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Change in Shape of the Real Estate Market

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Change in Shape of the Real Estate Market No. 52 - July 2021 INSEE AND NOTARY PRICE INDEX VARIATION* OLDER PROPERTIES OLDER APARTMENTS OLDER HOUSES 3 months 1 year 3 months 1 year 3 months 1 year Mainland France 1.4% 5.9% 1% 5% 1.7% 6.6% Greater Paris Region 0.6% 4.7% - 0.1% 3.6% 2.2% 7.1% (Île-de-France) French Provinces 1.7% 6.4% 1.9% 6.3% 1.7% 6.5% * Three-month variation (seasonally adjusted): between the fourth quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021 One-year variation: between the first quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021 Change in shape of the real estate market The volume of sales of older properties over the last Changes in the sales volumes of older properties in the period 2000/2021 twelve months reached 1,130,000 transactions 1 200 000 May 21 : 1,130,000 at the end of May 2021, a record level since 2000. This volume is all the more remarkable March 21: 1,080,000 because, even if it includes the deferral of sales 1 100 000 not made during the first lockdown, it reflects, January 20: 1,075,000 above all, the dynamism of the housing market 1 000 000 throughout that period. January 18: 965,000 The trend highlighted in the previous quarter 900 000 July 20: 981,000 is even more apparent: if the number of May 06: 837,000 February 12: 834,000 transactions increases, it is in favour of a new typology of properties and toward 800 000 geographical areas away from major cities. Some properties that were then responding to 700 000 essentially local demand are now being sold to a wider range of users. We observe relocations, February 13: 653,000 particularly to small towns and even to medium- 600 000 sized towns1. August 09: 564,000 500 000 This was initially felt specifically for older homes Dec.-00 Dec.-02 Dec.-04 Dec.-06 Dec.-08 Dec.-10 Dec.-12 Dec.-14 Dec.-16 Dec.-18 Dec.-20 Dec.-21 around the capital, with Parisians showing a Number of older properties sold in total over 12 months - All of France (excluding Mayotte). Source: CGEDD according to notary marked trend toward smaller cities, mostly located databases and DGFiP (MEDOC) in adjoining departments. The new fact is that the 3,500 inhabitants located in the neighbouring The number of "departures" increased by 13% figures for the notarial real-estate base show a departments (Isère, Ain, Loire), in greener areas, despite a higher number of transactions at the similar trend in older homes in other cities: thus, also probably more financially accessible. This end of 2019 than at the end of 2020 (1,067,000) around the Lyon metropolis, and as early as the desire for greenery, supported by the impromptu transactions compared to 1,024,000 transactions). second half of 2020, the Lyon residents oriented rise of remote working, seems to reflect a desire their departures more toward cities of less than for “connected disconnection.” Unequal price impact In the first quarter of 2021, the increase in the 1 - Barometer of the real estate of the middle cities, This same analysis of the notarial real estate bases, price of old housing in metropolitan France Conseil supérieur du notariat et Agence nationale de carried out around Toulouse, reflects a similar slowed to +1.4% compared to the fourth quarter la cohésion des territoires (Notaries upper council and progression, for the city of Toulouse as well as National territories cohesion agency), June 2021 of 2020 (provisional seasonally adjusted data), for the Toulouse metropolis, toward cities of less after +2.4% in the previous quarter. than 3,500 inhabitants, even if the Haut-Garonne LATEST TRENDS residents do not tend to leave their department. Over the course of a year, the price increase also decelerates: + 5.9%, following + 6.4%. Older Older These movements remain reasonable, even apartments houses This is mainly due to a slowdown in the apartment if tangible. What seems to be a beginning of Change 3 months* 2% 1% market: 5% over one year compared to 6.3% in generalisation across French cities echoes the the fourth quarter of 2020. In houses, the increase Change 1 year* 5.5% 8.9% fact that in the second half of 2020, the French is similar to the previous quarter: +6.6% over one *Change in early indicators based on pre-contracts had a greater propensity to leave their home year compared to +6.5% in the fourth quarter of In metropolitan France: forecast at the end of August 2021. department than in the second quarter of 2019. 2020. The predictions from the pre-contracts in ••• No. 52 - July 2021 MEDIAN PRICE PER SQ. M. OF OLDER APARTMENTS IN THE 1st QUARTER of 2021 Change over one year: 1 January 2021 to 31 March 2021 / 1 January 2020 to 31 March 2020 Lille €3,490 Amiens 6.2% €2,060 Metz 3.6% €2,090 Reims 10.2% € Rouen 2,250 € 5.8% 2,450 Paris Nancy Caen 3.7% €10,640 € € 2,060 2,410 1.7% 10.6% Rennes 16.2% €3,360 8.7% Strasbourg Orleans €3,060 Tours €2,180 € Mulhouse 4.6% 2,600 6.3% €1,120 10.6% 9.3% Besançon Nantes €1,870 €3,720 5.9% Guadeloupe 7.8% Bourges € €1,250 Saint-Étienne Dijon 3,240 € € 13.7% -4.7% 1,000 2,310 Poitiers 4.8% 9.3% €2,020 Martinique 17.5% €2,520 Lyon 7.9% Limoges €5,000 € 1,380 Clermont- Nimes 8.4% 10.3% €1,900 Reunion Ferrand € €1,850 10.7% Grenoble Nice 2,140 €4,100 4.3% Bordeaux 8.8% €2,300 4,440€ -0.5% 4.3% 2.2% Toulon €2,260 7.5% Bayonne Annual price change per sq. m. 3,490€ Toulouse €3,140 Upper Corsica 14.8% €2,630 less than -2% 7.1% Montpellier Marseille 8.4% From -2% to 2% €2,930 €2,620 7.6% More than 2% 1.9% South Corsica Source: Property databases of Notaires de France (The prices for the Greater Paris Region €3,610 are valuations from the INSEE and Notary indices for the first quarter of 2021) 8.4% MEDIAN SELLING PRICE OF OLDER HOUSES IN THE 1st QUARTER OF 2021 Change over one year: 1 January 2021 to 31 March 2021 / 1 January 2020 to 31 March 2020 Statistics for houses refer to the whole agglomeration (city centre + suburbs) Amiens Lille €179,500 €205,000 Rouen 18.1% 7.9% € Reims Le Havre 176,000 €227,800 €184,000 4.5% -1% 2.2% Metz Caen Greater Paris €243,500 €235,000 €338,300 13.3% Brest 6.8% 7.1% €204,000 Chartres € Nancy 10.3% 219,000 €191,500 10.3% 1.7% Tours Troyes €240,000 €168,800 6.7% 8.6% Orleans Nantes €210,000 €332,500 0.3% 9% Dijon Saint-Étienne €256,000 Angers Châteauroux €215,000 5.2% €265,000 €130,000 7.5% 7.5% Poitiers 5.7% €179,000 Lyon 11.9% €395,000 Limoges 9.4% € Nimes Reunion 166,000 10.7% €228,600 €220,000 5.3% Grenoble 2.1% €324,700 4.7% Toulon Bordeaux Montauban € € € 421,500 359,400 190,000 9.9% 5% 5.4% Upper Corsica Annual change in selling prices €271,600 less than -2% Toulouse 4.7% €301,000 Montpellier Marseille/ Aix-en- From -2% to 2% 0.3% €386,200 Provence € South Corsica More than 2% 13.7% 337,500 € 5.5% 445,900 Source: Property databases of Notaires de France 17.3% (The prices for the Greater Paris Region are valuations from the INSEE and Notary indices for the first quarter of 2021) No. 52 - July 2021 Variation in the prices of old housing over one year in France The recent recommendations of the High Financial Stability Council (HCSF)3 seem to reinforce the borrowing profiles on parameters that are more relevant to good banking practice already in place than to coercive measures. An increase in rates would not break market dynamism: in fact, borrowers are aware that they are currently exceptionally low; no indicator suggests a sharp rise, so a reasonable increase in rates would not significantly alter the purchaser- borrowers’ cash-flow effort. The French morale does not deny this desire to invest, and is finally rebounding after a chaotic year, though still below its long-term average4. The French now consider it less necessary to save, which can spur them to shift their spending toward well-being and a better living environment. The mechanisms put in place by the public authorities, in real estate and elsewhere, helped to prevent panic. The morale and savings made Field: Metropolitan France. Sources: Insee, ADSN-BIEN-Notaries of the Greater Paris Region, Notaries of France - Perval. during the lockdowns allowed many French to embark on a new home purchase. metropolitan France forecast, by the end of August price of apartments is expected to reach €10,720/m² 2021, an increase in the prices of apartments over in August 2021, an increase of 1% in three months, But has the health crisis redistributed the cards? a year slightly higher than that recorded in the while prices are expected to stabilise (-0.2%) over Or will the recent trend change the long-term first quarter of 2021 (+5.5% at the end of August the next year: but the upward pressure in recent consumption of real estate? Bricks and mortar has always kept a place of choice in the heart of 2021).
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