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GREENING the GRID: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy Into India's Electric Grid, Vol. I—National Study

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GREENING the GRID: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy Into India's Electric Grid, Vol. I—National Study GREENING THE GRID: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India’s Electric Grid, Vol. I—National Study GREENING THE GRID PROGRAM A Joint Initiative by USAID and Ministry of Power JUNE 2017 This report was produced by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Power System Operation Corporation, and the United States Agency for International Development. Prepared by Disclaimer This report is made possible by the support of the American People through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents of this report are the sole responsibility of National Renewable Energy Laboratory and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government. This work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308 with Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC, the Manager and Operator of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. This work was supported by the Director, Office of Science, Office of Basic Energy Sciences, of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231 with Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. GREENING THE GRID: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India’s Electric Grid, Vol. I—National Study David Palchak,* Jaquelin Cochran,* Ali Ehlen, Brendan McBennett, Michael Milligan, Ilya Chernyakhovskiy, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Ranjit Deshmukh,** Nikit Abhyankar, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) Sushil Kumar Soonee, S.R. Narasimhan, Mohit Joshi, Power System Operation Corporation Limited (POSOCO) Priya Sreedharan, U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Accelerating the transformation of power systems * Co-lead authors for Volumes I & II ** Co-lead author for Volume I PATHWAYS TO INTEGRATE 175 GW OF RE ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The project team is greatly indebted to the many participating agencies that have supported this work. The study was funded by U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) as a part of its Greening the Grid program. Other sponsors included U.S. Departments of Energy and State and the World Bank (Energy Sector Management Assistance Program). We would like to especially thank Secretary P K Pujari and Joint Secretary Jyoti Arora for their guidance. We would also like to acknowledge the contributions of K V S Baba, R K Verma, Sushanta Chatterjee, Shruti Deorah, Michael Satin, Mark Newton, Allen Eisendrath, Jennifer Leisch, Silvia Martinez Romero, Martin Schroeder, Simon Stolp, Surbhi Goyal, Daniel Noll, and Nate Blair for shaping this project. For their thoughtful reviews, we would like to thank Paul Denholm, Trieu Mai, Jessica Katz, and Doug Arent. We would also like to thank Shilpa Malhotra, Kakali Guha, and Karla LeComte for their assistance. The project team includes the following: PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR GRID INTEGRATION REVIEW COMMITTEE Jaquelin Cochran, NREL National Grid Integration Review Committee TECHNICAL LEAD Joint Secretary Jyoti Arora, Chair, Ministry of Power David Palchak, NREL, Ranjit Deshmukh, Berkeley Lab (Volume I) K V S Baba, S S Barpanda, Minaxi Garg, S C Saxena, R K Porwal, Kavita Parihar, POSOCO PROJECT STEERING GROUP Pankaj Batra, Jaydeb Bandyopadhyay, K V S Baba and Sushil Kumar Soonee, POSOCO, Central Electricity Authority Priya Sreedharan and Monali Zeya Hazra, USAID Subir Sen, Power Grid Corporation of India Limited CORE MODELING TEAM Ali Ehlen and Brendan McBennett, NREL, Veena Sinha, Ministry of New and Renewable Energy S.R. Narasimhan and Mohit Joshi, POSOCO Sorbojit Pal, Niti Aayog OTHER CONTRIBUTORS Sudhir Kapur, Country Strategy (representing Michael Milligan, Ilya Chernyakhovskiy, Jennifer Daw, Confederation of Indian Industry) Michael Elchinger, Jonathan Duckworth, Caroline Draxl, Avi Purkayastha, Ella Zhou, Andrew Weekley, Reji Kumar Pillai, Akshay Ahuja, India Smart Emily Evans, Karin Haas, Scott Gossett, Karen Petersen, Grid Forum Billy Roberts, Stacy Buchanan, Liz Craig, Bri-Mathias Hodge, Aaron Habte, Anthony Lopez, and Nick Grue, NSM Rao, Suzlon Energy Limited NREL Ashwin Gambhir, Prayas (Energy Group) Nikit Abhyankar, Berkeley Lab Deepak Gupta, Disha Agarwal, Shakti Sustainable Raj Kumar Anumasula, L. Sharath Chand, Energy Foundation G. Chitrankshi, Madhukar Goodelli, Riza Naqvi, Somes Bandyopadhyay, NTPC Limited (formally National Manoj Thakur, Biswajit Mondal, Jerin Jacob, S.P. Kumar, Thermal Power Corporation) N. Nallarasan, POSOCO V K Agrawal, Dheeraj Jain, ReGen Powertech Pardeep Jindal, Shivani Sharma, Central Electricity Authority Ishan Nagpal, ReNew Power Kashish Bhambhani, Chinmay Sharma, Power Grid Atulya Kumar Naik, Solar Energy Corporation Corporation of India Limited (POWERGRID) of India Limited Dharmesh Kalsaria, G.J. Mistry, Gujarat Energy Sanjay Mathur, Rajasthan Rajya Vidyut Prasaran Transmission Corporation Limited (GETCO) Nigam Limited P. Murugavelan, P. Rajagunanidhi, Tamil Nadu Rajesh Kumar Mediratta, Indian Energy Exchange Transmission Corporation Ranjit Bharvirkar, Regulatory Assistance Project M.D. Imran Khan, Amit U. Vala, M.A.Q Siddiqui, Maharashtra State Load Despatch Centre (SLDC) Rita Roy Choudhury, Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry Swathi Vani, Mohan Madhu, Karnataka SLDC P.V. Satya Ramesh, Andhra Pradesh SLDC Tarun Gaur, Rajasthan SLDC PATHWAYS TO INTEGRATE 175 GW OF RE Southern Region Grid Integration Western Region Grid Integration Review Committee Review Committee G Anbunesan, V. Suresh, Sanyasi Naidu J., P Mukhopadhyay, VK Shrivastava, A Gartia, S Pushpa, Southern Regional Load Despatch Centre, POSOCO Vivek Pandey, Chandan Kumar, Pradeep Sanodiya, Western Regional Load Despatch Centre, POSOCO A.K.V. Bhaskar, Anil Thomas, Southern Region Power Committee B.B. Mehta, Gujarat SLDC Kondala Rao, Andhra Pradesh SLDC Dipak Patel, GETCO K. Kanchan Babu, P. V. Satya Ramesh, R. Nagaraja Rajiv Kr. Mital, Subhas G Kelkar, Maharashtra State Swamy, V.Sreedhar Reddy, K. Venkata Krishna Reddy, Electricity Transmission Company Limited Transmission Corporation of Andhra Pradesh Limited Sanjay Kulkarni, Maharashtra State Load Manjunath, Chandrashekharaiah S.B, D. Chethan, Despatch Centre K Thyagaraj, Karnataka Power Transmission Corporation Limited Nitin Malkan, CLP India G. Jayanthi, N. Senthil Kumar, T. Selvarajan, Sonu Karekar, Reliance Infrastructure P.R. Muralidharan, M. Rajagopalan, Tamil Nadu Pulin Shah, Suzlon Energy Limited Transmission Corporation Limited Shantanu Dixit, Prayas (Energy Group) K. Kasthurirangaian, Indian Wind Power Association Zakir Khan, M. Rajagopalan, Wartsila A.G. Rangaraj, National Institute of Wind Energy Thatra Bhaskaran, Vishwas Shrikhande, Tata Power B. Rajendra Kumar, NTPC Limited (formally National Thermal Power Corporation) K. Khobragade, Welspun Naresh Panchal, Suzlon Energy Limited A.K. Jain, Deepti Shiddam, S. Paul, NTPC Limited (formally National Thermal Power Corporation) Deepak Sagi, Amol Kolwalkar, GE Global Research Sandhya Sundararagavan, Harshid Sridhar, CSTEP (Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy) C. N. Raghupathi, Infosys M. Rajagopalan, Wartsila India Limited LIST OF ACRONYMS ATC available transfer capacity CEA Central Electricity Authority CERC Central Electricity Regulatory Commission CTU central transmission utility DA day-ahead ER Eastern region GHI global horizontal irradiance GW gigawatt IPP independent power producer INR India Rupee LSE load serving entity MIP mixed-integer programming MMT metric tonne MNRE Ministry of New and Renewable Energy MW megawatt MWh megawatt-hour NER Northeastern region NR Northern region NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory NSRDB National Solar Radiation Database PLF plant load factor POSOCO Power System Operation Corporation POWERGRID Power Grid Corporation of India Limited PPA power purchase agreement PV photovoltaic RE renewable energy RLDC Regional Load Dispatch Center RPO renewable purchase obligation RT real-time SCADA supervisory control and data acquisition SLDC State Load Dispatch Center SR Southern region USAID U.S. Agency for International Development USE unserved energy WR Western region WRF Weather and Research Forecasting i ABSTRACT The use of renewable energy (RE) sources, primarily wind and solar generation, is poised to grow significantly within the Indian power system. The Government of India has established a target of 175 gigawatts (GW) of installed RE capacity by 2022, including 60 GW of wind and 100 GW of solar, up from 29 GW wind and 9 GW solar at the beginning of 2017. Using advanced weather and power system modeling made for this project, the study team is able to explore operational impacts of meeting India’s RE targets and identify actions that may be favorable for integration. Our primary tool is a detailed production cost model, which simulates optimal scheduling and dispatch of available generation in a future year (2022) by minimizing total production costs subject to physical, operational, and market constraints. Our team comprises a core group from the Power System Operation Corporation, Ltd. (POSOCO), which is the national grid operator (with representation from the National, Southern, and Western Regional Load Dispatch Centers) under Ministry of Power, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab), and a broader modeling team that includes Central Electricity Authority (CEA), POWERGRID (the central transmission utility, CTU), and State Load Dispatch Centers in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Rajasthan,
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