Pdf | 794.35 Kb

1153531 Peace Confidence 53 Index Page 1 Top-line Results

CONTENTS

• INTRODUCTION 02

• KEY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS 03

• FINDINGS AT A GLANCE 07

• PEACE CONFIDENCE INDEX (PCI) 15

TOP-LINE RESULTS

IMPORTANT ISSUES 15

SOLUTIONS 16

COMMITMENT 20

CURRENT SECURITY CONDITION 25

SRI LANKA 27

TAMIL NADU & INDIA 28

THE VERDICT 32

13TH AMENDMENT 34

THE PRESIDENT 36

COST OF LIVING 39

THE BUDGET 40

GLOBAL CREDIT CRUNCH 42

VANNI 43

THE EAST 44

KARUNA AMMAN 46

BARACK OBAMA 50

• ANNEX 52

INTRODUCTION

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study is two-fold. One is to develop a numerical indicator of the level of public confidence in the peace process using a set of standardized questions, which remain unchanged with each wave. The other is to use a set of questions related to recent social, economic and political developments in order to gauge public opinion on the peace process, which by definition will change from one wave to another.

Such information, collected over a period of time, will provide civil society and policy makers a useful barometer of Sri Lankan polity’s opinions, and ensure that such collective opinions are given due importance and incorporated into the policy debate.

SCOPE & METHODOLOGY

The survey is carried out using a structured questionnaire administered through face-to-face interviews amongst a 1642 randomly selected sample. This survey was conducted in 20 administrative districts, excluding the North due to the escalation of violence. Data is weighted to reflect the actual ethnographic composition of the districts in which the sample was surveyed.

This is the thirtieth wave of the PCI study, which was first conducted in May 2001.This publication presents only the top-line results of the November 2008 survey.

The results of these thirty waves offer us data for a comparative study on changing public opinion regarding key issues, ranging from perceptions of war and peace to current political developments. The results are subjected to a 3% margin of error.

** This particular wave of the PCI only covers the Sinhala, Tamil, Muslim and the Up- Country Tamil communities in the areas outside Northern Province. The Tamil sample, drawn from the cities of Ampara, Trincomalee, Batticaloa and Colombo were surveyed using a non-random sampling technique. Therefore, all findings that reference the Tamils cannot be generalized to the entire community.

Key National and International Developments July 2008 – November 2008

JULY 2008

• The 15th SAARC Summit which got off the ground in Colombo yesterday is set to adopt a series of measures with the main focus on a joint approach to combating terrorism, maximising energy and water resources, food security, poverty alleviation in addition to several other key issues concerning the region. .-Daily News, July 28

AUGUST 2008

• With the Vanni area under its control rapidly shrinking, the LTTE Friday fiercely resisted a multi- pronged ground assault on Mallavi, west of A9 road, situated along the Mankulam-Vellankulam road leading to the north-western coast.-The Island, August, 03 • US Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher yesterday reiterated his government’s support for the Sri Lankan Government to bring about a solution to the North-East crisis. The solution, he said, should be acceptable to both Sinhalese and Tamils. "We support counter terrorism since we need to see the benefits of democracy extended to all people, and this must be done fairly," said Boucher at a press conference in Colombo yesterday. -The Island, August, 04 • President Mahinda Rajapaksa yesterday thanked all who contributed to the successful conclusion of the 15th SAARC Summit in Colombo. The President in a message said: “I am aware that arrangements for the SAARC Summit involved the participation of many Government agencies and of the private sector institutions and individuals, who shared their skills and expertise in the organising of events and activities directly related to the Summit and the co-events of SAARC. -The Island, August, 06 • Prime Minister Rathnasiri Wickramanayaka urged the people of the North Central Province to ensure a landslide victory for the UPFA Government and express their solidarity with the gallant ‘War Heroes’ who have confined the terrorists to Killinochchi and Mulaitivu only.-Daily News, August, 08 • UNP chief ministerial candidate for the North-Central provincial council elections Major-General (rtd) Janaka Perera has refused to accept the eight government appointed security personnel for his personal safety. He insists that he be allowed to pick the eight personnel as he could not trust those appointed by the government, the North-Central province UNP Election Campaign Unit said. -The Island, August, 07 • The United Nations has turned down the LTTE request for the declaration of an immediate ceasefire, Government Defence spokesman Keheliya Rambukwella said yesterday. The LTTE had made the request to the UN on Thursday (7) and the UN had informed the Government of Sri Lanka about the request. -The Island, August, 09 • The LTTE is in the process of expanding a second runway capable of accommodating heavy aircraft in Mullaitivu as government troops backed by air, artillery and armour battle through fortified enemy defences on the western and eastern flanks. The military has irrefutable evidence that the LTTE is engaged in the construction of the air strip in spite of the unprecedented army build-up on the multiple Vanni fronts where ground forces have inflicted massive losses on the Tigers. -The Island, August, 15

• The Janatha Vimukhi Peramuna and the National Bhikkhu Front yesterday condemned the Government for using police force to chase away of thousands of University students who gathered in Colombo on Thursday evening to hand over a petition to the President. A JVP statement said "We believe that Thursday’s demonstration was the maximum that was left for the student population to express their grievances through democratic means. -The Island, August, 16 • The army on the Welioya front has brought another LTTE facility under its control. The 59 Division has secured the underground facility situated about 1.5 kilometres southwest of the western edge of the Nayaru lagoon on Saturday (16) evening as the Task Force I, 57 Division and Task Force II deployed on the other side of the A9 road continued to consolidate their recent territorial gains. -The Island, August, 18 • International Non-Govermental Organisations carrying out humanitarian assistance in the Mullaitivu and Kilinochchi Districts, where the Military is on the offensive, have agreed to secure all equipment in their possession to prevent it falling into the hands of the LTTE, government sources said yesterday. "If not they agreed to bring all these equipment into government controlled areas after the government warned that stern action would be taken against INGOs which allowed such equipment to be utilized by the LTTE for military purposes against the security forces," the sources said. -The Island, August, 19 • The SLFP-led ruling coalition swept Saturday’s elections to North Central and Sabaragamuwa Provinces bagging all 27 electorates in Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Ratnapura and Kegalle districts. The UNP and the Opposition vowed to bring down the government to its knees in the run up to the election against the backdrop of the US Ambassador calling on the Elections Commissioner Dayananda Dissanayake to ensure a free and fair poll. -The Island, August, 25 • Though certain opposition politicians were challenging the government to hold general elections immediately, elections are due only in 2010 and will be held only then, President Mahinda Rajapaksa said yesterday. -The Island, August, 27 • In a public interest fundamental rights violation application, Jeevan Thiagarajah has complained to the Supreme Court that the loss to the Ceylon Electricity Board due to financing the thermal power sector was Rs. 35 billion in 2006 and Rs. 51.7 billion in 2007. In ten years from 2007, the accumulated loss will be Rs. 619 billion, he has said. -The Island, August, 28 • Police probing yesterday’s explosion in Colombo suspect that a bomb with a timing device had been used to trigger the blast, which injured 44 civilians. At least two of the wounded were in a critical condition and had undergone emergency surgery, hospital officials said. -The Island, August, 31 • UNP parliamentarian Dr. Jayalath Jayawardena has complained to the Human Rights Commission of Sri Lanka that while he was praying at the Shrine of Our Lady of Madhu, he was asked to leave the sacred precincts by the army. In a petition submitted to the Commission through attorney-at-law Priyalal Sirisena instructed by Desmond Fernando, P.C., Dr. Jayawardena says that Major General Lalith Daulagalla had asked him to leave immediately as the Defence Secretary had not granted permission for him to stay in the Shrine. -The Island, August, 31

SEPTEMBER 2008

• The army has released a small section of the High Security Zone (HSZ) situated in Ariyalai east between railway tracks and the Kandy-Jaffna A9 road. Army headquarters has authorised the release of 103 acres of cultivable paddy fields on the recommendation of Jaffna Commander Major General G. A. Chandrasiri. Inter-Agency Standing Committee which represents all INGOs including UN agencies has confirmed the release of land in its latest bulletin. -The Island, September, 01 • LTTE handbills are advising civilians in the Kilinochchi and Mullaitivu districts to construct bunkers for protection from advancing Government troops. Following the capture of Thunukkai and Mallawi civilians have been attempting to flee to the Government controlled areas. -The Island, September, 03 • In the absence of a directive from Parliament, the Commission to Investigate Allegations of Bribery or Corruption has not even commenced investigations into the second COPE report on waste, corruption and irregularities in public and private sectors. The report presented to Parliament by Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe, former Chairman of the Parliamentary watch dog committee in August last year, is gathering dust. -The Island, September, 04

• Defending the decision to conduct a census of Tamils from the North living in the Western province, • The Consortium of Humanitarian Agencies yesterday said the Government which had announced the Defence Secretary Gothabaya Rajapaksa said yesterday the primary objective of this move is to opening of corridors civilians fleeing the Vanni must provide essential goods and services to the prevent the LTTE from pressuring civilians to carry out attacks." The Government has no intention to refugees in accordance with national laws and international conventions. Humanitarian assistance harass innocent civilians and we have taken all precautions not to inconvenience anybody rendered to the people of Vanni through the district secretariats of Vavuniya, Kilinochchi, Mullaitivu unnecessarily", he said. "All what we need is to obtain data on these persons".-The Island, September, and Mannar should be augmented and complemented by humanitarian and relief agencies and must be 21 maintained, the Consortium said in a statement yesterday. -The Island, September, 05 • Food convoys to conflict areas in the North will be diverted via Mankulam from today (Wednesday) • The Supreme Court yesterday rejected the motion seeking bail for Venerable Pannala Pragnaloka by-passing fierce fighting in the Killinochchi sector, Presidential Secretariat sources said yesterday. Thera of the Welikadawatte Temple Rajagiriya who had been remanded on a Supreme Court order Advisor to the President, Commissioner General of Essential Services S. B. Divaratne told The Island for failing to answer notice to appear before the Court. A group of over fifty Buddhist monks were in that donor countries wanted the Government to send the convoys of food to the Internally Displaced Court yesterday to see the bail application being supported. -The Island, September, 06 Persons in the Wanni accompanied by representatives of the UN Agencies. ".-The Island, September, 24 • Despite battlefield losses last week with the LTTE delivering bodies of 30 soldiers killed in action • The breakaway LTTE faction, headed by ‘Colonel’ Karuna, has been accommodated in an ongoing through the ICRC, Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapaksa while agreeing that the road forward is ICRC programme to enhance respect for International Humanitarian Law (IHL) among combatants in hard remains convinced that victory is certain. Rajapaksa expressed these thoughts in an interview Sri Lanka. Before Karuna broke away from the Tigers in March 2004, the ICRC had conducted IHL with today’s issue of the Irida Divaina where he said that the progress made had been a little faster classes for the LTTE. -The Island, September, 25 than originally planned. -The Island, September, 07 • The Sri Lanka peace process Co-chairs the United States, the European Union, Japan and Norway met • The Supreme Court yesterday discharged from remand custody, the Ven. Pannala Pragnaloka Thera, in New York on Wednesday to discuss the latest fighting in Sri Lanka, including the need for both the Chief Priest of Welikadawatte Temple, Rajagiriya, who was remanded by the Supreme Court on sides to protect civilians, a US diplomat said. –Daily Mirror, September, 26 September 1, for failing to answer its summons. Counsel Prassanthalal de Alwis submitted to the • TheSupreme LTTE Court has thwarted a motion an filed attempt on behalf by UN of Ven.agencies Pannala and PragnalokaINGOs to byevacuate a brother several thero hundred of the Tamilsame employeestemple, the from Ven. theHikkgala area underUdayadhamma its control. Ther Wella askinginformed for sourcesthe release said ofthat the although thera. -Thesome Island, local INGOSeptember, workers 09 had been allowed to leave with the expatriate staff, the vast majority were denied the opportunity. The UN and all other expatriates except the Project Manager of ZOA had quit the • The armed forces early yesterday thwarted an LTTE attempt to destroy a critical section of the SLAF’s LTTE-held area by September 16. -The Island, September, 29 fledging air defence system located in the sprawling Vavuniya air base. The chance detection of a group • Humanof LTTE rights cadres lawyer in SLA and typeTransparen fatiguescy in International the SLA complex (Sri Lanka) adjacent Director, to the J. C. SLAF Weliamuna’s base prevented Kohuwela an houseassault cameon the under radar a stationbomb attackinstalled on by Saturday India, wh nightile the causing SLAF damageshot down to theone premises. of the two –Daily LTTE Mirror, light September,aircraft which 29 were getting away after dropping several bombs on the joint SLA, SLAF and Police complex in Vavuniya. -The Island, September, 10 • The Centre for Policy Alternatives andOCTOBER Dr. Rohan Edirisinghe2008 moved the Supreme Court against a government gazette notification published on August 11, 2008, which seeks to vest powers in the • PresidentThe government to extend has the decided age of tocompulsory deport with retirement immediate of anyeffect public ZOA officer Project appointed Manager by thein Kilinochchi President. Thewho petitionhad refused said thatto accedethe purported to the requestnotification by thewould government enable extensions, to leave basedKilinochchi, on considerations Minister of otherDisaster than Management those provided and forHuman by the Rights Constitution Mahinda and Samarasinghe would politicise said theyesterday public service.(3). At Ita wouldpress violateconference the Publicat his Trustministry, Doctrine, he said the the Rule Italian of INLaw,GO good official governance had refused and todemocracy leave Kilinochchi. -The Island, for September,Vavuniya when 11 all other foreign NGO personnel obliged. -The Island, October,04 • PremierAn LTTE Manmohan suicide bomber Singh’s yesterday government blew is himself unlikely up to killing give Northup its roleCentral in Sri Province Lanka despiteOpposition the recentleader mediaMajor Generalrevelation Janaka of the Perera presence (retd.), of Indian his wife personnel and 27 othersat the Vavuniyaat the opening SLAF baseceremony which of was the targeted new UNP by theoffice LTTE in Anuradhapura, on September police 9. A said. section -The ofIsland, the October,07Tamilnadu political groups has urged the coalition to • immediatelyThe Supreme recall Court personnel yesterday after declared the Colombo that the press retired reported President, the hospitalizationMrs. Chandrika of Bandaranaike two Indians woundedKumaratunga in the had LTTE’s failed suicidein responsibi assaultlity on and the abused base by her 11 powersBlack Tigers, in directing half of thethem alienation women. of-The acquired Island, September,State land at14 Battaramulla to Asia Pacific Gulf Course Private Limited for the construction of a golf • Thecourse United for theStates elite. of AmericaThe land on had Monday been adoptedacquired legi byslation the Urban that would Development enable it Authorityto prosecute for foreign public militaryutility purposes leaders whomainly recruit as a childwater soldiers. retention This wetla wouldnd. beThe direct judgement blow to stated the LTTE that whichthe entire had beenland recruitingtransaction, child involving soldiers around in its 224 war acres, against had the been Sri doLankanne in violationGovernment, of the Hu publicman trustRights vested Watch in saidthe formeryesterday. President. The Child The CourtSoldiers nullified Accountability the transaction Act waswhich unanimously was declared passed arbitrary, in andthe illegal.House -The of Island,Representatives October,09 on September 8 and was adopted by the Senate on Monday. -The Island, September, 17 • PresidentThe Special Mahinda Presidential Rajapakse Commission had a meeting Investigating with India’sSerious High Violations Commissioner of Human in Colombo,Rights is unableMr. Alok to Prasad,proceed last with Tuesday the probe when into he theclarified much some publicized of Indi killinga’s concerns of 17 aid about workers the on-going of the French military NGO offensive ‘Action in theAgainst Vanni, Hunger’ Mr.Basil due Rajapakse to the delay revealed. in passing -The theIsland, Witn October,12ess Protection Act in Parliament, Chairman of the • TheCommission Supreme retired Court Supreme yesterday Court refused Judge Nissankaleave to Udalagamaproceed with said. the–Daily fundamental Mirror, September, rights 18violation • Theapplication government filed by has the ordered JVP against a police the appointmentcensus in the of Western Karuna AmmanProvince to in Parliament a bid to neutralize to fill the an vacancy LTTE build-upcreated bytargeting the resignation a range ofof political,the JVP nationaleconomic List and MP, mi litaryVasantha targets. Samarasinghe, It will not inapply June to this people year. from-The Island,outside October,14 the Northern Province. -The Island, September, 19

• CHENNAI (IANS): An all-party meeting convened by Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi Tuesday asked the central government to immediately halt all military aid to Sri Lanka and ensure an immediate ceasefire in the civil war on the island, warning that all MPs from the state would resign in

two weeks if this didn’t happen. -The Island, October,16 • …the army said the 57 Division had pierced the last major LTTE defence line ahead of its Kilinochchi stronghold. After a bloody battle in which the LTTE used poisonous gas, the fighting elements of the 57 Division brought about a three-kilometre stretch of the earth bund along with 19 heavily fortified LTTE bunkers under its control. -The Island, October,20 • An attempt by Sea Tigers to sink two vessels, one carrying food, at Myliddy, near the Kankesanthurai harbour, was foiled by Navy escort vessels. Mercs Ruhuna and Mercs Nimalawa, the cargo ships, were targeted by three LTTE suicide boats. -The Island, October,23 • Sriharikota (PTI): Chandrayaan-1, India's maiden moon spacecraft, was on Wednesday put into Transfer Orbit around the earth by the Polar Launch Vehicle PSLV-C11 about 19 minutes after it blasted off from the Satish Dhawan Space Centre here. –Daily Mirror, October,23 • Former President Chandrika Kumaratunga has discussed the possibility of seeking public assistance to pay the fines imposed on her by the Supreme Court in relation to the recent landmark judgment in the

alienation of acquired State land at Battaramulla to Asia Pacific Golf Course Private Limited. -The Island, October,24 • Two LTTE aircraft yesterday bombed the Mannar army camp and the Kelanitissa Power Station in Colombo. However, the damage was minimal, the military said. No details were immediately available from Mannar but a senior defence official confirmed one soldier had been injured there and that bombing had damaged a cooling system connected to a gas turbine at Kelanitissa. -The Island, October,29

NOVEMBER 2008

• Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa yesterday commended former Maldivian President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom for the manner in which he acted following the recently held presidential election, a Maldivian news agency reported. On Wednesday Opposition candidate Mohamed ‘Ani” Nasheed was declared winner of the first multi-party democratic elections in the Maldives, defeating his longtime rival Mr. Gayoom. –Daily Mirror, November,01 • AP-Across the globe, in concert halls and ballrooms, in plazas and beach parties and busy streets, the

citizens of the world hailed the election of Barack Obama as a stroke for racial equality and voiced hopes his presidency would herald a more balanced, less confrontational America. -The Island, November 6 • President Mahinda Rajapaksa yesterday presented the fourth budget of his Government introducing a wide range of people’s friendly proposals aiming to bring down the cost of living burden and achieving long term economic benefits to the country including the development of local industries.–Daily News, November 7 • The Government will not enter into a CFA or talks with the LTTE at this juncture unless it was

prepared to lay down arms, Agriculture Development and Agrarian Services Minister Maithripala Sirisena told Parliament yesterday. –Daily News, November 7 • A special tribunal headed by a Delhi High Court judge yesterday upheld the Centre’s notification for extending the ban on LTTE for another two years. –Daily News, November 7 • Eastern Province Chief Minister Sivanesathurai Chandrakanthan’s (Pillaiyan)Private Secretary, Kumarasamy Nandagopan alias Ragu and the driver of the Volvo in which he was travelling were shot dead at Oruwala in Athurugiriya yesterday. –Daily News, November 15

• The government said yesterday that LTTE Leader Velupillai Prabhakaran could contest elections in the country if he gave up arms and entered the democratic mainstream. Speaking at a media briefing, Foreign Minister Rohitha Bogollagama said that, just as President Mahinda Rajapaksa had welcomed Pillayan and Karuna -- both former Tiger leaders --, into Sri Lankan politics, a path would be paved for Prabhakaran to hold a key position in the North if the people elected him. –Daily Mirror, November 20

FINDINGS AT A GLANCE OF THE POLL CONDUCTED FROM 21ST NOVEMBER - 1ST DECEMBER 2008

The following are the significant trends observed in the PCI November 2008 survey. This particular wave of the PCI only covers the Sinhala, Tamil, Muslim and the Up-Country Tamil communities in the areas outside Northern Province. The Tamil sample, drawn from the cities of Ampara, Trincomalee, Batticaloa and Colombo were surveyed using a non-random sampling technique. Therefore, all findings that reference the Tamils cannot be generalized to the entire community.

♦ Important Issues: When asked to rate five national issues depending on the importance they place on each issue, the Sinhala community gives importance to the country’s economy (25.8%) and the conflict in the north and east (26.1%).The Tamil community gives priority to a peace process in Sri Lanka (26%) followed by the conflict in the north and east (24.8%). The Up- Country Tamil community gives importance to the economy (29%) followed by a peace process in Sri Lanka (25.3%). The Muslim community also has a similar response to the Up- Country Tamil community where they too prioritize the economy (33.5%) and a peace process in Sri Lanka (30.1%). When compared to the PCI findings of August 2008, amongst the Sinhala (Aug -19.9%, Nov- 22.7%) and the Muslim (Aug – 24.2%, Nov – 30.1%) community, those who give importance to a peace process in Sri Lanka has slightly increased. Amongst the Tamil community, those who give priority to the economy has decreased (Aug -25.5%, Nov- 16.9%) while those who give importance to the conflict in the north and east have increased (Aug - 18.1%, Nov- 24.8%). Amongst the Up-Country Tamil community, those who give importance to the economy has increased (Aug -23.4%, Nov- 29%). (Ref. Page 15)

♦ Solution to find Peace: A majority of the Sinhala community (60.7%) think the only way to end the war and arrive at peace in Sri Lanka is by government defeating the LTTE. However, 19.6% of the Sinhala communities say that political negotiations after government defeats LTTE is the way to end the war and arrive at peace. A majority of the Tamil (77%), Up-Country Tamil (82.9%) and the Muslim (60%) communities say stopping the war and conducting political negotiations is the way to arrive at peace in Sri Lanka. When compared to the PCI findings of August 2008, amongst the Sinhala community, those who believe in government defeating the LTTE is the way to arrive at peace in Sri Lanka, has increased (Aug -50.9%, Nov- 60.7%) while those who believe in political negotiations after government defeats LTTE, has decreased (Aug -23.8%, Nov- 19.6%). Amongst the Up-Country Tamil community, those who say that peace can be found by stopping the war and conducting political negotiations have increased (Aug - 76.4%, Nov- 82.9%). Amongst the Muslim community, those who say stopping the war and conducting political negotiations have decreased (Aug -77.5%, Nov- 60%) while those who say conducting peace talks while having military operations have increased (Aug -8.8%, Nov- 28%).(Ref. Page 16)

♦ Necessity of a Political Solution: When asked about the necessity of a political solution to resolve the present ethnic conflict, a majority of the minority communities (Tamil: 57%, UP- Country Tamil: 55.3%, Muslim: 76.8%) think that irrespective of how the war ends, a political solution is essential. Amongst the Sinhala community, 35.4% say a political settlement is essential while 28.7% say a political settlement is useful. Another 22.4% of the Sinhala community say it is not required. When compared to the PCI findings of August 2008, amongst the Sinhala community those who think a political settlement is essential have slightly increased (Aug -31.4%, Nov- 35.4%) while those who think it’s useful (Aug -35.7%, Nov- 28.7%) have decreased. Amongst the Tamil community, those who think it is essential (Aug -72.4%, Nov- 57%) have decreased while those who think it’s useful (Aug -16.3%, Nov- 23.3%) has increased.

Amongst the Up-Country Tamil community and the Muslim community, those who think it’s essential (UCT: Aug- 40.9%, Nov-55.3% / Muslim: Aug- 59.3%, Nov-76.8%) have increased while those who think it’s useful (UCT: Aug- 25.3%, Nov-15.4% / Muslim: Aug- 21.7%, Nov- 14.5%) have decreased. (Ref. Page 17)

♦ Timing of a Political Solution: A majority within the minority communities believe that a political solution should be designed while the war continues (Tamil: 55.2%, Up-Country Tamil: 46.8%, Muslim: 68.1%). However, amongst the Sinhala community, 41.7% believe that a political solution should be designed after the war. Nevertheless, another 23% of the Sinhala community think that a political solution is not required while 19.2% say a political solution should be designed while the war continues. When compared to the PCI findings of August 2008, amongst the Sinhala community, those who say that a solution should be designed after the war has increased (Aug -39.5%, Nov- 41.7%) while those who say that it should be designed while the war continues has decreased (Aug -23%, Nov- 19.2%). Amongst the Tamil community, those who think a political solution is not required has increased (Aug -8.2%, Nov- 17.3%). Amongst the Up-Country Tamil community, those who think a political solution should be designed while the war continues have significantly decreased (Aug -68.2%, Nov- 46.8%) while those who think that a solution should be designed after the war have increased (Aug - 7.4%, Nov- 14.7%). Amongst the Muslim community, those who think that a solution should be designed while the war continues have increased (Aug - 48.4%, Nov- 68.1%). (Ref. Page 18)

♦ Proximity to an end to the conflict: A majority of the Sinhala community (81.7%) think that compared to a year ago, the country is close in approaching a permanent settlement to the ethnic conflict. A majority of the Tamil (53.6%) and the Up-Country Tamil (51.4%) communities think the country is not close at all in approaching a permanent settlement to the ethnic conflict. Amongst the Muslim community, 37% think that the country is close for a permanent settlement while 25.2% think it is not close at all. When compared to the PCI findings of August 2008, amongst the Sinhala community, those who think that the country is close to a permanent settlement have increased (Aug – 69.6%, Nov- 81.7%). Amongst the minority communities, those who think the country is not close at all to a permanent settlement have decreased (Tamil: Aug- 64.8%, Nov-53.6% / UCT: Aug- 62.6%, Nov-51.4% / Muslim: Aug- 38.8%, Nov- 25.2%) while those who think it’s close (Tamil: Aug- 5.7%, Nov- 14.4% / UCT: Aug- 4.1%, Nov-9.7% / Muslim: Aug- 32%, Nov- 37%) have increased amongst the minority communities. Further, those who think it remains the same have increased amongst the Tamil and the Up-Country Tamil communities (Tamil: Aug- 23.8%, Nov-30.9% / UCT: Aug- 17.9%, Nov-21.1%). (Ref. Page 19)

♦ Commitment & Capacity: A majority of the Sinhala community (63.7%) and the Muslim community (59.7%) agree that the government is committed to find peace through talks. A majority of the Tamil community (61.5%) and the Up-Country Tamil community (56.5%) disagree that the government is committed to find peace through talks. When compared to the PCI findings of August 2008, amongst the Sinhala community, the agreement has increased (Aug -58.1%, Nov- 63.7%) while the disagreement has decreased (Aug -23.5%, Nov- 19.2%). Amongst the Tamil (Aug -10.8%, Nov- 22.9%) and the Muslim (Aug -47.1%, Nov- 59.7%) communities the agreement has increased. Amongst the Up-Country Tamil community, the disagreement has increased (Aug -31.3%, Nov- 56.5%). (Ref. Page 20)

♦ A majority of the Sinhala community (78.7%) and the Muslim community (45.1%) disagree that the LTTE is committed to find peace through talks. Amongst the Tamil community, 38.9% agree while 35.6% disagree with the statement. Amongst the Up-Country Tamil community, 30.3% agree while 29.7% disagree with the statement. When compared to the PCI findings of August 2008, amongst the Tamil and the Up-Country Tamil community agreement have

increased (Tamil: Aug- 26.1%, Nov- 38.9% / UCT: Aug- 20.5%, Nov- 30.3%) while amongst the Muslim community agreement have decreased (Aug- 20.7%, Nov- 18.3%). (Ref. Page 21)

♦ The respondents were asked how soon they think the present ongoing war will come to an end. Amongst the Sinhala community, 22.1% say the ongoing war will come to an end within the next year while 18.4% say they can’t specify time frame but war will end eventually. 16.8% say it will end within the next six months while 11.8% say it will take longer than a year. Amongst the minority communities (Tamil- 34.4%, Up-Country Tamil- 45.7%, Muslim- 34.9%), most of them say they can’t specify a time frame but the war will end eventually. (Ref. Page 22)

♦ A majority of the Sinhala community (81.2%) think that currently the LTTE is weak in terms of their military capacity. Amongst the Tamil community, 28.6% think that the LTTE is currently weak militarily and 18.4% think it’s the same as last year. Amongst the Up-County Tamil community, 24.9% think that the LTTE is currently strong militarily. Amongst the Muslim community, 28.3% think the LTTE is currently weak in terms of their military capacity while 16.9% think it’s strong. Another 15% think it’s same as last year. When compared to the PCI findings of August 2008, those who believe that the LTTE is weak militarily have increased amongst all the four communities (Sinhala: Aug- 75.6%, Nov- 81.2% / Tamil: Aug- 11.2%, Nov- 28.6% / UCT: Aug- 7.2%, Nov- 9.4% / Muslim: Aug- 23.9%, Nov- 28.3%). (Ref. Page 23)

♦ A significant majority of the Sinhala community (94.8%) and a majority of the Muslim community (44%) think the Government’s security forces are currently strong in terms of their military capacity. Amongst the Tamil community, 36.2% think the security forces are currently strong militarily and 18.2% think it's the same as last year. 5.1% think the security forces are militarily weak. Amongst the Up-Country Tamil community, 18.3% think the security forces are currently strong militarily while 8.3% think its same as last year. When compared to the PCI findings of August 2008, those who say that the security forces are currently strong militarily have increased amongst the Sinhala (Aug -91%, Nov- 94.8%), Tamil (Aug -28.8%, Nov- 36.2%) and the Up- Country Tamil (Aug -11.3%, Nov- 18.3%) communities. Amongst the Muslim community, those who say that security forces are strong in terms of their current military capacity have decreased (Aug -69.6%, Nov- 44%). (Ref. Page 24)

♦ Current Security Condition: Compared to the situation a year ago, 52.1% of the Sinhala community think the national security has somewhat improved while 26.2% think it has greatly improved. A majority of the Tamil community (50.5%) think the national security has got worse, 23.2% think it remains the same while 19.2% think it has got much worse. Amongst the Up-Country Tamil community, 29.1% think that national security has got worse compared to the situation a year ago while 24.7% think it remains the same. Amongst the Muslim community, 46.1% think the national security has somewhat improved, while 20.5% think it has got worse. When compared to the PCI findings of August 2008, the opinion across the communities don’t seem to have changed. (Ref. Page 25)

♦ Compared to the situation a year ago, 46.2% of the Sinhala community thinks that their level of personal security has somewhat improved while 17.7% think it has greatly improved. Another 27.3% think it remains the same. Amongst the Tamil community, 32.7% think their personal security got much worse while 30.6% think it remains the same. Amongst the Up-Country Tamil community, 27.6% think their personal security remains the same. Another 20.4% think it got worse and 22.1% think it got much worse. Amongst the Muslim community, 40.7% think it has somewhat improved while 19.8% think it got worse. When compared to the PCI findings of August 2008, amongst the Sinhala and the Muslim community, those who feel that their personal security has improved has increased (Sinhala: Aug- 37.9%, Nov- 63.9% / Muslim: Aug- 34.9%, Nov- 55.3%). Amongst the Tamil (Aug -7.1%, Nov- 30.6%) and the Up-Country Tamil

(Aug -3.1%, Nov- 27.6%) community, those who think that it remains the same has increased. (Ref. Page 26)

♦ Sri Lanka: Respondents were asked to choose with which statement that they most agreed with regarding to whom Sri Lanka belongs. When looking at the ethnic breakdown, the majorities of all the communities (Sinhala: 83.4%, Tamil: 98%, UCT: 87.9%, Muslim: 96.1%) agree that Sri Lanka belongs to all citizens equally. 9.9% of the Sinhala community however agrees that Sri Lanka belongs to Sinhala Buddhists. (Ref. Page 27)

♦ Indian Involvement: With regard to recent news reports about agitations in Tamil Nadu against the Indian Central Government on the situation in Sri Lanka saying that India should intervene in Sri Lanka to resolve the conflict, respondents were asked if they had heard of these reports. Majority of the Sinhala (67.7%), Tamil (96%) and Up-Country Tamil (71.3%) communities say that they had heard of these reports. However, a majority of the Muslim (51.6%) community say that they had not heard of these reports. (Ref. Page 28)

♦ Respondents who had heard of the reports were asked if they will approve or disapprove if India intervenes in Sri Lanka to solve the ethnic problem. A majority of the Tamil (83.2%), Up- Country Tamil (92.3%) and Muslim (51.6%) communities said that they approve of India’s intervention whereas a majority of the Sinhala community (74%) says that they disapprove of India intervening to solve the ethnic problem in Sri Lanka. (Ref. Page 29)

♦ Respondents were given a few statements and were asked to state how important they think it is. When asked about India’s involvement in initiating peace with the LTTE, a majority of the Tamil (64.1%) and Up-Country Tamil (64%) community say that it is very important. However, a majority of the Sinhala (65.7%) communities say that it is not important whereas a majority of the Muslim (51.5%) communities say that it is somewhat important. (Ref. Page 30)

♦ When asked about the importance of Indian involvement in the Sri Lankan Government war effort, a majority of the Sinhala (58.4%), Tamil (62.9%) and Muslim (44%) communities say that it is not important, whereas a majority of the Up-Country Tamil community (43.4%) believe that it is very important. (Ref. Page 30)

♦ On the topic of Indian involvement in the Sri Lankan Government presenting a political solution, a majority of the Tamil (50%) and Up-Country Tamil (65.8%) communities think it is very important. However, a majority of the Sinhala (63.7%) community say that it is not important, whereas a majority of the Muslim (54.9%) community think that it is somewhat important. (Ref. Page 31)

♦ Supreme Court Ruling on CBK: On October 8, 2008 the Supreme Court upheld that former President Chandrika Kumarathunga had misused her powers while in her Presidency. A majority of the Sinhala (52.6%) and Tamil (61%) communities were aware of this verdict, whereas a majority of the Up-Country Tamil (84%) and Muslim (77.2%) communities were unaware of the verdict. (Ref. Page 32)

♦ Respondents who were aware of the verdict were asked if they thought that this measure would prevent future abuses of power by a President of Sri Lanka. A majority of the Sinhala (45.6%), Tamil (40%) and Muslim (42.4%) communities think that this measure will prevent future abuses of power. A majority of the Up-Country Tamil community (58.6%) were not sure. (Ref. Page 33)

♦ 13th Amendment: Respondents were asked if they were aware of the 13th Amendment to the Constitution that introduced Provincial Council system. A majority in all four communities (Sinhala – 70.8%, Tamil – 54.5%, Upcountry Tamil – 71.8%, Muslim – 83.5%) were unaware of the 13th Amendment. (Ref. Page 34)

♦ Those who were aware of the 13th Amendment to the Constitution were asked for their opinion about how far a political solution to the ethnic conflict should include the 13th Amendment. A majority of the Sinhala (42.9%), Tamil (27.3%) and Muslim (28.6%) communities say that the political solution should implement some provisions of the 13th Amendment. However, a majority of the Up-Country Tamil respondents (58%) believe that the political solution should go beyond the 13th Amendment. (Ref. Page 35)

♦ President’s Performance: Respondents were asked to indicate their level of satisfaction with President Rajapakse’s performance. In maintaining law and order, a majority of the Sinhala community (50.5%) are very satisfied with President Rajapakse’s performance. A majority of the Muslim community (42.2%) and the Up-Country Tamil community (33.5%) are somewhat satisfied. However, a majority of the Tamil community (48%) are very dissatisfied with the President’s maintenance of law and order. (Ref. Page 36)

♦ In controlling cost of living, a majority of the Sinhala (41%) community are somewhat satisfied with President Rajapakse’s performance. However, a majority of the Tamil (54%), Up-Country Tamil (45.9%) and Muslim (39.3%) communities say that they are very dissatisfied. (Ref. Page 36)

♦ Satisfaction regarding President Rajapakse in management of international relations, the Sinhala community (56.8%) says they are very satisfied, and the Tamil community (42.9%) and Muslim community (42.2%) say that they are somewhat satisfied. However, 41.8% of the Tamil community and 24.3% of the Up-Country Tamil community say that they are very dissatisfied with the President in maintaining international relations. (Ref. Page 37)

♦ Satisfaction with President Rajapakse in conducting the war, a majority of the Sinhala community (78.9%) say that they are very satisfied, while 64% of the Tamil community and 30.2% of the Up-Country Tamil community say that they are very dissatisfied. The Muslim community (32.7%) says that they are somewhat satisfied. (Ref. Page 37)

♦ Satisfaction with the President handling pressure/influence from India, 46.6% of the Sinhala community says that they are very satisfied. However, 52% of the Tamil community, 24.3% of the Up-Country Tamil community and 21.6% of the Muslim community say that they are very dissatisfied. (Ref. Page 38)

♦ Cost of Living: When asked if Karuna Amman’s appointment is “Travesty of justice”, minority communities tended to show high levels of unawareness (Don’t Know: Muslim 38.7%, Up-Country Tamil 55.4% and Tamil 27.5%) rather than agree/disagree. A lower level of agreement is shown clearly by the Sinhala respondents (37.4%). (Ref. Page 39)

♦ The respondents were given a series of statements that describes the effects of the cost of living (COL) and were asked to choose the statement which best describes their situation. 50.8% of the Sinhala community and 53% of the Tamil community say that the present COL has affected their financial situation and that they live with some difficulties. A majority of the Up-Country Tamil (77.9%) and Muslim (59.9%) communities say that the present COL has badly affected on their financial situation and that they live with great difficulties. When compared to the PCI findings of August 2008, amongst all the communities those who think that present COL has affected their financial situation and that they live with some difficulties

have increased (Sinhala: Aug- 47.8%, Nov- 50.8% / Tamil: Aug- 41.9%, Nov- 53% / UCT: Aug- 15.2%, Nov- 20.4% / Muslim: Aug- 27.7%, Nov- 38.5%). (Ref. Page 40)

♦ The Budget: Respondents were asked if they were aware that the government presented its third budget in Parliament recently. Majority of all four communities were aware of it. (Sinhala (95.3%), Tamil (94.8%), Up-Country Tamil (57.1%) and Muslim (67.8%)). (Ref. Page 40)

♦ Those respondents who said that they were aware that the government presented its third budget in parliament recently were asked about how closely they followed the budget/budget speech. A majority of the Sinhala (50.5%), Tamil (41.9%) and Up-Country Tamil (42.7%) communities say that they read/listened to the budget but did not pursue it somewhat closely. A majority of the Muslim community (43.9%) say that they followed it somewhat closely (Did not pursue intentionally but paid full attention when they came across news/media reports and articles). (Ref. Page 40)

♦ The same respondents were asked about their main source of information on the budget. A majority of the Sinhala (51.5%), Tamil (58.4%) and the Up-Country Tamil (58.9%) communities say they relied on the analysis and articles that appear in the mass media. Amongst the Muslim community 39.9% say its from the analysis and articles that appear in the mass media while another 39.9% say its by reading the budget document or listening /watching the budget reading on media. (Ref. Page 41)

♦ The respondents were then asked about the impact the recent budget had on their cost of living. A majority of the Sinhala (58.8%) and Muslim (64.4%) communities say that their cost of living remains at the same levels whereas majority of the Tamil community (52.6%) and Up- Country Tamil community (57.3%) say that their cost of living has increased due to the recent budget. (Ref. Page 41)

♦ Global Credit Crunch: The respondents were asked about what sort of an impact the global credit crunch would have on the Sri Lankan economy. A majority of the Sinhala community (63.1%) and Muslim community (46.2%) say that there will be somewhat of a negative impact, although the Tamil community (46.8%) and Up-Country Tamil community (33.7%) say that there will be a strong negative impact. However, a majority of the Up-Country Tamil community (39.4%) say that there will be no impact. (Ref. Page 42)

♦ Situation in the Vanni: When asked if they agree that there is a severe shortage of food, medicine and essential items in Vanni, a majority of the Tamil (83.7%) and Up-Country Tamil (49.7%) communities agree. However, a majority of the Sinhala (44.2%) and Muslim (47.1%) communities say that they don’t know. (Ref. Page 43)

♦ The East: Respondents were asked if they agree or disagree about whether the East has improved considerably since the Eastern Provincial elections were over. While a majority of the Sinhala community (49%) and Tamil community (40.2%) say that they agree that the East has improved considerably, 80.1% of the Up-Country Tamil respondents and 57.5% of the Muslim community do not know if they agree or disagree. (Ref. Page 44)

♦ The respondents who agreed that the East has improved considerably were asked about the level of improvement in certain aspects. In obtaining resources for development of the region, 68.4% of the Sinhala, 34.5% of the Tamil, 40% of the Up-Country Tamil and 46.1% of the Muslim communities say that the East has somewhat improved. Furthermore, 39.7% of Tamil community says that the East has improved considerably. (Ref. Page 45)

♦ On the safety and security of the civilians, 67.1% of the Sinhala and 40.2% of the Muslim community say that it has somewhat improved while 31.7% of Tamil community say that it has improved considerably. However, 40% of the Up-Country Tamils say that there is no change. (Ref. Page 45)

♦ Appointment of Karuna: Respondents were asked about their level of awareness, as well as their opinion on Vinayagmoorthi Muralidaran, generally known as Karuna Amman, being sworn in as a Member of Parliament on October 7. When looking at the ethnic breakdown, it is the Sinhala and the Tamil communities that showed the highest level of awareness (82% and 87.9% respectively). 42.3% of the Up-Country Tamil community and 54.5% of Muslim community were aware of Karuna Amman being sworn in a Member of Parliament, although 17% of the Up-Country Tamil community and 26.4% of the Muslim community said that they were unaware. Amongst the Up-Country Tamil community, 40.7% did not know about Karuna Amman being sworn in as Member of Parliament. (Ref. Page 46)

♦ The respondents who were aware of Karuna Amman being appointed as an MP in the Parliament were asked if they approve or disapprove of this appointment. A majority of the Sinhala (47.1%) and Tamil (41.8%) communities said that they approve, whereas 45.7% of the Muslim community stated their disapproval of Karuna Amman’s appointment. A majority of the Up-Country Tamil community (46.8%) said that they did not know whether they approve or disapprove, although 41.6% of the respondents of the same community said that they approve. (Ref. Page 47)

♦ The respondents who were aware of Karuna Amman’s appointment as an MP to the Parliament were given a series of statements relating to the appointment and were asked for their level of agreement on each statement. When stated Karuna Amman’s appointment as “A true sign of accommodating minorities”, 42.9% of Sinhala community somewhat agree while 21.7% of the Tamil community agree (27.7% totally agreeing). Highest disagreement stems from the Muslim community (Do not agree at all-26.3%). To the statement the appointment is “A sign of democracy”, the highest proportion of total agreement comes from Sinhala (22%) followed by Tamil 27.2% communities while Up-Country Tamils showing the highest disagreement (Do not agree at all 9.3%). (Ref. Page 48)

♦ To the statement the appointment is “Travesty of justice”, 37.4% of the Sinhala community shows their disagreement. Amongst the Tamil community, the agreement seems higher (Totally agree: 18.8%, Somewhat agree: 26.3%). A majority of the Up-Country Tamil (55.4%) and the Muslim (38.7%) community don’t know or not sure. (Ref. Page 49)

♦ Barak Obama: Respondents were asked if they had heard about the US Presidential Elections that was held on the 4th of November, where Barack Obama was elected as the new US President. Majority of the Sinhala (75.2%), Tamil (97.9%) and Muslim (66.1%) communities said that they had heard of Barack Obama being elected as President. However, a majority of the Up-Country Tamil community (63.5%) said that they had not heard of it. (Ref. Page 50)

♦ Respondents who had heard of Barack Obama being elected as the new US President were asked whether they think this election would affect Sri Lanka when it comes to assisting in the development of Sri Lanka. Majority of the Muslim community (45.2%), 41% of the Sinhala, 30.9% of the Tamil and 27.3% of the Up-Country Tamil communities say that it will affect positively. However, 43.9% of Sinhala, 35.1% of Tamil, and 28.8% of Up-Country Tamil and 39.9% of the Muslim community say that they do not know if the election will affect positively or negatively in assisting in the development of Sri Lanka. Furthermore, a majority of the Up- Country Tamil community (43.9%) say that the election will have no impact. (Ref. Page 51)

♦ When asked if the election will positively or negatively affect finding peace in Sri Lanka, 39.8% of the Sinhala community, 26.9% of the Tamil community, 27.3% of the Up-Country Tamil community and 44.3% of the Muslim community say that it will affect them positively. However, a majority of the Sinhala (44.4%) and Tamil (38.7%) communities do not know if the election would affect positively or negatively. (Ref. Page 51)

For further information please contact:

Pradeep Peiris or Rangani Ranasinghe

Social Indicator

Centre for Policy Alternatives 105, 5th Lane,

Colombo 3, Sri Lanka.

Tel: +9411 2370472/4 Email: [email protected]

Fax: +9411 2370475 Web: http://www.cpalanka.org

Peace Confidence Index (PCI) May 2001 – November 2008

Important Issues Rating the degree of importance of five national issues

Ethnic Breakdown

0.7 6.8 19.0 Muslim 30.1 9.3 33.5 Others 0.5 9.2 20.8 Corruption Up-Country Tamil 25.3 15.2 29.0 The conflict in the North and 1.7 East 12.9 24.8 A peace process in Sri Lanka Tamil 26.0 17.8 16.9 Law and Order 1.2 11.9 The Economy 26.1 Sinhala 22.7 12.2 25.8

02040

Changes of opinion from August '08 to November '08

0.7 100% 1.2 1.6 1.7 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.7 9.2 6.8 13.6 11.9 8.4 12.9 12.5 10.8 19.0 Others 18.1 80% 20.3 20.8 19.1 26.1 24.8 27.0 Corruption 60% 26.5 25.3 24.2 30.1 25.9 The conflict in the North and 19.9 22.7 26.0 East 40% 12.1 9.3 A peace process in Sri Lanka 11.0 20.0 15.2 12.2 17.6 17.8 Law and Order 20% 29.0 33.7 33.5 27.8 25.8 25.5 23.4 16.9 The Economy 0% Aug. Nov. Aug. Nov. Aug. Nov. Aug. Nov. '08 '08 '08 '08 '08 '08 '08 '08

Sinhala Tamil Up-Country Muslim Tamil

Solutions How do you think we can end the war and arrive at peace in Sri Lanka?

National Breakdown

8.0 Don't know/Not sure 0.4 60.0 28.0 Muslim 0.8 0.0 Other 0.4 2.4 11.6 0.0 Stop the war and conduct political Up-Country 82.9 3.9 0.0 negotiations Tamil 1.1 0.6 Conducting peace talks while having 0.0 5.0 military operations 0.0 77.0 Political negotiations after 7.0 Tamil 0.0 Government defeats LTTE 6.0 4.0 1.0 Political negotiations after LTTE 3.2 defeats Government 0.0 7.3 7.5 LTTE defeating the Government Sinhala 19.6 1.4 0.4 60.7 Government defeating the LTTE 0 20406080100

Change of Opinion from August '08 to November 08'

100% 3.2 4.4 6 5.0 11.6 1.2 8.0 Don't know/Not sure 1.2 7.3 0.4 9.3 18.8 7.5 0.5 80% 8.2 Other 19.6 23.8 1.4 60% 78.7 60.0 Stop the war and conduct political 0.4 77.0 77.5 0.5 negotiations 0.1 82.9 40% 76.4 Conducting peace talks while 60.7 having military operations 50.9 20% Political negotiations after 13.1 7.0 28.0 0.8 6.0 3.9 0.8 8.8 Government defeats LTTE 1.6 4.0 3.1 1.1 2 0.8 0.4 5.7 1.0 0.5 0.6 0 0.0 0% 0.5 5.2 2.4 Political negotiations after LTTE defeats Government Aug. Nov. Aug. Nov. Aug. Nov. Aug. Nov. LTTE defeating the Government '08 '08 '08 '08 '08 '08 '08 '08

Sinhala Tamil Up-Country Muslim Government defeating the LTTE Tamil

Some say that irrespective of how the war ends; a political solution is still necessary to resolve the present conflict. There are also some who disagree with this idea. What do you think?

I think that a political settlement is:

Ethnic Breakdown

6.4 Muslim 2.2 14.5 Don't know/ Not Sure 76.8 Not required 27.0 2.3 Up-Country Tamil 15.4 Useful 55.3 Essential 6.6 Tamil 13.1 23.3 57.0 13.5 Sinhala 22.4 28.7 35.4

0 20406080100

Change of Opinion from August '08 to November 08'

100% 5.7 6.5 6.4 16.8 13.5 5.7 11.5 2.2 13.1 32.3 27.0 7.5 14.5 80% 16.3 16.1 22.4 Don't know/ Not Sure 2.3 21.7 23.3 1.6 60% 15.4 Not required 25.3 35.7 28.7 Useful 40% 72.4 76.8 Essential 57.0 55.3 59.3 20% 40.9 31.4 35.4

0% Aug. Nov. Aug. Nov. Aug. Nov. Aug. Nov. '08 '08 '08 '08 '08 '08 '08 '08

Sinhala Tamil Up-Country Muslim Tamil

When do you think should a political solution be designed?

Ethnic Breakdown

19.7 2.3 Muslim 9.8 68.1 Don't know/ Not Sure 35.2 A political solution is not required Up-Country 3.3 Tamil 14.7 After the war 46.8 While the war continues 14.9 17.3 Tamil 12.7 55.2

16.2 23.0 Sinhala 41.7 19.2

0 20406080 %

Change of Opinion from August '08 to November 08'

100% 16.2 14.9 20.8 16.4 22.3 19.7 33.2 80% 8.2 35.2 17.3 2.0 2.3 16.7 23.0 7.4 9.8 Don't know/ Not Sure 18.9 3.3 60% 12.7 8.6 14.7 9.8 A political solution is not required 39.5 40% 41.7 After the war 68.2 68.1 56.6 55.2 46.8 48.4 While the war continues 20% 23.0 19.2 0% Aug. Nov. Aug. Nov. Aug. Nov. Aug. Nov. '08 '08 '08 '08 '08 '08 '08 '08

Sinhala Tamil Up-Country Muslim Tamil

Compared to the situation a year ago, how close do you think the country is, at present, in approaching a permanent settlement to the ethnic conflict?

Ethnic Breakdown

20.5 25.2 Muslim 17.3 37.0 Don't know / Not sure 17.7 51.4 Not close at all Up-Country Tamil 21.1 Remains the same 9.7 Close 1.0 53.6 Tamil 30.9 14.4

10.9 2.3 Sinhala 5.2 81.7

0 20406080100 %

Change of Opinion from August '08 to November 08'

100% 1.0 10.7 10.9 5.7 5.6 15.4 17.7 90% 4.2 2.3 20.5 5.2 80% 15.5 38.8 Don't know / Not sure 70% 53.6 25.2 60% 64.8 Not close 51.4 62.6 50% Remains the same 23.6 17.3 40% 81.7 69.6 Close 30% 30.9

20% 23.8 21.1 37.0 17.9 32.0 10% 14.4 9.7 0% 5.7 4.1 Aug. Nov. Aug. Nov. Aug. Nov. Aug. Nov. '08 '08 '08 '08 '08 '08 '08 '08

Sinhala Tamil Up-Country Muslim Tamil

Commitment I think the Government is committed to find peace through talks.

Ethnic Breakdown

20.2 Muslims 20.2 59.7 Don't know/Not sure 28.8 Disagree Up-Country Tamil 56.5 14.7 Agree

15.6 Tamil 61.5 22.9

17.1 Sinhala 19.2 63.7

020406080

Change of Opinion from August '08 to November 08'

100% 18.4 17.1 15.6 20.2 27.5 28.8 26.3 80% 19.2 50.5 23.5 20.2 Don't know/Not sure 60% 26.7 61.5 Disagree 61.7 56.5 40% Agree 31.3 58.1 63.7 59.7 47.1 20% 22.9 18.1 10.8 14.7 0% Aug. Nov. Aug. Nov. Aug. Nov. Aug. Nov. '08 '08 '08 '08 '08 '08 '08 '08

Sinhala Tamil Up-Country Muslim Tamil

I think the LTTE is committed to find peace through talks.

Ethnic Breakdown

36.6 Muslims 45.1 18.3 Don't know/Not sure 40.0 Disagree Up-Country Tamil 29.7 Agree 30.3

25.6 Tamil 35.6 38.9

18.8 Sinhala 78.7 2.5

0 20406080100

Change of Opinion from August '08 to November 08'

100% 18.8 22.7 25.6 34.2 80% 36.1 40.0 36.6 56.6 Don't know/Not sure

60% Disagree 35.6 Agree 37.8 29.7 45.1 40% 74.9 78.7 45.1 22.5

20% 38.9 26.1 30.3 20.9 20.7 18.3 0% 2.3 2.5 Aug. Nov. Aug. Nov. Aug. Nov. Aug. Nov. '08 '08 '08 '08 '08 '08 '08 '08

Sinhala Tamil Up-Country Muslim Tamil

How soon do you think the present ongoing war will come to an end?

Ethnic Breakdown

48.8 34.9 Don't know 3.6 Muslims 7.5 4.8 0.4 45.7 Can't specify time frame 45.7 but the war will end Up-Country Tamil 6.3 1.7 eventually 0.6 It will take longer than a 41.7 year 34.4 10.4 Tamil 8.3 Within the next year 4.2 1.0 23.9 18.4 Within the next six 11.8 Sinhala 22.1 months 16.8 7.0

0 204060

Some people say that compared to a year ago the LTTE is stronger today in terms of their military capacity. However, some others say the LTTE is weaker today in terms of their military capacity. What is your opinion on LTTE's current military capacity?

Ethnic Breakdown

0.8 39.0 Muslims 28.3 15.0 16.9 Refuse to answer 11.6 Don't know/ Not sure 46.4 Up-Country Tamil 9.4 Weak 7.7 24.9 Same as last year 9.2 Strong 38.8 Tamil 28.6 18.4 5.1 0.1 9.1 Sinhala 81.2 1.9 7.7

0 20 40 60 80 100

Change of Opinion from August '08 to November 08'

100% 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.8 8.2 9.1 14.4 9.2 9.2 11.6 25.1 80% 39.0 Refuse to answer 38.8 Don't know/Not Sure 36 46.4 23.9 Weak 60% 67.2 75.6 81.2 Same as last year 28.3 11.2 15.9 Strong 40% 28.6 9.4 16.8 7.7 15.0 20% 7.2 34.7 18.4 4.6 24.9 8.9 1.9 21.6 16.9 6.9 7.7 11.8 0% 5.1 Aug. Nov. Aug. Nov. Aug. Nov. Aug. Nov. '08 '08 '08 '08 '08 '08 '08 '08

Sinhala Tamil Up-Country Muslim Tamil

Some people say that compared to a year ago the security forces are stronger today in terms of their military capacity. However, some others say the security forces are weaker today in terms of their military capacity. What is your assessment of the government's current military capacity?

Ethnic Breakdown

34.5 Muslims 10.5 10.1 Refuse to answer 44.0 Don't know/Not Sure 15.4 50.2 Weak Up-Country Tamil 7.7 8.3 Same as last year 18.3 10.6 Strong 29.9 Tamil 5.1 18.2 36.2 0.0 2.8 Sinhala 0.9 1.6 94.8

0 20406080100

Change of Opinion from August '08 to November 08'

100% 0.5 0.0 0 3.9 0.92.8 0.8 0.9 1.6 13.6 10.6 9.7 3.7 15.4 20.4 80% 34.5 5.2 Refuse to answer 29.9 4.8 36 Don't know/Not Sure 60% 50.2 10.5 Weak 5.1 67.7 Same as last year 10.1 91 94.8 7.2 18.2 Strong 40% 14.4 69.6 7.7 8.3 44.0 20% 36.2 6.7 28.8 4.6 18.3 11.3 0% Aug. Nov. Aug. Nov. Aug. Nov. Aug. Nov. '08 '08 '08 '08 '08 '08 '08 '08

Sinhala Tamil Up-Country Muslims Tamil

Current Security Condition "Some people perceive that the national security has improved in the last year while others think it has got worse." Compared to the situation a year ago, do you think the national security (country's security) has improved or worsened?

Ethnic Breakdown

3.5 7.5 20.5 Muslim 12.6 46.1 Don't know/Not sure 9.8 Got much worse 17.6 29.1 Got worse 14.3 Up-Country Tamil 24.7 13.7 Remains the same 0.5 Somewhat improved 1.0 19.2 Greatly improved 50.5 Tamil 23.2 5.1 1.0 4.6 0.1 2.9 Sinhala 14.1 52.1 26.2

0204060

Change of Opinion from August '08 to November 08'

100% 4.6 4.6 1.5 1.0 3.4 3.5 2.90.1 2.90.1 7.5 7.5 19 19.2 17.3 17.6 14.1 14.1 80% 20.5 20.5 Don't know/Not sure 29.1 29.1 Got much worse 12.6 12.6 60% Got worse 50.7 50.5 52.1 52.1 Remains the same 14.5 14.3 40% Somewhat improved 46.2 46.1 Greatly improved 24.7 24.7 20% 23 23.2 26.2 26.2 13.7 13.7 4.8 5.1 9.8 9.8 0% 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.5 Aug Nov Aug Nov Aug Nov Aug Nov '08 '08 '08 '08 '08 '08 '08 '08

Sinhala Tamil Up-Country Muslims Tamil

"Some people perceive that their personal security has improved in the last year while others think it has got worse." Compared to the situation a year ago, do you think your personal security has improved or worsened?

Ethnic Breakdown

3.2 8.3 19.8 Muslim 13.4 40.7 Don't know/Not sure 14.6 16.0 Got much worse 22.1 20.4 Up-Country Tamil 27.6 Got worse 13.3 0.6 Remains the same 6.1 32.7 Somewhat improved Tamil 28.6 30.6 Greatly improved 2.0

4.0 0.4 4.4 Sinhala 27.3 46.2 17.7

0204060

Change of Opinion from August '08 to November 08'

100% 2.4 6.3 4.00.4 3.2 6.1 3.2 3 4.4 14.4 16.0 8.3 27.4 80% 24.4 27.3 32.7 19.8 44.4 22.1 Don't know/Not sure 34.5 Got much worse 13.4 60% 24.6 Got worse 28.5 20.4 Remains the same 28.6 40% 46.2 10.7 Somewhat improved 40.7 42.1 Greatly improved 42.3 27.6 27.8 23.4 20% 30.6 17.7 3.1 14.6 10.1 7.1 3.1 13.3 11.5 0% 3.200.02.0 2.6 0.6 Aug Nov Aug Nov Aug Nov Aug Nov '08 '08 '08 '08 '08 '08 '08 '08

Sinhala Tamil Up-Country Muslims Tamil

Sri Lanka In your opinion, Sri Lanka belongs to…

Ethnic Breakdown

1.6 96.1 Muslim 0.0 2.4 Don’t Know

3.8 87.9 Up-Country Tamil 4.4 Sri Lanka belongs to 3.8 all citizens equally

1.0 Sri Lanka belongs to 98.0 Tamil 0.0 the Sinhalese community Sri Lanka belongs to 1.6 83.4 Sinhala Buddhists Sinhala 5.1 9.9

0 20406080100

Tamil Nadu & India Recent news reports said that there have been agitations in Tamil Nadu against the Indian central government on the situation in Sri Lanka saying that India should intervene in Sri Lanka to resolve the conflict. Have you heard of this?

Ethnic Breakdown

51.6 Muslim 48.4

28.7 No Up Country Tamil 71.3 Yes

4.0 Tamil 96.0

32.3 Sinhala 67.7

0 20406080100

If yes, will you approve or disapprove if India intervenes in Sri Lanka to solve the ethnic problem?

Ethnic Breakdown

9.8 Muslim 38.5 51.6

6.9 No Answer Up Country Tamil 0.8 92.3 Disapprove

Approve 6.3 Tamil 10.5 83.2

9.3 Sinhala 74.0 16.7

0 20406080100

How important is India’s involvement in the followings?

In initiating peace with the tigers

Ethnic Breakdown

27.3 Muslim 51.5 21.2

Not Important 2.2 Up Country Tamil 33.8 Somewhat 64.0 Important 13.0 Very Important Tamil 22.8 64.1

65.8 Sinhala 27.2 7.0

020406080

In the government’s war effort

Ethnic Breakdown

44.0 Muslim 39.3 16.7

Not Important 27.1 Up Country Tamil 29.5 Somewhat 43.4 Important

62.9 Very Important Tamil 16.9 20.2

58.4 Sinhala 29.3 12.4

0 20406080

In government presenting a political solution

Ethnic Breakdown

27.4 Muslim 54.9 17.7

Not Important 6.7 Up Country Tamil 27.5 Somewhat 65.8 Important Very Important 13.0 Tamil 37.0 50.0

63.7 Sinhala 29.2 7.1

020406080

The Verdict The Supreme Court on October 8, 2008 upheld that former President Chandrika Kumarathunga has misused her powers while in her Presidency. Are you aware of this verdict?

Ethnic Breakdown

77.2 Muslim 22.8

84.0 No Up Country Tamil 16.0 Yes

39.0 Tamil 61.0

47.4 Sinhala 52.6

020406080100

In your opinion, will this measure prevent future abuses of power in the Presidency of Sri Lanka?

Ethnic Breakdown

6.8 28.8 Muslim 22.0 42.4

3.4 58.6 Up Country Tamil 0.0 37.9 Don’t Know 15.0 20.0 Not Sure Tamil 25.0 40.0 No 6.1 31.0 Yes Sinhala 17.4 45.6

0204060

13th Amendment Are you aware of the 13th Amendment to the Constitution that introduced Provincial Councils?

Ethnic Breakdown

83.5 Muslim 16.5

71.8 Up Country Tamil No 28.2

Yes 54.5 Tamil 45.5

70.8 Sinhala 29.2

0 20406080100

In your opinion, how far should a political solution to the ethnic conflict include the 13th Amendment?

Ethnic Breakdown

Don’t Know

11.9 16.7 Muslim 26.2 28.6 The political solution should go 16.7 beyond the 13th Amendment 20.0 58.0 The political solution should fully Up Country Tamil 6.0 14.0 implement the 13th Amendment 2.0

20.5 The political solution should 18.2 implement some provisions of Tamil 15.9 27.3 the 13th Amendment 18.2 The 13th Amendment should 38.8 play no part in the political 1.6 Sinhala 8.7 solution 42.9 8.1

0 20406080

The President Please indicate your level of satisfaction with President Rajapakse’s performance in the following aspects:

The maintenance of law and order

Ethnic Breakdown

8.4 19.1 No Response Muslim 21.1 42.2 Very Dissatisfied 9.2 10.4 Somewhat Dissatisfied 28.6 Up Country Tamil 21.4 Somewhat Satisfied 33.5 6.0 Very Satisfied 9.2 48.0 Tamil 13.3 29.6 0.0 2.8 0.3 Sinhala 3.7 42.7 50.5

0204060

Controlling the cost of living

Ethnic Breakdown

No Response 5.6 39.3 Muslim 30.6 Very Dissatisfied 22.2 2.4 Somewhat 6.6 Dissatisfied 45.9 Somewhat Satisfied Up Country Tamil 31.7 13.7 Very Satisfied 2.2

7.0 54.0 Tamil 16.0 22.0 1.0 3.9 7.4 Sinhala 29.6 41.0 18.0 0204060

Maintaining international relations

Ethnic Breakdown

8.4 17.1 Muslim 20.3 42.2 No Response 12.0 Very Dissatisfied 22.7 24.3 Up Country Tamil 21.0 Somewhat Dissatisfied 21.0 11.0 Somewhat Satisfied

10.2 Very Satisfied 41.8 Tamil 3.1 42.9 2.0 8.7 0.2 Sinhala 2.0 32.3 56.8

0 204060

Conducting the war

Ethnic Breakdown

14.3 No Response 20.3 Muslim 17.5 Very Dissatisfied 32.7 15.1 Somewhat Dissatisfied 20.9 30.2 Up Country Tamil 19.8 Somewhat Satisfied 15.4 13.7 Very Satisfied 14.0 64.0 Tamil 6.0 12.0 4.0 2.1 0.2 Sinhala 0.9 17.9 78.9

020406080

Handling pressure/influence from India

Ethnic Breakdown

19.6 21.6 No Response Muslim 16.4 34.0 Very Dissatisfied 8.4 32.6 Somewhat Dissatisfied 24.3 Up Country Tamil 19.9 Somewhat Satisfied 14.4 8.8 Very Satisfied 18.4 52.0 Tamil 7.1 20.4 2.0 17.6 0.2 Sinhala 1.8 33.8 46.6

0204060

Cost of Living Now I am going to read out some statements where people describe the effect of the present cost of living (COL) on their lives. Please choose the statement that best describes your situation.

Ethnic Breakdown Present COL has affected badly on my financial 59.9 situation and I live with 38.5 Muslim great difficulties 0.8 0.8 Present COL has affected my financial situation and I 77.9 20.4 live with some difficulties Up-Country 1.1 0.6 Present COL does not 41.0 affect my financial situation 53.0 and I live as same as Tamil 6.0 before Present COL does not 27.2 affect my financial situation 50.8 Sinhala and I live more 16.9 comfortably than before 5.1

0 20406080

Change of Opinion from August '08 to November 08' Present COL has affected badly on my financial situation and I live 100% with great difficulties 27.2 80% 45.8 41.0 Present COL has affected my 52.2 59.9 financial situation and I live with 66.8 some difficulties 77.9 60% 83.6 50.8 Present COL does not have any 40% affect on my financial situation and I live as same as before 47.8 53.0 41.9 20% 38.5 27.7 Present COL does not have any 16.9 20.4 15.2 affect on my financial situation and 5.9 5.1 5.9 6.0 5.0 0% 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.01.2 0.61.1 0.4 0.8 I live more comfortably than before Aug Nov Aug Nov Aug Nov Aug Nov '08 '08 '08 '08 '08 '08 '08 '08

Sinhala Tamil Up-Country Muslim

The Budget Are you aware that the government presented its third budget in Parliament recently?

Ethnic Breakdown

32.1 Muslim 67.9

Not Aware 42.9 Up Country Tamil 57.1 Aware

5.2 Tamil 94.8

4.7 Sinhala 95.3

0 20406080100120

IF aware, how closely have you followed the budget/budget speech?

Ethnic Breakdown

1.7 6.9 Don’t Know Muslim 37.6 43.9 9.8 10.7 Not followed at all Up Country 22.3 42.7 Tamil 20.4 3.9 0.0 Read/listened but did not pursue it 5.4 intentionally Tamil 41.9 31.2 21.5 Somewhat closely (Did not pursue 1.4 12.0 intentionally but paid full attention Sinhala 50.5 when I came across news/media 27.6 8.5 reports and articles) Very closely (Pursued all possible 0204060information resources intentionally)

What was your main source of information on the budget from the information sources below?

Ethnic Breakdown

0.0 39.9 5.5 None of the above Muslim 0.6 39.9 14.1 1.4 By reading the budget document 15.1 OR listening/watching the budget Up Country 12.3 Tamil 1.4 reading on media 58.9 Newspaper articles and reports 11.0 0.0 12.4 14.6 Tamil 0.0 From a member/supporter of the 58.4 political party that you support 14.6 0.3 From the analysis and articles that 21.3 22.3 appeared in mass media Sinhala 0.5 51.5 4.0 From a person known to me personally 0 204060

In your opinion, did the recent budget lower your cost of living, increased your cost of living or kept it at same levels?

Ethnic Breakdown

5.7 64.4 Muslim 20.7 9.2 1.9 Up Country 37.9 Don’t Know Tamil 57.3 2.9 Kept it at same levels 2.1 Increased my cost of living 37.9 Tamil 52.6 Lowered my cost of living 7.4 6.7 58.8 Sinhala 14.0 20.5

020406080

Global Credit Crunch How do you think that the global credit crunch will impact the Sri Lankan economy?

Ethnic Breakdown

18.2 2.3 Muslim 22.7 46.2 10.6 39.4 No impact 1.0 Up Country Tamil 4.8 21.2 Very positive 33.7 impact 5.1 Somewhat of a 1.3 positive impact Tamil 1.3 Somewhat of a 45.6 46.8 negative impact A strong negative 5.8 0.8 Impact Sinhala 3.4 63.1 26.9

020406080

Vanni Certain people say that there is a severe shortage of food, medicine and essential items in Vanni. Do you agree with this or not?

Ethnic Breakdown

47.1 Muslim 12.2 40.8

47.0 Don’t Know Up Country Tamil 3.3 No 49.7 Yes 14.3 Tamil 2.0 83.7

44.2 Sinhala 34.8 20.9

0 20406080100

The East According to various news and reports, except for some incidents of violence the situation in the East has improved considerably once the Eastern provincial elections were over. Do you agree or disagree with this opinion?

Ethnic Breakdown

57.5 Muslim 15.9 26.6

80.1 Don’t Know Up Country Tamil 6.6 13.3 Disagree

36.1 Agree Tamil 23.7 40.2

44.6 Sinhala 6.5 49.0

0 20 40 60 80 100

If agree, then how much it improved or not in the following aspects? That is, in obtaining resources for development of the region and Safety and security of the civilians?

In obtaining resources for development of the region

Ethnic Breakdown

6.9 13.7 Muslim 11.8 46.1 21.6 10.0 Greatly deteriorated 6.7 Up Country Tamil 40.0 Somewhat deteriorated 40.0 3.3 No change 1.7 Somewhat improved 3.4 Tamil 20.7 Improved considerably 34.5 39.7 0.2 0.6 Sinhala 4.4 68.4 26.4

0 20406080

Safety and security of the civilians

Ethnic Breakdown

6.9 14.7 Muslim 17.6 40.2 20.6 Greatly deteriorated 16.7 16.7 Somewhat deteriorated Up Country Tamil 40.0 26.7 No change

Somewhat improved 12.7 15.9 Improved considerably Tamil 23.8 15.9 31.7 0.7 2.4 Sinhala 3.7 67.1 26.1

0 20406080

Karuna Amman Are you aware / have you heard that Karuna was sworn in as a Member of Parliament?

Ethnic Breakdown

19.0 Muslim 26.5 54.5

40.7 Don’t Know Up-Country Tamil 17.0 No 42.3 Yes 4.0 Tamil 8.1 87.9

4.8 Sinhala 13.2 82.0

0 20406080100

If you are / have you heard that Karuna was sworn in as a Member of Parliament, some approve appointing Karuna Amman as an MP in the Parliament while others do not. In your opinion, do you approve or disapprove of Karuna’s appointment to the Parliament?

Ethnic Breakdown

28.3 Muslim 45.7 26.1

46.8

Up Country Tamil 11.7 41.6 Don’t Know

Disapprove 33.7 Tamil 24.4 Approve 41.8

25.1 Sinhala 27.8 47.1

0204060

Various opinions have been expressed about the appointment of Karuna Amman as an MP in the Parliament. To what extent do you agree/disagree to the following statements?

A true sign of accommodating minorities

Ethnic Breakdown

38.3 26.3 Muslim 6.8 18.8 9.8 45.3 9.3 Up Country Tamil 5.3 29.3 Don’t Know 10.7 Do Not Agree At All 26.5 Do Not Agree 10.8 Somewhat Agree Tamil 13.3 21.7 Totally Agree 27.7 19.0 3.4 Sinhala 11.5 42.9 23.2

0204060

A sign of democracy

Ethnic Breakdown

24.4 7.3 Muslim 13.6 34.6 20.1 46.7 9.3 Up Country Tamil 6.7 26.5 Don’t Know 10.7 Do Not Agree At All 28.4 Do Not Agree 8.6 Somewhat Agree Tamil 18.5 17.3 Totally Agree 27.2 20.2 3.7 Sinhala 14.4 39.7 22.0

0 204060

Travesty of justice

Ethnic Breakdown

38.7 21.9 Muslim 10.2 16.1 13.1 55.4 12.2 Up Country Tamil 9.5 17.6 Don’t Know 5.4 Do Not Agree At All 27.5 Do Not Agree 5.0 Somewhat Agree Tamil 22.5 26.3 Totally Agree 18.8 34.1 8.6 Sinhala 37.4 12.8 7.1

0204060

Barack Obama The US presidential election was held on November 4. Barack Obama has been elected as the new US President. Have you heard about this?

Ethnic Breakdown

33.9 Muslim 66.1

No 63.5 Up Country Tamil Yes 36.5

2.1 Tamil 97.9

24.8 Sinhala 75.2

0 20406080100

IF yes, how do you think that the election of Barack Obama will affect Sri Lanka and the ethnic conflict? positively or negatively?

Assisting in development of Sri Lanka

Ethnic Breakdown

39.9 12.5 Muslim 2.4 45.2

28.8 Dont Know 43.9 Up Country Tamil No Impact 0.0 27.3 Negatively Positively 35.1 28.7 Tamil 5.3 30.9

43.9 11.0 Sinhala 4.0 41.1

0 204060

Assisting in finding peace

Ethnic Breakdown

40.7 14.4 Muslim 0.6 44.3

28.8 Dont Know 43.9 Up Country Tamil No Impact 0.0 27.3 Negatively Positively 38.7 30.1 Tamil 4.3 26.9

44.4 11.1 Sinhala 4.7 39.8

0204060

Annex

District Sample (weighted) Distribution in November 2008

DISTRICT TOTAL Colombo 205 Gampaha 189 Kalutara 95 Kandy 116 Matale 40 Nuwara Eliya 65 Galle 92 Matara 68 Hambantota 50 Batticaloa 47 Ampara 56 Trincomalee 33 Kurunegala 141 Puttlam 67 Anuradhapura 69 Polonnaruwa 33 Badulla 73 Moneragala 37 Ratnapura 93 Kegalle 71 NATIONAL 1642

Ethnic sample (weighted) distribution in November 2008 (Convenient Sample in the Districts of Trincomalee, Ampara and Batticaloa)

ETHNICITY TOTAL Sinhala 1107 Tamil 99 Up-Country Tamil 182 Muslim 254 NATIONAL 1642

Sampling Methodology

Given that the goal of the Peace Confidence Index (PCI) study is to measure the fluctuations in public confidence levels towards the peace process over time it is essential that the study be conducted repetitively with equal pauses during the study. Hence, from May 2001 to February 2004, PCI was conducted bi-monthly, however, from March 2005 onwards, SI decided to conduct the study quarterly to make the PCI more efficient.

The study is conducted using a structured questionnaire that is administered to a sample of approximately 1642 respondents during each phase of the study. This sample is adequate to capture the minimum ethnic diversity within the span of ten days of fieldwork. Although it is undeniable that an individual’s opinion on the peace process is influenced by a number of factors, the ethnic factor, which is the most important and influential, is the sole factor that has been accommodated in this model.

The total sample is distributed amongst 20 administrative districts (strata) of Sri Lanka, excluding the Northern Province due to access and logistic issues. The sample size assigned to each stratum is approximately equal to the population proportions. However, some districts are over sampled due to the ethnic heterogeneity but the over sampling biases are eliminated by weighting the sample.

A sample is allocated to a particular ethnicity within a district only if the population proportion of that particular ethnicity exceeds 6%. A Divisional Secretariat (DS) is selected as the primary sampling unit using the Simple Random Sampling technique while the Grama Niladhari Divisions (GND) in a DS are selected randomly as the secondary sampling unit using the ‘Grama Niladhari Divisions of Sri Lanka 1996’ published by the Department of Census and Statistics as the sample frame.

To maintain the quality of the fieldwork and ensure a maximum dispersion of the sample within a DS, enumerators are allowed to conduct a maximum of ten interviews a day in a GND. Within a given GND, the enumerator is advised to select a starting point randomly and proceed with interviews using the random walk (right hand rule) technique in order to assure the random selection of households. In the case of urban areas, the interviewer is instructed to skip a house while selecting the households, thus resulting in the interview-taking place at every alternative household. As the final sampling unit, the respondent is chosen from the household using the ‘KISH’ grid thus ensuring that each member of the household has an equal chance of being selected to the PCI sample.

The PCI national level estimates are subject to a 3% error margin with a .95 confidence level. It is noteworthy to mention here that the PCI model does not support the regional level analysis at the same level of precision.

Special Methodological Note

The Tamil Community from the district of Colombo and the Sinhala, Tamil, Muslim and Up Country Tamil communities from the Eastern province were sampled using a “convenient” sampling technique. This method of sampling was used due to the security situation prevailing in the country. Accordingly, the enumerators were instructed to select the particular household by virtue of the ease with which it was accessible. Thereby, the results presented in this report that refers to the Eastern Province and the Tamil community cannot be generalised as they are not representative of the entire population in Sri Lanka.