Total Maximum Daily Load Shoreline Segments in Chicago, Cook County

Total Maximum Daily Load Shoreline Segments in Chicago, Cook County, Illinois 29 Segments from Juneway Terrace Park Beach to Calumet South Beach Pathogen Indicators (Escherichia coli) Illinois Environmental Protection Agency February 13, 2013 Total Maximum Daily Load Chicago, Cook County, Illinois – 29 Segments Table of Contents List of Acronyms ......................................................................................................................................... vi 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Priority Ranking .......................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Framework for Illinois Shoreline Segments TMDL Development ............................................. 2 2. Overview of Impaired Segments ............................................................................................................ 5 2.1 Watershed Characterization ........................................................................................................ 6 2.1.1 Rogers Park Beaches .................................................................................................... 9 2.1.2 Leone, Loyola, and Hartigan Beaches ........................................................................ 13 2.1.3 Lincoln Park Impaired Segments ............................................................................... 17 2.1.4 Downtown Impaired Segments .................................................................................. 23 2.1.5 Near South Impaired Segments .................................................................................. 26 2.1.6 Jackson Park Beaches ................................................................................................. 30 2.1.7 South Chicago Impaired Segments ............................................................................ 33 2.1.8 Calumet South Beach ................................................................................................. 36 2.2 Current E. coli Conditions ........................................................................................................ 39 3. Problem Statement ............................................................................................................................... 44 3.1 WQS and TMDL Targets ......................................................................................................... 47 3.2 Linkage Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 49 3.2.1 The Great Lakes Coastal Forecasting System ............................................................ 52 3.2.2 Precipitation ............................................................................................................... 53 3.2.3 Land Use/Cover .......................................................................................................... 54 3.2.4 Substrate ..................................................................................................................... 56 3.2.5 Shoreline Physical Characteristics ............................................................................. 58 3.2.6 Chicago Area Waterway System ................................................................................ 59 3.3 Loading Capacity and Existing Load ........................................................................................ 60 4. Total Maximum Daily Loads Development ......................................................................................... 60 4.1 Pollutant Source Assessment ..................................................................................................... 61 4.1.1 Sewage Treatment Plants ........................................................................................... 61 4.1.2 Stormwater ................................................................................................................. 61 4.1.3 CAWS Reversals ........................................................................................................ 63 4.1.4 Other Sources ............................................................................................................. 64 4.2 Pollutant Allocations ................................................................................................................. 64 4.2.1 Wasteload Allocations ............................................................................................... 64 4.2.2 Load Allocations ....................................................................................................... 65 4.3 Margin of Safety ........................................................................................................................ 65 4.4 Seasonal Variation ..................................................................................................................... 65 4.5 Critical Conditions ..................................................................................................................... 66 4.6 Reserve Capacity ....................................................................................................................... 67 4.7 Total Maximum Daily Loads .................................................................................................... 67 4.8 Load Reduction Calculation Methods ....................................................................................... 67 4.8.1 Step 1: Data Collection and Initial Analysis .............................................................. 68 4.8.2 Step 2: Initial Model Fitting ....................................................................................... 68 4.8.3 Step 3: Simulation ...................................................................................................... 69 4.9 Final Reductions ........................................................................................................................ 69 4.9.1 Distributional Groups ................................................................................................. 71 4.9.2 Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 75 ii Total Maximum Daily Load Chicago, Cook County, Illinois – 29 Segments 5. Implementation and Monitoring Recommendations ............................................................................ 79 5.1 Implementation Plan .................................................................................................................. 79 5.1.1 Description of BMPs .................................................................................................. 80 5.1.2 Management Strategy ................................................................................................. 86 5.1.3 Implementation ........................................................................................................... 93 5.1.4 Funding Opportunities ................................................................................................ 93 5.2 Reasonable Assurance .............................................................................................................. 94 5.3 Monitoring Recommendations to Track TMDL Effectiveness ................................................ 99 6. Public Participation .............................................................................................................................. 99 References ................................................................................................................................................. 100 Appendix I: Load Reduction Calculation Methods .................................................................................. 105 A.1 Step 1: Exploratory Data Analysis – Response Variable ......................................... 105 A.2 Step 2: Exploratory Data Analysis: Predictor Variables .......................................... 106 A.3 Step 3: Initial Model Fitting ..................................................................................... 106 A.4 Step 4: Simulation for Load Reduction .................................................................... 108 References ................................................................................................................................................. 109 List of Figures 2-1. Northern Impaired Segments within Chicago, Cook County, Illinois ............................................. 7 2-2. Southern Impaired Segments within Chicago, Cook County, Illinois ............................................. 8 2-3. Rogers Park Beaches and Drainage Catchments ........................................................................... 10 2-4. Leone, Loyola, and Hartigan Beaches and Drainage Catchments. ................................................ 14 2-5. Northern Lincoln Park Impaired Segments and Drainage Catchments ......................................... 18 2-6. Southern Lincoln Park Impaired Segments and Drainage Catchments ......................................... 19 2-7. Downtown Chicago Impaired Segments and Drainage Catchments ............................................. 24 2-8. Near South Impaired Segments and Drainage Catchments ........................................................... 27 2-9. Jackson Park Beaches and

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