Bounded Rationality: Models of Fast and Frugal Inference
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Behind Behavioral Economic Man: the Methods and Conflicts Between Two Perspectives
Behind Behavioral Economic Man: The Methods and Conflicts Between Two Perspectives Rafael Nunes Teixeira Mestre em Economia pela UnB Daniel Fernando de Souza Mestrando em Desenvolvimento Econômico pela UFPR Keywords: behavioral economics methods, Kahneman and Tversky, Gigerenzer and the ABC Research Group Behind Behavioral Economic Man: The Methods and Conflicts Between Two Perspectives Abstract: This work analyzes the methods of research in decision-making of behavioral economists Kahneman and Tversky (K&T) and one of their main critics, Gigerenzer and the ABC Group. Our aim was to explain differences between these two approaches of BE by examining the procedure used by them to search for the cognitive processes involved in choice. We identified similarities between K&T and the mainstream economics methods that may explain some of the differences with their critics’ approach. We conclude with a discussion of how advances in BE, such as Nudges and Choice Architecture may take advantage of complementarities in these perspectives. Keywords: behavioral economics methods, Kahneman and Tversky, Gigerenzer and the ABC Research Group 1 Introduction Human behavior is a fundamental component of economics and is usually described and interpreted by the Rational Choice Theory (RCT). From Bernoulli to Kreps, the RCT has assumed many different forms and undergone a lot of change in its long history. One key aspect (Sen 2002, 2009) of RCT is the use of logical constructions to describe man as a rational decision maker1. In this view, choices and preferences must be consistent and follow regularities (e.g. completeness and transitivity, α and β (Sen 1971)) and statistical norms (e.g. -
SEF Working Paper: 11/2012 April 2012
SEF Working paper: 11/2012 April 2012 Behavioural economics perspectives: Implications for policy and financial literacy Morris Altman The Working Paper series is published by the School of Economics and Finance to provide staff and research students the opportunity to expose their research to a wider audience. The opinions and views expressed in these papers are not necessarily reflective of views held by the school. Comments and feedback from readers would be welcomed by the author(s). Enquiries to: The Administrator School of Economics and Finance Victoria University of Wellington P O Box 600 Wellington 6140 New Zealand Phone: +64 4 463 5353 Email: [email protected] Working Paper 11/2012 ISSN 2230-259X (Print) ISSN 2230-2603 (Online) Behavioural Economics Perspectives: Implications for Policy and Financial Literacy* Morris Altman Professor of Behavioural and Institutional Economics Head, School of Economics & Finance Victoria University of Wellington Editor, Journal of Socio-Economics (Elsevier Science) Email: [email protected] Homepage: http://www.victoria.ac.nz/sef/about/staff/morris-altman Amazon page: http://www.amazon.com/Morris-Altman/e/B001H6N3V4 Keywords: Financial literacy, behavioral economics, imperfect information, heuristics, trust, nudging, decision-making environment JEL Codes: A11, B26, B41, D00, D14, D62, D8, H4, K4 *Originally appears as a Research paper prepared for the Task Force on Financial Literacy (Canada): http://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2011/fin/F2-202-2011-eng.pdf 1 Behavioural Economics Perspectives: Implications for Policy and Financial Literacy* Morris Altman Executive Summary This paper summarizes and highlights different approaches to behavioural economics. It includes a discussion of the differences between the “old” behavioural economics school, led by scholars like Herbert Simon, and the “new” behavioural economics, which builds on the work of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky and is best exemplified by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein’s recent book, Nudge. -
The Evolutionary Biology of Decision Making
University of Nebraska - Lincoln DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln Faculty Publications, Department of Psychology Psychology, Department of 2008 The Evolutionary Biology of Decision Making Jeffrey R. Stevens University of Nebraska-Lincoln, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/psychfacpub Part of the Psychiatry and Psychology Commons Stevens, Jeffrey R., "The Evolutionary Biology of Decision Making" (2008). Faculty Publications, Department of Psychology. 523. https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/psychfacpub/523 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Psychology, Department of at DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln. It has been accepted for inclusion in Faculty Publications, Department of Psychology by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln. Published in BETTER THAN CONSCIOUS? DECISION MAKING, THE HUMAN MIND, AND IMPLICATIONS FOR INSTITUTIONS, ed. Christoph Engel and Wolf Singer (Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 2008), pp. 285-304. Copyright 2008 Massachusetts Institute of Technology & the Frankfurt Institute for Advanced Studies. Used by permission. 13 The Evolutionary Biology of Decision Making Jeffrey R. Stevens Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, 14195 Berlin, Germany Abstract Evolutionary and psychological approaches to decision making remain largely separate endeavors. Each offers necessary techniques and perspectives which, when integrated, will aid the study of decision making in both humans and nonhuman animals. The evolutionary focus on selection pressures highlights the goals of decisions and the con ditions under which different selection processes likely influence decision making. An evolutionary view also suggests that fully rational decision processes do not likely exist in nature. -
Kranton Duke University
The Devil is in the Details – Implications of Samuel Bowles’ The Moral Economy for economics and policy research October 13 2017 Rachel Kranton Duke University The Moral Economy by Samuel Bowles should be required reading by all graduate students in economics. Indeed, all economists should buy a copy and read it. The book is a stunning, critical discussion of the interplay between economic incentives and preferences. It challenges basic premises of economic theory and questions policy recommendations based on these theories. The book proposes the path forward: designing policy that combines incentives and moral appeals. And, therefore, like such as book should, The Moral Economy leaves us with much work to do. The Moral Economy concerns individual choices and economic policy, particularly microeconomic policies with goals to enhance the collective good. The book takes aim at laws, policies, and business practices that are based on the classic Homo economicus model of individual choice. The book first argues in great detail that policies that follow from the Homo economicus paradigm can backfire. While most economists would now recognize that people are not purely selfish and self-interested, The Moral Economy goes one step further. Incentives can amplify the selfishness of individuals. People might act in more self-interested ways in a system based on incentives and rewards than they would in the absence of such inducements. The Moral Economy warns economists to be especially wary of incentives because social norms, like norms of trust and honesty, are critical to economic activity. The danger is not only of incentives backfiring in a single instance; monetary incentives can generally erode ethical and moral codes and social motivations people can have towards each other. -
Correlated Equilibria and Communication in Games Françoise Forges
Correlated equilibria and communication in games Françoise Forges To cite this version: Françoise Forges. Correlated equilibria and communication in games. Computational Complex- ity. Theory, Techniques, and Applications, pp.295-704, 2012, 10.1007/978-1-4614-1800-9_45. hal- 01519895 HAL Id: hal-01519895 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01519895 Submitted on 9 May 2017 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. Correlated Equilibrium and Communication in Games Françoise Forges, CEREMADE, Université Paris-Dauphine Article Outline Glossary I. De…nition of the Subject and its Importance II. Introduction III. Correlated Equilibrium: De…nition and Basic Properties IV. Correlated Equilibrium and Communication V. Correlated Equilibrium in Bayesian Games VI. Related Topics and Future Directions VII. Bibliography Acknowledgements The author wishes to thank Elchanan Ben-Porath, Frédéric Koessler, R. Vijay Krishna, Ehud Lehrer, Bob Nau, Indra Ray, Jérôme Renault, Eilon Solan, Sylvain Sorin, Bernhard von Stengel, Tristan Tomala, Amparo Ur- bano, Yannick Viossat and, especially, Olivier Gossner and Péter Vida, for useful comments and suggestions. Glossary Bayesian game: an interactive decision problem consisting of a set of n players, a set of types for every player, a probability distribution which ac- counts for the players’ beliefs over each others’ types, a set of actions for every player and a von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function de…ned over n-tuples of types and actions for every player. -
Satisficing Consequentialism Author(S): Michael Slote and Philip Pettit Source: Proceedings of the Aristotelian Society, Supplementary Volumes, Vol
Satisficing Consequentialism Author(s): Michael Slote and Philip Pettit Source: Proceedings of the Aristotelian Society, Supplementary Volumes, Vol. 58 (1984), pp. 139-163+165-176 Published by: Blackwell Publishing on behalf of The Aristotelian Society Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/4106846 Accessed: 15/10/2008 09:26 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use, available at http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp. JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use provides, in part, that unless you have obtained prior permission, you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles, and you may use content in the JSTOR archive only for your personal, non-commercial use. Please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work. Publisher contact information may be obtained at http://www.jstor.org/action/showPublisher?publisherCode=black. Each copy of any part of a JSTOR transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printed page of such transmission. JSTOR is a not-for-profit organization founded in 1995 to build trusted digital archives for scholarship. We work with the scholarly community to preserve their work and the materials they rely upon, and to build a common research platform that promotes the discovery and use of these resources. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected]. The Aristotelian Society and Blackwell Publishing are collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to Proceedings of the Aristotelian Society, Supplementary Volumes. -
Analyzing Just-In-Time Purchasing Strategy in Supply Chains Using an Evolutionary Game Approach
Bulletin of the JSME Vol.14, No.5, 2020 Journal of Advanced Mechanical Design, Systems, and Manufacturing Analyzing just-in-time purchasing strategy in supply chains using an evolutionary game approach Ziang LIU* and Tatsushi NISHI** *Graduate School of Engineering Science, Osaka University 1-3 Machikaneyama-Cho, Toyonaka City, Osaka 560-8531, Japan E-mail: [email protected] **Graduate School of Natural Science and Technology, Okayama University 3-1-1 Tsushima-naka, Kita-ku, Okayama City, Okayama 700-8530, Japan Received: 18 December 2019; Revised: 30 March 2020; Accepted: 9 April 2020 Abstract Many researchers have focused on the comparison between the JIT model and the EOQ model. However, few of them studied this problem from an evolutionary perspective. In this paper, a JIT purchasing with the single- setup-multi-delivery model is introduced to compare the total costs of the JIT model and the EOQ model. Also, we extend the classical JIT-EOQ models to a two-echelon supply chain which consists of one manufacturer and one supplier. Considering the bounded rationality of players and the quickly changing market, an evolutionary game model is proposed to discuss how these factors impact the strategy selection of the companies. And the evolutionarily stable strategy of the proposed model is analyzed. Based on the analysis, we derive the conditions when the supply chain system will choose the JIT strategy and propose a contract method to ensure that the system converges to the JIT strategy. Several numerical experiments are provided to observe the JIT and EOQ purchasing strategy selection of the manufacturer and the supplier. -
Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow from the Standpoint of Old
Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow from the Standpoint of Old Behavioural Economics (For the 2012 HETSA Conference) Peter E. Earl School of Economics, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia, email: [email protected] Abstract Daniel Kahneman’s bestseller Thinking, Fast and Slow presents an account of his life’s work on judgment and decision-making (much of it conducted with Amos Tversky) that has been instrumental in the rise of what Sent (2004) calls ‘new behavioural economics’. This paper examines the relationship between Kahneman’s work and some key contributions within the ‘old behavioural’ literature that Kahneman fails to discuss. It show how closely aligned he is to economic orthodoxy, examining his selective use of Herbert Simon’s work in relation to his ‘two systems’ view of decision making and showing how Shackle’s model of choice under uncertainty provided an alternative way of dealing with some of the issues that Kahneman and Tversky sought to address, three decades after Shackle worked out his model, via their Prospect Theory. Aside from not including ‘loss aversion’, it was Shackle’s model that was the more original and philosophically well-founded. Keywords: Prospect Theory, satisficing, bounded rationality, choice under uncertainty JEL Classification Codes: B31, D03, D81 1. Introduction In his highly successful 2011 book Thinking, Fast and Slow Daniel Kahneman offers an excellent account of his career-long research on judgment and decision- making, much of it conducted with the late Amos Tversky. Kahneman was awarded the 2002 Bank of Sweden PriZe in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel for this work. -
Dynamic Games Under Bounded Rationality
Munich Personal RePEc Archive Dynamic Games under Bounded Rationality Zhao, Guo Southwest University for Nationalities 8 March 2015 Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/62688/ MPRA Paper No. 62688, posted 09 Mar 2015 08:52 UTC Dynamic Games under Bounded Rationality By ZHAO GUO I propose a dynamic game model that is consistent with the paradigm of bounded rationality. Its main advantages over the traditional approach based on perfect rationality are that: (1) the strategy space is a chain-complete partially ordered set; (2) the response function is certain order-preserving map on strategy space; (3) the evolution of economic system can be described by the Dynamical System defined by the response function under iteration; (4) the existence of pure-strategy Nash equilibria can be guaranteed by fixed point theorems for ordered structures, rather than topological structures. This preference-response framework liberates economics from the utility concept, and constitutes a marriage of normal-form and extensive-form games. Among the common assumptions of classical existence theorems for competitive equilibrium, one is central. That is, individuals are assumed to have perfect rationality, so as to maximize their utilities (payoffs in game theoretic usage). With perfect rationality and perfect competition, the competitive equilibrium is completely determined, and the equilibrium depends only on their goals and their environments. With perfect rationality and perfect competition, the classical economic theory turns out to be deductive theory that requires almost no contact with empirical data once its assumptions are accepted as axioms (see Simon 1959). Zhao: Southwest University for Nationalities, Chengdu 610041, China (e-mail: [email protected]). -
Daniel Kahneman Curriculum Vitae August 2016
Daniel Kahneman Curriculum Vitae August 2016 Born: 1934, Tel Aviv, Israel Citizenship: US, Israel Education Ph.D. University of California, Berkeley, 1961 (Psychology) B.A. The Hebrew University, Jerusalem, 1954, (Psychology and Mathematics) Professional Positions Held 2007- Professor of Psychology and Public Affairs, Emeritus, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University 2007- Eugene Higgins Professor of Psychology, Emeritus, Princeton University 2000- Fellow, Center for Rationality, Hebrew University, Jerusalem 1993-2007 Eugene Higgins Professor of Psychology, Princeton University 1993-2007 Professor of Psychology and Public Affairs, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University 1991-1992 Visiting Scholar, Russell Sage Foundation 1986-1994 Professor of Psychology, University of California, Berkeley 1984-1986 Associate Fellow, Canadian Institute for Advanced Research 1978-1986 Professor of Psychology, The University of British Columbia 1977-1978 Fellow, Center for Advanced Studies in the Behavioral Sciences 1968-1969 Visiting Scientist (summers), Applied Psychological Research Unit, Cambridge, England 1966-1967 Fellow, Center for Cognitive Studies; Lecturer in Psychology, Harvard University 1965-1966 Visiting Scientist, Department of Psychology, University of Michigan 1961-1978 Lecturer to Professor, The Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel LINKS TO RECENT LECTURES Video and Audio Links “Interview with Leif Nelson,” The Society for Judgment and Decision Making, November 2015. “Thinking That We Know”, Sackler Colloquium to the National Academy -
511795 Chicago LR 73#3.Ps
Judges as Rulemakers Emily Sherwin† In Do Cases Make Bad Law?, Frederick Schauer raises some se- rious questions about the process of judicial lawmaking.1 Schauer takes issue with the widely held assumption that judge-made law benefits from the court’s focus on a particular real-world dispute.2 Writing with characteristic eloquence, Schauer argues that the need to resolve a concrete dispute does not enhance the ability of judges to craft sound rules, but instead generates cognitive biases that distort judicial development of legal rules. Schauer’s observations about the risks of rulemaking in an adju- dicatory setting are very persuasive. Yet his overall assessment of the common law process may be too severe. In this Essay, I shall suggest that common law decisionmaking, at least in its more traditional forms, has features that can counteract the biases that worry Schauer and provide at least some protection from the errors his theory pre- dicts. Specifically, the common judicial practices of consulting prece- dent decisions and seeking analogies in the facts of prior cases broaden the perspective of judges and allow them to better assess the consequences of proposed rules. This is so even if following precedent and reasoning by analogy are not otherwise defensible. I. SCHAUER’S CASE AGAINST COMMON LAW RULEMAKING Schauer begins with the premise that judges do in fact make law.3 Prior to the twentieth century, jurists often characterized their task as discovery of rules embedded in legal tradition and common practice.4 †Professor of Law, Cornell Law School. 1 See generally Frederick Schauer, Do Cases Make Bad Law?, 73 U Chi L Rev 883 (2006). -
Efficient Algorithms for Computing Approximate Equilibria in Bimatrix
Efficient Algorithms for Computing Approximate Equilibria in Bimatrix, Polymatrix and Lipschitz Games Thesis submitted in accordance with the requirements of the University of Liverpool for the degree of Doctor in Philosophy by Argyrios Deligkas July 2016 Abstract In this thesis, we study the problem of computing approximate equilibria in sev- eral classes of games. In particular, we study approximate Nash equilibria and approximate well-supported Nash equilibria in polymatrix and bimatrix games and approximate equilibria in Lipschitz games, penalty games and biased games. We construct algorithms for computing approximate equilibria that beat the cur- rent best algorithms for these problems. In Chapter 3, we present a distributed method to compute approximate Nash equilibria in bimatrix games. In contrast to previous approaches that analyze the two payoff matrices at the same time (for example, by solving a single LP that combines the two players' payoffs), our algorithm first solves two independent LPs, each of which is derived from one of the two payoff matrices, and then computes an approximate Nash equilibrium using only limited communication between the players. In Chapter 4, we present an algorithm that, for every δ in the range 0 < δ ≤ 0:5, finds a (0:5+δ)-Nash equilibrium of a polymatrix game in time polynomial in 1 the input size and δ . Note that our approximation guarantee does not depend on the number of players, a property that was not previously known to be achievable for polymatrix games, and still cannot be achieved for general strategic-form games. In Chapter 5, we present an approximation-preserving reduction from the problem of computing an approximate Bayesian Nash equilibrium (-BNE) for a two-player Bayesian game to the problem of computing an -NE of a polymatrix game and thus show that the algorithm of Chapter 4 can be applied to two-player Bayesian games.