BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE May 06Th, 2021 ISSN 2446-7014
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
BRAZILIAN NAVAL WAR COLLEGE BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE May 06th, 2021 ISSN 2446-7014 JOURNAL OF GEOPOLITICS AND OCEAN POLITICS YEAR 7 • Nº 138 The new British strategic plan and its repositioning in the Asia-Pacific region THIS AND A FURTHER 12 ARTICLES IN THIS EDITION BOLETIM RESEARCHERS OF THE CONJUNCTURE GEOCORRENTE ASSESSMENT GROUP Boletim Geocorrente is a fortnightly publication written by the Conjuncture Assessment Group (NAC), which is part SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA of the Department of Research and Post-Graduation (SPP) at Ariane Dinalli Francisco (Universität Osnabrück) the Naval War College (EGN). NAC studies the International Bruno Gonçalves (Ufrj) Conjuncture from a geopolitical framework, in order to supply Franco Napoleão A. de Alencastro Guimarães (Puc-Rio) the global demand for information, making it more accessible Isadora Jacques de Jesus (Ufrj) for the general public. Moreover, it seeks to intertwine society João Victor Marques Cardoso (Unirio) Vivian de Mattos Marciano (Uerj) into defense and security issues, and to disseminate updated knowledge of international conflicts and crisis to meet the Naval SOUTH AMERICA Staff's demands. Ana Laura Marçal Monsores (Uff) YEAR 7 • Nº 138 The research group responsible for this Boletim is Bruna Soares Corrêa de Souza (UniLaSalle) composed of members from different areas of expertise, whose Carlos Henrique Ferreira da Silva Júnior (Egn) multiple backgrounds and experiences provide a comprehensive Matheus Souza Galves Mendes (Egn) approach to the latest international issues. It seeks to analyse the Pedro Emiliano Kilson Ferreira (Univ. de Santiago) major themes, motivational factors and the main actors regarding NORTH & CENTRAL AMERICA the escalation of conflicts, ongoing crises and its outcomes. Ana Carolina Vaz Farias (Ufrj) Thus, this journal aims to publish short articles concerning Jéssica Pires Barbosa Barreto (Egn) current issues about ten macro-regions in the globe: South Rafael Esteves Gomes (Ufrj) America, North and Central America, Sub-Saharan Africa, Victor Cabral Ribeiro (Puc-Rio) Victor Eduardo Kalil Gaspar Filho (Egn) Middle East and North Africa, Europe, Russia and former USSR, South Asia, East Asia, Southeast Asia and Oceania, ARCTIC & ANTARCTIC Arctic and Antarctic. Furthermore, some editions feature the Ana Carolina Ferreira Lahr (Egn) "Special Topics" section. Gabriele Marina Molina Hernandez (Uff) Pedro Allemand Mancebo Silva (Puc-Rio) BRAZILIAN NAVAL WAR COLLEGE'S Raphaella da Silva Dias Costa (Ufrj) DIRECTOR Rear Admiral Silvio Luis dos Santos EUROPE Guilherme Francisco Pagliares de Carvalho (Uff) RESEARCH AND POST-GRADUATION Marina Autran Caldas Bonny (Ufrj) SUPERINTENDENT OF THE BRAZILIAN Melissa Rossi (Suffolk University) NAVAL WAR COLLEGE Nathália Soares de Lima do Vale (Uerj) Rear Admiral (Retd.) Marcio Magno de Farias Franco e Thaïs Abygaëlle Dedeo (Université de Paris 3) Silva Victor Magalhães Longo de Carvalho Motta (Ufrj) EDITORIAL BOARD EAST ASIA EDITOR-IN-CHIEF João Pedro Ribeiro Grilo Cuquejo (Ibmec) Captain (RETD) Leonardo Faria de Mattos (Egn) Luís Filipe de Souza Porto (Ufrj) EXECUTIVE EDITOR Marcelle Torres Alves Okuno (Ibmec) Captain-Liutenant Bruno de Seixas Carvalho (Egn) Maria Claudia Menezes Leal Nunes (Usp) Philipe Alexandre Junqueira (Uerj) SCIENTIFIC EDITOR Rodrigo Abreu de Barcellos Ribeiro (Ufrj) Captan (RETD) Francisco E. Alves de Almeida (Egn) Vinicius Guimarães Reis Gonçalves (Ufrj) ASSISTANT EDITORS MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA Jéssica Germano de Lima Silva (Egn) Adel Bakkour (Ufrj) Noele de Freitas Peigo (Facamp) Ana Luiza Colares Carneiro (Ufrj) Thayná Fernandes Alves Ribeiro (Uff) Dominique Marques de Souza (Ufrj) GRAPHIC DESIGN Isadora Novaes dos Santos bohrer (ufrj) Ana Carolina Vaz Farias (Ufrj) Pedro da Silva Albit Penedo (Ufrj) Bruno Gonçalves (Ufrj) Isadora Novaes dos Santos bohrer (Ufrj) RUSSIA & FORMER USSR José Gabriel de Melo Pires (Ufrj) TRANSLATION AND REVIEW Luiza Gomes Guitarrari (Ufrj) Rodrigo Oliveira Dutra Marcílio (Ufrj) Pedro Mendes Martins (Eceme) Pérsio Glória de Paula (Uff) PUBLICATION POLICIES AND PROCEDURES To publish in the Boletim, the author is required to be a researcher SOUTHEAST ASIA & OCEANIA of the Current Geopolitics Group of NAC and submit his article Maria Gabriela Veloso Camelo (Puc-Rio) containing a maximum of 400 words to the peer review assessment Matheus Bruno Ferreira Alves Pereira (Ufrj) process. Thayná Fernandes Alves Ribeiro (Uff) Vinícius de Almeida Costa (Egn) CONTACT Brazilian Naval War College – Research and Post-Graduation SOUTH ASIA Superintendency. Av. Pasteur, 480 - Praia Vermelha – Urca - Postal Code: 22290-255 Iasmin Gabriele Nascimento dos Santos (ufrj) - Rio de Janeiro/RJ - Brazil João Miguel Villas-Boas Barcellos (Ufrj) PHONE.: +55 (21) 2546-9394 | E-mail: geocorrentenac@gmail. Marina Soares Corrêa (Ufrj) com Rebeca Vitória Alves Leite (Egn) This and other editions of BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE, in SPECIAL TOPICS portuguese and english, can be found at the Brazilian Naval War Alessandra Dantas Brito (Egn) College Webpage and in our Google Drive Folder. Guilherme Novaes Silva Pinto (Ufrj) 2 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 138 • May | 2021 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE INDEX SOUTH AMERICA China and the United States: technological mismatch .........................................12 Conflict on the border between Colombia and Venezuela ......................................5 SOUTH ASIA South America and the Caribbean: maritime and environmental cooperation.......... as an instrument of regional cohesion ....................................................................6 India, Bangladesh and the Teesta River issue .....................................................13 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SOUTHEAST ASIA & OCEANIA Hydropolitics: tensions between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan on............................... Indonesian submarine support station ..................................................................14 the Blue Nile ...........................................................................................................7 ARTIC & ANTARTIC At a crossroads between India and China, the Madagascar dilemma ...................8 The Russian proposal for an extension of the rights to the resources...................... EUROPE in the Arctic ...........................................................................................................15 The new British strategic plan and its repositioning in the Asia-Pacific region .......9 SPECIAL TOPICS MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA Climate change and international reorganization: Leaders’ Summit ........................ Israel-Iran tensions: political-strategic situation ......................................................9 on Climate 2021 ...................................................................................................16 RUSSIA & FORMER-USSR Selected Articles & Defense News........................... 17 The constitutional reform of the Russian Federation - a Russia transition? .........10 Geocorrente Calendar............................................... 17 EAST ASIA References............................................................... 18 Chinese Foreign Policy for the Middle East ..........................................................11 Risk Maps................................................................. 19 TOP GLOBAL RISKS Disregarding the COVID-19 pandemic For more information on the criteria used, visit page 19. 3 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 138 • May | 2021 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE THE COUNTRIES WITH THE MOST CASES Data according to the "WHO COVID-19 Dashboard", published on May 06th, 2021. VACCINE MONITORING Sources: World Health Organization; The New York Times 4 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 138 • May | 2021 SOUTH AMERICA Conflict on the border between Colombia and Venezuela Victor Cabral he Venezuelan structural crisis has made it difficult for refuge in the Colombian city of Arauquita. On the Tfor President Nicolás Maduro to govern the country other hand, the people who stayed report serious human due to the lack of money to maintain the operation of the rights violations by the Venezuelan forces. According to state. The power vacuum has allowed guerrillas to take a Human Rights Watch’s report, the military has been over the strategic territorial areas, like the borders. To accused of arresting and judging civilians to protect the avoid the permanent loss of control, Maduro establishes guerrillas, with some of them being tortured and killed. alliances with some of these guerrillas to maintain a state Colombia comprehends the border attacks as an presence in these communities. However, the president intimidation attempt of Maduro of going against the found armed groups that do not accept the terms of his country one day, especially for protecting other guerrillas government's agreements and negotiations, leading to in its territory. Nevertheless, Venezuela believes that clashes with his security forces. Therefore, the main Colombia and the United States sponsor the FARC issues of the conflict with one of these guerrillas on the dissident guerrillas to create social chaos in the country border with Colombia, which has been going on since so that foreign humanitarian intervention overthrow its March 21st, 2021, are noteworthy. government. Meanwhile, more than 6,000 Venezuelans Colombia and Venezuela share a land border of more have fled to Colombia, and about 10 Venezuelan military than 2,219 km, which was vulnerable to the actions of personnel have been killed. Therefore,