What is Happening to the East?

Dr Paikiasothy Saravanamuttu Military victory, though yet elusive, is still being projected as imminent and certain amidst the massive and unprecedented rains and mud and misery of the north. Mr Prabhakaran’s annual speech gave no indications that he had the capacity to spring any surprises any more to reverse this and sounded pathetic in the main, passages of defiance notwithstanding. There is no shying away from the conclusion that even if this phase of war is to end up in yet another protracted stalemate, the LTTE has literally and metaphorically speaking, miles to claw back militarily, territorially and politically to regain the 2002 balance of power. Without the LTTE as the dominant political actor of yore, what happens to and in the north and east?

This is why what is happening in the east is a cause for serious concern as to the prospects for post conflict peace, security and reconciliation. What needs to be reiterated as far as the east is concerned is that it is supposed to have been liberated from the LTTE a year ago; it also has a provincial council and chief minister, elected albeit in a contested election. Moreover, there is a large - scale development plan for the east under the title of the Eastern Awakening. On the face of it there should be no reason as to why it should not be glad, confident morning in the east again as the title of the development programme boldly proclaims. The prevailing situation in the province, however, is one of creeping anarchy and high levels of tension and insecurity. And the regime does not seem willing or able to do anything about it, apart from provide amateurish rebuttals of international human rights reports, like that of the Us based Human Rights Watch, spelling out the gravity of the situation in the province. The statistics of violence speak for themselves. In the month of November alone there were some 50 odd killings in the province that were recorded by the Police. On the 26 and 27th of November alone, 23 persons were killed, allegedly by persons on motor –bikes without number plates. The Police appear to be unable to do anything about this or to provide further information. According to some media reports, despite these motorbikes being seen by journalists, the Police deny their existence. However, in a telling reflection of the security situation in the province, one media report states that Police in Eravur on condition of anonymity, allege that the killings are being carried out by various Tamil political parties, including the Karuna faction of the TMVP. There are those in the Rajapakse regime that want to make out that this is the work of the LTTE. Were this to be the case, it is clear that the LTTE has a presence in the East and the ability to operate with impunity. Were it not to be the case, it is equally clear that the sustenance of the Karuna/Pillayan rivalry is creating a space for it. Whilst Pillayan launched a hunger strike in protest at the killings, the security forces in a massive operation in the Batticaloa district “screened” 12,000 persons and detained just over a 120 for suspected links with the LTTE. It is clear that the open and armed hostilities between the Karuna and Pillayan factions of the TMVP are a major source of the violence and instability. The Rajapaksa regime’s perverse stratagem of playing one off against the other, or of using one to balance the other, risks losing the political capital that could accrue from association with both of them. Pillayan is on record as saying that the assassination of his personal secretary was not the work of the LTTE, hinting broadly that it was the work of the Karuna faction and its associates. He is also on record as saying that he has not been given the power and resources due to him as Chief Minister of the Province. Consequently his ability to engage in any meaningful developmental work and contribute towards maintaining the rule of law and law and order in the province is negligible. As this column has warned before, he could be turned into a Perumal or be forced into the arms of the LTTE. Pillayan wants the full powers entitled to him as the Chief Minister of the Eastern Province, including the police powers that have never been devolved to any province. Karuna on the other hand, is of the opinion that this is not necessary. Is it the case that the regime is using Karuna to front it’s policy of undermining the Thirteenth Amendment and devolution at the same time as it claims to want to implement it, for the benefit of the international community and India in particular? On another front, Pillayan in protest at the killings withdrew TMVP participation in the APRC only to have Karuna insist that he would be sending TMVP representatives to the forum. Who leads the TMVP and which leader and faction does the Rajapaksa regime support? Compounding this violence is that which claimed the life of Dr Palitha Pathmakumara, resulting in Sinhala doctors withdrawing from duties in the east and a 30 % reduction in the number of doctors in the Batticaloa Teaching Hospital. The east it would seem, has reawakened to internecine warfare and renewed instability and insecurity.

The President has declared that the pillars of his policy for peace and reconciliation and unity are democracy, demilitarization, disarmament and devolution. Is there any reason as to why the east has been excluded from this ?

of the Rajapakse regime in sustaining the rivalry between Pillayan and Karuna in a perverse divide and