DOCSLIB.ORG

A Fourier-Wavelet Monte Carlo Method for Fractal Random Fields

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
A Fourier-Wavelet Monte Carlo Method for Fractal Random Fields JOURNAL OF COMPUTATIONAL PHYSICS 132, 384±408 (1997) ARTICLE NO. CP965647 A Fourier±Wavelet Monte Carlo Method for Fractal Random Fields Frank W. Elliott Jr., David J. Horntrop, and Andrew J. Majda Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, 251 Mercer Street, New York, New York 10012 Received August 2, 1996; revised December 23, 1996 2 2H k[v(x) 2 v(y)] l 5 CHux 2 yu , (1.1) A new hierarchical method for the Monte Carlo simulation of random ®elds called the Fourier±wavelet method is developed and where 0 , H , 1 is the Hurst exponent and k?l denotes applied to isotropic Gaussian random ®elds with power law spectral the expected value. density functions. This technique is based upon the orthogonal Here we develop a new Monte Carlo method based upon decomposition of the Fourier stochastic integral representation of the ®eld using wavelets. The Meyer wavelet is used here because a wavelet expansion of the Fourier space representation of its rapid decay properties allow for a very compact representation the fractal random ®elds in (1.1). This method is capable of the ®eld. The Fourier±wavelet method is shown to be straightfor- of generating a velocity ®eld with the Kolmogoroff spec- ward to implement, given the nature of the necessary precomputa- trum (H 5 Ad in (1.1)) over many (10 to 15) decades of tions and the run-time calculations, and yields comparable results scaling behavior comparable to the physical space multi- with scaling behavior over as many decades as the physical space multiwavelet methods developed recently by two of the authors. wavelet algorithm developed by two of the authors in re- However, the Fourier±wavelet method developed here is more ¯ex- cent work [5±7]. However, since the Fourier±wavelet ible and, in particular, applies to anisotropic spectra generated method developed below is a spectral method, it is much through solutions of differential equations. Simulation results using more ¯exible for generating random ®elds with anisotropic this new technique and the well-known nonhierarchical simulation spectra and, in particular, spectra generated through the technique, the randomization method, are given and compared for both a simple shear layer model problem as well as a two-dimen- solutions of partial differential equations. sional isotropic Gaussian random ®eld. The Fourier±wavelet A wide variety of computational approaches have been method results are more accurate for statistical quantities de- used to generate fractal random ®elds. Some of these algo- pending on moments higher than order 2, in addition to showing rithms involve hierarchical methods [4±7] while others uti- a quite smooth decay to zero on the scales smaller than the scaling lize nonhierarchical methods [8±12] with varying degrees regime when compared with the randomization method results. The only situation in which the nonhierarchical randomization method of success. Hierarchical methods involve the decomposi- is more computationally ef®cient occurs when no more than four tion of a random ®eld into distinct characteristic scales. decades of scaling behavior are needed and the statistical quantities Because of the relatively compact nature of this type of of interest depend only on second moments. Q 1997 Academic Press representation, hierarchical methods are particularly at- tractive for simulating random ®elds with large regimes of scaling behavior. The nonhierarchical methods, such as the 1. INTRODUCTION randomization method [8] and its variants [9], as well as the The generation of random velocity ®elds which are frac- moving average method [10, 11], typically require strong tal and self-similar over many scales by accurate and ef®- bandwidth limitations in the spectrum and only produce cient Monte Carlo methods is an important and challenging a small number of decades of scaling behavior. One com- problem in a wide variety of applications including turbu- monly used hierarchical simulation technique, successive lent diffusion in the environment [1], solute transport in random addition [4, 13], was recently shown in [14] to be groundwater [2], and random topography in statistical inconsistent with a stationary random ®eld. Recently, two physics [3, 4]. In the simplest context of a zero mean sta- of the authors have introduced, validated, and used a new tionary scalar Gaussian random ®eld v(x) in one dimen- hierarchical method based upon a multiwavelet expansion sion, these fractal ®elds are completely characterized by (MWE) of the moving average stochastic integral represen- the mean tation to generate fractal random ®elds as well as passive scalar advection with such ®elds [5±7, 10]. Even though the MWE technique is limited to random ®elds with power kv(x)l 5 0 law spectra, it provides for the accurate generation of ®elds with an excess of 12 decades of scaling behavior. Below and the structure function we will introduce the Fourier±wavelet method which is 384 0021-9991/97 $25.00 Copyright 1997 by Academic Press All rights of reproduction in any form reserved. A FOURIER±WAVELET MONTE CARLO METHOD 385 based upon a wavelet expansion of the Fourier stochastic 2. DEVELOPMENT OF THE integral representation of a homogeneous Gaussian ran- FOURIER±WAVELET METHOD dom ®eld. The Fourier±wavelet method has a simpler form than the MWE method and can be applied to a wider In this section we develop the Fourier±wavelet method. variety of physical problems since the Fourier±wavelet We begin by recalling the general theory of random ®elds method can be applied to general spectra. Further discus- in one dimension and using this theory to develop our sion of the differences between the MWE approach and the method in full generality. Then we discuss the choice of Fourier±wavelet method is given at the end of Section 2. basis for an accurate, sparse approximation of the ®eld. We now give an outline of the remaining portion of this Finally, we detail a simple technique for implementing this paper. Section 2 begins with a brief description of the method and analyze the errors involved. In this section we stochastic integral representation of a homogeneous restrict ourselves to one-dimensional ®elds, taking up the Gaussian random ®eld and a brief review of wavelet theory subject of two-dimensional ®elds in Section 3. For a rigor- prior to actually giving the theoretical Fourier±wavelet ous generalization of such one-dimensional results to representation of the ®eld as a double summation over the higher dimensional ®elds, we refer the reader to earlier product of Gaussian weights and deterministic physical work of two of the authors in [6, 15]. space ``kernels.'' The Meyer wavelet and its Fourier trans- The description of the general structure begins with a form are then rigorously shown to have the appropriate brief review of the theory of Gaussian random functions properties in order to ensure that the terms in the Fourier± and their representation and continues by introducing the wavelet representation of the ®eld decay to a high polyno- necessary wavelet theory used to change the spectral repre- mial order. Given this rather rapid convergence, the effect sentation to the Fourier±wavelet representation. We then of the truncation of the doubly in®nite sum in the Fourier± turn to truncation of the Fourier±wavelet representation wavelet representation to give the simulation method is to produce an ef®cient, hierarchical method for generating shown to be rather small. Section 2 closes with a discussion one-dimensional random ®elds. Finally, we discuss our se- of some theoretical implementation issues including the lection of the Meyer wavelet as an ef®cient choice for the ef®cient generation of the needed Gaussian weights and Fourier±wavelet method. the interpolations required to evaluate the deterministic In our discussion of the implementation of the method, ``kernels'' at values other than those precomputed using we consider several key issues relating to the ef®ciency a fast Fourier transform. and accuracy of the method. Simulation of the random The purpose of Section 3 is to give some simulation ®eld occurs in two phases, a precomputation phase and results using the Fourier±wavelet method and make com- a run-time phase. In the precomputation phase, a collec- parisons with both analytic formulas and simulation results tion of kernels is computed using the discrete Fourier using a popular nonhierarchical method, the randomiza- transform. For this procedure, we analyze the effects of tion method [8]. Section 3 begins with a discussion of the aliasing and interpolation on the accuracy of these simple shear layer model problem and the exactly solvable kernels. In the run-time phase, the kernels are eval- statistical quantities that will be used as benchmarks for uated at several points and summed with random weights. the Monte Carlo simulations. Simulation results from the For the computation of the random weights, we describe Fourier±wavelet method and randomization method are a procedure which is adapted to sparse summations then given and compared. It is seen that the Fourier± of the kind that occur in the Fourier±wavelet wavelet method gives more accurate results for statistics method. depending on higher than second-order moments, as well as showing a smoother decay to zero on the scales below 2.1. General Structure of the Fourier±Wavelet Method the scaling regime than the randomization method. How- ever, it is shown that the randomization method is more In preparation to discuss our method, we now review computationally ef®cient if only four or ®ve decades of the basic theory of homogeneous Gaussian random func- scaling behavior are desired and if the statistical quantities tions on the real line. Our method extends to two and of interest depend only on second moments. Section 3 three dimensions by using the plane-wave construction concludes with a discussion of the simulation of a two- which was devised in [15] and implemented in conjunction dimensional isotropic Gaussian random ®eld.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Kalman and Particle Filtering
    Abstract: The Kalman and Particle filters are algorithms that recursively update an estimate of the state and find the innovations driving a stochastic process given a sequence of observations. The Kalman filter accomplishes this goal by linear projections, while the Particle filter does so by a sequential Monte Carlo method. With the state estimates, we can forecast and smooth the stochastic process. With the innovations, we can estimate the parameters of the model. The article discusses how to set a dynamic model in a state-space form, derives the Kalman and Particle filters, and explains how to use them for estimation. Kalman and Particle Filtering The Kalman and Particle filters are algorithms that recursively update an estimate of the state and find the innovations driving a stochastic process given a sequence of observations. The Kalman filter accomplishes this goal by linear projections, while the Particle filter does so by a sequential Monte Carlo method. Since both filters start with a state-space representation of the stochastic processes of interest, section 1 presents the state-space form of a dynamic model. Then, section 2 intro- duces the Kalman filter and section 3 develops the Particle filter. For extended expositions of this material, see Doucet, de Freitas, and Gordon (2001), Durbin and Koopman (2001), and Ljungqvist and Sargent (2004). 1. The state-space representation of a dynamic model A large class of dynamic models can be represented by a state-space form: Xt+1 = ϕ (Xt,Wt+1; γ) (1) Yt = g (Xt,Vt; γ) . (2) This representation handles a stochastic process by finding three objects: a vector that l describes the position of the system (a state, Xt X R ) and two functions, one mapping ∈ ⊂ 1 the state today into the state tomorrow (the transition equation, (1)) and one mapping the state into observables, Yt (the measurement equation, (2)).
    [Show full text]
  • Lecture 19: Wavelet Compression of Time Series and Images
    Lecture 19: Wavelet compression of time series and images c Christopher S. Bretherton Winter 2014 Ref: Matlab Wavelet Toolbox help. 19.1 Wavelet compression of a time series The last section of wavelet leleccum notoolbox.m demonstrates the use of wavelet compression on a time series. The idea is to keep the wavelet coefficients of largest amplitude and zero out the small ones. 19.2 Wavelet analysis/compression of an image Wavelet analysis is easily extended to two-dimensional images or datasets (data matrices), by first doing a wavelet transform of each column of the matrix, then transforming each row of the result (see wavelet image). The wavelet coeffi- cient matrix has the highest level (largest-scale) averages in the first rows/columns, then successively smaller detail scales further down the rows/columns. The ex- ample also shows fine results with 50-fold data compression. 19.3 Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) Given a continuous signal u(t) and an analyzing wavelet (x), the CWT has the form Z 1 s − t W (λ, t) = λ−1=2 ( )u(s)ds (19.3.1) −∞ λ Here λ, the scale, is a continuous variable. We insist that have mean zero and that its square integrates to 1. The continuous Haar wavelet is defined: 8 < 1 0 < t < 1=2 (t) = −1 1=2 < t < 1 (19.3.2) : 0 otherwise W (λ, t) is proportional to the difference of running means of u over successive intervals of length λ/2. 1 Amath 482/582 Lecture 19 Bretherton - Winter 2014 2 In practice, for a discrete time series, the integral is evaluated as a Riemann sum using the Matlab wavelet toolbox function cwt.
    [Show full text]
  • Adaptive Wavelet Clustering for Highly Noisy Data
    Adaptive Wavelet Clustering for Highly Noisy Data Zengjian Chen Jiayi Liu Yihe Deng Department of Computer Science Department of Computer Science Department of Mathematics Huazhong University of University of Massachusetts Amherst University of California, Los Angeles Science and Technology Massachusetts, USA California, USA Wuhan, China [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Kun He* John E. Hopcroft Department of Computer Science Department of Computer Science Huazhong University of Science and Technology Cornell University Wuhan, China Ithaca, NY, USA [email protected] [email protected] Abstract—In this paper we make progress on the unsupervised Based on the pioneering work of Sheikholeslami that applies task of mining arbitrarily shaped clusters in highly noisy datasets, wavelet transform, originally used for signal processing, on which is a task present in many real-world applications. Based spatial data clustering [12], we propose a new wavelet based on the fundamental work that first applies a wavelet transform to data clustering, we propose an adaptive clustering algorithm, algorithm called AdaWave that can adaptively and effectively denoted as AdaWave, which exhibits favorable characteristics for uncover clusters in highly noisy data. To tackle general appli- clustering. By a self-adaptive thresholding technique, AdaWave cations, we assume that the clusters in a dataset do not follow is parameter free and can handle data in various situations. any specific distribution and can be arbitrarily shaped. It is deterministic, fast in linear time, order-insensitive, shape- To show the hardness of the clustering task, we first design insensitive, robust to highly noisy data, and requires no pre- knowledge on data models.
    [Show full text]
  • A Practical Guide to Wavelet Analysis
    A Practical Guide to Wavelet Analysis Christopher Torrence and Gilbert P. Compo Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado ABSTRACT A practical step-by-step guide to wavelet analysis is given, with examples taken from time series of the El Niño– Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The guide includes a comparison to the windowed Fourier transform, the choice of an appropriate wavelet basis function, edge effects due to finite-length time series, and the relationship between wavelet scale and Fourier frequency. New statistical significance tests for wavelet power spectra are developed by deriving theo- retical wavelet spectra for white and red noise processes and using these to establish significance levels and confidence intervals. It is shown that smoothing in time or scale can be used to increase the confidence of the wavelet spectrum. Empirical formulas are given for the effect of smoothing on significance levels and confidence intervals. Extensions to wavelet analysis such as filtering, the power Hovmöller, cross-wavelet spectra, and coherence are described. The statistical significance tests are used to give a quantitative measure of changes in ENSO variance on interdecadal timescales. Using new datasets that extend back to 1871, the Niño3 sea surface temperature and the Southern Oscilla- tion index show significantly higher power during 1880–1920 and 1960–90, and lower power during 1920–60, as well as a possible 15-yr modulation of variance. The power Hovmöller of sea level pressure shows significant variations in 2–8-yr wavelet power in both longitude and time. 1. Introduction complete description of geophysical applications can be found in Foufoula-Georgiou and Kumar (1995), Wavelet analysis is becoming a common tool for while a theoretical treatment of wavelet analysis is analyzing localized variations of power within a time given in Daubechies (1992).
    [Show full text]
  • An Overview of Wavelet Transform Concepts and Applications
    An overview of wavelet transform concepts and applications Christopher Liner, University of Houston February 26, 2010 Abstract The continuous wavelet transform utilizing a complex Morlet analyzing wavelet has a close connection to the Fourier transform and is a powerful analysis tool for decomposing broadband wavefield data. A wide range of seismic wavelet applications have been reported over the last three decades, and the free Seismic Unix processing system now contains a code (succwt) based on the work reported here. Introduction The continuous wavelet transform (CWT) is one method of investigating the time-frequency details of data whose spectral content varies with time (non-stationary time series). Moti- vation for the CWT can be found in Goupillaud et al. [12], along with a discussion of its relationship to the Fourier and Gabor transforms. As a brief overview, we note that French geophysicist J. Morlet worked with non- stationary time series in the late 1970's to find an alternative to the short-time Fourier transform (STFT). The STFT was known to have poor localization in both time and fre- quency, although it was a first step beyond the standard Fourier transform in the analysis of such data. Morlet's original wavelet transform idea was developed in collaboration with the- oretical physicist A. Grossmann, whose contributions included an exact inversion formula. A series of fundamental papers flowed from this collaboration [16, 12, 13], and connections were soon recognized between Morlet's wavelet transform and earlier methods, including harmonic analysis, scale-space representations, and conjugated quadrature filters. For fur- ther details, the interested reader is referred to Daubechies' [7] account of the early history of the wavelet transform.
    [Show full text]
  • Fourier, Wavelet and Monte Carlo Methods in Computational Finance
    Fourier, Wavelet and Monte Carlo Methods in Computational Finance Kees Oosterlee1;2 1CWI, Amsterdam 2Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands AANMPDE-9-16, 7/7/2016 Kees Oosterlee (CWI, TU Delft) Comp. Finance AANMPDE-9-16 1 / 51 Joint work with Fang Fang, Marjon Ruijter, Luis Ortiz, Shashi Jain, Alvaro Leitao, Fei Cong, Qian Feng Agenda Derivatives pricing, Feynman-Kac Theorem Fourier methods Basics of COS method; Basics of SWIFT method; Options with early-exercise features COS method for Bermudan options Monte Carlo method BSDEs, BCOS method (very briefly) Kees Oosterlee (CWI, TU Delft) Comp. Finance AANMPDE-9-16 1 / 51 Agenda Derivatives pricing, Feynman-Kac Theorem Fourier methods Basics of COS method; Basics of SWIFT method; Options with early-exercise features COS method for Bermudan options Monte Carlo method BSDEs, BCOS method (very briefly) Joint work with Fang Fang, Marjon Ruijter, Luis Ortiz, Shashi Jain, Alvaro Leitao, Fei Cong, Qian Feng Kees Oosterlee (CWI, TU Delft) Comp. Finance AANMPDE-9-16 1 / 51 Feynman-Kac theorem: Z T v(t; x) = E g(s; Xs )ds + h(XT ) ; t where Xs is the solution to the FSDE dXs = µ(Xs )ds + σ(Xs )d!s ; Xt = x: Feynman-Kac Theorem The linear partial differential equation: @v(t; x) + Lv(t; x) + g(t; x) = 0; v(T ; x) = h(x); @t with operator 1 Lv(t; x) = µ(x)Dv(t; x) + σ2(x)D2v(t; x): 2 Kees Oosterlee (CWI, TU Delft) Comp. Finance AANMPDE-9-16 2 / 51 Feynman-Kac Theorem The linear partial differential equation: @v(t; x) + Lv(t; x) + g(t; x) = 0; v(T ; x) = h(x); @t with operator 1 Lv(t; x) = µ(x)Dv(t; x) + σ2(x)D2v(t; x): 2 Feynman-Kac theorem: Z T v(t; x) = E g(s; Xs )ds + h(XT ) ; t where Xs is the solution to the FSDE dXs = µ(Xs )ds + σ(Xs )d!s ; Xt = x: Kees Oosterlee (CWI, TU Delft) Comp.
    [Show full text]
  • Efficient Monte Carlo Methods for Estimating Failure Probabilities
    Reliability Engineering and System Safety 165 (2017) 376–394 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Reliability Engineering and System Safety journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ress ffi E cient Monte Carlo methods for estimating failure probabilities MARK ⁎ Andres Albana, Hardik A. Darjia,b, Atsuki Imamurac, Marvin K. Nakayamac, a Mathematical Sciences Dept., New Jersey Institute of Technology, Newark, NJ 07102, USA b Mechanical Engineering Dept., New Jersey Institute of Technology, Newark, NJ 07102, USA c Computer Science Dept., New Jersey Institute of Technology, Newark, NJ 07102, USA ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT Keywords: We develop efficient Monte Carlo methods for estimating the failure probability of a system. An example of the Probabilistic safety assessment problem comes from an approach for probabilistic safety assessment of nuclear power plants known as risk- Risk analysis informed safety-margin characterization, but it also arises in other contexts, e.g., structural reliability, Structural reliability catastrophe modeling, and finance. We estimate the failure probability using different combinations of Uncertainty simulation methodologies, including stratified sampling (SS), (replicated) Latin hypercube sampling (LHS), Monte Carlo and conditional Monte Carlo (CMC). We prove theorems establishing that the combination SS+LHS (resp., SS Variance reduction Confidence intervals +CMC+LHS) has smaller asymptotic variance than SS (resp., SS+LHS). We also devise asymptotically valid (as Nuclear regulation the overall sample size grows large) upper confidence bounds for the failure probability for the methods Risk-informed safety-margin characterization considered. The confidence bounds may be employed to perform an asymptotically valid probabilistic safety assessment. We present numerical results demonstrating that the combination SS+CMC+LHS can result in substantial variance reductions compared to stratified sampling alone.
    [Show full text]
  • Wavelet Clustering in Time Series Analysis
    Wavelet clustering in time series analysis Carlo Cattani and Armando Ciancio Abstract In this paper we shortly summarize the many advantages of the discrete wavelet transform in the analysis of time series. The data are transformed into clusters of wavelet coefficients and rate of change of the wavelet coefficients, both belonging to a suitable finite dimensional domain. It is shown that the wavelet coefficients are strictly related to the scheme of finite differences, thus giving information on the first and second order properties of the data. In particular, this method is tested on financial data, such as stock pricings, by characterizing the trends and the abrupt changes. The wavelet coefficients projected into the phase space give rise to characteristic cluster which are connected with the volativility of the time series. By their localization they represent a sufficiently good and new estimate of the risk. Mathematics Subject Classification: 35A35, 42C40, 41A15, 47A58; 65T60, 65D07. Key words: Wavelet, Haar function, time series, stock pricing. 1 Introduction In the analysis of time series such as financial data, one of the main task is to con- struct a model able to capture the main features of the data, such as fluctuations, trends, jumps, etc. If the model is both well fitting with the already available data and is expressed by some mathematical relations then it can be temptatively used to forecast the evolution of the time series according to the given model. However, in general any reasonable model depends on an extremely large amount of parameters both deterministic and/or probabilistic [10, 18, 23, 2, 1, 29, 24, 25, 3] implying a com- plex set of complicated mathematical relations.
    [Show full text]
  • Statistical Hypothesis Testing in Wavelet Analysis: Theoretical Developments and Applications to India Rainfall Justin A
    Nonlin. Processes Geophys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-2018-55 Manuscript under review for journal Nonlin. Processes Geophys. Discussion started: 13 December 2018 c Author(s) 2018. CC BY 4.0 License. Statistical Hypothesis Testing in Wavelet Analysis: Theoretical Developments and Applications to India Rainfall Justin A. Schulte1 1Science Systems and Applications, Inc,, Lanham, 20782, United States 5 Correspondence to: Justin A. Schulte ([email protected]) Abstract Statistical hypothesis tests in wavelet analysis are reviewed and developed. The output of a recently developed cumulative area-wise is shown to be the ensemble mean of individual estimates of statistical significance calculated from a geometric test assessing statistical significance based on the area of contiguous regions (i.e. patches) 10 of point-wise significance. This new interpretation is then used to construct a simplified version of the cumulative area-wise test to improve computational efficiency. Ideal examples are used to show that the geometric and cumulative area-wise tests are unable to differentiate features arising from singularity-like structures from those associated with periodicities. A cumulative arc-wise test is therefore developed to test for periodicities in a strict sense. A previously proposed topological significance test is formalized using persistent homology profiles (PHPs) measuring the number 15 of patches and holes corresponding to the set of all point-wise significance values. Ideal examples show that the PHPs can be used to distinguish time series containing signal components from those that are purely noise. To demonstrate the practical uses of the existing and newly developed statistical methodologies, a first comprehensive wavelet analysis of India rainfall is also provided.
    [Show full text]
  • Basic Statistics and Monte-Carlo Method -2
    Applied Statistical Mechanics Lecture Note - 10 Basic Statistics and Monte-Carlo Method -2 고려대학교 화공생명공학과 강정원 Table of Contents 1. General Monte Carlo Method 2. Variance Reduction Techniques 3. Metropolis Monte Carlo Simulation 1.1 Introduction Monte Carlo Method Any method that uses random numbers Random sampling the population Application • Science and engineering • Management and finance For given subject, various techniques and error analysis will be presented Subject : evaluation of definite integral b I = ρ(x)dx a 1.1 Introduction Monte Carlo method can be used to compute integral of any dimension d (d-fold integrals) Error comparison of d-fold integrals Simpson’s rule,… E ∝ N −1/ d − Monte Carlo method E ∝ N 1/ 2 purely statistical, not rely on the dimension ! Monte Carlo method WINS, when d >> 3 1.2 Hit-or-Miss Method Evaluation of a definite integral b I = ρ(x)dx a h X X X ≥ ρ X h (x) for any x X Probability that a random point reside inside X O the area O O I N' O O r = ≈ O O (b − a)h N a b N : Total number of points N’ : points that reside inside the region N' I ≈ (b − a)h N 1.2 Hit-or-Miss Method Start Set N : large integer N’ = 0 h X X X X X Choose a point x in [a,b] = − + X Loop x (b a)u1 a O N times O O y = hu O O Choose a point y in [0,h] 2 O O a b if [x,y] reside inside then N’ = N’+1 I = (b-a) h (N’/N) End 1.2 Hit-or-Miss Method Error Analysis of the Hit-or-Miss Method It is important to know how accurate the result of simulations are The rule of 3σ’s Identifying Random Variable N = 1 X X n N n=1 From
    [Show full text]
  • Wavelet Cross-Correlation Analysis of Wind Speed Series Generated by ANN Based Models Grégory Turbelin, Pierre Ngae, Michel Grignon
    View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Archive Ouverte en Sciences de l'Information et de la Communication Wavelet cross-correlation analysis of wind speed series generated by ANN based models Grégory Turbelin, Pierre Ngae, Michel Grignon To cite this version: Grégory Turbelin, Pierre Ngae, Michel Grignon. Wavelet cross-correlation analysis of wind speed series generated by ANN based models. Renewable Energy, Elsevier, 2009, 34, 4, pp.1024–1032. 10.1016/j.renene.2008.08.016. hal-01178999 HAL Id: hal-01178999 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01178999 Submitted on 18 Nov 2019 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. Wavelet cross correlation analysis of wind speed series generated by ANN based models Grégory Turbelin*, Pierre Ngae, Michel Grignon Laboratoire de Mécanique et d’Energétique d’Evry (LMEE),Université d’Evry Val d’Essonne 40 rue du Pelvoux, 91020 Evry Cedex, France Abstract To obtain, over medium term periods, wind speed time series on a site, located in the southern part of the Paris region (France), where long recording are not available, but where nearby meteorological stations provide large series of data, use was made of ANN based models.
    [Show full text]
  • A Tutorial on Quantile Estimation Via Monte Carlo
    A Tutorial on Quantile Estimation via Monte Carlo Hui Dong and Marvin K. Nakayama Abstract Quantiles are frequently used to assess risk in a wide spectrum of applica- tion areas, such as finance, nuclear engineering, and service industries. This tutorial discusses Monte Carlo simulation methods for estimating a quantile, also known as a percentile or value-at-risk, where p of a distribution’s mass lies below its p-quantile. We describe a general approach that is often followed to construct quantile estimators, and show how it applies when employing naive Monte Carlo or variance-reduction techniques. We review some large-sample properties of quantile estimators. We also describe procedures for building a confidence interval for a quantile, which provides a measure of the sampling error. 1 Introduction Numerous application settings have adopted quantiles as a way of measuring risk. For a fixed constant 0 < p < 1, the p-quantile of a continuous random variable is a constant x such that p of the distribution’s mass lies below x. For example, the median is the 0:5-quantile. In finance, a quantile is called a value-at-risk, and risk managers commonly employ p-quantiles for p ≈ 1 (e.g., p = 0:99 or p = 0:999) to help determine capital levels needed to be able to cover future large losses with high probability; e.g., see [33]. Nuclear engineers use 0:95-quantiles in probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs) of nuclear power plants. PSAs are often performed with Monte Carlo, and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) further requires that a PSA accounts for the Hui Dong Amazon.com Corporate LLC∗, Seattle, WA 98109, USA e-mail: [email protected] ∗This work is not related to Amazon, regardless of the affiliation.
    [Show full text]