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Home , Bob Ney, Brad Ellsworth, Chris Chocola, Chris Shays, Diane Farrell, Jim Kolbe

Social 70(6), pp. 382–386 ©2006 National Council for the Social Studies

Congressional Elections: A Political Turning Point? Social Education Staff

The Democrats have their best chance in 10 years to when national issues are on everybody’s mind. During the summer, make gains in the congressional elections on November the approval rating of President Bush ranged between 33% and 7, while Republicans are striving to retain control of both the 42% in the different opinion polls. One of the issues identified by House and the Senate. For Republicans to lose control of both Americans as especially important was the war in , closely houses of the legislature, the Democrats need net gains of 15 identified with Bush, which the majority of Americans believe House seats and 6 Senate seats. was a mistake to start. The elections are taking place against a backdrop of dimin- In general, when a president’s approval rating is below 50%, that ishing confidence in the performance of Congress. Corruption spells potential trouble for his party in congressional elections. scandals, pork barrel politics, perceptions that politicians are The fact that the U.S. economy has grown at a good pace too beholden to lobbies and political donors, and a widespread would normally be positive for an incumbent party. Despite public belief that the country is heading in the wrong direction, economic growth, however, most Americans do not seem combined to give Congress unusually high disapproval rat- to believe that the economy is heading in the right direc- ings in polls taken this summer. Between 58% and 69% of the tion. There is a sense among both middle-income and lower- public expressed disapproval of congressional performance in income families that they have not benefited from economic the different polls—not quite as high as the 72% disapproval growth in the same way as upper-income families. Moreover, on the last occasion control of the House and Senate changed the increase in the price of gasoline resulting from the sharp hands in 1994, but a big change from the last mid-term elec- rise of the price of oil in the last two years has affected the tions in 2002 when more members of the public approved pocketbooks of many Americans. In September 2003, the the performance of Congress than disapproved. price of crude oil was about $25, while at the beginning of Recent opinion polls have also recorded a general view September 2006, the average price was more than $60. In among voters that it would be better for Congress to be in past congressional elections that have followed a sustained Democratic rather than Republican hands. oil price rise, the party of the president has twice had major Will voters who disapprove of Congress’s performance losses: in 1980, when the president was also beset, like today, overall still turn out to vote for their own current member of with bad news from the Middle East (then in the form of the Congress? Voters typically approve of the performance of their Iranian hostage crisis), the Democrats lost 12 Senate seats own member of Congress, whether Republican or Democrat, and 35 House seats; and in 1974 (in an election held in the more than they approve of the general performance of other shadow of the Watergate scandal), the Republicans lost 5 members of Congress. Even this approval rating, however, Senate seats and 48 House seats. One exception to this pat- stands at a lower than average level; in August, about 55% of tern was the 2000 elections, also held during a year when Americans approved the performance of their own members, the price of oil increased rapidly, when President Clinton’s only modestly higher than the 51% just before the dramatic Democratic Party gained Senate and House seats at the 1994 changeover, and clearly below the 64% approval rating same time as it lost the presidency. However, the steep rise at the time of the 2002 mid-term elections. in oil prices in this case was a rebound from an unusually Although local and state issues usually play a major role in low price, rather than the rise from already high prices seen House and Senate races, the elections are taking place at a time now and in 1980.

S o c i a l E d u c a t i o n 382 Unpopular wars have also traditionally Major Changes in Congressional Elections, 1974, 1980, 1994 not been good news for the party of the Year Gains/Losses Major Themes president; in 1952, in elections held at a time when only 37% of the public still 1974 Republicans lose 5 Shadow of Watergate scandal (despite supported the Korean war, the Democrats Senate and 48 House Nixon’s resignation in the summer of 1974); lost 29 House seats and a couple of Senate seats economic downturn and inflation; fourfold seats. In 1968, as the unpopularity of the increase in price of oil following Arab oil War increased, the Democrats embargo of 1973. lost five Senate seats and a similar number 1980 Democrats lose 12 Economic downturn and inflation; in the House. Senate seats and doubling of price of oil; public anger The most positive ratings for the Bush control of the Senate because of hostage crisis. administration are on its leadership of the (regained in 1986), and war on terrorism (as opposed to the war 34 House seats in Iraq) after September 11, 2001. The 1994 Democrats drop 9 Economic stagnation of early years of Republican Party is certain to try to focus Senate seats and 54 Clinton presidency; public perception on this theme during the elections. House seats, losing of Congress as ineffective (less than 20% control of both Senate approval in opinion polls). and House

How to Keep Track of the Congressional Elections

Almost 360 of the 435 House seats and The Guide can be accessed at http:// can click on the map to get information most Senate seats are considered solidly www.nytimes.com/ref/washington/ on key races in different states. in favor of one party or another. Among 2006ELECTIONGUIDE.html House races: www.centerforpolitics.org/ the remaining seats, however, there crystalball/2006/house are many close races that make it dif- The Post also offers Senate races: www.centerforpolitics. ficult to predict the final outcome of the nationwide coverage in its Campaign org/crystalball/2006/senate 2006 congressional elections. Control 2006 section, where users can click races: www.centerforpolitics. of the House depends on whether or on a map for up-to-date information org/crystalball/2006/governor not Republicans can avoid a net loss of on the different states. The site tracks 15 seats, and control of the Senate on and analyzes key Senate, House For general nationwide public opinion whether or not Democrats can achieve and Governor races at http://projects. trends, such as approval of the perfor- a net gain of six Senate seats. washingtonpost.com/elections/keyraces mance of President Bush or of Congress, While most local news media pro- the website www.pollingreport.com lists vide adequate coverage of races in their Wikipedia has detailed coverage of and updates the results of surveys state or city, it can sometimes be hard most major House and Senate races. conducted by many different polling for teachers to monitor the national pic- For House races, go to en.wikipedia. organizations. ture. The following four sources will org/wiki/United_States_House_elections,_ As elections draw near, classes can be useful to teachers who want to keep 2006 use the information on the different track of the national picture: For Senate races, go to en.wikipedia. sites to make their own predictions of org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections, the outcome. On pp. 384–386, Social The Times 2006 Election _2006 Education lists 24 competitive House Guide covers Senate, House and races and 8 competitive Senate races Governor races across the country, with In addition, Prof. Larry Sabato of the that are worth watching. Students can individual profiles and evaluations of University of , a frequent com- monitor these, and should also keep which seats are safely in the hands of mentator on U.S. elections for the news an eye on the above websites for other one party, which are leaning toward media, offers “Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal races that are currently competitive or one party, and which are toss-ups. The Ball” on ongoing House, Senate and may become so by Election Day. site has a map on which users click on Governor races at the website of the a district or state to get information. university’s Center for Politics. Users

O c t o b e r 2 0 0 6 383 Twenty-four House Races To Watch

The Democrats need a net gain of 15 seats in order to gain control of the House of Representatives. These 24 races will be particularly important in determining the character of the next House.

ARIZONA Shays once strongly supported) make this failure to provide health coverage to q Giffords (D) In the southeastern 8th a tight race. uninsured Americans. q Graf (R) congressional district bordering , popular q Johnson (R) In the 5th congressional q Bean (D) In the 8th congress- incumbent Republican is not q Murphy (D) district of northwest q McSweeney (R) ional district in , seeking re-election. , who won , Republican Democratic incumbent the Republican primary in a vote that incumbent , who won the is under fire from Republicans highlighted divisions on immigration, is a district with at least 60% of the vote in 2004, seeking to recapture what was once a hardliner on illegal immigration, and will is running a well-funded campaign against Republican seat in a district that voted for face off against former Democratic State State Senator (D). Bush President Bush by a margin of 12% over John Senator Gabrielle Giffords in a district where administration policies and negative Kerry in 2004. In addition to the challenge 18% of the population is Hispanic. While the sentiment toward the current Congress will from her Republican opponent, David district voted for President Bush in both of be an issue in this district, which voted McSweeney, some labor unions have the last presidential elections, he received narrowly for in the 2004 withheld support from Bean, and she also only 50% of the district’s vote in 2000, and election. faces competition from a third party 53% in 2004. candidate opposed to the , Bill Scheurer. q Klein (D) In Florida’s 22nd congressional q O’Donnell (R) Incumbent Republican Bob q Shaw (R) district, which stretches from q Perlmutter (D) Beauprez has retired from Fort Lauderdale to the town of q Chocola (R) In the 2nd congressional his seat in the 7th Jupiter, Republican incumbent Clay Shaw q Donnelly (D) district in northern Indiana congressional district in central Colorado faces a major and well-financed challenge in 2004, Republican to run for governor, creating an open from former State Senate Minority Leader incumbent was re-elected in competition in a district that voted for Kerry Ron Klein (D). Both national and local issues 2004 with 54% of the vote, while Bush over Bush in the 2004 election by 51% to will feature prominently in the election defeated Kerry by 56% to 43%. The district, 48%, and where almost 20% of the residents campaign in this district, which voted for however, is one where there are concerns are Hispanic. The new Republican candidate, Kerry over Bush by 50% to 48% in 2004. about the direction of the economy. The State Education Chairman Rick O’Donnell, national Democratic Party, sensing that the is opposed by State Senator Ed Perlmutter seat is within reach, has targeted it for (D) in a contest in which immigration has q Collins (R) Republican redistricting has takeover as part of its “red to blue” campaign, become an issue, with O’Donnell criticizing q Marshall (D) increased the number of and will help finance candidate Joe Perlmutter for refusing to rule out a path Republicans in Georgia’s 8th Donnelly’s campaign. to citizenship for illegal immigrants. congressional district. Democratic incumbent Jim Marshall faces a strong q Ellsworth (D) In the 8th congressional CONNECTICUT challenge from former Congressman Mac q Hostettler (R) district, which has been q Courtney (D) In eastern Connecticut’s Collins, who represented an adjacent district nicknamed “The Bloody q Simmons (R) 2nd congressional district, from 1993 to 2005. While African Americans Eighth” for ousting six incumbent Republican , (30% of the district) offer solid support for congressmen in the last 50 years, incumbent who won re-election by an 8-point margin Marshall, voters in the new district lines (R) faces a challenge from in 2004, is competing with former State voted in favor of Bush over Kerry by 61% to Vandenburg County Sheriff Representative Joe Courtney (D). The 39% in 2004, so this is a seat Republicans (D). Although the district usually votes for outcome will show whether the unpopularity hope to gain. Republican presidential candidates, of President Bush in this district, which was Hostettler has had difficulty raising funds won by John Kerry in 2004, will outweigh ILLINOIS and attracted unfavorable publicity in 2005 Simmons’s efforts on its behalf, such as q Duckworth (D) In the 6th congressional after accusing Democrats on the floor of saving the New submarine base q Roskam (R) district of Illinois, from the House of helping to denigrate and from closure. which (R) is demonize Christians, which halted House retiring, there is a competitive race between business for 45 minutes. q Farrell (D) In the fourth district in the Republican candidate, State Senator q Shays (R) southwestern Connecticut, , a personal injury lawyer, and q Hill (D) In the 9th congressional liberal Republican incumbent Democratic candidate L. , q Sodrel (R) district, former Democratic faces a well-funded campaign a decorated war veteran and Illinois Army Congressman is by Democratic nominee . The Guard major who lost both her legs in Iraq. seeking to recover the seat he lost to district voted for Kerry in the last presidential Duckworth has criticized the Bush incumbent (R) by only 1,425 election, and the unpopularity in Connecticut administration for its planning of the Iraq votes in 2004. Both candidates are well of President Bush and the war in Iraq (which War, its policies on veterans’ care, and its funded, and although the district supported

S o c i a l E d u c a t i o n 384 Bush over Kerry by 59% to 40% in 2004, Hill former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay’s hopes to win back the seat at a time when q Shuler (D) The 11th congressional district, ARMPAC. his rival has no national Republican coat-tails q Taylor (R) which includes the Panhandle to ride on. around Asheville next to the border, is usually a safe Republican q Lampson (D) In the 22nd congressional seat. The Democratic candidate, however, q Write-in (R) district of suburban q Braley (D) Incumbent Jim Nussle (R) has is former NFL quarterback Heath Shuler, who Houston, Tom DeLay’s q Whalen (R) opted to run for governor, was once a star athlete in the district’s Swain name is no longer on the ballot, but voters resulting in open competition County High School and has emerged as a seeking to elect a Republican representative in Iowa’s first congressional district, which viable, well-funded candidate who charges to the next House will need to “write in” the John Kerry won over George Bush by 53% the Bush administration with fiscal name of Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R) in an to 46% in 2004. Immigration has become irresponsibility. Incumbent Congressman election decided by electronic voting an important issue in the campaign, even Charles H. Taylor (R) faces criticism that he machines. This may offer an opportunity for though very few residents are immigrants. is too close to lobbyists and to oil and other the Democratic candidate, former The Republican candidate, businessman business interests. Representative Nick Lampson, whose old Mike Whalen, has called for tough measures district was dismantled by redistricting, but to stop illegal immigration, while the included much of the eastern area of the Democratic candidate, attorney Bruce Braley, q Kilroy (D) In other years, incumbent current district, and who is calling on voters has called on voters not to make immigration q Pryce (R) ’s national role to break with the DeLay era. an issue that divides Americans. as chairperson of the Republican Conference might have been an asset, but in 2006, her high party profile q Rainville (R) The Vermont At-Large q Davis (R) Although Kentucky’s 4th district is making her a lightning rod for criticism q Welch (D) congressional district is q Lucas (D) voted strongly for President of the policies of the Bush administration. currently represented in Bush in the 2004 presidential She represents the 15th congressional district the House by , an independent election, the Democratic challenger to of Ohio, which includes most of Columbus socialist who votes with the Democrats. incumbent (R) is the previous plus areas west of the city, and which voted Sanders is leaving it to run for the Senate congressman who held the seat from 1999 by a very small margin for Bush over Kerry seat being vacated by Independent Jim to 2005, Ken Lucas, a former air force officer. in 2004. Her challenger is Franklin County Jeffords. As a result, there could be a tight Davis is an astute fundraiser, though past Commissioner , whose race between the state Senate president donations to his campaign from scandal- campaign highlights discontent with the pro tempore, (D), and former shrouded Congressmen Tom Delay, Duke Bush administration and the present state and U.S. Air Force Cunningham, and have made him Congress. officer (R). The district voted the target of Democratic attacks. for Kerry over Bush by 59% to 39% in 2004, q Padgett (R) Incumbent Republican but Vermont voters have often shown their q Space (D) Congressman Robert W. Ney, willingness to ignore party affiliations. q Madrid (D) In the 1st congressional who has pleaded guilty to q Wilson (R) district in Central New criminal charges of corruption, withdrew VIRGINIA Mexico, incumbent Heather from the race for the 18th congressional q Drake (R) In Virginia’s eastern 2nd Wilson (R) faces Democratic Attorney district in eastern Ohio, leaving this normally q Kellam (D) congressional district, General Patricia Madrid. While Wilson won Republican district facing an open contest freshman incumbent Thelma the seat by 55% to 45% in 2004, it voted for between , the Democratic City Drake (R) faces off against Democrat Phillip John Kerry in 2004 by 51% to 48%. One Attorney for Dover, Ohio, and State Senator Kellam, who is commissioner of revenue in campaign issue is that Wilson was a leading Joy Padgett (R). Because of Ney’s late Virginia Beach, where most of the population recipient of money from Tom DeLay’s withdrawal, Padgett was only voted the of the district reside. Although the district ARMPAC committee. Polls in August showed Republican candidate in a special primary voted decisively for Bush in 2004, Democrats about half of voters disapproving of Wilson’s on September 14 and faces the challenge sense that this will be a close race because performance, and indicated that this could of establishing herself quickly in a normally of a decline in support for the Bush be a close race. Republican seat whose voters dislike the administration, and they have targeted it shadow of scandal. as one of the “red to blue” districts to which NEW YORK they will direct national funds. q Arcuri (D) In the 24th congressional q Meier (R) district in central New York q Murphy (D) In the 6th congressional WASHINGTON state, incumbent Sherwood q Gerlach (R) district, which includes q Burner (D) In the 8th congressional Boehlert (R) has announced his retirement suburbs to the northwest of q Reichert (R) district at the east of the after 24 years. Democrats see a chance to Philadelphia, sitting Congressman Jim Seattle metropolitan area, capture the district because of the local Gerlach (R) faces stiff competition from the incumbent freshman Representative Dave unpopularity of Bush administration policies. Democratic challenger whom he defeated Reichert (R) faces a strong challenge from George Bush won the district by 53% (to by 51% to 49% in 2004, Lois Murphy. The Democrat Darcy Burner, a former Microsoft John Kerry’s 47%) in the 2004 election, but district voted for John Kerry over George manager. This district voted for Kerry in 2004 by only 3,000 votes in the 2000 presidential Bush by 51% to 48% in the same year. In the and Gore in 2000, and Democrats see it as election. The Republican nominee, State current negative mood toward Congress, one of the more vulnerable Republican Senator Ray Meier, will face off against Oneida Gerlach has encountered problems over seats. County District Attorney Mike Arcuri. $30,000 he received for his campaigns from

O c t o b e r 2 0 0 6 385 abortion and gay rights. His Democratic Eight Senate Races To Watch challenger in a tight race is former State Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse, who The Republicans will retain control of the Senate if Democrats fail to achieve a net gain of is calling for a “rapid and responsible” six seats. A net gain of five seats for the Democrats would leave the Senate divided equally withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, an end between the two parties, with the Republicans benefiting from Vice President Cheney’s to the climate of corruption in Washington, casting vote. At press time, these were the closest Senate contests between Republicans and and enhanced health care, public education, Democrats. and retirement security.

MISSOURI describes himself as an “independent TENNESSEE q McCaskill (D) reformer” seeking an end to corruption in In a close race in , a q Corker (R) Although both senators from q Talent (R) the state and enhanced homeland state George Bush won in q Ford (D) Tennessee are now Republican, security. 2004, incumbent Republican this has not always been the Jim Talent faces state auditor Claire McCaskill, OHIO case, and Democrats are hoping to win a the unsuccessful Democratic candidate for surprise victory in the contest for the Senate q Brown (D) Republican Senator Mike governor in 2004 and a well-known former seat being vacated by current Senate q DeWine (R) DeWine has lackluster prosecutor. McCaskill has attacked the Bush Majority Leader Bill Frist in line with his approval ratings in the polls administration for offering more tax benefits commitment to serve only two terms as in this swing state that voted narrowly for to the rich than the middle class and for poor senator. The Republican candidate is Bob Bush in 2004. DeWine faces a strong planning in Iraq, while Talent has attempted Corker, former mayor of Chattanooga, whose challenge from Congressman to focus on his service to Missouri rather campaign emphasizes conservative social at a time when the Ohio Republican Party than policies for which the Bush values, business growth, and support for faces the fallout of a financial scandal in administration is unpopular. Polling in August the U.S. military. His opponent, Democratic which well-connected Republican showed that either candidate could win. Congressman Harold Ford, Jr., criticizes the fundraisers lost huge amounts of state funds conduct of the Iraq War and the large federal they were assigned to manage for the state deficit, and urges economic growth that q that were improperly invested. Brown Burns (R) The Senate seat held by benefits all Americans, rather than those q blames Bush administration policies for lost Tester (D) Republican Conrad Burns is a who are already wealthy. key Democratic objective manufacturing jobs and insufficient funds because Burns has unusually low approval for education in Ohio, while DeWine VIRGINIA emphasizes his conservative pro-life values, ratings. As chairman of a Senate q Allen (R) Incumbent Republican George support for tax cuts and experience in subcommittee overseeing Indian Affairs, he q Webb (D) Allen faces an unusual national security matters. had a close relationship with lobbyist Jack challenge from James H. Webb, Abramoff. He has also made un-Senatorial PENNSYLVANIA who was once ’s Secretary statements criticizing the efforts of visiting of the Navy, but is now running for election q Casey (D) Pennsylvania voted for Kerry Virginia firefighters to put out a Montana as a Democrat critical of the Iraq War with q Santorum (R) over Bush in 2004, and the fire, questioning whether his Hispanic a populist platform on health, education seat of its conservative maintenance man was an illegal immigrant, and fair taxes. Allen, a former governor of Republican senator, , is a top and warning about the terrorist threat of Virginia with presidential aspirations who Democratic target. His Democrat opponent taxi drivers who “drive taxicabs in the presents himself as a common-sense, is State Treasurer Bob Casey, an anti-abortion daytime and kill at night.” Burns has tried Jeffersonian conservative, lost most of his Democrat who criticizes the Bush to focus on his accomplishments for Montana, early lead in the opinion polls after he administration for fiscal irresponsibility and while his Democratic challenger, State described a Webb volunteer of Indian blunders in Iraq, attacks the culture of Senate President Jon Tester, has emphasized background as a “macaca,” and later insisted corruption in Washington, and highlights issues such as affordable health care and that he did not know that the word can the themes of affordable health care, public good public education. mean “monkey.” education and secure retirement for Americans. Santorum has countered by Advertising q Kean (R) This is a state which the emphasizing his support for tax cuts, q Menendez (D) Republican Party hopes to education and health savings accounts, (ABA) American Bar Association...... 348 gain from the Democrats, family values, and the war on terrorism. Polls ABC-Clio...... 339, 350 even though the state voted for Kerry over in the summer showed Casey taking a clear The Bill of Rights Institute...... 373 Bush in 2004. Incumbent Democrat Robert lead over Santorum, whose approval ratings C-Span...... Back Cover ESRI...... 371 Menendez, who has a low public approval fell below 50%. Florida Holocaust Museum...... 373 rating, is under fire for securing federal Gilder Lehrman...... 388 funding for an organization that paid him Harper Collins...... 369 q hundreds of thousands of dollars in rent. Chafee (R) Lincoln Chafee, although Heifer International...... 334 His opponent, Republican State Senator q Whitehouse (D) a Republican, has main- James Madison Memorial Fellowship...... 364 Thomas Kean, Jr. comes from a highly tained the approval of ...... Inside Front Cover regarded political family (his father was a more than half of voters in the opinion polls SimCEO...... 348 New Jersey governor and chair of the 9/11 of this strongly Democratic state, partly by For inquiries about advertising, call Doran Commission). The well-funded and union- adopting stands unusual for a Republican. Communications at 302-644-0546, or e-mail backed Menendez identifies himself as He was the only Republican senator opposing [email protected]. Information about standing for the rights of the working men the vote to enable the president to go to advertising rates and specifications can also be and women of New Jersey, while Kean war in Iraq in 2002, and has supported found at www.socialstudies.org/advertising

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