Congressional Elections: a Political Turning Point? Social Education Staff
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Social Education 70(6), pp. 382–386 ©2006 National Council for the Social Studies Congressional Elections: A Political Turning Point? Social Education Staff The Democrats have their best chance in 10 years to when national issues are on everybody’s mind. During the summer, make major gains in the congressional elections on November the approval rating of President Bush ranged between 33% and 7, while Republicans are striving to retain control of both the 42% in the different opinion polls. One of the issues identified by House and the Senate. For Republicans to lose control of both Americans as especially important was the war in Iraq, closely houses of the legislature, the Democrats need net gains of 15 identified with Bush, which the majority of Americans believe House seats and 6 Senate seats. was a mistake to start. The elections are taking place against a backdrop of dimin- In general, when a president’s approval rating is below 50%, that ishing confidence in the performance of Congress. Corruption spells potential trouble for his party in congressional elections. scandals, pork barrel politics, perceptions that politicians are The fact that the U.S. economy has grown at a good pace too beholden to lobbies and political donors, and a widespread would normally be positive for an incumbent party. Despite public belief that the country is heading in the wrong direction, economic growth, however, most Americans do not seem combined to give Congress unusually high disapproval rat- to believe that the economy is heading in the right direc- ings in polls taken this summer. Between 58% and 69% of the tion. There is a sense among both middle-income and lower- public expressed disapproval of congressional performance in income families that they have not benefited from economic the different polls—not quite as high as the 72% disapproval growth in the same way as upper-income families. Moreover, on the last occasion control of the House and Senate changed the increase in the price of gasoline resulting from the sharp hands in 1994, but a big change from the last mid-term elec- rise of the price of oil in the last two years has affected the tions in 2002 when more members of the public approved pocketbooks of many Americans. In September 2003, the the performance of Congress than disapproved. price of crude oil was about $25, while at the beginning of Recent opinion polls have also recorded a general view September 2006, the average price was more than $60. In among voters that it would be better for Congress to be in past congressional elections that have followed a sustained Democratic rather than Republican hands. oil price rise, the party of the president has twice had major Will voters who disapprove of Congress’s performance losses: in 1980, when the president was also beset, like today, overall still turn out to vote for their own current member of with bad news from the Middle East (then in the form of the Congress? Voters typically approve of the performance of their Iranian hostage crisis), the Democrats lost 12 Senate seats own member of Congress, whether Republican or Democrat, and 35 House seats; and in 1974 (in an election held in the more than they approve of the general performance of other shadow of the Watergate scandal), the Republicans lost 5 members of Congress. Even this approval rating, however, Senate seats and 48 House seats. One exception to this pat- stands at a lower than average level; in August, about 55% of tern was the 2000 elections, also held during a year when Americans approved the performance of their own members, the price of oil increased rapidly, when President Clinton’s only modestly higher than the 51% just before the dramatic Democratic Party gained Senate and House seats at the 1994 changeover, and clearly below the 64% approval rating same time as it lost the presidency. However, the steep rise at the time of the 2002 mid-term elections. in oil prices in this case was a rebound from an unusually Although local and state issues usually play a major role in low price, rather than the rise from already high prices seen House and Senate races, the elections are taking place at a time now and in 1980. S OCIAL E DUCATION 382 Unpopular wars have also traditionally Major Changes in Congressional Elections, 1974, 1980, 1994 not been good news for the party of the Year Gains/Losses Major Themes president; in 1952, in elections held at a time when only 37% of the public still 1974 Republicans lose 5 Shadow of Watergate scandal (despite supported the Korean war, the Democrats Senate and 48 House Nixon’s resignation in the summer of 1974); lost 29 House seats and a couple of Senate seats economic downturn and inflation; fourfold seats. In 1968, as the unpopularity of the increase in price of oil following Arab oil Vietnam War increased, the Democrats embargo of 1973. lost five Senate seats and a similar number 1980 Democrats lose 12 Economic downturn and inflation; in the House. Senate seats and doubling of price of oil; public anger The most positive ratings for the Bush control of the Senate because of Iran hostage crisis. administration are on its leadership of the (regained in 1986), and war on terrorism (as opposed to the war 34 House seats in Iraq) after September 11, 2001. The 1994 Democrats drop 9 Economic stagnation of early years of Republican Party is certain to try to focus Senate seats and 54 Clinton presidency; public perception on this theme during the elections. House seats, losing of Congress as ineffective (less than 20% control of both Senate approval in opinion polls). and House How to Keep Track of the Congressional Elections Almost 360 of the 435 House seats and The Guide can be accessed at http:// can click on the map to get information most Senate seats are considered solidly www.nytimes.com/ref/washington/ on key races in different states. in favor of one party or another. Among 2006ELECTIONGUIDE.html House races: www.centerforpolitics.org/ the remaining seats, however, there crystalball/2006/house are many close races that make it dif- The Washington Post also offers Senate races: www.centerforpolitics. ficult to predict the final outcome of the nationwide coverage in its Campaign org/crystalball/2006/senate 2006 congressional elections. Control 2006 section, where users can click Governor races: www.centerforpolitics. of the House depends on whether or on a map for up-to-date information org/crystalball/2006/governor not Republicans can avoid a net loss of on the different states. The site tracks 15 seats, and control of the Senate on and analyzes key Senate, House For general nationwide public opinion whether or not Democrats can achieve and Governor races at http://projects. trends, such as approval of the perfor- a net gain of six Senate seats. washingtonpost.com/elections/keyraces mance of President Bush or of Congress, While most local news media pro- the website www.pollingreport.com lists vide adequate coverage of races in their Wikipedia has detailed coverage of and updates the results of surveys state or city, it can sometimes be hard most major House and Senate races. conducted by many different polling for teachers to monitor the national pic- For House races, go to en.wikipedia. organizations. ture. The following four sources will org/wiki/United_States_House_elections,_ As elections draw near, classes can be useful to teachers who want to keep 2006 use the information on the different track of the national picture: For Senate races, go to en.wikipedia. sites to make their own predictions of org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections, the outcome. On pp. 384–386, Social The New York Times 2006 Election _2006 Education lists 24 competitive House Guide covers Senate, House and races and 8 competitive Senate races Governor races across the country, with In addition, Prof. Larry Sabato of the that are worth watching. Students can individual profiles and evaluations of University of Virginia, a frequent com- monitor these, and should also keep which seats are safely in the hands of mentator on U.S. elections for the news an eye on the above websites for other one party, which are leaning toward media, offers “Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal races that are currently competitive or one party, and which are toss-ups. The Ball” on ongoing House, Senate and may become so by Election Day. site has a map on which users click on Governor races at the website of the a district or state to get information. university’s Center for Politics. Users O CTOB E R 2 0 0 6 383 Twenty-four House Races To Watch The Democrats need a net gain of 15 seats in order to gain control of the House of Representatives. These 24 races will be particularly important in determining the character of the next House. ARIZONA Shays once strongly supported) make this failure to provide health coverage to q Giffords (D) In the southeastern 8th a tight race. uninsured Americans. q Graf (R) congressional district bordering Mexico, popular q Johnson (R) In the 5th congressional q Bean (D) In the 8th congress- incumbent Republican Jim Kolbe is not q Murphy (D) district of northwest q McSweeney (R) ional district in Illinois, seeking re-election. Randy Graf, who won Connecticut, Republican Democratic incumbent the Republican primary in a vote that incumbent Nancy Johnson, who won the Melissa Bean is under fire from Republicans highlighted divisions on immigration, is a district with at least 60% of the vote in 2004, seeking to recapture what was once a hardliner on illegal immigration, and will is running a well-funded campaign against Republican seat in a district that voted for face off against former Democratic State State Senator Chris Murphy (D).