandals, etc.); ③ sell-offs by large Expected Return (%) 58.7 shareholders; and ④ deterioration of quarterly earnings. However, we expect the EPS Growth (11F, %) -32.9 stock to break out of its current trading range, given the companyÊs Japanese Market EPS Growth (11F, %) 23.4 earnings momentum. P/E (11F, x) 21.0 Market P/E (11F, x) 10.4 The surprising success of SMÊs artists in Japan should translate into full-swing KOSDAQ 464.62 earnings growth in 2012. The companyÊs P/E (based on a 2012F EPS) is 7.2x, Market Cap (Wbn) 313 which seems extremely undervalued compared to the domestic peer groupÊs Shares Outstanding (mn) 17 average P/E of 15.4x. Thus, we maintain our Buy rating on SM with a target price of Avg Trading Volume (60D, '000) 597 Avg Trading Value (60D, Wbn) 11 W30,000. Dividend Yield (11F, %) - Free Float (%) 75.6 52-Week Low 11,400 52-Week High 22,500 Beta (12M, Daily Rate of Return) 0.7 Price Return Volatility (12M Daily,%,SD) 3.8 Foreign Ownership (%) 6.6 Major Shareholder(s): SM Lee (24.43%) KB Asset Mgmt. (11.24%) Partners Venture Capital and et. al (7.25%) Price Performance (%) 1M 6M 12M Absolute 10.5 24.8 38.5 Relative 12.3 32.3 44.6
§ Earnings & Valuation Metrics Share price 180 KOSDAQ OP EV/ Sales OP NP EPS EBITDA FCF ROE P/E P/B 160 FY Margin EBITDA (Wbn) (Wbn) (Wbn) (W) (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) (x) (x) 140 (%) (x) 120 12/09 62 9 15.0 4 278 12 11 7.3 16.2 1.2 3.7 100 12/10 86 25 29.5 22 1,342 28 23 29.1 12.6 3.3 8.2 80 12/11F 90 17 19.2 15 901 20 21 16.0 21.0 3.2 11.6 60 12/12F 145 52 35.9 44 2,637 54 43 36.0 7.2 2.2 3.3 40 12/13F 159 59 37.0 50 3,029 60 51 29.8 6.2 1.6 2.2 6/10 10/10 2/11 6/11 Note: Parent basis under K-GAAP, Source: Company data, Daewoo Securities Research estimates
Please read carefully important disclosures at the end of this report.
I. Investment summary ...... 3
II. Valuation ...... 4 1. Difficult to analyze entertainment companies ...... 4 2. Valuation premium anticipated...... 5
III. Success in Japan ...... 8
IV. Earnings outlook...... 16
2
June 24, 2011 SM Entertainment
I. Investment summary
Strong R&D and marketing capabilities
Internal training, content SM has proven its superior ability to find and nurture successful performing artists from development and which globally-competitive contents can be created and sold. Such a strong (so-called) R&D copyrights capability (finding, training and nurturing successful artists) helps the company significantly lessen the shock of failed albums or artists.
SM owns the copyrights to all its content. As platforms and networks increasingly diversify (smartphones, smart TVs, etc.), customer contact points are broadening. Moreover, the one source, multi-use environment (same content for different platforms) is spreading across the globe. This indicates that the companyÊs copyrighted contents are increasing in value.
Global marketing The success of SM Town concerts in Paris (June 2011) proved that K-pop is hugely popular through social media in Europe. Indeed, songs, music videos, and concert footage featuring SM artists are websites spreading around the world through social media websites such as YouTube, Facebook and Twitter. The global music market should offer numerous new opportunities to SM, especially considering the companyÊs content development capability has proven to be superior to that of its domestic rivals.
Korean music industryÊs PWC, a market research firm, forecasts the global share of the Korean music industry at only global market is forecast 1.6% in 2011, which means there is huge growth potential for Korean music firms. In at 1.6% in 2011 particular, Japan should provide a great opportunity to Korean music companies, as the countryÊs offline music market is 66 times larger that that of Korea (15 times larger in terms of total music market size).
SM is gaining market In 2010, SM delivered an earnings surprise thanks to strong 2009 sales in Japan (TVXQ sold share in Japan, the 942,000 CDs and 374,000 concert tickets). In 1H11, TVXQ sold 284,000 CDs, GirlÊs worldÊs third largest Generation sold 370,000 CDs (pre-order of 600,000 CDs), and pre-orders for SHINeeÊs June music market single reached 120,000 copies.
SM should sell at least 432,000 tickets for its SM Town concerts in Japan in 1H11, and SHINee plans to hold concerts in five Japanese cities beginning in July. We forecast SMÊs CD sales in Japan to reach 2.02mn copies (to be reflected in 2012 earnings), more than twice the figure in 2009.
Figure 1. Quarterly operating profit forecast and share price trend
(Wbn) Operating profit (L) Earnings to grow thanks to (W) 18 Share price (R) Japan business 24,000 (TVXQ, Girls' Generation, SHINee and Super Junior) in 2011~2012 12 TVXQ's success in Japan in 2009: 18,000 - Concerts: 374,126 tickets sold Earnings gap to - Singles: 624,913 CDs sold widen due to - Albums: 317,314 CDs sold 6 earthquake in Japan 12,000
0 6,000
-6 0 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12F
Source: Daewoo Securities Research
Daewoo Securities Research 3 June 24, 2011 SM Entertainment
II. Valuation
1. Difficult to analyze entertainment companies
Difficult to estimate It is more difficult to analyze entertainment companies and estimate their earnings than earnings; Large other companies. In Korea, entertainment companies are reluctant to announce precise shareholders and sales-related data due to the nature of the entertainment industry, which is sensitive to executives have sold rumors. As for SM, the percentage of overseas sales (including Japan) out of its total sales some of their stakes; rose to 42.4% in 2010, making it even more difficult to estimate earnings. The company Share price has been accounts for overseas sales two quarters after sales are generated (sales of CDs in Japan in range-bound 1Q will be recognized as overseas sales in 3Q).
SMÊs stock has risen on higher overseas royalty income and domestic digital music sales since 2009, while the companyÊs large shareholders and executives have sold some of their stakes. Since the remaining stock options that are exercisable from March 2012 are equivalent to only 294,000mn shares (out of the total of 526,000mn shares), overhang is unlikely to occur for the time being. The companyÊs stock has been range-bound around W20,000 since early this year, due to ① weaker quarterly earnings and ② the recent earthquake in Japan. We expect the stock to break thorough this range, as earnings should improve on the success of the companyÊs performers in Japan.
Figure 2. Quarterly overseas sales and operating profit trend and forecast
(Wbn) Overseas sales 18 Operating profit TVXQ's 2009 success in Japan - Domestic: Offline/digital music sales, management sales 12 - Overseas: Offline/digital music sales, management sales (Recognized as royalty income two quarters after they are generated)
6
0
-6 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11
Source: Daewoo Securities Research
Figure 3. Share price performance and sales by major shareholders Figure 4. Domestic institution's cumulative net buying
(W) Major shareholder Soo-man Lee ('000 shares) Domestic institutions' cumulative net buying (L) (W) 25,000 Share price sold 500k shares 4,000 Share price (R) 25,000 during extended tranding hours
20,000 Four executives sold 90,000 shares 3,000 20,000 during extended trading hours
15,000 2,000 15,000 Neowiz Internet (Bugs Music) Neowiz bought 2,479,203 shares Internet over the counter sold 10,000 1,000 10,000 Neowiz 430k shares Internet sold 5,000 799,203 Four executives 0 5,000 shares sold 60k shares
0 -1,000 0 1/09 7/09 1/10 7/10 1/11 1/10 4/10 7/10 10/10 1/11 4/11
Source: Daewoo Securities Research Source: Daewoo Securities Research Daewoo Securities Research 4 June 24, 2011 SM Entertainment
2. Valuation premium anticipated
SM just entered a new It is difficult to derive fair valuation multiples for entertainment companies as their valuations phase of growth depend on the success of performers as well as the emergence of new media devices and distribution channels. In valuing SM, we noted that the global entertainment giant, Disney, traded at two to three times the market average P/E during its growth phases – between 1986 and 1998 – thanks to 1) blockbuster films, such as The Lion King and Toy Story and 2) the popularity of its music, movies, and dramas in the U.S. During this period, DisneyÊs market capitalization soared by 23x. We believe SMÊs valuation may also rise as the company just entered a similar phase of growth.
We maintain our target price of W30,000, which we derived by applying a 2011F P/E of Maintain Buy with TP of 12.4x (the Korean music industry average) to a 2011F EPS in October 2010. The companyÊs W30,000 2011 earnings are expected to fall below our expectations, as Japanese performance schedules were delayed by three to four months due to the earthquake. However, we maintain our target price, as the surprising success of SMÊs artists in Japan should translate into full-swing earnings growth in 2012. The companyÊs P/E (based on a 2012F EPS) is 7.2x, which seems extremely undervalued compared to the domestic peer groupÊs average P/E of 15.4x. Thus, we maintain our Buy rating on SM with a target price of W30,000.
Figure 5. AvexÊs share price and P/E trend
(JPY) (x) 14,000 Avex's share price (L) 200 Earnings momentum: Operating profit doubled YoY Avex's P/E (R)
10,500 Major artists 150 (including BoA, Kumi Koda, Ayumi Hamasaki) entered the top 10 7,000 100
3,500 50
0 0 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Source: Thomson Reuters, Daewoo Securities Research
Figure 6. AvexÊs P/E and Japanese stock market P/E trend
(x) 200 Avex's P/E MSCI JP 12M-fwd P/E Major artists (including BoA, Kumi Koda, 150 Ayumi Hamasaki) entered the top 10
100 Earnings momentum: Operating profit doubled YoY
50
0 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Source: Thomson Reuters, Daewoo Securities Research
Daewoo Securities Research 5 June 24, 2011 SM Entertainment
Figure 7. DisneyÊs market cap trend
(US$bn) Acquisition of 100 Walt Disney's market cap Lion King 2 in 1998 media companies Toy Story 2 in 1999 including Fox in 2001 Acquisition of Marvel Ent. 80
60 Market cap increased by 23x from 1986 to 1998
40 Acquisition of Pixar in 2006 20 Acquisition of ESPN in 1996
0 80 83 86 89 92 95 98 01 04 07 10
Source: Thomson Reuters, Daewoo Securities Research
Figure 8. DisneyÊs share price and P/E trend
(US$) Lion King 2, Walt Disney's share price (L) (x) 50 Toy Story 2 Walt Disney's P/E (R) 160
Acquisition of ESPN 40 120 Toy Story 30 Lion King 80 20
40 10 Acquisition of media companies (including Fox) 0 0 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11
Source: Thomson Reuters, Daewoo Securities Research
Figure 9. DisneyÊs P/E and the U.S. stock marketÊs P/E trend
(x) Walt Disney's P/E 100 Lion King 2, Toy Story 2 MSCI US 12M-fwd P/E
Acquisition of ESPN 80 Toy Story
60 Lion King Acquisition of media companies (including Fox) 40
20
0 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11
Source: Thomson Reuters, Daewoo Securities Research
Daewoo Securities Research 6 June 24, 2011 SM Entertainment
Table 1. Global major music companiesÊ earnings and valuations (2010) (respective countryÊs currency, %, x) Company Sales OP NP Share price ROE EPS EPSG P/E OP margin Net margin SM 86.4 25.5 21.8 16,900 29.1 1,342 382.6 12.6 29.5 25.2 YG 44.8 10.3 9.8 - 48.0 2,615 131.8 - 23.1 21.5 JYP 21.7 5.9 0.9 - 34.2 333 TTB - 27.2 4.2 Loen 138.9 16.3 9.8 8,550 14.7 386 116.4 22.1 11.7 7.0 Neowiz Internet 44.3 5.6 11.4 8,750 25.2 679 38.0 12.9 12.6 25.8 KT Music 40.1 0.3 0.6 2,710 2.7 20 TTB 134.4 .6 1.5 Avex (JP) 112 11 5 1,187 17.5 124 444.0 9.6 10.2 4.8 A8 Digital Music (CN) 682 44 42 4.68 8.3 0.09 -59.1 52.0 6.5 6.1 Warner Music (US) 2,984 90 -143 5.17 -- -0.96 RR - 3.0 -4.8 Realnetworks (US) 402 -43 3 3.41 -- 0.05 0.0 68.2 -10.7 0.8 Korean average 25.6 15.9 17.0 14.4 Overseas average 12.9 43.3 2.2 1.7 Average 19.3 29.6 11.4 9.2 Note: Korean companiesÊ data on parent-based under K-GAAP; All units are in billions (Korea, Japan) and millions (the others) except for per share data Source: Thomson Reuters, Daewoo Securities Research
Table 2. Global major music companiesÊ earnings forecasts and valuations (2011F) (respective countryÊs currency, %, x) Company Sales OP NP Share price ROE EPS EPSG P/E OP margin Net margin SM 90.3 17.3 14.8 18,900 16.0 901 -32.9 21.0 19.2 16.5 Loen 152.9 27.9 19.4 8,300 25.0 765 98.1 10.8 18.2 12.7 Neowiz Internet 53.1 7.1 6.4 9,010 15.8 341 -49.8 26.4 13.3 12.0 KT Music 42.7 0.8 0.5 1,520 -- 16 -21.7 96.3 1.9 1.1 Avex (JP) 120 12 6 1,030 16.5 133 -- 7.7 -- -- A8 Digital Music (CN) 1,152 224 192 1.39 24.2 0.42 366.7 3.3 19.4 16.7 Warner Music (US) 2,746 74 -131 8.20 -- -0.93 RR -- 2.7 -4.8 Realnetworks (US) 361 -1 -17 3.49 -6.8 -0.12 TTR -- -0.4 -4.7 Korean average 18.9 38.6 15.6 12.1 Overseas average 11.3 5.5 7.2 2.4 Average 15.1 22.1 10.6 7.1 Note: Korean companiesÊ data on parent-based under K-GAAP; All units are in billions (Korea, Japan) and millions (the others) except for per share data Source: Thomson Reuters, Daewoo Securities Research
Table 3. Global major music companiesÊ earnings forecasts and valuations (2012F) (respective countryÊs currency, %, x) Company Sales OP NP Share price ROE EPS EPSG P/E OP margin Net margin SM 145.5 52.3 43.6 18,900 36.0 2,637 192.6 7.2 35.9 30.0 Loen 164.8 30.8 20.6 8,300 22.4 813 6.3 10.2 18.7 12.5 Neowiz Internet 145.5 52.3 43.6 9,010 25.4 431 26.4 20.9 14.1 13.6 KT Music 44.5 1.9 1.9 1,520 - 65 312.0 23.4 4.2 4.4 Avex (JP) 124 12 6 1,030 -- 143 7.7 7.2 9.8 4.8 A8 Digital Music (CN) 1,365 264 231 1.39 22.0 0.51 21.4 2.7 19.4 16.9 Warner Music (US) 2,777 85 -127 8.20 -- -0.87 RR -- 3.1 -4.6 Realnetworks (US) 379 16 1 3.49 -2.3 0.01 TTB 436.3 4.3 0.2 Korean average 27.9 15.4 27.4 21.9 Overseas average 9.9 5.0 9.1 4.4 Average 18.9 10.2 13.7 9.7 Note: Korean companiesÊ data on parent-based under K-GAAP; All units are in billions (Korea, Japan) and millions (the others) except for per share data Source: Thomson Reuters, Daewoo Securities Research
Daewoo Securities Research 7 June 24, 2011 SM Entertainment
III. Success in Japan
1H11 Performance has already exceeded that of 2009
It is taking less time for We compared the successes of BoA (Japanese debut album released in May 2001), TVXQ SMÊs artists to become (Japanese debut album released in November 2004), GirlsÊ Generation (Japanese debut popular enough to book album released in August 2010), and SHINee (Japanese debut album released in June 2011). a concert at a large arena In March 2007, BoA embarked on a concert tour (seating capacity of 2,700 people) in Japan, eight quarters after the launch of her first Japanese album. In May 2006, TVXQ held its first concert (seating capacity of 500 people), seven quarters after their Japanese debut. In May 2011, GirlsÊ Generation went on tour (seating capacity of 16,000 people), four quarters after their showcase in Japan. SHINee, who debuted in Japan with a single in June 2011, is scheduled to hold a concert in July 2011