Tanzania: Country situation assessment Working paper
Tanzania: Country situation assessment
December 2015 Lead author: Pius Yanda Contributing authors: Faustin Maganga Emma Liwenga Adolphine Kateka Abdallah Henku Edmund Mabhuye Nico Malik Cynthia Bavo
This report has been produced as part of a series of preliminary papers to guide the long-term research agenda of the Pathways to Resilience in Semi-arid Economies (PRISE) project. PRISE is a five-year, multi-country research project that generates new knowledge about how economic development in semi-arid regions can be made more equitable and resilient to climate change.
Front cover image:* Woman farmer in semi-arid lands in Tanzania © Cilia Schubert CC2.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.0/legalcode *The colour has been modified from the original image for print and web optimisation.
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Acknowledgements This report has been prepared by the Tanzania Pathways to Resilience in Semi-arid Economies (PRISE) team at the Centre for Climate Change Studies (CCCS), University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. The team wishes to acknowledge contributions from Professor Claude G. Mung’ong’o of the Institute of Resource Assessment (IRA) at the University of Dar es Salaam; Doctor Ladislaus Chang’a of the Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA); Professor Emmanuel Luoga of Sokoine University of Agriculture; and Doctor Abid Suleri of the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (Pakistan). We would also like to express our appreciation to the participants of the national and subnational stakeholder consultative workshops held separately in Dar es Salaam and Singida, Tanzania, for their contributions, which were used to further improve the report.
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4 Tanzania: Country situation assessment
Contents
Acknowledgements 3 Tables and figures 7 Acronyms 9 Executive summary 11 1. Introduction 13 1.1 Overview of PRISE 13 1.2 Context of the Country Situation Assessment 13 1.3 CSA methodology 13 2. Understanding the semi-arid lands of Tanzania 15 2.1 Tanzania’s arid and semi-arid areas 15 2.2 Geophysical characteristics 15 2.3 Rainfall patterns 16 2.4 Vegetation cover 16 3. Development context 17 3.1 Policy environment 17 3.2 Pastoralism and agro-pastoralism in Tanzania’s development perspective 21 3.3 Population and settlement patterns 22 3.4 Livelihood strategies 23 4. Climate and economic development in Tanzania’s ASALs 27 4.1 Climate situation in Tanzania 27 4.2 Rainfall and temperature characteristics in Tanzania 27 4.3 Past and current trends in climate 33 4.4 Socioeconomic impacts of climate change in Tanzania 38 5. Current adaptation knowledge, policies and strategies 39 5.1 Introduction 39 5.2 Adaptation knowledge, policies and strategies in agriculture 39 5.3 Adaptation knowledge, policies and strategies in livestock 40 5.4 Policies and strategies in wildlife conservation 41 5.5 Role of other drivers of economic growth in resilience-building in Tanzania 41 6. Conclusion and recommendations 42 6.1 Conclusion 42 6.2 Policy recommendations 42 References 43
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Tables and figures
Table 1 Timeline of major land management policies with impacts on ASALs 19 Table 2 Analysis of rainfall performance over the 1975-1984, 1985-1994 and 35 1995-2004 periods in the Tanzania Agro-Ecological Zones Table 3 Recent extreme climate events and their socioeconomic impact in semi- 38 arid areas of Tanzania
Figure 1 Map of the semi-arid lands of Tanzania 15 Figure 2 Mean annual rainfall map of Tanzania 16 Figure 3 Comparative analysis of current rainfall climatology (1971-2000) and 28 climatology of the recent past (1961-1991) in Mwanza and Tabora Figure 4 Comparative analysis of current rainfall climatology (1971-2000) and 29 climatology of the recent past (1961-1991) in Dodoma and Iringa Figure 5 Mean rainfall for 1981-2010, April and November 30 Figure 6 Mean number of rain days in January, April and November, based on 31 1971-2000 climatology Figure 7 Mean January and July temperatures based on 1971-2000 climatology 32 Figure 8 Trend in mean March-April-May (MAM) rainfall in Dodoma 33 Figure 9 Trend in mean October-November-December (OND) rainfall in Dodoma 34 Figure 10 Trend in mean annual rainfall in Dodoma 34 Figure 11 Trend in mean annual maximum temperatures in Dodoma 36 Figure 12 Trend in mean annual minimum temperatures in Dodoma 36 Figure 13 Trend in mean annual maximum temperatures in Tabora 37 Figure 14 Trend in mean annual minimum temperatures in Tabora 37
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8 Tanzania: Country situation assessment
Acronyms
ACRP Agriculture Climate Resilience Plan ASAL Arid and Semi-arid Land CCCS Centre for Climate Change Studies CPC Climate Prediction Centre CSA Country Situation Assessment DFID Department For International Development ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations GDP Gross Domestic Product IED Afrique Innovation, Environnement et Développement Afrique IRA Institute of Resource Assessment IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IDRC International Development Research Centre ILRI International Livestock Research Institute ITCZ Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone LTWG Landsat Technical Working Group LSE London School of Economics and Political Science MAFSC Ministry of Agriculture, Food Security and Cooperatives MAM March-April-May NAP National Action Programme NAPA National Adaptation Programme of Action NCEP National Centre for Environmental Prediction NCCS National Climate Change Strategy NEP National Environment Policy NLUPC National Land Use Planning Commission NSGRP National Strategy for Growth and Reduction of Poverty (commonly referred to as MKUKUTA) OND October-November-December ODI Overseas Development Institute PRISE Pathways to Resilience in Semi-arid Economies P/PET Precipitation to Potential Evapo-transpiration SDPI Sustainable Development Policy Institute TMA Tanzania Meteorological Agency UK United Kingdom UN United Nations UNCCD United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification UNDP United Nations Development Programme URT United Republic of Tanzania WMA Wildlife Management Area WRI World Resources Institute
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10 Tanzania: Country situation assessment
Executive summary
This Country Situation Assessment (CSA) report seeks to provide an initial analysis of the past and current climate in Tanzania and to identify solutions to the complex challenges of natural resource management, economic development, poverty alleviation and resilience-building in the context of climate change. It focuses on a few selected arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) in the country and pays particular attention to rainfall climatology for the 1960-1990 and 1971-2000 baseline periods. The report indicates a slight decrease in rainfall in the latter climatological period. It also indicates that, although there has been no significant trend in rainfall at the central ASAL stations, there has been a significant positive temperature trend in both maximum and minimum temperatures at the two stations observed. The trend in minimum temperatures has been more pronounced and much faster compared with the trend in maximum temperatures. This result is consistent with the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) findings and other observations in different parts of the globe. Nevertheless, it is important, and it will be more useful, to obtain more elaborate temperature and rainfall datasets from more ASALs of Tanzania to enable a detailed and thorough analysis. Initial results also indicate that ASALs of Tanzania are endowed with various development opportunities. These include climate-smart agriculture, small- scale mining, sustainable pastoralism and community-based wildlife resource management. The roles of different actors in facilitating these opportunities will be the subject matter of future stakeholder engagement workshops and research that will aim to provide policy-makers with practical guidance on inclusive, climate-resilient development and to support emerging good adaptation practices within the ASALs of Tanzania. The report also identifies several challenges that affect livelihood systems and sustainable natural resource management in ASALs, both climatic and non- climatic. Since climate change has implications for performance in several sectors, integrated approaches are necessary. These interventions need to consider the challenges and opportunities of various sectors (e.g. agriculture, livestock, water, energy, wildlife, forestry, mining, etc.) in ASALs in contributing to enhancing resilience.
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Nomad in arid areas. © Stuart Price, United Nations CC2.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/b y-nc-nd/2.0/
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1. Introduction
1.1 Overview of PRISE Each work package is led by a resources to economic growth and consortium partner and engages poverty alleviation. Furthermore, it Pathways to Resilience in Semi-arid researchers from across the five examines the political economy of Economies (PRISE) is a five-year, consortium members to ensure a key junctures in each development multi-country research project that blend of cross-disciplinary expertise pathway, to expose underlying aims at generating new knowledge and methodological insights. barriers and opportunities for action, on how economic development in which may apply at national, The consortium’s five member arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) subnational or local levels, including organisations are the Overseas can be made more equitable and the allocation of increasingly scarce Development Institute (ODI) and the more resilient to climate change and resources (e.g. water, land) between London School of Economics (LSE) can enhance the sustainable use different users and uses to ensure in the UK, the University of Dar es and management of these regions. inclusive climate-resilient Salam’s Centre for Climate Change PRISE aims to strengthen the development. commitment of decision-makers in Studies (CCCS) in Tanzania, the local and national governments, Sustainable Development Policy Specifically, the CSA highlights the businesses and trade bodies to Institute (SDPI) in Pakistan and following: Innovation, Environnement et rapid, inclusive and resilient • Natural resource management Développement Afrique (IED Afrique) development in ASALs. It does so policies, processes and in Senegal. The International by deepening their understanding of institutions and their relevance to Development Research Centre the strengths, threats and climate change adaptation and (IDRC) in Canada and the UK opportunities those semi-arid development; economies have in the context of Department for International Natural resource access and use climate change. Development (DFID) fund the project. • in the livelihoods and adaptation PRISE research adopts a ‘policy and 1.2 Context of the potential of women and other development-first approach’ to Country Situation marginalised groups; engaging decision-makers in Natural resource governance governments, businesses and trade Assessment • arrangements on the bodies. Rather than starting with This CSA acknowledges the vulnerability of these groups and complex climate change projections, importance of environmental options to strengthen their this research begins by identifying resources, political and institutional natural resource rights; the decisions people need to make mechanisms and socioeconomic now about investment choices and activities in building climate • Processes linking natural development options for ASALs. resilience in ASALs. It also resource depletion and Decision-makers and researchers acknowledges that the fragile natural degradation with impacts on decide jointly on the research resource base in ASALs makes the economic growth and poverty questions and study areas to ensure livelihoods and businesses that reduction, including valuation of the research corresponds to depend on them highly vulnerable to important ecosystem services. demand. This approach means mismanagement, overexploitation PRISE has the flexibility to support and climate change impacts. In 1.3 CSA methodology policy-makers and investors with many cases, economic development The CSA drew heavily on the quick-response research whenever has accelerated the degradation of existing literature and stakeholder the need arises, as well as the natural resources, with institutional consultation across levels on key capacity to lead longer-term and policy regimes unable to issues related to the ASALs of collaborative studies. effectively balance exploitation with Tanzania. Secondary data sources PRISE research targets ASALs conservation, and national included published books, reports, across six countries in Africa and development objectives with the journals, maps and papers. It also Asia: Burkina Faso, Kenya, Senegal, livelihood needs of the poor. These involved revisiting documentary Tanzania, Pakistan and Tajikistan. are challenges that climate change evidence from various relevant The research is organised around and increasing variability will authorities such as ministries, five work packages: climate risk exacerbate. municipal councils and government management; governance, This CSA identifies the existing offices at district level. The CSA also institutions and finance; markets; critical pathways from natural undertook a consultative process to natural capital; and human capital. understand various issues, including Tanzania: Country situation assessment 13
the challenges and opportunities in The specific issues discussed in the CSA further identified key problem ASALs at both national and assessment include natural resource areas where critically important subnational levels. It was further endowment and associated climate natural resources for economic informed by information obtained risks in ASALs; the nature of policies development and/or poverty from the scoping exercise the PRISE related to natural resource reduction coincided with high research team in Tanzania carried management; and the social vulnerability to climate change and out in the potential project sites. vulnerability of communities in other forms of natural resource ASALs in a changing climate. The degradation.
A farmer leads his cattle to drink water © Ollivier Girard for CIFOR
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14 Tanzania: Country situation assessment
2. Understanding the semi-arid lands of Tanzania
2.1 Tanzania’s arid and transpiration (P/PET) (as cited in classifications, these ASALs are Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, mainly located in Dodoma, Singida semi-arid areas 2005). Under this definition, ASALs and Shinyanga regions of central Various literatures acknowledge that are commonly characterised by a Tanzania; parts of Manyara region; defining ASALs in Tanzania poses a P/PET of between 0.05 and 0.65 the lower areas of Arusha and great deal of challenges. This is (ibid.). Kilimanjaro region in the northern part of Tanzania; parts of Iringa partly because of the complexity and Tanzania’s National Adaptation region; and Lindi and Mtwara environmental dynamics associated Programme of Action (NAPA) (URT, regions in the southern part of with the ASALs (Boesen et al., 1996; 2007) defines the country’s ASALs Tanzania (Schechambo et al., 1999; Mascarenhas, 1995). However, the according to climatic, agro- URT, 2007). Morris et al. (2001) also definition of arid and semi-arid areas ecological and physiographic characterise some parts of Mwanza is based primarily on their climatic characteristics. It maps them based and Tabora regions as being semi- conditions and agro-ecological on altitudinal features, precipitation arid (see Figure 1). characteristics. According to the patterns, growing seasons, average Food and Agriculture Organization of water-holding capacity of the soils 2.2 Geophysical the United Nations’ (FAO) definition, and other physical patterns and drylands (including arid, semi-arid processes. Accordingly, the semi- characteristics and dry sub-humid lands) are areas arid areas in Tanzania are defined as The ASALs in Tanzania are with a growing period of 1-179 days areas receiving less than 800mm of delineated in patches and therefore (as cited in Koohafkan and Stewart, rainfall (Schechambo et al., 1999). do not spread themselves across all 2008). On the other hand, the United parts of the country. Hence, each of Nations Convention to Combat According to the FAO (2012), the ASALs has unique Desertification (UNCCD) definition of Tanzania’s ASALs cover more than characteristics that define it. In drylands employs the ratio of annual 50%of the country. From both the precipitation to potential evapo- climatic and the agro-ecological
Figure 1: Map of the semi-arid lands of Tanzania
Source: URT (2010). Tanzania: Country situation assessment 15
Figure 2: Mean annual rainfall map of Tanzania
Source: Schechambo et al. (1999).
In terms of geophysical addition, there is rainfall variability in only 2-2.5 months (Morris et al., characteristics, these areas have an terms of amount and intensity as 2001; Shechambo et al., 1999). The altitude of between 1000 and well as prolonged droughts (Morris amount of rainfall in both areas is 1500m that consists of ‘gently et al., 2001) (see Figure 2). The unimodal, mostly falling from undulating plains, rocky hills, low central ASALs that extend over December to March. Potential scarps and rift valleys’ (Morris et al., Dodoma, Singida, Shinyanga and evapo-transpiration is over 2000 mm 2001, p.18). ASALs are also (less so) Mwanza and Tabora per year (Mutabazi et al., 2005). characterised by calcicsol, gypsisol regions follow the unimodal rainfall and leptosol soils, which are poor- pattern that prevails between 2.4 Vegetation cover fertility, sandy, salty, low-moisture December and March, covering a Different types of vegetation occupy and well-drained soils (ibid.). Despite crop-growing period of 70-90 days the semi-arid areas of Tanzania, variations in scale in the ASALs, (Morris et al., 2001; Schechambo et including grasslands, dense thickets, these soil characteristics influence al., 1999; URT, 2007). miombo woodlands, baobab communities in these areas to grow The south-eastern semi-arid areas, (Adansonia digitata), acacia and certain types of crops and keep which include parts of Morogoro, seasonally inundated grasslands livestock for their subsistence and Lindi and Mtwara regions, (Kisanga, 2002). Human occupation income. experience unpredictable but has extensively modified these types 2.3 Rainfall patterns adequate October-December (OND) of vegetation. As such, deforestation and March-May (MAM) rainfall and land degradation in these areas ASALs are characterised by a (Shechambo et al., 1999). However, are on the increase (Shechambo et relatively long, hot and dry season the ASALs of north-eastern Tanzania, al., 1999). Among the major causes followed by a relatively short rain specifically those in Arusha and of this are forest-clearing for season (FAO, 2000). They also Manyara regions (also popularly agricultural expansion (especially experience significant diurnal known as the Maasai Steppe), shifting cultivation), fire, human fluctuations in temperature, which experience short and unreliable settlements, charcoal-making and restrict the growth of plants. In rainfall, with onset dates covering mining.
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3. Development context
3.1 Policy environment most of these adaptations and conservation of the natural mitigation options. environment, the NEP also sets The Tanzanian policy framework crosscutting objectives to ensure Apart from the key national puts emphasis on the integrated and holistic approaches strategies and budgeting, the implementation of Vision 2025, to land use planning and government has also shown its which aims to transform the management; improved crop commitment to building community country’s economy from low- husbandry through the use of soil capacity to adapt to economic productivity agricultural activities to erosion control measures; increased shocks and to promoting high-productivity semi-industrialised soil fertility; and the expansion and environmental and sustainable land activities (manufacturing and small diversification of agricultural management through policies and and medium enterprise) by the year production. 2025. Vision 2025 further aims at strategies at the ministry, building a diversified and competitive department and agency level. National Action economy. To realise Vision 2025, Although most of these policies and Programme the government has formulated strategies are directly concerned Efforts to combat desertification in medium-term strategies at the with enhancing sustainable Tanzania were in place even before national level. These include the development and people’s wellbeing, independence. For example, the National Strategy for Growth and they do not focus directly on colonial government implemented Reduction of Poverty (commonly enhancing the livelihoods of various programmes to deal with referred to as MKUKUTA), whose communities in the ASALs. land degradation. The first initiative first phase ran from 2005 to 2010 This report therefore summarises was the Sukumaland resettlement and second phase from 2011 to only a couple of policies and scheme of 1948-1954, implemented 2015. Other strategies include the strategies, in particular those that in Mwanza and Shinyanga regions. Five-Year Development Plan and the are related directly to enhancing the This was followed by a destocking Property and Business Formalisation capacity of communities in drylands and resettlement scheme, Programme, commonly known as to adapt to social and economic implemented between 1945 and MKURABITA (URT, 2010, 2011b). shocks. 1960, covering the current These key national strategies focus National Environment administrative districts of Mbulu, on increasing and promoting Policy Babati, Hanang, Ngorongoro, community livelihoods by enhancing Monduli, Kiteto and Simanjiro. After their capabilities to adapt to The 1997 NEP earmarks a number independence, efforts were minimal. socioeconomic and environmental of problems and challenges It was in 1977, with the UNCCD, shocks. Other specific issues in associated with environmental and thereafter through the United these strategies include adaptation changes, some of which directly Nations Conference on Environment and mitigation options to reduce the adversely affect the livelihoods of and Development in 1992, that impacts of adverse shocks that communities living in drier parts of attempts were revived. These emanate from climate change and the country. These include but are international conferences identified other natural and human-induced not limited to land degradation, desertification as a major problem in disasters. These options include the which is decreasing the ability of need of immediate attention in order introduction of crop and livestock soils to produce quality products in to ensure the sustainability of varieties to suit adverse conditions; ASALs and elsewhere in the country. socioeconomic activities and provision of early warning system As a result, the NEP addresses environmental resources in ASALs. frameworks; skills development for crosscutting sectoral issues, in some Tanzania’s adoption and ratification farmers to adapt to new farming cases to enhance the capacity of of the UNCCD led to the practices; and awareness creation communities in drylands to adapt to development of the National Action on climate change and adaptation shocks, proposing strategies under Programme (NAP) in 2007 (URT, strategies. Other adaptation and key sectors to achieve these 2007). mitigation options include the objectives. These strategies relate to The objectives of the NAP are long- application of new technologies for biodiversity conservation, soil and term processes to ensure the crop production and livestock- water conservation, sustainable sustainable management of natural keeping and measures for water and forest management and climate resources in order to improve the soil conservation. Sectoral plans and change mitigation and adaptation. livelihoods of communities in semi- programmes already mainstream Apart from promoting the Tanzania: Country situation assessment 17
arid areas, which will result in National Adaptation Tanzania’s low national emissions multiplier outcomes to national Programme of Action profile, high vulnerability and development. In order to achieve dependence on natural resources these objectives, the NAP The 2007 NAPA describes for livelihoods mean emphasis is emphasises setting strategies to Tanzania’s climate change-related placed on adaptation. promote the sustainable use of vulnerabilities in various sectors. Aware that climate change will natural resources for the wellbeing of Most of the sectors identified are continue to pressurise Tanzanian communities and reduce natural important for socioeconomic farmers, MAFSC has taken the lead resource degradation in drylands. development. The programme by developing the Agriculture The NAP also emphasises the entails robust actions to curb Climate Resilience Plan (ACRP) effective engagement of key impacts associated with climate (2014-2019) so as to implement stakeholders for the sustainable change. The objectives of the NAPA strategic interventions for the management of natural resources. are to build community capacities, adaptation and mitigation of climate especially in marginal areas such as Implementation of the NAP has been change impacts in line with the drylands, to adapt to natural evident in various programmes, such NCCS. The ACRP presents a wide disasters, including climate change- as the Soil Conservation Programme range of adaptation options, related shocks. Other objectives of in Dodoma, carried out in the including improvement of agricultural the NAPA are to mainstream Kondoa Irangi highlands, and the land and water management; risk adaptation activities into sectoral Soil Conservation Programme in management; and strengthening policies, strategies, plans and Shinyanga region. These information and early warning programmes; to raise public programmes were implemented in systems (URT, 2014a). These will awareness on climate change order to combat desertification, help integrate resilience into impacts and adaptation options; and restore land productivity and agricultural policy decisions, to support climate-compatible and conserve natural resources for influence planning processes and sustainable livelihood and community livelihoods and the implement investments on the development activities across scales sustainability of natural resources. ground. and levels. Other programmes focused on Various sector ministries are sustainable land management and Other ministry, establishing mechanisms to the improvement of community department and agency mainstream environmental and livelihoods have included the Land policies and strategies climate mitigation and adaptation Administration and Management issues, using guidance from the NEP, Sectoral policies such as the Land Programme and the Soil Erosion the 2004 Environmental Policy, the Agricultural and Livestock Control and Agro-Forestry Management Act and the NCCS. Policy, the Livestock Policy, the Programme, implemented in Babati Environmental and climate change Energy Policy, the Water Policy, the and Lushoto districts, respectively. issues are also being integrated in Forest Policy, the Wildlife Policy, the Other important programmes the Medium-Term Expenditure Mineral Policy and the Natural Gas include the National Soil Framework, which budgets for Policy, to mention just a few, Conservation Programme and the different sectors. All this is a clear implicitly address the overriding National Agriculture Extension indication of political will and issue of enhancing community Programme, put in place by the commitment to ensuring sustainable livelihoods in ASALs by enhancing Ministry of Agriculture, Food Security development by enhancing the their capacities to adapt to shocks, and Cooperatives (MAFSC). A livelihoods of communities in the including those arising as a result of nationwide afforestation campaign, most vulnerable areas, such as climate change, and to attain launched in the 1980s, also those in ASALs. For this reason, it is sustainable development. Thus, the demonstrates the efforts of the possible to conclude that there are objectives set in each of these government and other key signs of hope from both the policies are in tandem with and stakeholders, including development government and non-state actors in cognisant of what is in all the other partners, to promote the sustainable terms of policies, strategies and sectoral policies, including the NEP. management of natural resources programmes; the institutional setup and improved community livelihoods. Tanzania’s National Climate Change and legal framework; and budget Furthermore, in 2006, the Strategy (NCCS) (2012) clearly sets (incentives) commitments to government formulated and out strategic interventions for climate enhance ASAL livelihoods and build implemented the National Strategy change adaptation measures and capacity to adapt to shocks, on Urgent Actions on Land greenhouse gas emission reductions including those related to climate Degradation and Water Catchments, (URT, 2012a). It outlines the change. with the purpose of restricting objectives for all sectors and cultivation on steep slopes in proposes strategic interventions in highland parts of the country. respective sectors and themes. 18 Tanzania: Country situation assessment
The historical perspective processes and land ownership ASALs. Table 1 provides a timeline reforms of colonial to post- of major land management policies In order to understand the dynamics independence governments. The and impacts on ASALs since 1923. of ASALs in Tanzania, it is important impacts of these processes through to revisit the political and policy time are still felt today, especially in
Table 1: Timeline of major land management policies with impacts on ASALs Year Land tenure policy Implications
Enactment of Land Ordinance of 1923: natives got customary land Institutionalisation of two parallel land tenure systems: one with 1923 tenure and non-natives a 1-99-year proof of occupancy and the other without and prone to land granted right of occupancy with title disputes and conflicts deed Native Authorities Ordinance of 1926 Traditional chiefs (land-allocating authorities) replaced by Native 1926 enforced Authorities, who managed land use using by-laws Freehold titles and the Government The Act converted colonial freehold into government leaseholds, 1963 Act of 1963/Land Act affecting mainly large-scale landowners 1964 Range Development and 1964/66 Management Act Cap 569 passed The Acts aimed at regulating grazing and water use in range areas 1966 Village Act passed 1967 Arusha Declaration The state owned land and all other means of production The Act enabled the government to seize any land and declare it 1973 Rural Farmland Act passed as a specific planning area for use as deemed appropriate by the government
The Act provided for a villagisation in which settlement and land use patterns were altered and resources redistributed among 1975 Ujamaa Villages Act enacted households; affected customary land tenure where the programme was implemented Villages became part of local government, districts and urban 1982 Local Government Act passed councils but issues of land tenure were not addressed 1983 Agricultural Policy formed Never implemented, for political reasons Presidential Commission formed to 1991 Comprehensive report published look into land tenure problem
1992 Land Tenure Act of 1992 passed Customary land tenure abolished in Ujamaa villages Provided security of tenure to smallholders and pastoralists; maximise land use efficiency; streamline land administration; 1995 National Land Policy facilitate implementation of development programmes; among others Decentralisation of land matters and provision of fair distribution of 1999 Village and Land Act passed land between pastoralists and agriculturalists; men’s and women’s rights, among others; village councillors became land managers 2001 Rural Development Strategy Improved rural livelihood quality by meeting basic needs The Act provides for different stages of dealing with land disputes: Courts (Land Dispute Settlement) Act 2002 the Village Land Council; the Ward Tribunal; the District Land and passed Housing Tribunal; and the High Court and the Court of Appeal 2006 National Livestock Policy Recognised pastoralism as a viable mode of production Grazing Land and Animal Feed 2010 As above Resources Act No. 13
Source: Adopted from various URT documents.
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The colonial period in Tanzania control of the British governor Agricultural Policy in 1983, which started in 1880s under the German (Fimbo, 1992). Under the emphasised village titling through rule, which lasted until the 1920s; postcolonial government, the the demarcation of villages the British took over until 1961, Freehold Titles (Conversion to boundaries with an introduction of when Tanzania attained its Government Leases) Act of 1963 99-year rights of occupancy. independence. Colonial systems had and the Government Leasehold Act However, the demarcation of village negative implications for some of 1969 converted all freehold lands boundaries increased the number of socioeconomic activities, which are into government leaseholds. This boundary disputes in a number of still visible in current policy implied that freehold titles were communities in Tanzania. As a result, frameworks. One of the important abolished. the policy was hardly implemented. features of the colonial legacy is that Some key policy reforms have had In the 1990s, it became clear land it abolished the role of traditional significant impacts on ASALs. mismanagement was leading to a pastoral systems and institutions by According to Tenga (1996), most large number of land disputes, creating borders that restricted the land disputes are related to land especially in ASALs (URT, 1995). As free movement of pastoralists rights suppressed through various a result, the government came up (Arhem, 1986). reforms related to policy and legal with various approaches to improve Pastoral development policy during frameworks. These include the the land rights system. In 1995, the the colonial period was influenced by Ujamaa land reform in 1974; land new National Land Policy was the widely held view that pastoralism liberalisation policies in the 1980s; published. However, this did not was leading to environmental and the conservation of rangeland address all problems related to land degradation (Brockington, 2004). (Shivji, 2004). rights. It did not change the status Thus, the British imposed a quo and the state remained the sole The Ujamaa villagisation scheme sedentary life on pastoral custodian of land (Shivji, 1994). (1974-1976), the Rural Lands Act of communities by creating permanent Importantly, it amended the Land 1973 and the Villages and Ujamaa rangelands under the Range Tenure Act of 1992, and at least Villages Act of 1975, along with Development and Management Act recognised land as a commodity Arusha Declaration of 1967, are of 1964. These rangelands, that can be exchanged and included identified as being responsible for administered by the Range a promise to protect individual rights many of the land disputes in ASALs Development Commission, were to land. However, recognising land and elsewhere. Specifically, the established with the view of as a commodity had serious villagisation programme led to land providing public services to pastoral negative implications for the ASALs, insecurity and people’s loss of communities. since it attracted commoditisation in control over resources on their lands the name of investors. Some The Range Development and (Havnevik, 2000; World Bank, 1992). investors fenced their lands, Management Act was followed by In implementing the villagisation blocking migratory routes, thus the 10-year long Maasai Range scheme, previous land use systems causing chaotic relations with Development and Management and property rights arrangements pastoral communities. Project, which commenced in 1970, were abolished, and traditional funded by the US Agency for property rights were considered In April 1999, the Land Act and the International Development and conducive to collective production. Village Land Act of 1999, which focused on costly technical inputs. In addition, the Rural Lands Act of constituted the Land Law Reforms, The project aimed to achieve the 1973 and the Villages and Ujamaa were passed and approved by the formation of ranching associations; Villages Act of 1975 were not Parliament. They became improved range management, accompanied by any elaborate operational in 2001. Whereas the animal health facilities, livestock property rules (URT, 1994). amended Land Tenure Act of 1992 quality and livestock marketing; and facilitated state administrative From the late 1980s, Tanzania increased water supply and control over people’s access to land, liberalised its political system and extension services. However, the the Land Act and Village Land Act economy. Some of these policy final results were mixed negative facilitated the right of citizens to adjustments were adopted through impacts on pastoral communities, access and own land (Alden Wily, the Structural Adjustment including the loss of property rights. 2000a). Programme and the National The contemporary Economic Recovery Programme, In principle, under Section 25 of the situation which were implemented from the Land Act and Village Land Act of mid-1980s on. However, the 1999, groups of people including Under the colonial administration’s economic and political reforms that those in ASALs have the right to Land Ordinance of 1923, all land in took place did not address the issue access and own land through Tanganyika (now Tanzania Mainland) of traditional land rights. Instead, the issuance of a Certificate of was declared public under the direct government launched the National Customary Right of Occupancy
20 Tanzania: Country situation assessment
“The Land Act and the (URT, 1999a). The Village Council the Grazing Land and Animal Feed Village Act of 1999 approves the right and has prime Resources Act of 2010 underscore remain weak in jurisdiction over all land declared the importance of pastoralism as a fundamental ways. village land. The Councils have the viable mode of production. The policy sole responsibility for overseeing aims to stimulate development in the Slow implementation decisions on the designation of land livestock industry and increase the of laws, particularly, within the village, using land use wellbeing of all national and rural village titling and plans as the land management tool. stakeholders involved in the livestock industry. drawing up village land According to the Land Act and use plans, is a major Village Land Act of 1999, land in 3.2 Pastoralism and hindrance. In addition, Tanzania is divided into general land, agro-pastoralism in Village Councils do not reserved land and village land. Village function as a judicial land is further sub-divided into three Tanzania’s development main categories: communal and perspective entity but rather act as public use land; land for individual or mediators.” family or group use under customary As it has been pointed out, Vision law; and land reserved for future 2025 sets objectives to foster the communal or individual use. Although socio-political economy. It aims to these subdivisions had positive transform Tanzania from a least- impacts on all people owning land, developed country to a middle- the people of the ASALs received the income country by modernising most benefits. agricultural production and promoting medium- and large-scale investments. However, the two Land Acts remain Vision 2025 has been adopted in weak in many fundamental ways. various macro and micro policy Slow implementation of laws, frameworks. The 2005 MKUKUTA, particularly village titling and drawing for example, aims to alleviate poverty up village land use plans, is a major through the improvement of all hindrance (Shivji, 1994). In addition, productive sectors, including Village Councils do not function as a pastoralism. The strategy recognises judicial entity, but rather act as the importance of the efficient use of mediators and assist different parties rangelands as well as improving in land disputes. This has caused production in the livestock sector in untold delays to justice in land order to empower pastoral disputes (ibid.). communities. To address the situation, the Similarly, the local government reform government proposed a new Courts process in Tanzania offers a valuable (Land Dispute Settlements) Act to the opportunity for pastoralists to Parliament in January 2002. The Act become more engaged in the delineates different bodies at the decision-making process. Likewise, village, district and state levels, each decentralisation provides the of which is to deal with land disputes potential for greater efficiency in the in conflict situations and litigations. delivery of services to local Before this Act, there was no known communities, including their legitimate state-based process for involvement in the bottom-up settling land disputes. Ward Tribunals planning process and implementation and traditional leaders used to be of activities relevant to their priorities mediators in land disputes. and plans. Under the new Other key sectoral policies that have government reforms, the local been particularly relevant to ASALs government also acts as an and their people include the intermediary between local Livestock Policy of 1983, which communities and national policy and aimed at stimulating livestock legal frameworks. development in the centralised Although within Vision 2025 and economy. This emphasised large- MKUKUTA Tanzanian policy and scale parastatal institutions for legal frameworks recognise livestock production chains. The pastoralism as a viable productive National Livestock Policy of 2006 and Tanzania: Country situation assessment 21
sector with significant contributions potential of ASALs, the Tanzanian The ASAL regions are also to make to national and rural income government has set up policy and characterised by out-migration. and livelihoods, several challenges legal frameworks to promote the Dodoma is one of the ASAL regions still need to be addressed. One area productivity of the livestock sector in with the highest levels of out- that requires a favourable policy line with Vision 2025. In 2006, it migration: out-migration to other environment relates to the free established the Department of areas is estimated to be higher movement of pastoral communities. Pastoral Systems Development and, compared with in-migration at a ratio Most policies emphasise sedentary as we have seen, published the of 205,200 out-migrants to 27,700 lifestyles, which may not be National Livestock Policy, and in in-migrants, with a net migration of - favourable to most nomadic and 2010 it enacted the Grazing Land 177,500 (URT, 2006). Most out- semi-nomadic livestock-keeping and Animal Feed Resources Act, in migrants from Dodoma seek systems. In addition, sedentary order to achieve Vision 2025 targets residence in neighbouring regions pastoralism may not be relevant to in the livestock sector (Sørensen, such as Iringa, Mbeya and Dar es the ASALs of Tanzania – as 2006). Salaam (ibid.). confirmed by research from other Various ethnicities and cultural ASALs in countries, such as 3.3 Population and diversity characterise populations in Botswana, Ethiopia and Kenya. settlement patterns the semi-arid zone. Major ethnic For instance, Leach and Mearns Population growth in most parts of groups include the Maasai, Gogo, (1996) indicate that pastoralism is ASAL regions is close to the national Fyomi, Barbaig and Sukuma, who more practical in free-range average. However, in Lindi and are traditionally pastoralists and/or livestock-keeping than in ranching Mtwara, the population growth rate agro-pastoralists. The Maasai and livestock-keeping systems. lies at 2% and 1.4%, the lowest in Barbaig are a major semi-nomadic Furthermore, if properly managed, the country. ASAL regions with the system in Tanzania (Brockington, under mobile lifestyles pastoralism highest population growth rates 2004). Other ethnic groups, can minimise disease transfer, avoid include Singida and Shinyanga, at traditionally agriculturalists, within the overexploitation of natural 3.7% to 4.6%. The high population this semi-arid zone include the pasture and water resources and growth rates in the two regions can Nyamwezi, Rangi, Iraqw, Taturu, reduce the risks of coming into be attributed to substantial rural to Sandawe, Nyiramba and Nyaturu. conflict with other land users. In urban migration. recognition of the vulnerability and
Local Tanzanian farmer. © Cilia Schubert
CC2.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.0/
22 Tanzania: Country situation assessment
3.4 Livelihood moving into the southern regions of risks, which include the fact that its Mbeya, Morogoro and Lindi, leaving broad success for rural producers is strategies their wives and families behind. This largely dependent on the Although Tanzania’s ASALs have increasing trend of out-migration has development of a yet very limited been marginalised for a long time, left a burden on women at the market. household level. their landscape is changing very According to Kempf (2007), the rapidly. They have actually proved to According to Dejene et al. (1997), establishment of responsible be vital in supporting animal-keeping, the increasing burden on women projects can mitigate the risks. For dryland agriculture, wildlife has increased their need to hire farm example, when growing jatropha, conservation, mining and human implements such as oxen ploughs. periods of three to four years without settlements. This sub-section ties However, the unpredictability of the yield have to be endured. down together key livelihood options rainfall season means women are Accordingly, during this time, it is that are relevant to the communities not the only ones using these; more advised that jatropha not be planted living in drier areas and also looks at and more people are now ploughing as a single crop: instead it should be how they have evolved over time, their land using oxen. It helps them intercropped with other annual crops. given their dynamic nature. reduce the amount of time they Kempf (2007) and the Rural Agriculture spend cultivating. Livelihood Development Company that is experimenting with this crop A few pertinent questions remain. Agriculture is the key economic in Dodoma believe that, if jatropha is How can we increase the resilience activity driving the lives of most of introduced as a side-profit- of the agro-ecological system in the communities living in the ASALs generating complementary crop ASALs? One promising pathway is of Tanzania (URT, 2005). However, rather than as an all-curing miracle the adoption of water harvesting given the climatic conditions of these tree, the experiment can work for technology. In support of this, areas, which are characterised by the rural poor. Most importantly, Mutabazi et al. (2005) note that low and unreliable rainfall, Kempf (2007) cautions that rainwater harvesting has the communities in the ASALs that expectations should be kept low and potential to alleviate poverty by practise agriculture are at very high realistic. risk of experiencing poor crop giving impressive returns to land and production. As a means of insuring labour even during average seasons. Livestock-keeping themselves against crop failure, This implies that interventions to improve productivity through The ASALs are home to over 70% of many of these communities, the livestock population in Tanzania especially those in the Sukuma land rainwater could result in tremendous economic benefits. (URT, 2006). This makes them a and in parts of the north-eastern major contributor to the livestock Singida and Mara regions, practise Water harvesting technology can industry in the country. Most of this agro-pastoral farming and mainly also complement interventions in livestock population is subjected to grow drought-tolerant crops such as market-focused watershed uncontrollable movements in search sorghum and millet (Morris et al., development, which focuses on of forage and water during dry 2001; Ruthenberg, 1980). However, promoting the food and income season. Hence, most of the they sometimes grow maize, cotton, security of farmers while conserving livestock population in ASALs is kept oilseeds and rice. the eco-hydrology and other natural in agro-pastoral and pastoral Further increasing the risk of crop systems in the watershed (Mutabazi systems, with very few kept on failure for communities in ASALs is et al., 2005). However, as Mutabazi commercial ranches. However, it is the increasing human and livestock et al. (2005) warn, one of the major argued that the livestock population population. According to Mwalyosi challenges of market-focused in the few commercial ranches is (1992) and Shem et al. (2005), the watershed development lies in given more emphasis in terms of high numbers of humans and balancing between using water for investment in comparison with the livestock in ASALs has led to over- improving human livelihood and livestock population kept in agro- cultivation of croplands and using it for ecological services. pastoral and pastoral systems (ibid.). overgrazing of rangelands. A Another promising pathway to Poor animal husbandry practices in consequence of this has been soil resilience is the adoption of pastoral and agro-pastoral systems erosion and the exhaustion of a land commercial crops that can attract little support from the that already has a low fertility status. withstand the climatic conditions of government. Despite these This has further affected already the ASALs. In Tanzania, one such challenges, the livestock population dwindling crop yields (Collinson, crop has been jatropha, which is in ASALs provides pastoral 1972; Kisanga, 2002; Rounce, believed to have enormous potential communities with a means of 1949). In response to this, agro- in terms of changing the face of livelihood. It also provides Tanzania pastoralists, mostly men, from the agriculture in the ASALs. However, with most of its meat, milk products semi-arid areas of Sukumaland are the crop does not come without and other indirect benefits, which Tanzania: Country situation assessment 23
can be exported and thus contribute caused soil erosion problems. “The land on which to the country’s gross domestic Additionally, the increased movement product (GDP). of livestock to places that in the past livestock keeping is had few livestock has in most cases practised is often According to the 2005 Economic resulted in land use conflicts (URT, Survey (URT, 2006), the livestock treated as vacant land 1995). industry in Tanzania contributes 4.5% that can be put to to the country’s GDP. However, the Solutions advocated in the 2006 better use with more specific contribution of the livestock National Livestock Policy, such as the permanent structures. population in ASALs is not known. In use of commercial ranches, have Hence problems relation to this, Schechambo et al. been tried as a panacea for the (1999) and Shivji (1994) observe uncontrolled mobility of pastoralists. related to land there is no proper record of the value However, in most cases such grabbing and of goods from pastoral production, attempts have failed miserably insecurity of tenure which could assist in making because they have not considered have become so grave informed choices on investment and the local Tanzanian context but rather that there are cases of policy in ASALs. have paid more attention to other contexts that are not comparable outright land grabbing For instance, the land on which with what is happening locally. of the perceived vacant livestock-keeping is practised is often Methods, philosophies and treated as vacant land that can be lands.” management tools used in put to better use with more developing nations such as New permanent structures (Brockington, Zealand and Canada have fallen 2004; Mwalyosi, 1992). Hence, short when applied to the East problems related to land grabbing African pastoralist context (Behnke and insecurity of tenure have become and Scoones, 1993; Homewood and so grave that there are cases of Rodgers, 1991). outright land-grabbing of the perceived vacant lands to build Additionally, the past few years have private ranches (Shivji, 2004). seen pastoral communities delve into farming, getting paying jobs and Pastoralists in Tanzania have also keeping fewer animals as a means of fallen victim to the establishment of diversifying the risk of drought. Some national parks and game reserves studies have actually established that that have often left them excluded pastoralists who take up agriculture (Brockington, 2004; Homewood and as a means of insuring themselves Rodgers, 1991; Shem et al., 2005; against droughts are more likely to Sørensen, 2006). This can be maintain their livelihoods than those attributed partly to the lack of who keep livestock only (Thornton et understanding of livestock movement al., 2008). and that of pastoralists to territories that are outside their traditional Wildlife conservation and grazing areas (Galaty, 1993). tourism Consequently, it has become quite acceptable, among policy-makers, to Wildlife conservation requires larger label pastoralism as a system that portion of lands. These are meant for destroys the environment. However, national parks and wildlife sanctuaries. according to Benjaminsen et al. This in turn has created pressure that (2009), arguments that blame is increasingly forcing pastoralists off pastoralists for environmental their lands (Sendalo, 2009; Shem et degradation and desertification do al., 2005). Under the Wildlife not have any scientific basis. Conservation Act of 2009, the minister for wildlife conservation can Poorly informed policies and the make decisions on land use, exclusion of pastoralists have led to especially in terms of the declaration pastoralist communities becoming of Game Controlled Areas, without impoverished (Kipuri and Sørensen, clear recourse to affected 2008). Further complicating the communities and/or villages. situation is the increasing livestock population, which has led to Establishing national parks or game overgrazing and has ultimately reserves on traditional pastoral lands 24 Tanzania: Country situation assessment
Maasai women in Engaresero village.
© Caroline Irby/Oxfam
CC2.0 https://creativecommons.org/license s/by-nc-nd/2.0/
has always excluded pastoralists on- and off-farm earnings depend as The ASALs of Tanzania have a good from grazing lands, while expanding well on other rural natural resources, environment for beekeeping, partly cultivation and wildlife reserves or including forestry products, fisheries, because of the presence of many parks, reduces rangeland resources etc. (URT, 1998; 2005). Monela et al. plants for nectar and pollen and increases pressure on the (2000) studied communities living production. Although demand for remaining smaller piece of rangeland. within or adjacent to Miombo honey as food and a medicinal Although most of the national parks woodlands in Dodoma and product is steadily increasing, there and game reserves were established Morogoro regions and found forest is no well-established internal market before independence, the current products contributed about 50-70% for honey and beeswax (Mwakatobe move of creating Wildlife to annual household incomes. Direct and Mlingwa, 2006). However, if Management Areas (WMAs) is forest products are firewood, wild properly packaged, there are causing more conflict, induced by fruits and herbal medicines; non- potential unexploited internal and competition for grazing land and timber forest products that are often external markets for honey in large water between livestock and wildlife, ignored in the literature include the towns, hotels, airlines and tourist such as in Serengeti National Park. beekeeping products of honey and centres (ibid.). Competition between livestock and beeswax (Mwakatobe and Mlingwa, wildlife is also a major concern 2006). It is estimated that Tanzania Minerals and mining among pastoralists in many has about 9.2 million honeybee activities protected areas of Tanzania (Talbot colonies, and the production Some semi-arid areas, including and Olindo, 1990). potential of bee products is about parts of Shinyanga and Geita 138,000 tons of honey and 9,200 regions, are endowed with various Beekeeping and tons of beeswax per annum (URT, exploitation of non-timber forms of minerals. In Tanzania, 1998). These products are mining has become an important forest resources increasingly becoming tradable sector contributing to rural and goods and sources of household Despite the importance of national economic growth, income. However, utilisation of wood agriculture, particularly in rural areas, supported by new mining legislation.. and non-timber forest products has some 40% of rural household The drastic change in the mining in some instances resulted in natural income is derived from sources sector is visible through the increase resource degradation. outside household on-farm in mineral production and earnings production activities. However, both since 2001(Curtis and Lissu, 2008; Tanzania: Country situation assessment 25
Kabwe, 2012). According to the amended Mining Act of 2010 Major policy reviews are therefore Central Bank of Tanzania, earnings address these issues, but progress needed, especially in the promotion from gold exports in 2011 had risen in the aforementioned areas remains of parliamentary and public scrutiny by 47%. Despite this promising nonetheless tenuous. The new Act of existing and upcoming mining economic trend, the mining sector imposes a mining royalty of 5% of contracts so as to foster has the least impact on the living gross value in the case of rough transparency in the mining industry, standards and general wellbeing of gemstones and uranium; 4% of and in the strengthening of the country and the people of gross value in the case of gold and governance at the subnational level Tanzania, especially local metallic minerals; and 3% of gross so as to enhance mining’s communities living adjacent to the value for other minerals. One of the contribution. This will be particularly mines (Kabwe, 2012; MacDonald ongoing debates among industry useful in ensuring better local use of and Roe, 2007). players is whether the increases in revenues raised and promoting royalty rates will actually confer stronger collaboration between the There are several caveats that some tangible benefits to Tanzanian government and the private sector in analysts believe undermine mining nationals. One of the architects of enhancing benefits for communities. from benefiting the country and its the 1998 Mining Act said, for It will also help in strengthening local people. First, in its more modern example: economic linkages and responding forms, mining is a highly capital- to issues surrounding artisanal and intensive activity: it cannot make a To the extent that the country will small-scale mining. massive contribution to direct local receive more revenues, yes there is employment levels. Second, its a benefit to Tanzanian nationals contribution to a country’s gross from the royalty increase. However, national income is likely to be even mining generates local spinoffs that smaller because of the outflows of are even more important than mining company dividends (e.g. government revenue: school Curtis and Lissu, 2008; Kabwe, projects, water, roads infrastructure 2012). and power. More can be done in these areas, but the little that is Are there any prospects for reforms happening has definitively had an in the mining sector to benefit impact on the communities around communities in ASALs? The new mines. Mineral Policy of 2009 and the
26 Tanzania: Country situation assessment
4. Climate and economic development in Tanzania’s ASALs
4.1 Climate situation in The ITCZ migrates north and south 4.2 Rainfall and following the movement of the sun, Tanzania with a time lag of one month (Ogallo, temperature Climatologically, Tanzania is located 1982). From December to February, characteristics in in the tropics. Its climatic condition is the ITCZ lies between 10 and 150 S. Tanzania driven entirely by tropical processes. During that time, the prevailing However, the range in altitude and winds over the East African Rainfall patterns countries are the north-east associated climatic impacts results Rainfall patterns in Tanzania and the monsoon, changing their direction to in significant climate gradients entire of the East African region are north-west after crossing the across the country. In addition, in principal characterised by two Equator (Amaglo, 1997; Ogallo, proximity to major lakes such as main rainy seasons – the long rains 1994). These winds are relatively dry Lakes Tanganyika and Victoria, on (Masika) and the short rains (Vuli) – as a result of their continental origin the one hand, and the Indian Ocean, which are associated with the and their long track over the dry land on the other, provides a potential southward and northwards of north-eastern Africa and Arabia. source of moisture to surrounding movement of the ITCZ. The Masika As a result, the northern parts of the areas and enhances meso-scale long rains begin in mid-March and country experience relatively dry weather systems. end at the end of May. The Vuli short weather. The major climate trends in Tanzania rains begin in the middle of October and in most parts of the East African From March to May, the ITCZ and continue to early December. region are the Inter-Tropical migrates to Tanzania from the south. Most of the rainfall is convective in Convergence Zone (ITCZ), monsoon Owing to large-scale convergence nature and distinctly organised. and instability of the prevailing air circulation, the El Niño Southern The northern parts of Tanzania, masses originating from the Indian Oscillation (ENSO), tropical cyclones, including areas around the Lake Ocean, a significant amount of easterly waves, the Congo air mass Victoria Basin, experience a bimodal rainfall, mostly of a convectional type, and the Mascarine, St Elena and rainfall regime, whereby the first occurs. These rains are known as Siberian high pressure cells. maximum rainfall occurs in the MAM long rains (Mistry and Conway, Complex topographical features, period and the second in the OND 2003; Zorita and Tilya, 2002). From including high mountains such as Mt period. Central, southern and May to September the prevailing Kilimanjaro and proximity to large western areas of Tanzania have a winds are the south-east monsoons, water bodies, mean some areas are prolonged unimodal rainfall regime changing their direction to south- characterised by distinct meso-scale starting from November and west after crossing the Equator circulation features, which have a continuing to the end of April. pronounced influence on the spatial (Glover et al., 1954; Jury et al., distribution of rainfall in the country. 2002; Nieuwolt, 1974). They are Figures 3 and 4 present a relatively dry and cold as they comparative analysis of rainfall Tele-connections between rainfall originate from the anti-cyclone area climatology for selected anomalies in the region and (Mascarene high pressure cells) meteorological stations for two anomalies in the general circulation around Mascarene Island in the baseline periods, 1961-1990 and worldwide play a significant role in Antarctic, losing much of their 1971-2000. The analysis indicates a modifying the spatial and temporal moisture along the mountains in slight decline in rainfall in the period distribution of rainfall in Tanzania. Madagascar. From September to 1971-2000 climatology as The tele-connected systems include, December, the ITCZ moves from the compared with the 1961-1990 among others, ENSO, sea surface north to the south relatively faster climatology for most of the stations. temperatures and solar activity. than the vice versa movement from Figure 5 presents a spatial Several authors have discussed the the south to north. During this period, distribution of mean monthly rainfall relationships among many of these the northern part of the country and for the months of April and regional systems and atmospheric the Indian coast receive the Vuli November, respectively, during the circulations (Chang’a et al., 2010; short rains. period. Figure 6 presents a spatial Kijazi and Reason, 2005, 2009; distribution of the mean number of Ogallo, 1989; Ogallo et al., 1988). rain days in January, April and
Tanzania: Country situation assessment 27
November, respectively, during the by the migration pattern of the ITCZ, Arid and semi-arid areas in Tanzania period. as during this time the ITCZ is more saw a mean number of rain days of profound and organised over the between 10 and 20. In November, During the month of January, the southern parts of Tanzania. In April, the higher number of rain days was mean number of rain days was the mean number of rain days was concentrated over the western part significantly higher over the central relatively higher (20-22 days) over of the Lake Victoria Basin. These and southern parts of Tanzania, some parts of the coastal areas in areas experienced on average above where on average the areas saw an Tanzania and around the Lake 22 rain days in November (Figure 6). average of above 22 rain days Victoria Basin (Figure 6). (Figure 6). This was mainly caused
Figure 3: Comparative analysis of current rainfall climatology (1971-2000) and climatology of the recent past (1961- 1991) in Mwanza and Tabora
Mean Monthly rainfall for Mwanza
200
180
160
140
120
100
Rainfall (mm) Rainfall 80
60
40
20
0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Month
1961-1990 1971-2000
Mean monthly rainfall for Tabora
220
200
180
160
140
120
100 Rainfall (mm) Rainfall 80
60
40
20
0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month
1961-1990 1971-2000
Source: Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA) data analysis (2014).
28 Tanzania: Country situation assessment
Figure 4: Comparative analysis of current rainfall climatology (1971-2000) and climatology of the recent past (1961- 1991) in Dodoma and Iringa
Source: TMA data analysis (2014).
Tanzania: Country situation assessment 29
Figure 5: Mean rainfall for 1981-2010, April and November
April November
Source: TMA (2014). Based on the Climate Anomaly Monitoring System at the Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) at the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).
30 Tanzania: Country situation assessment
Figure 6: Mean number of rain days in January, April and November, based on 1971-2000 climatology
January April
November
Source: TMA data analysis (2014).
Tanzania: Country situation assessment 31
Temperature trends Figure 7 presents the spatial maximum temperature ranged from distribution of mean monthly 27.7°C to 30.9°C with a mean of The climate of Tanzania is typically temperatures for January (the 29.6°C, while the mean annual equatorial, with high temperatures warmest month) and July (the minimum temperature ranged from year round with little seasonal coldest month). January is 15.9°C to 18.0°C with a mean of variation, especially in areas along characterised by higher 17°C for the period under review. In the Indian Ocean coast. Large temperatures as compared with Dodoma, the mean annual variations in temperature are caused other areas in the region. In most of maximum temperature ranged from by altitude. The higher you get the the coastal areas, mean monthly 28°C to 29.8°C with a mean of cooler it becomes. The islands off temperatures in January are above 29.0°C, while the mean annual the coast, such as Zanzibar, have a 25°C (Figure 7). minimum temperature ranged from tropical climate. Cooling sea breezes 16.0°C to 18.0°C with a mean of The summary statistics of relieve the hot temperatures. 17.1°C. Temperatures vary more in the temperature and rainfall for Tabora highlands, with hot days and chilly and Dodoma in Tanzania show that, nights. in Tabora, the mean annual
Figure 7: Mean January and July temperatures based on 1971-2000 climatology
January July
Source: TMA data analysis (2014).
32 Tanzania: Country situation assessment
4.3 Past and current rainfall patterns, a decrease in the OND rainfall ranged from 7.7 mm to amount of rainfall and an increase in 526.9 mm, with a mean of 153.4 trends in climate temperatures in most parts of ASAL mm. regions. Detailed trend analysis Analysis of recent climatological data Annual rainfall in Dodoma ranged results for temperature, rainfall and has revealed a significant positive from 283 mm to 863.7 mm, with a relative humidity are presented temperature trend and a slight mean of 572 mm. These results below. negative rainfall trend in most indicate a high intra-seasonal and meteorological stations in the region Rainfall trends inter-annual variability of rainfall in (Shongwe et al., 2011) including in Dodoma. Trend analysis results Tanzania (Matari et al., 2008; In most parts of Tanzania, rainfall indicate no significant discernible Mwandosya et al., 1998). A typical has been characterised by stronger linear trend in MAM, OND and example is shown in Figures 3-7 for inter-annual variability (Chang’a et al., annual rainfall in Dodoma. The slight Zanzibar, Arusha and Mbeya 2010; Kijazi and Reason, 2009; positive trends Figures 8 through 10 stations. Late onset of rainfall and Zorita and Tilya, 2002). Figures 8 depict are not statistically significant, early cessation are becoming through 10 present a time series of underlining the nature of uncertainty common in most parts of Tanzania. MAM, OND and annual rainfall at associated with rainfall patterns. Observational evidence from local Dodoma in Tanzania. MAM rainfall communities in most parts of ranged from 53.5 mm to 365.4 mm, Tanzania suggest seasonal shifts in with a mean of 168.3 mm, while
Figure 8: Trend in mean March-April-May (MAM) rainfall in Dodoma
Trend in Mean March − May (MAM) rainfall in Dodoma − Tanzania
350 Rainfall = 0.4257t + 157.62 pvalue = 0.5673
300
250
200 Mean MAM Rainfall (mm) 150
100
50
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
Source: TMA data analysis (2014).
Tanzania: Country situation assessment 33
Figure 9: Trend in mean October-November-December (OND) rainfall in Dodoma
Trend in Mean October − December (OND) rainfall in Dodoma − Tanzania
500 Rainfall = 0.907t + 130.7 pvalue = 0.382
400
300
200 Mean OND Rainfall (mm)
100
0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
Source: TMA data analysis (2014).
Figure 10: Trend in mean annual rainfall in Dodoma
Trend in Mean Annual rainfall in Dodoma − Tanzania
Rainfall = 0.4257t + 157.62 pvalue = 0.5673
600
550
500 Mean Annual Rainfall (mm) Mean Annual 450
400
350
300
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
Source: TMA data analysis (2014).
34 Tanzania: Country situation assessment
Generally, as Table 2 illustrates, Manyara region, which is mainly regions, which have traditionally there have been shifts in rainfall bordered by the unimodal ASAL been unimodal, are gradually patterns in Tanzania. This conclusion regions of Dodoma and Singida as developing into bimodality is based on the results of an analysis well as the transition region of tendencies. In general, however, all of rainfall performance over the past Morogoro, has largely converted ASAL zones reflect negative sloping three decades (1975-1984, 1985- from a bimodal tendency to a trends implying falling rainfall 1994 and 1995-2004) in the unimodality (Ntika, 2007). availability overtime (see Table 2). In Tanzania Agro-Ecological Zones. view of this, there is a need to adapt Also, Morogoro and Kigoma regions, to these projected rainfall shortages, As Table 2 illustrates, rainfall shifts in which have been either wholly or possibly by adopting water- some regions from a unimodality to partially conceptualised with conserving technologies and a bimodality rainfall regime and vice transition features, are increasingly climate-smart agriculture. versa have been largely attributed to transforming to unimodal tendencies. climate change. For example, Conversely, Mbeya and Shinyanga
Table 2: Analysis of rainfall performance over the 1975-1984, 1985-1994 and 1995-2004 periods in the Tanzania Agro-Ecological Zones AEZ Study area Estimated model AEZ-I Coastal y = -7.52x2 + 26.367x + 92.463 AEZ-II Arid land– Dodoma: y = -0.8475x2 + 7.235x + 37.722 AEZ-III Semi-arid lands – Shinyanga y = -37.203x2 + 183.09x - 145.89 AEZ-IV Plateau – Mbeya y = -7.268x2 + 33.288x + 48.086 AEZ-V South-Western Highlands– Mbeya y = -7.268x2 + 33.288x + 48.086 AEZ-VI Northern Highlands – Kilimanjaro y = 1.4033x2 - 10.47x + 87.756 AEZ-VII Alluvial – Morogoro y = 4.2733x2 - 18.018x + 86.64 Source: Ntika (2007).
Temperature trends Dodoma, presented in Figures 11 temperature trend is steeper and and 12, respectively, reveal a more pronounced in the mean Time series analysis of both mean significant (Pvalue < 0.05) increasing annual minimum temperatures annual maximum and minimum trend in minimum temperatures (Figures 12 and 14) as compared temperatures has revealed a (Figure 12). with the mean annual maximum significant increase in temperature temperatures (Figures 11 and 13). Figures 13 and 14 present the trends in a large part of Tanzania This is a typical observation across temperature trend for Tabora. A (Schreck and Semazzi, 2003; the region and globally (IPCC, 2013; significant increasing temperature Shongwe et al., 2011). Trend URT, 2007). analysis for mean annual maximum trend in both maximum and and minimum temperatures for minimum temperatures is depicted. Generally, the increase in the
Tanzania: Country situation assessment 35
Figure 11: Trend in mean annual maximum temperatures in Dodoma
Trend in mean annual maximum temperature in Dodoma
Tmax = 0.006513t + 28.88 29.6 pvalue = 0.128
29.2
28.8
Mean Annual Maximum Temperature ( C ) Temperature Maximum Mean Annual 28.4
28.0
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Year
Source: TMA data analysis (2014).
Figure 12: Trend in mean annual minimum temperatures in Dodoma
Trend in mean annual minimum temperature in Dodoma 18.0 Tmax = 0.019686t + 16.63 pvalue = 0.0000018 17.6
17.2
16.8 Mean Annual Minimum Temperature ( C ) Temperature Minimum Mean Annual 16.4
16.0
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Year
Source: TMA data analysis (2014).
36 Tanzania: Country situation assessment
Figure 13: Trend in mean annual maximum temperatures in Tabora
Trend in mean annual maximum temperature in Tabora
30.8 Tmax = 0.031367t + 28.81
30.4 pvalue = 0.00000
30.0
29.6
29.2
28.8
Mean Annual Maximum Temperature ( C ) Temperature Maximum Mean Annual 28.4
28.0
27.6
1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012
Year
Source: TMA data analysis (2014).
Figure 14: Trend in mean annual minimum temperatures in Tabora
Trend in mean annual minimum temperature in Tabora 18.0 Tmax = 0.029787t + 16.26 pvalue = 0.00000 17.6
17.2
16.8
16.4 Mean Annual Minimum Temperature ( C ) Temperature Minimum Mean Annual
16.0
1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012
Year
Source: TMA data analysis (2014).
Tanzania: Country situation assessment 37
4.4 Socioeconomic of the ASAL region, and they are of property and infrastructure (Table expected to intensify over the 3). impacts of climate coming decades, with negative As a result, changing climate is consequences for, among others, change in Tanzania expected to have multiple effects. food production and water scarcity. Weather and climate account for Interactions between climate Droughts and floods have also over 70% of all natural disasters in change-related trends and those of seriously affected other vulnerable the Eastern Africa region. Extreme other drivers are becoming sectors such as forestry, fisheries, weather events, such as drought increasingly significant. Natural energy, health, tourism and services. and floods, have had significant resource degradation, for instance, impacts on both the people and the Over the past decade, several increases the vulnerability of economy of the ASALs. The sectors incidences of extreme climate events socioeconomic activities to changes that experience immediate impacts have occurred in various areas of in rainfall, which has a multiplier are agriculture, health, transport and semi-arid Tanzania, causing effects on water availability (Fabricius water resources, among others. substantial and severe et al., 2008). Severe droughts and floods have socioeconomic impacts including increasingly been felt in many parts loss of human lives and destruction
Table 3: Recent extreme climate events and their socioeconomic impact in semi-arid areas of Tanzania Event Affected areas Year Impacts Reference Semi-arid regions of Tanzania, i.e. Dodoma, Death of animals, effects 2003/2005/20 Drought Arusha, some parts of on agriculture, energy and Shayo (2013) 09 Iringa, Kilimanjaro, Manyara, business Shinyanga and Singida Morogoro (Kilosa) and Devastation to humans, Floods Dodoma (Mpwapwa and 2009/2010 property and infrastructure Kongwa) Loss of lives (23 people left dead), loss of property Floods Dar es Salaam 2011 Shingirirai (2013) and destruction of various infrastructure Loss of lives (40 people left dead), loss of property Floods Dar es salaam 2012 Shayo (2013) and destruction of various infrastructure
Source: author
38 Tanzania: Country situation assessment
5. Current adaptation knowledge, policies and strategies
Maasai women in Engaresero village.
© Caroline Irby/Oxfam
CC2.0 https://creativecommon s.org/licenses/by-nc- nd/2.0/
5.1 Introduction worthy of further analysis through Other interventions should also be research and stakeholder directed towards agro-ecological This report has reviewed Tanzania’s engagement in order to inform approaches for addressing poor key development plans and the role policy- and decision-making production and food insecurity in of ASALs in these. It has also shown processes for inclusive development ASALs (Fabricius et al., 2008; Reij how development plans are affected pathways. and Steeds, 2003). by climate change risks in the short-, medium- and long-term contexts 5.2 Adaptation Fabricius et al. (2008) further indicate and has analysed how communities knowledge, policies and that, under semi-arid conditions with in ASALs are dependent on sectors a variable rainfall regime and high that are sensitive to climate strategies in agriculture and growing human population densities, successful interventions conditions, such as agriculture, Agriculture remains an important will include effective adoption of fisheries, forestry and tourism. sector for communities in ASALs. initially inappropriate external Climatic trends in the form of rainfall However, climate change is knowledge in soil and water and temperature patterns and their expected to trigger unprecedented conservation, including labour- implications for socioeconomic effects on the growing conditions for intensive terrace farming and development have been discussed. crops and availability of water integrated livestock production; and Finally, the report attempts to resources (Fabricius et al., 2008). adoption of indigenous self-help identify existing adaptation practices Policy interventions should thus institutions to harness labour and and knowledge that can form a focus on the development of capital. Others will include benchmark for identifying adaptation strategies for the sustainable enhancing access to efficient strategies and that are therefore management of land resources. Tanzania: Country situation assessment 39
produce markets in urban centres plant pests and diseases, especially herds (Jama and Zeila, 2005; Nori et and abroad for both educated and in Dodoma, Shinyanga and Mwanza al., 2008; Rowlinson et al., 2008), is unskilled labour; and security of regions. Nevertheless, the reasons compromising livelihood systems resource tenure for all, men and sorghum is performing badly in and consequently reducing the women, and strong social these areas needs investigation, so adaptive capacities of communities attachment to family land. as to be able to pin-point what in the ASALs. The situation is also factors are contributing (Ntika, 2007). likely to be severe given the pace of All these notwithstanding, some unpredictable trends of climate adaptation to the negative effects of Further, though maize is more change impacts on rangelands and climate change are being exercised vulnerable in drought-prone areas other pastoral livelihood systems, across scales in different agro- compared with sorghum and millet, and the likelihood of interacting with ecological zones. For instance, the the traditional low food status non-climatic factors such as poor government in collaboration with associated with consumption of governance of natural resources and other key stakeholders has been sorghum and bulrush millet leaves dysfunctional institutional and policy investing heavily in the production of out a strong sociocultural issue that frameworks to support this cassava and potatoes, which are remains unaddressed. This is production sector. Therefore, drought-tolerant crops (MAFSC, probably one of the potential issues improving the policy framework and 2006). While potatoes and cassava that need to be studied under enhancing modern pastoral have behaved quite well across climate change initiatives. production systems, such as scale in semi-arid lands of Tanzania, through the establishment of sorghum has not. This crop has 5.3 Adaptation rangelands, would enhance the historically been drought tolerant knowledge, policies and resilience capacities of communities and equally has received strategies in livestock and contribute to socioeconomic government promotional efforts to development across scales. ensure it grows well. This falling Heavy dependence on traditional trend owes to the late Masika rains systems for livestock-keeping, onset and the serious effects of mainly featured by large numbers of
On the banks of the River Omo.
© Charles Roffey
CC2.0 https://creativecommon s.org/licenses/by-nc- sa/2.0/
40 Tanzania: Country situation assessment
5.4 Policies and areas have weak transport linkages productivity provided locally and to attract investments in the have used their knowledge to devise strategies in wildlife production of diverse farm products. coping and adaptive strategies to conservation The state has been promoting build their resilience. When the private sector development in recent situation becomes unbearable, they As we have noted, policy years, with some success in the have used migration, both seasonal interventions in terms of increasing food-processing industries and and permanent, as a survival wildlife conservation areas have also textiles, and there are plans to strategy. However, it is still unclear been a challenge to the livelihoods develop the extractive industries and how the dynamics of climatic and natural resource management in improve the productivity of conditions affect pastoral ASALs (Sendalo, 2009). The need agriculture. However, a majority of communities across scale and what for conservation and increasing the population remains engaged in the resulting policy implications are protected areas is reflected in the subsistence agriculture, with limited of human and livestock migration in many policies developed and pieces ability to engage with formal markets. the ASALs. of legislation enacted since the late 1990s. These documents include The lifestyle and economic strategy Human development and the Forest Policy (1998), the Forest of people living in ASALs is responses to climate Act (2002), the Environmental traditionally characterised by their Management Act (2004), the Wildlife need to ensure adequate water risks in ASALs Policy (2007) and the Wildlife Act supply and protection against food Human development is not only a (2009). shortages. Moving with livestock in matter of expanding people’s search of water and pasture choices to be educated, to live long Emerging participatory activities for resources is one of the main and healthy lives and to enjoy a wildlife management such as WMAs livelihood strategies (Gratzfeld, 2003). decent standard of living. It is also provide some scope for the about ensuring these choices are diversification of livelihoods in the The fact that these areas are secure and sustainable. The majority ASALs of Tanzania, especially in the regarded as not suitable for of communities living in ASALs are north-east. Community-based cultivation and that rainfall patterns denied life security because of the tourism is also an emerging are unpredictable and are subject to harsh conditions that they live in. opportunities for the improvement of great fluctuations means people are Access to education in the ASALs of wildlife management and community not attracted to live in them. Tanzania is weak, and high illiteracy livelihoods. These new Therefore, human populations and rates are a long-standing obstacle to arrangements for the management investments in terms of economic development. The overall of wildlife resources in Tanzania may communication, transportation and literacy rate in Monduli district, for also address some key challenges industry are not put in place. example, is 45%, with noticeable associated with tenure, financing of Unlike the government of Kenya, differences across gender, poverty wildlife management, infrastructure which is ready to collaborate with status and area of residence and markets for wildlife-related different stakeholders in building (Economic Development Initiatives, products. capacities and enabling marginalised 2005). It is therefore important to 5.5 Role of other drivers communities in its ASALs to break enable communities in ASALs to of economic growth in away from poverty, as stipulated in withstand the shocks that emanate the government’s Vision 2030 from the changing climate by resilience-building in (Gratzfeld, 2003; Republic of Kenya, increasing their resilience through Tanzania 2013), the government of Tanzania education. There is strong evidence has done little to ensure its ASALs that countries that possess and Markets and the private become productive and attract cultivate human capital outperform sector in ASALs people, specifically investors. It has other countries lacking human to be noted, however, that capital. Tanzania shares similar constraints communities in these areas have to other ASALs. Most parts of lived within these constraints for ASALs are water-scarce, and rural centuries. They have existed on the
Tanzania: Country situation assessment 41
6. Conclusion and recommendations
6.1 Conclusion observations in different parts of the 6.2 Policy globe. Nevertheless, it is important, This CSA set out to provide an initial and it will be more useful, to obtain recommendations assessment of the past and current more elaborate temperature and As seen earlier, many parts of the climate in Tanzania and to identify rainfall datasets from more ASALs in ASALs of Tanzania experience solutions to the complex challenges Tanzania to enable detailed and unreliable rainfall and water of natural resource management, thorough analysis. shortages. Rainwater harvesting and economic development, poverty Furthermore, the socioeconomic the promotion of water-efficient alleviation and resilience-building in irrigation agriculture may be the the context of climate change. assessment conducted with the aim of identifying solutions to the most logical policy for the semi-arid Analysis of the past and current complex climate change challenges areas of Tanzania. There is, however, climate in Tanzania, focusing on a at the interface of natural resource no easy answer to the question of few selected ASALs in terms of management, economic whether the focus of agricultural rainfall climatology for the 1960- development, poverty alleviation and development in such areas should 1990 and 1971-2000 baseline resilience-building identified a be on irrigated (blue water-based) or periods, indicates a slight decrease number of development dryland (green water-based) in rainfall in the later climatological opportunities in ASALs. This CSA agriculture. According to Senkondo period. The results of the trend has presented the most important of et al. (2004), the focus should be on analysis indicate that, although there these, including climate-smart both types of agriculture. has been no significant trend in agriculture, small-scale mining, Resilience in semi-arid areas can be rainfall at ASAL stations, there has sustainable pastoralism and further enhanced by implementing been a significant positive community-based wildlife resource strategies to improve the temperature trend in both maximum management. The roles of different productivity of the livestock sector and minimum temperatures at the actors in facilitating these through institutional and extension two stations observed in central opportunities will be the subject services (Nori et al., 2008; Tanzania. matter of future stakeholder Rowlinson et al., 2008). Stakeholder The trend in minimum temperature engagements and research, which engagement platforms as a basis for has been more pronounced and will aim at providing policy-makers learning and integration of resilience much faster compared with that in with practical guidance on inclusive, strategies into sectoral plans and the maximum temperature. This climate-resilient development and programmes are also recommended. result is consistent with the latest supporting emerging good Intergovernmental Panel on Climate adaptation practices within the Change (IPCC) findings and other ASALs of Tanzania.
42 Tanzania: Country situation assessment
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Tanzania: Country situation assessment 47
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