What Is Acadians' Electoral Weight in N.B.?

5 octobre 2018 – Telegraph Journal What is Acadians’ electoral weight in N.B.? GABRIEL ARSENEAULT & ROGER OUELLETTE COMMENTARY Acadian Day festivities take place along Water Street in Miramichi. Scholars Gabriel Arseneault and Roger Ouellette write: ‘Since Acadians do not have enough clout in enough ridings to be indispensable to political parties, they must avoid being taken for granted or ignored by political parties.’ PHOTO: JEREMY TREVORS/MIRAMICHI LEADER Francophones now represent about one-third of New Brunswick’s population. How does this demographic weight translate into electoral clout? In which ridings do Acadians have the most influence? And for whom do Acadians vote? This demographic importance is fairly accurately reflected in the electoral boundaries, as shown by the most recent data from the Electoral Boundaries and Representation Commission of New Brunswick. Of the 49 ridings represented in the Legislative Assembly, 16, or 32.7 per cent of the total, have a majority of registered voters whose only mother tongue is French. Francophones also account for more than 20 per cent of the electorate in seven other ridings. In other words, the Acadian vote appears unavoidable in just under half of the ridings, or 23 out of 49. On the other hand, a clear majority of the ridings, 26 out of 49, contain less than 15 per cent francophones. In principle, it would therefore be possible for a party 5 octobre 2018 – Telegraph Journal to obtain a majority of seats without being overly concerned about the French- speaking vote. Over the past 100 years, Acadians have mainly supported the Liberal party. It wasn’t until the Progressive Conservative Richard Hatfield came to power before this Liberal monopoly was broken. In the 1982 elections, in particular, Progressive Conservative MLAs were elected in eight of the province’s 14 predominantly French-speaking ridings, thanks in part to the adoption in 1980 of Bill 88, which recognized the equality of the two official language communities. Jean-Maurice Simard, Premier Hatfield’s francophone lieutenant, also played a fundamental role in this historic victory by putting forward an election strategy aimed at francophone voters. In the 1999 election, another Progressive Conservative leader, Bernard Lord, a French-speaker on his mother’s side and perfectly bilingual, gave his party the largest majority of seats in its history (44 seats out of 55), thanks to a massive vote of Acadians in his favour. In the 2014 provincial election, the Liberal Party led by Brian Gallant succeeded in coming to power with a small majority. All the Acadian majority ridings fell into the hands of the Liberals except Edmundston-Madawaska Centre, where Madeleine Dubé won by less than 250 votes ahead of the Liberal candidate. Similarly, in 2018, of the 21 ridings where francophones represent at least a quarter of registered voters, only Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou was won by the Progressive Conservatives. Robert Gauvin, son of Jean Gauvin, a former minister in the Hatfield government, won by a slender margin of fewer than 100 votes over the Liberal. The riding of Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou is considered to be a barometer, since it often oscillates between the Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives. Among the currently active third parties – the NDP, the People’s Alliance and the Green Party – only the latter succeeded in electing a candidate in a predominantly Francophone riding in the 2018 general election: Kevin Arseneau in Kent North. 5 octobre 2018 – Telegraph Journal For its part, after having successfully wooed the Acadian vote a few times, the Progressive Conservative party led by its new leader Blaine Higgs, who is unilingual English-speaking and a former candidate to the leadership of the CoR, did not seem to have a well-defined strategy for soliciting the vote of the Acadian community. One might even think that Blaine Higgs had given up the Acadian vote. After his election as leader of his party in November 2016, he certainly did not rush to the Acadian regions. However, during the election campaign, he wanted to reassure the francophone population by promising not to compromise their language rights. There is no constitutional way for a Progressive Conservative government led by Blaine Higgs to abolish duality in health care, in particular. For their part, do Brian Gallant’s Liberals take the Acadian vote for granted? With strong support in successive polls from the Acadian electorate during the election campaign, the Liberals had to maintain their seats in the English-speaking regions at all costs if they wanted to stay in power. Premier Brian Gallant, whose headquarters are in the province’s French-speaking southeast, made it clear to the English-speaking electorate that it was important when he appointed himself regional minister for the Saint John region during his last cabinet shuffle. Gallant sought during his term as Premier not to displease the English-speaking electorate, while also not alienating the French-speaking population. That is why his government has been very lukewarm on language issues. In short, the great electoral challenge facing Acadians in this province is this: since Acadians do not have enough clout in enough ridings to be indispensable to political parties, they must avoid being taken for granted or ignored by political parties. Gabriel Arseneault & Roger Ouellette are professors of political science at the Université de Moncton. This text is excerpted from a chapter in ‘L’état de l’Acadie,’ a forthcoming anthology that will paint a portrait of contemporary Acadia and Atlantic francophones. .

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