Report PROVINCIAL POLITICS IN NEW-BRUNSWICK DATE For publicationNUMÉRO on DESeptember PROJET 14, 2018 METHODOLOGY METHODOLOGY Web survey using computer-assisted Web interviewing (CAWI) technology. From September 7 to September 11, 2018 500 New Brunswickers, 18 years of age or older, who have the right to vote in New Brunswick, randomly recruited from LegerWeb’s online panel. Using data from the 2016 Census, results were weighted according to age, gender, mother tongue, region and level of education in order to ensure a representative sample of the population. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of 500 respondents would have a margin of error of ± 4.38%, 19 times out of 20. 2 METHODOLOGY Notes on Reading this Report The numbers presented have been rounded up. However, the numbers before rounding were used to calculate the sums presented and might therefore not correspond to the manual addition of these numbers. In this report, data in bold red characters indicate a significantly lower proportion than that of other respondents. Conversely, data in bold green characters indicate a significantly higher proportion that that of other respondents. A more detailed methodology is presented in the annex. If you have questions about the data presented in this report, please contact Christian Bourque, Associate and Executive Vice-Present at the following e-mail address: [email protected] 3 PROVINCIAL VOTING INTENTIONS IN NEW BRUNSWICK Q1A/Q1B. If PROVINCIAL elections were held today, for which political party would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for... In the event a respondent had no opinion, the following prompting question was asked: Even if you have not yet made up your mind, for which of the following political parties would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for... Base: All respondents TOTAL TOTAL Rest of Non Before After Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ Moncton St-Jean Fredericton Franco NB Franco Distribution Distribution Weighted n = 500 397 212 185 94 136 167 84 64 63 186 111 286 Unweighted n = 500 404 199 205 96 139 169 163 54 72 115 151 253 ...Brian Gallant's New 33% 41% 40% 43% 40% 45% 39% 44% 41% 23% 46% 64% 33% Brunswick Liberal Party ...Blaine Higgs' Progressive Conservative Party of New 25% 32% 29% 35% 24% 33% 36% 28% 40% 33% 31% 14% 39% Brunswick ...Kris Austin's People’s 8% 10% 12% 8% 13% 5% 12% 5% 6% 26% 8% 0% 14% Alliance of New Brunswick ...David Coon's Green Party 7% 8% 10% 6% 9% 9% 8% 8% 4% 8% 10% 14% 6% of New Brunswick ...Jennifer McKenzie's New Democratic Party of New 6% 8% 8% 8% 13% 9% 5% 14% 10% 9% 4% 7% 8% Brunswick ...another party 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% I would not vote 4% - - - - - - - - - - - - I would cancel my vote 2% - - - - - - - - - - - - I don’t know 7% - - - - - - - - - - - - Refusal 8% - - - - - - - - - - - - 4 FINAL CHOICE Based on Based on Based on Based on Based on Q1C. Is this your final choice or people people people people people are you likely to change your who intend who intend who intend who intend who intend mind? to vote for to vote for to vote for to vote for to vote for Base: Respondents who were able the the the the the to say which party they intend to LPNB CPNB PANB GPNB NDPNB (weighted n = 33 (weighted n = 32 (weighted n = 164 (weighted n = 107 (weighted n = 39 vote for. unweighted n = 174) unweighted n = 104) unweighted n = 34) unweighted n = 36) unweighted n = 39) (weighted n = 375, unweighted n = 387) Total Final choice 64% 61% 73% 69% 53% 57% I'm likely to change my mind 21% 24% 14% 11% 36% 21% I don't know 15% 16% 13% 20% 11% 21% Refusal 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5 SATISFACTION WITH THE NEW BRUNSWICK GOVERNMENT Q2. Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied with the New Very satisfied 7% Brunswick government led by NET SATISFIED Brian Gallant? Base: All respondents (n=500) 42% Somewhat satisfied 35% Somewhat dissatisfied 27% NET DISSATISFIED 46% Very dissatisfied 19% I don't know / refusal 12% 6 SATISFACTION WITH THE NEW BRUNSWICK GOVERNMENT – DETAILED RESULTS Q2. Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied with the New Brunswick government led by Brian Gallant? Base: All respondents Rest of Non TOTAL Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ Moncton St-Jean Fredericton Franco NB Franco Weighted n = 500 242 258 114 168 215 97 84 69 250 149 350 Unweighted n = 500 231 269 122 171 204 186 71 83 160 200 297 NET SATISFIED 42% 45% 39% 55% 45% 33% 48% 36% 41% 42% 50% 39% Very satisfied 7% 9% 6% 16% 4% 6% 9% 6% 6% 8% 9% 7% Somewhat satisfied 35% 36% 33% 39% 42% 28% 40% 31% 34% 34% 42% 32% NET DISSATISFIED 46% 48% 44% 34% 44% 54% 42% 52% 57% 42% 37% 50% Somewhat dissatisfied 27% 27% 27% 23% 27% 29% 19% 37% 40% 23% 27% 27% Very dissatisfied 19% 21% 16% 11% 16% 25% 23% 15% 17% 19% 11% 22% I don’t know 6% 3% 9% 9% 10% 2% 6% 9% 0% 7% 5% 7% Refusal 6% 3% 8% 2% 2% 11% 4% 3% 2% 9% 7% 5% 7 BEST PREMIER OF NEW BRUNSWICK Q3. In your opinion, which provincial party leader would make the best premier of New Brunswick? Base : All respondents (n=500) 28% 11% 8% 7% 6% Note: The complement to 100% corresponds to “Other,” None of them,” “I don’t know” and “Refusal” responses. 8 SECOND CHOICE – ACCORDING TO VOTING INTENTIONS Q4. If you could not vote for Q1A/Q1B, what would be your second choice? Base: Respondents who intend to vote for the LPNB, the CPNB, the GPNB, the NPDNB or the PANB TOTAL LPNB CPNB PANB GPNB NDPNB Weighted n = 375 164 107 39 33 32 Unweighted n = 387 174 104 34 36 39 ...Brian Gallant's New Brunswick Liberal Party 12% - 18% 7% 32% 33% ...Blaine Higgs' Progressive Conservative Party 14% 22% - 29% 6% 13% of New Brunswick ...Kris Austin's People’s Alliance of New 8% 5% 14% - 0% 21% Brunswick ...David Coon's Green Party of New Brunswick 18% 20% 13% 35% - 20% ...Jennifer McKenzie's New Democratic Party of 17% 20% 18% 2% 31% - New Brunswick ...another party 2% 0% 3% 5% 0% 3% I would not vote 9% 8% 12% 2% 17% 0% I would cancel my vote 6% 8% 6% 1% 1% 2% I don’t know 15% 15% 14% 18% 13% 10% Refusal 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 9 EXPECTED WINNER Q5. In your opinion, which of the following parties will win the elections on September 24th? Is it... Base : All respondents Rest of Non TOTAL Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ Moncton St-Jean Fredericton Franco NB Franco Weighted n = 500 242 258 114 168 215 97 84 69 250 149 350 Unweighted n = 500 231 269 122 171 204 186 71 83 160 200 297 ...Brian Gallant's New Brunswick 46% 46% 45% 43% 56% 40% 49% 40% 39% 48% 63% 39% Liberal Party ...Blaine Higgs' Progressive Conservative Party of New 17% 21% 12% 14% 13% 21% 20% 18% 14% 16% 10% 19% Brunswick ...Kris Austin's People’s Alliance of 4% 5% 2% 7% 5% 1% 1% 0% 14% 3% 0% 5% New Brunswick ...David Coon's Green Party of New 3% 5% 1% 6% 3% 1% 1% 1% 9% 3% 0% 4% Brunswick ...Jennifer McKenzie's New 1% 2% 0% 2% 2% 0% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 1% Democratic Party of New Brunswick ...another party 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% I don’t know 27% 19% 35% 26% 20% 34% 25% 32% 22% 28% 22% 29% Refusal 2% 1% 3% 1% 1% 3% 1% 6% 2% 2% 4% 2% 10 EXPECTED WINNER – ACCORDING TO VOTING INTENTIONS Q5. In your opinion, which of the following parties will win the elections on September 24th? Is it... Base: Respondents who intend to vote for the LPNB, the CPNB, the GPNB, the NPDNB or the PANB TOTAL LPNB CPNB PANB GPNB NDPNB Weighted n = 500 164 126 39 33 32 Unweighted n = 500 174 117 34 36 39 ...Brian Gallant's New Brunswick Liberal Party 46% 83% 23% 30% 33% 43% ...Blaine Higgs' Progressive Conservative Party 17% 3% 40% 19% 15% 28% of New Brunswick ...Kris Austin's People’s Alliance of New 4% 3% 2% 23% 2% 0% Brunswick ...David Coon's Green Party of New Brunswick 3% 0% 5% 0% 28% 0% ...Jennifer McKenzie's New Democratic Party of 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 13% New Brunswick ...another party 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% I don’t know 27% 11% 29% 26% 22% 17% Refusal 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 11 APPENDIX DETAILED METHODOLOGY Sampling Frame Participants were randomly selected from LegerWeb’s online panel. Leger owns and manages an Internet panel that includes more than 400,000 Canadians coast to coast. An online panel consists of Web users profiled according to different demographic variables. The majority of Leger’s panel members (60%) were randomly recruited over the phone in the past ten years, which makes this panel very similar to the current Canadian population on a number of demographic characteristics. Moreover, 35% of panellists were recruited through affiliate programs and 5% through partner campaigns and programs. To be eligible, respondents were required to be 18 years of age or older and have the right to vote in New Brunswick.