A Revised Logistic Regression Equation and an Automated Procedure for Mapping the Probability of a Stream Flowing Perennially in Massachusetts

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A Revised Logistic Regression Equation and an Automated Procedure for Mapping the Probability of a Stream Flowing Perennially in Massachusetts A Revised Logistic Regression Equation and an Automated Procedure for Mapping the Probability of a Stream Flowing Perennially in Massachusetts By Gardner C. Bent and Peter A. Steeves Part 1. A Revised Logistic Regression Equation for Estimating the Probability of a Stream Flowing Perennially in Massachusetts By Gardner C. Bent Part 2. An Automated Procedure for Mapping Perennially Flowing Streams By Peter A. Steeves, Gardner C. Bent, and Jennifer R. Hill (Horizon Systems Corporation) In cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection Bureau of Resource Protection Wetlands and Waterways Program Scientific Investigations Report 2006–5031 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Department of the Interior Gale A. Norton, Secretary U.S. Geological Survey P. Patrick Leahy, Acting Director U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2006 For product and ordering information: World Wide Web: http://www.usgs.gov/pubprod Telephone: 1-888-ASK-USGS For more information on the USGS—the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment: World Wide Web: http://www.usgs.gov Telephone: 1-888-ASK-USGS Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Although this report is in the public domain, permission must be secured from the individual copyright owners to reproduce any copyrighted materials contained within this report. Suggested citation: Bent, G.C., and Steeves, P.A., 2006, A revised logistic regression equation and an automated procedure for mapping the probability of a stream flowing perennially in Massachusetts: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2006–5031, 107 p. iii Contents Abstract ...........................................................................................................................................................1 Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................2 Purpose and Scope ..............................................................................................................................4 Definitions of Intermittent and Perennial Streams ..........................................................................4 Related Intermittent and Perennial Stream Studies .......................................................................4 Part 1. A Revised Logistic Regression Equation for Estimating the Probability of a Stream Flowing Perennially in Massachusetts ...........................................................................7 Description of Study Area ............................................................................................................................7 Database Development.................................................................................................................................7 Factors that Affect the Intermittent or Perennial Status of Streams ...........................................7 Site Selection.........................................................................................................................................8 Comparison to Previous Stream-Status Observations .................................................................10 Selection and Measurement of Basin Characteristics .........................................................................11 Logistic Regression Equation.....................................................................................................................17 Development ........................................................................................................................................20 Confidence-Interval Estimation ........................................................................................................23 Verification ...........................................................................................................................................25 Application ...........................................................................................................................................25 Probability Cutpoint ............................................................................................................................26 Comparison of Equation to Other Methods of Determining the Intermittent or Perennial Status of Streams .........................................................................................................31 Limitations of the Logistic Regression Equation and Areas for Further Study ..................................33 Part 2. An Automated Procedure for Mapping Perennially Flowing Streams ..................................35 Mapping the Intermittent and Perennial Reaches of Streams ............................................................35 National Hydrography Dataset and Geographic Information System Tools .............................35 Automated Mapping Procedure .......................................................................................................35 Shawsheen River Basin Map Example ...........................................................................................37 Limitations .....................................................................................................................................................41 Summary and Conclusions .........................................................................................................................41 Acknowledgments .......................................................................................................................................43 References Cited..........................................................................................................................................43 Appendix 1. Summary Statistics for Selected Logistic Regression Analyses Tested for Use in Development of an Equation for Estimating the Probability of a Stream Flowing Perennially in Massachusetts .....................................................................................105 CD-ROM [In pocket] Appendix 2. The Intermittent and Perennial Status of Stream Reaches Estimated for the Shaw- sheen River Basin by Using a Logistic Regression Equation and Automated Mapping Procedure iv Figures 1–3. Maps showing— 1. Locations of long-term continuous (index) streamflow-gaging stations used to estimate low-flow durations at nearby field-visited stream sites in the development and verification of the logistic regression equation for estimating the probability of a stream flowing perennially in Massachusetts, late July through early September 2001 ...........................................................................................3 2. Locations of field-visited stream sites designated as perennial streams used in development of the logistic regression equation for estimating the probability of a stream flowing perennially, late July through early September 2001 ...............12 3. Locations of field-visited stream sites designated as intermittent streams used in development of the logistic regression equation for estimating the probability of a stream flowing perennially in, late July through early September 2001 ...........14 4. Histograms showing the distribution of the estimated flow durations on the dates of field visits at the A, 351 stream sites throughout Massachusetts; B, 285 stream sites with drainage areas less than 2.00 square miles throughout Massachusetts; C, 28 stream sites in the Shawsheen River Basin, northeastern Massachusetts; and D, 84 stream sites in the South Coastal Basin, southeastern Massachusetts. ................16 5. Graphs showing observed percentage of perennial-stream sites by drainage-area range A, statewide; B, eastern region; and C, western region ...........................................21 6. Boxplots showing the distribution of A, drainage area; B, areal percentage of sand and gravel deposits; and C, areal percentage of forest land for intermittent- and perennial-stream sites in the eastern region of Massachusetts (ER), western region of Massachusetts (WR), and throughout Massachusetts (MA). ........................................24 7–8. Maps showing— 7. Locations of field-visited stream sites designated as intermittent or perennial used in verification of the logistic regression equation for estimating the probability of a stream flowing perennially in the Shawsheen River Basin, late July and early August 2002. ......................................................................................27 8. Locations of field-visited stream sites designated as intermittent or perennial used in verification of the logistic regression equation for estimating the probability of a stream flowing perennially in the South Coastal Basin, mid-July through early September 1999. .......................................................................28 9. Flow chart showing the steps of the automated mapping procedure for mapping intermittent and perennial stream reaches ............................................................................36 10–11. Graphs showing— 10. The calculated A, probability of a stream flowing perennially; B, drainage area; C, areal percentage of sand and gravel deposits; and D, areal percentage of forest land along seven selected headwater (first-order) stream reaches in the Shawsheen River Basin,
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