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Development Centre Studies «Development Centre Studies The World Economy A MILLENNIAL PERSPECTIVE The World Angus Maddison provides a comprehensive view of the growth and levels of world population since the year 1000. In this period, world population rose 22-fold, per capita GDP 13-fold and world GDP nearly 300-fold. The biggest gains occurred in the rich countries of Economy today (Western Europe, North America, Australasia and Japan). The gap between the world leader – the United States – and the poorest region – Africa – is now 20:1. In the year 1000, the rich countries of today were poorer than Asia and Africa. A MILLENNIAL PERSPECTIVE The book has several objectives. The first is a pioneering effort to quantify the economic performance of nations over the very long term. The second is to identify the forces which explain the success of the rich countries, and explore the obstacles which hindered advance in regions which lagged behind. The third is to scrutinise the interaction between the rich and the rest to assess the degree to which this relationship was exploitative. The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective is a “must” for all scholars of economics and economic history, while the casual reader will find much of fascinating interest. It is also a monumental work of reference. The book is a sequel to the author’s 1995 Monitoring the Economy: A Millennial Perspective The World World Economy: 1820-1992 and his 1998 Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run, both published by the OECD Development Centre. All OECD books and periodicals are now available on line www.SourceOECD.org www.oecd.org ANGUS MADDISON This work is published under the auspices of the OECD Development Centre. The Centre promotes comparative ISBN 92-64-18608-5 development analysis and policy dialogue, as described at: 41 2001 01 1 P www.oecd.org/dev -:HSTCQE=V][U]]: xxx Development Centre Seminars THE WORLD ECONOMY: A MILLENNIAL PERSPECTIVE by Angus Maddison DEVELOPMENT CENTRE OF THE ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO–OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT 1 ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT Pursuant to Article 1 of the Convention signed in Paris on 14th December 1960, and which came into force on 30th September 1961, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) shall promote policies designed: – to achieve the highest sustainable economic growth and employment and a rising standard of living in Member countries, while maintaining financial stability, and thus to contribute to the development of the world economy; – to contribute to sound economic expansion in Member as well as non-member countries in the process of economic development; and – to contribute to the expansion of world trade on a multilateral, non-discriminatory basis in accordance with international obligations. The original Member countries of the OECD are Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The following countries became Members subsequently through accession at the dates indicated hereafter: Japan (28th April 1964), Finland (28th January 1969), Australia (7th June 1971), New Zealand (29th May 1973), Mexico (18th May 1994), the Czech Republic (21st December 1995), Hungary (7th May 1996), Poland (22nd November 1996), Korea (12th December 1996) and the Slovak Republic (14th December 2000). The Commission of the European Communities takes part in the work of the OECD (Article 13 of the OECD Convention). The Development Centre of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development was established by decision of the OECD Council on 23rd October 1962 and comprises twenty-three Member countries of the OECD: Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, as well as Argentina and Brazil from March 1994, Chile since November 1998 and India since February 2001. The Commission of the European Communities also takes part in the Centre’s Advisory Board. The purpose of the Centre is to bring together the knowledge and experience available in Member countries of both economic development and the formulation and execution of general economic policies; to adapt such knowledge and experience to the actual needs of countries or regions in the process of development and to put the results at the disposal of the countries by appropriate means. The Centre has a special and autonomous position within the OECD which enables it to enjoy scientific independence in the execution of its task. Nevertheless, the Centre can draw upon the experience and knowledge available in the OECD in the development field. THE OPINIONS EXPRESSED AND ARGUMENTS EMPLOYED IN THIS PUBLICATION ARE THE SOLE RESPONSIBILITY OF THE AUTHOR AND DO NOT NECESSARILY REFLECT THOSE OF THE OECD OR OF THE GOVERNMENTS OF ITS MEMBER COUNTRIES. * * * Publié en français sous le titre : L’ÉCONOMIE MONDIALE Une perspective millénaire © OECD 2001 Permission to reproduce a portion of this work for non-commercial purposes or classroom use should be obtained through the Centre français d’exploitation du droit de copie (CFC), 20, rue des Grands-Augustins, 75006 Paris, France, tel. (33-1) 44 07 47 70, fax (33-1) 46 34 67 19, for every country except the United States. In the United States permission should be obtained through the Copyright Clearance Center, Customer Service, (508)750-8400, 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923 USA, or CCC Online: www.copyright.com. All other applications for permission to reproduce or translate all or part of this book should be made to OECD Publications, 2, rue André-Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16, France. Table of Contents Foreword Shortly after my arrival at the OECD in 1996, I came upon the study by Angus Maddison “Monitoring the World Economy 1820–1992”. It is a fascinating and stimulating work providing a complete coverage of the world economy during the period in question. It brought together data of some 56 countries accounting for 93 per cent of the world output and 87 per cent of the world population and world exports. It never left my desk. Probably I was not alone in my appreciation of this quite extraordinary work, as I kept coming on references to it in the work of other authors. As we were nearing the end of the twentieth century, it seemed to me that this study could undergo some slight revisions to make it more attractive to general readership, and brought up to the close of the century and of the second millennium. I discussed the project with Professor Maddison and, to my delight, he agreed. From his enormous energy and intellectual capacity emerges a far greater work in depth and scope than anything I had imagined possible. This book covers the development of the entire world economy over the past two thousand years. The author takes a (quite literally) global view of world growth over that period, examining both changes over time and between different regions. The book has a wider ambit than any previous OECD publication or, indeed, than almost any other publication in the market worldwide. First, the scope of the analysis is breath–taking. Second, there must be few (if any) economic history books so wide in their reach, in terms of both geography and history. Third, although his approach is economic, it is not narrowly so and draws on many other subjects — history, geography, demography and more — on the path to its conclusions; this multidisciplinary sweep gives the book great value. Because of its value and its global reach, I am sure it will find a global readership, as an authoritative reference for academics, students, professionals and general readership. I predict it will find its place in homes, offices and libraries in every corner of the world, and for many years to come. It will undoubtedly be the foundation for further works of this kind during the millennium we have just entered. We should all be extremely grateful to Angus Maddison for having taken on this challenge with results which far exceed my original expectations. John Maynard Keynes wrote that the master economist should “examine the present in light of the past, for the purposes of the future”. Never before have we had such a rich resource at our disposal to pursue that objective. Donald Johnston OECD Secretary–General 3 The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective 4 Table of Contents Table of Contents Foreword ....................................................................................................................................................... 3 Acknowledgements ...................................................................................................................................... 13 Preface ......................................................................................................................................................... 15 Summary and Conclusions........................................................................................................................... 17 Chapter 1 The Contours of World Development ..................................................................................... 27 Chapter 2 The Impact of Western Development on the Rest of the World, 1000–1950 .......................... 49 Chapter 3 The World Economy in the Second Half of the Twentieth Century ......................................
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