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The Relationship between Religious Persuasion and Climate Change Attitudes in Australia

Mark Morrisona,b, Roderick Duncanb,c, Kevin Partona,b and Chris Sherleya

a School of Management and , Charles Sturt University b Institute for Land, Water and Society, Charles Sturt University c School of Accounting and Finance, Charles Sturt University

Contributed paper prepared for presentation at the 57th AARES Annual Conference, Sydney, New South Wales, 5th-8th February, 2013

© Copyright 2013 by Authors’ names.

All reserved. Readers may make verbatim copies of this document for non- commercial purposes by any means, provided that this copyright notice appears on all such copies.

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The Relationship between Religious Persuasion and Climate Change Attitudes in Australia

Mark Morrisona,b, Roderick Duncanb,c, Kevin Partona,b and Chris Sherleya a School of Management and Marketing, Charles Sturt University b Institute for Land, Water and Society, Charles Sturt University c School of Accounting and Finance, Charles Sturt University

Abstract

Previous has demonstrated that religious persuasion can have an impact on environmental attitudes, however less research of this kind has focused on the relationship between religious persuasion and climate change attitudes. Using a survey of 1,927 Australians we examined links between membership of five religious groupings and climate change attitudes, as well as membership of climate change household segments that differ in their acceptance of human induced climate change and the need for policy responses. Differences were found across religious groups in terms of their in human induced climate change, consensus among scientists, their own efficacy and the need for policy responses. Using ordinal regression, some of these differences were shown to be due to sociodemographic factors, , environmental or political . However, significant effects due to religious persuasion remained, and they range from medium to large in size. Options for responding to these effects are discussed.

Keywords: , climate change, segmentation, political support

Introduction

Views on climate change and policy relating to climate change in the Australian population are extremely diverse. In forming their views, people are influenced by many factors, including both situational variables and their own socio-economic and socio-political status. In this paper we focus on religious persuasion as a potential determinant of attitudes to climate change and climate change policy.

Research conducted, principally in the United States (US) and Europe, has indicated that religious persuasion is a key factor to take into account in developing climate change policy and designing messages about policy. In the US, a number of studies have revealed that there is a conservative effect, under which those who have a strong literal interpretation of the bible have a lower concern about the environment and a stronger belief in their own efficacy in controlling outcomes (eg Guth et al. 1995; Hand and van Liere 1984). This effect has a considerable influence when measuring the overall level of of climate change and the perceived need for policy.

The literature reveals that there are important differences between countries in the influence religious persuasion has on ways of looking at climate change issues (Tjernstron and Tietenberg 2008). This points to a need to consider the religious issues in their

1 particular country . There has been little given to these issues in Australia, and consequently one objective of the current paper is to examine how religious make-up affects attitudes to climate change and climate change policy.

We conducted an online survey of 1,927 Australians, designed to identify household segments based on the developed by Maibach et al. (2011) as well as highlight differences in Australia between different religious groups. We examine responses across five religious groupings (Atheist/Agnostic/No Religion, Buddhist, Jewish, Christian Non- Literalists and Christian Literalists). We find substantive effects on climate change beliefs based on religious persuasion. For two of the religious groupings (Atheist/Agnostic/No Religion and Jewish) the differences in beliefs can be explained by either sociodemographics, environmental attitudes, knowledge or political persuasion), however for two of the other groupings (Buddhist and Christian Literalists) the effects cannot be explained by these variables alone.

Review of the Literature

Previous research has cast the relationship between and attitudes to climate change from various perspectives, ranging from theoretical to pragmatic. From a theoretical point of view, based on an examination of teachings of nine major , Posas (2007) argued strongly that religions from Bahá’í to Buddism and from to Christianity should be able to influence their members to bring an ethical dimension to the climate change issue. This discussion permits an approach to the debate that is based on and is other-person centred, and he expects that actions by these religious groups will enable climate change policy to move forward more rapidly. Posas concludes that there could be a much greater role for religion in the in solving the climate crisis.

In contrast, despite there now a significant body of , empirical research on the relationship between religion and environmental research is divided on this central issue. This branch of the research has its root in White’s (1967) contention that there is a link between a Judeo-Christian perspective and a desire for dominion over . This perspective has its basis in Genesis 1:26, ‘Then God said, “Let us make mankind in our image, in our likeness, so that they may rule over the fish in the sea and the birds in the sky, over the livestock and all the wild animals, and over all the creatures that move along the ground.”’.

The empirical work has looked more closely within Christianity to show that there are distinctly different Christian perspectives (Hand and van Liere 1984). Even within Christian circles there are opposing themes of “anthropomorphic dominance” and “stewardship of nature”. Hand and van Liere (1984) showed that in the US, members of denominations such as Baptists and Mormons were more likely to adhere to the first, while Episcopalians and Methodists the second. Moreover, it is these world views that seem to determine whether an individual would support environmental policy. In an extension of this research, Greeley (1993) examined Christian in the US more closely and discovered that support for spending on the environment correlates with a gracious image of God and with being Catholic, and that a rigid political and religious view is related to a lack of environmental concern. However, he found no significant difference between Judeo-Christians in general and other religions on environmental concern.

Greeley (1993) and Kanagy and Nelson (1995) also pointed to the problem of focusing only on religious variables as for degree of environmental concern. Their studies

2 showed that you could obtain significant results on the relationship between Christian perspective and dominion over nature if you excluded other controlling factors, but as soon as you included cultural, social and demographic influences, these other factors became better explanators than the different Christian beliefs. In other words, there is a complex relationship between religious persuasion, socio-demographics and environmental concern, and taking into account this complexity leads to the conclusion that “religious individuals – even those identified as conservative – are no less likely than non-religious individuals to identify themselves as environmentalists” (Kanagy and Nelson 1995, p. 43.)

Hence, Greeley (1993) and Kanagy and Nelson (1995) effectively conclude that the association between a Christian perspective and dominion over nature is spurious. It is merely a reflection of political conservatism, or some other socio-demographic variable (Wolkomir et al. 1997; Boyd 1999). However, a thorn remained in the side of this position. One consistent result from US studies is in accord with White’s thesis, and shows that those adhering more closely to a literal biblical viewpoint are less likely to support pro-environmental action (Guth et al. 1995). In addition, Guth et al. (1995) showed that US “secularists” generally support environmental policy, while Catholics are in the middle ground between the above extremes. These results support the contention that a more appropriate conclusion is that religious factors are indirectly causal rather than spurious.

Similar results were discovered more recently by Truelove and Joireman (2009), who developed two scales: a Christian orthodoxy scale, and a biblical literal scale. Their thesis was that there could be either a “social-altruistic” effect that would have Christians supportive of environmental policy, or a “lower-knowledge-of-the-biosphere” effect that would produce the reverse effect. Then, from survey results, they discovered that Christian orthodoxy and biblical literalism were inversely associated with all measures of environmental behaviour, and that the lower-knowledge-of-the-biosphere effect was dominant. This result again supports the that we need to take into account mediating variables (in this case and knowledge) when assessing the relationship between religion and the environment.

The impact of respondents’ scientific knowledge has also been shown to be critical in other studies in Sweden (Biel and Nilsson 2005) and Britain (Hayes and Marangudakis 2001). In addition, in Germany, Schahn and Holzer (1990) showed that scientific knowledge can act as a variable mediating the relationship between religious, socio-demographic and environmental variables.

Bord et al. (1998) showed the importance of different levels of public knowledge about different environmental issues. The US public had good awareness of environmental issues generally, but not of climate change. Climate change was not a ‘front-burner’ issue, and the only forms of global climate change policy that would be supported would imply no change in their lifestyles and would not cost them significantly.

In a paper that attempted to reconcile the previous empirical work, Sherkat and Ellison (2007) used structural equation modelling based on survey data to estimate the effect of various beliefs and socio-demographic variables on environmental orientation. Significant negative impacts on both political and private environmental were found for political conservatism, biblical inerrancy (political activism only), conservative Protestantism, rurality and southern (US) location. Significant positive impacts were found for belief in problem seriousness, stewardship, and level. Sherkat and Ellison (2007, p. 83) conclude that: “Future studies investigating the connections between religious factors and a host of other

3 political concerns would benefit from adapting a more comprehensive view of religious influences, and attending to nuances of political beliefs and connections.”

A similar conclusion appears to apply to more qualitative research. Shipper (2010) considers that belief systems are rarely considered when examining societal risks including climate change. One qualitative study that does consider the importance of religious framing was conducted by Wardekker et al. (2009). They argued that in the US much discussion of climate change issues takes place in a moral and ethical context in which religious groups have significant influence. Such “issues cannot be solved by simply calculating an ‘optimal solution’. Rather, they invoke fundamental questions on how we ought to live and how humans should and relate to each other and non-human nature” (Wardekker et al. 2009, p. 513). Using argumentative analysis to explore patters in written and spoken statements, they discovers three types of Christian discourse.

First, under ‘conservational stewardship’, God created the world and it should be preserved as it was created. Climate change threatens this creation, and while change will be difficult, church members should each make small changes and lobby others to do likewise.

Second, ‘development stewardship’ has man turning the wilderness into a garden. From this viewpoint, strict climate policy is a constraint to man’s role, and instead emphasis should be placed on technological development. Moreover, strict climate policy is morally repugnant because it places the heaviest burden on the poor.

Third, ‘development preservation’ requires a combination of and preservation, and man has been endowed with the abilities to find solutions. Rich nations have an to protect poorer nations. A range of policy options is consistent with this perspective including regulation, encouragement of new technology and cap-and-trade schemes.

Despite the research activity proceeding elsewhere, there has been little consideration in Australia of the relationships between climate change and religion. It is important that more research is conducted in Australia, because as Tjernstron and Tietenberg (2007) show there is considerable difficulty in simply transferring results from one national jurisdiction to another. By comparing survey results from 26 countries, they showed that individual attitudes towards climate change affect the type of climate change policy that different countries introduce. Further, individual attitudes are shaped by how individuals react to the specific attributes of climate change, , the openness of their society, and by attitudes toward the trustworthiness of government.

Thus the evidence from the literature is that religious persuasion can affect environmental attitudes. In particular, studies have demonstrated differences in environmental attitudes across secularists, Christian non-literalists (liberals) and Christian literalists (conservatives). However in some cases differences in environmental attitudes across these religious groupings may reflect sociodemographic variables, political conservatism or scientific knowledge. Furthermore, it has been demonstrated that there are several distinct environmental that exist within Christian thought and that some are quite supportive of climate action. Thus, it should be recognised that within religious groupings as well as across religious groupings there is likely to be heterogeneity in perspectives.

While there are a number of insights from this existing literature, most of the focus of has been on the relationship between religious persuasion and environmental attitudes. None of

4 these previous studies has involved quantitative research on the relationship between religious persuasion and climate change beliefs. Hence given the potentially important role that religion plays in formulating beliefs in a range of areas, there is a need for further research on this topic.

Methods

By administering a questionnaire, we surveyed 1,927 Australian respondents selected from an online panel of respondents provided by the Online Research Unit (ORU). A two-stage probabilistic sampling procedure was used, which involved initial use of random sampling within the sample frame, but then additional random sampling within specific sections of the sample frame to ensure representativeness of the population across and age. The final sample excludes incomplete responses and those who rushed the survey (completed in less than 8 minutes).

The sociodemographics of the sample and the Australian population are summarised in Table 1. The comparison reveals that the sample corresponds closely with the population statistics.

TABLE 1. Sociodemographic Characteristics of the Internet Sample and the Australian

Population

Internet Sample Australian Population# (aged 16 years or older) Age 47.37 years 45.31 Gender (% Male) 48.95% 48.82% Gross weekly income $1432 $1407 # Data based on Australian Bureau of Statistics (2007)

The first stage of our analysis involved identifying climate change segments. We identified household climate change segments by replicating the study by Maibach et al. (2011)1. Our respondents were asked to provide answers to the same 36 questions used in the Maibach et al. (2011) survey. Similar to the main analysis in the ‘six-America’s study’ by Maibach et al. (2011), we used Latent Class Analysis to derive segments. We identify the same six segments as Maibach et al. that differ in their attitudes and behaviours towards climate change. These are: Alarmed, Concerned, Cautious, Disengaged, Doubtful and Dismissive. The Alarmed segment are the most concerned about climate change, and the Dismissive segment are the least concerned and generally do not believe that it is occurring.

Second we examine how segment membership differed across religious affiliations. To do this we included a question about religious affiliation. For those who identified as belonging to one of the Christian denominations, we grouped them according to whether they belonged to a denomination that generally treats the bible as being the literal (ie believe in biblical inerrancy), and those denominations that do not. Denominations that were treated as having a literal view of scripture included Baptist, Presbyterian, Church of Christ, Lutheran,

1 A comparison of the segmentation results from Maibach et al.’s (2011) study and our segmentation results is presented in Morrison et al (forthcoming).

5 Evangelical and Pentocostal churches. Denominations treated as not having a literal view of scripture were: Catholic, Orthodox, Anglican2 and Uniting churches. Those religious groups where fewer than 15 respondents identified as belonging were excluded from further analysis.

Third we examine how key climate change beliefs differ across religious groups. These beliefs are: how certainty global warming is occurring, belief in human causation, personal importance of the issue, perceived impacts of one’s own mitigation actions, desired Australian efforts to reduce global warming (given associated costs) and belief in whether Australia should not act to reduce climate change emissions until other larger developed and developing countries have begun to do so.

Previous research has shown that associations between religious affiliation and environmental attitude can be spurious (eg Greeley 1993; Kanagy and Nelson 1995) and simply reflect other sociodemographic and attitudinal variables. To correct for this possibility and to isolate the effect of religion on segment membership, we ran a series of ordered logit regressions that predict segment membership on the basis or religion as well as key sociodemographic and attitudinal variables. The ordered logit model is commonly specified as follows:

yi*'xi i where yi = 0 if yi  0 = 1 if 0 < yi  1, = 2 if 1 < yi  2, … = J if yi > J-1 represent the cut-off between ranks. Further details about this model can be found in Greene (1993) and Train (2002).

Consistent with the previous literature that has found knowledge to be a predictor of environmental attitude (eg Schahn and Holzer 1990; Hayes and Marangudakis 2001; Biel and Nilsson 2005), we included an eight question test on climate change to provide an independent test of knowledge. This included questions such as “The hole in the ozone layer is a major climate change issue”, “Today, generating electricity from renewable sources (such as solar and wind) costs about the same as generating electricity from coal” and “The greenhouse effect is caused by heat from the sun being trapped by the atmosphere”. In addition, as we are predicting climate change segment membership which is likely to be influenced by environmental attitude, we also included in our questionnaire Dunlap et al.’s (2000) revised New Environmental (NEP) scale to measure respondents’ environmental attitudes. This 15 item scale has been previously found to include four factors (Dunlap et al. 2000).

As well as collecting quantitative data, we also collected qualitative responses from respondents. At the end of the questionnaire, respondents were all given the opportunity to provide any other comments that they would like to make. Therefore, after the regression analysis, we present some of these qualitative findings to provide a greater depth of insight into our quantitative results.

2 A few Anglican diocese (eg Sydney) do have teach a literal view of scripture. However, as these diocese make up less than 20% of all dioceses within Australia, Anglicans were treated as being non-literal.

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Results

The results on the association between religious affiliation and segment membership is presented in Table 2. Compared to the overall sample, the results suggest that the Christian non-Literal denominations are likely to most closely represent the overall sample, though they do have a slightly smaller proportion in the Alarmed segment. The Atheist/Agnostic/No Religion group (43.8%) and Buddhists (45.7%) have a much higher percentage of people located in the Alarmed and Concerned segments than the sample overall (33.3%). Further, Atheist/Agnostic/No Religion (16.3%) and Buddhists (2.9%) have a lower percentage of people located in the Doubtful and Dismissive segments than the sample overall (20.6%). The respondents who indicate affiliation with Christian denominations that have a literal interpretation of scripture (19.6%) and respondents who indicate that they are Jewish (23.5%) have a smaller proportion of people located in the Alarmed and Concerned segments. The Christian Literalists (30.2%) are also more likely to have a much higher percentage of people located in the Doubtful and Dismissive segments than the sample overall (20.6%). This is not the case for Jewish respondents who have no respondents in the Dismissive segment and a similar proportion in the Doubtful segment (23.5%) to the overall sample in the Doubtful and Dismissive segments.

Table 2: Segment Membership and Religious Affiliation

Alarmed Concerned Cautious Disengaged Doubtful Dismissive Total

111 179 153 111 63 45 Secularists 662 (16.8%) (27.0%) (23.1%) (16.8%) (9.5%) (6.8%) 6 10 12 6 1 0 Buddhist 35 (17.1%) (28.6%) (34.3%) (17.1%) (2.9%) (0.0%) 18 25 55 55 38 28 Christian – Literal 219 (8.2%) (11.4%) (25.1%) (25.1%) (17.4%) (12.8%) 54 171 242 178 87 88 Christian – non Literal 820 (6.6%) (20.9%) (29.5%) (21.7%) (10.6%) (10.7%) 3 1 3 6 4 0 Jewish 17 (17.6%) (5.9%) (17.6%) (35.3%) (23.5%) (0%)

Overall Sample 10.8% 22.5% 26.1% 20.0% 11.3% 9.3%

To further explore the relationship between religious affiliation and climate change beliefs, results are presented in Table 3 showing climate change beliefs for the five religious groups identified in this research. The results mostly mirror what was reported in Table 2. Those who identify with a Christian non-literal denomination have very similar attitudes to the sample overall. Those who are Buddhist or Atheist/Agnostic/No religion are more likely to believe that global warming is occurring, in human causation, that there is a scientific consensus about global warming and in the importance of the issue. They are also more likely to think that their own actions , and that Australia should do something to reduce global warming. Again, those who identify with a Christian denomination with a literal view of scripture are less likely to believe that global warming is occurring, in human causation, that there is a scientific consensus and in the impact of their own mitigation actions. They also have a lower average for personal importance and Australian action to reduce emissions. Those who are Jewish have higher values than the sample for beliefs in global warming and human causation, but lower values than the population on personal importance, perceived impact of mitigation actions and desired Australian actions. ANOVA and Chi-square tests

7 were also run to determine whether there were significant differences between the religious groups on these seven attitudinal variables, and there were in all cases (see Table 4).

The findings from this table and the previous one confirm that climate change beliefs are different across different religious groups. This raises the question of whether these differences are due to the religious beliefs of respondents, or whether it is due to attitudes, knowledge or sociodemographics, a question which we seek to answer next.

Table 3: Climate Change Beliefs Across Religious Groups Atheist/ Christian – Christian – Overall Agnostic/ No Buddhist Jewish Literal non Literal sample religion Certainty global warming is 1 7.02 7.63 5.79 6.3 7.59 6.54 occurring

Believe that climate change is caused mostly by human 52.3% 77.1% 30.7% 41.8% 41.2% 45.1% activities

Believe that most scientists think global warming is happening 47.7% 51.1% 30.6% 34.0% 58.8% 39.4%

Perceived impact of own 2 2.26 2.66 2.09 2.15 2.12 2.19 mitigation actions Personal importance of issue3 3.11 3.37 2.77 2.87 2.82 2.96

Desired Australian Efforts to Reduce Warming Given 2.89 3.06 2.6 2.71 2.53 2.76 Associated Costs4 Contingent International Conditions for Australian 3.5 3.39 3.22 3.25 2.87 3.33 Mitigation Action5 1 Certainty global warming is occurring is measured on a nine-point scale; 2 1=not at all, 4=a lot; 3 1=not at all important, 5=extremely important; 4 1= no effort, 4= large-scale effort, even if it has economic consequences; 5 1-Australia should not reduce its emissions, 4- Regardless of what other countries do Australia should reduce its emissions.

Table 4: Testing of Differences in Perspectives on Climate Change Across Religious Groups

F-Statistic/ P-value 2

Certainty global warming is occurring 19.292 .000

Human causation 52.626 .000

Scientific consensus 41.116 .000

Perceived impact of own mitigation actions 4.921 .001

Personal importance of issue 8.042 .000

Desired Australian efforts to reduce warming given associated costs 6.768 .001

Contingent international conditions for Australian mitigation action 6.873 .001

Before presenting the results of the regression analyses, we first present the results from a factor analysis conducted on the items in the NEP scale. As shown in the Rotated Component Matrix (see Table 5), we identified four factors which we labelled Eco Crisis, Human Ingenuity, Human Rule and Earth Limits based on the variables that loaded highly on

8 each factor. The four factor solution had moderate total variance explained (58.6%), though a high KMO statistic (0.889). The reliability of two of the items were satisfactory, but the alphas for Human Rule and Earth Limits were slightly but not substantially below the standard acceptable level of 0.60.

Table 5: Rotated Component Matrix from the Factor analysis, plus Cronbach Alpha (Reliability) for Each Construct Eco Human Human Earth Scale Items Crisis Ingenuity Rule Limits

Humans are severely abusing the environment. .770

When humans interfere with nature, it often produces disastrous consequences. .743 If things continue on their present course, we will soon experience a major ecological disaster. .676

The balance of nature is very delicate and easily upset. .641

The earth has plenty of natural resources if we just learn how to develop them. .731

Human ingenuity will ensure that we do NOT make the earth unlivable. .635 The balance of nature is strong enough to cope with the impacts of modern industrial nations. .538

Human destruction of the natural environment has been greatly exaggerated. .504

Humans were meant to rule over the rest of nature. .698

Plants and animals have as much right as humans to exist. -.641

Humans have the right to modify the natural environment to suit their needs. .637

The earth has only limited room and resources. .757

Despite our special abilities humans are still subject to the of nature. .670

We are approaching the limit of the number of people the earth can support. .614

Cronbach Alpha 0.762 0.695 0.548 0.580

Table 6 presents the results of four regression analyses that show the effect of religious affiliation, sociodemographics, environmental attitude, knowledge and voting on climate change segment membership. The first model only includes religious affiliation as independent variables. The missing category is identification with a non-Literal Christian denomination. This is a logical group to use as the missing category as it closely represents the sample overall. In this regression, similar to the results presented in Table 2, we see that Buddhist has the largest negatively signed coefficient, followed by Atheist/Agnostic/No religion. The sign is negative as the Alarmed segment was scaled as “1” for the dependent variable and the Dismissive segment was scaled as “6”. Hence the negative sign implies that those who are Buddhist or Atheist/Agnostic/No Religion are more likely to be in one of the Alarmed or Concerned segments, and less likely to be in the Doubtful or Dismissive segments. As expected, the variable representing Christian literal denominations had a positive sign.

9 The coefficient for Jewish is insignificant, implying no difference in segment membership between this group and the Christian non-literal group. Overall this regression had quite low explanatory power, with a McFadden R2 of 0.012. Note however, that this score is different from an R2 in standard regression and is only a relative measure that can be compared only to other models estimated on the same data . However, we can see by comparing the R2 of this model with the other two, that the explanatory power of models 2 and 3 is an order of magnitude better. This implies that religious affiliation has some explanatory power in terms of climate change beliefs, but variables related to sociodemographics and attitudes collectively have much more explanatory power.

In Model 2 sociodemographic, attitudinal variables and knowledge (as represented by the test score) are included as explanatory variables in addition to religious affiliation. Being female, being more educated, not working or being self-employed or being retired and getting a higher test score is associated with a greater likelihood of being in a segment with greater concern about climate change. In terms of attitudes, concern about an eco crisis or that the earth is reaching its limits is also associated with a greater likelihood of being in a segment with greater concern about climate change. However, human rule over nature and human ingenuity is associated with a reduced likelihood of being in a segment with greater concern about climate change. Turning to the religion variables, we see a substantial reduction in the coefficient for Atheist/Agnostic/No Religion, which suggests that a large part of the that members of this group are in segments with a greater concern about climate change is related to knowledge, sociodemographics and environmental attitude. In addition, the coefficient for Jewish has become significant and is negative, suggesting that those who identify as Jewish are more likely to be in a segment with a greater concern about climate change. Interestingly, the magnitude of the Jewish and Buddhist coefficients are similar. The magnitude of the Christian Literal coefficient had not changed substantially. The magnitude of the coefficients for religious affiliation can be compared to other dummy variables to show relative effects. Thus the effect of being Atheist/Agnostic/No Religion is about half the effect of gender and being self-employed, and smaller than the effect of being employed full or part . The effect of being in a Christian Literal denomination is also smaller than the effect of gender or being self employed or retired, and marginally higher than the effect of being employed full or part time. The effect of being Buddhist or Jewish is about 50-200% larger than any of these other effects.

In Model 3 we present one additional regression where we include interactions between the religion variables and the variable representing human rule over nature. This interaction has been included given White’s (1967) contention that there is a link between a Judeo-Christian perspective and a desire for dominion over nature. Consistent with this perspective, there is a positive interaction between human rule and Christian Literal, with the missing category being Christian non-Literal. This interaction suggests that the effect of the Christian literalists’ views regarding human rule over nature will have a much larger impact on segment membership than for the Christian non-Literalists. In other words, the Christian Literalists views about rule over nature are having a substantive effect on climate change segment membership such that they are more likely to be in a segment that is dismissive of climate change. Intriguingly though, this effect is not restricted to the Christian Literalists. The interaction is also positive, significant and of a similar magnitude for those who indicate that they are Atheist/Agnostic/No Religion. This suggests that for this group too their views about human rule over nature are having a substantive effect of climate change segment membership.

10 Lastly in Model 4, we include four variables representing political party voting intentions. These variables are included to explore whether the effect of religious variables simply reflect the political views that members of religious groups tend to hold (Greeley 1993; Kanagy and Nelson 1995). In Model 4, we see that the coefficient for both Atheist/Agnostic/No Religion and Jewish are now insignificant, suggesting that the effects observed for these groups can be explained by their sociodemographics, attitudes and political orientation. However, the coefficients for Buddhist and Christian Literal remain significant at the 5% level, and the magnitude of the coefficients has not changed substantially. Note that correlations between the religion variables and voting intentions were checked, and there were no moderate or large correlations, hence we do not expect these results to have been influenced by multicollinearity.

Table 6: Ordinal regressions showing the effect of religious variables, sociodemographics, attitudes and voting intentions on climate change segment membership Model 4: Religious Model 3: Religious Model 2: Religious Variables Plus Model 1: Variables Plus Variables Plus Attitudes and Religious Attitudes and Attitudes and Sociodemographics Variables Only Sociodemographics Sociodemographics Plus Voting Plus Interactions Intentions Religious Variables Atheist/Agnostic/No # -0.596*** -0.255*** -0.242** 0.046 Religion (0.094) (0.099) (0.099) (0.103) Buddhist -0.921*** -0.891*** -0.871*** -0.809*** (0.308) (0.328) (0.343) (0.328)

Christian Literal 0.392*** 0.341** 0.266* 0.321** (0.135) (0.142) (0.148) (0.143) Jewish 0.143 -0.771* -0.849 -0.619 (0.433) (0.453) (0.572) (0.461) Socio-demographic Variables Gender (1=Male) 0.491*** 0.500*** 0.502***

(0.100) (0.100) (0.102) Education (1-Never went to school, -0.094*** -0.094*** -0.087***

11=postgraduate (0.024) (0.025) (0.025) qualification) Full-time employed 0.308** 0.304** 0.310**

(0.132) (0.132) (0.134)

Part-time employed 0.305** 0.290* 0.340**

(0.152) (0.152) (0.154) Self employed 0.534*** 0.549*** 0.500**

(0.209) (0.209) (0.212) Retirees 0.470*** 0.458*** 0.415***

(0.146) (0.146) (0.148) Test result -0.184*** -0.184*** -0.189***

(0.029) (0.030) (0.030) Attitudinal Variables and Interactions Eco crisis -1.347*** -1.345*** -1.249***

(0.055) (0.055) (0.056)

Human ingenuity 0.873*** 0.874*** 0.801***

(0.049) (0.049) (0.050)

11 Human rule 0.419*** 0.301*** 0.383***

(0.046) (0.065) (0.047) Earth limits -0.376*** -0.385*** -0.380***

(0.047) (0.047) (0.048) Human Rule * 0.229** Atheist/Agnostic/No (0.102) Religion Human Rule * 0.051

Buddhist (0.284) Human Rule * 0.293**

Christian Literal (0.134) Human Rule * Jewish 0.225

(0.577) Voting Intentions -0.786*** Labour (0.121) 0.678*** Liberal (0.118) 1.063*** National (0.278) -1.772*** Greens (0.182) McFadden R2 0.012 0.206 0.207 0.245 # The missing category for the religious variables is Christian non-literal; standard errors are in brackets; *** significant at 1%, ** significant at 5%, * significant at 10% level. The dependent variable in all regressions is segment membership.

To provide further insight into the quantitative results, we also conducted a thematic analysis of the open-ended comments made at the end of the questionnaire, as well as to an earlier question about the causes of climate change. The limited comments from the Buddhist respondents were reflective of their position of supporting climate change policy: I believe many Australians would like to reduce their carbon footprint in their daily lives. But unfortunately sometimes circumstances don't allow. Eg. One of the questions asked about public transport use. As a keen climate change believer, I would prefer to use the public transport, but it also means it will take me 5 hours each day just to travel to and from work, when driving would be 1.5 hours. (Buddhist) Seeings as how my last elect bill was only about $60. I would have trouble reducing it much. (Buddhist) The comments provided some, albeit limited, evidence that biblical beliefs were influencing Christian Literalists perspectives about climate change, as shown by these four responses: You don't allow for God acting in controlling or changing the climate - ultimately we must all realize that He is in charge of the world He has given us to live in and look after. (Christian Literalist) You asked a question previously about God's will - the Bible does say that the surface of the earth will be destroyed by fire -therefore maybe God is using humans and nature to achieve His will. (Christian Literalist) God's Will. (Christian Literalist)

However, such comments from Christian Literalists were fairly uncommon. More discernible was the differences across religious groupings about belief that climate change is either part of a natural cycle, that it is not occurring or due simply to pollution and not carbon emissions. Some examples of quotes of this kind are as follows:

12 ...this a cyclical change over many years and the earth will always change, no matter what Humans do. (Atheist/Agnostic) Climate change is a natural occurrence and human activity has little or no impact on the rate of change. (Christian Non-Literalist) I believe it has been changing since the last ice age and will continue to change. I also believe we should reduce pollution. There are much worse pollutants than CO2. (Christian Literalist) Comments of this type were made by 2.9% of Atheists/Agnostics/No Religion, 3.9% of Christian non-Literalists, and 6.8% of Christian Literalists. This is consistent with the findings in Table 3, that Christian Literalists and Christian non-Literalists are less likely to believe in human causation.

However, there was also evidence, consistent with the findings of Hand and Van Liere (1984), that there are a diversity of views within each religious grouping. For example, note the following comments from both Christian Literalists and Non-Literalists: Please do something to save the EARTH for our children. We cannot eat money to LIVE. (Christian Non-Literalist) I believe we all have to make changes to reduce the effects humans have on climate change if we want our children and grandchildren to go into the future with hope of a safe and healthy life. (Christian Literalist) The climate change debate seems to split many people. At the end of the day, if we don't fix this issue soon, we'll all pay. You can't breathe if there is no air. (Christian Literalist)

Discussion

There has been ongoing research about the relationship between religious beliefs and environmental attitudes. However, less research has focused on the link between religious affiliation and climate change beliefs, particularly in Australia. The results from this study provide clear evidence that among the Australian population attitudes to climate change and climate change policy differ across religious groups. The raw results suggest that Buddhists, Jews and Atheists/Agnostics are likely to agree that there is climate change, it is human induced and to be supportive of policy. The Christian literalists are on the other extreme, with the Christian non-literalists in the middle. These findings are consistent with those of Hand and van Liere (1984) and Guth et al. (1995) from the US, which showed a similar distribution for support for environmental policy among US secularists, Christian literalists and Christian non-literalists. Our findings add to these studies by identifying the climate change attitudes of Buddhist and Jews, two groups not previously evaluated in these earlier studies. Similar to the Atheists/Agnostics members of these two religious groups are more likely to agree that there is climate change, it is human induced and to be supportive of climate change policy.

Earlier studies by Greeley (1993) and Kanagy and Nelson (1995) suggested that the effect of religious variables on environmental concern might simply reflect social, demographic and other factors such as political conservativism. Others such as Biel and Nilsson (2005), Haynes and Marangudakis (2001) and Schahn and Holzer (1990) have suggested that scientific knowledge may similarly be a mediating influence between religious variables and environmental concern. For this reason, we ran a series of ordinal regressions to examine the effect of sociodemographic variables, environmental attitude, knowledge

13 about climate change and voting intentions on segment membership. The results indicate that for those who are Atheist or Agnostic or have no religion, the effect of their religious persuasion substantially diminishes with inclusion of sociodemographic variables, environmental attitudes and knowledge, and becomes insignificant when voting intentions are added to this list of variables. Thus the effect for this group can be explained by the characteristics of the group. However, this is not the case for either the Buddhists or Christian Literalists. The effect for both of these groups are constantly significant and of a similar magnitude across all regression equations. This suggests that for these two groups, the effects relative to the Christian non-Literalist group cannot simply be explained by sociodemographic variables, environmental attitude, knowledge about climate change or voting intentions. It suggests that there is a residual effect that is related to their beliefs.

There was some evidence that this may in part be due to a belief in human rule over nature. However, this is more nuanced than suggested by White (1967). We found a significant interaction between human rule over nature and identification as a Christian literalist, which supports this contention. However, no significant difference was observed for Buddhists or Jews, indicating that the effect of belief in the human rule over nature was similar between Buddhist, Jews and Christian non-Literalists. In addition, a positive and significant interaction between human rule over nature and identifying as an Atheist, Agnostic or having no religion was also found. Overall this indicates that belief in human rule over nature is affecting climate change beliefs for two religious groups. However this does not necessarily originate from a Judeo-Christian perspective.

Qualitative data were also examined in an attempt to provide further insight into the for the persistent significance of the religious variables, despite the inclusion of an array of sociodemographic and other variables. The clearest finding from this analysis was that Christian non-Literalists are more likely to believe that climate change is part of a natural cycle, that it is not occurring, or that it is caused by a pollutant other than carbon dioxide. This is consistent with the findings from the quantitative analysis. However, what is less clear is why this is the case, and what has led to this belief.

While significant effects for religion were identified in this study, it should be borne in mind that these effects vary in magnitude. For the Buddhist and the Jews, the effects were relatively large. However, for the Atheists/Agnostics/No religion group and the Christian Literalists, the effects were similar in magnitude to the effects of a number of sociodemographic variables.

For those of a Christian Literalist persuasion3, this raises the question about what should be done about these findings. One response is that given the moderate size of the effects for some groups, a substantive response is not needed. However, the effect is still significant and of moderate size.

An alternative response is to recognise the of these effects and for denominations to seek to influence their members to bring an ethical dimension to the climate change issue, as recommended by Posas (2007). Indeed there has been evidence of this type of activity, such as in the Anglican diocese of Canberra and Goulburn (Australia) who have developed an Environmental Policy and are seeking to reduce climate change emissions from church buildings and if possible by 50% by 2020 (Anglican Diocese of Canberra and

3 As are two of the authors of this study

14 Goulburn 2007). Another possible response is to seek a unified position across religious groupings on climate change, to seek to change community attitudes. Examples of these included the 2007 and 2009 resolutions of the United Churches of Christ in the USA, which comprises predominantly Congregational churches (United Church of Christ 2007, 2009), the resolution of Evangelical Christian Leaders in the USA (The Evangelical Climate Initiative 2006), as well as the position statements of the World Council of Churches (World Council of Churches 2011). Similar statements have also been released in Australia. For example, the Uniting Church 2006 Assembly adopted a statement called “For the Sake of the Planet and all its People” that relates to climate change, and calls on church members to reduce carbon emission and advocate for governments to reduce dependence on carbon based sources. Evidence is emerging that these sorts of strategies have led to increased local level action to reduce carbon emissions (Ayre 2010). However, as Ayre (2010) suggests, ambiguity still remains for some Australian denominations about the church’s role in being vocal about the need for responsible care for the environment, and opportunity remains to better translate stated positions about climate change into effective work on the ground. Thus there remains opportunity for religious groups across Australia to do more to support the acceptance of human induced climate change and the need for policy responses, as well as action at a local level.

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