The Choice of Future Exchange Rate Regime in the West Bank and Gaza
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The Choice of Future Exchange Rate Regime in the West Bank and Gaza Ulric Erickson von Allmen and Felix Fischer n issue that has received considerable atten rency has important economic implications, and the tion over the past few years is whether the decision to introduce a currency, like any other APalestinian Authority (PA) should introduce its own major economic policy decision, should take into currency and if so under what type of exchange rate account its welfare implications. Currency introduc regime. I This is sue will surely receive more attention tion can be compared with a fixed investment; it in the coming years and will be discussed against the can bring benefits to the Palestinian economy but background of widespread consensus among econo with risks, and like fixed investment, currency re mists and central bankers chat monetary policy form is difficult to reverse. should be concerned primarily with price stability. The West Bank and Gaza is in a different position There is also a renewed international discussion on from other countries that have introduced their own the appropriate exchange rate regime for developing currencies in recent years. The national currencies countries, following the capital account driven cur introduced in the countries of the former Soviet rency crises in emerging market economies in the Union, for example, replaced an inconvertible cur late 1990s.2 Over the past 10 years, countries with rency that had lost its value and attraction after a open capital accounts have tended to shift away bout of high inflation. It is not particularly difficult from soft pegs in favor of either very hard pegs (in to convince people to shift to a new currency in cluding currency boards) or more freely floating such an environment. In the West Bank and Gaza, regimes; even abandoning the local currency alto on the other hand, the currencies that are currently gether in favor of complete dollarization is an option used-the Jordan dinar, the new Israeli shequel, and that has attracted some attention recently (see, for the U.S. dollar-are all stable and convertible so it example, Fischer, 2001 ). It is too early to say, will probably be more difficult to convince people to though, that a consensus has formed on the sound shift to a new, untested currency. What is crucial is ness of this bipolar view of exchange rate regimes. the public's confidence in the Palestinian policy in A local currency can have significance that tran stitutions'-the PMA as well as the PA more gener scends its traditional roles as a unit of account, ally-commitment and capacity to maintain the medium of exchange, and store of value; it can also stability and convertibility of the new currency. be a national symbol, carrying cultural, political, The purpose of this chapter is to discuss the key and historical significance. At the same time, a cur- issues involved in the introduction of a Palestinian currency. It will argue that because the current set •The wpic has been discussed at two conferences organized by ting works quite well, there is no need to rush ahead the Palestine Monetary Authority (PMA), in Gaza in December with the introduction of a Palestinian currency-in 1998 and in Cairo in November 1999. deed, on purely economic grounds, it is not obvious ZSee Mussa and others (2000) for a recent review of exchange rate regimes issues. that it makes sense to introduce a Palestinian cur- The Choice of Futwe /Exchllnge Rate Regime In the West Banlc and Gaza ------------------------------------ Ta ble 6.1 Economic Indicators for the West Bank and Gaza and Selected Economies' (In billions of U.S. dollars, unless otherwise indicated) (Exporcs + GOP Imports/ Exports/ lmporcs)/ Exporcs Per Currency/ Population Per GOP GOP GOP Capita GOP (millions) GOP Capita Imports Exports (%) (%) (%) (US$) (%) West Bank and Gaza 2.8 4.2 1,529.8 3.4 0.7 80.5 17.5 98.0 268 Jordan 5.1 7.5 1.451.6 5.0 3.5 66.8 47.1 114.0 684 20.9 Israel 6.1 98.9 16,253.6 40.9 35.8 41.4 36.2 77.6 5,883 3.0 Estonia 1.5 5.1 3.448.3 5.0 4.6 96.9 89.1 186.0 3,073 7.6 Hong Kong 6.7 158.6 23,639.6 201.4 209.6 127.6 132.1 259.7 31,238 8.1 Panama 2.9 9.6 3,353.7 4.0 3.1 41.3 32.8 74. 1 1,100 World averagel 33.4 173.6 6,087.9 39.1 39.1 44.7 39.7 84.4 2,705 7.5 World median2 6.8 9.0 1,618.3 3.7 3.0 42.7 35.7 78.7 578 5.8 Sources: IMF. World Economic Outlook database; Palestinian Central Bureau ofS tatistics; and IMF staffestimates. I Data refer to 1999. 2180 countries were used for these calculations. rency-and that the PA and the PMA should focus Bank and G�za can be considered an open economy on preparing the ground so that a currency intro on the basis of two common measures of openness: duction would be successful. The scope for the PMA (i) the magnitude of its balance of payments flows to conduct an independent monetary-cum-ex compared with the size of the economy, and (ii) the change rate policy under any form of exchange rate degree of restrictiveness of the rrade and exchange regime is extremely limited, and with considerable regime. With respect to the former, the sum of ex downside risks in the form of macroeconomic W1cer ports and imports of goods and services equals al tainty and possible instability. For these reasons, this most 100 percent of GOP, a high level by interna chapter argues that if a Palestinian currency were to tional standards (Table 6.1).4 Other balance of be introduced, it would stand the greatest chance of payments flows are also important. Before the recent success if it were under a currency board arrange crisis, labor income from Israel and the settlements ment; indeed, it might be difficult to successfully in equaled almost 20 percent of GDP; foreign aid dis, troduce a Palestinian currency under any other type bursements amounted to roughly l3 percent of of regime. Thus, the important issue is credibility of GDP; and foreign direct investment equaled around the exchange rate/monetary regime rather than the 6 percent of GDP. There is no reliable information usual fixed versusflexible exchange rate aspect. on the transfers from Palestinians living abroad, but these flows are generally considered to be substan tial. In all, the balance of payments flows are very A Brief and Selective Overview large relative to the size of the economy. of the Palestinian Economy The exchange regime ( rhat is, rhe legal and regu latory system that governs trade and fo reign ex A Small Open Economy change transactions) is also very open, as it does not restrict payments and transfers for current or capital The West Bank and Gaza is a small open econ transactions. As regards the trade regime, the West omy in the sense that it cannot affect world prices of Bank and Gaza is in a customs union with Israel. its exports and imports. It is small. Its population is and the common external tariff, with a few excep- just under 3 million and the gross domestic product (GOP) was estimated at about US$4.2 billion in 1999-roughly one twenty-fifth of Israel's GOP and anu its seulcmenr�. Gross Jisposabk income, which also takes less than one-half of the world median.3 The West into accoum current transfers from abroad, is even higher at about US$ 5.5 billion. 4Jmpnn:s equ;ll roughly 80 percent llfGDP, which is high by in 3Gross national income (GNI) was htgher at approximately ternattonal companson. whcr�<t> expons amount 10 arounu 18 US$5.1 billion mainly because o( labor income eam�d in Israel percent of GOP, whtch is low (sec Chapter 4). 113 WUT BANK AND GAzA: EcoNOMIC PERFORMANCE, PROSPECTS, AND Poucau --------------------------------------� Ta ble 6.2 Consolidated Banking System (In millions of U.S. dollars; balances at the end ofthe period.) 1996 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 jan. Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec. Sep. Net foreign assets 1.012 1,375 1.485 1,669 1,972 2,388 Net domestic assets 187 126 331 547 643 1,118 Net claims on the nonfinancial public sector -27 -184 -167 -75 -103 266 Credit tothe private sector 251 409 563 733 913 1,074 Other items (net) -37 -99 �5 -1 12 -167 -223 Liabilities to the private sector 1,199 1,501 1,815 2,216 2,6 15 3,506 Demand deposits 485 543 605 673 868 Time and savings deposits 1,017 1.273 1,611 1.942 2,637 Source; Palestinian MonetaryAuthority tions, is set by Israel (see Chapter 4). The trade tion of three convertible currencies-the Jordan regime is quite complex, and although Israel's aver dinar, the new Israeli shequel, and the U.S. dollar age most-favored-nation (MFN) tariff is reasonably (see Box 6.1). TI1e situation can be described as one low, at 8.8 percent, the tariffdispersion is very high. of complete currency, asset and liability substitution, Palestinian exporters and importers are constrained, and for convenience, it will be referred to as dollar fu rthermore, by cumbersome trade and transporta ization although currencies other than the dollar are tion restrictions imposed by Israel for its security also involved.