Theodore Roosevelt, Politics, and the Panic of 1907 April 6-9, 2017 Paper presented at the 2017 Midwest Political Science Association Annual Conference in Chicago, IL (20,400 words) By Mark Zachary Taylor Associate Professor Sam Nunn School of International Affairs Georgia Institute of Technology 781 Marietta St NW Atlanta, GA 30332-0610 (FedEx/UPS Zip Code: 30318) Phone: (404) 385-0600 Fax: (404) 894-1900 contact:
[email protected] ABSTRACT Can the President affect the nation’s short-run economic performance? If so, then by which mechanisms? Quantitative research has produced disparate, conflicting, and sometimes biased answers to these questions. Therefore, this paper presents a qualitative analysis of the two-term administration of Theodore Roosevelt; a “natural experiment” which allows us to generate new theory. During both of his terms, Roosevelt faced very similar national issues. So too did the US economy confront similar circumstances across these years. Interestingly, each term was also buffeted by a recession. The first recession (1903-1904) was relatively shallow. In fact, by the end of his first term, Roosevelt can be said to have been enjoying above average performance across multiple macroeconomic measures. However, Roosevelt’s second term was an economic disaster. The second recession (1907-1908) was accompanied by a full-fledged financial panic, which rippled throughout the economy, around the world, and had negative effects on American economic performance for years to come. Roosevelt cannot be said to have directly caused either recession. However, we can identify significant shifts in his leadership, especially in his alliances and trust-building, that clearly contributed to both downturns.