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Climate Change Assessment Inner Mongolia Sustainable Cross-Border Development Investment Program (RRP PRC 51192) CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT I. BASIC PROJECT INFORMATION Project Title: Inner Mongolia Sustainable Cross-Border Development Investment Program (Tranche 1) Project Cost Tranche 1- €345.14 million (€ million): Location: People’s Republic of China, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (IMAR) Sector: Regional Cooperation and Integration Theme: Industry and trade, water and other urban infrastructure and services Brief Description: The proposed Inner Mongolia Sustainable Cross-Border Development Investment Program (Investment Program) is a Multitranche Financing Facility (MFF) in border areas in IMAR with Mongolia. Geographically, Tranche 1 includes: (i) Erenhot Municipality, and (ii) Baotou Municipality. The outputs of the Investment Program include: (i) sustainable infrastructure for cross-border connectivity and health services improved; (ii) ecological environment in key border towns improved; (iii) income-generating opportunities expanded; and (iv) cross-border cooperation mechanisms, technical project management, and institutional capacity strengthened. There are three civil infrastructure subprojects proposed for the Investment Loan Component in Tranche 1, including: (i) Erenhot Subproject: It is located in Erenhot and includes three infrastructure activities: (a) inspection area construction for the PRC–Mongolia Erenhot– Zamyn-Uud Economic Cooperation Zone (ECZ); (b) ecological restoration for the Erenhot–Zamyn-Uud ECZ; (c) waste collection and transfer station in ECZ, and sanitation intelligent cloud platform in Erenhot; (ii) Mandula Port Subproject: It is located in Damaoqi County in Baotou and includes (a) expansion of port freight passage roads; (b) construction of service area; and customs supervision center in the International Highway Logistic Park; and (iii) Xiaoweiyang Subproject: It is located in Tuyouqi County, Damaoqi County and Guyang County in Baotou, and includes civil infrastructure activities: (a) upgrading stud sheep breeding base; (b) construction of quarantine station in Mandula Port; (c) upgrading five sheep farming bases; (d) construction of sheep slaughtering, processing and logistic park. Source: Asian Development Bank. II. SUMMARY OF CLIMATE CHANGE FINANCE UNDER TRANCHE 1 Project Financing Climate Financea Amount Adaptation Mitigation Source ($ million) ($ million) ($ million) Asian Development Bank Ordinary capital resources (regular loan) 31.58 22.35 9.23 Government 11.45 0.03 11.42 Private-owned Enterprise 0.51 0.51 Total 43.54 22.89 20.65 a Refer to the Guidance Note on Counting Climate Finance at ADB (October 2016). Source: Asian Development Bank estimates. 2 III. SUMMARY OF CLIMATE RISK SCREENING AND ASSESSMENT A. Sensitivity of Project Component(s) to Climate or Weather Conditions and the Sea Level The Investment Program is located in northern PRC–IMAR, which is the third largest provincial level region of PRC. Its climate is classified as arid or semi-arid. Precipitation is meagre, which is normally less than 200 millimeter (mm) per year. The annual average evapotranspiration is between 15 to 20 times more than annual precipitation. Besides limited water resources, the area is also featured with long cold winter, with frequent bitterly cold, strong, icy winds blowing out of Siberia. The main climate factors that may affect the design, construction and operation of the infrastructure subprojects include climate disasters (i.e., drought, snow, dust, and sandstorm), rainfall and their variabilities. Water shortage and enhanced overgrazing have put the fragile arid/semi-arid ecological environment under threats. Dust and sandstorm affect the transport system by blowing sand to the road or railway surface and results in stoppage. Project component: Sensitivity to climate/weather conditions and 1. Erenhot Subproject: sea level: (i) Inspection Area Construction for the PRC– 1. Temperature change (warming trend) affects Mongolia Erenhot–Zamyn-Uud ECZ; building heating/air-conditioning design; (ii) Ecological Restoration for the PRC–Mongolia 2. The risk of snowstorm hazard is likely increase Erenhot–Zamyn-Uud ECZ; as winter heavy precipitation may be 2. Mandula Port Subproject intensified; (i) Expansion of port freight passage roads; 3. The ecological green belt reduces the dust and (ii) Construction of service area in the sandstorm effects on Erenhot; International Highway Logistic Park; 4. Enhanced precipitation intensity indicates that (iii) Construction of customs supervision center in the storm drain system design needs to be the International Highway Logistic Park; examined; and 3. Xiaoweiyang Subproject 5. Climate change will likely enhance the pest (i) Upgrading stud sheep breeding base; hazard. (ii) Construction of quarantine station in Mandula Port; (iii) Upgrading five sheep farming bases; and (iv) Construction of sheep slaughtering, processing and logistic park. B. Climate Risk Screening The climate risk vulnerability assessment (CRVA) is focused on the climate sensitive activities of the Tranche 1 subprojects. The 2070 and 2100 climate projections are generated based on the pattern scaling method. The greenhouse gases (GHGs) concentration pathways published by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its fifth assessment report (AR5) are used in combination with climate sensitivity to construct the global warming trend. General Circulation Models (GCMs) outputs are used to generate the change scenarios of future climate. It is found that climate change will likely have considerable impacts on both temperature and precipitation in the area. In comparison to the long-term normal climate conditions, climate change impact on climate variation or extreme weather events such as heavy precipitation will likely be more significant so that the storm and heavy snow may become more intensive in the future. Design standards, in particular those for storm drain system may need to be altered, maintenance frequency increased, and extreme weather response planning capacity of operation units strengthened. Climate change could also reduce risks of certain climate hazards in the area, such as cold surge, which is likely becoming much mild due to the warming trend. It is also projected that precipitation will likely increase in the area and the dust and sandstorm may likely become less intense and less frequent. Climate Risk Classification: Medium C. Climate Risk and Adaptation Assessment The key findings of the CRVA are: 3 (i) A clear warming trend has already been observed for all four stations historically. The three stations on the north side of Yinshan Mountains have a similar warming rate of almost 5°C per 100 years (4.9°C/100a for Erenhot and Haliut; 4.8°C/100a for Bailing-Miao). That would imply a 2.4°C temperature increase by 2070, which is in good agreement with the GCM spatial projection. The area on the south has a smaller warming rate as represented by Hohhot’s 3.7°C/100a, which is also in agreement with the GCM projection. (ii) The mid scenario projection indicates the annual precipitation change will be noticeable, with an average increase between 6% and 10% by 2070; between 9% and 14% by 2100 over Erenhot and Baotou. At the site-specific scale, the precipitation is projected to increase for all month. The increase is quite clear for the summer months of July and August but with large model uncertainties. Such a scenario projection conveys good signs for this water stressed area but implies an increased storm and heavy snow hazards. (iii) Even in arid area, heavy rainfall still happens, particularly in summer. Heavy rainfall can cause damages to infrastructure such as wash-away road subgrade. The right-shifting of the 2070 generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution indicates an increment of the precipitation intensity. For example, the 50-year annual recurrence interval (ARI) event changes from current 154.80 mm to 172.00 mm with an uncertainty range between 165.52 mm to 193.97 mm. The climate change alters the climate regime, and the same ARI event will likely increase to 172.00 mm and 180.29 mm by 2070 and 2100 respectively under the mid scenario projection. (iv) Snow disaster is closely related to heavy snow or snowstorm in winter. According to Chinese Meteorology Administration (2018), snow event that has above 7.5 mm precipitation in 24 hours is classified as heavy snow or snowstorm. The right-shifting of the future scenario of GEV distribution indicates an increment of the snow intensity. The baseline 50-year ARI of winter maximum daily precipitation of Erenhot is 6.14 mm, and the same ARI event will likely change to be 6.78 mm and 7.08 mm by 2070 and 2100 respectively under the mid scenario projection. Clearly, snowstorm will still be very much rare event for Erenhot for most time in this century. It will only become a risk requires attention under high climate change scenario, which is 8.41 mm by 2100. Adaptation options: 1. “Hard” options: engineering measures in project design and construction For the arid and semi-arid area, water resource resilience is the priority for the infrastructure projects to sustain future climate change impact. A water recycling facility has been included in Mandula Port Subproject; while the Erenhot Subproject is intended to adopt a smart drip-irrigation system completely use reclaimed water for irrigation, which demonstrate excellent water resource uses as effective adaptation actions in the Tranche 1 development. Proper wastewater treatment facilities
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