State of the Congressional Battleground

JanuaryJanuary 30,30, 20092009

January 30, 2009 State of the Congressional Battleground 40 Democratic-Held Seats JanuaryJanuary 30,30, 20092009 Tier 1: 20 most competitive Democratic-held congressional districts DEMOCRATIC INCUMBENT 2008 CONG. 2006 CONG. 2004 PRES. STATE AND DISTRICT INCUMBENT SINCE MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN ALABAMA 02 Bobby Bright 2008 Dem. +1 Rep. +39 Bush +34 ALABAMA 05 Parker Griffith 2008 Dem. +4 No Rep. Bush +20 COLORADO 04 Betsy Markey 2008 Dem. +12 Rep. +3 Bush +17 FLORIDA 08 Alan Grayson 2008 Dem. +4 Rep. +7 Bush +9 FLORIDA 24 Suzanne Kosmas 2008 Dem. +16 Rep. +16 Bush +10 GEORGIA 08 Jim Marshall 2002 Dem. +14 Dem. +1 Bush +22 IDAHO 01 Walt Minnick 2008 Dem. +1 Rep. +5 Bush +38 ILLINOIS 14 Bill Foster 2008 Dem. +15 Rep. +20 Bush +12 MARYLAND 01 Frank Kratovil 2008 Dem. +1 Rep. +38 Bush +26 MICHIGAN 07 Mark Schauer 2008 Dem. +2 Rep. +4 Bush +9 MISSISSIPPI 01 Travis Childers 2008 Dem. +11 Rep. +32 Bush +25 NEVADA 03 Dina Titus 2008 Dem. +5 Rep. +2 Bush +1 NEW MEXICO 02 Harry Teague 2008 Dem. +12 Rep. +19 Bush +16 NEW YORK 24 Mike Arcuri 2006 Dem. +4 Dem. +9 Bush +6 NEW YORK 29 Eric Massa 2008 Dem. +2 Rep. +3 Bush +14 OHIO 15 Mary Jo Kilroy 2008 Dem. +1 Rep. +0.5 Bush +1 PENNSYLVANIA 03 Kathy Dahlkemper 2008 Dem. +2 Rep. +12 Bush +6 TEXAS 17 Chet Edwards 1990 Dem. +7 Dem. +18 Bush +40 VIRGINIA 02 Glenn Nye 2008 Dem. +5 Rep. +3 Bush +16 VIRGINIA 05 Tom Perriello 2008 Dem. +0.2 Rep. +19 Bush +13 TOTAL TIER 1: DEM. +6 REP. +6 BUSH +17 JanuaryJanuary 30,30, 20092009 Tier 2: 20 next most competitive Democratic-held congressional districts DEMOCRATIC INCUMBENT 2008 CONG. 2006 CONG. 2004 PRES. STATE AND DISTRICT INCUMBENT SINCE MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN ARIZONA 01 Ann Kirkpatrick 2008 Dem. +16 Rep. +9 Bush +8 ARIZONA 05 Harry Mitchell 2006 Dem. +10 Dem. +4 Bush +9 CALIFORNIA 11 Jerry McNerney 2006 Dem. +11 Dem. +6 Bush +9 ILLINOIS 08 Melissa Bean 2004 Dem. +21 Dem. +9 Bush +11 ILLINOIS 11 Debbie Halvorson 2008 Dem. +24 Rep. +10 Bush +7 INDIANA 09 Baron Hill 2006 Dem. +19 Dem. +4 Bush +19 KANSAS 03 Dennis Moore 1998 Dem. +17 Dem. +31 Bush +11 MICHIGAN 09 Gary Peters 2008 Dem. +9 Rep. +5 Bush +2 NEW HAMPSHIRE 01 Carol Shea-Porter 2006 Dem. +6 Dem. +3 Bush +2 NEW JERSEY 03 John Adler 2008 Dem. +4 Rep. +17 Bush +2 NEW MEXICO 01 Martin Heinrich 2008 Dem. +11 Rep. +0.4 Bush +3 NEW YORK 13 Mike McMahon 2008 Dem. +27 Rep. +14 Bush +10 NORTH CAROLINA 08 Larry Kissell 2008 Dem. +11 Rep. +0.3 Bush +9 OHIO 01 Steve Driehaus 2008 Dem. +5 Rep. +5 Bush +1 OHIO 16 John Boccieri 2008 Dem. +11 Rep. +17 Bush +8 OHIO 18 Zach Space 2006 Dem. +20 Dem. +24 Bush +15 PENNSYLVANIA 10 Chris Carney 2006 Dem. +13 Dem. +6 Bush +20 PENNSYLVANIA 11 Paul Kanjorski 1984 Dem. +3 Dem. +45 Kerry +6 TEXAS 23 Ciro Rodriguez 2006 Dem. +14 Dem. +9 Bush +14 WISCONSIN 08 Steve Kagen 2006 Dem. +8 Dem. +2 Bush +11 TOTAL TIER 2: DEM. +13 DEM. +3 BUSH +8 JanuaryJanuary 30,30, 20092009 Obama well-received, incumbent congressmen not well known

Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred Therm. Warm - meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Mean Cool Cool Warm

Barack Obama 20 59 65.9 +39

House Incumbent 23 36 53.9 +13

George W. Bush 52 33 40.5 -19

Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of 46 30 39.4 -16 the House

60 40 20 0 20 40 60

*Note: Actual names of “house incumbents” were inserted. Page 4 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner JanuaryJanuary 30,30, 20092009 GOP, Congress viewed unfavorably

39 43 49.9 +4 Democratic Party

Republican Party 46 29 42.4 -17

The Democratic Congress 39 38 46.7 -1

Republicans in Congress 45 26 42.4 -19

The Congress 44 29 43.0 -15

60 40 20 0 20 40 60

Page 5 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner JanuaryJanuary 30,30, 20092009 Overall, Democrats dominate health, energy, economy, and accountability

Now I am going to ask you something different. I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me Dem. – whether, overall, you think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with this issue. Rep. Republicans Much Republicans Somewhat Democrats Much Democrats Somewhat Health Care 25 11 37 59 +34 Energy Policy 28 14 33 58 +30 Breaking the gridlock in Washington 21 8 22 47 +26 Economy 29 13 32 54 +25

Leaders open to working with others 27 13 28 51 +24 Standing up to special interests in Washington 23 11 23 46 +23

Making government more accountable 31 15 28 52 +21 The budget deficit 29 14 28 49 +20 Taxpayers get value for tax dollars 30 13 23 46 +16

Taxes 42 24 20 43 +1

Handling illegal immigration 39 18 17 38 -1 National Security 50 32 19 35 -15

75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100 JanuaryJanuary 30,30, 20092009

Incumbents lead named vote, but below 50 percent in Tier 1

I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for Congress in 2010, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for (Democratic Candidate) or (Republican Candidate)?

Democratic Candidate Lean Democratic Republican candidate Lean Republican

+12 +9 +15

53 51 49 49 46 39 40 38 43 35 35 34

Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Total Tier 1 Tier 2

*Note: For each district, the Democratic incumbents’ names were inserted preceded Page 7 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner by their party identification, matched against a generic Republican. JanuaryJanuary 30,30, 20092009 Voters want member to vote right on issues rather than in touch/deliver

Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. As I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right:

First Statement: I would be more likely to reelect Second Statement: I would be more likely to (HOUSE INCUMBENT) if he/she votes the right way reelect (HOUSE INCUMBENT) if he/she stays in on the major problems facing the country. touch and delivers for people here.

First statement strongly First statement not so strongly Second statement strongly Second statement not so strongly

+19 +15 +22

54 52 50

33 35 32 36 36 36

22 22 21

Votes the right Stays in touch Votes the right Stays in touch Votes the right Stays in touch way for the and delivers for way for the and delivers for way for the and delivers for country people here country people here country people here Total Tier 1 Tier 2

*Note: For each district, the incumbent’s name was inserted, without party identification. Page 8 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner JanuaryJanuary 30,30, 20092009

Obama favorability explodes post-election

Now, I’d like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with 100 meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly warm or cold... Barack Obama.

Warm Cool

48 49 46 47 43 45

44 44 45 40 43 43

Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09

Net +3 +1 +5 +6 +2 +2 +39 Difference

*Note: Time series shows data from Democracy Corps surveys over the eight months. Page 9 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Data includes only those 22 districts in our time series. JanuaryJanuary 30,30, 20092009

Strong approval rating for President Obama

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

Strongly Approve Somewhat Approve Strongly Disapprove Somewhat Disapprove

54 55

42 35 18 20

15 12

Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Full Congressional Battleground National*

*Note: National data from Democracy Corps survey of 1,000 voters nationwide conducted January 26-29, 2009. Question wording “President Obama” instead of “President-elect.” JanuaryJanuary 30,30, 20092009

Strong support for Obama’s policies and goals

From what you have seen and heard so far about Barack Obama's policies and goals for the country, would you say that you support or oppose his policies and goals?

Strongly Support Somewhat Support Strongly Oppose Somewhat Oppose

+48 +45 70 69

49 44

22 24

14 14

Support Oppose Support Oppose

Full Congressional Battleground National*

*Note: National data from Democracy Corps survey of 1,000 voters nationwide conducted Page 11 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner January 26-29, 2009. JanuaryJanuary 30,30, 20092009 Voters want Congress to support Obama agenda

First Statement: Congress should support Barack Second Statement: While Congress should Obama's agenda as much as possible and help the consider what Barack Obama wants, it should have Obama administration get its programs passed so an independent agenda and pass its own the new president has a chance to make the kinds of alternatives for dealing with the country's problems, changes he thinks the country needs. even if they are in conflict with Obama's agenda. First statement strongly First statement not so strongly Second statement strongly Second statement not so strongly +9 +12

52 54 43 42 41 42 31 29

Congress should support Congress should have an Congress should support Congress should have an Obama's agenda indpendent agenda Obama's agenda indpendent agenda Full Congressional Battleground National*

*Note: National data from Democracy Corps survey of 1,000 voters nationwide conducted Page 12 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner January 26-29, 2009. JanuaryJanuary 30,30, 20092009 Tier 1 voters split on Congressional support for Obama agenda

First statement strongly First statement not so strongly Second statement strongly Second statement not so strongly +9 +3 +14

55 52 49 46 43 41 41 40 42 31 32 30

Congress should Congress should Congress should Congress should Congress should Congress should support Obama's have an support Obama's have an support Obama's have an agenda independent agenda independent agenda independent agenda agenda agenda Total Tier 1 Tier 2

Page 13 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner JanuaryJanuary 30,30, 20092009 Tier 1 split on congressional role

First Statement: I’m more concerned that Congress Second Statement: I’m more concerned that the will prevent Barack Obama from making the kinds of Democratic Congress will be too much of a rubber changes he thinks are needed, by playing politics and stamp for Barack Obama, and will push through catering too much to the special interests. Obama’s programs whether they are good or bad.

First statement strongly First statement not so strongly Second statement strongly Second statement not so strongly +5 0 +8

50 49 44 47 47 42

31 33 30 33 33 32

Concerned about Concerned Dem Concerned about Concerned Dem Concerned about Concerned Dem Congress playing Congress will be Congress playing Congress will be Congress playing Congress will be politics rubber stamp politics rubber stamp politics rubber stamp

Total Tier 1 Tier 2

Page 14 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner JanuaryJanuary 30,30, 20092009

Overwhelming support for Obama economic plan

As you may have heard, President Obama says his first act will be to pass an economic recovery plan. From what you have heard about Obama's plan, do you favor or oppose his proposal?

Strongly Favor Somewhat Favor Strongly Oppose Somewhat Oppose

+37 +34

64 62

35 27 35 28

18 19

Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Full Congressional Battleground National* *Note: National data from Democracy Corps survey of 1,000 voters nationwide conducted January 26-29, 2009. Question wording “President Obama” instead of “President-elect.” JanuaryJanuary 30,30, 20092009 Obama plan popular across tiers

As you may have heard, President-elect Obama says his first act will be to pass an economic recovery plan. From what you have heard about Obama’s plan, do you favor or oppose his proposal?

Strongly Favor Somewhat Favor Strongly Oppose Somewhat Oppose

+37 +32 +42 66 64 62

38 35 30 27 32 24

21 18 16

Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose

Total Tier 1 Tier 2

Page 16 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner JanuaryJanuary 30,30, 20092009 Obama’s economic plan popular in states with competitive Senate races

As you may have heard, President Obama says his first act will be to pass an economic recovery plan. From what you have heard about Obama’s plan, do you favor or oppose his proposal? Strongly Favor Somewhat Favor Strongly Oppose Somewhat Oppose

+37 +34 +38

64 62 64

35 27 35 28 34 26

18 19 18

Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Full Congressional National* Competitive Senate Battleground States *Note: National and “competitive senate states” data from Democracy Corps survey of 1,000 voters nationwide conducted January 26-29, 2009. Question wording “President Obama” instead of “President-elect.” Competitive senate states: KY, FL, MO, NC, NH, PA, LA, CO, OH, KS, ND, WI, IL. JanuaryJanuary 30,30, 20092009

Voters more likely to support incumbents if they back economic plan

If (HOUSE INCUMBENT) voted in favor of President-elect Obama’s economic recovery plan, would it make you more or less likely to support (HOUSE INCUMBENT) for reelection in two years, or does it make no difference?

Much more likely Somewhat more likely Much less likely Somewhat less likely

+12 +9 +16

53 53 53

27 30 25 15 16 14 15 14 15 11 12 10

More likely Less likely No More likely Less likely No More likely Less likely No difference difference difference Total Tier 1 Tier 2

*Note: For each district, the incumbent’s name was inserted, without party identification. Page 18 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner JanuaryJanuary 30,30, 20092009

Support for Obama economic plan makes voters more likely to reelect

If (HOUSE INCUMBENT) voted in favor of President Obama’s economic recovery plan, would it make you more or less likely to support (HOUSE INCUMBENT) for reelection in two years, or does it make no difference? Much more likely Somewhat more likely Much less likely Somewhat less likely

+12 +14 +16

53 37 34 43 27 39 20 21 15 24 19 15 11 12 14

More likely Less likely No More likely Less likely No More likely Less likely No difference difference difference Congressional National* Competitive Senate Battleground States *Note: National and “Competitive Senate States” numbers from Democracy Corps survey of 1,000 likely voters nationwide conducted January 26-29, 2009. Congressional battleground inserted incumbent names, while the national survey used the generic “your Representative in Congress” in its place. Competitive senate states: KY, FL, MO, NC, NH, PA, LA, CO, OH, KS, ND, WI, IL. JanuaryJanuary 30,30, 20092009 In battleground, immediate recovery plan ranked most important

Now I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.

In terms of dealing with the economy, implementing a long term economic investment program to ensure America's future economic strength OR passing an economic recovery plan to immediately put people back to work and stimulate the economy OR reducing the federal budget deficit should be the higher priority.

Economic recovery to immediately put people back to work

Total voters: +16 Total voters: +44

Long-Term Economic Reduce the federal Investment Total voters: +23 budget deficit

Page 20 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner JanuaryJanuary 30,30, 20092009 Voters want recovery package now, balanced budget later

First Statement: We must pass an economic recovery Second Statement: With a deficit of over a trillion package now because there is no choice, then we can dollars, we can’t afford to spend another trillion focus on reigning in spending and balancing the dollars on a costly economic stimulus package. budget once our economy is on the road to recovery.

First statement strongly First statement not so strongly Second statement strongly Second statement not so strongly +19 +12 +24

60 57 53 38 41 36 41 38 34 29 26 23

Need recovery Can't afford Need recovery Can't afford Need recovery Can't afford package now recovery package package now recovery package package now recovery package

Total Tier 1 Tier 2

Page 21 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner JanuaryJanuary 30,30, 20092009 Nationally, voters want recovery package now, balanced budget later

First statement strongly First statement not so strongly Second statement strongly Second statement not so strongly +19 +16

57 56

38 40 44 38 31 26

Need recovery package Can't afford recovery Need recovery package Can't afford recovery now package now package Total National*

*Note: National data from Democracy Corps survey of 1,000 voters nationwide conducted January 26-29, 2009. Page 22 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner JanuaryJanuary 30,30, 20092009 Economic recovery can be effective with accountability, oversight

First Statement: With strict oversight and Second Statement: No matter what oversight and accountability measures, it is possible to get an accountability measures are included, the effective economic recovery program, without a lot of economic recovery program will fund ineffective pork-barrel or wasteful projects. programs and wasteful pork.

First statement strongly First statement not so strongly Second statement strongly Second statement not so strongly +32 +37 +23 64 62 58

35 30 43 27 41 37 21 18 15 Recovery Recovery Recovery Recovery Recovery Recovery Package can be Package will be Package can be Package will be Package can be Package will be effective ineffective effective ineffective effective ineffective

Total Tier 1 Tier 2

Page 23 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner JanuaryJanuary 30,30, 20092009 Economic recovery package proposals – no rhetoric

Now I am going to read you a list of proposals that Congress might include in the economic recovery package. For each one, please tell me if you favor or oppose that proposal. Strongly Oppose Somewhat Oppose Strongly Favor Somewhat Favor Invest in alternative energy like wind, solar and bio-fuels to double its production in the next three years 11 7 64 88

Require banks that receive financial bailout funds to lend money 12 64 to consumers, businesses instead of using it to buy other banks 17 80

Extend unemployment benefits and health care coverage for those out-of-work 18 8 52 80

Provide schools and colleges with computers and technology and teachers with new training 18 8 52 80

Give aid to states so they can avoid cutting essential services like police, fire and education 21 13 52 76

Give a 1 thousand dollar tax cut to families earning under 250 thousand dollars 27 18 46 70

Ban all earmarks and pet projects in the recovery package 26 13 46 64

Give a 3 thousand dollar tax credit for each job that businesses 13 39 create in America 23 72

Give tax refunds for businesses that lost money last year 62 36 12 33

75 50 25 0 25 50 75 JanuaryJanuary 30,30, 20092009 Economic recovery package proposals with rhetoric

Now I am going to read you a list of proposals that Congress might include in the economic recovery package. For each one, please tell me if you favor or oppose that proposal. Strongly Oppose Somewhat Oppose Strongly Favor Somewhat Favor Establish an independent oversight board to ensure no tax dollars are wasted and all new spending is really 6 67 used to create jobs 12 86

Invest in energy efficiency to save taxpayers and consumers billions on energy bills 9 5 66 88

Build a new smart electricity grid nationwide to save money and deliver clean, alternative energy in the future 12 6 60 85

Invest in science, research and technology to foster innovation and medical breakthroughs 12 6 58 86

Invest in technology to computerize all medical records to cut waste and reduce the cost of health care 17 11 55 81

Provide funding for shovel-ready infrastructure projects to rebuild our transportation system and create 15 6 53 82 immediate jobs Use funds to lower interest rates on troubled mortgages to 4 and a half percent so people can stay in their homes 23 14 48 75 and avoid growing foreclosures

30 5 20457095 JanuaryJanuary 30,30, 20092009

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