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Barbados Economic and Social Report 2018

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Barbados Economic and Social Report 2018 APPENDIX I Ministry of Economic Affairs 6 Investment Economic & Social Report 2018 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY……………………………………………………………………………………………….. 1 I INTERNATIONAL & REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT……………………………… 4 II THE BARBADOS ECONOMY……………………………………………………………………………… 7 A. Gross Domestic Product ……………………………………………………………………... 8 B. Balance of Payments ………………………………………………………………………….. 9 C. Fiscal Developments and Public Finances……………………………………………. 12 D. Employment, Inflation and Labour Market …………………………………………. 16 E. Sectoral Performance and Policy Development……………………………………. 19 i. Accommodation and Food Service Industry……………………….. 19 ii. Industrial Sector………………………………………………………………. 22 iii. Agriculture and Fishing…………………………………………………….. 24 iv. International Financial and Business Services……………………. 31 v. Construction……………………………………………………………………… 32 vi. Energy and Utilities…………………………………………………………… 36 vii. Transport………………………………………………………………………….. 38 F. Money, Banking and Capital Markets…………………………………………………… 40 G. Small Business Development………………………………………………………………. 45 H. Commerce and Consumer Affairs………………………………………………………… 45 I. Foreign Trade and International Relations…………………………………………… 46 III SOCIAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENT…………………………………………………………………….. 52 A. Education and Training……………………………………………………………………….. 52 B. Science and Technology………………………………………………………………………. 58 C. Creative Economy and Culture…………………………………………………………….. 59 D. Youth and Community Empowerment…………………………………………………. 61 E. Population………………………………………………………………………………………….. 62 F. Health………………………………………………………………………………………………… 63 G. Environment………………………………………………………………………………………. 71 H. Law and Order……………………………………………………………………………………. 86 I. Social Services…………………………………………………………………………………….. 87 J. Transport and Works………………………………………………………………………….. 104 IV PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT AND OFFICIAL DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE…… 105 A. Public Sector Investment Programme (PSIP) ………………………………………. 105 B. Official Development Assistance………………………………………………………….. 107 V ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR 2018……………………………………………………………………. 108 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1 Global GDP Growth: Actuals and Projections……………………………………….............. 4 Figure 2.1 Traded Sector Contribution to Real GDP Growth………………………………………….. 8 Figure 2.2 Non-Traded Sector Contribution to Real GDP………………………………………………. 8 Figure 2.3 Visible Trade Balance (2015– 2018) …………………………………………………………… 11 Figure 2.4 Direction of Trade- Domestic Exports for 2018 (per cent share)………….............. 11 Figure 2.5 Direction of Trade Total Imports for 2018 (percentage share) …………………….. 12 Figure 2.6 Fiscal Balance……………………………………………………………………………………............. 13 Figure 2.7 Government Revenue…………………………………………………………………………………. 13 Figure 2.8 Government Expenditure……………………………………………………………………………. 14 Figure 2.9 Labour Force Trends in Barbados 2008-2018……………………………………………… 17 Figure 2.10 Inflation……………………………………………………………………………………………………… 18 Figure 2.11 Annual Index of Industrial Production (1994=100) 2004-2018…………………… 23 Figure 2.12 Credit to Manufacturing BDS$'000………………………………………………………………. 23 Figure 2.13 Root Crop Production ('000kgs) …………………………………………………………………. 27 Figure 2.14 Securities Exchange of Barbados…………………………………………………………………. 42 Figure 3.1 Total Nutrition Counselling Visits to Polyclinics 2017 and 2018…………………… 67 Figure 3.2 Total Reported Crimes………………………………………………………………………………… 86 Figure 3.3 Sample of Violent Crimes 2012-2018…………………………………………………………… 87 Figure 3.4 Vehicular Reported Collisions 2018…………………………………………………………….. 87 LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1-1 Indicators of Economic Performance in Advanced Economies 2017/18…….. 5 Table 2.2-1 Balance of Payments (BOP) 2015-2018……………………………………………………. 10 Table 2.3-1 Fiscal Deficit Financing……………………………………………………………………………. 15 Table 2.4-1 Work Stoppages by Economic Activity 2013-2018……………………………………. 17 Table 2.5-1 Employment by Selected Industry……………………………………………………………. 19 Table 2.5-2 Stayover Visitor Arrivals by Market-January-December 2017-2018………….. 20 Table 2.5-3 Cruise Passenger Arrivals January-December 2017-2018…………………………. 21 Table 2.5-4 Total Visitor Expenditure (US$'000) January-December 2017-2018…………. 22 Table 2.5-5 Local Agricultural Production ('000 kgs) 2014-2018………………………………… 25 Table 2.5-6 Statistics on the Sugar Cane Industry – 2014-2018……………………………………. 25 Table 2.5-7 Production of Cotton 2013/2014 - 2017/2018…………………………………………. 26 Table 2.5-8 Fish Landings by Type (Tonnes) 2013 - 2018…………………………………………… 28 Table 2.5-9 Food Import Bill (BDS$) 2014-2018…………………………………………………………. 30 Table 2.5-10 Number of International Business) Entities Renewed & Active 2014 -2018.. 31 Table 2.5-11 Roads Patched by Depot in 2018………………………………………………………………. 35 Table 2.5-12 Barbados Vehicular Accidents 2017-2018………………………………………………… 38 Table 2.5-13 Vehicle Accident Claims for the year 2018………………………………………………… 39 Table 2.6-1 Registrants for Exempt, Qualifying, Management and Holding Companies 40 (2018) ……………………………………………………………………………………………………. Table 2.6-2 Securities Exchange Trading (Selected Markets) 2006-2018……………………... 43 Table 2.6-3 Index and Market Capitalization Year on Year 2017-2018…………………………. 44 Table 2.7-1 Trade with the United Kingdom 2015-2018……………………………………………… 46 Table 3.1-1 Approved Education Expenditure 2014/15 to 2018/19……………………………. 52 Table 3.1-2 Barbados Vocational Training Board Enrolment and Output of skilled 57 Manpower……………………………………………………………………………………………….. Table 3.5-1 Births, Deaths and Infant Mortality 1997 to 2018……………………………………… 62 Table 3.6-1 Health Expenditure by Programme 2016/17 to 2018/19………………………….. 63 Table 3.6-2 Tests Performed (Serology) 2018……………………………………………………………. 66 Table 3.6-3 Tests performed Environmental) 2018……………………………………………………. 66 Table 3.6-4 Tests performed (Microbiology) 2018……………………………………………………… 66 Table 3.6-5 Expenditure on the Number of Prescriptions Filled 2008/09 to 2017/18….. 67 Table 3.6-6 Admissions to the Psychiatric Hospital by Classification…………………………… 68 Table 3.6-7 Patients Discharged from the Psychiatric Hospital by Sex and Age……………. 68 Table 3.7-1 Level of Grant Funding Attracted by Biodiversity Programme…………………… 76 Table 3.7- 2 Complaints Received by the EPD 2018-2019…………………………………………….. 77 Table 3.8- 1 Major Sub-Categories of Offences 2018…………………………………………………….. 86 Table 3.9- 1 Referrals for 2018…………………………………………………………………………………… 93 Table 3.9- 2 Total Average Attendance for Males and Females 2018…………………………….. 94 Table 3.9- 3 Abuse by type for 2018……………………………………………………………………………. 96 Table 3.9- 4 Total Number of Abuse Cases for 2018……………………………………………………... 97 Table 3.9- 5 New Cases & New Children for 2018………………………………………………………… 99 Table 3.9- 6 CSO Grant Disbursements in 2018……………………………………………………………. 100 Table 3.9- 7 Funding Through the Civil Society Grant Scheme………………………………………. 101 Table 3.9- 8 National HIV/AIDS Commission Training Activities in 2018………………………. 101 Table 3.9- 9 Research and M&E Projects in 2018…………………………………………………………. 102 Table 3.9-10 UDC Housing and Housing Related Projects 2018……………………………………… 103 Table 3.10-1 Activities Completed by Drainage Division 2018……………………………………….. 104 Barbados Economic and Social Report 2018 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The economic slowdown which was restructuring of treasury bills, the use of a evident in the Barbados economy during 2017 retrofitted collective action mechanism, and the continued in 2018; however, there was a change inclusion of a natural disaster clause to in the country’s recovery outlook during the strengthen Barbados’ protection against second half of the year. exogenous shocks to the economy caused by such events. The clause will enable Barbados to In the economic circumstances leading stay current on its future debt obligations. into the year 2018, there was a drag on economic activity attributed primarily to the weak investor As a result of the debt restructuring, confidence due to successive credit rating Government was able to reduce total public downgrades, low levels of international reserves, sector debt to around 125 per cent of GDP by the escalating public debt and the increased fiscal end of fiscal year 2018/19 while simultaneously, tightening. preserving the country’s international reserves. In the months following the debt restructuring The urgent fiscal measures resulted in a announcement, the government continued to temporary increase in prices in the two service interest payments on domestic debt consecutive quarters following the 2017 while domestic creditors in-turn continued to budgetary proposals. However, prices fell roll over the maturing principle until an sharply thereafter as demand conditions were exchange offer was launched. This officially not robust enough to support an inflationary occurred on September 7, 2018. environment. The launching of the debt exchange offer On May 24, 2018 a new Government was served as a prior condition for the approval of the elected and was faced with an unsustainable Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement public debt level, which was estimated to have under the International Monetary Fund (IMF). escalated to above 157 per cent of GDP during This prior action was necessary to demonstrate the course of the year - based on its broadest confidence that a credible process for debt definition. In addition to the already high restructuring and management was in place and sovereign obligations, debt service payments of will sufficiently result in mobilizing creditor US$50 million became due in the month of June participation. 2018 along with other annual interest costs of US$400 million. These factors prompted the The EFF for
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