Integrated Water Resources Management and Modeling at Multiple Spatial Scales
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Integrated Water Management and Modeling at Multiple Spatial Scales By David Ezechiel Rosenberg B.S.E. (Cornell University) 1998 M.S. (University of California, Davis) 2003 M.S. (University of California, Davis) 2003 DISSERTATION Submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in Civil and Environmental Engineering in the OFFICE OF GRADUATE STUDIES of the UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA DAVIS Approved: _____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ Committee in Charge 2008 -i- David Ezechiel Rosenberg February, 2008 Civil and Environmental Engineering Integrated Water Management and Modeling at Multiple Spatial Scales Abstract Water shortages from intermittent public supplies are a major and expanding global problem. Yet individual users, utility managers, and government officials can improve access or cope with shortages in numerous ways. New supplies, more efficient use of existing resources, long-term investments to expand infrastructure and reduce leakage, and short-term measures to flexibly transfer, ration, or curtail some uses, represent several different approaches, timings, and spatial scales for management. Integrated systems analysis identifies management actions that minimize costs or maximize benefits across a variety of water shortage conditions. The systems analysis works as follows. First, identify a wide range of potential actions. Second, characterize each action by the financial costs, perceived costs, and effective water volume added or saved. Third, describe interdependencies when adopting multiple actions together. Fourth, list the shortage or water availability events and their likelihoods for which the system must adapt to deliver water. And fifth, use stochastic programming with recourse to identify the best mix of actions. Analytical error propagation, sensitivity analysis, Monte-Carlo simulations, robust and grey-number optimization explore implications of uncertainties on recommended actions. Systems analysis is applied separately at three spatial scales in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan—for individual residential users, the water system serving 2.2 million residents in the capital Amman, and the entire kingdom comprising Amman and 11 other governorates. Jordan is a top-ten water-poor country and has a continuing annual population growth of 2% to 3%. Results can help inform current and future shortage coping strategies. Foremost, model results identify a portfolio of actions to reduce shortage coping costs. However, results also establish a systematic approach to integrate source, quantity, reliability, quality, and conservation to estimate water demands; do so using disjoint empirical data sources; yield new insights to size, target, and market conservation actions to users; highlight limitations of a demand curve under block pricing; identify customer willingness-to-pay to improve access; show capital investments required to increase water availability; and show how to include water use efficiency at the regional scale. Together, the results identify complementary actions undertaken at multiple spatial scales in Jordan by individual users, utility managers, and government officials. -ii- Acknowledgements Primary financial support for this dissertation was provided through a U.S. National Science Foundation graduate research fellowship. Secondary financial and travel support were provided through two consulting contracts. Foremost, I want to thank my advisor Jay, and committee members, Richard and Mimi for their open-ended support, encouragement, and feedback. Jay, too, for venturing to Jordan with me in Summer 2004 to jumpstart the project. In Jordan, data collection and results discussions were only possible with the help, cooperation, and participation of Dr Samer Talozi, Dr. Hani Abu Qdais, Dr. Tarek Tawarneh, Dr. Hazem El-Nasser, Roger Griffin, Chris Decker, Osama El-Magrabi, numerous managers at LEMA and the Ministry of Water and Irrigation, various water tradesmen, 36 families I interviewed or surveyed, Anwar El-Halah, and Dawoud Said. Shrukran gazielan (thank you so much!). And finally, thanks to my parents, Aron and Nikki, Shauna, Damian, the Domies, and Lia for your unending love, support, encouragement, and nurturing. Your providing this love—and especially at the end even after I turned in the draft to my committee—enabled me to see this dissertation through to completion. Thank you! -iii- Contents Chapter 1 Introduction ...................................................................................................1 PART I MANAGEMENT AND MODELING FOR INDIVIDUAL WATER USERS ............................................................................................... 17 Chapter 2 Intermittent Water Supplies: Challenges and Opportunities for Residential Water Users in Jordan............................................................18 Chapter 3 Probabilistic Estimation of Water Conservation Effectiveness ..............42 Chapter 4 Modeling Integrated Water-User Decisions in Intermittent Supply Systems ............................................................................................65 PART II MANAGEMENT AND MODELING FOR A WATER UTILITY............ 91 Chapter 5 Modeling Integrated Water Utility Decisions with Recourse and Uncertainties ................................................................................................92 PART III MANAGEMENT AND MODELING FOR A REGION ....................... 129 Chapter 6 Regional Water Management with Water Conservation, Infrastructure Expansions, and Source Variability...............................130 Chapter 7 Conclusions ................................................................................................169 -iv- List of Figures Figure 1.1. Decision tree structure for stochastic program with recourse. .......................16 Figure 2.1. Scheamtic of household water sources and uses in Jordan.............................41 Figure 3.1. Distribution of rainfall catchment among households in Amman, Jordan..............................................................................................................61 Figure 3.2. Distribution among households of water conserved by retrofitting showerheads....................................................................................................62 Figure 3.3. Analytically derived distributions of conservation action effectiveness. ..................................................................................................63 Figure 3.4. Chart for sizing targeted water conservation programs..................................64 Figure 4.1. Model calibration against cumulative distribution of billed residential water use in 2005 for residential customers in Amman, Jordan.....................85 Figure 4.2. Cumulative distributions of willingness-to-pay to avoid shortage.................86 Figure 4.3. Elasticity and cross-elasticity of tanker truck water price..............................87 Figure 4.4. Estimated market penetration and water savings for conservation actions in Amman, Jordan. .............................................................................88 Figure 4.5. Average subsidies required to entice additional customers to install water efficient appliances. ..............................................................................89 Figure 4.6. Sizing curves for water conservation programs..............................................90 Figure 5.1. Decision trees for stochastic programs with recourse ..................................119 Figure 5.2. Schematic of existing and proposed main water supply and wastewater works for Amman ......................................................................120 Figure 5.3. Component analysis for Amman, Jordan water system in 2005. .................121 Figure 5.4. Capacity expansion and expected costs to cope with shortages over time ...............................................................................................................122 Figure 5.5. Costs associated with increasing water availability to customers ................123 Figure 6.1. Demand curves and optimal allocations before (A) and after (B) implementing water conservation programs for users. Shaded area in (B) shows the cost savings from implementing conservation programs. ......................................................................................................155 Figure 6.2. Stochastic WAS model architecture .............................................................156 Figure 6.3. Stochastic WAS data entry ...........................................................................157 Figure 6.4. Jordan governorates (water districts) (adapted from Fisher et. al. [2005]) ..........................................................................................................159 Figure 6.5. Shadow values in $/m3 for freshwater in each district with (top line) and without (bottom line) targeted installations of water efficient appliances for select urban users ..................................................................160 Figure 6.6. Annualized net benefits in $Millions/year with (top line) and without (bottom line) targeted installations of water efficient appliances for select urban users throughout the country ....................................................161 Figure 6.7. Shadow values in $/m3 with (top line) and without (bottom line) a Disi carrier branch to Karak .........................................................................162