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National Administration of Roads Document of The World Bank Public Disclosure Authorized Report No. 16153-RO Public Disclosure Authorized STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT ROMANIA Second Roads Project May 8, 1997 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Infrastructure Operations Division Country Department I Europe and Central Asia Region CURRENCY EOUIVALENTS (as of April 30, 1997) Currency Unit = Leu US$1 = 7,095 Lei 1 Leu = US$0.00014 AVERAGE EXCHANGE RATES Leu = US$1 1995 1996 January 1997 February 1997 March 1997 2,033 3,084 5,146 6,896 7,236 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES Metric System ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ARL - Enterprise for Road Repairs and Works CEE - Central and East European EBRD - European Bank for Reconstruction and Development EIB - European Investment Bank EU - European Union HDM - Highway Design Model ICRS - Interministerial Committee for Road Safety IPTANA - Design Institute for Road, Water and Air Transport IRI - International Roughness Index MOT - Ministry of Transport NAR - National Administration of Roads NMT - Non-motorized transport PHARE - Fund for Assistance to Central and European Countries RA - Regie Autonome RAR - Romania Automobile Registry RD - Regional Directorate (of NAR) SICRS - Secretariat of the Interministerial Committee on Road Safety TERN - European Road Network VPD - Vehicles per day ROMANIA - FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 Vice President: Johannes Linn, ECAVP Director: Kenneth G. Lay, ECIDR Division Chief: Ricardo Halperin, ECIIN Staff:: Charles Jeremy Lane (Senior Highway Engineer; Task Manager); Jacques Yenny (Principal Transport Economist); Sven-Ake Blomberg (Traffic Safety Engineer); Anca Dumitrescu (Project Officer, Resident Mission); Sudipto Sarkar, Environment Specialist Peer Reviewers were: E. Vasur (EC2ET) and S. Lundebye (SAIIN) STAFF APPRAISALREPORT ROMANIA SecondRoads Project CONTENTS LOAN AND PROJECT SUMMARY......... .... ........................ I. THE TRANSPORTSECTOR.1 A. The Transport System .1 . ........................... B. Traffic .................. ........................1 C. Investments.. 2 D. Institutions.............. ........................ 2 E. SectoralIssues .............. ........................ 3 F. Sector Strategy ............. ........................ 3 G. Previous Bank Experience in the Sector .4 H. Role of the Bank and Lending Strategy .5 II. THE HIGHWAYSECTOR ............ ........................ 6 A. Infrastructure.......................... 6 B. Road Transport ............. ....................... 10 C. EnvironmentalAspects ................................ 12 m. THE PROJECT .. 13 A. Project Objectives............ ....................... 13 B. Project Description................................... 13 C. Engineeringand Status of Project Preparation .15 D. Cost Estimates .............. ....................... 16 E. Project Financing ....... ......................... 16 F. Implementationand Monitoring........................... 17 G. Procurement ....................................... 18 H. Disbursements ........................ 18 I. Project Supervision................................... 19 J. EnvironmentalImpact .19 K. Project Accountsand Auditing............................ 20 L. Poverty Impact ......................... 20 IV. ECONOMIC EVALUATION.21 A. Framework.21 B. Cost-BenefitAnalysis ................................. 21 C. Sensitivityand Risk ........................ 24 V. AGREEMENTSAND RECOMMENDATIONS . .25 CONTENTS (Cont'd) TABLES Table 1.1 - Freight Traffic by Mode of Transport Table 1.2 - Passenger Traffic by Mode of Transport Table 1.3 - Transport Sector Investment Table 2.1 - Road User Charges: Fuel Tax Revenues Table 2.2 - Road Sector Revenuesand Expenditures, 1994-2003 Table 3.1 - World Bank Financed Road Sections Table 3.2 - NAR's EquipmentFleet by Type and Age Table 3.3 - List of Equipmentto be Procured under the Project Table 3.4 - Project Cost Estimate Table 3.5 - Summary of Proposed ProcurementArrangements Table 3.6 - EstimatedSchedule of Disbursement CHARTS Chart 1 - NAR's Organization Chart Chart 2 - NAR's Organization Chart ANNEXES Annex 1 Project ManagementUnit: Terms of Reference Annex 2 ProcurementSchedule for IBRD Financed Items Annex 3 Traffic Safety Annex 4 MonitorableIndicators Annex 5 TechnicalAssistance for Traffic Safety: Terms of Reference Annex 6 Project ImplementationPlan Annex 7 EconomicAnalysis of Road Sectionsto be Rehabilitated Annex 8 Documentsin the Project File MAP IBRD No. 27751 ROMANIA SECOND ROADSPROJECTS Loan and Project Summary Borrower: Romania Beneficiariesand NationalAdministration of Roads (NAR); RomaniaAutomobile Registry ImplementingAgencies: (RAR); Ministry of Transport Secretariatto the InterministerialCommittee for Traffic Safety (MOT/SICRS);Ministry of Education; Traffic Police Department. Amount: US$150 million. Terms: 20 years including5 years grace at the standard interest rate for LIBOR- based US dollar single currency loans. CommitmentFee: 0.75% of the undisbursedloan balances,beginning 60 days after signing, less any waiver. OnlendingTerms: Same as Bank terms. Project Objectives: a) improve traffic safety and the fitness of the vehicle fleet; b) continuehelping Romania to meet the changing pattern of demand for land transport infrastructure; c) improve the managementand performanceof NAR; d) assist the Romaniancivil works constructionindustry in its transition to a market economy; and e) promote the reductionof lead in petrol. Project Description: The project will consist of 5 components: a) a program of about 1,000 km of road and bridge rehabilitationto include overlayingor reconstructionon the existing alignment, some widening, constructionof hard shoulders and minor geometric improvements; b) a traffic safety program (TSP) involvingcomponents in education, engineering, (roads and vehicles) and enforcement; c) a program of institution buildinginvolving computerizationof NAR and the introductionof bridge and pavementmanagement systems; transport planning; continuationof work towards contracting ii out/privatizingof periodic maintenanceand installationof permanent traffic counting and axle load controls; d) a program of assistanceto the road and bridge constructionindustry, includingestablishment of a secretariat; training programs and financingof equipment; and e) preparation of an Action Plan for the reduction of lead in petrol. Project Benefits and Risks: The project supports the rehabilitationof infrastructure,harmonization of standards with the EU and environmentalimprovements which have been identified as priority concerns in the Bank's Country AssistanceStrategy (CAS). The project also will raise the efficiencyof public sector management,reduce the state role in the economyby contracting out constructionand maintenanceactivities previously handled by force account. The project benefits are in terms of reduced transport cost and reduced accident costs which are expectedto be widely dispersed throughout the economy. The weighted average ERRs for road rehabilitationis 48%. For the road safety componentERRs range from 40% to over 90%. There are few risks which would affectthe economicrates of return of the project. For the road rehabilitationcomponent, the main one would be that traffic growth would be less than expectedand benefits would thus be lower than estimated. For the road safety component,the risk is that the reduction of accidentswill be less than expected,but the savings of even minor reductionin accidents are so large in comparisonto the level of investmentthat the ERR will remain high. The more significantrisks are of a broader institutionalnature: a) insufficientcounterpart funds. The risk has been reduced with the recent approval of the Road Fund Law which will provide NAR with funds to complementthe budget allocation. In addition the Governmenthas undertakenthat the project will be given priority over any other investmentsto be undertakenby NAR, however a residual risk does remain given Romania's history of fiscal difficulties, and in anticipationof potential problems, annual consultationson budget allocationsand a mid-term review are provided under the project; b) strained implementationcapacity in the earlier stages of the project, while the Transport Project is still under implementation. To reduce this risk, technicalassistance to the PMU is provided in the project; c) delays in implementingthe agreed strategy on commercializationof periodic maintenanceoperations. NAR has already started the iii process in 3 of its 7 regions and there is specific assistance in the project to deepen and extend the process; and d) implementationof the traffic safety componentis dispersedamong many different agenciesnot used to working together and coordinationmay be difficult. The project envisagesdrawing technical assistancefrom an establishedEuropean traffic safety organization with links to its own analogousagencies. Economic Rate of Return: About 48 % Poverty Category: N/A Map: IBRD 27751 ProjectID Number: RO-PA-39250 I. THE TRANSPORTSECTOR A. The TransportSystem 1.1 Romania is one of the largest of the former centrally planned economiesin the Central and East European (CEE) Region with a land area of 237,000 square km and a populationof 23 million, second only to Poland. Per capita income in 1995 was estimated at about US$1,450. The country has a wide range of natural resources, includinga fertile agriculturalbase, depositsof coal, lignite, oil, natural gas and other minerals. Long a major food producer, Romania was a large exporter of agriculturalproducts until the early eighties. 1.2 The transport
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