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Bulletin #38 • July 2020 • Bulletin #38 • July 2020 • www.zrbf.co.zw IN THIS REPORT The purpose of the ZRBF High Frequency Monitoring Bulletin is to avail Overall Results and Implications 2 real time data and information on identified and agreed trigger indicators Status Update on Macro-Trigger Indicators 4 for the activation of the crisis modifier, performance monitoring, Vegetation Condition Index 4 programming and other decisions for the overall ZRBF adaptive Summary of Broad Classification: Micro programme management. Information presented in this bulletin is readily Trigger Indicators 5 available in the HFM Online Database, accessible using this url Detailed Micro Trigger Indicators Update and Proposed Mitigatory Activities 7 https://197.155.231.242/undp/ZRBF/HFMS/index.php Biophysical Trigger indicators 7 Production Trigger indicators 9 The bulletin contains official information for the month of June 2020 Access Trigger Indicators 10 collected from various sources by ZRBF partners and analysed by Trade Trigger Indicators 12 ZRBF PMU. The High Frequency Monitoring Bulletin is a product of collaboration between the ZRBF Partners and other government agencies. For questions and comments regarding this bulletin, kindly get in touch with Vhusomuzi Sithole ([email protected]), Shupikai Mutyambizi ([email protected]). UNDP Zimbabwe, ZRBF Programme Management Unit Arundel Office Park, Block 9, Norfolk Rd, Mt. Pleasant, Harare, Zimbabwe +263 4 338836-44 1. Overall Results and Implications Summary Classification Key Highlights According to the High Frequency Monitoring (HFM) classification, all the 18 districts were in the Alert category. The following micro indicators, which in the Emergency Stage, drove this overall classification. • Cattle Price in Beitbridge and Binga • Common Diarrhoea Reported Cases in Beitbridge, Chiredzi, Kariba, Lupane, Mberengwa, Mbire, Mudzi, Mutoko, Mwenezi, Nkayi, Nyanga, Umguza and Zvishavane. • Crops pest and diseases outbreaks in Bubi, Insiza, Lupane, Matobo, Nkayi and Nyanga • Distances to Water Sources for Households in Nkayi and Nyanga • Maize Price in Umzingwane • Pastures Availability in Insiza • Pearl Millet Price in Bubi, Lupane, Nkayi and Umzingwane • Rapoko Price in Kariba • Sheep Price in Binga • Sorghum Price in Nkayi and Umzingwane • Vegetation Cover Index in Bubi, Insiza, Lupane, Matobo, Mberengwa, Mbire, Nkayi, Umguza, Umzingwane and Zvishavane • Water for livestock Trekking Distance in Nyanga. 2 Table 1 below summarises these trends in the overall classification of all 18 districts over the last 12 months. Table 1: Overall Classification of the 18 districts Month Beitbridge Bubi Binga Chiredzi Insiza Kariba Lupane Matobo Mberengwa Mbire Mudzi Mutoko Mwenezi Nkayi Nyanga Umguza Umzingwane Zvishavane June Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert 2020 May Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert 2020 Apri-20 Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alarm Mar-20 Alarm Alert Alert Alert Normal Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alert Feb-20 Alert Alert Alert Alert No data Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Jan-20 Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Dec-19 Alarm Alarm Alarm Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Nov-19 Alarm Alert Alarm Alarm Alert Alert Alarm Alarm Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alarm Alert Oct-19 Alert Alarm Alarm Alarm Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alarm Alert Alarm Alarm Alert Sept-19 Alert Alarm Alert Alarm Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Aug-19 Alert Alert Alarm Alarm Alert Alarm Alert Alarm Alarm Alarm Alert Alert Alarm Alarm Alert Alarm Alert Alert July-19 Alarm Alert Alarm Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alarm Alert Alert Alert Alert June-19 Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert No data Alert 3 2. Status Update Macro-Indicators 2.1 Vegetation Condition Index Figure 1: Vegetation Condition Index for June 2020 The Vegetation Condition Index shows a generally VCI Crisis reduced vegetation condition across the country. District value Modifier In June 2020, 10 districts were in Emergency, 6 in Beitbridge 0.27 Alarm Alarm and 2 in Alert categories as shown below: Binga 0.32 Alarm a) Alert (Kariba and Mudzi) Bubi 0.12 Emergency b) Alarm (Beitbridge, Binga, Chiredzi, Chiredzi 0.31 Alarm Mutoko, Mwenezi and Nyanga) Insiza 0.18 Emergency c) Emergency (Bubi, Insiza, Lupane, Matobo, Kariba 0.57 Alert Mberengwa, Mbire, Nkayi, Umguza, Lupane 0.17 Emergency Matobo 0.18 Emergency Umzingwane and Zvishavane) Mberengwa 0.20 Emergency Mbire 0.21 Emergency This shows reduced vegetation condition when Mudzi 0.52 Alert compared to the May 2020 values. Mutoko 0.43 Alarm Mwenezi 0.26 Alarm Nkayi 0.12 Emergency Nyanga 0.42 Alarm Umguza 0.12 Emergency Umzingwane 0.12 Emergency Zvishavane 0.10 Emergency 4 3.Summary of Broad Classification: Micro Trigger Indicators The micro-indicator data from the 18 reported districts reflect conditions in the four broad classes of indicators, biophysical, production and access indicators, are mostly in the Alert category. Biophysical indicators are in Alarm in five (5) districts, deteriorating from May where all districts were in the Alert category. Pasture availability which is inadequate in all districts and state of water sources which have depleted as well as the vegetation cover index which is in emergency in 10 districts are the main cause of this categorisation. 12 districts are in Alert and Mudzi in normal. Production indicators in eight (8) districts are in the Alert category a slight improvement from 11 in the previous month. This is mainly due to a reduction in reported cases of livestock diseases, livestock poverty deaths and crop pests and diseases outbreak. Ten districts are in the normal category . Access indicators are in the Alert category in 16 districts and in Emergency in Nyanga where livestock trekking distance for water is 13km, distances to water sources for households is 9km and in Nkayi where households are walking 6km to fetch water. Five (5) districts are in Alert category for Trade indicators. Umzingwane District is in the Alarm category. There has been an increase in livestock and grain prices in USD terms despite the fall of the ZWD against the USD. Farmers are opting to sell their commodities in foreign currency and ZWD cash, rejecting electronic money. A new dimension to the pricing of commodities has been brought in by the foreign currency auction system. This has seen some prices which are highly priced in ZWD fall to below normal thresholds in the USD dollar as the ZWD has weakened by 100% from 25 to 57. Umguza, Nkayi, Bubi, Insiza, Umzingwane, Lupane and Matobo are pricing their commodities in Rands hence some commodities have gone above the normal thresholds into emergency category. This is favourable to farmers disposing of these commodities but prohibitive to those purchasing. 5 Table 2: Trigger Indicator summary for June 2020 Biophysical Production Access Trade District Indicators Indicators Indicators Indicators Beitbridge Alarm Alert Alert Alert Binga Alert Normal Alert Alert Bubi Alert Normal Alert Alert Chiredzi Alert Normal Alert Normal Insiza Alarm Normal Alert Normal Kariba Alert Alert Alert Alert Lupane Alert Alert Alert Normal Matobo Alarm Normal Alert Normal Mberengwa Alert Alert Alert Normal Mbire Alert Normal Alert Normal Mudzi Normal Alert Alert Normal Mutoko Alert Alert Alert Normal Mwenezi Alert Normal Alert Normal Nkayi Alarm Normal Alarm Alert Nyanga Alert Alert Alarm Normal Umguza Alert Normal Alert Normal Umzingwane Alarm Normal Alert Alarm Zvishavane Alert Alert Alert Normal 6 Detailed Micro Trigger Indicators Update and Proposed Mitigatory Activities 4.1. Biophysical Trigger indicators Table 3: Biophysical trigger indicator summary for June 2020 Biophysical Indicators Pastures State of Water Mid-season Dry District Rainfall Availability Sources Spells Beitbridge 2 No data 3 0 Binga 3 No data 3 0 Bubi 2 0 2 0 Chiredzi 2 5 3 0 Insiza 1 0 2 0 Kariba 3 No data 3 0 Lupane 3 No data 3 0 Matobo 2 No data 2 0 Mberengwa 2 1.68 3 0 Mbire 3 0 3 0 Mudzi 3 0 4 0 Mutoko 3 0 3 0 Mwenezi 2 0.35 2 0 Nkayi 2 0 2 0 Nyanga 2 0 2 0 Umguza 2 0 2 0 Umzingwane 2 0 2 0 Zvishavane 2 0 2 0 . Rainfall was recorded in Chiredzi, Mberengwa and Mwenezi districts. All districts are in the normal category for rainfall. Pasture availability is in Alert in Insiza district where the remaining pastures will only last for a month. 11 districts are in the Alarm category, Available Pasture will last 1-3 months. Six (6) districts are in the Alert category with pastures expected to last 3-6 months. Nine (9) districts are in the Alarm category with 30-65% of the boreholes functioning for State of water sources, this an increase from three in the previous month. Eight (8) districts are in Alert category and only Mudzi has more than 85% of the boreholes functioning and is in the Normal category 7 Proposed Mitigation Activities Farmers are encouraged to find alternative food sources to feed their cattle. Those with crop residues should preserve it for fodder and do urea treatment to improve its nutrition content. The consortia should take advantage of the ZRBF efforts to scale-up fodder production through bush meal production across the 18 districts, to produce livestock feeds. Farmers should always be reminded on the need to destock and remain with cattle they can feed between now and the rainy season and prevent all-right losses from the imminent cattle poverty death.
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