Relation Exchange As the Model of Bounded Rationality
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Kranton Duke University
The Devil is in the Details – Implications of Samuel Bowles’ The Moral Economy for economics and policy research October 13 2017 Rachel Kranton Duke University The Moral Economy by Samuel Bowles should be required reading by all graduate students in economics. Indeed, all economists should buy a copy and read it. The book is a stunning, critical discussion of the interplay between economic incentives and preferences. It challenges basic premises of economic theory and questions policy recommendations based on these theories. The book proposes the path forward: designing policy that combines incentives and moral appeals. And, therefore, like such as book should, The Moral Economy leaves us with much work to do. The Moral Economy concerns individual choices and economic policy, particularly microeconomic policies with goals to enhance the collective good. The book takes aim at laws, policies, and business practices that are based on the classic Homo economicus model of individual choice. The book first argues in great detail that policies that follow from the Homo economicus paradigm can backfire. While most economists would now recognize that people are not purely selfish and self-interested, The Moral Economy goes one step further. Incentives can amplify the selfishness of individuals. People might act in more self-interested ways in a system based on incentives and rewards than they would in the absence of such inducements. The Moral Economy warns economists to be especially wary of incentives because social norms, like norms of trust and honesty, are critical to economic activity. The danger is not only of incentives backfiring in a single instance; monetary incentives can generally erode ethical and moral codes and social motivations people can have towards each other. -
Correlated Equilibria and Communication in Games Françoise Forges
Correlated equilibria and communication in games Françoise Forges To cite this version: Françoise Forges. Correlated equilibria and communication in games. Computational Complex- ity. Theory, Techniques, and Applications, pp.295-704, 2012, 10.1007/978-1-4614-1800-9_45. hal- 01519895 HAL Id: hal-01519895 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01519895 Submitted on 9 May 2017 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. Correlated Equilibrium and Communication in Games Françoise Forges, CEREMADE, Université Paris-Dauphine Article Outline Glossary I. De…nition of the Subject and its Importance II. Introduction III. Correlated Equilibrium: De…nition and Basic Properties IV. Correlated Equilibrium and Communication V. Correlated Equilibrium in Bayesian Games VI. Related Topics and Future Directions VII. Bibliography Acknowledgements The author wishes to thank Elchanan Ben-Porath, Frédéric Koessler, R. Vijay Krishna, Ehud Lehrer, Bob Nau, Indra Ray, Jérôme Renault, Eilon Solan, Sylvain Sorin, Bernhard von Stengel, Tristan Tomala, Amparo Ur- bano, Yannick Viossat and, especially, Olivier Gossner and Péter Vida, for useful comments and suggestions. Glossary Bayesian game: an interactive decision problem consisting of a set of n players, a set of types for every player, a probability distribution which ac- counts for the players’ beliefs over each others’ types, a set of actions for every player and a von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function de…ned over n-tuples of types and actions for every player. -
Analyzing Just-In-Time Purchasing Strategy in Supply Chains Using an Evolutionary Game Approach
Bulletin of the JSME Vol.14, No.5, 2020 Journal of Advanced Mechanical Design, Systems, and Manufacturing Analyzing just-in-time purchasing strategy in supply chains using an evolutionary game approach Ziang LIU* and Tatsushi NISHI** *Graduate School of Engineering Science, Osaka University 1-3 Machikaneyama-Cho, Toyonaka City, Osaka 560-8531, Japan E-mail: [email protected] **Graduate School of Natural Science and Technology, Okayama University 3-1-1 Tsushima-naka, Kita-ku, Okayama City, Okayama 700-8530, Japan Received: 18 December 2019; Revised: 30 March 2020; Accepted: 9 April 2020 Abstract Many researchers have focused on the comparison between the JIT model and the EOQ model. However, few of them studied this problem from an evolutionary perspective. In this paper, a JIT purchasing with the single- setup-multi-delivery model is introduced to compare the total costs of the JIT model and the EOQ model. Also, we extend the classical JIT-EOQ models to a two-echelon supply chain which consists of one manufacturer and one supplier. Considering the bounded rationality of players and the quickly changing market, an evolutionary game model is proposed to discuss how these factors impact the strategy selection of the companies. And the evolutionarily stable strategy of the proposed model is analyzed. Based on the analysis, we derive the conditions when the supply chain system will choose the JIT strategy and propose a contract method to ensure that the system converges to the JIT strategy. Several numerical experiments are provided to observe the JIT and EOQ purchasing strategy selection of the manufacturer and the supplier. -
Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow from the Standpoint of Old
Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow from the Standpoint of Old Behavioural Economics (For the 2012 HETSA Conference) Peter E. Earl School of Economics, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia, email: [email protected] Abstract Daniel Kahneman’s bestseller Thinking, Fast and Slow presents an account of his life’s work on judgment and decision-making (much of it conducted with Amos Tversky) that has been instrumental in the rise of what Sent (2004) calls ‘new behavioural economics’. This paper examines the relationship between Kahneman’s work and some key contributions within the ‘old behavioural’ literature that Kahneman fails to discuss. It show how closely aligned he is to economic orthodoxy, examining his selective use of Herbert Simon’s work in relation to his ‘two systems’ view of decision making and showing how Shackle’s model of choice under uncertainty provided an alternative way of dealing with some of the issues that Kahneman and Tversky sought to address, three decades after Shackle worked out his model, via their Prospect Theory. Aside from not including ‘loss aversion’, it was Shackle’s model that was the more original and philosophically well-founded. Keywords: Prospect Theory, satisficing, bounded rationality, choice under uncertainty JEL Classification Codes: B31, D03, D81 1. Introduction In his highly successful 2011 book Thinking, Fast and Slow Daniel Kahneman offers an excellent account of his career-long research on judgment and decision- making, much of it conducted with the late Amos Tversky. Kahneman was awarded the 2002 Bank of Sweden PriZe in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel for this work. -
Dynamic Games Under Bounded Rationality
Munich Personal RePEc Archive Dynamic Games under Bounded Rationality Zhao, Guo Southwest University for Nationalities 8 March 2015 Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/62688/ MPRA Paper No. 62688, posted 09 Mar 2015 08:52 UTC Dynamic Games under Bounded Rationality By ZHAO GUO I propose a dynamic game model that is consistent with the paradigm of bounded rationality. Its main advantages over the traditional approach based on perfect rationality are that: (1) the strategy space is a chain-complete partially ordered set; (2) the response function is certain order-preserving map on strategy space; (3) the evolution of economic system can be described by the Dynamical System defined by the response function under iteration; (4) the existence of pure-strategy Nash equilibria can be guaranteed by fixed point theorems for ordered structures, rather than topological structures. This preference-response framework liberates economics from the utility concept, and constitutes a marriage of normal-form and extensive-form games. Among the common assumptions of classical existence theorems for competitive equilibrium, one is central. That is, individuals are assumed to have perfect rationality, so as to maximize their utilities (payoffs in game theoretic usage). With perfect rationality and perfect competition, the competitive equilibrium is completely determined, and the equilibrium depends only on their goals and their environments. With perfect rationality and perfect competition, the classical economic theory turns out to be deductive theory that requires almost no contact with empirical data once its assumptions are accepted as axioms (see Simon 1959). Zhao: Southwest University for Nationalities, Chengdu 610041, China (e-mail: [email protected]). -
Arxiv:1512.06789V1 [Stat.ML] 21 Dec 2015
Information-Theoretic Bounded Rationality Pedro A. Ortega [email protected] University of Pennsylvania Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA Daniel A. Braun [email protected] Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems Max Planck Institute for Biological Cybernetics 72076 T¨ubingen,Germany Justin Dyer [email protected] Google Inc. Mountain View, CA 94043, USA Kee-Eung Kim [email protected] Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology Daejeon, Korea 305-701 Naftali Tishby [email protected] The Hebrew University Jerusalem, 91904, Israel Abstract Bounded rationality, that is, decision-making and planning under resource limitations, is widely regarded as an important open problem in artificial intelligence, reinforcement learning, computational neuroscience and economics. This paper offers a consolidated pre- sentation of a theory of bounded rationality based on information-theoretic ideas. We provide a conceptual justification for using the free energy functional as the objective func- tion for characterizing bounded-rational decisions. This functional possesses three crucial properties: it controls the size of the solution space; it has Monte Carlo planners that are exact, yet bypass the need for exhaustive search; and it captures model uncertainty arising from lack of evidence or from interacting with other agents having unknown intentions. We discuss the single-step decision-making case, and show how to extend it to sequential decisions using equivalence transformations. This extension yields a very general class of decision problems that encompass classical decision rules (e.g. Expectimax and Minimax) as limit cases, as well as trust- and risk-sensitive planning. arXiv:1512.06789v1 [stat.ML] 21 Dec 2015 c December 2015 by the authors. -
Imbalanced Collusive Security Games
Imbalanced Collusive Security Games Han-Ching Ou, Milind Tambe, Bistra Dilkina, and Phebe Vayanos Computer Science Department, University of Southern California {hanchino,tambe,dilkina,phebe.vayanos }@usc.edu Abstract. Colluding adversaries is a crucial challenge for defenders in many real-world applications. Previous literature has provided Collusive Security Games (COSG) to model colluding adversaries, and provided models and algorithms to generate defender strategies to counter colluding adversaries, often by devising strategies that inhibit collusion [6]. Unfortunately, this previous work focused exclusively on situations with perfectly matched adversaries, i.e., where their rewards were symmetrically distributed. In the real world, however, defenders often face adversaries where their rewards are asymmetrically distributed. Such inherent asymmetry raises a question as to whether human adversaries would at- tempt to collude in such situations, and whether defender strategies to counter such collusion should focus on inhibiting collusion. To address these open ques- tions, this paper: (i) explores and theoretically analyzes Imbalanced Collusive Security Games (ICOSG) where defenders face adversaries with asymmetrically distributed rewards; (ii) conducts extensive experiments of three different adver- sary models involving 1800 real human subjects and (iii) derives novel analysis of the reason behind why bounded rational attackers models outperform perfectly rational attackers models. The key principle discovered as the result of our -
Daniel Kahneman Curriculum Vitae August 2016
Daniel Kahneman Curriculum Vitae August 2016 Born: 1934, Tel Aviv, Israel Citizenship: US, Israel Education Ph.D. University of California, Berkeley, 1961 (Psychology) B.A. The Hebrew University, Jerusalem, 1954, (Psychology and Mathematics) Professional Positions Held 2007- Professor of Psychology and Public Affairs, Emeritus, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University 2007- Eugene Higgins Professor of Psychology, Emeritus, Princeton University 2000- Fellow, Center for Rationality, Hebrew University, Jerusalem 1993-2007 Eugene Higgins Professor of Psychology, Princeton University 1993-2007 Professor of Psychology and Public Affairs, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University 1991-1992 Visiting Scholar, Russell Sage Foundation 1986-1994 Professor of Psychology, University of California, Berkeley 1984-1986 Associate Fellow, Canadian Institute for Advanced Research 1978-1986 Professor of Psychology, The University of British Columbia 1977-1978 Fellow, Center for Advanced Studies in the Behavioral Sciences 1968-1969 Visiting Scientist (summers), Applied Psychological Research Unit, Cambridge, England 1966-1967 Fellow, Center for Cognitive Studies; Lecturer in Psychology, Harvard University 1965-1966 Visiting Scientist, Department of Psychology, University of Michigan 1961-1978 Lecturer to Professor, The Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel LINKS TO RECENT LECTURES Video and Audio Links “Interview with Leif Nelson,” The Society for Judgment and Decision Making, November 2015. “Thinking That We Know”, Sackler Colloquium to the National Academy -
511795 Chicago LR 73#3.Ps
Judges as Rulemakers Emily Sherwin† In Do Cases Make Bad Law?, Frederick Schauer raises some se- rious questions about the process of judicial lawmaking.1 Schauer takes issue with the widely held assumption that judge-made law benefits from the court’s focus on a particular real-world dispute.2 Writing with characteristic eloquence, Schauer argues that the need to resolve a concrete dispute does not enhance the ability of judges to craft sound rules, but instead generates cognitive biases that distort judicial development of legal rules. Schauer’s observations about the risks of rulemaking in an adju- dicatory setting are very persuasive. Yet his overall assessment of the common law process may be too severe. In this Essay, I shall suggest that common law decisionmaking, at least in its more traditional forms, has features that can counteract the biases that worry Schauer and provide at least some protection from the errors his theory pre- dicts. Specifically, the common judicial practices of consulting prece- dent decisions and seeking analogies in the facts of prior cases broaden the perspective of judges and allow them to better assess the consequences of proposed rules. This is so even if following precedent and reasoning by analogy are not otherwise defensible. I. SCHAUER’S CASE AGAINST COMMON LAW RULEMAKING Schauer begins with the premise that judges do in fact make law.3 Prior to the twentieth century, jurists often characterized their task as discovery of rules embedded in legal tradition and common practice.4 †Professor of Law, Cornell Law School. 1 See generally Frederick Schauer, Do Cases Make Bad Law?, 73 U Chi L Rev 883 (2006). -
Noisy Directional Learning and the Logit Equilibrium*
CSE: AR SJOE 011 Scand. J. of Economics 106(*), *–*, 2004 DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9442.2004.000376.x Noisy Directional Learning and the Logit Equilibrium* Simon P. Anderson University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22903-3328, USA [email protected] Jacob K. Goeree California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125, USA [email protected] Charles A. Holt University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22903-3328, USA [email protected] PROOF Abstract We specify a dynamic model in which agents adjust their decisions toward higher payoffs, subject to normal error. This process generates a probability distribution of players’ decisions that evolves over time according to the Fokker–Planck equation. The dynamic process is stable for all potential games, a class of payoff structures that includes several widely studied games. In equilibrium, the distributions that determine expected payoffs correspond to the distributions that arise from the logit function applied to those expected payoffs. This ‘‘logit equilibrium’’ forms a stochastic generalization of the Nash equilibrium and provides a possible explanation of anomalous laboratory data. ECTED Keywords: Bounded rationality; noisy directional learning; Fokker–Planck equation; potential games; logit equilibrium JEL classification: C62; C73 I. Introduction Small errors and shocks may have offsetting effects in some economic con- texts, in which case there is not much to be gained from an explicit analysis of stochasticNCORR elements. In other contexts, a small amount of randomness can * We gratefully acknowledge financial support from the National Science Foundation (SBR- 9818683U and SBR-0094800), the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and the Dutch National Science Foundation (NWO-VICI 453.03.606). -
Direct Tests of Cumulative Prospect Theory⇤
Direct Tests of Cumulative Prospect Theory⇤ B. Douglas Bernheim † Charles Sprenger‡ Stanford University and NBER UC San Diego First Draft: December 1, 2014 This Version: November 8, 2016 Abstract Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT), the leading behavioral account of decision making under uncertainty, assumes that the probability weight applied to a given outcome depends on its ranking. This assumption is needed to avoid the violations of dominance implied by Prospect Theory (PT). We devise a simple test involving three-outcome lotteries, based on the implication that compensating adjustments to the payo↵s in two states should depend on their rankings compared with payo↵s in a third state. In an experiment, we are unable to find any support for the assumption of rank dependence. We separately elicit probability weighting functions for the same subjects through conventional techniques involving binary lotteries. These functions imply that changes in payo↵rank should change the compensating adjustments in our three-outcome lotteries by 20-40%, yet we can rule out any change larger than 7% at standard confidence levels. Additional tests nevertheless indicate that the dominance patterns predicted by PT do not arise. We reconcile these findings by positing a form of complexity aversion that generalizes the well-known certainty e↵ect. JEL classification: D81, D90 Keywords:ProspectTheory,CumulativeProspectTheory,RankDependence,CertaintyEquiv- alents. ⇤We are grateful to Ted O’Donoghue, Colin Camerer, Nick Barberis, Kota Saito, and seminar participants at Cornell, Caltech, and Gary’s Conference (UC Santa Barbara) for helpful and thoughtful discussions. Fulya Ersoy, Vincent Leah-Martin, Seung-Keun Martinez, and Alex Kellogg all provided valuable research assistance. -
Price Dispersion in the Lab and on the Internet: Theory and Evi- Dence
View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Research Papers in Economics Price dispersion in the lab and on the Internet: Theory and evi- dence MichaelR.Baye∗ John Morgan∗∗ Price dispersion is ubiquitous in settings that closely approximate textbook Bertrand competition. We show (Propositions 2 and 3) that only a little bounded rationality among sellers is needed to rationalize such dispersion. A variety of statistical tests, based on data sets from two indepen- dent laboratory experiments and structural estimates of the parameters of our models, suggest that bounded rationality based theories of price dispersion organize the data remarkably well. Evidence is also presented which suggests that the models are consistent with data from a leading Internet price comparison site. *Department of Business Economics and Public Policy, Kelley School of Business, Indiana Univer- sity, Bloomington, IN 47405. Phone: (812) 855-2779. E-mail: [email protected]. ** Haas School of Business and Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720. Phone: (510) 642-2669. E-mail: [email protected]. We thank the Editor, the referees, and numerous seminar participants for helpful comments on earlier versions of this paper. We are especially grateful to Dilip Abreu, Martin Dufwenberg, Glenn Ellison, Nancy Epling, Ed Glaeser, Uri Gneezy, Paul Klemperer, Dan Kovenock, David Laibson, John Maxwell, Martin Sefton, Dale Stahl, and Abdullah Yavas. The authors thank Nuffield College (University of Oxford), Trinity and Corpus Christi Colleges (University of Cambridge), University of Nottingham, The Hoover Institution, and the University of Bonn for their gracious hospitality and for providing a stimulating environment where some of this work was completed.