BRAZILIAN NAVAL WAR COLLEGE BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE May 06th, 2021 ISSN 2446-7014
JOURNAL OF GEOPOLITICS AND OCEAN POLITICS YEAR 7 • Nº 138
The new British strategic plan and its repositioning in the Asia-Pacific region This and a further 12 articles in this edition BOLETIM RESEARCHERS OF THE CONJUNCTURE GEOCORRENTE ASSESSMENT GROUP Boletim Geocorrente is a fortnightly publication written by the Conjuncture Assessment Group (NAC), which is part SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA of the Department of Research and Post-Graduation (SPP) at Ariane Dinalli Francisco (Universität Osnabrück) the Naval War College (EGN). NAC studies the International Bruno Gonçalves (Ufrj) Conjuncture from a geopolitical framework, in order to supply Franco Napoleão A. de Alencastro Guimarães (Puc-Rio) the global demand for information, making it more accessible Isadora Jacques de Jesus (Ufrj) for the general public. Moreover, it seeks to intertwine society João Victor Marques Cardoso (Unirio) Vivian de Mattos Marciano (Uerj) into defense and security issues, and to disseminate updated knowledge of international conflicts and crisis to meet the Naval SOUTH AMERICA Staff's demands. Ana Laura Marçal Monsores (Uff) YEAR 7 • Nº 138 The research group responsible for this Boletim is Bruna Soares Corrêa de Souza (UniLaSalle) composed of members from different areas of expertise, whose Carlos Henrique Ferreira da Silva Júnior (Egn) multiple backgrounds and experiences provide a comprehensive Matheus Souza Galves Mendes (Egn) approach to the latest international issues. It seeks to analyse the Pedro Emiliano Kilson Ferreira (Univ. de Santiago) major themes, motivational factors and the main actors regarding NORTH & CENTRAL AMERICA the escalation of conflicts, ongoing crises and its outcomes. Ana Carolina Vaz Farias (Ufrj) Thus, this journal aims to publish short articles concerning Jéssica Pires Barbosa Barreto (Egn) current issues about ten macro-regions in the globe: South Rafael Esteves Gomes (Ufrj) America, North and Central America, Sub-Saharan Africa, Victor Cabral Ribeiro (Puc-Rio) Victor Eduardo Kalil Gaspar Filho (Egn) Middle East and North Africa, Europe, Russia and former USSR, South Asia, East Asia, Southeast Asia and Oceania, ARCTIC & ANTARCTIC Arctic and Antarctic. Furthermore, some editions feature the Ana Carolina Ferreira Lahr (Egn) "Special Topics" section. Gabriele Marina Molina Hernandez (Uff) Pedro Allemand Mancebo Silva (Puc-Rio) BRAZILIAN NAVAL WAR COLLEGE'S Raphaella da Silva Dias Costa (Ufrj) DIRECTOR Rear Admiral Silvio Luis dos Santos EUROPE Guilherme Francisco Pagliares de Carvalho (Uff) RESEARCH AND POST-GRADUATION Marina Autran Caldas Bonny (Ufrj) SUPERINTENDENT OF THE BRAZILIAN Melissa Rossi (Suffolk University) NAVAL WAR COLLEGE Nathália Soares de Lima do Vale (Uerj) Rear Admiral (Retd.) Marcio Magno de Farias Franco e Thaïs Abygaëlle Dedeo (Université de Paris 3) Silva Victor Magalhães Longo de Carvalho Motta (Ufrj) EDITORIAL BOARD EAST ASIA EDITOR-IN-CHIEF João Pedro Ribeiro Grilo Cuquejo (Ibmec) Captain (RETD) Leonardo Faria de Mattos (Egn) Luís Filipe de Souza Porto (Ufrj) EXECUTIVE EDITOR Marcelle Torres Alves Okuno (Ibmec) Captain-Liutenant Bruno de Seixas Carvalho (Egn) Maria Claudia Menezes Leal Nunes (Usp) Philipe Alexandre Junqueira (Uerj) SCIENTIFIC EDITOR Rodrigo Abreu de Barcellos Ribeiro (Ufrj) Captan (RETD) Francisco E. Alves de Almeida (Egn) Vinicius Guimarães Reis Gonçalves (Ufrj) ASSISTANT EDITORS MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA Jéssica Germano de Lima Silva (Egn) Adel Bakkour (Ufrj) Noele de Freitas Peigo (Facamp) Ana Luiza Colares Carneiro (Ufrj) Thayná Fernandes Alves Ribeiro (Uff) Dominique Marques de Souza (Ufrj) GRAPHIC DESIGN Isadora Novaes dos Santos bohrer (ufrj) Ana Carolina Vaz Farias (Ufrj) Pedro da Silva Albit Penedo (Ufrj) Bruno Gonçalves (Ufrj) Isadora Novaes dos Santos bohrer (Ufrj) RUSSIA & FORMER USSR José Gabriel de Melo Pires (Ufrj) TRANSLATION AND REVIEW Luiza Gomes Guitarrari (Ufrj) Rodrigo Oliveira Dutra Marcílio (Ufrj) Pedro Mendes Martins (Eceme) Pérsio Glória de Paula (Uff) PUBLICATION POLICIES AND PROCEDURES To publish in the Boletim, the author is required to be a researcher SOUTHEAST ASIA & OCEANIA of the Current Geopolitics Group of NAC and submit his article Maria Gabriela Veloso Camelo (Puc-Rio) containing a maximum of 400 words to the peer review assessment Matheus Bruno Ferreira Alves Pereira (Ufrj) process. Thayná Fernandes Alves Ribeiro (Uff) Vinícius de Almeida Costa (Egn) CONTACT Brazilian Naval War College – Research and Post-Graduation SOUTH ASIA Superintendency. Av. Pasteur, 480 - Praia Vermelha – Urca - Postal Code: 22290-255 Iasmin Gabriele Nascimento dos Santos (ufrj) - Rio de Janeiro/RJ - Brazil João Miguel Villas-Boas Barcellos (Ufrj) PHONE.: +55 (21) 2546-9394 | E-mail: geocorrentenac@gmail. Marina Soares Corrêa (Ufrj) com Rebeca Vitória Alves Leite (Egn) This and other editions of BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE, in SPECIAL TOPICS portuguese and english, can be found at the Brazilian Naval War Alessandra Dantas Brito (Egn) College Webpage and in our Google Drive Folder. Guilherme Novaes Silva Pinto (Ufrj) 2 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 138 • May | 2021 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE INDEX
SOUTH AMERICA China and the United States: technological mismatch...... 12 Conflict on the border between Colombia and Venezuela...... 5 SOUTH ASIA South America and the Caribbean: maritime and environmental cooperation...... as an instrument of regional cohesion...... 6 India, Bangladesh and the Teesta River issue...... 13
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SOUTHEAST ASIA & OCEANIA Hydropolitics: tensions between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan on...... Indonesian submarine support station...... 14 the Blue Nile...... 7 ARTIC & ANTARTIC At a crossroads between India and China, the Madagascar dilemma...... 8 The Russian proposal for an extension of the rights to the resources...... EUROPE in the Arctic...... 15 The new British strategic plan and its repositioning in the Asia-Pacific region...... 9 SPECIAL TOPICS MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA Climate change and international reorganization: Leaders’ Summit ...... Israel-Iran tensions: political-strategic situation...... 9 on Climate 2021...... 16
RUSSIA & FORMER-USSR Selected Articles & Defense News...... 17 The constitutional reform of the Russian Federation - a Russia transition?...... 10 Geocorrente Calendar...... 17 EAST ASIA References...... 18 Chinese Foreign Policy for the Middle East...... 11 Risk Maps...... 19
TOP GLOBAL RISKS Disregarding the COVID-19 pandemic
For more information on the criteria used, visit page 19.
3 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 138 • May | 2021 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE THE COUNTRIES WITH THE MOST CASES Data according to the "WHO COVID-19 Dashboard", published on May 06th, 2021.
VACCINE MONITORING
Sources: World Health Organization; The New York Times 4 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 138 • May | 2021 SOUTH AMERICA Conflict on the border between Colombia and Venezuela Victor Cabral he Venezuelan structural crisis has made it difficult for refuge in the Colombian city of Arauquita. On the Tfor President Nicolás Maduro to govern the country other hand, the people who stayed report serious human due to the lack of money to maintain the operation of the rights violations by the Venezuelan forces. According to state. The power vacuum has allowed guerrillas to take a Human Rights Watch’s report, the military has been over the strategic territorial areas, like the borders. To accused of arresting and judging civilians to protect the avoid the permanent loss of control, Maduro establishes guerrillas, with some of them being tortured and killed. alliances with some of these guerrillas to maintain a state Colombia comprehends the border attacks as an presence in these communities. However, the president intimidation attempt of Maduro of going against the found armed groups that do not accept the terms of his country one day, especially for protecting other guerrillas government's agreements and negotiations, leading to in its territory. Nevertheless, Venezuela believes that clashes with his security forces. Therefore, the main Colombia and the United States sponsor the FARC issues of the conflict with one of these guerrillas on the dissident guerrillas to create social chaos in the country border with Colombia, which has been going on since so that foreign humanitarian intervention overthrow its March 21st, 2021, are noteworthy. government. Meanwhile, more than 6,000 Venezuelans Colombia and Venezuela share a land border of more have fled to Colombia, and about 10 Venezuelan military than 2,219 km, which was vulnerable to the actions of personnel have been killed. Therefore, it is necessary to the Frente Décimo Martín Villa. This Colombian FARC disarm these guerrillas and mediate the conflict, either dissident group dominated the town of La Victoria in through international UN negotiations or through South Apure until the Venezuelan Army started attacking it on American multilateral mechanisms, to avoid foreign March 21st. Due to ground fighting and bombing, the geopolitical interference in the region. civilian population crossed the Arauca River looking
Source: Bussines Insider
DOI 10.21544/2446-7014.n138.p05. 5 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 138 • May | 2021 South America and the Caribbean: maritime and environmental cooperation as an instrument of regional cohesion Bruna Soares Corrêa de Souza he environmental preservation matter has become a scientific solutions for sustainable development by Trelevant geopolitical issue to promote multilateral connecting people and the ocean. Brazil and Costa Rica cooperation. The discussion about the sustainable are among GoLitter's main partner countries, playing a exploitation of natural resources and the need to contain leading role in deepening regional cooperation. global warming is recurrent in UN multilateral forums South America and the Caribbean promoted their and regional meetings. However, regional cooperation first environmental treaty, the Escazú Agreement, in among South American and Caribbean countries has not 2018. However, the initiative faces difficulties, as only been effective in their intergovernmental organizations, some countries ratified the agreement by the deadline. such as Mercosur and the OAS, demonstrating the lack of The primary goal was to guarantee public access to cohesion among states. Moreover, the region has natural information and decisions in environmental processes resources, making crucial its participation in decisions and greater security for professionals working in defense about environmental preservation. Therefore, how can the of the environment, since South America has the highest emergence of the ecological agenda contribute to regional rates of violence against environmental defenders, cooperation in South America and the Caribbean? according to a 2020 report by the NGO Global Witness. The International Maritime Organization (IMO), a UN Chile, one of the creators of the agreement alongside Costa agency specialized in maritime safety and preservation, Rica, is now its most prominent opponent. The country alongside the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) claims that the progressive and specific obligations on of the United Nations and thirty other countries, lead the the agreement are challenging to implement, and they GoLitter project. This initiative aims at the sustainable allow international interference. development, prevention, and reduction of marine litter An agreement on the signing of the treaty and the actual produced by the maritime and port industry sectors of joint involvement of South American and the Caribbean emerging economies. Among the participating countries countries in the environmental matter would strengthen are Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, the region and protect it from external interference. Panama and Peru. The initiative composes the UN's Moreover, it would bring greater geopolitical cohesion, "Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development" allowing the expansion of regional cooperation and for 2030, whose mission is to catalyze transformative increasing its sustainable development.
Source: ECO 21 DOI 10.21544/2446-7014.n138.p05. DOI 10.21544/2446-7014.n138.p06. 6 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 138 • May | 2021 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Hydropolitics: tensions between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan on the Blue Nile
Vivian Mattos ver the last two decades, Ethiopia has maintained desert, the construction of a plant like GERD may affect Oits position among the world's fastest-growing the water supply and start a desertification process in economies, with an average GDP growth of 9% per year. strategic areas of the other countries, like the Nile Delta, This growth is based on three factors: attraction of foreign which could affect access to water for approximately 140 direct investment, industrialization, and the application million people. of capital in infrastructure sectors. Ethiopia's economic Over the past 10 years, the three states have attempted choice goes alongside its project to transform the to negotiate an agreement led by the African Union, which country into a regional power in the political, energy, and failed. Nevertheless, in April 2021, Egyptian President environmental sectors. Therefore, since 2011, Ethiopia Al-Sisi stated that if the Ethiopian plant starts operating has been building a hydroelectric dam on the Blue Nile, without a binding agreement between the countries, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which there would be “inconceivable instability in the region”. will be the largest on the continent. Thus, it is essential Meanwhile, the Ethiopian government announced that to analyze the context after constructing the power plant regardless of an agreement, the hydroelectric plant will for the region. be inaugurated and that it will not accept the intervention After its construction, the plant will have a production of non-African states in the mediation. capacity of 6,500 MW, extending its economic frontier Moreover, in the stalemate between Ethiopia's pursuit and allowing the sale of energy to neighboring countries, of energy sovereignty and the water security of other considering the energy surplus. However, despite the countries, the three African countries should jointly, or benefits that the plant will bring to Ethiopia's continuing through multilateral forums, decide on the governance development, the project arises tensions between Ethiopia, of shared water resources, with no interference on Sudan and Egypt due to the geographical position of the projects of each country. It is noteworthy that an the hydroelectric plant. The Blue Nile supplies part of escalation of tensions would not be positive for Ethiopia, Sudan and 95% of Egypt. Considering that the regions considering its purpose of consolidating itself as a that have their water supply linked to the river are mostly diplomatic and Pan-Africanist power on the continent.
Source: The Economist
DOI 10.21544/2446-7014.n138.p07. 7 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 138 • May | 2021 At a crossroads between India and China, the Madagascar dilemma SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Franco Alencastro he overlapping zones of influence in Africa and Asia Madagascar, the largest island on the African shore of Twere among the contributing factors of the rivalry the Indian Ocean, seems like a challenging obstacle to intensification between European powers at the turn of achieving this new order. the twentieth century. Today, it is possible to state that Strategically positioned at a choke point — the a similar phenomenon happens in the Indian Ocean, the Mozambique Channel — the Republic of Madagascar context of a dispute between India and China. In this has tightened its ties with China in recent years. In 2015, region, India seeks to expand its radius of action. Still, China replaced France as its largest trading partner. this movement has contributed to frictions with the Madagascar has also received Chinese investments: predominance that China looks forward to exerting over in 2019, the China Nonferrous Metal Mining Group the African continent. The intersection between these two (CNMC) company obtained the rights to mine rare earth zones of influence, the African coast of the Indian Ocean, reserves (Rare Earth Elements - RREs) in Madagascar. is where this stalemate is more intense, and the island Thus, rare earth production increased in the island of Madagascar represents one of the significant points of country, which is now Africa's largest producer. These contention. Therefore, it is essential to analyze its place elements, which have a wide range of applications in in this hegemonic dispute. high-tech and defense sectors, are now mainly produced On February 4th, 2021, India hosted the Indian Ocean in China, which tallies 62% of world production. By Region Defence Ministers' Conclave, which included obtaining the exploration rights in Madagascar, China representatives of the defense ministries of all countries ensures its control over this market while strengthening in the region. A rules-based maritime order and the its connections with the island country. But between upholding of freedom of navigation, with India playing a China's geostrategy and India's maritime closeness, the leading role in both aspects, were on the agenda. However, country will probably have to make a choice.
Source: Science Direct
DOI 10.21544/2446-7014.n138.p08. DOI 10.21544/2446-7014.n138.p07. 8 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 138 • May | 2021 EUROPE The new British strategic plan and its repositioning in the Asia-Pacific region Guilherme Carvalho
arlier this year, the Integrated Review was published, in the defense industry of the neighboring countries, Ea document describing London's new strategic but rather in topics such as infrastructure and transport, vision for its Foreign and Defense Policy. It realistically through projects like the Belt and Road. details UK's current capabilities, placing it as a "middle In the Integrated Review, the promotion of the power," and proposes a comprehensive approach to defense industry, military diplomacy, and international how London should act in the international system in a trade go alongside recent press reports, like the sending post-Brexit reality. The document discusses topics from of the brand-new aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth to climate change to nuclear deterrence and proposes more Southeast Asia, the construction of patrol vessels for the strengthened action in the Asia-Pacific, mainly due to Thai Navy, and the current entry into the Trans-Pacific China. Therefore, how will the UK fulfill its Integrated Partnership Treaty, one of the world's largest free trade Review objectives by inserting itself more in the zones. Moreover, the tradition, high-end technology, and Asia-Pacific without disrupting the relationship with reliability of British equipment put them in a prominent Beijing? position in the international defense market, which still China is prudently mentioned in the document and mistrusts Chinese products. currently represents an ambiguous situation for the Therefore, it is notable that London is focusing on its British government. Despite being one of the UK's largest relations with Asia without seeking to escalate conflicts trading partners, the Chinese expansion in Southeast Asia with China. Thus, the new strategies for delivering and is something Downing Street does not desire. However, encouraging defense solutions for the Asia-Pacific, recent movements in British trade policy indicate alongside a stable relationship with Beijing, considered that investments in the Defense industry could be an a "systemic challenge" by the Integrated Review, may be interesting way to establish London as a strategic trade the path for further growth of the British economy and partner for countries in the Asia-Pacific. This is a great influence post-Brexit. idea because China, so far, does not intensively invest DOI 10.21544/2446-7014.n138.p09.
MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA Israel-Iran tensions: political-strategic situation
Pedro Albit and Marina Corrêa srael and Iran seek nuclear development and could not always take the responsibility of the attacks against Icooperate in this sector; however, they have troubled Iran. relations based on disbelief and competition, sometimes The Israel-Iran conflict is not recent, but the situation involving other extra-regional actors. Israel has gained has worsened since March. On April 10th, the Iranian support in establishing diplomatic relations with government announced that the country was advancing countries in the Arab world due to mutual anti-Iran in the process of enriching uranium in the Natanz field sentiment. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze how (Boletim 122). However, the next day, that field was recent events can increase geopolitical tensions between blacked out. The blackout would have affected the the two nations. complex's electricity grid, causing about nine months Iran is an Islamic republic with disagreements of delay in the projects. For Iranians, this was "nuclear with countries in its surroundings due to religion and terrorism" caused by Israel, as the incident occurred geopolitical issues because of its actions, which are after a meeting with the United States. In response to the considered expansionist, especially concerning nuclear attack, Hassan Rohani, the Iranian President, stated that capacity. The country has suffered several sanctions in the country would increase uranium enrichment to 60% the last decades by the United States, especially by the — closer to the 90% limit, which would allow military project of uranium enrichment. On the other hand, Iran is use. In addition to the nuclear situation, the proximity against the resumption of the Nuclear Agreement between between the countries is a worrying issue, considering the U.S. and Iran and, consequently, seeks to isolate the the recent missile launches and attacks on military bases, Islamic country — is worth mentioning that Israel does especially from Israel towards Syria, an Iranian ally. »
9 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 138 • May | 2021 It is noteworthy that Tel-Aviv underwent its fourth Israeli national security, this electoral capital in the name EUROPE legislative election in two years, showing the difficulty of the country's unity and security may be desired. On the of stabilizing domestic politics. Thus, at a moment when other hand, such events highlight the risk of an eventual the Iranian nuclear agreement is renegotiated, given the escalation towards a direct and declared confrontation, incitements and propaganda against Iran as a threat to where both seem to be ready for armed conflict.
Source: Spokesman
DOI 10.21544/2446-7014.n138.p09-10.
MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA RUSSIA & FORMER-USSR The constitutional reform of the Russian Federation - a Russia transition? Pedro Martins ecently, Russia has approved constitutional reform the international context. With the definition of this Rproposals that comprise several political issues and background, the political longevity and popularity can be seen as mechanisms for a transition of power. of the ruler are notable. However, the recent changes First, it is essential to mention that Vladimir Putin first indicate another episode in the course of reforms within became president in 1999, after the resignation of Boris the Russian government. Since 2017, it has changed Yeltsin. With his election the following year, Putin has governors of Russian provinces by appointing names remained in power in the Russian Federation ever since, with no political experience, besides changing the prime alternating between the positions of president and prime minister's cabinet and the prime minister himself, a minister. So how do the recent constitutional reforms position currently occupied by Mikhail Mishutin. affect this power structure in operation for 21 years? Additionally, according to the constitutional reforms, Thus, it is essential to understand the origins of one person cannot serve as President for more than two contemporary Russia. Since 1992, the country has terms. Until now, someone could be the President for undergone a brutal transition to capitalist democracy, two terms of six years each. However, the new reforms a first-time event in the country's history. Until his permit the incumbent to run for two more terms at the resignation, Yeltsin (1992-1999) dealt with two time of the amendment's passage, which would allow conflicts in Chechnya (1991-1996 and 1999-2000) and Putin to stay in power until 2036. an economic crisis. Since his inauguration in 2000, Alongside these measures, mechanisms that would President Putin has sought to stabilize the country allow for the resolution of disagreements with the » and regain some of its influence as a major power in future president were created, namely: the change in »
10 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 138 • May | 2021 the composition of the Federation Council of Russia to of power, as declared by Russian political analyst Tatiana senators, representatives from the constituent entities Stanovaya. of the Russian Federation, members appointed by the Therefore, Russia’s constitutional reforms are president of the Russian Federation, and the former considered a stage in the Russian Federation's transition presidents. This Federation Council will be responsible to the post-Putin era. However, it should be perceived for authorizing the dismissal of judges and appointing that they were designed to guarantee enough control by ministers associated with national security. It is notable the current President, limiting potential authoritarian what has been called an "insurance policy" against abuse tendencies. DOI 10.21544/2446-7014.n138.p10-11. EAST ASIA Chinese Foreign Policy for the Middle East Filipe Porto and Isadora Novaes Bohrer ith its huge production capacity, China is configured Both signed a USD 400 billion deal, reinforcing their Was a world factory, while the Middle East is its antagonistic cooperation with Washington. China will fuel tank and a catalyst for the interconnection of world invest in Iran for the next 25 years in exchange for oil. trade. Thus, as China and the Middle East become more The agreement also provides for security cooperation connected, it must be considered where these ties can and an intelligence partnership. Besides Iran, Chinese take them on their respective development paths. In this Chancellor Wang Yi also visited Turkey, Saudi Arabia, sense, how does the establishment of strong relations the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Oman and spoke with countries in the Middle East, many of which are by phone with ministers from Iraq and Jordan. Wang also allies of the U.S., guide Chinese Foreign Policy? proposed to mediate the debates on the Israel-Palestine China's oil demand has almost tripled over the past issue in a broad program to reach regional powers. two decades, representing an average of one-third of the The entire Middle East is becoming a region where growth in global oil demand each year. In this regard, the China largely expands its activity and influence. For Chinese “Arab Policy Paper” in 2016 indicated that the Beijing, this territory represents an opportunity and a country would strengthen its relations with the countries necessity, and the Chinese extend their ties beyond oil. of the Arab region, subsequently with the “Declaration The commodity will continue to be essential to match of Action on China-Arab Cooperation” in 2018. More the expanding consumption of the Asian country. recently, in 2021, China signed an agreement with Iran, a However, the growing North American disinterest in the country with broad geostrategic importance. Struggling region opens space for new projects and alliances not with U.S. sanctions, Iran needs partners to sell its oil, yet explored or limited by Washington's interference, while China, also affected by sanctions, wants to increase creating opportunities for China. its political and economic influence in the Middle East.
Source: ECFR
DOI 10.21544/2446-7014.n138.p11.
11 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 138 • May | 2021 China and the United States: technological mismatch
Maria Claudia Nunes hina's technological development over the last decade (SIA) to discuss intellectual property and trade policies. Chas been impressive. In the previous two Communist These Chinese signals worry the United States and Party five-year plans, technology and the creation of an its allies. This year, a report by the National Security innovation environment had a prominent space. Yet, Commission on Artificial Intelligence (NSCAI) showed right now, China threatens the global leadership of the that the Americans have weak technological leadership, United States and its allies in key sectors, as we see in the especially in AI, and that China has already surpassed competition of the 5G rollout and the rapid development them in some subfields of research. This concern about of its artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities. Would this Beijing's technological rise is restated by other actors technological competition and the semiconductor crisis such as the UK: in a speech made by Jeremy Fleming, make room for a technological disassociation between Director of the Government Communications China and the United States and an eventual global Headquarters (GCHQ), the fear about Chinese technological-ideological divide? domination over the operation of certain global systems Semiconductors, known as microchips, present great was highlighted. In response to this fear, Biden announced strategic sensitivity, something China knows (Boletim plans to invest USD 180 billion in "future industries", 135). In 2020, China bought about 143 billion dollars quantum computing, and semiconductor production, worth of chips, but only 5.8% of the semiconductors were components considered crucial to AI development. domestically manufactured. Thus, it is possible to notice The strengthening of the dispute is inevitable, but a growing government investment in this industry, around with the semiconductor crisis, it is possible to see the USD 35 billion, besides a specific mention in the 14th acceleration of a technological decoupling between the Five-Year Plan approved in March 2021. This two poles. These developed infrastructures will become officialization of technological independence incompatible for security reasons, and consequently, goes alongside the announcement of the Chinese countries without the necessary technological Semiconductor Industry Association (CSIA) opening a development will have to choose an ideological alignment partnership with the Semiconductor Industry Association to obtain such a structure.
Source: Semi Engineering
DOI 10.21544/2446-7014.n138.p12. DOI 10.21544/2446-7014.n138.p11.
12 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 138 • May | 2021 SOUTH ASIA India, Bangladesh and the Teesta River issue Iasmin Gabriele Nascimento ater resources are fundamental for the growth Diplomat, despite sharing the waters of several rivers, Wand development of a nation, and sharing them there are no recent agreements between the two nations geographically with another state may be a complex that address the issue. point in their bilateral relations. One of Bangladesh's The Indian government's omission on the issue has major rivers is the Teesta River, which originates in made room for China. Despite having India as one of the Eastern Himalayas and flows through India and its key strategic partners, the Bangladesh government Bangladesh. The waters of the Tista River and its sharing has started to consider a proposal from the Chinese between the two South Asian nations is probably the most government to create a manageable channel using the sensitive geopolitical issue in the relationship between Teesta River. According to The Third Pole news portal, the countries and has been a matter of dispute since the the Bangladeshi government would bear 15% of the total Indian independence from the British. So, what are the project cost, while the Chinese government would pay possible geopolitical consequences of the absence of a the other 85%, with the total cost being around USD 130 water agreement for India? million. There is also concern about the drop in water It is convenient for India to have good relations levels resulting from direct human action and global with Bangladesh when it comes to sharing the river, but warming. Accepting the Chinese proposal could magnify the negotiations have made no progress for years. For the hardships caused to the Bengalis who depend on the about a decade, Bangladesh and India have been trying river for survival. to establish a water-sharing agreement, which was Therefore, for India, overlooking the Teesta River delayed due to a decision of the Indian government. For issue and not reaching an agreement would allow even Bangladeshis, resolving this issue is crucial: the river's more Beijing to proceed with its regional plans. Thus, waters are a source of income and livelihood for millions New Delhi could lose some of its influence in its neighbor of its inhabitants. According to the Daily Star and The as the largest regional partner.
Source: The Sikkim Chronicle
DOI 10.21544/2446-7014.n138.p13. 13 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 138 • May | 2021 SOUTHEAST ASIA & OCEANIA Indonesian submarine support station Gabriela Veloso ndonesia seeks to increase its defense industry to Undoubtedly, the COVID-19 pandemic has delayed Iguarantee greater independence in the military field Defense plans. Still, the Chief of Staff of the Indonesian and in other sectors, such as technology. Alongside Navy, Yudo Margono, believes that, on the other hand, it improving this industry, the regional power has also is not necessary to wait for a big budget to start, but rather sought new diplomatic and commercial relations beyond to plan and consolidate the projects according to selected Southeast Asia and the conventional United States and priorities. This statement was made at the beginning China, considering the recent dialogues with France and of April, during a ceremony that marked the starting Japan (Boletim 137). In early April, one of these plans for of the base construction. With the sad disaster of the international projection was officially put into practice: Cakra-class submarine KRI Nanggala (402), which constructing the submarine support station in the South sank with 53 people on the north of Bali in late April, China Sea (SCS). However, in a pandemic context, some the Indonesian Navy will probably invest even more in people question the meaning and relevance of such a the base under construction and in the modernization construction. programs of its Fleet, despite the complex pandemic Planned since 2016, the station is located in Pulau situation underway. Natuna Besar along the Lampa Strait and will be controlled The start of the base construction represents the by the Indonesian Navy's First Fleet once completed. Indonesian government's current desire to strengthen its According to local officials, the plan is to make the Ranai strategic surroundings. As much as they have no claim Naval Base the main base of the Indonesian Navy. As a to the SCS territories, they recognize that the waters, way of attaining this goal, it must be modernized so that especially north of Natuna, are attractive to many it offers rebase, replenishment, repair, rest, and recreation countries. Thus, the conflict of interests between them (5R). could directly or indirectly impact their state at any time.
Source: Seputarkepri
DOI 10.21544/2446-7014.n138.p14. DOI 10.21544/2446-7014.n138.p13. 14 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 138 • May | 2021 ARCTIC & ANTARCTIC SPECIAL TOPICS The Russian proposal for an extension of the rights to the resources in the Arctic Raphaella Costa he geopolitical tensions in the Arctic are motivated, Moscow’s claim relates exclusively to the sovereign Tamong other factors, by disputes over maritime rights to marine soil and subsoil resources, which do not territories. Russia's interest in the Arctic Ocean has been include those located in the water column, in the ocean's evident since 2007 when two submersibles carried out surface, or in the corresponding airspace. an expedition to 4,300 meters below the ocean surface to In economic and strategic terms, the Arctic hosts plant a Russian flag made of titanium at the North Pole. historical disputes between China, the United States, and The exploit also collected samples of the soil to prove Russia for the right to their sovereignty, emphasizing the similarity with the Russian geological formation. the importance of considering the so-called geopolitics Therefore, from a territorial perspective, how does of resources in the region. Greenland is a well-known Moscow impose itself in the far North of the Planet to setting of Chinese-U.S. disputes to conquer abundant ensure its Arctic sovereignty? reserves of rare earth minerals. On the other hand, Russia In April 2021, it was released the Russian formal takes part in the maritime territories’ disputes, where the claim to the Commission on the Limits of the Continental limits imposed are frequently revised, intensifying the Shelf (CLCS) in which the country demanded an international tensions. expansion of approximately 705,000 km² of its right to Therefore, besides the political and military disputes, exploit resources in the Arctic, overlapping Canadian Russia is imposing itself economically in the Arctic to and Greenlanders requirements of extending their own conquer raw materials and establish its sovereignty in the continental shelves. If the investigation into the natural far North of the Planet. The claim of the new limits of the extension is successful, exclusive rights will be granted continental shelf underscores the geopolitical importance to the Russians, not only to the exploitation of abundant that resource disputes have in the Arctic to enhance how oil and gas reserves but also to the exclusive access to Russians position themselves regionally vis-à-vis other deposits of rocky minerals, including cobalt, nickel, actors. and manganese, essential for modern economies. Thus,
Source: IBRU
DOI 10.21544/2446-7014.n138.p15. 15 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 138 • May | 2021 ARCTIC & ANTARCTIC SPECIAL TOPICS
Climate change and international reorganization: Leaders’ Summit on Climate 2021 Guilherme Novaes tudies indicate that the future of humanity is threatened Besides the urgency to guarantee the survival of Sby climate change, and integrated global actions are future generations, the context presents geopolitical and needed to contain its progress. In this sense, the Climate economic opportunities. China perceived it and has been Summit, which was held on April 22nd and 23rd, 2021, strongly investing in the sector, leading investments in increased optimism with ambitious announcements of renewable energy and seeking to insert itself in emerging intensified reduction of carbon emissions by several markets with technologies aligned to this objective. countries. The meeting also served as a way for the Moreover, the transition will force the diversification United States (U.S.), under the leadership of Joe Biden, of exports of economies dependent on the sale of fossil to demonstrate its commitment to having an influential fuels and is strategic to achieve energy security, like position on the issue. What are the consequences of the the European Union’s case, which aims to reduce its "green policy" for global geopolitics? dependence on Russian natural gas and its pipelines The next few years will be environmentally decisive throughout its territory. for the planet. The Paris Agreement, signed in 2015 by Climate change brings risks such as acidification and 195 countries, pursues to limit the global temperature rise rising sea levels, desertification, and new pandemics. A to, at most, 1.5 degrees concerning preindustrial levels. new leadership contest is currently happening regarding Scientists estimate that the temperature increase has sustainable technologies and the control over the "greener" already been close to 1.1°C, so a joint effort is necessary future narrative. This competition may be positive to to achieve this goal, which already looks challenging to accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy, and, attain. This context places the energy transition matter in at the Climate Summit, it was possible to see some the center of investment and public policy debates. The commitment from most states. The UN's Climate Change topic has been a priority in the European Union for more Conference, COP 26, to be held in Scotland in November than a decade and is currently among the priorities on the 2021, will reveal if such declarations are supported by U.S. public investment agenda, involving a substantial possible agreements on the commitments presented. part of the actions of the USD 2.3 trillion package announced by Biden in late March.
Fonte: Earth.org
DOI 10.21544/2446-7014.n138.p16. DOI 10.21544/2446-7014.n138.p15. 16 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 138 • May | 2021 SELECTED ARTICLES & DEFENSE NEWS REFERENCES
► COVID-19 impacts and adaptations in Asia and Africa’s aquatic food value chains SCIENCEDIRECT, Ben Belton et al. ► What to Look for in the FY2022 Defense Budget Request DEFENSE360, Todd Harrison, Seamus P. Daniels, Mark Cancian, Tom Karako and Wes Rumbaugh ► India’s Trump Card Against China GEOPOLITICAL FUTURES, Phillip Orchard ► What we know about maritime illicit trades STABLE SEAS, Lydelle Joubert ► The World Reacts to Biden’s First 100 days CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT, Rosa Balfour et al.
GEOCORRENTE CALENDAR MAY JUNE
Parliamentary Saint Petersburg Elections in International 6 Scotland Economic Forum 2-5
Municipal IISS Shangri- Elections and La Dialogue Constitutional - The 19th Conventional in 15-16 4-5 Asia Security Chile Summit • Legislative (Singapore) Arctic Council Elections in Ministerial Mexico 19-20 Meeting (video- • Parliamentary 6 conference) Elections in Iraq U.S. Africa G20 Global Command’s Health Summit 21-23 7-18 African Lion (Rome, Italy) Exercise (Mo- rocco) 74 th World G7 Meeting Health (Cornwall, 24 Assembly (video- United 11-13 conference) States) The Global African Space Development Exploration Bank Annual Conference Meeting and 14-18 2021 – the African 24-28 GLEX (Saint Development Petersburg, Fund (Accra, Russia) Ghana) Presidential Presidential Elections in Elections in 26 Syria Iran18
17 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 138 • May | 2021 REFERENCES RISK MAP
• Conflict on the border between Colombia and Venezuela East for alliance and influence. South China Morning Post, Hong EBUS, B. Amistades peligrosas: las guerrillas colombianas en la frontera Kong, Mar. 25th 2021. Accessed on: Apr. 07th 2021. venezolana. Crisis Group, New York, Apr. 28th 2021. Accessed on: Apr. 29th 2021. • China and the United States: technological mismatch TORRADO, S. Human Rights Watch denuncia “abusos aberrantes” del Technology wars are becoming the new trade wars. Financial Times, Ejército venezolano en la frontera con Colombia. El País, Bogotá, Apr. 26th London, Apr. 22nd 2021. Accessed on: Apr. 29th 2021. 2021. Accessed on: Apr. 28th 2021. China semiconductor trade association establishes work group with U.S. counterpart. Reuters, Xangai, Mar. 11th 2021. Accessed on: Apr. 29th 2021. • South America and the Caribbean: maritime and environmental cooperation as an instrument of regional • India, Bangladesh and the Teesta River issue cohesion BANERJI, A. India Must Settle the Teesta River Dispute With Bangladesh for GÚZMAN, L. Why Chile promoted the Escazú Agreement then rejected it. Lasting Gains. The Diplomat, Washington, Apr. 09th 2021. Accessed on: Diálogo Chino, London Nov. 26th 2020. Accessed on: May. 01st 2021. Apr. 29th 2021. Lanzan Iniciativa mundial para acabar con la basura marina y limpiar los ROY, P. Best of 2020: Bangladesh turns to China to transform Teesta river. oceanos. Notícias ONU, [s.l], Apr. 08th 2021. Accessed on: May. 01st The Third Pole, London, Dec. 30th 2020. Accessed on: Apr. 29th 2021. 2021. • Indonesian submarine support station • Hydropolitics: tensions between Ethiopia, Egypt and RIDZWAN, R. Indonesia begins construction of submarine base in South Sudan on the Blue Nile China Sea. Janes, Coulsdon, Apr. 07th 2021. Accessed on: Apr. 29th 2021. Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia talks over Nile dam fail. Al Jazeera, Doha, Apr. AO, T. Indonesia’s Naval Expansion: A New Dimension to the Existing 06th 2021. Accessed on: Apr. 10th 2021. Security Impasse in the Region. Indian Council of World Affairs, MUTAMBO, A. Ethiopia, Egypt disagreement frustrates African search for New Delhi, Nov. 02nd 2017. Accessed on: Apr. 29th 2021. Nile solution. The East African, Nairobi, Apr. 08th 2021. Accessed on: Apr. 15th 2021. • The Russian proposal for an extension of the rights to the resources in the Arctic • At a crossroads between India and China, the Madagascar BREUM, M. Russia extends its claim to the Arctic Ocean seabed. Arctic dilemma Today, Anchorage, Apr. 04th 2021. Accessed on: Apr. 22nd 2021. SINGAPURA. Ministério da Defesa. Address by Minister for Defence OVERFIELD, C. An Off-the-Shelf Guide to Extended Continental Shelves Dr Ng Eng Hen for the Indian Ocean Region Defence Ministers' Conclave. and the Arctic. Lawfare Blog, Washington, Apr. 21st 2021. Accessed on: Accessed on: em Mar. 15th 2021. Apr. 22nd 2021. ESTADOS UNIDOS DA AMÉRICA. USGS. Rare Earths Data Sheet - Mineral Commodity Summaries 2020, [s.l], Jan. 2020. Accessed on: Mar. • Climate change and international reorganization: 15th 2021. Leaders’ Summit on Climate 2021 The Leader’s Summit on Climate 2021: A Summary. EARTH.ORG, Hong • The new British strategic plan and its repositioning in Kong, Apr. 26th 2021. Accessed on: Apr. 28th 2021. the Asia-Pacific region TIMMERMANS, F.; BORRELL, J. The Geopolitics of Climate Change. GREVATT, J. UK Integrated Review affirms ‘tilt' to Asia-Pacific. Janes, Project Syndicate, Praga, Apr. 26th 2021. Accessed on: Apr. 29th 2021. Coulsdon, Mar. 17th 2021. Accessed on: Mar. 01st 2021. SCOTT, R. UK Defence Command Paper: New headmark set for Royal Cover: HMS QUEEN ELIZABETH (R08). Navy. Janes, Coulsdon, Mar. 22nd 2021. Acesso em Mar. 01st 2021. By: Royal Navy.
• Israel-Iran tensions: political-strategic situation The initial maps (pages 03 and 04) of the Boletim were created with VHORA, A. Israel is the arabs world's new soft power. Foreign Policy, Mapchart and follow the guidelines of Creative Commons. Washington, Mar. 08th 2021. Accessed on: Apr. 15th 2021. Israeli forces carried out strike on Iran spy ship in Red Sea, NY Times reports. The Times of Israel, Jerusalem, Apr. 07th 2021. Accessed on: Apr. 15th 2021.
• The constitutional reform of the Russian Federation - a Russia transition? LAW on amendment to Russian Federation Constitution. Kremlin, Moscou, Apr. 14th 2021. Accessed on: Apr. 14th 2021. STANOVAYA, T. Russia Prepares for New Tandemocracy. Carnegie Endownment Russia, Moscou, Jan. 20th 2020. Accessed on: Apr. 14th 2021.
• Chinese Foreign Policy for the Middle East TIEZZI, S. China’s Foreign Minister Heads to the Middle East. The Diplomat, Washington, Mar. 25th 2021. Accessed on: Apr. 07th 2021. JIANGTAO, S. As China faces sanctions from the West, it looks to the Middle
18 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 138 • May | 2021 RISK MAP
he map entitled “Top Global Risks” on the 3 rd page which may become red or orange, depending on the Tof this Boletim was prepared by the Conjuncture conflict's aggravation. Assessment Group (NAC) members of the Brazilian Due to the increase in the number of cases Naval War College (EGN). The appearance of the (infected, hospitalized and dead) of COVID-19, there international phenomena on the map considers their was an adaptation in the analysis of the scenario. relevance to Brazil, analyzed through criteria, namely In this way, a separate map was drawn up, with the the number of Brazilians living in the region, direct countries with the highest number of infected people, or indirect influence on the Brazilian economy, and according to the latest WHO bulletin released until their impact on the Brazilian Strategic Surroundings. the publishing date of this bulletin. Thus, the countries Besides, the interests of the United Nations Security were painted in red or orange according to the number Council permanent members will be considered. of total cases. After selecting the phenomena, they are categorized The analyzes are redone at each Boletim edition, as high risk (red) or medium risk (orange), following aiming to reassess and update the demarcated regions parameters that reflect the severity of the risk, and the color used in each one. Therefore, the main namely: number of victims, the relevance of the phenomena are always observed, distributed at actors involved, impact on the global economy, and high and medium risk. Below are links to the risks the possibility of tensions escalation. The countries indicated on the map: painted in gray represent conflicts under analysis,
► HIGH RISK:
• YEMEN — Civil war and humanitarian crisis: Yemen’s Houthi militants conduct bomb-laden drone assault toward Saudi frontier air base. MENAFN, May 03rd 2021. Accessed on: May 03rd 2021.
• VENEZUELA — Structural crisis: Un general explica por qué la población en Apure se convierte en informante de la guerrilla: “La Fuerza Armada es la institución menos querida. Infobae, May 03rd 2021. Accessed on: May 03rd 2021.
• MOZAMBIQUE — Conflict between government and insurgent forces: Mozambique: Govt to invest more in troubled Cabo Delgado region. Africa News, Apr. 28th 2021. Accessed on: May 03rd 2021.
• MYANMAR — Military coup: Myanmar conflict brings new Cold War to ASEAN’s door. Nikkei Asia, May 03rd 2021. Accessed on: May 03rd 2021.
► MEDIUM RISK:
• GULF OF GUINEA — Conjunctural maritime insecurity: Nigeria and Cameroon link up to fight Gulf of Guinea piracy. Trade Winds, Apr. 26th 2021. Accessed on: May 03rd 2021.
• LEBANON — Structural crisis: On HM directives, Oman sends relief to Lebanon. Times of Oman, May 03rd 2021. Accessed on: May 03rd 2021.
• SOMÁLIA — Instabilidade eleitoral: UN chief welcomes return to electoral agreement in Somalia, United Nations News, May 02nd 2021. Accessed on: May 03rd 2021.
• COLOMBIA — Border crisis: Amistades peligrosas: las guerrillas colombianas en la frontera venezolana. International Crisis Group, Apr. 28th 2021. Accessed on: May 03rd 2021.
• ETHIOPIA — Conflict between government and insurgent forces: Ethiopia to designate TPLF, OLF- Shene as ‘terror’ groups. Al Jazeera, May 01st 2021. Accessed on: May 03rd 2021.
• SOUTH AND EAST CHINA SEA, HONG KONG & TAIWAN — Chinese expansion in these regions: China says its newest carrier group conducts exercise in South China Sea. The Japan Times, May 03rd 2021. Accessed on: May 03rd 2021.
19 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 138 • May | 2021 • NIGER — Escalation of terrorist activity in the region: Sixteen soldiers killed in western Niger ambush. Al Jazeera, May. 03rd 2021. Accessed on: May 03rd 2021.
• SYRIA — Tensions in the South: Syrian government, Kurdish forces end dispute in Qamishli. Al Monitor, Apr. 30th 2021. Accessed on: May 03rd 2021.
• UKRAINE — Russia-Ukraine cross-border tensions: Russia holds Black Sea drills amid Ukraine tensions. DW, Apr. 27th 2021. Accessed on: May 03rd 2021.
• NIGERIA — Insurgent attacks: Nigeria Jihadists Attack Two Army Bases, 8 Killed. The Defense Post, May. 03rd 2021. Accessed on: May 03rd 2021.
• CHAD — Structural crisis: Chad military council names transitional government. Al Jazeera, May. 02nd 2021. Accessed on: May 03rd 2021.
• EL SALVADOR — Political crisis: Political clash erupts in El Salvador as Congress votes out judges. Reuters, May 02nd 2021. Accessed on: May. 03rd 2021.
► MONITORING:
• AFGHANISTAN — Regional instability: Afghanistan: car bomb kills at least 21 as US prepares to withdraw troops. The Guardian, May 01st 2021. Accessed on: May 03rd 2021.
• BELARUS — Political crisis and tensions with the European bloc: The soft power of big business in a former Soviet republic. New Europe, May 03rd 2021. Accessed on: May 03rd 2021.
• BOLÍVIA — Crise político-jurídica: El Parlamento Europeo califica de “presa política" a la expresidenta boliviana Jeanine Áñez. El País, Apr. 29th 2021. Accessed on: May 03rd 2021.
• THE CAUCASUS — Regional instability: 1. BORDER BETWEEN AZERBAIJAN AND ARMENIA – Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh: Russian military in Armenia reinforces areas near Azeri border - agencies. Reuters, May 03rd 2021. Accessed on: May 03rd 2021. 2. GEORGIA — Opposition protests: Georgian Democracy Stumbles Onward After Parliament Deal. Foreign Policy, Apr. 26th 2021. Accessed on: May 03rd 2021.
• HAITI — Institutional crisis: EEUU respalda las elecciones en Haití pero no el referéndum. France 24, Apr. 30th 2021. Accessed on: May 03rd 2021.
• NORTHERN IRELAND — Protests against the Brexit agreement: Northern Ireland secretary to meet Coveney for talks in Dublin. The Irish Times, May 03rd 2021. Accessed on: May 03rd 2021.
• LYBIA — Ceasefire: UN Security Council discusses concerns over spread of Libya's foreign fighters. Al-Monitor, May 03rd 2021. Accessed on: May 03rd 2021.
• CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC — Conflict between government and insurgent forces: Central African troops and Russian mercenaries accused of abuses in anti-rebel offensive. The New Humanitarian, Apr. 29th 2021. Accessed on: May 03rd 2021.
• TAJIKISTAN AND KYRGYZTAN — Border dispute: Kyrgyzstan & Tajikistan agree complete cessation of hostilities after border flare-up prompted by dispute over access to water. RT, May 01st 2021. Accessed on: May 03rd 2021.
• PAKISTAN — Escalation of violent protests: Explained: Why France has asked its citizens to leave Pakistan. The Indian Express, Apr. 22nd 2021. Accessed on: May 03rd 2021.
• EASTERN MEDITERRANENAN — Tensions between Greece and Turkey and the occupation of Cyprus: Turkey doesn´t accept international law over eastern Mediterranean, Greece´s FM tells Euronews. EuroNews, Apr. 22nd 2021. Accessed on: May 03rd 2021.
20 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • N. 138 • May | 2021