***CUBA CASE NEG **A2: SUGAR ADV A2: CUBA PRODUCING ETHANOL A2: CUBAL ETHANOL WILL SOLVE OIL DDEPENDENCE Cuban ethanol won’t solve oil dependence Siegel 08. Jeff Siegel, he managing editor of Energy and Capital and contributing analyst for the Energy Investor, an independent investment research service that focuses primarily on stocks in the oil & gas, modern energy and infrastructure markets. . "Cuban Sugar Cane Ethanol". Energy and Capital. February 22nd, 2008. Accessed online at: www.energyandcapital.com/articles/cuba- sugar+cane-ethanol/625 Still, it's anybody's guess how this will turn out. And even if Cuba becomes the next big ethanol player, it doesn't change the fact that ethanol is not going to provide much more than about a 10% displacement once the Renewable Fuel Standard in the U.S. is met. A2: CUBA SOLVES FOR SUGAR ETHANOL Cuba can’t and won’t produce sugar ethanol Frank 08. Marc Frank, contributer to google news, reuters, and MSNBC . "Cuban ethanol boom doubtful after Castro exit". Reuters. February 22nd, 2008. Accesed online at: www.reuters.com/article/2008/02/22/cuba-castro-ethanol- idUSN2261316320080222 "It is inconceivable while Fidel is still alive that his brother Raul, or anyone else, would convert a significant proportion of our sugar crop or vacant land to ethanol," the economist said, asking not to be identified. "Even after Fidel dies, I can't imagine that happening for quite some time," he said. Currently, ethanol is obtained from sugar cane juice and cannot be made from , but new research is focusing on cellulose technology that could make this possible. Cuba was once the world's largest sugar exporter. In 1990, it produced 8 million tonnes of raw sugar. But the fall of the Soviet Union, low prices and bad management left the industry in ruins. The 2006-2007 harvest was just 1.2 million tonnes. Sugar is no longer a major export earner and Cuba, in fact, has been importing about 200,000 tonnes a year of low grade whites to cover domestic consumption. Ronald Soligo, an energy economist at University in Houston, said Cuba could produce about 1.6 billion gallons of ethanol annually if it returned to sugar cane yields prevalent when the Soviet Union was buying its sugar at inflated prices. At that time, in the 1980s, yields were 55 tons per hectare, but have fallen to 22 tons, he said in Miami at a Florida International University conference on Cuba. "It appears that sugar cane ethanol really is an opportunity for Cuba to supplement, replace some of its imported fuel and maybe even to export ethanol," he said. Some experts believe Cuba could become the world's third ethanol producer after the United States and Brazil, but that would require huge investments, not just to improve its cane harvests, but also to finance the research and construction of distilleries. The government, however, has been reluctant to allow foreign companies to administer farms, a precondition for any business wanting to invest in agriculture in Cuba. Cuba doesn’t have the capacity for new ethanol production Patino 09. Christian Santiago Patino, Studied at georgetown University . "The Cuban Sugar Dilemma: The Prospect for a Green Future". ASCE 2009. Accessed online at: www.ascecuba.org/publications/proceedings/volume19/pdfs/patino.pdf But for Cuba to produce ethanol at an international scale it must acquire the needed technology—at the moment the few Cuban distilleries that could potentially be converted into ethanol factories are small and their capacity is limited to a trivial volume of 84 million gallons a year.4 Given that the Cuban regime does not have the capital to finance the development of the ethanol sector, capital will have to be injected from the outside and as investor asses their risks they will evaluate the backward and forward linkages of the Cuban sector as well as trends in the world demand for ethanol. STATUS QUO SOLVES Status quo solves Cuban sugar production Israel 12. Esteban Israel, Reuters Sao Paulo correspondent . "Brazil to breathe life into faded Cuban sugar sector". Reuters. January 30th, 2012. Accessed online at: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/30/brazil-cuba-sugar- idAFL2E8CUA7620120130 Brazilian builder Odebrecht plans to produce sugar in Cuba, the company said on Monday, as looser restrictions on foreign investment in the communist island raise hopes of a recovery in the once-booming sector after decades of decline. News of the project came on the day Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff begins a mostly ceremonial official visit to the country, which has been under communist rule since the Fidel Castro-led revolution and an ensuing U.S. trade embargo. Odebrecht will sign a "contract of productive administration" with Cuba's state sugar company Grupo de Administracion Empresarial del Azucar to operate the 5 de Septiembre mill in Cienfuegos province on the south coast. "The agreement for a period of 10 years aims for an incremental increase in the production of sugar and crushing capacity and help with an overhaul" of the sector, Odebrecht said in an email to Reuters through its press office. The project will finally open the capital-starved Cuban sugar industry to foreign inflows after years of failed attempts by overseas investors to gain a foothold in the sector nationalized several years after the 1959 revolution. Cuba's sugar production has fallen from a peak of 8 million tonnes in 1970 to just 1.2 million tonnes in the last harvest. The country was once the world's top sugar supplier. Odebrecht gave no further details but a Brazilian sugar sector executive told Reuters the contract could be signed this week during Rousseff's two-day visit, deepening Brazil's role in modernizing the island's dilapidated infrastructure. Brazil is not only the world's top sugar producer but a pioneer in cane-derived ethanol, with flex- fuel technology fitted to almost all new cars sold in the country enabling them to run on ethanol or or any mix of both. Odebrecht is also carrying out work estimated at $800 million to modernize the container port at Mariel, west of Havana. The project, largely financed by Brazil's development bank BNDES, is seen as vital for commerce should the United States lift its trade embargo with the island. Cuba has allowed foreign investment for more than a decade to develop other strategic industries including tourism and more recently, oil, with a consortium led by Spain's Repsol to explore Cuban waters in the Gulf of Mexico. ETHANOL ON AGENDA Cuba, where sugar once accounted for 90 percent of export earnings compared with under 5 percent last year, has drawn up plans to reorganize the industry and allow foreign investment for the first time since mills were nationalized. Its once-powerful Sugar Ministry was abolished last year, leaving it up to a new state-owned company to revamp the rusting industry, with many mills pre-dating the revolution and some built with capital provided by the Soviet Union. Odebrecht would also produce ethanol from sugarcane as well as electricity from the biomass that is left over when the cane is crushed, according to the Brazilian sugar industry executive who is familiar with the details of the project. "Cuba is opening up the possibility of producing ethanol through energy generation and Odebrecht will build a distillery there," the executive said, adding the project is similar to one Odebrecht is developing in Angola. That is a $258 million undertaking in partnership with Angola's Sonagol oil company to produce 260,000 tonnes of sugar, 30 million liters of ethanol and 45 megawatts of electricity. Large-scale ethanol production in Cuba has come up against opposition from former president Castro, a fierce critic of the use of edible crops as fuel. Some experts believe that with sufficient investment, Cuba has the potential to become the world's No. 3 biofuel producer after the United States and Brazil. Ron Soligo, economist at Rice University in Houston, Texas, and an expert on the Cuban sugar industry, calculates that the island could achieve ethanol output of 7.5 billion liters per year. Brazil, by comparison, produces roughly 20 billion liters. "But developing the ethanol sector in Cuba will take time, since most of the (cane-growing) land was abandoned for years," he said. Brazil, the world's No. 2 ethanol producer, has offered technical assistance to Cuba to produce the biofuel from cane. "The subject is on the table. There are investments planned in sugar and there exists a possibility that at some time this will be taken on board by the ethanol industry," a source at Brazil's foreign ministry told Reuters. ENVIORNMENT HEALTH Sugar harvesting causes thousands of deaths via kidney failure Cernansky 11 Rachel Cernansky, freelance journalist, a master's degree in journalism from Columbia University.. "What Our Sugar & Ethanol Habits are doing to central american workers". Treehugger. December 12th, 2011. accessed online at: www.treehugger.com/health/what-our-sugar-ethanol-habits-doing-central- american-workers.html There's an epidemic of kidney failure in Central America afflicting men who work the sugarcane fields that supply the U.S. with sugar, to feed both our sweet tooth and demand for ethanol. The International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) takes an important and in- depth look at how chronic kidney disease (CKD) is affecting manual laborers in six countries along Central America’s Pacific coast. The Deadly Problem The ICIJ analysis of World Health Organization data shows that kidney failure killed more than 2,800 men in Central America every year between 2005 and 2009. More men are now dying in Nicaragua and El Salvador from CKD than from HIV/AIDS, diabetes and leukemia combined. Researchers are still studying what's driving the explosive rates of this disease, but signs are pointing to the conditions that these workers face on a daily basis. From ICIJ: Some scientists suspect that exposure to an unknown toxin, potentially on the job, may trigger onset of the disease. Researchers agree that dehydration and heat stress from strenuous labor are likely contributing factors — and they may even be causing the illness. Laborers, typically paid not by the hour or day but based on the amount they harvest, often work to the point of severe dehydration or collapse, potentially harming their kidneys with each shift. SUGARCANE=G.W. SugarCane burning causes global warming Ribeiro 08 Helena Ribeiro, Supported by the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development, “Sugar cane burning in Brazil: respiratory health effects”, Revista de Saúde Pública February 29th, 2008 Accessed online at: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?pid=S0034- 89102008000200026&script=sci_arttext&tlng=en Despite their restrictions and cautious conclusions, the studies analyzed indicate health risks in adverse atmospheric conditions, caused by sugarcane burning. These risks can be higher among children, elderly people and asthmatics, mainly resulting in higher demand for health care. Until recently, studies on sugarcane were mostly concerned about workers in the productive process, such as Phoolchund's investigation20 (1991), which showed that sugarcane cutters were at higher risk of lung cancer as a consequence of foliage burning. As the global environmental crisis worsened and people became more aware of this issue, especially as regards climate changes resulting from polluting human activities, there has been an increase in biofuel production. Among these fuels, sugarcane is the fastest-growing one. However, its burning has increasingly been opposed by public opinion, allegedly due to its environmental and human health impact, even though Brazilian health organs have had little participation in this discussion. In the state of São Paulo, due to the environmentalists' pressure, the law that foresees gradual elimination of fire utilization to facilitate sugarcane cutting, until 2021 for mechanized areas, and until 2031 for non-mechanized areas, was approved in 2002. The few studies on the effects of sugarcane burning hint at the health impacts on the general population, though many questions are still left unresolved. On the other hand, research on the health effects of biomass burning, especially as regards uncontrolled forest fires (Ribeiro & Assunção21 2002), may help to define a health policy for this issue and guide future research. Frankenberg et al8 (2005) concluded that individuals exposed to biomass smoke experienced more difficulty in their daily activities, even though general and respiratory health effects were more difficult to interpret. Kunii et al12 (2002), while assessing the effects of Indonesian forest fires, including interviews and pulmonary function tests in 54 people, verified that more than 90% presented with respiratory symptoms and that elderly people suffered severe deterioration of their health condition. By means of multivariate analysis, the study showed that gender, history of asthma and frequency of mask use were associated with the severity of the respiratory problem. Negative effects of Indonesian fires were also assessed in the Malaysian population (Sastry25 2002). Mott et al18(2005) investigated the exposure effects on the cardio-respiratory health of hospitalized people in the Kuching region, in Malaysia. The authors selected admissions from 1995 to 1998 to verify if hospitalizations during or after fires in neighboring countries exceeded the predicted number of hospitalizations, in accordance with historical records. There was statistically significant increase in the number of hospitalizations due to respiratory diseases, especially asthma and chronic obstructive diseases. Survival analysis indicated that people over 65 years of age, who had been previously hospitalized for any reason, with any respiratory, cardio-respiratory, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, were more likely to be hospitalized again after the burning period. These cited articles reveal the relationship between non-localized, cross-border pollution caused by biomass burning and the vulnerability of some specific groups of the population, especially elderly people and those who suffer from any of the foregoing diseases. According to Sapkota et al24(2005), in addition to affecting neighboring communities, pollution originated from forest fires can travel thousands of miles to heavily populated urban areas. Fire effects in Canada resulted in a high concentration episode (up to 30 times higher) of particulate matter, especially finer one, in the city of Baltimore, in the United States. In 2003, forest fire smoke in Siberia was tracked by means of airplane and ground observations, thus indicating their transportation to North America. This caused an increase in background pollution in Alaska, Canada and the northeast Pacific Ocean by 23-37 ppbv of carbon monoxide and 5–9 ppbv of ozone. This increase in background ozone contributed to the air quality standard for ozone being exceeded in the northeast Pacific Ocean. According to the authors, regional air quality and health are connected to global atmospheric processes (Jaffe et al112004). Similarly, research has pointed to the effects of sugarcane burning on a regional scale. Nonetheless, as this burning may have greater spatial influence, the size of the population under the risk of health effects would be larger. According to Jacobson10(2004), the elimination of particles originated from burning may cause an increase in atmospheric temperature in the short run, and cooling of the climate in the long run due to elimination of carbon dioxide. Analytically, biomass burning always leads to carbon dioxide accumulating, even when vegetation recovery and sprouting cycles are equivalent to emission flows. Thus, Jacobson concluded that biomass energy is only partly renewable, because its burning contributes to global warming. Sugarcane causes more global warming and requires more fertilizer CEO 09. Corporate Europe Observatory. "Sugar Cane Ethanol - Not so sweet". February 11th, 2009. Accessed online at: corporateeurope.org/news/sugar-cane- ethanol-not-so-sweet Sugarcane is grown as a monocrop, predominantly in southern and central Brazil as well as in parts of Asia and Africa. It relies on heavy quantities of inputs, particularly fertilizer. Harvesting is often done by hand, and working conditions are notoriously harsh. A number of studies in Brazil have shown that demand for land for sugarcane is leading to the conversion of grasslands and wooded savannah for crops, releasing stored carbon dioxide, and displacing previous users like cattle farmers who move into tropical forests. One recent study has estimated that, if of the effect of land conversion was taken into account, it would take sugar cane ethanol sourced from previously wooded Cerrado lands in Central Brazil 17 years to repay its climate debt - that means that for those 17 years, the level of greenhouse gases emitted because of land conversion will be higher than the emissions from burning fossil fuels. Given the rate at which sugarcane depletes the soil, there is no guarantee that converted land will still be supporting sugarcane in 17 years time - this carbon debt may in fact never be paid.[2] Sugarcane also has devastating effects on biodiversity - with the Cerrado savannah of Central Brazil, where sugarcane is grown, being one of the world's most biodiverse and also most threatened habitats. Sugarcane expansion is also affecting Brazil's Atlantic Forest, and indirectly the Amazon, as cattle farmers move into the forest in the search for new pasture. Sugarcane expansion is leading to land conflicts, as rural communities are forced off land to make way for the plantations. Small-scale farming has become unviable in the plantation areas and many small farmers feel they have no financial choice but to sell up.[3] Sugar plantations are displacing small farms, food crops and subsistence food systems - leading to food shortages and price rises.[4] In a report by Maria Luisa Mendonca, farmer Gaudino Correia explains the problems with leasing out the land. "The contracts are for 12 years, and after that the sugarcane has destroyed everything. The mill uses heavy machines to prepare the land, and it causes soil erosion. They burn sugarcane, and the ashes spread throughout the region. I did not want to lease out my land, and now I'm surrounded by sugarcane. Here there is no more land for farming, and therefore food prices have risen a lot. My neighbours have stopped producing corn, beans, coffee, and milk, and leased out their lands. I still plant corn, beans, and produce milk, but for small producers the price did not increase, only for the middleman and for consumers."[5] Indigenous leaders say that their traditional lands are being taken for plantations, despite a programme to recognise indigenous territories.[6] The Fact Finding Mission of NGOs to Brazil, organised by the organisation FIAN in spring 2008, found that "..the process of expansion of sugar cane plantations has postponed the demarcation of indigenous lands in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, further worsening the violations of the right to land and food of indigenous peoples, particularly the Guarani Kaiow�, are subjected to."[7] Working conditions on the plantations are harsh, with poor accommodation and food, little health care and in some remote areas effective imprisonment. There are reports of workers dying because of overwork, of plantations using slave labour and child labour at harvest time.[8] The heavy reliance on nitrogen fertilisers adds to sugarcane's climate impacts and results in water pollution, leading to eutrophication of coastal waters and estuaries. Pesticides also increase the pollution, building up in rivers and streams. Sugarcane cultivation damages the soil, depleting the nutrients and leading to erosion. Burning of sugarcane fields is widespread, causing damage to the soil, adding to greenhouse gas emissions as well as causing serious problems for the local population including respiratory diseases related to smoke and ash, fire risk, heat, air pollution.[9] Furthermore, for every litre of ethanol, 10-13 litres of a residue called vinhoto or stillage are produced. At least 170 billion litres of stillage are deposited in Brazil's sugar growing regions, contaminating rivers and groundwater.[10] STATUS QUO SOLVES Squo solves- the U.S. is getting sugarcane ethanol from brazil Minnesota Farm Guide 13 Minnesota Farm Guide "U.S. policies should not favor sugarcane ethanol over corn ethanol". February 22nd, 2013. Accessed online at: www.minnesotafarmguide.com/news/opinion/u-s-policies-should-not-favor- sugarcane-ethanol-over-corn/article_c142cf2a-7d05-11e2-8840- 0019bb2963f4.htmlsquo solves Biofuels are being gradually ramped up in the U.S. fuel supply – from 13 billion gallons in 2011 to 36 billion gallons in 2022. The 2013 proposals, however, contain a loophole that favors Brazil’s sugarcane ethanol production over corn ethanol production. The loophole was formed, because the EPA has set 2013 biofuel production numbers that could be difficult to meet. For 2013, the EPA is proposing to set the standard for cellulosic biofuel at 14 million gallons. In addition, the agency proposes biomass-based diesel at 1.28 billion gallons, advanced biofuel at 2.75 billion gallons and total renewable fuels at 16.55 billion gallons. The agency is proposing to blend 1.35 billion gallons of renewable fuel in 2013 vs. the amount mandated for 2012. If U.S. industries can’t make the amount of expected biofuel in various categories, then any qualifying advanced biofuel can be used as a source. There are currently three qualifying advanced biofuels – , waste-derived ethanol or sugarcane ethanol. Currently, corn ethanol does not qualify for the advanced biofuel pool. In 2012, Brazil’s sugarcane ethanol imports accounted for 92 percent of the 2012 U.S. advanced biofuel standard. Sugarcane ethanol enthusiasts expect to produce 21 billion gallons of the fuel supply in the U.S. by 2022, according to sugarcane.org. In other words, the sugarcane industry expects to supply 58 percent of the U.S. Renewable Fuels Standard in 2022 – just nine years away, according to sugarcane.org. Total imports of sugarcane ethanol from January through May 2012 were 43 million gallons, but increased to 235 million gallons from June through September 2012. The increase occurred because sugarcane ethanol is the least-cost blending alternative to meet the advanced RFS biofuel mandate, according to farmdocdaily.illinois.edu. DEFORESTATION Brazilian Sugar Ethanol does not cause deforestation LOUISE LOFTUS, of The International Herald Tribune, October 12, 2010. U.S. is feeling the heat over ethanol subsidies; Brazil and other countries want Washington to open market, but industry warns of job losses, Lexis-Nexis There is broad consensus that ethanol from sugar cane, which is fermented and distilled from the crushed cane waste after the sugar has been extracted, does not have the same impact on food production as ethanol from corn, since producers do not have to choose between producing food or fuel. And it is one of the most environmentally friendly of the first-generation biofuels, in terms of its carbon dioxide emissions, in production and use .¶ Mr. Desplechin added that sugar cane was not to blame for deforestation. Sugar cane for ethanol occupies 1.5 percent of Brazil's arable land, while the area for livestock pasture represents almost 50 percent.¶ Sugar cane- based ethanol has been produced in Brazil since the 1970s, when, after an oil crisis, the Brazilian government introduced a subsidy to encourage carmakers to start producing large numbers of ethanol-powered cars, fostering the creation of a nationwide distribution network.¶ The industry has developed more strongly since 2003 with the introduction of ''flex-fuel'' engines that can run on ethanol, gasoline - which in Brazil is 25 percent ethanol - or any blend of the two.¶ There are about 10 million flex- fuel cars on Brazilian roads, and they account for about 90 percent of new car sales. Ethanol meets about half of Brazil's fuel needs. ''In Brazil, gasoline is the alternative fuel for cars,'' said Mr. Desplechin.¶ Over all, a sixth of the country's total energy needs are met by sugar cane. According to Unica, this shift has reduced carbon emissions by more than 600 million tons since the mid-1970s. SOIL DEGRADATION Sugarcane production causes soil degradation Zuurbier and Vooren. 2008 Peter Zuurbier and Jos Van De Vooren. "Contributions to Climate Change Mitigation and the Environment." Sugarcane Ethanol. Wageningen Academic P U B L I S H E R S, 2008. Web. 6 July 2013. . Soil degradation through erosion and compaction are also considered a problem in sugarcane fields, which are under intense mechanization during soil cultivation and harvesting (Martinelli and Filoso, 2008). Soil compaction is a consequence of the traffic of heavy machinery in conjunction with the lack of implementation of best management cultivation practices (Naseri et al., 2007). Compaction exacerbates erosion problems because soil porosity is reduced, which decreases water infiltration and increases runoff_ (Oliveira et al., 1995; Martinelli and Filoso 2008). The main periods when soil remains bare and subjected to erosive forces by rain and winds are (1) during the process of land conversion, (2) between crop harvesting and subsequent canopy closure, and (3) during re- planting of sugarcane fields every 5-6 years. !e conversion of natural vegetation and extensive pastures (which are less intensively managed) into sugarcane increases the risk soil degradation (Politano and Pissarra, 2005). Erosion rates of 30 Mg of soil/ha.year were estimated for sugarcane $elds in the São Paulo State in comparison with less than 2 Mg/ha.year for pastures and other natural vegetation (Sparovek and Schnug, 2001). Soil erosion in poorly managed sugarcane areas also causes sediment deposition into water reservoirs, wetlands, streams and rivers (Politano and Pissarra, 2005). !is is aggravated by the transport of fertilizer and agro-chemical residues that directly compromise water quality (Corbi et al., 2006).

Ethanol production in Brazil is drastically harming the environment Hearn, 2007 Kelly. "Ethanol Production Could Be Eco-Disaster, Brazil's Critics Say." National Geographic. National Geographic Society, 8 Feb. 2007. Web. 06 July 2013. . In Brazil ethanol has become economically competitive with gasoline, and the country's biofuels program could serve as a world model for producing sustainable energy, officials say. South America's largest country is the world's reigning ethanol king, producing 4.4 billion gallons (16.5 billion liters) of the biofuel from sugarcane each year, on average. Biofuel is widely considered a way to reduce greenhouse gases from fossil fuel use and thereby reduce human-caused global warming. Brazil's sugarcane- based ethanol program is "appropriate for replication in many countries," writes José Goldemberg, secretary of the environment for the Brazilian state of São Paulo, in a perspective article in this week's issue of the journal Science. But an unregulated biofuels boom in Brazil could mean bust for the Amazon rain forest and a vast savanna ecosystem known as the Cerrado, environmentalists warn. Expanding large-scale agriculture to grow sugarcane, critics say, will worsen the loss of species diversity, water-quality problems, and habitat fragmentation in some of the world's most biologically diverse regions. "The primary concern is that the biofuels push will directly or indirectly increase the loss to Brazil's remaining natural high biodiversity areas, such as the Cerrado," said John Buchanan, a senior director for the U.S.-based nonprofit Conservation International. The 740,100-square-mile (1.9-million-square-kilometer) Cerrado region is South America's largest savanna—one of the richest in the world, in terms of bird, reptile, fish, and insect species. According to a study published last year in the journal Conservation Biology, more than 50 percent of the Cerrado has already been transformed into pastureland, causing soil erosion, biodiversity loss, fragmentation, and the spread of nonnative grasses. "Most of the expansion required will affect the Cerrado ecosystem and the Amazon, which are already being destroyed because of cattle ranching and farming," said Leonardo Lacerda of the Brazilian chapter of the international conservation group WWF. Of Brazil's 2 million acres (850 million hectares) of land, about 1,400 acres (550 hectares) contain native forests, two-thirds of which are in the Amazon. Sugarcane is not well suited for rain forest climates, Lacerda said, and the government is deliberately avoiding the expansion of sugarcane farms in the region. But, he said, there is concern that higher-priced crops like sugarcane will displace soy and cattle farming in the Cerrado— driving those operations into the forests, which would have to be flattened to make way for the farms. "This displacement effect is not hypothetical," Lacerda added. "São Paulo used to be one of the most important cattle regions in Brazil. Now sugarcane has replaced it and pushed cattle to other places in the Cerrado and Amazon." A more direct worry for the Amazon is palm trees grown for their nuts' oil—another source of biological energy, Lacerda said. "The potential to convert Amazon habitat in order to produce is huge," he said, noting that palm plantations have been among the biggest causes of the devastation of the rain forest in the Southeast Asian islands of Borneo and Sumatra. "We want the government to have a plan for the displacement effect that sugarcane plantations will cause and for the arrival of palm cultivation in these areas." LAND USE Land-use changes means that sugarcane raises food prices and releases more carbon Grunwald 08 Michael Grunwald, journalist, “The Clean Energy Scam,” TIME, March 27th, 2008. Accessed online at: www.globalpolicy.org/socecon/envronmt/climate/2008/0327scam.htm, accessed 5-20-08. The environmental cost of this cropland creep is now becoming apparent. One groundbreaking new study in Science concluded that when this deforestation effect is taken into account, corn ethanol and soy biodiesel produce about twice the emissions of gasoline. Sugarcane ethanol is much cleaner, and biofuels created from waste products that don't gobble up land have real potential, but even increases overall emissions when its plant source is grown on good cropland. "People don't want to believe renewable fuels could be bad," says the lead author, Tim Searchinger, a Princeton scholar and former Environmental Defense attorney. "But when you realize we're tearing down rain forests that store loads of carbon to grow crops that store much less carbon, it becomes obvious." The growing backlash against biofuels is a product of the law of unintended consequences. It may seem obvious now that when biofuels increase demand for crops, prices will rise and farms will expand into nature. But biofuel technology began on a small scale, and grain surpluses were common. Any ripples were inconsequential. When the scale becomes global, the outcome is entirely different, which is causing cheerleaders for biofuels to recalibrate. "We're all looking at the numbers in an entirely new way," says the Natural Resources Defense Council's Nathanael Greene, whose optimistic "Growing Energy" report in 2004 helped galvanize support for biofuels among green groups.

Ethanol production may require more land use Zuurbier and Vooren. 2008 Peter Zuurbier and Jos Van De Vooren. "Contributions to Climate Change Mitigation and the Environment." Sugarcane Ethanol. Wageningen Academic P U B L I S H E R S, 2008. Web. 6 July 2013. . The third issue is the impact of new technologies on the efficiency of biomass for biofuels and the conversion of biomass for ethanol. Here the assumption is that new technologies may provide not only higher efficiency, but also the need for larger scale of operations, asking more land to be cleared for ethanol with possible negative environmental effects (Faaij, 2006). Fourth, the public policies may have positive effects on balanced growth of the ethanol industry. However, these policies may also contribute to numerous distortions in trade, consumption, supply and technology development and on the environment as well (Hertel et al., 2008). Sugarcane production land use can cause impacts on biodiversity Zuurbier and Vooren. 2008 Peter Zuurbier and Jos Van De Vooren. "Contributions to Climate Change Mitigation and the Environment." Sugarcane Ethanol. Wageningen Academic P U B L I S H E R S, 2008. Web. 6 July 2013. . The first one is impact of sugarcane production on land use change and climate. Here the assumption is made that land use for sugarcane implies serious impacts on the carbon stock, GHG emissions, and water and soil conditions. (Macedo et al., 2004). Also, the reallocation of land or land cleared for ethanol may have unforeseen impacts on biodiversity. The main question here is, can production of sugarcane ethanol be sustainable? POLLUTION AIR Sugar cane burning causes air pollution. Goldemberg 08 Jose´ Goldemberg , Suani Teixeira Coelho, Patricia Guardabassi CENBIO—The Brazilian Reference Center on Biomass, IEE—Institute of Eletrotechnics and Energy, USP—University of Sa˜o Paulo, Sa˜o Paulo, Brazil. "The sustainability of ethanol production from sugarcane". Energy Policy 2008. Accessed online at: cenbio.iee.usp.br/download/publicacoes/JEPO2750.pdf However, existing studies did not report a direct relationship between cane burning and damage to health (Smeets et al., 2006). On the other hand, studies performed in Brazil by the University of Sao Paulo Medical School led to the conclusions that air pollution from biomass burning causes damage to the respiratory system, increasing respiratory diseases and hospital admissions . Children and elderly are the most affected, and the effect is similar to people exposed to industrial and vehicle emissions in urban areas (Canc-ado et al., 2006). Results also show that health effects are determined not just by high pollution levels but also by the length of time exposure (Bates and Koenig, 2003) Burning sugarcane field creates air pollution Tsao, 2011 Chi-Chung. "Study Shows Sugarcane Ethanol Production Causes Air Pollution." University of California, Merced. UC Merced, 15 Dec. 2011. Web. 06 July 2013. . The burning of sugarcane fields prior to harvest for ethanol production can create air pollution that detracts from the biofuel’s overall sustainability, according to research published recently by a team of researchers led by scientists at the University of California, Merced. UC Merced graduate student Chi-Chung Tsao was the lead author on the paper and was aided in the study by UC Merced professors Elliott Campbell and Yihsu Chen. The study — published online this week in the Nature Climate Change journal — focused on Brazil, the world’s top producer of sugarcane ethanol and a possible source for U.S. imports of the alternative fuel.“There is a big strategic decision our country and others are making, in whether to develop a domestic biofuels industry or import relatively inexpensive biofuels from developing countries,” Campbell said. “Our study shows that importing biofuels could result in human health and environmental problems in the regions where they are cultivated.” Ethanol is seen as an alternative to fossil fuels, which emit greenhouse gasses when used and are a major contributor to air pollution and climate change. But despite some governments encouraging farmers to reduce field burning — which is done in part to protect farmworkers by removing sharp leaves and harmful animals — more than half of sugarcane croplands in Brazil continue to be burned. A new UC Merced study shows the burning of sugarcane crops prior to harvest for ethanol production can cause significant air pollution . That leads to a reduction in air quality that can offset the benefits of ethanol over petroleum fuels that emit more greenhouse gases during their use, something Campbell said the U.S. should consider when determining whether to import inexpensive ethanol from Brazil or continuing to invest in domestic corn ethanol production. Unlike petroleum production, the potential to produce biofuels is relatively evenly distributed across many countries, and this is a big plus from an perspective,” Campbell said. “However, agriculture practices in some regions result in biofuels that lead to even more intense air pollution than petroleum.” Satellites are currently used to measure air pollution in Brazil, but the study shows actual pollution caused by sugarcane field burning could be four times greater than satellite estimates. The researchers believe this is due to the relatively small scale of individual fires. Other researchers involved in the study were Scott Spak and Greg Carmichael of the University of Iowa and Marcelo Mena-Carrasco of the Universidad Andres Belo in Chile. WATER Sugarcane production causes water pollution Zuurbier and Vooren. 2008 Peter Zuurbier and Jos Van De Vooren. "Contributions to Climate Change Mitigation and the Environment." Sugarcane Ethanol. Wageningen Academic P U B L I S H E R S, 2008. Web. 6 July 2013. . Water pollution has been a severe environmental problem in sugarcane production regions until early 80’s in Brazil when legislation was implemented to ban direct discharge of vinasse (Martinelli and Filoso, 2008; Smeets et al., 2008). The main industrial sources of pollutants of sugarcane industry are wastewater from washing of stems before processing and vinasse produced during distillation. These by-products have a large potential of water contamination due to a high concentration of organic matter, which increases the biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5) of water bodies receiving such effluents (Gunkel et al., 2007). While the Brazilian standards for wastewater emission are BOD5 of 60 mg/l, values for wastewater from cane washing are up to 500 mg/l and > 1.000 mg/l for vinasse (Gunkel et al., 2007; Smeets et al., 2008). In addition, agro-chemicals residues have been found as a important component of water pollution in areas of intense sugarcane production (Corbi et al., 2006; Silva et al., 2008). FOOD PRICES DON’T INCREASE FOOD PRICES Corn ethanol does not increase food prices Bob Dinneen, of the Houston Chronicle, July 2, 2013. Clean-burning biofuels can give us true independence www.chron.com/opinion/outlook/article/Clean-burning-biofuels-can-give-us- true-4643503.php US ethanol production uses only 3 percent of global grain supplies. Ethanol producers generated 37 million metric tons of livestock feed in 2012 - enough to produce seven quarter-pound hamburger patties for everyone on the planet. Ethanol hasn't increased food prices, either. Only 14 percent of the average household's food budge goes toward raw agricultural ingredients such as corn, while 86 percent pays for energy, transportation and supply chain costs.

Expansion of Sugarcane areas will threaten Zuurbier and Vooren. 2008 Peter Zuurbier and Jos Van De Vooren. "Contributions to Climate Change Mitigation and the Environment." Sugarcane Ethanol. Wageningen Academic P U B L I S H E R S, 2008. Web. 6 July 2013. . A major area of concern is the threat to food security (Goldemberg et al., 2008). Rapid expansion of sugarcane areas could potentially reduce the availability of arable land for the cultivation of food and feed crops causing a reduction in their supply and increase of food prices. Fast rates of expansion of sugarcane in São Paulo state in the mid 70s at the expense of and rice cropping areas seem to have had a short-term impact on regional food supply and prices (Saint, 1982). However, the recent sugarcane expansion in São Paulo from mid 90’s has not compromised food crop production as most of the expansion intruded in pastoral lands. Sugarcane ethanol harvesting replaces food crops-turns food prices Kenfield 07 Isabella Kenfield, Latin American affairs specialist, “Brazil’s Ethanol Plan Breeds Rural Poverty, Environmental Degradation,” America’s Program. March 6, 2007 Industry, government, and mainstream media in Brazil generally argue that increasing ethanol exports will boost economic growth and sustainable rural development, while simultaneously helping to curb global warming by helping the world reduce its dependency on fossil fuels. But contrary to the "green" image evoked by industry advocates, the monoculture of sugarcane leads to massive environmental destruction. According to Melo, in Pernambuco only 2.5% of the original forest of the sugarcane region remains. In order to satisfy future global demand, Brazil will need to clear an additional 148 million acres of forest, says Eric Holt-Gimenez of the NGO FoodFirst, based in Oakland, CA. The damaging environmental effects of monocropping sugarcane are, in the São Paulo banker's mind, the most troubling aspect of the sugar-ethanol industry. He claims that the sugar takeover is "pushing other crops to the agricultural frontier." He explains that, "because sugarcane generates a high price per hectare, the regions with better climactic conditions are dominated by this crop, which results in sugarcane occupying lands that before were planted to grains and used for grazing livestock. Grain producers move to more remote regions, such as the center-west, which before were used for cattle. The result of this flux is that cattle ranchers seek new areas such as the Amazon region." Sugarcane will just make us dependent on other foreign nations Mukherjee 12. Anisha Mukherjee, . "Is Ethanol the Champion Bio-Fuel" The Triple Helix Online. July 23rd, 2012. Accessed online at: triplehelixblog.com/2012/07/is- ethanol-the-champion-bio-fuel/ The next factor of consideration is the economic impact of using ethanol on a macro level as an energy source. Corn-based ethanol is the most prevalent form of ethanol in the United States because it can be grown nationally, unlike sugarcane, which must be imported. Even though the means for synthesizing sugarcane-based ethanol is much more evolved than that of corn-based, there are heavy tariffs imposed in order to protect American farmers. Using sugarcane-based ethanol should also be avoided because it could potentially lead to a dependence on Brazil for energy, which could land the United States in a similar situation it has today with its dependence on oil-producing countries. However, shirking sugarcane imports from Brazil does not mean that the economy is not affected. Because ethanol is the latest trend in the energy sector, farmers are finding it to be more profitable to sell their corn not as a food source, but rather as an energy source. This in turn drives up the prices of food, since a large majority of the food has some form of a corn-based product in it.4 While the effect has been noticeable in the US, it has been magnified in Mexico where corn is a staple part of their diet. In addition to the fact that corn-based ethanol drives up the price of food, another factor to consider is the reality of how to partition harvests between food and energy in times of a poor harvest. This has the potential to cause either an or dramatically increase the cost of food. As a result, ethanol currently does not hold promise to be a viable and economical source of energy. – **A2: FOOD PRICES ADV F/L SOLVENCY

Alt Cause- There are multiple reasons why food prices are increasing such as energy prices, biofuel, grain stocks, population trends, commodity markets, weather, climate change, and trade policies- Aff can’t solve all of these reasons. Johnson 2013 http://www.cfr.org/food-security/food-price-volatility-insecurity/p16662 Food Price Volatility and Insecurity¶ Author: Toni Johnson¶ Barrett of Cornell University and Marc Bellemare at Duke University argue in Foreign Affairs that high prices, not volatility, are the real problem. "Throughout the world but especially in low-income countries, the poor are overwhelmingly net food consumers, while farmers are generally better-off net sellers," they contend. "Rising prices hurt consumers by reducing their purchasing power but benefit producers by increasing their profits." ¶ Some contributors to high prices and volatility include: ¶ Energy Prices and Biofuels. Oil prices have experienced record highs in the last five years. Fuel is used in several aspects of the agricultural production process, including fertilization, processing, and transportation and is an important factor in agricultural output and product price. According to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the U.S. farm industry's total expenditures on fuel and oil rose 23 percent between 2009 and 2011. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said that "if oil prices keep going up as they have recently, that could have a greater impact on food costs than what's associated with what's going on with the drought." The OECD estimates that the slowdown in agriculture production in the next decade will primarily come from higher fuel and fertilizer costs.¶ The world has experienced a major growth in biofuel production, in part due to higher fuel prices, particularly in the United States. However, s ome argue that biofuel compete with food production and negatively impact prices. U.S. increases in corn production have largely gone to ethanol rather than to human consumption or animal feed. Corn-based ethanol rose from 15 percent of total U.S. corn production in 2006 to an estimated 40 percent in 2012. The 2011 NGO report recommends G20 countries end biofuel mandates and subsidies (PDF) and open "international markets so that renewable fuels and feed stocks can be produced where it is economically, environmentally, and socially feasible to do so."¶ Grain Stocks. Increased use of grains to meet the demand for meat and biofuels has largely contributed to a major increase in cereals demand (PDF), writes Brian D. Wright at the International Food and Agriculture Trade Policy Council. Grain reserves--carryover supplies that can provide a cushion for market fluctuations and seen as an indicator of market tightness--have declined significantly, falling from a roughly 110-day supply before 2000 to a 64- day supply in 2007-2008. Global stocks are expected to continue to fall in 2013, with corn stocks predicted to fall to a nine-year low. Wright notes that low stocks contribute to the kind of price shocks seen in 2008 and 2010-2011. Researchers from the FAO note that "ample and highly liquid commercial stocks held by major international suppliers appear a necessary and sufficient condition to instill confidence in world markets and to lessen the probability of future bouts of extreme global volatility" (PDF). However, other analysts have dismissed stocks as an important factor in higher prices (PDF).¶ Population Trends. The growth of the middle class in developing countries has increased demand for food generally and for meat in particular, placing greater pressure on grain consumption. Meat, dairy, and oils (PDF) are expected to rise from about 20 percent of current calorie intake in developing countries to nearly 30 percent in the next forty years. Livestock feed currently represents about 55 percent of consumption (PDF) of coarse grains (corn, sorghum, and ), according to the FAO. A number of experts say the growth in meat consumption harms overall food security, since the production of one serving of meat takes more land, water, and energy than the production of a serving of corn or rice. Growing urbanization, particularly in the developing world, contributes to lifestyles that include higher consumption of meat and commercial foods (PDF). As more people leave rural areas for cities, a lack of investment in modernized farm equipment and irrigation techniques increases the burden on developing-world farmers, precisely as they dwindle in number and need to increase production capacity. ¶ Commodities Markets. Similar to the debate over oil prices, non-sector participants--like pensions and hedge funds--in the agricultural markets are considered by some to be a driver of price volatility. Critics argue that such speculation should be curbed, because food access is ultimately a humanitarian issue. Others say market speculators are reacting to uncertainty rather than driving it. "Speculators make money out of understanding and providing insurance against volatility," writes Brookings' Homi Kharas. "The volatility inherent in the food marketplace causes speculation, not the other way around." Still, a June 2011 report from Oxfam says that is it possible excessive speculation can temporarily amplify volatility (PDF) and contribute to food price bubbles. Many experts have said one way to lower uncertainty caused by commodities' trading is to increase markets' transparency and get countries to accurately report food stocks. Since commodities are pegged to the dollar, the currency-exchange rate volatility seen in recent years also has had an impact on food prices.¶ Weather and Climate Change. Disasters such as drought and flooding can cause catastrophic damage to crops. A string of recent bad weather in 2010, 2011, and 2012 and related disasters such as wildfires in some of the world's biggest food exporters have helped raise prices to record levels. Severe droughts in the summer of 2012 across the U.S. Midwest and Eastern Europe in parts of Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan have also pushed prices even higher. July saw a month-over-month increase of 25 percent in corn and prices and 10 percent in overall food commodities, figures that could go higher in 2013.¶ Climate change is forecast to spur more crop-damaging weather events (PDF) and impact water supplies and the availability of arable land, especially in the developing world. Countries in South Asia and parts of Africa, some of which have the world's fast growing populations, could lose more than 5 percent of their growing season, the FAO forecasts, placing an estimated 370 million people in jeopardy due to diminished food security. These regions already contain large populations considered chronically hungry. Experts say policies and technologies to adapt crops to climate change and increase water supplies will be needed.¶ Trade policy. Most crops do not cross national boundaries; few have international trade rates higher than 20 percent of what is grown. However, prices and export controls can disproportionately impact import-dependent countries. "[F]ood price inflation is not simply the result of supply and demand," says a June 2011 Oxfam report (PDF). "[A] more globalized food system equals a more interdependent one too--which makes the system vulnerable to zero-sum games when governments or other key players succumb to panic or herd behaviors." According to the UN's World Food Program, over forty countries in 2008 imposed some form of export ban in an effort to increase domestic food security. Many economists say hoarding, particularly in some rice-producing countries, exacerbated the 2008 food-price crisis. Following a 2010 drought and wildfires, Russia limited exports of wheat and wheat prices more than doubled, according to the World Bank.

Alt Cause- 9 different alt causes to food prices - they can’t solve them all. Odland 12 Steve Odland, Contributor¶ Commenting on Business & the Economy¶ Follow (34)¶ ENTREPRENEURS | 3/15/2012 @ 4:34PM |23,662 views¶ http://www.forbes.com/sites/steveodland/2012/03/15/why-are-food-prices-so- high/ Rising supply on constant demand causes a fall in prices while falling supply on constant demand causes prices to increase. So one could conclude that rising food prices have been caused by falling supply or increased demand. This is true, but there is a lot going on behind the scenes causing this. ¶ ¶ What’s going on? ¶ ¶ 1) China and India have the largest and fastest growing populations creating demand for food from around the world. So one impact on prices has been rising demand from these countries, especially China. ¶ ¶ 2) The Japanese tsunami and earthquake last year drove up seafood prices by nearly 6%. ¶ ¶ 3) Vegetable prices rose 50% in the past month. Crop damage in Australia, Russia, and South America are to blame. ¶ ¶ ¶ 4) Government subsidized and mandated ethanol use has increased the demand for corn and reduced acreage dedicated to food thereby pushing food prices up. A Congressional Budget Office report concluded that the increased use of ethanol accounts for 10-15% of the increase in food prices. ¶ ¶ 5) Changes in government subsidies for crops other than corn for ethanol impact food prices. ¶ ¶ 6) Regulations restricting use of herbicides, pesticides, fertilizers, etc., while positive on some fronts, may result in poorer crop yields.¶ ¶ 7) Increased oil prices drive up costs for transportation, fertilizer, plastic packaging and inks used to print packaging. ¶ ¶ 8) In some areas of the U.S., the government is paying farmers not to plant to save water. This reduces food supply. Drier and hotter weather trends in farming areas generally reduce crop yield and drive prices higher.¶ ¶ 9) Import tariffs and export taxes distort supply and demand, and hence food prices around the world.

No Solvency- Food Prices are inevitable due to population growth, No reason to change biofuel policy. Anderson 12 15 October 2012 Last updated at 19:05 ET Share this pageEmailPrint¶ ShareFacebookTwitter¶ Food price crisis: What crisis?¶ By Richard Anderson¶ Business reporter, BBC New There is also less pressure on prices from biofuels, a "big factor" in the 2008 price spikes, Mr Abbassian says, when a record high for the drove demand for alternative fuels. Corn and sugar, for example, are used extensively in biofuels - in the US, 40% of all corn production goes into making ethanol. Not only is the oil price well below those highs, but the UN says fewer crops are being diverted towards biofuels.¶ Overall, then, fears of an impending food price crisis would appear to be exaggerated.¶ "There has been a lot of talk about food prices at the UN, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, and the general feeling is we are not in the same situation we were in in 2008," says Marc Sadler, senior agriculture economist at the World Bank.¶ Continue reading the main story¶ Continue reading the main story¶ 1/7¶ But while the chance of food prices returning to levels seen in 2008 and 2011 in the coming months may be slim, they remain at historically high levels, and the underlying factors driving them are here to stay.¶ Population growth and, more importantly, the rapidly growing middle classes in the developing world, are pushing demand for grain-intensive protein ever higher, while rising energy costs are pushing up the cost of supply. High food prices, therefore, are here to stay. Long gone are the days of butter mountains and milk lakes as governments fundamentally rethink agricultural policy and cut back on subsidies to farmers. No Solvency- Cuban Sugar cane has been had serious problems lately and may close its mills. Havana Times 13 Cuba Sugar Harvest Delayed in the East¶ March 15, 2013 | Print | 0 0 0 33¶ HAVANA TIMES — The milling of sugar cane in Cuba has been hampered by the damage to refineries, transportation problems and low crop yields resulting from Hurricane Sandy, which stuck the east of the island this past October.¶ There have been “serious problems with the mills and transportation in the five eastern provinces, which are responsible for over a third of the overall national plan,” said a source “close to the industry” who asked not to be identified.¶ Other sugar-producing provinces will have to extend their milling beyond the end of April if they are to reach their goal of 1.7 million tons, though the national sugar enterprise plans to close mills by May to prevent the deterioration of crop quality resulting from excessive heat and moisture

No Solvency- Sugar production is down due to outdated factory equipment. Hanson and Lee 13 U.S.-Cuba Relations¶ Authors: Stephanie Hanson, and Brianna Lee, Senior Production Editor Updated: January 31, 2013 http://www.cfr.org/cuba/us-cuba- relations/p11113 Sugar was long the primary industry in Cuba, but production has plummeted due to outdated factory equipment. In 1989, production was more than 8 million tons, while the harvest in 2005 was only 1.3 million tons. The 2008 hurricanes damaged sugar crops in the eastern part of the country. UNIQUENESS Non Unique- We have high food prices now as the new normal and human waste is an alt cause of high food prices Iran Daily 13 http://www.iran- daily.com/1392/3/19/MainPaper/4525/Page/1/MainPaper_4525_1.pdf A quarter of all food calories grown for human consumption is ¶ being lost or wasted, either purposefully or otherwise, according ¶ to new estimates.¶ With high food prices now widely seen as a new normal even ¶ as food demand across the globe continues to rapidly expand, ¶ advocates and development experts are calling for concerted ¶ national and international action in a way that has not yet been ¶ seen, IPS reported.¶ “The world faced an analogous failure of efficiency in the ¶ 1970s with energy,” states a new working paper produced jointly ¶ by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) and the ¶ World Resources Institute (WRI), an environment and development advocacy group based.¶

Non Unique- Beef Prices have hit all time high in June. Dostal 13 http://nrn.com/commodities/restaurants-can-expect-beef-prices-keep-rising Erin Dostal covers the Southeast U.S. at Nation’s Restaurant News. She previously worked at Direct Marketing News where she covered trends in database marketing and e-commerce. Prior to moving to New York in 2011, she was a reporter at Las Vegas Sun and a launching editor of VEGAS INC, a business magazine covering the largest industries in Southern Nevada: tourism, gaming, entertainment, real estate and—of course—restaurants. She holds a journalism degree from Northwestern UniversityJun. 5, 2013 Beef prices hit an all-time high last week; topping the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s previous record set in 2003 — and prices will only continue to rise, according to commodities experts. According to be beef last week. In dollar amount, it was a record. However, when adjusted for inflation, the price was hardly a record, said Richard Volpe, a research economist for the food economics division of the USDA.

IMPACT No Impact- Global Food prices will decrease throughout 2013 with the unexpected rise in crops and is expected to continue the trend of easing prices throughout 2014 Terazono and Bias 13 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/53360da2-d404-11e2-8639- 00144feab7de.html#axzz2YJYiyzDZJune 13, 2013 10:11 am¶ Record crops to push grain prices lower¶ By Emiko Terazono and Javier Blas in Londo Record crop harvests are likely to force global grain prices lower this year, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization said on Thursday in its twice-yearly review of global agricultural markets.¶ Cereal prices shot up last year after the US, the world’s leading exporter of agricultural commodities, suffered the worst drought in 50 years. The price surge boosted food inflation in emerging countries, including China.¶ Crops lead the field for commodities¶ Comment Agribusiness M&A spreads to smaller groups¶ Traders rethink single-serve coffee boost¶ Drought drives soyabean futures to record¶ IN COMMODITIES¶ Egypt crisis sends crude sharply higher¶ Metals pricing under threat from warehousing rule change¶ Oil eases back as Egypt concerns fade¶ Russian oil shipments to Europe at 10-year-low¶ “It has been many years since we have been in a situation where there is confidence not only just for grains but for other basic foods,” said Abdolreza Abbassian, senior grains economist at the FAO. ¶ Nevertheless, the report cautioned that meat, fish and dairy prices would remain strong, keeping the global bill for food imports above the $1tn mark for the third year in a row. The organisation forecast the cost of food imports in 2013 at $1.09tn, up from 2012.¶ “Meat prices have remained at historically high levels since the early part of 2011,” the organisation warned. It added that the “absence of substantial growth in milk output in the principal exporting countries implies that supplies to the international market will be finely balanced until at least the latter part of 2013, indicating that the current elevated prices are likely to remain for some months”. ¶ The FAO also said that “supply constraints for several important species [of fish] are likely to keep world fish prices on the rise”. The FAO index for fish, including capture and aquaculture, set a record high in early 2013.¶ The outlook for grains – from wheat to rice, corn and oilseeds – is far more favourable than for meat, fish and milk. The FAO said early crop indications pointed to “a more comfortable world cereal supply-and-demand balance” this year. It added that “good production prospects and a likely replenishment in world stocks could pave the way for calmer markets and some easing of prices”. ¶ The size of the crops – and the price direction – is not a given, however. Wet and cold weather in Europe is already reducing the prospects for wheat output in the UK, France and Germany. The weather in July, August and September in the US Midwest farmland belt will be also key for the corn and soyabean crops there.¶ But the FAO said that favourable weather could lead to a 6.5 per cent jump in global grain production to a record 2,460m tonnes. The surge would be led by a bumper wheat harvest and a recovery in US corn output. Global demand is expected to rise a more muted 3 per cent to 2,402m tonnes.¶ The oversupply will allow global cereal inventories to increase, with the FAO forecasting stocks at a 12-year high of 569m tonnes by the end of the 2013-14 crop year, up 11 per cent from the level of the 2012-13 year. ¶ The price drop will soften food inflationary pressures in emerging markets at a critical juncture as their central banks are battling the impact of the potential end of the US Federal Reserve’s latest round of bond buying.¶ Corn, wheat and soyabean prices in Chicago, which serve as the global benchmark, have already fallen back between 27 and 14 per cent from the peaks set in mid-2012 during the drought in the US. No Impact- Global Food prices are stabilized due to record corn crop this year.- We will have excellent crops throughout 2013. Hornby 13 http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/07/us-food-fao- idUSBRE9160A220130207By Catherine Hornby ROME | Thu Feb 7, 2013 7:55am EST Global food prices surged in mid-2012 following the worst U.S. drought in more than half a century and dry weather in other key grains exporters, raising fears of a food crisis similar to the one in 2008.¶ But prices eased in the last three months of 2012 due to expectations that large South American production will replenish tight global cereals supplies.¶ On Thursday Brazil said it would produce a record 83.4 million metric tons (91.93 million tons) of this season due to unprecedented expansion in area planted after a disappointing harvest last year, and also forecast a record corn crop.¶ The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) said its food price index, which measures monthly price changes for a basket of cereals, oilseeds, dairy, meat and sugar, averaged 210 points in January, unchanged from December.¶ The Rome-based agency raised its view of world cereal output in 2012 to 2.302 billion metric tons, up 20 million metric tons from its previous forecast, but still 2 percent lower than the bumper crop in 2011.¶ Its outlook for world cereal stocks by end of season in 2013 remained unchanged at 495 million metric tons, down 3 percent from their opening level.¶ "We should be expecting excellent crops in 2013," said FAO senior economist Abdolreza Abbassian. No spillover impact- When food prices decrease, global prices don’t fall because food markets are becoming less competitive in global sector. Gardner 10 THE BENEFITS OF HIGH FOOD PRICES Posted by Brian Gardner on 13/10/10 Tags: Competition, farm prices, food prices¶ http://briangardner.blogactiv.eu/2010/10/13/the-benefits-of-high-food-prices/ THE BENEFITS OF HIGH FOOD PRICES¶ Posted by Brian Gardner on 13/10/10 ¶ Tags: Competition, farm prices, food prices Commentary on European developments from the perspective of long term professional interest in European and international agriculture and food policy, nurtured over three decades spent in Brussels observing and analysing the development of the CAP. morehttp://briangardner.blogactiv.eu/2010/10/13/the-benefits-of-high- food-prices/ With world food commodity prices rising again on the prospect of poor harvests in some of the major grain producing areas of the world, it is inevitable that the price of food in the shops will rise. What is also inevitable is that if and when supplies improve and bulk commodity prices fall again retail prices will not fall. Charting the relationship between producer prices and consumer prices over the last couple of decades illustrates one stark fact: food retail markets are becoming less and less competitive.¶ As Europe’s food shops become ever more concentrated in fewer hands so the retail industry finds it easier not to pass on raw material price reductions to the consumer. At the same time, this increasingly monolithic structure allows any increase in commodity prices, however small, to be used to jack up prices at the supermarket counter. This, despite the fact that cost of food raw material ingredients such as wheat, vegetable oils or milk powder rarely exceed 5 per cent of the total cost of the finished product. Neither farmer nor shopper get the benefit of this activity.¶ This phenomenon has been closely monitored by all of the leading authorities: the European Commission, the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation and the OECD. It has been particularly noticeable in the wake of the 2006-08 food price crisis.¶ For example, FAO figures show that in the Eurozone countries of the EU retail food prices declined only by 0.2 per cent in the year to May 2009, US consumer food prices were 2.7 per cent higher than in May 2008. In the UK, food prices were 5.4 per cent higher year-on- year in May 2009 – this despite substantial reductions in all the major food commodity prices between mid 2008 and 2009. ”Consumer food prices remained high because of the ‘ratchet effect’ of prices in the food market”, the Organisation reveals. Prices adjust upwards more easily than downwards. Lack of competitiveness in the food retail and wholesale sectors makes it possible, the FAO argues, for wholesalers and retailers not to pass on price reductions to the consumer. ¶ What makes matters worse for the effective functioning of the food marketing chain is that the same market power that harms consumers is also increasingly being used against food producers. No internal link/Impact- There is no trade-off or correlation between biofuels and food security International Platform 08 rural21.medianet- kunden.de/uploads/media/R21_Biofuels_and_food_security_0208.pdf Biofuels and food security¶ International Platform- Fostering biofuels has become a momentous policy fashion in the rich countries, and their ¶ farmers and processing industries grab the new opportunities. But what does this mean for ¶ food security in the poor countries?

With all this in mind, there is little ¶ doubt that the growing use of agricultural commodities for the production ¶ of energy in the rich countries has a ¶ negative impact on food security in ¶ developing countries. The biofuels ¶ lobby in developed countries does not ¶ tire to emphasize that the world has suficient productive capacity to produce ¶ both food and agricultural commodities for use in biofuels production, and ¶ hence that there is no trade-off between ¶ biofuels and food security. LINK Link Turn- High Food prices are good for producers, private investors, and farmers.- They can also be controlled and be made sustainable. Weijing 12 http://asia.ifad.org/web/china/blogs/-/blogs/are-high-food-prices-good-or-bad? & Are high food prices good or bad?¶ POSTED BY WANG WEIJING ON 7/11/12 9:37 AM ¶ THIS ITEM IS VISIBLE BY The World (e.g. Google People normally think high food prices are bad, or at least bad to net consumers, although good to net producers. As many small holders and the poor are the net consumers, they are vulnerable to high food prices. The memory of 2008 food crisis is still fresh to many people: the high food prices exaggerated poverty and pushed more than 100 million people into hunger in 2008 (WFP, 2008).¶ In the recent south-south cooperation workshop in Beijing however, it was argued that high food prices were not always bad. When the prices go up, it hurts farmers, but farmers will quickly have coping strategy and produce more. They become producers and benefit from the high prices. ¶ This opinion is likely to be consistent with Chinese government’s food prices policy. The objective of food price policy is to keep the food prices growing moderately. The rationale is to provide enough incentives for farming, and gradually increase farmers’ income, but not too radical to cause food crisis .¶ I think it seems a good blueprint but the question is how well for government to create an environment to allow the prices grow moderately? And if there is a pressure of volatility of food prices , how well could the government, the community, the producers and the consumers prevent and prepare for it?¶ Chinese government already has big state- owned enterprises (SOEs) to help smoothing market prices. The mechanism is not complicated: when the prices are low, SOEs buy food, and when the prices go up, they sell foods to the market. Through the adjustment of food supply in the market, the food prices can be partly smoothed. Now these SOEs focus on grain and pork which are the most important food for Chinese people.¶ Another prices intervention is to launch “minimum purchasing prices” ( MPP)mechanism. Essentially every year the government issues indicative prices for wheat and rice respectively. If the market prices are higher than the MPP, the transaction will be market based; otherwise government will buy wheat/rice by the MPP. Some people argued that the MPP mechanism distorted the market. However, the MPP was never really launched/used because the market prices are always higher than the MPP. So I think so far this policy is effective in providing incentive and confidence for farmers and markets as the prices set seem lower than the equilibrium. But it is still important to have such a policy to hedge the loss of farmers.¶ ¶ Shall government have policies to prepare cash transfer for the most vulnerable people like urban poor, the retirees, the rural small holders and students when crisis comes?¶ Producers must be happy with the high food prices, but it is important to raise the awareness of market risks for them. Although the food prices index, which is composed by a basket of foods, are remaining high in the recent years, it is not always the case of specific food commodities. Market risks are always there. Agricultural risk management including agricultural insurance could be effective to transfer the risks out of the region and the country. I would like to highlight the importance of risk transfer out of the region/country as food prices are highly positively correlated.¶ Households and consumers shall have their coping strategies as well: savings, remittance, and livestock. Are there other coping strategies HHs shall be aware of and prepare?¶ In summary, high food prices could be good, as it guides agricultural investment not only from the government but also from private sectors, and provide incentives for farmers to produce more.

Link Turn- High food prices are good for business and companies to profit from price differences. Neate 12 Rupert NeateThe Guardian, Tuesday 21 August 2012 15.46 EDT Rupert Neate is a reporter. He was shortlisted for Reporter of the Year at the 2012 British Press Awards and the British Journalism Awards for his investigation that led to Liam Fox's resignation as defence secretary. He joined the Guardian in 2011 from the Daily Telegraph, were he worked for four years as City Diary editor and telecoms and technology correspondent. He wasnamed Student Journalist of the Year at the Guardian Student Media Awards in 2006. http://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/rupertneate

The head of Glencore's food trading business has said the worst drought to hit the US since the 1930s will be "good for Glencore" because it will lead to opportunities to exploit soaring prices.¶ Chris Mahoney, the trader's director of agricultural products, who owns about £500m of Glencore shares, said the devastating US drought had created an opportunity for the company to make much more money.¶ "In terms of the outlook for the balance of the year, the environment is a good one. High prices, lots of volatility, a lot of dislocation, tightness, a lot of arbitrage opportunities [the purchase and sale of an asset in order to profit from price differences in different markets]," he said on a conference call .

Link Turn- The usage and promotion of Sugar has failed by making higher food prices, land drainage, runoffs and destruction of natural habitats Edwards 08 Chris Edwards is the director of tax policy studies at Cato and editor ofwww.DownsizingGovernment.org. He is a top expert on federal and state tax and budget issues. Before joining Cato, Edwards was a senior economist on the congressional Joint Economic Committee, a manager with PricewaterhouseCoopers, and an economist with the Tax Foundation. Edwards has testified to Congress on fiscal issues many times, and his articles on tax and budget policies have appeared in theWashington Post, Wall Street Journal, and other major newspapers. He is the author of Downsizing the Federal Government and co-author ofGlobal Tax Revolution. Edwards holds a B.A. and M.A. in economics, and he was a member of the Fiscal Future Commission of the National Academy of Sciences.

Why Congress Should Repeal Sugar Subsidy¶ By Chris Edwards¶ This article appeared on IBDEditorials.com on June 20, 2007.

The farm bill moving through Congress provides the Democrats an excellent chance to challenge special interests and help average families.¶ A ripe target for reform is the sugar program, which protects sugar growers and inflates domestic sugar to twice the world price. This racket costs U.S. families about $2 billion annually, hitting them whenever they buy chocolates, breakfast cereal and the like.¶ When the Republicans controlled Congress, they shied away from sugar reform, yielding to the power of the sugar growers’ lobby. The Democrats can show that they are different. By reforming sugar policies, they could cut food costs for families and end unfair benefits for a small group of wealthy sugar barons.¶ The sugar program is essentially a producer cartel run out of Washington. The Agriculture Department operates a complex loan program to guarantee sugar growers certain prices, which it enforces with import barriers and domestic production controls.¶ The import barriers prevent cheaper foreign sugar from putting downward pressure on domestic prices. Current rules restrict sugar imports to about 15% of the American market. By contrast, when rules were looser prior to the 1980s, sugar imports accounted for half the U.S. market.¶ In the domestic market, the Agriculture Department decides what total sugar production ought to be and allots 54% of production to beet sugar and 46% to cane sugar. The department then allots each sugar company a specific production quota. According to the Government Accountability Office, 42% of sugar program benefits go to just 1% of sugar growers.¶ Most production is in Minnesota, Idaho, North Dakota, Michigan and California. Most sugarcane production is in Florida and Louisiana . Not surprisingly, policymakers from those states usually block sugar reform. Nonetheless, policymakers from Illinois and other such states, which have food companies damaged by high sugar prices, are challenging the current program.¶ High sugar prices harm manufacturers of candies, chocolates and breakfast cereal. A 2006 study by the Commerce Department found that for each sugar industry job saved by the sugar program, nearly three food manufacturing jobs are lost. The study found that:¶ Employment in food companies that use substantial amounts of sugar is declining. Imports of food products that contain sugar are growing because it is not competitive to make those products in the U.S.¶ Numerous companies have relocated to Canada and Mexico, where sugar prices are much lower.¶ Chicago, once the nation’s candy manufacturing capital, has lost thousands of jobs. In 2004, candy maker Fannie May closed its Chicago factory and Brach’s moved its Chicago candy production to Mexico.¶ Michigan took a hit in 2002, when Kraft moved its 600–worker LifeSavers factory to Canada in search of low–cost sugar.¶ Hershey Foods closed plants in Pennsylvania, Colorado and California and relocated them to Canada as well.¶ The sugar program also causes environmental damage. Large areas of the Florida Everglades have been converted to cane sugar production as a result of sugar protection. That has caused damage from the related land drainage, runoff of chemical fertilizers, and the destruction of natural habitat.¶ With all the negative effects of the sugar program, why does it survive? Because Congress often puts the interests of the favored few ahead of the general public good. In this case, sugar growers are well–organized and they protect the program by providing large campaign support to presidents, governors and many members of Congress.¶ But the sugar lobby is beatable.

Link Turn- High food prices reduce poverty and create more food Kharas 08. Homi Kharas, a senior fellow and deputy director for the Global Economy and Development program. Formerly a chief economist in the East Asia and Pacific Region of the World Bank, Kharas currently studies policies and trends influencing developing countries, including aid to poor countries, the emergence of a middle class, the food crisis and global governance and the G20. . "The reality of Rising Food Prices: Benefits to the Poor". Brookings Institute. August 6th, 2008. Accessed online at: www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2008/08/06-food-prices-kharas Images of food riots and hungry people stir deep emotions. But we must debate trade-offs: will the rise in food prices generate more food for the world and less poverty for poor people in the future? Are today’s food prices fair to producers and consumers? Yes, because higher food prices will bring about new investments in agriculture and higher global production. This is already happening in Asia and other parts of the world, and will accelerate over time. Yes, because without higher food prices, land use would shift towards corn-for-ethanol and other biofuel crops and we would have less food available. Yes, because a system with food prices in free fall for 30 years did not produce any measurable decline in hunger and poverty. But the last time food prices were as high as they are today we witnessed the Green Revolution and a rapid reduction of rural poverty in one of the largest population centres of the world, South Asia. Yes, because the great urban/rural divide that was cleaving societies across the developing world has now narrowed. Some have argued that the proposition is unfairly worded. As there is an upside to most things, surely food prices are no exception. I do not want this debate to be about such sophistry. Instead let us be clear about the real changes in people’s lives that can come about in the long run from higher food prices. Most of the evidence I have seen suggests that when looked at in detail, most poor people will gain from higher food prices. Many commentators have argued that subsistence farmers do not benefit from high food prices. I presented evidence from studies on India, China and Indonesia, where the mass of humanity resides, suggesting that farmers (including the poorest of the poor) would benefit in net terms, when both income and expenditure effects are taken into account. No one has advanced any evidence to the contrary, although many choose to believe their own instincts rather than the evidence I presented. My opponent claims that millions of poor African and Asian farmers are suffering, but he has not actually challenged any of the studies I cite, nor has he presented any facts to back up his claims. To all the sceptics who view farmers in developing countries as isolated from markets and impervious to the incentives of high global prices, I would simply refer to the comments by Dr Seck, a true expert on Africa: “The current food crisis caused by rising food prices is a unique historical opportunity for Africa to break from decades of policy bias against agriculture.” Please look at his credentials before dismissing his conclusions. In the last analysis, almost everyone agrees that we need faster rural development to alleviate poverty and hunger. Higher farm gate prices are a key element for this to happen. One blogger commenting on this debate offered a nice example of this process at work. When Vietnam liberalised and raised rice prices in the 1990s, rural families were able to afford to send their children to school rather than having them work as farm labourers. These educated children are today fuelling Vietnam’s rapid growth. The country has seen arguably the fastest decline in poverty in history. And it started with a rise in food prices.

Link Turn- High prices help poverty and improve food security. FAO 11. Food and Agriculture orginization of the United Nations. Recent trends in world food commodity prices: costs and benefits. The state of food insecurity in the world. 2011. Accessed online at: www.fao.org/docrep/014/i2330e/i2330e03.pdf

In rural areas, higher food prices will tend to have smaller negative effects on net food buyers because many households produce a substantial share of what they consume, and hence are only marginal food buyers. On the other hand, farmers who are net food sellers are likely to benefit from higher prices, which, other things being equal, will tend to increase their income. Since many farmers are poor, higher prices could help to alleviate poverty and improve food security. However, it must also be kept in mind that farmers with more surplus production to sell will benefit more from high prices than farmers who have only a small surplus to sell. Further, in most (but not all) contexts, farmers with more land tend to be better off than farmers with only a little land, so it may be that poorer farmers will not receive the bulk of the benefits from higher food prices. Overall beneficial impacts of higher food prices on poverty are more likely in countries with a relatively equal distribution of land. A2: SOLVENCY Solvency turn- Corn is the best way to solve ethanol and there are multiple benefits. Fraizer 13 http://greenliving.lovetoknow.com/Ethanol_Biofuel_Pros_and_ConsKaren Frazier is a freelance writer and journalist with more than 20 years of experience writing for an array of publications. She is the author of three books, Dancing with the Afterlife: A paranormal memoir, Lessons of Many Lives and Avalanche of Spirits: The Ghosts of Wellington. Karen has written articles on many topics, and has specific expertise in food and wine, paranormal phenomena, marketing, alternative health care, parenting, and nutrition and fitness. 2013 LoveToKnow Corp.

According to the American Coalition for Ethanol, this type of fuel offers several benefits, including: ¶ Renewable: Ethanol is a renewable fuel that comes from agricultural crops. It takes only six months to grow and harvest a crop such as corn which can be converted to ethanol .¶ No special vehicle needed: Ethanol can be used by all gasoline vehicles in the United States in concentrations up to about 10%. With slight alterations, former gasoline vehicles can run on ethanol blends as high as 85%. Ethanol provides lower vehicle emissions without the need to purchase a hybrid vehicle.¶ Reduces fossil fuel imports: The use of ethanol can reduce the use of gasoline. A reduction in the use of gasoline reduces some of the dependence on foreign powers for fossil fuels. ¶ Reduces air pollution: Ethanol reduces the amount of carbon monoxide and other ground-level toxic air pollutants as compared to conventional unleaded gasoline by about 10 to 30 percent. It has also reduced smog forming emissions by about one quarter since 1990.¶ Domestic: Crops such as corn and sugar cane can be grown and produced into ethanol in the United States.¶ Cost-effective production: Ethanol is relatively inexpensive to process. ¶ Boosts effectiveness of gasoline: Ethanol can help prevent engine knocking, and it increases gasoline's lubricity. ¶ Supports rural economies: Ethanol production increases jobs due to plant construction, operations, and maintenance. Most ethanol plants are in rural communities. ¶ Increases local and state tax revenue: The American Coalition for Ethanol estimates production will increase local and state tax revenue by about $1.2 million per year. Solvency Turn- Changing U.S. export policy results in increase of food prices. WTO 12vision¶ Food Prices and the Multiplier Effect of Export Policy¶ Paolo E. Giordani Nadia Rocha¶ LUISS "Guido Carli" University World Trade Organization¶ Michele Ruta¶ World Trade Organization¶ Manuscript date: April 2012http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/reser_e/ersd201208_e.pdf

Our results confirm that changes in export policy are set in response to restrictions imposed by other exporters, particularly for large exporters¶ and in important products such as staple foods. Moreover, the overall impact of these measures has ¶ been to signiÖcantly increase food prices in 2008-10. this multiplier mechanism in food markets bears consequences for global welfare. An increase¶ (fall) in the world price of food is a terms of trade gain (loss) for exporting countries and a terms¶ of trade loss (gain) for importers. While these e§ects cancel each other out, export policy activism¶ creates the traditional distortions and deadweight loss that lower global welfare. **A2: WARMING ADV NO WARMING NO WARMING – GENERIC

Studies confirm warming ended 16 years ago Rose 12 (David Rose, staff writer for UK Daily Mail, “Global warming stopped 16 years ago, reveals Met Office report quietly released... and here is the chart to prove it,” 9/13/12.)

The world stopped getting warmer almost 16 years ago, according to new data released last week. The figures, which have triggered debate among climate scientists, reveal that from the beginning of 1997 until August 2012, there was no discernible rise in aggregate global temperatures. This means that the ‘plateau’ or ‘pause’ in global warming has now lasted for about the same time as the previous period when temperatures rose, 1980 to 1996. Before that, temperatures had been stable or declining for about 40 years. The new data, compiled from more than 3,000 measuring points on land and sea, was issued quietly on the internet, without any media fanfare, and, until today, it has not been reported. This stands in sharp contrast to the release of the previous figures six months ago, which went only to the end of 2010 – a very warm year. Ending the data then means it is possible to show a slight warming trend since 1997, but 2011 and the first eight months of 2012 were much cooler, and thus this trend is erased.

NASA scientists conclude there’s no catastrophic warming and CO2 is good for ecosystems Morano 13 (Marc, news correspondent for Climate Depot, B.A., Political Science, George Mason University, Team of Former NASA Scientists Conclude: ‘There is no convincing physical evidence to support the man-made climate change hypothesis,’ 1/23/13.)

A group of 20 ex-NASA scientists have concluded that the science used to support the man-made climate change hypothesis is not settled and no convincing physical evidence exists to support catastrophic climate change forecasts. Beginning in February 2012, the group of scientists calling themselves The Right Climate Stuff (TRCS) team received presentations by scientists representing all sides of the climate change debate and embarked on an in-depth review of a number of climate studies. Employing a disciplined approach of problem identification and root cause analysis honed from decades of dealing with life threatening safety issues in successfully sending astronauts up through Earth’s atmosphere and returning them safely home, the TRCS team concluded that no imminent threat exists from man-made CO2. TRCS team is comprised of renowned space scientists with formal educational and decades career involvement in engineering, physics, chemistry, astrophysics, geophysics, geology and meteorology. Many of these scientists have Ph.Ds. All TRCS team members are unpaid volunteers who began the project after becoming dismayed with NASA’s increasing advocacy for alarmist man- made climate change theories. H. Leighton Steward, chairman of CO2isGreen.org as well as the educational non-profit, PlantsNeedCO2.org, makes the following comments regarding the TRCS posting, which can be found at www.therightclimatestuff.com: 1. The science of what is causing global climate change or warming is clearly not settled and never has been. 2. There is no convincing physical evidence to support the man-made climate change hypothesis. The standard test of a hypothesis is whether it is supported by real observations, which seems to have been ignored by climate alarmists. 3. Claims made by proponents of catastrophic man-made warming are dominantly supported by non-validated computer models and the output of these models should not be relied upon by policy- makers. Some TRCS team members have been making critical decisions using complex computer models for decades. 4. There is no immediate threat of catastrophic global warming even if some warming occurs. The sea level is not going to suddenly begin a steep acceleration of its 18,000-year rate of rise. Global sea level rise is not currently accelerating despite what climate change alarmists claim. 5. The U.S. Government has overreacted to a possible catastrophic warming. The probable negative impacts to the economy, jobs and an increased cost of food, transportation and utilities will be severe and hurt the poor and middle class the most. Real experiments show that Earth’s habitats and ecosystems could be damaged if CO2 levels are actually reduced. Environmentalists have been grossly misled to believe CO2 is a pollutant. 6. Empirical evidence shows that Earth is currently “greening” significantly due to additional CO2 and a modest warming. NO WARMING – EXTINCTION

No scientific evidence warming causes species extinction Sample 12 (Ian, science correspondent for the Guardian, “Scientists have 'limited knowledge' of how climate change causes extinction,” 9/17/12.)

A major review into the impact of climate change on plants and animals has found that scientists have almost no idea how it drives various species to extinction. Though some organisms struggle to cope physiologically with rising temperatures – a simple and direct result of climate change – there was scarce evidence this was the main climate-related threat to many species whose numbers were already falling. More often, climate change took its toll on life through more complex and indirect routes, such as reducing the abundance of food, making diseases more rife, and disturbing natural encounters between species, the review concludes. The report warns that scientists have "disturbingly limited knowledge" on the crucial issue, and that many species may become extinct long before their inability to cope physically with warmer conditions becomes a danger. "This is arguably the most important topic in biology and the simple question of what actually causes a population to go extinct through climate change is completely understudied," said John Wiens, an evolutionary ecologist at Stony Brook University in New York. Understanding the precise ways that climate change impacted on different species was now "an urgent priority" for future research, he added. Wien's group analysed 136 published studies that described local extinctions attributed to climate change. Only seven of the papers identified a primary mechanism for the species' disappearance. None showed a simple relationship between species loss and the organism's tolerance of higher temperatures. NO WARMING – ANTHROPROGENIC Global warming is a natural and not anthroprogenic; empirical research proves Borland 07(Sophie Borland, staff writer for The Telegraph newspaper, “Global warming ‘is good and is not our fault,’” The Telegraph, September 2007.) Accessed online at: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1563054/Global-warming-is-good- and-is-not-our-fault.html

Global warming is an entirely natural phenomenon and its effects can even be beneficial, according to two leading researchers. Recent climate change is not caused by man-made pollution, but is instead part of a 1,500-year cycle of warming and cooling that has happened for the last million years, say the authors of a controversial study. Dennis Avery, an environmental economist, and Professor Fred Singer, a physicist, have looked at the work of more than 500 scientists and concluded that it is very doubtful that man-made global warming exists. They also say that temperature increase is actually a good thing as in the past sudden cool periods have killed twice as many people as warm spells. Mr Avery, a senior research fellow at the Hudson Institute, an independent US think-tank, said: "Not all of these researchers who doubt man-made climate change would describe themselves as global warming sceptics but the evidence in their studies is there for all to see.”Two thousand years of published human histories say that the warm periods were good for people. "It was the harsh, unstable Dark Ages and the Little Ice Age that brought bigger storms, untimely frost, widespread famine, plagues and disease." In contrast, they say there is evidence that wildlife is flourishing in the current warming cycle with corals, trees, birds, mammals and butterflies adapting well. In addition, sea-levels are not rising dramatically and storms and droughts have actually been less severe and frequent. The authors claim that the change is not man-made because the most recent period of global warming took place between 1850 and 1940 when there were far less CO2 emissions than today. They claim to show strong historical evidence of an entirely natural cycle based on data of floods on the Nile going back 5,000 years. Evidence is citing showing records of Roman wine production in Britain in the first century AD. Prof Singer, a specialist in atmospheric physics at the University of Virginia, said: "We have a greenhouse theory with no evidence to support it, except a moderate warming turned into a scare by computer models whose results have never been verified with real-world events. "The models only reflect the warming, not its cause." They also say that natural temperature change can be caused by fluctuations in the sun. The authors spent months analyzing scientific reports and papers for their book, Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years. Their aim was to undermine claims made by Al Gore, the former US vice-president, in his film An Inconvenient Truth, that shows the extent of man-made global warming. NO WARMING – IPCC STUDIES

Leaks confirm IPCC data is flawed and significantly overestimated Lott 13 (Maxim, correspondent for Fox News, “Draft UN climate report shows 20 years of overestimated global warming, skeptics warn,” 1/28/13.) A preliminary draft of a report by the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was leaked to the public this month, and climate skeptics say it contains fresh evidence of 20 years of overstated global warming. The report -- which is not scheduled for publication until 2014 -- was leaked by someone involved in the IPCC’s review process, and is available for download online. Bloggers combing through the report discovered a chart comparing the four temperature models the group has published since 1990. Each has overstated the rise in temperature that Earth actually experienced.¶ “Temperatures have not risen nearly as much as almost all of the climate models predicted,” Roy Spencer, a climatologist at the University of Alabama at Huntsville, told FoxNews.com.¶ “Their predictions have largely failed, four times in a row... what that means is that it's time for them to re-evaluate,” Spencer said.¶ The IPCC graph shows that the midpoints of the various models predicted that the world would warm by between about 0.5 degrees Fahrenheit and 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit between 1990 and 2012. Actual warming was much less than that: 0.28 F, according the data the IPCC cites. NO WARMING – CONSENSUS There’s no scientific consensus on warming’s existence Noble 13 (Graham, news and research correspondent for the Guardian Press UK, Global Warming Fanatics and Three Good Reasons Not to Trust Them, 6/11/13.) Despite claims by global warming alarmists that the “debate is over”, “the science is settled” and that there is a “consensus” among scientists that global warming is real, there are countless scientific studies that have contradicted this theory. A minimal amount of research will locate such studies, conducted by individuals and institutions as highly credentialed and respected as any of those who are trying to prove the existence of global warming. Recently, the New York Times – normally a strong supporter of the global warming lobby – revealed that a scientific study shows a slower rise in temperature on the Earth’s surface over the past 15 years than over the previous 20 years. The Times then attempted to brush this off by suggesting that the rate of global warming is erratic. This is the usual tactic of global warming fanatics – and is why there are many reasons not to trust them: Despite their claims that the science is “settled”, whenever a study throws doubt on their theory, they then turn around and use the excuse that climate science is not, after all, an exact science. In doing so, they are admitting that the science is not, therefore, “settled”. In truth, global warming happens; it is natural. global cooling also happens; and, back in the 1970’s, we were being told that global cooling was an existential threat, just as we are told today that global warming is. A cursory look into the makeup and funding of institutions that push the global warming theory will reveal deep-rooted political connections. Ultra-wealthy George Soros, who is well-known as the money behind extreme Left-wing “news” organizations such as Media Matters for America, also pours millions into the climate change lobby. That is a connection too obvious to miss. WARMING INEVITABLE

No government action can solve – warming is irreversible Dave 12 (Sacramento, news correspondent for the Thom Hartmann Program, Global Warming has become irreversible, according to a new report from the American Meteorological Society, 8/31/12.) Global Warming has become irreversible, according to a new report from the American Meteorological Society. EIN Newswire reports that the AMS made the startling finding in an information report published on August 20, 2012. The report finds that even if governments, corporations and individuals cut their greenhouse gas emissions drastically today, it would still be too late to head off a coming global disaster." "Those findings echo the claims made in the 1972 report 'Limits to Growth,' in which a team of MIT researchers entered a variety of different economic and environmental scenarios into a computer model. Most of those scenarios indicated that without significant limits to human consumption patterns, the result would be a complete global economic collapse by 2030. The 1972 report also stated that to avoid the predicted consequences, drastic changes were required to protect the environment. In the ensuing decades the environmental outlook has continued to worsen, human consumption has grown and the population of the world has exploded. The new AMS report warns: There is unequivocal evidence that Earth’s lower atmosphere, ocean, and land surface are warming; sea level is rising; and snow cover, mountain glaciers, and Arctic sea ice are shrinking. The dominant cause of the warming since the 1950s is human activities. This scientific finding is based on a large and persuasive body of research. The observed warming will be irreversible for many years into the future, and even larger temperature increases will occur as greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere. Too late to reverse warming PO 12 (Phys.org, “Too late to stop global warming by cutting emissions: Scientists argue for adaption policies,” 9/17/12.)

Governments and institutions should focus on developing adaption policies to address and mitigate against the negative impact of global warming, rather than putting the emphasis on carbon trading and capping greenhouse-gas emissions, argue Johannesburg-based Wits University geoscientist Dr Jasper Knight and Dr Stephan Harrison from the University of Exeter in the United Kingdom. "At present, governments' attempts to limit greenhouse-gas emissions through carbon cap-and-trade schemes and to promote renewable and sustainable energy sources are prob¬ably too late to arrest the inevitable trend of global warming," the scientists write in a paper published online in the scientific journal, Nature Climate Change, on Monday, 14 October 2012. The paper, entitled The Impacts of climate change on terrestrial Earth surface systems, is published in the Perspective section of Nature Climate Change and argues that much less attention is paid by policymakers to monitor, model and manage the impacts of climate change on the dynamics of Earth surface systems, including glaciers, rivers, mountains and coasts. "This is a critical omission, as Earth surface systems provide water and soil resources, sustain ecosystem services and strongly influence biogeochemical climate feedbacks in ways that are as yet uncertain," the scientists write. WARMING GOOD WARMING GOOD – HUMANITY

Global warming is key to a prosperous human race; history empirically proves Patterson 11 (Matthew Patterson, the Warren T. Brookes Fellow at the Competitive Enterprise Institute and senior editor at the Capital Research Center, “Global Warming We Can All Cheer,” New York Post, November 2011.) Accessed online at: http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/global_warming_we_c an_all_cheer_YuaZ4rbJSEIerSIa8Ij25I

In other words, homo sapiens, which existed in its more or less anatomically modern form for 100,000 to 200,000 years, began to flourish and thrive as a result of this most fortuitous warmth. In short: Global warming is good for people. If you don’t believe me, look at the temperature variations within the Holocene: The so-called Roman Warming coincided with the heights of classical civilization; then came a period of cooling which coincided with the social collapse of the Dark Ages. Then there was the Medieval Warm Period, which coincided with the rise of monumental cathedrals in Europe and the settlement by Vikings in a lush Greenland, followed by the Little Ice Age (from roughly the 14th to the 19th centuries) — which saw widespread political upheavals, famine and disease. Finally, there is the current warming trend of the last century and a half or so. In each instance, the result is broadly the same: The warmer the Earth, the better it has been for people. So let’s be thankful for the Holocene — civilization could never have arisen without it. And let’s be thankful we live in this especially warm period within the Holocene, which has seen human populations achieve measures of health and wealth unparalleled in all of history. WARMING GOOD – BIODIVERSITY

Warming increases biodiversity – studies prove Lemonick 12 (Michael D, Senior Science Writer at Climate Central, “Global Warming Good for Biodiversity? Only at a Big Cost,” 9/4/12.)

A study just out in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences is both important and confusing — important for people who know how to read through a scientific paper, and confusing for the rest of us. It’s confusing because the bottom line is that biodiversity — that is, the richness of species — is likely to improve in a warmer world. Since ecosystems with high biodiversity are the healthiest and most resilient, this is presumably a good thing. But it doesn’t seem to square with what scientists have been saying for some time: that we’re losing biodiversity as the Earth warms. In fact, many say that the planet is in the midst of a sixth mass extinction, of the same sort that wiped out the dinosaurs 65 million years ago. One major reason is the global warming triggered by our burning of fossil fuels, although land use changes as we build cities and roads and eradicate rainforests is another big factor. The key to this seeming paradox is time. “Increases in global diversity take millions of years, and in the meantime we expect extinctions to occur,” co-author Tim Benton, of the University of Leeds, said in a press release.” In previous research, the same scientists had concluded that a warmer world would feature less biodiversity. Their evidence came in the form of ancient marine fossils: if you look at back at the past 540 million years or so of the planet’s history, there seemed to be fewer species during periods when the Earth’s temperature was higher. This seemed odd, since today there’s more biodiversity around Earth’s warm equator than there is in temperate and polar region. Now, however, the researchers are saying, in essence, “never mind.” It’s not that the earlier research was wrong, exactly. It was just based on data of uneven quality. Scientists had counted all the species they could find in the fossil record and came up with a correlation between warm climates and a paltry numbers of species. This time around, they took account of the fact that some periods in the fossil record have been much more thoroughly sampled than others. When you rely only on the well-sampled periods, it turns out that warm climates tend to have more species after all. What this means is that global warming could ultimately end up being a good thing for the planet. Warming is key to rainforests Newsroom 13 (Panama Newsroom, “Global warming good for rainforests – Smithsonian,” 6/1/13.)

Rainforests flourished under conditions of global warming in the past and should do so in the future, say scientists at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute. Researchers Carlos Jaramillo and Andrés Cárdenas reviewed nearly 6,000 publications about ancient temperature measurements to give a perspective to the debate on climate change. Their conclusions were published on the institute's web site June 1. Currently, no South American rainforest is subject to average annual temperatures of more than 84 degrees Fahrenheit (29 Celsuis). But by the end of this century, global average temperatures will rise to above that level. Some scientists have postulated that climate change will see the disappearance to the most diverse terrestrial ecosystems. However, Jaramillo said that the fossil record shows that tropical forests thrived under global warming conditions and diversity increased, since larger forested areas generally have a level of diversity that is higher than in smaller areas. The research showed that rainforests expanded into more temperate zones as temperatures increased. The prognosis of the researchers is based on indirect evidence, such as the proportions of oxygen isotopes in the fossil shells of marine organisms or biomarkers in bacteria. Jaramillo emphasized that 120 million years ago, in the Middle Cretaceous period, intense volcanic activity produced huge amounts of carbon dioxide increasing temperatures by 12.9 degrees Fahrenheit (10.6 Celsius). Klaus Winter, a plant physiologist, discovered that some tropical trees tolerate exposure to short-term temperature of up to 127 degrees F (53 Celsius)

CO2 emissions are key to biodiversity Zubrin 12

(, president of Pioneer Astronautics, a member of the steering committee of Americans for Energy, and the author of Energy Victory, “Carbon Emissions are Good,” The National Review, April 2012.) Accessed online at: http://www.nationalreview.com/blogs/print/295098

This has left the EPA’s second premise — that global warming would be a harmful development — largely unchallenged. This is unfortunate, because while it is entirely possible that the earth may be warming — as it has done so many times in the past — there is no rational basis whatsoever to support the contention that carbon-dioxide-driven global warming would be on the whole harmful to life and civilization. Quite the contrary: All available evidence supports the contention that human CO2 emissions offer great benefits to the earth’s community of life. Putting aside for the moment the question of whether human industrial CO2 emissions are having an effect on climate, it is quite clear that they are raising atmospheric CO2 levels. As a result, they are having a strong and markedly positive effect on plant growth worldwide. There is no doubt about this. NASA satellite observations taken from orbit since 1958 show that, concurrent with the 19 percent increase in atmospheric CO2 over the past half century, the rate of plant growth in the continental United States has increased by 14 percent. Studies done at Oak Ridge National Lab on forest trees have shown that increasing the carbon dioxide level 50 percent, to the 550 parts per million level projected to prevail at the end of the 21 century, will likely increase photosynthetic productivity by a further 24 percent. This is readily reproducible laboratory science. If CO2 levels are increased, the rate of plant growth will accelerate. Now let us consider the question of warming: If it is occurring — and I believe it is, based not on disputable temperature measurements but on sea levels, which have risen two inches in two decades — is it a good thing or a bad thing? Answer: It is a very good thing. Global warming would increase the rate of evaporation from the oceans. This would increase rainfall worldwide. In addition, global warming would lengthen the growing season, thereby increasing still further the bounty of both agriculture and nature. In other words, from any rational point of view, global warming would be a very good thing. By enriching the carbon-dioxide content of the atmosphere from its impoverished pre-industrial levels, human beings have increased the productivity of the entire biosphere — so much so that roughly one out of every seven living things on the planet owes its existence to the marvelous improvement in nature that humans have effected. Through our CO2 emissions we are making the earth a more fertile world. CO2 EMISSIONS CO2 EMISSIONS – ICE AGE

CO2 emissions prevent the next Ice Age which would inevitably lead to extinction

Didymus 12(John Thomas Didymus, journalist from the Digital Journal, “Human carbon dioxide emissions could prevent next Ice Age,” Digital Journal, January 2012.)Accessed online at: http://digitaljournal.com/print/article/317605#ixzz1w2W7dBCR

A team of scientists say that high levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could prevent the next Ice Age. The scientists say that even if carbon emissions stopped today, enough has accumulated in the atmosphere to prevent the next Ice Age glaciation. The Telegraph reports that according to the team of scientist, in a study published in Nature Geoscience, high levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere that has been source of concern among environmental scientists could prevent glaciation. The scientists said that at the next Ice Age, the climate will cool down, but not as severely it could have with normal carbon dioxide levels. According to scientists, the Earth will probably not experience glaciation. The team included scientists from University College London, the University of Florida and Norway's Bergen University. BBC reported that paleoclimatologist Luke Skinner, from Cambridge University, said: "At current levels of CO2, even if emissions stopped now we'd probably have a long interglacial duration determined by whatever long-term processes could kick in and bring [atmospheric] CO2 down." The current level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is 390 parts per million. The scientists say that carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere will need to drop down to 240 parts per million for glaciation to take place. Some groups, according to BBC, are citing the study as evidence that human carbon dioxide emission may be beneficial for humankind. The UK lobby group Global Warning Policy Foundation, refers to an essay by Sir Fred Hoyle and Chandra Wickramasinghe, that said: "The renewal of ice-age conditions would render a large fraction of the world's major food-growing areas inoperable, and so would inevitably lead to the extinction of most of the present human population. We must look to a sustained greenhouse effect to maintain the present advantageous world climate. This implies the ability to inject effective greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, the opposite of what environmentalists are erroneously advocating." CO2 EMISSIONS – FOOD SHORTAGES

CO2 emissions are key to preventing food shortages that lead to starvation and death

Idso 11(Craig Idso, President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, “Estimates of Global Food Production in the Year 2050,” Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, June 2011.) Accessed online at: http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/other/food_security.p df

Global food security is one of the most pressing societal issues of our time. The positive impact of Earth’s rising atmospheric CO2 concentration on crop yields, however, will considerably lessen the severity of the looming food shortage. It will aid in lifting untold hundreds of millions of people out of a state of hunger and malnutrition, thereby preventing widespread starvation and premature death. We must not interfere with human enterprises that release CO2 to the atmosphere; for that course of action will only exacerbate the future food problem.

Food shortages lead to World War III Calvin 02

(William H Calvin, is a theoretical neurophysiologist at the University of Washington at Seattle, “A brain for all seasons: human evolution and abrupt climate change” 2002. ) Accessed online at: http://books.google.com/books? id=xbo8CXwh3hoC&pg=PT141&dq=The+population- crash+scenario&hl=en&sa=X&ei=qhssT5- ZHKbe2AXS39j5Dg&ved=0CDIQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=The%20population- crash%20scenario&f=false

The population-crash scenario is surely the most appalling. Plummeting crop yields would cause some powerful countries to try to take over their neighbors or distant lands -- if only because their armies, unpaid and lacking food, would go marauding, both at home and across the borders. The better-organized countries would attempt to use their

armies, before they fell apart entirely, to take over countries with significant remaining resources, driving out or starving their inhabitants if not using modern weapons to accomplish the same end: eliminating competitors for the remaining food. This would be a worldwide problem -- and could lead to a Third World War -- but Europe's vulnerability is particularly easy to analyze. The last abrupt cooling, the Younger Dryas, drastically altered Europe's climate as far east as Ukraine. Present-day Europe has more than 650 million people. It has excellent soils, and largely grows its own food. It could no longer do so if it lost the extra warming from the North Atlantic. CO2 GOOD – SOYBEANS

CO2 is key to protecting soybeans from invading pathogens CO2 Science 12 (CO2 Science, Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, “ Interactive Effects of CO2 and Pathogens on Legumes – Summary,” February 2012.) Accessed online at: http://www.co2science.org/subject/p/summaries/pathogenslegumes.php

Based on their analysis, Kretzschmar et al. report that "elevated CO2 combined with nitric oxide resulted in an increase of intermediates and diverted end products (daidzein - 127%, coumestrol - 93%, genistein - 93%, luteolin - 89% and apigenin - 238%) with a concomitant increase of 1.5-3.0 times in the activity of enzymes related to their biosynthetic routes." Such findings, in the words of the four Brazilian researchers, "indicate changes in the pool of defense-related flavonoids in soybeans due to increased carbon availability, which may differentially alter the responsiveness of soybean plants to pathogens in CO2 atmospheric concentrations such as those predicted for future decades." Put more simply, the ongoing rise in the air's CO2 content will likely increase the ability of soybeans to withstand the attacks of various plant diseases in the years and decades to come, helping the world to better meet the challenge of feeding its still-growing population. In summation, it would appear from the several findings listed above, and taken in their entirety, that elevated CO2 has the ability to significantly ameliorate the deleterious effects of various stresses imposed upon legume plants by numerous pathogenic invaders. More research, however, would help to further clarify the situation. Nevertheless, the large number of ways highlighted above in which elevated CO2 has been demonstrated to increase plant resistance to pathogen attack gives reason to believe that plants will gain the advantage as the air's CO2 content continues to climb in the years ahead, giving them the ability to successfully deal with pathogenic organisms and the damage they have traditionally inflicted on these important plants. . ALT CAUSES ALT CAUSES – CFCs No solvency – CFCs cause warming and not CO2 Bastasch 13 (Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller News Foundation, “Report: CO2 not responsible for global warming,” 05/30/2013.)

Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) — not carbon emissions — are the real culprit behind global warming, claims a new study out of the University of Waterloo. “Conventional thinking says that the emission of human-made non-CFC gases such as carbon dioxide has mainly contributed to global warming. But we have observed data going back to the Industrial Revolution that convincingly shows that conventional understanding is wrong,” said Qing-Bin Lu, a science professor at the University of Waterloo and author of the study. “In fact, the data shows that CFCs conspiring with cosmic rays caused both the polar ozone hole and global warming,” Lu said. Lu’s findings were published in the International Journal of Modern Physics B and analyzed data from 1850 to the present. Lu’s study runs counter to the long- standing argument that carbon dioxide emissions were the driving force behind global warming. Recently scientists warned that carbon concentrations were nearing the 400 parts per million level. Scientists say that carbon dioxide levels must be lowered to 350 ppm to avoid the severe impacts of global warming. “The 400-ppm threshold is a sobering milestone and should serve as a wake-up call for all of us to support clean-energy technology and reduce emissions of greenhouse gases before it’s too late for our children and grandchildren,” said Tim Lueker, an oceanographer and carbon cycle researcher who is a member of the Scripps CO2 Group. Lu notes that data from 1850 to 1970 show carbon emissions increasing due to the Industrial Revolution. However, global temperatures stayed constant. “The conventional warming model of CO2, suggests the temperatures should have risen by 0.6°C over the same period, similar to the period of 1970-2002,” reads the study’s press release. CFCs “are nontoxic, nonflammable chemicals containing atoms of carbon, chlorine, and fluorine” that are used to make “aerosol sprays, blowing agents for foams and packing materials, as solvents, and as refrigerants” according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The Montreal Protocol phased out the production of CFCs as they were believed to be linked to ozone depletion. According to the National Institutes of Health, CFCs are considered a greenhouse gas, like carbon dioxide, because they absorb heat in the atmosphere and send some of it back to the earth’s surface, which contributes to global warming. ALT CAUSES – METHANE Methane is over 20 times worse than CO2 – aff doesn’t solve Mark 12 (Jason, news writer for Earth Island Journal, “Methane’s Contribution to Global Warming Is Worse than You Thought,” AlterNet, 8/21/12.)

Methane is 21 times more heat-trapping than carbon dioxide.” If you’re a frequent reader of environmental websites, no doubt you’ve seen some version of that sentence many times. The “twenty-times” figure is the most common way of explaining how methane (or CH4, or uncombusted natural gas) reacts in the atmosphere. Just one problem: It’s not entirely accurate — at least not in the time-scale we should be using to think about how to tackle greenhouse gas emissions. Actually, any CH4 released today is at least 56 times more heat-trapping than a molecule of C02 also released today. And because of the way it reacts in the atmosphere, the number is probably even higher, according to research conducted by Drew Shindell, a scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Center. So why is the 21 times figure the one that gets bandied about? Because methane breaks down much faster than carbon dioxide. While CO2 remains in the atmosphere for at least a century (and probably much, much longer, according to Stanford’s Ken Caldeira), CH4 lasts only about a dozen years. When the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change had to come up with a way for comparing different greenhouse gases, it decided to use a century baseline to calculate a molecule’s “global warming potential.” ALT CAUSES – FARMING Farming is 18% of greenhouse emissions Walsh 8 (Bryan Walsh senior writer for TIME magazine covering the economy and the environment “Meat: Making Global Warming Worse”, TIME, Sept. 10, 2008 ) By the numbers, Pachauri is absolutely right. In a 2006 report, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) concluded that worldwide livestock farming generates 18% of the planet's greenhouse gas emissions by comparison, all the world's cars, trains, planes and boats account for a combined 13% of greenhouse gas emissions . Much of livestock's contribution to global warming come(s) from deforestation, as the growing demand for meat results in trees being cut down to make space for pasture or farmland to grow animal feed. Livestock takes up a lot of space — nearly one-third of the earth's entire landmass. In Latin America, the FAO estimates that some 70% of former forest cover has been converted for grazing. Lost forest cover heats the planet, because trees absorb CO2 while they're alive and when they're burned or cut down, the greenhouse gas is released back into the atmosphere. Then there's manure — all that animal waste generates nitrous oxide, a greenhouse gas that has 296 times the warming effect of CO2. And of course, there is cow flatulence: as cattle digest grass or grain, they produce methane gas, of which they expel up to 200 L a day. Given that there are 100 million cattle in the U.S. alone, and that methane has 23 times the warming impact of CO2, the gas adds up. The worrisome news is that as the world economy grows, so does global meat consumption. Producing all that meat will do more than just warm the world; it will also raise pressure on land resources. The FAO estimates that about 20% of the planet's pastureland has been degraded by grazing animals, and increased demand for meat means increased demand for animal feed much of the world's grain production is fed to animals rather than to humans. (The global spike in grain prices over the past year is in large part due to the impact on grain supplies of the growing demand for meat.) The expanded production of meat has been facilitated by industrial feedlots, which bleed antibiotics and other noxious chemicals. ALT CAUSES – CHINA

No solvency – China is the world’s largest polluter of greenhouse gases Borenstein 13 (SETH BORENSTEIN, staff writer for the Associated Press, “China's Carbon Emissions Directly Linked To Rise In Daily Temperature Spikes, Study Finds,” Huffington Post, 4/12/13.)

China, the world's largest producer of carbon dioxide, is directly feeling the man-made heat of global warming, scientists conclude in the first study to link the burning of fossil fuels to one country's rise in its daily temperature spikes. China emits more of the greenhouse gas than the next two biggest carbon polluters — the U.S. and India — combined. And its emissions keep soaring by about 10 percent per year. While other studies have linked averaged-out temperature increases in China and other countries to greenhouse gases, this research is the first to link the warmer daily hottest and coldest readings, or spikes. Those spikes, which often occur in late afternoon and the early morning, are what scientists say most affect people's health, plants and animals. People don't notice changes in averages, but they feel it when the daily high is hotter or when it doesn't cool off at night to let them recover from a sweltering day. The study by Chinese and Canadian researchers found that just because of greenhouse gases, daytime highs rose 0.9 degree Celsius (1.7 degrees Fahrenheit) in the 46 years up to 2007. At night it was even worse: Because of greenhouse gases, the daily lows went up about 1.7 degrees Celsius (3 degrees Fahrenheit). China is the world's biggest producer and consumer of coal, which is the largest source of man-made carbon dioxide emissions. While the country has made huge investments in alternative energy such as wind, solar and nuclear in recent years, its heavy reliance on coal is unlikely to change any time soon. About 90 percent of the temperature rise seen by the researchers could be traced directly to man-made greenhouse gases, the study said.

China has increased global emissions by nearly 70 percent in the past decade Nandi 13 (Jayashree Nandi, staff writer for the Time of India, “China represents 68% of increase in global CO2 emissions, India represents 8%: Study,” 4/15/13.) India represented 8% of the increase in global energy-related CO2 emissions between 2000 and 2010 according to a report by US based Climate Policy Initiative (CPI). In contrast, China represented a whopping 68% of the increase in global CO2 emissions. The study released on Monday at The Brookings Institution in Washington DC, claims to have analysed the impact of three decades of implementation of various kinds of policies to curb climate change in - India, China, Brazil, the EU, and the US. It says that impact of these policies has accelerated despite an impasse in international climate negotiations. **A2: NAVAL POWER ADV ALT CAUSE Alt causes to low naval power, aff doesn’t solve Moreland, 9 James D. "Structuring a Flexible, Affordable Naval Force to Meet Strategic Demand in the 21st Century." Naval Engineers Journal 121.1 (2009): 35-51. Print. As the pace of change accelerates in every aspect of life in the United States, the naval enterprise is faced with new and more complex economic, demographic, social, technological, security, and other challenges. We can either drive the future direction or become a victim of the future that someone else creates for us. Our naval capabilities need to be transformed through the co-evolution of technological concepts and organizational relationships with the priority being cultural change— a change in attitudes, beliefs, and values. Trust and cooperation are not brought about at a moment's notice; they must be established over time as part of the culture. This cultural transformation is required due to the drastic changes occurring in the strategic context: movement from Industrial Age to the Information Age, shifts in the threat environment, and falling barriers to competition in many warfare domains. The Maritime Strategy reinforced the US military's commitment to protect the homeland and win our nation's wars while equally stressing our ability and commitment to prevent wars. The challenge is to apply seapower in a manner that protects US vital interests while promoting greater collective security, stability, and trust. The strategy recognized six major strategic imperatives for US seapower: (1) limiting regional conflict, (2) deterring major power war, (3) winning wars if deterrence fails, (4) contributing to homeland defense, (5) fostering and sustaining cooperative relationships with international partners, and (6) preventing or mitigating disruptions and crisis. Core capabilities mentioned in the strategy with respect to traditional warfighting and diplomacy are forward presence, deterrence, sea control, and power projection. In addition to these major roles, two additional core capabilities have been added to address maritime security and humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. POLITICS LINKS Plan is unpopular with republican and drains Obama’s political capital

Suzanne Goldenberg, The Guardian, Friday, July 20, 2011. U.S. Navy defends ‘great green fleet’ from Republican attacks www.rawstory.com/rs/2012/07/20/u-s-navy-defends-great-green-fleet-from- republican-attacks/

The US Navy has gone into battle to save its “great green fleet” from Republicans in Congress who are trying to sink the ambitious biofuel project in what should have been its finest hour.¶ The aircraft carrier USS Nimitz and a strike force of 71 jet fighters, helicopters and transport planes, set off on a demonstration voyage off the Hawaiian island of Oahu this week, powered by a 50-50 mix of conventional fuels and algae or .¶ An Australian Navy commander also joined the Nimitz in a biofuel- burning helicopter.¶ But the voyage that should have been the pinnacle of the navy’s green aspirations instead found the Pentagon and Obama administration fending off Republican attacks on the biofuels project.¶ In a telephone call with reporters on Thursday, the navy secretary, Ray Mabus, and Obama administration officials made their most public effort to date to head off moves in Congress to block the navy’s biofuels project.¶ Congress is considering a 2013 spending bill that would effectively shut down the navy’s green fleet, four years into the project.¶ The navy took its first steps to “greening” the fleet in 2009 and tested the first jet engines on the biofuels mix a year later. But the project became controversial late last year when the navy spent $450,000 on biofuels, paying about $15 a gallon for used chicken fat with a dash of algae, compared to $3.60 for conventional fuel.¶ A bill before the Senate, supported by Republicans Jim Inhofe and John McCain, would ban the navy from buying more biofuels unless the price drops to the same prices as conventional fuels. It also seeks to block the navy from spending on biofuel refineries – support that could help speed up the commercialisation of biofuels.

Great White Fleet is popular

NOAH SHACHTMAN, Writer for Wired Magizine, 11.28.12. Senate Votes to Save the Navy’s ‘Great Green Fleet’, http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2012/11/senate-green-fleet/

But several things changed after the legislative defeats. The Navy ran a successful, if limited, test of their biofuels during a brief demonstration sail of the “Great Green Fleet,” an alternatively powered carrier strike group. They pledged never to overpay for biofuels, ever, while the Solyndra scandal slid off the front pages. Behind the scenes, groups like the Pew Project on National Security, Energy and Climate lobbied lawmakers. Then, of course, President Obama won re-election. That left Republicans a little less eager for budget-cutting measures, and Democrats a little more inclined to back the president, who had strongly and vocally supported the biofuel push. ¶ On Wednesday, the Senate voted to strip away the anti-biofuel amendment, 62-37. Republicans John Barrasso, John Thune, Roy Blunt and Jerry Moran. So did Susan Collins, who missed the May vote on biofuels in the Armed Services Committee — allowing the amendment to pass by a single “yea.”¶ “DOD is the largest single user of oil in the world, consuming more than 355,000 barrels of oil per day in Fiscal Year 2011. Despite increased domestic production of traditional fossil fuels, rising global oil prices and market volatility caused DOD’s fuel bill to rise more than $19 billion in Fiscal Year 2011,” Collins and 37 of her colleagues wrote in a letter to the Senate’s leadership (.pdf), urging for the amendment to be taken out. “Alternative fuels will not supplant fossil fuels entirely; however, replacing even a fraction of the fuel consumed by DOD with domestic alternative fuels has the potential to advance U.S. national security, strategic flexibility, and insulate the defense budget against future spikes in the cost of fossil fuels.” NO SOLVENCY The Sequester kills military biofuel efforts

SYDNEY J. FREEDBERG JR, Deputy Editor Breaking Defense, June 07, 2013. Will Sequester Scuttle DoD’s Energy Efficiency Efforts?, http://breakingdefense.com/2013/06/07/will-sequester-scuttle-dods-energy- efficiency-efforts/

WASHINGTON: The Defense Department is the largest single consumer of energy in the United States. It consumes 1 percent of America’s massive demand, burning billions of gallons of fuel a year. Indeed, as Navy Secretary Ray Mabus said in a recent speech, DoD is “the largest single consumer of fossil fuels on the face of the earth.” And just getting that fuel to forward operating bases in Afghanistan means troops risks their lives daily in fuel convoys. So making the armed forces more energy-efficient is important for tactical, ecological, and budgetary reasons.¶ The problem is that it costs money now to save money later. Congressional Republicans have been particularly skeptical of Mabus’s ambitions for a “Great Green Fleet” of ships and jets (our favorite is the “Green Hornet,” as the biofuel version of the F-18 is known) that run on biofuels. Add to that skepticism the fact that the mandatory cuts known as sequestration are cramping DoD energy investments across the board. As our colleagues at BreakingEnergy reported this morning:

Solvency takeout for the advantage, the engines only work on biofuel 50% of the time Stein, Amanda. 31 Aug. 2012 "Navy.mil Home Page." NPS Researchers Evaluate Biofuels for Powering the Fleet. N.p.,. Web. 07 July 2013.

"We know you can't go 100 percent biofuel because in aviation or ground-based systems, existing seals rely on particular ingredients found in conventional petroleum fuels which causes them to swell and provide proper sealing," said Brophy. "If you put them in biofuel, they tend to swell only a fraction of what is expected. Liquids contained within the engine are kept in by seals around a piston or a shaft, and if the seal is not expanding as expected, they leak. This has resulted in aircraft returning with significant leaks, so it's a big problem." "The question was how much biofuel can the engines handle, and 50/50 worked," Brophy said. "But can you do 70/30? We don't really know the demarcation line between what fraction of biofuel you can run, but 50/50 is what the Navy has selected to date because we know it works." One of the challenges with biofuels is that the scarcity of the product makes it more expensive than the fuels the Navy currently uses. To harvest algae and camelina, a member of the mustard family, in quantities large enough to fuel the fleet is a challenge, and one that has driven up the cost of production for the biofuels. For the three-day Great Green Fleet Exercise that took place during the 23rd Rim of the Pacific Exercise in July, the Navy purchased 450,000 gallons of biofuel to run the blend in two destroyers and several dozen planes for two to three days. Alternative fuels cause tech damage and only provide half the power Fudge, Tom. Jan. 2013 " Could Help Solve The Navy's Oil Dependence." Algae Fuel Could Help Solve The Navy's Oil Dependence. N.p.,. Web. 07 July 2013.

The Navy ships and aircraft in San Diego still run predominantly on petroleum. But that may change soon. In fact, though Goudreau works at the Pentagon, he said he was standing on a pier in San Diego last fall to see a Navy ship pull away under the power of biofuel. What’s more, one of the alternatives the Navy is testing is algae fuel, which San Diego scientists are working to develop. Goudreau said the Navy's search for alternative fuels has shown that some are far from ideal. He said biodiesel can damage equipment and gum up filters. Another alternative, ethanol, has low energy density. Fill a ship's tank with that, he said, and it will go only half as far. What the Navy needs are fuels that can literally take the place of petroleum. The Navy calls them drop- in fuels. "The key for us is to get an operational fuel that will go straight into our aircraft and straight into our ships,” said Goudreau, “without having to change any of the engineering inside the ships, and without having to change any of the storage or distribution infrastructure. It's got to be a true drop-in fuel." And this is where algae comes in. Algae fuel is an alternative the Navy is testing. UC San Diego molecular biologist Steve Mayfield is a founder of Sapphire Energy, a San Diego-based company that is already producing algae fuel at its demonstration plant in New Mexico. Some of it has been converted for use as jet fuel. Mayfield now serves on the company's science advisory board. He said the Navy has a proud history of transitioning between energy sources. TURNS Turn: Biofuels leads to exploited workers, leads to food insecurity and has poor power density-tons of warrants Bryce, Robert. May 2013. "Article | Navy Captain Guns Down Biofuels." Article | Navy Captain Guns Down Biofuels. N.p., Web. 07 July 2013. .

Imagine if the US military developed a weapon that could threaten millions around the world with hunger, accelerate global warming, incite widespread instability and revolution, provide our competitors and enemies with cheaper energy, and reduce America’s economy to a permanent state of recession. What would be the sense and the morality of employing such a weapon? We are already building that weapon—it is our biofuels program. For the sake of our national energy strategy and global security, we must face the sober facts and reject biofuels while advocating an overall national energy strategy compatible with the laws of chemistry, physics, biology, and economics. To be certain, there are many critics of the biofuels business. Peter Brabeck-Letmathe, the chairman of the Swiss food giant Nestle has declared that using food crops to make biofuels is "absolute madness." Just a few days ago, Alan Shaw, the former CEO of Codexis, the first "advanced" (made from non-food crops) biofuel company to be publicly traded on a US stock exchange, said flatly that it was impossible to convert crop waste, wood, and plants like switchgrass into motor fuel and do so economically. Shaw said it was wrong to base the motor fuel industry on plants. "The feedstock is wrong," he said. Another high-profile critic of the biofuel madness: Jean Ziegler, a former member of the Swiss Parliament who served as the UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food from 2000 to 2008. In August, Ziegler will publish his new book Betting on Famine: Why the World Still Goes Hungry. (I’ve read an advance copy of the book and have provided a blurb for it.) Ziegler’s book is an angry one. In it, he describes his visits to biofuel plantations all over the world – Brazil, Colombia, Cameroon, and India — and in each location, he finds similar stories: exploited workers and expropriated land. Ziegler writes that the companies that produce biofuels have succeeded at convincing the public and politicians in Western countries that "energy from plant sources constitutes the miracle weapon against climate change. Yet their argument is a lie." Last month, the British think tank, Chatham House, released a blistering report on biofuels which said the use of biofuels "increases the level and volatility of food prices with detrimental impacts on the food security of low-income food- importing countries." It went on, saying that due to land use changes, emissions from the production of biodiesel made from vegetable oils is "worse for the climate than fossil diesel." Finally, it says that the current 5-percent mandate for biofuel use in the UK will cost the country’s motorists "in the region of $700 million this year." But back to Kiefer. His massively footnoted takedown of biofuels hinges not on moral cries about higher food prices, even though that’s one his arguments. Instead, he hammers the physics and math. He points out that biofuels have poor power density, a term that refers to the amount of energy flow that can be harnessed from a given area, volume, or mass. "Only about 0.1 percent of sunlight is translated into biomass by the typical terrestrial plant," writes Kiefer. The result, "an anemic power density of only 0.3 watts per square meter." Kiefer goes on to point out that power density on solar photovoltaic panels is about 6 watts per square meter, or 20 times more. The low power density of biofuels means that vast amounts of land are needed to produce significant quantities of fuel. For example, to replace all US oil needs with corn-based ethanol, writes Kiefer, would require about 700 million acres of land. That would be "37 percent of the total area of the continental United States, more than all 565 million acres of forest, and more than triple the current amount of annually harvested cropland." Like biodiesel better? Kiefer calculates that relying on soy biodiesel to replace domestic oil needs would "require 3.2 billion acres—one billion more than all US territory including Alaska." Kiefer’s 38-page paper includes more than 100 footnotes and a half dozen charts or tables. That effort makes the Obama administration’s response to Kiefer’s report look all the more, well, anemic. Strategic Studies Quarterly published two documents one, a rebuttal from the Defense Department, the other from the Energy Department. The first response, written by Adam L. Rosenberg, whose title is Deputy Director for Technology Strategy, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Operational Energy Plans and Programs, has just five paragraphs and no footnotes or references to citations. Rosenberg dismissed Kiefer’s report as offering "interesting but ultimately misleading opinions." Rosenberg continued, saying the defense department "has a policy of only purchasing operation quantities" of biofuels if they are "cost competitive with conventional fuels." (The biofuel that was used by the Navy on Earth Day 2010 cost about $67.50 per gallon.) The other response, from Zia Haq, whose title is Lead Analyst/DPA Coordinator, Department of Energy Technologies Office, has 14 paragraphs, and not a single citation or footnote. Despite this lack of supporting evidence, Haq claims that Keifer had "tailored" his report by relying exclusively on studies that had "negative points of views and results for biofuels." To be certain, the amount of money the US military is spending on biofuels remains fairly small. The Navy’s current-year budget request for biofuels was about $70 million. But Kiefer’s report, along with the new report from Chatham House, is appearing at a time when the biofuel sector is struggling mightily both economically and politically. The European Union is in the midst of a fierce fight over biofuels. The EU has passed a mandate requiring 10 perce Not of all transportation energy to come from renewable sources by 2020. Nearly all of that would have to come from biofuels. But biofuels’ land use requirements and their scant or non-existent climate benefits, have resulted in a growing political effort to roll back the mandates. Last week, the Irish Times reported that biofuel companies and their lobbyists have been sending three emails per hour to a key EU official in an effort to preserve their mandate. Turn-Oil dependence good keeps the dollar on top Mutasem, Sam. Mar. 2012 "Comments." Electric Power Articles. N.p.,. Web. 07 July 2013. .

On the other hand, if we drive to reduce the global dependence on oil, until we find an alternative, we will negatively impact the US economy and the US consumer. One fact that most do not realize is that all the oil traded globally is nominated in US dollar. What does that mean? As the demand on oil increase so does the price. As a result the demand on the US dollar will increase and so will the purchasing power of the American Consumer. The Dollar...remains King! Therefore the drive to reduce dependence on oil may have its benefits, but it will come at a cost that should be mitigated as an integral part of the strategy to reduce dependence on oil. Reducing dependence on oil cannot be approached with a tunnel vision strategy because the lower the dependence on oil the lower the demand on the dollar and the lower the purchasing power of the American consumer. So, what is more...a matter of National Security? In my opinion there is no alternative to a diversified strategy particularly when it comes to energy and natural resources. This includes diversification in the fuel mix we use, the sources of the fuels, and the markets we target. Although we should continue to develop and advance renewable energy, there is no question in my mind that oil, natural gas, and coal will remain the dominant fuels for the foreseeable future because these fuels are abundant and economical. What we need to focus on is making these fuels more environmentally friendly by aggressively investing and developing new technologies to accomplish that. Yes, with such a strategy, there will remain uncertainties that we will have to deal with. However this approach will mitigate our risks and help...Keep the Dollar as King.

Turn: Oil dependence key to maintaining ties with critical partners in the Middle East. Fisher, Max. Apr. 2010 "The Upside of Depending on Foreign Oil." The Atlantic. N.p.,. Web. 07 July 2013. .

The top ten oil exporters to the U.S., which account for half of all U.S. consumption, read like a State Department tourism warning list: , Venezuela, Nigeria, Iraq, Angola, Russia, Colombia, and Brazil. (To be fair, Canada has long been our number one oil source, and Mexico alternates with Saudi Arabia for the number two spot.) But keep in mind that most of these countries need our money a lot more then we need their oil. If Saudi Arabia and the U.S. suddenly ended our trade tomorrow, for example, the U.S. and global economies would not suffer nearly as much as Saudi Arabia's. The Saudis understand this and so want to keep U.S. and Saudi interests aligned. As a result, buying Saudi oil gets us a lot more than just energy. It gets us a dedicated ally that wields unparalleled influence in a part of the world where we desperately need it: the Middle East. The Saudi royal family has put their wily intelligence service at our disposal and allowed sprawling U.S. military bases onto their soil. In 1992, the Saudis even exiled one of their own on America's behalf: A prominent, wealthy, and popular humanitarian and freedom fighter named Osama bin Laden. Saudi royalty risked a violent backlash by expelling bin Laden to Sudan, but U.S. officials had demanded his ouster. That's no small favor. It would be almost as if the United States deported Google CEO Eric Schmidt to Honduras at the request of angry Chinese officials. The Saudis came to our aid again in 1996 when they convinced the Sudanese regime to themselves deport bin Laden. Bin Laden's anti-American terrorism did not begin until he fled to Afghanistan, where the United States then had little influence. In the decade since, he has moved between there and Pakistan, two countries with which the U.S. has no meaningful economic ties save foreign aid. Unlike with Saudi Arabia, our pleas to those governments to help us rout bin Laden went largely ignored. If our oil-greased relationships with other top producing states are half as close as the U.S.-Saudi partnership, it will give us much- needed leverage over some of this century's biggest emerging threats. In Nigeria, we can pressure the government to peacefully contain the state's alarming increase in terrorism. For Iraq, the economic ties with America would be an important counterbalance to Iran's religious and political influence. As for Venezuela, no matter how antagonistic President Hugo Chavez gets, he would be a lot worse if we didn't take close to a million barrels off his hands every day. US DOLLAR Dollar Key to US HEG Global Research, 19 May 2013 "Threat to the Hegemony of the US Dollar? Rigged Gold Bullion Market." Before It's News.. Web. 25 May 2013. .

If the dollar were not the reserve currency, Washington would not be able to finance its wars or continue to run large trade and budget deficits. Therefore, protecting the exchange value of the dollar is Washington’s prime concern if it is to remain a superpower. The threats to the dollar are alternative monies– currencies that are not being created in enormous quantities, gold and silver, and Bitcoins, a digital currency.

Currency collapse leads to global economic collapse and an end to democracy Koenig, Don. May 2013 "The Coming Economic Crash Caused by World Debt." The Coming Economic Crash Caused by World Debt. N.p.,. Web. 29 May 2013. .

The more there is a risk of a default or currency devaluation the more we are going to be charged in interest to finance our national debt. We may be able to pay $20 trillion dollars of debt at 3 percent interest with some pain but at 6 percent interest or above for any extended period of time it will cause total economic collapse. And unless we go into a full fledged depression interest rates will rise much more than that. When the US economy goes down it will take the world economy with it. This economic collapse will cause great civil unrest all over the world, cities will be filled with riots and later with troops. Democracy will be dead and people will look to demigods to solve their problems. When the economy of the West crashes Russia may get ideas to invade the Middle East to seize its riches. STATUS QUO SOLVES Nothing is stopping the Great Green Fleet now

Tina Casey, specializes in military and corporate sustainability, advanced technology, emerging materials, biofuels, and water and wastewater issues. Tina’s articles are reposted frequently on Reuters, Scientific American, and many other sites, May 28, 2013. Come Hell Or High Water, Great Green Fleet Will Sail, http://cleantechnica.com/2013/05/28/military-biofuel-program- gets-three-new-/#ScEHMzzopm0XKEey.99

The US Navy plans to launch an entire biofuel-enabled Great Green Fleet in 2016, complete with fighter jets, helicopters, destroyers, and other ships, despite attempts by certain members of Congress to block it from buying biofuels. The notorious budget sequester hasn’t proven to be much of an obstacle to the military biofuel program, either. In the latest development, the Department of Defense has just nailed down $16 million in matching funds for three companies to build biofuel refineries to the tune of 150 million gallons in capacity by 2016, all using non-edible sourcing including animal fats and other waste from food processors.

The Great Green Fleet is already in effect

Peter Lehner, Switchboard is the staff blog of the Natural Resources Defense Council, the nation’s most effective environmental group, July 31, 2012. Navy Launches Great Green Fleet, Powered by Biofuels, http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/plehner/navy_launches_great_green_flee.ht ml

The U.S. Navy launched its Great Green Fleet recently at RIMPAC, the world's largest naval exercise, which takes place biannually off the coast of Hawaii. Squadrons of F/A-18 Hornet fighter jets, an SH60-Seahawk helicopter, E-2 Hawkeye airborne early warning aircraft and other planes took off from the deck of the USS Nimitz, all powered by a biofuel blend, demonstrating, for the first time, biofuels in action at sea.¶ “The military has done a lot of things that starts a tidal wave throughout our culture, and I think this is one of those things,” Lt. Commander Jason Fox, a Hawkeye pilot, told Forbes.¶ The Navy has been testing biofuels for years, as part of a broader military effort to reduce vulnerability to oil prices and improve combat capability in general through renewable energy and efficiency. Naval Secretary Ray Mabus pointed out that the Navy got hit with a billion-dollar energy bill in May due to rising oil prices. He told reporters, “We simply have to figure out a way to get American made homegrown fuel that is stable in price, that is competitive with oil that we can use to compete with oil. If we don’t we’re still too vulnerable.”

Oil shock won’t kill military readiness – already committed to alternative energy

John Gartner, Forbes, 5/11/2012. U.S. Military Not Retreating on Clean Energy, http://www.forbes.com/sites/pikeresearch/2012/05/11/u-s-military- not-retreating-on-clean-energy/

While many government officials nervously await the outcome of the November elections and speculate as to its implications for the cleantech sector, one federal department is likely to be relatively unaffected regardless of the outcome: Defense.¶ According to panelists at the recent “Mission Critical: Clean Energy and the U.S. Military“ event in Denver, the military’s growing commitment to reducing its use of fossil fuel, for both national security and economic reasons, will not waver regardless of who’s in charge in the White House or the Congress. ¶ Senator Mark Udall of Colorado rattled off a series of statistics that underline the reasons for the military’s emphasis on becoming as green as the army’s uniforms: ¶ The military is 25 percent of government’s energy burden¶ The Pentagon is biggest consumer of fossil fuels in the world, burning 300,000 barrels of oil per day at a cost of more than $30 million in fuel per day¶ A $1 increase in the price of oil increases DoD’s energy cost by $100 million per year¶ 1 out of every 50 convoys in a combat zone results in a casualty, and the Army has accrued more than 3300 fatalities in convoys since 2001¶ Convoy and security costs $100 per gallon for combat zones¶ Udall emphasized that the military is implementing many fuel-reducing technologies because of the high human price paid in getting fuel to the front lines. “Saving energy saves lives,” he said, adding that adopting clean energy technologies is “one of the most patriotic things we can do.”¶ Despite any changes that might occur in the leadership in the executive or legislative branches, the military will continue to be an early adopter of clean technologies that enable it to become more energy independent. These includes making military bases self-sufficient (and less vulnerable to attack) by creating microgrids, and purchasing a large number of hybrid and electric vehicles for its non-combat fleet. ADVANTAGE CP

Text: The Department of the Navy should in invest in algae ethanol

Algae investment solves the aff better than sugar

Lieutenant Alaina M. Chambers, U.S. Navy, and Steve A. Yetiv. Lieutenant Chambers is a master’s student in the Graduate Program in International Studies at Old Dominion University, in Norfolk, Virginia. is University Professor of Political Science and International Studies at Old Dominion University THE GREAT GREEN FLEET: The U.S. Navy and Fossil-Fuel Alternatives, Naval War College Review, Summer 2011, Vol. 64, No. 3, http://www.usnwc.edu/getattachment/72d7de2c-b537-4466-9b4b- 809c205d1747/The-Great-Green-Fleet--The-U-S--Navy-and-Fossil-Fu

Navy contracts are being extended for algae-based biofuel as well. While¶ camelina has been more rapidly deployed, algae could be an able competitor.¶ Through a contract with Solazyme, in southern California, the Navy will allocate ¶ $8.5 million toward 1,500 gallons for aircraft testing and twenty thousand for ¶ maritime use, significantly more money per gallon than it will spend on the¶ camelina option.37 DoN accepted a delivery of twenty thousand gallons from¶ Solazyme in 2010 and extended a new order for 150,000 gallons.38Like camelina,¶ algae do not compete with traditional food crops. Algae can be grown on brackish, saltwater, or nonarable desert land, reducing the need to divert freshwater.39¶ A skeptic might point to the sheer scale of the Navy’s biofuel goals. In order to¶ supply the Navy’s entire current demand for aviation fuel with algae, an estimated five hundred square miles of land would be required to grow the plants.¶ To bring the cost down to two dollars a gallon, carbon dioxide would have to be¶ transported from nearby conventional power plants;40 otherwise the cost jumps¶ to forty-four dollars.41 Similarly, without a program to manage land and infrastructure for biofuels, camelina grown in the amounts necessary to meet DoN¶ demand would require an area equivalent to between a quarter and a third of the¶ state of Montana.42 At present, these obstacles are prohibitive, as they are for¶ other forms of green energy. However, they could be surmounted as technology ¶ progresses and economies of scale emerge. Advances, for instance, in battery¶ technology have allowed for a variety of electric and hybrid vehicles to gain traction in the market—a development that would not have been possible a decade¶ ago.¶ The Department of the Navy is not alone in its attempts to develop and test algaeand camelina-based fuels and bring down the costs of production. As jet fuel accounts for half of the Defense Department’s fuel consumption, the Air Force is¶ testing similar technology to develop a JP-8 equivalent.43 Both services could¶ benefit from the other’s success, as could the aviation industry. Additionally, the¶ Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency has awarded a $34.8 million contract to two companies to find ways to reduce the cost of algae-based fuel to¶ three dollars per gallon.44 This effort has been met with skepticism, but the ¶ agency’s methods have proved successful in the past—notably with the computer mouse, the Global Positioning System, and the internet.45 ELECTROFUELS ADV CP 1NC Text: The United States federal government should fund the development of electrofuels.

US government funding is needed to develop electrofuels Daily Kos 12 Daily Kos: ARPA-E's Electrofuels Program must die! http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/09/24/1135981/-ARPA-E-s-Electrofuels- Program-must-die# 09/24/13. DA-07/07/13 This is why the Electrofuels Program must scatter its seeds and die. The results are too good, and the potential payoff too big, to allow the science to wither on the vine, or even to grow slowly on its own as it might in the hands of existing chemical companies. The science and engineering of the Program must receive a massive stream of ongoing funding, through the research arms of several Departments of the US government. The results of the research already completed should be parceled out to many new teams of scientists and engineers, along with the necessary funding to hasten development, and it can and should be done in a manner that includes Lamonica’s “end customers.”

Electrofuels hugely more efficient than even sugar ethanol Lovett 06/17 Richard A. Lovett. National Geographic: Electrofuels: Charged Microbes May "Poop Out" a Gasoline Alternative http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2013/06/130617- electrofuels-using-microbes-to-make-biofuel/ 06/17/13. Da-07/07/13 Conventional biofuel production, such as the refining of ethanol from corn or sugar cane, has successfully displaced about 10 percent of the motor gasoline in the United States and at times, depending on price, about 50 percent of the gas in Brazil. But biofuels also are controversial for a variety of reasons, including that they divert grain and land from food production. (See related story: "Water Demand for Energy to Double by 2035.") The process of making biofuel from plants is also inherently inefficient. Even the best energy crops, Toone said, can produce only about ten tons of dry biomass per acre per year. That sounds like a lot, but it's actually not. "If you go back and say, 'What does that represent as a fraction of the total solar radiation that fell on that acre of land in a year?' it's less than one percent," Toone said. (See related: "A Rainforest Advocate Taps the Energy of the Sugar Palm.") Electrofuels offer an entirely new way to harvest the sun's energy—one that might be considerably more efficient. Not to mention that they don't require farmland, tractors, fertilizer, or irrigation water. But that's only half the process. Rather than using the sun's energy to grow and produce biomass for conversion into ethanol or other biofuels, electrofuels bacteria have been further modified to produce chemicals that can be used as fuel. "The advantage of the electrofuels approach is that it's all very direct and highly efficient," said Derek Lovley, a microbiologist at the University of Massachusetts whose lab was one of the 14 to work under the ARPA-e grants. "And you don't need arable land to grow plants. You can basically do it anywhere there's electricity. You basically have much higher efficiency, much less water usage, and much less environmental degradation." Also useful is the fact that the fuels can be designed to be much more practical than the ethanol that is currently the primary focus of U.S. biofuels production. "We're focusing on butanol," said Lovley. Butanol is another fuel alcohol, but with a molecule about twice as large as ethanol. It's a far better fuel than ethanol, Lovley said, describing it as a "drop-in gasoline substitute"—meaning that it can be used directly in the gas tanks of today's automobiles. (See related: "Whisky a Go Go: Can Scotland's Distillery Waste Boost Biofuels?") Although more and more flexible-fuel vehicles are being sold in the United States—and they dominate the market in Brazil-the vast majority of U.S. cars are not designed to run on large amounts of ethanol. Ethanol is typically blended as a 10 percent additive to a mix that is 90 percent conventional gasoline to meet the requirements of automobiles; this so-called "blend wall" is one of the barriers hindering wider biofuels use in the United States. Butanol, on the other hand "can be used as a sole fuel," Lovley said. "More importantly, it can be stored and distributed in existing pipelines. You can't do that with ethanol because ethanol absorbs water." PROCESS Electrofuel process Lovett 06/17 Richard A. Lovett. National Geographic: Electrofuels: Charged Microbes May "Poop Out" a Gasoline Alternative http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2013/06/130617- electrofuels-using-microbes-to-make-biofuel/ 06/17/13. Da-07/07/13 To produce electrofuels, researchers feed carbon dioxide to microorganisms, and run an electrical current through the tank in which they are grown. Electrofuels microbes are derived from exotic bacteria that live underground or in other places (such as geothermal springs) where photosynthesis doesn't occur. In the wild, these organisms survive by "eating" electrons derived from minerals in the surrounding soil. But in the lab, their genes are transferred to other bacteria that can more easily be grown in vats hooked up to a power grid that can provide the needed electricity. If the power source is solar, the outcome is an alternative to photosynthesis—the process by which green plants harness sunlight. TIMEFRAME Timeframe of 5 years to commercialize electrofuels City Wire 11 City Wire: UA team converts algae into fuel http://www.thecitywire.com/node/14793#.UdnMmflQFsk 03/01/11 DA- 07/07/13 It will take a lot of algae and land to make a dent in the use of gasoline in the U.S., but researchers at the University of Arkansas have developed a process they say could be commercialized within 5 years. A team of chemical engineers at the University of Arkansas has developed a method for converting common algae into butanol, a renewable fuel that can be used in existing combustible engines, according to a UA statement released Tuesday (Mar. 1). See impact of algae electrofuels within decade SNL 10 Sandia National Laboratories: Fueling the future with fish tank residue: Sandia scientist discusses use of algae as a biofuel https://share.sandia.gov/news/resources/news_releases/fueling-the-future- with-fish-tank-residue-sandia-scientist-discusses-use-of-algae-as-a- biofuel/#.UdnXIPlQFsk 02/18/10 DA-07/07/13 Pate was part of the DOE-sponsored team that drafted a report based on comments received both at the workshop and from public, and the report, which will outline the nation’s strategy in algal biofuel research, is expected to be published in the next few months and will help drive the nation’s algal biofuels efforts. Despite the challenges, Pate is confident that algae has a strong chance of becoming a viable source of transportation fuel in the long-term future. “People who are more realistic think this will take at least 10 years for research and investments to get it to the point where it has commercial viability,” Pate said. “I think the jury’s still out, but we’ll likely see an impact in the next decade.” MILITARY NEED Navy wants biofuels- preferably electrofuels under development Stoker 13 Liam Stoker: Electrically-efficient biofuels: the benefits and drawbacks. http://www.ship-technology.com/features/featureelectrically-efficient-biofuel- photosynthesis 03/14/13. Da-07/07/13 Biofuels, aided through investment and industry's increasing desire to become environmentally-friendly, have developed substantially since the first generation of bioalcohols and began to appear in the 1990s. Despite the clamour to reduce carbon footprints, work towards the increasing use of biofuels seemed to disregard efficiency. The US Navy, one of the principal biofuels converts, having invested significantly in their development and lauded missions including its Great Green Fleet, was forced to acknowledge that the use of biofuel was not economically-efficient following opposition to the programme in 2012. With biofuels costing roughly four times more than conventional fuels, the House Armed Services Committee placed a blanket ban on alternative fuels that cost more than traditional ones. Although political machinations could be blamed for this instance, it is evident that there is a clear need for biofuels to mature and develop greater efficiency in order to become a more viable option for shipping companies still reeling from the global economical crisis. ARPA-E and bypassing photosynthesis "The House Armed Services Committee placed a blanket ban on alternative fuels that cost more than traditional ones." The US Government's Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) has been tasked with furthering the maturation of such fuels by funding research and development. One area that has seen investment by ARPA-E is a rethink of the way in which biofuels are produced. The majority of biofuels currently produced are done using plants or algae and, as a result, rely on photosynthesis. Photosynthesis is in itself an inefficient process, as it requires solar energy in the first place. ARPA-E has suggested that, through using microorganisms that are capable of directly using energy from electricity and chemical compounds instead of solar, liquid transportation fuels could be produced up to ten times more efficiently than current biofuel production methods.

US Military interested in electrofuels now Spotts 11 Pete Spotts. Christian Science Monitor: Electrofuels: An oil alternative without the millenia of development time http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/electrofuels-oil-alternative-without- millenia-development-time 12/03/11 DA-07/07/13 The team is fueled by a grant from the US Energy Department's Advanced Research Projects Agency – Energy (ARPA-E). The agency is working with the Defense Department as the US military begins to shift from petroleum-based fuels to "drop in" biofuel replacements that can be used with today's internal-combustion engines. Less exotic approaches to produce biofuels already have supplied the military with limited amounts of petroleum-biofuel blends. In the near term, analysts say, the military probably will rely on companies that use such approaches to meet its renewable-fuel goals. But these simpler processes can require large amounts of water, and they release carbon dioxide, an atmospheric greenhouse gas. If Silver's team – one of 13 ARPA-E is funding to explore what it dubs "electrofuels" – is successful, it could help replace oil wells with bioreactors that run on wind, solar, or other renewable sources of electricity. Inside the bioreactors, electrified, re-engineered microbes would convert carbon dioxide gas into hydrocarbons that oil refineries could work with. FUNDING UP Funding for electrofuel projects up this year Lovett 06/17 Richard A. Lovett. National Geographic: Electrofuels: Charged Microbes May "Poop Out" a Gasoline Alternative http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2013/06/130617- electrofuels-using-microbes-to-make-biofuel/ 06/17/13. Da-07/07/13 What if you could make biofuels without using plants? Or oil without extracting anything from the ground? That's been the goal of the U.S. Department of Energy's "electrofuels" program, a $48 million research effort involving 14 separate projects that is wrapping up this year. Instead of relying on corn, sugar cane, or other plants to collect the sun's energy, electrofuels researchers use microorganisms . And instead of harvesting plants and other biomass and converting them into biofuels like ethanol, electrofuels researchers are genetically engineering microorganisms that, as one researcher put it, "poop out" chemicals that can burn directly in your gas tank. **A2: OIL DEPENDANCE UNIQUENESS US is energy independent now – no risk of oil shocks Steve Forbes, is chairman of Forbes Media and editor-in-chief of Forbes Magazine., July 2, 2013. Focus on economy, not climate: Column, http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2013/07/02/obama-oil-supplies- column/2480881/ How much longer will we hear empty claims fromPresident Obama, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid that the United States has only 3% of the world's oil supplies and therefore, "we can't drill our way out of the problem"? The recent increase in domestic oil and gas production is sending shock waves through the global energy economy and is bolstering the USA's standing among the energy- producing giants in the Middle East. Not only are U.S.-Middle East relations changing in a geopolitical sense, but also economically, as trade balances reflect increasing U.S. energy production.¶ According to a recent report from the Energy Information Administration, U.S. domestic crude-oil production in May exceeded oil imports for the first time in 16 years. Moreover, this past February, the U.S. met 88% of its own energy needs -- the highest rate since 1986. These milestones are in no small part due to the oil and natural gas boom and improved technologies such as hydraulic fracturing.¶ But that's not all. U.S. imports from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries have decreased more than 20% since 2010 with the International Energy Agency predicting that the U.S. could become the world's largest oil producer by 2020, and possibly energy independent by 2035.¶ These developments have considerable implications on U.S. foreign policy. If we continue developing our energy and manufacturing sectors, no longer will the U.S. have to kowtow to dictators of volatile nations for fear of disrupting our energy supply or rocking international markets. And we will feel far less compelled to intervene in foreign conflicts to stabilize world energy supplies. Indeed, the calculus for determining a threshold for intervention in another sovereign nation is changing in a promising way. The U.S. will always have a vested interest in a stable Middle East but the prospect -- and eventual realization -- of U.S. energy independence tips the scale and lessens the ability of rogue dictators to exercise their geopolitical control. SOLVENCY Cuba Closed over half of its Sugar producing fields and mills, the numbers simply point to the fact that Cuba doesn’t have enough infrastructure left to support the massive international investment needed to produce enough ethanol to solve for their advantage. José Alvarez 09 (@ The University Of Florida, The Current Restructuring of Cuba's Sugar Agroindustry, professor: Department of Food and Resource Economics, Original publication date January 2004. Revised August 2009. Reviewed June 2013. [http://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/pdffiles/FE/FE47200.pdf]) The numbers mentioned above, however, do not tell the whole story. A few calculations from the official Cuban data shown in Tables 1 and 2 help to better understand the magnitude of the current transformation and its regional impacts. For example, by reducing the number of raw mills from 156 to 85 (a 45.5% decrease), total daily grinding capacity declined from 647,200 to 404,700 metric tons (a 37.5% decrease), whereas average milling capacity went from 4,149 to 4,761 metric tons per mill (a 14.7% increase). With minor exceptions (due perhaps to the location of mills within important sugarcane production areas), the goal of eliminating small, inefficient factories appears to have been fulfilled. Of the 66 mills that are being dismantled or converted into museums, the majority had less than 3,000 metric tons grinding capacity. Although all the provinces have been impacted to some degree, a few have seen their sugar industries shrink considerably. Examples include Matanzas, La Habana, Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos, which have seen their number of mills decreasing to 38%, 40%, 46%, and 58%, respectively, of what they were before the restructuring process. While Cuba lists 400,000 workers in its sugar agroindustry, the methodology used to develop that figure has never been explained. Regardless of the exact number of people working in Cuba’s largest industry, the impact is by no means small. Shortly after the announcement was officially made, Cuba’s President Castro himself had to address the nation to calm the worries of those who were about to lose their jobs (Frank, 2002b). However, the nation’s fear was well founded since Cuba’s raw sugar mills are located in 100 of its 169 municipalities. This means that almost 100,000 displaced workers need to be retrained. While displaced workers receiving retraining will probably not be impacted too much, workers engaged in indirect activities will feel the repercussions of this process for a long time. A2 ETHANOL INDEPENDENCE Alternatives to Coal and Oil are being undercut by Low Prices in natural gas, responsible for emission reduction. DR. KENT MOORS 12, Global Energy Strategist, Money Morning August 23, 2012 [http://moneymorning.com/2012/08/23/oil-prices-are-higher-but-it-wont-be- much-help-for-alternative-energy/] With the movement to exploiting unconventional domestic sources of oil and gas, one of the primary arguments in favor of alternative energy is undercut. Absent any major breakthrough in technology (inverters for example, that would dramatically decrease the loss of electricity from solar and wind generation), the cost differential will remain. Despite the rise in oil and gas prices, alternatives will still be more expensive to utilize, even before considering the infrastructure expenses for delivery and support that would have to be introduced. The rise of shale gas and oil, along with the large volumes of other unconventional reserves present, make a move to alternatives less likely. Concerns about the economic recovery remain paramount, given the major position held by energy - both its availability and its cost. Once concerns about a double dip are over, Europe appears to have its house in order and financial cliffs are avoided, we may approach this differently. And genuine considerations about environmental stewardship may again become central to the discussion. But some of those concerns have come into focus with the recent announcement that carbon emissions have reached a 20-year low in the United States. This month, the U.S. E nergy I nformation A gency cited "low- priced natural gas" as the primary driver of the steep emissions decline, as natural gas is replacing more-carbon intensive coal as a greater source of electricity generation.

This does not bode well for the prospects of alternative energy. A2: L.A. REALATIONS/ECON Energy Interdependence With Latin America is key, Independence Turns Relations and Latin American Economy LISA VISCIDI | April 15, 2009 Obama should shift focusto interdependence on oil [http://www.chron.com/opinion/outlook/article/Viscidi-Obama-should- shift-focus-8232-to-1619453.php] When President Obama attends the Summit of the Americas in Trinidad and Tobago this week, he will have an opportunity to address one of the most pressing issues on his policy agenda — energy.

Yet, as the economic crisis absorbs most of his administration’s attention, lower oil prices make alternative energy sources look costlier and U.S. oil demand remains fairly solid despite the recession, an unfortunate reality is setting in. Oil imports, like it or not, will remain a substantial part of the U.S.’s energy base for decades to come. But there is also good news. The Summit of the Americas provides a forum for Obama to shift focus from energy independence to a more practical and even a more desirable goal — energy interdependence. Domestic oil fields, including those that are currently off limits to drilling, could not add enough crude to U.S. production to cover the country’s total demand, but sufficient untapped reserves lie right within our own neighborhood. The Western Hemisphere, already the source of half of the U.S.’s crude oil imports, holds the potential to vastly increase oil production and boost exports to meet the energy needs of the world’s largest oil consumer. Yet, those reserves have remained largely underexploited, due mainly to oil nationalism. Efforts by governments to maintain or expand state control over oil may make for popular politics, but they ultimately limit access to new technology and credit. The result is that governments kill the goose that lays the golden egg. Governments from Mexico to Venezuela have sidelined private investment without allocating proper funds and management capabilities to state oil companies to replace it. Mexico’s state oil company Pemex , underfunded and technologically behind the times, has been unable to produce a single commercial barrel of oil from deep waters in its portion of the Gulf of Mexico, while drilling flourishes on the U.S. side. Yet private oil companies have been snubbed for more than 70 years due to a constitutional ban on foreign ownership of . Venezuela, having boosted the role of national oil company Petroleos de Venezuela at the expense of private participation while siphoning off huge portions of the state firm’s profits to fund social welfare programs, has seen a 27 percent drop in oil production since 1997. Ecuador has also deterred private investment with fickle and exorbitant tax policies, and oil production there is also falling. Brazil may be moving in a similar direction. The decline in oil production from the region’s major producers has allowed exporters from the Middle East and Africa to increase their share of the U.S. market, resulting in long-term revenue losses for many Latin American countries. But this shift is far from inevitable, and the U.S. can contribute to reversing the trend. The Obama administration has vowed to take a more diplomatic approach to relations with fellow governments in the region, seeking partnerships rather than dictating terms. This is an important step toward establishing a framework for cooperation. More specifically, Obama should encourage commercial cooperation between state oil companies from the hemisphere and U.S. oil companies, which are key to exploiting the region’s untapped reserves Oil Interdependence Good

Global oil inter-dependence is the most secure strategy RICHA MISHRA, The hindu Business Lines, JULY 5, 2013. ‘A diversified energy basket is the key for survival,’ http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/a-diversified-energy-basket- is-the-key-for-survival/article4885490.ece?ref=wl_industry-and-economy Energy security is all about inter-dependence. No country’s energy system can thrive and survive on its own, says Aldo Flores-Quiroga, Secretary General, International Energy Forum.¶ Flores-Quiroga, who was recently in India, told Business Line that the “golden rule of energy security is to diversify the energy basket. In a world of integrated oil markets it is hard to think of any country with the ability to fully disengage itself and survive alone.”¶ In fact, countries strengthen their energy security when they acknowledge and embrace their interdependence, he added. This statement is somewhat at odds with the claims made by some experts that countries like the US won’t need support from other oil producers for meeting their future energy requirements.¶ The Saudi Arabia-headquartered IEF has members from consuming, producing and transit nations. The 89 member governments of the IEF include the countries of OPEC and the IEA as well as the governments of important emerging economies including Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Mexico, Oman, Russia, and South Africa.¶ It is important to understand the opportunities and challenges which the industry faces as it seeks to expand investments and promote global energy security, he said. Oil Shocks Good Bad Effects Of Oil Shocks are Outliers in the Data, Which Suggests that Future Shocks will be less than 1% for the United States, and Overall Improvement In global Economy. Roitman & Rasmussen 11 (25 August 2011, Tobias Rasmussen: Senior Economist, Middle East and Central Asia Department, IMF, Agustin Roitman: Economist, IMF) [http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/wp11194.pdf] Conventional wisdom has it that oil shocks are bad for oil-importing countries. This is grounded in the experience of slumps in many advanced economies during the 1970s. It is also consistent with the large body of research on the impact of higher oil prices on the US economy, although the magnitude and channels of the effect are still being debated. Our recent research indicates that oil prices tend to be surprisingly closely associated with good times for the global economy. Indeed, we find that the US has been somewhat of an outlier in the way that it has been negatively affected by oil price increases. Across the world, oil price shock episodes have generally not been associated with a contemporaneous decline in output but, rather, with increases in both imports and exports. There is evidence of lagged negative effects on output, particularly for OECD economies, but the magnitude has typically been small. Controlling for global economic conditions, and thus abstracting from our finding that oil price increases generally appear to be demand-driven, makes the impact of higher oil prices stand out more clearly. For a given level of world GDP, we do find that oil prices have a negative effect on oil- importing countries and also that cross-country differences in the magnitude of the impact depend to a large extent on the relative magnitude of oil imports. The effect is still not particularly large, however, with our estimates suggesting that a 25% increase in oil prices will typically cause a loss of real GDP in oil-importing countries of less than half of 1%, spread over 2 to 3 years. These findings suggest that the higher import demand in oil-exporting countries resulting from oil price increases has an important contemporaneous offsetting effect on economic activity in the rest of the world, and that the adverse consequences are mostly relatively mild and occur with a lag. T/F Argument Current US Domestic oil Production is about to Outpace Consumption by levels that will result in oil prices falling such that it triggers oil collapse. The Aff only pushes us closer to the event by reducing demand on oil. Leonardo Maugeri 12 @ Harvard, Belfer Center (June 2012, “Global Oil Production is Surging: Implications for Prices, Geopolitics, and the Environment”) [http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/maugeri_policybrief.pdf] United States Will Experience Unprecedented ¶ Output. There are enormous volumes of unconventional oil under development in the United ¶ States. Thanks to the technological revolution brought ¶ about by the combined use of horizontal drilling and ¶ hydraulic fracturing, the United States is currently ¶ exploiting huge and virtually untouched shale and ¶ tight oil fields, and production – although still in its ¶ infancy – is skyrocketing in these North Dakota and ¶ Texas fields. ¶ The extraction technologies are not new, but the ¶ combination of technologies used to exploit shale and ¶ tight oils has evolved. The technology can also be used ¶ to reopen and recover more oil from conventional, ¶ established oilfields. Taking into consideration ¶ limitation in transportation infrastructure and ¶ refining capacity, and environmental barriers to ¶ development, the United States could still increase ¶ oil production by 3.5 million barrels per day and ¶ conceivably produce a total of 11.6 mbd of crude oil ¶ and natural gas liquids per year by 2020, making it the ¶ second largest oil producer in the world, after Saudi ¶ Arabia. ¶ Oil Prices May Collapse. Contrary to prevailing ¶ wisdom that increasing global demand for oil will increase prices, the report finds oil production ¶ capacity is growing at such an unprecedented level ¶ that supply might outpace consumption. When the ¶ glut of oil hits the market, it could trigger a collapse ¶ in oil prices. ¶ While the age of “cheap oil” may be ending, it is still ¶ uncertain what the future level of oil prices might ¶ be. Technology may turn today’s expensive oil into ¶ tomorrow’s cheap oil. The oil market will remain ¶ highly volatile until 2015 and prone to extreme ¶ movements in opposite directions, representing a ¶ challenge for investors. After 2015, however, most of ¶ the oil exploration and development projects analyzed ¶ in the report will advance significantly and contribute ¶ to a shoring up of the world’s production capacity. ¶ This could provoke overproduction and lead to a ¶ significant, steady dip of oil prices, unless oil demand ¶ were to grow at a sustained yearly rate of at least 1.6 ¶ percent trough 2020.

**CHINA DA UNIQUENESS GENERIC China is increasing its economic engagement with Latin American countries now. Mallén 6/28 (Patricia Rey Mallén, Patricia covers Latin America for the International Business Times. Before joining IBT in May 2013, she worked at BBC America in New York, La República in Lima, La2 TV in Madrid and the UN in Brussels. She has also freelanced stories from Southern Africa, Australia and South East Asia. “Latin America Increases Relations With China: What Does That Mean For The US?” International Business Times. June 28, 2013. Accessed July 6, 2013 9:53 PM. http://www.ibtimes.com/latin-america-increases-relations-china-what-does-mean-us- 1317981) As if to confirm the declining hegemony of the United States as the ruling global superpower, China is gaining influence in its hemispheric "backyard," Secretary of State John Kerry's unintentionally insulting designation for Latin America.¶ China has had its sights on Latin America for the past decade and is now positioning itself as a competitive trade partner in the region. The populous, rapidly developing Asian nation covets oil, soybeans and gold, of which Latin America has plenty, and has been slowly but steadily increasing its presence and its trade with several countries there.¶ The U.S., whose history of blocking outside political influence in Latin America going back to the Monroe Doctrine, has been directing its attention elsewhere, as Michael Cerna of the China Research Center observed. “[The U.S.'] attention of late has been focused on Iraq and Afghanistan, and Latin America fell lower and lower on America’s list of priorities. China has been all too willing to fill any void,” Cerna said.¶ Between 2000 and 2009, China increased its two-way trade with Latin America by 660 percent, from $13 billion at the beginning of the 21st century to more than $120 billion nine years later. Latin American exports to China reached $41.3 billion, almost 7 percent of the region's total exports. China’s share of the region’s trade was less than 10 percent in 2000; by 2009, the number had jumped to 12 percent.¶

The Latin American energy sector is viewed as a hotspot for China. Economic engagement is ensuing. Xiaoxia 2013 (Wang Xiaoxia. “IN AMERICA'S BACKYARD: CHINA'S RISING INFLUENCE IN LATIN AMERICA” Economic Observer. May 6, 2013. Accessed July 6, 2013. http://www.worldcrunch.com/china-2.0/in-america-039-s-backyard-china-039-s-rising-influence- in-latin-america/foreign-policy-trade-economy-investments-energy/c9s11647/) Initially, China’s activities in Latin America were limited to the diplomatic level. By providing funds and assisting in infrastructure constructions, China managed to interrupt diplomatic ties between poor Latin countries and Taiwan. Since then, with China's economic boom, the supply of energy and resources has gradually become a problem that plagues China -- and its exchanges with Latin America thus are endowed with real substantive purpose.¶ Among the numerous needs of China, the demand for oil has always been the most powerful driving force. In the past 30 years, China has consumed one- third of the world's new oil production and become the world's second- largest oil importer. More than half of China's oil demand depends on imports, which increases the instability of its energy security. Diversification is inevitable. In this context, Latin America and its huge reserves and production capacity naturally became a destination for China.¶ China must better protect its energy supply, and can't just play the simple role of consumer. It must also help solidify the important links of the petroleum industry supply chain. Indeed, the China National Petroleum Corporation frequently appears in Latin American countries, and China’s investment and trade in the Latin American countries are also focused on its energy sector. MEXICO China’s economic relationship with Mexico is growing – trade and energy are of China’s biggest interests. AP 6/2 (Associated Press, “China's president visits Latin America, eyes Mexico's plans to open energy sector” Fox News. June 2, 2013. Accessed July 6, 2013. http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/06/02/china-president-visits-latin-america-eyes-mexico- plans-to-open-energy-sector/) China has invested heavily in resource-rich Latin America in recent years, striking major trade deals with governments from Venezuela to Argentina. Now its president is reaching out to one of the few countries in the region where ties have been slow to develop: Mexico.¶ President Xi Jinping's three-day visit starting Tuesday comes as Mexico debates opening its highly regulated energy sector to more foreign investment.¶ China's president has said he plans to address Mexico's large trade deficit with the Asian power and discuss ways to increase Mexican exports. Analysts say that could mean oil, which Mexico has and China needs to fuel its expanding economy and the cars of its growing middle class.¶ "Access to strategic raw materials is key to understanding the dynamic of relations with China," said Hugo Beteta, director for Mexico and Central America of the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. "Clearly there is an interest by China in Mexican oil."¶ The trip is part of a four-country regional tour that ends in the United States. Xi started in Trinidad and Tobago, where he also met with leaders of other Caribbean countries, and he arrives Sunday night in Costa Rica.¶ China and Trinidad have had diplomatic ties for almost 40 years, and Trinidad is a major trading partner in the Caribbean for China. Costa Rica is the only country in Central America to have diplomatic relations with China.¶ U.S. trade still dwarfs China's for the three countries Xi is visiting. But China's trade with Costa Rica and with Mexico has tripled since 2006, according to the International Monetary Fund.¶ Relations with Mexico had been chilly in the past, especially when former President Felipe Calderon hosted the Dalai Lama in 2011, something China's Foreign Ministry said "hurt the feelings of the Chinese people and harmed Chinese-Mexican relations."¶ President Enrique Pena Nieto, who took office in December, has been aggressive so far about changing that, and the two new presidents reportedly hit if off on a personal level when Pena Nieto visited China and met with Xi in April. That resulted in an unusually quick diplomatic follow-up, just two months into Xi's presidency.¶ During the April talks, Xi said "he is committed to working with Mexican authorities to help Mexico export more," Mexico's vice minister of foreign relations, Carlos de Icaza, told The Associated Press.¶ That's key for Mexico, because its trade deficit with China is exploding, far surpassing that of any other Latin American nation. VENEZUELA Chinese economic relations with Venezuela are becoming promising. Arsenault 2013 (Chris Arsenault, Prior to joining Al Jazeera, Chris Arsenault was a reporter with Inter Press Service news agency. He has also reported for CBC radio, the Halifax Chronicle Herald and dozens of magazines. His work focuses on North and South America, geopolitics, energy markets and social movements. “Venezuela looks to China for economic boost.” Aljazeera March 12, 2013. 9:31AM. Accessed July 6, 2013. http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2013/03/201331271053389351.html) As relations between Venezuela and the US soured in recent years, Venezuela looked away from its traditional trading partner towards the east. China could soon surpass the US as Venezuela’s largest trading partner.¶ Venezuela's interim President Nicolas Maduro, who took the job following the death of President Hugo Chavez on March 5, held talks with Chinese officials over the weekend.¶ "The best tribute that we could give to our comandante Chavez is to deepen our strategic relationship with our beloved China," said Maduro, who once served as Venezuela’s foreign minister.¶ In a televised meeting with Maduro, Zhang Ping, chairman of China’s National Development and Reform Commission, said “deepening relations between China and Venezuela” are “the only way to comfort the soul of President Hugo Chavez”.¶ If elected president on April 14, Maduro has said his first trip abroad will be to China.¶ Henrique Capriles, leader of Venezuela’s opposition, criticises most government policies but generally supports expanding trade with China. ¶ The countries have launched two satellites together in recent years, and China is negotiating a free trade deal with Mercosur, a South American trading zone.¶ Debt trap?¶ While China’s business deals with South America are welcomed by many, including politicians and young businessmen like Sanchez, some experts worry the manufacturing powerhouse is repeating old problems faced by Latin America, allowing countries to boost their economies purely through primary commodity exports.¶ Loans to Venezuela backed by the Chinese state and its development banks are being repaid in oil, directly from the spigot, rather than cash or government bonds.¶ Current oil deals are creating a “fundamentally unsustainable cycle of indebtedness and dependency”, according to the University of Miami study.¶ Since 2008, state-backed China Development Bank has agreed to lend Venezuela $46.5bn, according to a report from Tufts University. More than 90 percent of this debt is backed by sales contracts for crude. And the government is running up debt despite high oil prices.¶ With international lenders demanding high interest rates on Venezuelan government debt, and the Chavez government criticising the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank for their demands of privitisation and austerity, turning to China makes sense, according to some observers.¶ “Venezuela has a policy goal of trying to limit its exposure to the international debt market,” Mark Jones, Latin America expert at the Baker Institute for Public Policy, a think- tank specialising in the energy industry, told Al Jazeera. “For China, ideology has very little to do with it; they are investing for strategic reasons - to acquire natural resources.” Ideology, for Venezuela, is crucial.¶ Carlos Andres Perez, a former Venezuelan president, once slammed the IMF for “practicing economic totalitarianism which kills not with bullets but with famines”. But it’s unclear whether deals from totalitarian China, especially if they are backed with black gold, will be any better for Venezuela’s long-term prospects.¶ “My children and grandchildren will have to pay that debt,” Sanchez said, wondering if the billions in loans-for-oil deals could be “a double-edged sword”. CUBA China’s economic relations with Cuba are showing positive growth – recent exchanges prove. Cadenagramonte 6/3 (“China Makes Donations to Cuba and Signs Cooperation Agreements”. Cadenagramonte. June 3, 2013. Accessed July 6, 2013. http://www.cadenagramonte.cu/english/index.php/show/articles/14551:china-makes-donations- to-cuba-and-signs-cooperation-agreements) Guo Jinlong, member of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC), attended in this city a ceremony of donation and signing of documents as part of his official visit to Cuba.¶ Jinlong, accompanied by José Ramón Balaguer, member of the Secretariat of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Cuba, witnessed the donation of two modern ambulances, by the municipality of Beijing, to a representative of the Cuban Ministry of Public Health. At EXPOCUBA Fairgrounds, Jinlong also presided over the signing of an agreement for the grant of a photovoltaic power park, which at full capacity will generate one MW (megawatt). The also Secretary of the Municipal Committee of the CPC in Beijing was given, by experts of the Electrical Union Company, details from the location , which can serve as a model to the Cuban sources of renewable energy national program. At the head of his delegation, Jinlong also attended the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on economic cooperation between Cuban and Chinese entities; a protocol in order to bring to Cuban market new technologies for automotive transportation and two letters of intent. One of the latter is related to the possibility and economic viability of mutual business on the production of glass containers and the other one with the creation of joint units to the construction, operation and marketing of golf facilities. It was also signed an agreement for the joint development of a monoclonal antibody for the treatment of patients with breast and stomach cancer. In addition, the Chinese leader and his companions opened in EXPOCUBA the ¨ Beijing Spectacular¨ photo exhibition ¨ We believe that the signature of these documents will help to play a very active role in the promotion and economic and commercial development and bilateral cooperation,¨ Guo Jinlong said.(ACN) LINK GENERIC China solves better than the US in Latin America… Erikson and Chen 2007 (Daniel P. [Senior Associate for US policy @ Inter-American Dialogue] and Janice [joint-degree candidate at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy and Georgetown University Law Center]; China, Taiwan, and the Battle for Latin America; 31 Fletcher F. World Aff. 69; kdf) Meanwhile, China's galloping entrance into the Latin American market for energy resources and other commodities has been accompanied by an accelerating pace of high-level visits by Chinese officials to the region over the past few years. Though China's foreign policy strategy toward the developing world prioritizes South Asia and Africa over Latin America, this last relationship has experienced explosive growth. In 2001, Chinese President Jiang Zemin's landmark visit to the region sparked a wave of visits by senior officials and business leaders to discuss political, economic, and military concerns. Since then, the volume of trade between China and the region has skyrocketed. President Hu Jintao traveled to Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Cuba in 2004 and visited Mexico in 2005. The presidents of all those and other countries have paid reciprocal visits to China.¶ China's economic engagement with Latin America responds to the requirements of a booming Chinese economy that has been growing at nearly 10 percent per year for the past quarter century. The economic figures are impressive: in the past six years, Chinese imports from Latin America have grown more than six-fold, at a pace of some 60 percent a year, to an estimated $ 60 billion in 2006. China has become a major consumer of food, mineral, and other primary products from Latin America, benefiting principally the commodity-producing countries of South America--particularly Argentina, Brazil, Peru, and Chile. Chinese investment in Latin America remains relatively small at some $ 6.5 billion through 2004, but that amount represents half of China's foreign investment overseas. n9 China's Xinhua News agency reported that Chinese trade with the Caribbean exceeded $ 2 billion in 2004, a 40 percent increase from the previous year. n10 China has promised to increase its investments in Latin America to $ 100 billion by 2014, although government officials have since backed away from that pledge and several proposed investments are already showing signs of falling short in Brazil, Argentina, and elsewhere. FIGURE 2. CHINA V. TAIWAN: TRADING WITH LATIN AMERICA n11¶ [*75] For their part, Latin Americans are intrigued by the idea of China as a potential partner for trade and investment. As a rising superpower without a colonial or "imperialist" history in the Western Hemisphere, China is in many ways more politically attractive than either the United States or the European Union, especially for politicians confronted with constituencies that are increasingly anti-American and skeptical of Western intentions. n12 Nevertheless, most analysts recognize that Latin America's embrace of China--to the extent that this has actually occurred--is intimately linked to its perception of neglect and disinterest from the United States. Nervousness about China's rise runs deeper among the smaller economies such as those of Central America, which do not enjoy Brazil's or Argentina's abundance in export commodities and are inclined to view the competition posed by the endless supply of cheap Chinese labor as a menace to their nascent manufacturing sectors.¶ But even as China seeks to reassure the United States that its interests in South America are purely economic, Beijing has begun enlisting regional powers like Mexico to aid its effort to woo Central American diplomats. Pressure is also being placed on Paraguay by Argentina, Brazil, and Chile, its partners in the South American Common Market (Mercosur), which places certain constraints on member states' bilateral foreign policy prerogatives. Despite its avowals to Washington, China appears to be using [*76] its economic might as a means to achieve the patently political objective of stripping Taiwan of its democratic allies in the Western Hemisphere.

Chinese engagement is contingent on the U.S. staying out of the way. Cypher and Wilson 2011 (J.M. Cypher and Tamar Diana Wilson. “China’s South- South Relationships with Latin America in the Current Era”. Latin American Perspectives. Copyright 2011. Accessed July 6, 2013. http://latinamericanperspectives.com/prospectus-china- latin-america/) Extraordinarily high demands for minerals and fuels have created a mining and resource boom. Chinese Direct Foreign Investment has flowed into Latin America restructuring channels of foreign influence and control. U.S. dominance in the region may be retracting. The boom in Chinese investment potentially allows agile nations to enhancing their bargaining with foreign entities as the Chinese compete with major resource investors such as the US, Canada, Australia and others. This boom has created vast economic rents that are largely appropriated by foreign-owned corporations who repatriate then to “center” nations. Royalties and taxes from these investments have been modest or minimal, while States have done little to channel such windfalls into the expansion of the productive base of their nation.

Economic Politics are zero sum Kreps 13, Sarah E. "No Strings Attached? Evaluating China's Trade Relations Abroad." The Diplomat. N.p., 17 May 2013. Web. 06 July 2013. . Whether by design or not, the convergence with China’s foreign policy goals is important on at least two levels. First, developing countries in Africa and Latin America may be lulled by the prospect of partnering with a country such as China that does not have an explicit political agenda, as did the United States and Soviet Union during the Cold War, but this appears to be an illusion. Whether this reaches the level of “new colonialism” as former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton referred to it remains to be seen, but the economic asymmetries that undergird the relationship make that prospect more likely. A second set of implications deals with the United States. During the same period in which China’s trade with Africa and Latin America and foreign policy convergence have increased, the United States and China have actually diverged in their overall UNGA voting behavior. This suggests something of a zero sum dynamic in which China’s growing trade relations make it easier to attract allies in international forums while US influence is diminishing. Taken together, these trends call for greater engagement on behalf of the United States in the developing world. Since the September 2001 attacks, Washington has dealt with Africa and Latin America through benign neglect and shifted its attention elsewhere. If foreign policy alignment does follow from tighter commercial relations, the US ought to reinvigorate its trade and diplomatic agenda as an important means of projecting influence abroad. MEXICO Any interruptions with developing ties between China and Mexico will destabilize the Chinese economy. Sarmiento – Saher 2013 (Sebastian Sarmiento-Saher. “Is Xi’s Chinese Dream Compatible with Latin America’s?” The Diplomat. June 7, 2013. Accessed July 6, 2013. http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search? q=cache:p8Y4O4XB8ewJ:thediplomat.com/china-power/is-xis-chinese-dream-compatible-with- latin-americas/ +mexican+oil+china+us+crowd+out+investment&cd=4&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=safari) Despite a chill in relations between China and Mexico in recent years, both countries have new leaders in Xi Jinping and Enrique Peña Nieto who have signaled their intention to reset relations. With Mr. Peña Nieto’s visit to China in April and Mr. Xi’s trip to Mexico about to end, both sides appear to be interested in finding areas where they can cooperate for both sides’ benefits and downplaying competition. For instance, if Mr. Peña Nieto is able to make needed reforms in Mexico’s oil industry, China could become a big investor and consumer in that field. Additionally, both leaders have signed agreements in mining and infrastructure, agreed to China purchasing US$1 billion worth of Mexican goods, and opened the Chinese market to Mexican pork and tequila.¶ Still, while Chinese investment in the infrastructure and industries that focus on the extraction of natural resources and pledges to import more from other countries are good, but they cannot completely paper over the difficulties Mexico has encountered in competing with Chinese manufacturing. For example, while it is true that Mexico has regained competitiveness and market share vis-à-vis China as a result of exogenous factors, this trend alone might not guarantee long-term survival. In 2003, both countries made two million cars per year – today, China produces 20 million while Mexico only makes 2.5 million. Additionally, Latin American countries’ hopes of moving into high- end manufacturing could be dashed by China’s desire to do the same. MEXICAN OIL China is dependent on Mexico for its supply of oil. Other counties’ investments will destabilize China’s economy. Sarmiento – Saher 2013 (Sebastian Sarmiento-Saher. “Is Xi’s Chinese Dream Compatible with Latin America’s?” The Diplomat. June 7, 2013. Accessed July 6, 2013. http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search? q=cache:p8Y4O4XB8ewJ:thediplomat.com/china-power/is-xis-chinese-dream-compatible-with- latin-americas/ +mexican+oil+china+us+crowd+out+investment&cd=4&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=safari) As Chinese President Xi Jinping concludes his trip to Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), including Mexico, it is worth probing the trip for what it can reveal about Beijing’s future in the region and beyond.¶ Mr. Xi visited Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica, and Mexico – countries that are important in their own way. Trinidad and Tobago is a pearl in the Caribbean for its steady economic development and oil and gas reserves, which have made the country a regional petroleum hub. Costa Rica is one of the world’s oldest democracies, a key player in renewable energy, and is considered a success story in a troubled neighborhood. Mexico has the second largest economy in Latin America with an attractive oil industry that could be improved and opened through reforms. Taken together, these countries offer what China is looking for: a stable and reliable source of energy to fuel its own economy.¶ Beyond securing resources, Mr. Xi may also be using this trip as a PR opportunity to improve China’s image in the developing world. While Beijing emphasizes its “peaceful rise” in geopolitics, it is also trying to fight the perception that China’s size and stature in the world economy are crowding out other emerging countries, and dominating its smaller partners. With this Latin American tour, Mr. Xi was hoping to demonstrate that states of any size or condition can have a harmonious relationship with China. ¶ Despite these good intentions, China’s economic ties with Latin America are complicated by the fact that their economies are not entirely complementary. While Chinese trade and investment with Latin American countries have grown rapidly over the past several years, the rise in Sino-LAC business has also been accompanied by significant competition between both sides. China’s demand for commodities has benefitted Latin American countries and firms that export resources ranging from soybeans to oil. On the other hand, the sheer scale and competitiveness of Chinese industry has put pressure on manufacturers across Latin America. **Russia DA 1NC Cuban sugar embargo strengthens Cuban-Russian relations Council On Hemisphere Affairs Research Associate Evgenij Haperskij, February 24, 2010. Cuba – Russia Now and Then, http://www.caribbeananalysis.com/cuba-%E2%80%93-russia-now-and-then/

Before the Cuban Revolution in 1959, the United States had investments in Cuba totaling about one billion in U.S.- dollars, representing nearly twelve percent of all US-investments in Latin America. The Cuban economy at the time was completely dominated by its powerful neighbor, but everything changed after Fidel Castro came to power. He launched a land reform program and seized American assets, putting them under government control. In attempting to topple the Castro-Regime, the United States slashed its sugar quota for Cuba which heavily affected the Cuban economy. This measure did not result in a desired change in Cuban leadership, but effectively moved the island much closer politically to Moscow.¶ Castro Becomes a Communist When Castro came to power in 1959, his revolutionary movement did not profess communistic ideology, but only two years later, he announced that he was a Marxist Leninist and would remain so until his death. He also declared that the Integrated Revolutionary Organizations (IRO), the precursor of the Communist Party of Cuba, was formed by the merger of Fidel Castro’s 26th of July Revolutionary Movement and the People’s Socialist Party. Castro’s political shift could be seen as one of economic necessity. After the revolution, the Cuban middle class, dissatisfied with the new leadership’s political course, fled Cuba. This huge economic brain drain, coupled with the closure of the U.S. market to Cuban sugar, led to a precarious fiscal situation on the island.¶ The Soviet Union took advantage of the favorable situation for it to meddle and decided to come to Cuba’s assistance on February 13, 1960. It did this in order to gain influence in the Western Hemisphere, marking the inauguration of the modern Cuban- Soviet relationship. Representatives from both leftist governments signed a trade agreement which became the basis for further economic cooperation. In this agreement, the Soviet Union committed to purchase 425,000 tons of sugar in 1960, and from 1961 to 1964 one million tons sugar annually. Furthermore, Nikita Khrushchev granted Havana a 100 million U.S.-dollar credit at a very low interest (2.5 %) and promised to sell oil to Cuba below world market prices. This enabled Cuba to once again rely on its sugar industry to buoy the Cuban economy because of Russia’s guarantee of a stable market and further economic aid. As a result, Cuba became nearly totally dependent on the Soviet Union. In order for Cuba to receive financial subventions from Moscow, the Soviet Union demanded that Cuba make certain economic reforms. Just as Cuba reformed its economy to follow the Soviet Union’s specifications, Cuba’s political order was reformed as well. On the surface, Castro’s regime became Marxist Leninist; in fact, he and his speeches framed the ideological guideline and not the working class or the party. However, through his formal commitment to communism, Castro won the abiding support and affection of the Soviet Union, even though its leaders barely comprehended him, thereby ensuring financial security for his island. Furthermore, the Soviet Union gained an ally in its Cold War against the United States located close to its borders. This alliance led to the most serious confrontation during the Cold War when Soviet and Cuban governments placed nuclear missiles on Cuban soil in 1962.

Lifting the embargo would push Russia’s influence out of Latin America SIMON ROMERO, MICHAEL SCHWIRTZ and ALEXEI BARRIONUEVO, The New York Times, November 22, 2008. Allies and Prospects in Latin America Frustrate Russia's Efforts to Build Ties. Lexis-Nexis

When President Dmitri A. Medvedev of Russia planned his coming trip through Latin America, his country seemed poised to present one of the most visible challenges in years to American influence in the region. With oil prices high, Russia was flush with cash and planning a variety of measures, including helping Venezuela build a nuclear reactor and strengthening military ties with Cuba, a former cold war ally of the Soviets. But when Mr. Medvedev reaches the region next week, he will find it in flux in reaction to recent events -- and in some cases less receptive to his overtures. Plunging oil prices and the global financial crisis, which have hammered Russia particularly hard, have raised questions about Russia's reliability as an economic partner, while Barack Obama's victory in the presidential race has raised hopes throughout Latin America of a new era of improved relations with the United States.¶ In this rapidly changing landscape, most Latin American countries are recalibrating their political interests, frustrating Russia's efforts to deepen regional ties, like the ones China established in the past decade.¶ ''Russia's elites, including President Medvedev, look on China's rising diplomatic and economic successes in Latin America and in Africa with envy,'' said Stephen Kotkin, the director of Russia studies at Princeton University. ''They also perceive an opportunity, much exaggerated, to send the U.S. a message in its supposed backyard.''¶ But Mr. Medvedev faces a hard sell in the region. In Cuba there are lingering suspicions over Russian intentions, as the Cuban economy collapsed when the Soviets withdrew in the 1990s, as well as a reluctance to alienate an incoming Obama administration that might push to end the trade embargo. Disrupting Russian influence in the regional threatens global power struggle Global Times, June 03, 2013 20:13. Latin America arena for global powers, http://www.globaltimes.cn/DesktopModules/DnnForge%20- %20NewsArticles/Print.aspx? tabid=99&tabmoduleid=94&articleId=786399&moduleId=405&PortalID=0

More importantly, Latin America is no longer constrained to a US- dominated Western hemisphere, but is developing relationships with emerging economies from the rest of the world. However, challenges still remain in those countries' China policies in terms of policy coordination and implementation. It requires both China and Latin America to make efforts to guide and design the direction of the bilateral relationship. It is also unavoidable that Latin America has become an arena for another round of power struggles. The US is trying to regain its influence in Latin America, while Russia, India and Japan, no matter whether out of consideration of Latin America's resources and market or the need to readjust their foreign policy, are also looking to take a share. Both traditional powers and emerging economies are looking for leverage in the region. Every major power is speculating on the changes inside Latin America. The dominant US position in this region has started to decline. Brazil is a rising power, but it is uncertain whether it can establish leadership in this region. Meanwhile, left-wing governments in Latin America are being challenged over the sustainability of their policies. And most Latin American countries are readjusting their foreign policies for a diverse system of foreign relations. Major powers are reevaluating their interests and readjusting their policies in this region to compete for influence. But whether they can live up to their own expectations depends on their national strength and future growth, and more importantly, whether they can balance their interests with Latin America's. Both China and the US have denied any intention of rivalry in Latin America, but the thriving relationship between China and Latin America has already impacted the traditional US influence over this region. UQ Cuba imports fuel from Russia David Esler, Business & Commercial Aviation, October 1, 2011. Operating in Cuba, Lexis-Nexis

According to Craig Mariacci, vice president, sales, for Calgary-based flight planning and handling firm Skyplan Services Ltd., Jose Marti is «very well run» with a general aviation ramp where Cuban Customs meets visiting business jets. «They tend to treat you very well. Fuel is sold by Cubana Airlines. We use a Mexican agent to arrange that. Pricing is good — better than in the U.S. — and taxes are very low. They import their fuel from Venezuela and Russia.» There is «a slight military presence» on the field, Mariacci said, but it's not oppressive. «You can hire security [to guard the airplane], but you probably won't need it, as the airport is fairly secure. Our customers have always been treated very well there.» Russia has strong economic ties with Cuba

Marvin L. Astrada, PhD in International Relations from Florida International University, USA, Félix E. Martín, is Associate Professor of Politics and International Relations at Florida International University in Miami, 2013. Russia and Latin America. Pg 31. Google Books.

Massive aid, historically and in the present, is not the same as full-fledged financing of a country’s economy. Soviet investment-as is the case with the contemporary Russian State-was deemed rational, strategic, and designed to procure apperceived benefits via- a-via Soviet interests. Investment, however, was premised on ideology-a most irrational basis upon which to premise policy and strategic interest. Nevertheless, investment, past and present, has been premised on utilizing hard- and soft-power resources for empowering the state. The effects of former Soviet, and, now, Russian investment and engagement has produced miscellaneous results in the region, from entrenchment of virulently anti-American regimes (e.g., Casto’s Cuba) to the support of revolutionary movement (Sandinista Nicaragua), to fostering a variety of CCNs premised on mutual material and security gains via cooperative and sophisticated engagement.

Russia’s economic ties with cuba are strong Ariel Cohen, Ph.D, Senior Research Fellow for Russian and Eurasian Studies and International Energy Policy, The Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, June 14, 2013. Russia’s Eurasian Union Could Endanger the Neighborhood and U.S. Interests Moscow is already demanding an end to the U.S. presence in Central Asia. It wants American forces out of the Manas Transit Center in Kyrgyzstan. Russia is also pressuring Ukraine to join the Customs Union and the Eurasian Union, which would effectively foreclose Ukraine’s European integration and future NATO membership. The geopolitical level playing field is a sine qua non of American political engagement, just as Washington does not seriously oppose Moscow’s current deep economic involvement in Cuba and Venezuela. The embargo and lack of focus have entrenched Russia’s influence in Latin America Shlomo Ben-Ami, Times of Oman, June 18, 2013. Is US losing Latin America?, http://www.timesofoman.com/Columns/Article-1173.aspx

It is a mantra increasingly heard around the world: US power is in decline. And nowhere does this seem truer than in Latin America. No longer is the region regarded as America's "backyard"; on the contrary, the continent has arguably never been so united and independent. But this view fails to capture the true nature of US influence in Latin America – and elsewhere as well. It is true that US attention to Latin America has waned in recent years. President George W. Bush was more focused on his "global war on terror." His successor, Barack Obama, seemed to give the region little thought as well, at least in his first term. Indeed, at the Summit of the Americas in Cartagena in April 2012, Latin American leaders felt sufficiently confident and united to challenge US priorities in the region. They urged the US to lift its embargo on Cuba, claiming that it had damaged relations with the rest of the continent, and to do more to combat drug use on its own turf, through education and social work, rather than supplying arms to fight the drug lords in Latin America – a battle that all acknowledged has been an utter failure. It is also true that Latin American countries have pursued a massive expansion of economic ties beyond America's sway. China is now Latin America's second-largest trading partner and rapidly closing the gap with the US. India is showing keen interest in the region's energy industry, and has signed export agreements in the defence sector. Iran has strengthened its economic and military ties, especially in Venezuela. Similarly, in 2008, Russia's then-President Dmitri Medvedev identified the US war on terror as an opportunity to create strategic partnerships with rising powers such as Brazil, and with the Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas (ALBA), a Venezuelan-inspired bloc opposed to US designs in the region. The energy giant Gazprom and the country's military industries have spearheaded the Kremlin's effort to demonstrate Russia's ability to influence America's neighbourhood – a direct response to perceived American meddling in Russia's own "near abroad," particularly Georgia and Ukraine. IMPACTS Lifting the embargo would anger Venezuela – Cuban engagement of Russia is safer Brookings Institute, March 4, 2008. Understanding Cuba's Leadership, http://www.brookings.edu/events/2008/03/04-cuba

Raul Castro’s close advisers felt confident that Cuba generally enjoys a favorable international position thanks to generous oil subsidies from Venezuela, high commodity prices in recent years [although nickel prices have significantly declined from a year ago], and the prospect of developing its own oil resources. Participants thus advised Raul Castro to proceed cautiously in improving Cuba’s relationship with the United States. Despite the prospect of gaining access to the U.S. market, the potential costs of such a monumental diplomatic shift – open flows of communication and people – could weaken the regime’s control.¶ A critical calculation in Cuba’s foreign (and domestic) policy choices will be the status of the island’s energy resources. If Cuba’s own oil reserves and sugar cane ethanol capacity are developed in the next five years, both industries could contribute on the order of $3-5 billion annually in commercial revenues. Such flows would clearly give Cuba new foreign policy choices, namely the prospect of eliminating the island’s dependence on Venezuela. Although advisers agreed that this is an important goal (especially in light of Venezuela’s own economic uncertainties), they also urged Cuba to proceed cautiously. As long as Cuba maintains only a seventeen day supply of crude oil in reserve, Cuba must do nothing to jeopardize its ties to Venezuela.¶ Advisers positively noted the considerable sympathy of many international partners towards Raul Castro’s reform efforts. Advisers expressed support for Cuba’s expanding ties with Russia, Mexico, and Brazil while also praising Spain’s efforts to convince the European Union to restore normal relations.

Plan damages Russia-Cuba economic ties Alan Gomez, journalist for USA Today, December 8, 2008 Monday. Obama could change relations with Cuba; Some see chance to ease sanctions on travel and trade, Lexis-Nexis

Supporters of the embargo counter that there's no reason to think the Castros would suddenly reverse course.¶ Talks of ending the embargo are dangerous at a time when Cuba is realigning itself with Russia and further strengthening its ties with China and Venezuela, says Frank Calzon, director of Center for a Free Cuba, based in Arlington, Va.¶ "You'd like to see some sort of signals coming out of Havana that we welcome change and we're prepared to talk about this or this," says Ray Walser, a former 27-year State Department employee and a Latin America analyst at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank. "You don't see any of that."

Challenging Russia encourages threatens global stability Risk Watchdog, Business Monitor International, Jun 25, 2013. Edward Snowden, Russia, And China: Implications, http://www.riskwatchdog.com/2013/06/25/edward-snowden-russia-and-china- implications/

The US and Russia remain completely at loggerheads over Syria, which has become subsumed into a wider power struggle between the ‘Great Powers’ in the Middle East. Superficially, Syria’s war is between President Bashar al-Assad’s regime and rebel forces, but behind these actors lie the Shi’a powers Iran and Hizbullah, and Sunni nations Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. And behind both camps lie Russia and the US, respectively.¶ In Asia, China fears being encircled by a loose US-led network of nations including Japan, the Philippines, Australia, and most recently, Myanmar.¶ This isn’t exactly a Cold War. During the Cold War, there was a genuine ideological division worldwide between the US-led capitalist world, and the USSR-led communist world. Nowadays, there are still ideological divisions between the US, and Russia and China. The US is democratic and favours the spread of neoliberal economic policies worldwide. By contrast, Russia is a heavily managed democracy with a strong state, while China is an authoritarian state with capitalistic characteristics and a generally pragmatic streak. These differences pale in comparison to the ideological dogmatism of the Cold War.¶ Instead, disagreements between the US, Russia, and China reflect something far more basic: power. This is not new. Ever since the US emerged as the world’s sole superpower in the 1990s, Russia and China have been struggling to counterbalance the US, either individually or by cooperating loosely. In the 1990s, both were too weak to challenge America. Russia was mired in a post-Soviet depression, and China was keeping its head low while it concentrated on economic development. In 1999, the US ignored Russian and Chinese objections to NATO intervention in Serbia’s breakaway province of Kosovo, and in 2003, Washington ignored Moscow’s and Beijing’s objections to its invasion of Iraq.¶ Now, however, Russia and China feel strong enough to stand up to the US. Both are still rather weak, geopolitically speaking. For example, Russia and China have very few genuine allies, and those that are their allies are economically peripheral countries, e.g. Belarus, Armenia, and Tajikistan for Russia, and North Korea and Myanmar for China. Nonetheless, Moscow and Beijing still have the means to push back against the US. On yesterday evening’s news channels, there was considerable speculation that the US could force the flight carrying Snowden to Cuba (a stopover point en route to Ecuador, his presumed ultimate destination) to land in the US, if it passed through US airspace. But would the US really intercept a Russian civilian airliner? In any case, Snowden was not on board.¶ Meanwhile, the Snowden affair is bringing Ecuador firmly under the international spotlight again. President Rafael Correa seems to be positioning himself as the de facto successor to the late Venezuelan president, Hugo Chavez, as the champion of anti- Americanism in Latin America. (Wikileaks founder Julian Assange remains in limbo in the Ecuadorean embassy in London.) ¶ Overall, neither Russia nor China wants to strain relations with the US to breaking point. However, it is clear that both are prepared to be much more assertive towards Washington than was the case a decade ago. This is probably the new norm. AFF A2: RUSSIA DA No link to Venezuela disad – Cuba is diversifying its markets now Chloe Hayward, Euromoney, November 2008, Cuba's capitalist evolution: Injecting capitalism into a communist economy, Lexis-Nexis

But some think Cuba has learnt its lesson. "I think the government has realized that putting all its eggs in one basket is not a good plan," says Emily Morris, senior research fellow at the International Institute for the Study of Cuba in London. "Although Venezuela is clearly very important to Cuba today, they have taken measures to forge new partnerships with other countries and the goods they are exporting are transferable to other markets - if not Venezuela then they would only need to capture a minuscule amount of the Chinese market to keep their exports up." **OIL DA 1NC Lifting the embargo on Cuba leads to an additional 2 billion gallons of ethanol on the market per year Specht, 13 Jonathan. "Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States." Ucdavis.edu. UCdavis, 24 Apr. 2013. Web. 6 July 2013. Legal Advisor, Pearlmaker Holsteins, Inc. B.A., Louisiana State University, 2009; J.D., Washington University in St. Louis 2012. I would like to thank Professor Frances H. Foster of Washington University in St. Louis School of Law for her invaluable suggestions in revising this Article. To speak of a Cuban sugarcane-based ethanol industry is, at this point, largely a matter of speculation.46 Because of the anti-ethanol views of Fidel Castro (who has said that ethanol should be discouraged because it diverts crops from food to fuel),47 Cuba currently has almost no ethanol industry. In the words of Ronald Soligo and Amy Myers Jaffe of the Brookings Institution, “Despite the fact that Cuba is dependent on oil imports and is aware of the demonstrated success of Brazil in using ethanol to achieve energy self-sufficiency, it has not embarked on a policy to develop a larger ethanol industry from sugarcane.”48 There is, however, no reason why such an industry cannot be developed. As Soligo and Jaffe wrote, “In addition, Cuba has large land areas that once produced sugar but now lie idle. These could be revived to provide a basis for a world-class ethanol industry. We estimate that if Cuba achieves the yield levels attained in Nicaragua and Brazil and the area planted with sugarcane approaches levels seen in the 1970s and 1980s, Cuba could produce up to 2 billion gallons of sugar-based ethanol per year.”49 The ideal domestic policy scenario for the creation of a robust Cuban sugarcane ethanol industry would be a situation in which: the U.S. trade embargo on Cuba is ended; U.S. tariff barriers are removed (in the case of sugar) or not revived (in the case of ethanol); and the RFS requiring that a certain percentage of U.S. fuel come from ethanol remain in place. Oil prices stabilizing at over $100 a barrel now. Russia is strong now but drop in prices below $100 would doom Russia. Adomanis, March 13 Mark. "Crude Oil Is Still Really Expensive, So Russia Will Probably Stay Stable."Forbes. Forbes Magazine, 14 Mar. 2013. Web. 05 June 2013. Is Russia’s over-reliance on oil a good thing, or is it somehow praiseworthy? No. If I were running the Kremlin I would be spooked by the increase in the non-oil and gas deficit and the ever rising price per barrel needed to balance the state budget. But the fact that a sustained and sharp decrease in the price of oil would be a disaster for the Kremlin does’t mean that such an decrease is any more likely. And if you look at the Energy Information Agency’s short-term price forecasts, the expectation in the short term is for an exceedingly gentle and gradual decline in oil prices to $108 a barrel in 2013 and $101 in 2014, while the long-term reference case is for a sustained and long-term rise in prices.Oil prices that are expected to average out at over $100 a barrel more than a year from now, and which will then begin a gradual rise, hardly seems like a harbinger of doom for the Kremlin. Perhaps I’m small- minded or unimaginative, but it’s very hard for me to conjur a scenario in which Putin’s political position is seriously threatened so long as oil is over $100 a barrel and in which the most likely scenario is for ever-rising price in the future. Could oil doom Putin? Yes. But it seems far more likely that, for better or worse, it’s going to continue to function as a crutch for Russia’s current regime Quick drop in US consumption of oil causes prices to bottom out Carey, 3 (John, 2/23, Senior Correspondent in BusinessWeek’s Washington bureau, Bloomberg Businessweek, “Taming the Oil Beast,” http://www.businessweek.com/stories/2003-02-23/taming-the-oil-beast, Accessed: 7/4/12, GJV) Yet reducing oil use has to be done judiciously. A drastic or abrupt drop in demand could even be counterproductive. Why? Because even a very small change in capacity or demand "can bring big swings in price," explains Rajeev Dhawan, director of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University's Robinson College of Business. For instance, the slowdown in Asia in the mid-1990s reduced demand only by about 1.5 million bbl. a day, but it caused oil prices to plunge to near $10 a barrel. So today, if the U.S. succeeded in abruptly curbing demand for oil, prices would plummet . Higher-cost producers such as Russia and the U.S. would either have to sell oil at a big loss or stand on the sidelines. The effect would be to concentrate power-- you guessed it--in the hands of Middle Eastern nations, the lowest-cost producers and holders of two-thirds of the known oil reserves. That's why flawed energy policies, such as trying to override market forces by rushing to expand supplies or mandating big fuel efficiency gains, could do harm.

Russian weakness causes nuclear war, prolif, terrorism, and US intervention Oliker et. al, 02 Olga, and Tanya Charlick-Paley. Assessing Russia's Decline: Trends and Implications for the United States and the U.S. Air Force. Santa Monica, CA: Rand, 2002. Print. The preceding chapters have illustrated the ways in which Russia’s decline affects that country and may evolve into challenges and dangers that extend well beyond its borders. The political factors of decline may make Russia a less stable international actor and other factors may increase the risk of internal unrest. Together and separately, they increase the risk of conflict and the potential scope of other imaginable disasters. The trends of regionalization, particularly the disparate rates of economic growth among regions, combined with the politicization of regional economic and military interests, will be important to watch. The potential for locale, or possibly ethnicity, to serve as a rallying point for internal conflict is low at present, but these factors have the potential to feed into precisely the cycle of instability that political scientists have identified as making states in transition to democracy more likely to become involved in war. These factors also increase the potential for domestic turmoil, which further increases the risk of international conflict, for instance if Moscow seeks to united a divided nation and/or demonstrate globally that its waning power remains something to be reckoned with. Given Russia’s conventional weakness, an increased risk of conflict carries with it an increased risk of nuclear weapons use, and Russia’s demographic situation increases the potential for a major epidemic with possible implications for Europe and perhaps beyond. The dangers posed by Russia’s civilian and military nuclear weapons complex, aside from the threat of nuclear weapons use, create a real risk of proliferation of weapons or weapons materials to terrorist groups, as well as perpetuating an increasing risk of accident at one of Russia’s nuclear power plants or other facilities. These elements touch upon key security interests, thus raising serious concerns for the United States. A declining Russia increases the likelihood of conflict—internal or otherwise—and the general deterioration that Russia has in common with “failing” states raises serious questions about its capacity to respond to an emerging crisis. A crisis in large, populous, and nuclear-armed Russia can easily affect the interests of the United States and its allies. In response to such a scenario, the United States, whether alone or as part of a larger coalition, could be asked to send military forces to the area in and around Russia. This chapter will explore a handful of scenarios that could call for U.S. involvement. A wide range of crisis scenarios can be reasonably extrapolated from the trends implicit in Russia’s decline. A notional list includes: Authorized or unauthorized belligerent actions by Russia troops in trouble-prone Russian regions or in neighboring states could lead to armed conflict. Border clashes with China in the Russian Far East or between Russia and Ukraine, the Baltic states, Kazakhstan, or another neighbor could escalate into interstate combat. Nuclear-armed terrorists based in Russia or using weapons or materials diverted from Russian facilities could threaten Russia, Europe, Asia, or the United States. Civil war in Russia could involve fighting near storage sties for nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons and agents, risking large-scale contamination and humanitarian disaster. A nuclear accident at a power plant or facility could endanger life and health in Russia and neighboring states. A chemical accident at a plant or nuclear or nuclear-related facility could endanger life and health in Rusisa and neighboring states. Ethnic pogrom in south Russia could force refugees into Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and/or Ukraine. Economic and ethnic conflicts in Caucasus could erupt into armed clashes, which would endanger oil and gas pipelines in the region. A massive ecological disaster such as an earthquake, famine, or epidemic could spawn refugees and spread illness and death across borders. An increasingly criminalized Russian economy could create a safe haven for crime or even terrorist-linked groups. From this base, criminals, drug traders, and terrorists could threaten the people and economies of Europe, Asia, and the United States. Accelerated Russian weapons and technology sales or unauthorized diversion could foster the proliferation of weapons and weapon materials to rogue states and nonstate terrorist actors, increasing the risk of nuclear war.

Squo proves that Perceptions are the drivers of prices – plan instantly causes low oil prices Termeer, citing OPEC, 12 – independent analyst [Chris, 4/18/2012, “Market perception drives crude oil prices up,” http://christermeer.com/market- perception-drives-crude-oil-prices-up/] OPEC’s latest monthly report suggest that the supposed oil shortage is merely a market perception, and that actual oil supply is enough to sustain demand. According to OPEC, crude oil prices for March 2012 were about 4.7 percent above February 2012 prices. OPEC added that this “was supported by supply glitches in the North Sea and East Africa, improving economic data from the U.S. and China, and persistent geopolitical factors which were further amplified by speculative activities”. OPEC said that the current supply of crude oil is greater compared with last year’s supply. It also projected that oil demand within the oil cartel alone may reach an average of 30M BDP – exactly the same figure reported by OPEC in its latest report. Meanwhile, the oil cartel predicts that demand for crude oil will relax a bit, prompting them to adjust its forecast lower by 900,000 barrels a day. The foreseen slack in demand supports OPEC’s observation that the oil market supply is very stable. However, if low demand continues to prevail, oil firms may be forced to think twice before further investing in oil exploration and drilling ventures. Oil prices, on the other hand, had been far from stable with the mounting pressure on Iran; the country has had growing sanctions on its energy and financial sectors, and has reacted to these in a somewhat hostile manner. This in turn led the International Energy Agency to report a conceivable cut in Iranian oil supply by approximately 1 million barrels a day. OPEC further stressed that geopolitics is the main reason for the prevailing steep oil prices. What keeps it up really is the market’s notion of an oil shortage and not actual market forces. UQ Oil prices above $100 per barrel now; strong U.S. economy and Egyptian turmoil AP, July 6 "Oil Prices Rise Nearly $2 on Egypt Crisis, US Jobs." The Christian Science Monitor. The Christian Science Monitor, 06 July 2013. Web. 06 July 2013. Oil prices rose $1.98 Friday on a positive US jobs report and tumult unfolding in Egypt. It's the highest level for oil prices since May 2, 2012. The price of oil marched higher Friday with a positive report on U.S. hiring and ongoing concerns about the crisis in Egypt. U.S. benchmark crude for August delivery rose $1.98, or 2 percent, to finish at $103.22 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That's the highest closing price since May 2, 2012. Brent crude, a benchmark for many international oil varieties, rose $2.18, or 2.1 percent, to end at $107.72 per barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London. Following the ouster of Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi on Wednesday, his supporters began a series of protests and attacks Friday. The military opened fire as hundreds of protesters marched on a headquarters of the Republican Guard Egypt is not an oil producer, but its control of the Suez Canal, one of the world's busiest shipping lanes, gives it a crucial role in maintaining global energy supplies. For now supplies are moving freely through the canal. U.S. employers added a robust 195,000 jobs in June and many more in April and May than previously thought. The job growth suggests a stronger economy and makes it more likely the Federal Reserve will slow its bond purchases before year's end. Those bond purchases have supported the economy by helping keep long-term interest rates low. That in turn has given a boost to investments such as stocks and oil. LINKS Ethanol importation from Cuba trades off with oil consumption Specht, 13 Jonathan. "Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States." Ucdavis.edu. UCdavis, 24 Apr. 2013. Web. 6 July 2013. Legal Advisor, Pearlmaker Holsteins, Inc. B.A., Louisiana State University, 2009; J.D., Washington University in St. Louis 2012. I would like to thank Professor Frances H. Foster of Washington University in St. Louis School of Law for her invaluable suggestions in revising this Article. There are a number of ways the U.S. transportation sector could reduce the amount of oil it consumes: raising vehicle fuel efficiency standards further; increasing and improving light rail and other public transportation options; building more walkable communities so daily errands could be made without using an automobile; encouraging people to live closer to where they work; and increasing the availability of electric cars.5 Yet, even using all of these strategies comprehensively will not change a fundamental fact of our oil-based transportation system — in certain areas (like rural communities and outer suburbs) the automobile is essential for transportation, and liquid fuel is extremely convenient for automobiles. With a liquid fuel engine, a driver can “re- charge” his or her car in a few minutes with a substance that is widely available from Boston to Boise and everywhere in between. With the conveniences of oil, however, come costs. Oil is a finite resource, and its consumption pollutes the air and contributes to climate change. Furthermore, it is expensive6 and will only get more expensive in the future.7 However, any realistic plan for dealing with a future of reduced oil use must include liquid fuels that are similar in convenience and availability to gasoline, given the geography of the United States, the state of the current domestic transportation system,8 and the ease of using liquid fuel for the personal automobile. This does not mean, however, that corn-based ethanol, thus far the major liquid-fuel petroleum alternative pursued by the United States, is the best answer. While it has benefitted the Midwest economically, the domestic ethanol industry has also contributed to a number of negative environmental effects. There is, however, another liquid fuel option other than fossil-fuel based gasoline and corn-based ethanol. The Obama Administration’s energy plan includes a wide range of strategies to reduce U.S. fossil fuel consumption, yet one strategy is notably absent from the Blueprint: replacing a percentage of U.S. gasoline with ethanol imported from outside the United States.9 A number of influential commentators, such as Thomas Friedman10 and The Economist,11 have called for the United States to encourage the importation of sugarcanebased ethanol from countries like Brazil. But the possibility of importing ethanol from Cuba has been largely ignored by influential opinion-makers as well as the United States government.12 While by no means a silver bullet for solving the United States’ energy problems, importing ethanol made from sugarcane grown in Cuba would bring a number of environmental and economic benefits — partially offset by regionalized economic harms — to the United States. This possibility, at the very least, deserves much greater consideration and evaluation than it has thus far received. This Article attempts to close this gap in the debate. It explains which specific combination of federal law and policy in the fields of agriculture, energy, and trade would encourage the growth of a sugarcane-based ethanol industry in Cuba. It also examines some of the barriers that must be overcome before such an industry can grow. Finally, it evaluates the environmental and economic changes that would occur in the United States as a result of the growth of such an industry. The Article is divided into four parts. Part II presents an overview of the U.S. ethanol industry. It argues that, because of national politics, the United States has promoted the growth of the domestic corn-based ethanol industry at the expense of promoting imports of sugarcane-based ethanol. Part III shifts the focus to Cuba. It explores the prospects for Cuba to develop a sugarcane-based ethanol industry and corresponding challenges IMPACTS Warming Burning ethanol contributes to global warming Specht, 13 Jonathan. "Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States." Ucdavis.edu. UCdavis, 24 Apr. 2013. Web. 6 July 2013. Legal Advisor, Pearlmaker Holsteins, Inc. B.A., Louisiana State University, 2009; J.D., Washington University in St. Louis 2012. I would like to thank Professor Frances H. Foster of Washington University in St. Louis School of Law for her invaluable suggestions in revising this Article. Using any form of ethanol as a transportation fuel combats climate change because the carbon released when ethanol is burned was captured out of the atmosphere by the plants used to make the ethanol. Contrastingly, the carbon released when gasoline is burned had been stored in the earth for millennia in the form of crude oil.59 This simple fact is complicated by the reality that the entire process of getting ethanol into the fuel tanks of drivers — from growing crops, to creating a refined product, to delivering blended ethanol to gas stations — is reliant on fossil fuels. According to one report, “If corn growth required only photosynthesis, if ethanol were produced using solar power, if corn were instantly transported to ethanol plants, and if no land use changes were needed to grow the corn, then displacing a gallon of gasoline with ethanol would reduce greenhouse gas emissions by approximately [the equivalent of] 11.2 kilograms of [carbon dioxide]. However, fossil fuels are used to grow corn and produce ethanol.”60 The debit side of the domestic ethanol industry’s climate-change ledger begins to subtract from the credit side before the corn it uses is even planted. Russian Economic Decline Drop in oil prices triggers Russian economic decline and the collapse of Putin’s regime Schuman, 12 Michael. "Why Vladimir Putin Needs Higher Oil Prices." Business Money Why Vladimir Putin Needs Higher Oil Prices Comments. TIME, 5 July 2012. Web. 06 July 2013. The economy that the Russian President has built not only runs on oil, but runs on oil priced extremely high. Falling oil prices means rising problems for Russia – both for the strength of its economic performance, and possibly, the strength of Putin himself. Despite the fact that Russia has been labeled one of the world’s most promising emerging markets, often mentioned in the same breath as China and India, the Russian economy is actually quite different from the others. While India gains growth benefits from an expanding population, Russia, like much of Europe, is aging; while economists fret over China’s excessive dependence on investment, Russia badly needs more of it. Most of all, Russia is little more than an oil state in disguise. The country is the largest producer of oil in the world (yes, bigger even than Saudi Arabia), and Russia’s dependence on crude has been increasing. About a decade ago, oil and gas accounted for less than half of Russia’s exports; in recent years, that share has risen to two-thirds. Most of all, oil provides more than half of the federal government’s revenues. What’s more, the economic model Putin has designed in Russia relies heavily not just on oil, but high oil prices. Oil lubricates the Russian economy by making possible the increases in government largesse that have fueled Russian consumption. Budget spending reached 23.6% of GDP in the first quarter of 2012, up from 15.2% four years earlier. What that means is Putin requires a higher oil price to meet his spending requirements today than he did just a few years ago. Research firm Capital Economics figures that the government budget balanced at an oil price of $55 a barrel in 2008, but that now it balances at close to $120. Oil prices today have fallen far below that, with Brent near $100 and U.S. crude less than $90. The farther oil prices fall, the more pressure is placed on Putin’s budget, and the harder it is for him to keep spreading oil wealth to the greater population through the government. With a large swath of the populace angered by his re- election to the nation’s presidency in March, and protests erupting on the streets of Moscow, Putin can ill-afford a significant blow to the economy, or his ability to use government resources to firm up his popularity. That’s why Putin hasn’t been scaling back even as oil prices fall. His government is earmarking $40 billion to support the economy, if necessary, over the next two years. He does have financial wiggle room, even with oil prices falling. Moscow has wisely stashed away petrodollars into a rainy day fund it can tap to fill its budget needs. But Putin doesn’t have the flexibility he used to have. The fund has shrunk, from almost 8% of GDP in 2008 to a touch more than 3% today. The package, says Capital Economics, simply highlights the weaknesses of Russia’s economy:

Nuclear Terrorism Russian economic collapse causes nuclear terrorism Filger 9 (Sheldon, Columnist and Founder – Global EconomicCrisis.com, “Russian Economy Faces Disasterous Free Fall Contraction”, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sheldon-filger/russian-economy-faces- dis_b_201147.html) In Russia, historically, economic health and political stability are intertwined to a degree that is rarely encountered in other major industrialized economies. It was the economic stagnation of the former Soviet Union that led to its political downfall. Similarly, Medvedev and Putin, both intimately acquainted with their nation's history, are unquestionably alarmed at the prospect that Russia's economic crisis will endanger the nation's political stability, achieved at great cost after years of chaos following the demise of the Soviet Union. Already, strikes and protests are occurring among rank and file workers facing unemployment or non-payment of their salaries. Recent polling demonstrates that the once supreme popularity ratings of Putin and Medvedev are eroding rapidly. Beyond the political elites are the financial oligarchs, who have been forced to deleverage, even unloading their yachts and executive jets in a desperate attempt to raise cash. Should the Russian economy deteriorate to the point where economic collapse is not out of the question, the impact will go far beyond the obvious accelerant such an outcome would be for the Global Economic Crisis. There is a geopolitical dimension that is even more relevant then the economic context. Despite its economic vulnerabilities and perceived decline from superpower status, Russia remains one of only two nations on earth with a nuclear arsenal of sufficient scope and capability to destroy the world as we know it. For that reason, it is not only President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin who will be lying awake at nights over the prospect that a national economic crisis can transform itself into a virulent and destabilizing social and political upheaval. It just may be possible that U.S. President Barack Obama's national security team has already briefed him about the consequences of a major economic meltdown in Russia for the peace of the world. After all, the most recent national intelligence estimates put out by the U.S. intelligence community have already concluded that the Global Economic Crisis represents the greatest national security threat to the United States, due to its facilitating political instability in the world. During the years Boris Yeltsin ruled Russia, security forces responsible for guarding the nation's nuclear arsenal went without pay for months at a time, leading to fears that desperate personnel would illicitly sell nuclear weapons to terrorist organizations. If the current economic crisis in Russia were to deteriorate much further, how secure would the Russian nuclear arsenal remain? It may be that the financial impact of the Global Economic Crisis is its least dangerous consequence. **CHINA CP SOLVENCY GENERIC Existing Sino-Cuban partnership will continue to grow, providing an obstacle for U.S. involvement Nash 13 (Paul Nash. Contributor to the “Diplomatic Courier's.” 24 May 2013. Web. 6 July 2013. “How the Chinese are Helping to Transform Cuba, Again” http://www.diplomaticourier.com/news/regions/brics/1465-how-the-chinese-are-helping-to- transform-cuba-again) China is Cuba’s second largest trading partner after Venezuela, and Cuba is China’s largest trading partner in the Caribbean, with bilateral trade now standing at around $2 billion. Beijing wants to help Cuba push through market-oriented economic reforms, knowing from its own experience over the past three decades that private sector entrepreneurial activity can stimulate foreign investment, build national capital and promote domestic consumption. To this end, China has granted Cuba numerous long-term low or interest-free loans to support development and maintain financial and social stability through the reform process. It has also undertaken significant technology transfers and entered into joint ventures in farming, light industry, and tourism. Cuba has started the reform process focused on its biggest export industries. It has, for example, begun restructuring its ailing sugar industry by abolishing the sugar ministry and creating Azcuba, a state holding company consisting of 13 provincial sugar companies that operate 56 sugar mills and 850 sugarcane farms. Azcuba signed foreign investment agreements with companies from Brazil and Britain in 2012 to modernize harvesting equipment and build biomass energy plants. Cuba exports about 400,000 tonnes of sugar annually to China, more than half the amount it produces for domestic consumption. China’s interest in Cuba is, of course, inseparable from the Caribbean’s natural resources and those of Latin America more broadly. The Sino-Cuban economic fraternity, from Beijing’s viewpoint, is largely pragmatic rather than idealistic. Beijing has demonstrated that it will conduct business with left-leaning governments like Venezuela and Ecuador as readily as with right-leaning governments like Chile and Colombia. The Sino-Cuban partnership may represent a lost opportunity for the United States in promoting liberal democracy in the Western Hemisphere. But it may also represent a path to normalized relations if China can help Cuba’s economy reform such that it, like Vietnam’s, no longer justifies the continuation of a decades-old U.S. trade embargo on the basis that Cuba’s economy is “dominated or controlled by international communism.”

China is interested in using Latin America to expand its economy Johnson 5 (Stephen Johnson. “Balancing China’s Growing Influence in Latin America.” Backgrounder published by the Heritage Foundation. 24 October 2005. Web. 6 July 2013. http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2005/10/balancing-chinas-growing-influence-in-latin- america) China is the world’s oldest continuous civilization with more than 3,500 years of written history. Its power has risen and declined, most notably in the mid-1800s, when the ruling Qing Dynasty crumbled, inviting rebellion and foreign intervention. At the end of World War II, the Nationalist government, weakened by a decade of war against Japan and wracked by corruption and incompe- tence, fought a civil war against the Chinese Communist Party and was defeated. By 1950, communist leaders like Mao Zedong believed their authoritarianism would return China to glory, a belief that expired after 30 million people starved to death in state-induced famines in the early 1960s and another 10 million perished in fanatical ideological campaigns. In December 1978, after several “great leaps” backward, Communist Party leader Deng Xiaoping introduced economic reforms that have steadily transformed the PRC into a remarkable hybrid— a “socialist market economy”—in essence, a communist state that uses market-based pricing principles. Feeding the Dragon. Twenty-five years into this experiment, China has the world’s sixth-largest economy, the third-largest defense budget according to some estimates, and the largest national population (1.3 billion people). According to the World Bank, its gross domestic product of $1.6 trillion is growing about 9 percent per year. China needs resources to feed its rapidly expanding economy, but it does not have sufficient oil, natural gas, aluminum, copper, or iron to satisfy its energy and manufacturing needs. Furthermore, it needs trade partners to buy its electronics, apparel, toys, and footwear. While communist China is embracing market concepts, it still has a non- market economy in which a disciplined totalitarian party retains full authority (through the central government) over non-state investment, import, export, and financial decisions. China’s neighbors are competing for many of the same world markets, as are Europe and the United States. Latin America is a particularly promising prospect. It is relatively unindustrialized and has an abundance of raw materials. Moreover, authoritarian leaders and/or corrupt oligarchies control a number of governments. Signing purchase agreements with them is much easier than dealing with the panoply of private corporations found in more democratic countries. Challenging the United States. China’s main rival for global preeminence is the United States. China sees the United States as preventing Taiwan’s reunification with the mainland and thwarting Beijing’s rise as a power. Previously, China was isolated, but now plays key roles in Asian geopolitics and aspires to do so elsewhere. Besides status as a nuclear nation, it is a member of the U.N. Security Council, the World Trade Organization, the Group of 77 developing nations, and the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation group. It also holds observer status in the Organization of American States. While China has become the second-largest U.S. trade partner after Canada, it challenges U.S. influence wherever it can. In fact, it will soon have more attack submarines than the United States, with the addition of four Russian Kilo-class subs and new diesel–electric vessels equipped with technology that will allow them to run quieter than nuclear submarines. According to former U.S. Ambassador to Beijing James Lilly, “[T]he facts are that [the Chinese] run massive intelligence operations against us, they make open statements against us, their high-level documents show that they are not friendly to us.” Chinese military white papers promote power projection and describe U.S. policies as “hegemonism and power politics.” In the Western Hemisphere, the Chinese are taking advantage of failures of half-hearted market reforms and Washington’s unwillingness to pursue neighborhood relations with much enthusiasm. National Defense University professor Cynthia A. Watson notes, “[T]he 1990s turned into a period of severe disappointment as free markets led to rampant corruption and unfulfilled expectations in Latin America while Washington became the world’s superpower rather than a partner for the region.”

China’s economy and trade relations are growing faster than US Rapoza 13 (Kenneth Rapoza. “Just How Big Is China? Bigger Than You Think.” 5 April 2013. Web. 6 July 2013. http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2013/04/05/just-how-big-is- china-bigger-than-you-think/) By now, everyone knows that China is the world’s No. 2 economy and growing. Its GDP is around $7.5 trillion compared to the real No. 1, the U.S., at over $15 trillion. But that is changing. Just as each passing year seems to go faster than the next, China’s position on the world’s stage moves at break-neck speeds. Just how big is China? It is way bigger than you think. Within three years, the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development believes that China’s economy will surpass that of the United States. That means that by the time President Barack Obama is no longer in the White House, the new president will be the first since World War II to not govern the most powerful economy on Earth. Most estimates had China’s economy toppling that of the United States by 2020. Last year, China beat Germany and the U.S. to become the world’s biggest tourist source market. More middle- class Chinese are hightailing it out of their country. They are going luxury goods shopping in Europe and shaking hands with Goofy in Disney World. They spent over $102 billion last year, up from $73 billion in 2011, according to the United Nations World Tourism Organization. And they did this at a time when their economic growth is slowing due to a slowdown in Europe and a shift in domestic economic policy. Surprisingly, or not, China doesn’t need to grow at 10% to be in the big time. A slower 7.5% is just fine. China has tons of problems. It’s got the worst smog in the world. It’s currently battling another round of bird flu, a new strain that’s already claimed the lives of four people in a week. Over 16,000 diseased pigs were dumped in Shanghai rivers in March, possibly causing the outbreak of bird flu in the first place. In China, the phrase “Don’t drink the water!” needs to be heeded carefully. Decades of waste poured from factories and cities into China’s rivers have turned many of them into open sewers, according to the World Wildlife Fund. About 40% of the water in the country’s river systems is unfit for human consumption. China produces a new coal-fired power station every week, and will be the world’s biggest emitter of carbon-dioxide by 2030. Air, water and rising income inequality are now serious social problems for Beijing. This is what you get for growing so big, so fast. China’s economy has been on steroids for over 10 years. According to the latest research from the United Nations, China has further outpaced its competitors in world manufacturing, generating $2.9 trillion in output annually versus $2.43 trillion from the U.S., the world’s second-largest manufacturing economy. Over the last two years, China’s manufacturing sector has made strong gains, while the U.S. has been on Fed life support.“In 2011, China’s manufacturing output surged by 23% while manufacturing output in the U.S. only increased by 2.8%,” the American Enterprise Institute‘s Mark Perry said in his Carpe Diem blog on Friday. “That brought China’s manufacturing output last year to more than $2.9 trillion, which was almost half a trillion dollars (and 20%) more manufacturing output than the $2.43 trillion of manufacturing output that was produced in the U.S. last year.” In 2012, U.S. manufacturing slipped to 1.7% growth, according to the Federal Reserve. Sure, U.S. manufacturing is getting bigger. But China’s manufacturing is getting humongous. China drives Asia, and Made in China drives the cheap, consumer culture in America. Buy sneakers or a shirt, a piece of furniture or a Barbie Doll, and it probably has Made in China stamped on it. Even as U.S. manufacturing is on the upswing, it is no match for big China. The U.S. imports from Asia rose 22% in February. Most of it comes from China, of course. In fact, the U.S. imported $32.7 billion worth of goods from China in February, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Foreign Trade division, making it once again the leading country in which the U.S. conducts its foreign trade. Canada came in second with $25.7 billion, but that is mostly due to oil. Even as China moves its way up to the No. 3 trading partner with the U.S., trailing NAFTA partners Canada and Mexico, the trade deficit between the U.S. and China keeps getting bigger. In 2012, the U.S. registered its biggest trade deficit ever with China at $315 billion, up from a record $295 billion in 2011 and another record of $273 billion in 2010. Yes, China keeps breaking records EMBARGO EXCEPTION – AG China and Cuba have a strong agricultural relationship involving technology transfer Hearn 9, Adrian H. "Cuba and China: Lessons and Opportunities for the United States." The Cuban Research Institute Florida International University, June 2009. Web. 6 July 2013. . Chinese enterprises have developed a broad range of industrial initiatives in Cuba. Agricultural cooperation has focused on the production of rice, soy, sorghum, and maize, and Cuba exports 400,000 tonnes of raw sugar annually to China. Scientific exchange has developed in earthquake detection, solar energy research, cancer treatment, and vaccine production. In 2004, Hu Jintao pledged to invest $500 million in Cuba’s nickel sector, and although Venezuela emerged as the leading financier of the Las Camariocas ferro-nickel plant, China has since consumed 20,000 tons of the resource (Cheng 2009:1). The Chinese oil company Sinopec has teamed up with Cuba’s CUPET to develop onshore operations in Pinar del Rio (CRS 2008:24), while the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) is negotiating exploration of Cuban deposits in the Gulf of Mexico. In 2007, 10,000 Chinese tourists visited Cuba, and as discussed below, electronics manufacturing and transport infrastructure have emerged as key areas of expansion. China often pays for developing country natural resources with trade credits, construction equipment, infrastructure upgrading, and technical training rather than hard currency (Robles 2005). The significance of such exchanges does not lie in their capacity to generate short-term commerce, but rather in the more encompassing goal of building stable alliances, political trust, and economic growth over the long term. This is facilitated by direct collaboration between the Cuban and Chinese governments, whose state-owned enterprises do not duplicate, undercut, or compete with each other. Even China’s more strictly commercial goals in Cuba, such as filling Cuban homes and stores with Chinese electronic appliances, have been accomplished in close collaboration with the Cuban state.

Cuba should export to china while reserving some for domestic use Patil 13, Vishal. "Cuban Sugar Sector Aims for Recovery in 2013 | SUGAR INDUSTRY."Cuban Sugar Sector Aims for Recovery in 2013 | SUGAR INDUSTRY. N.p., 12 Jan. 2013. Web. 06 July 2013. . The authorities believe that Azcuba will serve as a perfect test case for more effective functioning of the production chain, since it encompasses every stage of the chain, from the production of raw material to export. “The revitalisation of this sector is good news for our country, because sugar continues to serve as a guarantee for international credits and foreign sales are a secure source of income,” a specialised economist told IPS. Of its total annual production, Cuba should export 400,000 tonnes of sugar to China, while supplying between 550,000 and 700,000 tonnes for domestic consumption. * This story was originally published by Latin American newspapers that are part of the Tierramérica network. Tierramérica is a specialised news service produced by IPS with the backing of the United Nations Development Programme, United Nations Environment Programme and the World Bank. SUGAR

China’s sugar demand is projected to skyrocket Orlowski 13, Steven. "Demand For Sugar On The Rise." - Seeking Alpha. N.p., 17 Dec. 2012. Web. 06 July 2013. . According to the Financial Times, “a mysterious white substance is being smuggled over the border from Vietnam to China in growing quantities.” Of course this substance is a staple of modern Western society and something increasingly in demand in China and other emerging markets. The FT states that: “China is the world’s top importer of raw sugar and third-largest consumer overall. Toby Cohen, a director at London sugar merchant Czarnikow, points out that China’s overall sugar consumption is still low in per capita terms, and expects it to keep growing. China could consume “double the volume of sugar it is consuming today, and still be consuming less on a per capita basis than the western economies,” he said.” The urbanization of China is credited for this rising demand but urbanization is not anomalous to China. Other emerging markets are experiencing increased demand for sugar and other agricultural food stuffs. For emerging markets investors interested in profiting from this demand there are several options to choose from. One way to invest in the anticipated price increase of sugar is by owning the iPath DJ-UBS Sugar Subindex Total Return Index ETN (SGG). SGG does not invest in companies that produce sugar but in sugar futures contracts. This is more of a pure play on the price of sugar which will be affected worldwide as increased demand from emerging markets should drive prices higher.

China will be number one sugar importer in 2020 Goldman 12, Joe. "Agrimoney.com | Chinese Sugar - Chinese Taste for Sugar to Send Demand Soaring." Agrimoney.com | Chinese Sugar - Chinese Taste for Sugar to Send Demand Soaring. Agrimoney.com, 18 Jan. 2012. Web. 06 July 2013. . Rising Chinese consumption of farm commodities, which has revolutionised markets for crops such as soybeans, looks set to shake-up sugar too, as consumers quit their low-sweetener diet. China, set to rise up the ranks to fourth among world sugar importers in 2011-12, is set to hit top rank by 2020, with purchases of some 4m-5m tonnes, Commonwealth Bank of Australia said. And even this will not mark the end of demand growth, with consumption likely to rise by a further 60%, on a per capita basis, by 2030. The surge in Chinese demand will have a large impact on world sugar markets, meaning "that any Chinese production scares will have a more pronounced impact on international trade flows and therefore on global sugar price volatility", CBA analyst Luke Mathews said. Sweeter tooth The thesis is based on the idea that relatively low annual sugar consumption rates among Chinese, of 7.6 kilogrammes per person, will close the gap with Western ones as diet changes. Besides increased wealth, urbanisation tends to enhance sugar consumption by boosting the spread of refrigeration and, with it, carbonated – and sweetened - drinks. Official statisticians in China said earlier this week that the country's urban dwellers now accounted for 51% of the population, exceeding rural inhabitants for the first time. CBA's central forecast is for annual sugar consumption, per person, to rise to 12.6 kilogrammes by 2020 and 20 kilogrammes a decade later – still well short of rates seen in the West. Australians eat 47 kilogrammes of sugar a year, and US consumers nearly 68 kilogrammes.

Current Cuban sugar industry ventures do not consider the United States Lina 12 (Yang Lina. “Cuba Opens Sugar Industry to Foreign Investment.” Web. 6 July 2013. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2012-09/10/c_131840344.htm) Cuba has authorized the first joint venture in the sugar industry in a bid to boost efficiency, modern technology to revitalize the sector. The state-run Sugar Group Azcuba was approved a month ago to create the first joint venture with foreign capital, to build a bioelectrical power station in the Ciro Redondo sugar factory, 45,000 km east of Havana. "The main goal is to achieve a diversified sugar industry to obtain the economic goals we have along with a high integration of the technicians," Wilson Morell, vice-president of Azcuba, told Xinhua in a recent interview during the Congress of Sugar Industry technicians which ended last Friday at the Havana Convention Palace. New facilities in the sugar factory will allow a greater contribution of electricity to the national network, Morell said, adding it will be the first step for the creation of similar units for better use of the energetic potential of the sugar cane, Another project with foreign capital at the sugar mill in the central province of Cienfuegos was also approved last Friday, he added. However, the official did not specify which foreign company would participate in the project. In January, the Brazilian group Odebrecht announced the signing of a contract with Azcuba for the productive management of a sugar factory in Cienfuegos. For over a century, Cuba was among the world's top sugar exporters, exceeding 8 million tons annually. But the industry shrank after the fall of the Soviet Union, Cuba's main economic ally. The island country's sugar production hit a historical low in 2009 with only 1.1 million tons. President Raul Castro has been trying to restore the sector with new technologies and systems to achieve a more efficient management and generate exports capable of financing its own expenses. The 2011-2012 is the first production season after Castro implemented reforms to modernize the industry, including dissolving the Sugar Ministry and replacing it with the more free market-style Azcuba, a company with representations in every province. Azcuba is comprised by 13 sugar companies, 56 sugar factories and derivatives, two research institutes and a qualification center. CUBA – GENERIC China works with Cuba now, they just need to increase investment Ritter 13, Arch. "Tag Archives: Sugar Sector." The Cuban Economy La Economa Cubana. United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America, 22 May 2013. Web. 06 July 2013. . By contrast, there is a fresh buzz of activity in Mejico. In the nearby fields, workers have been rushing to cut the cane before the weather turns. A shiny new Brazilian harvester charges forward, swallowing up the cane as it goes. Cuba has invested in some new equipment to kick-start its revamped sugar business. It is one of four machines Cuba invested in for the mill re-opening, far more efficient than the aging, Soviet alternative. There have been teething troubles with the re-opening. New machine parts arrived late, the workforce is young and inexperienced, and production is below target. Senior staff have slept little, under pressure to perform. But the whole community is willing this to succeed. Some pensioners are helping out at the mill for free, passing their expertise to a new, young generation. And many sugar workers who took up farming when the mill closed have hung up their spades and returned. “They like the mill. It’s a tradition here, more than anything. And it’s more secure work, right next to their homes,” explains mill director Jesus Perez Collazo. “There are a lot of challenges. The harvest is not as good as we wanted but the country needs to produce sugar, and we can help,” he says. China buys 400,000 tonnes of sugar from Cuba a year; now production is increasing, Azcuba says international brokers are also knocking at the door.

Sino-Cuban economic relations are resilient. US involvement is by no means necessary. Whitney 2012 (W.T. Whitney Jr. He practiced and taught pediatrics for 35 years and long ago joined the Cuba solidarity movement, working with Let Cuba Live of Maine, Pastors for Peace, and the Venceremos Brigade. He writes on Latin America and health issues for the People's World. “Cuba reaffirms ties with China”. People’s World. March 5, 2012. Accessed July 6, 2013. http://www.peoplesworld.org/cuba-reaffirms-ties-with-china/) In line with half a century of firm ties between Cuba and the People's Republic of China, and strengthened relations recently, Cuban Council of State Vice President Marino Murillo Jorge journeyed to Beijing in late February for a "working visit."¶ Cuba became the first West Hemisphere nation to recognize the government of revolutionary China in 1960 when Cuban leader Fidel Castro interrupted a speech to ask whether or not diplomatic relations should be opened with the People's Republic. A million hands went up. In a reciprocal token of well-timed outreach, former Chinese President Jiang Zemin, alone among foreign leaders, visited beleaguered Cuba in 1993 following the Soviet Bloc collapse.¶ Murillo's weeklong discussions this time involved Chinese Vice-Prime Minister Hui Liangyu. They included a report on the Cuban Communist Party's recent party conference and proposals for new collaborative agricultural, scientific, commercial, and economic projects. Murillo, member of the Cuban party's Political Bureau and coordinator of Cuba's current economic reforms, met with top economic planners representing China's National Commission of Reform and Development.¶ The present era of cooperation began in Nov. 2004, when Chinese President Hu Jintao brought 200 businesspersons and investors to Cuba. He ended up signing a 16-point bi-national agreement covering bio-technical, higher education, telecommunications, nickel extraction initiatives, and more, with China providing favorable credit terms.¶ Follow-up took place in Havana in 2009, as national assembly presidents of the two nations agreed on new financial and commercial arrangements, and prepared for Cuban port, radio and television, and bulk transport modernization. In Dec. 2011, Cuban Council of State Vice-Minister Ricardo Cabrisas, meeting in China with the inter-governmental Cuba-China Commission, signed updates and reported on the 6th Cuban Communist Party Congress of that year.¶ Bilateral trade rose from $590 million in 2004 to $1.8 billion in 2010. China became Cuba's second largest trading partner, exceeded only by Venezuela. Chinese trade with Latin America overall has increased 42 percent over five years.¶ China has supplied Cuba with domestic electrical appliances, medical and electronic equipment, buses (8000 so far), locomotives, and bicycle-making machines. Cuba provides sugar, rum, cigars, high technology medications and vaccines, and 14 percent of the nickel China needs for steel production. China's Sinopec oil corporation has assumed a lead role in exploring underwater oil deposits off Cuba's northern coast. Sinopec's massive Scarabeo 9 drilling platform arrived recently from China.¶ Chinese specialists have upgraded Cuba's meteorological and earthquake-detection capabilities. Cuba's Molecular Immunology Center (MIC) recently announced that the anti-lung cancer vaccine CimaVax-EGF, made by the Cuban-Chinese Biotech Pharmaceutical Ltd (BPL) Company, would undergo trials in China. MIC head Augustin Lage visited China in February to assess use of Nimotuzumab monoclonal antibody, a BPL product directed at several human several cancers.¶ Offering Spanish language courses to Chinese students, the University of Havana recently awarded 49 diplomas in China, where students were taught by Cuban professors, while 71 others graduated in Havana. Altogether since 2004, 3,497 Chinese students have qualified at Cuban universities in medicine, nursing, humanities, tourism, and Spanish language and culture.¶ Cuba and China maintained ties over decades despite Cuban reliance economically and politically upon the Soviet Union, China's ideological rival. Asked by interviewer Ignacio Ramonet about socialism's future, Fidel Castro held up China as an example, as "a great power that did not destroy its history, a great power that held to certain fundamental principles, that sought unity, that didn't fragment its forces."("Fidel Castro, My Life," Scribner, 2006, p.623.) AFF A2: CHINA CP China won’t create sugar ethanol- trades off with edible sugar Liang 12 (Lei. "Simultaneous Production of Sugar and Ethanol from Sugarcane in China, the Development, Research and Prospect Aspects." Guangdong Academy of Industrial Technology, 4 Aug. 2012. Web. 6 July 2013. .) A major concern of developing sugarcane ethanol in China is the threat to sugar security. Rapid expansion of bioethanol production could potentially reduce the availability of sugar production, causing a reduction in its supply and increase of sugar price. In recent years, the sugar productions are stably at about 12 million tons, the max exceeded 14.84 million tons in 2008. While the total demand for sugar is about 12 million tons in China. With the combination of the further expansion of about 2 million acres sugarcane areas, and applying the advanced technology, for example: genetically modified sugarcane and improved cultivation techniques, yields can be increased from 5 tons to about 6-7 tons . So the sugar productions in China are expected to over 16 million tons. Based on these estimates, without affecting the supply of sugar, the current potential of sugarcane ethanol production reached over 2 million tons. China can’t make ethanol economically competitive Harman 8, David. "Surplus Sugar in China Will Not Be Used to Make Ethanol." Resource Investor. Interfax China Commodities Daily Reports, 24 Apr. 2008. Web. 06 July 2013. . China's sugar surplus will not be used to produce ethanol as it is not commercially viable, according to an expert. Thanks to a bumper sugarcane harvest, China is expected to witness a sugar supply surplus of between 0.5 million to 1 million tonnes in the 2007/2008 season, industry players have forecast. "It is impossible for China to develop sugar- ethanol projects as they are economically unsound," a sugar specialist from the Yunnan Sugar Association (YSA), who wished to remain anonymous, toldInterfax. "Producing 1 tonne of ethanol consumes around 2 tonnes of sugar. But 1 tonne of ethanol costs around RMB 4,800 ($685.71) here in Kunming and 2 tonnes of sugar cost around RMB 7,000 ($1,000)," the expert said. "Sugar-to-ethanol technology is not a problem in China, but such projects would never be promoted until sugar production costs drop to low enough levels." Without additional consumption sources like bioenergy projects, excessive sugar output this season has eaten at sugar prices and both sugarcane farmers and sugarcane crushing mills are suffering, the expert pointed out. "The profitability of crushing mills in southern China has shrunk heavily this season. Farmers are also very disappointed. As far as I know, some of them plan to shift their land to grains, fruits or tobacco next season for better economic returns," the expert said. **Consult Russia CP 1NC Text: The United States Federal Government should enter into genuine, binding consultations with the Russian Federation over (insert plan here) Russia will say Yes Global Research, Centre for Research on globalization, 11 November 2008. Russia Urges Obama to Lift Cuba Embargo, Respect World Opinion, http://www.globalresearch.ca/russia-urges-obama-to-lift-cuba-embargo- respect-world-opinion/10910

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called on U.S. President-elect Barack Obama to rethink the U.S. economic embargo against Cuba, which has been in place for nearly half a century.¶ Lavrov said after talks in Moscow today with his Cuban counterpart Felipe Perez Roque that the “overwhelming majority” of countries, including Russia, opposed the U.S. trade embargo and had voted against it in the United Nations General Assembly.¶ The U.S. imposed a trade embargo against Cuba in 1962 to put pressure on its Communist government, which rose to power in a 1959 revolution led by Fidel Castro, who ceded power to his brother in February. In 2000, U.S. lawmakers eased the rules to allow the export of agricultural and medical goods to Cuba. Shipments increased 31 percent last year to $447 million.¶ The UN General Assembly on Oct. 29 voted for the 17th consecutive year in favor of a resolution that calls on the U.S. to lift the embargo. Three countries — the U.S., Israel and Palau — opposed the resolution, while 185 countries voted in favor and two, the Federated States of Micronesia and the Marshall Islands, abstained.¶ Obama has promised to review U.S. policy toward Cuba. While this is a U.S. decision, Russia hopes that Obama will take into account “the voice of the international community,” Lavrov said in comments broadcast on state television.

Consult Russia key to minimize the possibility of escalation Pifer, Steven P. 21 Mar. 2012"The Future Course of the U.S.-Russia Relationship." The Brookings Institution. House Committee on Foreign Affairs,. Web. 06 July 2013. .

U.S. and Russian interests differ in the post-Soviet space, the region that is most likely to generate a major crisis in bilateral relations. Moscow seeks to gain influence over its neighbors, using mechanisms such as the Customs Union with Kazakhstan and Belarus. The Russians seek deference from other states in the post-Soviet space on issues that they define as affecting critical Russian interests. One example is staunch Russian opposition to the enlargement of NATO or the European Union into the post-Soviet space. Russian policies often seem to have the effect of pushing neighboring states away from Moscow, but the Russians have not changed course The United States takes a different approach, rejecting the notion of a sphere of influence and supporting the right of each post-Soviet state to choose its own course. Some tension between the two approaches is inevitable. Washington should expect the kinds of tit-for-tat exchanges that have occurred in the past, such as when a U.S. Navy ship visit to Georgia was followed by a Russian warship calling on Venezuela. Given the difference in approaches, it would be wise for Washington and Moscow to consult closely and be transparent with one another on their policies in the post- Soviet space, so as to avoid surprises and minimize the chances that a clash of interests could escalate. One other difficult issue is the democracy and human rights situation within Russia. While Russian citizens today enjoy considerably more individual freedoms than they did during the time of the Soviet Union, it is equally true that they enjoy fewer freedoms, are more subject to arbitrary and capricious state action, and have less political influence than during the 1990s, however chaotic that period was.

Could escalate into a new proxy Cold War Walle, Walter. "Russia Turns to the South for Military and Economic Alliances." Council on Hemispheric Affairs. N.p., 8 May 2012. Web. 06 July 2013. .

Demonstrably, Russia has been developing cooperative relationships with prominent organizational bodies of the region, such as the OAS (Organization of American States), and has ratified visa-free travel agreements with countries like Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador, Peru, Brazil, Chile, and Argentina. In his article, Lavrov argues that Russia’s intention behind quests for partnerships is the establishment of non-ideologized relationships with Latin American countries, relationships that could be of mutual benefit to all parties involved. However, the Russian stance on Latin America ultimately may be cause for apprehension. The establishment of bilateral, cordial relations between Russia and Latin American countries could evolve to a proxy, neo-Cold War scenario. If the situation in the regions worsens, some countries would be funded and supported by the U.S., while others, including several members of Latin America’s “New Left”, would become the major beneficiaries of Moscow. An analogy of such practice is the Georgia – Russia crisis that surfaced in August of 2008. During this brief war, the U.S. sent military aid to Georgia[24] on warships to territory Russia considers its “backyard” (i.e. the Caucasus and the Black Sea), infuriating Moscow. A month after the conflict erupted, ostensibly in retaliation, Russia sent two Tu-160 bombers to conduct military exercises with Washington’s least favorite nation in Latin America: Venezuela[25]. More importantly, in November of 2008 Moscow conducted war games with Caracas, in which a small Russian fleet was sent to the Caribbean to participate in joint naval maneuvers with the Venezuelan navy.[26] This was a powerful symbolic act: as it was the first time that Russian warships had visited the Caribbean since the Cuban Missile Crisis. In the wake of the post-Georgia conflict, such joint military maneuvers between Russia and Venezuela were revitalized, and helped to build up the tensions between Washington and Moscow, sending strong signals of a Cold War revival. Furthermore, in the aftermath of the declarations of independence by the breakaway regions of Georgia, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Venezuela[27] and Nicaragua[28] were alone among Latin American countries in recognizing the independence of the new republics.

A new Cold War would be detrimental to our energy supplies and arms control agreements Perlow, Jason. 2008."The Technological and Economic Impact of a New Cold War." ZDNet. N.p., Web. 06 July 2013. . The events of the last several weeks surrounding Russia's invasion of Georgia and its recognition of the rogue provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia have threatened to spiral into another Cold War and set US and Russian relations back to the early 1960's. No, let me rephrase that -- I think we already HAVE set U.S. and Russian relations back to the early 1960's. It's time to bring Henry Kissinger back into active duty, folks. The bad ‘ol Russia is back. Since that utterly brilliant move of our country to sign a missile treaty with Poland on August 15th, we've heard an alarming amount of increased saber rattling from Ivan and the UN has de-normalized its relations with Russia. There's been motions to expel Russia from the G8, although it doesn't look like things will materialize and our allies have backed down. With all this Presidential campaign stuff going on, and the distraction of another major hurricane hitting the United States, has anyone really been paying attention? That the doomsday clock just went"Tick" a minute closer to midnight? Well, its time to pay attention, people. All this scary stuff aside - and it is scary and it is very real - there are other serious consequences to think about besides Armageddon if we can't start the warming process between our two countries again.The first of which is Russian petroleum, which is the 6th largest source of oil imports to the United States. If our relations with Russia continue to strain, and either they or we break formal ties with each other, it's going to have a significant impact on energy costs. While 6th largest doesn't sound like a hell of a lot, imagine what might happen if we stop Russian companies like LUKOIL from doing business in the U.S., which brings in its oil from other sources besides Russia and is one of the largest retail gasoline vendors on the East Coast? Are we too gutless and desperate for energy to do something like this? Maybe. But if things continue to get worse, I wouldn't count this scenario out completely. Then of course are our technological partnerships with Russia, the most prevalent being space exploration. Right now, we are extremely dependent on Russia's Energia company and their Soyuz and Progress spacecraft to help get our astronauts and resupply back and forth to the International Space Station when the shuttles are being serviced or when needed for additional capacity. According to current NASA plans, the Space Shuttle is due to retire in 2010. Well, if things go down the proverbial toilet with Russia, I think its safe to say that if we do retire the shuttle on the current proposed schedule, not only are we going to be stuck without launch capacity until our new Orion launch vehicle and spacecraft are ready, sometime around 2015 or 2016, but the entire International Space Station program is probably at serious risk, given that Russia's Space Agency has contributed a significant amount of its budget towards it. I'm not sure if it would be possible to split the ISS down in Solomon fashion, but it's gonna get interesting for sure if we need to put a Checkpoint Charlie on the Zvezda module and other Russian-contributed pieces of the ISS. Due to current events NASA is already talking about extending the life of the Space Shuttle until 2015 -- a costly and dangerous measure considering the age of those remaining airframes. There are other areas in which we cooperate with Russia which could have serious consequences on technological and medical advancement. If the Bilateral Science and Technology Cooperation Agreement is revoked or terminated, it could have drastic effects on high-tech and medical science, particularly if we start sending Russian researchers housed in the US packing, and vice-versa. And then of course is our overall Strategic Framework with Russia, which if revoked or nullified in any form, could have extremely serious consequences, particularly in the areas of arms control and restricting nuclear material from dangerous nations UQ Relations low now Geropoulos, 2013 Kostis. "Neurope.eu." Neurope.eu. N.p., 25 June 2013. Web. 06 July 2013. . On 25 June, US-Russian relations seemed to take another turn for the worse as Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared to rule out American requests for the extradition of whistleblower Edward Snowden to the United States. Speaking at a news conference while on an official visit to Finland, Putin said Snowden had broken no Russian laws. The Kremlin leader offered no new information on where Snowden might be headed from the transit area of Moscow’s Sheremetyevo Airport. “Mr Snowden is a free man,” Putin said. “The faster he chooses his ultimate destination, the better for us and for him.” For their part, American officials, including US Secretary of State John Kerry, lashed out on 24 June against Russia for reportedly permitting Snowden safe transit. SAY YES They'll say yes Interfax. 30 Apr. 2013. "Russian Foreign Ministry Urges U.S. to Lift Embargo against Cuba." Russia Beyond The Headlines. RBTH Network, Web. 06 July 2013. .

Russia is urging the quickest cancellation of the U.S. trade and economic embargo against Cuba, the Russian Foreign Ministry said. "Our stance on the issue is well-known. Russia, as well as the majority of the global community members, supports the quickest cancellation of the trade, economic and financial embargo imposed by the United States against Cuba, which is a relic of the 'cold war' times," the Information and Press Department of the Russian foreign Ministry said in a statement posted on its website on Tuesday Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov declared firmly this position when speaking at the general political discussion of the 67th session of the UN General Assembly on September 28, 2012 in New York, the statement said. "Our country traditionally supports the Cuban draft of the UN General Assembly's resolution "Necessity of ending the economic, commercial and financial embargo imposed by the U.S. against Cuba," which is kind of an attitude barometer of the global community to the issue. During the latest vote, 186 countries voted in favor, two against and three refrained," the Russian Foreign Ministry said. The Russian ministry said that a new statement of the Russian State Duma "To Parliaments of UN member-states on the necessity to lift the economic, trade and financial embargo against Cuba" was approved on November 20, 2012. "We are intending to support Havana firmly and consistently regarding this issue," the statement said.

Russia wants the embargo removed RTBH 13. Russia beyond the headlines. "Russian Foreign Ministry urges U.S. to lift embargo against Cuba". April 30th, 2013. Accessed online at: rbth.ru/news/2013/04/30/russian_foreign_ministry_urges_us_to_lift_embargo_ against_cuba_25628.html

Russia is urging the quickest cancellation of the U.S. trade and economic embargo against Cuba, the Russian Foreign Ministry said. "Our stance on the issue is well-known. Russia, as well as the majority of the global community members, supports the quickest cancellation of the trade, economic and financial embargo imposed by the United States against Cuba, which is a relic of the 'cold war' times," the Information and Press Department of the Russian foreign Ministry said in a statement posted on its website on Tuesday. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov declared firmly this position when speaking at the general political discussion of the 67th session of the UN General Assembly on September 28, 2012 in New York, the statement said. "Our country traditionally supports the Cuban draft of the UN General Assembly's resolution "Necessity of ending the economic, commercial and financial embargo imposed by the U.S. against Cuba," which is kind of an attitude barometer of the global community to the issue. During the latest vote, 186 countries voted in favor, two against and three refrained," the Russian Foreign Ministry said. The Russian ministry said that a new statement of the Russian State Duma "To Parliaments of UN member- states on the necessity to lift the economic, trade and financial embargo against Cuba" was approved on November 20, 2012. "We are intending to support Havana firmly and consistently regarding this issue," the statement said.

Russia wants the embargo removed Bridge 12 . Robert Bridge, political commentator for Russia Today (RT), and the former Editor-in-Chief of The Moscow News. . "Moscow votes to end Washington's 52- year Cuban embargo". Russia Times. November 14th, 2012. Accessed online at: rt.com/politics/moscow-cuba-washington-embargo-churkin-669/ All US presidents from John F Kennedy to Barack Obama have kept the Cuban people under a harsh American economic embargo, which Russia says has failed to influence the Cuban peoples’ “sovereign choice”. When Cuban leader Fidel Castro made the historic decision to align his country with the Soviet Union at the height of the Cold War, the Kennedy administration imposed a harsh embargo on the Caribbean nation (But not before – the story goes – cigar-smoking JFK was able to buy, through his press secretary Pierre Salinger, 1,201 Havana Petit H. Upmann cigars). Fifty-two years later, the embargo – which has been ineffectual at curing Cuba of communism – remains in force. On Tuesday, Russia threw its support behind a UN resolution that calls on Washington to end the trade embargo, Russian Permanent Representative to the United Nations Vitaly Churkin said at a meeting of the UN General Assembly on Tuesday. "We hope that after the US government eases its embargo in certain areas – in particular, on US citizens' visiting relatives in Cuba, as well as on making money transfers and postal orders. Other steps for the final lifting of the embargo will follow," the Russian ambassador said from the rostrum of the UN General Assembly. He stressed that Russia has consistently called for the termination of the embargo, in addition to halting “political and military pressure that aggravates confrontational tendencies in international relations." Solvency

Consulting key to security and stability Graham, Allison, Dimitri Simes, and Paul Saunders. Oct. 2011"Russia and U.S. National Interests Why Should Americans Care?" Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. N.p.,. Web. 6 July 2013. . While President Medvedev’s proposed security treaty is not the solution, refusing to discuss a new security system effectively excludes Russia from European security and encourages Moscow to balance against the United States and NATO. This does not advance U.S. national interests. The existing system also leaves many disputes and frozen conflicts unresolved. Both the United States and its European allies should welcome a new mechanism of conflict prevention, interdiction and resolution in Europe, including post-conflict stabilization, that would be less prone to deadlocks similar to those seen in the UN Security Council over Kosovo, and that could be employed in a timely manner to prevent conflicts similar to the August 2008 war in which Russia sided with Georgia’s separatist provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Integrating Russia into the European security system in a mutually-acceptable manner, or even consulting more frequently and intensively with Moscow, could contribute valuably to security and stability in a strategically and economically critical region. A more effective security architecture in Europe could also help win Russian cooperation in other areas, including vis-à-vis China. Moscow is very unlikely to take any chances with Beijing when it is simultaneously insecure to the West. Yet, China’s rapid economic growth, along with its increasing regional and global political influence, seems likely to be a central challenge facing the United States and Russia in the coming decades. America’s critical task in managing China’s rise is to shape the international environment in ways that will encourage Beijing to work within and adapt to the existing global order rather than seeking to redefine it substantially at America’s expense. This in turn requires the United States to work closely with the world’s other major powers, including Russia. Needless to say, pursuing such discussions with Moscow will not be easy; any effort to work with Russia to manage China’s rise will require patient and careful diplomacy, clear demonstration of the potential benefits to Russia, articulation of an approach that will not alienate Beijing, and a deeper sense of trust than currently exists. Net Bens Missile Defense Dialogue key to overcoming problems in relations and finding a solution to missile defense Graham, Allison, Dimitri Simes, and Paul Saunders. Oct. 2011"Russia and U.S. National Interests Why Should Americans Care?" Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. N.p.,. Web. 6 July 2013. .

The Obama Administration’s reset policy has contributed to significant improvements in the U.S.- Russian relationship. Unfortunately, the reset is still fragile and what remains to be done is likely to be much more difficult than what has been accomplished so far. Twice before, under the Clinton and George W. Bush Administrations, U.S.-Russian relations moved in the direction of a new and different relationship—yet both times, the efforts stalled. In some respects, difficulty sustaining improvements in the U.S.- Russia relationship has had less to do with specific differences and more to do with an inability to break down lasting mutual distrust. This suspicion of one another’s motives may in fact be a greater obstacle to cooperation than sometimes divergent national interests and values. Some of the most challenging problems, like missile defense, are quite hard to manage without mutual confidence, but failure to manage them only creates further doubt in the minds of leaders in both capitals. Addressing these difficult issues requires a process of dialogue that works simultaneously toward building more trust and toward developing practical policy solutions. Shared success in tackling hard problems can create its own momentum. Domestic politics in each country makes this even more challenging. When U.S. and Russian leaders seek to portray their improving relations as important diplomatic successes, their political opponents naturally take a contrary view. Politics can play a considerable role in shaping U.S.- Russian relations, something that became apparent during the 2010 debate over the New START Treaty in the United States. Missile defense key to relations Samad, Jewel. 10 June 2013"Missile Defense Key to Developing US- Russian Ties – MP." RIA Novosti. AFP,. Web. 06 July 2013. MOSCOW, June 10 (RIA Novosti) – Resolving differences between Russia and the United States over missile defense is key to developing bilateral relations, a senior Russian lawmaker said Monday. “Missile defense has become a key issue: If we find a common language here, we could speak of a beginning of new positive dynamics in US-Russian relations,” Alexei Pushkov, head of the Russian lower house of parliament’s international affairs committee, said at a RIA Novosti press conference. Pushkov said Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart, Barack Obama, were expected to discuss missile defense, which remains a sticking point in bilateral ties, at the upcoming G8 summit in Northern Ireland’s Lough Erne on June 17-18.

Relations key to reductions in nuke weapons, North Korea, Iran and Central Asian Security Pifer, Steven P. 21 Mar. 2012"The Future Course of the U.S.-Russia Relationship." The Brookings Institution. House Committee on Foreign Affairs,. Web. 06 July 2013. .

Looking forward in its relations with Russia, the United States should pursue further reductions of nuclear arms, including non-strategic nuclear weapons; continue to explore a cooperative NATO-Russia missile defense arrangement; seek to work jointly to deal with the proliferation challenges posed by North Korea and Iran; and consult on steps to bolster security and stability in Central Asia as the NATO coalition prepares to withdraw its military forces from Afghanistan. The United States should explore ways to increase trade and investment relations with Russia, which could help build a foundation for a more sustainable relationship. While Moscow’s decisions about its business and investment climate—for example, to strengthen rule of law and tackle corruption—are the most important factor in this regard, Congress should now graduate Russia from the provisions of the Jackson-Vanik amendment, an action that is long overdue. Syria Mod Especially now with the Syria situation, the U.S. should consult Russia Pifer, Steven P. 21 Mar. 2012"The Future Course of the U.S.-Russia Relationship." The Brookings Institution. House Committee on Foreign Affairs,. Web. 06 July 2013. . Looking forward in its relations with Russia, the United States should pursue further reductions of nuclear arms, including non-strategic nuclear weapons; continue to explore a cooperative NATO-Russia missile defense arrangement; seek to work jointly to deal with the proliferation challenges posed by North Korea and Iran; and consult on steps to bolster security and stability in Central Asia as the NATO coalition prepares to withdraw its military forces from Afghanistan. The United States should explore ways to increase trade and investment relations with Russia, which could help build a foundation for a more sustainable relationship. While Moscow’s decisions about its business and investment climate—for example, to strengthen rule of law and tackle corruption—are the most important factor in this regard, Congress should now graduate Russia from the provisions of the Jackson-Vanik amendment, an action that is long overdue. On questions where positions diverge, such as Syria, Washington should press its case. Differing views of the post-Soviet space represent the potential flashpoint most likely to trigger a major U.S.-Russia crisis; Washington should consult closely with Moscow in a transparent way to manage differences over that region. With regard to democracy and human rights within Russia, the U.S. government should continue to voice its concerns, consider ways to assist the growth of civil society in Russia, and maintain contact with the full spectrum of Russian society. But Washington should recognize that its ability to affect the internal situation in Russia is limited.

Consultations between U.S. and Russia key to implementating a solution in Syria UN News Center. 05 June 2013"Syria Peace Conference May Now Take Place in July – Joint UN-Arab League Envoy." UN,. Web. 06 July 2013. .

Further steps have been taken towards the convening of an international conference on Syria but it will not be possible to hold it this month as planned, the Joint Special Representative of the United Nations and the Arab League for Syria, Lakhdar Brahimi, said today. “There is still a lot of work to do to bring a conference about. For this reason, we have come to the conclusion today that it will not be possible to hold this conference in June,” Mr. Brahimi told reporters in Geneva following talks with senior United States, Russian and UN officials. “We will be continuing our consultations with Russia and the United States to see about windows of opportunity to hold the conference as soon as possible – hopefully, in July,” he said, adding that the three parties will meet again in the Swiss city on 25 June. Russian and US officials announced last month their intention to convene an international conference to find a political solution to the Syria crisis, which has claimed more than 70,000 lives since fighting between the Government and opposition forces seeking to oust President Bashar Al-Assad began in March 2011. The crisis has also left 6.8 million people in need, and sent over 1.5 million Syrians fleeing to neighbouring countries to seek refuge. “We all firmly agreed that a political solution to the crisis in Syria is the only solution possible… The catastrophe on the ground is alarming,” said Mr. Brahimi. “That tragedy has got to come to an end, for the sake of Syria and its people. He said that the parties meeting today have agreed that the ‘Geneva Conference on Syria’ will be held under the auspices of the UN Secretary-General, with Russia and the US playing an important role throughout the process. The goal of the conference, he added, will be to achieve a political solution to the conflict in Syria through a comprehensive agreement between the Government and the opposition for the full implementation of the Geneva communiqué of 30 June 2012.

Syria becomes a failed state- leads to power struggles, Al Qaeda rising and destroys Middle Eastern peace Edward P. Djerejian 5 Apr. 2013 .Is the Former U.S. Ambassador to Syria and to Israel and Founding Director of the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University. "Foreign Policy Magazine." Foreign Policy. N.p., Web. 06 July 2013. Without sustained, proactive U.S. leadership, Syria could emerge as a failed state that will assuredly bring about power struggles between various armed militants fighting along sectarian lines. The results of Syria collapsing into such a state at the heart of the Middle East, with an al Qaeda affiliate potentially exploiting the political and security vacuum, represent a threat to the international peace and security of the region. **BRAZIL CP

Text: The United States federal government should enter into prior binding consultation with the Federative Republic of Brazil [over the plan]

Consultation is key to US-Brazil relations Hakim, Peter. "Brazil and the U.S.: Remaking a Relationship." Inter-American Dialogue. N.p., 9 June 2011. Web. 7 July 2013. . It will certainly not be easy for Washington and Brasilia to build a more cooperative and trusting relationship. In the past few years, the two governments have openly clashed over many issues as Brazil vigorously pursued an increasingly ambitious international role. Despite a large reservoir of genuine good will, the situation could worsen in the coming period — regardless of how adroitly and carefully Dilma and her advisers manage Brazil’s foreign policy, or the care with which the Obama administration conducts U.S. diplomacy.¶ For the foreseeable future, it is almost inevitable that Brazil and the U.S. will continue to bump up against one another, both in the hemisphere and worldwide. Both nations are deeply engaged in global affairs, but pursue policies and agendas that reflect divergent interests, priorities and approaches. They will not always be able to find common ground or keep their disagreements in check. So in most respects, the U.S.-Brazil relationship will involve both conflict and cooperation — just like U.S. ties with other powerful nations. ¶ Brazil’s progressively more assertive role in Latin America has led to a variety of squabbles. It surprised and irritated Washington with its intense opposition to a new U.S.-Colombia security pact. By subsequently concluding its own, albeit far more modest, military accord with Washington Brazil demonstrated a welcome flexibility. But it left no doubt that it expected the United States to consult and get its agreement before embarking on any new security initiatives in South America — a position endorsed by every other nation on the continent.¶ The country also crossed swords with Washington in Honduras, where a military coup some two years ago produced a still-unresolved political crisis. Unlike the U.S. and many Latin American governments, Brasilia has refused to accept the results of the November 2009 Honduran presidential elections. That disagreement has caused a divisive standoff in hemispheric relations.¶ The U.S. and Brazil are on opposite sides of the Cuba issue, as well. Washington stands alone in its diplomatic and economic isolation of Havana, while every Latin American capital has normal relations with the island. Brazil and the U.S. also clashed in 2009 over the conditions under which the Cuban government could be readmitted to the Organization of American States. Consultations bolster overall US-Brazilian relations - key to trade liberalization, environmental protection, counter terrorism, and the global economy Public Papers of the Presidents, 6/23/03 The United States and Brazil resolve to create a closer and qualitatively stronger relationship between our two countries. It is time to chart a newly purposeful direction in our relationship, guided by a shared vision of freedom, democracy, peace, prosperity, and well- being for our peoples, in order to promote hemispheric and global cooperation. We are among the most populous democracies in the world. Forged from diverse cultures, proving that diversity is our strength. Continental in size and immigrant in origin, we share the fundamental belief that freedom, democracy, and social justice are universal aspirations, essential for peace and prosperity and unconstrained by either culture or level of economic development. Our commitment to human rights for all people in every nation is strong and unwavering. We agree that representative democracy and the rule of law are indispensable to building modern economies and political systems that promote growth, accountability, transparency, and stability, and encourage economic opportunity without favor or prejudice. Democracy is essential to sustainable development. In the same way, reducing inequality and improving social justice contribute to stability and international security. We affirm that countries should embrace policies that promote growth and social inclusion, which are the key to increasing incomes, improving standards of living, and ending poverty and hunger. We share the conviction that governments should work to empower their people through good governance, fighting corruption, ensuring personal security, encouraging enterprise, and providing all citizens access to high- quality education, adequate health, and nutritional care. We agree that free trade furthers prosperity and development, contributes to the promotion of entrepreneurial initiative and to the strengthening of the private sector, with positive social impact. We also agree that trade liberalization can contribute to dynamic growth, technological innovation, and to individual and collective advancement over the long term. We therefore reaffirm our commitment to fighting protectionism. We have built creative, entrepreneurial societies. Regionally as well as globally , we have important responsibilities in areas such as commerce, science and technology, energy, environmental protection, education, and health. The currents of commerce and culture that link our societies run strong and deep. Our partnership of shared values leads us to seek a natural partnership of shared endeavors. As two nations recognizing both the promise and desperate poverty of Africa, and the strong ties and African heritage of many of our citizens, we commit ourselves to working together for an African continent that lives in liberty, peace, and growing prosperity. We intend to pursue this goal through our diplomacy and the promotion of projects that reinforce economic, commercial, social, and cultural ties with the countries of Africa . Therefore, the United States and Brazil will engage in regular consultations, working together for prosperity, democratic governance, and peace in the hemisphere and beyond. Reaffirming our commitment to advance common values, we will continue to work together to protect and advance democracy, human rights, tolerance, religious freedom, free speech and independent media, economic opportunity, and the rule of law. We will cooperate on issues of mutual interest that contribute to the defense and security of the hemisphere, bolstering joint efforts to counter terrorism, narcotics trafficking and consumption, trafficking in persons, and other transnational criminal challenges to regional peace. Our strength lies in the ability of our people to shape their destiny and to realize their aspirations for a better life. That is why the United States and Brazil are and will remain allies in the cause of democracy. We will share our experience in nurturing and strengthening democratic institutions the world over, thereby fighting challenges to the democratic order from poverty, illiteracy, intolerance, and terrorism. Moreover, we recognize that successfully addressing the hemisphere's challenges requires collaborative and cooperative efforts and, to that end, we will work together to strengthen the Organization of American States, the bulwark of regional cooperation, including through implementation of the Inter-American Democratic Charter. We need to reinforce the U.N. system, especially by exploring ways to make the Security Council and other U.N. bodies more effective and more responsive to current international challenges and realities. We have much to learn from each country's unique experience in modernizing our economies; achieving advances in science, technology, and medicine; finding solutions to pressing environmental problems; addressing energy challenges and needs; and advancing quality education and expanding enrollments in primary education. We are committed to working together to find concrete ways to extend the benefits of these reforms to all our people. We will cooperate, including through direct contacts between the business communities of our countries, to advance U.S.-Brazilian economic, trade, and investment relations; and recognizing our responsibility as co-chairs of the negotiations, to successfully conclude the negotiations for a Free Trade Area of the Americas by January 2005. We will work together to preserve and promote stability and growth in the global economy. Opening trade and resisting protectionism are essential for meeting that challenge. We support an open, equitable, transparent, and rules-based multilateral trading system, and we will work together to strengthen it, especially by working for a successful completion of the WTO negotiations of the Doha Development Agenda by January 2005. Today, we pledge to deepen the U.S.-Brazilian partnership in mutually positive ways, always seizing opportunities to advance the diversified interests we have in common, always seeking to reconcile differences through dialogue and engagement. Our constructive partnership is not an end in itself, but a means to all these ends . It is reinforced by, inter alia, academic, cultural and commercial ties, and increasing kinship among our people. In this process of further enhancing our bilateral relations, we have decided to give special attention to the following areas: science and technology, energy, education, health, economic growth, and agriculture. As further indication of our close ties, U.S. and Brazilian advisors will consult often, maintaining a dialogue on these matters of mutual interest. We have also agreed on a framework for high-level consultations and joint working groups across the broad spectrum of areas in which we are determined to institutionalize our enhanced cooperation.

Iran Proliferation MOD Relations are key to stop Iranian prolif Hakim, Peter. "Brazil and the U.S.: Remaking a Relationship." Inter-American Dialogue. N.p., 9 June 2011. Web. 7 July 2013. . The most serious clashes between the U.S. and Brazil are likely to arise over global, not regional, issues. What has most exasperated Washington and unsettled bilateral relations in recent years is Brasilia’s close, supportive relationship with Iran, including strong and growing economic ties. U.S. officials were encouraged that President Rouseff swiftly changed Brazilian policy in one crucial area: Her government will no longer ignore or downplay Tehran’s repression, and she has instructed her United Nations ambassador to endorse an investigation of human rights abuses in Iran. However, it remains uncertain how Brasilia will deal with other U.S. concerns, such as Iran’s support of terrorist groups and its unrelenting threats toward Israel.

Iranian proliferation spills over and leads to Middle Eastern proliferation Levi, Michael. "Limiting Iranian Nuclear Activities." Council on Foreign Relations. N.p., n.d. Web. 6 July 2013. . Were Saudi Arabia to acquire nuclear weapons, the Middle East would count three nuclear-armed states, and perhaps more before long. It is unclear how such an n-player competition would unfold because most analyses of nuclear deterrence are based on the U.S.- Soviet rivalry during the Cold War. It seems likely, however, that the interaction among three or more nuclear-armed powers would be more prone to miscalculation and escalation than a bipolar competition. During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union only needed to concern themselves with an attack from the other.Multipolar systems are generally considered to be less stable than bipolar systems because coalitions can shift quickly, upsetting the balance of power and creating incentives for an attack. More important, emerging nuclear powers in the Middle East might not take the costly steps necessary to preserve regional stability and avoid a nuclear exchange. For nuclear-armed states, the bedrock of deterrence is the knowledge that each side has a secure second-strike capability, so that no state can launch an attack with the expectation that it can wipe out its opponents' forces and avoid a devastating retaliation. However, emerging nuclear powers might not invest in expensive but survivable capabilities such as hardened missile silos or submarinebased nuclear forces. Given this likely vulnerability, the close proximity of states in the Middle East, and the very short flight times of ballistic missiles in the region, any new nuclear powers might be compelled to "launch on warning" of an attack or even, during a crisis, to use their nuclear forces preemptively. Their governments might also delegate launch authority to lower-level commanders, heightening the possibility of miscalculation and escalation. Moreover, if early warning systems were not integrated into robust command-and-control systems, the risk of an unauthorized or accidental launch would increase further still. And without sophisticated early warning systems, a nuclear attack might be unattributable or attributed incorrectly. That is, assuming that the leadership of a targeted state survived a first strike, it might not be able to accurately determine which nation was responsible. And this uncertainty, when combined with the pressure to respond quickly,would create a significant risk that it would retaliate against the wrong party, potentially triggering a regional nuclear war. Consult Key Genuine consultation is essential over issues of mutual interest is key to long term US-Brazil relations – CP prevents a shift away from this framework. Peter Hakim Jan/Feb 04, (President of Inter-American Dialogue, Foreign Affairs) To sustain constructive ties, Washington must keep its expectations realistic. Some analysts and U.S. officials have advocated a far tighter relationship between the two countries, with more regular and structured collaboration . But Brazilians have traditionally preferred pragmatic and opportunistic cooperation with the United States on specific issues. Still somewhat distrustful of Washington, Brasília is wary of creating the expectation that it will quasi- automatically support U.S. positions, compromise its ability to set an independent course for itself, or diminish the diversity of its other international relations. Brazil, in other words, has little interest in developing a privileged relationship with the United States of the type Argentina once sought. That leaves Washington with having to earn Brasília's cooperation issue by issue, without presuming it will be granted. Still, the relationship has been remarkably stable and consistent over the years. The two countries have not been steady allies or continuing adversaries, but they have usually worked productively together. Today the United States can usually count on Brazil for an important measure of collaboration on most issues and can usually avoid its outright opposition on others. The Bush administration should continue its good start, bolstering friendly U.S.-Brazil relations. Lula's administration welcomed the White House's two invitations and U.S. recognition of Brazil's special role in South America. Washington must remain attentive to Brasília's interests. It would be good policy to systematically solicit Brazil's views on the full range of issues relevant to the hemisphere and take serious account of them. That will require Washington to pursue a less unilateral approach, particularly in South America, and be willing to accept compromises on its policies and programs. No U.S. administration yet has been able to do this on a sustained basis, and it may be particularly difficult for the Bush White House. Brasília's ambivalence about its regional and international roles complicates Washington's task. Brazilian politicians have long argued that Brazil is among the world's great powers, alongside the United States, Russia, China, and India. As a result, Brazil has insisted on playing a lead part in shaping regional politics, resisting U.S. attempts to dominate them. At the same time, it subscribes to a traditional understanding of state sovereignty and frowns on intervention in a state's domestic affairs even in the name of human rights and democratization. (Lula said on his trip to Cuba, "I don't comment on the internal policies of other countries.") That view has led Brazil almost viscerally to oppose the United States' activist agenda in the hemisphere and elsewhere. Although the United States cannot change Brazil's position, it can moderate it in specific circumstances.

Say Yes Will say yes: Plan on getting paid Rueters, 12

By Anthony Boadle¶ BRASILIA | Wed Jan 25, 2012 11:58am EST, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/25/us-brazil-cuba-idUSTRE80O1QX20120125

(Reuters) - Some forty years ago, Dilma Rousseff was a guerrilla fighter working clandestinely to bring a version of Cuban leader Fidel Castro's communist revolution to

Brazil.¶ How times change. When Rousseff makes her first visit to Cuba next week as Brazil's president, she'll have capitalism on her mind, specifically the building of a container terminal at the port of Mariel aimed at future trade with the United States when Washington one day lifts its 50-year-old embargo on Cuba.¶ The $800 million modernization of the natural harbor west of Havana is being done by Brazilian engineering firm Odebrecht with funding from Brazil's state development bank BNDES. It is part of a vast and growing constellation of Brazilian-run projects in Latin America, Africa and elsewhere that has paralleled Brazil's recent rise as an economic power.¶ The business-focused nature of Rousseff's Cuba trip highlights a shift in Brazil's foreign policy since she took office early last year, with trade trumping all other considerations.¶

WTO criticism of US ethanol subsidies all pushed by Brazil – of course they say yes Maggie Airriess. 7/15/08 (Brazzil. Airriess is a Research Fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, Proquest)

On June 16, following petitions from the Brazilian government, the World Trade Organization (WTO) condemned the U.S. for its agricultural subsidies that unfairly favor domestic producers. The WTO largely blamed Washington's practices for the world food crisis that may leave an additional 100 million people hungry by the end of 2008. The WTO criticized U.S. actions as "an attempt to disrespect international commercial regulation with subsidies that drastically reduced domestic prices and could have been seriously damaging for developing nations like Brazil." (New York Times). During the Food Summit, which was hosted by the UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), U.S. representatives argued in favor of their protectionist policies, claiming that biofuels are environmentally safer than petroleum, and also benefit farmers, entrepreneurs, and consumers.