Upcoming Aircraft Country Profile Market Summaries Special Feature Pre-Owned Market Asia-Pacific Outlook Interviews
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ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY SECOND QUARTER 2018 PRE-OWNED MARKET ASIA-PACIFIC OUTLOOK HAWKER 800 SERIES METRICS & MOOD UPCOMING AIRCRAFT CITATION LATITUDE & LONGITUDE COUNTRY PROFILE AUSTRALIA MARKET SUMMARIES INTERVIEWS JETS & HELICOPTERS BEI ZHUANG SECOND QUARTER 2018 SECOND SPECIAL FEATURE AVION PACIFIC VICE PRESIDENT CHARTER REPORT PUBLISHER’S NOTE One of the main objectives of Asian Sky Quarterly is to give our readers valuable insight into current business jet and helicopter market conditions, where we see the changes occurring (market dynamics) and, in the course of doing so, hopefully pass on some enlightenment as to where the market is going. And sometimes this means to understand the market today, we need to look back. In Q2 2017, after months of question, speculation and doubt, we saw that the market had begun to stabilize and buyers were finally being enticed back by attractive prices and plenty of supply. In a nut shell, the market was awash with great value, the knowledgeable buyers recognized this and jumped in. A great Buyer’s Market. Fast forward one year to Q2 2018 and what started as a trickle is now a flood. The market has swung almost 180 degrees and we are now seeing the emergence of a Seller’s Market – lower inventory levels and rising prices. But, this story isn’t as simple as that. Optimism which has been on the rise since Q2 2016, finally plateaued in Q1 2018. Now, we’re seeing a slight change in mood as pessimistic feelings toward the economy are popping up, with Mainland China being the main influencer. The cause? There is, of course, great debate, although most would point a finger at the volatile climate between the US and China. Still, even with these pessimism tendencies towards the economy, any step toward a Seller’s Market, like we are seeing with business jets, purchase intentions are up and the pre-owned market is very active. for helicopters is far off and all we can do is wait and see. Average This last quarter saw a much higher level of business jet transactions asking prices here are continuing to decrease, while the percentage of (96) than the second quarters of 2017 (83) and 2016 (70). Average fleet for sale remains high. asking prices have also stabilized and the percentage of fleet for sale has declined. All these changing markets dynamics may then get As for the rest of this issue of Asian Sky Quarterly, our Summer edition compounded in a twisted way and strangely serve to stimulate demand features a look at the Cessna Citation Longitude and Latitude aircraft. even more as there is definitely a feeling of “you better buy it now ‘cause We also examine the ever-popular Hawker 800 series in our Pre-Owned in six months it’ll be gone or cost you more”. Aircraft profile. Fittingly, business aviation in Australia is profiled this quarter, including views and opinions form plenty of experts based in On the helicopter side, the story is a little more difficult to read but could that continent. We also had the chance to speak with Bei Zhuang, Vice also be encouraging. The market has seen an oversupply of inventory President at Avion Pacific and partner of ASG, who gave us her insights — the result of the downturn in oil and gas — since ASG first began on China’s GA industry. its surveys in 2016. But for the first time now, we are seeing inventory levels decreasing. The optimist says this could finally suggest a trend reversal and such a claim may not be totally unfounded as O&G is recovering, with growth in other multi-mission applications continuing too – especially in EMS and firefighting roles here in the Asia-Pacific region. The pessimist, though, says sellers have finally just given up on the possible sale of their aircraft and taken them off the market. And there may be some truths in this perspective too. Looking at a few of the larger helicopters on the market — the S92 and H225 — transactions Sincerely, are few and days on market are increasing. The S76C+, used in the O&G Jeffrey C. Lowe operations, has reached an average days on market of 866. In the end, Managing Director, Asian Sky Group SPECIAL THANKS TO OUR CONTRIBUTORS: SECOND QUARTER 2018 — ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY | 1 CONTENTS 04 ECONOMICS 26 UPCOMING SPOTLIGHT Overview of the Asia-Pacific region’s current status and CESSNA CITATION LONGITUDE & LATITUDE specific country’s GDP versus their business jet fleet size. An introduction to the midsize and super mid-size jets, with a complete look at series’ range, payload capacity and evolution over the years. 06 MOOD & INTENTIONS Results of the survey on the Asia-Pacific region’s outlook on current economic status, aircraft utilization, purchase 28 MARKET DYNAMICS intentions and influencing factors. An in-depth analysis of inventory levels, market trends and the changing price signals for the business jet and helicopter fleets in the Asia-Pacific region, given the 12 SPECIAL FEATURE continual fluctuations in supply and demand. CHARTER DEMAND AND POPULAR CHARTER ROUTES IN ASIA PACIFIC A summary of the growing demand for business jet charter 37 PRE-OWNED MARKET SPOTLIGHT and a look into the most popular regional routes for charter. HAWKER 800 SERIES A comprehensive market performance analysis of the pre- owned Hawker 800 series market. 16 INTERVIEW: BEI ZHUANG, VICE PRESIDENT, AVION PACIFIC Discussing her experience in the business aviation industry 43 MARKET SUMMARY - JETS and expectations in the Mainland China business jet A look at the market performance of featured pre-owned market. business jets over the last 12 months. 18 COUNTRY PROFILE - AUSTRALIA 54 MARKET SUMMARY - HELICOPTERS Overview and examination of Australia’s business aviation A look at the market performance of featured pre-owned industry, its business jet operating environment and helicopters over the last 12 months. potential for the future. 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We’ll get you in the air. globaljetcapital.com LEASING & LENDING SOLUTIONS FOR PRIVATE AIRCRAFT GJCP 22442 - Asian Sky - April 2018-2.indd 1 3/15/18 3:11 PM 2018Q1 ECONOMICS Australia Malaysia Australia’s economy grew above the 2.8 percent expectation by 3.1 Growth in Q1 2018 slowed in Malaysia to 5.4 percent, down from percent year-on-year (y/y) in Q1 of 2018. The acceleration indicates that 5.9 percent in Q4 2017. The slowdown comes amid uncertainty of Australia has recovered from the slowdown of Q4, which was caused the county’s new administration, led by Mahathir Mohamad. The by the implementation of large mining projects.