PDS 082-2019) and Concluded That Wetown Is a Considerable Departure from What Is Contemplated for This Location in the Current Official Community Plan (OCP)

COUNCIL REPORT

Executive Committee Report No. PDS 105-2019

Date: December 10, 2019 File No: 6520-20

To: Mayor and Council From: Mitchell Comb, Senior Planner Subject: McKee Neighbourhood Plan - Additional Resources for WeTown

RECOMMENDATION

1. THAT Council consider the additional resources needed to review the WeTown proposal through the McKee Neighbourhood Planning process, as outlined in Report PDS 105- 2019; and

2. THAT Council direct staff to prepare a budget amendment for $675,000.

REPORT CONCURRENCE

General Manager City Manager

The Acting General Manager concurs with the The City Manager concurs with the recommendation of this report. recommendation of this report.

PURPOSE

The purpose of this report is to outline the additional resources and timeline required to consider the WeTown proposal through the McKee Neighbourhood Planning process.

SUMMARY OF THE ISSUE

On October 7, 2019, staff introduced to Council a development concept called WeTown. Council directed staff to outline the resources required to undertake additional work to consider the WeTown proposal through the McKee Neighbourhood Planning process. Given the scale and complexity of the WeTown proposal, there are both neighbourhood and city-wide implications to consider, leading to the need for additional resources and an extension to the timeline. This report provides a summary of the additional work, resources and time required, for Council’s consideration.

BACKGROUND

Auguston Town Developments Inc. has submitted a proposal for a development concept within

Report No. PDS 105-2019 Page 2 of 8 the Auguston neighbourhood, called “WeTown”. WeTown is a high density, mixed-use, tech- oriented development concept within the Auguston neighbourhood. The proponent estimates that WeTown will accommodate 18,000 new jobs and 28,800 residents within a total built floor area of 15.5 million square feet, and predicts full build-out in 20 years.

Staff introduced the WeTown proposal to Council at the Executive Committee meeting on October 7, 2019 (PDS 082-2019) and concluded that WeTown is a considerable departure from what is contemplated for this location in the current Official Community Plan (OCP). The OCP envisions a mixed-use neighbourhood centre intended to meet the daily needs of future and nearby residents. This is envisioned at a height of 4 storeys, in order to fit with the overall neighbourhood scale. The entire McKee neighbourhood population is envisioned to be 15,000 people. The WeTown concept, in essence, creates a second ‘City Centre’ that is currently not connected to the City’s primary transit corridor and in a location that would require significant municipal infrastructure upgrades and amenities not anticipated in the OCP or recently completed master plans.

Council directed staff to consider the WeTown proposal through the McKee Neighbourhood Plan, and to outline the resources required to undertake the additional work for the McKee Neighbourhood Planning process. Staff have since prepared a revised scope for the planning process, and have identified the required additional resources and time, which are outlined in this report.

DISCUSSION

Neighbourhood Plans are planning documents that guide development in key areas of the city. These documents provide direction to Council, staff, the community, and land owners as to what the land can be used for and how it will be serviced.

A typical planning process to prepare a Neighbourhood Plan involves four stages of work over 18-24 months, including: (1) background research; (2) exploring options; (3) preparing a draft plan; and (4) revising the draft plan into a final plan. Through each stage, staff reports to Council to review the work completed and to present a summary of feedback from the community. To date, Council has adopted three Neighbourhood Plans including City Centre, Historic Downtown and UDistrict.

2. McKee Neighbourhood Plan a. Introduction

The study area for the McKee Neighbourhood Plan (NP) includes lands designated “New Neighbourhoods” within the Official Community Plan (OCP). The “New Neighbourhoods” area is located in the northeast corner of the Urban Development Boundary and is mostly undeveloped.

The McKee NP is intended to help transform the area into a complete community for up to 15,000 residents, with vibrant neighbourhoods and a mixed-use Neighbourhood Centre that are integrated into the natural and mountainous landscape as envisioned in the OCP. A planning process to prepare the McKee NP is currently underway following a similar approach to the City’s previous NPs.

Report No. PDS 105-2019 Page 3 of 8

The following sections (b) through (e) provide a summary of the four-stage McKee Neighbourhood Planning process, including the original scope aligning with the OCP and revised scope considering the WeTown proposal. A summary is included in Section 3. b. Stage 1 – Background Research

Original scope and timeline: Stage 1 is currently underway, and environmental, geotechnical and archaeological studies have been conducted within the McKee NP area. The intent of this work is to identify lands that should be protected and lands that may be suitable for development. The findings of Stage 1 are intended to inform the exploration of options in Stage 2. The original timeline for Stage 1 to be completed is anticipated to be six months. With the majority of the analysis completed, staff are on schedule to bring a completed Stage 1 report to Council in early 2020.

Revised scope with additional resources and time: Further environmental, geotechnical and archaeological analysis should be conducted by the consulting team in order to consider the WeTown proposal. This additional work is required given the detailed nature of the WeTown proposal, to ensure that there is an adequate understanding of the developable area of the WeTown site. Staff will also undertake a procurement process to engage additional consultants for planning and design work in Stages 2 and 3. The additional work is anticipated to add approximately three months to the Stage 1 timeline.

c. Stage 2 – Explore Options

Original scope and timeline: Stage 2 will focus on exploring options for the McKee NP area. This work will include the preparation of concepts (i.e., land use, servicing, and parks, recreation and culture) and neighbourhood-focused engagement. Stage 2 will conclude with the preparation of a preferred concept to be further refined in Stage 3. The original timeline for Stage 2 to be completed is anticipated to be six months (late 2020).

Revised scope with additional resources and time: A number of additional items for Planning & Development Services (PDS), Engineering, Parks, Recreation and Culture (PRC), and Fire Rescue Service (FRS) should be added to the original Stage 2 scope of work in order to consider the WeTown proposal. Key additional items are as follows:

 PDS – Prepare concepts and options for a Neighbourhood Centre (including photorealistic renderings for each concept) and conduct enhanced community engagement including interactive events and/or online engagement that reach a broader, city-wide audience. In order to accomplish this additional work, staff require additional budget for consulting services and the reallocation of existing internal staff resources from other work plan priorities to the McKee NP.

 Engineering – Conduct additional conceptual-level infrastructure and transportation studies for each Neighbourhood Centre concept, and prepare order of magnitude cost estimates that address the neighbourhood and city-wide implications of the WeTown proposal.

 PRC – Analyze the park, recreation and cultural needs for each Neighbourhood Centre concept, including potential neighbourhood and city-wide implications of the WeTown

Report No. PDS 105-2019 Page 4 of 8

proposal. Additional budget is required for consulting services to undertake this Needs Analysis, as well as engaging an external PRC specialist.

 FRS – Analyze the Fire Rescue Service needs for each Neighbourhood Centre concept, including potential neighbourhood and city-wide implications of the WeTown proposal. Additional budget is required for consulting services to undertake this Needs Analysis.

The additional work outlined above is anticipated to add approximately six months to the Stage 2 timeline. d. Stage 3 – Draft Plan

Original scope: Stage 3 will focus on preparing the draft McKee NP using findings and direction from Stages 1 and 2. The scope of this work includes land use, urban design, neighbourhood- level trails and parks, and neighbourhood-level infrastructure (including modeling and preparation of Class D cost estimates). Neighbourhood-focused engagement on the draft NP would also be completed in this stage. The original timeline for Stage 3 to be completed is anticipated to be six months (mid 2021).

Revised scope with additional resources: A number of additional items for PDS, Engineering, PRC, and FRS should be added to the original Stage 3 scope in order to consider the WeTown proposal. Key additional items are as follows:

 PDS – Prepare a draft NP with added complexity due to the inclusion of WeTown (e.g., prepare additional land use categories, policies, design guidelines, etc. to address the uniqueness of WeTown) and conduct enhanced city-wide engagement on the draft NP. In order to accomplish this additional work, staff require additional budget for consulting services and the reallocation of existing internal staff resources from other work plan priorities to the McKee NP.

 Engineering – Conduct additional infrastructure modeling and cost estimates to understand the neighbourhood and city-wide implications of adding 28,800 additional residents on the WeTown site, and identify necessary changes to infrastructure Master Plans.

 PRC – Refine the analysis of park, recreation and cultural needs to understand the additional neighbourhood and city-wide implications of adding 28,800 additional residents on the WeTown site, and identify necessary changes to the PRC Master Plan. Additional budget is required for consulting services - for refinement of the Needs Analysis and continued secondment of a PRC specialist.

 FRS – Refine the analysis of Fire Rescue Service needs to understand the additional neighbourhood and city-wide implications of adding 28,800 additional residents on the WeTown site, and identify necessary changes to the FRS Master Plan. Additional budget is required for consulting services to undertake this work.

The additional work outlined above is anticipated to add approximately six months to the Stage 3 timeline. e. Stage 4 – Final Plan

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Stage 4 includes finalizing the McKee NP based on the Stage 3 engagement and conducting the bylaw adoption process. These tasks will be completed using existing staff resources, within the original anticipated timeline of three months. A revised scope and additional resources are not required for Stage 4, as the work required to consider the WeTown proposal will be completed in Stages 1-3.

3. Summary of Additional Resources and Time

Given the scale and complexity of the WeTown proposal, staff anticipate that significant additional work will be required to consider WeTown through the McKee NP. This will require additional budget, reallocation of existing internal staff resources, and an adjusted timeline, as summarized in sections (a) - (c) below. a. Budget

Table 1 below provides a budget summary, including a comparison of the original McKee NP budget ($771,000) to the revised budget based on the revised scope of work ($1,446,000). The total budget increase as a result of considering WeTown through the McKee NP is $675,000.

Table 1 – Additional Budget Summary

Original Revised Dept. Item Increase Budget Budget Archaeological study $90,000 $110,000 $20,000 Environmental study $60,000 $80,000 $20,000 Geotechnical study $90,000 $110,000 $20,000 PDS Planning and design $50,000 $250,000 $200,000 Contingency $45,000 $45,000 $0 Economics/Planning $0 $50,000 $50,000 Consultant Servicing studies, modelling, ENG cost estimates and $436,000 $476,000 $40,000 contingency $0 (internal PRC Needs Analysis $250,000 $250,000 resources only) $0 (internal FRS Needs Analysis $75,000 $75,000 resources only) TOTAL $771,000 $1,446,000 $675,000

b. Internal Staff Resources

Original scope: The original McKee NP scope, which aligned with the OCP, required 1 Community Planning FTE to manage and complete the four stages of work. It was intended that Engineering, PRC and FRS staff would support the planning process by providing input, reviewing material and assisting with community engagement.

Report No. PDS 105-2019 Page 6 of 8

Revised scope: Additional internal staff resources will be needed to assist with the WeTown review. Staff estimate that a total of 1.5 additional FTE’s are required, consisting of a Community Planner (1 FTE) and Planning Technician (0.5 FTE):  The Community Planner will manage the preparation of concepts and options for the Neighbourhood Centre. With this additional staff requirement, other Community Planning initiatives (i.e. Zoning Bylaw Update), scheduled to commence in early 2020, will be deferred pending completion of the McKee NP.

 The Planning Technician plays a support role in planning initiatives and projects. Due to the extensive mapping and graphics support, more time and attention will be devoted to the McKee NP process, resulting in less resources for other Community Planning initiatives (e.g., AgRefresh).

c. Schedule / Timeline

Table 2 below provides a summary of the original and revised timeline for the McKee NP. The total increase in the timeline as a result of considering WeTown through the McKee NP is approximately 15 months.

Table 2 – Additional Time Summary

Original Revised Stage Increase Timeline Timeline 1 6 months 9 months 3 months 2 6 months 12 months 6 months 3 6 months 12 months 6 months 4 3 months 3 months - TOTAL 21 months 36 months 15 months

The timelines shown in Table 2 are estimates based on the original and revised work plans for the McKee NP. The timelines reflect a typical planning process, but do not take into account potential unforeseen delays (e.g. ministry referrals or approvals).

4. Community Planning Work Plan Adjustments

Since the completion of Plan for 200K, PDS has prepared a Work Plan identifying projects to be undertaken over the next several years. Immediate priorities include Zoning Bylaw Updates and a Heritage Strategy:

Zoning Bylaw Updates: The intent of Zoning Bylaw updates is to implement new municipal policies, improve regulations, incorporate changes in Provincial or Federal legislation, and to address administrative issues. Staff undertake Zoning Bylaw updates as needed, using a

Report No. PDS 105-2019 Page 7 of 8 phased approach. The next phase of work was intended to commence in early 2020 and include:

 Aligning existing residential, commercial and other zones with the OCP. This would include updating the Historic Downtown (C7) and City Centre (C5) zones  Reviewing city-wide residential regulations in order to clearly define different housing typologies, reflecting the diverse housing options envisioned in the OCP  Undertaking an administrative/housekeeping update

Zoning Bylaw updates will be deferred as a result of considering WeTown through the McKee NP.

Heritage Strategy: The intent of undertaking a Heritage Strategy is to identify heritage assets, engage the community, and arrive at an actionable plan that works for the City and stakeholders. Council recently approved a budget request to undertake a Heritage Strategy. This project was intended to commence in 2020, but may be deferred as a result of considering WeTown through the McKee NP.

5. Post-McKee NP Impacts

Given the scale and complexity of the WeTown proposal, it has the potential to impact a number of plans and bylaws, such as the OCP, Master Plans, DCC Bylaw and Long-Term Financial Plan. Starting in 2014, the City has undertaken a significant amount of work to develop a new OCP. This was followed by Plan for 200K and aligning the new Master Plans with the OCP. The final step is the Long-Term Financial Plan (including a DCC Bylaw Update). This was intended to be a strategic process to ensure a coordinated vision and implementation in working towards a city of 200,000 people.

Following adoption of the McKee NP, an update to the OCP, Master Plans, DCC Bylaw and Long-Term Financial Plan would be required to reflect the neighbourhood and city-wide implications of adding WeTown. The resources and time needed to update the City’s guiding documents are beyond those identified in this report.

FINANCIAL PLAN IMPLICATION

The financial resources required to undertake the additional work to consider the WeTown proposal through the McKee Neighbourhood Planning process will require a budget amendment for $675,000.00 to the 2020-2024 Financial Plan.

Rajat Sharma General Manager, Finance and Corporate Services Signed 12/6/2019 12:36 PM

IMPACTS ON COUNCIL POLICIES, STRATEGIC PLAN AND/OR COUNCIL DIRECTION

Given the scale and complexity of the WeTown proposal, it has the potential to impact a number of plans and bylaws, such as Council’s Strategic Plan Priorities, OCP, Master Plans, DCC

Report No. PDS 105-2019 Page 8 of 8

Bylaw and Long-Term Financial Plan. This may include reopening the work that was recently accomplished through the Plan for 200K process.

SUBSTANTIATION OF RECOMMENDATION

As directed by Council on October 7, 2019 (PDS 082-2019), staff has outlined the resources required to undertake the additional work to consider the WeTown proposal through the McKee neighbourhood planning process. Staff is recommending that Council consider the additional resources needed to review the WeTown proposal through the McKee Neighbourhood planning process as outlined in this report, and that Council direct staff to prepare a budget amendment for $675,000.

Mitchell Comb Mark Neill Senior Planner Acting GM, Planning and Development Services Signed 12/5/2019 11:11 AM Signed 12/6/2019 11:26 AM

Mark Neill Acting GM, Planning and Development Services Signed 12/9/2019 9:18 AM

ATTACHMENTS: Attachment A - PDS 082-2019

COUNCIL REPORT

Executive Committee Report No. PDS 082-2019

Date: October 03, 2019 File No: 6520-20

To: Mayor and Council From: Mitchell Comb, Senior Planner Subject: Review of the WeTown Proposal

RECOMMENDATION

1. THAT should Council wish to explore the WeTown proposal as outlined in the WeTown, OCP Compatibility Study, 2018, it be considered through the McKee Neighbourhood planning process; and

2. THAT Council direct staff to outline the resources required to undertake the additional work for the McKee Neighbourhood planning process.

REPORT CONCURRENCE

General Manager City Manager

The General Manager concurs with the The City Manager concurs with the recommendation of this report. recommendation of this report.

PURPOSE

To introduce the WeTown proposal to Council, provide a high level preliminary review, outline some of the opportunities and challenges it presents, and summarize potential next steps.

SUMMARY OF THE ISSUE

Auguston Town Developments Inc. (ATDI) has submitted a proposal for a high density, mixed-

Report No. PDS 082-2019 Page 2 of 15 use, tech-oriented development concept within the Auguston neighbourhood. ATDI estimates “WeTown” will accommodate 18,000 new jobs and 28,800 residents within a total built floor area of 15.5 million square feet, and predict full build-out within 20 years. The proposal is a departure from what is contemplated for this location in the current Official Community Plan (OCP), which envisions a mixed-use neighbourhood centre intended to meet the daily needs of future and nearby residents.

ATDI has put a significant amount of time and resources into preparing an ambitious development proposal. Several of the conceptual underpinnings align with city building practice, such as concentrating growth in a mixed use community where people can live, work, play and study. While the OCP supports these planning and growth principles throughout the city, it is deliberate with regards to the scale of growth, development density, and geographic distribution set out in the coordinated hierarchy of ‘centres’. The WeTown concept aligns well with these general OCP principles, but not at the scale or function proposed for the location. The concept, in essence, creates a second ‘City Centre’ that is currently not connected to the City’s primary transit corridor and in a location that would require significant municipal infrastructure upgrades not anticipated in the OCP or recently completed master plans.

City staff engaged Eric Vance & Associates to provide a third party review of the WeTown – OCP Compatibility Study, September 2018, (WeTown proposal) that was submitted to the City. Eric Vance & Associates provided an assessment of the land use and development aspects of the proposal, as well as the economic viability of the project. This review will provide Council with a high level assessment of the proposed concept, and will highlight some of the key opportunities and challenges with the WeTown proposal.

Staff is seeking direction from Council whether the WeTown proposal should be considered through the neighbourhood planning process. Should Council wish to explore the WeTown proposal through the McKee Neighbourhood planning process, a significant amount of information is needed to fully understand and consider the merits of it. Alternatively, Council may wish to direct staff to continue working towards implementing the vision of the Official Community Plan through the McKee Neighbourhood planning process.

BACKGROUND

1. WeTown Proposal Overview

The WeTown proposal is a comprehensive document outlining ATDI’s development vision for the undeveloped Auguston lands straddling McKee Road, south of the existing Auguston Neighbourhood. The following introductory overview of the concept is comprised largely of excerpts from the full ATDI proposal document (Attachment A).

“Auguston Town Development Inc. (ATDI) is exploring opportunities to develop a mixed use hi- tech oriented community in the Auguston area of the City of Abbotsford. The development intends to fill an important gap in British Columbia, introducing a world class hi-tech hub that will stimulate the economy. WeTown will offer residential and employment opportunities for residents of Abbotsford that reflect current and projected trends, attracting highly skilled hi-tech employees from around the world.

The WeTown development concept is founded upon creating a regional hi-tech hub in the heart of the Fraser Valley that will generate significant population and economic growth for the region.

Report No. PDS 082-2019 Page 3 of 15

Importantly, the objectives are to do so in a way that complements the City of Abbotsford’s Official Community Plan and its commitment to developing a City of Mixed Use Centres, as well as to help the City grow into a smart city. This will be achieved by creating a self-contained mixed-use community at WeTown that is a model of sustainable development.”

The concept is proposed to be built on 91.5 acres, and at full build-out would house approximately 28,800 residents in roughly 12,500 residential apartment units. The proposed density for the site would range between 2.5 to 4.0 FSR, and resulting building heights would be in excess of 23 storeys. As part of the self-contained mixed use community, new hi-tech related industries located on site would provide an additional 18,000 jobs to the local economy.

To service the proposed concept, ATDI is proposing innovative servicing solutions such as implementing a grey water recycling program, and using green roofs and large storm water detention ponds to meet stormwater detention requirements. Transportation is focused on providing sustainable transportation options and promoting walking, cycling, car sharing and transit use.

The proposal “highlights the vision for WeTown as it relates to land use marketability, mobility, drainage and stormwater servicing, environmental considerations, and compatibility with the Official Community Plan.”

2. Official Community Plan (OCP)

The OCP ensures that the many interests such as sustainability, land use, and investment in a community are directed towards a common vision and that change is managed in a coordinated manner. The OCP is designed to provide both high-level strategic directions through policies, and detailed growth provisions through land use regulations – collectively setting the overarching vision and direction of the OCP. Below is a summary of some OCP policies and land use regulations relevant to the WeTown proposal. a. Strategic direction regarding employment and economy The OCP strives to ensure Abbotsford’s economy will continue to be one of the most diverse and resilient in the country, acknowledging the City’s regional importance and seeking new opportunities that will continue to draw investment. The OCP includes several policies to guide City decision making with regards to the economy and employment, with highlights set out below:

 4.21: Local Jobs and Short Commutes Continue to balance the number of jobs to number of residents employed in the labour force in the city, reducing the need for longer commute distances for residents. Support opportunities for jobs within complete neighbourhoods wherever feasible.

 4.22: Employment Hubs Support employment hubs by encouraging the City Centre as the primary office hub of the city, with supporting office and amenity areas near the University of the Fraser Valley and the Abbotsford Regional Hospital.

 4.24 Creative Industries Investigate opportunities for expanding creative industries, including consideration of measures to create affordable studio or workshop space, live/work uses, and flexible spaces where people can gather to share equipment and ideas. Leverage existing high

Report No. PDS 082-2019 Page 4 of 15

tech infrastructure, such as the fibre optic network through the City Centre and Urban Centres, to draw new industries into the urban area.

 4.25 Technical Industry Advancement Support technological advancements and integration by existing industries such as agriculture, advanced manufacturing, and aerospace/aviation to develop Abbotsford as an innovation hub. Consider developing a technology strategy for creating a colocation hub or incubator in the City Centre and Urban Centres.

The policies of the OCP are intended to provide a high level direction for key topics and provide the context for strategic directions for the City to consider. The employment and economic policies of the OCP need to be carefully considered in tandem with OCP land use and growth regulations. b. Land Use Regulation

Urban Structure

The OCP’s urban structure and growth plan is the foundation that will shape the way the City builds out. Understanding the City’s ‘hierarchy of centres’ and the role of different neighbourhoods is important context for considering the WeTown proposal and potential city wide implications.

The OCP states that all future growth will be contained within the Urban Development Boundary (UDB), with 75% of future residential growth taking place in ‘centres’ and existing neighbourhoods, and 25% of future residential growth taking place in New Neighbourhoods. Within the UDB, the city can accommodate a population of at least 200,000. This means that of the 60,000 new residents, 45,000 will be accommodated within centres and existing neighbourhoods, and the remaining 15,000 future residents will reside within the New Neighbourhoods area.

The overall structure for the urban core is defined by a hierarchy of mixed use centres, anchored by ground oriented multifamily, low, mid, and high rise housing, and connected by a primary transit corridor that intensifies over time (see Figure 1).

Report No. PDS 082-2019 Page 5 of 15

Figure 1: OCP Urban Structure

City Centre

The City Centre is the heart of Abbotsford’s public, economic, and cultural life, and has a city wide draw. At the top of the ‘centres’ hierarchy, the City Centre is intended to have the highest density of jobs and people in the city, and is the only neighbourhood where high rise development is permitted. Further strengthening this vision, the City Centre Neighbourhood Plan was adopted in April 2019, establishing more detailed policy guidance for a thriving urban core. The plan will guide large scale redevelopment to accommodate roughly 4,900 more housing units and 12,000 additional residents.

Urban Centres

The OCP identifies four Urban Centres – UDistrict, Historic Downtown, McCallum, and Clearbrook. While they are secondary to the City Centre in terms of scale and intensity of use (6 storey maximum height), they offer city wide appeal in addition to serving their surrounding neighbourhoods. Along with the City Centre, they anchor the Primary Transit Corridor. Historic Downtown (plan adopted April 2019) and UDistrict (plan adopted May 2018) in particular have a distinct character and function. They are community gathering places, places of employment, and rich with amenities and destinations.

Neighbourhood Centres

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Fourteen mixed use Neighbourhood Centres are identified within the OCP. They are secondary to Urban Centres in terms of scale and use (4 storey maximum height), and are intended to serve their surrounding neighbourhoods, with short, walkable trips to meet many of the daily needs of nearby residents. Taller and varied building heights may be possible through a neighbourhood plan. The WeTown proposal is located in a Neighbourhood Centre intended to serve the local needs of existing and future residents living within the New Neighbourhoods area (see Figure 1).

New Neighbourhoods

New Neighbourhoods are largely undeveloped or minimally developed areas envisioned for a new comprehensively planned neighbourhoods within the Urban Development Boundary. The McKee Neighbourhood Plan (NP), currently underway, is the planning process that will help transform the New Neighbourhoods area into a complete community with vibrant neighbourhoods that are integrated into the natural and mountainous landscape.

Due to policy within the OCP, during the NP process new rezoning proposals are not being considered until the Neighbourhood Plan is adopted. This policy is important as it will allow the City to comprehensively plan the area to ensure that the land use, open space, community amenities, street network and infrastructure work together seamlessly to build neighbourhoods that are complete and meet the vision of the neighbourhood within the growth objectives of the OCP.

Neighbourhood plans are used in key areas of the city where growth is expected and/or desired. It enables for a neighbourhood specific planning process and plan that is unique to the area and articulates the vision for the neighbourhood at a level of detail that isn’t reflected in the OCP. To date, Council has adopted three neighbourhood plans – City Centre, Historic Downtown and UDistrict.

DISCUSSION

1. WeTown Review

To provide a thorough and complete review of the proposal, staff engaged a consultant who was not involved in the creation of the OCP, and who has expertise in land use planning and economic analysis. It was important to find a consultant with expertise in both disciplines, as a considerable portion of the WeTown proposal details how the concept is viable from an economic perspective; this resulted in city staff engaging Eric Vance & Associates (“the consultant”).

The consultant’s report, entitled ‘Review of the WeTown Proposal’, is provided as Attachment B. The Planning Evaluation section below summarizes the review findings and includes key report excerpts. The consultant’s review is organized in relation to the following four major evaluation themes, as derived from key goals and policies of Council’s Strategic Plan and the OCP:

a. City of Centres b. Compact City c. Housing Options d. Economic Development 2. Planning Evaluation

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a. City of Centres

Abbotsford has been making significant gains towards fostering the development of unique centres within the city. This is highlighted by the adoption of the City Centre Neighbourhood Plan, Historic Downtown Neighbourhood Plan and UDistrict Neighbourhood Plan, and the significant growth and development interest taking place within these neighbourhoods. The consultant concludes that WeTown “would essentially be a second City Centre in Abbotsford seven miles (11 kilometers) from the existing City Centre, and rather than being centrally located it would be on the edge of the Urban Development Boundary, and would be isolated and would not serve a broader area beyond the Auguston Neighbourhood. WeTown would be projected to absorb almost half (48%) of all population growth in the City, and this would predominantly be at the expense of growth in the Urban Core.”

“The OCP population growth projected for Abbotsford was based on a set of assumptions that did not anticipate a development such as that envisioned at WeTown. Therefore, Abbotsford could grow faster than currently projected with WeTown added into the assumptions. This would mean that WeTown would absorb less than 48% of Abbotsford’s total population growth. However, there would still be a significant impact on the rate at which the Urban Core redevelops and grows. It is not reasonable to assume that most or all of the growth and development at WeTown would be above and beyond what happens elsewhere in the city.” b. Compact City

WeTown proposes a compact community with all land uses within an 800 metre radius (10- minute walk). This is the standard measure used in Metro Vancouver for higher density Transit Oriented Development (TOD) around Sky Train stations. “However, the City has no plans to provide rapid transit to the Auguston Neighbourhood, meaning WeTown would not be a TOD development.” WeTown would be a very compact community in relative isolation, but would lack the connectivity the City needs to achieve its goal of concentrating the majority of mixed use growth in the Urban Core as part of being a compact community.

WeTown also assumes that 82% of the housing units will be occupied by people working and studying on the site. It is questionable that such a percentage would choose to live on site given the narrow housing choice selection and the lack of rapid transit. There is no other urban centre, neighbourhood, or community in the Lower Mainland with such a high proportion; the City of Vancouver, for example, is the highest in the region at 68%.

The consultant’s report also highlights that WeTown’s projected traffic impacts and parking demand are based on a very aggressive set of Transportation Demand Management (TDM) measures being implemented, but the TDM measures proposed are typically associated with TOD planning areas served by rapid public transit. “For example the residential parking standard of 1.1 stalls per unit (resident and visitor) proposed for WeTown is less than that permitted in the core of Coquitlam’s City Centre, which is served by three rapid transit stations. The recently reduced residential parking requirement in this TOD area ranges from 1.2 stalls per unit for studio and one-bedroom to 1.55 stalls per unit for two-bedroom or more units. If the assumptions made in WeTown around live/work and TDM measures don’t play out as proposed, there could be considerably more external traffic and the need for more extensive road upgrades.”

Report No. PDS 082-2019 Page 8 of 15

Another key consideration is that the City has set its capital and operating plans around focusing growth and development in the urban core, where a wide range of public services can be delivered. With a forecast population of 28,800, providing services to WeTown would be comparable to delivering services to the City of Langley (27,600 residents). The capital and operating costs of delivering public amenities and services to WeTown would be considerable. “A significant share of the initial costs might be borne directly by the developer through mechanisms such as development cost charges and school site acquisition charges, but the ongoing operation, maintenance, asset replacement and other costs would be borne by the City and other public agencies. The WeTown proposal does not address the fiscal impacts of delivering and operating these amenities. The City has just completed its OCP update, along with a number of master plans, which together drive much of the City’s financial planning. WeTown would require reopening many of these plans, which would consume significant City resources.” c. Housing Options

WeTown proposes a narrow range of housing options focused on high density apartment development, with a relatively small unit size. WeTown has not provided a detailed demographic analysis, but the proposal does indicate that the assumed average number of persons per household (excluding student housing) is in the range of 2.4 - 2.7. This does not reconcile with the assumed average unit size of 800 sq. ft., which is relatively small, especially for families. By comparison, the current average number of person per household in Abbotsford is 1.7 for apartments, 2.5 for townhouses and 3.3 for single family homes. “A number of those working at WeTown may therefore choose to live elsewhere in the City and this would increase traffic impacts.”

The WeTown proposal does not provide a range of housing choices that the City of Abbotsford has previously encouraged, with almost all of its planned housing in apartment towers. “There is also a disconnect between the projected population and the assumed total residential floor space. Either the population projection is too high or the assumed residential floor space is too low, or possibly a combination of the two.” d. Economic Development

The consultant’s report indicates that the WeTown proposal aligns with Abbotsford’s economic development goals and the proposal strongly aligns with Abbotsford’s goal of becoming an innovation hub by:

 Planning for a significant amount of purpose-built office space for a wide range of large tech employers.  Planning space for start-ups and business incubators.  Possibly attracting a post-secondary school to physically locate on the site to collaborate with these employers.

The report also outlines WeTown’s potential impact on commercial development in the city. “The amount and type of commercial floor space projected for WeTown would generate significant job, property tax and other economic benefits for the City. At the same time, it may impact on commercial development elsewhere in Abbotsford, including City Centre.” The Abbotsford City Centre and Historic Downtown Market Study prepared for the City in 2017 noted:

Report No. PDS 082-2019 Page 9 of 15

“Although its retail sector is thriving, it is also highly generic and unspecialized, which leaves it vulnerable to competition for new space throughout the City.”

Outside of the WeTown proposal, the City of Abbotsford is projected to have about 108,000 jobs by 2040. WeTown’s projected 18,000 jobs would bring the total to 126,000, a 17% boost. However, as discussed above, some of the development that occurs at WeTown would be at the expense of development elsewhere in the city. The net employment impact would therefore be less, but still very significant.

3. Economic Viability a. Key Factors

The consultant concludes that one of the key findings identified in the review of WeTown’s Land Use Marketability Study (found within WeTown OCP Compatibility Study, September 2018) is that the “study does not conclude that WeTown, as envisioned, is an economically viable project, nor any of its land use components. Rather, the study notes that there are a number of factors that will influence the success of WeTown.” Within the report there are a number of examples that are quoted but one key example is as follows:

“The findings make clear that if the project is to proceed on the scale as envisioned, a critical mass of employment activity is a precondition. Indeed, without placing an emphasis on attracting catalyst or ‘accelerant’ tenants such as industry leading corporate offices, a post-secondary school, a research institution, and/or a business incubation facility, only a comparatively modest development program can be justified from the absorption of forecast growth.”

A key critical gap identified in the proposal at this point is the lack of any demonstrated interest in the WeTown concept by major hi-tech companies, research institutions, universities and others, as well as some indication of interest by senior levels of government in supporting the concept. The WeTown proposal acknowledges this, stating:

“For the complete vision to come to fruition, a willingness on the part of academic institutions and government must be present.”

Further acknowledgement by the consultant notes that “it is too early in the process to be expecting firm commitments from employers or institutions to locate at WeTown, but without at least some indication of actual interest from the market, the economic viability is highly speculative.” b. Development Potential

The WeTown proposal briefly touches on the ability for ATDI to physically locate the WeTown site in an environmentally sensitive area. The proposal suggests that 91.5 acres are developable, but the OCP indicates that the site is bisected by a number of watercourses that would require protection. Considerably more study is needed on this topic to determine how much of the site can be developed without adverse environmental impacts. If it is less than currently assumed, the development potential could be reduced.

Furthermore, a portion of the proposed development is located on Abbotsford School District No. 34 property. If the proponent was to pursue an application, they would be required to

Report No. PDS 082-2019 Page 10 of 15 purchase the School District property or receive authorization from them prior to submitting an application. c. Development Timeframe

The consultant’s report illustrates that the proposed 20-year build-out of the project is very ambitious. The report compares WeTown’s projected rate of development with Abbotsford’s actual rate of development over the previous 10 years, “At a projected rate of 625 units a year, WeTown alone would be creating more housing than has been added to all of Abbotsford annually (600 units) over the past decade.”

WeTown’s ambitious projections were compared with three master planned high density mixed- use communities, each owned by a single developer, centrally located in the region and in close proximity to rapid transit and other major transportation connections. They are as follows:

 Beedie Group’s proposed 92 acre Fraser Mills development in Southwest Coquitlam is close to Highway No. 1 and 3 km from the Braid Street rapid transit station. It’s planned to have about 5,000 apartment units, take 25 years to build out, and average 200 units annually.  Shape Properties’ 28 acre Brentwood Shopping Mall in North Burnaby is adjacent to the Lougheed Highway and integrated with the Brentwood Town Centre Skytrain station. It’s planned to have 6,000 apartment units, take 20 years to build-out and average 300 units annually.  Shape Properties’ 37 acre Lougheed Shopping Mall in Northeast Burnaby, is adjacent to the Lougheed Highway and the Lougheed Town Centre Skytrain station. It’s planned to have 10,000 apartment units, take 25 years to build out and average 400 units annually.

Based on this data, the consultant suggests it is likely that WeTown would have a much longer development timeframe than 20 years, if it were to proceed. For comparative analysis, if WeTown were to build-out at the same pace as the above mentioned comparable developments, the projected build-out for WeTown would be roughly as follows:

 200 units annually (Fraser Mills) – 63 years to build-out  300 units annually (Brentwood Shopping Mall) – 42 years to build-out  400 units annually (Lougheed Shopping Mall) – 31 years to build-out  625 units annually (WeTown) – 20 years to build-out (proposed) d. Risks

To conclude the economic viability component of the review, potential risks are detailed. “It cannot be concluded at this point that WeTown is an economically viable project or that it can be physically developed as envisioned. Allowing it to proceed without significantly more information, analysis and clearly demonstrated market demand at the scale envisioned presents a number of possible risks to Abbotsford.” The risks are as follows:

 Disruption of the local residential and commercial markets.

 Partly completed servicing infrastructure (e.g. roads, water and sewer) external or internal to WeTown that the City must complete at its cost to appropriately serve the needs of whatever portion of WeTown is developed.

Report No. PDS 082-2019 Page 11 of 15

 Residents of WeTown could be left without necessary on-site public amenities and other services (i.e. a less than complete community).

 Allocation of significant staff time and other City resources to the development review and approval process (OCP and zoning) and to updates to master plans for a project that either doesn’t proceed or stalls.

4. Planning and Economic Viability Conclusion

From an economic viability perspective, the consultant concludes that, “WeTown cannot at this point be considered an economically viable project based on the information provided, which carries with it a number of risks to the City of Abbotsford if it is started and not completed due to insufficient market demand or other factors.”

However, if the City wishes to further consider the WeTown proposal, the recommended next step will require ATDI to work with City staff to determine the developable area of the site. Auguston Town Developments Inc. will need to work with City staff to undertake detailed geotechnical, archaeological and environmental studies to determine the actual developable area of the site.

Depending Council’s interest in further exploring the WeTown proposal, the consultant recommends the following important considerations:

. Auguston Town Developments Inc. demonstrating:

 That there are specific post-secondary education and research institutes, large hi- tech companies, business incubators and other parties that may be potentially prepared to locate at WeTown and the conditions under which they would consider locating there.  That there is potential interest from senior levels of government in supporting the WeTown concept and the form that this support might take.

. Reconsideration of the amount and type of housing provided at WeTown, with the objective of providing a broader mix.

. Commissioning a peer review of the WeTown traffic impact study, including the reasonableness of the assumptions around TDM measures, parking demand, traffic volumes and the impact on external road systems.

. Commissioning a peer review of the WeTown servicing review, examining both onsite and offsite servicing for sanitary, water, and drainage systems.

. Examination of the public amenities that would be required at WeTown as the development proceeds. That includes active and passive park space, indoor recreation space, community centre space, public health, fire / ambulance, public schools, library and any other amenities potentially required. This will require the involvement of other agencies, such as the School District and Fraser Health.

. Undertaking a high level fiscal impact analysis that considers both the revenues that WeTown would generate (e.g., property taxes, DCCs) and the long-term municipal

Report No. PDS 082-2019 Page 12 of 15

capital and operating costs of supporting WeTown, which is not part of any of the City’s current financial and other plans.

“There would be considerable time, costs and resources required of the City to further explore the WeTown proposal and the actions listed above are simply the recommended next steps. They are not all the work that would be required and the results ultimately may not lead to a project that the City wishes to support. However, without significantly more information being provided, it cannot be determined at this point if there is a strong case for WeTown as proposed that should cause Abbotsford’s Strategic Plan and OCP to be revisited.”

5. McKee Neighbourhood Plan

The City is in the early stages of the McKee Neighbourhood Plan, which includes the subject site. Staff is seeking direction from Council whether the WeTown proposal should be considered through the neighbourhood planning process. Alternatively, Council may wish to direct staff to continue working towards implementing the vision of the Official Community Plan through the McKee Neighbourhood planning process.

Should Council wish to explore the WeTown proposal, a significant amount of information is needed to fully understand and consider the merits of it. The McKee Neighbourhood planning process will provide Council the opportunity to further review the proposal and obtain valuable insight from the community. The City’s neighbourhood planning approach is robust, and has proven through three successful neighbourhood planning processes that ideas and concepts can be vetted, and various options can be presented and discussed with the public. Through each stage of the plan, staff reports to Council to review the work which has taken place and to present a summary of feedback from the community. As the McKee NP is still in Stage 1, there is an opportunity to explore the WeTown proposal from the relative outset of the neighbourhood planning process. The following sections detail how the WeTown proposal could be integrated into the four-stage neighbourhood planning process.

Stage 1: Background Research

Stage 1 will analyze current conditions and better understand the necessary tools and priorities to create vibrant new neighbourhoods within the McKee NP. A key component of this stage will be to identify land that should be protected and land may be suitable for development. Detailed environmental, geotechnical and archaeological analysis have been undertaken in the plan area, and further analysis should be conducted with respect to the land proposed for WeTown. Depending on the outcome of this additional analysis, the land available could ultimately influence the form and scale of development.

Stage 2: Explore Options

Stage 2 will focus on exploring options and preparing a preferred concept. This will be done through a broad engagement process framed by various concepts. During this stage, the public and stakeholders will be given an opportunity to provide input on the concepts for the neighbourhood and the WeTown proposal specifically. Through this process, the WeTown proposal may be modified based on the Stage 2 findings. Within this stage a preliminary technical analysis of the infrastructure needs will be completed.

Stage 3: Draft Plan

Report No. PDS 082-2019 Page 13 of 15

Stage 3 will focus on preparing the first draft of the McKee Neighbourhood Plan using findings and direction from Stages 1 and 2. It will also include a technical analysis of the infrastructure requirements based on the preferred concept completed in Stage 2. Depending on the preferred concept from Stage 2, the infrastructure requirements to service WeTown and the neighbourhood may exceed the capacity planned in the current Master Plans, resulting in servicing implications within the plan area and beyond.

Stage 4: Final Plan

This stage will entail completing the neighbourhood plan through a bylaw adoption process. Depending on the final outcome of the McKee neighbourhood Plan, potential amendments may be required for the OCP, and updates to the Master Plans reflecting the requirements of the neighbourhood plan.

FINANCIAL PLAN IMPLICATION

Abbotsford’s Official Community Plan (OCP) approved in June 2016, provides a vision and a framework for how Abbotsford will grow to a population of 200,000. To support the development of a growing and thriving City, the City recently under the Plan 200K initiative completed its Master Planning process to lay the foundation of how to achieve that vision for a population of 200,000 people while identifying long term infrastructure investments worth over $1.9 billion over the next 25 years. Each Master Plan carefully prioritizes a road map of financial investments needed in the short, mid, and long terms for every infrastructure aspect. This road map identifies how to achieve each infrastructure project thereby creating the ability to effectively, responsibly and innovatively plan for the financial costs associated with them and leverage grant opportunities.

As a result of Plan 200K, the City is now developing a long term financial plan to develop a financial strategy to effectively prioritize and fund these infrastructure projects over the next 25 years. A long term financial plan, that is based on the financial best practices of being phaseable, affordable, resilient, sustainable, incremental, flexible and grantable, is currently being worked upon.

The City has a Development Cost Charge (DCC) Bylaw that sets out fees that are collected from developers to offset some of the infrastructure costs as a result of the new development. A major update to the current DCC Bylaw, to review and reflect the City’s present methodology and base rate structure that will ensure an adequate and equitable distribution of cost for the infrastructure required to support projected growth of the City, as outlined in the 2016 Official Community Plan (OCP), is currently underway.

The future infrastructure works that could result from this project are not included in any of the Master Plans, long term financial plan project and the DCC review. The general financial strategy for a project like this will be intended to assist in the orderly, predictable, and equitable development of the proposed neighborhood and is based on the principle that those creating additional demand and burden to the infrastructure pay for it. Generally development is required to provide and pay for the infrastructure needed to support their development, and the City does not finance, nor provide infrastructure required for development. If any of the infrastructure works identified as part of this project gets included in a future DCC bylaw, there may be opportunities for rebates and/or credits to be applied for the specific infrastructure works.

Report No. PDS 082-2019 Page 14 of 15

If Council wishes to further explore the WeTown proposal, additional staff resources will be required to review the proposal without interrupting staff resources allocated to other planned projects.

Rajat Sharma General Manager, Finance and Corporate Services Signed 9/20/2019 3:44 PM

IMPACTS ON COUNCIL POLICIES, STRATEGIC PLAN AND/OR COUNCIL DIRECTION

Given the scope of the WeTown proposal, it has the potential to have a significant impact on Council’s Strategic Plan, OCP, various Master Plans, Neighbourhood Plans, Financial Plan, and Operational Plans. Without more information being provided, it cannot be determined if there is a strong planning case for WeTown that should cause Council’s Strategic Plan and OCP to be revisited.

SUBSTANTIATION OF RECOMMENDATION

ATDI has put a significant amount of time and resources into preparing an ambitious development concept. Several of the conceptual underpinnings of the proposal align with city building practice, such as focusing growth in a mixed use community where people can live, work, play and study in one neighbourhood. While the OCP supports these planning and growth principles throughout the city, it is deliberate with regards to the scale of growth, development density, and geographic distribution set out in the coordinated hierarchy of ‘centres’. The WeTown concept aligns well will these principles, but not at the scale or function proposed for the location. The concept, in essence, creates a 2nd City Centre that is currently not connected to the primary transit corridor and in a location that would require significant city wide municipal infrastructure upgrades that are not planned for in the OCP or recently completed Master Plans.

Through a significant planning process, the OCP was updated in 2016. It paints a powerful picture of what Abbotsford will be like at 200,000 residents while setting the stage for future growth beyond the plan (25 years) within the urban structure of creating a “city of centres”. This is planned in concert with other aspects of growth management, such as infrastructure, transit and open space. Exploring such a large project outside what has been planned presents risks that need to be weighed carefully against the opportunities.

Exploring the WeTown proposal could tie the City to a long-term commitment on population, amenities, infrastructure and capital planning that may prolong planned growth in other parts of the city and impede other priorities of the City that may emerge.

If Council wishes to explore the WeTown proposal further, the McKee Neighbourhood planning process is the best opportunity to evaluate and discuss the merits of such a development. The City’s neighbourhood planning approach is robust, and through three successful neighbourhood planning processes has proven that ideas and concepts can be vetted, and various options can be presented and discussed with the public. Through each stage of the plan, staff reports to Council to review the work which has taken place and to present a summary of feedback from the community. As the McKee NP is still in Stage 1, there is an opportunity to explore the WeTown proposal from the relative outset of the neighbourhood planning process.

Report No. PDS 082-2019 Page 15 of 15

Mitchell Comb Mark Neill Senior Planner Acting GM, Planning and Development Services Signed 9/19/2019 1:54 PM Signed 9/20/2019 1:07 PM

Siri Bertelsen General Manager, Planning and Development Services Signed 9/23/2019 12:34 PM

ATTACHMENTS: Attachment A - WeTown, OCP Compatibility Study, 2018 Attachment B - Review of the WeTown Proposal

WeTown

OCP Compatibility Study | September 2018

Executive Summary

B | Auguston Town Development Inc. (ATDI) is exploring opportunities to develop a mixed use hi-tech oriented community in the Auguston area of the City of Abbotsford. The development intends to fill an important gap in British Columbia, introducing a world class hi-tech hub that will stimulate the economy. WeTown will offer residential and employment opportunities for residents of Abbotsford that reflect current and projected trends, attracting highly skilled hi-tech employees from around the world.

To assess the feasibility of the proposed development, ATDI retained a team consisting of Architects (Avoid Obvious Architects), Urban and Regional Planners (O2 Planning + Design), Land Economists (Urbanics Consultants Ltd), Transportation Engineers (Bunt & Associates Engineering Ltd), Civil Engineers (Wedler Engineering LLP), and Environmental Consultants (Envirowest). The Report that follows is the result of this work.

The WeTown development concept is founded upon creating a regional hi-tech hub in the heart of the Fraser Valley that will generate significant population and economic growth for the region. Importantly, the objectives are to do so in a way that complements the City of Abbotsford’s Official Community Plan and its commitment to developing a City of Mixed Use Centres, as well as to help the City grow into a smart city. This will be achieved by creating a self-contained mixed-use community at WeTown that is a model of sustainable development.

This report highlights the vision for WeTown as it relates to land use marketability, mobility, drainage and stormwater servicing, environmental considerations, and compatibility with the Official Community Plan, each of which is summarized below.

Land Use Marketability • Economies around the world are shifting towards knowledge-based activities, referred to by the World Economic Forum as the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

• British Columbia presently hosts a technology sector constituting 7% of provincial GDP, and primarily characterized by service activities. In 2016, the tech sector in BC experienced 9.2% revenue growth, 4.1% employment growth, and 3.5% in sector GDP growth. Those employees working in the sector earn 85% more than the provincial average.

• BC’s tech sector is the 3rd largest in Canada and is an order of magnitude smaller (on a per capita basis) than in the neighbouring jurisdictions of Washington State and Oregon.

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | C • WeTown aims to be the major Hi-Tech Hub in BC and help build up the hi-tech industry in Abbotsford. The programming of WeTown is designed to build on the current strengths of BC’s high-tech sector, while facilitating an investment in innovation capacity. Employment space purpose-built for large tech employers will form the overwhelming majority of office space at WeTown. It is anticipated that the opportunity to locate to purpose-built space situated in a picturesque community with abundant housing – while still within a large metro area– will prove attractive to large multinational tech firms, and will therefore result in BC attracting large tech operations at a higher rate than in the absence of WeTown. In turn, being home to a higher proportion of large firms will result in more competitive rates of innovation. Similarly, WeTown provides an opportunity for the creation of institutions that will vastly enhance BC’s innovation capacity. The size of the site renders it possible to build space for virtually any desired size of research institution and/or university. Additionally, co-location with major high-tech firms should help spur a virtuous circle of collaboration, partnerships, and innovation.

• WeTown is also uniquely positioned to be a major regional/national facilitator of the types of academic-private collaboration critical to delivering on the promise of the tomorrow’s economic growth. In providing space for research, academic, incubation, and large-scale office uses on the same site, WeTown presents a clean-slate opportunity to construct an environment designed to facilitate the integrated approach necessary for Abbotsford and BC to take positions as economic leaders in the short, medium, and long terms. For the complete vision to come to fruition, a willingness on the part of academic institutions and governments must be present. In any event, the opportunity to host a concentration of homegrown and multinational high-tech firms will itself constitute a major step forward in the region’s economic competitiveness.

• In order for the vision of WeTown to be realized, a critical mass of employment activity is a precondition. This will be achieved by attracting catalyst or ‘accelerant’ tenants such as industry- leading corporate offices, a post-secondary school, a research institution, and/or a business incubation facility to located at WeTown.

• If this condition is met and a marketing plan is successfully executed, WeTown at full-build out has the potential to host upwards of 18,000 jobs, 28,800 residents, and a total of 15,500,000 sq. ft. of space across all uses.

D | • The City of Abbotsford’s Official Community Plan (OCP) is premised on reaching a population of 200,000 people, and expects that a medium growth scenario will result in the figure being reached by 2040. This represents growth of an additional 60,000 residents over present, compared with the BC stats estimate of about 37,000. The OCP also establishes a principle that growth should occur in a manner that maintains or raises the proportion of Abbotsford residents employed within the city – a pattern much harder to attain in light of the Agricultural Land Commission’s decision to deny the conversion of 497 acres of Agricultural Land Reserve lands to industrial use, which generally support a much greater density of jobs than agriculture. As one of the largest non-ALR undeveloped parcels of land in Abbotsford, concentrating employment space at WeTown would be a means to ensure the balance of residents to jobs is maintained or enhanced, especially if the growth scenario of 60,000 new residents by 2040 is seen as desirable.

• WeTown will not only establish a critical mass of hi-tech economic activities, offering the potential to substantially raise BC’s innovation standing and the scale of its technology sector, but also diversifying Abbotsford’s job base, thus ensuring that the 200,000 population target set in the OCP will be achieved as planned.

• Built with smart infrastructure, including information communication technologies (ICT) infrastructure and internet of things (IoT), WeTown will be a showcase of what an intelligent community is and is poised to help the City of Abbotsford grow into a smart city.

Mobility • WeTown is located approximately 15 minutes by car from Abbotsford’s City Centre. Major routes to and from WeTown will be along McKee and Sumas Mountain Roads, Whatcom Road, Dawson/ Straiton Road and Lower Sumas Road.

• Bus route #15 runs between the Auguston neighbourhood and Downtown Abbotsford. It is currently the only bus route that directly serves the proposed WeTown location. Route 15 offers limited service between approximately 7am and 7pm, with a peak hour service headway of 40 minutes. Weekend service is less frequent with a headway of 2 hours.

• The WeTown area has limited pedestrian accessibility as most of the nearby roads were originally designed for vehicular movements. The elevation change on Sumas Mountain also limits walkability.

• Better pedestrian and cycling infrastructure should be planned around the major routes to encourage the promotion of walking and cycling.

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | E • One of the key design objectives for WeTown is to reduce the community’s reliance on the private automobile. This will be achieved through a combination of Transportation Demand Management (TDM) initiatives, starting with a compact, highly walkable land use pattern.

• Additional TDM measures will include the introduction of a protected bike path along McKee Road through the site, which will connect with the existing section at Whatcom Road. This is consistent with the proposed long-term bicycle network outlined in the City’s Transportation and Transit Master Plan.

• Bicycle storage facilities will be provided throughout the community, in addition to end of trip facilities (including showers, lockers, and change areas) throughout buildings with employment uses. A public shared electric bicycle program will also be considered as part of WeTown’s TDM strategy.

• Given the future population growth and shifts in transportation mode share, a direct transit connection between WeTown and Abbotsford as well as to the region should be planned with a peak hour frequency of approximately 8 minutes. A local community shuttle service at WeTown will provide frequent circulation throughout employment and residential hubs throughout the site.

• Car-sharing vehicles will be located in publicly accessible and visible locations, either on-street or in communal off-street parking locations within the commercial area. As well, vehicles would be located in pods, with two or more vehicles in each pod together with appropriate signage to deter ‘illegal’ parking. Where possible, they will located close to transit stops, taxi pick-up points, bike storage facilities, etc. to create an identifiable multi-modal transportation focal point.

• The introduction of car-share vehicles will be phased with the residential build-out. The first vehicle will be provided once the first unit is occupied, with one additional vehicle added thereafter for every 180 occupied units.

• The development of WeTown will result in the need for improvements to McKee Road and Whatcom Road. McKee Road will require widening from two lanes to four lanes between Ledgeview Drive and Sumas Mountain Road. Whatcom Road will require widening from two lanes to four lanes between McKee Road and Sandringham Drive. These improvements will be required when WeTown is nearing 50% build out and can be funded using the developments DCC contributions.

F | Drainage & Stormwater

Water Servicing • In an effort to further reduce the impact on the City infrastructure, a full grey water recycling system is proposed for WeTown. This will reduce Net Average Daily Demand from 300 litres per capita per day (lpcd) to 220 lpcd.

• Based on the projected population increase to approximately 30,000, the net average demand would be approximately 77 lps.

• The ultimate fire flow demand will be based on either the Fire Underwriters’ Survey (FUS) guideline calculations or minimum fire flow requirements, whichever is greater.

• It is possible that some of the works identified in the 200k City Water Master Plan may be required earlier than planned in order to accommodate the WeTown development.

Sanitary Servicing • Using the reduced design criteria, average dry weather flow (ADWF), peak dry weather flow (PDWF), and peak wet weather flow (PWWF) for WeTown are 87 lps, 226 lps, and 231 lps, respectively. Flows of this magnitude would still be expected to have a considerable impact on the existing downstream sewer system.

• By utilizing a grey water recycling system, the design sanitary flows can be further reduced by approximately 190 lpcd. The resulting design flows would be 21 lps (ADWF), 55 lps (PDWF), and 60 lps (PWWF).

• We expect hydraulic analysis of the Straiton sanitary sewer trunk main will be required. It is possible that some of the works identified in the 200k City Wastewater Master Plan may be required earlier than planned in order to accommodate the WeTown development.

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | G Storm water Management • By utilizing global best practices for green buildings, such as green roofs and balconies, and maximizing green space within the development, the WeTown development has greatly reduced the storm water detention volumes typically seen in development of similar population. The run-off coefficient for the site is calculated to be less than 0.50, which is a number typically associated with larger single family developments.

• Two large onsite ponds, of approximately 10,000m2 each, feature as part of the site amenities while also providing detention storage and helping to sustain base flows in Clayburn Creek during extended dry periods.

• Based on the 48 Ha development footprint, and a run off coefficient of 0.5, the 1:10 year detention volume is approximately 10,000m3, based on current City bylaws. This detention can be provided by the onsite ponds, with an active storage depth of 0.5m for each pond.

• To supplement the detention requirements, best practices for storm water management will be incorporated into the design with onsite rain gardens, absorbent soils in landscape areas, and infiltration opportunities.

• In addition to providing stormwater detention requirements, the two large ponds can be used for rain harvesting as storage facilities. The treated grey water may also be directed to the ponds for equalization, storage, and overflow. By using the ponds in these ways, the stored water may be used to satisfy the irrigation demands for the site.

Environmental Considerations • The proposed development concept for WeTown involves development within portions of the Auguston lands that are affected by environmental features. Therefore, the WeTown development is advised not to build on areas with the most sensitive ecosystems and to avoid (or crossing over top of) the higher value habitat features such as streams.

• Detailed ground-level investigations are required to accurately delineate ecological features and document the plant and animal resources they support. Once this exercise is completed the proposed WeTown development application will follow the Natural Environmental Development Permit Guidelines and provide the City with the environmental data, including impact mitigation and (to the extent deemed necessary) habitat compensation plans.

H | • The proposed WeTown development is expected to recognize and address environmental sensitivities associated with the existing natural environment such that there is No-Net-Loss of critical habitats. The proposed development will be more than 50 percent open space and is also expected to reflect state-of-the-art environmental standards for building design, energy reduction, water use and air quality. Development footprints would be minimized through the use of elevated structures, emphasis on vertical design, and implementation of the latest standards for rainwater management.

Compatibility with the Ofﬁcial Community Plan • A compatibility study was undertaken to determine the degree to which the WeTown development concept aligns with the aspirations outlined in the OCP. The findings of this exercise suggest that the development of WeTown will help achieve many of the key aspirations highlighted in the OCP.

• While the OCP aims to direct the majority of anticipated growth towards the City Centre and Urban Centres, there is not enough available land in these areas to accommodate the major hi-tech hub that BC needs. Successful technology hubs tend to be located in campus environments, outside of the downtown core.

• The growth generated by WeTown will be above and beyond that which is anticipated in the OCP. WeTown will not develop at the expense of other parts of Abbotsford. Rather, other areas will benefit by the growth generated by WeTown.

• While the proposed development of WeTown is located 6 kilometres from the City Centre, it will nonetheless contribute vibrancy to downtown in the form of tourists, business travelers and new residents.

• To facilitate the development of WeTown in such a way that is capable of capturing the hi-tech sector’s potential, a new Mixed Use Hi-Tech Centre designation is required. The proposed designation will permit variable building heights, with some exceeding those permitted elsewhere in Abbotsford. The proposed density for the site is between 2.5 and 4.0 FSR.

• Parks, Recreation and Culture amenities offered at WeTown will serve both the immediate community and neighbouring areas. East Abbotsford, highlighted in the Parks, Recreation and Culture Master Plan as being in need of additional amenities, will greatly benefit from the development of WeTown.

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | I • By drawing on highly skilled hi-tech sector employees from around the world, Abbotsford will see its cultural diversity increase and its cross-culural awareness improve as a result.

• Upon the completion of WeTown, Abbotsford will be home to a community that showcases the very best in sustainability. From the techniques adopted throughout the construction phases to the practices employed post-occupancy, WeTown will become a model of sustainable development.

• To maintain an efficient use of land while providing the space required for hi-tech sector enterprises, WeTown will require building heights that will result in a lasting visual impression from elsewhere in Abbotsford. This will be mitigated through the use of innovative planning and design and will become celebrated as an iconic landmark for the City, the region, and beyond.

• As a centre for research and innovation, WeTown has placed Abbotsford’s agricultural roots at the forefront of the vision for the area. Facilities incorporated into the community will provide spaces for entrepreneurs and experienced farmers to innovate and help carry Abbotsford’s agricultural traditions into the future.

• WeTown embodies the 6 critical success factors of an intelligent community as advocated by the Intelligent Community Forum, namely 1) Broadband; 2) Knowledge Workforce; 3) Innovation; 4) Digital Equality; 5) Sustainability; and 6) Advocacy. Built with smart infrastructure, WeTown will be a showcase of what an intelligent community is and is poised to help the City of Abbotsford grow into a smart city.

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J | WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | K Executive Summary B

1 WeTown Proposal 2

1.1 WeTown Hi-Tech Development Concept 3 1.1.1 Concept 3 1.1.2 Guiding Principles 5 1.1.3 Land Use 6 1.1.4 Density 6 1.1.5 Employment 6 1.1.6 Residential 6 1.1.7 Architecture 7 1.1.8 Agriculture 7 1.1.9 Sustainability 7 1.1.10 Intelligent Community 7

2 Economic Feasibility 10

2.1 Land Use Marketability Study 11 2.1.1 BC & The Fourth Industrial Revolution 11 2.1.2 Economic Indicator Overview 12 2.1.3 Abbotsford Population Growth 12 2.1.4 Land Use Base Case 12 2.1.5 WeTown’s Role in Enhancing Economic Competitiveness 13 2.1.6 WeTown as BC’s New Hi-Tech Hub 13 2.1.7 Employment & Accelerant Uses 13 2.1.6 Land Use Forecasts 14 2.1.6 Marketing & Implementation 15

3 Mobility 16

3.1 WeTown Transportation Considerations 17

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | i 4 Drainage & Stormwater Study 22

4.1 WeTown Conceptual Servicing Review 23 4.1.1 Water Servicing 23 4.1.2 Sanitary Servicing 25

5 Environmental Study 28

5.1 WeTown’s Environmental Study 29

6 Compatibility with the Ofﬁcial Community Plan 32

6.1 Abbotsford’s Ofﬁcial Community Plan 33 6.1.1 Abbotsforward 33 6.1.2 Vision 33 6.1.3 Aspirations 34 6.1.4 Compatibility 35 6.2 Urban Structure & Growth 43 6.2.1 Policy 44 6.2.2 Key Areas of Alignment 44 6.2.3 Challenges 45 6.3 Land Use 47 6.3.1 Policy 47 6.3.2 Key Areas of Alignment 48 6.3.3 Challenges 48 6.4 Establish Complete & Distinct Communities 52 6.4.1 Policy 52 6.4.2 Key Areas of Alignment 53 6.4.3 Challenges 53 6.5 Make Walking, Biking & Transit Delightful 55 6.5.1 Policy 55 6.5.2 Key Areas of Alignment 57 6.5.3 Challenges 58 6.6 Parks, Recreation & Culture 60 6.6.1 Policy 60 6.6.2 Key Areas of Alignment 61 6.7 Community Development 63 6.7.1 Policy 63 6.7.2 Key Areas of Alignment 64

ii | 6.8 Economy & Employment 66 6.8.1 Policy 66 6.8.2 Key Areas of Alignment 67 6.8.3 Challenges 68 6.9 Improve Natural & Built Systems 71 6.9.1 Policy 71 6.9.2 Key Areas of Alignment 72 6.9.3 Challenges 73 6.10 Enhance Agricultural Integrity 76 6.10.1 Policy 76 6.10.2 Key Areas of Alignment 77

7 Conclusion 79

Appendix A - Land Use Marketability Study 84

Appendix B - WeTown Transportation Considerations 197

Appendix C - Servicing Sample Calculations 227

Appendix D - Conceptual Storm Water Management Plan 234

Appendix E - BC Ministry of Health Grey Water Re-Use Report 236

Appendix F - City of Guelph Residential Grey Water Report 241

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | iii

1 WeTown Proposal 1.1 WeTown Hi-Tech Development Concept

WeTown is a leading-edge development concept that aims to capitalize on the growing hi-tech sector HMPCBMUSFOETto foster sustainable development, innovation and vibrancy in the City of Abbotsford.

1.1.1 Concept The WeTown site is located within the Auguston neighbourhood, located in north-east Abbotsford within the McKee Peak community, on the western slope of Sumas Mountain. Auguston is an approximately 6km drive from downtown Abbotsford. The entire Auguston neighbourhood is approximately 590 acres. The WeTown site area comprises approximately 140 acres. Please refer to Figure 1 for a context map of the site area.

Auguston

WeTown

Figure 1: Site Context Map

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 3 The majority of the WeTown property is located south of McKee Road, with approximately 20 acres located on the north side of McKee Road. Please refer to Figure 2, which provides a general outline of the WeTown site area. Preliminary calculations indicate that WeTown’s developable area is approximately 91.5 acres.

Figure 2: WeTown Concept Map

4 | 1.1.2 Guiding Principles WeTown is founded upon the following guiding principles:

Create a new regional Hi-Tech Hub WeTown intends to become the much needed new hi-tech centre in the heart of the Fraser Valley, generating significant population and economic growth for the region. WeTown will help the City grow into a smart city.

Develop a self-contained, mixed-use community WeTown will be an entirely self-contained and mixed-use community that complements Abbotsford’s other Mixed Use Centres.

Bring additional vibrancy to downtown Abbotsford The growth generated by WeTown will contribute to a more vibrant downtown core. WeTown will attract new residents who enjoy urban living and many will choose to live downtown. This, along with increased tourism visits resulting from WeTown, will benefit downtown businesses and contribute to a vibrant public realm.

Capitalize on employment and housing trends With a focus on attracting millennials, WeTown intends to capitalize on employment and housing trends. Millennials are drawn towards hi-tech sector jobs and compact, urban living. With a lack of this in Abbotsford, WeTown will fill this gap.

Emphasize sustainability WeTown is committed to best practices in sustainability. Features such as green roofs and balconies, passive design, state-of-the-art water conservation, and the use of local materials will ensure that this commitment is reflected throughout the development.

Focus on work-life balance and quality of life A central focus at WeTown is enabling residents to work hard and play hard. Natural areas, trails, parks, recreation and cultural amenities, in addition to the community’s idyllic setting, will provide residents with a fantastic quality of life.

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 5 beyond 23 storeys. Doing so will allow WeTown to 1.1.3 Land Use provide a significant contribution to Abbotsford’s To achieve the vision outlined above, a land use housing and employment stock, while not strategy is being developed that will facilitate sacrificing more green space and natural areas WeTown becoming a self-contained community than necessary as well as preserving the that contributes to Abbotsford’s City of Centres Agriculture Land Reserve lands. objective. To this end, WeTown requires that the City of Abbotsford amend the existing Official Community Plan to incorporate a new Mixed Use 1.1.5 Employment Hi-Tech Centre designation. This new designation The City of Abbotsdord’s vision includes a diverse will: economy and employment base with an emphasis • Enable a mix of multi-residential and on existing strengths including the University of commercial uses that offer city-wide appeal the Fraser Valley, the airport, the hospital, and the while serving surrounding neighbourhoods agricultural sector. WeTown anticipates providing • Serve as the City’s primary hub for hi-tech 18,000 additional jobs, within the City, 15,000 of employment, education and worker which will be in new hi-tech related industries. accommodation These new jobs will serve to further diversify the • Serve a City wide or neighbourhood area economy while supporting Abbotsford’s existing • Include a mix of retail and/or office space on industries by attracting high-end talent from lower floors and residential units on upper around the world. This will position Abbotsford as floors or a mix of retail/commercial on the an international destination, and provide space for lower floors and offices on upper floors research and innovation not currently available • Provide for various building typologies elsewhere in the City. including low, medium, and high rises • Allow for a range of uses including multi-unit residential, office, retail, and institutional 1.1.6 Residential • Complement the evolving City Centre At full build out, WeTown is anticipated to accommodate approximately 30,000 new residents in more than ,0 new residential 1.1.4 Density units. These people will have a range of housing The WeTown concept will satisfy the City of options to choose from, including approximately 2 Abbosford’s Compact City objective by providing million square feet of affordable rental and a level of density and intensity of use that has not ownership opportunities. Housing at WeTown will been achieved elsewhere in Abbotsford. This will be predominantly multi-residential, reflecting require the City of Abbotsford to amend the OCP current housing trends. For instance, in 2017, and support new zoning regulations that permit 69% of new housing starts in Abbotsford were density in excess of 2.5 FSR and building heights apartments.

6 | ultimately up to the development industry to 1.1.7 Architecture ensure these targets are met. WeTown intends to To position Abbotsford as a City of international be a model for sustainable development and lead significance, the architectural approach at the way in Abbotsford’s transition to sustainability. WeTown is iconic. The community will be home to the most exemplary buildings in the City and will 1.1.10 Intelligent Community employ cutting edge approaches to design and WeTown embodies the 6 critical success factors of sustainability. This will be a community that all an intelligent community as advocated by the residents of Abbotsford can be proud of, and that Intelligent Community Forum, namely: people from around the world will come to visit. 1. Broadband: As an essential new utility, high quality broadband will be available 24/7 to 1.1.8 Agriculture residents of WeTown. Abbotsford is a community with deep agricultural roots. While WeTown’s vision is to help carry 2. Knowledge Workforce: As a hi-tech hub, Abbotsford towards a prosperous future, the WeTown will be home to a knowledge intention is to do so while remaining focused on workforce with a hi-tech bent. As the home of the industry that forms a vital part of the City’s a research institute, a post-secondary school, character and a longstanding pillar of its economy. an incubator as well as K-12 school(s), Indeed, WeTown will be the catalyst that ensures WeTown will continue to nurture its residents the City’s agricultural traditions are preserved from pre-school education to post-school while guiding its transition towards an innovative employment so a sustainable knowledge and sustainable future. For example, new on-site workforce can be maintained. farming methods such as hydroponics, aeroponics, etc. will reduce transportation 3. Innovation: Built as a hi-tech hub, WeTown requirements. provides space for research, academic, incubation and large-scale uses so as to facilitate the creation of an innovation 1.1.9 Sustainability ecosystem that will contribute to economic The City of Abbotsford has integrated growth and enhance BC’s economic sustainability throughout the Official Community competitiveness. Plan, recognizing that managing land use and urban growth are critical. Auguston Town 4. Digital Equality: WeTown strives to provide all Development Inc. shares this same objective. The its residents with access to broadband development at WeTown considers sustainability technologies and the training to use them. at every opportunity and is committed to helping Community programs to recycle used the City achieve the Greenhouse Gas Emissions computers, laptops and tablets for those in targets outlined in the OCP. While the OCP need will be implemented. In addition, training establishes targets related to GHG emissions, it is programs will be implemented to help those in need to acquire literacy in keyboarding, PC literacy and web surfing.

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 7 5. Sustainability: The development of WeTown •• %FWFMPQB/FUXPSLPG4VTUBJOBCMF$PNNVOJUJFT considers sustainability at every opportunity 5IFIJUFDIGPDVTBU8F5PXOXJMMQSPWJEFBO from cleaner air and water to improved FOWJSPONFOUJOXIJDIUIFNPTUQSFTTJOH mobility and greater livability. TVTUBJOBCJMJUZDIBMMFOHFTDBOCFBEESFTTFEBU 8F5PXO WBVMUJOHUIF'SBTFS7BMMFZJOUPB 6. Advocacy: As a hotbed of innovation, WeTown MFBEJOHSFHJPOGPSTVTUBJOBCMFEFWFMPQNFOU will embrace change and innovation as the norm and its residents will be the best 1SPUFDUUIF/BUVSBM&OWJSPONFOU1SPNPUF &OWJSPONFOUBM4UFXBSETIJQ advocate that change could be good for personal development and economic growth. "5%*IBTBMSFBEZSFUBJOFEUIFTFSWJDFTPGBO WeTown will be the best place to live, work, FOWJSPONFOUBMDPOTVMUBOUUPFOTVSFUIBUSJHIU play, visit and start a business. GSPNUIFPVUTFUUIFQSPQPTFEEFWFMPQNFOU XJMMSFTQFDUUIFOBUVSBMFOWJSPONFOU Built with smart infrastructure, WeTown will showcase what an intelligent community can be 1SPUFDUBOE.BOBHF3VSBM3FDSFBUJPOBM-BOET and is poised to help the City become “Smart” 8F5PXOXJMMIFMQFOTVSFUIBU"CCPUTGPSE Abbotsford. DBOHSPXCFZPOEDVSSFOUQSPKFDUJPOT XJUIPVUFYUFOEJOHUIF6SCBO%FWFMPQNFOU #PVOEBSZ"TBSFTVMU WBMVBCMF"-3MBOET 1.1. 3FHJPOBM(SPXUI4USBUFHZ SFDSFBUJPOBMTJUFT BOESVSBMBSFBTDBOCF SFUBJOFE 8F5PXOJTQSPVEUPSFGMFDUBMM(SPXUI "DIJFWF4VTUBJOBCMF&DPOPNJD(SPXUI .BOBHFNFOU(PBMTFTUBCMJTIFEJOUIF'SBTFS 7BMMFZ3FHJPOBM%JTUSJDUhT3FHJPOBM(SPXUI 5IF OFXKPCTUIBU8F5PXOJTQPJTFE 4USBUFHZ 3(4 5IFTFBSF UPDSFBUFXJMMQSPWJEF"CCPUTGPSEXJUI FNQMPZNFOUTUBCJMJUZ*NQPSUBOUMZ KPCT • ••• *ODSFBTF5SBOTQPSUBUJPO$IPJDF&GGJDJFODZ DSFBUFEBU8F5PXOXJMMCFJOIJHIQBZJOH /PUPOMZXJMM8F5PXODBUFSUPBWBSJFUZPG JOEVTUSJFT XIJDIJTDSJUJDBMJOMJHIUPGPOHPJOH TVTUBJOBCMFUSBOTQPSUBUJPOPQUJPOTXJUIJOUIF BGGPSEBCJMJUZDIBMMFOHFTJO#$ DPNNVOJUZ JUXJMMBMTPKVTUJGZJOWFTUNFOUTJO QVCMJDUSBOTQPSUBUJPOGPSFBTU"CCPUTGPSE .BOBHF8BUFS &OFSHZ3FTPVSDFT8BTUF 3FTQPOTJCMZ • ••• 4VQQPSU&OIBODFUIF"HSJDVMUVSBM4FDUPS 5IFEFWFMPQNFOUDPODFQUIBTCFFODSFBUFE "UUIFWFSZDPSFPG8F5PXOJTBDPNNJUNFOUUP XJUITUBUFPGBSUXBUFSBOEXBTUF "CCPUTGPSEhTBHSJDVMUVSBMIJTUPSZ8F5PXOXJMM NBOBHFNFOUQSBDUJDFT"EEJUJPOBMMZ HSFFO IFMQFOTVSFUIBUUIFBHSJDVMUVSBMTFDUPSSFNBJOB CVJMEJOHQSBDUJDFT JODMVEJOHBDPNNJUNFOU WJUBMQBSUPG"CCPUTGPSEhTFDPOPNZBOEJEFOUJUZ UPCVJMEJOHUP-&&%TUBOEBSET XJMMBMMPXGPS • ••• .BOBHF6SCBO-BOE3FTQPOTJCMZ•• TVTUBJOCMFVTFPGFOFSHZSFTPVSDFT 5IFMBOEB•• • •• • • ••• • •• •• ••• • • • • • •• • • ••• • ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• • • • • ••• •• •• • • • • • •• ••••• • • • •• ••• • ••• • • • •• •• •• •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• •••••••• •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• • • • • •• ••• • •• ••• • • ••• • •• • • •• • ••• • •• •• • • •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• • • • • •• • • • • ••• • • • • • •• ••••••••••••••••••••••

8 | WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 9 2 Economic Feasibility

10 | 2.1 Land Use Marketability Study

Urbanics Consultants Ltd. has been retained to conduct a land use marketability study for the proposed WeTown development. A summary of ﬁndings is provided below, with the full report provided in Appendix A.

2.1.1 BC & The Fourth Industrial Revolution Globally and locally, economies are undertaking a rapid shift towards knowledge-based activities of an increasingly advanced nature. The World Economic Forum has characterized this as a “Fourth Industrial Revolution”, and observed that its evolution resembles exponential growth more closely than linear growth. The Fourth Industrial Revolution is characterized by the integration of digital, physical, and biological systems into a series of applications that promise to deliver dramatic productivity and gains in living standards.

Although there is significant upside potential, there is also the risk of a region failing to position itself as a centre of production during the emergence of new economic activities. Through attracting large employers and world-class research work, WeTown aims to establish a critical mass of hi-tech economic activities, of a scale that will establish the Fraser Valley region as a prosperous and globally relevant centre for the types of activities prevalent in the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

British Columbia presently hosts a technology sector constituting 7% of provincial GDP, and primarily characterized by service activities. All signs point to continued tech sector growth, with 9.2% revenue growth, 4.1% employment growth, and 3.5% in sector GDP growth in 2016. Technology sector employees earn 85% more than the provincial average. However, for perspective purposes it is important to note that BC’s tech sector remains the 3rd largest in Canada, and is an order of magnitude smaller (on a per capita basis) than in the neighbouring jurisdictions of Washington State and Oregon.

In May 2018, BC received a “D-” grade (lowest possible) in a ranking of OECD jurisdictions by innovation performance, with a lack of large firms and researchers per capita cited among other factors. In providing purpose-built space for large format employment, educational, and research uses, the WeTown proposal has the potential to substantially raise BC’s innovation standing and the scale of its technology sector.

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 11 2.1.2 Economic Indicator Overview After experiencing spectacular growth throughout 2016 and 2017, BC’s economic outlook remains positive, though unlikely to maintain the same high growth rate. Economists are expecting real GDP growth of 2.4% in 2018 and 1.9% in 2019 as the real estate sector cools and the economy is constrained by operating at full employment, combined with uncertainty generated by the United States. However, output and population growth are expected to continue into the foreseeable future, implying a favorable climate for residential and commercial real estate development.

Abbotsford’s economic indicators are also generally positive, with 2.5% GDP growth anticipated for 2018 as export demand remains strong. Conservative estimates of annual growth rates over a medium- term time horizon are 0.96% for population (BC Stats) and 1.12% for employment. Abbotsford’s economy is characterized relative to the region as having a higher share of employment concentrated in manufacturing and agriculture, but a lower share in technology and professional services. Uncertainty created by local policy changes often poses a risk to local growth and investment climate status, however Abbotsford has a long track record of electing officials in favor of economic development.

2.1.3 Abbotsford Population Growth Abbotsford’s OCP is premised on reaching a population of 200,000 people, and expects that a medium growth scenario will result in the figure being reached by 2040. This represents growth of an additional 60,000 residents over present, compared with the BC Stats estimate of ~37,000. The OCP also established a principle that growth should occur in a manner that maintains or raises the proportion of Abbotsford residents employed within the city - a pattern much harder attain in light of the Agricultural Land Commissions’ decision to deny the conversion of 497ac of ALR lands to industrial use, which generally support a much greater density of jobs than agriculture. As one of the largest non-ALR undeveloped parcels of land in Abbotsford, concentrating employment space at WeTown would be a means to ensure the balance of residents to jobs is maintained or enhanced, especially if the growth scenario of 60,000 new residents by 2040 is seen as desirable.

2.1.4 Land Use Base Case Based on BC Stats’ most recent population forecasts and baseline employment forecasts, Urbanics derived base case residential and office space absorption estimates for the WeTown site. The findings make clear that if the project is to proceed on the scale as envisioned, a critical mass of employment activity is a precondition. This is achieved by attracting catalyst or ‘accelerant’ tenants such as

12 | industry-leading corporate offices, a post-secondary school, a research institution, and/or a business incubation facility to locate at WeTown. If this condition is met and a marketing plan is successfully executed, WeTown at full-build out has the potential to host upwards of 18,000 jobs, 28,800 residents, and a total of 15,500,000 sq. ft. of space across all uses.

2.1.5 WeTown’s Role in Enhancing Economic Competitiveness WeTown is uniquely positioned to be a major regional/national facilitator of the types of academic- private collaboration critical to delivering on the promise of tomorrow’s economic growth. In providing space for research, academic, incubation, and large-scale office uses on the same site, WeTown presents a clean-slate opportunity to construct an environment designed to facilitate the integrated approach necessary for Abbotsford and BC to take positions as economic leaders in the short, medium, and long terms.

2.1.6 WeTown as BC’s New Hi-Tech Hub The programming of WeTown is designed to build on the current strengths of BC’s high-tech sector, while facilitating an investment in innovation capacity. Employment space purpose-built for large hi-tech employers will form the overwhelming majority of office space at WeTown. It is anticipated that the opportunity to locate to purpose-built space situated in a picturesque community with abundant housing - while still within a large metro area - will prove attractive to large multinational tech firms, and will therefore result in BC attracting large tech operations at a higher rate than in the absence of WeTown. In turn, being home to a higher proportion of large firms will result in more competitive rates of innovation.

Similarly, WeTown provides an opportunity for the creation of institutions that will vastly enhance BC’s innovation capacity. The size of the site renders it possible to build space for virtually any desired size of research institution and/or university. Additionally, co-location with major hi-tech firms should spur a virtuous circle of collaboration, partnerships, and innovation. For example, WeTown could facilitate the local agriculture industry to adopt new technologies to enhance its productivity and economic competitiveness.

Built with smart infrastructure, including ICT infrastructure and IoT, WeTown will be a showcase of what an intelligent community is and is poised to help the City of Abbotsford grow into a smart city.

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 13 2.1.7 Employment & Accelerant Uses The single most important component of WeTown’s success is the attraction of a large, highly recognized office tenant in the technology field, which serves as a catalyst for attracting subsequent tenants and spurring additional development. The importance of other accelerant activities is discussed, highlighting the creation of a high-technology employment and education cluster associated with emerging technological fields.

Hosting a cluster of technology-related employers and institutions on the same site is key to facilitating the spread of knowledge, creating opportunities for collaboration, and establishing a critical mass of activity. A potential post-secondary component could host the expansion of a local institution (ie. UFV), a branch campus of an existing international university, or both.

North America is replete with examples of technology clusters forming outside the downtown of metropolitan areas, often of a very similar distance as Abbotsford to Vancouver. In Metro Vancouver itself, numerous examples can be found of large technology firms opting to locate in more campus-like locations outside downtown Vancouver.

2.1.8 Land Use Forecasts Preliminary land use forecasts for employment, residential, retail, hotel and other major land uses have been conducted by the consultant. All figures are based on the assumption that market conditions remain favorable, economic trends remain conducive to the proposed tenant mix, and that a marketing program will be of sufficient strength to attract the quantity of firms and residents at the scale envisioned. The medium scenario is considered the expected or anticipated scenario. Additionally, a high and a low scenario are presented in order to illustrate the magnitude of a 15% +/- deviation in warranted office space, and associated impacts on residential demand.

The preliminary Phasing Plan below provides the proposed breakdown by product type and denotes absorption of space, population growth and job growth in increments of 5 years over a study period of 20 years.

14 | PHASING PLAN SUMMARY OFFICE, ACCELERANT, RESIDENTIAL, RETAIL, HOTEL, OTHER Year 1-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 Total Ofﬁce Uses 750,000 450,000 480,000 470,000 2,150,000 Accelerant Uses - University, Research Institute, Incubator 600,000 350,000 300,000 200,000 1,450,000 Residential 3,575,000 1,970,000 1,737,000 2,086,000 9,368,000 Retail 336,000 421,000 181,000 262,000 1,200,000 Hotel 150,000 178,500 328,500 Other 300,000 200,000 250,000 250,000 1,000,000 Total Building Area 5,560,000 3,540,000 2,950,000 3,450,000 15,500,000 Total Cumulative Building Area 5,560,000 9,100,000 12,050,000 15,500,000 Number of Residents by Phase 10,900 6,052 5,317 6,512 28,781 Number of Workers by Phase 6,218 4,189 3,654 3,788 17,849 Number of Residential Units 4,773 2,690 2,400 2,604 12,470 (1) Hotel program assumes a 250 room hotel in Phase 2 (Year 6-10), and a 300 room hotel in Phase 4 (Year 16-20) (2) Other uses include civic, education, event space, public recreational infrastructure, healthcare and safety facilities

Table 1: WeTown Phasing Plan Summary

2.1.9 Marketing and Implementation The Urbanics report (Appendix A) outlines the strengths of Canada, BC, and Abbotsford as advantageous jurisdictions for large technology employers and institutions to establish major operations: Canada is exceptionally well educated and open to immigration; BC is a rapidly emerging global financial centre and desirable destination for skilled migrants; Abbotsford boasts substantially less costly housing than the bulk of the Lower Mainland. In addition to the compelling features of WeTown’s proposed built form, the highlighting of exceptional governance, living standards, and climate of openness afforded by all jurisdictions will form a critically important component of WeTown’s attraction to prospective world-class tenants.

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 15 3 Mobility

16 | 3.1 WeTown Transportation Considerations

Bunt & Associates Engineering Ltd. has been retained to provide transportation planning advice for the development of WeTown. A summary of ﬁndings is provided below, with the full report provided in Appendix B.

The mobility study has highlighted the various ways in which WeTown is being planned in a sustainable transportation manner to meet the day-to-day needs of the residents and employees with a focus on promoting walking, cycling, car sharing and transit use and thus minimizing auto usage/ownership. The key findings are summarized as follows:

• The existing transportation network in the WeTown site and adjacent area is primarily designed for vehicular traffic. It lacks connectivity of pedestrian sidewalks, bicycle routes, and frequent transit services.

• Key access points to WeTown will be at McKee and Sumas Mountain Roads. Table 2 summarizes the existing characteristics of the adjacent road network.

Table 2: Existing Characteristics of Adjacent Road Network

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 17 • As illustrated in Table 3, the proposed mix of uses in WeTown is expected to generate approximately 3,300 and 4,400 vehicle trips during weekday AM and PM peak hours, respectively.

Table 3: AM and PM Peak Hour Trip Generation

• The design concept of a self-contained community at WeTown offers the opportunity to achieve the targeted mode shift from single occupancy vehicles to other sustainable modes including walking, cycling and transit. Table 4 illustrates the anticipated effectiveness of different Transportation Demand Management (TDM) measures to be implemented at WeTown.

Table 4: Anticipated TDM Effects

• WeTown is being planned to prioritize walking, biking, transit and carsharing/carpooling. Investment choice and space allocation decisions revolve around alternative modes of transportation before the single occupant vehicles. Specifically, WeTown will be planning a series of complementary and integrated TDM strategies.

18 | • Key TDM measures include, but are not limited to, complete street design, a new bike route along McKee Road, end-of-trip amenities, residential shared e-bike system, frequent and direct transit connection between WeTown and Abbotsford City Centre, parking management, and public carshare. These combined efforts are estimated to reduce vehicle travel demand by approximately 30%. Tables 5 and 6 illustrate the modal share, expressed as a percentage and as number of trips, anticipated after the development of WeTown.

Table 5: Anticipated Future Mode Share

Table 6: Anticipated Future Trips by Mode

• Based on the levels of travel generation, two existing road segments would need to be widened from 2 travel lanes to 4 travel lanes: (1) McKee Road (between Ledgeview Drive and Sumas Mountain) and (2) Whatcom Road (between McKee Road and Sandringham Drive). The estimated cost of widening is approximately $11.6M for McKee Road and $7.7M for Whatcom Road.

Table 7: Road Improvement Costs

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 19 • The capital cost of other transportation improvements, including public carshare, shared e-bikes, and transit services, totals approximately $11.9M with a 5% contingency. Annualized replacement cost is estimated to be $1.8M per year, and operating cost is $3.8M per year. Different funding sources might be available to provide these services. However it is expected that these will get initially funded by ATDI.

Table 8: Other Improvement Costs

• There are several options to fund the road network improvements. One common way is to apply transportation DCC’s towards the recommended capital transportation improvements. Since WeTown will likely be required to pay DCC’s to the City of Abbotsford, eventually the City will include these improvements as part of their transportation capital plan. The road improvements would be required when WeTown is at approximately 50% build out.

• Usually the developer will be responsible for the capital cost to provide the carshare vehicles. The carshare system’s operations and maintenance need to be negotiated between the developer and the third-party vendor. Vehicle introduction would be phased with the residential build-out, with the first vehicle provided after the first unit is occupied and one vehicle thereafter for each additional 180 units.

• Similar to the public carshare system, the capital cost is usually covered by the developer. The developer should discuss with the third-party vendor on specific bicycle types, operations and maintenance. Bicycle introduction would be phased with the residential units and employment increases. Since bike stations usually hold 20 E-bikes, at the proposed rate of the 1 E-Bike per every 20 swelling units, preliminary an E-bike station is required per every 400 dwelling units.

20 | • Transit services in Abbotsford are provided by BC Transit and the implementation of transit services is usually led and planned by the transit agency. It is recommended that, as the development project plans get approved by the City, transit ridership levels would be communicated to the agency for consideration in their service expansion plans. Based on experience in other areas, it may take months or years for transit service coverage and/or frequencies to keep up with the demand levels. Since it is crucial to provide adequate transit services at the outset of the development to keep trip mode split at target levels, it is likely that WeTown might need to provide some developer-sponsored transit services until the agency is fully able to provide these services. The capital cost of the local community shuttle service continuously circulating through WeTown will be the responsibility of ATDI.

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 21 4 Drainage & Stormwater Study

22 | 4.1 WeTown Conceptual Servicing Review

Wedler Engineering LLP has been retained to provide a review of conceptual servicing for the development of WeTown. A summary of ﬁndings is provided below, with sample calculations, conceptual drawing, and precedent research provided in Appendices C through F.

With a projected growth of 30,000 people, WeTown aims to be a self-contained, sustainable, and tech-oriented community. Building on a philosophy of sustainability, Auguston Town Development Inc. is committed to implementing innovative servicing solutions, such as a full grey water recycling program and storm water retention ponds.

4.1.1 Water Servicing

Domestic Flow Demand Current City of Abbotsford (City) bylaws prescribe an average daily water demand of 570 litres per capita per day (lpcd) to be used for design calculations. Through improved metering, education, conservation, and loss prevention, it is likely that the City will consider 300 lpcd for the average daily design water demand. Given the reduced design water demand, the average flow demand would be approximately 105 litres per second (lps) (see Appendix C for calculations).

In an effort to further reduce the impact on the City infrastructure, a full grey water recycling system is proposed for WeTown. Grey water is classified by the BC Ministry of Health as “used household water sourced from baths, showers, bathroom basins and laundries, but doesn’t include toilet, kitchen sink, or dishwasher waste”. More information on grey water, and grey water recycling, can be found in Appendix E.

Based on a 2009 study completed in the City of Guelph, it is estimated that approximately 30 lpcd could be recycled in homes from the grey water system. The 2012 report detailing the findings of the study can be found in Appendix F. In addition to recycling water for domestic use, the grey water system can be used to supply the development’s irrigation system.

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 23 By utilizing a fully integrated grey water system, the design average daily demand could be reduced as follows: Design Average Daily Demand 300 lpcd Domestic Grey Water Recycling -30 lpcd Grey Water Irrigation Use -50 lpcd Net Average Daily Demand 220 lpcd

Based on the projected population increase of 30,000, the net average demand would be approximately 77 lps.

Fire Flow Demand Current City bylaws require fire flow demand to be estimated using the Fire Underwriters’ Survey (FUS) guidelines. FUS guidelines determine fire flow demands for a given building or structure, with consideration given to its specific details. As such, calculations will be completed on a building-by- building basis to determine the highest fire flow demands for the development.

As part of the City’s published 200K City Water Master Plan, the minimum fire flow requirements for a commercial or mixed-use development, such as WeTown, are proposed to be increased to 200 lps. The ultimate fire flow demand will be based on either the FUS guideline calculations or minimum fire flow requirements, whichever is greater.

Water System Analysis In order to determine the impact of the projected domestic and fire flow demands on the existing City system, the existing reservoir and piping system capacities will need to be reviewed. The City has modelled their existing water infrastructure system using InfoWater. This model can be used to analyze the required system upgrades to accommodate the projected demands. Further direction from the City is needed as to when this analysis can be completed. It is possible that some of the works identified in the 200K City Water Master Plan may be required earlier than planned in order to accommodate the WeTown development.

24 | 4.1.2 Sanitary Servicing

Domestic Flow Estimation Current City bylaws prescribe a design flow of 350 lpcd for average dry weather flow (ADWF). For peak dry weather flow (PDWF), a peaking factor of 2.6 is determined based on the projected population and the City’s Engineering Standard Design Drawing ES-S-2. While this factor is being used for the conceptual servicing review, the overall peaking factor will be reduced when considering the contributions from the entire Auguston Proper area. PDWF for WeTown is estimated to be 316 lps (see Appendix C).

Peak wet weather flow (PWWF) is determined by including the contribution of system infiltration to the PDWF. For the WeTown development area, approximately 48 Ha, the infiltration contribution is calculated as 5 lps. PWWF for WeTown is estimated to be 321 lps (see Appendix C).

The City’s 200K City Wastewater Master Plan indicates actual discharge has dropped to 225 lpcd. For initial concept design, 250 lpcd has been conservatively used as the design criteria. ADWF, PDWF, and PWWF using the reduced design criteria are 87 lps, 226 lps, and 231 lps, respectively.

Even with the reduced design criteria, flows of this magnitude would still be expected to have a considerable impact on the existing downstream sewer system. By utilizing a grey water recycling system, the design sanitary flows can be further reduced by approximately 190 lpcd (see Appendix C). The resulting design flows would be 21 lps (AWDF), 55 lps (PDWF), and 60 lps (PWWF).

Sanitary System Analysis To determine the impact of the projected sanitary flows on the existing City system, the existing sanitary system capacities will need to be reviewed. The City has modelled their existing sanitary infrastructure system using hydraulic modelling software. This model can be used to analyze the required system upgrades to accommodate the projected demands. Further direction from the City is needed as to when this analysis can be completed. Specifically, we expect hydraulic analysis of the Straiton sanitary sewer trunk main will be required. It is possible that some of the works identified in the 200K City Wastewater Master Plan may be required earlier than planned in order to accommodate the WeTown development.

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 25 Storm Water Management By utilizing global best practices for green buildings, such as green roofs and balconies, and maximizing green space within the development, the WeTown development has greatly reduced the storm water detention volumes typically seen in developments of similar population. The run-off coefficient for the site is calculated to be less than 0.50, which is a number typically associated with larger single family developments.

As shown on the Conceptual Storm Water Management Plan in Appendix D, there are a number of small water courses in the development area which all are a tributary to Clayburn Creek. Two large onsite ponds, of approximately 10,000 m2 each, feature as part of the site amenities while also providing detention storage and helping to sustain base flows in Clayburn Creek during extended dry periods. Environmental considerations will be addressed by others as the project progresses.

The City’s 200K Drainage Master Plan proposes improvements to the lower reaches of Clayburn Creek. Based on the 200K Drainage Master Plan, and the known current remaining works for Clayburn Creek, the detention requirements for WeTown will be based on the 1:10 year storm.

Based on the 48 Ha development footprint, and a run off coefficient of 0.5, the 1:10 year detention volume is approximately 10,000 m3, based on current City bylaws. This detention can be provided by the onsite ponds, with an active storage depth of 0.5m for each pond. Release rates will be established to meet design criteria and to suit base flows to water courses. To supplement the detention requirements, best practices for storm water management will be incorporated into the design with onsite rain gardens, absorbent soils in landscape areas, and infiltration opportunities.

In addition to providing stormwater detention requirements, the two large ponds can be used for rain harvesting as storage facilities. The treated grey water may also be directed to the ponds for equalization, storage, and overflow. By using the ponds in these ways, the stored water may be used to satisfy the irrigation demands for the site.

The detention ponds are initially assessed to be able to provide sufficient capacity to meet the stormwater detention requirements of the City. However, detailed storm water modelling will still need to be completed as the design progresses, including analysis of creek base flows, detention, infiltration, grey water recycling, allowable release rates, and peak flows.

26 | Next Steps Wedler Engineering is currently communicating with the City water and sewer departments to establish the scope of work for modelling the projected water demands and sanitary flows for WeTown. Wedler Engineering has had discussions with the City about implementing a grey water system, with initial consideration given by the City at this conceptual servicing stage. Further works will advance based on acceptance of reduced demands and flows with a grey water system, modelling results, and the advancement of the WeTown concept.

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 27 5 Environmental Study

28 | 5.1 WeTown Environmental Study

Envirowest Consultants Inc. has been retained to provide environmental consultation for the development of WeTown. A summary of preliminary ﬁndings is provided below.

The proposed WeTown development is located adjacent to McKee Road, with some lands north of McKee Road and west of Blauson Boulevard where development potential is limited by the significant ravine of Clayburn Creek and its tributaries. South of McKee Road the proposed development is generally bounded by Sumas Mountain Road to the east and steep topography south of the existing gas pipeline corridor.

The proposed development concept for WeTown involves development within portions of the Auguston lands that are affected by environmental features. With the exception of some land north of McKee Road, the City’s web-map identifies these lands as sensitive ecosystems. Although not as extensive, the City also identifies a high percentage of the project area as stream habitat.

Clayburn Creek and its tributaries are contained within the well-defined ravines to the north of McKee Road. The upper headwaters of Clayburn Creek to the south of McKee Road include a number of streams within four sub-drainages. Where these streams are contained in ravines they tend to be shallower than the ravines north of McKee Road. Reflecting the generally flatter topography, many of the channels are poorly defined and include small wetlands and/or ponds. A constructed channel along the gas pipeline corridor drains to several of the tributary streams. These streams are all considered to be fish habitat.

The lands within the WeTown development area are relatively undisturbed and include a variety of plant and wildlife communities. Detailed inventories and assessments of these resources have not been initiated.

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 29 The current WeTown concept has been revised (see Figure 3) to generally avoid building on areas with the most sensitive ecosystems. The revised plan further reduces the environmental impact by avoiding (or crossing over top of) the higher value habitat features. The road/transportation linkages (center line) are shown as the black dash lines. Dark patches are stream crossing that will be aerial/elevated. The pink areas are where ground-based development should be focused.

Road/Transportation Linkages

Elevated Stream Crossing

Development Areas

Figure 3: WeTown Concept

Detailed ground-level investigations are required to accurately delineate ecological features and document the plant and animal resources they support. Once this exercise is completed the proposed WeTown development application will follow the Natural Environmental Development Permit Guidelines and provide the City with the environmental data, including impact mitigation and (to the extent deemed necessary) habitat compensation plans. We understand that the proposed WeTown development is expected to recognize and address environmental sensitivities associated with the existing natural environment such that there is No-Net-Loss of critical habitats. The proposed development will be more than 50 percent open space and is also expected to reflect state-of-the-art environmental standards for building design, energy reduction, water use and air quality. Development footprints would be minimized through the use of elevated structures, emphasis on vertical design, and implementation of the latest standards for stormwater management.

30 | WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 31 6 Compatibility with the Ofﬁcial Community Plan 6.1 Abbotsford’s Ofﬁcial Community Plan

In June 2016 Abbotsford City Council adopted “Abbotsforward”, its new Ofﬁcial Community Plan.

6.1.1 Abbotsforward Abbotsford’s Official Community Plan is unique as rather than developing a plan with a timeline in mind, Abbotsforward plans for a specific population – 200,000 people. Throughout the OCP, policies are organized around the following 7 Big Ideas for the future:

Create a Establish Distinct and Make Walking, Biking, City Centre Complete Neighbourhoods and Transit Delightful

Make Places Improve Natural Enhance Make the for People and Built Systems Agricultural Integrity Plan Work

The 7 Big Ideas are intended to provide the most essential and transformative ingredients of the Plan, ultimately setting the stage for the City of Abbotsford to achieve its vision.

6.1.2 Vision The City of Abbotsford’s Official Community Plan presents a vision for Abbotsford as it approaches a population of 200,000. Central to this vision is a City of distinct and complete neighbourhoods, anchored by a thriving City Centre, serving as the heart of public, economic, and cultural life. In this vision, residents have attractive choices for moving around the City, including safe and enjoyable bike and pedestrian experiences as well as frequent, fast and reliable access to transit. With a focus on complete communities and a compact urban form, residents will be able to access daily needs on foot,

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 33 within their neighbourhoods. Jobs will be located closer to home and a range of diverse housing options will allow people to stay in their neighbourhoods as they age. Preserving agricultural areas for agriculture will help it remain a pillar of the local economy. A focus on sustainability includes protecting the community’s cherished trails and natural areas, as well as the quality of air, water and parks. Continuing to develop more efficient, well-designed, and cost-effective systems of open space, housing and buildings, infrastructure, and transportation will further help Abbotsford’s transition to sustainability.

6.1.3 Aspirations The vision described above is reflected through the following key aspirations: Life in the City Abbotsford has more street life, more night life, and more public life as the City grows. There are many options for entertainment, culture, recreation, and gathering with others. These include public places like libraries and community centres, and other places like cafes and night spots. City Centre Abbotsford sees the beginning of a true City Centre as the heart of public, economic, and cultural life. It has a clear identity as the most vibrant urban area in the City with diverse destinations and activities. It is also a successful and complete urban neighbourhood. Transportation Choice Abbotsford has real, attractive choices in the way residents move around their City. They will be able to safely and enjoyably get around by foot and bike, and have access to transit that is frequent, fast, and reliable. Walkable, Bustling Neighbourhoods More residents are able to walk to a grocery store and other daily needs in their neighbourhoods. They have more destinations for celebrating heritage, learning, shopping, playing, gathering, and working close to home. Natural Areas and Trails Cherished trails and natural areas are protected for generations to come, and the quality of air, water and parks improve each year. Agriculture Agriculture is the backbone of Abbotsford’s history and a pillar of the economy. As an important part of the past, it is also an important part of the future. Agricultural areas are kept for agriculture.

34 | Housing Options Abbotsford has more affordable ownership, rental, and shelter housing options, including a variety of housing types for all stages of life, allowing people to stay in their neighbourhoods as they age. Compact City Abbotsford builds up much more than they build out. In the process, Abbotsford respects the character of their existing neighbourhoods even as they continue to change. Efﬁcient and Effective Systems Abbotsford collectively conserves resources and reduces greenhouse gas emissions through more efficient, well-designed, and cost-effective systems of open space, housing and buildings, infrastructure, and transportation. Jobs Abbotsford is expanding their economy and employment base, building on their existing strengths including the university, airport, hospital, and agriculture. Residents have shorter commutes to and from work, within a compact urban area. Mill Lake Mill Lake is the jewel of the City. It will be maintained, enhanced, and celebrated as an integral part of the City identity.

6.1.4 Compatibility As outlined in the introduction to this report, WeTown’s guiding principles are as follows:

Capitalize on Emphasize Focus on Create a new Develop a Bring additional employment & Sustainability work-life regional Hi-Tech self-contained, vibrancy to housing trends balance & Centre mixed-use downtown quality of life community Abbotsford

The guiding principles established for this development ensure that WeTown reflects the goals and objectives established in Abbotsford’s Official Community Plan. Figure 1, below, illustrates where these principles conform to the OCP’s main aspirations.

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 35 Life in the City

City Centre

Transportation Choice

Walkable, Bustling Neighbourhoods

Natural Areas & Trails

Agriculture

Housing Options

Compact City

Efficient & Effective Systems

Jobs

Mill Lake

Figure 4: WeTown principles & OCP aspirations

Figure 1, provides a high-level overview of how WeTown’s guiding principles align with the core aspirations of Abbotsford’s Official Community Plan. Cells with the colour grey are those where WeTown is not likely to have a direct influence.

36 | The following diagrams illustrate how the development of WeTown will assist in fulfilling the aspirations of the Official Community Plan.

Life in the City As identified in the recently adopted Parks, Recreation and Culture Master Plan, many residents in east Abbotsford feel that their community is underserved by Parks, Recreation and Culture amenities as these tend to be clustered near the City Centre. WeTown intends to fill an important gap in east Abbotsford, providing state of C Community Centres Arenas the art PRC amenities, bringing Indoor Sports Facilities Librairies additional life to this part of the Aquatic Facilities City. Figure 5: Abbotsford’s PRC amenities

City Centre The growth and development generated by WeTown will help strengthen the City Centre as the cultural and economic hub for Abbotsford. The City Centre will remain an attractive place to live and recreate for Abbotsford residents and visitors. Enhanced transit connections will create a sustainable link between WeTown and the City Centreas well as the City’s other Mixed Figure 6: Abbotsford’s Urban Centres Use Centres5IJTXJMM DPOUSJCVUF UP8F5PXOBTB secondNBKPS activity centre UP complement downtown.

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 37 Transportation Choice WeTown is committed to transportation demand management and will ensure that the use of single-occupancy vehicles is kept to a minimum. This will be accomplished by encouraging alternative transportation options throughout the community itself, such as walking, cycling and e-bikes, as well as by justifying transit improvements and

Figure 7: Transportation Choice to/from WeTown investments in car-sharing, connecting WeTown to downtown Abbotsford.

Walkable, Bustling Neighbourhoods WeTown will be a community where daily needs are met on foot. Currently, east Abbotsford is fairly isolated from the rest of the community. Development at WeTown will help intensify east Abbotsford and fill the walkability gaps throughout this part of the City.

800 metre walkshed Figure 8: Walkability

38 | Natural Areas and Trails With the majority of the site being retained as green space, WeTown will provide an abundance of natural areas and trails. In addition, it is positioned to become an anchor for the greenbelt that is beginning to take shape to the north of downtown Abbotsford. By taking advantage of existing natural features, such as ravines, WeTown will offer a unique balance between nature and city.

Figure 9: Abbotsford Green Belt

Agriculture WeTown intends to showcase Abbotsford’s agricultural sector and help ensure that the Agricultural Land Reserve lands will be preserved. The community will provide a research and innovation environment that will help entrepreneurs and experienced farmer’s carry Abbotsford’s agricultural industry into the

Figure 10: Urban Development Boundary & ALR future. Urban Growth Boundary

Agricultural Land Reserve

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 39 Housing Options WeTown will diversify Abbotsford’s housing stock. Particularly as it provides some of the first high density multi- residential options outside of the City Center. Additionally, 2 million square feet of affordable housing will help offset rising costs in the Fraser Valley. Residents of WeTown can age in place. Younger residents can up-size while older residents can

Figure 11: Housing Mix downsize, all within one Moderate-high density housing community.

Low density housing

Compact City WeTown itself is being designed as a very compact and sustainable community with higher densities and connectivity than that of a typical neighbourhood. In addition, the residential and employment capacity provided at WeTown will allow the City to grow into a sustainable and compact form. Future growth will be contained within the Urban Development Figure 12: Urban Development Boundary & ALR Urban Growth Boundary Boundary and the Agricultral Agricultural Land Reserve Land Reserve lands will be preserved.

40 | Efficient & Effective Systems WeTown will help Abbotsford become a more efficient and effective system by shortening distances between daily needs, particularly for residents of east Abbotsford SFEVDJOH USBOTQPSUBUJPOSFMBUFE$() FNJTTJPOTJOUIFQSPDFTT. As a bookend for development on the eastern edge of the Urban Development Boundary, WeTown will help Abbotsford

Figure 13: Network of Urban Centres densify and develop a more practical and sustainable land use pattern.

Babich Industrial Lands Jobs By focusing on creating hi-tech employment opportunities, WeTown will add 18,000 new jobs and considerable diversity to Abbotsford’s employment base, complementing the existing economic areas and South Abbotsford Industrial Lands providing a significant employment base in east Figure 14: Abbotsford’s Employment Areas Abbotsford while spreading employment throughout the City.

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 41 Mill Lake Mill Lake will continue to be a central landmark in Abbotsford and the jewel of the City. The growth and tourism generated by WeTown will bring additional visitors to Mill Lake Park, contributing vibrancy to the area and solidifying Mill Lake as the heart of the City.

Figure 15: Mill Lake

Discussion Central to the WeTown vision is the aim to help the City of Abbotsford diversify its employment base. With the recent refusal by the Agricultural Why a Hi-Tech Hub? BC’s hi-tech sector is Land Commission to designate 497 acres of Agricultural Land Reserve for growing at double the rate industrial use, it is clear that Abbotsford must find ways to provide of the overall provincial economy, it supports employment growth within the existing Urban Development Boundary. As more than 84,000 well- outlined in section 2, Abbotsford should strive to capture the growth in paying jobs and most of hi-tech, BC’s fastest growing and highest paying sector. Failing to do so will the sector has full employment. There are result in Abbotsford falling further behind other BC municipalities such as more jobs in the hi-tech Vancouver, Victoria and Kelowna. sector than in forestry, mining, oil and gas combined. The OCP is focused on establishing a vibrant City Centre and directing much of the anticipated growth towards the core. However, to accommodate the hi-tech hub that British Columbia needs, more land is required than is available downtown. To reap the benefits that come with a significant hi-tech hub, the City of Abbotsford needs to support the proposed WeTown location and its approximately 100 acres of developable land. Successful technology hubs tend to be located in campus environments outside of the downtown core, and the WeTown concept has been developed with the aim of complementing rather than competing with other Centres located throughout Abbotsford. As a result, the entire City stands to benefit from the development of WeTown.

42 | 6.2 Urban Structure & Growth

The OCP provides an Urban Structure Map which is deﬁned by a hierarchy of Mixed Use Centres. These include the City Centre, Urban Centres, and Neighbourhood Centres.

The City Centre serves as the centre of Abbotsford’s public, economic, and cultural life, and has a City wide draw. There are four Urban Centres located near the City Centre. These are secondary to the City Centre in terms of scale and intensity of use, providing both City wide appeal and neighbourhood function. The Urban Centres anchor the Primary Transit Corridor and are important community gathering places, places of employment, and rich with amenities and destinations. Secondary to the Urban Centres are 14 Neighbourhood Centres intended to serve their surrounding neighbourhoods, with short, walkable trips, meeting the many daily needs of nearby residents. The Urban Core surrounds the City Centre and Urban Centres and is the area with the most redevelopment and intensification of uses. The Primary Transit Corridor serves the Urban Core, connecting the City Centre with the Urban Centres. The area surrounding the Urban Core comprises existing neighbourhoods and employment lands, as well as a large area designated for New Neighbourhoods. The New Neighbourhoods area is located within the Urban Development Boundary and will see the development of new neighbourhoods as Abbotsford moves towards a population of 200,000.

City Centre

Urban Centre

Neighbourhood Centre

Urban Core

Infill Area

Existing Neighbourhoods Primary Transit Corridor Regional Transit Connection

Employment Lands

New Neighbourhoods

Urban Development Boundary

Figure 16: Urban Structure & Growth Map

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 43 6.2.1 Policy With the aim of achieving the urban structure and growth format outlined above, the City of Abbotsford has adopted the following policies:

• The City of Abbotsford anticipates accommodating a population of 200,000 and beyond within the existing Urban Development Boundary. As a result, expanding the boundary within the life of this OCP will not be considered for residential growth.

• 75% of future residential growth will occur within established centres and existing neighbourhoods. Of this, 60% will occur in the Urban Core, and 15% will take place in Existing Neighbourhoods and around Neighbourhood Centres outside the Urban Core. The remaining 25% is to be accommodated for in New Neighbourhoods. In future iterations of the OCP, residential growth will continue to be directed to areas within the Urban Development Boundary.

• 70% of all new commercial development will be directed towards areas designated as City Centre, Urban Centre, and Neighbourhood Centre.

• The Centres of growth will be hubs connected through a coordinated network of transit and bike routes.

• New developments will be required to fully pay for the costs of infrastructure capacity improvements that benefit the entire community through mechanisms such as development cost charges, community amenity contributions, and other tools.

• Beyond 200,000 people, the OCP anticipates adding new centres and/or connecting centres with corridors of higher density uses. By focusing growth and supporting existing centres, the Plan supports growth there first before adding new areas for higher density uses.

6.2.2 Key Areas of Alignment

• A new Mixed-Use Hi-Tech Centre will contribute to the City of Centres vision.

• WeTown complements the City Centre by introducing a second major strong activity centre in the City.

44 | • WeTown is located within the area designated as New Neighbourhood. This area is anticipated to accommodated 25% of the OCP’s projected growth, making the area home to 15,000 future residents. WeTown can accommodate 30,000 residents, allowing the City to grow above and beyond what is currently projected in the OCP.

• WeTown will contribute a substantial revenue stream for the City by way of property taxes and charges (approx. $40m/yr) and development cost charges (approx. $315m to $410m).

• WeTown could spur the development of a high density corridor through east Abbotsford. This will help justify long-term investments in transit and bring both vibrancy and amenities to east Abbotsford.

6.2.3 Challenges

• The City of Abbotsford intends to concentrate new development around the City Centre and existing neighbourhoods.

• The OCP is intended to provide growth for up to 200,000. WeTown will bring additional growth to the City, not currently accounted for or planned for.

• WeTown will become a large hub located nearly 6km from downtown, in a part of the City not well serviced by transit at this point.

Discussion WeTown is poised to help achieve many of the urban structure and growth Why a Hi-Tech Hub? Overall the hi-tech sector objectives outlined in the OCP. A development of this magnitude in east is responsible for $23-26 Abbotsford will go a long way towards strengthening connections across the billion of British City and generating a sustainable revenue stream for the City. Importantly, Columbia’s GDP and more than 165,000 jobs. the growth generated by WeTown will be above and beyond that which is Growth in the sector anticipated in the OCP. WeTown will not be developing at the expense of benefits the rest of the economy more than other parts of Abbotsford. Rather, these areas will benefit from WeTown and growth in primary continue to grow and develop towards the vision established in the OCP. resource industries. With this in mind, the City can and should continue to direct growth and development towards the City Centre. As another Mixed Use Centre in the City of Abbotsford, WeTown will offer a unique blend of residential and

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 45 employment opportunities, services, recreation, and lifestyle that will complement the other fantastic Centres located throughout Abbotsford. As WeTown evolves, so too will its residents who may eventually choose to relocate to other parts of the City as their lifestyles change. In this way, the new residents and investment attracted by WeTown will be experienced across all areas of the City.

The development of WeTown will provide the City of Abbotsford with the following benefits related to Urban Structure and Growth objectives:

Designated for City of Centres Sustainable Revenue Growth

WeTown will generate A new Mixed Use A development of this growth for the City of Hi-Tech Centre at size will generate a Abbotsford in excess of WeTown will benefit all significant and that which is currently residents of Abbotsford sustainable revenue planned for in the OCP. by strengthening the stream for the City by The area is designated a hierarchy of Centres way of more than $300 New Neighbourhood and and ensuring that the million in development is expected to accomodate City can accommodate cost charges, and over 15,000 new residents. projected growth within $40 million per year in WeTown will increase this the existing Urban property taxes and to at least 30,000, Development Boundary. charges. providing justification for In addition, WeTown will long term investments in complement the City transit that will connect Centre by introducing a WeTown with Abbotsford’s second major activity other Mixed Use Centres. centre.

46 | 6.3 Land Use

Land use policy in the Ofﬁcial Community Plan is categorized according to four designation groups: Mixed Use Centres; Residential Neighbourhoods; Employment Lands; and, Supporting Lands.

Mixed Use Centres include the City Centre, four Urban Centres and 14 Neighbourhood Centres. These areas are intended to provide a mix of uses including retail, office, and residential, creating a mix of uses that functions as a distinct neighbourhood. To achieve this, the following policies are in place:

6.3.1 Policy

• Focus the highest densities and the greatest mix of uses in the Urban and Neighbourhood Centres within individual neighbourhoods, creating a ‘City of Centres’.

• Focus significant residential intensification in the City Centre, targeting an estimated 10,000 new residents within an overall city-wide population of 200,000 residents, including families and children.

• Focus additional residential intensification around the Urban and Neighbourhood Centres.

• Enhance the City Centre as the primary employment hub and business centre by attracting and permitting major office development in the City Centre.

• Buildings in the City Centre are limited to 16 storeys and a density of 1.0 to 2.5 FSR.

• Buildings in Urban Centres are limited to 6 storeys and a density of 1.0 to 2.0 FSR.

• Buildings in Neighbourhood Centres are limited to 4 storeys and a density of 0.7 to 1.5 FSR, as well as a commercial retail unit maximum of 4,000m2.

• Urban 2 – Ground Oriented - enables multifamily housing to support Mixed Use Centres and/or to serve as transition areas near single detached neighbourhoods. This designation permits ground oriented row or townhouses to a maximum of 3 storeys. Large sites of 1 Ha or greater may incorporate multi storey buildings up to 4 storeys. The permitted density is from 0.5 to 1.5 FSR.

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 47 • Urban 4 – Detached - enables low density single detached housing in neighbourhoods. This designation permits single detached dwellings, with some ground oriented duplexes. Large sites of 1ha or greater may incorporate ground oriented buildings up to 3 storeys. Density is restricted to a maximum of 25 units per hectare.

• The intention of Neighbourhood Centres is to enable a mix of multifamily and commercial uses that function as neighbourhood gathering places and destinations including shops, restaurants, cafes, and services. They are intended to primarily serve their surrounding neighbourhood area.

• In the Urban and Neighbourhood Centres, use maximum and minimum setbacks to ensure there is sufficient space to accommodate seating or other amenities within public and semi-public spaces along retail streets.

6.3.2 Key Areas of Alignment

• WeTown will offer a mix of uses including residential, retail, commercial, parks and open space. This reflects the City’s vision of creating a City of Mixed Use Centres.

• WeTown will create a new Hi-Tech Centre in east Abbotsford, strengthening the east-west connections across the City.

• The area in and around WeTown is designated for future residential intensification.

• WeTown places an emphasis on a vibrant public realm. Public realm improvements will be incorporated throughout the entire community.

6.3.3 Challenges

• The scale and intensity of use proposed at WeTown is above and beyond what is currently permitted anywhere in Abbotsford. WeTown requires a new customized land use designation.

• Currently the Official Community Plan aims to concentrate new office development in the City Centre. However, WeTown requires that the City support major office development outside of the City Centre.

48 | Discussion While the proposed development of WeTown is located approximately 6 kilometres from the City Centre, it will nonetheless contribute vibrancy to Why a Hi-Tech Hub? British Columbia still lags downtown in the form of tourists, business travelers and new residents. behind other tech- Much like Silicon Valley’s relationship to the rest of the Bay Area, WeTown will producing provinces and the US, particularly in be a hi-tech cluster whose benefits are shared among a much broader area. exports, jobs and overall Likewise, the tech cluster in Kanata, Ontario is located 22km from downtown GDP contribution. Ottawa, providing substantial employment and related economic benefits to the entire Ottawa region.

The intention is that WeTown will become another Mixed Use Centre, oriented towards the hi-tech industry, complementing Abbotsford’s other Centres and contributing to the City’s overall vibrancy, employment, and innovation capacity. In addition, WeTown’s major office development is complementary to that of the City Centre as it serves a different job sector.

While the development will provide all of the services, amenities and requirements of a self-contained community, many of the benefits generated by WeTown will be captured by other areas of the City. Residents of WeTown will be drawn to downtown Abbotsford for the many natural and cultural amenities, and services that make it the true heart of the City. Additionally, it is expected that given downtown Abbotsford’s proximity to the airport, the City Centre will continue to capture the bulk of business and leisure travelers. As WeTown generates growth in the City’s tourism sector, the whole of Abbotsford will benefit.

To facilitate the development of WeTown in such a way that is capable of capturing the hi-tech sector’s potential, a new land use designation is required. The proposed Mixed Use Hi-Tech Centre designation provides the framework for developing WeTown into a self-contained hi-tech oriented community that can focus on sustainability, quality of life and vibrancy, while complementing Abbotsford’s other Mixed Use Centres.

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 49 Purpose and Building Type Density (min Name Uses Description and Height and max)

• Enable a mix of multifamily and commercial uses that offer city-wide appeal while serving surrounding neighbourhoods

Mixed Use • Complement the evolving City Multi storey (residential Centre buildings and including low, commercial) • Serve as the City’s primary hub mid, and high for hi-tech employment, rises. Heights Multi-unit 2.5 - 4.0 Mixed Use education and worker are variable residential floor space Hi-Tech accomodation (building heights ratio (FSR) Centre will be clarified Office • Serve a city-wide or through a neighbourhood area neighbourhood Retail plan). • Building types typically include a Institutional mix of retail and/or office space on lower floors and residential units on upper floors or a mix of retail and/or commercial on lower floors with offices on upper floors

Table 9: Proposed Land Use Designation

50 | Introducing a new Mixed Use Hi-Tech Centre designation in the OCP will contribute the following land use benefits to the City of Abbotsford:

Mixed Use Centres Building Height Density

1.0 FSR 1.0 FSR

1.0 FSR 0.5 FSR

WeTown proposes to Permitting greater Increasing allowable become a new Mixed building heights at density will result in a Use Centre in the City WeTown will help achieve more compact urban of Abbotsford, fulfilling the Official Community form that is both more many of the land use Plan’s compact City sustainable and more objectives outlined in objective, preserve more suitable for the Official Community than 50% of the site as accommodating large Plan. green space, and provide hi-tech sector firms. a visual connection between WeTown and downtown Abbotsford.

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 51 6.4 Establish Distinct & Complete Neighbourhoods

A central focus of the OCP is enabling complete communities.

The intention is for the City to develop into a network of centres that provide diverse housing types, employment opportunities and community amenities that all cater to Abbotsford’s growing and diverse population. To this end, the City has adopted the following policies:

6.4.1 Policy

• Support diverse housing types for a variety of household sizes, incomes, tenures, and preferences, ranging from single detached homes and townhomes, to low, mid, and high-rise residences, and distribute them across the City.

• Support family friendly multifamily development, with minimum outdoor amenity space and minimum numbers of 2 and 3-bedroom units.

• Incorporate age-friendly design that responds to the needs of older individuals and people with disabilities. Specifically, develop design criteria for accessible units, and establish a minimum number of units required to be accessible in the Zoning Bylaw.

• Increase the amount of affordable and adequate accommodation for lower income households.

• Create a more connected street network that breaks up larger blocks and increases the number of intersections. In Urban and Neighbourhood Centres, pay particular attention to intersection design through public spaces and corner buildings.

• Establish detailed street design and architectural standards to make walking, biking, and transit delightful throughout Urban and Neighbourhood Centres with particular emphasis on Retail Streets as determined in individual Neighbourhood Plans. This includes all elements of streets as ‘urban rooms’, including street and building edges, separating pedestrians and moving traffic, and forward views.

• Minimize off street surface parking in Urban and Neighbourhood Centres, requiring residential and commercial parking to be situated underground or within buildings along Retail Streets.

52 | 6.4.2 Key Areas of Alignment

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• WeTown will provide a range of housing options, from small apartment units to larger family friendly dwellings. A mix of ownership and rental opportunities as well as considerable affordable options will diversify Abbotsford’s housing stock.

• WeTown will include family friendly amenities such as shared daycares, shared kitchens and lounges, shared amenities, ample park space and public amenities. These family friendly characteristics reflect the City of Abbotsford’s intention to support family friendly development.

• The WeTown vision includes a proposed 30% affordable housing, amounting to approximately 2 million square feet. This aligns with the City of Abbotsford’s desire to increase the amount of affordable housing in the city.

• The design of WeTown prioritizes shared transportation by way of pedestrian connections throughout the community, in addition to public transport, shared cars, and shared bicycles. Keeping parking underground ensures that WeTown can provide an abundance of public spaces, parks, trails, and natural elements. In addition, a development of this size in east Abbotsford will rationalize investment in new transportation infrastructure to provide quicker connections to this part of town.

6.4.3 Challenges

• The OCP aims to focus residential intensification around existing neighbourhoods, the City Centre, and the historic downtown to provide market support for local retail uses.

Discussion Why a Hi-Tech Hub? The diverse housing options, shared amenities, sustainable transportation If British Columbia’s choices and network of public spaces will translate into a community that all hi-tech sector caught up to the US average, it residents will be proud to call home. Diversifying Abbotsford’s housing would create at least supply will lead to a greater mix of different demographic groups. Currently, 65,000 more jobs and generate $9.1 billion more the vast majority of higher density residential developments are located in the in GDP. City Centre, while lower density areas are located on the periphery. The result is a downtown that tends to cater to younger, generally single residents,

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 53 whereas the single-detached neighbourhoods cater to families and older adults. Mixing residential typologies, as is proposed at WeTown, will help integrate different demographic groups, allow older residents to age in place, and encourage families to consider smaller and more sustainable housing options.

WeTown will help achieve many of Abbotsford’s complete communities objectives, including:

Housing Choice Affordability Diversity & Inclusion

The proposed The housing supply at Diversifying the housing development will include a WeTown will include stock in east range of housing types to 30% affordable options, Abbotsford will result in ensure that all of with opportunities for a community that Abbotsford’s diverse both rental and caters to residents at all demographic groups are ownership. This stages of life. catered to. Providing a amounts to Incorporating both denser residential approximately 2 million family friendly amenities neighbourhood in this square feet of additional and age friendly design location will significantly affordable housing considerations will diversify the housing supply in the City of allow residents to age options available outside Abbotsford. in place and provide of the City Centre. opportunities to mix with other generations.

54 | 6.5 Make Walking, Biking & Transit Delightful

Abbotsford envisions a future where residents are able to get around safely, efﬁciently and enjoyably on foot, by bicycle and by transit. Single-occupancy vehicles will be given less-priority.

The City recognizes that to achieve this they must strive to align land use and transportation planning. Doing so will result in land uses that support sustainable modes of transportation by making trips shorter and more enjoyable. To achieve their desired mobility objectives, the OCP establishes the following policies:

6.5.1 Policy

• Make people the most important consideration when planning and designing new streets, creating places for safe, enjoyable walking and cycling, as well as for lingering, meeting and people watching.

• Create the conditions for efficient use of existing parking while managing demand. Support the need for less parking over time, and in particular less surface parking in Mixed Use Centres.

• Make transportation investment, space allocation, and improvement decisions in the Urban Development Boundary, particularly the Mixed Use Centres, based on a hierarchy as follows: 1. Walking (including accessibility) 2. Biking 3. Transit 4. Goods Movement 5. Multiple Occupant Vehicles 6. Single Occupant Vehicles

• Develop ambitious but realistic city-wide and neighbourhood specific mode targets that emphasize walking, biking, and transit use year-round, reflecting a multi-modal city. A suggested starting target is 25% of all trips being made without a vehicle in the life of this Plan, an increase from 7% today.

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 55 • Create a comprehensive direction system that is easy to understand and navigate for pedestrians, cyclists and transit users.

• Design right of ways to encourage people to walk, bike, and take transit, particularly along streets in the Urban Core and Neighbourhood Centres.

• Reduce travel distances by planning uses closer together and creating more direct connections to destinations.

• Increase the safety, accessibility and enjoyment of sidewalks and pedestrian pathways by improving the design of new streets.

• Create a continuous and complete urban network of safe, direct biking routes suitable for commuting and other daily trips. The network should connect as many residents as possible to major employment, education, amenity, and service nodes in the Mixed Use Centres with dedicated bike lanes or bikeways.

• Use principles outlined in best practice guides for urban bikeway designs, including separating routes adjacent to traffic travelling at 50km/hr or greater, at high volumes, and/or including truck routes, and prioritizing one way over two way cycle tracks.

• Highlight potential conflict zones with pavement markings, including intersections and crossings. Creative and playful measures are encouraged.

• Provide abundant, weather protected, secure, and conveniently located bike parking in all new multifamily, mixed use, commercial, institutional, major employment hubs, and major transit locations.

• Provide opportunities for rest, with seating at regular intervals on sidewalks and other pedestrian paths.

• Work with BC Transit to develop a strategy for achieving all day frequent transit service along the frequent transit network described in the life of this plan. This could include transit priority treatments such as signal coordination, transit bulges, intersection queue jumping, and dedicated transit lanes to reduce transit travel times and improve reliability, particularly in the Urban Core. • Review parking standards for new developments to ensure oversupply does not occur. Ensure flexibility to grant lower minimums in denser areas, and employ parking maximums to reduce surface parking lots in strategic areas and to reduce supply over time as part of achieving the mode shift target.

• Study the potential to require electric vehicle charging infrastructure in new multifamily, mixed use, employment centre developments where appropriate. Encourage retrofitting of existing buildings to include electric vehicle charging infrastructure.

• Working with emergency services to identify creative ways to provide emergency access while maintaining attractive and welcoming streets and intersections for pedestrians and cyclists. Minimize the overdesign of streets for large emergency vehicles such as fire trucks.

6.5.2 Key Areas of Alignment

• The proposed development at WeTown strives for a compact form that will ensure all trips throughout the community can be achieved on foot and by bicycle.

• Streets, intersections and paths throughout WeTown will be designed with people and a multi-modal lifestyle in mind. Effective wayfinding, state-of-the-art bikeways, and enjoyable walking paths will make travelling in and around WeTown a pleasure, regardless of chosen method.

• WeTown’s compact design will ensure that trips from residential areas to the employment precinct will be accomplished in 8 minutes or less.

• WeTown intends to provide all parking underground, keeping the public realm for people.

• Public art installations, sky bridges, parks+public spaces and landscaped paths will make walking the first choice for residents and visitors to WeTown.

• Development of WeTown will help justify investments in transit and transportation infrastructure, including road widening programs and bike routes, between WeTown and downtown Abbotsford. This will benefit all residents of east Abbotsford who will see improvements to the ways in which they move around their City.

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 57 • Transportation Demand Management techniques including bike storage, end of trip facilities and transit access will ensure that car use is kept to a minimum.

• Electric vehicle charging infrastructure will be provided at key locations throughout WeTown. In addition, electric bike-share programs will encourage efficient travel between WeTown and elsewhere in Abbotsford.

Discussion The mobility strategy envisioned for WeTown is one that matches its Why a Hi-Tech Hub? Investing in regional innovative and progressive character. WeTown’s compact design and its hi-tech centres has the comprehensive wayfinding and street designs create an environment where benefit of creating high- people can get around the community comfortably, safely and efficiently on paying, skilled jobs in rural and more remote foot. Additionally, accessibility is considered at every turn, ensuring that communities, giving local residents with mobility challenges can enjoy the community as comfortably, talent an opportunity to stay instead of fleeing to safely and efficiently as those without. the bigger city.

A typical walk from the residential areas to commercial and employment areas will be just 8 minutes. For those that need to commute to WeTown by car, parking will be provided entirely underground. Doing so will ensure that the centre of WeTown remain a place for people.

Travelling between WeTown and other parts of Abbotsford will require infrastructure improvements and investments in public transit. The residential and employment capacities envisioned for WeTown will more than justify these investments. Futher, residents throughout east Abbotsford will benefit from improved connections to other parts of the City.

In addition, Auguston Town Development Inc. is committed to transportation demand management measures to ensure that the development of WeTown will mitigate vehicle demand. For instance, the compact design and low proposed parking supply; the self-contained nature of the development; and the provision of car-share, e-bike share and end of trip facilities will all help reduce the amount of people travelling to and from WeTown by single- occupant vehicle.

58 | The proposed development at WeTown will have a significant impact on how residents in east Abbotsford will move around their City, as summarized below:

Car & E-Bike Share Walking Transit

WeTown is committed The compact design of The scale and intensity to transportation WeTown creates an of use proposed at demand management environment where WeTown will help measures, including car people can get around the support investments in and e-bike sharing community comfortably, public transit to and programs. The aim is to safely and efficiently on from the eastern edge facilitate residents and foot. A focus on of the Urban visitors moving accesibility ensures that Development Boundary. throughout the area as residents with mobility This will significantly efficiently as possible, challenges can move strengthen the east- while reducing around the community as west connections dependency on single- comfortably, safely and across the City of occupant vehicles. An efficiently as those Abbotsford. added benefit is less without. The expectation need for surface is that trips between the parking, leaving more residential areas and the opportunities for an commercial hubs will be improved public realm. no more than an 8-minute walk.

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 59 6.6 Parks, Recreation & Culture

Abbotsford intends to create beautiful and interesting public places.

With pedestrian-friendly buildings serving as the frame for public life, while parks, plazas and other open spaces provide the stage. To achieve this, the City has adopted the following policies:

6.6.1 Policy

• Provide new parkland and greenways in areas identified as being deficient and in future growth areas, high density areas, and intensification areas. Include urban types of parks such as plazas, boulevard tree strips, and other types of people places when assessing new parkland needs.

• Provide access to a variety of recreation programs and services in neighbourhoods.

• Acquire parkland through dedication associated with development projects where it fits within the broader open space network.

• Cluster parks and open space, where possible, with areas for active and passive recreation use that accommodate institutions and social facilities, indoor and outdoor recreation facilities, retail and restaurant areas, and other community amenities.

• Ensure consistent application of Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design (CPTED) principles in the planning and design of parks, trails, and recreational facilities, where aligned with holistic design principles.

• Manage parks in an environmentally sensitive manner.

• Connect neighbourhoods, where possible, to multiuse pathways and other trails that link neighbourhoods to Mixed Use Centres, park amenities, and recreation areas.

• Ensure cultural resources and activities provided by the City are inclusive.

60 | • Provide appropriate spaces for and encourage the installation of public art and artistic expression, formal or informal, in parks, greenways, open spaces, and other areas of the public realm, as well as buildings.

• Support access to municipally-owned cultural, archival, and museum collections that facilitate learning about Abbotsford’s past and present.

6.6.2 Key Areas of Alignment

• WeTown proposes more than 50% of site area allocated for green space. Residents will be very well served by parks and open spaces.

• Residents of WeTown and adjacent east-Abbotsford communities will benefit from gaining access to a variety of recreation amenities not currently available in this part of the City.

• WeTown’s public areas are being designed with CPTED principles in mind, to ensure a safe and enjoyable public realm.

• As a self-contained community, WeTown will ensure that cultural needs and aspirations of a diverse resident population will be addressed through programs, services and facilities.

• Public art will be incorporated throughout parks, greenways, and inside buildings. Cultural resources will be plentiful, accessible and welcoming for all.

• WeTown will showcase Abbotsford’s history, while highlighting its future. Residents and visitors will be afforded opportunities to learn, share and discuss information related to Abbotsford’s past, present and future.

Discussion Why a Hi-Tech Hub? Regarding the policies and objectives related to parks, recreation and Hi-tech innovations could help anchor a responsible culture, the proposed development at WeTown is very well aligned with the economy and solve some Official Community Plan. The Parks, Recreation and Culture (PRC) amenities of the most pressing problems of the 21st offered at WeTown are intended to service both the immediate community century at the same time. and the neighbouring areas. The recently adopted Parks, Recreation and The growing clean-tech sector is a great example Culture Master Plan highlights the need for additional amenities in east of how hi-tech can be a Abbotsford and WeTown will play a significant role in filling this gap. force for social good.

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 61 The building heights and density envisioned for WeTown will ensure that more than 50% of the site is preserved as green space. With this concentration of parkland, WeTown is poised to become an anchor for the green belt that is taking shape along the northern edge of Abbotsford’s Urban Development Boundary.

Mill Lake Park will remain the heart of Abbotsford’s park system and will benefit from the growth generated by WeTown. It will remain a primary landing spot for visitors to Abbotsford and continue to provide a place for residents to meet, interact, and celebrate the jewel of their City.

The proposed development at WeTown will significantly contribute to quality of life for all residents of Abbotsford, particularly as it relates to the following:

Inclusive Culture & Parkland & Green Space Recreation Programs Public Art

As a result of the compact With a significant emphasis Public art and cultural form proposed for on quality of life, WeTown amenities will be woven WeTown, more than 50% envisions providing a range into everyday life at of the site will be of recreation amenities that WeTown. The preliminary preserved as parkland will appeal to all of the concept includes art and green space. community’s future installations throughout Residents throughout residents. The preliminary buildings, along Abbotsford will benefit concept includes a variety greenways and in public from access to new public of parks, theatres, indoor plazas. Community park land on the eastern sports facilities, health and programming will respond edge of the City. This will wellness centres, and both to cultural needs and also serve to anchor the indoor and outdoor aquatic encourage cultural green belt taking shape to facilities. In addition, an expression. the north of downtown abundance of natural areas Abbotsford. and trails will be integrated with the existing Auguston trail network. 62 | 6.7 Community Development

Abbotsford strives to be inclusive of all people and their diverse needs and aspirations by creating places that support a vibrant community.

Abbotsford has established policies with the aim of fostering inclusivity through diverse and accessible buildings and public space, and amenities that meet a variety of cultural priorities. These policies include:

6.7.1 Policy

• Encourage cultural diversity and cross-cultural awareness to actively build a culture of tolerance and give residents opportunities to fully engage in the community, workforce, education, and public life.

• Recognize children and youth as citizens who contribute in their own way towards the quality of urban life. Approach their needs and the needs of families through coordinated amenities and services, transit, and public spaces; and through social development infrastructure such as health, education, employment, and housing.

• Consider the needs of older adults to promote active aging, aging in place, and providing a continuum of care to ensure they remain socially connected, active, and supported in their homes and community.

• Create neighbourhoods that are designed to encourage social interaction and community participation opportunities. This can include community hubs with shared service delivery and places that integrate health care, child care, family services, and local economic activity.

• Collaborate, advocate and communicate with public safety agencies to ensure shared outcomes and coordinated responses. Build strong communication and public awareness practices that focus on pro-active policing and prevention for greater quality of life, safety and well-being.

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 63 6.7.2 Key Areas of Alignment

• WeTown anticipates drawing from millenials’ housing and employment trends as well as the United States’ restrictive immigration policies to attract skilled hi-tech employees from around the world. This will contribute a great deal of diversity to the City and help achieve the City’s objectives of strengthening cross-cultural awareness.

• WeTown will be a vibrant community in which to live, work and visit. This will translate into an environment that fosters social interaction and community participation.

• WeTown fills an important gap in PRC amenities in east Abbotsford, bringing additional life and vibrancy to this part of the City.

• WeTown will provide education facilities from pre-school to post-graduation so as to nurture a knowledgeable workforce.

Discussion From a community development perspective, WeTown will help the City of Abbotsford achieve many of the objectives outlined in the Official Community Why a Hi-Tech Hub? Plan. By drawing on highly skilled hi-tech sector employees from around the With an increasing shift to world, Abbotsford will see its cultural diversity increase and its cross-cultural a more knowledge-based awareness improve as a result. Additionally, a benefit of the compact form economy, it is important for Canada and BC to proposed for WeTown will be incentives for community participation. When further explore and people live in dense, urban environments they are more likely to spend time develop the Research and Development (R&D) and out in the community, interacting with their neighbours and participating in technology sectors to stay civic events. competitive on a global scale.

Further, the emphasis that WeTown places on shared amenities and services will create additional opportunities for social interaction. The intention is that WeTown will become a community that is both diverse and inclusive, and where residents take a great deal of pride in where they live, work and play.

64 | To summarize, the points below highlight how the proposed development of WeTown will achieve many of Abbotsford’s community development objectives:

Cross-cultural Awareness Community Participation

With highly-skilled workers The compact form from around the world proposed for WeTown will anticipated to call WeTown result in a community that home, Abbotsford will see promotes social interaction its cultural diversity and community increase and its cross- participation. Residents will cultural awareness look out for another and improve. contribute to a safe and inclusive place to live and work.

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 65 6.8 Economy and Employment

Abbotsford’s economy will continue to be one of the most diverse and resilient in the country. With significant regional importance, the hospital, airport, and agricultural land will continue to draw investment. New opportunities for fibre optic, creative, and technology industries will add to Abbotsford’s attraction. To achieve this, the Official Community Plan has adopted the following policies:

6.8.1 Policy

• Continue to balance the number of jobs to number of residents employed in the labour force in the city, reducing the need for longer commute distances for residents. Support opportunities for jobs within complete communities wherever feasible.

• Support employment hubs by encouraging the City Centre as the primary office hub of the city, with supporting office and amenity areas near the University of the Fraser Valley and the Abbotsford Regional Hospital.

• Continue to support the growth and expansion of the airport as a destination for domestic and international flights, and aerospace related industries.

• Investigate opportunities for expanding creative industries, including consideration of measures to create affordable studio or workshop space, live/work uses, and flexible spaces where people can gather to share equipment and ideas. Leverage existing high tech infrastructure, such as the fibre optic network through the City Centre and Urban Centres, to draw new industries into the urban area.

• Support technology advancements and integration by existing industries such as agriculture, advanced manufacturing, and aerospace/aviation to develop Abbotsford as an innovation hub. Leverage existing high tech infrastructure, such as the fibre optic network, to draw new industries into the urban area. Consider developing a technology strategy for creating a colocation hub or incubator in the City Centre and Urban Centres.

• Encourage the continued diversification of a local economy that supports existing businesses, encourages the development of new businesses, and facilitates home-based business development with a wide variety of sectors. A distinct focus will be continuing to grow Abbotsford’s well established strategic sectors: agriculture, aerospace/aviation, and niche manufacturing.

66 | • Support a vibrant business community through local economic development programs including: o Investment attraction by marketing the City as an attractive destination for new business investment, with a focus on attracting sustainable growth in strategic sectors (e.g. businesses looking to invest for the long term and increased opportunities for building a local skilled workforce) o Start up support through resources and connections for early stage entrepreneurs who see Abbotsford as a long term home for their new businesses.

• Position Abbotsford as a destination for global business, leveraging key and consistent messaging in communications, including: o Showcasing Abbotsford as the most ideally positioned community within the Lower Mainland o Spotlighting Abbotsford’s transportation network, with affordable, highly efficient access to all of North America, the U.S. Pacific Northwest, and Asia Pacific. o Marketing Abbotsford as a diverse, livable community on the outskirts of one of the most desired global hubs in the world.

6.8.2 Key Areas of Alignment

• WeTown anticipates generating 15,000 jobs in new industries and 3,000 jobs in existing support industries. With the development of WeTown, there will be plenty of jobs, reducing the need for many residents to commute out of the City for work.

• WeTown will help support the growth and expansion of the airport as it will result in an increase in both business related travel and leisure travel to Abbotsford. In addition, the aerospace related industries clustered near the airport will benefit by having access to the highly skilled labour and innovation occurring at WeTown.

• WeTown intends to introduce a hi-tech research institute and establish an incubation centre in Abbotsford. This will help foster research and development, as well as an entrepreneurial environment in the City of Abbotsford.

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 67 • WeTown will incorporate co-work spaces and environments for like-minded people to collaborate and share ideas. This will help the City of Abbotsford’s quest to expand upon creative industries in the City.

• WeTown will help diversify the local economy by introducing a new sector with a great deal of potential. Further, the hi-tech industry in Abbotsford will be able to help support and strengthen the existing strategic sectors of agriculture, aerospace/aviation, and niche manufacturing.

• WeTown is exploring opportunities to partner with the University of the Fraser Valley to establish a satellite campus at WeTown, bringing students, researchers and programs to where the hi-tech employers will be located.

• WeTown would go a long way towards helping position Abbotsford as a business environment with international appeal.

• WeTown will help provide support to start-up enterprises, particularly in the form of facilities and social capital.

• WeTown embodies the 6 critical factors of an intelligent community as advocated by the Intelligent Community Forum, namely 1) Broadband; 2) Knowledge Workforce; 3) Innovation; 4) Digital Equality; 5) Sustainability; and 6) Advocacy. Built with smart infrastructure, WeTown will be a showcase of what an intelligent community is and is poised to help the City of Abbotsford grow into a smart city.

6.8.3 Challenges

• The City is supportive of employment hubs, however the intent is to direct these hubs around the City Centre, UFV, and the Abbotsford Regional Hospital.

• The City intends to leverage existing hi-tech infrastructure, such as the fibre optic network, to draw new industries into the urban area.

• The City is considering developing a technology strategy for creating a colocation hub or innovation hub in the City Centre or Urban Centres.

68 | Discussion WeTown will generate enormous economic development opportunities for the City, the Fraser Valley, and beyond. It will also achieve many objectives Why a Hi-Tech Hub? It is developments such related to economy and employment found in the OCP and help the City as WeTown that serve to grow into a smart city. Thus, an amendment to the OCP is warranted to propel BC forward in terms of creating a healthy direct employment growth not only in the City Centre, the Hospital and UFV, business climate with a but also to the proposed Mixed Use Hi-Tech Centre - WeTown. focus on hi-tech industries.

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If the City continues to focus employment growth only towards the downtown area then it risks missing out on the hi-tech boom, as in order to be successful, the sector requires more land than is available downtown.

WeTown complements the functions of the innovation hub at UFV and opportunities are plentiful for collaboration towards a common cause.

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 69 As described above, WeTown will go a long way towards strengthening Abbotsford’s economy, particularly in the following ways:

Economic Benefits Anchor Tenants Population & Employment

The development of WeTown WeTown is committed to 30,000 new residents and will generate economic attracting anchor tenants in the 18,000 new jobs will alter the benefits for the City of form of reputable hi-tech firms, a landscape in Abbotsford. Abbotsford, and British higher learning institution such Already among the fastest Columbia as a whole, such as UFV, a hi-tech research growing municipalities in the as a new BC hi-tech hub, a institute, or all of the above. province, this will vault diverse local economy, Doing so will ensure that the Abbotsford into the additional jobs with short residential and employment conversation of most desirable commutes and growth that infrastructure at WeTown can places to live, work, and do supports ongoing develop alongside each other, business, in British Columbia. development of Abbotsford resulting in a vibrant, mixed use Airport. community from the outset.

Intelligent Community

WeTown embodies the 6 critical success factors of an intelligent community and is poised to help the City of Abbotsford grow into a smart city.

70 | 6.9 Improve Natural & Built Systems

Abbotsford hopes to become both more “city” and more “country” by enhancing cherished natural areas while continuing to urbanize.

The hope is that even as Abbotsford continues to grow, residents will have easy access to nature, with a growing tree canopy, creative landscaping, green infrastructure and architecture, and other green and naturalized open spaces. To achieve this, the City adopted the following policies:

6.9.1 Policy

• Enhance and restore ecological links between existing natural areas and public open spaces, increasing connections between isolated habitats.

• Retain natural landforms, such as escarpments, ravines, rock promontories, hilltops, and glacial erratics.

• Protect terrestrial habitat, particularly areas with species at risk, and mitigate areas of habitat loss.

• Protect viewscapes to natural features such as Mt. Baker, north shore, and Fraser Valley mountains, and minimize the visual impact of development on the hillside from the lowlands.

• Develop a strategy to create regulations, incentives, and remove regulatory barriers to reduce energy consumption in buildings.

• Improve local water quality through reduction of point and non point source pollution, and through watershed planning in partnership with neighbouring and regional jurisdictions.

• Continue to work with Abbotsford Mission Water and Sewer Commission to ensure drinking water supply and distribution is managed and expanded to safeguard public health, protect the environment, and provide adequate supply for a growing population.

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 71 • Support an integrated management approach for the comprehensive management of surface water, stormwater, and ground water resources that promotes healthy aquatic ecosystems, resilience to climate change and the maintenance of hydrologic systems.

• Continue to work with Abbotsford Mission Water and Sewer Commission to meet or exceed provincial and federal wastewater treatment regulations to safeguard public health and protect the environment.

• Support ongoing initiatives that will provide for effective and responsible solid waste management of recyclables, compostables, and garbage through programs, education, services, policies, guidelines and alignment with the Fraser Valley Regional District’s Solid Waste Management Plan.

• Ensure the coordination of land use planning with the provision of essential utility infrastructure to facilitate project efficiencies, minimize costs and reduce disruption to the public.

6.9.2 Key Areas of Alignment

• WeTown prioritizes protecting views to Mt. Baker and the Fraser Valley mountains.

• WeTown will incorporate green roofs, natural ventilation, effective building envelopes, use of local wood, and other sustainability measures. This is consistent with the City’s policies regarding green building.

• WeTown will incorporate a strategy to reduce water consumption by 30% through conservation measures such as low-flow fixtures, xeriscaping, rainwater harvesting and grey water reuse on site.

• WeTown will include a rainwater harvesting system that stores water in reservoirs located within public parks. In addition to the sustainability advantages of this system, it will also add interest to the public realm and directly connect residents and visitors to part of the community’s sustainability measures.

• A strategy is in place to allow WeTown to reuse 50% of grey water.

• An on-site solid waste management program is being developed to ensure that WeTown helps the City of Abbotsford achieve the goals outlined in the Fraser Valley Regional District’s Solid Waste Management Plan.

72 | 6.9.3 Challenges

• Development at WeTown will create a lasting visual impression from elsewhere in Abbotsford.

Discussion From a sustainability perspective, WeTown is extremely well aligned with the Why a Hi-Tech Hub? If emerging hubs can offer aspirations of the Official Community Plan. Upon completion of WeTown, collaborative workspaces, Abbotsford will be home to a community that showcases the very best in practical support for sustainability. From the techniques used throughout the construction phases start-ups, collective marketing opportunities, to the practices employed post-occupancy, WeTown will become a model of and training programs to sustainable development. develop more skilled local workforce, they could have a big impact on the In order to maintain an efficient use of land while providing the space sector’s overall output. required for hi-tech sector enterprises, WeTown will require building heights that will result in a lasting visual impression from elsewhere in Abbotsford. However, through the use of innovative design, this visual impression will mitigated while preserving views to Mt. Baker and the Fraser Valley mountains. In addition, the visual impression will become celebrated as an iconic landmark for the City, the Fraser Valley and beyond.

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 73 Helping the City of Abbotsford make the transition to sustainability is a key consideration in the WeTown concept, as illustrated in the examples below:

Stormwater & Solid Green Building Water Conservation Waste Management

WeTown will incorporate WeTown will develop WeTown is committed to global best practices in measures to reduce integrated stormwater green building. This starts water consumption by management. Early design with the design of the 30% using low-flow concepts include large buildings, including green fixtures, xeriscaping, rain reservoirs that double as a roofs and balconies, harvesting and greywater key component of the passive design, and local reuse. These measures public space network. A materials, and continues are intended to make solid waste management throughout the buildings WeTown a model for program will help the City life-cycle. Reducing the water conservation. achieve the goals outlined carbon emissions in the FVRD Solid Waste produced by our Management Plan. buildings will help achieve sustainability.

74 | WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 75 6.10 Enhance Agricultural Integrity

As the backbone of Abbotsford’s history and a pillar of the economy, agriculture is an important part of the past and a critical part of the future.

The Official Community Plan strives to ensure that agricultural areas are retained for agriculture. The following policies highlight Abbotsford’s committment to their agricultural roots:

6.10.1 Policy

• Expand the scope of the Agricultural Enhancement Fund (‘Ag Trust Fund’) to support agricultural research, innovation, and farm practices.

• Encourage a thriving and innovative agricultural sector by supporting value-added agri-businesses in appropriate locations, including directing agri-processing facilities to specific areas.

• Support and showcase agricultural enterprise, research, and best practices.

• Support the agricultural sector by preserving the agricultural land base, marketing the industry, and supporting local and regional initiatives to protect and further develop the local food industry.

• Support a thriving food system throughout the city, including local production, processing, distribution, celebration, consumption, nutrient recovery, and waste to energy.

• Enable the production and sale of food throughout the urban area by developing urban agriculture guidelines and permitting small scale, commercial urban food gardens.

• Encourage and establish non-commercial community and demonstration gardens where feasible and appropriate in parks, right-of-ways, boulevards, vacant lots, and mixed-use developments.

• Support and establish a permanent farmers market facility to create a year-round local agricultural presence in the urban area.

76 | 6.10.2 Key Areas of Alignment

• WeTown has placed agriculture at the core of their concept and intends to feature the agricultural heritage of Abbotsford at the heart of the community.

• The intention is to create an environment that both embraces Abbotsford’s agricultural tradition and fosters research and innovation to help carry it into the future, such as hydroponics, aeroponics, etc.

• The residential and employment capacities offered at WeTown will allow the City to retain the existing Urban Development Boundary well beyond the lifespan of this OCP, preserving the Agricultural Land Reserve for agriculture.

• A state-of-the-art farmer’s market at WeTown will help market the products of the local and regional food industry on a wholesale level and retail level. In addition, community gardens will encourage new and old residents of WeTown to embrace the City’s agricultural roots.

• WeTown will facilitate the incubation of new agricultural apps and related internet of things (IoT) for farmers. Taking a traditional farming sector to the age of technology will increase food safety, food quality, and food waste awareness, benifiting the City’s entire agricultural industry.

• WeTown will provide the year-round permanent farmers market facility that the city seeks.

Discussion As a centre of research and innovation in the City of Abbotsford, WeTown has placed Abbotsford’s agricultural roots at the forefront of the vision for the Why a Hi-Tech Hub? Abbotsford is a growing area. A large, year round farmer’s market is proposed for the centre of the city with strong community, providing the opportunity to showcase the City’s history and transportation connections, established strengthen its local food industry. Additionally, facilities incorporated into the facilities and institutions, community will provide spaces for entrepreneurs and experienced farmers to Fibre Optic connectivity, innovate and help carry Abbotsford’s agricultural traditions into the future. In and proximity to Metro Vancouver. It is well addition to being a fantastic place to live and do business, WeTown will be at positioned to become a the forefront of solving the food related challenges that face the world. successful hi-tech centre.

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 77 The points below highlight how the proposed development of WeTown will achieve many of Abbotsford’s agriculture objectives:

Tradition Innovation Preservation

Honouring Abbotsford’s Providing an The residential and agricultural traditions is environment for employment base a central focus of the entrepreneurs and proposed at WeTown WeTown vision. experienced farmers to will help ensure that the WeTown will become a innovate will help carry ALR lands will be showcase for the local Abbotsford’s preserved. food industry. A state- agricultural industry into of-the-art farmers the future. For example, market will help trading on-site farming of local food products methods such as on a wholesale and hydroponics and retail level. Community aeroponics could be gardens will help used while reducing connect residents to transportation their food. requirements.

78 | 7 Conclusion

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 79 WeTown offers an opportunity for the City of Abbotsford to take charge of its future and lay the foundation for its transition into a world class community with international significance. As a new hi-tech centre in the heart of the Fraser Valley, WeTown will generate significant population and economic growth for the region. The proposed land use concept is highlighted below:

PHASING PLAN SUMMARY OFFICE, ACCELERANT, RESIDENTIAL, RETAIL, HOTEL, OTHER Year 1-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 Total Ofﬁce Uses 750,000 450,000 480,000 470,000 2,150,000 Accelerant Uses - University, Research Institute, Incubator 600,000 350,000 300,000 200,000 1,450,000 Residential 3,575,000 1,970,000 1,737,000 2,086,000 9,368,000 Retail 336,000 421,000 181,000 262,000 1,200,000 Hotel 150,000 178,500 328,500 Other 300,000 200,000 250,000 250,000 1,000,000 Total Building Area 5,560,000 3,540,000 2,950,000 3,450,000 15,500,000 Total Cumulative Building Area 5,560,000 9,100,000 12,050,000 15,500,000 Number of Residents by Phase 10,900 6,052 5,317 6,512 28,781 Number of Workers by Phase 6,218 4,189 3,654 3,788 17,849 Number of Residential Units 4,773 2,690 2,400 2,604 12,470 (1) Hotel program assumes a 250 room hotel in Phase 2 (Year 6-10), and a 300 room hotel in Phase 4 (Year 16-20) (2) Other uses include civic, education, event space, public recreational infrastructure, healthcare and safety facilities

Table 10: WeTown Phasing Plan Summary

The result will be a Mixed-Use Hi-Tech Centre that can accommodate approximately 30,000 residents, generate 15,000 new hi-tech sector jobs along with 3,000 additional jobs in existing industries.

In addition to the anticipated employment and population growth, and associated benefits, WeTown is poised to set an example for sustainable urban development and the establishment of an intelligent community. The design concept of a self-contained community at WeTown offers the opportunity to achieve the targeted mode shift from single occupancy vehicles to other sustainable modes including walking, cycling and transit. The use of local materials, integrated stormwater management, waste management, and green building practices will further reinforce WeTown as a model of sustainability.

For WeTown to be successful, the City of Abbotsford and Auguston Town Development Inc. must collaborate on a shared vision for the community.

80 | The City of Abbotsford needs to:

• Support this innovative approach to sustainable urban development

• Support a new Mixed Use Hi-Tech Centre land use designation in the OCP

• Take into account the WeTown vision in formulating the McKee Peak Neighbourhood Plan

• Recognize that WeTown will generate population growth above and beyond that which is planned for in the OCP

• Recognize that WeTown will develop in a complementary rather than competitive manner to other Mixed Use Centres in Abbotsford

• Recognize that WeTown embodies the 6 critical success factors of an intelligent community as advocated by the Intelligent Community Forum and will help the City grow into a smart city.

Auguston Town Development Inc. needs to:

• Continue to refine the WeTown concept to best achieve the vision and objectives of Abbotsford’s OCP

• Work with the City, the community, and stakeholders to ensure a development that balances conflicting interests

• Develop a new hi-tech centre of international significance, right here in Abbotsford

• Market WeTown and Abbotsford to attract large multinationals, international education and research institutions, and prospective residents

• Explore environmental constraints in the proposed development area and refine the concept to mitigate potential environmental impacts

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 81 At full build-out, WeTown will have become an integral part of Abbotsford’s network of Mixed Use Centres, stitching together the urban fabric and bringing vitality to the eastern reaches of the City. As a bookend for development in east Abbotsford, WeTown will contribute a residential and employment supply that will ensure the urban development boundary remain where it is and that valuable agricultural lands are preserved for agriculture. With a world-class hi-tech hub in place, Abbotsford will not only showcase an intelligent community, but also act as a magnet for investment, as well as become one of the world’s most desirable place to live, work, play, visit and start a business.

82 | WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 83 8 Appendix A - Land Use Marketability Study

82 | WETOWN LAND USE MARKETABILITY STUDY

ABBOTSFORD, BC

URBANICS CONSULTANTS LTD. WETOWN LAND USE MARKETABILITY STUDY

ABBOTSFORD, BRITISH COLUMBIA

Prepared for: AUGUSTON TOWN DEVELOPMENT INC.

July, 2018

Prepared by: Urbanics Consultants Ltd. Suite 1207 - 409 Granville Street, Vancouver, B.C., V6C 1T2 TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1

1.0 INTRODUCTION 5

2.0 ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS 7

2.1 PROVINCE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA 7 2.2 CITY OF ABBOTSFORD 12

3.0 SITE AND AREA ASSESSMENT 20

3.1 CITY OF ABBOTSFORD 20 3.2 WETOWN SITE OVERVIEW 21

4.0 ABBOTSFORD DEVELOPMENT TRENDS 25

4.1 RESIDENTIAL MARKET TRENDS & SUPPLY 25 4.2 EMPLOYMENT SPACE MARKET TRENDS & SUPPLY 31 4.3 RETAIL MARKET TRENDS & SUPPLY 35 4.4 HOTEL MARKET TRENDS & SUPPLY 38 4.5 SUMMARY 40

5.0 BASE CASE LAND USE FORECAST 41

5.1 RESIDENTIAL 41 5.2 OFFICE 43

6.0 THE WETOWN CONCEPT – EMPLOYMENT AND ACCLERANT USES 45

6.1 MAJOR EMPLOYER SPACE 45 6.2 UNIVERSITY 49 6.3 RESEARCH INSTITUTE 51 6.4 BUSINESS INCUBATION COMPLEX 53 6.5 SUMMARY 55

7.0 EMPLOYMENT-BASED LAND USE FORECAST 56

8.0 ACCERLANT PROGRAMMING LAND USE FORECAST 59

9.0 RESIDENTIAL LAND USE FORECAST 63 10.0 RETAIL LAND USE FORECAST 66

10.1 RETAIL OPPORTUNITY ANALYSIS 67

11.0 HOTEL LAND USE FORECAST 72

12.0 OTHER MAJOR LAND USES 74

13.0 LAND USE CONCEPT SUMMARY 76

14.0 MARKETING AND IMPLEMENTATION 77

APPENDIX 1 – THE FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION 80

APPENDIX 2 – CANADIAN R&D COMPETITIVENESS 83

APPENDIX 3 – BRITISH COLUMBIA’S TECH SECTOR 87

APPENDIX 4 – MAJOR STEM RESEARCH FIELDS 91

APPENDIX 5 - SPECIALIZED UNIVERSITIES WITH HIGH-TECH OFFICE SPACE- CASE STUDY SELECTION 96

APPENDIX 6 - TOP 100 GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY FIRMS 104 List of Figures

Figure 1 – Unemployment Rates ...... 8 Figure 2 – British Columbia Development Activity ...... 9 Figure 3 – British Columbia Housing Starts ...... 10 Figure 4 - Abbotsford Map ...... 12 Figure 5 - Abbotsford Local Health Area Map ...... 17 Figure 6 - Historical & Projected Population ...... 18 Figure 7 - Site Context Map ...... 22 Figure 8 - WeTown Context Map ...... 23 Figure 9 - Abbotsford In Stream Residential Applications ...... 30 Figure 10 - Abbotsford Office Vacancy Rate ...... 32 Figure 11 - Abbotsford Office Gross Rent Per Square Foot ...... 32 Figure 12 - Abbotsford In-Stream ICI Applications ...... 33 Figure 13 - Abbotsford Retail Vacancy Rate ...... 35 Figure 14 - Major Shopping Centre Supply ...... 36 Figure 15- Abbotsford Hotel Supply ...... 39

List of Tables

Table 1 – British Columbia Economic Forecast ...... 7 Table 2 - Employment Forecast by Industry ...... 11 Table 3 - City of Abbotsford Historical Building Activity ...... 14 Table 4 – Employment by Industry ...... 15 Table 5 - Employment Forecast by Industry ...... 16 Table 6 - City of Abbotsford Housing Starts ...... 26 Table 7 - Housing Affordability...... 27 Table 8 - U District Profile ...... 28 Table 9 - Abbotsford Major Active Residential Projects ...... 29 Table 10 - Office Space Inventory...... 31 Table 11 - Abbotsford Industrial Land Supply...... 34 Table 12 - Abbotsford Retail Inventory ...... 35 Table 13 – Major Shopping Centre Supply ...... 36 Table 14 - Abbotsford Hotel Supply ...... 38 Table 15 - Hotel Occupancy Rates ...... 39 Table 16 - Average Daily Room Rates ...... 40 Table 17 - Base Case Residential Forecast ...... 42 Table 18 - Base Case Office Space Forecast ...... 43 Table 19 – Base Case Lower Mainland-Southwest Office Space Forecast ...... 44 Table 20 – Local Technology Firms – Outside Vancouver ...... 47 Table 21 - Technology Oriented Smaller Cities ...... 48 Table 22 - Specialized Research & Technology Universities ...... 50 Table 23 - Asian Research & Technology Universities ...... 51 Table 24 - Field-Specific Technology Institutes ...... 52 Table 25 - Tech Incubator Facilities ...... 54 Table 26 - Office Forecast Summary ...... 57 Table 27 - Office Forecast Low Scenario ...... 57 Table 28 - Office Forecast High Scenario ...... 58 Table 29 - Accelerant Uses Forecast Summary ...... 60 Table 30 - Accelerant Uses Forecast Summary Low Scenario ...... 61 Table 31 - Accelerant Uses Forecast Summary High Scenario ...... 62 Table 32 - On-Site Residential Forecast Summary ...... 63 Table 33 - On-Site Residential Forecast Summary Low Scenario ...... 64 Table 34 - On-Site Residential Forecast Summary High Scenario ...... 64 Table 35 - BC Per Capita Retail Expenditure Derivation ...... 67 Table 36 - Retail Market Demand – Department Store Type Merchandise ...... 69 Table 37 - Retail Market Demand - Convenience Retail ...... 70 Table 38 - Retail Forecast Summary ...... 71 Table 39 - Hotel Market Demand Fraser Valley RD & Metro Vancouver ...... 72 Table 40 - Hotel Market Demand WeTown Site ...... 73 Table 41 - Other Uses ...... 74 Table 42 - Phasing Plan Summary ...... 76 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Urbanics Consultants Ltd. has been retained to conduct a land use marketability study for the proposed WeTown development, located in the Auguston neighbourhood of northeast Abbotsford on Sumas Mountain. WeTown is envisioned to be a complete community, providing the built space and amenities required to support 18,000 on-site jobs and 30,000 on-site residents. The goal is to establish WeTown and Abbotsford as a hub for high-tech multinational firms and local start ups, in the context of a highly livable and sustainable new community.

The following provides a summary of key findings:

BC AND THE FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION

Globally and locally, economies are undertaking a rapid shift towards knowledge-based activities of an increasingly advanced nature. The World Economic Forum has characterized this as a “Fourth Industrial Revolution”, and observed that its evolution resembles exponential growth more closely than linear growth. The 4th Industrial Revolution is characterized by the integration of digital, physical, and biological systems into a series of applications that promise to deliver dramatic productivity and gains in living standards.

Although there is significant upside potential, there is also the risk of a region failing to position itself as a centre of production during the emergence of new economic activities. Through attracting large employers and world-class research work, WeTown aims to establish a critical mass of high-tech economic activities, of a scale that will establish the Fraser Valley region as a prosperous and globally relevant centre for the types of activities prevalent in the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

1 ECONOMIC INDICATOR OVERVIEW

After experiencing spectacular growth throughout 2016 and 2017, BC’s economic outlook remains positive, though unlikely to maintain the same high growth rate. Economists are expecting real GDP growth of 2.4% in 2018 and 1.9% in 2019 as the real estate sector cools and the economy is constrained by operating at full employment, combined with uncertainty generated by the United States. However, output and population growth are expected to continue into the foreseeable future, implying a favorable climate for residential and commercial real estate development.

Abbotsford’s economic indicators are also generally positive, with 2.5% GDP growth anticipated for 2018 as export demand remains strong. Conservative estimates of annual growth rates over a medium-term time horizon are 0.96% for population (BC Stats) and 1.12% for employment. Abbotsford’s economy is characterized relative to the region as having a higher share of employment concentrated in manufacturing and agriculture, but a lower share in technology and professional services. Uncertainty created by local policy changes often poses a risk to local growth and investment climate status, however Abbotsford has a long track record of electing officials in favor of economic development.

LAND USE BASE CASE

Based on BC Stats’ most recent population forecasts and baseline employment forecasts detailed in Sections 2.1 and 2.2, Urbanics derived base case residential and office space absorption estimates for the WeTown site. The findings make clear that if the project is to proceed on the scale as envisioned, a critical mass of employment activity is a precondition. Indeed, without placing an emphasis on attracting catalyst or ‘accelerant’ tenants such as industry-leading corporate offices, a post-secondary school, a research institution, and/or a business incubation facility, only a comparatively modest development program can be justified from the absorption of forecast growth. K

EMPLOYMENT & ACCELERANT USES

Section 6.0 focuses on a series of employment and accelerant uses, centred on a high-technology theme. It identifies that the single most important component of WeTown’s success is the attraction of a large, highly recognized office tenant in the technology field, which serves as a catalyst for attracting subsequent tenants and spurring additional development. The importance of other accelerant activities is discussed, highlighting the creation of a high- technology employment and eduKcation cluster associated with emerging technological fields.

2 North America is replete with examples of technology clusters forming outside the downtown of metropolitan areas, often of a very similar distance as Abbotsford to Vancouver. In Metro Vancouver itself, numerous examples can be found of large technology firms opting to locate in more campus-like locations outside downtown Vancouver.

LAND USE FORECASTS

The notion of WeTown being a complete and self-sustaining community, providing a balance of employment, housing, retail, and recreational land uses is highlighted in Sections 7 through 13. Preliminary land use forecasts for employment, residential, retail, hotel and other major land uses have been conducted by the consultant. All figures are based on the assumption that market conditions remain favorable, economic trends remain conducive to the proposed tenant mix, and that a marketing program will be of sufficient strength to attract the quantity of firms and residents at the scale envisioned. The medium scenario is considered the expected or anticipated scenario. Additionally, a high and a low scenario are presented in order to illustrate the magnitude of a 15% +/- deviation in warranted office space, and associated impacts on residential demand.

If all assumptions are met and a marketing plan is successfully executed, WeTown at full build- out has the potential to host upwards of 18,000 jobs, 28,800 residents, and a total of 15,500,000 sq. ft. of space across all uses. The preliminary Phasing Plan below provides the proposed breakdown by product type and denotes absorption of space in increments of 5 years over a study period of 20 years.

TOTAL BUILDING AREA (sq. ft.) 5,560,000 3,540,000 2,950,000 3,450,000 15,500,000 TOTAL CUMULATIVE BUILDING AREA (sq. ft.) 5,560,000 9,100,000 12,050,000 15,500,000 Number of Residents By Phase 10,900 6,052 5,317 6,512 28,781 Number of Workers By Phase 6,218 4,189 3,654 3,788 17,849

(1) Hotel program assumes a 250 room hotel in Phase 2 (Year 6-10), and a 300 room hotel in Phase 4 (Year 16-20) (2) Other uses include civic, education, event space, public recreational infrastructure, healthcare and safety facilities

MARKETING AND IMPLEMENTATION

The report outlines the strengths of Canada, BC, and Abbotsford as advantageous jurisdictions for large technology employers and institutions to establish major operations: Canada is exceptionally well educated and open to immigration; BC is a rapidly emerging global financial centre and desirable destination for skilled migrants; Abbotsford boasts substantially less costly housing than the bulk of the Lower Mainland. In addition to the compelling features of WeTown’s

3 proposed built form, the highlighting of exceptional governance, living standards, and climate of openness afforded by all jurisdictions will form a critically important component of WeTown’s attraction to prospective world-class tenants.

4 1.0 INTRODUCTION

In March 2018, Urbanics Consultants Ltd. was retained to conduct a land use marketability study for the proposed WeTown development concept, located in the Auguston neighbourhood of northeast Abbotsford on Sumas Mountain. In response to evolving demographic, workforce, and economic trends, the WeTown concept proposes a substantial increase in residential and commercial floorspace above the 2016 OCP area designation. The consultant has been asked to provide an economic rationalization for the scale of the WeTown concept: 6.6 million sq. ft. of residential floorspace, 2.7 million sq. ft. of office and hotel space, 1.8 million sq. ft. of retail, and 2.7 million sq. ft. of flex space. In total, the aim of the concept is to provide space for 18,000 jobs and 30,000 residents.

Given that the scale of the WeTown high-tech hub development concept is unprecedented for both Abbotsford and the Lower Mainland of British Columbia, particular emphasis in Urbanics’ analysis was placed on the factors that are key to the success of realizing the WeTown vision. Subject to the assumptions and conditions discussed throughout, the analysis outlined in this report will show that a development of this scale is attainable and the forecasted jobs and residents at a full build-out scenario is close to what the Developer has originally anticipated – 18,000 new jobs created and 29,000 residents living in WeTown by year 20 of the development.

Data and statistics for the report was sourced from a variety of government (federal, provincial, regional, municipal) and private sector sources (real estate boards, commercial brokerages, subscription-based data services).

As with all market studies of this nature, a number of forecasts and assumptions regarding the state of the economy, the state of future competitive influences, and population projections have had to be made. These forecasts are made with great care and are based on the most recent and reliable information available. While specific assumptions may be noted throughout the report, the following general assumptions also apply:

x Real G.D.P. growth and other economic indicators for the area will not significantly differ from the projections indicated in the study over the course of the study period.

x Actual population growth rates will occur relatively consistent with those employed in this study.

x No unforeseen economic or political events will occur within the study period on a national, provincial, or local level, which would significantly alter the outcomes of the study’s analyses. Short-term fluctuations are likely to occur, but long-term gradual growth rates should prevail.

x The demand and market analyses are based on estimates, assumptions and other information developed from research of the market and knowledge of the industry.

5 Should these or any of the other assumptions noted in this study be undermined by the course of future events, the consultant recommends that the study’s findings be re-examined.

2.0 ECONOMIC BASE ANALYSIS

The economic vitality of the national, provincial and local economies is an important consideration in forecasting market demand potential for various land uses. Economic conditions bear strong correlation with potential buying power of relevant target markets, and the study of local economic conditions will provide insights on the health of the region in terms of market strength.

Particularly for a project that places a heavy emphasis on commercial space, a solid understanding of British Columbia’s economic base is of key importance.

2.1 PROVINCE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA

After growing by 3.9% in 2017, the fastest rate since the 2008 recession, the provincial economy is expected to post slower growth through 2018 before cooling further in 2019. TD Economics expects 2.4% growth over 2018, still outperforming the national forecast of 2.0%. However in 2019, BC’s growth performance is expected to converge with the national average, with anticipated growth of 1.9% compared to 1.8% nationally. The gradual slowdown is being driven primarily by declining residential investment, which according to RBC has accounted for 1/3rd of BC’s economic growth in recent years. Although strong fundamentals remain in place, higher interest rates, new mortgage rules, and an array of provincial policies have resulted in the significant drop in residential sales evident in Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley.

Table 1 – British Columbia Economic Forecast BRITISH COLUMBIA ECONOMIC FORECAST [ Annual average % change, unless otherwise noted ] 2017* 2018 2019 Real GDP 3.9 2.4 1.9 Nominal GDP 6.2 4.2 3.7 Employment 3.7 0.6 0.5 Unemployment Rate (%) 5.1 4.8 4.9 Consumer Price Index 2.1 2.5 2.1 Retail Sales 9.3 2.7 3.5 Housing Starts (000's) 43.5 39.1 33.8 Existing Home Prices 3.4 0 3.1 Home Sales -7.5 -20.3 6.2 * 2017 numbers are actual Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC, CREA, forecast by TD Economics

Employment is expected to remain high, despite slowing job growth. A stubbornly tight labour market is one of the leading factors putting the brakes on economic growth, with unemployment expected to remain between 4.9-5.1% through 2019 – a level economists considered to be at or even beyond full employment.

Figure 1 – Unemployment Rates

After a strong 2017 where healthy global markets propelled growth across BC’s main export sectors, exports have been flat through the first quarter of 2018, mainly due to lagging performance from lumber (feeling the impact of US tariffs) and energy. The uncertainty faced by the Trans Mountain expansion project is expected to slow further investment in the oil and gas sector, while US tariffs on aluminum and steel combined with NAFTA uncertainty are likely to dampen manufacturing and industrial investment. On the upside, global commodity prices and continued strong US economic performance are likely to maintain or slightly increase export output through the remainder of the year.

DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY

Development activity is another important marker of economic health. Here too, BC’s exceptional economic performance over the past year is evident. As shown below, BC building permit values have been on a steady upward trend since hitting a low in 2009, while 2017 figures reveal a spike of nearly 18% over 2016, driven primarily by an increase in residential building permit values of 15% to over $11 billion CAD. Industrial permit values surged by 46%, commercial values grew by 13%, and institutional/governmental permits grew by 42%.

Bank economists do not see the present level of residential construction activity sustaining itself, so residential permit values may slip in 2019 and beyond. The timing of LNG Canada’s building will represent a massive surge in value for the year it occurs in, but may exacerbate the tight labour market.

Figure 2 – British Columbia Development Activity

PROVINCE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA - HISTORICAL BUILDING ACTIVITY Building Permit Values by Activity Structure (In $ Thousands) Period 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Average (2007-2017) Residential $8,611,723 $6,899,289 $4,491,075 $6,705,888 $6,113,406 $6,711,921 $6,868,193 $7,347,640 $9,445,370 $9,863,311 $11,375,065 $7,675,716 Industrial $323,893 $292,221 $245,157 $241,608 $357,707 $883,060 $425,559 $354,651 $565,875 $449,626 $658,098 $436,132 Commercial $2,647,905 $2,623,509 $1,757,192 $1,786,992 $1,970,571 $2,294,809 $1,896,779 $2,213,014 $2,301,397 $2,161,275 $2,438,320 $2,190,160 Institutional & Governmental $961,170 $762,136 $1,136,461 $989,321 $808,083 $869,793 $785,573 $1,161,410 $812,591 $780,812 $1,109,663 $925,183

Total $12,544,691 $10,577,155 $7,629,885 $9,723,809 $9,249,767 $10,759,583 $9,976,104 $11,076,715 $13,125,233 $13,255,024 $15,581,146 $11,227,192

Residential 69% 65% 59% 69% 66% 62% 69% 66% 72% 74% 73% 68% Industrial 3% 3% 3% 2% 4% 8% 4% 3% 4% 3% 4% 4% Commercial 21% 25% 23% 18% 21% 21% 19% 20% 18% 16% 16% 20% Institutional & Governmental 8% 7% 15% 10% 9% 8% 8% 10% 6% 6% 7% 8%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

$18,000,000

$16,000,000

$14,000,000

$12,000,000 Institutional & Governmental $10,000,000 Commercial Industrial $8,000,000 Residential $6,000,000

$4,000,000

$2,000,000

$0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Source: Statistics Canada, Produced by BC Stats

HOUSING

After a record-setting 2017, housing starts are expected by the CMHC and BC Real Estate Association to post declines in 2018 and 2019 – from 41,091 to between 32,000 and 34,500. Over the same period, total MLS sales are expected to decline from a peak of 103,700 in 2017 to 94,000, still well-above the past decade’s average of 84,800.

Slowing job growth, rising mortgage costs, and lower interprovincial migration levels (as Alberta’s economy returns to rapid growth levels) are the drivers of BC’s return to a more balanced housing market. Upward pressure on prices is expected to loosen as starts from the prior several years of elevated building activity convert into completions; price increases in 2018 and 2019 should therefore converge with inflation.

Continued job and population growth, coupled with limited supply, will mean that the Lower Mainland rental market will continue to be characterized by low vacancy rates and rising rents.

Only modest increases to the vacancy rate are expected, rising to 1.2% in 2019 from 0.8% in 2017.

Figure 3 – British Columbia Housing Starts

BRITISH COLUMBIA HOUSING STARTS

45,000 40,000

35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 *Uncertainty is reflected by the start forecast range: 34,500-37,500 for 15,0002018, and 32,000-34,500 for 2019. 10,000 5,000 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 (F)* 2019 (F)*

Single-detached Multiples (F): Forecast

*2018 forecast range is 34,500-37,500; 2019 range is 32,000-34,500 Prepared by: Urbanics Consultants Ltd. Source: CMHC Housing Market Outlook - Fall 2017, BC Region Highlights

FORECAST EMPLOYMENT GROWTH – LOWER MAINLAND-SOUTHWEST

Table 2 summarizes forecast employment growth to 2038 for the Lower Mainland-Southwest Economic Region, which consists of Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley Regional District. The region represents a majority of British Columbia’s population and economic output. Figures are based on 2017 BC Labour Market Outlook projections, in turn derived from Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey data.

Over 430,000 jobs are expected to be added (net) over the next 20 years, representing a 28% expansion of the labour force over 2018 levels. Sectors with anticipated strong growth include professional and technical services, transportation and warehousing, retail and trade, information and cultural industries, finance and insurance, accommodation and food services, and firm management.

Table 2 - Employment Forecast by Industry

EMPLOYMENT FORECAST BY INDUSTRY - LOWER MAINLAND-SOUTHWEST ECONOMIC REGION INDUSTRY BY 2-DIGIT NAICS CODE 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 11 Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting 24246 24808 25183 25563 25949 21 Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction 5659 5784 6079 6389 6715 22 Utilities 7580 7664 7780 7897 8016 23 Construction 118044 118160 121144 124203 127339 31-33 Manufacturing 100619 103057 105134 107254 109416 41 Wholesale trade 62619 65683 68352 71131 74022 44-45 Retail trade 173113 179258 185620 192209 199031 48-49 Transportation and warehousing 89399 96783 104777 113432 122802 51 Information and cultural industries 55187 61110 67140 73766 81045 52 Finance and insurance 72808 77282 82032 87074 92425 53 Real estate and rental and leasing 40217 44098 47040 50178 53525 54 Professional, scientific and technical services 145224 153992 169188 185883 204226 55 Management of companies and enterprises 3619 4123 4552 5026 5549 56 Administrative and support, waste management and remediation services 71418 74987 79989 85325 91018 61 Educational services 114191 120134 124398 128814 133386 62 Health care and social assistance 162999 180141 199867 221753 246036 71 Arts, entertainment and recreation 36829 40782 44807 49228 54086 72 Accommodation and food services 133427 146878 156677 167129 178278 81 Other services (except public administration) 72107 77298 82863 88828 95222 91 Public administration 65239 69798 74087 78640 83473 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 1554545 1651820 1756710 1869721 1991559 CUMULATIVE GROWTH 97275 104889 113011 121838 2018-2038 FORECAST EMPLOYMENT GROWTH 437014 Source: BC Labour Market Outlook 2017, Statistics Canada, Urbanics Consultants

SUMMARY

BC’s economic outlook remains positive. It would have been unrealistic to expect the continuation of 2016 and 2017’s spectacular growth as the economy hits full employment and headwinds from the United States create uncertainty for business investment. However, output and population growth are expected to continue into the foreseeable future, implying a favourable climate for a long-term commercial and residential real estate investment project.

2.2 CITY OF ABBOTSFORD

Abbotsford is situated in the central Fraser Valley, 68 kilometres east of Vancouver. With a population of 141,397 (Statistics Canada 2016 Census), Abbotsford is the fifth largest City by population in the province and is generally bounded by the Township of Langley to the west, the Fraser River and District of Mission to the north, the City of Chilliwack to the east, and the United States border to the south.

Please refer to Figure 4 for a locational map of Abbotsford.

Figure 4 - Abbotsford Map

Subject site

Economic growth prospects remain positive over the short-term. According to the Conference Board of Canada, Abbotsford-Mission’s real GDP growth is forecast is 2.5% in 2018, as compared to 1.9% in 2017. The goods-producing sector is anticipated to remain healthy due to growing business opportunities, a lower Canadian dollar, and a solid US economy. A slower services

12 sector is anticipated over the next several years, particularly in wholesale and retail trade, as shoppers hold back in the face of rising interest rates. 2017 was a particularly strong year for construction activity as referenced in the following sections.

DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY

Table 3 provides a depiction of the City of Abbotsford’s building development activity from 2007 to 2017. The value of permits has been collected for each of residential, commercial, industrial and institutional/government.

Similar to provincial statistics, permit values in the City of Abbotsford show 2017 as a record year, with values more than doubling from 2016. This was largely fueled by residential permits which comprised three-quarters of permit activity - as compared to the period average of 58%.

Historic trends depict that industrial permits comprise a marginal amount of total permit values. Institutional and commercial permits have been shown to fluctuate greatly on a year-over-year basis.

Overall, the City has recorded an annual average of $211 million in total permit values between 2007 and 2017. Abbotsford’s residential activity has comprised 58% of the City’s total average building permit value over this period, with the next major development class being commercial at 24% of total permit values.

13 Table 3 - City of Abbotsford Historical Building Activity

CITY OF ABBOTSFORD - HISTORICAL BUILDING ACTIVITY Building Permit Values by Activity Structure (In $ Thousands) Period 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Average (2007-2017) Residential $118,258 $150,303 $60,349 $73,785 $69,919 $74,485 $72,622 $80,695 $162,027 $155,677 $317,308 $121,403 Industrial $18,742 $12,463 $19,150 $13,506 $15,261 $14,955 $12,278 $35,739 $26,681 $25,109 $49,422 $22,119 Commercial $77,371 $100,103 $29,901 $45,076 $127,849 $18,696 $22,507 $21,381 $38,199 $22,655 $43,133 $49,716 Institutional & Governmental $19,229 $28,658 $8,157 $35,833 $10,779 $15,023 $15,704 $18,025 $23,486 $741 $15,130 $17,342

Total $233,600 $291,527 $117,557 $168,200 $223,808 $123,159 $123,111 $155,840 $250,393 $204,182 $424,993 $210,579

Residential 51% 52% 51% 44% 31% 60% 59% 52% 65% 76% 75% 58% Industrial 8% 4% 16% 8% 7% 12% 10% 23% 11% 12% 12% 11% Commercial 33% 34% 25% 27% 57% 15% 18% 14% 15% 11% 10% 24% Institutional & Governmental 8% 10% 7% 21% 5% 12% 13% 12% 9% 0% 4% 8%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

$450,000

$400,000

$350,000

$300,000

$250,000

$200,000

$150,000 Permit Values ($1000's) Values Permit

$100,000

$50,000

$0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Residential Industrial Commercial Institutional & Governmental

Source: Statistics Canada, Produced by BC Stats

INDUSTRY & EMPLOYMENT

Abbotsford is noted as the Agriculture Capital of Canada. It is renowned for high quality berries, produce and poultry. Indeed, 70.6% of Abbotsford’s land area is within the Agricultural Land Reserve.

The agricultural industry also has considerable economic spinoff through all sectors of the economy. In addition to agriculture, Abbotsford’s economy is also fueled by the manufacturing and aerospace sectors. The development and recent renovation of Abbotsford’s International Airport (YXX) has opened up opportunities for a new wave of aviation-based industry as well as opportunities for the airport to attract new customers and tenants. In 2017 YXX experienced record setting growth in passenger numbers. A total of 677,653 passengers were serviced in 2017, an increase of 27.7% over 2016 counts (530,643 passengers). This growth was fueled by the arrival of Flair Airlines' service to Edmonton, Hamilton and Winnipeg, and Air Canada Rouge's seasonal service to Toronto. Near term passenger growth is also anticipated to climb with the

14 arrival of low-cost carriers Swoop and Canada Jetlines. The target is to reach 1 million passengers by 2020.

In addition to the International Airport, the University of the Fraser Valley and the Abbotsford Regional Hospital and Cancer Centre (ARHCC) are two additional economic engines of the City. In fact, a conservative estimate of the University’s overall economic impact on the Fraser Valley is half a billion dollars annually, with enrolment of over 15,000 students per year.

HISTORIC AND PRESENT EMPLOYMENT PATTERNS

Abbotsford’s major industry sectors include Retail trade; Health care and social assistance; manufacturing; Construction; Transportation and Warehousing; and Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting. Combined, these sectors totaled 56% of the City's and 54% of the Region's labour force in 2016.

As can be observed in Table 4, the City of Abbotsford has a higher percentage of the labour force in goods producing industries as compared to the Fraser Valley Region and to a much larger extent, the Lower Mainland. Indeed, Abbotsford has a much higher concentration of the labour force employed in Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting (7.6% as compared to 1.6% in the Lower Mainland), as well as Manufacturing (9.9% versus 6.4% in the Lower Mainland), and Transportation and Warehousing (8.4% versus 5.6% in the Lower Mainland).

Table 4 – Employment by Industry

Table 4 also highlights that Abbotsford’s tech industry is quite small relative to the Lower Mainland, with Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services constituting only 4.3% of

employment compared to 9.2% in the region as a whole. Most high-tech activities fall into this sector. Although there are some local Fraser Valley high-tech success stories, particularly in agricultural technology and UFV’s Automation + Robotics training program offered in Chilliwack, the Fraser Valley has thus far been unable to attract the types of large tech employers present in Metro Vancouver municipalities. By orienting the project design and programming towards attracting major tech employers, WeTown potentially presents an opportunity to establish the tech sector in the Fraser Valley at a vastly elevated scale compared to present levels. Appendixes 1- 3 highlight the importance of such a goal.

FORECAST EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

The table below summarizes employment forecasts for the City of Abbotsford to the year 2038.

Overall, the labour force is forecasted to increase by 25% over the 2018-2038 forecast period, with the greatest increases forecasted for the Management of companies and enterprises sector; Health care and social assistance industry sector; the Arts, entertainment and recreation industry sector; the Information and Cultural Industries sector; and the Professional, scientific and technical services sector.

Table 5 - Employment Forecast by Industry EMPLOYMENT FORECAST BY INDUSTRY - CITY OF ABBOTSFORD INDUSTRY BY 2-DIGIT NAICS CODE 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 11 Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting 5636 5767 5854 5942 6032 21 Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction 287 293 308 324 340 22 Utilities 236 239 242 246 250 23 Construction 7051 7058 7236 7419 7606 31-33 Manufacturing 7348 7526 7678 7832 7990 41 Wholesale trade 3004 3151 3279 3413 3551 44-45 Retail trade 7935 8217 8508 8810 9123 48-49 Transportation and warehousing 6385 6912 7483 8101 8770 51 Information and cultural industries 943 1045 1148 1261 1385 52 Finance and insurance 2081 2209 2344 2488 2641 53 Real estate and rental and leasing 1243 1363 1454 1551 1655 54 Professional, scientific and technical services 3232 3428 3766 4137 4546 55 Management of companies and enterprises 116 132 146 161 178 56 Administrative and support, waste management and remediation services 3268 3431 3660 3904 4165 61 Educational services 4523 4758 4927 5102 5283 62 Health care and social assistance 7480 8267 9172 10177 11291 71 Arts, entertainment and recreation 876 970 1065 1170 1286 72 Accommodation and food services 5337 5875 6267 6685 7131 81 Other services (except public administration) 4133 4431 4750 5092 5458 91 Public administration 3131 3350 3555 3774 4006 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 74246 78421 82844 87591 92688 CUMULATIVE GROWTH 4175 4423 4747 5098 2018-2038 FORECAST EMPLOYMENT GROWTH 18443 Source: BC Labour Market Outlook 2017, Statistics Canada, Urbanics Consultants

16 ABBOTSFORD POPULATION GROWTH

The following presents the historic and projected population figures for the Abbotsford Local Health Area as sourced from BC Stats. The Abbotsford Local Health Area generally follows the boundaries of the City of Abbotsford (please refer to Figure 5).

Figure 5 - Abbotsford Local Health Area Map

According to BC Stats, the 2017 population was 143,326, which represents 47% of the Fraser Valley Regional District's (FVRD’s) population. Abbotsford’s share of the FVRD population has remained relatively steady in recent years, averaging 48% share of the Region’s population between 2008 and 2017.

BC Stats population projections uses the Component/Cohort-Survival method. This method 'grows' the population from the latest base year estimate by forecasting births, deaths and migration by age. These forecasts are largely based on past trends.

BC Stats has projected that Abbotsford will grow at an average annual growth rate of 0.96%, corresponding to an additional 36,770 people between 2018 and 2041. Both the FVRD and the Province are projected to grow at slightly higher rates (1.14% and 1.01%, respectively) over this time period. It is important to note that these growth forecasts do not take into account any major

17 interventions. For example, the inclusion of one or more major catalyst land uses (i.e. a major head office campus, University campus, etc.).

Figure 6 - Historical & Projected Population

HISORICAL & PROJECTED POPULATION (1991-2041) ABBOTSFORD LOCAL HEALTH AREA 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 Abbotsford Population 89718 110118 123476 129982 137220 141746 143326 144996 146654 148322 149986 158362 166366 173788 180765 Avg. Annual Growth Rate 4.2% 2.3% 1.0% 1.1% 0.7% 1.1% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 0.9% 0.8%

200000 4.5%

180000 4.0%

160000 3.5%

140000 3.0%

120000 2.5% Abbotsford Population 100000 Abbotsford Avg. Annual Grwth Rate 2.0% BC Avg. Annual Grwth Rate 80000

1.5% 60000

1.0% 40000

20000 0.5%

0 0.0% 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Source: BC Stats, Sub-Provincial Population Projections

Abbotsford’s OCP is premised on reaching a population of 200,000 people, and expects that a medium growth scenario will result in the figure being reached by 2040. This represents growth of an additional 60,000 residents over present, compared with the BC stats estimate of ~37,000. The OCP also establishes a principle that growth should occur in a manner that maintains or raises the proportion of Abbotsford residents employed within the city – a pattern much harder to attain in light of the Agricultural Land Commission’s decision to deny the conversion of 497 acres of Agricultural Land Reserve lands to industrial use, which generally support a much greater density of jobs than agriculture.

As one of the largest non-ALR undeveloped parcels of land in Abbotsford, concentrating employment space at WeTown would be a means to ensure the balance of residents to jobs is maintained or enhanced, especially if the growth scenario of 60,000 new residents by 2040 is seen as desirable.

SUMMARY

In line with the rest of the province and region, Abbotsford enjoys a positive economic outlook. Based on normalized conditions (i.e. no major interventions), both population and employment growth are projected to remain steady, with average annual growth rates of 0.96% and 1.12%,

18 respectively. With moderate growth rates this demonstrates that attracting catalyst employment uses is key to WeTown’s success.

Abbotsford traditionally elects municipal officials who seek to facilitate economic growth, so the favourable economic and investment climate is not expected to endure unforeseen municipal policy shocks that would threaten the economic conditions necessary to justify long-term investments in the local economy.

3.0 SITE AND AREA ASSESSMENT

3.1 CITY OF ABBOTSFORD

With over 70% of the City's land designated as Agricultural Land Reserve (ALR), as well as containing a number of environmental land constraints imposed by steep mountainous terrain and riparian areas, densification is becoming increasingly important as the City continues to grow. An on-going challenge is to ensure that community policies and initiatives support a balanced economy while also encouraging retention and expansion of the City's agricultural production. The shift to a greater percentage of multi-family housing construction can be observed by the fact that in 1981, multi-family housing comprised 30% of housing stock, whereby 2016 it was 56.8%.

According to the City of Abbotsford, the City-wide zoning breakdown (current to 2014) is as follows:

x Agriculture: 71.2% x Residential: 16.0% x Industrial: 4.8% x Institutional: 3.3% x Parks: 3.2% x Commercial: 1.5%

In the Fraser Valley/Abbotsford context, the following section serves to provide an analysis of the Fraser Valley Region’s/Abbotsford’s perceived strengths, opportunities, and challenges in relation to the development of the WeTown project; A development that is reliant on achieving a critical mass of employment activity to sustain a complete, self-sufficient community.

Strengths x Growing region with a population approaching 300,000 (2016 Census). Between 2011 and 2016 census periods, the FVRD's growth rate (6.6%) was higher than that of Metro Vancouver (6.5%), as well as the BC average (5.6%). x Transportation network - Highway 1; Abbotsford International Airport; Rail lines x Established facilities and institutions - The expanding Abbotsford International Airport; University of the Fraser Valley (UFV); Abbotsford Regional Hospital and Cancer Centre (ARHCC); TRADEX trade show facility. x Affordability - Real estate pricing; land development; operating costs; utilities - in relation to Metro Vancouver x Fibre optic connectivity. x 62% of Abbotsford residents work within the City limits - Not just a bedroom community, there is a significant employment base in Abbotsford x Range of amenities, family friendly culture and other quality of life assets appeal to talent x Gateway to the vast recreational opportunities in the eastern Fraser Valley, and gateway to the Okanagan.

Opportunities x Land availability within the Urban Development Boundary – Examples: U District and WeTown - Opportunities for master planning accommodating complete communities. x Distance from Vancouver - Opportunity to create 'Bookend' employment centres. Abbotsford could become the eastern ‘bookend’ and act as an important ‘safety valve’, mitigating the otherwise continued urban sprawl associated with Metro Vancouver. x Potential opportunity for each of the major growth nodes of the City - Clearbrook, City Centre, Historic Downtown, McCallum, U District, and WeTown - to grow population and employment base in a complementary manner. WeTown has the potential to act as an accelerant to the continued development of other growth centres in the City.

Challenges x Municipalities across the Lower Mainland are vying to attract technology companies and start-ups. x While development opportunities are becoming scarcer as time progresses, there are still many opportunities in more centralized areas of Metro Vancouver. x The distance involved between the centre of existing Greater Vancouver business concentrations.

3.2 WETOWN SITE OVERVIEW

The WeTown site is located within the Auguston neighbourhood, located in north-east Abbotsford within the McKee community, on the western slope of Sumas Mountain. Auguston is an approximate 6 kilometre driving distance from downtown Abbotsford.

The entire Auguston neighbourhood is approximately 590 acres. The WeTown site area comprises approximately 140 acres (gross). Please refer to Figure 7 for a context map of the site area.

Figure 7 - Site Context Map

SITE CONTEXT MAP

Clayburn Creek North Arm

AUGUSTON

GAS WETOWN STORAGE Clayburn Creek FACILITY South Arm

GOLF COURSE RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT

Surrounding Land Uses:

Auguston is surrounded by an environmental reserve north, south and west of the site, with a naturalistic trail and several trail heads.

The lands beyond the reserve include:

North: Lands to the north of Auguston currently comprise undeveloped woodland and low-density rural housing.

West: South-west of Auguston is the Ledgeview Golf Course and a small relatively new residential development adjacent to the golf course. Further west of Auguston is the established residential area in the Old Clayburn community.

South: To the south is undeveloped woodland as well as a few relatively small residential developments (south of McKee Road).

East: To the south-east there is an existing quarry and gas-storage facility, and to the east remains undeveloped woodland and low-density rural housing.

The majority of the WeTown property is located south of McKee Road, with approximately 20 acres located on the north side of McKee Road. Please refer to Figure 8 which provides a general outline of the WeTown site area.

Preliminary calculations as provided by the client detail that WeTown’s developable area is approximately 91.5 acres. This may be subject to further refinement once more detailed site work

22 has been conducted in terms of topography constraints, including the steepness of the property, appropriate setbacks from water courses, any environmentally sensitive areas, etc.

Figure 8 - WeTown Context Map

WETOWN CONTEXT MAP

WeTown Master Plan (October 2017)

SITE CHARACTER & TOPOGRAPHY

Auguston is generally bounded by Dawson Road to the north, Upper Sumas Mountain Road to the east, Straiton Road and the convergence of the North and South Arms of Clayburn Creek to the west, and the Trans Mountain pipeline to the south.

The neighbourhood is situated on a central plateau, with steep wooded slopes to the north, west and south of the site down to Clayburn Creek. Topography can be described as varied and includes rolling open fields and steeply sloping ravines. The elevation of the Auguston site provides opportunities for views towards portions of the Cascade Range and McKee Peak. From the western edge of the site expansive views to the south and west towards downtown Abbotsford are possible. In the undeveloped land parcels, small clumps of Douglas Fir, Western Hemlock and Western Cedar trees are intermixed with deciduous species, including Bigleaf Maple and Red Alder with some Paper Birch. Wildlife in the area includes deer, bears, raptor birds, Mountain Beaver, Coho salmon, Cutthroat trout, and Course fish. The streams and stream banks contain

23 the richest diversity of plant and wildlife species. The site is traversed by a number of significant water courses and drainage channels, with the most significant being the northern and southern branches of Clayburn Creek, which traverse the site in an easterly/westerly direction.

NEIGHBOURHOOD DEMOGRAPHICS

Statistics Canada 2016 Census data for the Auguston neighbourhood reveals a population of approximately 2,100 in some 594 dwellings and an average household size of 3.5. Single family homes represent the dominant housing form to-date, comprising 76% of housing stock, with row housing comprising 19%. The average total income of households in the Auguston neighbourhood is $124,195 as compared to the City wide average of $88,983.

2016 census demographics for a wider site area, generally bounded by Dawson Street to the north, Sumas Mountain Road to the east, Lower Sumas Mountain to the south, and Whatcom Road/Old Clayburn Road to the west, reveals the following:

x 2016 Population: 8,107 x Dwellings: 2,441 x Housing Stock: 65% single family; 23% apartment or flat in a duplex; 10% row housing x Household Size: 3.3 x Average Household Total Income: $130,298

The wider site area experienced extensive growth and development between 2006 and 2011, growing by over 40% (2006 population of 5,502). Population growth between 2011 and 2016 was more moderate at an additional 209 residents and total population growth of 2.6%.

SUMMARY

The overall size and bucolic setting of the site positions it as an ideal candidate for the further exploration of the potential to host a complete self-sustaining community with major employment uses of a high-tech orientation.

Further analysis in terms of infrastructure, transportation and environmental impacts will need to be conducted on a site-wide basis.

4.0 ABBOTSFORD DEVELOPMENT TRENDS

The following undertakes an analysis of land use market trends and accompanying supply analyses for residential, office, industrial, retail and hospitality land uses. The outputs of which will be used to develop appropriate land use concepts and inform the land use demand analyses to follow.

4.1 RESIDENTIAL MARKET TRENDS & SUPPLY1

The first sub-section explores recent residential development trends in the City of Abbotsford.

HOUSING STARTS

Housing starts are considered to be a key indicator of economic strength and reflection of demand for housing units. Please refer to Table 6, which outlines the historical trends in housing starts by type for the years 2010 through 2017.

Similar to building permit statistics, 2017 was a record year, with 1,557 housing starts (a 67% increase over 2016 starts, and a 121% increase over 2015 starts). Apartment permits comprised the vast majority of housing starts in 2017 (69%). This is compared to the period average of 49%.

Single family starts have averaged 31% of total starts between 2010 and 2017. In 2017, there were 273 single family starts, comprising 17.5% of the total share. This is compared to 2010, when single family starts comprised 62% of total starts, with apartment starts comprising just 20%. The consultant foresees that as Abbotsford continues to grow, there will be an increasing demand for multi-family product in the coming years.

Overall, real estate professionals and bank economists do not see the present level of residential construction activity sustaining itself due to the combined forces of tougher mortgage rules, rising interest rates and increasing home prices. Thus, residential housing starts may slip in 2019 and beyond.

1 CMHC, Housing Market Information Portal; RBC Economics Research, Housing Trends and Affordability Report (April 5, 2018); Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board; Fraser Valley Real Estate Board; CMHC, 2017 Rental Market Report (October 2017); City of Abbotsford, Official Community Plan; City of Abbotsford Planning & Development Services, 2017 Fourth Quarter Report

Table 6 - City of Abbotsford Housing Starts

CITY OF ABBOTSFORD HOUSING STARTS 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Av e r age Single 261 152 135 121 126 297 321 273 211 Semi 0000201443 Row 75 135 88 91 65 154 209 204 128 Apartment 84 155 83 415 181 254 389 1076 330 All 420 442 306 627 374 705 933 1557 671

Single 62.1% 34.4% 44.1% 19.3% 33.7% 42.1% 34.4% 17.5% 31.4% Semi 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.4% Row 17.9% 30.5% 28.8% 14.5% 17.4% 21.8% 22.4% 13.1% 19.0% Apartment 20.0% 35.1% 27.1% 66.2% 48.4% 36.0% 41.7% 69.1% 49.2% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

City of Abbotsford Housing Starts 1800

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Single Semi Row Apartment

CMHC, Housing Mark et Information Portal

HOUSING AFFORDABILITY

The table below highlights the affordability of Abbotsford’s housing stock relative to other municipalities in Metro Vancouver, as measured by the MLS Benchmark prices and average monthly rents.

Housing affordability in the Vancouver area has been a top concern over the last several years. Indeed, according to RBC’s Housing Trends and Affordability Report (April 2018), the costs of owning a home at today’s prices would have represented 85.2% of a typical household’s income

in the fourth quarter of 2017. Other statistics point to the fact that in some of Vancouver’s neighbourhoods housing prices have increased by 141% in 10 years, compared to a 40% increase in the median household income. Given this, the BC government announced further housing policy initiatives to cool the market in its 2018 budget.

With Vancouver becoming increasingly unaffordable, more and more households are seeking options east of the core areas. From a general housing affordability standpoint, Abbotsford is enticing with prices much lower than other Metro Vancouver municipalities.

Table 7 - Housing Affordability

MLS® BENCHMARK HOME PRICES Vancouver Westside Vancouver Eastside Richmond Burnaby South Coquitlam Surrey Langley Abbotsford Detached $3,404,200 $1,544,100 $1,684,500 $1,675,800 $1,304,900 $1,117,500 $1,047,300 $825,300 Townhouse $1,302,200 $933,500 $839,000 $834,900 $701,600 $599,200 $524,400 $390,200 Apartment $841,700 $574,700 $684,100 $715,800 $543,600 $466,100 $453,000 $346,600 Source: Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board and Fraser Valley Real Estate Board

AVERAGE MONTHLY RENTS Vancouver Burnaby Richmond Tri Cities Surrey Langley Abbotsford 1 bedroom apartment $1,326 $1,101 $1,185 $1,005 $908 $975 $773 2 bedroom apartment $1,860 $1,381 $1,375 $1,221 $1,077 $1,340 $951 Townhouse $1,889 $1,724 $1,650 $1,606 $1,427 $1,437 $1,060* Source: CMHC 2017 Rental Market Report, October 2017 rents *includes Mission

NEIGHBOURHOOD PLANS

This section provides a summary of the City’s approved and upcoming Neighbourhood Plans and identified major growth nodes from the City’s Official Community Plan. This provides an indication of where major development is likely to occur in the coming years and the type of development envisioned for each of the centres.

U District:

Council recently gave final approval to the U District Neighbourhood Plan. Highlights from this Plan include:

x 310 acre site; current major uses include the University of the Fraser Valley (approximately 5,200 full-time students), and the Abbotsford Centre (major arena that sits 8,500). x Plan outlines potential for approximately 3,200 new dwelling units (adding some 5,925 additional residents). x A selection of multi-family product is proposed including apartments (4-6 storeys), row housing and townhomes. x The plan outlines densities for the ‘University Village’ and ‘Urban Centre-Mixed Use’ of 1.0 to 2.5 FSR, with heights a minimum of 4 storeys and a maximum of 6 storeys.

Table 8 - U District Profile

PROFILE: U-DISTRICT Gross area 310 acres 5,200 full-time students, 820 UFV size employees No. of existing businesses 40 Non-UFV workforce 340 employees Residential population at build-out 9700 Additional office/R&D space capacity 700,000 sq. ft. Additional university space capacity 600,000 sq. ft. Source: City of Abbotsford - UDistrict Vision and draft Neighbourhood Plan

City Centre:

Currently the City is in the process of developing the City Centre Neighbourhood Plan (CCNP). The City Centre is envisioned as “the centre of Abbotsford’s public, economic and cultural life”. The City is currently on Stage 3 of 4 and is developing the Draft Plan. The Abbotsford OCP outlines the City Centre land use designation to enable a mix of multifamily and commercial uses to strengthen the core of the city. Densities provided in the OCP range from 1.0 to 2.5 FSR and multi storey buildings will be accommodated with building heights to be clarified through the Neighbourhood Plan.

Other Urban Centres as identified in the OCP include Clearbrook, Historic Downtown and McCallum.

Growth distribution:

The OCP sets a target that 75% of new residential growth (approximately 45,000 new residents by 2040) is to be focused in centres and existing neighbourhoods. The most intensification is earmarked for the Urban Core (approximately 35,000 new residents), with 10,000 new residents in Existing Neighbourhoods. 25% of growth (~15,000 new residents) is slated to occur in new neighbourhoods. As WeTown and Auguston constitute the majority of developable new neighbourhood area, the vision of 29,000 new residents can be considered within the same order of magnitude as the OCP specification, especially considering the planned job growth at WeTown.

RESIDENTIAL SUPPLY

The following table provides an indication of the supply of major active residential developments in the City of Abbotsford. Focus is placed on multi-family projects and provides data in terms of sales, average unit sizes, and unit price ranges.

In the current market, townhome projects are the dominant form with nearly 400 units at an average dollars per sq. ft. price of $384. There is one high rise development project (The 26- storey, Mahogany at Mill Lake) that is approaching sell-out. Sales reportedly commenced in January of 2013 for the 157-unit tower. The average price per sq. ft. for the Mahogany development is $444.

Table 9 - Abbotsford Major Active Residential Projects

In-stream residential applications (under review and approved in principle) as collected from the City of Abbotsford Development Permit and Subdivision Applications reveals that in the fourth quarter of 2017 there was a total of 2,920 in-stream residential lots/units. 69% of these are multifamily and 31% single family.

As can be observed in Figure 9, applications tend to be clustered in central Abbotsford. Applications in the McKee neighbourhood include single family (approved in principle) and a townhome development that is under review.

Figure 9 - Abbotsford In Stream Residential Applications

ABBOTSFORD IN-STREAM RESIDENTIAL APPLICATIONS SINGLE FAMILY (LOTS), TOWNHOUSE (UNITS) & APARTMENT (UNITS)

City of Abbotsford Planning & Development Services, 2017 Fourth Quarter Report

In summary, while 2017 was an overall strong year for the Abbotsford residential market, the BC Real Estate Association (BCREA) forecasts declines in MLS unit sales across the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (-10.4%) and housing starts in Abbotsford CMA (-31.3%) in 2018. MLS average prices are anticipated to keep rising to $752,000 across all product types in 2018 (a 7.1% increase over 2017 average price of $701,842). A slowing economy, rising mortgage interest rates, tougher mortgage qualifications, foreign buyer tax, and an upward pressure on home prices are anticipated to slow the housing market in the short-term. In contrast, continued population growth and favourable demographics will continue to generate strong demand in the first-time buyer segment as millennials are entering their household forming years.

4.2 EMPLOYMENT SPACE MARKET TRENDS & SUPPLY

OFFICE SPACE

According to Co Star Realty Information Inc., the City of Abbotsford contains approximately 2 million square feet of office inventory. Abbotsford contains the majority of office space in the Region, comprising three-quarters of the office inventory.

Table 10 - Office Space Inventory

OFFICE SPACE INVENTORY City of Abbotsford Fraser Valley RD Greater Vancouver Office Inventory Existing SF 2,008,469 2,669,145 83,757,631 Under Construction SF 0 0 2,370,011 Gross Rent Per SF $24.03 $22.55 $37.53 Vacant SF 95,226 194,392 4,764,998 Vacancy Rate 4.70% 7.30% 5.70%

Co Star Realty Information Inc. (Accessed May 14, 2018)

Co Star reports a vacancy rate of 4.7%. Vacancy rates have been trending lower since the second quarter of 2017, when vacancy rates were approaching 9% (see Figure 10).

31 Figure 10 - Abbotsford Office Vacancy Rate

ABBOTSFORD OFFICE SPACE - VACANCY RATE

Co Star Realty Information Inc. (Accessed May 14, 2018)

Gross rent per square foot of office space in Abbotsford is considerably lower than Greater Vancouver ($24.03 in the City of Abbotsford, versus $37.53 in Greater Vancouver). Abbotsford rents are down slightly from the fourth quarter of 2017, but higher than in 2016 and much of 2017.

Figure 11 - Abbotsford Office Gross Rent Per Square Foot

ABBOTSFORD OFFICE SPACE - GROSS RENT PER SQUARE FOOT

Co Star Realty Information Inc. (Accessed May 14, 2018)

As of May 2018, Co Star data indicated no office developments were under construction in the entire Fraser Valley Region. This is compared to nearly 2.4 million sq. ft. of office space under construction in Greater Vancouver.

Large office developments constructed in 2010 and beyond in the City of Abbotsford include:

x The Correctional Services of Canada building on Gladys Avenue (73,000 sq. ft.) x The former grain elevator on Gladys Avenue (64,000 sq. ft.) x The Mark office condominium on South Fraser Way (18,000 sq. ft.) x The 6-storey Bank of Montreal office building on South Fraser Way (59,000 sq. ft.)

In terms of In-Stream applications as reported by the City of Abbotsford Planning and Development Services, as of the fourth quarter 2017, there was approximately 121,000 sq. ft. of commercial space under review and nearly 16,000 sq. ft. approved in principle. There is much more industrial space in the pipeline as observed in Figure 12.

Figure 12 - Abbotsford In-Stream ICI Applications

ABBOTSFORD IN-STREAM ICI APPLICATIONS INSTITUTIONAL, COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL FLOOR SPACE

City of Abbotsford Planning & Development Services, 2017 Fourth Quarter Report

Overall, the market for office space in Abbotsford can be considered ‘soft’ with little growth and demand. The availability of office space further west has hampered the demand for Abbotsford’s office space. However, as prices and rents continue to escalate in Metro Vancouver, Abbotsford is likely to become more desirable as tenants and owners seek opportunities further east of the core areas.

INDUSTRIAL SPACE

Industrial sales activity in the Fraser Valley saw record dollar volumes in 2017 as eastward migration accelerates. As industrial land costs and rental rates continue to escalate across Metro Vancouver, industrial owner-operators have been increasingly moving south of the Fraser River in search of expansion space and/or lower rental rates and prices.

According to Avison Young Summer 2018 Fraser Valley Industrial Report vacancy rates in the industrial markets remain at near-record lows at the end of the first quarter 2018. The Abbotsford industrial vacancy rate was reported at 1.8%. This is compared to Surrey at 1% vacancy, and Langley at 1.5%. In terms of average rental rates, Abbotsford is reportedly $9.17 psf as compared to the Metro Vancouver average of $10.91 psf.

Moving forward, both institutional and private investors are anticipating the continued appreciation of lease rates due to high land costs, tight vacancy and the availability of low-cost capital. An overall lack of new industrial lease product in the development pipeline is also signalling an ongoing rental rate appreciation.

The Abbotsford Industrial Land Capacity Analysis (February 2017 report prepared by Urban Systems) noted that if Abbotsford is to continue evolving in its role as a vital industrial market in the region, it will need to address its critical shortage of industrial floor area. The study concluded that most of Abbotsford’s City in the Country Plan (CICP) lands that are available for industrial development will only be of interest to smaller industrial end-users that can make use of smaller parcels.

Table 11 - Abbotsford Industrial Land Supply

DEVELOPED AND VACANT INDUSTRIAL LAND BY COMMUNITY (ha) VACANT LANDS SUMMARY (ha) Community Developed Vacant Total Category Area Abbotsford Centre 24.3 8.8 33.1 Vacant total 249.6 Aberdeen 22.8 11.3 34.1 Vacant less riparian setbacks 191 Babich 91.8 34.1 125.9 Vacant less riparian setbacks, >5% slope 86.4 Source: Urban Systems - Abbotsford Industrial Land Bradner - Mt. Lehman 24.3 55 79.3 Capacity Analysis Fairfield 17.8 6.1 23.9 Matsqui Prairie 1 0.6 1.6 Old Clayburn 3.1 3.5 6.6 South Poplar 346.3 129.6 475.9 Sumar Mountain 43.2 0 43.2 Sumar Prairie 4.7 0.3 5 West Townline 1.7 0 1.7 Whatcom 6.9 0.4 7.3 Total 587.9 249.7 837.6 Source: Urban Systems - Abbotsford Industrial Land Capacity Analysis

34 4.3 RETAIL MARKET TRENDS & SUPPLY

Abbotsford contains some 6.4 million square feet of retail inventory according to Co Star Realty Information Inc. Major shopping centres comprise approximately 40% of the total retail inventory (some 2.5 million square feet of retail space including the major centres of Sevenoaks, High Street, West Oaks, and Abbotsford Power Centre). More detail is provided on the major shopping centres in the next sub-section.

Table 12 - Abbotsford Retail Inventory ABBOTSFORD RETAIL INVENTORY Retail Inventory Existing SF 6,454,071 Under Construction SF 8,689 Net Rent Per SF $21.04 Vacant SF 196,011 Vacancy Rate 3.00% Co Star Realty Information Inc. (Accessed April 25, 2018)

Vacancy rates have been trending lower since 2017 and stood at 3.0% as of April 25, 2018 as reported by Co Star Realty (See Figure 13). Co Star reports Abbotsford’s net rent per square foot at $21.04, as compared to $32.31 in Greater Vancouver.

Figure 13 - Abbotsford Retail Vacancy Rate

ABBOTSFORD RETAIL SPACE - VACANCY RATE

Co Star Realty Information Inc. (Accessed April 25, 2018)

35 MAJOR RETAIL SUPPLY

Table 13 – Major Shopping Centre Supply

LIST OF MAJOR SHOPPING CENTRES IN ABBOTSFORD No. Name Address Year Opened Type GLA (s.f.) Anchor Tenants 1 Abbotsford Power 1201 Sumas Way 1998 Power Centre 223,288 Lowes (118,807 s.f.); Winners/Home Sense (51,982 s.f.); Centre Petsmart (22,583 s.f.); 2 Abbotsford Shopping 33655 Essendene Ave. 1977 Downtown Retail 43,561 Dollar Tree (17,720 s.f.) Centre 3 Abbotsford Village South Fraser Way & 1998 Community 100,000 Save-On-Foods (35,441 s.f.) Shopping Centre Sumas Way 4 Clayburn Centre 3033 Immel St. n/a Neighbourhood 63,040 Choices Markets (15,270 s.f.); Rexall Drug Stores 5 Clearbrook Town Square 32500 South Fraser Way 1988 Community 188,252 Safeway (55,724 s.f.); Staples (12,000 s.f.); GoodLife Fitness (25,359 s.f.) 6 McCallum Centre 33498 Bevan Ave. n/a Downtown Retail 70,978 Integrity Driving School; Fabric Land (5,980 s.f.) Mixed-Use 7 Sevenoaks Shopping 32900 South Fraser Way 1975 Regional 568,234 Hudson's Bay (132,062 s.f.); Independent Grocer (48,483 Centre s.f.); Best Buy (31,908 s.f.); Sport Chek (24,372 s.f.); CIBC (12,693 s.f.); Shoppers Drug Mart (11,457 s.f.); Gap (12,481 s.f.) 8 South Fraser Plaza 33550 South Fraser Way n/a Neighbourhood 43,524 Golden Dragon Restaurant; H&R Block

9 West Oaks Mall 32650 - 32700 South 1981 Community/ Power 271,000 Save On Foods (66,740 s.f.); Bed Bath and Beyond Fraser Way Centre (27,696 s.f.); London Drugs (27,298 s.f.); Michaels (22,127 s.f.); Party City (12,309 s.f.); Pier 1 Imports (10,100 s.f.); Atmosphere (8,382 s.f.) 10 Glenn Mountain Village 2596-2618 McMillan Rd. - n/a (recently Convenience 26,165 Scotiabank; M&M's Shopping Centre Old Yale Rd. & McMillan renovated) Rd. 11 Parallel Marketplace 1920 North Parallel Rd. 2010 Community 71,000 Save On Foods (35,792 s.f.); Bank of Montreal (4,903 s.f.); Whatcom Wine & Spirits (4,135 s.f.) 12 Sumas Mountain Village 2310 Whatcom Rd. 2011 Community 91,000 Save-On-Foods (40,000 s.f.); Shoppers Drug Mart (18,500 s.f.); Royal Bank (4,610 s.f.); TD Canada Trust (5,000 s.f.). 13 HighStreet 3122 Mt. Lehman Rd. 2013 Regional 600,000 Walmart Supercentre (151,200 s.f.); London Drugs (40,000 s.f.); Cineplex VIP Theatre (43,000 s.f.); Marshalls; Steve Nash Fitness 14 McCallum Junction 1884 McCallum Rd. 2016 Power Centre 130,000 Cabela's (70,000 s.f.); Visions Electronics (10,009 s.f.)

Source: Co Star Realty Information Inc.; Canadian Directory of Shopping Centres

Figure 14 - Major Shopping Centre Supply

Major retail shopping centres have historically been developed, and are heavily concentrated, in central Abbotsford along the main thoroughfare of South Fraser Way, slightly north of the Trans- Canada Highway. Some of the more recent retail developments have shifted to both the western and eastern edges of the City as Abbotsford continues to grow. Shape Properties High Street regional shopping complex opened in 2013 in west Abbotsford with exposure on the Trans- Canada Highway at Mt. Lehman Road. HighStreet contains approximately 600,000 square feet, including a Walmart Supercentre and a Cineplex VIP Theatre.

In the eastern end of the City, just north of the Trans-Canada Highway, two retail complexes have been developed since 2010. Shape Properties developed Parallel Marketplace in 2010 - an 11.5 acre, 70,000 square foot community shopping centre, anchored by a 35,800 square foot Save On Foods. It is situated at Lower Sumas Road and North Parallel Road with visibility from Highway 1. This community shopping centre is approximately 9.5 kilometres and a 14 to 16 minutes drive from Auguston.

The closest community shopping complex to WeTown is Sumas Mountain Village, developed by Cross Developments. Situated at 2310 Whatcom Road, Sumas Mountain Village opened in 2011 and is anchored by an approximately 40,000 square foot Save On Foods and an 18,000 square foot Shoppers Drug Mart. Sumas Mountain Village is approximately 7 kilometres (12 to 14 minutes drive) from Auguston.

In closer proximity to the subject site, currently, there are two small parcels of land zoned for commercial situated at the southwest and southeast corners of Whatcom Road and McKee Road; however, no applications for development have currently been made for these parcels.

As can be observed, the McKee and Sumas Mountain communities are largely under-served in terms of retail.

RETAIL GAPS & SUMMARY

As noted, currently there is a lack of retail supply in the north-east areas of Abbotsford. Should WeTown proceed as envisioned, a range of retail options would serve to meet the needs of on- site residents and employees, as well as the surrounding populations.

A particularly notable gap considering the agricultural focus of Abbotsford is the absence of a permanent venue for a public market, centred around a farmer’s market for produce grown by local Fraser Valley farms. Subject to further study regarding the optimal siting of a large public market, WeTown could emerge as a strong candidate for the construction of such a venue. Points in WeTown’s favour include the potential to custom design a purpose-built market hall, a (planned) dense critical mass of on-site workers and residents, and a younger + highly educated population that generally tends to exhibit a preference towards artisanal and local products.

Indeed, WeTown has the potential to create an exciting and unique retailing program that could potentially attract a wider population base. This would include not only convenience retail shops and services (such as grocery stores, pharmacy, personal care salon, dry cleaner, etc. to serve the local population), but also traffic-generating retail including a variety of restaurants/bars/eateries, entertainment uses, and department-store type uses (clothing, accessories, electronics, etc.). The retail demand component will be discussed in Section 10.

4.4 HOTEL MARKET TRENDS & SUPPLY

The hotel/accommodation supply inventory in Table 14 compares the relative size, rates, amenities and market position of each of the hotels found within the City. According to the consultant’s research Abbotsford contains 10 hotel properties with a combined room inventory of 866. The majority are chain operations with economical/standard quality market positions with star ratings of 2 and 3. Eight of the ten properties are in proximity to Highway 1, dispersed among four nodes. The newest hotel to be built is the Sandman Hotel Abbotsford Airport, at the Highway 1/Mt. Lehman Road interchange in west Abbotsford. This hotel is strategically located, with Highway exposure, and in proximity to the airport, Tradex, and HighStreet shopping centre.

Just over half of the properties contain meeting/conference facilities - the largest being the Quality Hotel and Conference Centre, which has capacity for 680 in theatre seating. Please refer to Table 14 and Figure 15.

These supply side factors will assist in the derivation of estimated hotel demand in the study area and for the subject site, as will be examined in a subsequent section.

Table 14 - Abbotsford Hotel Supply

38 Figure 15- Abbotsford Hotel Supply

The Abbotsford hotel market can largely be seen to capture visitors that are on route to other destinations (ie. predominately Vancouver, Victoria, etc.). As such, the majority of such hotel guests do not stay multiple nights. Other guests are drawn to Abbotsford hotels for such activities as: weddings and funerals; sporting events; concerts and performances (mostly at the Abbotsford Centre); tradeshows and conventions (Tradex facility); and festivals such as the Tulip Festival.

Recent hotel occupancy rates for Abbotsford/Chilliwack can be compared to Greater Vancouver rates as sourced from Destination BC. As can be observed in Table 15, occupancy rates have been trending higher over the last several years, reaching a year-to-date total of 66.7% in 2017 (Jan-Oct) in Abbotsford/Chilliwack. This is compared to an occupancy rate of 81.6% in the Greater Vancouver Region.

Table 15 - Hotel Occupancy Rates

Average daily room rates have also been on the incline over the last several years. Abbotsford’s rates have increased by 8% between 2015 and year-to-date 2017, reaching $111 in 2017 (Jan- Oct data). This is compared to Greater Vancouver where average daily room rates now approach $200. Thus, Abbotsford is considered a much more affordable option for overnight accommodation.

Table 16 - Average Daily Room Rates

AVERAGE DAILY ROOM RATES Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total Abbotsford/Chilliwack 2017 $101 $99 $99 $102 $112 $108 $124 $131 $111 $107 / / $111 2016 $96 $95 $96 $100 $104 $102 $118 $119 $109 $103 $100 $97 $105 2015 $99 $98 $98 $99 $103 $101 $108 $115 $103 $104 $98 $97 $103 Greater Vancouver 2017 $144 $149 $155 $163 $196 $220 $243 $245 $220 $177 / / $195 2016 $136 $140 $149 $164 $177 $201 $218 $215 $197 $164 $148 $146 $175 2015 $129 $130 $138 $140 $166 $195 $201 $203 $178 $154 $139 $137 $163

$210 $190 $170 $150 $130 $110 $90 $70 $50 2017 2016 2015 Abbotsford/Chilliwack $111 $105 $103 Greater Vancouver $195 $175 $163

*Annual figures except for 2017 (Jan-Oct data)

SUMMARY – HOTEL MARKET

The demand for hotel properties will be discussed in Section 10. From a supply perspective and given the premise of WeTown to attract high-tech oriented employment uses, a quality hotel property designed for the corporate market with state-of-the-art business and conferencing facilities should be further explored for the subject site.

4.5 SUMMARY

This examination of the local market context in terms of land use market trends and supply, provides insight into the overall health of the economy, provides a depiction of current locational and market trends, identifies areas where improvements could be made, and identifies particular gaps in the local marketplace.

These insights gathered for each of residential, employment, retail, and hotel land uses will aide in informing the land use demand analyses to follow and in developing appropriate site concepts.

5.0 BASE CASE LAND USE FORECAST

Based on the population and employment forecasts detailed in the preceeding sections, Urbanics derived base case residential and office space absorption estimates for the WeTown site. The findings make clear that without placing an emphasis on attracting catalyst or ‘accerlerant’ tenants such as a post-secondary school, research institution, or an industry-leading corporation’s offfice, only a comparatively modest development program can be justified from the absorption of forecast growth.

5.1 RESIDENTIAL

From BC Stats Population Projections, roughly 14,000 new homes will be demanded in Abbotsford by 2039 as the total number of households in the city reaches 67,000.

Applying an ambitious absorption range of 10 –20%, WeTown’s share of anticipated growth in Abbotsford ranges from 1,426 to 2,851 homes at final build-out. Assuming household sizes in- line with the municipal average, the high-absorption scenario therefore results in a site population of under 8,000. Table 17 estimates WeTown site demand at 10%. 15%, and 20% shares of Abbotsford’s forecast population growth:

BASE CASE SCENARIO - RESIDENTIAL FORECAST 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 City of Abbotsford Forecast Abbotsford Population (1) 146,654 155,029 163,237 170,889 178,011 Household Size (2) 2.78 2.76 2.73 2.69 2.65

Number of Households (2) 52,847 56,215 59,865 63,597 67,102

Incremental New Housing Demand 3,368 3,650 3,732 3,505 Cumulative New Housing Demand 3,368 7,018 10,750 14,255

WeTown Forecast Estimated Incremental Site Demand 10% Site Market Share 337 365 373 351 15% Site Market Share 505 548 560 526 20% Site Market Share 674 730 746 701

Estimated Cumulative Site Demand 10% Site Market Share 337 702 1,075 1,426 15% Site Market Share 505 1,053 1,613 2,138 20% Site Market Share 674 1,404 2,150 2,851 Urbanics Consultants Ltd.

(1) As from Figure 6 - BC Stats Abbotsford Local Health Area Population Projections (2) BC Stats Household forecast (August 2017 release date)

Table 17 - Base Case Residential Forecast

One further complication relates to typology: unlike the WeTown concept, townhouse-type housing is the predominant development form in Abbotsford, and (with one exception) apartment developments consist of wood frame low-rise projects which tend to be more affordable than high- rise projects. A significant employment intervention beyond forecast base-case growth is therefore needed for several reasons:

x To increase the total quantity of housing demanded on-site. x To attract a young workforce that finds apartment living desirable. x To create jobs with above-average wages, such that the workforce population has the ability to select a premium housing typology in comparison to present apartment development patterns.

5.2 OFFICE

ABBOTSFORD FORECAST

Working from BC Labour Market Forecast data, Urbanics estimates that approximately 600,000 square feet of additional office space will be warranted in Abbotsford between 2019 and 2039, bringing Abbotsford to a total of 2,570,000 square feet. If WeTown captures 25% of forecast office space growth, then 150,000 square feet of office space will be warranted at final build-out.

Table 18 estimates incremental and cumulative on-site demand at 10% and 25% absorption of Abbotsford’s forecast growth. It should be emphasized that this estimate is predicated on the continuation of existing growth patterns, and does not reflect the potential addition of a large employer cluster which WeTown aims to attract.

Table 18 - Base Case Office Space Forecast

BASE CASE SCENARIO - OFFICE SPACE FORECAST 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 City of Abbotsford Forecast Office Employment Forecast (# of Workers) 6,910 7,367 7,879 8,430 9,023

Office Space Forecast (in 000's of SQFT) 1,970 2,100 2,250 2,400 2,570 Additional Office Demanded (5-year) 130 150 150 170

WeTown Forecast Estimated Incremental Site Demand 10% Market Share (in 000's of SQFT) 13 15 15 17 25% Market Share (in 000's of SQFT) 33 38 38 43

Estimated Cumulative Site Demand 10% Market Share (in 000's of SQFT) 13 28 43 60 25% Market Share (in 000's of SQFT) 33 70 108 150

Required Land Area (Acres) at 5% Share (1.0 FSR) 0.30 0.34 0.34 0.39 Required Land Area (Acres) at 10% Share (1.0 FSR) 0.75 0.86 0.86 0.98 Source: Urbanics Consultants

LOWER MAINLAND-SOUTHWEST FORECAST

For the purposes of illustrating the scale of the WeTown vision, Urbanics also derived site absorption estimates as a share of Lower Mainland-Southwest forecast growth. Table 19 estimates on-site demand at 5% and 10% of regional growth.

Table 19 – Base Case Lower Mainland-Southwest Office Space Forecast

BASE CASE SCENARIO - OFFICE SPACE FORECAST 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 Lower Mainland-Southwest Forecast Office Employment Forecast (# of Workers) 260,262 278,139 299,787 323,266 348,739

Office Space Forecast (in 000's of SQFT) 52,050 55,630 59,960 64,650 69,750 Additional Office Demanded (5-year) 3,580 4,330 4,690 5,100

WeTown Forecast Estimated Incremental Site Demand 5% Market Share (in 000's of SQFT) 179 217 235 255 10% Market Share (in 000's of SQFT) 358 433 469 510

Estimated Cumulative Site Demand 5% Market Share (in 000's of SQFT) 179 396 630 885 10% Market Share (in 000's of SQFT) 358 791 1,260 1,770

Required Land Area (Acres) at 5% Share (1.0 FSR) 4.11 4.97 5.38 5.85 Required Land Area (Acres) at 10% Share (1.0 FSR) 8.22 9.94 10.77 11.71 Source: Urbanics Consultants As illustrated, even a dramatically high capture rate of 10% implies on-site demand for 1,770,000 sq. ft. of office space, around 350,000 sq. ft. less than the proposed development plan. A more realistic 5% capture yields a total of 885,000 sq. ft.

IMPLICATIONS FOR WETOWN

If the project is to proceed on the scale as envisioned, it is clear that the proponent team cannot simply rely on capturing a conventional share of forecast regional growth. Programming must be designed in a manner that will attract tenants who otherwise would not choose to locate in the region. Given the stated technology focus of WeTown, a potential program of accelerant uses will be discussed at length in the following section.

It should be noted that official employment forecasts tend towards caution, and generally do not anticipate periods of exceptional growth (such as the past several years in BC). Over a 20 year period, it is possible that the region will experience one or more similar periods of exceptional growth. If not followed by slowdowns of equal proportion, then it is likely that these forecasts will be exceeded. However, the resulting on-site demand estimates are of such lower magnitude than the proposal that the attraction of accelerant land uses should still be prioritized, even in the event of elevated baseline economic growth.

6.0 THE WETOWN CONCEPT – EMPLOYMENT AND ACCLERANT USES

Centred on a high-technology theme, WeTown is envisioned to be a complete, self-sufficient community providing a balance of employment, housing, retail, and recreational land uses. The concept of a self-sufficient complete community offers a number of advantages:

x Advances Abbotsford’s goal of increasing the proportion of residents employed within the city. x The proposal’s scale has potential to place Abbotsford on par with neighboring municipalities with established or progressing technology clusters (Vancouver, Burnaby, North Vancouver, Surrey). x A complete community minimizes traffic and the need for costly additional road infrastructure. x Proposed density enables a high-rise typology which allows for a greater share of the site to consist of open space. x Sound regional planning: reduce the lopsided proportion of the workforce commuting from east to west daily, creating a new eastern regional centre.

However in order to achieve these goals, a critial mass of employment activity is a precondition. As the base case analysis demonstrates, the success of WeTown will depend on attracting one or more tenants of a size and reputation necessary to signal to the wider community that the project is bound to be a hub for world-class tech activity.

Residential, retail, hotel, and other uses should be seen primarily as a function of the anchor employment and institutional tenants attracted to the site. In other words, these uses ought to be built in proportion to the scale of employment and institutional tenants attracted. For this reason, the following sections will envision a potential land use mix encompassing major employer space, a post-secondary institution, a specialized research institution, and a business incubation facility.

Of these accelerant uses, the attraction of a major employer is considered essential, while the others are to be considered highly beneficial.

6.1 MAJOR EMPLOYER SPACE

The single most important component of WeTown’s success is the attraction of a large, highly recognized office tenant in the technology field. An “A-List” corporate tenant should lend WeTown the credibility needed to attract the attention of subsequent tenants. A highly concerted effort must be made to this effect; as demonstrated in Section 5, a conventional approach reliant on absorbing a share of forecast regional growth will not yield demand for the scale of office space envisioned in the WeTown concept.

Appendix 6 contains a list of the 100 most significant global technology firms, as measured by Thompson – Reuters. It is likely the case that a successful project marketing approach will rely on establishing meetings with as large a share of the list as possible. In terms of office nature, the function may be either (or both) of a management centre or a technical development centre; the blank slate nature of WeTown allows for the possibility of working closely with major tenants during the building design phase.

AN ABBOTSFORD ADVANTAGE?

It is becoming increasingly evident that Abbotsford can be perceived as a logical area that would be conducive for attracting major employment-based uses, particularly high-tech research- oriented corporations and institutions. The following regional trends are likely to continue intensifying:

• The Vancouver region will continue on its path of transitioning into a major international city. • Traffic congestion will worsen as more housing than employment is added in local municipalities outside Vancouver. • Housing costs will continue to escalate. • Overall cost of living will increase. • Diminishing opportunities for development in core areas, particularly large-scale development with high potential for custom facility design. • Shift to higher density development across all communities. • Policy emphasis will continue to shift towards mixed-use/complete communities. • Increased emphasis on sustainability. • Increasing shift to a knowledge-based economy: • Connected globally. • Digitally based.

With these growing pressures it may become increasingly apparent for large corporations – particularly those catering to millennials and young families – to look to ‘the Abbotsfords of Canada.’ As highlighted in Section 4, Abbotsford boasts a significant housing affordability over all municipalities in Metro Vancouver, and across a variety of housing typologies and tenures. The spread is likely to widen as Metro Vancouver cities run out of greenfield and brownfield development opportunities, while Abbotsford maintains some capacity for expanding its developed area.

While recent headline-grabbing technology firm expansions in Metro Vancouver have been centred on the downtown core, other regional municipalities are home to world-class technology firms. Table 20 provides a survey of major tech employers located outside the City of Vancouver, mainly in campus-like environments. An impressive diversity of fields is represented:

Table 20 – Local Technology Firms – Outside Vancouver

LOCAL TECHNOLOGY FIRMS - OUTSIDE VANCOUVER Firm Location Employees Office type Date established Known for

Largest video game EA Vancouver Burnaby 1300 Game development studio 1983 development studio in the world at time of campus opening

Corporate headquarters Space technology, surveillance MacDonald, Dettwiler, and until firm merger in 2017 - Richmond 880 (4800 globally) 1969 and intelligence technology and Associates holding company now software based in the US McKesson Imaging & Business unit global Healthcare IT products and Richmond 800 Workflow Solutions headquarters services Electronics design and Creation Technologies Burnaby 450 (2500 globally) Corporate headquarters 1989 manufacturing

One of the largest global firms Delta Controls Surrey 230 Headquarters 1987 specializing in building automation systems

Headquarters and Global leader in commercial Finger Food Studios Port Coquitlam 140+ 2009 development studio augmented reality applications

HIGH-TECH BEYOND THE URBAN CORE

Amazon’s aggressive expansion into the downtown cores of Seattle and Vancouver can be seen as outliers in the North American context. There are many examples of thriving technology- oriented employment centres in less urban locations, as growing technology employers seek access to the following attributes often challenging to achieve in urban centres:

• Large land areas. • Potential for a campus like environment. • Relatively competitive pricing for land. • Reasonable access to urban services and resources. • Proximity to an airport. • Adequate housing affordability and availability.

WeTown provides for all of the above while also incorporating ‘urban-like’ planning forms including:

• Pedestrian friendly - Walkable/bikeable self-contained community. • Abundant on-site retail space. • Public transit connections. • A variety of housing options. • Emphasis on sustainability.

In this sense, WeTown may be seen as combining the best of both worlds: the macro advantages of a greenfield location outside the urban core, but with a built environment that delivers some of the most valued features of highly urbanized areas. It should be cautioned that this property is dependent on the proposed scale of the project, as a less ambitious scheme would be unable to deliver the density required support a complete community.

Abbotsford is located 72 kilometers away from downtown Vancouver. Table 21 highlights municipalities located a similar distance from their respective regional cores, but that are home to major concentrations of technology centre employment.

Table 21 - Technology Oriented Smaller Cities

TECHNOLOGY-ORIENTED SMALLER CITIES Distance to Municipality Jobs Population Largest Private Sector Employers Urban Centre Menlo Park, CA 50.5 km 16,438 33,319 Facebook (7,091), Intuit (3,931) Cupertino, CA 70.6 km 26,428 60,297 Apple (15,000), Seagate Technology (500) Sunnyvale, CA 66.8 km 77,919 149,596 Lockheed Martin (4,610), Apple (4,000) Mountain View, CA 52 km 45,145 78,827 Alphabet (23,324), Symantec (2,789) Redwood City, CA 52.5 km 44,887 82,595 Oracle (6,581), Electronic Arts (1,478) Santa Clara, CA 72.8 km 64,714 122,725 Applied Materials (8,500), Intel (7,801) Redmond, WA 26 km 31,836 59,268 Microsoft (34,358), Terex (2,656), AT&T (941) Waterloo, ON 113 km 30,000 (1) 104,986 Blackberry (4,044), OpenText (1,300), Virtek Kanata, ON (Kanata North Technology Park) 22 km 26,325 (2) 117,304 Cisco, Nokia, Dell, Mitel, Halogen Software Provo, UT 69 km 59,321 117,335 Qualtrics (1,300 +), Ancestry.com, Novatek Arm (1,671), Aveva Group (1,692), Samsung, Cambridge, UK 105 km 30219 (3) 129,000 Qualcomm (704) (1) Technology jobs in Waterloo Region (2) Tech employees in Kanata North (3) Technology jobs

DESIGN CONSIDERATIONS

In addition to the macro advantages to employers of locating in Abbotsford, employment spaces at WeTown must be thoughtfully designed to incorporate the advantages that can be derived from the design freedom afforded by a large site with flexible building form possibilities.

Appendix 5 highlights successful examples of technology employment clusters on greenfield and brownfield sites, often (but not necessarily) in proximity to a university. While it is suggested to work as closely as possible with prospective tenants during the building design phase, some general principles of successful technology-oriented space design can be observed:

x Over-height ceilings (to accommodate equipment etc.) x Robust, flexible HVAC systems capable of adaptation to unique cooling and ventilation requirements necessitated by R&D work. x Large floorplates. x Abundant natural light, views, and exposure to a variety of beautifully landscaped and natural outdoor spaces (to increase the value proposition relative to Vancouver).

Of course, a large share of employment space will be in the form of conventional office space unburdened by the requirement to host R&D activities; not all space provided will therefore need to incorporate these features, but design concepts should be flexible enough such that the ability to accommodate R&D activities is not precluded.

6.2 UNIVERSITY

The majority of smaller cities highlighted in section 5 share a significant commonality: proximity to a university known to be especially strong in technology fields. Stanford University powered technology industry growth in the Bay Area municipalities, the University of Waterloo was instrumental in building Waterloo into tech hub, Brigham Young University spurred a technology cluster in Provo, and Cambridge attracted a cluster of tech employers to its region.

Although educational uses may not be strictly speaking the highest and best use for a site, having a premium university that can be seen to be generating start-up businesses (that would be on commercially-owned property), can generate complementary land uses - startup offices, expanded corporate offices, residential facilities, retail establishments, hotel and convention facilities - all of which would be developed as commercial space at WeTown.

Strategically designed universities, particularly of an international reach, aide in the generation of effective start-up businesses/industries. A higher learning institution with a strong research and technology backbone serves as a means to create dynamic clusters that accelerate economic growth and international competitiveness. They provide a common location for collaboration between and across government, academia and industry, supporting the entire innovation ecosystem – from the inception of ideas to commercialization. They are innovation drivers, workforce cultivators, and are neighbourhood-building amenities.

We are imagining a new University campus with ties to either or both of the University of the Fraser Valley, or an established international university. The general assumptions and premises are as follows:

x International competition continues to expand exponentially. x British Columbia would do well to exhibit a more diversified economic base – thereby being less vulnerable to the negative impacts of changing economic and market conditions, radical commodity price changes, and other unpredictable economic shocks. x Successful future economies will be increasingly reflective of knowledge-based industries. x Strategically designed universities – particularly of an international reach, need to be established in order to generate appropriate and effective start up business/industries.

Sumas Mountain can be considered a viable location for such a venture being that it is situated in an expansive, pristine mountain environment. The vision for WeTown being a pedestrian oriented, complete community showcasing leading environmental technologies and sustainable development lends itself to be complementary to a learning institution with international clout. Given the high-tech focus of WeTown, a university specialized in technology research and development would be the most natural fit. A number of succesful specialized institutions operate in North America:

Table 22 - Specialized Research & Technology Universities

SPECIALIZED RESEARCH & TECHNOLOGY UNIVERSITIES Campus Size University Location Enrolment International Students Faculty/Employees (acres)

Rensselaer 7,113 total; 5,781 15:1 Student to Faculty Polytechnic Troy, NY Undergraduate Students; Ratio; 441 full-time 275 Institute 1,109 Graduate Students equivalent faculty

31:1 Student to Faculty 35,900 total; 30,600 University of 21% International Ratio; 1,139 full-time Waterloo, ON undergraduate; 5,300 1,000 Waterloo Students (6,498) faculty; 322 International graduate students Faculty 29% international 8:1 student to faculty 11,331 Total; 4,527 students (3289); Also ratio; 1,036 professers; MIT Cambridge, MA Undergraduates; 6,804 168 539 Exchange/visiting 827 other teaching staff; Graduate Students students 12,110 total employees

2,255 Total; 1,001 3:1 Student to Faculty Approx 25% International Cal Tech Pasadena, CA Undergraduate Students; Ratio; approx. 300 124 Students (564) 1,254 Graduate Students faculty

1,311 Tenure-track Faculty; 18:1 Student to 9,470 total; 6,046 Faculty Ratio (Full-time University of Rochester, NY Undergraduate Students; Students & Full Time 707 Rochester 3,424 Graduate Students Tenure Faculty in Arts/Science & Engineering School) 16,122 total; 6,994 4:1 Student to Faculty Stanford Stanford, CA undergraduates; 9,128 8,180 Ratio; 2,153 faculty Graduates

The most elite institutions of the selection, MIT, Stanford, and Cal Tech, are characterized by low student to faculty ratios and a high proportion of graduate students. When non-faculty staff are counted, it is not uncommon to find the ratio approaching or even falling below 1:1. If WeTown decides to pursue an academic tenant, a 1:1 student to employee ratio should be strived for. In addition to selecting for quality over quantity among the student body, an even ratio will allow for a substantial university without having the on-site population overwhelmed by students.

Already home to the University of the Fraser Valley (UFV) which enrolls 15,000 students across multiple campuses, Abbotsford has demonstrated capacity and demand to host a major post- secondary institution. With two core campuses and seven additional specialized facilities – including in Chandigarh, India – the UFV is signalling its statement of intent as an ambituous, growing instituion that structures its activities in accordance with local and global economic trends.

UFV should be seriously engaged by the proponent team in order to ascertain the degree of openness to an expansion in WeTown, particular with a technology focus. In addition to pursuing local institutions and governmental partners, an opportunity exists to pioneer the expansion of a leading international technology-oriented university into Canada. Though less publicly recognized than traditional North American top schools, Asia is home to a

50 number of world-class universities that feature towards the top of global rankings in a variety of STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics) fields.

Leading Asian universities should be considered of particular interest compared to other international institutions. The environment provided by Canada and Abbotsford is particularly advantageous for faculty and students in Asia, offering particular advantages in:

x The ability to live and work in a pristine, quiet, spacious environment such as WeTown on Sumas Mountain. x World-leading livability. x Transparent, democratic governance and the absence of regional tensions.

Table 23 highlights institutions that have demonstrated excellence in one or more high-tech field and are of the scale necessary for the ability to contemplate an international expansion. It should be emphasized that the participation of an international institution may be seen as complementary – not exclusionary – to the participation of local institutions.

Table 23 - Asian Research & Technology Universities

6.3 RESEARCH INSTITUTE

Either as a smaller-scale alternative to a university or complementary to one, the establishment of a specialized research institute at WeTown will similarly send a strong signal to major businesses that the project will be home to world-class researchers and innovation.

While Canada and BC are home to some excellent researchers and institutions (for example, world-leading particle physics research at TRIUMF), the overall innovation picture for both jurisdictions is weak when compared with OECD peers. Unfortunately, a number of metrics indicate that the gap is worsening. Appendixes 2 and 3 discuss, respectively, Canada’s innovation competitiveness, and the landscape of BC’s tech industry as well as innovation competitiveness.

A very strong case can therefore be made that it is in the national interest for the Canadian and BC governments to help establish a world-class research institute specializing in an emerging STEM field.

Table 24 presents a selection of specialized research institutes. Several common threads can be observed:

x The largest specialized research institutes by employment in North America are affiliated with a university. x Typical size for a university-affiliated research institute ranges from 200,000 to 300,000 square feet, and 200 to 280 researchers. Given the size of the WeTown concept, this can be considered a manageable scale to accommodate. x Stand-alone research institutes typically feature under 100 researchers.

Table 24 - Field-Specific Technology Institutes

FIELD-SPECIFIC TECHNOLOGY INSTITUTES Institute Location Technical Staff Floor Area International Institute for Nanotechnology Evanston, IL 240 Georgia Institute for Electronics and Nanotechnology Atlanta, GA 249 225,000 sq. ft. Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 800 Allen Institute of Artificial Intelligence Seattle, WA 80 Carngegie Mellon Robotics Institute Pittsburgh, PA 280 207,000 sq. ft. Institute for Robotics and Mechatronics, University of Toronto Toronto, ON 45 Quantum Computing Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge, TN 63 Institute for Quantum Computing, University of Waterloo Waterloo, ON 200 285,000 sq. ft.

With or without a university component, the research institute land use offers the appeal of creating a recognizable specialization that WeTown would be associated with. In a context where most jurisdictions are competing to brand themselves as friendly to technology sector employers, being able to point to a genuine centre of excellence in a STEM field would undoubtedly provide WeTown with a substantial competitive advantage.

WeTown presents a series of attributes proven to be attractive to the siting of research institutes:

x Opportunity to co-locate with complementary educational and employment uses.

x Large site with minimal facility design constraints in comparison to a dense, established university campus. x A secure, peaceful location that still features proximity to a major metro region.

6.4 BUSINESS INCUBATION COMPLEX

A Business/Incubation Complex can either operate as an off-shoot of a university, or as a standalone entity to be operated by the developer or other firms. Part of what has historically made Business/Incubation Complexes successful are the synergies created between users and the benefits of agglomeration and clustering. We envision facilitating such synergy through the planning and development of elements including:

x Social Spaces - There would be a social component oriented around cafés and pubs to facilitate inter-disciplinary collaboration and innovation. At these place students and entrepreneurs of differing disciplines may interact and identify new and groundbreaking products to bring to market.

x Business Administration Services – These services could help guide potential start-ups through writing business plans, and navigating the world of administrative minutiae.

x Intellectual Property Services – There would need to be at least a few offices of lawyers specializing in intellectual property to help these firms understand their rights from early stages through commercialization.

x Financial and Venture Capital Services – There are several ways that the start-ups can be funded. This includes existing venture capital firms or a purpose-built venture capital firm. For example, the major banks of RBC, TD, Scotiabank, Bank of Montreal, CIBC, HSBC, National Bank and the Treasury Board of British Columbia could contribute a few million dollars each to be equal shareholders in this firm. This firm would then employ its own team of experts to review the applications for venture financing received from companies within the research park, participating by way of not only offering loans, but also having the option of enjoying a no-cost and no-recourse equity interest in select ventures.

x Incubation Spaces – Once a startup is up and running, they can operate in a stacked “garage” which serve as work-live spaces for these budding entrepreneurs. These spaces can have different demising so that as a successful venture grows, it need not vacate the park, but rather relocate to larger accommodations.

The aim is to attract, create and sustain companies, especially in the technology, and innovation sectors, as well as encourage new and fresh investments, and other activities that would diversify the economic base.

Such office spaces may be configured with shared work and lab spaces and smaller, more affordable areas for start-ups. The most modern IT services and communications systems ought to be available.

Table 25 presents an overview of successful specialized tech-oriented business incubation centres in North America and abroad. A broad mix of funding models and parent organizations can be observed, ranging from fully private to fully operated by a university. Setting aside outliers, typical incubator facilities range in size from 23,000 to 70,000 sq. ft.

Table 25 - Tech Incubator Facilities

TECH INCUBATOR FACILITIES Incubator Location On-Site Jobs On-site firms Floor Area Notes Charitable trust funded by businesses, governments, universities, and hospitals. Claims to the world's largest "urban MaRS Discovery District Toronto, ON 6000 1000 1,500,000 sq. ft. innovation hub". University of Waterloo initiative, with private sector partners. Claims to be the largest free startup Velocity Kitchener, ON 80 37,000 sq. ft. incubator space in the world. Ryerson initiatve, with government and private partners. Ranked #1 university-based business The DMZ Toronto, ON 32,900 sq. ft. incubator in the world by UBI An initiative by Cambridge University. First business incubator St John's Innovation Centre Cambridge, UK 384 88 53,000 sq. ft. in the UK. C4DI Hull, UK 23,000 sq. ft. Private corporation. Partnership between the state government, 3 universities, and the T-Hub Hyderabad, India 800 130 70,000 sq. ft. private sector. Private corporation, though the French state has been investing Station F Paris, France 3000 1000 (planned) 366,000 sq. ft. heavily in venture capital.

Founders Space San Francisco, CA 25,000 sq. ft. Private corporation

6.5 SUMMARY

From a public policy perspective, we believe that all levels of government should be keen to facilitate the creation of a high-technology employment and education cluster in Canada, BC, and Abbotsford, particularly if an expansion is associated with emerging technological fields. Appendix 1 discusses the economy’s continued shift towards knowledge-intensive technological fields, to such an extent that the World Economic Forum believes the global economy is undergoing a fourth industrial revolution.

In order for a jurisdiction to prosper in a new economic context, two basic conditions must be met: economic opportunity has to exist, and the population must be equipped with the skills needed to take advantage of it. WeTown’s proposed mix of uses, if realized, have the potential to make Abbotsford a leader on both counts.

7.0 EMPLOYMENT-BASED LAND USE FORECAST

Sections 7 through 13 present preliminary absorption forecasts for envisioned land uses on the WeTown site. All figures are based on the assumption that market conditions remain favorable, economic trends remain conducive to the proposed tenant mix, and that a marketing program will be of sufficient strength to attract the quantity of firms and residents at the scale envisioned.

The medium scenario is considered the expected or anticipated scenario. Additionally, a high and a low scenario are presented in order to illustrate the magnitude of a 15% +/- deviation in warranted office space, and associated impacts on residential demand.

Critical assumptions include ratios of office square footage per employee, homes demanded per job, and residential square footage required per resident. All tables have been careful to note these ratios.

OFFICE PHASING FORECAST

Table 26 ‘Office Forecast Summary’ represents the average outcomes between Tables 27 and 28 of workforce-based land usage and the average required employment base given both a high and low scenario of potential economic growth conditions that impact the region. Broken down into 5-year phasing increments, the forecasted space occupied by tenants, both large and small would create a pull of people to the region based on research and rational assumptions as highlighted in the table notes. The tables are constituted as follows:

x The Anchors and Major tenants represent corporate and/or research operations (500 - 3000 employees) of a scale considered large enough to be considered anchor tenants at WeTown. The first line demonstrates the leasable area the major tenants would occupy to run their business. The second line (workforce) demonstrates the number of people required as a workforce on average, that these employers would require to run their business.

x The Startups and Smaller tenants represent a mixture of start-ups, smaller tech firms, and non-tech tenants attracted by the opportunity to provide professional services to technology leaders. The first line of this category of lease holders represents the leasable area that minor tenants would occupy to run their businesses. The second line (workforce) demonstrates the number of people required as a workforce on average, that smaller employers would require to run their business.

x The last two lines total the sum of both large and small leasable areas per sq. ft. over the phased timeline as well as the total workforce that would be required to support the tenant’s businesses.

The medium scenario forecasts 2,150,000 square feet of office space at final build-out, supporting 11,100 private sector employees:

Table 26 - Office Forecast Summary

OFFICE FORECAST SUMMARY ANCHOR TENANT AND GENERAL SPACE YEAR 1-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 ANCHORS AND OTHER MAJOR TENANTS Leasable area (sq. ft.) 650,000 1,000,000 1,430,000 1,850,000 Workforce (1) 3,421 5,263 7,526 9,737 STARTUPS AND OTHER SMALLER TENANTS Leasable area (sq. ft.) 100,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 Workforce (2) 455 909 1,136 1,364 Total leasable area (sq. ft.) 750,000 1,200,000 1,680,000 2,150,000 Total office space workforce 3,876 6,172 8,663 11,100 Source: Urbanics Consultants Ltd. Notes: 1) Major tech employers in British Columbia average 190 sq. ft. per employee (source: Urbanics) 2) General office space in Abbotsford averages 220 sq. ft. per employee, inclusive of vacancies (source: Urbanics, CoStar Property, Avison Young)

The low scenario in Table 27 forecasts absorption based on a 15% reduction in total square footage, or 323,000 sq. ft. This would support 1665 fewer jobs, a reduction equivalent to EA Vancouver’s workforce plus 365 other employers.

Table 27 - Office Forecast Low Scenario

OFFICE FORECAST - LOW SCENARIO ANCHOR TENANT AND GENERAL SPACE YEAR 1-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 ANCHORS AND OTHER MAJOR TENANTS Leasable area (sq. ft.) 552,500 850,000 1,215,500 1,572,500 Workforce (1) 2,908 4,474 6,397 8,276 STARTUPS AND OTHER SMALLER TENANTS Leasable area (sq. ft.) 85,000 170,000 212,500 255,000 Workforce (2) 386 773 966 1,159 Total leasable area (sq. ft.) 637,500 1,020,000 1,428,000 1,827,500 Total office space workforce 3,294 5,246 7,363 9,435 Source: Urbanics Consultants Ltd. Notes: 1) Major tech employers in British Columbia average 190 sq. ft. per employee (source: Urbanics) 2) General office space in Abbotsford averages 220 sq. ft. per employee, inclusive of vacancies (source: Urbanics, CoStar Property, Avison Young)

The high scenario anticipates a total office workforce of 12,766 employees – roughly equivalent to the addition of a large employer the size of EA Vancouver in addition to an approximately 400 additional employees spread across smaller employers and start-ups.

Table 28 - Office Forecast High Scenario

OFFICE FORECAST - HIGH SCENARIO ANCHOR TENANT AND GENERAL SPACE YEAR 1-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 ANCHORS AND OTHER MAJOR TENANTS Leasable area (sq. ft.) 747,500 1,150,000 1,644,500 2,127,500 Workforce (1) 3,934 6,053 8,655 11,197 STARTUPS AND OTHER SMALLER TENANTS Leasable area (sq. ft.) 115,000 230,000 287,500 345,000 Workforce (2) 523 1,045 1,307 1,568 Total leasable area (sq. ft.) 862,500 1,380,000 1,932,000 2,472,500 Total office space workforce 4,457 7,098 9,962 12,766 Source: Urbanics Consultants Ltd. Notes: 1) Major tech employers in British Columbia average 190 sq. ft. per employee (source: Urbanics) 2) General office space in Abbotsford averages 220 sq. ft. per employee, inclusive of vacancies (source: Urbanics, CoStar Property, Avison Young)

8.0 ACCERLANT PROGRAMMING LAND USE FORECAST

As the primary aim of WeTown is to focus on employment, the university component has been envisioned to be of a size only large enough to support an employment cluster. At 2,143 students envisioned in the main scenario, at final build-out, the concept is roughly the same size as Cal Tech. Based on data from Cal Tech and other research-focused universities, 560 sq. ft. per student has been allocated, along with a student: total staff ratio of 1.16 : 1, a figure that includes all faculty, teaching, research, administrative, and support staff.

At 200,000 sq. ft. and 250 staff when complete, the research institute component has been modelled on three leading North American research institutes: The Institute for Quantum Computing at the University of Waterloo, the Carnegie Mellon Robotics Institute, and the Georgia Institute for Robotics and Nanotechnology. The bulk of construction work, if possible, is advised to occur at the earliest phase in order for the institute to have maximum effect in attracting office tenants.

The incubator component is modelled on St. John’s Innovation Centre in Cambridge, featuring approximately 50,000 sq. ft. and a workforce of 400.

Table 29 ‘Accelerant uses forecast summary’ represents the average forecast outcomes between tables 30 and 31 a high and low scenario of Education and Research and Development land usage given future economic growth conditions that impact the region. Broken down into 5 year phasing increments, the forecasted space occupied by a University, a supporting research institution and an incubator space would create a pull of people to the region based on research and rational assumptions as highlighted in the table notes. The tables are constituted as follows:

x University Floor space is estimated in the first line of University analysis. The information in the subsequent 2 lines (students 1 and University faculty and staff) demonstrates the required average amount of students, faculty and staff that on average would be required to support a university’s operations of the corresponding size.

x Research institute floor space information is represented in the first line of Research Institute analysis. The subsequent line (workforce) represents the average workforce size required to support a research institution with the corresponding floorspace.

x Incubator floor space in formation is demonstrated in the first line of the Incubator analysis. The following line (staff and tenant work force) represents the associated staff and tenant workforce that would require an incubator occupying the corresponding floorspace to be supported.

Table 29 - Accelerant Uses Forecast Summary

ACCELERANT USES FORECAST SUMMARY UNIVERSITY, RESEARCH INSTITUTE, INCUBATOR YEAR 1-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 UNIVERSITY Floorspace - lecture rooms, research space, offices, etc. (sq. ft.) 400,000 700,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 Students (1) 714 1,250 1,786 2,143 University faculty and staff (2) 615 1,077 1,538 1,846

RESEARCH INSTITUTE Floorspace - research area, offices (sq. ft.) 150,000 200,000 200,000 200,000 Workforce (3) 188 250 250 250

INCUBATOR Floorspace - work area for tenants, support service offices (sq. ft.) 52,000 52,000 52,000 52,000 Staff and tenant workforce (4) 400 400 400 400

Total workforce 1,203 1,727 2,188 2,496 TOTAL BUILDING AREA (sq. ft.) 602,000 952,000 1,252,000 1,452,000 Source: Urbanics Consultants Ltd. Note: Could include the participation of a non-Canadian institution. Footnotes: 1) Research oriented high-tech universities approximate 1 student per 560 sq. ft. of total building area, excluding residences 2) Institutions as described above approximate 1 employee per 650 sq. ft. - includes both faculty and support staff (source: Urbanics) 3) Research institutes average 800 sq. ft. of floorspace per employee (source: Urbanics) 4) Incubators average 130 sq. ft. per employee (source: European Union guidelines)

Table 30 presents a scenario with a university and research institute 15% smaller than the baseline. It should be noted that a precedent of a well-regarded research university at 1,800 students could not be found – however, most universities have had much more than 20 years to grow to their present size. This scenario could therefore represent a university which has not yet grown to its complete size, or an off-site campus of an established university such as UFV.

Additionally, the size of the research institute has been reduced by 15%. Given that the incubator is proposed to be a very small share of total WeTown space, its size has remained constant in this scenario.

Table 30 - Accelerant Uses Forecast Summary Low Scenario

ACCELERANT USES FORECAST SUMMARY - LOW SCENARIO UNIVERSITY, RESEARCH INSTITUTE, INCUBATOR YEAR 1-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 UNIVERSITY Floorspace - lecture rooms, research space, offices, etc. (sq. ft.) 340,000 595,000 850,000 1,020,000 Students (1) 607 1,063 1,518 1,821 University faculty and staff (2) 523 915 1,308 1,569

RESEARCH INSTITUTE Floorspace - research area, offices (sq. ft.) 127,500 170,000 170,000 170,000 Workforce (3) 159 213 213 213

INCUBATOR Floorspace - work area for tenants, support service offices (sq. ft.) 52,000 52,000 52,000 52,000 Staff and tenant workforce (4) 400 400 400 400

Total workforce 1,082 1,528 1,920 2,182 TOTAL BUILDING AREA (sq. ft.) 519,500 817,000 1,072,000 1,242,000 Source: Urbanics Consultants Ltd. Note: Could include the participation of a non-Canadian institution. Footnotes: 1) Research oriented high-tech universities approximate 1 student per 560 sq. ft. of total building area, excluding residences 2) Institutions as described above approximate 1 employee per 650 sq. ft. - includes both faculty and support staff (source: Urbanics) 3) Research institutes average 800 sq. ft. of floorspace per employee (source: Urbanics) 4) Incubators average 130 sq. ft. per employee (source: European Union guidelines)

In the event that a university and research institute tenant anticipate enrollment and staff levels to be higher than the baseline, for illustration, a 15% increase in the size of both tenants is presented in Table 31.

Table 31 - Accelerant Uses Forecast Summary High Scenario

ACCELERANT USES FORECAST SUMMARY - HIGH SCENARIO UNIVERSITY, RESEARCH INSTITUTE, INCUBATOR YEAR 1-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 UNIVERSITY Floorspace - lecture rooms, research space, offices, etc. (sq. ft.) 460,000 805,000 1,150,000 1,380,000 Students (1) 821 1,438 2,054 2,464 University faculty and staff (2) 708 1,238 1,769 2,123

RESEARCH INSTITUTE Floorspace - research area, offices (sq. ft.) 172,500 230,000 230,000 230,000 Workforce (3) 216 288 288 288

INCUBATOR Floorspace - work area for tenants, support service offices (sq. ft.) 52,000 52,000 52,000 52,000 Staff and tenant workforce (4) 400 400 400 400

Total workforce 1,323 1,926 2,457 2,811 TOTAL BUILDING AREA (sq. ft.) 684,500 1,087,000 1,432,000 1,662,000 Source: Urbanics Consultants Ltd. Note: Could include the participation of a non-Canadian institution. Footnotes: 1) Research oriented high-tech universities approximate 1 student per 560 sq. ft. of total building area, excluding residences 2) Institutions as described above approximate 1 employee per 650 sq. ft. - includes both faculty and support staff (source: Urbanics) 3) Research institutes average 800 sq. ft. of floorspace per employee (source: Urbanics) 4) Incubators average 130 sq. ft. per employee (source: European Union guidelines)

9.0 RESIDENTIAL LAND USE FORECAST

The analysis provided in Table 32 ‘On-site residential forecast summary’ depicts the potential demand for residential units on the WeTown site given the above estimated employment space absorportion and corresponding employees required to support the commercial activities. It should be stressed that all residential forecasts are entirely dependent on the condition of employment-generating uses proceeding at the scale as envisioned.

Applying the conditions of:

x 80% of office and accelerant employees choosing to live on-site, 85% of students; x Household size of 2.4-2.7 for adults, 1.2 for students; x An additional category, “general residential demand”, not associated with WeTown’s workforce; x Average unit size of 800 sq. ft. for adults, 400 sq. ft. for students,

Table 32 indicates demand from 29,000 potential residents on-site, over an approximate 9,368,000 sq. ft. of housing at the end of a 20 year period.

Table 32 - On-Site Residential Forecast Summary ON-SITE RESIDENTIAL FORECAST SUMMARY Population generated from employment, students, and general absorption Year 1-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 RESIDENTIAL Units Residents Units Residents Units Residents Units Residents Housing occupied by WeTown workforce (1) 3,586 8,605 5,351 12,842 6,945 16,667 8,702 20,884 Student housing units (2) 607 729 1,063 1,275 1,518 1,821 1,518 1,821 General residential demand (3) 580 1,566 1,050 2,835 1,400 3,780 2,250 6,075 TOTAL UNITS 4,773 7,463 9,863 12,470 TOTAL RESIDENTS 10,900 16,952 22,269 28,781 TOTAL BUILDING AREA (sq. ft.) (4) 3,575,348 5,545,684 7,282,927 9,368,619 Source: Urbanics Consultants Ltd. Footnotes: 1) Housing units occupied by employees at WeTown - both private sector and academic. Assumes 80% of WeTown workers will live on-site. 20% of households assumed to house two WeTown employees. Household size: 2.4 2) Assumes 85% of student population will live at WeTown. Household size: 1.2 3) Represents 15% absorption of Abbotsford's forecast residential growth (BC Stats). Population assumed to work off-site. Household size: 2.7 4) Figures based on an average unit size of 800 sq. ft. for non-student housing, 400 sq. ft. for student housing. Note: Abbotsford's average household size is 2.8

In Table 33, residential demand is forecasted based on low scenarios for employment and accelerant uses – resulting in approximately 6,600 fewer residents. General residential demand from Abbotsford’s forecast growth (ie. demand not tied to other WeTown uses) is held constant in this scenario.

Table 33 - On-Site Residential Forecast Summary Low Scenario ON-SITE RESIDENTIAL FORECAST SUMMARY - LOW SCENARIO Population generated from employment, students, and general absorption Year 1-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 RESIDENTIAL Units Residents Units Residents Units Residents Units Residents Housing occupied by WeTown workforce (1) 2,801 6,723 4,336 10,405 5,941 14,259 6,039 14,493 Student housing units (2) 516 619 903 1,084 1,290 1,548 1,290 1,548 General residential demand (3) 580 1,566 1,050 2,835 1,400 3,780 2,250 6,075 TOTAL UNITS 3,897 6,289 8,632 9,579 TOTAL RESIDENTS 8,908 14,324 19,588 22,116 TOTAL BUILDING AREA (sq. ft.) (4) 2,911,304 4,669,690 6,389,208 7,147,000 Source: Urbanics Consultants Ltd. Footnotes: 1) Housing units occupied by employees at WeTown - both private sector and academic. Assumes 80% of WeTown workers will live on-site. 20% of households assumed to house two WeTown employees. Household size: 2.4 2) Assumes 85% of student population will live at WeTown. Household size: 1.2 3) Represents 15% absorption of Abbotsford's forecast residential growth (BC Stats). Population assumed to work off-site. Household size: 2.7 4) Figures based on an average unit size of 800 sq. ft. for non-student housing, 400 sq. ft. for student housing. Note: Abbotsford's average household size is 2.8

Table 34 illustrates residential demand derived from the high employment and high accelerant land use scenarios. As with the low scenario, general residential demand has been held constant.

Table 34 - On-Site Residential Forecast Summary High Scenario ON-SITE RESIDENTIAL FORECAST SUMMARY - HIGH SCENARIO Population generated from employment, students, and general absorption Year 1-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 RESIDENTIAL Units Residents Units Residents Units Residents Units Residents Housing occupied by WeTown workforce (1) 3,699 8,878 5,775 13,861 7,948 19,075 9,969 23,925 Student housing units (2) 698 838 1,222 1,466 1,746 2,095 2,095 2,514 General residential demand (3) 580 1,566 1,050 2,835 1,400 3,780 2,250 6,075 TOTAL UNITS 4,978 8,047 11,094 14,313 TOTAL RESIDENTS 11,282 18,162 24,950 32,514 TOTAL BUILDING AREA (sq. ft.) (4) 3,702,776 5,949,062 8,176,646 10,612,834 Source: Urbanics Consultants Ltd. Footnotes: 1) Housing units occupied by employees at WeTown - both private sector and academic. Assumes 80% of WeTown workers will live on-site. 20% of households assumed to house two WeTown employees. Household size: 2.4 2) Assumes 85% of student population will live at WeTown. Household size: 1.2 3) Represents 15% absorption of Abbotsford's forecast residential growth (BC Stats). Population assumed to work off-site. Household size: 2.7 4) Figures based on an average unit size of 800 sq. ft. for non-student housing, 400 sq. ft. for student housing. Note: Abbotsford's average household size is 2.8

Several additional conditions, in addition to the realization of employment space at the envisioned scale, are required in order for the residential programming vision to succeed:

x Given the smaller than average unit sizes, marketing teams must be successful in highlighting the complete community aspect of WeTown. Prospective residents must be sold on the fact that they are trading-off private space for a beautiful complete community rich with amenities.

x WeTown must provide a range of housing options broad enough to support a community of nearly 30,000 residents. A broad range of apartment sizes will be necessary in order to appeal to a broader range of buyers and tenants.

x A high share of employees at WeTown must be convinced to also reside on the site. While part of the appeal will be convenience and lifestyle oriented, care should be taken to ensure that residing at WeTown is also an economically appealing proposition. Special employee discount programs should be considered in order to ensure a high share of on- site employees choose to also live at WeTown. This is a model being pursued by a large mixed-use tech project in North Vancouver.2

2 http://www.vancouvermarket.ca/2018/06/21/2-3-million-sf-mixed-use-project-north-shore-innovation- district-planned/

10.0 RETAIL LAND USE FORECAST

This section provides a high-level forecast of the amount of retail space that is warranted on-site. The forecasts utilize the anticipated WeTown resident population and BC per capita expenditures. An ‘inflow’ factor is also presented to account for purchases made by off-site residents, employees living off-site, visitor purchases, etc.

PER CAPITA EXPENDITURES

For purposes of this high-level analysis, average per capita expenditure estimates on a provincial basis have been utilized.

The range of retail-commercial categories to be examined includes:

Department Store Type Merchandise (DSTM):

x Refers to comparison retail categories such as: general merchandise stores (department stores); clothing and clothing accessories; furniture and home furnishing stores; electronics and appliances; sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores; building material and supplies; miscellaneous store retailers (ex. Florists; office supplies; stationary and gift stores; and pet and pet supplies stores); Health & Personal Care Stores (Pharmacies/drug stores; cosmetics; beauty supplies and perfume stores; optical goods stores; food (health) supplement stores)

Non-DSTM Merchandising Categories (Convenience Retail):

x Food and Beverage Stores o Includes Supermarkets and other grocery stores; Convenience stores; Specialty food stores; Liquor, Beer and Wine Stores x Eating and Drinking Establishments o Includes full-service restaurants (family and fine-dining restaurants), limited- service eating places (fast food outlets, take-outs and coffee shops), and drinking places (bars, pubs and nightclubs). x Service-Commercial Establishments o Includes clothing services (laundry and dry cleaning service, laundromats and self service dry cleaning, dressmaking, tailoring, clothing storage and other services); personal care services (hair grooming and other services such as manicures and facials); and photographers services. x Health & Personal Care Stores o Includes Pharmacies/drug stores; cosmetics; beauty supplies and perfume stores; optical goods stores; food (health) supplement stores)

The Quarter 2 2017 to Quarter 1 2018 provincial average annual per capita expenditure on all retail categories is estimated to be $13,676 ($5,862 spent on DSTM merchandise and $7,815 spent on non-DSTM merchandise).

Table 35 - BC Per Capita Retail Expenditure Derivation

BC Per Capita Retail Expenditure Derivation Retail Trade Survey Quarterly, British Columbia, by North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), ($1000s) BC Population 2018 (est) 4,866,947 Per Capita Retail Total (1) DSTM Expenditure (past 4 quarters) Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores $542 $2,638,602 $682,011 $606,467 $658,600 $691,524 Electronics & Appliance Stores $489 $2,380,377 $510,086 $523,776 $588,876 $757,639 Building Material & Garden Equipment & Supplies Dealers $1,023 $4,980,427 $1,673,250 $1,230,300 $1,072,624 $1,004,253 Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores $1,090 $5,306,161 $1,251,077 $1,315,324 $1,659,902 $1,079,858 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, Misc. & Music Stores $905 $4,403,704 $1,047,648 $1,149,373 $1,251,986 $954,697 General Merchandise Stores $1,812 $8,818,437 $2,237,587 $2,215,844 $2,501,598 $1,863,408 Total DSTM $5,862 $28,527,708 $7,401,659 $7,041,084 $7,733,586 $6,351,379

Non DSTM Grocery Stores & Specialty Food Stores $2,982 $14,512,993 $3,716,773 $3,744,590 $3,657,663 $3,393,967 Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores $946 $4,605,469 $1,127,018 $1,268,824 $1,215,511 $994,116 (4) Eating & Drinking $2,344 $11,407,765 $2,817,244 $3,061,296 $2,812,285 $2,716,940 (2) Health & Personal Care Stores $1,222 $5,945,021 $1,496,261 $1,458,039 $1,604,260 $1,386,461 (5) Service Commercial $321 $1,561,894 Total Non-DSTM $7,815 $49,440,907 $11,974,540 $12,594,045 $12,102,004 $11,208,424

Total Retail Trade $13,676

Sources: BC Stats Statistics Canada. Table 355-0006 Statistics Canada; Table 080-0020 Tetrad, Sitewise 2.5 Urbanics Consultants Ltd.

(1) DSTM (Department Store Type Merchandise) (2) Health & Personal Care Stores - Includes pharmacies/drug stores, cosmetics, beauty supplies and perfume stores, optical goods, food (health) supplement stores (3) Food & Beverage Stores - Includes supermarkets and other grocery stores, convenience stores, specialty food stores, and liquor, beer & wine stores (4) Eating & Drinking - Includes full-service restaurants (family and fine dining), limited-service eating places (fast food outlets, take-outs and coffee shops), drinking places (bars, pubs, and nightclubs), and special food services. (5) Service-Commercial Establishments - Includes clothing services (laundry and dry cleaning service, laundromats and self service dry cleaning, dressmaking, tailoring, clothing storage and other services); personal care services (hair grooming and other services such as manicures and facials)

10.1 RETAIL OPPORTUNITY ANALYSIS

The following sections provide a high-level forecast of the expenditure potential, projected sales volume, and the total floor space for various merchandising categories. It employs the identified population forecasts for WeTown as well as BC average per capita expenditures to devise the total expenditure potential in five year increments. The per capita expenditures figures have been increased at a real rate of 1.0% per annum in order to account for anticipated growth in retail expenditures.

Based on various assumed market shares for these principal retailing categories, a determination of forecasted retail sales for each category and the warranted square footage for retail facilities at the site will be estimated. The market shares implemented consider existing and planned competition, as well as demographic, economic and population growth factors.

Due to uncertainties in the market and economic environment, a variety of scenarios have been employed in order to account for a range of the likely productivity levels that each of the retail categories within the subject site might be able to capture. The sales productivity levels have been guided by retail industry benchmarks. This serves to illustrate the potential variation in warranted square feet for each specific retail category according to different scenarios of performance.

It must be noted that certain assumptions regarding the future demand and supply conditions have been made by the consultant in order to determine the appropriate site market shares for each retail category. The market shares proposed assume site demand is strongly influenced by the assumed presence or lack thereof of a complementary range of other retailers and commercial services, in recognition that many retail types require a sufficient critical mass to consistently attract residents and inflow shoppers to a proposed development.

DEPARTMENT STORE TYPE MERCHANDISE

Employing previously discussed on-site population forecasts as well as average per capita expenditures, Table 36 provides a meaningful forecast of DSTM expenditures. DSTM, or Department Store Type Merchandise, typically includes all retail categories concerned with durable goods and includes clothing and clothing accessories; furniture and home furnishings; electronics and appliances; sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores; building material and garden equipment; general merchandise; and miscellaneous retailers such as florists, pet supplies, office supplies, stationary and gift stores. Per capita expenditures have been adjusted upward by a factor of 1% per annum to account for real increases in average per capita spending levels commensurate with presumed increases in average per capita incomes.

In addition, this table provides estimates of market shares which takes into consideration the existing supply of comparison type retailers found in Abbotsford. Market shares have been considered to increase from 45% to 65% to reflect a broader and deeper array of retail offerings on-site and the growing attractiveness of the project as the community grows. In addition, an inflow level of 20% share of the total forecasted sales volume has been applied across the study period to account for those from outside of the community who frequent the site. If a successfully planned and attractive, dynamic project (both in terms of size and, more importantly, in terms of tenant mix) is developed, than the inflow could exceed that which is presented.

Overall, the total site DSTM merchandise expenditures are forecasted to increase from over $38 million by year 5, to nearly $169 million by the end of the study period in year 20.

The final step of the analysis involves the conversion of these expenditures into estimates of warranted square footage. The annual per square foot productivity rates employed are not intended to reflect so much the actual level of sales realized by the agglomeration of proposed DSTM retail facilities, but rather to serve as a basis upon which to best identify the amount of space that should be earmarked for this category of retail activity form a store planning standpoint. Some retailers may experience a significantly higher or lower per square foot annual sales productivity. Furthermore, due to uncertainties in the market and economic environment, a variety of scenarios have been employed in order to account for a range of the likely productivity levels that each of the retail categories within the subject site might be able to capture. Assuming an average store planning per square foot productivity of $395 per square foot (as per the medium productivity scenario), as much as 430,000 square feet of DSTM is warranted by year 20 of development.

Table 36 - Retail Market Demand – Department Store Type Merchandise

RETAIL MARKET DEMAND DEPARTMENT STORE TYPE MERCHANDISE (COMPARISON SHOPPING) YEAR

1-5 6-10 11-15 16-20

On-Site Population 10,900 16,952 22,269 28,781 Per Capita Expenditures (1) $6,475 $6,805 $7,152 $7,517 Expenditure Potential $70,575,000 $115,359,000 $159,272,000 $216,347,000

Projected Site Market Share 45% 65% 65% 65% Projected Site Sales Volume $31,758,750 $74,983,350 $103,526,800 $140,625,550

INFLOW AS % OF SALES VOLUME: (2) 20% $6,351,750 $14,996,670 $20,705,360 $28,125,110

TOTAL PROJECTED SITE SALES VOLUME: $38,110,500 $89,980,020 $124,232,160 $168,750,660

TOTAL WARRANTED FLOOR SPACE (sq.ft.): (3) $/Sq. Ft. Productivty ($365/sq. ft.) 104,412 246,521 340,362 462,331

$/Sq. Ft. Productivity ($395/sq. ft.) 96,482 227,798 314,512 427,217

$/Sq. Ft. Productivity ($425/sq. ft.) 89,672 211,718 292,311 397,060

Notes: 1) Derived from: Statistics Canada Tables 355-0006; Table 080-0020 & Tetrad Sitewise 2.5. For purposes of this high level analysis, BC per capita expenditure figures have been utilized. Assumed real per capita expenditure increase of 1% per annum 2) Inflow factor to account for purchases of off-site residents, WeTown employees living off-site, etc. 3) Productivity adapted from Statistics Canada Table 080-0023 Retail Trade Survey Sales Per Square Foot For purposes of this preliminary analysis, year 1 of the project is considered 2022. Source: Urbanics Consultants Ltd.

CONVENIENCE RETAIL/NON-DSTM

A forecast for those retail categories of a more convenience orientation, including food and beverage stores, eating and drinking facilities, health and personal care stores, and service- commercial uses is provided in Table 37. For this category market shares of on-site resident purchases have been assumed to increase from 55% to 75%. In addition, a 15% inflow factor has been applied across the study period.

The high-level analysis displays total on-site sales reaching approximately $70 million by year 5 of project development, and approaching $250 million by year 20. Assuming an industry-planning productivity ratio of $635 per square feet, nearly 400,000 square feet would be warranted by the end of the study period in 2034.

Table 37 - Retail Market Demand - Convenience Retail

RETAIL MARKET DEMAND CONVENIENCE RETAIL/NON-DSTM YEAR

1-5 6-10 11-15 16-20

On-Site Population 10,900 16,952 22,269 28,781 Per Capita Expenditures (1 $8,632 $9,072 $9,535 $10,022 Expenditure Potential $94,091,000 $153,797,000 $212,341,000 $288,434,000

Projected Site Market Share 65% 75% 75% 75% Projected Site Sales Volume $61,159,150 $115,347,750 $159,255,750 $216,325,500

INFLOW AS % OF SALES VOLUME: 15% $9,173,873 $17,302,163 $23,888,363 $32,448,825

TOTAL PROJECTED SITE SALES VOLUME: $70,333,023 $132,649,913 $183,144,113 $248,774,325

TOTAL WARRANTED FLOOR SPACE (sq.ft.): (2 $/Sq. Ft. Productivty ($600/sq. ft.) 117,222 221,083 305,240 414,624

$/Sq. Ft. Productivity ($635/sq. ft.) 110,761 208,898 288,416 391,771

$/Sq. Ft. Productivity ($670/sq. ft.) 104,975 197,985 273,349 371,305

Notes: 1) Derived from: Statistics Canada Tables 355-0006; Table 080-0020 & Tetrad Sitewise 2.5. For purposes of this high level analysis, BC per capita expenditure figures have been utilized. Assumed real per capita expenditure increase of 1% per annum 2) Productivity adapted from Statistics Canada Table 080-0023 Retail Trade Survey Sales Per Square Foot For purposes of this preliminary analysis, year 1 of the project is considered 2022. Source: Urbanics Consultants Ltd.

OTHER RETAIL USES & FORECAST SUMMARY

The consultant has also provided an indication of additional space opportunities that contain retail/office related qualities and entertainment qualities.

This includes financial institutional and professional arts office space. Financial institutional space includes banks, mortgage brokers, investment bankers, financial advisers and other financial related uses. Professional arts space includes space being used by a person with an occupation that involves any professional or technical service such as doctors, dentists, veterinarians, real estate agencies etc. These uses may or may not utilize a retail storefront or locate in an office space. Generally, each of these components are included as a share of between 6-8% of retail space. The consultant has estimated a 15% share of retail space yielding over 100,000 sq. ft. of such uses by year 20.

The consultant has also provided an estimate of Other retail uses of an entertainment orientation, including commercial entertainment and commercial recreation. A preliminary estimate of such uses for the WeTown project yields upwards of 250,000 sq. ft.

Combining the forecasts for this quasi-retail/office/entertainment space suggests that over the course of the study period a total approximately 1.2 million sq. ft. of retail/additional space opportunities is supported by year 20 of project development.

Table 38 - Retail Forecast Summary

RETAIL FORECAST SUMMARY YEAR 1-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 DSTM 96,482 227,798 314,512 427,217 CONVENIENCE 110,761 208,898 288,416 391,771 FINANCIAL AND PROFESSIONAL ARTS (1) 30,750 66,150 89,850 124,050 OTHER (2) 100,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 TOTAL RETAIL SPACE (SQ. FT.) 338,000 753,000 943,000 1,193,000

(1) Financial Institutional - includes banks, mortgage brokers, investment bankers, financial advisors and other financial related uses. Professional Arts Office - Includes space being used by occupations that involve professional or technical services such as doctors, dentists, veterinarians, real estate agencies, etc. These uses may or may not utilize a retail storefront or locate in an office space. (2) Other - includes commercial entertainment, commercial recreation, cinemas, etc. Source: Urbanics Consultants Ltd.

11.0 HOTEL LAND USE FORECAST

The following section explores the hotel market opportunity on-site, with the ultimate goal of rationalizing the amount of hotel space (in terms of the number of rooms) that might potentially be warranted at WeTown. The market shares employed assume that WeTown is developed as envisioned with a high-technology focus and approximately 17,000 workers and 30,000 residents.

Table 39 compares historical population to the relative known hotel room supply in both the Fraser Valley Region and Metro Vancouver. By comparing census population figures to the hotel room count, a ratio of the number of people per hotel room can be derived. The supply of hotel rooms was determined using information from a variety of industry sources including the BC Accommodation Guide and CBRE Hotels.

Using BC Stats population forecasts and the hotel inventory room count, the consultant has undertaken a high level forecast the warranted demand for the hotel accommodation, in terms of number of rooms extending to the year 2041.

As shown in Table 39, in 2018, the ratio of people per hotel room in the study area (Fraser Valley and Metro Vancouver) is 117, based on an estimated supply of 25,105 rooms. The ratio of people per hotel room is forecast to decline slightly over the course of the study period at a rate of 0.4% per annum in anticipation of increasing demand for overnight accommodations in the wider region.

By the end of the study period in 2041, total growth in hotel rooms is forecast to be approximately 11,000 rooms in the Fraser Valley and Metro Vancouver Regions.

Table 39 - Hotel Market Demand Fraser Valley RD & Metro Vancouver

HOTEL MARKET DEMAND Fraser Valley RD & Metro Vancouver Population Projections 2014 2017 2018 2022 2026 2031 2036 2041 Fraser Valley RD 290,119 305,267 309,456 326,090 342,833 363,197 382,690 401,432 Metro Vancouver 2,481,141 2,592,346 2,628,420 2,773,836 2,924,186 3,110,183 3,285,053 3,446,251 Total Population 2,771,260 2,897,613 2,937,876 3,099,926 3,267,019 3,473,380 3,667,743 3,847,683

Total Hotel Room Inventory 24,315 24,588 25,105

Population to Hotel Room Ratio 114 118 117

Projected Ratio (1) 115 113 111 109 107

Hotel Room Demand Analyses 2022 2026 2031 2036 2041 Hotel Room Demand Projection 26,918 28,827 31,269 33,687 36,055

Incremental Hotel Room Demand 1,813 1,909 2,441 2,418 2,368

Cumulative Hotel Room Demand 1,813 3,722 6,164 8,582 10,950

(1) Projected to decline by 0.4% per annum Sources: BC Stats, Sub-Provincial Population Projections (2017) BC Accommodation Guide, CBRE Hotels Urbanics Consultants Ltd.

The next step is to determine what share of this demand can be ‘captured’ at the subject site. There are a number of factors that must be considered when determining market share projections for hotel facilities, namely:

x Economic influences that may impact hotel development, x Supply factors such as competing development areas, market supply gaps etc., x The extent to which the subject site development leverages its proximity to the Fraser Valley/Metro Vancouver regions and associated attractions, x The degree of “destinationness” manifested by the WeTown development as it pertains to creating an attractive mix of land uses, including major traffic generating uses, and public spaces, x The class and quality of hotel operator, x The breadth of hotel amenities and complementary facilities, particularly as regards to the inclusion of some conferencing and meeting facilities, as well as other complementary uses such as eating and drinking and entertainment facilities. At a 5% share of incremental demand for the Fraser Valley/Metro Vancouver Region, some 550 hotel rooms are forecasted on-site by year 20 of development. For demonstration purposes, an 8% share yields close to 900 hotel rooms. The consultant assumes a 5% share of the wider region’s demand to be appropriate for the WeTown project. As noted in the Hotel Supply section, given the premise of WeTown to attract high-tech oriented employment uses, a quality hotel property designed for the corporate market with state-of-the-art business and conferencing facilities should be further explored for the subject site.

Indeed, the extent of hotel demand is tied to how successful the project is in terms of creating a regional destination and the extent of complementary land uses on-site, including major office development and the identified accelerant uses.

Table 40 - Hotel Market Demand WeTown Site

HOTEL MARKET DEMAND WETOWN SITE YEAR 1-5 6-10 11-15 16-20

FVRD & Metro Vancouver Hotel Room Demand 28,827 31,269 33,687 36,055 Cumulative Demand 3,722 6,164 8,582 10,950 Incremental Demand 1,909 2,441 2,418 2,368

WETOWN MARKET SHARE

At 5% Share of Demand Number of Rooms (Incremental) 95 122 121 118 Number of Rooms (Cumulative) 186 308 429 547 Floorspace, sq. ft. (Cumulative) 111,669 184,906 257,449 328,489

At 8% Share of Demand Number of Rooms (Incremental) 153 195 193 189 Number of Rooms (Cumulative) 298 493 687 876 Floorspace, sq. ft. (Cumulative) 178,670 295,850 411,918 525,583

Footnotes: 1) For purposes of this analysis, year 1 assumed to be 2022. 2) 600 sq. ft. per hotel room. Excludes banquet halls, conference facilities etc. - included in "other uses"

12.0 OTHER MAJOR LAND USES

A detailed programming plan for amenity and public service uses would warrant a separate study at a time when the project is further advanced in its conceptualization. Any amenity and public service plan should be developed closely in coordination with Abbotsford city staff in order to maintain alignment with municipal strategic goals.

In any case, several principles can be established at this early stage:

x In order for WeTown to be a truly complete community, it should be expected that amenities and public service space will be provided during every phase of project construction. This will ensure no imbalances are created during the 20-year build-out.

x At nearly 30,000 residents a full-sized community centre should be incorporated into the plans. Abundant indoor and outdoor recreation space should be included.

x A full range of K-12 education and childcare space must be planned for.

Table 41 lists a selection of the amenities that could be desired for WeTown:

Table 41 - Other Uses

OTHER USES CIVIC, EDUCATION, EVENT, RECREATION, HEALTH

AMENITY TYPE

CIVIC FACILTIES Farmer's market, community centre(s), library EDUCATION The timing of amenity construction is envisioned to be K-12 public and private education, preschools, childcare space closely coordinated with residential completions - EVENT FACILITIES ensuring that WeTown serves as a complete community Conference, meeting, and networking space - can be associated from day 1. Total amenity space area at build-out may either with hotel operators or independent range from 800,000 to 2,000,000 sq. ft. PUBLIC RECREATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE Indoor and outdoor recreation. Items to consider: public gym, pool, tennis courts, playing fields HEALTHCARE AND SAFETY Fire/ambulance station, public clinic, supportive seniors' housing Source: Urbanics Consultants Ltd.

*farmer’s market business model is yet to be determined – could be either a public, non-profit, or private enterprise.

75 13.0 LAND USE CONCEPT SUMMARY

Table 42 summarizes the proposed WeTown development concept across all uses. All lines, unless otherwise noted, denote incremental absorption of space in the given 5-year period. On- site residential and on-site workforce populations are also tabulated on an incremental basis per 5-year period.

Collectively, if all assumptions are met and a marketing plan is successfully executed on, WeTown at full build-out has the potential to host 17,849 jobs, 28,781 residents, and a total of 15,500,000 sq. ft. of space across all uses.

Construction phasing is illustrated as biased towards first phase. Given the lengthy build-out of the project, doing so will help maintain a positive NPV.

Table 42 - Phasing Plan Summary

PHASING PLAN SUMMARY OFFICE, ACCELERANT, RESIDENTIAL, RETAIL, HOTEL, OTHER YEAR 1-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 Total OFFICE USES (sq. ft.) 750,000 450,000 480,000 470,000 2,150,000 ACCELERANT USES - UNIVERSITY, RESEARCH INSTITUTE, INCUBATOR (sq. ft.) 600,000 350,000 300,000 200,000 1,450,000 RESIDENTIAL (sq. ft.) 3,575,000 1,970,000 1,737,000 2,086,000 9,368,000 RETAIL (sq. ft.) 336,000 421,000 181,000 262,000 1,200,000 HOTEL (sq. ft.) (1) 150,000 178,500 328,500 OTHER (sq. ft.) (2) 300,000 200,000 250,000 250,000 1,000,000 TOTAL BUILDING AREA (sq. ft.) 5,560,000 3,540,000 2,950,000 3,450,000 15,500,000 TOTAL CUMULATIVE BUILDING AREA (sq. ft.) 5,560,000 9,100,000 12,050,000 15,500,000 Number of Residents By Phase 10,900 6,052 5,317 6,512 28,781 Number of Workers By Phase 6,218 4,189 3,654 3,788 17,849

14.0 MARKETING AND IMPLEMENTATION

Given the scale of the WeTown concept, the success of the project will depend in large part on the ability of the project proponent and marketing team to make a case that goes beyond highlighting specific built amenities on the site. Large multinationals, international education and research institutions, and a portion of prospective residents must also be convinced on the merits of Canada, British Columbia, and Abbotsford relative to other jurisdictions.

Examing the strengths of the three jurisdictions, the consultant belives that the following are highly attractive attributes that serve to the boost the appeal of WeTown as an ideal site in which to make a long-term investment:

CANADA

x Flexible and permissive immigration regime, especially in comparison to the United States.

o Crucially, an openness to multiculturalism and immigration is one of the core components of Canadian national identity – meaning the present immigration framework is unlikely to move in an illiberal direction. This is the certainty required for a long-term investment in an industry partially dependent on highly skilled migrant labour. The United States has demonstrated an unwillingness to permit skilled immigration proportionate to tech sector employment need,3 in addition to continued uncertainty as even legal immigration is hotly debated.

x The most educated country in the world, as measured by tertiary educational attainment.

o By a substantial margin, Canada has the highest tertiary education attainment rate.4 56% of the adult population completed a vocational program or university degree, with Japan in 2nd place at 51%. 46% of Americans completed a tertiary program. As the global economy continues shifting towards knowledge-based activities, Canada’s workforce will be among the best prepared to participate in the required high-skill positions.

x Exceptionally stable and transparent, even compared to other democracies.

o In an era when even established western democracies are showing signs of instability and a tendency towards political extremism, Canada has thus far remained immune. Canada ranks as the 11th most stable country in the world according to the 2018 Fragile States Index, (United States: 25th) and the 8th most

3 Noah Smith, Bloomberg View: Cuts to skilled immigration degrade a US strength (2018) https://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/cuts-to-skilled-immigration-degrade-a-us-strength/ 4 Abigail Hess, CNBC: The 10 most educated countries in the world (2018) https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/07/the-10-most-educated-countries-in-the-world.html

transparent according to Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index 2017 (US: 16th).

BRITISH COLUMBIA’S LOWER MAINLAND

x A leading and expanding global financial centre.

o Vancouver is rapidly emerging as a key global financial centre, ranking as the 15th most significant global financial centre in 2018, up from 17th in 2017, and 33rd in 2008.5 The region’s emergence as a centre of finance addresses what was previously seen as one of Vancouver’s missing assets necessary to host a world- class economy.

x A highly desirable international migration destination.

o Consistently ranking as the city with the highest quality of life in North America and at least the 5th highest in the world, the Vancouver region is set to remain a highly desirable destination for skilled workers and students. 31,277 net international migrants selected Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley as their new home in the 2016-2017 period, continuing years of strong international migrant-driven growth. BC hosts 100,000 international students each year, predominantly in the Lower Mainland.

x A geography highly conducive to international collaboration.

o BC’s time zone enables the possibility of collaborating with Europe and Asia during the same working day while completely synchronized with global technology hubs in Silicon Valley and Seattle. In terms of flight time, Vancouver is the nearest North American city to East Asia, and the nearest west coast city to Europe. Despite its considerably smaller economy relative to Ontario and Quebec, BC leads Canada in trade volume with Asia.

ABBOTSFORD

x Housing affordability – a rarity within a coastal metro area.

o With average monthly apartment rents of only 58% the Vancouver average and townhouse purchase costs of only 42% the average in East Vancouver, Abbotsford avoids the housing affordability problem frequently cited as placing a constraint on Vancouver’s growth and ability to attract skilled workers. WeTown will further add to Abbotsford’s ability to continually expand the quantity and range of available housing.

5 Mark Yeandle, Z/Yen Partners Limited: The Global Financial Centres Index 23 (2018) http://www.longfinance.net/Publications/GFCI23.pdf

78 x An ambitious local university, UFV.

o The University of the Fraser Valley continues to scale-up. Already home to a substantial 15,000+ students, the university aims to develop existing local strengths in agriculture and aviation while expanding into other high-tech fields. The University is also embarking on an internationalization initiative that seeks to expand collaboration + partnership opportunities at the institutional and student level, while seeking to align academic programming with global economic trends.

x Access to world-class natural amenities.

o Abbotsford offers convenient access to a number of natural and recreational amenities. One of the world’s premiere wine and leisure regions, the Okanagan Valley, is only a 3 hour drive away - saving a substantial amount of travel time relative to Vancouver. Excellent skiing opportunities at Mt. Baker and Sasquatch Mountain Resort are also in close proximity. WeTown’s site location on Sumas Mountain location boasts a bucolic and serene environment with spectacular views, exposing its population to daily natural beauty.

Effectively communicating the above points to prospective tenants should be seen as a precondition to the success of the project. The governance, living standards, and opportunities of all three jurisdictions are globally exceptional; collectively, they form the project’s most important asset.

APPENDIX 1 – THE FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION

“When compared with previous industrial revolutions, the Fourth is evolving at an exponential rather than a linear pace.”

- Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum

One of WeTown’s primary aims – and indeed a precondition for its success – is to ensure alignment with and facilitation of global economic trends. In a similar manner, both British Columbia and Abbotsford must ensure that there is suitable opportunity for emerging types of economic growth to take place.

The World Economic Forum takes the view that global industrial economic development can be characterized in terms of not one, but four industrial revolutions:

x The first industrial revolution, in the 18th and early 19th centuries, was characterized by rapid urbanization and the development of the first factories, aided by the steam + water power and the first machine tools.

x The second revolution is considered to have taken place in the 40-50 years preceding the First World War. Electrification, advances in mechanics, and the assembly line helped conceive the era of mass production.

x The digital revolution began in the 1980s, marked by automation enabled by the development of the internet, computing, and information technology.

x The term “Fourth Revolution” was first used in 2016 by the World Economic Forum. Building on the digital technology advancements of the third revolution, it is presently characterized by breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, robotics, biotechnology, quantum computing, nanotechnology, and embedded sensors (Internet of Things).6

The distinguishing factor of the fourth revolution has been described as the integration of digital, physical, and biological systems; digital revolution technologies were not as characterized by integration to the same extent.

There is no shortage of formerly prosperous regions which succeeded in one era of industrial development, but subsequently failed to provide a value proposition for economic activities associated with the subsequent era: Northern England, the American rust belt, Germany’s Ruhr region, Nord-Pas-de-Calais in France, and Northeast China are just some examples. These regions are generally marked by high unemployment, stagnant or declining wages, and poor social outcomes – underlining the point that present prosperity is no guarantee of future prosperity, even in the medium term.

6 So Young Kim, Triple Helix Association: “The Fourth Industrial Revolution and the Triple Helix” (2017) https://www.triplehelixassociation.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Theme-paper-THC2017.pdf

POLICY IMPLICATIONS OF THE FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION

WEF founder Klaus Schwab writes that, as with earlier industrial revolutions, the fourth industrial revolution is likely to raise global quality of life, income per capita, and the rate of economic growth. Rapid technological developments are likely to vastly reduce transportation and communication costs – opening a massive array of new trading opportunities.7 However, it also has the potential to exacerbate wealth inequality, with Schwab and others predicting a labour market bifurcation into “low skill/low pay” and “high skill/high pay.”

It will require a concerted effort on the part of policymakers to maximize public exposure to the vast upside benefits, while minimizing the share of the population exposed to the downside risk of falling into the “low skill/low pay” bracket. Jurisdictions that succeed in becoming centres of production for fourth-revolution economic activities are destined to see the most substantial gains, while insulating themselves from disruption to traditional industry.

Any policy approach cannot focus on either the private or public sector in isolation. Writing for a European Union think tank, economist Matthias Schäfer emphasizes that a symbiotic relationship between academic institutions and private sector firms will be the key to prosper in the fourth revolution:

“Universities would play a crucial role. They would carry over the fruits of pure science to applied science. And they would also provide labs and workspaces with the aim of developing entrepreneurial skills and fostering the demand for new products, services and applications.”8

There is a crucial distinction between government investment in the capacity of a given jurisdiction to innovate, and in attempting to make direct investments in firms designated as national champions. Schäfer warns about the later approach: “Policy on the fourth industrial revolution should focus on strengthening member states’ capacity to improve the potential for innovation in the private sector, and not on picking winners and creating EU champions of industry.” The decline of Nortel and Research in Motion (or in the United States, Solyndra) demonstrate the shortcoming of relying on national champions, as opposed to fostering a general climate conducive to high-tech innovation and entrepreneurship.

WETOWN’S ROLE

WeTown is uniquely positioned to be a major regional/national facilitator of the types of academic- private collaboration critical to delivering on the promise of the tomorrow’s economic growth. In providing space for research, academic, incubation, and large-scale office uses on the same site, WeTown presents a clean-slate opportunity to construct an environment designed to facilitate the integrated approach necessary for Abbotsford and BC to take positions as economic leaders in the short, medium, and long terms.

For the complete vision to come to fruition, a willingness on the part of academic institutions and governments must be present. However even if the academic component of WeTown is not built- out to the scale as envisioned in this report, the opportunity to host a concentration of homegrown

7 Klaus Schwab, World Economic Forum: “The Fourth Industrial Revolution: what it means and how to respond” (2016) https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-what-it-means- and-how-to-respond/ 8 Matthias Schäfer, Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies: “The fourth industrial revolution: How the EU can lead it” (2018) http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1781685818762890

81 and multinational high-tech firms will itself constitute a major step forward in the region’s economic competitiveness.

APPENDIX 2 – CANADIAN R&D COMPETITIVENESS

With an increasing shift to a more knowledge-based economy, it is important for Canada and BC to further explore and develop the R&D and technology sectors to stay competitive on a global scale.

There is research to suggest that Canada is greatly lagging behind peer countries on a number of fronts related to innovation performance.

A recent study on Innovation by the Conference Board of Canada has placed Canada 12th among 16 peer countries, and was given an overall rating of 'C'. Canada is continuing to lose ground over time, dropping three positions from the previous report card. The decline is less a result of Canada falling substantially on any of the indicators, rather a few international peers have substantially improved their performance on some indicators. Some of these indicators examined include: Public R&D; Researchers; Entrepreneurial Ambition; Venture Capital; Business R&D; ICT investment; Patents; and Labour productivity. Some of the top performing countries include Sweden, Switzerland, Denmark and the United States.

On a provincial scale, BC was among the poorest performing with a 'D' rating, falling seven places to 17th of 26 comparator jurisdictions. Particularly weak areas of BC include Researchers engaged in R&D, ICT investment, Patents, Labour productivity, and Business R&D.

INNOVATION REPORT CARD RANKINGS

The Conference Board of Canada, How Canada Performs: Innovation (May 2018)

While venture capital per $1 million of GDP has increased in Greater Vancouver in recent years, when compared to San Francisco, Greater Vancouver is greatly lagging. Venture capital per $1 million of GDP is now 10 times higher in San Francisco and the gap with Greater Vancouver is growing, according to the 2018 Greater Vancouver Economic Scorecard.

Other research leads to similar findings. The Council of Canadian Academics report on the current state of R&D in Canada concluded the following:

x Canada's international standing as a leading performer of research is at risk due to a sustained slide in private and public R&D investment. Canada's total R&D expenditures between 2006 and 2015 saw virtually no growth, and R&D as a share of GDP has consistently declined since 2001. Canada would need to more than double expenditures to equal R&D intensity of world-leading countries.

CANADIAN R&D INVESTMENT

Council of Canadian Academics, Competing in a Global Innovation Economy: The Current State of R&D in Canada (2018)

x Canada is not producing research at levels comparable to other leading countries on most enabling and strategic technologies.

x Canadian research is comparatively less specialized and less esteemed in the core fields of the natural sciences and engineering. The lack of expertise in these fields could hinder Canada in emerging research areas.

x Canada is now a net exporter of patents, and the outflow of patents is accelerating. In 2003, approximately 96% of the patents invented in Canada were owned in Canada. In 2014 the figure had dropped to 74%.

x Too many of Canada's tech start-ups seek their opportunities for growth elsewhere, leading to a loss of economic and commercial benefits.

x Canadian STEM graduates are increasingly seeking opportunities in the US due to higher salaries offered. A study conducted by the Munk School of Global Affairs’ Innovation Policy Lab revealed that 25% of Canadian STEM graduates were working in the US. The average tech salary San Francisco is approximately US$140,000, and US$132,000 in Seattle. Comparable average salaries are US$73,000 in Toronto and US$80,000 in Vancouver.

Strengths

This does not mean that Canada is failing on all fronts. Canada has several strengths which should be highlighted. These include:

x Canada has the highest level of educational attainment in the OECD, and compares well on most measures of research skills and education.

x Canada remains a leading global contributor to research in many fields with world-leading talent, researchers, facilities and programs in combination with a stable macroeconomic climate and a diverse and welcoming social environment.

Initiatives

The takeaway is that more needs to be done on all levels for Canada to compete globally. Some measures include:

x Increase spending on innovation (public and business R&D, ICT investment, and venture capital, where appropriate)

x Create a healthy business climate (adequate market demand, strong and reliable supply chains, transportation, and communication infrastructure, favourable tax rates, appropriate regulation, and access to capital and expertise)

Recent provincial and federal government initiatives may help to propel Canada forward, however the effects will not be known for several years. Such initiatives include the Superclusters program, the Innovative Solutions Canada procurement program, and renewal of the Venture Capital Action Plan.

Role of Universities

Increasingly, Universities are becoming the initiators of breakthrough inventions. Indeed, strategically designed universities - particularly of an international reach - aide in the generation of effective start-up businesses/industries. A higher learning institution with a strong research and technology backbone serves as a means to create dynamic clusters that accelerate economic growth and international competitiveness. They provide a common location for collaboration

85 between and across government, academia and industry, supporting the entire innovation ecosystem – from the inception of ideas to commercialization. They are innovation drivers, innovation cultivators, and are neighbourhood-building amenities.

In short, there are growing concerns for Canada's innovation performance. While early-stage entrepreneurial activities and investments are on the rise, persistent declines in foundational elements of Canada's innovation capacity continue to undermine performance.

APPENDIX 3 – BRITISH COLUMBIA’S TECH SECTOR

SECTOR PROFILE

A comprehensive overview of BC’s technology sector9 is compiled annually by BC Stats. The most recent edition, covering statistics through the end of 2016, provided the following overview into the scale, growth, and context of BC’s tech industry.

FACT SHEET: BC STATS REPORT – PROFILE OF THE BC TECHNOLOGY SECTOR, 2017 EDITION

Workforce x Employment in B.C.’s tech sector increased 4.1% in 2016, to 106,430 – an all-time high. o 2016 was the sixth consecutive year of growth in employment for B.C.’s tech sector. x The technology sector employs approximately 5% of B.C.’s workforce, more than the mining, oil and gas, and forestry sectors combined, including manufacturing activities related to those resources.

Wages and salaries x B.C. tech employees earn weekly average salaries of $1,690, about 85% higher than the average B.C. wage. x Wages and salaries in B.C.’s tech sector reached a new peak for the sixth consecutive year in 2016, climbing 7.4% to just under $9.4 billion. x B.C. tech workers earned about $1,690 a week, compared to $920 per week for the average B.C. worker. This is also higher than the Canadian tech sector average of $1,470.

Firms x The number of B.C. tech companies grew by 3.3% in 2016, for a total of 10,236 businesses. x From 2007 to 2016, total venture capital (VC) investment in B.C. has increased by 215.2%. o B.C. is third among Canadian provinces in terms of total VC investment dollars.

Economic activity x B.C.’s tech sector generates about 7% of provincial gross domestic product (GDP), placing it in the same range as manufacturing and health care. x B.C. tech revenues jumped 9.2% in 2016, to $28.9 billion, the highest level ever recorded. x Revenue grew in both the manufacturing and service sectors, with a 6.2% increase for manufacturing and a 9.7% rise for services. x There was a 3.5% rise in B.C. tech GDP in 2016, contributing almost $14.6 billion to B.C.’s overall economic output. Source: BC Stats report - Profile of the British Columbia Technology Sector (2017) and Ministry of Jobs, Trade, and Technology

9 BC Stats report: Profile of the British Columbia technology sector, 2017 edition (2017) https://news.gov.bc.ca/factsheets/bc-stats-report-profile-of-the-british-columbia-technology-sector-2017- edition-1

A keen observer will note that, while strong, the sector’s GDP growth of 3.5% lagged the province’s total GDP growth of 3.9%. The report suspects exceptional real estate sector performance as the primary reason for the gap. Within the tech sector, high-tech manufacturing (5.3%) and film (9.3%) posted the strongest growth; engineering, telecommunications, and other tech services lagged. BC technology sector is leading North America in revenue growth – 9.2% in 2016, faster than any other province, and far above the United States at 3.6%. This is consistent with the trend of BC outperforming the Canadian average, with the gap widening by a greater margin each year since 2012. Similarly, BC led Canada in tech sector job growth at 4.1%, compared to the Canadian average of 0.3%.

Two further portions of the industry profile stand-out as partciularly relevant to WeTown.

x The report noted that 89% of BC’s tech sector GDP (and 87% of jobs) are consituted by service activities, with only 11% of GDP in manufacturing. While the WeTown concept doesn’t necessarily preclude manufacuting, it certainly is more conducive to office- oriented employment space than large scale manufacturing – dovetailing with BC’s strength. However, it should be noted that the manufacturing portion of the tech sector is growing substantially faster than the industry average.

x As the home to 69% of businesses in the sector The Lower Mainland-Southwest region (Metro Vancouver + Fraser Valley) is unequestionably the epicentre of BC’s tech. 6,889 tech business call the region home, up 3.5% from 2016. Vancouver Island/Coast is in 2nd place with 16% of BC’s tech firms. There is no forseeable reason for why future growth in the technology sector would shift away from Lower Mainland-Southwest to other regions.

Overall, the picture is one of near-universal optimism, with both the provincial government and BC Tech Association predicting continued growth into the foreseeable future.

WARNING SIGNS

Though the overall picture remains highly positive, the long-term competitiveness of BC’s tech economy is not without points of concern. In recent years, only half of the 7500 postings for jobs in the sector are filled.10 In their 2016 TechTalentBC Report, the BC Tech Association sees the potential for a scenario where such a persistent labour shortage is sustained. In such a scenario, it’s possible that industry will continue to invest in BC, maxing-out the available labour supply and having the growth rate dictated by that constraint. However it is also possible that labour supply constraints will be viewed as a significant deterrent by multinationals seeking to expand, and would thus look to other cities.

Another important reality check is the scale of BC’s tech sector – despite sometimes being dubbed “Silicon Valley North” in media articles, the present scale of the sector is likely not large enough

10 BC Tech Association, 2016 TechTalentBC Report https://www.workbc.ca/getmedia/8d38ac6f-82d4- 4db1-b0bf-ac0f77d78af5/2016_TechTalentBC_Report.pdf.aspx

88 to generate a critical mass that establishes permanency for the Lower Mainland’s status as a technology hub:

x BC’s tech sector is the third largest in Canada – behind Ontario and Quebec. o Ontario remains Canada’s technology heavyweight, accounting for 43% of the country’s high-tech sector GDP. o Quebec accounts for 24%, while BC and Alberta each account for around 13% (with BC marginally ahead).

x Tech plays a small role in BC’s economy compared to most US states. o BC’s pacific northwest neighbours, Washington State and Oregon, are home to tech sectors that generate 20% of state GDP – compared to 7% in BC. o 30 states have tech sectors responsible for a higher share of total GDP than BC.

Although home to firms and academic programs conducting world-leading research, a recent Conference Board of Canada study11 finds that BC’s innovation performance is slipping – falling to position 17 out of 26 OECD jurisdictions, and earning a “D” grade where “D-“ is the lowest possible score. BC’s score was particularly hurt by having a low amount of researchers per capita engaged in R&D, and for very low business investment in R&D as a share of provincial GDP. In both metrics, no international OECD jurisdiction performed more poorly than BC. The report authors suggest increasing public R&D spending as a means to increase the quantity of research positions and researchers, while low business R&D investment is a function of BC’s average firm size skewing towards small and medium firms.

The report also highlighted business investment in ICT (information and communication technology), patents per capita, and labour productivity (GDP per hours worked) as areas of particular weakness for BC. These poor metrics are again closely linked to the fact that BC tech firms skew towards small and mid-sized business as opposed to large firms – a familiar story throughout the BC economy, not just in the technology sector. Large firms generally have higher productivity and capacity to invest in physical and intellectual capital.

As a jurisdiction with a relatively small tech sector, improving BC’s innovation performance must be seen as crucial to developing the sector into a long-term engine for prosperity.

WETOWN’S ROLE

The programming of WeTown is designed to build on the current strengths of BC’s high-tech sector, while facilitating an investment in innovation capacity.

Employment space purpose-built for large tech employers will form the overwhelming majority of office space at WeTown. It is anticipated that the opportunity to locate to purpose-built space

11 Conference Board of Canada, How Canada Performs: Innovation (2017) https://www.conferenceboard.ca/press/newsrelease/2018/05/14/british-columbia-loses-substantial- ground-in-conference-board's-innovation-report-card

89 situated in a picturesque community with abundant housing – while still within a large metro area – will prove attractive to large multinational tech firms, and will therefore result in BC attracting large tech operations at a higher rate than in the absence of WeTown. In turn, being home to a higher proportion of large firms will result in more competitive rates of innovation.

Similarly, WeTown provides an opportunity for the creation of institutions that will vastly enhance BC’s innovation capacity. The size of the site renders it possible to build space for virtually any desired size of research institution and/or university. Additionally, co-location with major high-tech firms should help spur a virtuous circle of collaboration, partnerships, and innovation.

APPENDIX 4 – MAJOR STEM RESEARCH FIELDS

STEM (science, technology, engineering, mathematics) refers to the broad range of academic disciplines contained within the four categories.12 Together, STEM fields span the entirety of the technological life cycle: from basic research into pure mathematics and “traditional” scientific fields, to the engineering of commercial solutions in pursuit of practical problem solving.

Investment in Canada’s STEM education and research capacity is considered critical for the future of the national economy as the sectoral balance is expected to continue shifting towards knowledge-based fields.13 Urbanics undertook research into the significant players – universities, research institutes, and corporations – in key STEM sub-fields seen as most likely to attract additional research capital.

Some high-level findings include:

x On the North American scale, specialized technological institutes appear to max-out at ~200,000-300,000 sq. ft., and 200-250 researchers.

x Of the fields examined, Nanotechnology appears to have the most robustly supported existing network of institutes and international collaborations.

x Multiple large Asian universities are among the global top performers in any given technological field.

Nanotechnology

In 2011, governmental funding for nanotechnology research amounted to $67.5 billion globally.14 It is estimated that the global nanotechnology marketing could reach US $1.5-3.0 trillion.15 Of the global top 20 universities for nanotechnology, 8 are in the US, 6 in China, 3 in South Korea, 2 Singapore, and 2 in Europe.16

12 Congressional Research Service: Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) Education: A Primer (2012) https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42642.pdf 13 Policy Horizons Canada: Maximizing Canada’s Engagement in the Global Knowledge-Based Economy: 2017 and Beyond (2010) http://www.horizons.gc.ca/en/content/maximizing-canada%E2%80%99s- engagement-global-knowledge-based-economy-2017-and-beyond%C2%A0 14Cientifica: Global Funding of Nanotechnologies & Its Impact (2011) http://cientifica.com/wp- content/uploads/downloads/2011/07/Global-Nanotechnology-Funding-Report-2011.pdf 15 National Research Council of Canada: Evaluation of the National Institute for Nanotechnology (2016) https://www.nrc-cnrc.gc.ca/obj/doc/about-apropos/planning_reporting-planification_rapports/evaluation- evaluation/Final_NINT_evaluation_report_2016.pdf 16 ShanghaiRanking Consultancy: ShanghaiRanking’s Global Ranking of Academic Subjects 2017 – Nanoscience & Nanotechnology http://www.shanghairanking.com/Shanghairanking-Subject- Rankings/nanoscience-nanotechnology.html

Key institutions and universities:

The International Institute for Nanotechnology – created by Northwestern University (Evanston, Illinois) in 2000. One of the largest nanotechnology research hubs in the world, and the first in the US. Since inception, 20 start-ups have emerged from the institute, collectively attracting $1 billion in venture capital. Over 240 faculty members, and partnerships with universities in 30 countries. Key collaborations include Nanyang University in Singapore and Hunan University in China.

Nanyang Technological University – Singapore’s largest university. Globally, the top-ranked university for nanotechnology, and Asia’s top-ranked university overall. It has over 30,000 students, and an endowment of US $1.8 billion.

Massachusetts Institute of Technology – MIT.Nano, a 200,000 sq. ft. facility, will open imminently. It’s the largest capital project in MIT’s history. MIT says that 20% of its researchers across all fields are drawing on nanotechnology, and the school is currently ranked #2 globally for nanotechnology.

Georgia Institute for Electronics and Nanotechnology – Georgia Tech is ranked #3 globally for nanotechnology. Their IEN boasts 225,000 sq. ft. of facilities representing $400 million in investment, 249 faculty, and engagement with 72 universities.

The National Institute for Nanotechnology – partnership between the University of Alberta and the National Research Council of Canada, established in 2001. Features 74 scientific and technical staff. Annual budget averaging $34 million annually. A 2016 report found that the institute is struggling to become a national leader in nanotechnology leadership, far short of the initial vision of being an international leader.

Intel – as the world’s premiere microprocessor developer, Intel has spent heavily on R&D to continue to the trend observed in Moore’s Law. Nanotechnology is increasingly seen as primary area in which significant processor performance gains are to be had. The next generation of its business rests on its highly-anticipated 10 nanometre “Cannon Lake” architecture, which is expected to start shipping in volume beginning in 2019.17 In 2017, Intel expanded its Vancouver operations, which now measures 300 employees (Marine Gateway) that develop Solid State Drive and Wearable technologies.

Artificial Intelligence

Unlike nanotechnology, Canada is seen as a global leader in AI research.18 The Quebec-based AI Supply Chain Supercluster19 is the latest manifestation of government support for AI research

17 The Motley Fool: Intel Corporation Details 10-Nano Technology (2017) https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/03/29/intel-corporation-details-10-nano-technology.aspx 18 University Affairs, How Canada has emerged as a leader in artificial intelligence (2017) https://www.universityaffairs.ca/features/feature-article/canada-emerged-leader-artificial-intelligence/ 19 https://aisupplychain.ca/

92 and development, and two of the three scientists considered to be the founders of AI research are based in Canada. The Pan-Canadian Artificial Intelligence Strategy is channelling $125 million into AI research in Montreal, Toronto, and Edmonton. Globally, 5 out of 10 top AI institutions are located in Asia.20

Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences – A global powerhouse in both AI and robotics, founded in 1956. It’s one of 114 institutes of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, consisting of 60,000 researches in total. Based in Beijing. Features 800 professors and technical staff across 12 research departments.

Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence – Based in Seattle and created by Microsoft co- founder Paul Allen in 2013, the institute’s mandate is to foster scientific breakthroughs in AI technology. Includes an incubator and residency programs for incubators. Research staff of 80.

Montreal Institute for Learning Algorithms – A partnership between the Universitie de Montreal and McGill, it features 15 faculty members – including Yoshua Bengio, considered one of the 3 founders of AI. In addition to government funding, it’s received funding from Google and Microsoft (the first-ever recipient of funding from the Microsoft Ventures program).

Vector Institute for Artificial Intelligence – Launched at the University of Toronto in 2017, its mandate is to attract the best minds globally in AI. Geoffrey Hamilton, considered the father of deep learning, serves as chief scientific advisor. Features 22 faculty members.

Nanyang Institute of Technology – Ranked #3 globally for AI research.

Alphabet (Google): - According to The Economist, Alphabet is widely perceived as the market leader in AI research and application. Microsoft and IBM are also strong but take a more theoretical approach with a focus on publishing papers.

Robotics

Robotics research appears to be dominated by American universities - of the global top 20 institutions, only 3 are located in Asia.21 However, Japanese corporations appear to be the leaders in robotics development and application – a phenomenon partially driven by

20 Times Higher Education: Which countries and universities are leading on AI research? (2017) https://www.timeshighereducation.com/data-bites/which-countries-and-universities-are-leading-ai- research 21 ShanghaiRanking Consultancy: ShanghaiRanking’s Global Ranking of Academic Subjects 2017 – Automation & Control http://www.shanghairanking.com/Shanghairanking-Subject-Rankings/automation- control.html

93 demographic necessity.22 In Canada, the Next Generation of Manufacturing Supercluster (based in Ontario) is the latest federal government initiative supporting robotics innovation.

Carnegie Mellon Robotics Institute – The world’s largest dedicated robotics institute, 280 faculty and grad students work on applications spanning all fields of robotics, and AI. Operating since 1979. Home to the National Robotics Engineering Centre.

Harbin Institute of Technology - 120 researches focused on robotics. Ranked the 8th best university for robotics globally and hosts a national robotics program. One of China’s elite universities, with 37,000 students.

Institute for Robotics and Mechatronics – A University of Toronto initiative (13th best globally for robotics, #1 in Canada), features 45 faculty members working on robotics research.

Japanese corporations – Japanese firms are established as leaders in a number of robotic sub-fields. A rapidly aging demographic profile has left labour scarce for factory, service, and healthcare work - at the same time as a large senior population requires labour-intensive care. As a consequence, Japan has developed one of the world’s most sophisticated robotics industries: FANUC is the world’s largest manufacturer of industrial robots, Cyberdyne are a leader in medical robotics, while Panasonic are leaders in welding and medical applications.

Quantum Computing

Quantum technology promises to unleash a new era of computing applications presently impossible or difficult due to the limitations of binary computing technology.23 Recognizing this, the US government spends $200 million per year on quantum computing research.24 While a university ranking specifically for quantum computing cannot be found, significant institutions include:

The Institute for Quantum Computing – Founded in 2002 by the University of Waterloo with funding from Mike Lazaridis, the IQC is one of the largest quantum computing institutes in the world. It shares a 285,000 sq. ft. building with a nanotechnology research group. Over 200 researchers in multiple disciplines contribute to work aimed at advancing understanding of quantum mechanics and computing.

22 Joseph Quinlan, Merrill Lynch/US Trust: Investors should wake up to Japan’s robotic future (2017) https://www.ft.com/content/2cff1dba-9f87-11e7-8cd4-932067fbf946 23 University of Waterloo Institute for Quantum Computing: Quantum computing 101: https://uwaterloo.ca/institute-for-quantum-computing/quantum-computing-101 24 Arthur Herman, American Affairs: Winning the Race in Quantum Computing (2018) https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2018/05/winning-the-race-in-quantum-computing/

Quantum Computing Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory – Oak Ridge (located in Tennessee) is home to several of the world’s most advanced supercomputers. 63 researchers are dedicated to the Quantum Computing Institute.

National Laboratory for Quantum Information Sciences, Hefei – A staggeringly large, $10 billion USD facility is slated to open in 2020. It is prompting worries that China is overhauling the west in quantum computing leadership.

D-Wave Systems – Founded in in 1999, in 2011 D-Wave became the world’s first firm to bring a (supposedly) quantum computer to market. However, D-Wave’s products are the subject of long-running controversy as to whether they authentically are quantum computers. 170 employees are spread between its Burnaby headquarters (Canada Way business park corridor), two US locations, and Tokyo. Google, NASA, Lockheed Martin, and Los Alamos have all utilized D-Wave technology.

APPENDIX 5 - SPECIALIZED UNIVERSITIES WITH HIGH- TECH OFFICE SPACE- CASE STUDY SELECTION

North America is replete with examples of technology-oriented universities spurring the development of associated technology hubs home to established and new technology firms. Urbanics considers the below to be salient examples as the WeTown development plan is further refined.

Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute & Rensselaer Technology Park - Troy, New York

Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute: x 7,113 total enrolment (Fall 2015) x 441 FTE faculty x Student/Faculty Ratio of 15:1 x 275 acre campus x Established in 1824 x Among the top 50 Universities worldwide for technology x Focused on 5 signatures areas: biotechnology and the life sciences; energy and the environment; computational science and engineering; nanotechnology and advanced materials; and media, arts, science, and technology.

Rensselaer Technology Park: x Rensselaer Technology Park is a Division of the Institute that reports directly to the President. The institute is the owner/developer/operator of the multi-tenant rental space in the Park. x Located approximately 5 miles south of the University campus x Total of 1,250 acres (The Technology component comprises 450 acres) x Currently over 1,000,000 sq. ft. of building area with over 50 tenants, representing a wide variety of technologies ranging from electronic to physics research, from biotechnology to software. x Over 2,200 employees. x The Technology component comprises 450 acres in the core of the Park; A Housing component comprises 150 acres adjacent to the technology component servicing both the university and community and the Tech Park community; The Riverfront component comprises 150 acres for the development of a hotel/conference center, marina, recreation and additional residential or corporate facilities; an Open Space component of approximately 500 acres. x The first facility of the park was occupied in 1984 (26,000 sq. ft. building)

Univeristy of Waterloo & David Johnston Research + Technology Park - Waterloo, Ontario

University of Waterloo: x Opened in 1957 with 74 students x Today: 30,600 undergraduate, 5,300 graduate students x 21% International students x 1,139 full-time faculty x 100 acre campus x Top Comprehensive Research University in Canada x One of the world's top 50 engineering schools

David Johnston Research + Technology Park x Located on the University of Waterloo's North Campus x Supported by a partnership that includes the University, the Government of Canada, Province of Ontario, the Region of Waterloo, the City of Waterloo, Communitech, and Canada's Technology Triangle x Ground breaking for the Park was June 2002 x Designed to accommodate 1.2 million sq. ft. of office space on 120 acres x Currently some 860,000 sq. ft. and 3,500 employees x Contains an Accelerator Centre of approximately 20,000 sq. ft. which provides space for new and growing companies, and provides assistance as they bring new technology and products to the market x The Park has facilitated around 6,474 jobs and is estimated to create 9,892 jobs in the future x Advanced connectivity featuring a state-of-the-art fibre optic network x Over 250 spin-off companies developed through the University x Over 450 technology companies currently call the Region of Waterloo home

Stanford University & Stanford Research Park - Stanford/Palo Alto, California

Stanford University: x One of the world's leading research universities, known for its entrepreneurial character and its relationship with Silicon Valley x 16,122 total students; 6,994 undergraduates; 9,128 graduates x 2,153 faculty members; 4:1 student to faculty ratio x 8,180 acre total land holdings x More than 15.3 million sq. ft. of building area; nearly 700 major buildings x Areas of excellence range from the humanities to social sciences to engineering and the sciences. x 97% of undergraduates live on-campus x Established in 1885; opened in 1891

Stanford Research Park: x Founded in 1951, located 2 miles from the University x The purpose of the park was to provide a source of income, as the University was struggling financially in 1950. A master plan was developed to convert Stanford into an internationally recognized world-class research university. x A spirit of cooperation and sharing developed among the tenants, where companies would share ideas and even facilities to ensure the success of the region. This became the hallmark of Silicon Valley, as companies spread outward towards both San Francisco to the North and San Jose to the South. This sharing and open networking is often pointed to as a major element in the growth and success of the Silicon Valley. x The beginning of Silicon Valley is often described as when Stanford alumni David Packard and William Hewlett established a small electronics company in a Palo Alto garage in 1939 x Today, the park resides on 700 acres; approximately 10 million sq. ft. of developed buildings and facilities; more than 150 companies with 23,000 employees, occupying 162 buildings

98 x Companies are mainly scientific, technical, and research oriented with major representation in the fields of electronics, space, biotechnology, computer hardware and software, as well as law offices and consulting firms x Diverse community of companies, such as Hewlett Packard; Tesla; Nest; Skype x StartX - A non-profit business incubator associated with Stanford University; created by students in 2009. Stanford University, Stanford Hospital, Silicon Valley companies provide grants to StartX to invest in current and alumni StartX companies. x A 2012 study estimated that companies formed by Stanford entrepreneurs generate world revenues of $2.7 trillion annually and have created 5.4 million jobs since the 1930's.

MaRS (Medical & Related Sciences) Discovery District - Toronto, Ontario

x A private-public project funded by Toronto's scientific and business elites in 2002. Its goal is to connect entrepreneurs with the resources, mentors and workspace they need to launch groundbreaking, made-in-Canada ventures. It is a platform to commercialize scientific discoveries. x MaRS's scope covers four industries: social innovation; life sciences and health care; information technology, communications and entertainment (ICE); and physical science, engineering and "cleantech". x The 1.5 million sq. ft. property spans two buildings that include laboratories, offices and conference rooms. x An expansion to the District was completed in 2014 (a 20 storey tower). This building was partially funded by a $230.3 million loan from Infrastructure Ontario, the arm's length government agency that specializes in private-public partnerships.

100

Wakeforest Innovation Quarter - Winston-Salem, North Carolina

x A center for research, business and education in biomedical science, information technology, clinical services and advanced materials. x The facility was a prominent catalyst in diversifying the Winston-Salem economy when it was reeling from the collapse of the textile, furniture and tobacco industries. x Home to more than 60 companies, 4 leading academic institutions, more than 3,100 workers and 5,000 students. x Currently comprised of 1.5 million sq. ft. of office, laboratory, and educational space. x 145 developable acres. x The Wake Forest Biotech Place Conference Center offers 15 rooms, including an auditorium seating 120, 5 flexible seating rooms, 6 board rooms, a long-distance learning classroom and a 7,500 sq. ft. atrium. x In addition, there are more than 650 apartments, lofts and condos within or close by the Innovation Quarter. x Provides company incubator facilities and services. x The facility dates back to 1994, when the Wake Forest School of Medicine's Department of Physiology and Pharmacology moved into a former R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Co. warehouse with eight researchers from Winston-Salem State University. x The idea of the 'knowledge community' grew in time. Various influential leaders included the Wake Forest Baptist Medical Center, the city, county and state government, business and development, and the community.

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Massachusetts Institute of Technology – Cambridge, Massachusetts

MIT: x An undisputed global research leader, home to breakthroughs in a vast number of fields that have shaped the modern technological landscape. x 11,331 students; 4,527 undergraduates, 6,804 graduates. x 1,036 faculty members; 8:1 faculty to student ratio. x At 168 acres, campus is known for being relatively compact and urban. x 13 million square feet spread over 190 buildings; 7.9 million sq. ft. devoted to academic uses, 2.9 million to residential uses. x 74% of undergraduates and approximately 30% of graduate students live in campus housing. x Since inception, the MIT has been affiliated with 91 Nobel Laureates and 52 National Medal of Science recepients. x Known for producing entrepreneurial graduates: by revenue, corporations founded by MIT alumni would rank as the world’s 10th largest economy (2014). x Charter establishing MIT signed in 1861, with classes starting in 1865.

University Park at MIT Cambridge: x Zoning approval granted in 1988, project completed in 2005. x Located on former brownfield industrial sites acquired by MIT through the 1970s and 80s – adjacent to the main campus. x In developing the site for commercial and residential uses, MIT’s objective was to financially support the university, create collaboration and employment opportunities, and facilitate the spread of technology. x The winning RFP, out of 38, was the only proposal to combine residential, retail, and office uses – with office/R&D space forming the core of the project. x Total development programme: 2.3 million square feet. 1.3 million devoted to office/R&D space, with the remainder constituting 531 rental apartments, a 210-room hotel and conference centre, and 150,000 sq. ft. of retail space. x Marketing to office tenants was heavily based on the project’s proximity to MIT and Harvard, supported by office space suitable for R&D activities: high ceiling heights, large floorplates, with robust HVAC and power systems. x Consensus among planners and tenants today is that the 150,000 sq. ft. of retail space was inadequate to meet market demand and create a sense of place. x Today, University Park is home predominantly to biotechnology and pharmaceutical firms.

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APPENDIX 6 - TOP 100 GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY FIRMS

Based on a series of classifications and a data-driven methodology, including at least $1 billion in annual revenue.

Source: Thomson Reuters, The Top 100 Global Technology Leaders (January 2018)

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9 Appendix B - Transportation & Mobility Considerations

WeTown OCP Compatibility Study | August 2018 | 83 TECHNICAL MEMO

DATE: July 31, 2018 PROJECT NO: 04-17-0165 PROJECT: WeTown at Auguston SUBJECT: Transportation Considerations

TO: Mr. Ian Renton Auguston Town Development Inc.

PREPARED BY: Nicole He, MURP, EIT REVIEWED BY: Carlos Perez, M.Sc., P.Eng. – Senior Transportation Engineer

1. INTRODUCTION

Bunt & Associates Engineering Ltd. has been retained by Auguston Town Development Inc. (ATDI) to provide transportation planning advices for the WeTown development. WeTown is envisioned as a new regional technology centre and a self-contained, mixed-use community. This technical memo provides a transportation review of the proposed land use plan for WeTown and outlines a preferred approach to meet the aims and objectives of the WeTown Concept. This memo is to be read in conjunction with the feasibility study completed by Urbanics.

Located on the west side of Sumas Mountain, WeTown would be developed in phases and may include:

x Residential: 9.4 million sq.ft. x Office: 2.15 million sq.ft. x Higher Education, Research & Incubator: 1.45 million sq.ft. x Retail: 1.2 million sq.ft. x Hotel: 0.3 million sq.ft. x Mixed Use: 1 million sq.ft. 2. EXISTING TRANSPORTATION ACCESS CONDITIONS This section describes the existing road network adjacent to the WeTown site plus the existing transit, cycling & pedestrian networks. It also identifies key barriers in the active mode networks.

2.1 WeTown in Abbotsford As shown in Figure 2.1, WeTown is located on the east side of Abbotsford about 15 minutes by car from Abbotsford’s City Centre. Table 2.1 shows the typical travel times / distances between WeTown and key destinations in Abbotsford and the Metro Vancouver region.

Table 2.1: Travel Time and Distance to Key Destinations

DESTINATION DISTANCE (KM) WEEKDAY PEAK HOUR TRAVEL TIME (MIN)

Abbotsford City Centre 12 15 University of Fraser Valley (UFV) 10 15 Mission 15 20 Sumas USA Border 15 20 - 25 Abbotsford International Airport 20 20 - 25 Chilliwack 28 25 - 30 Langley City Centre 45 35 - 55 Vancouver Downtown 84 75 - 120

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Figure 2.1: WeTown General Location

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2.2 Adjacent Road Network The existing land area for the future WeTown site is currently undeveloped. The key accesses to this 90-acre site will be at McKee and Sumas Mountain Roads. Table 2.2 summarizes the existing street characteristics of adjacent road network while Figure 2.2 highlights the major access routes to and from WeTown, and summarizes the existing two-way traffic volumes on these major roads during the weekday PM peak hour.

Table 2.2: Existing Street Characteristics

NUMBER OF STREET CLASSIFICATION POSTED SPEED PARKING FACILITIES TRAVEL LANES West of Whatcom Rd: 50 km/h except for Urban Collector; McKee Road 2 30 km/h in school No Parking East of Whatcom Rd: zone Urban Arterial; 50 km/h except for Sumas Mountain Urban Arterial 2 30km/h near the No Parking Road Health Centre North of Sandringham Dr: 2 Whatcom Road Urban Arterial 50 km/h No Parking South of Sandringham Dr: 4 West half: Urban Lower Sumas Collector West half: 50 km/h 2 No Parking Mountain Road East half: Rural East half: 30 km/h Collector Highway 1 Provincial Highway 4 100 km/h No Parking Dawson Road / 50 km/h except for Rural Collector 2 No Parking Straiton Road 30 km/h for dips 50 km/h except for Parking on both Old Clayburn Road Urban Collector 2 30 km/h in school sides zone

McKee Road is the main east-west road through the area. It is classified in Abbotsford’s 2018 Master Transportation & Transit Plan as an urban arterial road with two travel lanes (one lane in each direction) and a designated bike route. Current two-way traffic volumes along McKee Road are approximately 1000 - 1200 vehicles per hour (vph) during the weekday AM and PM peak hours.

Approximately 3.4 km to the west of the site, Whatcom Road serves as the main north-south urban arterial road in the area connecting to Highway 1, North Parallel Road and South Parallel Road. Whatcom Road also has painted on-street bike lanes and carries approximately 800 - 900 vph (two- way) during weekday AM and PM peak hours.

Sumas Mountain Road is an alternative north-south urban arterial road located at the east end of McKee Road but has limited connectivity (i.e. right-in right-out only) to Highway 1 to the south and

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Dawson Road to the north. Sumas Mountain Road currently carries a two-way traffic volume of approximately 200 vph during weekday AM and PM peak hours.

Dawson/Straiton Road is an alternative rural collector east-west route in the area which connects with Highway 11 to the west.

Lower Sumas Mountain Road is another east-west route south of the site. This road runs through some residential neighbourhoods on the west as an urban collector. After passing through the residential zone, it is classified as a rural collector road currently interrupted due to recent landslides in the area. Current two-way traffic volumes along Lower Sumas Mountain Road are approximately 250 - 350 vph in the weekday AM and PM peak hours.

Intersections in the area currently appear to operate generally well below capacity and drivers are reported to experience acceptable delays.

Figure 2.2: Adjacent Road Network & Existing Weekday PM Traffic Volume

Note: all traffic volumes are rounded to nearest 10 vehicles per hour.

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2.3 Transit Service Figure 2.3 identifies the key transit routes that connect the Auguston neighbourhood to Abbotsford City Centre. Currently only one bus route directly serves Auguston: Route 15 from Auguston to Downtown Abbotsford. Table 2.3 summarizes the existing local and regional transit service frequency in the adjacent network. Route 15 only has limited service from approximately 7 a.m. to 7 p.m., with a weekday peak hour service headway of 40 minutes. Weekend service provided by Route 15 is less frequent with a headway of 2 hours.

In order to travel to Abbotsford City Centre, transit riders need to transfer at least once at the Bourquin Exchange in the downtown Abbotsford. As identified in the City’s Transportation & Transit Master Plan; most recreational activities, grocery shopping, and services occur at the Abbotsford City Centre as well as the Walmart Abbotsford Supercentre (at the corner of Highway 11 and Marshall Road). These local destinations are served by bus routes 2, 7, 26 and 31.

Route 66 serves as the key regional transit route along Highway 1 that connects Chilliwack, passing through Abbotsford, to Carvolth Exchange. More broadly, people can take bus route 31 to Mission after arriving at the Bourquin Exchange, and then take West Coast Express to travel to other cities within the Metro Vancouver region.

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1 BC Transit Maps, 2018. (https://bctransit.com/servlet/documents/maps/1403642870358)

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ROUTE WEEKDAY SERVICE SPAN HEADWAY (MIN.) MID- # NAME DIRECTION START END AM PM WEEKEND DAY Bluejay - Eastbound 5:32 AM 11:10 PM 12 - 15 30 15 30 2 Huntingdon Westbound 5:29 AM 10:51 PM 15 30 15 30 Counter 4 Saddle 6:00 AM 10:36 PM 30 30 30 30 clockwise Sumas Counter 7 5:55 AM 11:18 PM 30 - 35 30 30 30 Mountain clockwise Auguston Westbound 6:52 AM 6:16 PM 40 - 40 120 15 Connector Eastbound 6:34 AM 5:58 PM 40 - 40 120 Valley Northbound 5:57 AM 11:10 PM 15 - 20 30 15 - 20 30-35 31 Connector Southbound 6:25 AM 10:44 PM 10 - 15 30 Fraser Valley Westbound 5:15 AM 8:54 PM 30 90 30 165 66 Express Eastbound 6:40 AM 10:13 PM 30 90 30 165 Westbound 5:25 AM 8:40 AM 30 - - - West Coast Express Eastbound 3:50 PM 7:35 PM - - 30 -

*Note: The current BC Transit Website does not provide any schedule information for Route 26.

2.4 Cycling and Pedestrian Network Figure 2.4 illustrates the existing cycling route near the WeTown development. As shown, WeTown is away from any existing cycling routes, except for the marked bicycle lane along Whatcom Road.

The study area has limited pedestrian accessibility as most of the nearby roads were originally designed for vehicular movements. McKee Road only has sidewalk on the north side, whereas Sumas Mountain Road currently does not have any sidewalk available for pedestrians. The elevation change on the Sumas Mountain also limits walkability.

Better pedestrian and cycling infrastructure should be planned around the major routes to encourage the promotion of walking and cycling.

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2 City of Abbotsford, Plan for 200K Transportation and Transit Master Plan. June 2018.

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3. WETOWN TRAVEL FORECASTS

3.1 WeTown Land Uses and Transportation Sustainability The proposed development of WeTown will bring a progressive way of living for the neighbourhood; primarily it is planned to accommodate approximately 30,000 people, generate 14,000 high-tech jobs along with 4,000 jobs for existing industries. The design concept will allow residents to live, work and play in WeTown. Table 3.1 shows a breakdown of the proposed, built-out land uses considered for this transportation review.

Table 3.1: Proposed Land Uses

PRIMARY LAND USE SUB LAND USE QUANTITY (UNITS OR SQFT)

General Multi-family High-Rise 2,250 Units Residential Faculty/Staff Housing 8,702 Units Student Housing 1,518 Units Office General Office 2.15M sq.ft. Retail General Retail 1.2M sq.ft. Institutional Research Centre & Incubator 1.45M sq.ft. Lodging Hotel 547 Rooms Community/recreational centre, Amenity 1M sq.ft. public amenity space

*Note: Gross Floor Area is rounded to nearest thousand square feet.

One of the key design objectives for WeTown is to reduce the community’s reliance on the private automobile, and more generally, provide people with a realistic choice of transportation to undertake their day-to-day activities. This would be achieved through a combination of design features, including high density, complementary land uses and the creation of a more intimate human scale street environment; providing a wide mix of local amenities; ensuring the community is well integrated with the transit network; and implementing innovative Transportation Demand Management (TDM) measures to reduce vehicular parking and traffic demands.

Reduced Car Ownership and Parking Demand Parking demand and auto ownership for residential areas can be measured in relation to two factors: (a) density, and (b) accessibility to transit. Covering the first, Holtclaw et al3 produced research that highlighted a strong relationship between residential density and auto ownership. The study shows that, at densities of over 20 households per acre, auto ownership drops to below 1 vehicle per unit, and at 150 households per acre (WeTown will be around 140 to 150 units per acre), it falls to less

3 Holtzclaw, J., Clear, R., Dittmar, H., Goldstein, D. and Haas, P. 2002. Location efficiency: Neighborhood and socioeconomic charac teristics determine auto ownership and use-studies in Chicago, Los Angeles, and San Francisco. Transportation Planning and Technology, 25(1): 1–27.

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than 0.5 vehicles per unit. These changes in auto ownership are consistent with the other aspects of higher density locations, i.e. high transit provision, walkable communities, local supporting amenities, etc.

In terms of transit influence, Bunt has conducted parking studies in the vicinity of frequent transit areas to examine the relationship between auto ownership, apartment size and transit access. The results demonstrate that auto ownership averages at 1 vehicle per unit and this pattern is consistent with the different unit sizes.

The above studies confirm that density and transit accessibility have a strong influence on auto ownership levels. However, they are not the only factors affecting car ownership. Other influences include household income, social-demographic profiles, and innovative parking reduction measures (e.g. car-sharing, charging for parking, unbundling parking).

Walkability Walkability covers both the pedestrian friendliness of the street/walkway network, and the opportunities for the future residents, employees and visitors to access day-to-day amenities by foot. WeTown design features will be supported with short block sizes; interconnected streets and walkways (providing more direct connections to local amenities); and more generally, having a safe, comfortable and welcoming environment for people to walk and stroll.

Equally important for residents and employees is having access to day-to-day amenities within a reasonable walking distance. Figure 3.1 indicates that all land uses in WeTown are within a radius of 800m or ten-minute walk in the case of WeTown. Residential density and employment density play an important role in supporting the neighbourhood-orientated amenity and commercial uses.

Table 3.2 lists a summary of the walking thresholds to a typical range of day-to-day amenities, including those planned, as well as to employment and transit. As this table demonstrates, the new community at WeTown is planned within the distances expected to be accessible by foot to a wide range of day-to-day amenities and confirms the potential for minimizing auto use.

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Figure 3.1: Walking Distance Circles in Abbotsford

Table 3.2: Walking Thresholds to Day-to-Day Amenities

THRESHOLD RESIDENTIAL AND EMPLOYMENT WITHIN AMENITY DISTANCES THESE THRESHOLDS The post secondary institute will be within Post Secondary Institute 2000m walking distance of all the residential uses All of the residential and employment is within Leisure Facilities 600m to 800m this threshold 800m to the existing Auguston Traditional Elementary / Middle School 600m to 800m Elementary School All of the planned amenities is within this Community Centre 800m threshold Transit Stops 450m to 800m All the community uses are within this threshold. Food Services, retail, All of the planned residential community are 800m to 1200m general services, restaurants within this threshold Employment at the Post Secondary All of the planned residential community are 2000m Institute, retail and local services, etc within this threshold

Source: Institute of Highways and Transportation (UK)

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Near the WeTown site, only Whatcom Road currently has a paved shoulder bicycle lane. WeTown would provide an opportunity to establish new bike routes that bridge the gaps resulting in a complete and connected network, for instance, by completing the bike route along McKee Road.

Sustainable Vehicle Use and Parking As shown in Figure 3.2, WeTown’s concept will distribute parking throughout the site. Parking would be provided through a main central area and two wings of shared parking. In addition, parking reservoirs for office and retail uses are also proposed.

Figure 3.2: Parking Arrangement and Complementarities

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Table 3.3 summarizes the proposed parking supply for WeTown.

Table 3.3: WeTown Proposed Parking Supply

PROPOSED PARKING LAND USE QUANTITY PROPOSED RATE SUPPLY

High Rise Residential 2,250 Units 1.0 Spaces per Unit 2,2501 Faculty housing 8,702 Units 1.0 Spaces per Unit 8,7021 Student housing 1,518 Units - -

Residential Visitor 12,470 Units 0.1 Spaces per Unit 1,2472,3

3,4 General Office 199,742 sq-m 1 Space per 80 sq-m 2,497 Retail 111,484 sq-m 1 Space per 40 sq-m 2,787

Hotel 547 Units 1 Space per Unit 547 University, Research and Development 134,709 sq-m 1 Space per 80 sq-m 1,6844 Centre (URDC)* Shared Parking -1,2473 Reduction TOTAL - - 18,467

Notes: 1. Assumes 1 parking space per residential unit (except student units) 2. Residential Visitor Parking (RVP) assumed at 0.1 spaces per residential unit 3. RVP will be shared with retail and office uses 4. General Office and URDC uses assume 50% of the bylaw requirement to account for out-of-WeTown visitors

While reflecting that automobile travel will remain as one travel choice for residents and visitors to the site, to support and promote a mode shift from single occupancy vehicles to walking, cycling and transit uses, WeTown does not intend to oversupply parking spaces . As shown in Table 3.3, we are proposing one (1) parking stall per residential unit, and 0.1 residential visitor parking stall per unit. This aligns with Bunt’s observation of residential parking demand in highrise multifamily land uses in a mixed use context. Given the mixed-use nature of WeTown, shared parking between different uses, for example between office and retail uses, would create opportunities for optimal parking utilization. The proposed parking supply is based on a robust TDM strategy that should include the components discussed in Sections 3.2 and 3.3.

Electric vehicle charging infrastructures would also be provided in new multifamily residential buildings, employment and retail centres. Parking management strategies such as dynamic parking pricing can also promote a higher turn-over of parking spaces and encourage economic activities. In addition, a public carshare program would also be planned at WeTown to help reduce auto ownership. Details of strategies will be discussed in the Section 3.2.5.

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3.2 TDM Strategy

3.2.1 Walking The design of streets at WeTown will focus on pedestrian needs as a priority over vehicle movements. With this approach, a pedestrian-friendly environment can be developed through features such as reduced roadway crossing distances; road geometry that keeps vehicle speeds to the operational minimum; providing pedestrians with a wider choice of routes than other street users, etc.

These design features are supported with short block sizes; interconnecting streets and walkways (providing more direct connections to local amenities); and more generally, having a safe, comfortable and convivial environment for people to walk and stroll.

Equally important for residents and employees is having access to day-to-day amenities within a reasonable walking distance. Walking is a realistic form of travel for most people, especially over short distances with many people willing to walk at least 5-minutes or 400m for short trips. Commercial uses for WeTown are likely to include food services, restaurants, cafés, local services, banks, grocery store and drug store, etc., while there is expected to be community-orientated amenities including public open space, a day-care / pre-school facility and a community centre among others.

3.2.2 Cycling A person’s willingness to cycle is based on a number of lifestyle factors, including health benefits, cost savings (compared to automobile use and parking) and convenience. Infrastructure also plays an important role through the safety of routes, presence or absence of steep gradients, availability of cycle storage facilities, etc. Cycling is a realistic transportation option for most people over short to medium distances, i.e. up to 8 kilometres, or a 30-35 minute cycle.

An integral part of the development will be to introduce a protected bike path along McKee Road route through the site which would connect with the existing section at Whatcom Road. To the east, the bike route will eventually connect to Old Clayburn Road and a more comprehensive bicycle network at Abbotsford City Centre to the west. This is also consistent with the proposed long-term bicycle network outlined in the City’s Transportation and Transit Master Plan (see Figure 3.3).

Bicycle storage facilities would be provided throughout the new community. Residential and employment uses will have their own dedicated facilities, while visitor bicycle parking would be concentrated in areas of high intensity such as at the community centre and retail stores. End of trip cycling facilities (including showers, lockers, and change areas) would also be in place for the buildings with employment uses at WeTown.

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Figure 3.3: Abbotsford Proposed Long-Term Bicycle Network Plan4

4 City of Abbotsford Plan for 200K, Transportation and Transit Master Plan, June 2018.

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3.2.3 Bike Share Combined with the proposed cycle network improvement mentioned in Section 3.2.2, a public shared electric bicycle program would also considered as part of WeTown’s Transportation Demand Management (TDM) measures. A public shared e-Bike Program is a service in which a pool of power- assisted bicycles are made available for shared use to public on a (very) short term5 basis for a price. E-bikes are preferred over regular bikes for WeTown given the steep hills on Sumas Mountain. This TDM measure provides a new attractive choice of transportation. Research conducted to date indicates that a public Shared e-Bike Program would have the following potential benefits:

To WeTown Residents & Public x Access to another form of sustainable transport x Secure reliable alternative for short to medium distance journeys currently made by car or bus x Additional incentive to reduce car & bicycle ownership, reduce carbon footprint, and lead healthier lifestyle x Increased property values by up to 3%6

To Abbotsford x Additional incentive for residents to reduce car and bicycle ownership x Reduce their community’s carbon footprint x Healthier citizens x More affordable housing as a result of reduced construction costs x Contribution to the sharing economy

The public shared e-Bike system will include a charge station and e-bikes with integrated locking and charging technology, a one-swipe checkout system, a user-friendly web/app platform, and intelligent fleet management and maintenance.

Available research7 suggests that the shared e-Bike fleet for WeTown should consist of 650 e-bikes (= 1 e-bike for every 20 dwelling units).

5 “(Very) short term” refers to a rental period typically less than 2 hours in duration.

6 Ahmed El-Geneidy et al. Do people value bicycle sharing? A multilevel longitudinal analysis capturing the impact of bicycle sharing on residential sales in Montreal, Canada (Transport Policy, April 2015)

7 ITDP, The Bikeshare Planning Guide

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3.2.4 Transit When people are considering taking transit, their decision is typically based on a number of factors including their eligibility to drive, cost, convenience, relative journey times with other modes, personal choice, income level, etc. Generally transit is a practical proposition for journeys of 4 kilometres and more, however if high frequency service is available, it is also practical for shorter distance trips for convenience.

Accommodating transit is an essential component of the master plan as it will make WeTown:

x Accessible; x Convenient and safe to use; and, x Well served to meet demands at different times of day and week.

Direct transit access for Auguston is currently only provided by BC Transit Route #15, with peak hour headway of 40 minutes or more. This service is not frequent, as compared to other existing transit routes to the Downtown Exchange. As WeTown and adjacent neighbourhoods develop, a need for more direct and frequent transit services is unavoidable for residents and employees.

Given the future population growth and shifts in transportation mode share, a direct transit connection between WeTown and Abbotsford as well as to the region should be planned with a peak hour frequency of approximately 8 minutes. A local community shuttle service at WeTown would provide frequent circulation throughout employment and residential hubs throughout the site.

3.2.5 Car Share Car-sharing services have developed significantly in the last 10-15 years (and increasingly in the past 2-3 years). These services allow people to have short term access to a shared vehicle located on or close to their site, without having to buy or maintain their own vehicle. Members usually pay a small monthly administration fee to cover some of the fixed costs of the car and then a “pay as you go” approach is adopted as members pay by the hour and mile when they use a vehicle. Each shared car has been shown to remove between 3 – 11 private vehicles from the street system, and number of vehicles owned per household has been shown to drop when a car sharing membership was acquired8. Car share memberships and initial driving credits should be provided to new residents of WeTown.

There are two types of car sharing services – “A to B” type services such as Car2Go and Evo, and “A to B to A” type services such as Modo and Zipcar. In the former case, car share members can use vehicles from one origin to one destination and do not have to return these vehicles to the trip origin. The car share company repositions the cars regularly to respond to origin demand patterns.

8 http://www.metrovancouver.org/services/regional- planning/PlanningPublications/MetroVancouverCarShareStudyTechnicalReport.pdf

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In the latter case, the vehicle’s “home” position remains constant, and car share members must return the vehicles to their origin when they have finished using it. The two car share models are directed towards different users, and can complement each other when used at the same site.

Car-sharing vehicles would be located in publicly accessible and visible locations, either on-street or in communal off-street parking locations within the commercial area. As well, vehicles would be located in pods, with two or more vehicles in each pod together with appropriate signage to deter 'illegal' parking. Where possible, they will be located close to transit stops, taxis pick-up points, bike storage facilities, etc., so as to create an identifiable multi-modal transportation focal point.

One car-share vehicle (or vehicle from another provider of “A to B to A” type services) is recommended for every 180 residential dwelling units and altogether 75 vehicles for approximately 13,000 units proposed. Vehicle introduction would be phased with the residential build-out, with the first vehicle provided after the first unit is occupied and one vehicle thereafter for each 180 units.

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3.3 Travel Forecasts The above sustainable transportation design features provide opportunities for reduced used of automobile. This is consistent with similar developments in other jurisdictions Trip Generation.

Site trip projections were based on the preliminary land use statistics summarized in Table 3.1 given standard trip generation rates from Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE) Trip Generation Manual (10th Edition) and observed rates from student housing at Post Secondary Institute in Metro Vancouver. The traffic forecast also accounted some internal trip making during the AM and PM Peak Hour due to the mixed-use nature of this site. Internal trip reduction is estimated using the ITE Handbook (3rd Edition) methodology.

In addition, given the promotion of extensive Transportation Demand Management (TDM) strategies in WeTown, it was assumed that a significant mode shift from single occupancy vehicles to other non-auto transportation modes would occur. Table 3.4 summarizes the effectiveness of TDM strategies together with frequent transit services. Research has shown that TDM measures tend to have the greatest influence on frequent and regular work-based trips and has lesser impacts on shopping and personal business trips which are less frequent and discretionary. Therefore, most TDM programs, and therefore monitoring of TDM program effectiveness is typically focused on “Commuter Trip Reduction” or CTR programs.

Table 3.4: TDM Effectiveness

TDM PROGRAM OR HIGH TRANSIT MODERATE TRANSIT LOW TRANSIT STRATEGY Support, Promotion, 3-5% 1-3% <1% Information Alternative Commute 5-10% 5-10% 1-3% Services Financial Incentives 10-20% 5-15% 1-5% Combined Strategies With Free Parking 15-20% 10-15% 3-7% With Pay Parking 15-30% 15-20% n/a

Source: Integrating Demand Management into the Transportation Planning Process: A Desk Reference, U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, August 2012, page 160. Note that “High” transit = Rail; “Medium” transit = bus with peak headways 20 min. or less; “Low” = bus with headways >20 min.

According to the Victoria Transport Policy Institute, a comprehensive CTR program typically reduces peak-period (work-based) automobile trips by 4-20% at a worksite9, and impacts vary depending on program design, geography and employee demographics. Programs that lack financial incentives

9 Winters and Rudge 1995; Rye 2002; Boarnet, Hsu and Handy 2010.

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(e.g. transit subsidies, parking cash out) generally achieve reductions under 10%. As shown, it is reasonable to assume an approximate 30% reduction of single occupancy vehicles.

The City of Abbotsford currently has an auto mode split of 92%. Applying 30% reduction to automobile travel will reduce this mode split to just over 60%. Given that WeTown is planned as a self-contained community, all buildings are within 800m or 10-minute walking distance, and the average walk from the residential areas to commercial and employment areas is about 8 minutes. It is anticipated that the remaining non-automobile mode split of 40% will be mainly for walking and cycling trips, and for transit to a lesser extent.

Table 3.5 summarizes the existing and resulting mode share for WeTown. WeTown will be planned as a self-contained community, where most residents and employees can access their destinations by walking and cycling on-site.

Table 3.5: Target Mode Share

MODE EXISTING10 FUTURE

Walking / Cycling 5% 30% Transit 3% 10% Auto 92% 60%

Table 3.6 summarizes the resulting external vehicle trip estimates for the site, after accounting internal trip reduction and mode share changes. As shown in Table 3.6, the proposed mixed uses in WeTown are expected to generate approximately 3,300 and 4,400 vehicle trips during weekday AM and PM peak hours, respectively.

3.3.1 Trip Distribution Given the location of WeTown, the vehicle traffic is expected to come in and out from McKee Road/Whatcom and Sumas Mountain Road. Table 3.7 provides a high-level estimation of traffic distribution based on existing traffic turning movements and regional travel pattern.

McKee Road would serve as the major road as it would be connected to George Ferguson Way and City Centre to the east, and it currently connects to Whatcom Road and Highway 1 to the south. In addition, the City is planning to extend McKee Road and connect it to Highway 11, and widen McMillan Road possibly to four lanes. So the majority of WeTown traffic would most likely to access through McKee Road, instead of Sumas Mountain Road. The traffic coming from and to McKee Road is assumed to split evenly between continuing along McKee Road and turning onto Whatcom Road.

10 City of Abbotsford Plan for 200k Transportation and Transit Master Plan, June 2018

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Table 3.6: Estimated Peak Hour External Vehicle Trip Generation by Land Use

AM PM LAND USE QUANTITY IN OUT TOTAL IN OUT TOTAL ITE 222 - High Rise 2,250 Units 40 291 331 209 90 299 Residential Bunt - Faculty housing 8,702 Units 183 853 1,036 853 305 1,157

Bunt - Student housing 1,518 Units 32 21 53 85 85 170

ITE 710 - General Office 2.15M sq.ft. 1,036 106 1,142 181 1,005 1,187

ITE 875 - Department Store 1.2M sq.ft. 166 71 237 518 427 945

ITE 310 - Hotel 547 Rooms 80 11 91 60 72 132 ITE 760 - Research and 1.45M sq.ft. 320 107 426 75 423 497 Development Centre TOTAL 1,850 1,450 3,300 2,000 2,400 4,400 Note: Total traffic volumes are rounded to nearest 50 vehicle trips.

Table 3.7: Estimated Traffic Distribution

STREET/DIRECTION % DISTRIBUTION

McKee Road – West 45%* Sumas Mountain Road - North 30% Sumas Mountain Road - South 25% TOTAL 100% * Traffic on McKee Road – West is assumed to be evenly split between continuing along McKee Road and turning from/to Whatcom Road.

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3.3.2 Network Required Capacity As shown in the previous section and Table 3.6, the mixed land uses are expected to generate approximately 1,100 vehicle trips more in the weekday PM peak hour than during the AM peak hour. To examine the required network capacity for future conditions, the analysis focused on the weekday PM peak hour only. The horizon year of analysis would be the full build-out of WeTown - assumed to be year 2040. To account for future background traffic due to other developments in Auguston, a 2% annual linear growth rate was applied to the existing traffic volumes.

Figure 3.4 shows the breakdown of future background traffic with the addition of WeTown development traffic. As shown, WeTown is expected to add a two-way volume of approximately 2,000 vehicles per hour (vph) onto McKee Road, which has a background traffic volume of 700 vph. This gives a total of 2,700 vph. As a rule of thumb, an urban two-lane road roughly has a capacity of 1,600 to 1,800 vph. Consequently, the existing two-lane configuration on McKee Road may not be able to accommodate all the future traffic generated by WeTown. In other words, McKee Road would be required to be widened to four travel lanes, i.e. two travel lanes per direction. This forecast aligns with the future road network planned by the City in its Transportation & Transit Master Plan, where the City is already considering widening some portions of McKee Road to four lanes.

Whatcom Road is estimated to have a total two-way volume of 2,100 vph by the full build-out of WeTown. This level of traffic would also exceed the existing two-lane capacity of the north portion of Whatcom Road. Widening the existing two-lane segment of Whatcom Road to a four-lane urban arterial road standard should accommodate this demand.

After adding a two-way volume of about 1,100 – 1,300 vph to the future background traffic on Sumas Mountain Road, it is estimated that the road will operate with a total traffic of 1,300 – 1,600 vph. Given its existing two-lane road capacity, Sumas Mountain Road would be able to operate with no significant traffic operational issues.

3.2.4 Non-Auto Modes

Based on the shift in transportation mode share, Table 3.8 summarizes the number of trips by mode in future build-out during weekday PM peak hour.

Table 3.8: Estimated Trips by Mode

MODE FUTURE MODE SHARE TRIPS

Walking / Cycling 30% 2,170 Transit 10% 730 Auto 60% 4,400 TOTAL 100% 7,300

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Figure 3.4: Future Background and Development Traffic (Weekday PM Peak)

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4. CAPITAL TRANSPORTATION IMPROVEMENTS

4.1 Road Network Improvements The following improvements will be required to address the level of vehicle trip generation outlined in Section 3.3:

x McKee Road: widen from two lanes to four lanes between Ledgeview Drive and Sumas Mountain Rd); and x Whatcom Road: widen from two lanes to four lanes between McKee Road and Sandringham Drive;

These recommended improvements would be additional to other road network upgrades already identified in the City’s Transportation and Transit Master Plan for other sections of these roads. Table 4.1 summarizes the estimated cost using the Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure (MOTI)’s project estimation tool. Based on costing for similar projects, the estimation used an average cost of $3M per kilometer of road widening plus 35% (20% contingency and 15% Project Management, Site Supervision & Inspection cost) per segment for a total of approximately $4.1M per kilometre. When using this average cost, these proposed additional improvements equate to $11.6M and $7.7M respectively for the two segments.

Table 4.1: Estimated Cost of Road Network Improvements

IMPROVEMENT DISTANCE RATE ($/KM) ESTIMATED COST SEGMENT TYPE (KM) (BC MOTI) (BC MOTI) McKee Road 4-laning 2.8 $4.15M $11.6M (Ledgeview Drive to Sumas Mountain Road) Whatcom Road 4-laning 1.9 $4.21M $7.7M (Sandringham Drive to McKee Road)) TOTAL - 4.7 - $19.3M

4.2 Other Transportation Improvements As outlined in Section 3.2 TDM strategies, WeTown may also provide realistic, connected and comprehensive transportation systems for residents and employee, which is expected to include options of carshare vehicles, residential shared e-bike system and frequent transit services.

The plan and assumptions for each transportation system is outlined as follows:

Carshare: x Assume replacement occurs every five years; x Vehicle costs approximately $25,000 including vehicle conversion – locking and tracking system; and x Operating cost is to be determined by the carshare provider; it could be covered by them.

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Public Shared E-bikes: x Assume replacement occurs every 2 years (Life expectancy of an e-bike is 15,000km);

Transit: x The frequency of transit services is determined by the cost-minimizing principle11. Assume transit service for 15 hours a day at $97 per hour12; 12km route to/from Abbotsford City Centre - 1 hour round trip (including layover), 8 minute headway (combined) or 8 buses/hr during 6 hours on weekdays, and double headway (15 minutes or 4 buses/hr) for the other 9 hours on weekdays and all 15 hours weekends/holidays; x Assume the cost of hybrid bus is $500,000 per bus13; x Assume 15 years of bus life cycle14; x Assume the cost of community shuttle bus is $250,00015 each; operating cost of community shuttle is approximately $64 per hour11;

Table 4.2 summarizes the cost breakdown of each system. Note that at this planning stage, cost estimation is high-level and preliminary. Final costs and implementation should be determined and coordinated with the system operators.

Table 4.2: Estimated Cost of Other Transportation Improvements

REPLACEMENT OPERATING TDM PROVISION CAPITAL COST ANNUAL COST ANNUAL COST Public Carshare 72 Carshare Vehicles $ 1.8M $ 0.4M -

Shared E-Bikes 652 E-bikes $ 5M $ 1.1M $ 0.4M

Transit 8 buses + 2 WeTown shuttles $ 4.5M $ 0.3M $ 3.2M

TOTAL $ 11.3M $ 1.8M $ 3.6M

WITH 5% CONTINGENCY $ 11.9M $ 1.9M $ 3.8M

11 Optimization and Scale Economies in Urban Bus Transportation,” American Economic Review, 62(4), 591-604. Herbert Mohring. 1972.

12 TransLink 2016 Transit Service Performance Review, Appendix B: Report Definitions and Assumptions

13 Fact Sheet: Hybrid Buses: Costs and Benefits. March 2017. (http://www.eesi.org/papers/view/fact-sheet- hybrid-buses-costs-and-benefits)

14 Bus Replacement Modeling and Impacts of Budget Constraints, Fleet Co Cost Variability, and Market Changes on Fleet Costs and Optimal Bus Replacement Age, A Case Study. January 2011. (https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1258&context=open_access_etds)

15 BC Transit Community Bus Program. February 2013. (https://bctransit.com/servlet/documents/1403643007503)

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4.3 Funding & Timing of Transportation Improvements x Road Network: There are several options to fund the road network improvements. One common way is to apply transportation Development Cost Charges (DCCs) towards the recommended capital transportation improvements. Since WeTown will likely be required to pay DCCs to the City of Abbotsford, eventually the City will include these improvements as part of their transportation capital plan. The road improvements would be required when WeTown is at approximately 50% build out. x Public Carshare: Usually the developer will be responsible for the capital cost to provide the carshare vehicles. The carshare system’s operations and maintenance need to be negotiated between the developer and the third-party vendor. Vehicle introduction would be phased with the residential build-out, with the first vehicle provided after the first unit is occupied and one vehicle thereafter for each additional 180 units. x Public Bikeshare: Similar to the public carshare system, the capital cost is usually covered by the developer. The developer should discuss with the third-party vendor on specific bicycle types, operations and maintenance. Bicycle introduction would be phased with the residential units and employment increases. Since bike stations usually hold 20 E-bikes, at the proposed rate of the 1 E-Bike per every 20 swelling units, preliminary an E-bike station is required per every 400 dwelling units. x Transit: Transit services in Abbotsford are provided by BC Transit and the implementation of transit services is usually led and planned by the transit agency. It is recommended that, as the development project plans get approved by the City, transit ridership levels would be communicated to the agency for consideration in their service expansion plans. Based on experience in other areas, it may take months or years for transit service coverage and/or frequencies to keep up with the demand levels. Since it is crucial to provide adequate transit services at the outset of the development to keep trip mode split at target levels, it is likely that WeTown might need to provide some developer-sponsored transit services until the agency is fully able to provide these services. The capital cost of the local community shuttle service continuously circulating through WeTown will be the responsibility of the developer.

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5. CONCLUSION This memo has highlighted the various ways in which WeTown is being planned in a sustainable transportation manner to meet the day-to-day needs of the residents and employees with a focus on promoting walking, cycling, car sharing and transit use and thus minimize auto usage/ownership.

The key findings are summarized as follows:

x The existing transportation network in the WeTown site and adjacent area is primarily designed for vehicular traffic. It lacks connectivity of pedestrian sidewalks, bicycle routes, and frequent transit services.

x The proposed development of WeTown will bring a progressive way of living for a neighbourhood; it is anticipated to accommodate approximately 30,000 people, generate 14,000 high-tech jobs along with 4,000 jobs for existing industries.

x The design concept of a self-contained community at WeTown offers an opportunity of achieving the targeted mode shift from single occupancy vehicles to other sustainable modes including walking, cycling and transit.

x WeTown is being planned to prioritize walking, biking, transit and carsharing/carpooling. Investment choice and space allocation decisions revolve around alternative modes of transportation before the single occupant vehicles. Specifically, WeTown will be planning a series of complementary and integrated Transportation Demand Management (TDM) strategies.

x Key TDM measures include, but are not limited to, complete street design, a new bike route along McKee Road, end-of-trip amenities, residential shared e-bike system, frequent and direct transit connection between WeTown and Abbotsford City Centre, parking management, and public carshare. These combined efforts are estimated to reduce vehicle travel demand by approximately 30%. It is anticipated that the mode share of WeTown for walking/cycling, transit and auto will be changed respectively from the existing 5%, 3% and 92% to the projected 30%, 10% and 60%.

x As a result of mode share shift, the proposed mixed uses in WeTown are expected to generate approximately 3,300 and 4,400 vehicle trips during the weekday AM and PM peak hours, respectively.

x Based on the levels of travel generation, two existing road segments would need to be widened from 2 travel lanes to 4 travel lanes: (1) McKee Road (between Ledgeview Drive and Sumas Mountain) and (2) Whatcom Road (between McKee Road and Sandringham Drive). The estimated cost of widening is approximately $11.6M for McKee Road and $7.7M for Whatcom Road. These capital expenditures are proposed to be funding through transportation DCC funds paid by WeTown.

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x The capital cost of other transportation improvements, including public carshare, shared e- bikes, and transit services, totals approximately $11.9M with a 5% contingency. Annualized replacement cost is estimated to be $1.8M per year, and operating cost is $3.8M per year. Different funding sources might be available to provide these services. However it is expected that these will need to be initially funded by the developer.

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84 | Wedler Engineering LLP 201-9300 Nowell Street Chilliwack, BC V2P 4V7

August 3, 2018 File Ref: C18-5554/A WeTown Development: Conceptual Servicing Review

Wedler Engineering LLP has been retained by Auguston Town Development Inc. (ATDI) to provide a review of conceptual servicing for the WeTown development. With a projected growth of 30,000 people, WeTown aims to be a self-contained, sustainable, and tech-oriented community. Building on a philosophy of sustainability, ATDI is committed to implementing innovative servicing solutions, such as a full grey water recycling program and storm water retention ponds. This memo provides a conceptual look at the water servicing, sanitary servicing, and storm water management for the WeTown development.

Current City of Abbotsford (City) bylaws prescribe an average daily water demand of 570 litres per capita per day (lpcd) to be used for design calculations. Through improved metering, education, conservation, and loss prevention, we understand the City will consider 300 lpcd for the average daily design water demand. Given the reduced design water demand, the average flow demand would be approximately 105 litres per second (lps) (see Appendix A for calculations). In an effort to further reduce the impact on the City infrastructure, a full grey water recycling system is proposed for WeTown. Grey water is classified by the BC Ministry of Health as “used household water sourced from baths, showers, bathroom basins and laundries, but doesn’t include toilet, kitchen sink, or dishwasher waste”. More information on grey water, and grey water recycling, can be found in Appendix C. Based on a 2009 study completed in the City of Guelph, we estimate approximately 30 lpcd could be recycled in home from the grey water system. The 2012 report detailing the findings of the study can be found in Appendix D. In addition to recycling water for domestic use, the grey water system can also be used to supply the development’s irrigation system. By utilizing a fully integrated grey water system, the design average daily demand could be reduced as follows:

Design Average Daily Demand 300 lpcd

Domestic Grey Water Recycling -30 lpcd

Grey Water Irrigation Use -50 lpcd

Net Average Daily Demand 220 lpcd WeTown Development | Conceptual Servicing Review August 3, 2018 File Ref: C18-5554/A Based on the projected population increase of 30,000, the net average demand would be approximately 77 lps. Current City bylaws require fire flow demand to be estimated using the Fire Underwriters’ Survey (FUS) guidelines. FUS guidelines determine fire flow demands for a given building or structure, with consideration given to its specific details. As such, calculations will be completed on a building-by-building basis to determine the highest fire flow demands for the development. As part of the City’s published 200K City Water Master Plan, the minimum fire flow requirements for a commercial or mixed-use development, such as WeTown, are proposed to be increased to 200 lps. The ultimate fire flow demand will be based on either the FUS guideline calculations or minimum fire flow requirements, whichever is greater. In order to determine the impact of the projected domestic and fire flow demands on the existing City system, the existing reservoir and piping system capacities will need to be reviewed. The City has modelled their existing water infrastructure system using InfoWater. This model can be used to analyze the required system upgrades to accommodate the projected demands. We are currently waiting on further direction from the City on when this analysis can be completed. It is possible that some of the works identified in the 200K City Water Master Plan may be required earlier than planned in order to accommodate the WeTown development.

Current City bylaws prescribe a design flow of 350 lpcd for average dry weather flow (ADWF). For peak dry weather flow (PDWF), a peaking factor of 2.6 is determined based on the projected population and the City’s Engineering Standard Design Drawing ES-S-2. While this factor is being used for the conceptual servicing review, the overall peaking factor will be reduced when considering the contributions from the entire Auguston Proper area. PDWF for WeTown is estimated to be 316 lps (see Appendix A). Peak wet weather flow (PWWF) is determined by including the contribution of system infiltration to the PDWF. For the WeTown development area, approximately 48 Ha, the infiltration contribution is calculated as 5 lps. PWWF for WeTown is estimated to be 321 lps (see Appendix A). The City’s 200K City Wastewater Master Plan indicates actual discharge has dropped to 225 lpcd. For initial concept design, we have conservatively used 250 lpcd as the design criteria. ADWF, PDWF, and PWWF using the reduced design criteria are 87 lps, 226 lps, and 231 lps, respectively. Even with the reduced design criteria, flows of this magnitude would still be expected to have a considerable impact on the existing downstream sewer system. By utilizing a grey water recycling system, the design sanitary flows can be further reduced by approximately 190 lpcd (see Appendix A). The resulting design flows would be 21 lps (AWDF), 55 lps (PDWF), and 60 lps (PWWF).

Page 2 WeTown Development | Conceptual Servicing Review August 3, 2018 File Ref: C18-5554/A To determine the impact of the projected sanitary flows on the existing City system, the existing sanitary system capacities will need to be reviewed. The City has modelled their existing sanitary infrastructure system using hydraulic modelling software. This model can be used to analyze the required system upgrades to accommodate the projected demands. We are currently waiting on further direction from the City on when this analysis can be completed. Specifically, we expect hydraulic analysis of the Straiton sanitary sewer trunk main will be required. It is possible that some of the works identified in the 200K City Wastewater Master Plan may be required earlier than planned in order to accommodate the WeTown development.

By utilizing global best practices for green buildings, such as green roofs and balconies, and maximizing green space within the development, the WeTown development has greatly reduced the storm water detention volumes typically seen in developments of similar population. The run-off coefficient for the site is calculated to be less than 0.50, which is a number typically associated with larger single family developments. As shown on the Conceptual Storm Water Management Plan in Appendix B, there are a number of small water courses in the development area which all are a tributary to Clayburn Creek. Two large onsite ponds, of approximately 10,000 m² each, feature as part of the site amenities while also providing detention storage and helping to sustain base flows in Clayburn Creek during extended dry periods. Environmental considerations will be addressed by others as the project progresses. The City’s 200K Drainage Master Plan proposes improvements to the lower reaches of Clayburn Creek. Based on the 200K Drainage Master Plan, and our knowledge of current remaining works for Clayburn Creek, we expect the detention requirements for WeTown will be based on the 1:10 year storm. Based on the 48 Ha development footprint, and a run off coefficient of 0.5, the 1:10 year detention volume is approximately 10,000 mᶟ, based on current City bylaws. This detention can be provided by the onsite ponds, with an active storage depth of 0.5m for each pond. Release rates will be established to meet design criteria and to suit base flows to water courses. To supplement the detention requirements, best practices for storm water management will be incorporated into the design with onsite rain gardens, absorbent soils in landscape areas, and infiltration opportunities. In addition to providing stormwater detention requirements, the two large ponds can be used for rain harvesting as storage facilities. The treated grey water may also be directed to the ponds for equalization, storage, and overflow. By using the ponds in these ways, the stored water may be used to satisfy the irrigation demands for the site. Based on our initial assessment, the detention ponds will provide sufficient capacity to meet the stormwater detention requirements of the City. However, detailed storm water modelling will still need to be completed as the design progresses, including analysis of creek base flows, detention, infiltration, grey water recycling, allowable release rates, and peak flows.

Page 3

WeTown Development | Conceptual Servicing Review August 3, 2018 File Ref: C18-5554/A PER CAPITA

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Page ii WeTown Development | Conceptual Servicing Review August 3, 2018 File Ref: C18-5554/A

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Sanitary Flow Generation (New Home – efficient usage) Description Flows Generated (lpcd) Greywater Re-use? Faucet 32 Yes Shower 43 Yes Laundry 37 Yes Toilet 30 No Dishwasher 2.5 No Bath 4.5 Yes Other 4 No Total 153

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͹͸ǤͳΨ כ ோ௘ି௨௦௔௕௟௘ீ௥௘௬௪௔௧௘௥ ൌ ʹͷͲ݈݌ܿ݀ܳ

ܳோ௘ି௨௦௔௕௟௘ீ௥௘௬௪௔௧௘௥ ൌ ͳͻͲǤʹͷ݈݌ܿ݀

ோ௘ି௨௦௔௕௟௘ீ௥௘௬௪௔௧௘௥ ൌ ͳͻͲ݈݌ܿ݀ܳ݁ݏ׵ݑ

Page iii 11 Appendix D - Conceptual Storm Water Management Plan

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12 Appendix E BC Ministry of Health - Health Information: Grey Water Reuse

86 |

HEALTH INFORMATION:

GREY WATER RE-USE SEPTEMBER 2017

HEALTH PROTECTION BRANCH MINISTRY OF HEALTH What is grey water?

Grey water is used household water sourced from baths, showers, bathroom basins and laundries, but doesn’t include toilet, kitchen sink, or dishwasher waste. Grey water may be re-used for low-risk purposes, such as subsurface irrigation of lawns, ornamental gardens, or toilet flushing. Generally, grey water from the kitchen (kitchen sink) is not recommended for reuse due to the high levels of organic materials such as oils and fats.

How does grey water differ from sewage (black water)?

Both grey water and black water are types of wastewater. Grey water is the result of water being used for household purposes, like bathing and washing clothes, while black water contains feces and urine and other bodily wastes. Grey water can be recycled as its bacterial count is much lower than black water, including the presence of pathogens. Accordingly, black water typically needs more intensive treatment to kill the disease carrying bacteria present. Recycled grey water also tends to turn into black water after use, as it can be used to flush toilets.

What laws apply to the use of grey water?

Technically under the Sewerage System Regulation, grey water is considered sewage, and discharging it onto land, into a source of drinking water, surface water, or tidal waters is considered a health hazard. All domestic sewage originating from a building must go into a public sewer or a sewerage system, unless it is authorized under the 2012 Building code.

The 2012 Building code allows for the construction of non-potable water systems, and subsurface irrigation with non-potable water. The Health Canada Guidelines for Domestic Reclaimed Water for use in Toilet and Urinal Flushing provides further guidance for grey water systems, and is referenced in the BC Building Code1. Local governments may also create bylaws which allow for the surface discharge of grey water if it meets the provisions of the building code for grey water disposal.

Facts about grey water disposal

x Owners of grey water systems need to be aware of potential environmental impacts related to grey water system maintenance and household habits, with particular attention to chemicals used in the home (such as cleaning products and laundry detergents). Runoff of grey water from the property must be avoided.

1 Canadian Guidelines for Domestic Reclaimed Water for Use in Toilet and Urinal Flushing, Federal-Provincial-Territorial Committee on health and the Environment, Ottawa, Ontario, January, 2010.

BC 2012 Building Code

Code of Practice for the Reuse of Grey water in Western Australia, 2010, Government of Western Australia, Department of Health

1 x Grey water to be used for irrigation should be discharged below ground to reduce the risk of human contact. However, surface discharge of grey water in the garden is possible, provided a balance is achieved with the amount of grey water applied, and the solids and nutrients present in the grey water that the plants and soil in the garden can absorb. Bucketing is a simple method to collect grey water directly from the bathroom and laundry and apply evenly on garden or lawn areas. Consider the following when irrigating your garden with grey water:

o Post warning signs to property users that the plants are surface-irrigated with grey water (‘avoid contact’). o Apply grey water evenly (to prevent ponding). o For laundry water, select garden-friendly detergents (biodegradable and low in phosphorus, boron, sodium, and chlorine). o Avoid watering vegetables or (fruit – fallen to ground) intended for raw consumption. o Don’t apply grey water in areas which are readily accessible to children, pets, or immunocompromised people. o Don’t reuse grey water when a household resident is sick (diarrhea, etc). o Don’t reuse grey water which contains cleaning products, hair dye, or other chemicals (paint, etc). o Properly manage grey water so it doesn’t flow into the street, neighbouring properties, or down storm water drains.

x Grey water treatment systems collect, store, treat (chemically and/or biologically) and may disinfect grey water to the standards specified by the local authority. Depending on the level of treatment, this enables the use of treated grey water for above ground irrigation, toilet flushing and cold water supply to washing machines. Treated grey water can be stored for longer than 24 hours, unlike untreated grey water. All grey water diversion and grey water treatment systems have to be approved by the local authority and must be installed by a licensed plumber.

x Grey water from laundries may contain high levels of sodium, carbonates, boron and phosphates, which may have long-term effects on plants or soils.

More information on grey water

Additional information on grey water can be obtained by contacting your local health unit (environmental health department), or the BC Ministry of Health, Health Protection Branch.

2 13 Appendix F City of Guelph - Guelph Residential Greywater Field Test Final Report

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GUELPH RESIDENTIAL GREYWATER FIELD TEST FINAL REPORT

June 29, 2012

This field test was carried out with assistance from the Green Municipal Fund, a Fund financed by the Government of Canada and administered by the Federation of Canadian Municipalities. Notwithstanding this support, the views expressed are the personal views of the authors, and the Federation of Canadian Municipalities and the Government of Canada accept no responsibility for them.

Table of Contents List of Tables ...... iv List of Figures ...... v 1.0 Introduction ...... 6 2.0 State of Home Greywater Systems ...... 11 2.1 Water Reuse Classifications ...... 11 2.2 Technology Approaches ...... 12 2.3 Standards ...... 15 3.0 Water & Energy Demands...... 18 3.1 Approach ...... 18 3.2 Home Water Use and Anticipated Water Savings ...... 18 3.3 Results vs. Anticipated Water Savings ...... 20 3.4 Addition of Potable Water – How Much and Why? ...... 21 3.5 System Energy Usage ...... 23 4.0 Water Quality Monitoring ...... 25 4.1 Approach ...... 25 4.2 Household Greywater Characteristics ...... 26 5.0 Social Feedback Monitoring & Acceptance ...... 31 5.1 Approach ...... 31 5.2 Quantitative Homeowner Surveys ...... 31 5.3 Focus Groups ...... 32 5.4 Stakeholder Interviews ...... 33 5.5 Qualitative Web-based Surveys ...... 33 5.6 Social Feedback Recommendations ...... 34 6.0 Financial Analysis ...... 36 6.1 Consumer Uptake of Demand Management Programming ...... 36 6.2 Payback on Investment ...... 36 6.3 Cost Effectiveness of Municipal Water Demand Management Programming ...... 39 6.4 Preliminary Lifecycle Assessment (PLCA) ...... 40 7.0 Backflow Prevention Device Assessment ...... 42 7.1 Approach ...... 42 7.2 Devices in Field ...... 42

iii

7.3 Recommendations ...... 42 8.0 Municipal Management Framework ...... 43 8.1 Background ...... 43 8.2 Management Framework Development ...... 43 8.3 City of Guelph Greywater Field Test Management Frameworks...... 44 8.4 Risk Management ...... 45 8.5 Impact on Overall Risk Level of Expanded System Implementation...... 49 8.6 Management Framework Recommendations ...... 50 9.0 Executive Summary & Recommendations ...... 52 10.0 References ...... 60

List of Tables Table 1: Pros and Cons of Decentralized and Communal Greywater Reuse Systems ...... 12 Table 2: Draft Health Canada Guideline values for reclaimed water used in toilet and urinal flushing ...... 16 Table 3: Potential Water Savings...... 20 Table 4: Average Water Savings ...... 21 Table 5: Overall compliance with Health Canada Guidelines...... 28 Table 6: Fecal coliform comparison from different toilets...... 29 Table 7: Examples of toilet water composition compared with turbidity...... 29 Table 8: New Home POI Scenario Variables: ...... 37 Table 9: Municipal Rebate Programs – Cost of Reclaimed Capacity ...... 40 Table 10: Risk Associated with Operational Requirements and Capacity Planning...... 46 Table 11: Risk Associated with Potential Source Contamination of Water System ...... 46 Table 12: Risk Associated with Education of Homeowners ...... 47 Table 13: Risk Associated with Availability of Contractor / Manufacturer to Provide Continuous Support of Greywater Reuse Systems ...... 48 Table 14: Risk Associated with Lack of Licensing, Permitting and Product Performance Standards...... 48 Table 15: Risk Associated with Not Implementing Greywater Re-use in the City ...... 49

Table 16: Risk Associated with Being a Leader in Relation to No Established Canadian Precedents 49

List of Figures Figure 1: Brac Greywater Reuse System (left) and IDus Controls‘ ConservePump Greywater Reuse System (right)...... 14 Figure 3: Water End Use Summary for Home Constructed Pre 1996...... 19 Figure 4: Water End Use Summary for New Homes ...... 19 Figure 5: Treated Greywater Sampling and Analysis...... 26 Figure 6: Range and mean values for untreated shower water - All sites (Turbidity, COD, BOD)...... 27 Figure 7: Range, mean, and % reduction values for treated greywater - All sites (Turbidity, COD, BOD)...... 27 Figure 8: New and Existing Homes Payback and Investment Scenario Summary ...... 38

1.0 Introduction

As Canadian communities continue to grow, further demand and competition for our fresh water resources is anticipated. Further compounding these stresses include the evolving impacts of climate change and the uncertainty of water availability resulting from changes to weather patterns. With this in mind, it is imperative that further attention be dedicated to the development of innovative demand management practices to ensure the efficient use and ongoing sustainability of our water resources.

To date, community water supply master planning has commonly followed a potable water source vs. demand matching approach, with other potential water resources, such as wastewater effluent or storm water reuse not gaining a great level of consideration. This practice has largely been the result of Canada’s perceived water abundance, however, as competition increases for available fresh water resources, it is anticipated that future local water supply planning studies will come to integrate these water supply alternatives.

Currently, all municipal water supplied to homes and businesses within the Province of Ontario must be potable, i.e., fit for drinking. Under this servicing model and the typical home plumbing orientation, the water we use to flush our toilets is exactly the same quality as the water we use for personal consumption. In looking to potential future water availability issues, the large scale adoption of home-based water effluent reuse technologies (greywater reuse) possesses the potential to offset current home-based household potable water demands by between 15% and 30%1, to alleviate stresses on current water resources, and to appropriately match water quality to water use. However, regardless of the many perceived benefits of these technologies, the uptake of home-based greywater reuse systems to date has largely been limited to home- based demonstrations due to a general lack of consumer awareness of the technology, high costs of purchase/installation of greywater systems, and the reluctance of homeowners to assume the maintenance activities required with these systems.

Beyond independent uptake of these technologies by individual homeowners, the support and promotion of these technologies amongst Canadian municipalities has also been limited. With the extent of implementation of demand management initiatives being solely based within local community needs and of the influence of local political will, many municipal water conservation programs remain focused on the implementation of more common and cost-effective program alternatives, i.e., the “low hanging fruit”. With great potential still present for many such programs (such as low flush volume toilet retrofits) within many communities, and the absence of public awareness and desire for greywater reuse technologies, promotion of residential greywater systems has been largely viewed as a premature program alternative within many municipal water conservation master plan studies. Further complicating uptake of these technologies on a municipal level is the lack of a municipal management framework for such programs and concerns regarding risk and municipal liability. With this in mind, endorsement of such projects (even on an individual home

1 Actual volume of water saved is dependent on the efficiency of the fixtures within the home. City of Guelph Residential Greywater Field Test 6 Final Report

basis) has been limited by municipal building officials in some jurisdictions due to concerns of public health, even in spite of provisions within the Ontario Building Code enabling the practice of home greywater reuse.

In the midst of all the current barriers and uncertainty regarding promotion and use of this technology, the potential for water savings are undeniable. Few would argue that, as many municipal water efficiency programs begin to reach saturation levels with their “low hanging fruit” measures, the next frontier of water supply will come from innovative technologies such effluent reuse and other non-potable water systems. However, in absence of current financial drivers and clear local climate change adaptation and mitigation targets, the appetite for such initiatives remains stagnant. Although other areas of the world have determined the necessary policy and service format models to implement these technologies, there continues to be a deficit of knowledge and capacity for such frameworks within the Province of Ontario. With this in mind, it is essential that further research be conducted to assess the feasibility of available technologies, and to promote capacity building in this area to ensure the efficient use and sustainability of our current and future water resources.

City of Guelph Community Water/Wastewater Servicing Planning and Support for Effluent Reuse

The City of Guelph strives to be a leader in water conservation and efficiency. As one of Canada’s largest communities reliant solely on a finite groundwater source for its drinking water needs, the City’s ability to reclaim precious water and wastewater servicing capacity through conservation initiatives offers numerous benefits. In looking to water supply capacity, community conservation programming offers water resource sustainability and financial competitiveness of the City’s water utility while meeting the water resource needs of significant community growth – an anticipated additional 50,000 persons by 2031 (Ontario Places to Grow Plan). Furthermore, when looking to wastewater servicing, as the assimilative capacity of the Speed River (the City’s sole location for treated wastewater effluent discharge) to accept increasing amounts of treated wastewater effluent is limited, the ability to reduce the volume of liquid wastewater requiring treatment offers ecological benefits to the Grand River Watershed as well as similar financial benefits to the City’s wastewater utility when looking at potential avoided community infrastructure investment through optimization and reduced operational costs for the utility.

In 2006 Guelph City Council endorsed the Water Supply Master Plan (WSMP). This detailed Master Plan evaluated the water demand associated with projected growth over a 50 year planning horizon, as well as alternative sources of new water supply. Water conservation was identified as the most cost-effective and immediately available source of new water supply and was ranked as the #1 priority through this plan. The WSMP included three reduction targets based on 2006 daily water production volumes: x Reduction of 10% (5,300 m3/day) in average day water use by 2010; x Reduction of 15% (7,950 m3/day) in average day water use by 2017; and x Reduction of 20% (10,600 m3/day) in average day water use by 2025

City of Guelph Residential Greywater Field Test 7 Final Report

Both the 2007 Community Energy Initiative and the 2007 Council Strategic Plan set sustainability performance goals of using “less water and energy per capita than any comparable Canadian city.” These goals continue to guide the City’s current water conservation activities and bring greater emphasis to the relationship between water supply, wastewater treatment, and energy demand.

To achieve these targets City staff initiated the Water Conservation and Efficiency Strategy (WCES) Update in February of 2008. This award winning 10-year strategy was endorsed by Council in May 2009 and identifies the preferred program, policy, and resource recommendations to achieve a further reduction of 8,773 m3/day by 2019, as well as to achieve the aggressive reduction targets of the Water Supply Master Plan, Water and Wastewater Master Servicing Study, Wastewater Treatment Master Plan, Community Energy Initiative, and Council's Strategic Plan.

Through development of the WCES it was noted that many long standing local municipal water conservation programs, such as toilet or clothes washers retrofit rebates, would reach saturation within the existing housing sector by the end of the 10 year planning horizon of this strategy. Therefore, in meeting the long- term targets of the City’s Water Supply Master Plan further capacity development was required in the research and evaluation of new demand management alternatives. As part of public consultation completed through development of the WCES strong public and political support for centralized demand substitution approaches, including greywater reuse and rainwater harvesting, was expressed. With this in mind, pilot programs for home-based greywater reuse and rainwater harvesting programs were approved by Guelph City Council as part of the final strategy to further investigate these technology alternatives and build the necessary technical and social capacity for future readiness of these alternatives.

Beyond the evaluation of centralized home-based greywater reuse systems as recommended through the WCESU, the City’s 2006 Water Supply Master Plan, 2008 Water and Wastewater Servicing Master Plan, and 2009 Wastewater Treatment Master Plan also began exploring demand substitution from a communal approach. Through these plans the introduction of a communal effluent reuse system is discussed conceptually through the introduction of enhanced wastewater treatment and distribution of treated effluent to customers within the City’s urban boundary. Although these Master Plans do anticipate a benefit associated reducing water/wastewater demands and avoiding related capital/operation requirements, key challenges facing implementation of a communal effluent reuse system include the absence of necessary infrastructure design/legislative frameworks for such systems in Ontario, thresholds to the amount of effluent which could be reused in maintaining the necessary assimilative capacity of Speed River (to which treated wastewater is currently discharged), as well as defining the necessary customer base to support significant capital investment and ongoing operation costs of such a utility. With reference to these ongoing challenges, the City’s Wastewater Treatment Master Plan recommends completion of an Urban Reuse Study within its initial 10-year forecast to further evaluate the technical feasibility and proposed viability of a communal effluent reuse utility within Guelph.

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Guelph Residential Greywater Reuse Field Test

In May of 2009 the City of Guelph initiated the Residential Greywater Reuse Field Test to assess the feasibility of large scale adoption of home-based greywater reuse technologies. The study set a target of installing greywater systems in a total of 30 homes (both existing and new homes)to assess system performance in real world environments. Five core areas of study were chosen by the project team, including:

x System Operation and Performance x Homeowner Satisfaction x Household Water Use Monitoring x Municipal Management Frameworks and Required Support Networks x Premise Isolation Device Requirements

To solicit participation in the study, City staff completed consultations with interested members of the Guelph and District Home Builders Association in late 2008. As a result of these consultations, three local home builders, Fusion Homes, Reid’s Heritage Homes, and Evolve Builders Group, agreed to participate in the field test and to market residential greywater reuse systems to their clientele.

To promote uptake of technology, Guelph offered an incentive of $1500 to the home builders for each greywater system installed in a new home, and $1500 to home owners that installed an approved system in their existing home. The program was initially marketed through a variety of public education and media outlets, including promotion of the greywater brochure at various public outreach events in the City of Guelph, advertisements in the local newspapers, and through the City of Guelph’s website—all intended to increase public education, awareness, and promotion of the program.

Program participants were also provided with backflow prevention (premise isolation) devices as well as financial compensation towards the annual testing of these devices over a five-year period. As of completion of this report, the pilot study had a total of 25 participants, including ten new homes and fifteen existing retrofitted homes. In exchange for receiving the incentives identified above, participants had to agree to allow City representatives to monitor the water quality of the greywater produced by their system on a monthly basis for a period of 12 months, with a single final water quality sample to be taken 24 months after system installation. Additionally, participants were requested to provide feedback through social feedback forums, interviews, and surveys to share their experiences and feelings towards the technology.

For reference, additional information regarding Guelph`s Residential Greywater Field Test may be found at www.guelph.ca/greywater.

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Greywater Field Test Project Team

A multi-stakeholder project team was established to direct the development, implementation, and evaluation of the study. This project team included local representatives from academia, the home building and home industry, water efficiency engineering consultants, and City staff. The project team is identified below:

Academia:

x Matthew DeLuca, M.Sc., University of Guelph x Khosrow Farahbakhsh, Ph.D., P. Eng., University of Guelph x Benjamin Kelly, Ph.D., Nippissing University

City Staff:

x David Auliffe, City of Guelph x Wayne Galliher, A.Sc.T, City of Guelph x Jennifer Gilks, M.Sc., City of Guelph

Home Builders:

x Andy Oding, Reid’s Heritage Homes x Ben Polley, Evolve Builders Group x Ron Thompson, Fusion Homes

Professional Engineering Consultants:

x Bill Gauley, P.Eng., Veritec Consulting Inc.

The City of Guelph would like to thank the members of project team and their respective organizations for their great significant contributions and overall value added to the Guelph Residential Greywater Field Test.

Federation of Canadian Municipalities Green Municipal Fund

In December 2008, Guelph received notice from the Federation of Canadian Municipalities (FCM) that $72,524 in grant funding was to be provided through FCM Green Municipal Fund for the Guelph Residential Greywater Reuse field test. FCM’s gracious financial support has provided the necessary resources for the City and project team to effectively evaluate the social, economic, and environmental impacts associated with implementing home-based water reuse technologies as well as the considerations in establishing the appropriate municipal management frameworks for home water reuse technologies. The City of Guelph would like to sincerely thank FCM for their support of this initiative and it is hoped that the findings of this study will help to build further capacity and continue dialogue on water reuse amongst communities across Canada. For more information on the FCM Green Municipal Fund please visit: www.fcm.ca.

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2.0 State of Home Greywater Systems

2.1 Water Reuse Classifications Domestic greywater reuse involves decentralizing wastewater treatment. This practice can reduce water and wastewater treatment demands but increases the involvement of individual home/property owners in the management of their water resources (van Roon, 2007)(Rygaard, Binning, & Albrechtsen, 2010). Through this service model the challenge remains in ensuring public safety, the reliability of greywater reuse systems (GWRS), and managing new responsibilities at the homeowner, regulatory, or governmental levels.

To help manage these challenges, regulatory level codes and standards are commonly used to define the desired construction standards and the approved end uses of greywater to ensure system reliability and protection of public health.

In Canada, regulations have only recently been formed to address greywater reuse practices. For example, the 2006 Ontario Building Code (OBC) specifies that particulate free storm sewage (including household greywater) may be used for toilet or urinal flushing as well as the priming of floor drain traps. However, in other areas of the world where greywater reuse has been more widely practiced, extended end uses of greywater (such as outdoor irrigation) are allowed provided necessary water treatment standards have been met to safeguard public safety when the potential for increased direct personal exposure to greywater is anticipated (such as public sports fields irrigated by treated wastewater effluent). As an example within North America, the US Environmental Protection Agency delineates different categories of wastewater effluent quality and subsequently directs applicable treatment approaches to manage risk associated with public and environmental exposure within each categorization. These effluent quality categorizations are included below for reference:

x Unrestricted Urban Reuse & Recreational Use - Unrestricted refers to the contact the general public will have with water treated to this quality. This category would include the irrigation of parks and sports fields, fire protection, decorative fountains, and urban uses such as toilet flushing.

x Restricted Urban Reuse - This category restricts use of reclaimed water to activities that result in no contact with the general public or where the areas affected are restricted from the general public. This level of water quality could be used for private landscape irrigation, municipal works uses, such as street cleaning and sewer flushing, and for construction purposes, such as site dust control and concrete making.

x Industrial Reuse - Industrial uses of reclaimed water varies based on the requirements of the industry, this could include the use of reclaimed water for equipment washing, cooling towers, stack scrubbing, boiler feed, and process water.

x Groundwater Recharge - Groundwater recharge is used to ensure a stable, high quality ground water supply. This process requires reclaimed water of a high quality to be pumped into a holding area, where it is allowed to infiltrate into the water table below, replenishing the ground water supply.

City of Guelph Residential Greywater Field Test 11 Final Report

2.2 Technology Approaches The implementation of greywater reuse systems can occur through both decentralized (site based) and communal approaches. Communal systems have been seen in many areas of the world where issues relating to water scarcity have been experienced, such as within the southern US, Australia, and Israel. In comparing communal and decentralized greywater systems, there are obvious benefits and drawbacks for the implementation of both.

Table 1: Pros and Cons of Decentralized and Communal Greywater Reuse Systems

Decentralized Systems Pros Cons • Low cost • Performance dependant on homeowners’ • No need to stage timing of other infrastructure maintenance removal • Lack of controls for municipality • Technology exists and is available – Can’t know the details of each individual home • Technology readiness and uptake • Social acceptance

Communal Systems Pros Cons • High level of automation • High capital cost initially • Controls in place • Does a customer base exist? – Quality and quantity • Lack of standards • Feasibility – Portion of treated wastewater which could be utilized

The Guelph Greywater Reuse Field Test selected decentralized home based systems as the preferred servicing approach due to the low cost of implementation (compared to communal models) as well as the local availability of technology and associated expertise. In compliance with local building codes, these systems aimed to reclaim only shower water within the home for later treatment and use in satisfying household toilet flushing demands. As a result, this approach was also preferable as it limited the direct exposure of the public to the treated greywater source, in accordance with the EPA Restricted Urban Use classification noted above.

In concert with the field test, the City also continues to consider other servicing options for effluent reuse in recognition of local resource limitations and anticipated community growth. In October 2011, an environmental assessment was conducted for a large trunk sewer through which feasibility assessment of a communal effluent reuse or a “purple-pipe” system to be installed in parallel with truck sewer was conducted. The technical memorandum to this report evaluating the “Purple Pipe System”, entitled “York

City of Guelph Residential Greywater Field Test 12 Final Report

Trunk Sewer and Paisley-Clythe Feedermain Municipal Class Environmental Assessment”, can be found in the Appendix A of this report.

With reference to decentralized systems, there are currently many examples of technologies being employed for domestic greywater for reuse. Greywater technologies can vary from extremely complex to relatively simple. Some approaches include reed filtration systems, biological treatment, gravity sand filtration, simple mesh screening systems, and UV filtration. These technologies have been used on different scales, from individual homes, to apartment buildings, to small communities, with varying success. Most systems involve a filtration step for pre-treatment and end with some type of disinfection to control microbial growth. Some studies have shown that simple greywater systems using solely coarse filters do not provide an appropriate level of treatment, so systems utilizing additional (and commonly more complex) systems have emerged (Li, Wichmann, & Otterpohl, 2009). These more complex systems can include a filter/sedimentation process, a soil filtration process, and a membrane system.

For purposes of the Field Test, selection of the home based technology was completed by the home owner or home builder, accordingly. In total, 24 of the 25 participating homes installed the Brac Greywater Reuse System. The remaining home in the Field Test installed the iDus Controls’ Conserve Pump system. Pictures of these technologies are included within Figure 1 & Figure 2 below. With reference to treatment approach, both systems collect raw greywater discharged from showers and baths in the home, filter the raw greywater through a bag or cartridge filter to remove particulates and soap residue, and then (in the case of the Brac System) disinfect the greywater source by passing it over a chlorine puck. The chlorine puck also ensures that there is free chlorine residual in the greywater which is stored in a tank until required for toilet flushing. If ever a situation occurs where there is insufficient greywater stored in the tank to meet toilet flushing requirements, both system are designed to add potable water to the storage tank until the minimum storage level is achieved. The potable water is added using an air gap to prevent any cross contamination between the greywater and potable water systems.

City of Guelph Residential Greywater Field Test 13 Final Report

Figure 1: Brac Greywater Reuse System (left) and IDus Controls‘ ConservePump Greywater Reuse System (right)

To maintain water quality in periods of prolonged greywater storage, the Brac system also features a recirculation function where treated stored greywater is recycled back over the chlorine puck and then returned to the storage tank. This recirculation function can be set to occur at a given frequency by the homeowner (in earlier Brac models this recirculation feature was controlled manually by the homeowner). Conversely, to manage bacterial growth in the absence of chlorine disinfection the ConservePump system actively purges stored greywater on a 48- or 72-hour basis. Many other devices and components are available for reuse systems. Devices can be broken down into three tiers, ranked on complexity and price. Tier one ranges from $250-$500 and involves gathering water from the bathroom sink, filtering and disinfecting the water, and then using this water for toilet flushing. Tier two systems, which are represented by technologies such as the Conserve Pump and BRAC system used in the Pilot Program, range in price from $3000-$4500. These models have extensive ranges of use for residential, semi-commercial, and commercial applications. The third tier of systems range from $7000- $20000 and have capabilities for a greater volume of greywater. The treatment functionality for these systems is more comprehensive than tier 1 and tier 2, involving pre-filtration, enhanced disinfection, biological treatment, aeration, sediment disposal, UV sterilization, and a pressure pump. This tier of treatment focuses on full treatment of greywater and has a higher removal of solids and a biological treatment. Focusing on the second tier of systems, the type of systems used in the Field Test, it is important to note differences in performance, installation, and operation. BRAC units are modular all-in-one systems possessing a filtering device as well as a disinfection component; however, ConservePump units are “smart box’ and component based systems including filtration only as part of its treatment approach. With BRAC systems, homeowners can select a 150L, 250L or 350L storage tank, depending on number of persons in their home and the associated storage needs. Conversely, with the smart box being the only permanent City of Guelph Residential Greywater Field Test 14 Final Report

component of the ConservePump system, the selection of other system components (such as tank size or filter type) are easily adaptable to meet premise based installation requirements and limitations (available space, etc).

2.3 Standards With no current Canadian performance standards or associated labeling programs for certified water reuse technologies, the City of Guelph, through consultation with other City Departments and industry professionals, defined a standard for technology selection for the field test, with reference to existing standards of the Ontario Building Code, Health Canada, and Canadian Standards Association. No specific technologies were selected as “City approved technologies” due to the desire to leave the program open for residents or home builders to choose their preferred technology. This approach to technology selection also kept the standard inclusive of other technologies that may not have been known at the time of field test introduction. Thus, the selection of technology through the Field Test was driven by market forces, product awareness, and perceived consumer value in the technologies.

Further to the above, applicable standard requirements for the systems can be found in a variety of sources. For example, the Ontario Building Code, Canadian Standards Association, 2010 Health Canada Canadian Guidelines for Domestic Water Reuse for Toilet and Urinal Flushing, and Guelph’s Backflow prevention Bylaw all contain relevant information directing auxiliary water system installation, operation, testing, and quality guidelines. These standards are summarized below for reference:

Ontario Building Code The 2006 Ontario Building Code (OBC) allows treated and particulate free greywater to be used only for only toilet/urinal flushing and the priming of floor drains within the home. Furthermore, the OBC also stipulates that home plumbing lines carrying greywater to be fully marked in English and French as “non-potable.” Outdoor uses of greywater are not explicitly specified in the OBC. The code specifies definitions of storm sewage, greywater and non-potable as follows: • Storm sewage: “Storm Sewage means water that is discharged from a surface as a result of rainfall, snow melt or snowfall.” • Greywater: “Greywater means sanitary sewage of domestic origin that is derived from fixtures other than sanitary units.” • Non-potable water: not explicitly a defined term, modified version of potable, meaning “fit for human consumption”

2010 Health Canada Canadian Guidelines for Domestic Water Reuse for Toilet and Urinal Flushing Health Canada developed guidelines for the use of greywater as well as defined values for water quality of treated greywater. The Canadian Guidelines for Domestic Reclaimed Water for use in Toilet and Urinal Flushing ensure that the operation of water reclamation systems and exposure to treated greywater in the home ensures the protection of public health. The guidelines were developed as an option to reduce water City of Guelph Residential Greywater Field Test 15 Final Report

consumption in Canada and to serve as a guideline to the Canadian public when installing and operating auxiliary water systems. With this in mind, the guidelines outline treated greywater objectives values for biological oxygen demand, total suspended solids, turbidity, Escherichia coli, thermotolerant coliforms, and total chlorine residual. For purposes of assessing system performance, the water quality criteria of the draft 2007 Health Canada Canadian Guidelines for Domestic Water Reuse for Toilet and Urinal Flushing (Health Canada standard) were utilized as performance goals for treated greywater quality. These water quality criteria of the draft standard are “intended to enhance treatment reliability and disinfection effectiveness, thus protecting public health”. The standard further recommends that these parameters be used as a means of evaluating system treatment effectiveness at the time of start-up or at regular testing intervals during normal system operation. For reference treated greywater quality criteria from the draft Health Canada standard is provided below in Table 2 below:

Table 2: Draft Health Canada Guideline values for reclaimed water used in toilet and urinal flushing

Water quality parameters Parameter Units Median Maximum

BOD5 mg/L d10 d20 TSSb mg/L d10 d20 Turbidityb NTU d2 (alternative to TSS) d5 (alternative to TSS) Escherichia colic CFU/100 mL Not detected d200 Thermotolerant CFU/100 mL Not detected d200 coliformsc Total Chlorine residuald mg/L t0.5 a Unless otherwise noted, recommended quality limits apply to the reclaimed water at the point of discharge from the treatment facility or treatment unit. BOD5 = five-day biochemical oxygen demand; TSS = total suspended solids; NTU = nephelometric turbidity unit; CFU = colony-forming unit. b Measured prior to disinfection point. c Only one of either Escherichia coli or thermotolerant coliforms needs to be monitored in a given system. Further information is provided in Box 1. d Measured at the point where the treated effluent enters the distribution/plumbing system.

Backflow Prevention Device Backflow prevention devices are required to protect municipality’s drinking water supplies from potential sources of risk. With this in mind, The City’s Backflow prevention bylaw defines potential risks by land use (such as the presence of greywater or auxiliary water use system) , stipulates the type of premise isolation device required for installation, and device maintenance requirements to ensure ongoing working order of the device and protection of the municipal water system. For reference Guelph’s Backflow Prevention Bylaw and associated resources may be viewed at www.guelph.ca/backflow.

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Canadian Standards Association The Canadian Standards Association (CSA) is a recognized source for safety and performance standards. CSA standard B64.10, Selection and installation of backflow preventers/Maintenance and field testing of backflow preventers, is the standard used to test for compliant backflow devices. More recently, CSA developed B128.1 and B128.2 which provides best practices in the design and installation of non-potable water systems/Maintenance and field testing of non-potable water systems. CSA B128.1/B128.2 are not referenced by the current addition of Ontario’s Building Code and as a result are not enforceable through common building inspection processes. Additionally, CSA B128.3, which is anticipated for release in the Spring of 2013, will define performance standards for non-potable water treatment systems as well as act as a means to certify water reuse systems achieving the set operational parameters of this standard. This draft standard was referenced in the course of this field test with more information available at: http://www.cwwa.ca/pdf_files/CSA_B128_3_Notice_Feb%2024%2010.pdf Third-Party Performance Testing Standards

An issue that presents itself in the widespread implementation of reuse water is the lack of third-party performance standards and certifications available for such systems. As stated above performance based standards for such systems are not currently available in Canada. In the United States, the International Association of Plumbing and Mechanical Officials (IAPMO) provides third party standards for the construction, installation, discharge, and use of greywater systems. IAPMO Research and testing inspects and evaluates Reclaimed Water Conservation Systems for flushing toilets to verify compliance to applicable codes and standards. The standard that was applied to the used greywater reuse systems can be referenced as IAPMO IGC 207 – 2009a. This standard was used to confirm that the systems meet the minimum requirements for protection of public health and safety associated with reclaimed water conservation at the toilet level, the materials in the construction of a reclaimed water conservation system for toilet flushing and to prescribe the minimum testing requirements for the performance of the reclaimed water conservation system for flushing toilets, together with methods of marking and identification. This standard specifically tests the systems on the operating performance, hydrostatic pressure, mechanical setup, and the chlorine disinfection system to ensure they are within the limit requirements. For more information on IAPMO and their programs, please visit. http://www.iapmo.org/pages/iapmo_green.aspx

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3.0 Water & Energy Demands

3.1 Approach A primary goal of this study was to verify the effectiveness of residential greywater systems to lower household water and energy demands. Veritec Consulting Inc. was retained to monitor the water and energy demands associated with greywater system operation. As part of the water use monitoring, additional water meters were installed on the potable water top-up supply piping and on the treated greywater line of home greywater systems, with water use readings taken by City staff on a monthly basis. In addition, water billing records for all homes were analyzed on an ongoing basis to assess changes in water consumption (amongst homes retrofitted with a greywater system) and average daily household water demands in comparison to control homes (within new construction). A subset of ten of the homes in the study also had data logging water meters installed which allowed for the collection of heightened information on 15 second intervals from all meters as well as the ability to remotely download demand information via radio signals for the duration of the study.

Additionally, kilowatt hour meters were installed on the power supply to the greywater systems to measure energy demands. The energy used by the greywater systems was compared with the energy demands of a municipal water treatment and distribution system providing the same volume of water.

3.2 Home Water Use and Anticipated Water Savings The 1996 Ontario Build Code permits the use of particulate free Storm Sewage, including greywater, for use in toilet/urinal flushing as well as the priming of floor drain traps within residential dwellings. Beyond building code approval for the use of greywater within the home it is necessary to determine whether sufficient amounts of greywater would be available on a daily basis to meet the water needs for flushing toilets in the home. Toilet flushing remains one of the largest uses of water in the home. The 1999 American Water Works Association Research Foundation’s Residential End Uses of Water Study identified the average daily water demand required for toilet flushing as about 83 litres per capita per day (Lcd), , followed by clothes washing at 52 Lcd, and showers at 47 Lcd. This AWWA study involved detailed monitoring and data logging of household water demands in many North American jurisdictions, including the Region of Waterloo locally. Figure 1 below illustrates the breakdown of daily household water demands for homes built prior to 1996 as determined in the 1999 AWWARF study:

City of Guelph Residential Greywater Field Test 18 Final Report

Figure 2: Water End Use Summary for Home Constructed Pre 1996

As can be seen in Figure 1, the volume of greywater produced from shower events (47 Lcd) would not be sufficient to meet the full water demands for toilet flushing (83 Lcd). For homes fitted with inefficient fixtures and appliances it may be necessary to collect greywater from the clothes washer (52 Lcd) as well as the shower to ensure that there is sufficient greywater to meet all toilet flushing needs.

New homes, however, are fitted with much more efficient fixtures and appliances and, therefore, use much less water. The following chart illustrates the water demand breakdown of a typical new home fitted with 6-L toilets and 9.5 Lpm showerheads (both OBC requirements) and a water efficient front-loading clothes washer.

Figure 3: Water End Use Summary for New Homes

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Note that in typical new homes the volume of greywater discharged by showering events (43 Lcd) exceeds the volume of greywater required for toilet flushing (30 Lcd or less if home is fitted with high-efficiency toilets). In new homes, therefore, collecting greywater from shower events is sufficient to meet all expected toilet flushing requirements. Since the potential volume of water saved by utilizing greywater for toilet flushing is directly related to the flush volume and frequency of the household toilets (assuming that the average person flushes a toilet in their home 5 times per day as identified in the 1999 AWWA RF REUS), the following table illustrates the different potential water savings for different toilet flush volumes. Note that as the home’s toilets become more efficient, the volume of potable water saved on a daily basis become less.

Table 3: Potential Water Savings

Flush volume of Toilets in Home, L Flushes per Capita per Day Potential Savings, Lcd 20 5 100 13.2 5 66 6.0 5 30 4.8 5 24 3.0 5 15

The maximum water savings per home is directly related to the volume of greywater used for toilet flushing. Based on Table 3 above the maximum potential savings for a home fitted with efficient 4.8 L toilets would average about 24 Lcd. Because there is a significant natural variation in water demands from day to day for any household, using water billing data or even periodically reading the home’s water meter would provide only an indication of the water savings achieved by the City’s greywater field test as a whole. The methodology used in this program to verify water savings, i.e., directly metering the greywater demands of the toilets within each home as well as any potable water makeup used, eliminates any extraneous factors and provides a relatively precise quantification of the true water savings.

3.3 Results vs. Anticipated Water Savings At the time of this report, water savings data from 9 of 10 homes possessing heightened water metering was available. The average daily water savings for each of these homes is identified in the following table. Note that two sites, No. 8 and No. 9, were retrofitted homes that had inefficient 13-litre per flush toilets installed and, therefore, achieved a higher than expected per capita savings (recall that water savings is directly related to the volume of water used to flush toilets within each home).

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Table 4: Average Water Savings

Site No. Average Daily Savings, L Persons per Household Lcd Savings 1 68 4 17.0 2 97 6 16.2 3 66 4 16.5 4 74 5 14.8 5 58 3 19.3 6 36 2 18.0 7 29 2 14.5 8* 96* 2 48.0* 9* 79* 2 39.5* Overall Average 22.6 Average of homes with water-efficient toilets installed 16.6 *Homes were equipped with inefficient toilet fixtures

As can be seen in the table above, the overall average water savings to date is 22.6 Lcd, or just slightly lower than the maximum calculated rate of 24 Lcd based on 5 flushes per capita per day using 4.8-L toilets. When only those homes with water-efficient 4.8 L toilets are factored in, the average daily water savings is approximately 16.6 Lcd, or about 70% of the expected 24 Lcd savings. One possible reason for lower than expected savings is that the number of toilet flushes in the participating homes was actually less than the assumed 5 flushes per capita per day based on the AWWA REUS data. For example, a small baby would not use the toilet at all and someone that works long hours out of the home or that spends time at the gym or at a friend’s home may flush less than 5 times per day at their home. Other possible reasons are presented in the following section.

That being said, the actual average water savings achieved by the homes fitted with efficient showers and toilets is within 8 Lcd of the calculated maximum potential savings, indicating that greywater systems can effectively provide sufficient water to meet household toilet flushing requirements.

3.4 Addition of Potable Water – How Much and Why? Another reason that water savings were lower than expected was because greywater systems in every participating home received some quantity of potable water during the monitoring period. While an average household should produce enough greywater to more than satisfy its toilet flushing requirements, there may be occasions when toilet flushing needs exceed the volume of water collected from showers (such as during house parties). In these cases, the greywater system adds a minimal volume of potable water to prevent the system’s pump from running dry while still leaving sufficient room in the tank to accept additional greywater from the home’s showers.

As stated earlier, monitoring equipment was installed to measure the total greywater utilization by each home and the volume of potable water added to each greywater storage tank. While these volumes varied from home to home, the average volume of greywater utilization for homes fitted with 4.8 L toilets (i.e., total greywater production minus any overflow volume) was approximately 80 L/household/day and the average volume of potable water makeup was approximately 20 L/household/day, resulting in a net water savings of City of Guelph Residential Greywater Field Test 21 Final Report

60 L/household/day. Stated another way, on average, about 25% of the greywater supplied for toilet flushing was actually potable water. The volume of potable water added to the greywater systems, however, varied significantly from home to home - from a low of 2.5 L/household/day to a high of 191 L/household/day.

Effects of Greywater Reuse on Municipal Max Day and Peak Hour Demands

All of the homes participating in Guelph’s program collected greywater from showers and/or baths. Reducing potable water demands by any means will help reduce peak day demands. The average savings achieved to date in this study (for homes fitted with water-efficient toilets) was 16.6 litres per capita per day (Lcd), though it is anticipated that an ultimate potential savings of approximately 24 Lcd (i.e., 5 flushes/capita/day x 4.8 L/flush) can be achieved should performance of the greywater reuse systems be optimized.

Guelph’s current max day to average annual day demand ratio is approximately 1.6 (i.e., the water demand on the highest demand day of the year, typically during the summer, is 60% greater than the average demand throughout the year).

In 2011 Guelph experienced an average annual day demand of about 40 million litres per day with a population of about 122,000 persons. The max day demand in 2011 was approximately 64 million litres. A successful city-wide adoption of residential greywater reuse systems would be expected to ultimately reduce demands by about 24 Lcd (the potential savings associated with inefficient toilets would be greater, however, over time, it is expected that essentially all toilets in the City will be converted to efficient models). With a population of about 122,000 persons, the potential savings would be about 3.0 million litres per day (MLd)2, thus the max day demand would also be lowered by the same 3.0 MLd or by about 4.7%.

Peak greywater production (collection) in a home tends to occur in the early morning as people shower or bath before they start their day. The greywater collected during the early morning is used slowly throughout the day as homeowners periodically flush toilets. Peak hour water demands tend to occur during the evening when homeowners turn on their lawn sprinklers. Given that the flow rate from a lawn sprinkler is typically about 1,500 litres per hour, eliminating a small number of 4.8-L toilet flushes will have a negligible impact on peak hour demands.

Full Greywater Reuse Program Roll-out in City

As stated above – the potential city-wide adoption of residential greywater reuse systems would be expected to ultimately reduce Guelph’s average annual day demands by about 3.0 million litres per day (MLd), a savings that equals about 7.5% of the current average daily demand. This savings estimate assumes that the city’s entire toilet stock will eventually be converted to 4.8-L models (HETs). Should the toilet marketplace continue to evolve and flush volumes of only 3.0 litres become the new ‘standard’ for HETs (WaterSense- approved 3-L fixtures are currently available in the marketplace) the potential water savings would be expected to be slightly less at about 1.9 MLd or 4.85 of the current average daily demand.

2 122,000 persons x 24 L/person/day = 2,928,000 L/day = 2.928 MLd City of Guelph Residential Greywater Field Test 22 Final Report

3.5 System Energy Usage

To measure the energy requirements of the pumps used to convey greywater from the system’s storage tank located in home’s basement to the various toilets within each home, a small power meter (Kill-A-Watt™ power meter) was installed on the energy source of the greywater supply pump in each participating home. This power meter recorded the total energy in kWh used by each pump. By comparing the total energy demand to the total volume of greywater pumped by each system it is possible to determine the average unit energy use, i.e., the energy demand in kWh per m3 of grey water used.

The unit energy use values are slightly different for each of these homes but this difference can be explained by difference in the physical attributes of each home – one home may flush toilets on upper floor more often, have a longer run of water supply piping, etc.

At this time, energy demand data is available from only two homes. These values are: - 1.30 kWh for every cubic meter (kWh/m3) of greywater pumped to 1.85 kWh/m3, resulting in an average value of 1.58 kWh/m3. If we assume a typical greywater demand of 24 m3 per year per home (based on 4.0 persons per home and a grey water usage of 16.6 Lcd) and an energy demand of 1.58 kWh/m3 the total energy demand would be 38 kWh per year. Based on a cost of about $0.08 per kWh, the associated energy costs would be about $3.00 per household per year.

While the total energy demands and costs associated with operating a greywater system would be minimal to a homeowner, it should be noted that a municipality would be expected to save approximately 0.74 kWh for every m3 of water and wastewater saved by an efficiency measure – less than half of the additional energy demand of approximately 1.58 kWh/m3 required to operate this type of residential greywater system3. In other words, for every kWh saved by a municipal water/wastewater system through the installation of a residential greywater system, the participating homeowner would be expected to use some amount of energy in excess of one kWh. It is expected that the greater unit energy efficiency achieved by the municipal system is because of economies of scale, i.e., the municipal system uses larger pumps, larger diameter pipes with less head loss, etc.

Although the energy demand data collected to date as part of this project is significantly limited (energy demand data from only two homes was collected), it appears that small residential greywater systems are less energy efficient than large municipal systems. As such, while the widespread use of residential grey water systems would be expected to reduce municipal water demands, their use may also increase total energy demands within a municipality.

A net increase in energy demands as a result of the use of residential greywater systems would result in a net increase in GHG emissions. Using an estimated average annual greywater demand of 24 m3 per home per year and lower of the two monitored energy demand rates of 1.3 kWh per m3, the total energy demands for a residential greywater system would be approximately 31 kWh per home per year. This energy demand

3 Greenhouse Gas and Energy Co-Benefits of Water Conservation, March 2009, Carol Maas, Table 1 - systems providing at least 5,000 m3/day. City of Guelph Residential Greywater Field Test 23 Final Report

equates to a GHG emission of approximately 8 kg of CO2e per year4. The energy demand associate with supplying 24 m3 per year of water for toilet flushing via Guelph’s municipal system would be somewhat less at approximately 18 kWh per home per year, a demand that equates to a GHG emission of only about 5 kg of CO2e per year.

4 Based on Ontario coefficient of 0.27 a kg CO2/kWh as identified in Greenhouse Gas and Energy Co-Benefits of Water Conservation, March 2009, Carol Maas City of Guelph Residential Greywater Field Test 24 Final Report

4.0 Water Quality Monitoring

4.1 Approach As part of Water Quality Monitoring for the Field Test, the City of Guelph sampled greywater at 20 participant households on a monthly basis for a one-year period. Dip samples of treated greywater were collected from toilets within each home with City staff completing onsite testing for Turbidity and Chlorine Residuals. Beyond onsite sampling and analysis, samples for parameters including biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD), and Escherichia coli (E.coli) were collected by City staff at each home and submitted to Maxxam Analytics Laboratory in Mississauga for testing.

In addition, researchers at the University of Guelph School of Engineering conducted sampling at the 5 remaining homes on a bi-weekly basis. As part of this sampling program, water quality samples were taken of both the shower water entering the greywater reuse system (influent) as well as grey water being supplied to the toilets (effluent). Participants were instructed to collect shower water by plugging their tub and taking a sample of the water following their shower. The raw and treated greywater samples were picked up in the morning for laboratory analysis at the University. Throughout the study duplicate samples were taken by researchers for testing at both Maxxam Analytics and the University to ensure consistency in results attained.

The Health Canada guidelines specify that at least 5 greywater samples should be taken from a system each month to accurately determine the median values, however, neither the City or the University collected samples at this frequently due to challenges in attaining access to private residents under this frequency and financial limitations associated with satisfying this sampling regime. However, to support program participants throughout the duration of the study, homeowners were given the opportunity to request the completion of additional water quality samples at their home should issues or other challenges be experienced with their system.

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Figure 4: Treated Greywater Sampling and Analysis

4.2 Household Greywater Characteristics There are many factors that influence shower water effluent quality, including general household practices and the types of personal hygiene and cleaning products used in the shower. For example, the frequency of shower cleaning, shower duration, and the amount and type of soap/shampoo/conditioner used will affect water quality, as will the hygiene practices of the person showering, the frequency of showering, etc. The volume of water used while showering is also important as it can change the water quality by diluting the amount of soap and dirt present in the water sample. These multiple factors contribute to a raw shower water quality that varied greatly between households in this study. For example, mean BOD values ranged from 78.6 to 317.3 mg/L.

With respect to common indicators for pathogens, such as E.Coli, it is important to note that different persons will naturally have different levels of fecal coliforms in their intestines and on their body based on their biology (age, gender, and weight), personal hygiene practices, and type of work (Ludwig, 2009). Thus, the amount of microbes being passed onto the greywater source via showering can vary significantly between different individuals. To achieve Health Canada treated greywater water guidelines, therefore, treatment methodologies employed by water reuse technologies should be able to manage a wide range of raw water quality.

Treatment Efficiency (Raw vs. Treated) – Subset of Homes

Sampling of raw greywater and treated greywater was conducted at a subset of homes demonstrated improvements in water quality as a result of treatment. However, effluent quality was clearly influenced by the initial quality of the raw shower water. In looking at this in more detail, it can be seen in Figure 3 & Figure 4 below that the ranking of quality does not change following treatment. In other words, the sites with the

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highest quality of raw greywater produced the highest quality of effluent, and sites with the worst initial quality produced the worst effluent.

1200.0

1000.0

800.0 Max 600.0 Min

400.0 Mean

200.0

0.0 14) 15) 22) 20) COD (mg/L) (Site 14) COD (mg/L) (Site 15) COD (mg/L) (Site 22) COD (mg/L) (Site 20) COD Turbidity (NTU) (Site Turbidity (NTU) (Site Turbidity (NTU) (Site Turbidity (NTU) (Site BOD (mg/L) (Site 14) BOD (mg/L) (Site 15) BOD (mg/L) (Site 22) BOD (mg/L) (Site 20) BOD

Figure 5: Range and mean values for untreated shower water - All sites (Turbidity, COD, BOD).

400 350 300 250 Max 200 Min 150 100 Mean 50 0 COD (mg/L) (Site 25) COD (mg/L) (Site 14) COD (mg/L) (Site 15) COD (mg/L) (Site 22) COD (mg/L) (Site 20) COD BOD (mg/L) (Site 25) BOD (mg/L) (Site 14) BOD (mg/L) (Site 15) BOD (mg/L) (Site 22) BOD (mg/L) (Site 20) BOD

Turbidity(NTU) (Site 25) Turbidity(NTU) (Site 14) Turbidity(NTU) (Site 15) Turbidity(NTU) (Site 22) Turbidity(NTU) (Site 20)

Figure 6: Range, mean, and % reduction values for treated greywater - All sites (Turbidity, COD, BOD).

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Overall Compliance and Health Canada Standards

The greywater reuse systems performed poorly in terms of turbidity and BOD, meeting HCG requirements only 15.4% and 28.7% of the time respectively. Despite this, E.coli levels in 80.7% of the samples taken from all sites were below the detection limit of (<1 cfu/100mL). Furthermore, effluent samples from 90.1% (219 of 243) were below the maximum E.coli level (<200cfu/100mL). The remaining 10% of samples that failed to meet E.coli guidelines of HCG were largely localized at a few sites where the greywater systems were not being sufficiently chlorinated (16% or 43 of 264 samples had zero mg/L of free chlorine residual).

It is important to note that the free chlorine residual represents the concentration of chlorine that is still available for disinfection and is not same as the total chlorine level specified by the HCG. This explains why a high degree of disinfection was possible even with many samples having free chlorine concentrations below the 0.5mg/L level (45% or 120 of 264). Although the systems seemingly performed poorly according to several HCG criteria (turbidity and BOD), the most important health-related criterion - E.coli concentrations - was met regularly at most sites.

The results indicate that new homes performed better than retrofitted homes. This result is, however, somewhat deceiving as new homes tended to use a greater volume of municipal water to ‘top up’ their greywater reuse systems, thus improving greywater quality by diluting it with potable water.

Table 5: Overall compliance with Health Canada Guidelines

Parameter Guideline Total Number of Number of Percentage of Amount Number of Samples within Samples outside Samples within Samples Guideline Limit Guideline Limit limit (%) BOD 20 mg/L 237 167 70 29.5% COD 20 mg/L 225 205 20 8.9% 200 E. Coli CFU/mL 247 24 223 90.3% Turbidity 5 NTU 274 232 42 15.3% Free Chlorine Residual 0.5 mg/L 265 164 101 38.1%

Potable Water Fed vs. Greywater Fed Toilets

The University of Guelph not only examined raw shower water and treated greywater but also took water samples from the toilet bowls of fixtures supplied by potable water (Table 6). The results suggest that even frequently cleaned potable water-fed toilets (Toilets A and B) can have high average concentrations of fecal coliforms and very few samples that are fecal coliform free. In fact, even potable water taken from toilets can fail to comply with the current HCG requirements. Factors affecting results include chlorine residual, user’s hygiene, toilet cleaning practices, and cleaning products used.

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Regardless of whether a toilet is supplied by potable water or greywater, not surprisingly, indicator microorganisms can be found in relatively large numbers. Counter intuitively, greywater sampled from toilets at Sites 25, 14, and 15 was actually “cleaner” (from a fecal contamination perspective) than potable water Toilets A and B. This can possibly be attributed to the regular dosing of high concentrations of chlorine within treated greywater that the toilets at these sites received after each flush. As well, each greywater-fed toilet had lower average fecal coliform counts than the irregularly cleaned Toilet A (potable water-fed).

Table 6: Fecal coliform comparison from different toilets

Potable Water Toilets Greywater Fed Toilets A B Site 25 Site 14 Site 15 Site 22 Site 20 % of results Fecal 0% 50% 77% 80% 60% 25% 0% <1 cfu/100mL coliforms Geometric present mean 998 11 2 3 17 69 770 in toilet (cfu/100mL) bowl # of Samples 6 6 9 5 5 16 4 Total Chlorine (mg/L) 0.22 0.33 2.16 2.62 3.53 1.90 0.24 once/3 Not Every few cleaned 1- Toilet Cleaning weekly weekly months available months weekly 2/week

Dilution of Greywater Affecting Water Quality Results

The volume of municipal water used to top up a greywater system will impact the effluent quality of treated greywater. At some sites the volume of municipal water supplied to the greywater system actually exceeded the shower water volume. For example, 83% of water used to flush toilets at Home 23 was from municipal sources, which resulted in a low average greywater turbidity of 9.6 NTU (Table 7).

Table 7: Examples of toilet water composition compared with turbidity

Water Sources Filling Greywater Reuse System Site Shower Water Municipal Top Up Potable water Use for Average (L/capita/day) (L/capita/day) Toilet Flushing (%) Turbidity (NTU) Home 23 4.7 23.3 83% 9.6 Home 8 9.5 9.3 49.6% 25.8 Home 5 20.8 6.3 23% 33.3

Importance of Regular System Maintenance

To ensure that the greywater reuse systems are performing optimally, regular maintenance must be conducted by the users. This maintenance includes:

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x Ensuring that chlorine pucks are always present in the system. Sufficient chlorine residual reduces the presence of E.coli and other microorganisms in the treated greywater; and, x Regular filter cleaning prevents clogging which ensures that all the shower water is available for reuse. Filter cleaning also helps prevent bio-film growth and fouling of the filter components.

Systems which maintained a sufficiently high concentration of free chlorine (>0.5 mg/L) produced an effluent which had E.coli enumerations below 200 cfu/100mL (graph of results included in the report in Appendix C. However, as explained previously, a high degree of disinfection was possible even with many samples having free chlorine residual concentrations between 0 and 0.5mg/L (45%, 120 of 264).

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5.0 Social Feedback Monitoring & Acceptance

5.1 Approach Understanding social acceptance is of particular importance for fostering desired environmental conservation change. The role of social acceptance is integral to understanding how the field test is perceived by the public and its users. Research of social acceptance sheds light on the need for homeowner support with grey water reuse systems. Of particular importance, is greywater system users willingness and acceptance to complete required maintenance as it is directly linked to the success of system operations and associated water savings.

Project feedback attained through qualitative methods, was used to assist in understanding the social acceptance and opinions of greywater system owners and the general public. Qualitative research methods included ongoing homeowner surveys, focus groups, and homeowner interviews. Quantitative research included a web-based survey available to the general to the public.

5.2 Quantitative Homeowner Surveys As part of the Field Study, a participant feedback survey was sent out by the City to twenty five participants. Information was collected regarding the users’ knowledge of their system, maintenance regime, system performance, and satisfaction level. Survey participants included three homes which were gifted a GRWS with the purchase of their home. The remaining eight systems were involved in a home retrofit. The questions were related to system performance and specific difficulties that were experienced. Some questions allowed the users e to provide more than one response.

The purpose of the ongoing surveys was to assist in showing progression of homeowner understanding and satisfaction. They also served to provide insight on increased understanding of system functionality and gauge homeowner maintenance issues experienced with the system. Distribution of surveys occurred at four, eight, twelve, and twenty-four months after installation and included questions pertaining to knowledge of system, satisfaction level, maintenance regime, type of soap products used, system performance, and bathing schedules and habits.

Some of the difficulties with the GWRS that were raised included: difficulties with motor controls, system operating too often and/or too noisily, overflow and flooding issues, and difficulty with access to the tank and/or filter. The frequency of filter cleaning was mentioned as a problem for some users, while others were able to adapt to this new responsibility. Most users that were interviewed indicated that the system requires a lot of diligence in cleaning. Some went as far to say that when the routine of the cleaning is established, the system functions quite well. Of those interviewed, five users indicated that they clean their filters weekly, and 5 users cleaned their filters monthly.

Survey result indicated that the majority of participants rated the performance of their system as “good” and overall resident satisfaction as determined from resident feedback surveys taken 12 months after ownership is quite high, as evident in Appendix F. At the 24 month survey, overall resident satisfaction was still “good” but there were fewer responses in the “excellent” category than on the 12 month survey. The most common issues cited were mechanical failures, development of biofilm in the toilet tank or bowl, and aesthetics City of Guelph Residential Greywater Field Test 31 Final Report

(chlorine or unpleasant smell and water murkiness). The frequency of filter cleaning was also mentioned as a problem for some users. A pie chart of these dissatisfaction reasons collected at the one year survey is outlined in Appendix F (Figure 20).These reasons for lack of satisfaction repeated themselves consistently throughout the other research methods. A summary of these surveys are available in Appendix F (Pilot Program Participant Feedback Surveys) of this report.

5.3 Focus Groups As per the field test, 3 focus groups were conducted in October 2010 by Metroline Research Group, to seek information from three specific audiences. As per the focus groups, audiences were divided by experience with the system as well as members of the general public. The 3 groups included: new program participants that had the system for 0-6 months, and existing program participants that had the system for longer than six months as well as members of the general public. The purpose of the research was to gather feedback on homeowner experiences with and perceptions of their greywater systems, including their participation in the Field Test, and to identify potential barriers to widespread greywater system use.

General Public

Insights from the Metroline Research Group demonstrated that members of the general public tended to have minimal awareness of greywater technology. This group also found the term “greywater” could prove to be excluding, due to its “ick factor”, and were not certain that the technology applied to their specific lifestyles. Return on investment was identified a key decision factor and research demonstrated that they wanted a payback period of less than 10 years if they were to partake in a greywater reuse program.

Program Participants

Results received as part of focus group for those possessing the technologies featured notable differing opinions from that of the general public. The existing participants group suggested that both initial and ongoing engagement and education on the systems are imperative to system success. This suggestion was also backed up by findings from the surveys and the interviews. One interesting indicator was the difference in drivers for uptake of greywater systems between existing participants and the general public. Many existing participants noted their personal conservation ideals/belief as their driver for participation, and seemed less motivated by return on investment. Conversely, members of the general public appreciated the environmental benefits of the system but were primarily driven by the financial benefit introduced by such systems, with a payback on investment period required to be 10 years or less to strongly consider installing such technologies.

Separately, when looking to sub groups of the existing technologies users (i.e. those who retrofitted their home versus those who purchased a home within which the system gifted) some interesting trends emerged. When looking to home retrofit, many participants had identified themselves as environmentally conscious individuals and noted they were attracted to the greywater system based on their “green” attitude. This group as advised that they actively researched technology alternatives and had a high level of awareness of City of Guelph Residential Greywater Field Test 32 Final Report

technologies in advance of their participation in the Field Test. By comparison, new homeowners did not generally share this attitude and were most concerned with the financial elements of the program. Furthermore, this group admitted a lesser level of technology awareness prior to installation in their home and as a result shared a higher level of dissatisfaction with the system and related maintenance requirements.

Overall, the focus group results provided detailed qualitative information and demonstrated that there is support for greywater systems. However, due to limited cost effectiveness at this time, there is limited audience uptake. One important finding was that both new and existing program participants indicated that they have limited safety concerns and that health concerns regarding water quality were generally a non- issue. For more information, the full report from Metroline is available in Appendix F of this report.

5.4 Stakeholder Interviews Qualitative homeowner and homebuilder interviews were conducted by representatives of the University of Guelph. This detailed research provided a deeper understanding of resident satisfaction. This research reaffirmed that the need for direct homeowner support with their systems, and diligence in completing their maintenance program was directly linked to successful system operation and subsequent water savings.

During interviews, participants expressed that their main issues were related to system maintenance, cost, and aesthetics. Member’s attempts to balance the technical maintenance generated a great deal of ambivalence toward their participation in the project and auxiliary water systems in general. Some felt that being environmentally responsible outweighs savings while others expressed the need to at least receive a return on their investment. There were also issues surrounding aesthetic appeal relating to bio-film in the toilet, and to the colour and smell of the greywater. These issues were at the forefront of discussions, especially when friends and family were visiting. However, as previously noted, health concerns were not a major deterrent to environmental engagement.

The interviews also confirmed that while the participants installing a greywater system in new homes were initially excited to receive the technology as an “add on” to their home purchase, they later came to perceive some downfalls related to their system and their satisfaction level decreased as a result. The result of these consultations and supporting discussion pertaining to the interviews are included within Appendix F of this report.

5.5 Qualitative Web-based Surveys Quantitative web-based surveys were available from the City’s webpage and responses from residents within the Guelph city limits were encouraged. This survey ran in January 2011 for approximately 4 weeks with a total of 61 responses. While the insight provided by the survey is valuable and adds to the findings of the other research methods established, unfortunately the total number of responses received did not meet the participation threshold to ensure statistical significance on a local level.

Key findings of this research include the following:

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x This research found that the term “greywater” was not publically appealing. x Overall, 94% of people surveyed indicated that they would consider installing a greywater system. However it appears that the initial cost and water savings were the main influencers to installing a greywater system in the home. x Systems that are not cost effective or that don’t provide a reasonable payback period and return on investment would only appeal to a small percentage of homeowners. x Financial rebates/incentives were cited as one of the most important things the City can do to encourage participation in the program.

For more information on this survey, a complete summary of survey results are included in Appendix F (Table 19 to Table 22) of this report.

5.6 Social Feedback Recommendations Program participants who actively signed up for the program are clearly more engaged. These people tend to be more environmentally conscious, “green” homeowners. This group indicated that they were the most satisfied with the system, claimed better success, and were more driven to maintain their system.

Participants through surveys, interviews and focus groups voiced some concerns about the system itself.

Aesthetic Issues

Many struggled with the aesthetic issue of getting the toilet bowl water to an “acceptable” appearance level. They wanted a more “hands off” approach and found the system filter to be problematic. Some even had the perception that the system manufacturer was still proving the system and was “working out the bugs” using this program as a trial test. Many found that supplies, such as chlorine pucks, are not readily available and price was an issue. They seem to have a perception that they want clean clear drinking water quality water for the toilet.

Maintenance Issues

Maintenance concerns and mechanical problems were prominent issues for system function. Users indicated that they wanted a more “hands off” approach that was less time consuming. People were generally not interested in cleaning their own filters and replacing chlorine pucks. They often found the filter to be problematic. If it was not cleaned regularly it would clog with hair/debris/soap scum and then the system would bypass the greywater and automatically switch to the municipal system. Some users even had the perception that the manufacturer of the system was still proving the system and working out the “bugs” using this program as a trial test. Many found supplies, such as chlorine pucks, were not readily available and price was consistently an issue.

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Communication Improvements

There are avenues for improvement regarding communication and setting appropriate expectations of the greywater system for the homeowner. Program participants wished they had a better sense of their role and responsibility during the installation process. They indicated a need for better training or education when the system is first installed, including some written examples and instructions. They wanted more direction on brands or types of soap/shampoo that will work best in the system. Another recommendation by the homeowners was a more clear indication of who to call when there are questions or problems with the system. They wanted some guidance on whether results from the testing process are acceptable, and how to improve them.

Cost of System

While there is an interest in the program by Guelph residents, there are a number of concerns and barriers to installing a system. The largest barrier is cost of the system and return on investment. Without a good return on investment, potentially interested residents seem to want to wait until either water rates increase or the system payback increases.

Beyond the barriers and concerns is the level of satisfaction with the installation of the system. Overall, however, the participants who received the greywater system through a new home purchase had lower levels of satisfaction but those who chose to install the system are pleased with their participation and their system.

Health Concerns

Both potential and existing program participants expressed that they were not concerned about health and safety issues as being a concern regarding water quality from the system. As represented consistently in all of the social research findings, health concerns were not a major deterrent to environmental engagement.

Incentive Availability

The research indicates that the municipal rebate appears to be a major financial incentive to encouraging potential greywater users to participate in the program and uptake this technology retrofit. The rebate increases the return on investment and payback period for users, making the system more appealing financially as a result.

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6.0 Financial Analysis

6.1 Consumer Uptake of Demand Management Programming The success of demand management programming is dependent on the presence of consumer uptake and participation stemming from a recognized tangible benefit amongst target audiences. With this in mind, primary elements influencing consumer participation in programming include:

x Creation of heightened financial benefit to participants; x Desired/Improved performance than existing product/process; x Increased contributions to home/environmental aesthetics; x Alignment of product with personal ethics/beliefs, and; x Shifts in social norms and other market pressures.

To explore creation of financial benefits specifically, the introduction of a tangible short-term benefit is a key lever influencing the uptake of technology retrofit based demand management programs. With this in mind, to facilitate the uptake of desired home water efficiency technology retrofits and associated payback on investment to the homeowner many municipalities offer rebate programs through which financial incentives are provided towards the replacement of inefficient home technologies with approved efficient alternatives. These incentive approaches have been very successful for municipalities aiming to increase uptake of demand management programs and have helped to defer or avoid significant community water/wastewater capital investments as a result.

In alignment with benefit to the municipality, the program participant also enjoys reduced utility bills as a result of the efficient technology installation and a shorter payback on investment (POI) for the technology stemming from the incentive received. Although personal financial thresholds for payback on investment may vary based on the level of disposable household income, the general consumer expectation is that resource use efficiencies introduced by water use technology improvements will recoup the cost of the technology investment within 3-5 years and introduce a suitable level of continued financial benefit to the homeowner well in advance of the anticipated life cycle of the given technology. Focus groups with members of the general public completed as part of the Field Test had demonstrated an acceptable POI period of no more than 10 years for these technologies amongst residents surveyed. Furthermore, it was the expectation of residents surveyed that these systems should introduce a continued tangible financial benefit to the homeowners from the point of installation of such systems.

6.2 Payback on Investment The Payback on investment (POI) period is a common economic measure used to plan and prioritize investments. Specifically, the POI is used to determine the period of time for an investment to recover its initial startup costs. In defining POI it is essential that both initial and ongoing operational and maintenance costs be taken into account to represent the true costs of the technology and return on investment. With this in mind, a series of detailed financial models were developed to analyze greywater reuse system POI to homeowners living in newly constructed and existing housing as part of the Field Test. For reference further explanation of these scenarios is provided below: City of Guelph Residential Greywater Field Test 36 Final Report

x Scenario 1: Payback on Investment with 5% annual increase in water/wastewater user rates and annual premise isolation device testing requirement;

x Scenario 2: Payback on Investment with 5% annual increase in water/wastewater user rates and no annual premise isolation device testing requirement;

x Scenario 3: Payback on Investment with 5% annual increase in water/wastewater user rates and amended premise isolation device testing requirement (5 year frequency);

x Scenario 4: Payback on Investment with 10% annual increase in water/wastewater user rates and annual premise isolation device testing requirement;

x Scenario 5: Payback on Investment with 10% annual increase in water/wastewater user rates and no annual premise isolation device testing requirement, and;

x Scenario 6: Payback on Investment with 10% annual increase in water/wastewater user rates and amended premise isolation device testing requirement (5 year frequency)

As indicated above, key variables in each scenario included proposed annual increases to water/wastewater user rates over time (5 or 10% annually), amendments to the annual premise isolation device testing requirements for homes possessing greywater systems (a cost of approximately $150/year), and toilet technology differences in new and existing homes (stemming from Ontario building code improvements and subsequent retrofits). Furthermore, these scenarios also assumed the presence of one-time City incentive to homeowners installing such systems, annual general operational and maintenance costs (chlorine puck replacements, electricity needs to run the system), and uniform volumetric annual water savings over the anticipated life of the system (20 years). Included below is a summary of these variables and respective POI summaries for reference:

Table 8: New Home POI Scenario Variables:

Item Annual Value Units New Homes Existing Homes Total Annual Water Savings from GWR System 18.2 24.7 m3/yr Installation 2012 Combined Water/Wastewater User Rate $ 2.71 $ 2.71 /m3 Annual Utility Savings per Household $ 50 $ 67 System Installation Cost $ 3,500 $ 3,500 Annual Backflow Prevention Device Testing Cost $ 150 $ 150 /yr Annual O&M Cost for System (Chlorine/Electricity) $ 55 $ 55 /yr Incentive from City for System Install $ 1,500 $ 1,500

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Payback Duration per Scenario with Incentive

60 56

50 47

40 36 32 31 29 30 27 26 New Homes 23 21 18 20 Exisitng Homes 20

Number of Years until Number Payback 10

0 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Scenario 6 Scenario Option

Figure 7: New and Existing Homes Payback and Investment Scenario Summary

Through the modeling of POI for newly constructed homes it is important to note the absence of a payback of investment during the desired payback period (10 years) defined through social research and the intended life cycle of the water reuse system (20 years) within all modeled scenarios. This is largely due to the reduced annual water savings (in comparison to the existing homes) associated with the new construction requirement for efficient toilet fixtures, thus limiting the total use of treated greywater per flush in the home.

In looking to existing home based installations, modeled payback on investment through all scenarios once again failed to achieve the desired payback period resulting from social research through the field test (10 years). However, through the modeling of scenarios # 5 & 6, the payback on investment period for systems installed in existing homes did take place prior to anticipated life cycle of the greywater systems (20 years). Although a positive result, it is important to note that these scenarios are dependent on continued aggressive annual increases in water/wastewater utility rates (10% per year) as well as significant municipal policy changes related to premise isolation testing requirements for homes possessing such systems. In scenario #4 specifically, the requirement for premise isolation testing was removed completely, resulting in a savings of $150/year to the homeowner. However, with acknowledgement to the considerable risk associated with this policy revision and a water utilities obligation to mitigate sources of risk in protecting public health through service delivery, it is not anticipated that such approaches would be supported to promote POI to homeowners. Conversely, when looking to the POI of scenario #6 in existing homes (19.6 years) it is more feasible that a lesser testing frequency for premise devices may be considered by a utility provided that provisions for home greywater system installation are designed to achieve redundancy in premise and/or

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zone isolation in the home (such as air gaps for potable water system top-up in addition to a premise isolation device) to achieve a desired level of water source protection. Although the evaluation of this risk versus benefit would have to be conducted on a utility by utility basis, this scenario is once again predicated on aggressive annual increases in water/wastewater utility rates (10%) to achieve a payback on investment essentially equal to the useful life of the system.

It should be noted that the modeling of all above scenarios take into account financial savings stemming from incentives offered towards greywater system installation ($1500 per system) in alignment with the approach undertaken during the field test. With this in mind, it is anticipated that significantly longer payback periods would be expected by homeowners privately installing such systems that do not receive any incentives.

6.3 Cost Effectiveness of Municipal Water Demand Management Programming Servicing capacity reclaimed through water conservation and efficiency is the most cost effective source of new water supply and wastewater treatment capacity. In alignment with this statement, it is common practice that through the development of municipal water efficiency master plans that the current cost of constructing infrastructure to provide one additional litre of water supply and wastewater treatment becomes the financial upset limit under which potential water conservation programs would be deemed as cost effective. For example, through the development of the City of Guelph 2009 Water Conservation and Efficiency Strategy the financial threshold for water conservation programming was deemed to be $4.00 per litre of average day capacity reclaimed, based on review of the current cost to construct 1 litre of average day supply for new water supply and wastewater treatment capacity, as defined through the City’s 2006 Water Supply Master Plan and 2009 Wastewater Treatment Master Plan respectively.

To allow for the cost comparison of new servicing capacity construction to reclaimed capacity sources it is necessary that the full cost of offering water demand management programs be defined. These costs may include financial incentives but will also account for other costs associated with services such as staff administration, project management, program marketing, and monitoring. With reference to these costs, the below table provides an overview of the cost per cubic meter of average day servicing capacity reclaimed through common single family residential rebate programming offered by Guelph as taken from Appendix I of the City’s Water Conservation and Efficiency Strategy (RMSi 2009):

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Table 9: Municipal Rebate Programs – Cost of Reclaimed Capacity

Program Rebate Provided Value of Capacity Reclaimed ($ per participant) ($/L*avg day capacity) HET Toilet Rebate Program – $75 $2100 Single Family Res Efficient Clothes Washer $100 $1900 Rebate Program – Single Family Res Efficient Humidifier $75 $2060 Waterless Floor Drain $60 $2090

In looking to the cost effectiveness of home greywater reuse system based demand management programming it is necessary that two key variables be considered; daily water savings and incentive amount. Through monitoring of household water demands, reductions in average household water daily savings of 49.8 litres per day and 67.8 litres per day were observed during the Field Test amongst new home and home retrofit installations, respectively. In looking to incentive amount, a one-time incentive of $1500 was selected for purposes of the Field Test through consultation with local stakeholders as an appropriate incentive to facilitate the desired installation of such systems by increasing technology affordability to homeowners. In merging these sources of information, the cost per litre of average day capacity reclaimed as a result of greywater system installations in new and existing homes would be $30.12 per litre and $22.10 per litre, respectively. This is significantly more expensive the City’s current conservation program pricing threshold of $4.00/litre as well as that of currently identified construct costs for new infrastructure to create water and wastewater servicing capacity within the City, possessing a total maximum construction cost $8.16 per litre of water/wastewater capacity gained. With this in mind, it is recommended that the current incentive amounts offered as part of subsequent programming be reduced to more accurately reflect the value of water/wastewater capacity reclaimed by the City.

With reference to this analysis, it is important to note that financial thresholds for municipal conservation programming will drastically vary on a jurisdiction by jurisdiction basis and be subject to increases stemming from the overall complexity of establishing new sources of water supply and wastewater treatment as well as the impacts of water scarcity. With this in mind, it is recommended that communities contemplating such programs evaluate affordability and related financial thresholds in the context of their unique water supply and wastewater treatment systems.

6.4 Preliminary Lifecycle Assessment (PLCA)

For purposes of the Field Test a Preliminary Lifecycle Assessment was completed by the University Of Guelph School Of Engineering. The main goal of the PLCA was to determine the environmental performance of greywater reuse systems technologies (GWRS #1) compared to the baseline: treating wastewater solely at the wastewater treatment plant, or business as usual. The environmental performance was analyzed with the following impact categories; water use, climate change (greenhouse gas emissions, GHG), electricity, and

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resource use (treatment chemical use). A consequential PLCA was conducted on a greywater reuse system. For reference the complete PLCA is available within Appendix D of this report.

Results of the PLCA suggest that GWRS appear to be less sustainable than the conventional centralized treatment approach. However, conserving water does have environmental benefits that were not considered in this calculation. By using a GWRS and through water conservation, water is left in the natural water cycle providing important environmental benefits and services. A more detailed and rigorous life cycle assessment is needed to better understand the environmental impacts of GWRS compared with conventional water and wastewater management approaches.

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7.0 Backflow Prevention Device Assessment

7.1 Approach To ensure the municipal water supply was protected from potential contamination events, backflow prevention devices were installed on participating homes. While the CSA’s Manual for the Selection and Installation of Backflow Preventers (B64.10) currently allows non-testable backflow preventers to be installed in homes with greywater systems, the City’s by-law requires all premise isolation devices to be testable and that these devices be tested on an annual basis (approximate cost of annual testing is $150).

For research purposes, 14 of the participating homes were fitted with a Double Check Valve Assembly (testable device) and 11 were fitted with Dual Check Valves (non-testable device). These devices were installed at no cost to participating homeowners with annual device testing completed by representatives of the City’s Building Services Department. Device testing was completed in the field at the point of original system installation and at an annual frequency thereafter. All of the devices were tested in the field through use of a differential pressure gauge, with the same set of differential pressure gauges used for all homes. This differential pressure gauge was also calibrated on an annual basis in order to ensure accuracy.

7.2 Devices in Field Both Double Check Valve Assemblies (40-100 series) (DCVA) and Dual Checks (40-300 series) (DuC) are designed with two normally closed check valves that open when water flows in the “normal” direction and close when water flows in the opposite direction. These devices will maintain premise isolation even if one of the check valves fail. While the B64.10 classifies a device with only one working check valve as a “failed device”, during this pilot project this condition was identified as only a “partial failure”.

All piping used to convey non- potable water in this pilot project was clearly marked “Non Potable” using either labels or by the use of purple piping. There were no direct connections of between the potable and non-potable water systems in any home. Make-up water to the greywater tanks was achieved by means of an air gap.

Each backflow prevention device was tested at installation and then annually thereafter. There appears to be little difference between the two types of devices tested as part of this pilot project regarding their effectiveness to deliver an acceptable level of premise isolation. To date, none of the devices completely failed, however, some of the devices did experience failure of a single check valve.

7.3 Recommendations 1. Amend the City’s backflow by-law to allow non-testable backflow preventers to be used for properties (residential/non-residential) with a minor hazard classification where no actual cross connections exist. This will eliminate the associated costs for annual device testing while still maintaining public safety.

2. Utilize City’s Cross Connection Control Program to ensure that the current level of protection for the public water system remains at an acceptable level.

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8.0 Municipal Management Framework

8.1 Background A key barrier to the uptake of decentralized water reuse systems has been the lack uniform frameworks to manage the installation, maintenance, and ongoing operation of such systems on a jurisdiction by jurisdiction basis. With reference to this challenge, it is essential that communities contemplating wide spread implementation of such technologies individually evaluate their local community circumstances to determine the appropriate management framework through which centralized water reuse may be supported while also reducing potential liability should issues arise.

In breaching this barrier, the United States Environmental Protection Agency’s Handbook for Managing Onsite and Clustered (Decentralized) Wastewater Treatment Systems (EPA No. 832-B-05-001, December 2005), which provides direction for establishing such frameworks, states that “each community must carefully evaluate its situation and management needs to develop a program that is supported by residents, protects human health and the environment, and allows the community to grow and prosper in a sustainable fashion consistent with land use plans and needs.” In best managing these unique elements, the Handbook further recommends that each level of government “develop a well thought out strategy that considers a number of factors, including design options, site conditions, operational and maintenance requirements, periodic inspections, monitoring and financial support.” Similarly, the Handbook also stresses that a central component of such strategies be the introduction of necessary legal authority to implement such requirements. Such Legal authority for centralized water reuse systems may include (but are not limited to):

x Issuing System Operating Permits; x Requiring System Maintenance Contracts; x Setting System Maintenance, Repair and Replacement and Maintenance Schedules; x Mandatory System Inspections, and; x Monetary Fines for Non-Compliance with above.

8.2 Management Framework Development In beginning to define a management framework for Guelph, a staff stakeholder workshop was held on February 8, 2012. The workshop served as an initial opportunity for the project team to share results of the Field Test with a wide range of internal City stakeholders and gain stakeholder insights/feedback with respect to key barriers and opportunities related to current technologies.

Stakeholder representation from various groups and divisions within the City were invited with representatives from Building Services, Corporate Communications, Corporate Energy Services, Legal Services, Water Services and Wastewater Services participating in the actual workshop.

Information attained as a result of this workshop was utilized by the Greywater Field Test project team to demonstrate a process to through which creation of potential management framework could be undertaken with hopes that this process may form an example for other Canadian Municipalities considering the application of such technologies in their respective jurisdictions.

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For purposes of this workshop Guelph had retained the professional services of staff from a local office of AECOM to assist with facilitation of the workshop, guide City staff and solicit feedback regarding the probability and consequence of potential known issues associated with residential grey water reuse from their individual viewpoints as well as documentation of workshop findings within a final summary report. For reference, this complete report form this session is included in Appendix E.

It is to be noted that based on the original scope of the Guelph Greywater Field Test the Management Framework Workshop included only the participation of Guelph staff stakeholders with discussion informed by information attained via community stakeholder feedback received during through other elements of the Field Test. With this in mind, it is recommended that greater community consultation be conducted by other jurisdictions undertaking such works to best define the opportunities and challenges amongst all stakeholders.

8.3 City of Guelph Greywater Field Test Management Frameworks With reference to the City of Guelph Greywater Field Test it is important to acknowledge the complement of management frameworks employed by the City as part of implementation and ongoing study as part of the Field Test. These frameworks included the formation of new policy guidelines on a local basis (such as system eligibility standards) but also encompassed the use of existing codes and standards from local, provincial, and federal government entities and respective industry associations. Included below is an overview of these individual frameworks for reference:

x City of Guelph Backflow Prevention Bylaw - bylaw defines requirement for the installation of a premise isolation device, and type of respective device, based on the installation and ongoing presence of an auxiliary water system. Bylaw also requires that device be tested on an annual basis by a qualified professional to ensure proper working order and sets value of monetary fines should compliance with such requirements not be met by the owner of the premise.

x Customer Support – throughout duration of field test participants had the ability to contact City staff, respective home builders, and product suppliers to assist with questions regarding the system and/or any site based issues experienced. Further to support network, each system was also inspected by a product representative following a prolonged period of operation to assess system performance, repair potential deficiencies, as well as to provide a refresher to homeowners on system maintenance requirements and offer instruction on basic troubleshooting relating to common system field issues.

x General System Education – Educational information was provided to all homeowners after system was installed outlining general function of system and required maintenance duties/frequencies. Greywater reuse system product overview workshops were also held with product supplier, local home builder representatives, and plumbing contractors to define system installation, operation, and maintenance requirements.

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x Ongoing System Sampling and Performance Reporting – sampling of household treated greywater was completed on monthly basis by City staff. Through onsite sampling, homeowners possessed ability to ask ongoing questions of staff regarding system performance and related issues experienced. Furthermore, through ongoing site visits, City staff would alert homeowners to issues detected via onsite water quality sampling (such as insufficient chlorine residuals) and provide advice towards issue remediation.

x System Eligibility Standards – system design and installations standards defined through consultation with City departments and research current codes and standards, including Ontario Building Code, CSA Standard B128.1/2 and the Health Canada Guidelines for Domestic Water Reuse (2010).

x System Installation by Competent Individuals – to ensure eligibility for incentive, systems had to be installed by professional plumbing contractor.

x System Installation-based Permitting and Field Plumbing Inspections – requirement for homeowners installing such systems to attain a building permit and supporting field inspections following contractor installation of system.

8.4 Risk Management In working to define municipal management, the Staff-stakeholder workshop included a facilitated risk management exercise, based in ISO Standard 31000, to solicit feedback from staff on perceived issues and related opportunities to mitigate such challenges.

The risk assessment conducted during the workshop considered only risks, causes, and impacts from Guelph’s perspective, and not from the side of the customer. In general, the assessment also examined greywater reuse on a small scale similar to the Field Test. As such, it is recommended that the risks, causes, and impacts should be re-evaluated if large-scale implementation is being considered.

The following identified risks were reviewed and discussed during the workshop:

1. Operational requirements and capacity planning 2. Potential source contamination of water system 3. Education of homeowners 4. Availability of Contractor / manufacturer to provide continuous support of greywater reuse systems 5. Existence of licensing, permitting, and product performance standards 6. Not implementing greywater re-use in the City 7. Being a leader (there are no established Canadian precedents)

For each of the risks above, the workshop participants discussed causes and impacts as summarized in the tables below. For the high probability / consequence of failure scenarios, mitigating measures were also discussed. The risk rating was established for both the current state and under a scenario of an expanded

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program (based on hundreds or thousands of installations). Included in the tables below (Table 10 to Table 16) is a summary of staff stakeholder feedback attained through the evaluation of each risk:

Table 10: Risk Associated with Operational Requirements and Capacity Planning

RISK: Operational Requirements and Capacity Planning Causes: Impacts to City: x Requirement to supply more water due to x Service interruption system failure / homeowner removal of system x Requirement to supply more water x Reduction to planned servicing capacity to area x Increased sanitary system flushing knowing systems create demand offset x Failure to achieve desired targets for potable x Reduced wastewater conveyance flows, due to water demand reduction reduction in demands Risk Rating (Pilot): Risk Rating (Expanded Program) x Low Probability of Failure x Medium Probability of Failure x Low Consequence of Failure x Medium Consequence of Failure Risk Mitigation: x Increase drainage slope design x Line sewers x Look to new communal system or installation in new subdivision so you can control slopes and design standards Table 11: Risk Associated with Potential Source Contamination of Water System

RISK: Potential Source Contamination of Water System Causes: Impacts to City: x Wrongful cross connection (potable / non-potable x Impact to water quality in home resulting in system) within home impacts to the City’s reputation x Failure of backflow prevention device (testable) x Removal of system in home x Failure of backflow prevention device (non- x Decreased desire for large scale implementation testable) x Concern with health and safety impacts to x Reduced wastewater effluent quality (High BOD, customer COD, Chlorine Residual) x Loss of City and program reputation x Increased presence of mould foundation (toilet tank / greywater system) x Attempting to install the device by homeowner – improperly x Home changeover / point of sale Risk Rating (Pilot): Risk Rating (Expanded Program): x Low Probability of Failure x Medium Probability of Failure x High Consequence of Failure x High Consequence of Failure Risk Mitigation: x Homeowner Education about internal plumbing and maintenance requirements of the system x Increased testing in system x Development and documentation of proper maintenance procedures (end user training programs) x Continue to meet with homeowners (i.e. re-education through backflow inspection by the City during the five year program, by plumbing inspectors in the future) x Ongoing review and testing of systems that are installed x Improved Standards for installation and system upkeep x Testing of backflow prevention device on regular basis

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Table 12: Risk Associated with Education of Homeowners

RISK: Education of Homeowners Causes: Impacts to City: x No maintenance of system by homeowner x Increased water consumption. x Wrongful disposal of household hazardous waste x System removal, and loss of investment by the x Improper installation / modification of system by City homeowners x Impact to greywater re-use effectiveness x Extent of information on technologies received by x Impact to operational costs through pumping new home buyers from home builders potable water x Introduction of hazardous waste to reuse system and loss of reputation to the City as the program is endorsed by City. Although a contact is signed, there is concern for future owners. x General customer dissatisfaction with system (loss of reputation) x Loss of investment by the City x Resulting damage from improper installation or inspections x Homeowner uptake will suffer without the proper education and knowledge Risk Rating (Pilot): Risk Rating (Expanded Program): x High Probability of Failure x High Probability of Failure x Low Consequence of Failure x High Consequence of Failure Risk Mitigation: x Homeowner education x More/enhanced education materials x More timely education (i.e. In the case of the new builds) x Education of those supplying the systems (builders) x City (water efficiency) ownership with support from other departments x Development of proper maintenance procedures x Up front capital and operating costs, with tailored educational material from what was learned through pilot project x Continue to meet with homeowners (i.e. re-education through backflow inspection by the City during the five year program, by plumbing inspectors in the future?) x Consider modifying the agreement such that the systems are not removed, or are reclaimed by the City if they are removed x Develop rules governing maintenance, home sales x There could be more regulation of the program by the City. (will come at a financial cost for enforcement at City, and may also deter residents from participating) x Consistent communication from the City x Phased incentive structure, for example if customer complies; the second phase of the grant is issued, when proper operation and maintenance is demonstrated x Create incentive for developers for taking greater ownership for system performance x Require notice of system decommissioning

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Table 13: Risk Associated with Availability of Contractor / Manufacturer to Provide Continuous Support of Greywater Reuse Systems

RISK: Availability of Contractor / Manufacturer to Provide Continuous Support of Greywater Reuse Systems Causes: Impacts to City: x System repair by homeowner in absence of x Impact to City’s Reputation support x Removal of System x Lack of formal contractor certification program in Canada x Lack of local manufacture representatives to conduct repairs/ education x Warranty Issues Risk Rating (Pilot): Risk Rating (Expanded Program): x High Probability of Failure x High Probability of Failure x Low Consequence of Failure x High Consequence of Failure Risk Mitigation: x Lobbying for contractor education programs to create larger support base in Canada (Green Plumbers) x Certification for equipment and installation x Require notice if a backflow device is removed x City look to invest /own companies that supply and install products (trend occurring in Europe). Rent systems out to people like a water heater program – establish terms of rental

Table 14: Risk Associated with Lack of Licensing, Permitting and Product Performance Standards

RISK: Existence of Licensing, Permitting and Product Performance Standards

Causes: Impacts to City: x Illegal system installation x Contamination within home x Inability for building officials to enforce CSA x System decommission, or failure standards x Customer dissatisfaction with program x Lack of system owner licensing process x Lack of experience in installation x Lack of experience in Inspector training x Lack of experience in regulation side Risk Rating (Pilot): Risk Rating (Expanded Program): x High Probability of Failure x High Probability of Failure x High Consequence of Failure x High Consequence of Failure Risk Mitigation: x Control through installation through grant program x CSA Standard Development (wait until implementation of CSA B128.3 testing program/available certified technology). x City could lobby ministry of housing to include CSA B128 standards as part of base building code – currently no reference standard or tools for enforcement for initial installation although OBC contains direction on backflow requirements (i.e. no certification for installation).

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Table 15: Risk Associated with Not Implementing Greywater Re-use in the City

RISK: Not Implementing Greywater Re-use in the City Causes: Impacts to City: x Risk of not implementing achieving water x Loss of Reputation conservation program targets. Inability to reach x Failure to meet long-term water conservation such targets may impacts to existing/future permit targets to take water for water supply sources. x Future regulatory compliance issues (Water Opportunities and Conservation Act) Risk Rating (Pilot): Risk Rating (Expanded Program): x High Consequence x High Consequence x Low Probability x Medium Probability

Table 16: Risk Associated with Being a Leader in Relation to No Established Canadian Precedents

RISK: Being a Leader in Relation to No Established Canadian Precedents Causes: Impacts to City: x No widespread uptake in City/Country x Lack of manufacture supplier support, increase costs x Impeding market x Loss of reputation by promoting technology x Higher implementation and management costs – market conditions drive costs x If no manufacture supplier support, increased liability, decreased reputation to City. Risk Rating: Risk Rating (Expanded Program): x High Probability x High Probability x High Consequence x High Consequence Risk Mitigation: x Continue to research and review industry practices including international programs and technologies x Solicit input from Canadian practitioners x Engage manufacturers, plumbing contractors and other agencies (consider WEAO, WEF, OWWA etc.)

8.5 Impact on Overall Risk Level of Expanded System Implementation In general, the level of risk based on the consequences and probability of failure will increase as the program and acceptance of greywater systems expands beyond the current 25 pilot installations.

For example, while City staff was able to interact on a “one on one” basis with the relatively few participants in the pilot project, this same level of interaction would not be possible for an expanded program including hundreds or thousands of greywater systems.

This in turn will put additional requirements to ensure that the recommended mitigation factors, tools and resources are in place within the City to allow for increased levels of inspection, communication, testing,

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education, and enforcement. Ultimately, as systems are implemented in wider areas of the City, the possible geographic areas and individual sources of contamination will also increase.

Some of this increased risk level will be mitigated as general consumer/household knowledge of the systems functionality and use increases and as greywater reuse systems become more commonly accepted.

In addition, one key issue is the lack of CSA Standards and Certification for the equipment and installation of systems. Similar to more widespread understanding of the systems by end users, as the manufacturing community expands development and distribution of greywater systems to the user community, research and development will also assist in developing technologies that are more user-friendly and less costly.

In general, it was suggested that currently certification and training and public education are thought be the biggest risks for the City moving forward with broader implementation of programs.

8.6 Management Framework Recommendations Through information attained through staff stakeholder consultation, the following actions are recommended to further enhance municipal management frameworks at the current scale of greywater reuse technology implementation:

1. Need for Increased Communication & Public Education: With system operation/performance contingent on the homeowner’s ability and willingness to complete ongoing system maintenance, it is recommended that introductory educational and promotional elements of water reuse programming accurately reflect all duties/requirements of system ownership. Although this approach may work to effectively limit some audiences from participating, the added transparency provided through introduction of these requirements would be expected to promote a more robust and prepared participant base. Beyond introductory program marketing, it is also recommended that early educational opportunities be introduced to familiarize participating homeowners with their water reuse system as well as system maintenance and common troubleshooting requirements. Furthermore, in sustaining benefits to all parties via system use, it is recommended that vehicles for continued communication with program participants be implemented to offer reminders to homeowners about regular maintenance, to share lessons learned from participant peers, and to increase awareness of support resources available amongst participant groups.

2. Participant Support Networks: In concert with homeowner educational requirements, it is also recommended that educational opportunities for local trades and contractors be developed to further the knowledge base and support network for program participants. An example of such educational opportunities would include the Green Plumbers Program, available in Australia and the United States of America, through which plumbing contractors may gain certification in water reuse system installation and servicing, amongst other environmental disciplines.

Separately, through defining technology eligibility standards for water reuse programming, it is recommended that consideration be given to the presence of necessary educational and customer support requirements through eligible technology selection. This may be limited to the presence of operational manuals and local-based customer service support representatives, but could be further

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defined to increase educational requirements to include instructional videos or other resources seen to best support the needs of program participants.

3. Operational Permitting/Contracts: In looking to legacy challenges around technology installation (such as home resale and technology management amongst new homeowners), staff/stakeholder consultation completed as part of this study offered some valuable suggestions with reference to system-based operational permitting which were not considered through initial implementation of the pilot. With this in mind, it is recommended that further evaluation of water reuse system operational permits be assessed in hope that the introduction of such controls would increase the level of information received regarding active systems on an ongoing basis as well as define the duty to disclose necessary operational requirements of system during events such as home resale and system decommissioning.

4. Technology Performance Testing and Certification: the Canadian Standards Association endorsed Standard B128.3 - Performance of Non-Potable Water Treatment Systems within the closing period of the Field Test. This Standard aims to evaluate and certify water reuse technologies (packaged plants) versus a series of common stresses/operational challenges confronted by such system in real world environments. With this standard recently approved, and certified testing facilities for such technologies still to be established, the presence of CSA B128.3 certified technologies is not anticipated in the short-term. However, in looking to the timing of the introduction of certified technologies, it is recommended that technology eligibility criteria for water reuse programming integrate this certification in the future to reinforce the use of robust technologies in the field.

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9.0 Executive Summary & Recommendations

Background

As one of Canada’s largest communities reliant solely on a finite groundwater source for its drinking water needs, the City of Guelph’s ability to achieve water and wastewater servicing capacity through conservation offers numerous benefits. In looking to water supply capacity, community conservation programming offers water resource sustainability and financial competitiveness of the City’s water utility while meeting the water resource needs associated with significant community growth – an anticipated additional 50,000 persons by 2031 (Ontario Places to Grow Plan). When looking to wastewater servicing, as the assimilative capacity of the Speed River (the City’s sole location for treated wastewater effluent discharge) to accept increasing volumes of treated wastewater effluent is limited, the ability to reduce the volume of liquid wastewater requiring treatment offers ecological benefits to the Grand River Watershed as well as capital and operation financial benefits to the City.

In 2006 Guelph City Council endorsed the Water Supply Master Plan (WSMP). This detailed Master Plan evaluates the water demand associated with projected growth over a 50-year planning horizon as well as new water supply alternatives necessary to facilitate future community growth. This Master Plan identified water conservation and efficiency as the most cost-effective and immediately available source of new water supply and, as such, ranked water conservation and efficiency as the #1 water supply priority action. In support of this direction, the WSMP identified three time-based water reduction targets based on 2006 average daily water production volumes: x Reduction of 10% (5,300 m3/day) in average day water use by 2010; x Reduction of 15% (7,950 m3/day) in average day water use by 2017; and x Reduction of 20% (10,600 m3/day) in average day water use by 2025

Further to the WSMP, both the 2007 Community Energy Initiative and the 2007 Guelph Strategic Plan set sustainability performance goals of using “less water and energy per capita than any comparable Canadian city.” These goals continue to guide the City’s current water conservation activities and bring greater emphasis to the relationship between water supply, wastewater treatment, and energy demand.

To achieve these targets, an update to the City’s Water Conservation and Efficiency Strategy (WCES) was initiated in February of 2008. This award winning 10-year strategy was endorsed by Council in May 2009 and identifies the preferred program, policy, and resource recommendations to achieve a further reduction of 8,773 m3/day by 2019, as well as to achieve the aggressive reduction targets of the Water Supply Master Plan, Water and Wastewater Master Servicing Study, Wastewater Treatment Master Plan, Community Energy Initiative, and Council's Strategic Plan.

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planning horizon of this strategy. Therefore, in meeting the long-term reduction targets of the WSMP, further capacity development was required in the area of research and evaluation of new demand management alternatives. As part of public consultation completed through development of the WCES, strong public and political support for decentralized demand substitution approaches, including greywater reuse and rainwater harvesting, was expressed. With this in mind, pilot programs for home-based greywater reuse and rainwater harvesting programs were approved by Guelph City Council as part of the final WCES to further investigate these technology alternatives and build the necessary technical and social capacity to ensure future readiness of these alternatives.

Residential Greywater Reuse Field Test

In May of 2009 the City of Guelph initiated the Residential Greywater Reuse Field Test to assess the feasibility of large scale adoption of home-based greywater reuse technologies. The study set a target of installing greywater systems in a total of 30 homes (both existing and new homes) to assess system performance in real world environments. Five core areas of study were chosen by the project team, including:

x System Operation and Performance x Public Perception and Homeowner Satisfaction x Household Water Use and Related Energy Monitoring x Municipal Management Frameworks and Required Support Networks x Premise Isolation Device Requirements

To solicit participation in the study, City staff completed consultations with interested members of the Guelph and District Home Builders Association in late 2008. As a result of these consultations, three local home builders, Fusion Homes, Reid’s Heritage Homes, and Evolve Builders Group, agreed to participate in the Field Test and to market residential greywater reuse systems to their clientele.

To promote uptake of greywater reuse technology, Guelph offered an incentive of $1500 to home owners installing an approved greywater system in either new or existing homes. Program participants were also provided at no charge with backflow prevention (premise isolation) devices as well as financial compensation towards the required annual testing of these devices over a five-year period. In exchange for receiving the incentives identified above, participants agreed to allow City representatives to monitor the water quality of the greywater produced by their system on a monthly basis for a period of 12 months, with a single final water quality sample to be taken 24 months after system installation. Additionally, participants were requested to provide feedback through social feedback forums, interviews, and surveys to share their experiences and attitudes towards the technology.

As of completion of this report, a total of 25 participants have installed home greywater reuse systems, including ten in new homes and fifteen in existing homes. Further findings of the Field Test are detailed in the following sections for reference. For additional information on the Guelph Residential Greywater Field Test please visit www.guelph.ca/greywater.

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Greywater Field Test Project Team

A multi-stakeholder project team was established to direct the development, implementation, and evaluation of the Field Test. This project team included representatives from academia, the local home building and home renovation industry, water efficiency engineering consultants, and City staff. The project team is identified below:

Academia

x Matthew DeLuca, M.Sc., University of Guelph x Khosrow Farahbakhsh, Ph.D., P. Eng., University of Guelph x Benjamin Kelly, Ph.D., Nippissing University

City Staff:

x David Auliffe, City of Guelph x Wayne Galliher, A.Sc.T, City of Guelph x Jennifer Gilks, M.Sc., City of Guelph

Home Builders:

x Andy Oding, Reid’s Heritage Homes x Ben Polley, Evolve Builders Group x Ron Thompson, Fusion Homes

Professional Engineering Consultants:

x Bill Gauley, P.Eng., Veritec Consulting Inc.

Federation of Canadian Municipalities Green Municipal Fund

In December 2008, Guelph received notice from the Federation of Canadian Municipalities (FCM) that $72,524 in grant funding was to be provided through the FCM Green Municipal Fund for the Guelph Residential Greywater Reuse Field Test. FCM’s gracious financial support has provided the necessary resources for the City and project team to effectively evaluate the social, economic, and environmental impacts associated with implementing home-based water reuse technologies as well as the considerations in establishing the appropriate municipal management frameworks for home water reuse technologies. The City of Guelph would like to sincerely thank FCM for their support of this initiative and it is hoped that the findings of this study will help to build further capacity and continue dialogue on water reuse amongst communities across Canada. For more information on the FCM Green Municipal Fund please visit: www.fcm.ca.

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Field Test Observations

Key findings of the Residential Field Test included the following:

x Water Demand Reductions: Home greywater systems were successful in reducing household water demand over the period of study with average water demands decreasing by 22.6 litres per capita per day. However, the volume of water saved (and therefore the financial savings) is directly related to the flush volume of the toilets in the home (at this time greywater can only be used for toilet or urinal flushing in the home). In other words, as toilets become more efficient and less greywater is used per flush, the potential for water savings in the home decreases. Conversely, water savings would be greater in homes fitted with inefficient toilets that would flush with more greywater.

x Public Health and Safety: The social research completed as part of this project concluded that both systems owners and members of the general public had minimal concerns regarding personal health and safety associated with general greywater exposure via system upkeep and general operation. Interestingly, aesthetic concerns (odour and colour of treated greywater, for example) were the dominant quality concerns.

x Audience for Technology: With limited public awareness of residential water reuse technologies, the audience for such systems is greatly limited at this time. With this in mind, the future marketing and promotion of such technologies may be best suited to partnerships with green renovators and/or showcase opportunities through “Green Building” demonstration projects. Separately, social research identified that the term “greywater reuse” may limit acceptance of such technologies/practices amongst members of the general public. With this in mind, it is anticipated that future marketing/promotion approaches seek opportunities for more suitable terminologies, such as “recycled water”, to increase the perceived accessibility/applicability of these technologies to broader audiences.

x Cost Effectiveness: At the current municipal water and wastewater user rates, and with the use of residential greywater limited to toilet or urinal flushing, residential greywater reuse systems had significant payback periods (+30 years) when taking into account all operational costs of the systems. While this payback period will decrease as rates increase and system costs diminish, it is difficult to make a business case for the installation of greywater reuse systems in single-family homes at this time. Perhaps the business case associated with installing large-scale or communal greywater reuse systems would be more attractive.

x Maintenance Program Challenges: Residential greywater systems require ongoing maintenance, e.g., homeowners are required to remove soap and debris from system filters and to add chlorine pucks for disinfection when required.. Although this maintenance program was achievable for most participating homeowners, many of the homeowners grew tired of the maintenance requirements over time and expressed their desire for more system automation to alleviate the manual maintenance requirements for the homeowner.

x Treatment Approach vs. Water Quality Guidelines: Overall, the quality of treated greywater produced by the systems included in this pilot project had only a limited overall compliance with the water quality objectives of the 2010 Health Canada Guidelines for Domestic Water Reuse. Although

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greywater quality is largely dependent on homeowner diligence regarding maintenance, quality is also related to the type of treatment employed by the greywater system (filtration and/or chlorination) and the high variability in inlet greywater quality, which is influenced by differences in soap/product use, duration of showers, and person hygiene habits amongst those studied. Most systems installed frequently met the guidelines for E.coli or fecal coliforms but failed to meet guidelines for turbidity and BOD.

Field Test Recommendations

Based on findings of Guelph’s Field Test, the following recommendations have been developed for the implementation and enhancement of home water reuse system-based programming:

5. Need for Increased Communication & Public Education: With system operation/performance contingent on the homeowner’s ability and willingness to complete ongoing system maintenance, it is recommended that introductory educational and promotional elements of water reuse programming accurately reflect all duties/requirements of system ownership. Although this approach may work to effectively limit some audiences from participating, the added transparency provided through introduction of these requirements would be expected to promote a more robust and prepared participant base. Beyond introductory program marketing, it is also recommended that early educational opportunities be introduced to familiarize participating homeowners with their water reuse system as well as system maintenance and common troubleshooting requirements. Furthermore, in sustaining benefits to all parties via system use, it is recommended that vehicles for continued communication with program participants be implemented to offer reminders to homeowners about regular maintenance, to share lessons learned from participant peers, and to increase awareness of support resources available amongst participant groups.

6. Participant Support Networks: In concert with homeowner educational requirements, it is also recommended that educational opportunities for local trades and contractors be developed to further the knowledge base and support network for program participants. An example of such educational opportunities would include the Green Plumbers Program, available in Australia and the United States of America, through which plumbing contractors may gain certification in water reuse system installation and servicing, amongst other environmental disciplines.

7. Affordability, Scale and Evaluation of Format: With residential water reuse currently limited to end uses such as toilet flushing and the priming of traps, the business case for individual home-based water reuse systems will continue to be a challenge unless there is a significant increase in water/wastewater user rates. However, when looking to environments within which water reuse has gained significant uptake, such as in industry, the business case for such endeavors has been greatly aided by the overall scale of implementation and ability to offset significant

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water/wastewater demands. In learning from these models, it is recommended that further evaluation of opportunities for increased scale and alternate service formats be investigated within residential environments. These format alternatives may range from a shared decentralized system within multi-residential type settings to more complex and large scale communal wastewater effluent systems, that are anticipated to enjoy the economies of scale realized within industry and provide the business case necessary for qualified personnel to manage ongoing operational and maintenance requirements of such systems. In working to define these preferred models, it is recommended that a community water reuse feasibility study be completed to assess opportunity by sector, through detailed stakeholder consultation and field process audits, to assess potable vs. non-potable water demands as well as the community appetite for subsequent programming and utility servicing models to best match local need.

8. Backflow Prevention Policy Amendments: A key challenge to making a business case for water reuse is the requirement for backflow prevention devices to be installed in homes with greyewater systems and the associated cost of device testing on an annual basis. Although protection of public health is of paramount importance, there may be opportunities to manage the risk associated with the operation of greywater systems through alternate premise isolation service models and building practice requirements. In Guelph’s Field Test, both testable and non-testable premise isolation devices were installed with field testing of all devices completed on annual basis. Both types of devices achieved the desired level of performance and no complete device failures were observed. In reference to these encouraging field results, and in having implemented system construction requirements prohibiting direct connection of potable and non-potable water systems in the home, it is recommended that City of Guelph Backflow Prevention requirements for such systems be revised to extend the duration at which such devices must be tested provided that redundancies are present within the home to limit cross-connections of the potable and non-potable systems (such as a premise isolation device and air gap for potable water addition to system). Furthermore, it is recommended that non-testable backflow prevention devices (such as Dual Check Valves) be considered for use with such systems with devices to be replaced (if needed) upon the revised inspection frequency to ensure ongoing working order. These recommendations are anticipated to significantly increase financial benefit to homeowners installing greywater systems by significantly reducing annual backflow device testing costs and reducing the costs associated with device replacement. However, with the public interest of mitigating potential risk, it is further recommended that greywater system and related plumbing system inspections be implemented on a annual basis in concert with this backflow policy revision to ensure proper working order of the systems and to manage the occurrence of private changes to household plumbing which may introduce potential threats following initial home plumbing inspections.

9. Rebates and Incentives: Based on the relatively high cost of system installation and the limited return on investment at this time, rebates and incentives continue to be an essential tool in promoting system uptake. However, in looking to municipal affordability, it is recommended that the financial value of municipal incentives be amended to reflect the value of water/wastewater serving capacity saved via system use on a municipality by municipality basis. Beyond the incentive amount, it is also recommended that the use of incentive programs create a linkage to desired community capacity building and knowledge development. For example, water reuse based programming noted in Southern Australia require that systems be installed by a certified Green Plumber to ensure proper system installation/program eligibility. Such program models are seen to create an incentive for local

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contractors to attain associated certifications as a matter of business development. They may also enhance a community’s knowledge base for water reuse and associated support networks.

10. Management Frameworks: With reference to the limited of scale of the Field Test (25 homes) and associated management controls in place, the risk of system malfunction or failure was largely limited to the occurrence of individual private household servicing challenges (inability to flush household toilets) and/or premise based contamination events (wrongful connection of potable and greywater home plumbing systems). Although these risks do require ongoing attention and response strategies, the format and scale at which these technologies were implemented during the Field Test provided a manageable level of risk in comparison to a more extensive roll-out of greywater reuse technologies. However, in looking to legacy challenges around such technologies (such as home resale and technology management amongst new homeowners), staff/stakeholder consultation completed as part of this study offered some valuable suggestions with reference to system-based operational permitting which were not considered through initial implementation of the pilot. With this in mind, it is recommended that further evaluation of water reuse system operational permits be assessed in hope that the introduction of such controls would increase the level of information received regarding active systems on an ongoing basis as well as define the duty to disclose necessary operational requirements of system during events such as home resale and system decommissioning. Furthermore, in building upon consultation completed at a staff stakeholder level, it is recommended that greater dialogue with community stakeholders be completed to assess the full spectrum of service models alternatives, risk by model as well as related mitigation and service response strategies to best address community desire and need.

11. Technology Performance Testing and Certification: With homeowner feedback attained through the Field Test showing great support for more automated/passive greywater reuse technologies, it is essential that further technology enhancement be undertaken at this time to meet greater consumer appeal. Fundamental to such improvements is the introduction of a representative performance testing protocols and associated technology certification programs to make greater performance information available to consumers and reinforce credible technologies in the marketplace. In this regard, the Canadian Standards Association endorsed Standard B128.3 - Performance of Non-Potable Water Treatment Systems within the closing period of the Field Test. This Standard aims to evaluate and certify water reuse technologies (packaged plants) versus a series of common stresses/operational challenges confronted by such system in real world environments. With this standard recently approved, and certified testing facilities for such technologies still to be established, the presence of CSA B128.3 certified technologies is not anticipated in the short-term. However, in looking to the timing of the introduction of certified technologies, it is recommended that technology eligibility criteria for water reuse programming integrate this certification in the future to reinforce the use of robust technologies in the field.

Next Steps

The Greywater Field Testing project provided significant insight into the challenges and opportunities associated with residential water reuse practices, including greywater reuse. This insight provided impetus to undertake further research and development to develop appropriate technologies and public acceptance strategies to enable progressive implementation of residential water reuse and recycling practices. For example, more attention must be placed on technologies that can produce effluent of higher aesthetic City of Guelph Residential Greywater Field Test 58 Final Report

quality. Additionally appropriate technologies must minimize maintenance requirements and offer more cost- effective alternatives to homeowners. The process of technology development must also include shared and community-based systems. The University of Guelph in partnership with the City of Guelph, Viqua, Veritec Consulting, Guelph Chamber of Commerce and three builders, was recently awarded research funding for a two-year project to develop appropriate technology for residential water reuse in Ontario. This project will build on the outcome of the Greywater Field Testing project and will contribute to building capacity in developing and implementing sustainable water and wastewater management practices.

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10.0 References

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City of Guelph Residential Greywater Field Test 66 Final Report

Eric Vance & Associates Planning and Management Consultants

Review of the WeTown Proposal

Prepared for the City of

September 19, 2019

______

Eric C. Vance, MA, FCMC, FCIP, RPP 23100 Gilbert Drive Maple Ridge, B.C. V4R 0C3 Tel: (604) 469-3325 Fax: (604) 469-3356 email: [email protected] www.vanceconsulting.ca ______

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

Executive Summary……………………………………………………………...... 3 1. Introduction...... ……………………………………...... 4 2. Summary of the WeTown Proposal ……………………………...... 6 3. Relevant City Strategic Plan and OCP Goals and Policies…………………... 10 4. Planning Evaluation ……………………………………………………...... 14 5. Economic Viability...... 20 6. Conclusion and Recommendations …………………………………………...... 24

Attachment 1: Examples of Current Master Planned Communities in the Region

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Auguston Town Development Inc. (“Auguston”) is the owner of a 140 acre parcel of land in the Auguston neighbourhood that it proposes to develop as a mixed use hi-tech centre called “WeTown”. The project is envisioned as a relatively complete community that will provide employment, housing, commercial services and public amenities on site. At full build-out, which Auguston assumes will take 20 years, WeTown is estimated to accommodate 18,000 jobs, 28,800 residents and 15,500,000 sq. ft. of floorspace.

Eric Vance & Associates was retained by the City to provide an independent review of the WeTown proposal as part of Council’s consideration of the proposal. The review concluded that the WeTown proposal is a significant departure from many of the key goals and policies of both the Strategic Plan and Official Community Plan. WeTown does not align well with the goals of focussing on the continued development of the Urban Core, especially City Centre, creating a compact community and providing a variety of housing options. The one area where the proposal does align well is with Abbotsford’s economic development goals because it would generate significant employment and business benefits for Abbotsford, as well putting the City in the forefront as an innovation hub.

The review also concluded that WeTown cannot at this point be considered an economically viable project based on the information provided, which carries with it a number of risks to the City if it is started and not completed due to insufficient market demand or other factors.

The review recommends that, should the City wish to further consider the WeTown proposal, significant additional work would be required. The recommended immediate next steps are for Auguston to:

1. Demonstrate that there is interest from senior levels of government, post- secondary education and research institutes, large hi-tech companies, business incubators and other parties in potentially supporting and participating in the project.

2. Undertake detailed environmental and geotechnical studies to determine the actual developable area of the site.

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1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background Auguston Town Development Inc. (Auguston) is the owner of a vacant 140 acre parcel of land in the Auguston neighbourhood of the City of Abbotsford that it is proposing to develop as a mixed-use hi-tech centre called “WeTown” (Figures 1 and 2).

Figure 1: Regional Context Map

Figure 2: Site Context Map

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Auguston’s proposal, elaborated upon in Section 2 of this report, is a significant departure from the current Official Community Plan (OCP) land use designations for the site. To address this issue, Auguston submitted the WeTown OCP Compatibility Study in September 2018 to demonstrate how it believes that its proposal will assist the City in achieving its OCP vision and a number of its OCP objectives.

1.2 Purpose of Review Eric Vance & Associates were retained by the City of Abbotsford in January 2019 to provide an independent review of the WeTown proposal as part of Council’s consideration of the proposal and direction to staff.

The review addresses two key questions:

1. Is the WeTown proposal compatible at a high level with Council’s Strategic Plan and the City’s OCP? Even if it is not, should the Strategic Plan and OCP be revisited because there is a strong planning case for WeTown?

2. Is WeTown an economically viable project as proposed?

The objective of this review was not to either agree or disagree with the point-by-point positions advanced by Auguston on why it believes that its WeTown proposal is generally compatible with the OCP. Rather, the review has taken the information on what Auguston is proposing for WeTown and reached its own conclusions without focusing on what Auguston has concluded.

1.3 Review Process The activities undertaken as part of this assignment included:

. Review of the WeTown OCP Compatibility Study dated September 2018 . Review of the City’s OCP . Review of Council’s Strategic Plan 2019 – 2022 . Review of Abbotsford City Centre and Historic Downtown Market Study prepared for the City by Rollo & Associates, February 2017 . Review of data provided by the City on development activity in Abbotsford . Meetings and discussions with City staff . A site visit to the Auguston neighbourhood and a tour of the Urban Core with City staff

There was no communication during the course of this review with Auguston or the consultants who worked on Auguston’s submission.

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2. SUMMARY OF THE WETOWN PROPOSAL

The WeTown OCP Compatibility Study is a comprehensive document, with considerable technical detail on a number of topics, including land use planning, land use marketability, transportation, servicing and, to a lesser degree, the environment.

The six guiding principles set out in the WeTown proposal (p.5) that have been used by Auguston to show compatibility with the OCP include:

. Create a new regional hi-tech hub . Develop a self-contained mixed use community . Bring additional vibrancy to downtown Abbotsford . Capitalize on employment and housing trends . Emphasize sustainability . Focus on work-life balance and quality of life

2.1 The Development Vision WeTown is envisioned as a regional hi-tech hub in the heart of the Fraser Valley that will include a significant amount of purpose-built office space for a wide range of large tech employers. The proposal also envisions on-site collaborations between these employers and academic institutions that may include attracting a post-secondary school to physically locate on the site.

WeTown is envisioned as a relatively complete community. It will provide housing, commercial services and public amenities for those working and studying at WeTown in a high density mixed-use environment. The plan also anticipates sufficient demand for two hotels.

Figure 3: WeTown Concept Plan

Source: WeTown OCP Compatibility Study, September 2018

As shown in Figures 3 and 4, the WeTown concept includes a mix of uses, including multi-family residential, office, retail, institutional, school, hotels, parks, public amenities ______Eric Vance & Associates Review of the WeTown Proposal for the City of Abbotsford Planning and Management Consultants September 19, 2019 7 and open space. Auguston estimates that the developable area of the site is 91.5 acres, which is 65% of the gross area.

Because of its compact size, WeTown is planned as a walkable community, with reduced reliance on private automobile use by implementing a set of Transportation Demand Management (TDM) measures

Figure 4: WeTown Perspective Plan

Source: WeTown OCP Compatibility Study, September 2018

For this high level planning review, the following information and assumptions contained in the WeTown study are pertinent.

2.2 Housing . The plan anticipates 12,470 housing units under a Medium Residential Forecast: o 8,702 (70%) of the units are occupied by WeTown workers o 1,518 (12%) of the units are occupied by WeTown students o 2,250 (18%) of the units are occupied by residents not directly associated with the activities at WeTown . A total of 9,368,000 sq. ft of residential floorspace are planned based on this number of units . The plan does not identify a specific housing mix, but does suggest that the majority of housing will be apartment units of varying sizes (an average of 800 sq. ft. for adults and 400 sq. ft. for students) . Based on the developable area of the WeTown site being 91.5 acres, this is an average yield of 136 housing units per acre (and significantly higher than that after non-residential areas are netted out) ______Eric Vance & Associates Review of the WeTown Proposal for the City of Abbotsford Planning and Management Consultants September 19, 2019 8

. Most of the housing at WeTown would therefore be in high-rise apartment buildings

2.3 Office Space . The plan includes 2,150,000 sq. ft. of office floorspace under a Medium Office Forecast . This includes office space for anchors and other major tenants and for start-ups and other smaller tenants

2.4 Accelerant Uses . The plan includes 1,452,000 sq. ft of floorspace under a Medium Accelerant Use Forecast . These accelerant uses include university, research institute and incubator

2.5 Retail . The Plan includes 1,193,000 sq. ft. of retail floorspace to support the needs of WeTown residents and workers and the adjacent Auguston neighbourhood . This retail space covers a broad range of uses, including department store type merchandise, convenience (e.g., food and beverage, heath and personal care services, service commercial), financial, entertainment, arts and recreation

2.6 Hotels . The plan anticipates that there will eventually be sufficient demand at WeTown to accommodate two hotels, totalling 328,500 sq. ft of floorspace and 550 rooms . One hotel is envisioned to be built at the mid-point of the project and the other at the end-point

2.7 Public Amenities . A number of public amenity uses are also planned for WeTown, including civic facilities (e.g., community centre), education (K-12, pre-school), conference and meeting space, indoor and outdoor recreation, heath care and public safety (fire / ambulance) . These uses combined are estimated to range from 800,000 to 2,000,000 sq. ft. of floorspace, with a midpoint of 1,400,000 sq. ft. . The WeTown proposal chooses 1,000,000 sq. ft. in its summary of land uses rather than the mid-point

2.8 Traffic and Parking . Based on the planned uses and taking into consideration a number of TDM measures, the proposal projects 3,300 external vehicle trips during the AM peak and 4,400 external vehicle trips during the PM peak . These volumes would be handled by McKee Road – West (45%), Sumas Mountain Road – North (30%) and Sumas Road – South (25%) . Road widening from two to four lanes will be required on Whatcom and McKee . An estimated 18,500 parking stalls will be supplied

2.9 Employment . Based on the amount and type of employment generating floorspace planned for WeTown, it is estimated that there will 18,000 jobs on-site (198 jobs per acre)

2.10 Population . The site is forecast to accommodate 28,800 residents (315 residents per acre) ______Eric Vance & Associates Review of the WeTown Proposal for the City of Abbotsford Planning and Management Consultants September 19, 2019 9

2.11 Build-Out . The project is forecast to have a 20-year build-out, which means of average annual rate of development of: o 625 housing units (468,500 sq. ft. of residential floorspace) o 1,440 residents o 306,600 sq. ft. of non-residential floorspace (office, retail, institutional, public amenity, hotel, etc.) o 900 jobs

2.12 Density . Based on a development area of 91.5 acres and a total of 15,500,000 sq. ft. of floorspace, the gross floor space ratio (FSR) for WeTown is 3.9 . The net FSRs (i.e., parcel-specific, excluding roads, etc.) will be higher than 3.9

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3. RELEVANT CITY STRATEGIC PLAN AND OCP GOALS AND POLICIES

The WeTown proposal is evaluated from a planning perspective using two key City documents: Council’s Strategic Plan 2019 – 2022 and the OCP. The pertinent sections of these documents are summarized here.

3.1 Strategic Plan 2019 – 2022

Vision The City of Abbotsford is the hub of the Fraser Valley. As the regional centre for the Fraser Valley, Abbotsford will be home to centralized services and agencies, including heath care, courts, transportation, university, airport, provincial and federal government, entertainment and cultural facilities, and commerce. We are diverse, inclusive and connected; we are green, prosperous, and healthy; we are a vibrant and beautiful community.

Cornerstones Three of the four cornerstones in the Strategic Plan are relevant: Vibrant Economy, Fiscal Discipline and Complete Community. Within each of these cornerstones, the evaluation considers the following principles:

. Vibrant Economy: The City of Abbotsford is a regional hub of creativity and innovation where talent, investment and business thrive o Develop a vibrant and diverse economy o Recognize the value of innovation in our local economy, especially agriculture

. Complete Community: The City of Abbotsford is a community of inclusive, safe and green neighbourhoods, connected to convenient and affordable transportation and vibrant commercial centres, built on the foundation of our cultural heritage and natural beauty o Capitalize on transportation opportunities in and through the City

. Fiscal Discipline: The City of Abbotsford is transparent and accountable to citizens, information is easily accessible and residents are well informed on Council’s priorities o Adopt a long-term view on maintaining and upgrading our City assets o Financial decisions consider long-term costs alongside the value to the community

3.2 Official Community Plan

Land Use Designations for Proposed WeTown Site The OCP designates the site proposed for WeTown for a mix of land uses that include Neighbourhood Centre (blue), Urban 2 - Ground Oriented Residential (reddish brown), Urban 4 - Detached Residential (yellow) and Open Space (green) (Figure 5).

Neighbourhood Centres are intended to provide a mix of low to medium density multifamily residential (generally a maximum of four storeys) and local convenience commercial uses (e.g., shops, restaurants, personal services). The maximum permitted density in a Neighbourhood Centre is an FSR of 1.5 and the maximum permitted commercial floorspace is 43,000 sq. ft.

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Figure 5: OCP Land Use Designations

Source: City of Abbotsford Official Community Plan

The following elements of the OCP are pertinent in considering whether or not the WeTown proposal is in alignment with the OCP notwithstanding the current land use designations for the site.

OCP Vision Abbotsford is a city of distinct and increasingly complete neighbourhoods rich with public life. Our compact urban area is anchored by a thriving City Centre and surrounded by remarkable natural areas and flourishing agricultural lands. We are diverse, inclusive, and connected. We are green, prosperous, and healthy. We are a vibrant and beautiful community.

OCP Big Ideas Five of the seven Big Ideas in the OCP to realize this vision are particularly relevant to the WeTown review: Create a City Centre, Establish Distinct and Complete Neighbourhoods, Improve Natural and Built Systems, Make Walking, Biking & Transit Delightful, and Make Places for People.

. Create a City Centre o City Centre is the centre of Abbotsford’s public, economic, and cultural life and has a city-wide draw o There are four secondary mixed-use urban centres o City Centre and the secondary urban centres form the urban core (Figure 6) o New neighbourhoods are in areas within the urban development boundary o Focussed residential growth: - 75% (45,000 new residents) in existing centres and neighbourhoods, of which 60% (35,000 new residents) in urban core and other 15% (10,000 new residents) in existing neighbourhoods and around neighbourhood centres outside the urban core - Remaining 25% (15,000 new residents) in new neighbourhoods o Currently about 152,000 residents in the city o OCP projects 200,000 residents by 2040 (1.5% growth per year), but it could be as high as 212,000 residents (1.8% growth per year) ______Eric Vance & Associates Review of the WeTown Proposal for the City of Abbotsford Planning and Management Consultants September 19, 2019 12

o Focus 70% of new commercial development in City Centre, urban centres and neighbourhood centres o Focus residential intensification around Urban and Neighbourhood Centres o Through a mix of uses including retail, office, and residential, create a mix of uses that functions as a distinct neighbourhood o This includes focusing the highest densities and greatest mix of uses in the Urban and Neighbourhood Centres within individual neighbourhoods o City Centre: - Currently 20,000 residents - OCP projects 10,000 more residents, for a total of 30,000 - Primary employment hub and business centre of Abbotsford - Mixed use neighbourhood that serves as city’s most significant destination - Encourage tourist accommodations

Figure 6: Urban Structure

Source: City of Abbotsford Official Community Plan, with WeTown location added.

. Establish Distinct and Complete Neighbourhoods o Support neighbourhood retail and community amenities in existing neighbourhoods in order to provide daily needs within walking distance o This is done by establishing greater residential densities o Diverse housing types within all neighbourhoods, increasing the range of options in terms of affordability, tenure, size, and type that support flexible housing options, including multigenerational living and aging in place

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. Make Walking, Biking & Transit Delightful o Increase transportation choice by making walking, biking, and transit the most attractive options for most trips in the Urban Core and Neighbourhood Centres, and viable options everywhere

. Make Places for People o Balance the number of jobs to number of residents employed in the labour force in the city, reducing the need for longer commute distances o Support opportunities for jobs within complete neighbourhoods where feasible o Support employment hubs by encouraging the City Centre as the primary office hub of the city, with supporting office and amenity areas near the University of the Fraser Valley and the Abbotsford Regional Hospital o Support technological advancements and integration by existing industries such as agriculture, advanced manufacturing, and aerospace/aviation to develop Abbotsford as an innovation hub o Consider developing a technology strategy for creating a co-location hub or incubator in the City Centre and Urban Centres o Currently about 71,500 jobs in city o About 108,000 jobs projected by 2040 (2.3% growth per year)

. Improve Natural and Built Systems o Emphasize a sustainable approach to managing municipal infrastructure by maximizing the efficiency and performance of the existing infrastructure, and planning for infrastructure to support long term growth

3.3 Four Major Evaluation Themes There are common themes that run between the Strategic Plan cornerstones and the OCP Big Ideas and policies set out here. For evaluation purposes, these have been condensed into four major themes:

1. City of Centres: City Centre is the dominant, main hub of residential and commercial growth along with the four Urban Centres - Clearbrook, U District, Historic Downtown, McCallum - that are in close proximity. Together they form the Urban Core. The 14 smaller neighbourhood centres serve residents’ daily needs.

2. Compact City: Transportation choices are available. Efficient use is made of the City’s services, infrastructure and financial resources.

3. Housing Options: A wide variety of housing choices are available to suit a diverse population.

4. Economic Development: A broad range of businesses are retained and attracted to the city and there is significant job creation to allow more residents to work close to where they live. Abbotsford is developed as an innovation hub.

These four major themes form the basis of the planning evaluation of the WeTown proposal that follows.

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4. PLANNING EVALUATION

This section evaluates the key planning elements of the WeTown proposal against the four major Strategic Plan and OCP themes.

4.1 City of Centres City Centre is the dominant, main hub of residential and commercial growth along with the four Urban Centres - Clearbrook, UDistrict, Historic Downtown, McCallum - that are in close proximity. Together they form the Urban Core. The 14 smaller neighbourhood centres serve residents’ daily needs.

Planned Centres Abbotsford places considerable emphasis on supporting and nurturing the residential, commercial and institutional growth of City Centre and the four surrounding Urban Centres. These efforts are paying off.

Council recently adopted the City Centre NP (April 15, 2019). This plan further enhances the OCP’s vision for creating a City Centre. The Plan allows for high rise type development at an FSR of 5.0 (with bonus density).

There are currently 757 townhouse and apartment units under construction in City Centre along with 130,000 sq. ft. of commercial floorspace. Another 1,523 townhouse and apartment units are under application along with 52,000 sq. ft. of commercial floorspace.

According to City staff, there are preliminary discussions underway through the NP process with the owners of Seven Oaks, West Oaks and Clearbrook Town Square about mixed-use redevelopment of these mall sites. The three sites together are about 70 acres in size and could accommodate a significant share of the population and jobs projected for the Urban Core over the next 20 years and beyond. There are also a number of other parcels of land in the Urban Core that are anticipated to be redeveloped for residential, commercial or mixed use at increased densities from the uses currently on them.

The Historic Downtown NP was also recently adopted by Council (April 15, 2019), and the UDistrict NP has been in place for approximately a year. Clearbrook and McCallum NP’s are still to come, but the envisioned overall structure of planned centres is starting to materialize.

Historic Downtown has 150 apartment units under construction and 825 units under application, which are a mix of apartments and townhouses.

UDistrict has 519 residential units, mostly apartments and some townhouse, under construction and a further 79 units under application.

Impact on Planned Centres With a projected 28,800 residents, WeTown would create a centre similar in population size to City Centre, where 30,000 residents are projected to be accommodated within 20 years.

WeTown would therefore create what would essentially be a second City Centre in Abbotsford seven miles (11 kilometres) from the existing City Centre. This is a major

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departure from OCP policy, which designates a neighbourhood centre for the Auguston neighbourhood:

 The amount of commercial floorspace (office, retail, hotel) proposed for WeTown is 86 times the maximum amount permitted in neighbourhood centres.  While potential residential tower heights are not identified in the WeTown proposal, the towers shown in Figure 3 are significantly in excess of the maximum four storey building height generally permitted in neighbourhood centres.  The gross FSR of 3.9 for WeTown is 260% greater than the maximum permitted FSR of 1.5 in neigbourhood centres.

Abbotsford’s City Centre is centrally located within the community. In comparison, a second City Centre at WeTown would be on the Sumas mountainside on the eastern edge of the Urban Development Boundary. It would be relatively isolated and would generally not serve a broader area beyond the Auguston neighbourhood.

Population Impact If Abbotsford were to grow as projected, with possibly as many as 212,000 residents by 2040, WeTown would be absorbing almost half (48%) of all the population growth in the city. This would predominantly be at the expense of growth in the Urban Core.

The OCP population growth projected for Abbotsford was based on a set of assumptions that did not anticipate a development such as that envisioned at WeTown. Therefore, Abbotsford could grow faster than currently projected with WeTown added into the assumptions. This would mean that WeTown would absorb less than 48% of Abbotsford’s total population growth. However, there would still be a significant impact on the rate at which the Urban Core redevelops and grows. It is not reasonable to assume that most or all of the growth and development at WeTown would be above and beyond what happens elsewhere in the city.

4.2 Compact City Transportation choices are available. Efficient use is made of the City’s services, infrastructure and financial resources.

Compactness As envisioned, We Town would be a very compact community, with all land uses within an 800 metre radius (10-minute walk). This is the standard measure used in Metro Vancouver in planning higher density transit oriented development (TOD) around SkyTrain stations. However, the City has no plans to provide rapid transit to the Auguston neighbourhood, meaning WeTown would not be a TOD development.

WeTown would therefore be a very compact community when considered on its own, but would be a relatively isolated community when viewed in the broader Abbotsford context. It lacks good connectivity and does not help the City achieve its goal of concentrating the majority of mixed use growth in the Urban Core as part of being a compact community.

Transportation Impact WeTown assumes that 82% of the housing units will be occupied by people working and studying on the site. As such, there would be a high level of walking and cycling ______Eric Vance & Associates Review of the WeTown Proposal for the City of Abbotsford Planning and Management Consultants September 19, 2019 16

trips internal to the site. This assumption has a major influence on the amount of external vehicle traffic that WeTown is projected to generate and the resulting impact on the surrounding road network in terms of both volumes and required upgrades. It is also a major factor in the amount of parking that is assumed to be required for WeTown, which is relatively low for each type of use and more typically associated with TOD areas.

It is questionable that such a large proportion of those working and studying at WeTown would chose to live there, especially given the very narrow housing choices (elaborated upon in Section 4.3). There is no other urban centre / neighbourhood / community in the Lower Mainland where such a high proportion of those who live there also work there. For example, even in the City of Vancouver, the dominant population and employment centre in the region, only 68% of those who live there also work there, with the rest commuting to other communities to work (2016 Census).

The projected traffic impacts and parking demand at WeTown are also based on a very aggressive set of TDM measures being successfully implemented. The types of TDM measures proposed are more typically associated with TOD planning areas well served by rapid public transit. For example, the residential parking standard of 1.1 stalls per unit (resident and visitor) proposed for WeTown is less than that permitted in the core of Coquitlam’s City Centre, which is served by three rapid transit stations. The recently reduced residential parking requirement in this TOD area ranges from 1.2 stalls per unit for studio and one-bedroom to 1.55 stalls per unit for two-bedroom or more units.

If the assumptions around live/work and TDM measures at WeTown do not come to fruition, there could be a considerably more significant external traffic impact and the need for more extensive road upgrades.

Efficient Use of Resources The City’s capital and operating plans for Abbotsford are predicated on focussing the majority (60%) of future growth and development in the Urban Core, where a wide range of services can be efficiently delivered, such as fire services, policing and public works. Similarly, other agencies (e.g., BC Transit, School District, Fraser Health) also benefit from being able to focus resources in an established compact central area.

The WeTown proposal indicates significant demand for public amenities and services to support the neighbourhood. These include civic facilities (e.g., community centre), education (K-12, pre-school), indoor and outdoor recreation, heath care, public safety (fire, ambulance and policing) and public transit service. There would also be the need to provide major new and upgraded road, water, sewer and other servicing infrastructure both on and off-site.

With a forecast population of 28,800 at WeTown, this would be the equivalent of delivering services to a community about the size of the City of Langley (27,600 residents).

The capital and operating costs of delivering public amenities and services to WeTown would be considerable. A significant share of the initial costs might be borne directly by the developer and through mechanisms such as development cost charges and school site acquisition charges, but the ongoing operation, maintenance, asset replacement and other costs would be borne by the City and other public agencies.

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The WeTown proposal does not address the fiscal impacts of delivering and operating these amenities.

The City has just completed its OCP update, along with a number of master plans, which together drive much of the City’s financial planning. WeTown would require reopening many of these plans, which would consume significant City resources.

4.3 Housing Options A wide variety of housing choices are available to suit a diverse population.

Housing Impact The housing mix in Abbotsford is about 40% single-detached, 33% ground-oriented multi-family (e.g., duplex, townhouse, row house), and 27% apartment (2016 Census). While the city is expected to remain a family-oriented community, there will be increasing demand over time to provide housing to suit the needs of an aging population and to address affordability. That will include more ground-oriented multifamily and apartment units. This is reflected in Abbotsford’s 2018 year-end residential lot and housing unit approvals, with 325 (22%) single-detached, 378 (25%) townhouses and 789 apartment (53%).

Most or all of the housing at WeTown is planned to be accommodated in high rise apartment buildings, with an assumed average unit size of 800 sq. ft. for the non- student housing. And, as discussed in Section 4.2, most of this housing is assumed to be occupied by people working at WeTown.

WeTown has not provided a detailed demographic analysis, but the proposal does indicate that the assumed average number of persons per household (excluding student housing) is in the range of 2.4 - 2.7. This does not reconcile with the assumed average unit size of 800 sq. ft., which is relatively small, especially for families. By comparison, the current average number of person per household in Abbotsford is 1.7 for apartments, 2.5 for townhouses and 3.3 for single-family homes.

In Coquitlam, which is another rapidly growing community in the region with a diverse housing mix, the average number of person per household is 2.0 for apartments, 2.9 for townhouses and 3.2 for single-family homes.

As a consequence of the lack of diversity in WeTown’s planned housing supply, it is likely that significant share of WeTown workers would seek housing elsewhere in Abbotsford or in other communities that is better suited to their needs. If this is the case, the amount of external traffic generated by WeTown would be higher than projected.

It should be noted that the Mckee NP process currently underway has concluded on a preliminary basis that an estimated 4,300 ground-oriented units (single-detached and townhouse) could ultimately be accommodated in the neighbourhood. Some of those working at WeTown could possibly choose to live there as opposed to right at WeTown. This would put them in reasonable proximity to WeTown, but likely still increase automobile use.

WeTown itself does not provide the range of housing choices that Abbotsford wishes to encourage, with almost all of its planned housing in apartment towers. There is also a disconnect between the projected population and the assumed total residential

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floorspace. Either the population projection is too high or the assumed residential floorspace is too low, or possibly a combination of the two.

4.4 Economic Development A broad range of businesses are retained and attracted to the city and there is significant job creation to allow more residents to work close to where they live. Abbotsford is developed as an innovation hub.

Innovation Hub The WeTown proposal strongly aligns with Abbotsford’s goal of becoming an innovation hub by:

. Planning for a significant amount of purpose-built office space for a wide range of large hi-tech employers. . Planning space for start-ups and business incubators. . Possibly attracting a post-secondary school to physically locate on the site to collaborate with these employers.

Commercial Impact The amount and type of commercial floorspace projected for WeTown would generate significant job, property tax and other economic benefits for the city. At the same time, it may impact on commercial development elsewhere in Abbotsford, including City Centre.

The Abbotsford City Centre and Historic Downtown Market Study prepared for the City in 2017 noted:

“The City Centre is the City’s main commercial hub. It has three large malls and several standalone anchors, which allow it to draw spending from across the City. Its retail market is strong, although its office market is overbuilt and in low demand at present. Although its retail sector is thriving, it is also highly generic and unspecialized, which leaves it vulnerable to competition from new space throughout the City (emphasis added). Its urban design is not conducive to walking, which may stunt its growth in the long run.” (p. iv)

The study also concluded that the demand for new commercial floorspace in City Centre will be modest through to 2020 due to a current oversupply before accelerating after that as a consequence of population and income growth.

With respect to hotel space, the study anticipates that there will eventually be sufficient demand for a new hotel in City Centre and a new hotel in Historic Downtown, each with about 100 rooms.

WeTown strives to be a complete community, meeting many of the needs of its residents, workers and visitors on-site. Nonetheless, there is likely to still be a significant spending flow out of the neighbourhood into commercial areas in Abbotsford and beyond. That would be positive for Abbotsford’s business growth.

On the other hand, if WeTown is taking a share of population growth that would otherwise occur elsewhere in Abbotsford then the benefit to commercial development would be diluted.

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The hotels planned for WeTown are unlikely to impact on the potential for new hotel space in City Centre and Historic Downtown. The WeTown hotels are primarily meant to serve the needs of WeTown and, given the neighborhood’s location, they will likely have limited broader draw. However, that depends in part on how they are programmed and marketed.

Employment Abbotsford is projected to have about 108,000 jobs by 2040. WeTown’s projected 18,000 jobs would bring the total to 126,000, a 17% boost. However, as discussed above, some of the development that occurs at WeTown would be at the expense of development elsewhere in the city. The net employment impact would therefore be less, but still very significant.

4.5 Summary The WeTown proposal aligns with Abbotsford’s economic development goals and would generate significant employment and business benefits for Abbotsford, as well putting the city in the forefront as an innovation hub.

WeTown does not align well with Abbotsford’s other key goals, including:

 Focussing on the continued development of the Urban Core, especially City Centre - WeTown would create a second city centre in Abbotsford, which is not envisioned in the OCP, and could have a range of impacts on residential and commercial development in the Urban Core and elsewhere. The recently completed OCP and other master plans would have to be reopened and extensively reworked if WeTown proceeds.

 Creating a compact community - WeTown in itself would be a compact community, but in the broader city-wide context it would be relatively isolated and would create significant demands for services provided by the City and other public agencies that are most efficiently provided by concentrating the majority of growth in the Urban Core. The costs to the City could be significant.

 Providing a variety of housing options - WeTown proposes a narrow range of housing options focussed on high density apartment development, with a relatively small average unit size. A number of those working at WeTown may therefore choose to live elsewhere, which would increase traffic impacts.

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5. ECONOMIC VIABILITY

The WeTown proposal includes a comprehensive Land Use Marketability Study that forecasts the amount and type of land uses that might be supported at WeTown, along with the associated population and employment growth.

The study concludes that Abbotsford offers a number advantages as a location for WeTown, including less costly housing than the bulk of the Lower Mainland, an ambitious local university (University of the Fraser Valley) and access to word-class natural amenities.

5.1 Key Factors It is important to note that the study does not conclude that WeTown, as envisioned, is an economically viable project, nor any of its land use components. Rather, the study recognizes that there are a number of factors that will influence the success of WeTown. Examples include:

“The findings make clear that if the project is to proceed on the scale as envisioned, a critical mass of employment activity is a precondition. Indeed, without placing an emphasis on attracting catalyst or ‘accelerant’ tenants such as industry-leading corporate offices, a post-secondary school, a research institution, and/or a business incubation facility, only a comparatively modest development program can be justified from the absorption of forecast growth.” (p.2)

“If all assumptions are met and a marketing plan is successfully executed, WeTown at full buildout has the potential to host upwards of 18,000 jobs, 28,800 residents, and a total of 15,500,000 sq. ft. of space across all uses.”(p.3)

“Preliminary land use forecasts for employment, residential, retail, hotel and other major land uses have been conducted by the consultant. All figures are based on the assumption that market conditions remain favorable, economic trends remain conducive to the proposed tenant mix, and that a marketing program will be of sufficient strength to attract the quantity of firms and residents at the scale envisioned.” (p. 3)

“Several additional conditions, in addition to the realization of employment space at the envisioned scale, are required in order for the residential programming vision to succeed:

. Given the smaller than average unit sizes, marketing teams must be successful in highlighting the complete community aspect of WeTown. Prospective residents must be sold on the fact that they are trading-off private space for a beautiful complete community rich with amenities.

. WeTown must provide a range of housing options broad enough to support a community of nearly 30,000 residents. A broad range of apartment sizes will be necessary in order to appeal to a broader range of buyers and tenants.

. A high share of employees at WeTown must be convinced to also reside on the site. While part of the appeal will be convenience and lifestyle

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oriented, care should be taken to ensure that residing at WeTown is also an economically appealing proposition…” (p.65)

“Indeed, the extent of hotel demand is tied to how successful the project is in terms of creating a regional destination and the extent of complementary land uses on-site, including major office development and the identified accelerant uses.” (p. 73)

These are all reasonable assumptions and conditions that will influence the economic viability of WeTown.

A critical missing component at this point is any demonstrated interest in the WeTown concept by major hi-tech companies, research institutions, universities and others, as well as some indication of interest by senior levels of government in supporting the concept. The WeTown proposal acknowledges this, stating:

“For the complete vision to come to fruition, a willingness on the part of academic institutions and governments must be present.” (p. D)

It is recognized that it is too early in the process to be expecting firm commitments from employers or institutions to locate at WeTown, but without at least some indication of actual interest from the market, the economic viability is highly speculative.

The WeTown proposal recognizes this, noting that an effective marketing program must be created and successfully implemented.

5.2 Develop Potential Another topic that requires closer examination is the actual physical potential of the WeTown site. The proposal indicates that the developable area is 91.5 acres, but the OCP indicates that the site is bisected by watercourses that would need to be protected.

The WeTown proposal briefly touches upon this topic, but notes that the environmental findings to date are only preliminary. With respect to development potential, the following statements are noted:

“The proposed development concept for WeTown involves development within portions of the Auguston lands that are affected by environmental features. With the exception of some land north of McKee Road, the City’s web-map identifies these lands as sensitive ecosystems. Although not as extensive, the City also identifies a high percentage of the project area as stream habitat.” (p. 29)

“The current WeTown concept has been revised …. to generally avoid building on areas with the most sensitive ecosystems. The revised plan further reduces the environmental impact by avoiding (or crossing over top of) the higher value habitat features.” (p. 30)

Considerably more study is needed on this topic to determine how much of the site can actually be developed without adverse environmental impacts. If it is less than currently assumed then the plan will have to be adjusted accordingly, which could affect the amount of development that WeTown can reasonably accommodate.

There is also a Trans Mountain pipeline crossing the site that is not addressed in the Auguston report nor are geotechnical conditions discussed. ______Eric Vance & Associates Review of the WeTown Proposal for the City of Abbotsford Planning and Management Consultants September 19, 2019 22

5.3 Development Timeframe The assumed 20-year build-out of WeTown is very ambitious. That is a substantial amount of residential, commercial and institutional floorspace to be absorbed into the Abbotsford market and indeed the Lower Mainland market in what is a relatively short period of time for a development of this scale.

Table 1 compares the projected rate of development at WeTown with the actual rate of development that has occurred in Abbotsford over the previous ten years.

Table 1: Average Annual Rate of Development Comparison Comparison Criteria WeTown 20 Year Build- City of Abbotsford Previous Out 10-Year Growth Rate Housing Units 625 600 Population 1,440 1,900 Non-Residential Floor 306,600 sq. ft. 170,000 sq. ft. (commercial and Space Institutional) Jobs 900 500 - 600 Source: City of Abbotsford

At a projected rate of 625 housing units being developed per year, WeTown alone would be creating more housing than has been added to all of Abbotsford annually (600 units) over the past decade.

Not only are WeTown’s housing projections ambitious by Abbotsford standards but even by broader regional standards. The following rates of development are anticipated for the following three master planned high density mixed-use communities, each owned by a single developer, centrally located in the region and in close proximity to rapid transit and other major transportation connections:

. The Beedie Group’s proposed 92-acre Fraser Mills mixed-use development in southwest Coquitlam on the Fraser River, which is in close proximity to Highway 1 and 1.8 miles (3.0 km) from the Braid Street rapid transit station, is planned to include up to about 5,000 apartment units. If approved, Fraser Mills is estimated to have a 25-year build-out, which would be an average of about 200 housing units annually. (Attachment 1).

. Shape Properties’ 28-acre Brentwood shopping mall in North Burnaby, adjacent to the Lougheed Highway and integrated with the Brentwood Town Centre rapid transit station, is planned to include up to 6,000 apartment units. Already underway, the mixed-use project is estimated to have a 20-year build-out, which would be an average of about 300 housing units annually. (Attachment 1).

. Shape Properties’ 37-acre Lougheed shopping mall in Northeast Burnaby, adjacent to the Lougheed Highway and the Lougheed Town Centre rapid transit station, is planned to include up to 10,000 apartment units as part of redevelopment. The rezoning has been approved and construction has begun, with an estimated build-out of at least 25 years, which would be an average of about 400 housing units annually. (Attachment 1)

Based on this data, it is likely that WeTown would have a much longer development timeframe than 20 years if it were to proceed.

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5.4 Risks It cannot be concluded at this point that WeTown is an economically viable project or that it can be physically developed as envisioned. Allowing it to proceed without significantly more information, analysis and clearly demonstrated market demand at the scale envisioned presents a number of possible risks to Abbotsford. Examples include:

. Disruption of the local residential and commercial markets. . Partly completed servicing infrastructure (e.g., roads, water and sewer) external or internal to WeTown that the City must complete at its cost to appropriately serve the needs of whatever portion of WeTown is developed . Residents of WeTown left without necessary on-site public amenities and other services (i.e., a less than complete community). . Allocation of significant staff time and other City resources to the development review and approval process (OCP and zoning) and to update master plans to accommodate a project that either doesn’t proceed or stalls.

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6. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

In terms of Abbotsford’s Strategic Plan and OCP, the WeTown proposal aligns well with many of the City’s economic development goals. However, it does not align well with the goals of supporting the existing Urban Core, creating a compact community and providing housing options.

WeTown cannot at this point be considered an economically viable project based on the information provided, which carries with it a number of risks to the City of Abbotsford if it is started and not completed due to insufficient market demand or other factors.

If the City wishes to further consider the WeTown proposal, two actions are recommended as the immediate next steps:

1. Auguston demonstrating: . That there are specific post-secondary education and research institutes, large hi-tech companies, business incubators and other parties that may be potentially prepared to locate at WeTown and the conditions under which they would consider locating there. . That there is potential interest from senor levels of government in supporting the WeTown concept and the form that this support might take.

2. Auguston undertaking detailed geotechnical and environmental studies to determine the actual developable area of the site.

Depending on the outcome of these two steps and Council’s interest in further exploring the WeTown proposal, other topics that should be addressed include:

. Reconsideration of the amount and type of housing provided at WeTown, with the objective of providing a broader mix.

. Commissioning a peer review of the WeTown servicing review, examining both onsite and offsite servicing for sanitary, water, and drainage systems.

. Undertaking a high level fiscal impact analysis that considers both the revenues that WeTown would generate (e.g., property taxes, DCCs) and the long-term municipal capital and operating costs of supporting WeTown, which is not part of any of the City’s current financial and other plans.

There would be considerable time, costs and resources required of the City to further explore the WeTown proposal and the actions listed above are simply the recommended next steps. They are not all the work that would be required and the results ultimately may

______Eric Vance & Associates Review of the WeTown Proposal for the City of Abbotsford Planning and Management Consultants September 19, 2019 25 not lead to a project that the City wishes to support. However, without significantly more information being provided, it cannot be determined at this point if there is a strong case for WeTown as proposed that should cause Abbotsford’s Strategic Plan and OCP to be revisited.

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Attachment 1 - Examples of Current Master Planned Communities in the Region

Proposed Fraser Mills Development – Southwest Coquitlam

Source: Beedie Group and Perkins + Will. Draft plan - subject to change.

Brentwood Mall Redevelopment – North Burnaby

Source: Shape Properties ______Eric Vance & Associates Review of the WeTown Proposal for the City of Abbotsford Planning and Management Consultants September 19, 2019 27

Lougheed Mall Redevelopment – Northeast Burnaby

Source: Shape Properties

______Eric Vance & Associates Review of the WeTown Proposal for the City of Abbotsford Planning and Management Consultants September 19, 2019