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Embracer Group Update Equity Research 4 September 2020 Embracer Group Sector: Gaming Many Power-Ups Gained FAIR VALUE RANGE BEAR BASE BULL Redeye believes the increased number of studios in the group, the growing IP portfolio, and 95 205 260 especially the increasing quality in the games released are key drivers for Embracer’s continued success. Despite what many investors think, Embracer Group is not a one-man show, it is a family effort of doing something great in the gaming industry. EMBRAC.ST VERSUS OMXS30 OMXS 30 Embracer Group 200 Positive Chain of Events Two of the three major acquisitions following the Q1-report were composed by the two 150 founders of Saber Interactive (currently Embracer’s second largest shareholder) One of the 100 crucial reasons for 4A Games and NWI to “join the family” was in fact to consolidate with Saber Interactive. The effect of the acquisition of Saber Interactive resulted in two other 50 acquisitions of high-quality studios. We expect this positive chain of events will continue in 0 Embracer Group which will enable continued earnings growth for the company. 04-sep 03-dec 02-mar 31-maj 29-aug REDEYE RATING Improving the Quality One of our concerns over the years has been that Embracer’s games score relatively low in 5 ratings (Metascore and user score). Embracer has the last year communicated its “Quality 4 4 First” Strategy which has shown good results. Many of last quarter’s multiple games released has a Metascore of over 80. High quality products will always be a competitive advantage and will increase Embracer’s prospects we expect. People Business Financials Continued Momentum in Game Sales We believe Embracer will continue its momentum with solid backlog-sales and a strong KEY STATS pipeline of games. During Q2 we already know “Destroy All Humans”, “Wasteland 3” and Ticker EMBRAC.ST Iron Harvest has shown solid sales numbers and more successful releases will come. Market Nasdaq Share Price (SEK) 161.4 Increased estimated sales and earnings (mostly in a long-term perspective) and a higher Market Cap (MSEK) 60098 conviction in Embracer prospects overall has resulted in an increased fair value range of Net Cash 20E (MSEK) 3651 SEK 95-260 (65-170) with a base case of SEK 205 (130) per share. Free Float 50 % KEY FINANCIALS (SEKm) FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E Net sales 5754 8248 9549 11016 ANALYSTS EBITDA 1592 3417 3937 4738 Tomas Otterbeck Op. EBIT 880 2180 2645 3048 [email protected] EPS (adj.) 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E EV/Sales 9.8 7.2 6.3 5.5 Jonas Amnesten EV/EBITDA 13.8 17.6 15.2 12.7 [email protected] EV/Op.EBIT 24.3 27.5 22.7 19.7 Important information: All information regarding limitation of liability and potential conflicts of interest can be found at the end of the report Redeye, Mäster Samuelsgatan 42, 10tr, Box 7141, 103 87 Stockholm. Tel. +46 8-545 013 30, E-post: [email protected] REDEYE Equity Research Embracer Group 4 September 2020 Three Major Acquisitions Embracer announced eight acquisitions. The largest of them is 4A Games, New World Interactive, and Deca Games. 4A Games 4A Games is the developer of the Metro series. This is an acquisition we have been hoping for a long time. Embracer has now acquired both Warhorse and 4A Games developers of their two top-grossing games in recent years. Some facts about the transaction: Upfront purchase price: USD 36 million (cash and Embracer-stocks) Earnout of EUR 35 million maximum. 2020: Net Revenue of EUR 20 million, adjusted EBIT of EUR 12 million (margin 60%) New World Interactive (NWI) IP-owner of the critically acclaimed game series called “Insurgency”. Fanbase 10 million users, 7 million units sold of Insurgency only on PC. The last game in the series called Insurgency Sandstorm to be released on console in H1 2021 (in collaboration with Saber Interactive). Purchase price: Undisclosed (Cash and Embracer-stock) We expect at least two FPS multiplayer games are expected based on Metro and Insurgency. The FPS-genre is highly lucrative and competitive. But this type of popular game IPs is a very good start to compete in this genre we believe. The combination of Sabre Interactive, 4A Games, and NWI will make Embracer a powerhouse in the FPS shooter genre, typically high (or mid to high) budget games. We also believe that Embracer will try the free-to-play multiplayer business model (like Remedy and Microsoft recently) in at least one of the upcoming multiplayer games. A few weeks ago, we stated that listed Nordic Gaming companies lack social multiplayer games based on popular franchises. These acquisitions will give Embracer a good start. Deca Games Daily Active Users (DAU): 1.5 million. An impressive number. For example, G5 Entertainment has a DAU of 1.8 million. With some research on Sensor Tower, the major game from Deca is called Dragonvale. According to the same source, the game is almost ten times larger (in revenue) than the second and third top-grossing games in the portfolio. We believe the acquisition of Deca Games adds an interesting flavor to the Group. This new business area will also give the group opportunities in the highest growing gaming market of them all. We also can stop ourselves to start speculating about more free-to-play games in amongst the PC and Console games fueled by the knowledge from Deca Games. Some facts about the transaction: Upfront Purchase Price: EUR 25 million (Embracer-stocks). Earnout of EUR 60 million maximum. 2 dsfdsf REDEYE Equity Research Embracer Group 4 September 2020 Powerhouse of Entrepreneurs In Sweden, many investors explain the investment case in Embracer as an investment in the founder and CEO Lars Wingefors. However, since the acquisition of Koch Media in 2018 and especially since the acquisition of Saber Interactive at the beginning of 2020 the group has become a powerhouse of entrepreneurs that seeks beneficial acquisitions to become a better company and create shareholder value. Lars Wingefors and Erik Stenberg still have 51% of the votes and 35% of the capital in Embracer, but they nowadays also have well-needed help and knowledge from entrepreneurs and major shareholders in the other business areas. To keep it simple, Embracer Group is not a one-man show, it is a family effort of doing something great in the gaming industry. Two of the three major acquisitions following the Q1-report were composed by Andrey Iones and Matthew Karch the owners of Saber Interactive and currently the owners of 11.2% of the capital in Embracer Group. One of the crucial reasons for 4A Games and NWI to “join the family” was in fact to consolidate with Saber Interactive. The effect of the acquisition of Saber Interactive resulted in two other acquisitions of high-quality studios at a reasonable price. We expect this positive chain of events will continue in Embracer Group which will enable continued growth for the company. It is also positive that Lars Wingefors during the earnings presentation mentioned that more owners in the acquired companies prefer Embracer-stocks instead of cash as payment. Improving the Quality One of our concerns over the years has been that Embracer’s games score relatively low in ratings (Metascore and user score). Embracer has the last year communicated its “Quality First” Strategy which has shown good results. The last month's multiple games released has a Metascore of over 80. Of course, a high Metascore is not a guarantee for commercial success. For example, two of the recent games from Embracer, namely Desperados 3 and Huntdown that have received the highest Metascore (85) amongst them all has been far less commercially successful than for example SpongeBob and Destroy all Humans. The recipe for top-grossing games is therefor strong IPs in popular genres that are good enough we believe. Saints Row needs something fresh A game series that Embracers asset care has gone too far is according to us (many game critics and users would agree) is Saints Row. According to our data sources, the last remaster (released in Q1) was likely profitable due to the strong IP and popular genre, but fans weren’t that happy because it was not good enough. We expect a new installment in the game series will be released next year and hopefully regain what is lost. Saints Row is one of Embracer strongest IPs, it is a successful Grand Theft Auto (GTA) clone, simply explained. We expect one of the planed AAA games (a budget above USD 30 million) released next year is a new Saint Row game. GTA5, released seven years ago has an online mode that still is one of the top 10 grossing games globally. It would be a good guess to expect an online mode in the next installment of Saint Row. 3 dsfdsf REDEYE Equity Research Embracer Group 4 September 2020 Financial projections We believe Embracer will continue its momentum with solid backlog-sales and a strong pipeline of games. During Q2 we already know “Destroy All Humans”, “Wasteland 3” and Iron Harvest has shown solid sales numbers according to official sales data (steamspy, gamstat) Notable Releases July-September Business Area IP Date Genre Saber WWE Battlegrounds Developer License 18-9-20 Beat Em Up Deep Silver Wasteland 3 Publish 3rd party 27-8-20 Strategy Iron Harvest Publish 3rd party 1-9-20 RTS THQ Destroy All Humans Pub/Dev Own 28-7-20 Strategy Kingdoms of Amalur Pub/Dev Own 8-9-20 RPG Partner/Publishing Marvel's Avengers Distribution License 4-9-20 Action/Looter Q2 (July-September) THQ Nordic we expect will show strong sales driven by two major remasters, namely "Destroy all Humans" and "Kingdom of Amalur", where the company in both cases owns the IP and is the developer and publisher.
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