Provincial Politics in New-Brunswick

Report

PROVINCIAL POLITICS IN NEW-BRUNSWICK

DATE For publicationNUMÉRO on DESeptember PROJET 14, 2018 METHODOLOGY

METHODOLOGY

Web survey using computer-assisted Web interviewing (CAWI) technology.

From September 7 to September 11, 2018

500 New Brunswickers, 18 years of age or older, who have the right to vote in New Brunswick, randomly recruited from LegerWeb’s online panel.

Using data from the 2016 Census, results were weighted according to age, gender, mother tongue, region and level of education in order to ensure a representative sample of the population.

For comparison purposes, a probability sample of 500 respondents would have a margin of error of ± 4.38%, 19 times out of 20.

2 METHODOLOGY

Notes on Reading this Report

The numbers presented have been rounded up. However, the numbers before rounding were used to calculate the sums presented and might therefore not correspond to the manual addition of these numbers.

In this report, data in bold red characters indicate a significantly lower proportion than that of other respondents. Conversely, data in bold green characters indicate a significantly higher proportion that that of other respondents.

A more detailed methodology is presented in the annex.

If you have questions about the data presented in this report, please contact Christian Bourque, Associate and Executive Vice-Present at the following e-mail address: [email protected]

3 PROVINCIAL VOTING INTENTIONS IN NEW BRUNSWICK

Q1A/Q1B. If PROVINCIAL elections were held today, for which political party would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for... In the event a respondent had no opinion, the following prompting question was asked: Even if you have not yet made up your mind, for which of the following political parties would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for... Base: All respondents

TOTAL TOTAL Rest of Non Before After Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ Moncton St-Jean Fredericton Franco NB Franco Distribution Distribution Weighted n = 500 397 212 185 94 136 167 84 64 63 186 111 286 Unweighted n = 500 404 199 205 96 139 169 163 54 72 115 151 253 ...Brian Gallant's New 33% 41% 40% 43% 40% 45% 39% 44% 41% 23% 46% 64% 33% Brunswick Liberal Party ...Blaine Higgs' Progressive Conservative Party of New 25% 32% 29% 35% 24% 33% 36% 28% 40% 33% 31% 14% 39% Brunswick ...Kris Austin's People’s 8% 10% 12% 8% 13% 5% 12% 5% 6% 26% 8% 0% 14% Alliance of New Brunswick

...David Coon's Green Party 7% 8% 10% 6% 9% 9% 8% 8% 4% 8% 10% 14% 6% of New Brunswick ...Jennifer McKenzie's New Democratic Party of New 6% 8% 8% 8% 13% 9% 5% 14% 10% 9% 4% 7% 8% Brunswick ...another party 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% I would not vote 4% ------I would cancel my vote 2% ------I don’t know 7% ------Refusal 8% ------

4 FINAL CHOICE

Based on Based on Based on Based on Based on Q1C. Is this your final choice or people people people people people are you likely to change your who intend who intend who intend who intend who intend mind? to vote for to vote for to vote for to vote for to vote for Base: Respondents who were able the the the the the to say which party they intend to LPNB CPNB PANB GPNB NDPNB (weighted n = 33 (weighted n = 32 (weighted n = 164 (weighted n = 107 (weighted n = 39 vote for. unweighted n = 174) unweighted n = 104) unweighted n = 34) unweighted n = 36) unweighted n = 39) (weighted n = 375, unweighted n = 387)

Total

Final choice 64% 61% 73% 69% 53% 57%

I'm likely to change my mind 21% 24% 14% 11% 36% 21%

I don't know 15% 16% 13% 20% 11% 21%

Refusal 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

5 SATISFACTION WITH THE NEW BRUNSWICK GOVERNMENT

Q2. Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied with the New Very satisfied 7% Brunswick government led by NET SATISFIED Brian Gallant? Base: All respondents (n=500) 42%

Somewhat satisfied 35%

Somewhat dissatisfied 27% NET DISSATISFIED 46%

Very dissatisfied 19%

I don't know / refusal 12%

6 SATISFACTION WITH THE NEW BRUNSWICK GOVERNMENT – DETAILED RESULTS

Q2. Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied with the New Brunswick government led by Brian Gallant? Base: All respondents

Rest of Non TOTAL Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ Moncton St-Jean Fredericton Franco NB Franco

Weighted n = 500 242 258 114 168 215 97 84 69 250 149 350 Unweighted n = 500 231 269 122 171 204 186 71 83 160 200 297

NET SATISFIED 42% 45% 39% 55% 45% 33% 48% 36% 41% 42% 50% 39%

Very satisfied 7% 9% 6% 16% 4% 6% 9% 6% 6% 8% 9% 7%

Somewhat satisfied 35% 36% 33% 39% 42% 28% 40% 31% 34% 34% 42% 32%

NET DISSATISFIED 46% 48% 44% 34% 44% 54% 42% 52% 57% 42% 37% 50%

Somewhat dissatisfied 27% 27% 27% 23% 27% 29% 19% 37% 40% 23% 27% 27%

Very dissatisfied 19% 21% 16% 11% 16% 25% 23% 15% 17% 19% 11% 22%

I don’t know 6% 3% 9% 9% 10% 2% 6% 9% 0% 7% 5% 7%

Refusal 6% 3% 8% 2% 2% 11% 4% 3% 2% 9% 7% 5%

7 BEST PREMIER OF NEW BRUNSWICK

Q3. In your opinion, which provincial party leader would make the best premier of New Brunswick? Base : All respondents (n=500)

28% 11% 8% 7% 6%

Note: The complement to 100% corresponds to “Other,” None of them,” “I don’t know” and “Refusal” responses. 8 SECOND CHOICE – ACCORDING TO VOTING INTENTIONS

Q4. If you could not vote for Q1A/Q1B, what would be your second choice? Base: Respondents who intend to vote for the LPNB, the CPNB, the GPNB, the NPDNB or the PANB

TOTAL LPNB CPNB PANB GPNB NDPNB

Weighted n = 375 164 107 39 33 32 Unweighted n = 387 174 104 34 36 39

...Brian Gallant's New Brunswick Liberal Party 12% - 18% 7% 32% 33%

...Blaine Higgs' Progressive Conservative Party 14% 22% - 29% 6% 13% of New Brunswick ...Kris Austin's People’s Alliance of New 8% 5% 14% - 0% 21% Brunswick

...David Coon's Green Party of New Brunswick 18% 20% 13% 35% - 20%

...Jennifer McKenzie's New Democratic Party of 17% 20% 18% 2% 31% - New Brunswick

...another party 2% 0% 3% 5% 0% 3%

I would not vote 9% 8% 12% 2% 17% 0%

I would cancel my vote 6% 8% 6% 1% 1% 2%

I don’t know 15% 15% 14% 18% 13% 10%

Refusal 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0%

9 EXPECTED WINNER

Q5. In your opinion, which of the following parties will win the elections on September 24th? Is it... Base : All respondents

Rest of Non TOTAL Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ Moncton St-Jean Fredericton Franco NB Franco

Weighted n = 500 242 258 114 168 215 97 84 69 250 149 350 Unweighted n = 500 231 269 122 171 204 186 71 83 160 200 297

...Brian Gallant's New Brunswick 46% 46% 45% 43% 56% 40% 49% 40% 39% 48% 63% 39% Liberal Party

...Blaine Higgs' Progressive Conservative Party of New 17% 21% 12% 14% 13% 21% 20% 18% 14% 16% 10% 19% Brunswick

...Kris Austin's People’s Alliance of 4% 5% 2% 7% 5% 1% 1% 0% 14% 3% 0% 5% New Brunswick

...David Coon's Green Party of New 3% 5% 1% 6% 3% 1% 1% 1% 9% 3% 0% 4% Brunswick

...Jennifer McKenzie's New 1% 2% 0% 2% 2% 0% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 1% Democratic Party of New Brunswick

...another party 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% I don’t know 27% 19% 35% 26% 20% 34% 25% 32% 22% 28% 22% 29% Refusal 2% 1% 3% 1% 1% 3% 1% 6% 2% 2% 4% 2%

10 EXPECTED WINNER – ACCORDING TO VOTING INTENTIONS

Q5. In your opinion, which of the following parties will win the elections on September 24th? Is it... Base: Respondents who intend to vote for the LPNB, the CPNB, the GPNB, the NPDNB or the PANB

TOTAL LPNB CPNB PANB GPNB NDPNB

Weighted n = 500 164 126 39 33 32 Unweighted n = 500 174 117 34 36 39

...Brian Gallant's New Brunswick Liberal Party 46% 83% 23% 30% 33% 43%

...Blaine Higgs' Progressive Conservative Party 17% 3% 40% 19% 15% 28% of New Brunswick ...Kris Austin's People’s Alliance of New 4% 3% 2% 23% 2% 0% Brunswick

...David Coon's Green Party of New Brunswick 3% 0% 5% 0% 28% 0%

...Jennifer McKenzie's New Democratic Party of 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 13% New Brunswick

...another party 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0%

I don’t know 27% 11% 29% 26% 22% 17%

Refusal 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

11 APPENDIX DETAILED METHODOLOGY

Sampling Frame

Participants were randomly selected from LegerWeb’s online panel.

Leger owns and manages an Internet panel that includes more than 400,000 Canadians coast to coast. An online panel consists of Web users profiled according to different demographic variables. The majority of Leger’s panel members (60%) were randomly recruited over the phone in the past ten years, which makes this panel very similar to the current Canadian population on a number of demographic characteristics. Moreover, 35% of panellists were recruited through affiliate programs and 5% through partner campaigns and programs.

To be eligible, respondents were required to be 18 years of age or older and have the right to vote in New Brunswick.

13 DETAILED METHODOGOLY

Weighted and Unweighted Sample

The table below presents the geographic distribution of respondents before weighting. In the unweighted sample, there was a slight imbalance in geographical distribution. The weighting process served primarily to adjust the weight (slightly overrepresented in the sample) of the regions outside of major urban centres.

Region Unweighted Weighted Moncton 186 97 Saint-Jean 71 84 Fredericton 83 69 Rest of New Brunswick 160 250

14 DETAILED METHODOGOLY

Weighted and Unweighted Sample

The following tables present the demographic distribution of respondents according to gender, age and language (mother tongue)

GENDER Unweighted Weighted Male 231 242 Female 269 258

AGE Unweighted Weighted Between 18 and 34 122 114 Between 35 and 55 171 168 55 or over 204 215

LANGUAGE (MOTHER Unweighted Weighted TONGUE) French 200 149 English – Other 297 350

The sample thus collected has a minimum weighting factor of 0.1717 and a maximum weighting factor of 5.3454. The weighted variance is 0.6860.

15 SURVEY

[ASK ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] QS1. In which region of New Brunswick do you live? Label Value Attribute Termination Moncton 1 Saint-Jean 2 Fredericton 3 Other region of New Brunswick 4 F

[ASK ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] SEXE. Please indicate your sex: Note: As indicated by Statistics Canada, transgender, transsexual, and intersex Canadians should indicate the sex (male or female) with which they most associate themselves.

Label Value Attribute Termination Male 1 Female 2

16 SURVEY [ASK ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] AGE. How old are you? Label Value Attribute Termination Under 18 0 TERMINATE Between 18 and 24 1 Between 25 and 34 2 Between 35 and 44 3 Between 45 and 54 4 Between 55 and 64 5 Between 65 and 74 6 75 or older 7 I prefer not to answer 99 TERMINATE

ASK ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] [LIST ORDER: In order] ELI1. Are you at least 18 years old and eligible to vote in New Brunswick? Label Value Attribute Termination Yes 1 No 2 TERMINATE

17 SURVEY

[BASE : ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] [LIST ORDER: Randomized 1-5] Q1A. If PROVINCIAL elections were held today, for which political party would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for... Label Value Attribute Termination ...Jennifer McKenzie's New Democratic Party of New Brunswick 1 ...Blaine Higgs' Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick 2 ...Brian Gallant's New Brunswick Liberal Party 3 ...Kris Austin's People’s Alliance of New Brunswick 4 ...David Coon's Green Party of New Brunswick 5 ...another party 6 F I would not vote 7 F I would cancel my vote 8 F I don't know 98 F I prefer not to answer 99 F

18 SURVEY

[BASE : ASK IF Q1A=98] [SINGLE MENTION] [LIST ORDER: Randomized 1-5] Q1B. Even if you have not yet made up your mind, for which of the following political parties would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for... Label Value Attribute Termination ...Jennifer McKenzie's New Democratic Party of New Brunswick 1 ...Blaine Higgs' Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick 2 ...Brian Gallant's New Brunswick Liberal Party 3 ...Kris Austin's People’s Alliance of New Brunswick 4 ...David Coon's Green Party of New Brunswick 5 ...another party 6 F I would not vote 7 F I would cancel my vote 8 F I don't know 98 F I prefer not to answer 99 F

[BASE : ASK IF Q1A=1, 2, 3, 4, 5 OR IF Q1B 1, 2, 3, 4, 5] [SINGLE MENTION] [LIST ORDER: In order] Q1C. Is this your final choice or are you likely to change your mind? Label Value Attribute Termination My choice is final 1 I’m likely to change my mind 2 I don’t know 98 F I prefer not to answer 99 F

19 SURVEY

[BASE : ASK ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] [LIST ORDER: In order] Q2. Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied with the New Brunswick government led by Brian Gallant?

Label Value Attribute Termination Very satisfied 1 Somewhat satisfied 2 Somewhat dissatisfied 3 Very dissatisfied 4 I don’t know 98 F I prefer not to answer 99 F

[BASE : ASK ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] [LIST ORDER: Randomized 1-5] Q3. In your opinion, which provincial party leader would make the best premier of New Brunswick? Label Value Attribute Termination Jennifer McKenzie 1 Blaine Higgs 2 Brian Gallant 3 David Goon 4 Kris Austin 5 Someone else 6 F None of them 7 F I don't know 98 F I prefer not to answer 99 F

20 SURVEY

[BASE : ASK IF Q1A=1, 2, 3, 4, 5 OR Q1B=1, 2, 3, 4, 5] [SINGLE MENTION] [LIST ORDER: Randomized 1-5] Q4. If you could not vote for Q1A/Q1B, what would be your second choice? Label Value Attribute Termination ...Jennifer McKenzie's New Democratic Party of New Brunswick 1 ...Blaine Higgs' Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick 2 ...Brian Gallant's New Brunswick Liberal Party 3 ...Kris Austin's People’s Alliance of New Brunswick 4 ...David Coon's Green Party of New Brunswick 5 ...another party 6 F I would not vote 7 F I would cancel my vote 8 F I don't know 98 F I prefer not to answer 99 F

21 SURVEY

[BASE : AKS ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] [LIST ORDER: Randomized 1-5] Q5. In your opinion, which of the following parties will win the elections on September 24th ? Is it... Label Value Attribute Termination ...Jennifer McKenzie's New Democratic Party of New Brunswick 1 ...Blaine Higgs' Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick 2 ...Brian Gallant's New Brunswick Liberal Party 3 ...Kris Austin's People’s Alliance of New Brunswick 4 ...David Coon's Green Party of New Brunswick 5 ...another party 6 F I don't know 98 F I prefer not to answer 99 F

[ASK ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] LANGU. What is the language you first learned at home in your childhood and that you still understand? Label Value Attribute Termination French 1 English 2 Other 3 English and French 7 French and other 4 English and other 5 Other and other 6 I prefer not to answer 9

22 SURVEY

[ASK ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] ENFAN. Are there any children who are UNDER 18 YEARS OF AGE living in your household? (IF SO): Are any of them 12 YEARS OLD AND OLDER or LESS THAN 12 years old? Label Value Attribute Termination Yes: 12 years of age and OLDER ONLY 1 Yes: 12 years of age and older AND younger than 12 years old 2 Yes: YOUNGER than 12 years old ONLY 3 No children under 18 years old at all in the household 4 I prefer not to answer 9

23 CROSSED TABLES

If PROVINCIAL elections were held today, for which political party would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for...? No:1 Gender Age Region of New Brunswick Mother Tongue Other Non- B1 Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55 + Moncton St-Jean Fredericton Francophone regions francophone VOTE WITH PROBE Weighted Totals : 500 242 258 114 168 215 97 84 69 250 149 350 Unweighted Totals : 500 231 269 122 171 204 186 71 83 160 200 297 ...Jennifer McKenzie's New Democratic Party of New Brunswick 6% 7% 6% 11% 7% 4% 12% 8% 8% 3% 5% 7% ...Blaine Higgs' Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick 25% 26% 25% 20% 26% 28% 24% 30% 30% 23% 10% 32% ...Brian Gallant's New Brunswick Liberal Party 33% 35% 31% 33% 36% 31% 39% 31% 21% 34% 47% 27% ...Kris Austin's People's Alliance of New Brunswick 8% 10% 6% 11% 4% 9% 5% 4% 23% 6% 0% 11% ...David Coon's Green Party of New Brunswick 7% 9% 5% 8% 7% 6% 7% 3% 7% 8% 10% 5% ...another party 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% I would not vote 4% 4% 3% 4% 5% 2% 6% 6% 2% 2% 5% 3% I would cancel my vote 2% 2% 2% 1% 3% 1% 1% 1% 0% 3% 3% 1% I don't know 7% 4% 10% 10% 3% 10% 3% 6% 5% 10% 7% 7% I prefer not to answer 8% 2% 13% 3% 8% 8% 3% 11% 3% 10% 9% 7%

If PROVINCIAL elections were held today, for which political party would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for...? No:2 Gender Age Region of New Brunswick Mother Tongue Other Non- B1 Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55 + Moncton St-Jean Fredericton Francophone regions francophone VOTEX

AMONG DECIDED

Weighted Totals : 397 212 185 94 136 167 84 64 63 186 111 286 Unweighted Totals : 404 199 205 96 139 169 163 54 72 115 151 253 ...Jennifer McKenzie's New Democratic Party of New Brunswick 8% 8% 8% 13% 9% 5% 14% 10% 9% 4% 7% 8% ...Blaine Higgs' Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick 32% 29% 35% 24% 33% 36% 28% 40% 33% 31% 14% 39% ...Brian Gallant's New Brunswick Liberal Party 41% 40% 43% 40% 45% 39% 44% 41% 23% 46% 64% 33% ...Kris Austin's People's Alliance of New Brunswick 10% 12% 8% 13% 5% 12% 5% 6% 26% 8% 0% 14% ...David Coon's Green Party of New Brunswick 8% 10% 6% 9% 9% 8% 8% 4% 8% 10% 14% 6% ...another party 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0%

24 CROSSED TABLES

In which region of New Brunswick do you live? No:3 Gender Age Region of New Brunswick Mother Tongue Other Non- B1 Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55 + Moncton St-Jean Fredericton Francophone regions francophone QS1 Weighted Totals : 500 242 258 114 168 215 97 84 69 250 149 350 Unweighted Totals : 500 231 269 122 171 204 186 71 83 160 200 297 Moncton 19% 19% 19% 21% 22% 16% 100% 0% 0% 0% 19% 19% St-Jean 17% 17% 17% 18% 17% 15% 0% 100% 0% 0% 1% 23% Fredericton 14% 14% 14% 22% 13% 10% 0% 0% 100% 0% 3% 18% Other region of New Brunswick 50% 50% 50% 39% 48% 58% 0% 0% 0% 100% 77% 39%

Is this your final choice or are you likely to change your mind? No:5 Gender Age Region of New Brunswick Mother Tongue Other Non- B1 Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55 + Moncton St-Jean Fredericton Francophone regions francophone Q1C Weighted Totals : 375 199 176 90 126 158 82 63 61 170 110 265 Unweighted Totals : 387 191 196 91 133 163 158 52 69 108 149 238 My choice is final 64% 69% 58% 64% 62% 66% 60% 61% 67% 66% 53% 68% I'm likely to change my mind 21% 19% 22% 25% 14% 24% 16% 15% 14% 27% 40% 12% I don't know 15% 12% 19% 11% 24% 11% 24% 24% 20% 6% 6% 19% I prefer not to answer 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Is this your final choice or are you likely to change your mind? If PROVINCIAL elections were held today, for which political party would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for...? I would ...another I would not I prefer not to Total NDPNB CPNB LPNB PANB GPNB cancel my I don't know party vote answer vote Q1C Weighted Totals : 375 32 107 164 39 33 0 0 0 0 0 Unweighted Totals : 387 39 104 174 34 36 0 0 0 0 0 My choice is final 64% 57% 73% 61% 69% 53% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% I'm likely to change my mind 21% 21% 14% 24% 11% 36% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% I don't know 15% 21% 13% 16% 20% 11% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% I prefer not to answer 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

25 CROSSED TABLES

Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied with the New Brunswick government led by Brian Gallant? No:7 Gender Age Region of New Brunswick Mother Tongue Other Non- B1 Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55 + Moncton St-Jean Fredericton Francophone regions francophone Q2 Weighted Totals : 500 242 258 114 168 215 97 84 69 250 149 350 Unweighted Totals : 500 231 269 122 171 204 186 71 83 160 200 297 NET SATISFIED 42% 45% 39% 55% 45% 33% 48% 36% 41% 42% 50% 39% Very satisfied 7% 9% 6% 16% 4% 6% 9% 6% 6% 8% 9% 7% Somewhat satisfied 35% 36% 33% 39% 42% 28% 40% 31% 34% 34% 42% 32% NET DISSATISFIED 46% 48% 44% 34% 44% 54% 42% 52% 57% 42% 37% 50% Somewhat dissatisfied 27% 27% 27% 23% 27% 29% 19% 37% 40% 23% 27% 27% Very dissatisfied 19% 21% 16% 11% 16% 25% 23% 15% 17% 19% 11% 22% NET DK + REFUSAL 12% 7% 18% 11% 11% 13% 10% 12% 3% 16% 12% 12% I don't know 6% 3% 9% 9% 10% 2% 6% 9% 0% 7% 5% 7% I prefer not to answer 6% 3% 8% 2% 2% 11% 4% 3% 2% 9% 7% 5%

In your opinion, which provincial party leader would make the best premier of New Brunswick? No:9 Gender Age Region of New Brunswick Mother Tongue Other Non- B1 Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55 + Moncton St-Jean Fredericton Francophone regions francophone Q3 Weighted Totals : 500 242 258 114 168 215 97 84 69 250 149 350 Unweighted Totals : 500 231 269 122 171 204 186 71 83 160 200 297 Jennifer McKenzie 6% 6% 5% 10% 7% 3% 10% 8% 7% 3% 4% 6% Blaine Higgs 11% 11% 12% 3% 9% 18% 14% 16% 9% 10% 7% 13% Brian Gallant 28% 33% 23% 34% 26% 26% 31% 23% 22% 29% 41% 22% David Goon 8% 9% 6% 8% 8% 7% 8% 5% 6% 9% 10% 7% Kris Austin 7% 10% 4% 8% 5% 8% 4% 3% 17% 7% 1% 10% Someone else 4% 4% 4% 8% 4% 1% 3% 7% 9% 2% 0% 5% None of them 8% 9% 7% 1% 13% 8% 8% 7% 2% 10% 9% 7% I don't know 23% 18% 28% 25% 25% 21% 19% 24% 25% 24% 22% 24% I prefer not to answer 6% 1% 10% 2% 3% 9% 2% 7% 4% 7% 6% 5%

26 CROSSED TABLES

In your opinion, which provincial party leader would make the best premier of New Brunswick? If PROVINCIAL elections were held today, for which political party would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for...? I would ...another I would not I prefer not to Total NDPNB CPNB LPNB PANB GPNB cancel my I don't know party vote answer vote Q3 Weighted Totals : 500 32 126 164 39 33 2 18 10 37 38 Unweighted Totals : 500 39 117 174 34 36 4 24 9 31 32 Jennifer McKenzie 6% 72% 2% 1% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% Blaine Higgs 11% 0% 40% 3% 1% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Brian Gallant 28% 4% 7% 71% 10% 14% 0% 2% 0% 9% 0% David Goon 8% 2% 9% 2% 2% 51% 0% 6% 10% 7% 2% Kris Austin 7% 0% 7% 0% 58% 0% 23% 0% 0% 0% 3% Someone else 4% 1% 4% 4% 2% 1% 38% 6% 6% 13% 0% None of them 8% 0% 1% 5% 9% 3% 0% 39% 74% 7% 24% I don't know 23% 21% 28% 15% 18% 23% 39% 43% 10% 50% 15% I prefer not to answer 6% 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0% 4% 0% 14% 53%

If you could not vote for (first choice), what would be your second choice? No:11 Gender Age Region of New Brunswick Mother Tongue Other Non- B1 Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55 + Moncton St-Jean Fredericton Francophone regions francophone Q4 Weighted Totals : 375 199 176 90 126 158 82 63 61 170 110 265 Unweighted Totals : 387 191 196 91 133 163 158 52 69 108 149 238 Jennifer McKenzie's New Democratic Party of New Brunswick 17% 15% 19% 22% 21% 11% 17% 17% 7% 21% 24% 14% Blaine Higgs' Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick 14% 18% 10% 11% 14% 17% 14% 23% 9% 14% 9% 16% Brian Gallant's New Brunswick Liberal Party 12% 15% 8% 18% 9% 10% 8% 17% 22% 8% 11% 12% Kris Austin's People's Alliance of New Brunswick 8% 11% 4% 7% 12% 4% 10% 0% 4% 11% 3% 10% David Coon's Green Party of New Brunswick 18% 15% 21% 17% 14% 22% 17% 7% 33% 17% 20% 17% another party 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% 2% 2% 0% 6% 1% 1% 2% I would not vote 9% 9% 8% 6% 10% 9% 8% 10% 6% 10% 10% 8% I would cancel my vote 6% 5% 6% 4% 4% 8% 6% 3% 2% 8% 10% 4% I don't know 15% 8% 21% 12% 15% 16% 17% 22% 12% 11% 13% 15% I prefer not to answer 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1%

27 CROSSED TABLES

If you could not vote for (first choice), what would be your second choice? If PROVINCIAL elections were held today, for which political party would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for...? I would ...another I would not I prefer not to Total NDPNB CPNB LPNB PANB GPNB cancel my I don't know party vote answer vote Q4 Weighted Totals : 375 32 107 164 39 33 0 0 0 0 0 Unweighted Totals : 387 39 104 174 34 36 0 0 0 0 0 Jennifer McKenzie's New Democratic Party of New Brunswick 17% 0% 18% 20% 2% 31% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Blaine Higgs' Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick 14% 13% 0% 22% 29% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Brian Gallant's New Brunswick Liberal Party 12% 33% 18% 0% 7% 32% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Kris Austin's People's Alliance of New Brunswick 8% 21% 14% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% David Coon's Green Party of New Brunswick 18% 20% 13% 20% 35% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% another party 2% 3% 3% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% I would not vote 9% 0% 12% 8% 2% 17% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% I would cancel my vote 6% 2% 6% 8% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% I don't know 15% 10% 14% 15% 18% 13% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% I prefer not to answer 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

In your opinion, which of the following parties will win the elections on September 24th? Is it... No:13 Gender Age Region of New Brunswick Mother Tongue Other Non- B1 Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55 + Moncton St-Jean Fredericton Francophone regions francophone Q5 Weighted Totals : 500 242 258 114 168 215 97 84 69 250 149 350 Unweighted Totals : 500 231 269 122 171 204 186 71 83 160 200 297 ...Jennifer McKenzie's New Democratic Party of New Brunswick 1% 2% 0% 2% 2% 0% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 1% ...Blaine Higgs' Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick 17% 21% 12% 14% 13% 21% 20% 18% 14% 16% 10% 19% ...Brian Gallant's New Brunswick Liberal Party 46% 46% 45% 43% 56% 40% 49% 40% 39% 48% 63% 39% ...Kris Austin's People's Alliance of New Brunswick 4% 5% 2% 7% 5% 1% 1% 0% 14% 3% 0% 5% ...David Coon's Green Party of New Brunswick 3% 5% 1% 6% 3% 1% 1% 1% 9% 3% 0% 4% ...another party 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% I don't know 27% 19% 35% 26% 20% 34% 25% 32% 22% 28% 22% 29% I prefer not to answer 2% 1% 3% 1% 1% 3% 1% 6% 2% 2% 4% 2%

28 CROSSED TABLES

In your opinion, which of the following parties will win the elections on September 24th? Is it... If PROVINCIAL elections were held today, for which political party would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for...? I would ...another I would not I prefer not to Total NDPNB CPNB LPNB PANB GPNB cancel my I don't know party vote answer vote Q5 Weighted Totals : 500 32 126 164 39 33 2 18 10 37 38 Unweighted Totals : 500 39 117 174 34 36 4 24 9 31 32 ...Jennifer McKenzie's New Democratic Party of New Brunswick 1% 13% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% ...Blaine Higgs' Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick 17% 28% 40% 3% 19% 15% 17% 13% 5% 7% 0% ...Brian Gallant's New Brunswick Liberal Party 46% 43% 23% 83% 30% 33% 22% 20% 47% 14% 33% ...Kris Austin's People's Alliance of New Brunswick 4% 0% 2% 3% 23% 2% 23% 3% 0% 0% 0% ...David Coon's Green Party of New Brunswick 3% 0% 5% 0% 0% 28% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ...another party 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 3% 0% 2% 0% I don't know 27% 17% 29% 11% 26% 22% 39% 55% 48% 77% 38% I prefer not to answer 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 29%

Please indicate your sex: No:15 Gender Age Region of New Brunswick Mother Tongue Other Non- B1 Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55 + Moncton St-Jean Fredericton Francophone regions francophone SEXE Weighted Totals : 500 242 258 114 168 215 97 84 69 250 149 350 Unweighted Totals : 500 231 269 122 171 204 186 71 83 160 200 297 Male 48% 100% 0% 50% 49% 48% 48% 49% 48% 48% 41% 52% Female 52% 0% 100% 50% 51% 52% 52% 51% 52% 52% 59% 48%

How old are you? No:17 Gender Age Region of New Brunswick Mother Tongue Other Non- B1 Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55 + Moncton St-Jean Fredericton Francophone regions francophone AGE Weighted Totals : 500 242 258 114 168 215 97 84 69 250 149 350 Unweighted Totals : 500 231 269 122 171 204 186 71 83 160 200 297 Between 18 and 24 10% 10% 9% 42% 0% 0% 14% 11% 29% 2% 5% 12% Between 25 and 34 13% 13% 13% 58% 0% 0% 11% 13% 8% 16% 14% 13% Between 35 and 44 15% 15% 15% 0% 45% 0% 23% 13% 18% 12% 18% 14% Between 45 and 54 18% 19% 18% 0% 55% 0% 15% 21% 14% 20% 16% 20% Between 55 and 64 19% 19% 19% 0% 0% 45% 10% 17% 16% 25% 21% 19% Between 65 and 74 18% 16% 19% 0% 0% 41% 22% 21% 14% 16% 18% 18% 75 or older 6% 7% 5% 0% 0% 14% 5% 1% 1% 9% 8% 5% I prefer not to answer 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 1%

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What is the language you first learned at home in your childhood and that you still understand? No:19 Gender Age Region of New Brunswick Mother Tongue Other Non- B1 Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55 + Moncton St-Jean Fredericton Francophone regions francophone LANGU Weighted Totals : 500 242 258 114 168 215 97 84 69 250 149 350 Unweighted Totals : 500 231 269 122 171 204 186 71 83 160 200 297 French 30% 25% 34% 25% 30% 33% 30% 2% 6% 46% 100% 0% English 69% 73% 64% 73% 68% 67% 66% 96% 93% 54% 0% 98% Other 1% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 3% 1% 1% 1% 0% 2% I prefer not to answer 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Are there any children under 18 years of age living in your household? No:21 Gender Age Region of New Brunswick Mother Tongue Other Non- B1 Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55 + Moncton St-Jean Fredericton Francophone regions francophone ENFA Weighted Totals : 500 242 258 114 168 215 97 84 69 250 149 350 Unweighted Totals : 500 231 269 122 171 204 186 71 83 160 200 297 Yes 23% 22% 25% 37% 41% 2% 30% 29% 32% 16% 22% 24% No 76% 77% 75% 63% 58% 98% 69% 70% 67% 84% 78% 76% I prefer not to answer 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0%

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