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The President's Agenda: Domestic Policy Choice from Kennedy to Reagan

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The President's Agenda: Domestic Policy Choice from Kennedy to Reagan THE PRESIDENT’S AGENDA: POSITION-TAKING, LEGISLATIVE SUPPORT, AND THE PERSISTENCE OF TIME DISSERTATION Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By William D. Anderson, M.A. ***** The Ohio State University 2005 Dissertation Committee: Approved by Professor Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier, Adviser Professor Kathleen McGraw Professor Herbert Weisberg Adviser Political Science Graduate Program Copyright by William D. Anderson 2005 ABSTRACT The president’s agenda and Congress’s support for the president’s programs are key drivers in American public policy and electoral politics. The study of presidential- legislative relations, however, lacks a broad and rigorous treatment of the normal legislative process, from initial presidential position taking on votes before the House to final veto override votes cast by Congress. This dissertation broadly examines two stages of the normal legislative process, presidential position-taking and House support for the president’s positions, using a data set consisting of more than 3,200 House votes representing the first terms of the Carter through Clinton administrations. The dissertation suggests that three temporal contexts— regime time; political, or intra administration time; and policymaking or discrete time— prominently shape the politics of presidential position taking and legislative support for the president. My analysis then employs a series of uniquely constructed variables to account for the personal and external context within which the president legislates and attempts to persuade members of the House. By doing so, this dissertation tests the degree to which the legislative or executive branch dominates the policy process. Drawing from a data set that treats presidential position-taking—and subsequent legislative action—as discrete decisions and using a series of binary cross-sectional probit models, the dissertation finds strong evidence suggesting that the waxing and ii waning of the president’s political capital over regime and political time is among the most critical factors to consider when examining legislative-executive relations. These findings call into question past analyses of presidential-congressional relationships that fail to account for the dynamic nature of presidential and/or legislative dominance of the policy process. The dissertation concludes by discussing directions for subsequent research. iii Dedicated to Angela + 1 iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I wish to thank my adviser, Jan Box-Steffensmeier, for her interminable patience, enthusiasm, and belief in me and this dissertation. I also must thank Herb Weisberg and Kathleen McGraw, who were willing to stay with this project and its author. I thank John Kessel for his guidance throughout my graduate tenure at Ohio State and for his stylistic and thematic feedback. All scholars should be so lucky as to encounter one John Kessel during their careers. I am grateful to Jon Morris, whose prodding and encouragement drove me to complete this dissertation, if only to avoid having to explain to him why it was not yet finished. I wish to thank Fran Moore, Milton Downs, Annette Roy Benbow, and my colleagues in Washington, DC, whose flexibility and willingness to stand behind my academic work made this dissertation possible. I also would like to thank Randy Low for her exceptional editorial assistance and Retta Semones for her tireless logistics help. Perhaps most importantly, I must thank my wife, Angela, my parents, Bill & Jean Anderson, and the Meyer family for believing that I had potential and helping me realize it through this dissertation. This dissertation was supported by a National Science Foundation Doctoral Dissertation Improvement Grant, Award Number SES-0518963. v VITA October 18, 1974..........................Born—Huron, South Dakota 1997.............................................B.A. Political Science, University of Nebraska 2000.............................................M.A. Political Science, The Ohio State University 1997-2001....................................Graduate Teaching and Research Assistant, The Ohio State University PUBLICATIONS 1. Anderson, William D., Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier, and Valeria Sinclair- Chapman. 2003. “The Keys to Legislative Success in the US House of Representatives.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 28(3): 357-86. 2. Meinke, Scott R. and William D. Anderson. 2001. “Influencing from Impaired Administrations: Presidents, White House Scandals, and Legislative Leadership.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 26(4): 639-59. FIELDS OF STUDY Major Field: Political Science vi TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract....................................................................................................................................ii Dedication ...............................................................................................................................iv Acknowledgments ....................................................................................................................v Vita..........................................................................................................................................vi List of Tables...........................................................................................................................ix List of Figures ..........................................................................................................................x Chapters Page 1 Introduction: Relations Between the President and Congress 1.1 Preface..................................................................................................................1 1.2 Who Dominates ....................................................................................................7 1.3 Fixed vs. Malleable: Presidents’ Obstacles and Opportunities..............................18 1.4 Malleable Factors: Seizing the Initiative and Building Momentum ......................22 1.5 Influencing Individual Members of Congress ......................................................32 1.6 Conclusion: A Tandem Perspective on Presidential-Congressional Relations.......38 2 The President and Congress in Time 2.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................41 2.2 The Persistence of Time: Shaping Executive-Legislative Relations......................43 2.3 The Second Theoretical Construct: Executive-Legislative Relations as Stages.....74 2.4 Conclusion..........................................................................................................82 3 Presidential Position-Taking in Congress 3.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................84 3.2 Analytic Approach..............................................................................................88 3.3 Data and Descriptives .........................................................................................89 3.4 Organizing Theoretical Concepts and Variable Operationalization.....................105 3.5 Results and Discussion......................................................................................121 3.6 Conclusion........................................................................................................141 vii 4 Legislative Support for the President 4.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................153 4.2 Analytic Approach and Expectations.................................................................154 4.3 Organizing Theoretical Concepts: Time, See What’s Become of Me .................169 4.4 Results and Discussion......................................................................................186 4.5 Conclusion........................................................................................................202 5 Conclusions and Future Research: The President and Congress in Time 5.1 Who Dominates: The President and Congress in the Modern Era.......................215 5.2 Malleable and Fixed Factors: Shaping the Policy Process ..................................216 5.3 Over Time Relations Between Congress and the President ................................221 5.4 Expanding the Research: Examining the Modern Presidency.............................227 5.5 Conclusion........................................................................................................235 Appendix A Chapter 3 Supplementary Tables ..................................................................237 Bibliography ........................................................................................................................243 viii LIST OF TABLES Table Page 3.1 Presidential Position-Taking by Year..................................................................... 143 3.2 Presidential Position-Taking by Policy Vote Type ................................................. 145 3.3 Predicting Presidential Position-Taking in the U.S. House ..................................... 150 3.4 Presidential Position-Taking in the U.S. House: First Differences .......................... 151 3.5 Presidential Position-Taking in the U.S. House: By President ................................ 152 4.1 Percentage of the U.S. House Supporting the President’s Position,......................... 205 1977-1996 4.2 U.S. House Support for the President, By Policy Type..........................................
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