THINK TANK REVIEW JUNE 2021 Council Library ISSUE 90
Council of the European Union General Secretariat
THINK TANK REVIEW JUNE 2021 Council Library ISSUE 90
This Think Tank Review* covers articles and reports published in May relating to different political and policy topics.
Looking ahead to a post-pandemic situation, the think tanks covered in this edition consider the impact of Covid-19 on the EU and beyond, important lessons learned and the role the EU can now play in ensuring economic as well as sustainable and equitable recovery. Several papers examine the costs and benefits of different rates of vaccination, how to safeguard against new variants and the role of the EU as one of the co-founders and first funder of COVAX, the international solidarity mechanism.
Reflecting on the consequences of Covid-19 and the lessons learned, specific topics include: - the changing priorities and challenges faced by the EU with the pandemic as a driver for a green and digital Europe; - connecting different parts of the health and social care systems; - asymmetric effects on employment and on lower-skilled workers or EU transport workers; - restrictions on the freedom of movement and the proper functioning of the Schengen area; - education systems and the youth sector; - temporary fiscal measures and sovereign debt and financing; - conflicts in Africa.
EU policy areas
The articles look at the progress on the Commission's six priorities against the backdrop of the pandemic, the role of the Conference on the Future of Europe, the shift to right-wing majorities in many national governments, the need for clear and responsible European leadership and how foreign money is used to undermine democracy in the EU.
Some papers also analyse the impacts of Covid-19 on specific areas of policy, such as agriculture, the news media sector, and social issues such as homelessness. Others look at how to make European industrial policy work, the framework for defining and accessing the Recovery and Resilience Plans, the ECB strategy and other possible ways of returning to sustainable growth in Europe, balancing economic need with societal demand for more inclusive growth.
In the area of environmental policy, articles report on the climate governance systems in Europe, identify the challenges and policy recommendations for the implementation of the European Green Deal and consider the external dimensions of the Green Deal, including Emissions Trading Systems. Others look at how the EU's resources could be mobilised to support its climate ambitions, how area-based conservation can be a proactive tool for
* This collection of abstracts and links was compiled by the Council Library of the General Secretariat of the EU Council for information purposes only. The content links are the sole responsibility of their authors. Publications linked from this review do not represent the positions, policies or opinions of the Council of the EU or the European Council. delivering Sustainable Development Goals and the dynamics in the EP on major issues relating to climate legislation.
On EU funding, one paper evaluates the economic benefits of the European Regional Development Fund and the Cohesion Fund, whilst another outlines the 50 largest beneficiaries of the Cohesion Fund and CAP in each member state.
In the area of Justice and Home Affairs, topics include: the situation of cross-border associations and NGOs; recommendations for amending the Europol Regulation; the impact of border geopolitics on Frontex; recommendations for EU policy and law making in criminal justice in the digital age; how migration policy should evolve to address to new realities.
Several articles consider Artificial Intelligence, including the challenges for European policy- making; the potential for the EU to become a sovereign digital power; the idea of a US-EU Digital Council; and policy challenges of a digital economy.
In the section on Foreign Affairs, topics range from NATO's strategic role and migration from Africa and the Middle East to the impact of Russia and Turkey as strategic partners and rivals, and security and defence policy, including the link between PESCO and the European Defence Fund. On Trade, papers consider EU relations with India, Turkey, China and the Southern Neighbourhood, as well as advancing human rights through trade.
The TTR can be downloaded from Council's Library blog. TTR articles are available via Eureka, the resource discovery service of the Council Libraries.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS SPECIAL FOCUS 5 COVID -19 5
SECTION 1 - EU POLITICS AND INSTITUTIONS 9 SECTION 2 - EU POLICIES 11 Agriculture / Fisheries 11 Competitiveness (Internal Market, Industry, Research and Space) 11 Economic and Financial Affairs 11 Education / Youth / Culture / Sport 12 Employment / Social Policy / Health and Consumer Affairs 13 Environmental Issues 13 General Affairs 15 Justice / Home Affairs 16 Transport / Telecommunications / Energy 17
SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS 19 Foreign and Security Policy / Defence 19 Trade 24 Africa 25 Asia-Oceania 26 Eastern Partnership 27 Latin America and the Caribbean 27 Middle East / North Africa (MENA) 28 Western Balkans 28 Russia 29 China 30 United Kingdom / Brexit 31 United States of America 32
SECTION 4 - EU MEMBER STATES 33 France 33 Germany 33 Italy 34 Netherlands 34
MISCELLANEOUS 35
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BARCELONA CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS ¿Cómo será la UE pospandemia? Diez retos para una Europa en busca de la recuperación
by Pol Morillas @polmorillas
The report maintains that the pandemic has SPECIAL FOCUS changed the geopolitical priorities and challenges for the European Union and that COVID -19 the way out of the health, socioeconomic and political crisis brought about by coronavirus INSTITUT DER DEUTSCHEN WIRTSCHAFT will also represent a step forward in the (IW, KÖLN) GERMAN ECONOMIC direction of a green and digital Europe. INSTITUTE However, according to the author, no Verschwörungsmythen besser verstehen : substantial changes are foreseen in the Hintergründe und Gegenmaßnahmen institutional arrangements or in the Union treaties after this crisis. (ES - 6 p.) by Dominik Enste @DominikEnste et al. PETERSON INSTITUTE FOR This analysis deals with the current INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS developments of conspiracy theories at the time of the Corona pandemic. The social Economic Costs and Benefits of threat of conspiracy narratives lies in the Accelerated COVID-19 Vaccinations social division due to different interpretations of reality, which then make a public by Joseph E. Gagnon et al. productive discourse impossible. Following the analysis of the underlying needs that The policy brief focuses on a quantitative make belief in conspiracy theories attractive, assessment of economic costs and benefits implications are given at the individual, of different rates of COVID-19 vaccination. It societal, and political levels that can function is based on US data but the approach may as countermeasures. (DE - 36 p.) be applied to other countries as well. Two illustrative scenarios support the conclusion that most plausible options to accelerate FRIENDS OF EUROPE vaccinations would have economic benefits that far exceed their costs, in addition to their EU Health Systems Postpandemic: more important accomplishment of saving Delivering Care to Patients at the Right lives. (16 p.) Place and Time by Geert Cami et al. JACQUES DELORS INSTITUTE (NOTRE EUROPE) According to the authors, COVID-19 highlighted the urgency of connecting Covax : L’Europe à l’épreuve de la solidarité different parts of health and social care vaccinale mondiale systems to provide coordinated and seamless care for citizens. This report is part by Isabelle Marchais @IMarchais of Friends of Europe health programme and has been drafted on the basis of a series of This report talks about the EU and Member working group meetings and discussions, States as one of the co-founders and the first which brought together a wide range of funder of COVAX, the international solidarity stakeholders from healthcare institutions, mechanism launched in April 2020 by the international organisations and industry to WHO, in collaboration with the Vaccine healthcare providers and patients. (28 p.) Alliance (Gavi) and the Coalition for Innovations in Epidemic Preparedness (CEPI). (FR - 12 p.)
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INSTITUT DE RELATIONS NEDERLANDS INSTITUUT VOOR INTERNATIONALES ET STRATÉGIQUES INTERNATIONALE BETREKKINGEN - (IRIS) CLINGENDAEL
Asymmetric Effects of The Covid Pandemic Infectious Disease Outbreak on Cruise on the Employment (1): Collapse in Informal Ships Employment This report discusses the prevention and by Seyfettin Gürsel @SeyfettinGursel et al. responses to the outbreak of infectious diseases on international cruise ships and The report attempts to touch upon how the system of international cooperation asymmetric consequences in a series of and coordination could be improved in the research briefs. In the first one of these wake of the COVID-19 outbreak incidents briefs, the focus is on how the level of affecting cruise ships, such as the Diamond employment among the non-agricultural Princess, the Westerdam and the Costa salaried workers is affected across the Atlantica. (22 p.) formal-informal divide. In the second and third briefs, it investigates the effects of COVID19 on the employment levels across EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK the sectorial and gender divide, respectively. Relaunching Transport and Tourism in the (9 p.) EU after COVID-19
CENTRE INTERNATIONAL DE FORMATION by Maria Rodrigues et al. EUROPÉENNE (CIFE) This thematic briefing provides the European COVID-19 and Lower Skilled Migrant Parliament’s Committee on Transport and Workers: Which Lessons for Europe? Tourism (TRAN) with an overview of the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic on by Flo Van den Broeck EU transport workers and their working conditions, as well as policy This policy paper explores how the global recommendations to address the challenges health crisis exposes the EU’s sectorial emerging from the crisis. (44 p.) approach to labour migration and why it is so important to bring about change. To do this, the EU’s funding and labour migration EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK instruments are assessed, as well as the Droit d’exception, une perspective de droit relevant labour market integration comparé : France : lois d'urgence pour faire challenges and patterns. (5 p.) face à l'épidémie de Covid-19
HERTIE SCHOOL / JACQUES DELORS by Jacques Ziller et al. CENTRE This document is part of a series of studies Crisis-Proof Schengen and Freedom of which, with a comparative law perspective, Movement: Lessons from the Covid-19 aim to present the “right of exception” in Pandemic different States, with particular attention to the legal bases on which emergency by Daniel Schade @danieldschade measures are adopted in the face of crises, such as the health crisis caused by the This policy paper considers whether COVID-19 epidemic. (FR – 118 p.) restrictions on the freedom of movement and limitations to the proper functioning of the Schengen area could cause long-term harm to freedom to travel in Europe. (18 p.)
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EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK the population to be vaccinated will become relevant for achieving the goal. (DE – 4 p.) Education and Youth in Post-COVID-19 Europe – Crisis Effects and Policy Recommendations ZENTRUM FÜR EUROPÄISCHE WIRTSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG (CENTRE FOR by Loes Van Der Graaf et al. EUROPEAN ECONOMIC RESEARCH)
This paper demonstrates that the COVID-19 Corporate Insolvencies in Times of COVID- pandemic posed unprecedented and 19 multidimensional challenges to the education systems and youth sector, revealing the lack by Oliver Dörr et al. of preparedness in terms of crisis This expert brief aims to provide facts on management and digital education firms and entrepreneurs which despite the responses, as well as reinforcing structural suspension of the filing obligation have still weaknesses of education delivery. There are declared insolvency during pandemic. valuable lessons to be learnt from policy Recent statistics show that during the first responses and best practices across year of the pandemic the numbers of Europe. (128 p.) insolvency filings have decreased significantly – just the opposite what is DEUTSCHES INSTITUT FÜR usually observed during economic crises. WIRTSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG (GERMAN (21 p.) INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH)
Temporary VAT Reduction During the DEUTSCHES INSTITUT FÜR Lockdown WIRTSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG (GERMAN INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH) by Marius Clemens @MariusClemens et al. Implications of Covid-19 for Conflict in This discussion paper evaluates the Africa temporary VAT reduction introduced by the by Charlotte Fiedler et al. German government over the third and fourth quarter of 2020 as most controversial Focusing on Africa, a continent with a part of the COVID-19 stimulus package. particularly high number of ongoing conflicts, Critics argue that VAT reductions are this policy brief analyses the immediate and ineffective because of limited pass-through long-term implications of the COVID-19 of temporary measures to consumer prices pandemic on conflict and reflects on its and the presence of lockdown measures. implications for international peacebuilding (37 p.) efforts. (4 p.)
ZENTRUM FÜR EUROPÄISCHE BRUEGEL WIRTSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG (CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN ECONOMIC RESEARCH) Reducing the Mobility of SARS-CoV-2 Variants to Safeguard Containment Ein flexibles Vergütungskonzept für Mediziner hilft, Herdenimmunität gegen by Martin Hellwig et al. COVID-19 zu erreichen Escape variants can cause new waves of by Vitali Gretschko et al. Covid-19 and put vaccination strategies at risk. To prevent or delay the global spread of Herd immunity, or at least a high level of these waves, virus mobility needs to be vaccination coverage, is one of the goals of minimised through screening and testing vaccination against COVID-19. Until now, strategies, which should also cover the quantity of vaccine has been a limiting vaccinated people. The costs of these factor, but this will disappear in the near strategies are minimal compared to the costs future. This paper argues that the supply of to health, society and economy from another vaccinating physicians and the willingness of wave. (8 p.)
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BRUEGEL EGMONT – ROYAL INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS The Great Covid-19 Divergence: Managing a Sustainable and Equitable Recovery in the Will Only a Green Power Remain a Great European Union Power? by Grégory Claeys @gregclaeys et al. by Marie Dejonghe
The authors suggest that policymakers must This report discusses the relation between act to prevent lasting divergence within the the global climate crisis and the pandemic. It EU and to prevent scarring from the fallout states lockdown measures taken by almost from the pandemic. The first priority is all governments have had a positive impact tackling the global health emergency. They on the emission of greenhouse gases. The warn against premature fiscal tightening and report wonders if Covid-19 has created a recommend instead additional short-term momentum to continue a structural support from national budgets. It will be also downward trend, where even the world’s crucial to adapt social security and taxation great powers will have to integrate the green systems in the context of the single market transition in their Covid-19 economy for labour. (15 p.) recovery plans to not fall off the wagon. (7 p.)
GROUP FOR LEGAL AND POLITICAL STUDIES
Women and the Pandemic: Health-Related, Socio-Economic and Psychological Impacts Worldwide. Where Does Kosovo Stand? by Nicasia Picciano
This paper talks about the gender dimensions of COVID-19. How can the gender-dimensions be better integrated into country’s policy-specific measures? With a view at providing an answer, this analysis tries to picture the key issues affecting women as a direct consequence of Covid-19 related-restrictions in five parts. (20 p.)
GROUP OF THIRTY
Sovereign Debt and Financing for Recovery After the Covid-19 Shock
This report acknowledges the world, including lower-income countries, have so far avoided large pandemic-driven debt defaults in part due to positive spillovers from extraordinary monetary and fiscal support in mature markets. However, the authors caution against complacency, warning that as the overall economic outlook brightens, the likelihood of tightening policy may result in outflows as well as further debt distress and ill effects in emerging and frontier market economies. The report underscores that now is the time to rebuild and reform the architecture to improve its long-term resilience and effectiveness. (38 p.)
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HERTIE SCHOOL / JACQUES DELORS CENTRE
Take Back Control? Digital Sovereignty and a Vision for Europe
by Anke S. Obendiek
This policy brief suggests that while the lofty concept of digital sovereignty is flawed, the debate points to a key weakness in digital policy: The author points to the need for lasting guiding principles for its regulatory, SECTION 1 - EU POLITICS economic, and normative digital future that AND INSTITUTIONS form the baseline for any kind of digital decision-making. (15 p.) CENTRUM STOSUNKÓW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS) The Six Policy Priorities of the von der Konferencja o przyszłości Europy Leyen Commission: State of Play in Spring by Maciej Zakrocki 2021 by Isabelle Gaudeul-Ehrhart (ed.) The Conference on the Future of Europe, launched in May by the EU institutions, offers This paper analyses progress in attaining the a platform where European citizens can policy agenda set out in December 2019 by present and discuss their vision of the EU. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the The paper analyses the idea of the European Commission. It looks in particular Conference as well as its inspirations, goals at the state of play in respect of delivery on and formulas. (PL - 17 p.) the six key priorities and how they have since been impacted by the coronavirus pandemic. JACQUES DELORS INSTITUTE (NOTRE The evidence so far suggests that, rather EUROPE) than undermine their original agenda or knock it badly off course, the Commission La gouvernance européenne face aux has been able to use the momentum of crises conditions pour un leadership events to assert the increased relevance of politique efficace et légitime their priorities – especially in the climate action and digital fields – and to by Thierry Chopin @Th_Chopin operationalise them further through the €750 billion 'Next Generation EU' (NGEU) This text attempts to: draw the lessons of a recovery fund. (22 p.) decade of "sovereignty shocks" for European governance (1); analyse the need for clear and responsible European leadership (2); FONDATION POUR L'INNOVATION define the political and institutional paths POLITIQUE likely to promote the emergence of an effective and legitimate European capacity La conversion des Européens aux valeurs for action and decision-making as part of a de droite short and medium-long term strategy (3). by Victor Delage (FR - 15 p.) Right-wing majorities are at the helm of most national governments in Europe. The data analysed in this study are intended to contribute to a better understanding of the reasons for the right-wing tilt that appears to be taking place in four major European
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SECTION 1 - EU POLITICS AND INSTITUTIONS democracies. The diagnosis of a rightward shift in society is based on the assimilation of values to right-wing culture, including nationalism via the identity question, economic liberalism and political liberalism indexed to individualism. (FR - 35 p.)
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Investing in Destabilisation: How Foreign Money Is Used to Undermine Democracy in the EU by Edoardo Bressanelli et al.
At the EU level, the recent reforms of the regulation on the funding of the Europarties and their associated foundations have banned contributions from abroad. Notwithstanding such welcome changes to party regulations, cases of foreign funding are still being reported in several member states, with foreign actors exploiting regulatory loopholes to channel funds or provide other types of support. The authors consider that to tackle this issue more effectively, regulatory convergence at the national level should be promoted, transparency of party accounts should be enhanced, and the monitoring and sanctioning powers of the relevant control authorities strengthened. (46 p.)
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for the distributional consequences of industrial policies. (13 p.)
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
First Recovery and Resilience Dialogue with the European Commission
by Cristina Dias et al.
Vice-President Dombrovskis and Commissioner Gentiloni have been invited to the first Recovery and Resilience Dialogue under the Recovery and Resilience Facility Regulation. This briefing addresses : the SECTION 2 - EU POLICIES Recovery and Resilience Facility and its scrutiny; the framework for defining and AGRICULTURE / FISHERIES assessing Recovery and Resilience Plans and the procedures and timelines for their EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK adoption; the financing of the Facility; data on the current economic situation and some Preliminary Impacts of the COVID-19 estimates on the impact of Facility. (21 p.) Pandemic on European Agriculture: A Sector-Based Analysis of Food Systems and Market Resilience BRUEGEL by Francesco Montanari et al. Research and Innovation Policies and Productivity Growth This study provides a preliminary quantitative and qualitative analysis of the by Reinhilde Veugelers impact of COVID-19 on European agriculture and the agri-food supply chain in light of the The author reviews the evidence on the responses deployed by the European Union impact of public intervention on private and its Member States to mitigate its effects. research and innovation, and how research (118 p.) and innovation and R&I policies affect growth in the applied macro models most commonly used in EU policy analysis. The evidence COMPETITIVENESS (INTERNAL suggests that R&I grants and R&I tax credits MARKET, INDUSTRY, can have positive effects in terms of RESEARCH AND SPACE) stimulating investment in innovation. (37 p.) HERTIE SCHOOL / JACQUES DELORS ECONOMIC AND CENTRE FINANCIAL AFFAIRS Go Big or Go Home: How to Make European Industrial Policy Work BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG by Nils Redeker @niredeker Europäische Förderpolitik in Polen, Tschechien und Deutschland Ziele, This paper argues that if the strategy is to Ausgestaltung und Umsetzung 2007-2020 grow some teeth, three fundamental by Olivia Kummel et al. changes are needed. First, real industrial policy is not available on the cheap. To This paper explore the execution of the implement industrial policies in line with the Cohesion Policy programmes in 2007-2020 stated ambitions, the EU needs new financial on a small scale in Poland, Germany and the instruments. Second, the EU must raise its Czech Republic. It gives an overview of the game when it comes to solving the strategies and goals of the EU as well as the macroeconomic trade-offs and accounting national priorities. Finally, it makes an
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exemplary qualitative analysis of three arising from the pandemic with the societal projects in Schwerin, Myszków and demand for more inclusive growth. Only in Chomutov. (DE - 38 p.) blending these challenges into a “Middle Way’ can the centre-right hope to lead the FOUNDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN economy recovery. (13 p.)
The European Central Bank's Strategic BRUEGEL Monetary Policy Review: The Key to a Return to Sustainable Growth in Europe Accounting for Climate Policies in Europe’s Sovereign Debt Market by Nicolas Goetzmann by Marta Domínguez-Jiménez @MartaDomnguezJ1 et al. This Monetary Policy Strategy Review aims to determine the causes of the low inflation EU countries have so far met investor observed in recent years, but also to assess appetite for climate-aligned assets through the means available to the ECB to counter sovereign green bonds, the issuance of this phenomenon. The strategy review which has rapidly grown since 2017. The EU discusses the fight against inflation since the itself will also issue green bonds in large drafting of the Maastricht Treaty, which is volumes. However, because of some seen as synonymous with the protection of inherent flaws in such instruments, these purchasing power, persistently low inflation bonds are unlikely to meet the environmental in the euro area is a symptom of low growth, criteria demanded by investors, and will sub-optimal employment and under- complicate established principles in investment. (14 p.) sovereign debt management. Greater transparency would support stability and EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK improve the functioning of capital markets. (16 p.) Communicating and Perceiving the EU Budget: Challenges and Outcomes EDUCATION / YOUTH / by Alina Dobreva et al. CULTURE / SPORT
The negotiations on the EU's 2021-2027 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK multiannual financial framework (MFF) and Next Generation EU (NGEU) intensified the Europe’s Media in the Digital Decade: An communication activity related to the EU Action Plan to Support Recovery and budget. This increased visibility might have Transformation in The News Media Sector contributed to the highest-ever citizen support for an increased EU budget (48 %). by Arthur Le Gall However, the authors consider that it did not The Media Action Plan released by the have sufficient impact in terms of creating a European Commission in December 2020 is realistic citizens' perception of the EU's the first policy document explicitly setting out actual spending priorities. (43 p.) a vision and dedicated initiatives for the news media sector. This paper discusses the WILFRIED MARTENS CENTRE FOR current situation of the sector and its revenue EUROPEAN STUDIES streams, the important impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the main public Getting Back to Basics: Four Centre Right and private funding models to support the Steps to Economic Recovery sector. (40 p.) by Eoin Drea @EoinDrea
This policy brief analyses why Europe and the centre-right simply can’t afford to get this recovery wrong. The challenge is to develop a policy approach which balances the unprecedented economic circumstances
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CENTER FOR RESEARCH AND POLICY objective, or whether it is possible to give MAKING more substance to social investments, through topic of the development of the Response to Online Radicalization: European level in the fight against Towards On-Line Safety Education Policy homelessness particularly in the context of the Covid crisis. (FR - 17 p.) by Marija Risteska et al.
This policy paper is intended to inform the CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND education policy development towards online INTERNATIONAL STUDIES safety. It has been developed using multiple methods: desk-top research, face-to-face Women and Trade: How Trade Agreements interviewing of key stakeholders who, for the Can Level the Gender Playing Field purpose of the paper, remain anonymous, by Ally Brodsky et al. and primary data findings from the CRPM baseline assessment on the use of education International trade has historically been to prevent youth online radicalization. (36 p.) considered “gender neutral”. Yet, in practice, even seemingly neutral trade policies can EMPLOYMENT / SOCIAL POLICY / discriminate against women. CSIS research HEALTH AND has focused on the intersection of gender and trade, and in a new report, the CSIS CONSUMER AFFAIRS Scholl Chair in International Business considers what policymakers and FUNDACIÓN DE ESTUDIOS DE ECONOMÍA negotiators can do to improve women’s APLICADA global market access. (59 p.) Umbrales y excepciones como fallo regulatorio ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES by Benito Arruñada ECOLOGIC INSTITUTE / INSTITUTE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND The author puts the attention on the INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS surprisingly high number of Spanish companies that have exactly 49 employees. Climate Governance Systems in Europe: The reason of this anomaly is that these The Role of National Advisory Bodies companies try to benefit from the regulatory exceptions enjoyed by smaller companies. by Nick Evans et al. As a result, the article argues that many regulatory exceptions are not due to the fact This report, commissioned by the European that the application of such rules is more Environment Agency (EEA), provides a costly or less socially beneficial for the comprehensive mapping of national climate excluded companies, but because the legal change advisory bodies in its 32 member exception increases political support for the countries plus the United Kingdom and corresponding rules or reduces possible frames this exercise with an analysis of their opposition to them. (ES - 21 p.) national governance contexts. Sufficiently detailed governance systems can facilitate effective national climate policy-making. The JACQUES DELORS INSTITUTE (NOTRE accountability and transparency of these EUROPE) systems can be strengthened by dedicated Européaniser la prise en charge des sans- advisory bodies. (67 p.) abris by Julien Damon
This report explores the question of whether the European Union is simply a project for the completion of the internal market, with social policies subordinating to this main
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INSTITUTE FOR EUROPEAN EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR DEVELOPMENT ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY POLICY MANAGEMENT
2021 European Green Deal Barometer The EU Budget and External Climate Financing: The State of Play by Céline Charveriat @MCcharveriat et al. by Mariella Di Ciommo @marielladc et al. The report identifies the challenges to the European Green Deal’s implementation and This note outlines the challenges and provides policy recommendations for opportunities for mobilising the EU’s addressing them. It builds on the Think2030 resources to support its climate ambitions. survey, an expert consultation of nearly 300 To achieve its ambitions, the EU would need sustainability experts from governments and to take some steps, including adopting a regulators, NGOs, academia, research climate justice perspective into EU climate institutes and the private sector. (38 p.) action, credibly implementing the ‘do no harm’ principle and the commitment to align INSTITUTE FOR EUROPEAN to the Paris Agreement, and exploiting the enhanced coordination envisioned by Team ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY Europe. (21 p.) Building on Nature: Area-Based Conservation as a Key Tool for Delivering EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR DEVELOPMENT Sdgs POLICY MANAGEMENT by Marianne Kettunen @makettunen et al. The Green Deal in EU Foreign and Development Policy This report identifies various ways in which effective area-based conservation can be a by Chloe Teevan @ChloeTvan et al. proactive tool for delivering Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Furthermore, With the European Green Deal, the EU plans the document details 30 case studies that to become a global leader in tackling climate illustrate the links between protected and change. This note lays out aspects of the conserved areas and various SDGs that are external dimension of the Green Deal, already in practice around the world. Finally, arguing that the EU is simultaneously taking it provides guidance and tools explaining a collaborative, a coercive and a diplomatic how governments, industry and civil society approach in its foreign and development can integrate protected and conserved areas policy. The note focuses particularly on how into their SDG strategies and reporting the EU might mitigate some of the potentially processes. (236 p.) destabilising impacts of its own transition on partner countries. (20 p.) JACQUES DELORS INSTITUTE (NOTRE EUROPE) INSTITUT PRO EVROPSKOU POLITIKU EUROPEUM (EUROPEUM INSTITUTE FOR Climat : Comment Votent Les Députés EUROPEAN POLICY) Européens ? Co čekat od nového klimaticko- by Sébastien Maillard (ed.) @seb_maillard energetického balíčku Fit for 55?
This report provides an overview of political by Lucie Vinařská dynamics within the European Parliament on major issues relating to European climate This policy paper presents a new climate and legislation (greenhouse gas emissions energy package called Fit for 55, which aims reduction targets, deforestation, Emissions to virtually reduce emissions to 55% Trading System emission, Just Transition compared to 1990. (CS - 7 p.) Fund, Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, etc.). (FR - 29 p.)
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DEUTSCHES INSTITUT FÜR INSTITUT FÜR WELTWIRTSCHAFT KIEL WIRTSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG (GERMAN (KIEL INSTITUTE FOR THE WORLD INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH) ECONOMY)
Climate Neutral Production, Free Allocation Climate Policies after Paris: Pledge, Trade, of Allowances Under Emissions Trading and Recycle Systems, and the WTO: How to Secure Compatibility with The ASCM by Christoph Boehringer et al. by Roland Ismer et al. This article summarizes insights of the 36th Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF36) on This paper analyses the WTO’s Agreement the magnitude and distribution of economic on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures adjustment costs to greenhouse gas (ASCM) consistency of three selected emission reduction targets. The study support schemes for emission reductions. suggests that tightening of NDCs in line with The analysis reveals that the current system the commonly agreed 2◦C temperature of carbon leakage protection through free target will induce global economic costs of allocation is vulnerable to challenges under roughly 1% in 2030 – yet, these costs are the ASCM. By contrast, a transition to a unevenly spread across regions with fossil combination of free allocation and a charge fuel exporting countries being most on carbon-intensive materials would adversely affected from the transition implement consistent carbon-pricing and towards a low-carbon economy. (43 p.) thus would very likely not amount to a subsidy under the ASCM. (18 p.) GENERAL AFFAIRS
INSTITUT FÜR WELTWIRTSCHAFT KIEL BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG (KIEL INSTITUTE FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY) Evaluating EU Cohesion Policy Using Satellite Data Gains Associated With Linking the EU and Chinese ETS Under Different Assumptions by Julia Bachtrögler-Unger @JBachtroegler et al. on Restrictions, Allowance Endowments, and International Trade This paper evaluates the economic effects of the European Regional Development Fund by Malte Winkler et al. and the Cohesion Fund since 2007. For a selected pilot region in the border area of the Linking the EU and Chinese Emission Czech Republic, Germany and Poland it Trading Systems (ETS) increases the cost collects data on EU funding at the efficiency of reaching greenhouse gas municipality level. Using night light emission mitigation targets, but both partners will data as a proxy for economic development, it benefit – if at all – to different degrees. The shows that the receipt of a higher amount of paper evaluates the effects of linking ETS in EU funding is associated with higher growth combination with 1) restricted allowances in these areas. (61 p.) trading, 2) adjusted allowance endowments to compensate China, and 3) altered Armington elasticities when NDC targets are EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK met. (25 p.) The Largest 50 Beneficiaries in Each EU Member State of CAP and Cohesion Funds
by Willem Pieter De Groen et al.
This report provides the findings of the study on “The largest 50 beneficiaries in each EU Member State of CAP and Cohesion Funds”. Based on the analysis of more than 12 million beneficiaries of the common agricultural policy (CAP) in 2018 and 2019 and about 600 000 beneficiaries receiving cohesion
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funds between 2014 and 2020, it identifies EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK the largest direct and ultimate beneficiaries of EU funds. Moreover, it covers the results Strengthening Europol’s Mandate: A Legal of an assessment of almost 300 systems for Assessment of the Commission’s Proposal the public disclosure of the beneficiaries of to Amend the Europol Regulation CAP and Cohesion policy. Finally, it gives by Niovi Vavoula recommendations to enhance the public disclosure on beneficiaries of EU funds. This study aims to provide background (154 p.) information on the current legal framework of Europol and a legal assessment of the JUSTICE / HOME AFFAIRS European Commission’s proposal of 9 December 2020 to strengthen Europol’s EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK mandate, divided in thematic blocks. The legal assessment is accompanied by policy A Statute for European Cross-Border recommendations. (76 p.) Associations and Non- Profit Organizations: Potential Benefits in the Current Situation BRUSSELS SCHOOL OF GOVERNANCE by Antonio Fici The Other Frontex Debate: How Border This study provides a comparative analysis Geopolitics Will Define the Future of of the main laws on non-profit organizations Schengen in force in some selected European by Roderick Parkes countries, before going on to discuss a potential legislative initiative of the European The dubious practices of FRONTEX, the Union on the subject. The study sets out the EU’s border agency, are being hotly debated different options available and concludes by parliamentarians and NGOs in legal and that the EU should introduce a European constitutional terms. However, the Schengen status which, rather than being limited to area is a product of geopolitics, and non-profit organizations, should also seek to FRONTEX’s role and practices are likewise include related organizations such as those a reflection of geopolitical agendas. There of the third sector and the social economy. are at least five vectors of EU border (98 p.) geopolitics, emanating from the EC and geographic clusters of member states — and EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK from FRONTEX itself. (6 p.)
A Statute for European Cross-Border CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY Associations and Non-Profit Organisations: STUDIES / GLOBAL POLICY INSTITUTE European Added Value Assessment by Klaus Müller et al. Criminal Justice, Fundamental Rights and the Rule of Law in the Digital Age
This assessment reviews the current by Sergio Carrera et al. situation of NPOs in the EU and the challenges that limit their development Technology has played a crucial role in across national borders. It then proceeds to ensuring the continued functioning of identify avenues for EU action, including criminal justice at the EU and national level specific policy options. It also highlights during the Covid-19 emergency. The high- supporting non-legislative measures that level expert group (HLEG) on criminal justice could promote specific NPO functions in the in the digital age has examined how different EU, such as service provision, civic technologies can affect the functioning of a engagement and advocacy, financial variety of criminal justice systems, processes intermediation and social innovation. (110 p.) and practices at the national and European level. The HLEG’s discussions provided the expert knowledge needed to set out recommendations towards better EU policy
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and law making in the area of criminal justice TRANSPORT / in the digital age. (75 p.) TELECOMMUNICATIONS / ENERGY INSTITUT PRO EVROPSKOU POLITIKU EUROPEUM (EUROPEUM INSTITUTE FOR REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO EUROPEAN POLICY) ROYAL INSTITUTE)
Citizenship and Residency by Investment in Hacia un régimen europeo de control de la the EU Inteligencia Artificial by Rose Hartwig-Peillon by Andrés Ortega @andresortegak
This paper addresses the issue of granting The author writes about the European citizenship and residency. The author calls Commission's proposal to regulate Artificial for a major redesign of the existing programs Intelligence (AI) in the EU, banning some and for an EU-wide debate on the schemes applications that can violate European rights at the occasion of the Conference on the and limiting others of high risk. At the same Future of Europe. (11 p.) time, it has presented a Coordinated Plan on AI that comes to update, post-pandemic, the WIENER INSTITUT FÜR INTERNATIONALE strategy that it had previously presented, WIRTSCHAFTSVERGLEICHE (THE VIENNA especially in the field of investments, for INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL which it anticipates 20,000 million euros per ECONOMIC STUDIES) year. (ES - 8 p.)
Future Migration Flows to the EU: Adapting INSTITUT DE RELATIONS Policy to the New Reality in a Managed and INTERNATIONALES ET STRATÉGIQUES Sustainable Way (IRIS) by Richard Grieveson @RicGri et al. Perspectives d’évolution des biocarburants: In the coming decades, there is likely to be a Jeux des acteurs et enjeux fonciers substantial increase in the number of people by David Amsellem et al. trying to reach the EU, particularly from Africa and the Middle East. Migration and The main objective of this report is to analyse integration policy will have to recognise this the energy strategies of three key players: fact. In this policy note, we provide an China, the United States and Russia. (FR - overview of EU migration policy as it stands, 56 p.) and in particular its evolution since the migration and refugee crisis of 2015-2016. We detail our proposals for how EU migration EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN policy should evolve in order to meet the RELATIONS challenges that the coming decades will Network Effects: Europe’s Digital bring. (26 p.) Sovereignty in the Mediterranean
by Matteo Colomo et al.
This report discusses how geopolitics influences states’ decisions about who is allowed to build internet infrastructure throughout the EU’s wider neighbourhood. It claims that the EU has the potential to become a sovereign digital power, but lacks an all-encompassing strategy for the sector. It concludes that the EU should set industry standards, help European telecommunications companies win
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business abroad, and protect internet ZENTRUM FÜR EUROPÄISCHE infrastructure against hostile powers. (29 p.) WIRTSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG (CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN ECONOMIC RESEARCH)
ROBERT SCHUMAN CENTRE FOR Justification and Specification of Maximum ADVANCED STUDIES and Minimum Balancing Energy Prices
Unlocking the Potential of AI: Opportunities by Karl-Martin Ehrhart et al. and Challenges for European Policy To support the efficient functioning of the by Philip Hanspach et al. balancing energy market, harmonised This brief presents several goals and maximum and minimum balancing energy expectations of AI and algorithms in society. prices can be introduced in the markets for It covers the difficulties of writing laws and upward and downward balancing energy regulation for new technologies; economic pursuant to Article 30(2) of the Commission interactions with AI and algorithmic collusion; Regulation (EU) 2017/2195 (henceforth and algorithmic content filtering for online referred to as the “EB Regulation”). This platforms. So far, most action happens report aims at a justification and specification outside of Europe. To become more of harmonised maximum and minimum innovative and competitive, both more balancing energy prices on the European investment and more data to train algorithms platforms for the exchange of balancing are needed, and appropriate conditions must energy. (11 p.) be established. (8 p.) PROGRESSIVE POLICY INSTITUTE
ATLANTIC COUNCIL Unlocking Frontier Technology: The Policy Proposal for a US-EU Digital Council: Challenge of The Digital Economy Building a Comprehensive Conversation by James Bessen @JamesBessen by Frances Burwell This paper examines how information This paper proposes a US-EU Digital Council technology has been creating new benefits as a forum for high-level, strategic dialogues for consumers, new well-paying jobs, and to build a transatlantic consensus on digital improved productivity growth for some time and tech policy. (10 p.) now and how large firms across the economy have been making huge investments in new information technologies that have delivered CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY major social benefits. (14 p.) STUDIES
Artificial Intelligence and Cybersecurity: Technology, Governance and Policy Challenges by Lorenzo Pupillo et al.
The benefits of artificial intelligence (AI) technology are numerous, but so are the challenges it presents. This report contributes to EU efforts to establish a sound policy framework for AI; and presents the main ethical implications and policy issues related to the implementation of AI as they pertain to cybersecurity. (122 p.)
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but also disagreements in the means to achieve these goals. The historically strained relations between Korea and Japan further complicate possible trilateral cooperation. (DE - 50 p.)
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK (GERMAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL AND SECURITY AFFAIRS)
Tschechisch-russische Zerwürfnisse nach Anschlagsvorwürfen SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS by Kai-Olaf Lang Prague accuses Russian agents of being FOREIGN AND SECURITY responsible for the two 2014 explosions in an POLICY / DEFENCE ammunition depot in Vrbětice that killed two persons. Consequently, the Czech HANNS-SEIDEL-STIFTUNG (HANNS SEIDEL government demands a reduction of Russian FOUNDATION) embassy staff, meaning most likely a reduction in Russian intelligence personnel. Handlungsbedarfe für die NATO : The author analyses further likely Geopolitische Rivalität im Weltraum consequences of these historically low relations between the nations and urges by Andrea Rotter @AndreaRotter33 Germany to enter a dialogue with the Czech Republic vis-à-vis Russian hybrid threats. Modern armies rely heavily on space-based (DE - 8 p.) applications. The author claims that space is increasingly turning into an area of geopolitical rivalry. The paper admonishes WIENER INSTITUT FÜR INTERNATIONALE that NATO now has to further turn its WIRTSCHAFTSVERGLEICHE (THE VIENNA attention to space, even though first steps INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL have been made. It sees areas of ECONOMIC STUDIES) improvement especially in strategic Potential Mobility from Africa, Middle East questions, cooperation and communication and EU Neighbouring Countries to Europe between members, integration of space into planning and operations and involvement of by Isilda Mara et al. civilian and commercial actor. (DE - 7 p.) Migration from Africa and the Middle East to STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK the EU has intensified over the last two (GERMAN INSTITUTE FOR decades. Relative differences in terms of INTERNATIONAL AND SECURITY AFFAIRS) development have not declined much and continue to drive mobility. Other forces Die US-Bündnisse mit Japan und Südkorea: related to conflicts and wars, as well as Stärken und Bruchlinien in der climate risks, have become important drivers sicherheitspolitischen Kooperation as well. Migration policies will also play a role in shaping future migration trends. This study by Marco Overhaus @moverhaus et al. seeks to calculate long-term potential mobility from Africa, the Middle East and This paper explores the US alliances with Eastern EU neighbouring countries to the EU Japan and South Korea that are fundamental and EFTA. (38 p.) for the security architecture in the Indo- Pacific. The alliances have proven to be strong throughout political changes. There is general alignment of the security goals of the countries towards China and North Korea,
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FRIENDS OF EUROPE REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE) Crossing the Wilderness - Europe and the Sahel La nueva estrategia de la UE para Rusia: un equilibrio de debilidad by Paul Taylor by Mira Milosevich-Juaristi Based on a range of interviews with African, European and US policymakers, military The analysis paper elaborates on EU-Russia commanders, civil society activists and relief relations. It starts from 2014, when the EU workers, this report considers how staged the end of cooperation with Russia, European, African and international policies following the annexation of Crimea and the can be adapted to achieve stability and a war in Ukraine. Since then, rivalry and better outcome for the peoples of the Sahel confrontation have intensified between and produces a set of recommendations to Brussels and Moscow and the author argues capitalise on existing efforts and create new that relations will continue to deteriorate, opportunities to secure peace and stability, because there is an incompatibility between crucial for development and ending the cycle the foreign and security policy objectives of of conflict. (106 p.) both. (ES - 6 p.)
INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS BARCELONA CENTRE FOR ESTRATÉGICOS INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
Negociar con Irán: una nueva mano en una The EU and the Eastern Mediterranean: vieja partida How to Deal With Turkey by José Ignacio Castro Torres by Eduard Soler i Lecha @solerlecha
EU-sponsored nuclear talks have recently The author suggests that EU leaders and resumed for the US returning to the Joint institutions have always seen Ankara as a Comprehensive Action Plan (JCPOA), difficult partner and a troublesome ally, but abandoned by the Americans in 2018. Since Turkey is increasingly depicted as a 2019, the Iranians have systematically failed geopolitical rival. In the article, it is argued to comply with the terms of the agreement that the bases for an appeasement are and now are in a situation where they are fragile and sooner or later tensions will demanding the lifting of US sanctions to resurface, but a more cohesive, frank and reverse their position. The author discusses understanding EU could make a difference. how finding common positions seems to be (8 p.) an arduous, but not impossible task. (ES - 16 p.) EURO-MEDITERRANEAN STUDY COMMISSION INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS Beyond Networks, Militias and Tribes: Rethinking EU Counter-Smuggling Policy Eritrea y su intervención en el conflicto and Response etíope en Tigray by Gabriella Sanchez (ed.) et al. by Blanca Palacián de Inza According to the authors, amid the end of In November 2020, the Government of Operation Sophia, the announcement of a Ethiopia started an armed conflict with the new migration package together with a new northern region of the country called Tigray, Security Union Strategy, and the release of in which neighbouring Eritrea has been the Roadmap to the European Union (EU) involved. This document discusses these Action Plan against migrant smuggling difficulties and the reasons why Eritrea has (2021-2025), there is momentum to reflect intervened in the neighbouring country, its critically on the actions and instruments the old enemy. (ES - 12 p.) EU has deployed to counter migrant smuggling in the Mediterranean and beyond,
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SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS and to propose what should be done Different case studies illustrate OSCE differently under the forthcoming term. efforts, notably challenges emanating from (95 p.) the abuses of digital technology; the fight against hate crime on social media; the POLSKI INSTYTUT SPRAW nexus between climate change, development and security; and the need to MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (THE POLISH address migration and human trafficking as INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS) well as the global effects of the covid-19 In Search of Direction: EU Strategic pandemic. (25 p.) Compass INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS by Marcin Terlikowski @MTerlikowski INTERNATIONALES (IFRI)
Strategic Compass may provide momentum La redécouverte du défi logistique militaire for EU defence cooperation, speed-up development of military capabilities in by Jean-Marc Bacquet Europe, reinforce NATO’s deterrence and reduce transatlantic tensions over burden- The COVID-19 pandemic puts the logistics sharing. Yet, some Member States are issue in the spotlight in a new way, concerned about the negative effects of this highlighting the dependence of societies on exercise on NATO, and may not implement access to vital resources. The author its results if the EU military level of ambition considers how logistics seems to have really is set too high. The paper presents several entered the circle of strategic functions that recommendations for taking a middle-of-the- contribute to the sustainability of road approach. (5 p.) organizations and their activities. (FR - 13 p.)
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI) INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES (IFRI) Europe's Missile Defence and Italy: Capabilities and Cooperation Russia and Turkey Strategic Partners and Rivals by Alessandro Marrone @Alessandro__Ma et al. by Pavel Baev The study addresses Europe’s missile defence. A multi-level perspective is adopted The aim of the analysis is to examine the touching on various aspects and providing a possible impacts of Russian-Turkish joint comprehensive overview of the topic. The and disjoint actions on the security study takes into consideration the most developments in the EU Southern and relevant Allies in terms of missile defence Eastern neighbourhoods and NATO’s Black capabilities, but technological innovation, the Sea and Eastern Mediterranean theatres. state of the art outside NATO’s perimeter, (29 p.) international treaties and regimes for arms control. Particular attention is given to Italy INSTITUT DE RELATIONS and to the developments that are of interest INTERNATIONALES ET STRATÉGIQUES for Rome. (117 p.) (IRIS)
Linking PESCO and EDF: Institutional ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI) Mechanisms and Political Choices Comprehensive Security and New by Edouard Simon @edouardsimon711 et al. Challenges: Strengthening the OSCE by Monika Wohlfeld et al. This new ARES report proposes an in-depth analysis of the potential linkages between The paper analyses the OSCE's two of the new EU initiatives in the field of comprehensive approach in Europe, its defence capabilities development, namely relations with other international the Permanent Structured Cooperation organisations and with neighbouring regions. (PESCO) and the European Defence Fund
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(EDF). It discusses the rationale of such a NEDERLANDS INSTITUUT VOOR linkage and offers a review of the main INTERNATIONALE BETREKKINGEN - options on the table. (26 p.) CLINGENDAEL
NAVO 2030: op automatische piloot of juist CENTRE INTERNATIONAL DE FORMATION de vlucht naar voren? EUROPÉENNE (CIFE) by Hugo Klijn EU Arms Export Policy: Achievements and Current Challenges This piece discusses the report NATO 2030 ‘Untied for a New Era’ and its consequences, by Kyriakos Revelas which was published by NATO last More than 20 years since the operation of November. This report explores how to this common regime for conventional arms strengthen unity and solidarity within the exports, the EU can look back with pride to Alliance and how to boost internal its achievements in terms of policy discussion. (NL – 6 p.) convergence, increased transparency and international influence. The author considers NEDERLANDS INSTITUUT VOOR that, as decision-making remains national, INTERNATIONALE BETREKKINGEN - expectations are not being fulfilled and CLINGENDAEL challenges must be addressed in order to preserve the cohesion, effectiveness and The EU’s Strategic Compass for Security credibility of EU policy in a domain which is and Defence central to international peace and security. by Dick Zandee (5 p.) This Strategic Compass discusses the EU’s HERTIE SCHOOL / JACQUES DELORS security and defence efforts so far. It claims CENTRE that without strategic direction, European defence cooperation instruments tend to The EU as an Autonomous Defence Actor become bureaucratic tools rather than the rails on which the train travels to its by Nicole Koenig @Nic_Koenig destination. (76 p.) This paper reviews policy development since 2006, assesses where the EU stands and CENTAR ZA EVROPSKE POLITIKE develops recommendations concerning the (EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE) next steps. (13 p.) The EU and Turkey: Toward Sustainable Cooperation in Migration Management and NEDERLANDS INSTITUUT VOOR Refugee Protection INTERNATIONALE BETREKKINGEN - CLINGENDAEL by Alberto-Horst Neidhardt et al.
Poetin, Erdoğan en de worsteling van de The authors discuss current challenges and NAVO opportunities for future cooperation on migration between the EU and Turkey by Bob Deen @bob_deen et al. focusing on the EU-Turkey Statement of 2016 and regarding the new proposals of the According to this report, Russia’s and Turkey New Pact on Migration and Asylum. (76 p.) actions represent a headache for NATO and undermine internal unity within the alliance. This report zooms into four recent cases: Syria, Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh and the Turkish purchase of Russian S400 missiles to explain the actions of 'frenemies' Putin and Erdoğan. (NL - 6 p.)
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EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK COLLEGE OF EUROPE
Review of the Preparatory Action on The EU’s Permanent Structured Defence Research (PADR) and European Cooperation, NATO, and the US: Beyond a Defence Industrial Development Zero-Sum Game Programme (EDIDP): lessons for the implementation of the European Defence by Lorenzo Giuglietti. Fund (EDF) The European Union’s Permanent and by Frédéric Mauro @fredericmauro et al. Structured Cooperation (PESCO) understandably captures the attention of Of all European defence initiatives launched policymakers and experts due to the since 2016, the European Defence Fund engagements member states committed to (EDF) is without doubt one of the most and the consequences for the EU’s defence promising, if not the most promising. architecture in terms of defence capabilities However, the authors consider that the EDF and defence industry. the EU must spell out will not by itself solve all problems related to its priorities in the wake of current global the fragmentation and therefore inefficiency challenges and pledges for a reformed and of European defence procurement. Only the strategic approach. This entails clarifying the Member States can do so, working in good role of PESCO to attain those goals, faith together with the Commission in promoting cooperation with the Alliance, deciding the EDF work programme and welcoming third-party participation in funding allocations. Keeping the course PESCO, and striving for a fairer transatlantic between at times conflicting paths and defence market. (5 p.) ensuring the return on a meaningful but still modest investment (EUR 7.9 billion over CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY seven years) will be the main EDF STUDIES challenges in the years ahead. (110 p.) Turkey and the Eastern Mediterranean: EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK Geopolitical Europe’s Pathway to Strategic Autonomy? Defence Industry Cooperation in the European Union: Rationale, Initiatives, by Zachary Paikin @zpaikin et al. Achievements The EU currently faces a volatile and shifting by Cemal Karakas et al. environment in the Eastern Mediterranean (East Med) centred on a difficult relationship Offering an overview of cooperation in the with Turkey. Against the backdrop of growing European defence industry and the rationale competition over energy resources and behind it, this paper provides an analysis of proliferating conflicts in the wider the EU's political initiatives, institutional neighbourhood, there remains space for EU setting, instruments and laws in the context institutions and member states to take of enhancing economic cooperation in the actions that enhance their capacity for defence sector. It also goes on to examine strategic action, anchor Turkey in Europe, the potential of the EU's new instrument, the and foster a more inclusive and level-headed European Defence Fund and the prospects climate for regional security. (15 p.) of the French- German-Spanish future combat air system project, Europe's most ambitious joint defence programme. The paper ends by outlining the European Parliament's position on defence market cooperation within the Union and closes with an outlook. (26 p.)
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TRADE CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES POLSKI INSTYTUT SPRAW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (THE POLISH The EU-China Comprehensive Agreement INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS) on Investment
Prospects for EU-India Trade and by Weinian Hu Investment Agreements After the This text-based analysis considers how the Conclusion of the CAI Negotiations agreement lifts the barriers to market access by Patryk Kugiel @PKugiel that European businesses have been confronted with, advances the EU’s WTO The conclusion of negotiations of the reform agenda on a number of procedural Comprehensive Agreement on Investment requirements in a WTO-plus manner, and (CAI) between the EU and China in locks in the EU’s values under international December 2020 stirred heated debate in commitments on sustainable development. It Europe and beyond, with India being the does acknowledge, however, that reducing harshest critic. Recognised for its political coal dependency will be a challenging significance, the agreement has several undertaking for China, in view of the negative economic implications for India and country’s economic growth plans. (28 p.) is important for the EU-India trade and investments negotiations. It strengthens the CHATHAM HOUSE - THE ROYAL EU’s bargaining position, which may push INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS India to more concessions and open the way for progress in EU-India talks. (5 p.) Advancing Human Rights Through Trade: Why Stronger Human Rights Monitoring Is Needed and How To Make It Work ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚΌ ΊΔΡΥΜΑ ΕΥΡΩΠΑΪΚΉΣ ΚΑΙ ΕΞΩΤΕΡΙΚΉΣ ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚΉΣ (HELLENIC by Jennifer Zerk et al. FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN FOREIGN POLICY) Political shifts, the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, and the struggle for a shared EU-Turkey Economic Relations and the vision of how to ‘build back better’, have Customs Union: A Rules-Based Approach reignited the debate about trade and human rights. Although many trade agreements by Dimitris Tsarouhas @dimitsar take human rights impacts into The paper’s main argument is that a positive consideration, the monitoring systems that or negative decision on CU modernization have emerged so far are not comprehensive. depends on the willingness of Brussels to While there are considerable structural, engage with “the Turkey question” from a political and resource-related challenges to strategic, rather than tactical, point of view. conducting more systematic and effective The current state of affairs may be low cost human rights monitoring, recent experiences for EU governments but contributes nothing in this field can help policymakers design to the ostensible goal of maintaining Turkey more effective monitoring mechanisms for within the orbit of reliable partners that share the future. (68 p.) the oft-cited EU “values” and act upon them. (14 p.) EURO-MEDITERRANEAN STUDY COMMISSION
Post-Covid-19 EU-Southern Neighbourhood Trade Relations
by Katarzyna W. Sidło (ed.) @katsidlo et al.
This policy study explores the impact of the first months of the ongoing pandemic on trade relations between the EU and countries
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SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS in the Southern Neighbourhood (SN), as well NEDERLANDS INSTITUUT VOOR as – whenever possible – sub-Saharan INTERNATIONALE BETREKKINGEN - Africa. The authors start by reviewing the CLINGENDAEL existing legislative framework for trade between the EU, the SN and the African Financial Disruption and Fragile Markets: A continent as a whole. Subsequently, they Political-Economic Perspective on SMEs in assess the direct and indirect impact of the Somali Private Sector Under COVID-19 COVID-19 on intra- and inter-regional trade by Jos Meester et al. in goods and services between SN countries and the EU. (96 p.) This report explores SME growth and resilience in the fragile Somali context during AFRICA the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic has demonstrated how Somali businesses have ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI) continued to be resilient. However, it has also exposed the sizeable vulnerability Europe–Africa Connectivity Outlook 2021: associated with the Somali territories’ trade, Post-Covid-19 Challenges and Strategic import dependence and financing system. Opportunities (85 p.) by Michaël Tanchum @michaeltanchum EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN The authors affirm that the European Union RELATIONS stands at a critical junction in the international scramble to establish Europe– Free to Choose: A New Plan for Peace in Africa commercial corridors. They claim that Western Sahara the reason for this phenomenon is the role of by Hugh Lovatt @h_lovatt et al. Morocco, Algeria and Egypt as geopolitical gatekeepers. Moreover, undeterred by the This report discusses the recent violent end Covid-19 pandemic, China, Russia, Turkey of the ceasefire in Western Sahara and and the Arab Gulf states have expanded claims that the EU and the UN should pay their economic investments in these renewed attention to resolving the countries, reshaping the configuration of the longstanding conflict between the native trans-Mediterranean corridors. The paper Sahrawis and Morocco. It discusses how the concludes that the EU has a window of UN should pursue a “free association” option opportunity to influence the direction of for Western Sahara – a third way that offers Europe. (32 p.) a realistic means of fulfilling Sahrawi self- determination. (32 p.). INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES (IFRI) EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR DEVELOPMENT POLICY MANAGEMENT Vers la santé pour tous en Côte d'Ivoire ? La couverture sanitaire universelle comme AU-EU Cooperation on Climate and Energy: enjeu de redéfinition de l'Etat et de In Search of a Common Narrative légitimation du régime by Alfonso Medinilla by Clément Soriat This note discusses engagement between Based on a field survey carried out in Côte the EU and the African Union on climate, the d'Ivoire as part of the research program environment and green transition. While “Faire des politiques publiques en Afrique”, Europe and Africa have different climate the author questions the genesis of Universal needs and interests, some of the building Health Coverage (UHC) in the field of global blocks of a joint AU-EU agenda are starting health and its appropriation in the Ivorian to appear. Achieving an ambitious AU-EU context. This process is put into perspective alliance on climate and green transition will with a more general socio-history of the to a large extent depend on the ability of Ivorian state. (FR - 28 p.) Europe and other powers to ensure an
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SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS equitable and sustainable global recovery in BRUSSELS SCHOOL OF GOVERNANCE the short term. (9 p.) EU-Japan Relations: Moving Forward
INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR by Céline Pajon @CelinePajon et al. MIGRATION POLICY DEVELOPMENT EU-Japan relations have undergone a major Regional Overview: Africa uplift over the past 5 years. Bound by the by Fanny Tittel-Mosser economic and strategic partnership agreements, as well as the partnership on The Africa overview of diaspora engagement sustainable connectivity, the two once- is one of a six-part regional series analysing distant players have been stepping up efforts diaspora engagement around the world. It to address the many shared security draws on knowledge gathered during the concerns in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. mapping of 41 African countries, including Ahead of the upcoming EU-Japan summit, relevant policy and institutional frameworks, this brief takes stock of the current state of trends, good practices and play and offers some food for thought on how recommendations at regional level. (19 p.) to move forward with the bilateral relationship. (6 p.) ASIA-OCEANIA DEUTSCHES INSTITUT FÜR UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE WIRTSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG (GERMAN INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH) Pakistan’s Growing Problem With Its China Economic Corridor EU-China Engagement in Humanitarian Aid: Different Approaches, Shared Interests? by Uzair Younus @UzairYounus by Ina Friesen The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has deepened the decades-long Amidst increasing geopolitical tensions strategic relationship between the two Asian between China and the EU, China’s growing nations. But it has also sparked criticism, humanitarian engagement opens an including that it burdens Pakistan with opportunity for the EU to engage with China mountains of debt, allowing China to use in the humanitarian sector. A dialogue that “debt-trap diplomacy” to gain access to takes both parties’ different approaches strategic assets. While some of this criticism towards humanitarian aid into account and is valid, a closer look indicates that concerns searches for common ground could open the around debt sustainability, tepid economic door towards possible cooperation. This growth and overall economic and social Briefing Paper maps out the characteristics instability in Pakistan predate CPEC. (6 p.) of Chinese humanitarian aid and outlines two areas on which the EU’s tentative steps ROBERT SCHUMAN CENTRE FOR towards a dialogue with China could focus. ADVANCED STUDIES (6 p.)
EU- Japan Connectivity Promises JAPAN INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL by Marie Söderberg AFFAIRS Answering Beijing’s Growing Assertiveness This paper presents a background of EU- Beyond the Senkakus: Balancing Japan- Japan relations and discusses the China Relations development of recent years by a focus on the Partnership on Sustainable Connectivity by Valérie Niquet @VNiquet and Quality Infrastructure. It analyses the meaning of Infrastructure Connectivity both China is pursuing with increased for EU and Japan, as well as for China, and assertiveness a strategy of coercion to put the implementation phase of the Partnership. the onus of potential escalation on Tokyo. (10 p.) The vague and ambiguous nature of this
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SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS strategic power play makes it all the more and notes that recent unprecedented political dangerous and complex. This policy brief repression completely shattered many years looks at how the Japanese Government can of efforts to improve the investment climate be active and in control of situational and to achieve a partial liberalisation of the developments, and not just reactive, without economy. The risk of the Belarusian going as far as sparking a major incident in economy collapsing increases significantly in the East China Sea. (8 p.) 2021. (7 p.)
INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR LATIN AMERICA AND MIGRATION POLICY DEVELOPMENT THE CARIBBEAN Regional Overview: The Pacific EUROPEAN UNION INSTITUTE FOR by Alexandre Porteret SECURITY STUDIES
The Pacific overview of diaspora Implementing the Peace Agreement in engagement is one of a six-part regional Colombia: Challenges for Peacebuilding series analysing diaspora engagement and Reconciliation around the world. It draws on knowledge gathered during the mapping of 12 Pacific by Johanna Amaya-Panche @amayoap countries, including relevant policy and This brief examines the challenges of institutional frameworks, trends, good implementing the peace agreement between practices and recommendations at regional the Colombian government and the level. (11 p.) Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) in Colombia and explores how the INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR European Union can support the MIGRATION POLICY DEVELOPMENT implementation process and reconciliation efforts. (8 p.) Regional Overview: Asia by Fanny Tittel-Mosser INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR MIGRATION POLICY DEVELOPMENT The Asia overview of diaspora engagement is one of a six-part regional series analysing Regional Overview: Latin America and the diaspora engagement around the world. It Caribbean draws on knowledge gathered during the mapping of 16 countries in Asia to study by Fanny Tittel-Mosser relevant policy and institutional frameworks, The LAC overview of diaspora engagement trends, good practices and is one of a six-part regional series analysing recommendations at regional level. (16 p.) diaspora engagement around the world. It draws on knowledge gathered during the EASTERN PARTNERSHIP mapping of 24 LAC countries to study relevant policy and institutional frameworks, OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH trends, good practices and (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES) recommendations at regional level. (13 p.)
The Cost of a Police State: Belarus’s Economic Problems by Kamil Kłysiński
Although the COVID-19 pandemic did trigger a recession in Belarus, the greatest blow to the economy has been its deep political crisis. The paper analyses the country’s economic problems, such as budget deficit, increased debt and a decline in investments,
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MIDDLE EAST / NORTH AFRICA INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR (MENA) MIGRATION POLICY DEVELOPMENT Regional Overview: Eastern Europe and ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI) Central Asia
The Transatlantic Dimension of Europe's by Fanny Tittel-Mosser Nuclear Diplomacy With Iran: 2003–21 The EECA overview of diaspora by Riccardo Alcaro @Ric_Alcaro engagement is one of a six-part regional series analysing diaspora engagement The authors claim that facilitating US–Iranian around the world. It draws on knowledge engagement in nuclear diplomacy is gathered during the mapping of 10 EECA instrumental to securing European long-term countries to study relevant policy and interests in supporting the non-proliferation institutional frameworks, trends, good regime and preventing a major military practices and recommendations at regional confrontation in the Gulf. The paper analyses level. (12 p.) the European tactical adjustments in pursuit of this strategic goal and the possible future development under the Biden administration. WESTERN BALKANS (28 p.) WIENER INSTITUT FÜR INTERNATIONALE WIRTSCHAFTSVERGLEICHE (THE VIENNA INSTITUT MONTAIGNE INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL La stabilité du Maghreb, un impératif pour ECONOMIC STUDIES) l'Europe Getting Stronger After COVID-19: by Hakim El Karoui @helkaroui Nearshoring Potential in the Western Balkans The fate of France and Europe is closely linked to that of the Maghreb countries. by Branimir Jovanović @bran_che However, the European recovery plan, following the Covid-19 crisis, is not intended This study aims to analyse whether and how to benefit its neighbouring countries. Given the Western Balkan economies could benefit the intertwining of peoples and economies, from near-shoring trends after the COVID-19 the destabilisation of the region as a result of pandemic. It discusses recent trends in the crisis would lead to well-known and foreign investment and presents interviews undesirable chain reactions. It is therefore and case studies of different actors in global urgent that Europe deploys enhanced supply chains. The study concludes that economic and financial cooperation with the Western Balkan economies can indeed Maghreb countries. (FR - 116 p.) benefit from near-shoring trends in the future, but would have to put a focus on skilled labour, invest in education and INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR training, and improve infrastructure and MIGRATION POLICY DEVELOPMENT governance to achieve this. (124 p.) Regional Overview: Middle East EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE by Fanny Tittel-Mosser Balkan Youth Speaks Up About Digital The Middle East overview of diaspora Issues: Lessons for the Conference on the engagement is one of a six-part regional Future of Europe series analysing diaspora engagement around the world. It draws on knowledge by Paul Butcher et al. gathered during the mapping of 5 Middle East countries to study relevant policy and This paper results from a recent experiment in participatory democracy for measure the institutional frameworks, trends, good impact of the internet and social media on practices and recommendations at regional level. (13 p.) young people’s lives and their sociopolitical engagement. This project try to demonstrate
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SECTION 3 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS that the Balkans can operate as a microcosm GROUP FOR LEGAL AND POLITICAL or testing ground for EU initiatives like STUDIES CoFoE. (12 p.) Pitfalls of the Dialogue with Serbia. Why Kosovo Needs a New Negotiation Strategy KÜLÜGYI ÉS KÜLGAZDASÁGI INTÉZET (INSTITUTE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND by Arbër Fetahu TRADE) This paper discusses the weak China’s Increasing Presence in the ICT representation in the Dialogue between Sector in Serbia Kosovo and Serbia and its structural deficiencies that have unveiled the lack of a by Bianka Emese Szabó state platform as a form of consensual This study aims to provide a brief overview of representation in the negotiations with China’s role in Serbia’s ICT sector and which Serbia and how it will be determined on the approach the new government is going to might be a potential source of conflict with Serbia’s other allies. (12 p.) embrace in the future. (11 p.)
NEDERLANDS INSTITUUT VOOR CENTAR ZA EVROPSKE POLITIKE INTERNATIONALE BETREKKINGEN - (EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE) CLINGENDAEL Western Balkan PAR Monitor 2019/2020 Energising EU Enlargement? The Prospects by Miloš Đinđić et al. of the Green Agenda for the Western Balkans The PAR Monitor 2019/2020 is the result of monitoring work performed in 2020 by the by Wouter Zweers @Wouter_Zweers members of the Think for Europe Network, and it represents a compilation report of key This policy brief discusses the Green findings from across the Western Balkans in Agenda for the Western Balkans, which is a the six areas of PAR defined by the promising tool for fostering climate and Principles of Public Administration (SIGMA energy policy measures in the Western principles). (196 p.) Balkans, a region with high vulnerability to climate change risks and little energy diversification away from coal. The brief asks CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND how the Green Agenda can work in the INTERNATIONAL STUDIES interest of both the objective of a climate- neutral continent and the EU accession of The Serbia-Kosovo Normalization Process: the Western Balkan countries. (7 p.) A Temporary U.S. Decoupling by Heather A. Conley et al. RUSSIA Years of engagement by both U.S. and ATLANTIC COUNCIL European policymakers have been largely ineffectual in bringing Serbia and Kosovo The Impact of Western Sanctions on Russia closer to normalization. Taking into account and How They Can Be Made Even More present-day dynamics in both countries and Effective the problems that have beset negotiation efforts to date, this brief outlines a new U.S. by Anders Åslund @anders_aslund et al. strategy toward Serbia and Kosovo. The authors suggest that to break the current This report aims to assess the extent to stasis, the United States should temporarily which Western sanctions, in macroeconomic decouple the joint normalization process, terms, against Russia have been effective creating separate bilateral tracks of and what could be done to make them even engagement with Serbia and Kosovo that more effective. (28 p.) prioritize internal reforms and economic revitalization. (13 p.)
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GROUPE D'ETUDES GEOPOLITIQUES INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES (IFRI) Russian Chairmanship of the Arctic Council: The Awakening of a Giant Le Conseil de l’Arctique à l’heure russe by Emilie Canova @e_canova et al. by Florian Vidal @DrFlorocene
As Russia recently took over the rotating The Russian Arctic has become a strategic presidency of the Arctic Council, this paper space for the geopolitical affirmation of the exposes its national ambitions in the region country: what is now the economic, military but also the opportunity to demonstrate its and political weight of Russia in this region interest in establishing healthy and and what are its springs? (FR - 6 p.) multilateral cooperation between the different members of the Arctic Council. (10 p.) CHINA INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS ЦЕНТЪР ЗА ИЗСЛЕДВАНЕ НА INTERNATIONALES (IFRI) ДЕМОКРАЦИЯТА (CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF DEMOCRACY) Mer de Chine et droit de la mer : le paradoxe chinois Kremlin’s Anti-Democratic Messaging and Disinformation in Europe by Christophe Prazuck
The brief advocates that an effective and all- The South China Sea is not only the scene encompassing response to Russian (and of maritime and territorial disputes between other authoritarian-state) disinformation the riparian countries but also the place of would require an integrated, multi- questioning of the international law of the stakeholder approach based on cooperation sea. This report looks into the strategy of among policy-makers, civil society, and affirmation of power deployed by China in European/international institutional actors. this theatre and concludes that it is Achieving such a whole-of-society approach paradoxical in that it seeks to build a leading to countering Russian disinformation in maritime capacity at the same time as it Europe calls for much more coordination, undermines the foundations of the law of the flexibility, and swiftness of responses. (8 p.) sea - freedom of navigation - which allowed its economic development. (FR - 6 p.)
CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE EGMONT – ROYAL INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Russia in the Mediterranean: Here to Stay The EU and China: Sanctions, Signals, and by Eugene Rumer et al. Interests
Since Russia’s 2015 intervention in Syria, by Sven Biscop alarms have been sounded about the This report queries whether sanctions are Kremlin’s ambitions and military capabilities the most effective way for the EU to speak up in the Mediterranean. The Russian military is for human rights in China. It concludes by now a presence to be reckoned with in the stating that the EU must care for human Eastern Mediterranean. It has complicated rights, but it must also be aware of what is US/NATO planning and operations, and vital and what is not, of where it has leverage Moscow has developed good relationships and where it has not, and use its instruments with important regional powers. According to accordingly. (5 p.) the authors, Moscow’s ambitions in the Mediterranean are more than a matter of its vague pursuit to regain great power status— they are a product of enduring Russian national security requirements. (29 p.)
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INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR Sea, but they are a potent flashpoint for STRATEGIC STUDIES conflict between China and Japan and pose a unique challenge for the US, which is The Evolving Nature of China’s Military treaty-bound to assist Japan in an armed Diplomacy: From Visits to Vaccines conflict. This report addresses key issues that are impeding both the understanding of by Meia Nouwens @MeiaNouwens gray-zone operations in the East China Sea and effective responses by the US-Japan This report seeks to analyse publicly alliance. It also discusses policy options for available data sourced from Mandarin- and improving allied responses and mitigating English-language reporting to build a the potential for a larger conflict in the East nuanced understanding of the People’s China Sea. (46 p.) Liberation Army’s military diplomatic role, its prioritisation of recipients, and the narrative used to frame this activity. It argues that UNITED KINGDOM / BREXIT while gaps remain in the available STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK information about the PLA’s activities, it is (GERMAN INSTITUTE FOR clear that the PLA conducted a global INTERNATIONAL AND SECURITY AFFAIRS) diplomatic effort through a variety of activities, where possible, across Belt and Das schottische Unabhängigkeitsstreben Road Initiative (BRI) countries that were und die EU : der lange Weg zum already strategically important actors to Referendum und die kritischen Fragen für China. (16 p.) die Europäische Union
BRUEGEL by Nicolai von Ondarza @NvOndarza
How Difficult Is China’s Business The Scottish regional elections in May 2021 Environment for European and American effected a combined majority for parties Companies? favouring a second independence referendum. The consent to it within the by Uri Dadush et al. British parliament, however, is less likely this time and competencies of the Scottish Contrary to some narratives, China's Parliament are disputed. The call to business practices have improved, with a independence is closely linked to Brexit and business environment that is generally more the Scottish hope to re-establish a favourable than that in other large countries membership in the EU, which may draw the at similar levels of development. Drawing on EU into the issue. But the author surveys of companies and international recommends that EU leaders continue to comparisons, we show that – contrary to the view Scottish independence as an internal prevailing narrative – China’s business issue of the UK. (DE - 8 p.) practices have improved significantly in recent years. China’s business environment JACQUES DELORS INSTITUTE (NOTRE is today generally more favourable than that EUROPE) in other large countries at similar levels of development and, in some though certainly Les ressorts de l’indépendantisme not all aspects, is in line with the OECD Écossais average. (21 p.) by Aziliz Gouez
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ASIAN RESEARCH This paper offers a decryption of this “separatist” version of Scottish nationalism, Murky Waters in the East China Sea: carried by the SNP since its creation in 1934. Chinese Gray-Zone Operations and US- It specifies the main mechanisms of the Japan Alliance Coordination contemporary nationalist project while by Jonathan W. Greenert (ed.) attempting to shed light on the historical and intellectual developments which have Tensions in the East China Sea are often presided over the progress of this project. overshadowed by those in the South China (FR - 15 p.)
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INSTITUT DE RELATIONS need to thrive in a rapidly changing INTERNATIONALES ET STRATÉGIQUES economy. (22 p.) (IRIS)
Defence Innovation: New Models And BROOKINGS INSTITUTION Procurement Implications - The British Case US Military Options to Enhance Arctic by Trevor Taylor Defense by Timothy Greenhaw et al. The paper addresses the evolution of policy stances on innovation, including in the 2021 In Arctic, the effects of global climate change Defence & Security Industrial Strategy, are increasing access to previously itemises the organisational arrangements inaccessible areas and important transit and that have been developed, and analyses the trade routes and so increase strategic areas of technology seen as most significant. competition. This paper study how the U.S. Funding issues are discussed and five military starting to pay attention to this region approaches to stimulating innovation are and make suggestions to improve overall identified. (18 p.) U.S. military posture and readiness. (15 p.)
NEDERLANDS INSTITUUT VOOR INTERNATIONALE BETREKKINGEN - CLINGENDAEL UK Integrated Review: a Basis for More Euro-British Cooperation? by Rem Korteweg @remkorteweg
This report discusses the UK’s Integrated Review, which is a blueprint for British foreign and security policy in the post-Brexit era. The report claims that the document gives a clear sense of the UK’s ambitions and priorities in the post-Brexit environment, and raises questions about the UK’s relationship with Europe. (7 p.)
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
NEW AMERICA FOUNDATION
Advancing Youth Apprenticeship in Indiana
The paper argues that for generations of young Americans, the promise of opportunity has been rooted in a simple premise: work hard in high school, earn a diploma, and move on to college or into a job. In either case, most who completed high school could expect to support themselves, with prospects being particularly dire for students of colour. Restoring the link between American education and economic mobility demands more high-quality postsecondary options that provide young people with the foundational skills, experiences, and credentials they
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GERMANY
INSTITUT DER DEUTSCHEN WIRTSCHAFT (IW, KÖLN) GERMAN ECONOMIC INSTITUTE
Inequality Revisited : An International Comparison With a Special Focus on the Case of Germany
by Judith Niehues et al.
This report summarizes the latest findings on SECTION 4 - EU MEMBER the development and levels of global income STATES and wealth inequality and puts special emphasize on the situation in Germany. It FRANCE finds that net income inequality has increased after the German reunification, but INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS since 2005 there has merely been no change INTERNATIONALES (IFRI) in the distribution of net incomes in Germany. Overall, income increased in the last years. France vs. Turkey in the EastMed A Unfortunately, the Covid-19 pandemic has Geopolitical Rivalry Between a "Keeper" of put an end to this trend. The consequences the Old Order and a Challenging Emergent of the pandemic might pose a threat to future Power of the fight of the fight against poverty, especially in developing countries. ( 51 p.) by Jana Jabbour @jabbour_jana
This report is a sharp diagnosis of the INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS Franco-Turkish crisis and concludes that the INTERNATIONALES (IFRI) crisis is aggravated by two developments: 1) Quelle gauche en Allemagne ? Le parti Die the power void created by the United States’ Linke en pleine crise identitaire relative retreat from the region, a void that has set off a struggle for influence that pits by Thorsten Holzhauser traditional powers against emergent powers; and 2) the fading away of Turkey’s EU This paper takes a closer look at Die Linke, horizon, which has made Ankara less its development, its most important cooperative and pushed it into a policy of representatives, and its current situation disruption. (12 p.) before the 2021 federal election. (FR - 30 p.)
GROUPE D'ÉTUDES GÉOPOLITIQUES INSTITUT DE RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES ET STRATÉGIQUES A Contingent Economic Strategy for the (IRIS) Next Phase Defence Innovation: New Models and by Olivier Blanchard @ojblanchard1 et al. Procurement Implications - The German Case
The large-scale recovery plan adopted by by Christian Mölling @Ce_Moll et al. the American congress under the Biden administration and the subsequent increase This report examines Germany's defence. in growth forecasts has set off a debate in There is a clear “firewall” between civilian and France and Europe. The authors look at defence research. Government and armed whether we should do the same. (7 p.) forces recognize technological progress and potential military applications as a central feature of the development of the armed forces for the requirements of future warfare. Current reform efforts focus on the digital sphere and related technologies and profit
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SECTION 4 - EU MEMBER STATES from the benign financial situation of the last interest of the Federal Republic and not by years. While European initiatives so far have rules of origin that are often unrealistic. This not played a significant role, this might change requires effective integration of development if the financial situation would worsen. (17 p.) and foreign policy instruments with those of foreign trade policy, both within Germany KONRAD-ADENAUER-STIFTUNG and at European level. At a time of growing political uncertainty, legalization of economic Potenziale deutsch-österreichischer relations through bilateral, pluri- and Kooperation multilateral trade agreements is of central importance. (DE – 13 p.) by Julian Plottka @JPlottka et al.
The crises and challenges are increasing. To ITALY counter these, the EU needs effective EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN decision-making processes. Minilateral RELATIONS formats are suitable as a short-term solution to facilitate decisions in the EU. Since Rome’s Moment: Draghi, Multilateralism, Germany and Austria share European and Italy’s New Strategy political interests, this relationship has the potential to serve as a bridge between by Teresa Coratella @TaszuC et al. various minilateral formats. This publication analyses how this potential can be used and This report discusses how the Italian how Germany and Austria should jointly government is shifting the priorities of Italian provide impetus to shape Europe. (DE - 9 p.) foreign policy towards the EU, the transatlantic relationship, and DEUTSCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR multilateralism. It claims that Draghi’s Italy AUSWÄRTIGE POLITIK (GERMAN could act as a bridge between competing COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS) great powers. In doing so, Italy has an opportunity to position itself closer to the Die Schuldenbremse und der europäische Franco-German engine and to help construct Fiskalkurs nach Covid-19 a multilateral system in which the EU and the US are equal partners. (18 p.) by Shahin Vallée @Shahinvallee et al. Germany’s plan to return to its debt brake NETHERLANDS creates a serious risk of premature fiscal tightening. Given that the fiscal divide NEDERLANDS INSTITUUT VOOR between Europe and the US will widen INTERNATIONALE BETREKKINGEN - sharply in 2021, a hasty return to European CLINGENDAEL and German fiscal rules would stifle recovery and undermine efforts to rebuild transatlantic Klimaatbeleid in de formatie 2021: Europa ties in trade and macroeconomic cooperation. bepaalt de nationale speelruimte steeds This paper proposes several practical options nadrukkelijker to attenuate the fiscal drag associated with a by Paul Hofhuis return to the debt brake and calls for a broad debate on its reform. (8 p.) This report discusses the Dutch climate policy, which is an urgent topic for the current INSTITUT FÜR WELTWIRTSCHAFT KIEL cabinet formation. It states that a new Cabinet (KIEL INSTITUTE FOR THE WORLD must take into account the increasing ECONOMY) European influence on national climate policy. Perspektiven für eine zukunftsorientierte Current developments offer opportunities to deutsche Außenwirtschaftspolitik convert the current policy, which is mainly aimed at ambition, into effective and by Gabriel Felbermayer @GFelbermayr et al. supported climate policy. (NL - 9 p.)
In the authors opinion, German foreign trade promotion must be guided by the strategic
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MISCELLANEOUS
MISCELLANEOUS
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
Digitale Barrierefreiheit : ein Leitfaden für zugänglichere digitale Angebote by Taner Aydın
This paper constitutes a small collection of guidelines for the accessibility of digital products. It doesn't claim to be exhaustive, but is instead conceived as a starting point. (DE - 28 p.)
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