Economic Impact Analysis of Delayed Military Base Reuse in California
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Economic & Planning Systems Real Estate Economics Regional Economics Public Finance Land Use Policy WHITE PAPER ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS OF DELAYED MILITARY BASE REUSE IN CALIFORNIA Prepared by: Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. January 2007 Update EPS #17002 B E R K E L E Y S A C R A M E N T O D E N V E R 2501 Ninth St., Suite 200 Phone: 510-841-9190 Phone: 916-649-8010 Phone: 303-623-3557 Berkeley, CA 94710-2515 Fax: 510-841-9208 Fax: 916-649-2070 Fax: 303-623-9049 www.epsys.com TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY OF FINDINGS...........................................................1 Summary of Findings...............................................................................................1 II. ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS OF DELAYED REUSE ..................................................7 Economic Impact Analysis.......................................................................................8 Economic Development Impacts.......................................................................9 Fiscal Impacts....................................................................................................10 III. REFERENCES .............................................................................................................12 APPENDICES Appendix A: Economic Impact Analysis of Alameda Naval Air Station Appendix B: Economic Impact Analysis of Fort Ord Military Installation Appendix C: Economic Impact Analysis of Hunter’s Point Naval Shipyard Appendix D: Economic Impact Analysis of Naval Station Treasure Island Appendix E: Economic Impact Analysis of George Air Force Base Appendix F: Economic Impact Analysis of McClellan Air Force Base LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES Figure 1: California Major Military Base Closures..........................................................2 Table 1: Major Closure Decisions from Base Closure Rounds in 1988, 1991, 1993, 1995 and 2005 ...........................................................................................3 Table 2: Summary of Statewide Economic Impacts......................................................5 I. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY OF FINDINGS Economic & Planning Systems (EPS) these closed military bases in California was retained to evaluate the impacts of and estimates the economic impacts on delays in the reuse of closed military the California economy of delayed bases on the California economy. This redevelopment and reuse. report has been updated from the original February 2005 version to reflect major changes in military base disposition and reuse activity. While specific assumptions and actual annual results will vary with economic cycles, this report provides a long‐term indication and an estimate of impacts associated with delayed military closures. Former Hunter’s Point Naval Shipyard The State of California has experienced more base closures than any other state SUMMARY OF FINDINGS in the country under the Base Realignment and Closures Act (BRAC) 1. The 25 major bases closed in of 1988, 1991, 1993, 1995, and 2005. The California over the last 18 years Department of Defense (DOD) closed 25 consisted of 86,000 acres of land, major military bases in California under and resulted in a total loss of the various rounds of BRAC with three approximately 46,700 civilian jobs additional bases scheduled to close and 82,600 military personnel (see during the next several years. The Table 1). The base closures also closures represent one‐third of the resulted in secondary economic California military base total and impacts on local communities approximately one‐fourth of the total including a loss of business activity, U.S. closures. These base closures have retail spending and tax revenues. resulted in significant civilian and The successful reuse of these bases military job losses and loss of economic presents one of the greatest urban productivity to the State. Figure 1 redevelopment and economic depicts a map of all major base closures development challenges faced by in California. California today. The closed bases are currently at various stages in the For many reasons, a number of closed reuse process. bases have not been redeveloped in accordance with the reuse goals of the 2. There are 32,200 acres of major local communities. In some cases, the closed military bases that remain to DOD has yet to convey portions of the be conveyed in California. bases to the relevant Local Although interim uses and long‐ Redevelopment Authorities (LRAs). term lease opportunities have been This report documents the status of the found for some of the unconveyed property transfer and redevelopment of 1 P:\17000s\17002Base\Report\17002rpt.doc Figure 1: California Major Military Base Closures Map_Num Facility Location 01 George Air Force Base Victorville 02 Norton Air Force Base San Bernadino 03 Fort Ord Marina 04 Hunter's Point Navel Facility San Francisco 05 Naval Electronic Systems Engineering San Diego 06 Mather Air Force Base Sacramento 07 Long Beach Naval Complex Long Beach 08 Naval Air Station Moffett Field Sunnyvale 09 Presidio of San Francisco San Francisco 10 Sacramento Army Depot Sacramento 11 Oakland Naval Supply Center Oakland 12 Castle Air Force Base Atwater 13 Oakland Army Base Oakland 14 Hamilton Army Air Field Novato 15 McClellan Air Force Base Sacramento 16 Oak Knoll Naval Hospital Oakland 17 Mare Island Naval Complex Vallejo 18 San Diego Training Center San Diego 19 Alameda Naval Complex Alameda 20 Treasure Island Naval Complex San Francisco 21 Pt. Molate Naval Fuel Depot Richmond 1515 22 Marine Corps Air Station El Toro Irvine 1010 23 Marine Corps Air Station Tustin Tustin 2121 0606 1414 1717 24 Ontario Intl Airport AGS Ontario 2020 25 Concord Naval Weapon Station Concord 20201313 2525 1111 0909 1616 1212 0404 1919 1212 0808 0303 0101 2424 0707 0202 2222 2323 2323 1818 0505 Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 2 P:\14062base\maps\mapinfo\fig_01.wor Table 1 Major Closure Decisions From Base Closure Rounds 1988, 1991, 1993, 1995, and 2005 Economic Impacts of Delayed Military Base Reuse in California; EPS #17002 Year Total Acreage Acreage Civilian Military Closed Location Name Type Acreage Disposed (1) to Dispose Jobs Lost Jobs Lost 1 1988 Victorville (San George Air Force Base Air Force 5,062 3,297 1,765 506 4,852 Bernardino Co.) 2 1988 San Bernardino Norton Air Force Base Air Force 2,221 2,163 58 2,133 4,520 3 1991 Marina Fort Ord (2) Army 27,848 15,032 12,816 2,835 13,619 4 1991 San Francisco Hunter's Point Naval Station (3) Navy 494 75 419 93 4,132 5 1991 San Diego Naval Electronic Systems Air Force 3 3 0 619 6 Engineering Center (NESEC) 6 1993 Sacramento Mather Air Force Base Air Force 5,716 1,525 4,191 1,012 1,988 7 1994 Long Beach Naval Station Long Beach (4) Navy 1,498 1,459 39 6,716 9,782 8 1994 Sunnyvale Moffett Field Naval Air Station Navy 3,097 3,097 0 633 3,359 9 1994 San Francisco Presidio Army 1,480 1,480 0 3,150 2,140 10 1995 Sacramento Sacramento Army Depot Army 485 485 0 3,164 334 11 1995 Oakland Fleet Industrial Supply Center Navy 1,089 1,048 41 276 140 12 1995 Atwater (Merced) Castle Air Force Base Air Force 2,777 2,777 0 1,149 5,239 13 1995 Oakland Oakland Army Base Army 425 425 0 1,749 0 14 1995 Novato Hamilton Army Air Field Army 1,672 1,672 0 3 26 15 1995 Sacramento McClellan Air Force Base Air Force 3,452 387 3,065 8,828 2,757 16 1996 Oakland Oak Knoll Naval Hospital Navy 183 183 0 809 1,472 17 1996 Vallejo Mare Island Naval Shipyard Navy 5,292 3,982 1,309 7,567 1,963 18 1997 San Diego Naval Training Center Navy 541 490 51 402 5,186 19 1997 Alameda Naval Air Station (5) Navy 2,676 80 2,596 3,228 10,962 20 1997 San Francisco Naval Station Treasure Island Navy 455 0 455 454 637 21 1998 Richmond Pt. Molate Naval Fuel Depot (6) Navy 413 372 41 17 86 22 1999 Irvine El Toro Marine Corps Air Station Navy 4,687 4,606 81 979 5,689 23 1999 Tustin Marine Corps Air Station Navy 1,602 1,453 149 348 3,757 2001 Ontario (L.A. Area) Ontario International Airport Air Air Force 12 12 0 n/a n/a 24 Guard Station 25 2005 Concord Naval Weapons Station Navy 12,800 5,170 5,170 n/a n/a TOTAL 85,980 51,273 32,246 46,670 82,646 2010 Riverbank Riverbank Army Ammunition Plant Army 173 0 173 146 89 2011 Long Beach USARC Long Beach Army 5 0 5 5 5 2011 Sunnyvale Onizuka AFS Army 140 0 140 171 107 TOTAL (6) 318 0 318 322 201 (1) This number represents the total number of acres disposed to all eligible agencies, including other federal agencies. (2) 811 acres have been retained by the Army. (3) 494 represents the usable number of acres at Hunter's Point Naval Shipyard; hundreds of acres are submerged and unusable. (4) Includes Long Beach Naval Shipyard. (5) Includes Naval Aviation Depot, Alameda. (6) Includes major bases only. Sources: Civilian Job Losses from GAO. Military Bases: Status of Prior Base Realignment and Closure Rounds. Dec 1998 (unless otherwise noted) Military Job Losses from California Governor's Office of Planning and Research. California Military Base Closures: Current Status of Reuse Efforts. Dec 1994 (unless otherwise noted) Report of the California Military Base Reuse Task Force to Governor Pete Wilson, A Strategic Response to Base Reuse Opportunities. Jan 1994. (Map) Department of Defense. Report Required by Section 2912 of the Defense Base Closure and Realignment Act of 1990, March 2004. Air Force Acreage Information from Gary Kuwabara, Air Force Real Property Agency. Fort Ord Information from www.fortordcleanup.com, 1/13/07. Navy Information from Web site www.navfac.navy.mil/brc/cf-bin/aboutus/acres.cfm. Navy Facilities Engineering Command Base Realignment and Closure; Disposed With Acres. Military Job Losses also from Office of Economic Adjustment. BRAC Commission 1995 Estimate of Jobs Gains/ Losses. Interviews with the City officials. Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.1/30/2007 3 P:\17000s\17002Base\Model\basedata_2007 White Paper Economic Impact Analysis of Delayed Military Base Reuse in California January 29, 2007 property, many of the bases are still California based on their reuse far from realizing their ultimate potential at buildout.