Research Matters News from the Department of Sustainability and Environment’s Spatial Analysis and Research

ISSN: 1448-6881 Issue 37 March 2006 The 1956 Olympics and 2006 Commonwealth Games – a half century of demographic change in In 1956, Melbourne’s 1976. In 1956 still practiced a White Australia policy. In population was 1.7 1954 there was a paltry 10,700 Asian born people in Melbourne. million, less than half its This would grow to 41,000 by 1976 and 230,000 by 2001. present total. Melbourne’s At the 1954 census, men in the formal workforce outnumbered annual population growth women by 2.3 to 1, whereas in 2001 it was only 1.2 to 1. rate of 2.8%, compared Manufacturing accounted for 40% of jobs compared with less with today’s 1%, and than 15% today. Although car manufacturing was booming in was being driven by a 1956, cars were yet to take over Melbourne. Public transport combination of high rates accounted for twice as many trips as the car. Today it is one-eighth. of natural increase and overseas migration. In 1956 fast population growth on Melbourne’s fringes was as much an issue as it is now. The 1954 planning fi lm of Melbourne, 1956 Olympic Games at the Australia and Melbourne showing prams being pushed along muddy unmade roads, bears Melbourne Cricket Ground were in the midst of a testimony to this and to the progress we have made. Today Source: NLA, pic-vn 3122956 baby boom. The national the ‘fringe’ suburbs are in fast growing local government areas fertility rate was 3.3. such as Wyndham (annual growth of 7.3%), Melton (6.9%) or This was to climb to a high of 3.6 in 1961 and was still as high Cardinia (4.3%). In 1956, a combination of strong metropolitan as 2.9 by the start of the 1970s. The placement of the oral population growth, increasing affl uence and mobility, cheap land contraceptive pill on the medical benefi ts list in the early 1970s and fi nance resulted in a land grab more reminiscent of those resulted in a dramatic and lasting change. Fertility rates fell to we now see around cities in Africa or Asia. Wyndham’s current below 2.1 (replacement level) within the eight years after 1971 growth rate was surpassed by many LGAs in 1956: Berwick, and have hovered around 1.7 to 1.8 for the last twenty years. The Broadmeadows (both 18%), Waverley, Keilor, Doncaster and consequences of this were an ageing population and a slower Templestowe (all 16%), Diamond Valley and Altona (both 13%). population growth rate. Meanwhile the inner city in 1956 was very different to the one In 2005, in response to increasing skills shortages, the that it has become today. During 1956 the Cities of Melbourne Commonwealth Government has raised its overseas migration and South Melbourne both lost over 2% of their population and target to 140,000 for 2005/06. If this was achieved it would all other inner city areas lost population. Despite the fl at boom of represent a 0.7% increase in Australia’s population. In 1956, the 1960s, these losses were to continue, almost unabated, until 93,000 new migrants arrived in Australia, a 1% addition to the early 1990s. Melbourne then became a ‘post-industrial’ city. the national population or the equivalent of 200,000 in today’s Living in the centre became economically and culturally attractive. Australia. In 1956 Melbourne received a larger share of migrants Industry decentralised, the port and the railways rationalised their who mostly came by ships that docked in Melbourne before land requirements and created space for housing. All in all, the Sydney. increasingly knowledge-based city of 2006 has a very different In 1956 Melbourne’s median age was a surprisingly high 32 years dynamic to its industrial forefather of fi fty years ago. compared with 35 in 2001. While the baby boom was in full ‘cry’ * More about how Melbourne has changed can be found in the in 1956, there was a comparative dearth of people aged between forthcoming Atlas of Melbourne. 10 and 25, owing to the Great Depression and World War II. Although post war Melbourne had attracted many migrants and refugees from war-torn Europe, it had yet to become the Inside multicultural city that it is today. In the 1954 census, only 12% of Melbourne’s population was recorded as being born overseas, Zoning in on Nodes: Land use in the Industrial Nodes 2 compared with 27% by 1976 and 30% in 2001. Almost half the overseas born population was from the British Isles. The wave The changing fl ows of interstate migration 3 of Italian migration had started – the number of Italian born in Melbourne increasing from 30,000 in 1954 to over 100,000 by Mill Park Housing Choice Survey 4 1976. But the wave of Greek migration had hardly started – their numbers were to grow from a mere 5,500 in 1954 to 73,000 by Resear Zoning in on Nodes: Land use in the Industrial Nodes in Melbourne DSE regularly collects and publishes information about industrial manufacturers, Toyota in the West and Ford in the North, while in land supply across metropolitan Melbourne and Geelong. the South a diverse mix of products are manufactured including However there is little information available about the economic car components, machine tools and parts, lifting and material use of industrial land. The Spatial Analysis and Research Branch handling equipment, telecommunication equipment and scientifi c recently developed estimates of employment using census data equipment. based on Transport Destination Zones in four metropolitan For further information keep an eye on the Urban and Regional Industrial Nodes. The four industrial nodes were defi ned by Spatial Research section of the DSE website www.dse.vic.gov.au/ Analysis and Research for analytical and comparative purposes. research/urbanandregional or contact Peter Elliott by email Different types of industrial uses have different locational [email protected]. requirements as well as different impacts. For example warehouses typically require large areas of land. On the other Estimated Proportion of Employees of Industrial Nodes by hand warehouses tend to have fewer people employed on site ANSIC Division, 2001 compared to manufacturing. As a result there are differences in the requirements for services such as water, sewage, electricity etc. In 2001 approximately 75,600 people were employed in Melbourne’s four major Industrial Nodes, with 17,400 in the West, 7,500 in the Airport, 21,000 in the North and 29,700 in the South Industrial Node. Location of Industrial Nodes, Melbourne

Urban Development Program – Upcoming Forums The Urban Development Program (UDP) is now in its fourth year of operation and is one of the primary mechanisms for providing advice to Government about the supply, demand and adequacy of residential and industrial land across metropolitan Melbourne and the Geelong Region. This involves an extensive consultation process across the development industry, local government, utility and service providers, and other Source: DSE, 2005 government agencies. In addition, a series of Development Forums are conducted to provide confi rmation of the supply Not surprisingly each of the Nodes has different industrial land and demand of residential and industrial land, as well as uses. The chart below shows that manufacturing is the largest the identifi cation of site specifi c issues that may impact the single sector in all of the Nodes. In the South and North Industrial timing and yield of projects from a planning and development Nodes it employs the majority of workers. In the West and perspective. Airport Nodes, manufacturing is still an important employer although there are a large number of people employed in the The Development Forums are a valuable resource for the transport and storage sector. Department of Sustainability & Environment. Commencing Focusing on the manufacturing sector, the manufacture of in late May, there will be eight forums across metropolitan machinery and equipment is the largest employer representing Melbourne and Geelong, covering broadhectare land supply, more than a quarter of manufacturing employment in infi ll redevelopment and industrial land supply. To receive metropolitan Melbourne. In the West and North Industrial further information, please email your request and contact Nodes this type of employment is associated with the large car details to [email protected]

2 Department of Sustainability and Environment Research Matters rch M

The changing fl ows of interstate migration Just as levels of overseas migration have been infl uenced by the Further Information is available in the special bulletin, Interstate relative economic conditions of country of arrival and country Migration at a glance available on the Urban and Regional of departure, so have fl ows of people between Australian Research website by following the links to Demographics from states. At no time or nowhere has this been more apparent www.dse.vic.gov.au/research/urbanandregional than in over the last 15 years. Net interstate migration, Victoria, 1993-94 & 2004-05 Net interstate migration, Victoria, year ending 30 June 1987 to 2005

In the year to June 1994, Victoria lost nearly 30,000 people to the rest of Australia. The Nation was in the midst of an economic recession that was felt more strongly in Victoria than other states. Major restructuring of public and private sectors, manufacturing and energy generation industries, was occurring alongside depressed investment in normally high employment sectors such as building and construction. Fast forward eleven years to 2004-05 and Victoria’s economic and demographic situation is somewhat different. The State is emerging from a decade of strong economic growth with booming investment and employment growth in the building and construction sector. In the late 1990s Victoria recorded a net infl ux of people from interstate for the fi rst time in many years. The past two years have seen a return to interstate migration losses for Victoria, but at much lower level than in the past.

There has also been a turnaround in the historical fl ows of Source: ABS, DSE population between Victoria and some other States, while others have maintained the long standing patterns. Victoria has for a very long time recorded net losses of population to Population Change in Victoria DVD – Queensland but the magnitude of the losses has varied over free copies still available! time. Victoria was also known to lose population to New Victoria: Changing Faces, Changing Places is a short South Wales, but in recent years, and due in part to the large fi lm which looks at where our population has total numbers of people leaving New South Wales, Victoria come from, where we are heading and some of has become a net gainer of population from the north of the the challenges we face in planning for population Murray, and mainly from Sydney. growth or decline across Australia. The fi lm will appeal to anyone who has an interest in population issues; from The most recent ABS fi gures show that Victoria continues to students to professionals, government and the general public. be a net attractor of population from the ACT, South Australia, Tasmania and New South Wales. Victoria experienced small Free copies of Victoria: Changing Faces, Changing Places; net losses to Western Australia and the Northern Territory, but available in DVD or interactive CD-Rom format can be the stand-out fl ow is the continuing large loss of population to obtained by emailing your contact details to Queensland (more than 5,600 net loss from Victoria). [email protected]

Department of Sustainability and Environment Research Matters 3 Research Matters is a quarterly newsletter from Spatial Analysis and Research Department of Sustainability and Environment, Level 6, 8 Nicholson Street, East Melbourne, Victoria, 3000 Tel (03) 9637 9441 Fax (03) 9637 8111 Email [email protected] au Internet www.dse.vic.gov.au/research

Editors Chris Wight and Anne Barlow © DSE All Rights Reserved

Mill Park Housing Urban and Regional Research online Choice Survey The Spatial Analysis and Research web page can be accessed Spatial Analysis and Research recently embarked on a ‘Housing at www.dse.vic.gov.au/research/urbanandregional Choice Survey’. The study is being coordinated by Melinda Available now: Stella-Pearson, who has just completed a postgraduate diploma • The latest editions of Research Matters, Local Connections in urban planning at Melbourne University. Melinda has been employed by the Department as a vacation student during the and the Residential Land Bulletin summer university holidays. This employment came about • The 2005 Urban Development Program Report partly due to her initiative in approaching the Department’s • Melbourne at a Glance – A four page snapshot of Demographic Manager Jeremy Reynolds who was guest lecturing Population, Households and Employment in Melbourne, for her course. Melinda made known to Jeremy her interest in available to download in pdf from the publications page. being able to undertake further demographic research work. Coming soon: Preparing population forecasts for use by Victorian government • The Melbourne and Regional Atlases. agencies is one of the responsibilities of the Department. A key component of population forecasts is the choice of where to live made by individuals and households. These choices are often Did you know? related to a housing choice. In 2005 the Urban and Regional Research website received “In this particular study”, says Melinda, “we are interested in 156,241 views. The most popular pages viewed included gaining information about the housing choices made by people Victoria in Future 2004 and the Urban Development who live in a suburb that was developed a generation ago. By Program. examining housing and household change we hope to better understand the relationship between demographic change, household structure, housing decisions and the dwellings in Know Your Area which people reside”. Know Your Area can still be accessed via Demographic events, such as births, deaths, employment www.doi.vic.gov.au/knowyourarea or by visiting changes and children leaving the family home may trigger a www.dse.vic.gov.au/research. review of a household’s housing needs: where to live, what type of dwelling to live in and, possibly their tenure. Mill Park presents Recent data updates include: an opportunity to examine a particular aspect of this relationship. • Residential land development data for metropolitan councils Mill Park was developed and fi rst settled 25 to 30 years ago as for the December quarter 2005 a suburb for young families. Those families have now grown up • Unemployment data from Department of Employment and with many now reaching a critical stage. Children are leaving Workplace Relations for Victorian Statistical Local Areas for home to pursue their own lives while their parents are now December 2002 to September 2005. entering a new phase: retirement. • Local government expenditure and revenue 2004/2005 Melinda has distributed almost 1,000 questionnaires in the Mill fi nancial year data for Victorian Councils. Park area and is now analysing approximately 150 completed survey forms. If you would like to be notifi ed when new data sets are added to Know Your Area, join the mailing list by contacting Results of the survey will be published on the Demographic Christina Inbakaran on 9637 9570 or by email section of the Urban and Regional Research website at [email protected] www.dse.vic.gov.au/urbanandregional. For more information please contact Melinda Stella-Pearson on 9637 9760 or John O’Leary on 9637 9553.

Published by the Victorian Government Department of Sustainability and This publication may be of assistance to you but the State of Victoria and its Environment March 2006. employees do not guarantee that the publication is without fl aw of any kind © The State of Victoria Department of Sustainability and Environment 2006. or is wholly appropriate for your particular purposes and therefore disclaims all liability for any error, loss or other consequence which may arise from you Banner image courtesy of Tourism Victoria. relying on any information in this publication. This publication is copyright. No part may be reproduced by any process except in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968. Printed by XL Colour, 28–32 Bruce Street, Kensington 3031.

4 Department of Sustainability and Environment Research Matters Research Matters News from the Department of Sustainability and Environment’s Spatial Analysis and Research

ISSN: 1448-6881 Issue 38 June 2006 Housing Decisions of Empty Nesters The Spatial Analysis and Research Branch is responsible for preparing population projections for use by Victorian government agencies, local government and other stakeholders. A key component of population projections is the choice of where to live made by individuals and households. These choices are often related to a housing choice. One of the major changes facing families will be when the kids fi nally move out of home. In fact, this may be a long time after they fi rst move out of home, with adult children often returning home and leaving again several times. Nevertheless, when they are fi nally gone, the parent or parents may be left in a large family home in the suburbs, designed for bringing up children. Will these empty nesters move to the country or the coast or stay in the area where they currently live? Will they Empty nesters enjoying the freedom of not having kids at home downsize to a smaller, newer townhouse? Will they keep the family home so the kids and grandkids can come back at this stage, is no. There are many empty nesters who have to visit? decided to remain in the family home. The reasons essentially To better understand the housing decisions of empty nesters, revolve around emotional attachment, security and fi nances. the Spatial Analysis and Research Branch of the Department of Some are happy to sell up, but, invariably want to stay in the Sustainability and Environment employed Sweeney Research to same area unless there are compelling reasons to move to conduct a number of focus groups with people who had either just another area. Most can visualise their ideal new home and there become empty nesters or who are about to become empty nesters. is a strong consensus on the key features of their new home. It Main fi ndings: will be as maintenance free as possible, will be modern, on one Children leaving the parental home marks a time of freedom, level, with a small rear garden, three bedrooms, two bathrooms, spontaneity, time and satisfaction for empty nesters. Nesters a main open-plan living area plus a second smaller living area and don’t see the children departing as being a ‘life stage’ as such, good security. For most, an apartment is not in the consideration but rather a natural progression, another step forward. There set, nor is a retirement village. are other events which they believe will trigger real change… A ‘sea-change’ is not on the list for many – most simply cannot retirement, the loss of a partner or fi nancial diffi culties are afford it as they would still like a second ‘town’ house and this amongst these. is well beyond their means. This is a transitional time for this generation….children leaving, The Housing Decisions of Empty Nesters Report is now grandchildren being born, parents dying, retirement looming available online by following the links to demographics at and old-age knocking. Like any time of change, there comes www.dse.vic.gov.au/research/urbanandregional the fear of the unknown. The real concerns for this generation relate to fi nances, health and loneliness. Their new roles in life and the redefi ned structure at home have Inside not necessarily resulted in any spare cash. The progression from Regional Atlas Launch and Forums 2 child to adult has occurred – many costs associated with raising children diminished well before the children physically moved out. Future Summit - Brisbane 2006 3 While a number of changes have been brewing over time, the Urban Development Program Forums 4 reality is that they now have a house with no kids. The question is – are they ready to move on? To down-size? The answer, Resear Regional Atlas Launched Regional Matters. An Atlas of Regional Victoria 2005, was launched in April 2006. This whole of government publication provides a valuable resource for those seeking a more integrated understanding of social, economic and environmental issues within Victoria and its regions. It provides 140 pages of maps, charts and commentary depicting a broad range of issues under the following theme headings: • Changing Populations • Community Wellbeing • Servicing Communities • Industry and Skills • Water in a Dry Land similar relevance to those working in, or dealing with, regional Victoria. • Land and People • Coastal Development Regional Matters may be viewed online at: • Energy Choices www.dse.vic.gov.au/regionalmatters Since the fi rst edition was released in 2002, Regional Matters Hard copies of the publication may be obtained from has been used to inform policy, planning and research at Information Victoria (Phone 1300 366 356) or the DSE Planning all levels of government as well as being a general resource Information Centre (Phone 03 9637 8610). Price: $30.00 for community information. The current edition will be of (includes $2.73 GST) Regional Atlas Information Sessions Five information sessions were held in regional Victoria to promote the Regional Matters publication. The locations chosen for these sessions refl ected the diversity of regional Victoria. The fi rst session was held on April 26th at a conference centre outside Traralgon in the heart of the Latrobe Valley next to key regional infrastructure – airport, hospital and Princes Freeway. Nearby, the power stations at Hazelwood and LoyYang provide the majority of the State’s electricity. Because of this, one of the key topics reviewed at the presentation was “Energy Choices” which forms a chapter in Regional Matters.

The second regional information session was held on May 3rd in Ballarat opposite the Sovereign Hill complex. The goldfi elds history provides many of the tourism attractions of the region. Small goldfi elds towns such as Clunes have Diversity of infrastructure and lifestyles in the now become part of the Latrobe Valley peri-urban development surrounding Ballarat and this topic was highlighted in the presentation through maps showing Ballarat – a contemporary community with commuting patterns and rural population growth. a valuable heritage past that supports the tourism industry

2 Department of Sustainability and Environment Research Matters rch M

Warrnambool A fi nal information provided the location session, held in for the third information Melbourne on June session on May 10th. 14th gave a Melbourne- The local Surf Club gave based audience insight attendees a broad view into the issues and of the Southern Ocean, questions raised at the providing a suitable regional information backdrop for discussing sessions as well as Coastal lifestyles are Fiona McKenzie, Team Leader the topic of “Coastal an overview of the proving to be an attractor of the Regional Atlas Project, Development” which Regional Matters of population growth presents the Regional Matters forms a chapter within publication. publication to attendees at the Regional Matters. Warrnambool information session Copies of the Moving away from the larger presentations are regional cities, session four was available online at: held at Milawa in the King www.dse.vic.gov.au/regionalmatters Valley. Again the venue provided Special thanks to all those who assisted in making these a scenic regional backdrop of the sessions possible, in particular: Alan Freitag, Ian Voight, vineyards of the lower King Valley Kim McGough, Kevin Ritchie and Chris Halpin who gave for attendees. The Lindenwarrah introductory speeches; Lea Fisk and Simone Hoey who assisted estate was a suitable location with organisation and logistics. for discussing tourism and rural lifestyle development. Future Summit 2006 Autumn in the King Valley Creating a Better Future The Future Summit 2006 was held in Brisbane in May. Over The fi nal regional information session was held in Swan two days attendees enjoyed wide ranging discussion of Hill at the Nalder issues of the future from a variety of keynote speakers and photographics studio. panellists including: As well as having • Professor Ian Frazer, Director, Centre for Immunology, the scenic Murray University of Queensland – Australian of the Year. River outside, the • Mr Rui Chenggang, Director and Anchor, China Central venue provided an Television, People’s Republic of China, extensive range of • Professor Jonathon West, Director, Innovation Research regional photos from Institute, University of Tasmania around Australia, • The Hon Alexander Downer MP, Minister for Foreign Affairs. and highlighted the The Nalder Photographic development of the Gallery in Swan Hill Organised by the Australian Davos Connection (ADC), the Arts in regional Victoria. Future Summit sought to examine the opportunities and the Being located in an important irrigation region also provided threats that presently face Australia and the region under the an opportunity to discuss water and land issues which are theme “Re-inventing Australia in the Age of Asia”. highlighted in two of the Regional Matters chapters – “Water Discussions were held under six themes: in a Dry Land” and “Land and People”. • National Identity A total of more than 400 people attended the Regional • Public Health and International Security Matters information sessions in regional Victoria. Over • Adapting to Emerging Technologies 80 organisations were represented including 20 State • Sustaining Prosperity in a Warming World Government Agencies, 35 Local Government Areas, private • Talent for a Knowledge Economy businesses, peak bodies, non-government organisations and • The Globalisation of Asia members of the general community. You can fi nd out more about the ADC and the Future Summit 2006 and also register to receive the report from the summit at this website: www.futuresummit.org

Department of Sustainability and Environment Research Matters 3 Research Matters is a quarterly newsletter from Spatial Analysis and Research Department of Sustainability and Environment, Level 6, 8 Nicholson Street, East Melbourne, Victoria, 3000 Tel (03) 9637 9441 Fax (03) 9637 8111 Email [email protected] au Internet www.dse.vic.gov.au/research

Editors Chris Wight and Anne Barlow © DSE All Rights Reserved

Urban Development Residential Land Bulletin The Residential Land Bulletin has recently been expanded to a 12 page publication. The aim of the Bulletin is to provide Program Forums an accurate and clear representation of the land development The Development Forums for the 2006 Urban Development process by monitoring a number of ‘pipeline’ indicators from Program (UDP) are now complete. The UDP is one of the the planning application stage through to dwelling approvals. primary mechanisms for determining levels of supply, demand The bulletin now also includes estates sales activity in Growth and adequacy of residential and industrial land across Area municipalities sourced from Oliver Research and metropolitan Melbourne and the Geelong region. lots sales information by Growth Area regions. For further information please email [email protected] Aside from our regular stakeholder engagement and information dissemination, this year the UDP has a new Urban and Regional Research online emphasis – the UDP information will be used by the soon to The Spatial Analysis and Research web page can be accessed be established Growth Area Authority in its work of advising at www.dse.vic.gov.au/research/urbanandregional government about land supply. Available now: It is therefore critical that the information included in this, • The latest editions of Research Matters, the Residential Land and each subsequent Urban Development Program, refl ects Bulletin & Local Connections the current status of land supply within each of the growth • The 2006 Urban Development Program Forum areas. After extensive consultation earlier this year with Presentations the development industry, local government and service • Interstate Migration Special Bulletin 2006 providers, the results of these meetings were presented at the • Regional Matters – www.dse.vic.gov.au/regionalmatters Development Forums for confi rmation, and identifi cation of site • Sustainability Analysis – new content specifi c issues. Coming soon: Each of these Forums had good representation from a wide • The Melbourne Atlas variety of stakeholder groups representing differing areas of • Towns in Time Analysis land use planning and development industries, and provided useful feedback which will be incorporated into the 2006 Urban Development Program. Know Your Area The Urban Development Program Report, and on-line Know Your Area can still be accessed via information, will be available in the second half of this year. www.doi.vic.gov.au/knowyourarea or by visiting For further information, email your request to www.dse.vic.gov.au/research. The product will be moving [email protected], or keep an to the DSE website in July/August and our customers will be eye on the Urban and Regional Research section of the DSE notifi ed via email. website www.dse.vic.gov.au/urbandevelopmentprogram. Recent data updates include: • Residential land development data for metropolitan councils for the March quarter 2006 • Unemployment data from Department of Employment and Workplace Relations for March 2006. • Water Consumption data for metropolitan councils from March 2005 onwards to December 2005. If you would like to be notifi ed when new data sets are added to Know Your Area join the mailing list by contacting Christina Inbakaran on 9637 9570 or by email [email protected]

Published by the Victorian Government Department of Sustainability and This publication may be of assistance to you but the State of Victoria and its Environment June 2006. employees do not guarantee that the publication is without fl aw of any kind © The State of Victoria Department of Sustainability and Environment 2006. or is wholly appropriate for your particular purposes and therefore disclaims all liability for any error, loss or other consequence which may arise from you Banner image courtesy of Tourism Victoria. relying on any information in this publication. This publication is copyright. No part may be reproduced by any process except in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968. Printed by XL Colour, 28–32 Bruce Street, Kensington 3031.

4 Department of Sustainability and Environment Research Matters Research Matters News from the Department of Sustainability and Environment’s Spatial Analysis and Research

ISSN: 1448-6881 Issue 39 September 2006 Melbourne Atlas

What’s better than a day at the footy? This was the question posed in a recent article in The Age announcing the release of the Melbourne Atlas – a new publication providing the fi rst comprehensive picture of how Melbourne is changing and the major trends that have shaped Melbourne over the last 50 years. The Melbourne Atlas contributes to a better understanding of issues affecting Melbourne through spatial analysis of demographic, economic, environmental and social change. The fi rst of its kind for Melbourne, it presents a wide range of current and historical data, some going as far back as 1951, from over 170 data sources in over 498 maps, charts and graphs. The Atlas is an important tool for better understanding how this busy, complex and connected city functions – a pre- To win a copy of the Melbourne Atlas simply read more requisite for steering and managing its growth. about the publication on page 2 of Research Matters So what is better than a day at the footy? According to and email the answer to the following question to an ABS survey of Attendance at Cultural Venues and [email protected]: Events, in 2002 visitors to cinemas, Botanic gardens, • Since 1945, the population of Melbourne has: Zoos or aquariums and libraries each outnumbered those a) doubled, b) trebled, c) remained the same. attending football matches. Estates attract families One of our areas of interest at Spatial Analysis and Research is development in growth area estates. A survey conducted by Oliver Hume Research in conjunction with DSE has found that: Customer Survey • The majority of purchasers in growth areas were owner- Thanks to the 600 people who responded to our occupiers upgrading to a second home. customer survey. You have provided us with many • Most buyers were families, with the purchaser aged between ideas to improve our products and services. The 25 and 49 years. consultants are currently completing their fi nal • Around two thirds of households had two cars. The majority report which we will place on our website. of purchasers relied on the car as the primary method of travel to employment and travelled greater than 11 km to work. • Over half of all buyers showed a preference for single storey houses. The preference for double storey houses was greater in the South East than the North West. • When buying in a growth area estate, buyers considered Inside proximity to childcare and/or education as most important. Melbourne Atlas: How has Melbourne changed? 2 Other factors such as proximity to shops, friends/relatives, transport, workplace and their current residence were also Demographic Consultations in North-west Victoria 3 considered to be important. What is the population of my area? 4 For further information on this survey please email [email protected] Resear Melbourne Atlas How has Melbourne changed? Melbourne’s population has increased by 2 million people and trebled in size since 1945 with post-Second World War suburbs making up over two thirds of metropolitan Melbourne. In contrast to the post World War II baby boom, the city is now adapting to historically low fertility rates and an ageing population. In general, Melbournians are now more culturally diverse, partnering later, better educated, more affl uent, more mobile, living longer and staying actively engaged in work and recreation for longer than 50 years ago. Melbourne has seen signifi cant expansion of choice in education and in personal services - from shopping through to entertainment and eating out. Melbourne has experienced a geographical change in the patterns of equality and accessibility, with variations across Melbourne in income, employment and access to services, and areas of need. Physically, Melbourne is predominately residential in nature and is still mainly a city of owner-occupied separate one and two-storey houses. Changes in housing, retail, commerce, Who is it for? industry and transport have all infl uenced the pace and scale of The Melbourne Atlas is a useful tool for people in government, post-war development. Melbourne has seen signifi cant changes the private sector, research and education who are interested in in employment over the last 30 years - employment growth the factors shaping Melbourne. Its sister publication, Regional has been faster than population growth since the mid 1990s, Matters, an Atlas of Regional Victoria, was launched in April with job losses in manufacturing have been offset by growth 2006 and has proved a valuable resource for policy makers in service jobs. Financial, business and property services have across a range of government departments and policy areas. concentrated in the inner city, while service and manufacturing jobs have moved outwards. What does it look like? Information is compiled into 8 chapters: Melbourne’s As industry moves outwards, inner suburbs are being reshaped Development, Melbourne’s People, Housing, Working, Living, and wealthy households are now occupying suburbs that Equity, Learning and Sustaining the Environment. The Atlas previously housed industrial workers and factories. Melbourne’s comes with a handy Reference Maps booklet to help you middle ring suburbs are undergoing a different shift with interpret the maps, along with a Melbourne Atlas Timeline ageing populations and household changes as children move poster of events that have shaped Melbourne. out of the family home and creating their own households, leaving their parents as ‘empty nesters’. Outer areas tend to For more information on the Melbourne Atlas, be the domain of families with young children. Overall, the how to get your copy or to view it online visit number of people per household has been steadily decreasing www.dse.vic.gov.au\melbourneatlas leading to a situation where household growth rates are twice or call the DSE customer service centre on 131 186. that of population growth rates in many parts of Melbourne. The Melbourne Atlas is an important reminder that while The Melbourne Atlas includes a timeline poster of overall, the quality of life in Melbourne has changed largely for Melbourne events that have occurred over the last 100 the better, Melbourne’s size, spread and affl uence also has a years. The poster will be available at the Government cost. Melbourne has a relatively large ecological footprint, and Expo at the Royal Melbourne Show. Please email SAR at measures to conserve water, increase energy effi ciency and [email protected] if you would like reduce greenhouse gas emissions are becoming more important a copy of the timeline. as Melbourne continues to grow. Local Government Research Network (LGRN) The Local Government Research Network (LGRN), coordinated The LGRN web page has provided a useful forum for sharing by Spatial Analysis and Research, continues to endeavour to Council projects and housing strategies for some time. The list support links between local government, research and policy. of sustainability and transport projects and strategies has been The June 2006 Issue of Local Connections welcomed a variety updated. Councils are encouraged to continue emailing details of of contributions. Articles covered such issues as the Annual housing strategies, council projects, sustainability strategies and Community Survey in Maribyrnong and Moonee Valley’s transport strategies to [email protected]. Intergrated Transport Plan. See www.dse.vic.gov.au/lgrn for For further information please contact Christina Inbakaran on the present and past editions. 9637 9570 or Christine Kilmartin on 9637 9629.

2 Department of Sustainability and Environment Research Matters rch M Muster Demographic Consultations extend to North-western Victoria

To gain local knowledge as part of the process of updating include weekenders (people who work in Melbourne during the Victorian in Future (VIF) population projections, staff from the week, but who have another dwelling in Regional Victoria, Spatial Analysis and Research are visiting Victorian councils. where they live at the weekend), and children, whose parents In the last week of July, Senior Demographer, John O’Leary are divorced or separated, who live on a regular basis in the visited the North West of the State. In addition to the DSE home of both parents. regional offi ces in Bendigo and Mildura, John visited the Shires of Buloke, Campaspe, Gannawarra and Loddon, and the Rural Fluctuating seasonal populations Cities of Mildura and Swan Hill. Following are a few of the Another dimension to changing populations is the issues of important issues being raised in this part of the State. seasonal workers. Many towns on the Murray have large seasonal work forces, a large itinerant population, large holiday The spatial implications of water trading rights populations and in some case large weekend populations. Water trading is the buying and selling of water entitlements Councils with such populations, maintain that services and or allocations. It could be expected that there will be funds are not being provided to cope with the actual, as distinct implications for the size of future local populations as water from the offi cially measured, population in these places. Hodi rights are traded from “low value” uses in parts of the Shires of Beauliv from Robinvale Resource Centre gave John a tour Gannawarra and Loddon to “higher value” uses in areas close of Robinvale, where people were living in caravans in back to the Murray River in the Swan Hill and Mildura municipalities. yards on residential blocks; in vineyards some workers lived in The development of olive and almond plantations, especially “pickers’ huts”. With many of these residents not part of the between Boundary Bend and Robinvale in the Rural City of offi cial town population, obtaining funding to provide adequate Swan Hill, and the all year around labour required to maintain housing and services is diffi cult. these plantations illustrates the spatial changes that may be Despite the importance of these issues both overseas, as well as brought about by water trading rights. in Victoria, we are not unaware of any work being undertaken Mobile populations overseas on these issues in Australia. The ABS has in the past undertaken some work on measuring peak populations The diffi culty in counting a fl uctuating and at times mobile in Australia. An estimated measure of peak populations in population, and the implications of this on grant allocations, Victorian towns was included in the recently released Regional infrastructure planning and service planning was another issue Atlas (Regional Matters: An Atlas of Regional Victoria). affecting North Western Victoria. The offi cial Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) estimates of population, the Estimated Your experiences Resident Population (ERP), are based on the concept of “usual Have you found that traditional population measures are residence” where each person has a basic attachment to a not always the best measure for making decisions about particular dwelling, where they reside on a permanent basis. planning and service delivery? We would like to hear from Determining a person’s usual residence is becoming less you. While ERP will always remain the offi cial measure of straightforward as people often have more than one population in Australia, we would be interested in hearing of usual residence. This view was reinforced by the personal practical examples where funding and/or planning decisions circumstances of the council staff that John met in his regional could have benefi ted from alternative measures of population visits. Many staff live in one location during the week, but and proposals for how such alternative populations could be have another location where they live at the weekend. The measured. Please direct comments to John O’Leary (email emergence of multiple residences begs the question of john.o’[email protected] or phone 03 9637 9553). A whether ERP is always the best measure for planning and grant summary of feedback on this topic will be published in a future allocation purposes. Others who may fall into this category edition of Research Matters.

New housing in Koondrook

Department of Sustainability and Environment Research Matters 3 Research Matters is a quarterly newsletter from Spatial Analysis and Research Department of Sustainability and Environment, Level 6, 8 Nicholson Street, East Melbourne, Victoria, 3000 Tel (03) 9637 9441 Fax (03) 9637 8111 Email [email protected] au Internet www.dse.vic.gov.au/research

Editors Chris Wight and Anne Barlow © DSE All Rights Reserved

What is the population Urban and Regional Research online The Spatial Analysis and Research web page can be accessed of my area? at www.dse.vic.gov.au/research/urbanandregional Available now: While most users of annual population estimates understand • The Melbourne Atlas 2006 that the offi cial Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) fi gures • The latest editions of Research Matters, the Residential are produced using a model and a range of annually collected Land Bulletin & Local Connections indicator data, some are not as aware of the annual revisions • Regional Matters – www.dse.vic.gov.au/regionalmatters that occur to these fi gures. Contrary to common belief, the • Southwest Sustainable Settlements – Forum 4 total, offi cial population of any given area, at any given time, is Camperdown, July 2006 not set in stone. Did you know? There are two key aspects to population data that all users In 2005 the Urban and Regional Research website received should recognise: 156,241 views. However in the six months to June we have • Revised population estimates are published annually already received 123,809 views. • Revised population estimates are published after each Census (every 5 years) Please email any comments or suggestions to regarding the website to [email protected]. Annual revised estimates Every year, when the ABS publishes their annual population estimates for the most recent year, they also revise their population estimates (Estimated Resident Population, or ERPs). These revisions can be quite signifi cant and change the annual growth quite dramatically. The following table shows annual revisions for the Victorian total ERP over the last few years. 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Preliminary ERP 4,828,968 4,872,538 4,917,394 4,972,779 5,022,346 Preliminary growth rate (%) 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 Revised ERP 4,822,663 4,857,228 4,911,425 4,962,970 nya Revised growth rate (%) 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 nya Source ABS published ERPs Census revised estimates Offi cial ERPs are also revised again, once the next Census has been taken. The following table demonstrates the difference in growth between 1996 and 2001 for a range of geographical areas in Victoria. It compares the growth rate using the preliminary (pre-Census) and revised (post-Census) fi gures. This clearly shows the potential for variation, from quite small (2.4% for Victoria) to quite large (89% for regional Victoria).

1996 ERP 2001 ERP Growth 2001 ERP 1996-2001 Absolute difference % difference (Final) (Prelim) 1996-2001 (Revised) growth between revised and between revised and (Prelim) (Revised) preliminary growth preliminary growth Victoria 4,560,155 4,828,968 268,813 4,822,663 262,508 –6,305 Ú 2.4% Melbourne 3,283,278 3,521,957 238,679 3,488,750 205,472 –33,207 Ú 14% Regional Victoria 1,276,877 1,307,011 30,134 1,333,913 57,036 +26,902 Ò 89% Brimbank 155,584 166,802 11,218 169,839 14,255 +3,037 Ò 27% Melbourne 42,110 57,248 17,532 52,117 14,401 –5,131 Ú 29% Bass Coast 21,543 23,880 2,337 25,683 4,140 +1,803 Ò 77% Moyne 16,288 15,886 -402 15,745 -543 –141 Ú 46% Source ABS published ERPs So what numbers do I use? We strongly recommend that when using population data you continue to use the latest published ABS fi gures. However we urge you to remember that these estimates are just that, estimates, and are subject to change and revision. More important than focussing on the exact numbers is to consider broader issues such as medium to long term rates of growth or decline and the underlying reasons for that population change.

Published by the Victorian Government Department of Sustainability and This publication may be of assistance to you but the State of Victoria and its Environment September 2006. employees do not guarantee that the publication is without fl aw of any kind © The State of Victoria Department of Sustainability and Environment 2006. or is wholly appropriate for your particular purposes and therefore disclaims Banner image courtesy of Tourism Victoria. all liability for any error, loss or other consequence which may arise from you relying on any information in this publication. This publication is copyright. No part may be reproduced by any process except in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968. Printed by XL Colour, 28–32 Bruce Street, Kensington 3031.

4 Department of Sustainability and Environment Research Matters Research Matters News from the Department of Sustainability and Environment’s Spatial Analysis and Research

ISSN: 1448-6881 Issue 40 December 2006

that it is often State Government agencies Population Matters that have the most day The Australia New Zealand Population Workshop to day dealings with – Christchurch Local Governments The 29th Australian New Zealand Population Workshop was rather than ABS, and held in Christchurch, New Zealand in the last week of October. hence it is usually State The workshop is the annual meeting of demographers working Government Agencies in State and Territory Government agencies, Commonwealth that have to defend Government agencies and Statistics New Zealand. the offi cial population estimates published Given both Australian and New Zealand Censuses were held by ABS. This is often during 2006, the main agenda items were Census related and hard to do, when it is in particular around the issue of what agencies could expect not clear how ABS has from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) during 2007. arrived at these offi cial The three main points that the State Government agencies population estimates stressed to ABS was that: at the LGA or SLA • State, Territory and Local government level data matters level. • ABS processes need to be more transparent Comparing apples • there is concern over the potential confusion when Census with apples data is released by usual residence rather than place of Another major issue enumeration. relating to release of The importance of local estimates the 2006 Census results The ABS has in the past treated the accuracy of the national that was discussed total population fi gure as the highest priority while State, at the workshop was Territory and Local Government Area statistics were given a the decision of ABS to lower priority. However, as the State Government agencies release Census data have been pointing out to ABS for some time, under the on a place of usual Christchurch Cathedral Commonwealth State Financial Arrangements ACT 1999, residence rather than Commonwealth funding of State and Territory Governments place of enumeration as the main form of data dissemination is based on the offi cial population estimates released by ABS. in the basic community profi les. In the past, Census data has Ensuring the national population estimates are correct does been released on a place of enumeration basis. Although, the not results in any changes in funding. However, incorrect State change to usual residence is welcomed, the State and Territory and Territory estimates can have major fi nancial implications for Government agency representatives advised ABS that there will State and Territory Governments. Similarly, a large proportion be great confusion when the 2006 Census results are released of Commonwealth and State Government funding of Local and many users incorrectly start to compare 2006 place of usual Governments is based on the offi cial Local Government residence data with 2001 place of enumeration data for the Area population estimates published by ABS. Incorrect LGA same spatial area. It was stressed that ABS will need to educate population estimates can have major funding implications for users in the difference between place of usual residence and Local Government. place of enumeration data before the 2006 Census results are released. Transparency Issues relating to the transparency of the process ABS use to calculate some of their key data were also discussed. One Inside example is how the ABS adjusts Census counts (or enumerated Atlases win PIA (Vic) Award 2 populations on Census night) by Local Government Area (LGA) to obtain Estimated Resident Population (the offi cial measure Regional demographic consultations 3 of population in Australia) as at 30th June in a Census year. While ABS releases details of these adjustments at a State level, Customer survey feedback 4 they have never publicly released them at an LGA or Statistical Local Area (SLA) level. The State Government agencies argued Resear Melbourne & Regional Atlases recognised with Planning Institute Australia (Vic) 2006 Awards For Planning Excellence

The Melbourne and Regional Atlases were recently recognised by the Victorian Division of the Planning Institute of Australia (PIA) annual awards as unique, the panel of judges were unaware of any equivalent atlases in other parts of the world. Submitted in the category of “Planning Scholarship Research & Teaching” the products were unanimously voted as winners. The Atlases were commended for providing planners and policy makers with an important resource – a resource which encourages them to grapple with emerging issues in creative ways.

The Atlases encourage people to think spatially and provide the basis for a more informed debate about the future of Melbourne and Victoria. Presented as a compilation of maps, charts and commentary, the Atlases also act as a directory highlighting the research capabilities of the Spatial Analysis and Research Branch.

The awards were the culmination of the annual Planning Week program organised by PIA. Most team members were able to attend the Awards ceremony on the Friday evening of Planning Week and a most enjoyable evening was had by all, (as the photo shows).

To view the Atlases online visit: www.dse.vic.gov.au/research/urbanandregional To purchase the Atlases: DSE, Planning & Information Centre, Ground Floor 8 Nicholson Street, East Melbourne Tel: (03) 9637 8610, Email: [email protected] For assistance with maps or data in a format which suits you, contact: Regional Atlas – fi [email protected] Melbourne Atlas – [email protected] Enquiries – Tel. (03) 9637 9441

Melbourne Atlas Competition Winners! Congratulations to Melissa Ashby from AV Jennings Ltd, Siva Sivagnanam from the Building Commission and to RMIT student, Melanie Hearne; the winners of our Melbourne Atlas competition. Our lucky winners will receive an A3 copy of the Melbourne Atlas. Thanks to all those who entered.

2 Department of Sustainability and Environment Research Matters rch M Come rain, hail or shine (and snow!) Regional population consultations continue… Like the proverbial postman, DSE Demographic Researcher, Dee Johnson travelled through snow, rain, sleet and hail to consult with Shire and the . It was well worth the effort with information gathered adding to the story of population change throughout Victoria. The input from consultations will inform a review of the State Government Population and Household projections by the Spatial Analysis and Research Branch. Other Councils recently visited in more temperate conditions, include Bendigo, Central Goldfi elds, Geelong, Corangamite, Colac Otway and Moorabool. Population infl uences are proving to be many and varied with a few interesting ones highlighted below. Doctors and population The shortage of doctors in regional Victoria is an issue highlighted in Regional Matters: An Atlas of regional Victoria 2005. Movement of older people from country towns to regional centres with medical facilities is a common trend. In the a new Rural and Regional Medical School has been approved at Deakin University. This will have impacts right across regional Victoria as the innovative program aims to produce GPs and specialists committed and skilled to practice in country areas. This could infl uence the timing and size of migration of older people out of rural areas as well as making towns more attractive to young families wanting the Arrival conditions Shire of Pyrenees. security of local medical services. Photo: Andre Dalton, Town Planner, Shire of Pyrenees ‘Seachange’/‘Treechange’ housing market is tight and alternative lifestyle farmers. Snake Home of the original ‘Seachange’, the infl ow of baby boomers Valley is a popular tree change location. cashing in on property equity continues in the City of Greater Geelong. The area provides lifestyle features coupled with Are these issues impacting on permanent or temporary cheaper house prices than Melbourne and good employment populations in your Shire or City? If so in what way? opportunities. The Shire of Pyrenees is also attracting Please direct comments to Dee Johnson ‘treechangers’ including people moving from Ballarat where the (email [email protected]).

Local Government Research Network & Local Connections

The Local Government Research Network (LGRN) is • Local Area Planning Support Program – DVC coordinated by Spatial Analysis and Research and endeavours • Buyers in Growth Area Estates – DSE to support links between local government, research and The LGRN web page has provided a useful forum for sharing policy. The December 2006 Issue of Local Connections, Council projects and housing strategies for some time. The list available at www.dse.vic.gov.au/lgrn, welcomed a variety of of sustainability and transport projects and strategies continues contributions. We have also resumed a hard copy version of to be updated every quarter. In the meantime, Councils are the document. Articles ranged from: encouraged to continue emailing details of datasets, any issues • Social Impact Assessment Policy in Frankston Councils face, and the details of the nominated contact person • Development Bulletin – for housing strategies, council projects, sustainability strategies • local area planning and transport strategies. For further information please email • Planning to Age Well in Whitehorse [email protected]

Department of Sustainability and Environment Research Matters 3 Research Matters is a quarterly newsletter from Spatial Analysis and Research Department of Sustainability and Environment, Level 6, 8 Nicholson Street, East Melbourne, Victoria, 3000 Tel (03) 9637 9441 Fax (03) 9637 8111 Email [email protected] au Internet www.dse.vic.gov.au/research

Editors Chris Wight and Anne Barlow © DSE All Rights Reserved

Client Survey Feedback Thank you again to those people who participated in the Spatial Analysis and Research Branch Client Survey. Your feedback Residential Land Bulletin Survey indicates that we are providing a good service; we intend to To help us evaluate recent changes to the Residential Land build on this base and will continue to improve our research Bulletin, a survey examining the usefulness of the content and publications. A summary of the key fi ndings is now and the overall presentation/layout of the document available on our website at www.dse.vic.gov.au/research/ was sent to our mailing list. We received 110 responses urbanandregional and follow the links to Research Matters. including detailed comments relating to how the document meets stakeholder requirements. The 2006 census results will start to be published around mid 2007, with most of the data on occupation and industry of The majority (85%) of survey respondents had subscribed employment, household structure and internal migration not to the Residential Land Bulletin for more than a year. While coming out until November / December 2007. We intend to a third of respondents accessed the Bulletin via the web provide an expanded range of products and services refl ecting most people (89%) received a hard copy version. Over 80% both the increased demand for existing products, together with of respondents found the quality of data useful and that your ideas for new ones. the bulletin assisted with their work. Survey respondents found the content of the bulletin useful and most rated the We have already commenced work on the geographical content for all sections to be concordances to update the Towns in Time and Suburbs in Time good or excellent. databases to 2006. Almost as soon as the 2006 census results are published this updated data will appear on our website. Feedback on the Bulletin Your feedback shows that there is a strong increase in demand layout was positive, with the for such local area data. majority of respondents (over As soon as the second release census data is published on 80%) rating it as good or internal migration, we will commence a new set of Victoria in excellent. More than 30% Future population projections. But these must be based on a of survey participants did good understanding of trends and their drivers as well as an not give feedback on the appreciation of foreseeable local changes. So before fi nalising online PDF versions which projections, we will produce research reports on change would correlate to the lower around themes such as ‘seachange’, ‘treechange’ and internal numbers of respondents who migration. We will also consult with local government to build access the bulletin via the local change factors into the projections. web. Over a third of survey respondents identifi ed as As census release time draws closer and we have a fi rmer view operating within multiple about resources and priorities, we will provide a more concise sectors while the largest timetable of products and services. single sector was land development Know Your Area and town planning. Further comments relating to Know Your Area (KYA) is an online database that provides improvements can still be emailed to information about the people of an area and how they live. [email protected]. KYA can be accessed via www.dse.vic.gov.au/research. Recent quarterly data updates include: Published by the Victorian Government Department of Sustainability and • Residential land development data for Metropolitan councils to Environment December 2006. September 2006. • Unemployment data from Department of Employment and © The State of Victoria Department of Sustainability and Environment 2006. Workplace Relations to June 2006. Banner image courtesy of Tourism Victoria. • Water Consumption data for Metropolitan councils to June 2006. This publication is copyright. No part may be reproduced by any process except in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968. We are implementing some minor enhancements to the database such as improved navigation and charting functionality. This publication may be of assistance to you but the State of Victoria and its If you would like to be notifi ed when new data sets are added employees do not guarantee that the publication is without fl aw of any kind or is wholly appropriate for your particular purposes and therefore disclaims to Know Your Area or if there are any further improvements that all liability for any error, loss or other consequence which may arise from you you would like please contact Christina Inbakaran on 9637 9570 relying on any information in this publication. or email [email protected]. Printed by XL Colour, 28–32 Bruce Street, Kensington 3031.

4 Department of Sustainability and Environment Research Matters