JanuaryJanuary 30,30, 20092009 January 30, 2009 State of the Congressional Battleground 40 Democratic-Held Seats JanuaryJanuary 30,30, 20092009 Tier 1: 20 most competitive Democratic-held congressional districts DEMOCRATIC INCUMBENT 2008 CONG. 2006 CONG. 2004 PRES. STATE AND DISTRICT INCUMBENT SINCE MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN ALABAMA 02 Bobby Bright 2008 Dem. +1 Rep. +39 Bush +34 ALABAMA 05 Parker Griffith 2008 Dem. +4 No Rep. Bush +20 COLORADO 04 Betsy Markey 2008 Dem. +12 Rep. +3 Bush +17 FLORIDA 08 Alan Grayson 2008 Dem. +4 Rep. +7 Bush +9 FLORIDA 24 Suzanne Kosmas 2008 Dem. +16 Rep. +16 Bush +10 GEORGIA 08 Jim Marshall 2002 Dem. +14 Dem. +1 Bush +22 IDAHO 01 Walt Minnick 2008 Dem. +1 Rep. +5 Bush +38 ILLINOIS 14 Bill Foster 2008 Dem. +15 Rep. +20 Bush +12 MARYLAND 01 Frank Kratovil 2008 Dem. +1 Rep. +38 Bush +26 MICHIGAN 07 Mark Schauer 2008 Dem. +2 Rep. +4 Bush +9 MISSISSIPPI 01 Travis Childers 2008 Dem. +11 Rep. +32 Bush +25 NEVADA 03 Dina Titus 2008 Dem. +5 Rep. +2 Bush +1 NEW MEXICO 02 Harry Teague 2008 Dem. +12 Rep. +19 Bush +16 NEW YORK 24 Mike Arcuri 2006 Dem. +4 Dem. +9 Bush +6 NEW YORK 29 Eric Massa 2008 Dem. +2 Rep. +3 Bush +14 OHIO 15 Mary Jo Kilroy 2008 Dem. +1 Rep. +0.5 Bush +1 PENNSYLVANIA 03 Kathy Dahlkemper 2008 Dem. +2 Rep. +12 Bush +6 TEXAS 17 Chet Edwards 1990 Dem. +7 Dem. +18 Bush +40 VIRGINIA 02 Glenn Nye 2008 Dem. +5 Rep. +3 Bush +16 VIRGINIA 05 Tom Perriello 2008 Dem. +0.2 Rep. +19 Bush +13 TOTAL TIER 1: DEM. +6 REP. +6 BUSH +17 JanuaryJanuary 30,30, 20092009 Tier 2: 20 next most competitive Democratic-held congressional districts DEMOCRATIC INCUMBENT 2008 CONG. 2006 CONG. 2004 PRES. STATE AND DISTRICT INCUMBENT SINCE MARGIN MARGIN MARGIN ARIZONA 01 Ann Kirkpatrick 2008 Dem. +16 Rep. +9 Bush +8 ARIZONA 05 Harry Mitchell 2006 Dem. +10 Dem. +4 Bush +9 CALIFORNIA 11 Jerry McNerney 2006 Dem. +11 Dem. +6 Bush +9 ILLINOIS 08 Melissa Bean 2004 Dem. +21 Dem. +9 Bush +11 ILLINOIS 11 Debbie Halvorson 2008 Dem. +24 Rep. +10 Bush +7 INDIANA 09 Baron Hill 2006 Dem. +19 Dem. +4 Bush +19 KANSAS 03 Dennis Moore 1998 Dem. +17 Dem. +31 Bush +11 MICHIGAN 09 Gary Peters 2008 Dem. +9 Rep. +5 Bush +2 NEW HAMPSHIRE 01 Carol Shea-Porter 2006 Dem. +6 Dem. +3 Bush +2 NEW JERSEY 03 John Adler 2008 Dem. +4 Rep. +17 Bush +2 NEW MEXICO 01 Martin Heinrich 2008 Dem. +11 Rep. +0.4 Bush +3 NEW YORK 13 Mike McMahon 2008 Dem. +27 Rep. +14 Bush +10 NORTH CAROLINA 08 Larry Kissell 2008 Dem. +11 Rep. +0.3 Bush +9 OHIO 01 Steve Driehaus 2008 Dem. +5 Rep. +5 Bush +1 OHIO 16 John Boccieri 2008 Dem. +11 Rep. +17 Bush +8 OHIO 18 Zach Space 2006 Dem. +20 Dem. +24 Bush +15 PENNSYLVANIA 10 Chris Carney 2006 Dem. +13 Dem. +6 Bush +20 PENNSYLVANIA 11 Paul Kanjorski 1984 Dem. +3 Dem. +45 Kerry +6 TEXAS 23 Ciro Rodriguez 2006 Dem. +14 Dem. +9 Bush +14 WISCONSIN 08 Steve Kagen 2006 Dem. +8 Dem. +2 Bush +11 TOTAL TIER 2: DEM. +13 DEM. +3 BUSH +8 JanuaryJanuary 30,30, 20092009 Obama well-received, incumbent congressmen not well known Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred Therm. Warm - meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Mean Cool Cool Warm Barack Obama 20 59 65.9 +39 House Incumbent 23 36 53.9 +13 George W. Bush 52 33 40.5 -19 Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of 46 30 39.4 -16 the House 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 *Note: Actual names of “house incumbents” were inserted. Page 4 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner JanuaryJanuary 30,30, 20092009 GOP, Congress viewed unfavorably Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred Therm. Warm - meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Mean Cool Cool Warm 39 43 49.9 +4 Democratic Party Republican Party 46 29 42.4 -17 The Democratic Congress 39 38 46.7 -1 Republicans in Congress 45 26 42.4 -19 The Congress 44 29 43.0 -15 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 Page 5 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner JanuaryJanuary 30,30, 20092009 Overall, Democrats dominate health, energy, economy, and accountability Now I am going to ask you something different. I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me Dem. – whether, overall, you think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with this issue. Rep. Republicans Much Republicans Somewhat Democrats Much Democrats Somewhat Health Care 25 11 37 59 +34 Energy Policy 28 14 33 58 +30 Breaking the gridlock in Washington 21 8 22 47 +26 Economy 29 13 32 54 +25 Leaders open to working with others 27 13 28 51 +24 Standing up to special interests in Washington 23 11 23 46 +23 Making government more accountable 31 15 28 52 +21 The budget deficit 29 14 28 49 +20 Taxpayers get value for tax dollars 30 13 23 46 +16 Taxes 42 24 20 43 +1 Handling illegal immigration 39 18 17 38 -1 National Security 50 32 19 35 -15 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100 JanuaryJanuary 30,30, 20092009 Incumbents lead named vote, but below 50 percent in Tier 1 I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for Congress in 2010, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for (Democratic Candidate) or (Republican Candidate)? Democratic Candidate Lean Democratic Republican candidate Lean Republican +12 +9 +15 53 51 49 49 46 39 40 38 43 35 35 34 Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Total Tier 1 Tier 2 *Note: For each district, the Democratic incumbents’ names were inserted preceded Page 7 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner by their party identification, matched against a generic Republican. JanuaryJanuary 30,30, 20092009 Voters want member to vote right on issues rather than in touch/deliver Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. As I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right: First Statement: I would be more likely to reelect Second Statement: I would be more likely to (HOUSE INCUMBENT) if he/she votes the right way reelect (HOUSE INCUMBENT) if he/she stays in on the major problems facing the country. touch and delivers for people here. First statement strongly First statement not so strongly Second statement strongly Second statement not so strongly +19 +15 +22 54 52 50 33 35 32 36 36 36 22 22 21 Votes the right Stays in touch Votes the right Stays in touch Votes the right Stays in touch way for the and delivers for way for the and delivers for way for the and delivers for country people here country people here country people here Total Tier 1 Tier 2 *Note: For each district, the incumbent’s name was inserted, without party identification. Page 8 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner JanuaryJanuary 30,30, 20092009 Obama favorability explodes post-election Now, I’d like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with 100 meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly warm or cold... Barack Obama. Warm Cool 59 48 49 46 47 43 45 44 44 45 40 43 43 20 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Net +3 +1 +5 +6 +2 +2 +39 Difference *Note: Time series shows data from Democracy Corps surveys over the eight months. Page 9 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Data includes only those 22 districts in our time series. JanuaryJanuary 30,30, 20092009 Strong approval rating for President Obama Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Strongly Approve Somewhat Approve Strongly Disapprove Somewhat Disapprove 54 55 42 35 18 20 15 12 Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Full Congressional Battleground National* *Note: National data from Democracy Corps survey of 1,000 voters nationwide conducted January 26-29, 2009. Question wording “President Obama” instead of “President-elect.” JanuaryJanuary 30,30, 20092009 Strong support for Obama’s policies and goals From what you have seen and heard so far about Barack Obama's policies and goals for the country, would you say that you support or oppose his policies and goals? Strongly Support Somewhat Support Strongly Oppose Somewhat Oppose +48 +45 70 69 49 44 22 24 14 14 Support Oppose Support Oppose Full Congressional Battleground National* *Note: National data from Democracy Corps survey of 1,000 voters nationwide conducted Page 11 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner January 26-29, 2009. JanuaryJanuary 30,30, 20092009 Voters want Congress to support Obama agenda Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. As I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right: First Statement: Congress should support Barack Second Statement: While Congress should Obama's agenda as much as possible and help the consider what Barack Obama wants, it should have Obama administration get its programs passed so an independent agenda and pass its own the new president has a chance to make the kinds of alternatives for dealing with the country's problems, changes he thinks the country needs.