Bulletin #38 • July 2020 •

Bulletin #38 • July 2020 • www.zrbf.co.zw

IN THIS REPORT The purpose of the ZRBF High Frequency Monitoring Bulletin is to avail Overall Results and Implications 2 real time data and information on identified and agreed trigger indicators Status Update on Macro-Trigger Indicators 4 for the activation of the crisis modifier, performance monitoring, Vegetation Condition Index 4 programming and other decisions for the overall ZRBF adaptive Summary of Broad Classification: Micro programme management. Information presented in this bulletin is readily Trigger Indicators 5 available in the HFM Online Database, accessible using this url Detailed Micro Trigger Indicators Update and Proposed Mitigatory Activities 7 https://197.155.231.242/undp/ZRBF/HFMS/index.php Biophysical Trigger indicators 7 Production Trigger indicators 9 The bulletin contains official information for the month of June 2020 Access Trigger Indicators 10 collected from various sources by ZRBF partners and analysed by Trade Trigger Indicators 12 ZRBF PMU. The High Frequency Monitoring Bulletin is a product of collaboration between the ZRBF Partners and other government agencies. For questions and comments regarding this bulletin, kindly get in touch with Vhusomuzi Sithole ([email protected]), Shupikai Mutyambizi ([email protected]).

UNDP Zimbabwe, ZRBF Programme Management Unit Arundel Office Park, Block 9, Norfolk Rd, Mt. Pleasant, Harare, Zimbabwe +263 4 338836-44 1. Overall Results and Implications

Summary Classification

Key Highlights According to the High Frequency Monitoring (HFM) classification, all the 18 districts were in the Alert category. The following micro indicators, which in the Emergency Stage, drove this overall classification. • Cattle Price in Beitbridge and Binga • Common Diarrhoea Reported Cases in Beitbridge, Chiredzi, Kariba, Lupane, Mberengwa, Mbire, Mudzi, Mutoko, Mwenezi, Nkayi, Nyanga, Umguza and Zvishavane. • Crops pest and diseases outbreaks in Bubi, Insiza, Lupane, Matobo, Nkayi and Nyanga • Distances to Water Sources for Households in Nkayi and Nyanga • Maize Price in Umzingwane • Pastures Availability in Insiza • Pearl Millet Price in Bubi, Lupane, Nkayi and Umzingwane • Rapoko Price in Kariba • Sheep Price in Binga • Sorghum Price in Nkayi and Umzingwane • Vegetation Cover Index in Bubi, Insiza, Lupane, Matobo, Mberengwa, Mbire, Nkayi, Umguza, Umzingwane and Zvishavane • Water for livestock Trekking Distance in Nyanga. 2

Table 1 below summarises these trends in the overall classification of all 18 districts over the last 12 months. Table 1: Overall Classification of the 18 districts

Month Beitbridge Bubi Binga Chiredzi Insiza Kariba Lupane Matobo Mberengwa Mbire Mudzi Mutoko Mwenezi Nkayi Nyanga Umguza Umzingwane Zvishavane

June Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert 2020

May Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert 2020

Apri-20 Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alarm

Mar-20 Alarm Alert Alert Alert Normal Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alert

Feb-20 Alert Alert Alert Alert No data Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Jan-20 Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Dec-19 Alarm Alarm Alarm Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Nov-19 Alarm Alert Alarm Alarm Alert Alert Alarm Alarm Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alarm Alert

Oct-19 Alert Alarm Alarm Alarm Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alarm Alert Alarm Alarm Alert

Sept-19 Alert Alarm Alert Alarm Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Aug-19 Alert Alert Alarm Alarm Alert Alarm Alert Alarm Alarm Alarm Alert Alert Alarm Alarm Alert Alarm Alert Alert

July-19 Alarm Alert Alarm Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alert

June-19 Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert No data Alert

2. Status Update Macro-Indicators

2.1 Vegetation Condition Index

Figure 1: Vegetation Condition Index for June 2020

The Vegetation Condition Index shows a generally VCI Crisis reduced vegetation condition across the country. District value Modifier In June 2020, 10 districts were in Emergency, 6 in Beitbridge 0.27 Alarm Alarm and 2 in Alert categories as shown below: Binga 0.32 Alarm a) Alert (Kariba and Mudzi) Bubi 0.12 Emergency b) Alarm (Beitbridge, Binga, Chiredzi, Chiredzi 0.31 Alarm Mutoko, Mwenezi and Nyanga) Insiza 0.18 Emergency c) Emergency (Bubi, Insiza, Lupane, Matobo, Kariba 0.57 Alert Mberengwa, Mbire, Nkayi, Umguza, Lupane 0.17 Emergency Matobo 0.18 Emergency Umzingwane and Zvishavane) Mberengwa 0.20 Emergency

Mbire 0.21 Emergency This shows reduced vegetation condition when Mudzi 0.52 Alert compared to the May 2020 values. Mutoko 0.43 Alarm Mwenezi 0.26 Alarm Nkayi 0.12 Emergency Nyanga 0.42 Alarm Umguza 0.12 Emergency Umzingwane 0.12 Emergency Zvishavane 0.10 Emergency 4

3.Summary of Broad Classification: Micro Trigger Indicators

The micro-indicator data from the 18 reported districts reflect conditions in the four broad classes of indicators, biophysical, production and access indicators, are mostly in the Alert category.

. Biophysical indicators are in Alarm in five (5) districts, deteriorating from May where all districts were in the Alert category. Pasture availability which is inadequate in all districts and state of water sources which have depleted as well as the vegetation cover index which is in emergency in 10 districts are the main cause of this categorisation. 12 districts are in Alert and Mudzi in normal. . Production indicators in eight (8) districts are in the Alert category a slight improvement from 11 in the previous month. This is mainly due to a reduction in reported cases of livestock diseases, livestock poverty deaths and crop pests and diseases outbreak. Ten districts are in the normal category . Access indicators are in the Alert category in 16 districts and in Emergency in Nyanga where livestock trekking distance for water is 13km, distances to water sources for households is 9km and in Nkayi where households are walking 6km to fetch water. . Five (5) districts are in Alert category for Trade indicators. Umzingwane District is in the Alarm category. There has been an increase in livestock and grain prices in USD terms despite the fall of the ZWD against the USD. Farmers are opting to sell their commodities in foreign currency and ZWD cash, rejecting electronic money. A new dimension to the pricing of commodities has been brought in by the foreign currency auction system. This has seen some prices which are highly priced in ZWD fall to below normal thresholds in the USD dollar as the ZWD has weakened by 100% from 25 to 57. Umguza, Nkayi, Bubi, Insiza, Umzingwane, Lupane and Matobo are pricing their commodities in Rands hence some commodities have gone above the normal thresholds into emergency category. This is favourable to farmers disposing of these commodities but prohibitive to those purchasing.

Table 2: Trigger Indicator summary for June 2020 Biophysical Production Access Trade District Indicators Indicators Indicators Indicators Beitbridge Alarm Alert Alert Alert Binga Alert Normal Alert Alert Bubi Alert Normal Alert Alert Chiredzi Alert Normal Alert Normal Insiza Alarm Normal Alert Normal Kariba Alert Alert Alert Alert Lupane Alert Alert Alert Normal Matobo Alarm Normal Alert Normal Mberengwa Alert Alert Alert Normal Mbire Alert Normal Alert Normal Mudzi Normal Alert Alert Normal Mutoko Alert Alert Alert Normal Mwenezi Alert Normal Alert Normal Nkayi Alarm Normal Alarm Alert Nyanga Alert Alert Alarm Normal Umguza Alert Normal Alert Normal Umzingwane Alarm Normal Alert Alarm Zvishavane Alert Alert Alert Normal

Detailed Micro Trigger Indicators Update and Proposed Mitigatory Activities 4.1. Biophysical Trigger indicators Table 3: Biophysical trigger indicator summary for June 2020 Biophysical Indicators Pastures State of Water Mid-season Dry District Rainfall Availability Sources Spells Beitbridge 2 No data 3 0 Binga 3 No data 3 0 Bubi 2 0 2 0 Chiredzi 2 5 3 0 Insiza 1 0 2 0 Kariba 3 No data 3 0 Lupane 3 No data 3 0 Matobo 2 No data 2 0 Mberengwa 2 1.68 3 0 Mbire 3 0 3 0 Mudzi 3 0 4 0 Mutoko 3 0 3 0 Mwenezi 2 0.35 2 0 Nkayi 2 0 2 0 Nyanga 2 0 2 0 Umguza 2 0 2 0 Umzingwane 2 0 2 0 Zvishavane 2 0 2 0

. Rainfall was recorded in Chiredzi, Mberengwa and Mwenezi districts. All districts are in the normal category for rainfall. . Pasture availability is in Alert in Insiza district where the remaining pastures will only last for a month. 11 districts are in the Alarm category, Available Pasture will last 1-3 months. Six (6) districts are in the Alert category with pastures expected to last 3-6 months. . Nine (9) districts are in the Alarm category with 30-65% of the boreholes functioning for State of water sources, this an increase from three in the previous month. Eight (8) districts are in Alert category and only Mudzi has more than 85% of the boreholes functioning and is in the Normal category

Proposed Mitigation Activities Farmers are encouraged to find alternative food sources to feed their cattle. Those with crop residues should preserve it for fodder and do urea treatment to improve its nutrition content. The consortia should take advantage of the ZRBF efforts to scale-up fodder production through bush meal production across the 18 districts, to produce livestock feeds. Farmers should always be reminded on the need to destock and remain with cattle they can feed between now and the rainy season and prevent all-right losses from the imminent cattle poverty death. Those that have money to buy supplementary feed should do so now as the feeds will be more expensive at the zenith of the pasture shortage between September and December

ZRBF consortia working together with water and sanitation committees should take advantage of the extra resources by the ZRBF donors to rehabilitate all the non- functional boreholes in all the ZRBF targeted districts. These efforts will significantly reduce the for-water trekking distances for households and cattle and the chances of livestock poverty death in the targeted districts. The communities should be encouraged to embrace multiple water use and water use efficiency at the improved water points.

4.2 Production Trigger indicators Table 4: Production trigger indicator summary for June 2020 Production Indicators Number Reported Reported Crops Pest Livestock Crop Livestock Cases of Cases of District and Diseases Body Condition Poverty Livestock Waterborne Outbreaks Condition Deaths Diseases Diseases Beitbridge 3 3 3 0 87 187 Binga No data No data 2 0 0 111 Bubi No data No data 2 0 0 31 Chiredzi 3 3 2 0 1 493 Insiza No data No data 2 0 0 37 Kariba 3 No data 2 0 76 177 Lupane No data No data 2 0 0 150 Matobo No data No data 1 0 0 49 Mberengwa 3 No data 2 0 58 214 Mbire No data No data 2 0 70 224 Mudzi 2 No data 2 0 25 228 Mutoko 2 No data 2 0 24 262 Mwenezi 3 3 2 0 0 223 Nkayi No data No data 2 0 0 138 Nyanga 2 3 2 0 101 166 Umguza No data No data 2 0 0 178 Umzingwane No data No data 2 0 0 30 Zvishavane 2 No data 2 0 23 189

. Crops have been harvested in the fields, hence no data for crop pests and diseases and crop condition in most districts. Four (4) districts are in the Alert category; Garden crops are being affected by aphids, red spider mite, common moth red beetle in Mudzi. Aphids and cutworms are affecting horticulture crops in Zvishavane. . There have been no livestock poverty deaths recorded in all the districts, this is despite pastures and water sources depleted. This can be attributed to the fodder production and supplementary stock feed interventions of the Crisis Modifier in these districts . Eight (8) districts are in the Alert category for Livestock diseases and Nyanga is in the Alarm category having recorded 94 cases of fowl pox. . Fourteen districts are in the Emergency category for water borne diseases up from thirteen in the previous month. Dysentery cases were reported across all the districts.

Bubi Matobo and Umzingwane are in the Alarm category with less than 50 cases and Insiza is in the Alert category. . Livestock Body condition is in Alert in 16 districts and Alarm in Matobo, this has been caused by the inadequate pastures and the increase livestock trekking distance for water.

Proposed Mitigatory Activities To reduce livestock starvation and drought related deaths, farmers should be implored to supplement feed their cattle and to adopt the different options of fodder production being promoted by the ZRBF consortia in their respective districts.

There is need to continuously strengthen the ‘sustainable supply of acaricides to communal dip tanks model’ by ensuring that cattle owners are sensitized and adequately educated on the benefits of investing in the procurement and use acaricides.

ZRBF consortia should support district civil protection committee’s capacity to manage local seasonal epidemics by ensuring that the rehabilitation of water sources is complemented by health and hygiene awareness campaigns. This will help prevent an outbreak of waterborne diseases and exposure to COVID 19.

4.3 Access Trigger Indicators Table 5: Access trigger indicator summary for June 2020 Access Indicators Distances to Water Water for Number of School District Sources for Livestock Trekking Meals Attendance Households Distance Beitbridge 2 3 No data 2 Binga 1.5 2 No data 2.5 Bubi 2.5 1 No data 3.5 Chiredzi 1.17 2 No data 2.5 Insiza 3 2 No data 3 Kariba 1 2 No data 2 Lupane 3.5 2 No data 3 Matobo 2 2 No data 4 Mberengwa 2.43 2 No data 2.87 Mbire 2 2 No data 4 Mudzi 2.1 2 No data 2.77 Mutoko 2 2 No data 2.6 Mwenezi 3.43 2 No data 4.52 Nkayi 6 2 No data 6 Nyanga 9 2 No data 13 Umguza 2.5 2 No data 2.5 Umzingwane 3 1 No data 3.5

Zvishavane 2.44 2 No data 3.3

. Distance to water sources is in Emergency category in Nyanga and Nkayi, Alarm category in Lupane and Mwenezi and in Alert in 13 districts. Kariba is the only district in the normal with households travelling 1km to access water . Two districts; (Bubi and Umzingwane) are in Alarm category having only 1 meal a day, households in these districts are employing a negative coping strategy of reducing number of meals to cope with the food insecurity caused by increases in food prices and low harvests. 15 districts are in the Alert category . Water for livestock trekking distance is in emergency in Nyanga where livestock trek an average of 13km to access water. Nkayi is in the Alarm category with 6km. Sixteen districts are in the Alert category. . All schools are closed due to the COVID 19 pandemic.

Proposed Mitigatory Activities Consortia working in communities which endure long distances to access water for domestic and livestock consumption, may leverage on additional funding from the Embassy of Sweden which UNDP have received for resilience building. This additional support allows ZRBF to invest in water for agriculture and livestock as well as in response to increased hygiene requirements due to COVID-19.

Arbitrary increases of prices of basic commodities, reduced flow of remittances and fiscal space for social protection programmes and a frozen labour market have been identified as some of the drivers of the recent surge in the number of households eating an average of 2 meals. ZRBF consortia should continuously engage all the relevant stakeholders to ensure that food insecure households are included in the various cash interventions being implemented throughout the districts.

4.4 Trade Trigger Indicators Table 6: Trade trigger indicator summary for June 2020 Indigenous Pearl Cattle Goat Maize Rapoko Sheep Sorghum District Chicken Millet Price Price Price Price Price Price Price Price Beitbridge 116 15 3.5 4 4 4 31 4 Binga 100 13 4 6 5 No data 14 5 Bubi 210 47 7 4 15 4 47 6 Chiredzi 350 39 6 8 9 15 57 7 Insiza 600 40 8 7 8 9 70 8 Kariba 368 35 7 4.5 No data 2 49 4 Lupane 450 40 6 8 15 10 47 8 Matobo 550 40 5 7 No data No data 50 6 Mberengwa 351 35 5 5 5 14 123 5 Mbire 297 28 6 6 6 No data 42 6 Mudzi 272.92 31.59 4.65 5.67 6.67 8.77 62.7 4.88 Mutoko 250 25 4 5 7 8 50 6 Mwenezi 347 34 5 7 7 10 49 7 Nkayi 235 30 9 6 15 No data 29 15 Nyanga 475 30 5 7 10 10 70 8 Umguza 450 30 5 7 7 No data 35 7 Umzingwane 500 30 7 15 15 No data 35 12 Zvishavane 526 60 7 6 10 15 100 7

• Trade Indicators were converted to USD using the prevailing Auction rate of 57 as at 30 June 2020. Most districts pegged their prices in USD, and for those still charging in ZWD the prices have increased significantly although they have reduced in USD terms due to the weakening of the ZWD. • Cattle in Beitbridge and Binga are selling for 100 USD; hence they are in the Emergency category. Five (5) districts have fallen into the Alert category as cattle prices fell to below the normal threshold of 300+ USD due to the weakening of the ZWL dollar to the USD. Cattle prices have however improved significantly as farmers began to trade in USD. • Sheep prices fell below the normal prices to 14 dollars in Binga owing to the weakening of the ZWD against the USD. • Pearl Millet, sorghum and maize prices are in the Emergency category in four districts owing to an increase of the pricing in Rands and the strengthening of the rand against the USD. This has seen prices going above the normal threshold of 10 USD • Most of the Alerts in commodity prices were caused by the changes in the exchange rate as the ZW dollar weakened against the USD. Farmers have however increased their prices in ZWD to match the distortions. Commodities in Umzingwane, Umguza, Bubi, Nkayi, Lupane and Matobo priced in Rands are falling above the normal thresholds into

emergency category. This is favourable to the farmers disposing but prohibitive to the farmers purchasing

Proposed Mitigatory Activities Cattle farming has the potential to increase the overall income of the farmers and raise their standard of living. Farmers are, therefore, encouraged to only sell their products where and when it is most profitable and plan production to take advantage of the most favourable markets. With USD valuations for livestock, farmers may position themselves well to take advantage of niche markets that may add value to their cattle.