COMMITTEE OF THE WHOLE WORKING SESSION JULY 15, 2019
REPORT #ENG-2019-22
TRANSIT FEASIBILITY STUDY
RECOMMENDATION
That Report #ENG-2019-22 be received;
And further that the presentation by John Hubble of HDR Corporation in support of the substantially complete Transit Feasibility Study Report provided as Attachment No. 1 to Report #ENG-2019-22 be received;
And further that Route Option A2 being the preferred Transit Service Route Option as Attachment No. 1 to Report #ENG-2019-22 be endorsed;
And further that Route Option C being the secondary alternative Transit Service Route Option as Attachment No. 1 to Report #ENG-2019-22 be endorsed;
And further that staff be directed to advise the County of Simcoe of the endorsed route and to coordinate with the County of Simcoe the implementation of the proposed LINX transit route for connection between Alliston and Bradford GO Station as outlined in Attachment No. 1 to Report #ENG-2019-22;
And further that staff be directed to bring forward a 2020 Capital Budget Sheet for Council's consideration to undertake the Transit Implementation Strategy Study.
OBJECTIVE
To provide Council with a Committee of the Whole Working Session to review the substantially complete Transit Feasibility Study report completed by HDR Corporation (HDR) dated July 2019.
BACKGROUND
On February 04, 2019, Report #ENG-2018-43 was approved by Council to retain HDR Corporation Ltd. to undertake the preparation of the Multi Modal Active Transportation Master Plan study. The preparation of the Transit Feasibility Study report was scope identified as part of the Multi Modal Active Transportation Master Plan study.
On May 13, - 2019 - 03. Council 2019, provided the Council received Report#CAO following direction:
Report #ENG-2019-22, July 15, 2019
"when the Transportation Master Plan is completed a Committee of the Whole Working Session be held".
It is Staff's understanding that the Committee of the Whole Working Session was being requested to review the Transit Feasibility Study. In keeping with this direction, the substantially complete Transit Feasibility Study is being presented at this Committee of the Whole Working Session.
COMMENTS AND CONSIDERATIONS
The Transit Feasibility Study assesses feasibility of implementing transit service to the residents of the Town of New Tecumseth and provides various level of service options. Three Transit Service types and multiple Transit Service Route Options (including sub options) have been included in the substantially complete report as feasible alternatives for implementing transit service in the Town. John Hubble from HDR is in attendance to provide a presentation to the Committee of the Whole on the analysis that has been completed to date as part of the Transit Feasibility Study.
Based on the findings and recommendations of this study, Staff would support Council in endorsing Route Option A2 as the preferred alternative and Route Option C as the secondary alternative and further direct staff to investigate these routes in more detail by undertaking a Transit Implementation Strategy Study that would provide additional information on routing, scheduling, fare recommendations, detailed cost estimates for infrastructure requirements and review of Alternative Accessible transportation. The endorsed route option and the associated costing will get reviewed again through the Transit Implementation Strategy Study and will be updated based on the findings on that study and also through coordination with the County of Simcoe.
Staff should also be directed to coordinate with the County of Simcoe on the routing of the proposed LINX transit route between Alliston and Bradford GO Station to ensure that it would incorporate into the Town's endorsed Route Option A2.
FINANCIAL CONSIDERATIONS
There are no financial considerations to be included as part of receiving this report. However, financial obligations will be included for undertaking a Transit Implementation Strategy Study to further review and investigate the endorsed Route Option's which would ultimately assist the Town in implementing a transit system. This would be addressed through the 2020 Budget process.
Respectfully submitted:
Page 2 of 58 Report #ENG-2019-22, July 15, 2019
______Kamran Khurshid, EIT Engineering Coordinator
Attachments:
□ 2019-07-10_MMATMP-TFS-v5-DRAFT#4
Approved By: Department: Status: Rick Vatri, C.E.T., Director of Engineering Approved - 11 Jul 2019 Engineering and Development Blaine Parkin, P. Eng., CAO CAO Approved - 11 Jul 2019
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Transit Feasibility Study
Town of New Tecumseth July 2019
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Contents
1 Introduction ...... 1 2 Context ...... 1 2.1 Planning Context ...... 1 2.2 Existing Conditions ...... 2 2.2.1 Regional Context ...... 2 2.2.2 Town of New Tecumseth ...... 3 2.2.3 Existing Transit Service and Regional Connections ...... 7 2.3 Future Considerations ...... 8 2.3.1 Population Growth ...... 8 2.3.2 Currently Planned Improvements ...... 9 3 Travel Demand Context ...... 12 3.1 TTS Data ...... 12 3.1.1 Travel Patterns ...... 12 3.1.2 Mode Share ...... 15 3.2 Public Feedback ...... 15 3.2.1 Online Survey ...... 16 3.2.2 Community Pop-up Kiosks ...... 19 3.3 Future Travel Demand ...... 21 3.4 Potential Market Share ...... 22 3.5 Summary of Travel Demand Context ...... 23 4 Transit Goals and Vision ...... 24 4.1 Strategic Goals ...... 24 4.2 Best Practices ...... 24 4.3 Goals and Vision for Transit in New Tecumseth ...... 25 4.4 Accessible Services ...... 26 5 Transit Service Alternatives ...... 26 5.1 Transit Service Types ...... 26 5.2 County Transit Service Route Options ...... 27 5.3 Option A...... 27 5.3.1 Option A1: On-demand ...... 28 5.3.2 Option A2: Fixed Route ...... 30 5.4 Option B...... 32 5.4.1 Option B1: On-demand ...... 32 5.4.2 Option B2: Fixed Route ...... 34 5.5 Option C: Demand Responsive / Rideshare ...... 36 6 Costing Methodology and Assumptions ...... 37 6.1 Transit System Comparisons ...... 37 6.2 Preliminary Cost Estimates ...... 39 6.2.1 Capital Costs ...... 39 6.2.2 Annual Operating Costs ...... 40 7 Evaluation of Transit Service Alternatives ...... 41 7.1 Evaluation Criteria ...... 41
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7.2 Evaluation of Alternatives ...... 41 8 Conclusions / Next Steps ...... 44
Tables
Table 2-1: New Tecumseth Demographics ...... 4 Table 2-2: Population Growth ...... 9 Table 3-1: Daily Regional Trips ...... 12 Table 3-2: Daily Internal Trips ...... 13 Table 3-3: 2016 Peer Review Statistics ...... 23 Table 5-1: Option A1 Preliminary Cost Estimates ...... 30 Table 5-2: Option A2 Preliminary Cost Estimates ...... 31 Table 5-3: Option B1 Preliminary Cost Estimates ...... 34 Table 5-4: Option B2 Preliminary Cost Estimates ...... 36 Table 6-1: Transit System Comparison (CUTA Data) ...... 38 Table 6-2: Specialized Transit System Comparison (CUTA Data) ...... 39 Table 6-3: Estimated Annual Operating Cost for an On-Demand Service ...... 40 Table 7-1: Detailed Analysis of Transit Service Alternatives ...... 42 Table 7-2: Evaluation of Transit Service Alternatives ...... 43
Figures
Figure 2-1: Town of New Tecumseth ...... 3 Figure 2-2: Alliston Land Use ...... 5 Figure 2-3: Beeton Land Use ...... 6 Figure 2-4: Tottenham Land Use ...... 7 Figure 2-5: RER Service - Barrie GO Rail Line ...... 10 Figure 3-1: Daily Regional Travel ...... 13 Figure 3-2: Daily Internal Travel ...... 14 Figure 3-3: Mode Share (Daily Trips) ...... 15 Figure 3-4: Ranking of Concerns ...... 16 Figure 3-5: Online Survey Responses Regarding Transit ...... 18 Figure 3-6: Tottenham Home Show and Artisan Market Comments ...... 19 Figure 3-7: New Tecumseth Home and Leisure Show Comments...... 20 Figure 3-8: Summary of Community Pop-up Comments Related to Transit Needs ...... 21 Figure 3-9: New Tecumseth Subdivision Development Applications ...... 22 Figure 5-1: Option A1 Transit Service ...... 29 Figure 5-2: Option A2 Transit Service ...... 31 Figure 5-3: Option B1 Transit Service ...... 33 Figure 5-4: Option B2 Transit Service ...... 35
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Appendices
Appendix A. GO Transit Route Maps ...... 45
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1 Introduction
The Town of New Tecumseth has initiated the Multi Modal Active Transportation Master Plan (MMATMP) Study, a long-term strategy to develop a multi-modal transportation system that is safe, efficient, economical, convenient and comfortable for all users. This study will assess the Town’s short term and long term multimodal transportation infrastructure needs, including vehicular, transit, cycling, and pedestrian infrastructure, to accommodate the anticipated population growth and the development of the employment lands. As part of larger study, a Transit Feasibility Study (TFS) is being conducted to examine the options and feasibility of providing transit service to the Town of New Tecumseth. Once a feasible option (or options) are identified, further study is required such as a Transit Implementation Study to determine additional details including but not limited to initial stop locations, fares, vehicles, and an annual service plan and budget for the next three to five years.
2 Context 2.1 Planning Context Several studies and planning documents were reviewed to provide an understanding of previous service considerations and objectives and to inform the TFS. This includes: Ontario Ministry of Transportation, Simcoe Area Multi-Modal Transportation Strategy Needs Assessment (2014); County of Simcoe, Official Plan (2013); County of Simcoe, Transportation Master Plan Update (2014); County of Simcoe, Transit Feasibility and Implementation Study (2016); County of Simcoe, LINX Transit Service Expansion (2019); Town of New Tecumseth, Official Plan (Approved by Simcoe County. January 2019); Town of Bradford West Gwillimbury, Bradford Transit Feasibility Study (2012); Town of Bradford West Gwillimbury, Transit Implementation Plan (2012); Town of Innisfil – Demand Responsive Transit Plans (Council Reports) Transportation Association of Canada, Conference Paper ‘Right-sizing Transit: What Is a Reasonable Level of Transit Investment?’ (2010); and Previous proposals raised by Alan Masters of Masters Consulting Group.
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2.2 Existing Conditions
2.2.1 Regional Context The Town of New Tecumseth is situated within the County of Simcoe in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). The Town is an amalgamation of several urban communities and rural lands within an area of 275 km2 of Simcoe County. There are three main urban settlement areas: Alliston, Tottenham, and Beeton. Alliston is the largest settlement area and has been identified as a primary settlement area in Simcoe County’s Planning Areas (2018). The Town is bordered by the Township of Essa to the north, the Town of Innisfil to the northeast, the Town of Bradford West-Gwillimbury to the east, the Township of King to the south, the Town of Caledon to the southwest, and the Township of Adjala-Tosorontio to the west. New Tecumseth is served by a grid network of east-west and north-south roadways. Highway 89 and Highway 9 from the north and south community boundaries, respectively. With County Road 50, County Road 10, County Road 27 and County Road 1 passing through or adjacent to New Tecumseth. The Highway 400 linking Barrie and Toronto, runs north-south approximately 5 kilometers to the east of the Town. By road, the Town of Bradford West Gwillimbury is approximately 20 kilometers east of Beeton via 10th Side Road, 7th Line, and County Road 88. The City of Vaughan is approximately 48 kilometers south from Tottenham via Highway 9 and Highway 400. The City of Barrie is approximately 38 kilometers north-east of Alliston via Highway 89 and Highway 400. Figure 2-1 highlights the location of each community in relation to the municipal boundary and the local highway network.
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Figure 2-1: Town of New Tecumseth
2.2.2 Town of New Tecumseth
Demographics To identify and understand demographics, census information for the Town of New Tecumseth was extracted from Statistics Canada (2016 Census). Table 2-1 provides population figures and statistics related to age, dwelling, and median income for the Town. It illustrates that New Tecumseth is a rapidly growing community. Growth in recent years has been concentrated in Alliston and Tottenham. New
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Tecumseth also has a relatively high median household income, especially in Beeton and the rural areas.
Table 2-1: New Tecumseth Demographics Average Population Annual Change % of Single Detached Median Area Population Houses (% of Household 2011 – 2016 – 2016 20182 Aged 15-64 Dwelling) Income (pretax) 2016 2018 Alliston1 19,340 21,430 4.7% 2.1% 60% 63% $82,010 Tottenham 5,380 7,730 2.6% 7.5% 71% 62% $86,900 Beeton 4,030 4,330 1.1% 1.4% 70% 85% $95,660 Rural Area 6,560 6,560 0.6% 0.0% 65% 96% $92,260 New 35,310 40,050 3.1% 2.5% 64% 71% $85,990 Tecumseth Simcoe 1.5% 66% 74% $76,490 County Ontario 0.9% 67% 54% $74,290 Source: 2016 Census Canada Notes: 1Alliston also includes the areas of Briar Hills and Treetops, as built to 2016. 22018 population numbers were provided by the Town of New Tecumseth.
Land Use The Town of New Tecumseth is a rural area that is primarily comprised of agricultural lands. The Town has also identified lands which have two levels of environmental protection and has lands belonging to the Oak Ridges Moraine Area. The three urban settlement areas have a variety of land uses and are detailed in the following sections.
Alliston Figure 2-2 illustrates the land use for the Alliston settlement area. Although not show on the map, the amendments to the Official Plan in the northern and eastern areas of Alliston are home to new residential and major commercial developments. Major trip generators within the Town include: Banting Memorial High School at Victoria Street and Lorne Street; Honda of Canada Manufacturing plant at Industrial Parkway and County Road 10; Baxter Canada Manufacturing Facility on Centre Street New Tecumseth Recreation Centre at Industrial Parkway and Ellis Street; Stevenson Memorial Hospital on Fletcher Crescent; Valeo Canada manufacturing at Industrial Parkway and Church Street; Walmart Supercentre and SmartCentres Alliston at Industrial Parkway and Victoria Street; and Major commercial uses along Young Street between Industrial Parkway and King Street (shops include Canadian Tire, Zehrs, Goodlife Fitness, FreshCo SportChek, several restaurants, and fast food chains).
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Downtown core commercial uses, corridor commercial, and downtown core transitional uses are found along Victoria Street. It can be assumed that the Victoria Street corridor experiences high volumes of traffic due to the variety of uses.
Figure 2-2: Alliston Land Use
Source: Town of New Tecumseth Official Plan. Schedule B1 (May 2019)
Beeton Figure 2-3 shows the land use for Beeton. It mainly comprises low density residential, with some downtown traditional commercial, downtown core commercial, and corridor commercial along County Road 1 / 8th Line between Tecumseth Street and Simcoe Manor. Other major generators within Beeton include the Beeton Memorial Arena and Borden Metal Products.
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Figure 2-3: Beeton Land Use
Source: Town of New Tecumseth Official Plan. Schedule B2 (May 2019)
Tottenham The land use for the settlement area of Tottenham is illustrated in Figure 2-4. There is significant urban residential and employment uses within the settlement area. Major trip generators include: Tottenham Community Centre at Queen Street and Fraser Avenue; Foodland and the Home Hardware at the shopping plaza at Nolan Road and Queen Street; St. Thomas Aquinas Catholic Secondary School at Tottenham Road and Nolan Road / 5th Line; and Vince’s Market and Tottenham Mall at Queen Street and Rogers Road. The downtown core transitional and downtown core commercial uses along Queen Street and along 4th Line are also expected to attract a significant number of trips. In addition, No Frills is coming to Tottenham and is expected to attract a significant number of trips.
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Figure 2-4: Tottenham Land Use
Source: Town of New Tecumseth Official Plan. Schedule B3 (May 2019)
2.2.3 Existing Transit Service and Regional Connections
Town of New Tecumseth
The Town currently does not provide any transit services. However, the Town offers a Community Transportation Program for residents at least 65-years-old or with special mobility assistance requirements. The program provides transportation to qualifying residents for medical appointments or procedures within the Town as well as once per week transportation for grocery shopping and to attend the 54Plus Club. The service utilizes local taxi companies for transportation, and users are reimbursed fare costs by the Town up to the user paid portion of the fare. The user paid portion of the fare is $3.00 per trip in-town and $5.00 per trip between communities.
Regional Connections Although there is no current transit service provided in the Town of New Tecumseth, there are transit services which provide inter-regional connections that are close to the Town. This includes: GO Bus Route 37 runs between Orangeville and the Brampton GO rail station. Orangeville is approximately 28 kilometers west of Tottenham. The service provides weekday hourly service in the peak direction during peak periods only;
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GO Bus Route 38 runs between Bolton and the Malton GO rail station. The nearest stop is approximately 19 kilometers south of Tottenham. The service provides weekday hourly service in the peak direction during peak periods only; GO Bus Route 66 runs from the East Gwillimbury GO rail station to the Yorkdale Bus Terminal via Highway 400. The route stops at the Park & Ride site at the junction of Highway 9 and Highway 400, approximately 20 kilometers from Tottenham. It provides approximately hourly service, both ways, from 5 AM to 8PM; GO Bus Route 68 runs between Bradford and Barrie. The closest stop (Highway 89 and County Road 4) is 11 kilometers east of the border of New Tecumseth, or 23 kilometers east of Alliston; Barrie GO Rail Line connects the Allandale Waterfront GO Station in the City of Barrie to Union Station in the City of Toronto. The Bradford GO rail station offers the closest connection to the Town and is approximately 20 kilometers east of Beeton. From the Bradford GO station, trains run during the peak period and only in the peak direction, with 10 trains departing between 5:20 AM and 9:20 AM and 10 trains arriving between 3:50 PM to midnight; and Barrie Transit Route 90 connects the Allandale Waterfront GO Station in the City of Barrie to CFB Borden in the settlement area of Angus within the Township of Essa. CFB Borden is approximately 13.5 kilometers north of Alliston and is served by 10 buses throughout the day. Appendix A provides the route maps and stops for the above listed routes. 2.3 Future Considerations
2.3.1 Population Growth Based on the Town’s Official Plan (2018) the Town is expected to grow significantly to 2031. Table 2-2 summarizes the population growth for the Town. Tottenham will experience the most significant relative growth between 2016 and 2031, doubling in size. It is noted also that most of the growth in Tottenham has been completed since 2016.
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Table 2-2: Population Growth Population Area 2016 2031 % Growth Alliston 19,340 28,055 45% Beeton 4,030 7,425 84% Tottenham 5,380 12,335 129% Rural 6,560 8,185 25% New Tecumseth 35,310 56,000 59% Source: Town of New Tecumseth Official Plan (2018)
2.3.2 Currently Planned Improvements
Simcoe County LINX In 2017, Simcoe County Council approved the County’s Transit Implementation Plan to create a regional transit service. LINX is a public transit system that is owned and operated by the County of Simcoe. Launched in 2018, it currently operates one route, connecting the City of Barrie to the Town of Penetanguishene. Another three routes are planned, with service to begin in August 2019. As part of Simcoe County’s Transit Implementation Plan, LINX is currently in the planning stages to create an hourly transit service connecting Alliston to the Bradford GO Station in Bradford West-Gwillimbury. Although the specific routing has yet to be determined, this report will consider potential LINX routes in order to identify how best to integrate local transit service with the County’s planned service. Where appropriate, the Town may also make recommendations to the County to inform the planning work.
Regional Express Rail Regional Express Rail (RER) is a 10-year program identified by Metrolinx which will provide improved transit service to its regional network. To provide this improved service, Metrolinx is planning on electrification of its tracks and will construct a second track (track twinning). As a result, GO Transit will be able to run trains more frequently and will be able to provide all-day service with faster electric trains. For the Barrie Rail Line and the Bradford GO Station, RER would provide new 30 minute service during the weekday peak periods in the peak direction and 60 minute service in both directions during the midday, evening, and weekends. Figure 2-5 illustrates the Barrie GO Rail Line service with RER.
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Figure 2-5: RER Service - Barrie GO Rail Line
Source: Metrolinx RER, Barrie GO Line
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With improved transit service at the Bradford GO Station and a new County transit route connecting Alliston to the Bradford GO Station, residents will have improved access to transit services.
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3 Travel Demand Context
The following sub-sections establish the existing travel demand for the Town for input on potential markets for transit services. 3.1 TTS Data The Transportation Tomorrow Survey (TTS) is a household travel survey conducted every 5 years in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA). It is a voluntary online and telephone survey with a 5% sample size (i.e. 5% of households within a certain geographic area are surveyed). 2016 survey results have been extracted to analyze the travel trends for the Town. It is important to note that TTS has been estimated to focus more on commuter travel patterns and tends to underestimate recreational trips.
3.1.1 Travel Patterns Regional and internal travel patterns were extracted from the 2016 TTS data in order to identify the needs and opportunities for the transportation network.
Regional Table 3-1 and Source: 2016 Transportation Tomorrow Survey Figure 3-1 illustrate the daily inbound and outbound trips for the Town. A total of 98,570 trips have an origin or destination within the Town of New Tecumseth, with 31,750 (32%) of those trips internal to the Town (i.e. both origin and destination are within the boundary of New Tecumseth). The inbound and outbound trips for each area remain relatively equal, indicating that the majority of these trips represent commuter travel patterns. With major employers and a hospital serving a wide catchment area, there are many trip generators within the Town.
Table 3-1: Daily Regional Trips Ending in New Tecumseth Beginning in New Tecumseth Total Two-Way (Inbound) (Outbound) Trips Area No. of % of No. of Trips % of Total No. of Trips % of Total Trips Total New Tecumseth 31,750 49% 31,750 49% 31,750 32% City of Barrie 4,410 7% 4,260 7% 8,670 9% Town of Innisfil 1,880 3% 1,950 3% 3,830 4% Township of Essa 3,550 5% 3,500 5% 7,050 7% Township of Adjala- 3,830 6% 4,020 6% 7,850 7% Tosorontio Town of Bradford West- 1,060 1% 920 1% 1,980 2% Gwillimbury Rest of Simcoe County 2,340 4% 2,360 4% 4,700 5% York Region 6,380 1% 6,180 10% 12,560 13% City of Toronto 3,020 4% 2,890 4% 5,910 6% Peel Region 3,910 6% 3,920 6% 7,830 8% Other 3,300 5% 3,140 5% 6,440 7% Total 65,430 - 64,890 - 98,570
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Source: 2016 Transportation Tomorrow Survey
Figure 3-1: Daily Regional Travel
Source: 2016 Transportation Tomorrow Survey
Internal Table 3-2 and Figure 3-2 summarize daily trips internal to the Town. The majority of daily trips are internal to Alliston (59%). Travel between settlement areas is relatively low, accounting for only 10% of daily trips. As mentioned above, travel between the settlement areas are relatively equal, indicating commuter travel patterns.
Table 3-2: Daily Internal Trips To / From Alliston Beeton Tottenham Rural Areas Total Alliston 18,710 590 510 1,930 21,740 Beeton 540 770 250 540 2,100 Tottenham 570 230 1,890 600 3,290 Rural Areas 1,980 560 490 1,600 4,630 Total 21,800 2,150 3,140 4,670 31,760 Source: 2016 Transportation Tomorrow Survey
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Note: Figures for Alliston includes Briar Hills and Green Briar (developments west of 10th Side Road). Due to the boundaries of TTS zones, estimates for Tree Tops and New Tecumseth Pines are not included.
Figure 3-2: Daily Internal Travel
Source: 2016 Transportation Tomorrow Survey
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Note: Figures for Alliston includes Briar Hills and Green Briar (developments west of 10th Side Road). Due to the boundaries of TTS zones, estimates for Tree Tops and New Tecumseth Pines are not included.
3.1.2 Mode Share Figure 3-3 illustrates the mode share for daily trips to and from the Town. The majority of trips are made by the automobile, with a 96% mode share (auto driver and auto passenger). Transit trips do not account for a percentage as there are relatively few transit trips (360 transit trips).
Figure 3-3: Mode Share (Daily Trips)
Source: 2016 Transportation Tomorrow Survey
3.2 Public Feedback Public consultation with stakeholders, agencies, and the general public is a key component of the larger TMP study. Although in the initial phases, public feedback on transit has been collected from the online survey and two community pop-up events.
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3.2.1 Online Survey At the onset of the project, an online, attitudinal survey was conducted to give Town residents an opportunity to answer pointed questions about how they travel through the Town and beyond today, their opinion on key transportation issues, and if they have any ideas about how to improve transportation in the future. The purpose of the survey was to understand how people travel in the Town of New Tecumseth, how their travel behaviour might change with the introduction of active transportation infrastructure and transit services, how important certain factors might be to change their travel behaviour, and allowed residents the opportunity to comment on any existing issues they might experience that the survey did not cover. The survey was accessible through a variety of forums and events. A link to the survey was posted on the Town’s project website and was advertised on social media, including the Town’s Facebook and Twitter accounts. Hard copies were also provided at the Town Hall and at the community pop-ups. The survey is currently active, therefore the findings presented below are draft. A total of 73 survey responses were analyzed.
Ranking of Concerns Respondents were asked to rank the following concerns from 1-8, with 1 being the most important and 8 being the least important. Responses show that the most important concern to them was the lack of transit services, as illustrated in Figure 3-4 below.
Figure 3-4: Ranking of Concerns
Rank Concern
1 Provide public transit or micro-transit (taxi) services
2 Improve maintenance of existing road network
3 Improve road safety for all road users
4 Install more sidewalks
5 Reduce road / traffic congestion
6 Install trails and pathways
7 Install bicycle lanes
8 Truck traffic and dedicated routes
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Transit Services Transit services was a section in the survey which focused solely on asking questions about transit. Figure 3-5 illustrates the questions and responses regarding the transit services section.
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Figure 3-5: Online Survey Responses Regarding Transit Page 26 of58
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3.2.2 Community Pop-up Kiosks Community pop-up kiosks are a great way to maximize the project’s reach by popping up in busy locations where people are already gathering. This involved setting up a visually appealing display in areas of high foot traffic for a short period of time and attracting passerby to participate for a few minutes. Two pop-up kiosk events have been held: April 13, 2019: Tottenham Home Show and Artisan Market. Approximately 80- 100 people were engaged with at the event; and April 27, 2019: New Tecumseth Home & Leisure Show. Approximately 70-90 people were engaged with at the event. May 25, 2019: Beeton Honey and Garden Festival. The study team had planned to attend this event; however it was cancelled due to inclement weather conditions. As a way to provide feedback, attendees were given post-it notes to provide comments on following question: What ideas do you have to improve travel in the Town of New Tecumseth? Figure 3-6 and Figure 3-7 display the number of answers to the question at each event.
Figure 3-6: Tottenham Home Show and Artisan Market Comments
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An emerging theme from the two events was a clear support for transit. Residents generally responded positively to bringing some form of public transit to New Tecumseth, with some reflecting that there used to be an informal transit service operated privately by an Alliston resident, within Alliston. There was broad support for a range of transportation services and corridors both within the Town and external to the Town. Internal transit service was suggested for within the settlement area of Alliston including serving the Nottawasaga Inn, as well as between the settlement areas of Alliston, Beeton, and Tottenham. In terms of key external destinations, comments suggested public transit connections to locations such as the GO station in Bradford or Newmarket, Toronto, Loretto, Bolton, Angus, Newmarket Mall, and the shopping mall in Barrie. Residents were open to the idea of a fixed route bus, and also seemed interested in dial-a-ride or ride-share services similar to Uber operations in Innisfil. They also recognized that the need was especially true for youth and seniors who otherwise would have no way to travel in the Town without their own automobile. A visual summary of locations where residents identified opportunities for improvement in posted comments is shown in Figure 3-8.
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Figure 3-8: Summary of Community Pop-up Comments Related to Transit Needs
3.3 Future Travel Demand Based on the planned population growth, travel between the existing settlement areas will increase, and as new developments are constructed, transit routes should consider these new growth areas. Figure 3-9 illustrates the locations of approved, registered, and proposed developments. As these developments are built, transit planning should consider how to serve these areas.
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3.4 Potential Market Share A review of 2016 population, density, and transit mode share for similar municipalities with transit services was conducted to estimate the potential transit mode share for New Tecumseth. Table 3-3 shows that areas of similar density, population, or in close proximity to the Town experience a transit mode share between 1-2%. As the transit mode share for any initial service is expected to be relatively low and would vary depending on the type, frequency, and quality of service, a 1% transit mode share was applied to existing TTS trips to calculate a conservative estimate of transit ridership.
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Table 3-3: 2016 Peer Review Statistics Daily Trips Transit Density2 Population2 Area Mode Share1 (persons/km2) City of Barrie 2% 1,428 141,430 County of Simcoe 1% 99 479,650 Bradford West 1% 176 35,330 Gwillimbury Niagara-on-the-Lake 1% 132 17,510 New Tecumseth - 125 34,240 Source: 12016 Transportation Tomorrow Survey 22016 Census Canada Statistics 3.5 Summary of Travel Demand Context Based on a review of the travel demand context, several conclusions were drawn: There is a need to serve both commuter and recreational travel destinations; Public feedback from the online survey has indicated that majority of respondents support a fixed transit route connecting the three settlement areas; Connecting the three settlement areas is further supported by the future potential development patterns where new development are primarily within the existing settlement areas, or between the three settlement areas Feedback from residents have indicated support for transit connections to areas including Bradford GO, Newmarket, Toronto, Barrie, and Angus; and Based on the findings of Simcoe County’s Transit Implementation Plan, the County deemed the Alliston to Bradford GO connection a priority for transit service implementation and was therefore included in their Phase 2 implementation. The above considerations were taken into account when developing the transit service alternatives in Section 5. As Simcoe County’s LINX transit service focuses on providing inter-municipal transit connections, the transit service alternatives for New Tecumseth will focus on transit service within the Town.
Page 31 of 58 | 23 Transit Feasibility Study Town of New Tecumseth 4 Transit Goals and Vision 4.1 Strategic Goals Although each municipality has unique requirements, public transit is generally implemented to help communities be more sustainable from social, economic, and environmental perspectives. Specifically, transit is implemented within communities to accomplish the following: Social Goal – Transit provides mobility for those individuals who are unable to transport themselves due to a variety reasons. With improved mobility, all residents may be more involved in the community, and have better access to job, health, educational and social opportunities. Economic Goal – Transit reduces the individual cost of travel and reduces community costs by reducing required infrastructure and maintenance. Environmental Goal – Transit reduces the environmental impact of travel. The design of transit service is very much dependent on the community’s form and their aspirations for a specific type of service. Community form influences what is possible from a transit network perspective. Whereas, community aspiration influences the type of transit service the community wishes to develop – a focus on general community transit service coverage or development of higher ridership along defined corridors. 4.2 Best Practices The desire for implementing transit in a relatively small communities is commonly driven by the mobility needs for transportation dependent individuals, such as seniors, youth, and low income individuals. As such, providing the initial transit service is often considered a social service which requires public funding and subsidies. Despite the investment and intent, many new transit systems in small municipalities are unsuccessful, primarily due to low ridership and unsustainable operating costs. However, the risks of implementing a new transit system can be mitigated by the following best practices: Clearly define goals and priorities – It is important to understand why a community is considering public transit, such that the system is designed appropriately. As there are tradeoffs between the limited available funding and the level of service that can be provided, the goals of serving different needs should be prioritized to focus on core needs. However, a system that can address more than one service need while using the same resources is likely to be more successful. Start small and build on successes – It is important to avoid piloting services which won’t be cost effective in the long term. The most successful solution would be scalable as the community and ridership grow. Rather than designing an elaborate system that attempts to serve all needs within the community, municipalities should start with a small system that focuses on the core needs of the community. When a new transit system is implemented, it takes time for travel patterns and habits to adapt, and for transit ridership to grow. Often, the high operating costs of an elaborate system do not to seem to be justified by the
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low initial ridership. It is better to start small, and grow the transit service by building on small successes. Focus on a core market, rather than on service coverage – With the same resources, a traditional transit service with wider service area coverage and longer service hours will have a lower service frequency. Rather than spreading resources thinly over a large service area and longer span of service, it is more beneficial to focus resources and provide higher quality transit service for a core market of riders. This starter transit service can be expanded as ridership grows. Price transit service reasonably – Small municipalities often start to provide transit as a social service, and hence charge low transit fares. However, transit fare structure should be reasonable for both the rider and the service provider. Low transit fares result in uncaptured revenue and cause the operating costs of a system to be unsustainable. In addition, ridership is generally inelastic to the cost of transit, and is more positively affected by the quality and amount of service. The transportation cost of alternative modes and travel distance should also be considered, and the transit service should be priced at a reasonable market rate for comparable travel. Integrate transit with land use and active transportation – An individual’s trip is the entire journey from origin to destination. The “first and last portion” of a transit journey is typically through active transportation (walking or cycling). To access and use transit, bus stops need to be integrated with safe, accessible, and convenient pedestrian connections. Land use and community design also play a role, as walking and cycling connectivity within a community reduces the reliance on motorized transportation. In addition, denser land uses where major origins and destinations can be connected with a direct route are more supportive of transit. Consider non-traditional forms of public transit service – Although scheduled fixed route transit services are most common and are effective in serving a higher volume of trips along defined corridors it is important to consider other forms of transit service. There are multiple forms of on demand small vehicle services that may be more effective in smaller, dispersed or developing transit markets. Service examples range from on demand shared ride taxi, transportation network companies like Uber and Lyft, flexible routing of small buses and shared service with specialized transit services. 4.3 Goals and Vision for Transit in New Tecumseth Building on the three strategic goals, best practices, travel patterns and the public feedback, specific goals for a new transit service are identified to guide the development of transit service options: Provide improved access and opportunities to employment, institutional, and recreation uses; Provide residents the ability to move without the strain of purchasing a second vehicle; and Improve mobility for residents, including those with disabilities.
Page 33 of 58 | 25 Transit Feasibility Study Town of New Tecumseth 4.4 Accessible Services With the Accessibility for Ontarians with Disabilities Act (AODA), accessible transit services are often packaged with conventional transit services. According to the regulation:
“Except where not practicable to do so, a conventional transportation service provider that does not provide specialized transportation services shall ensure that any person with a disability who, because of his or her disability, is unable to use conventional transportation services is provided with an alternative accessible method of transportation.”
The Town would not initially be required to provide alternative accessible transportation as it could be considered not practicable as the Town would be commencing their initial transit services. However, at a later date, the Town could mandate the requirement of accessible taxis, which would meet the requirements of alternative accessible transportation. As noted in the Regulation, the Town is not required to implement a separate, specialized transit service.
5 Transit Service Alternatives
As Simcoe County’s LINX transit service focuses on providing inter-municipal transit connections, the transit service alternatives for New Tecumseth will focus on transit service within the Town. This section summarizes the possible transit service types and identifies possible transit service route options for consideration. 5.1 Transit Service Types There are three broad transit service options which could be applied to New Tecumseth: Scheduled fixed routes; On-demand Dial-a-ride flexible routes; and On-demand Taxi / Uber. Scheduled fixed routes operate on pre-determined routes with designated stops and on a specific schedule. An example of a schedule fixed route service is the County’s LINX service connecting Penetanguishene/Midland to Barrie. In the context for the Town, could operate with 24-foot to 30-foot low floor buses or smaller minibuses and could be suitable for the purpose of providing connections with regional services, express routes to regional destinations or a fixed route within the Town.. On-demand Dial-a-ride feeder service operates using flexible routes, flexible stops (typically based on passenger request), and with flexible schedules. Flexible routes either require booking for all trips or can feature a mixture of fixed stops and on- demand zones. Vehicles are dispatched based on passenger requests, through either advanced booking or real-time schedule via an app. York Region’s Dial-A-Ride (DAR) program is an example of this service, where passengers book a trip in advance to be pick up/dropped off to/from their homes and to/from the nearest bus stop. These routes could operate with 24-foot to 30-foot low floor buses, smaller
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minibuses or sedan vehicles. With minimal or no stop infrastructure, on-demand services require less infrastructure capital funding but require staff and overhead costs associated with taking bookings. Finally, on-demand taxi services can be used to offer flat fares or discounted rites to specific locations or requested locations within a set boundary. An example of this is the Town of Innisfil’s collaboration with Uber. However, higher than expected demand will generate additional costs. 5.2 County Transit Service Route Options The transit service options considered in this feasibility study build upon the County’s plans for a LINX route connecting Alliston to Bradford GO Station. Thus the transit service options for the Town focus on complimenting the County’s LINX service such that it feeds riders into the County service while also serving different areas to expand coverage. As the County has yet to identify a route for the LINX service, two LINX routing options are identified to inform the Town’s feasibility study, based on discussion with the County. Furthermore, the Alliston Recreation Centre has been discussed as a possible terminus station for the LINX route due to its nature as a major trip generator and community hub. In addition, it is assumed that the County route would focus operations on County and Provincial roads due to winter maintenance and design standards. Based on this, two LINX route Options connecting Alliston to Bradford GO are identified as follows: Option A – from the Alliston Recreation Centre, the route heads east on Industrial Parkway, south on County Road 10, east along County Road 1, south on Highway 27, and east on County Road 88 to the Bradford GO Station. This route would connect Alliston, Beeton, Bond Head, and Bradford. Option B – from the Alliston Recreation Centre, the route heads east on Industrial Parkway, east on Highway 89, south on Highway 27, and east on County Road 88. This route would connect Alliston, Cookstown in Innisfil, Bond Head, and Bradford. Each option includes two sub-options which focus on Town services. This includes on-demand service and a fixed transit service. An on-demand service was first considered due to lower capital costs when compared to a fixed transit service. These services have been found easier to launch for rural areas with spread out communities when compared to fixed routes. On-demand services could also help identify the demand and origin-destination data, which can be used to develop fixed transit routes for the future. A third Option C is also identified for consideration. This option is a Town-wide demand responsive service similar to the service currently being used in the Town of Innisfil. 5.3 Option A As mentioned above, Option A would have the County route run from the Alliston Recreation Centre, east on Industrial Parkway, south on County Road 10, east along County Road 1, south on Highway 27, and east on County Road 88 to the Bradford GO Station. Page 35 of 58 | 27 Transit Feasibility Study Town of New Tecumseth Two local transit service options were developed for Option A to compliment the County’s service and are described in the sections below.
5.3.1 Option A1: On-demand Option A1 would see the Town introduce an on-demand transit service for residents. An on-demand transit service would help with the rural nature of the Town and would help serve communities including Briar Hills, Tree Tops, and New Tecumseth Pines. Similar to York Region Transit’s Dial-A-Ride (DAR) program which would connect residents to the County’s inter-municipal transit route. Resident would request pick up in advance and would be dropped off at the nearest LINX transit station within the Town. This station would act as a mobility hub for the community as it would be the focal point for transit transfers. Residents could then transfer to the County service to connect to Alliston, Beeton, or to Bradford. The potential transit demand can be estimated sing the 1% transit market share identified in Section 3.5.1 and the 2016 TTS data. As the on-demand service and the LINX service would facilitate travel between the three settlement areas and between the settlement areas and Bradford, the number of these daily trips were extracted. In 2016, as shown in Table 3-2, a total of 2,690 daily trips occur between the settlement areas (this excludes the rural areas as they are not included in the catchment area). An additional 1,070 trips represent travel between the settlement areas and Bradford. With the 1% transit market share, this equal approximately 40 transit trips per day. As mentioned previously, it is important to note that TTS data tends to underestimate recreational trips and focuses more on commuter travel patterns. An on-demand transit service for the Town would help achieve the goals and vision for an introductory transit service.
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Figure 5-1: Option A1 Transit Service
A high level cost estimate was developed for Option A1. The details and assumptions for the cost estimates are summarized in Section 6.2. Table 5-1 summarizes the preliminary cost estimates.
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Table 5-1: Option A1 Preliminary Cost Estimates Types Costs Vehicles Costs (2 vans) $200,0001 Infrastructure Costs (1 bus stop) $2,0002 Total Capital Costs $202,000 Total Annual Operating Costs $671,100 Notes: 1Based on a review of the specialized transit table from CUTA, the average passengers per hour is less than the capacity of a single van, however, due to the size of the Town, 2 vans are recommended 2On-demand services usually do not require infrastructure costs (cost of a bus stop) and it is assumed that the County LINX service will build the stops in Alliston and Beeton, however it is uncertain if the County will build a stop at County Road 1 and County Road 10 as it is not within a settlement area. Therefore, as a conservative estimate, it is assumed that the Town will need to build a stop at this location.
5.3.2 Option A2: Fixed Route Option A2 would see the introduction of two fixed routes within the Town. There would be a fixed route in Alliston would which connect residents from Alliston, Treetops, and Briar Hills to the LINX service at the Recreation Centre. This route would travel along Victoria Street and provide service to the major trips generators noted in Section 2.2.2. The second route would run between Beeton and Tottenham, serving both communities and providing transfers to the LINX service, against serving major generators in both communities. Through these services, New Tecumseth residents would be able to travel within and between all settlements as they can transfer to the LINX service between them. A total of 24,050 daily trips occur within and between the settlement areas, as shown in Table 3-2. With the additional trips between the settlement areas and Bradford (1,070 daily trips), and with a 1% market share, the transit services will see an estimated 250 daily transit trips.
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Figure 5-2: Option A2 Transit Service
A high level cost estimate was developed for Option A2. Table 5-2 summarizes the preliminary cost estimates.
Table 5-2: Option A2 Preliminary Cost Estimates Types Costs Vehicles Costs – Yellow Route (2 buses) $450,0001 Vehicle Costs – Green Route (1 bus) $225,0001 Infrastructure Costs (20 bus stops) $40,0002 Total Capital Costs $715,000 Annual Operating Cost – Yellow Route $550,000 Annual Operating Cost – Green Route $270,000 Total Annual Operating Costs $820,000 Notes:
Page 39 of 58 | 31 Transit Feasibility Study Town of New Tecumseth 1A total of two buses are required to provide hourly service on the yellow route. 2One bus is required to provide hourly service on the green route. 3A total of 20 bus stops are estimated between both routes 5.4 Option B As mentioned above, Option B would have the County route run from the Alliston Recreation Centre, east on Industrial Parkway, east on Highway 89, south on Highway 27, and east on County Road 88 to the Bradford GO Station. This route would connect Alliston, Cookstown in Innisfil, Bond Head, and Bradford Two local transit service options were developed for Option B to compliment the County’s service and are described in the sections below.
5.4.1 Option B1: On-demand Similar to Option A1, Option B1 would see the Town introduce an on-demand transit service for residents. The service would pick up residents and drop them off at the main mobility hub in Alliston: the Recreation Centre. There, they could connect to the County’s LINX service. This route differs than Option A1 as residents outside of Alliston would not have to transfer to the LINX service to access Alliston as the drop off area is the Recreation Centre. The transit ridership for Option B1 is equal to Option A1 (40 transit trips) as both options serve the same markets, only though different service types.
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Figure 5-3: Option B1 Transit Service
A high level cost estimate was developed for Option B1. Table 5-3 summarizes the preliminary cost estimates.
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Table 5-3: Option B1 Preliminary Cost Estimates Types Costs Vehicles Costs (2 vans) $200,0001 Infrastructure Costs N/A2 Total Capital Costs $200,000 Total Annual Operating Costs $671,100 Notes: 1Based on a review of the specialized transit table from CUTA, the average passengers per hour is less than the capacity of a single van, however, due to the size of the Town, 2 vans are recommended 2On-demand services usually do not require infrastructure costs (cost of a bus stop) and it is assumed that the County LINX service will build the stops in Alliston.
5.4.2 Option B2: Fixed Route Option B2 would see the introduction of a single fixed service route within the Town. It would connect to the LINX system at the Alliston Recreation Centre, before heading through Alliston and Briar Hill via Highway 89, and towards Treetops and Beeton via 10th Side Road, before continuing onto County Road 1 and County Road 10 to Tottenham. This route would provide service to the major trip generators in each settlement area, as well as connectivity between the settlement areas. The transit ridership for Option B2 is equal to Option A2 (250 transit trips) as both options serve the same markets, only though different service types.
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Figure 5-4: Option B2 Transit Service
A high level cost estimate was developed for Option B2. Table 5-4 summarizes the preliminary cost estimates. This operating cost assumes three vehicles are required to operate a reliable hourly service. It is possible that a more detailed study would identify sufficient savings in the combination of schedule time and layover time (time used for driver breaks and to recover from any delays) to reduce requirements to two vehicles. If possible, this would reduce annual operating costs to approximately $550,000 per annum.
Page 43 of 58 | 35 Transit Feasibility Study Town of New Tecumseth Table 5-4: Option B2 Preliminary Cost Estimates Types Costs Vehicles Cost (3 buses) $675,0001 Infrastructure Costs (20 bus stops) $40,0002 Total Capital Costs $715,000 Total Annual Operating Costs $820,000 Notes: 1A total of three buses are required to provide hourly service. 2A total of 20 bus stops are estimated between both routes 5.5 Option C: Demand Responsive / Rideshare Option C provides a Town-wide demand responsive service to residents. Similar to Innisfil’s Uber approach, residents would request a ride and drop off location for a subsidized fee. Annual operating costs may be in the range of $800,000 - $1,000,0001. This option would provide residents the ability to connect to any destination within the Town, no matter the origin or destination. Residents in rural areas or developments outside of the on-demand service zone in Options A1 and B1 would have access to opportunities including employment, institutional, and commercial uses. Although this Option provides the greatest degree of mobility, further study is required to consider a wide variety of operational models for demand responsive services following this feasibility study. As seen in Innisfil’s report to Council in March 2019, the Town did not anticipate the level of demand that was realized, causing the service to go quickly over budget and resulting in the Town putting a cap on the number of trips. We recommend that further detailed work is required to determine the operational models or fare structures to make a demand responsive service a success.
1 This is a preliminary cost estimate. Further study is required. 36 | Page 44 of 58 Transit Feasibility Study Town of New Tecumseth
6 Costing Methodology and Assumptions 6.1 Transit System Comparisons Table 6-1 provides a peer comparison of other small transit systems based on statistics collected by the Canadian Urban Transit Association (CUTA). Although New Tecumseth does not currently have any transit services or forecasted costs to compare, data collected by CUTA can be used to determine a potential range. It is important to note that data variability among the indicators is a function of differences in local transit operations, including examples such as operating hours, schedule, fares, operating, costs, ridership, and funding sources. Table 6-1 provides valuable information on operating and financial data, along with key performance indicators, which are used to assess the feasibility and costs for new transit services. A comparison of peer transit systems indicates: Annual operating costs all exceed $290,000 per annum; The percentage of costs covered by revenue varies between 10% and 35%; and Of the municipalities considered, annual deficits all exceed $220,000. The CUTA table illustrates that running a transit service results in a deficit which is paid through taxes. A transit service will not make a profit, however, it is run to provide benefits and opportunities to residents in the Town, as mentioned in Section 3.5.
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Table 6-1: Transit System Comparison (CUTA Data) Niagara-on- Norfolk CUTA Bradford West Cobourg Deseronto Leamington Stratford Wasaga the-Lake County Innisfil (ON)1 Average Gwillimbury (ON) (ON) (ON) (ON) (ON) Beach (ON) (ON) (ON) Service Area < 50,000 29,860 10,740 13,970 20,000 11,120 30,740 32,000 11,560 36,570 Population Hours of Operation per 0.74 0.18 0.81 0.43 0.21 0.60 0.12 1.06 0.86 N/A Capita Cost per $96.03 $91.99 $91.39 $49.05 $68.98 $64.38 $83.81 $76.91 $62.43 N/A Operating Hours Rides per Capita 13.53 1.32 9.74 0.86 1.13 2.12 0.28 18.77 7.48 N/A Average Fare $1.52 $1.37 $1.15 $8.66 $1.21 $2.22 $3.40 $1.37 $1.57 $4+ Annual Hours of 5,568 8,746 6,829 4,223 8,999 3,610 37,643 9,984 N/A Operation Annual Ridership 39,385 104,651 11,971 22,650 23,581 8,692 600,728 86,423 85,943 Passengers per Page 46 of58 18.51 7.41 11.97 1.99 5.36 3.51 2.41 17.65 8.66 N/A Operating Hour Annual $512,210 $779,310 $334,986 $291,299 $579,365 $302,551 $2,895,002 $623,269 N/A Operating Cost Annual Revenue $65,373 $123,380 $106,059 $30,992 $205,221 $44,222 $824,650 $135,347 N/A $640,000 Annual Net $446,837 $489,046 $228,927 $260,307 $374,144 $209,852 $1,920,076 $487,922 (Subsidy in Costs (Deficit) 2018) Revenue to Cost 29% 13% 16% 32% 11% 35% 10% 28% 22% N/A Ratio Net Cost per $12.64 $46.16 $4.45 $5.27 $25.91 $7.18 $56.89 $33.46 $17.50 Capita Notes: 1 Service Area Population based on 2016 Census. Other Innisfil statistics from March 2019 Staff Report ‘Innisfil Transit – 2018 Results and Fare Changes’.
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A similar comparison focused on specialized transit system is provided in Table 6-2. Specialized transit systems serve riders with disabilities.
Table 6-2: Specialized Transit System Comparison (CUTA Data) CUTA Cobourg Cornwall North Bay Renfrew Stratford Timmins Average (ON) (ON) (ON) (ON) (ON) (ON) Service Area <50,000 18,520 46,340 47,080 26,950 32,000 36,620 Population Total Operating $168,364 $1,315,931 $703,711 $876,132 $448,215 $437,577 Expense Revenue to 15% 11% 8% 14% 66% 11% 6% Cost Ratio Annual Hours of 4,359 12,742 9,913 20,613 7,740 5,023 Operation Net Operating $18.63 $8.11 $26.20 $12.89 $10.94 $12.53 $11.24 Cost / Capita Total Expense / $15.24 $17.45 $33.57 $23.15 $22.46 $21.76 $33.00 Passenger Total Expense / $64.90 $38.62 $75.35 $60.56 $35.61 $2.87 $54.75 Hour Passengers / 1.44 0.52 0.85 0.65 1.45 0.64 0.36 Capita Passengers / 4.47 2.21 2.79 2.35 2.91 2.66 2.64 Hour 6.2 Preliminary Cost Estimates Preliminary high level capital costs and annual operating costs were estimated in order to develop overall draft cost estimates for the transit service alternatives in Section 5.
6.2.1 Capital Costs The capital costs for the transit service alternatives include vehicle and infrastructure costs. Two types of capital costs were developed: one based on a fixed route service and the other based on an on-demand service.
Vehicle Costs As mentioned in Section 3.5.1, the transit mode share for any initial service is expected to be relatively low. In addition, an initial service would want to minimize costs while also providing sufficient transit capacity and mobility capabilities. For a fixed route service, the Arboc- type 24 foot low floor cutaway bus is recommended. It has a capacity of 14 passengers. York Region Transit (YRT) has the Arboc bus in its fleet and is also planning on using it for their on-demand Dial-A- Ride (DAR) strategy for northern York Region. Based on YRT sources, the capital cost for one Arboc 24 foot low floor cutaway bus is approximately $225,000. For an on-demand service, marked vans are recommended. Based on a high level cost estimate, marked vans would cost up to $100,000.
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Infrastructure Costs For an initial transit service, infrastructure cost estimates comprises the cost of the bus stops along a route. For New Tecumseth, this would include the cost of a concrete pad2 and a sign post for the stop. A high level cost estimate for a bus stop is approximately $2,000. Generally, infrastructure costs are applied only towards fixed route services as they operate with buses which require the concrete pads. The on- demand service would use vans, not buses, and therefore concrete pads are unnecessary.
6.2.2 Annual Operating Costs The annual operating costs for a transit service includes the cost of the fuel, maintenance of the bus, and wages for the operator. Two types of annual operating costs were developed: one based on a fixed route service and the other based on an on-demand service. Based on the CUTA average of a small city, the hourly operating cost for a fixed transit route is $75 for fuel, maintenance, and wages. To calculate the overall annual operating costs, the following assumptions are used: Buses will run at design speeds of 20 kilometers per hour in urban areas and 40 kilometers per hour in rural areas, which assumes operating at posted speeds and includes stops for passenger pickup; Bus routes will operate for 12 hours a day, running an hourly schedule; and Buses will run for 303 days a year (excludes Sundays and holidays). Annual operating costs will be calculated for the transit service alternatives based on the length of the identified routes. For an on-demand service, Table 6-2 was referenced to calculate the average hourly operating cost as it reflects specialized transit systems. Based on Table 6-2, the hourly operating cost for an on-demand transit service is $66.72. As this is a high level planning estimate, the number of operators of this service was not calculated. Instead, the average hours of operations from Table 6-2 was used to determine the high level annual operating cost of an on-demand service. With an average of 10,060 annual operating hours, the on-demand service would cost an estimated $671,700 (Table 6-3).
Table 6-3: Estimated Annual Operating Cost for an On-Demand Service Types Costs Average Cost per Operating Hours (CUTA Specialized Transit System Table) $66.72 Average Annual Hours of Operation (CUTA Specialized Transit System Table) 10,060 Estimated Annual Operating Cost for On-Demand Service $671,700
2 A concrete pad is the area at bus stops where passengers wait to be picked up.
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7 Evaluation of Transit Service Alternatives
An evaluation of the transit service alternatives presented in Section 5 was conducted to determine the recommended transit service option for the Town of New Tecumseth. 7.1 Evaluation Criteria The evaluation of the transit service alternative is based on a set of criteria that include considerations based on the best practices mentioned in Section 4.1. The evaluation criteria are summarized below: Social Goal o Maximize mobility for all Town residents, particularly individuals who are unable to transport themselves to access jobs, health, educational and social opportunities. o Maximize potential ridership o Connect key origins and destinations within and surrounding the Town Economic Goal o Transit reduces the individual cost of travel o Reduces community costs by reducing required infrastructure and maintenance o Minimizes costs with respect to potential benefits o Provides opportunities for economic development Environmental Goal o Transit reduces the environmental impact of travel. 7.2 Evaluation of Alternatives The four transit service alternatives were evaluated based on the criteria listed above. Table 7-1 provides a detailed analysis of how each Option meets the criteria presented while Table 7-2 summarizes evaluation and provides recommendations for each alternative.
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Table 7-1: Detailed Analysis of Transit Service Alternatives Evaluation Option A1 Option A2 Option B1 Option B2 Option C Criteria Provides good mobility. Shorter routes within Provides good Alliston and between Lowest mobility – does mobility, but likely Tottenham/Beeton will not serve destinations infrequent service Second lowest Provides the highest Social Goal – allow for more frequent off of the LINX route. due to route mobility – does not degree of mobility, Mobility / service. However two Vans need to travel distance. serve destinations off and highest potential Ridership transfers would be required longer distances to Continuous service of the LINX route ridership for travel from Tottenham LINX route resulting in between Tottenham to locations in Alliston less frequent service. and Alliston is beyond walking distance of beneficial. the transit terminal. Social Goal – Lowest connectivity – Lowest connectivity – Good connectivity Highest degree of Good connectivity based Connects Key only connects to LINX only connects to LINX based on proposed connectivity and
Page 50 of58 on proposed routing. No Origins/Destina (assuming LINX stops (assuming LINX stops routing. No service flexibility, serving rural service to rural areas. tions only at the rec centre). only at the rec centre). to rural areas. areas as well. Promotes active Promotes active Economic Goal transportation to Supports LINX route. transportation to access Supports LINX route. – Reduces access transit stops, Would likely require Can be priced transit stops, Supports Can be priced Individual Cost Supports LINX higher fares per ride inexpensively. LINX route. Can be priced inexpensively. of Travel route. Can be priced inexpensively. inexpensively. Economic Goal – Minimizes Capital Most cost effective Very high costs Somewhat cost effective Very high costs Likely highest costs /Operating Costs Economic Goal Poor connectivity, Poor connectivity, likely Highest potential to Fixed route has high Fixed route has high – Supports likely least supportive least supportive option attract business and visibility and may attract visibility and may Economic option for economic for economic other types of investment. attract investment. Development development. development. investment. Short travel distance Longer travel distance Ridesharing / Taxi to connect to LINX to connect Tottenham Lower potential to Short, efficient fixed routes type service may Environmental and on-demand and Beeton to LINX but attract transit trips will allow for more frequent actually increase total Goal services reduce on-demand services due to lower service. vehicular kilometers potential for low- reduce potential for low- frequency. travelled utilization trips. utilization trips.
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Table 7-2: Evaluation of Transit Service Alternatives Evaluation Criteria Option A1 Option A2 Option B1 Option B2 Option C Social Goal – Mobility and Potential Ridership ◔ ◕ ○ ◑ ●
Social Goal – Connects Key Origins/Destinations ○ ◑ ○ ◑ ●
Economic Goal – Reduces Individual Cost of Travel ◑ ● ◑ ● ○
Economic Goal – Minimizes Capital /Operating Costs ● ◔ ◕ ◔ ○
Economic Goal – Supports Economic Development ○ ◕ ○ ◕ ●
Environmental Goal ● ◑ ◕ ◔ ○ CARRY CARRY Recommendation SCREEN OUT SCREEN OUT SCREEN OUT FORWARD FORWARD1
Does Not Meet Criteria ○◔◑◕● Meets Criterion Notes: 1Option C requires further study to determine a feasible operational model due to the financial risks of running a demand responsive / rideshare service. Overall, Option A1 and B1 are recommended to be screened out as the proposed service is limited to serving the LINX route. As such, this type of service is recommended to be screened out. The fixed route options A2 and B2 both perform well. A2 in particular can provide more frequent transit service particularly within the primary settlement area of Alliston. One drawback to A2 includes the need to transfer twice for Tottenham to Alliston trips. Despite this, A2 performs better than B2 and as such A2 is recommended to be carried forward. Option C provides the highest degree of mobility but at the same time may cost a significant amount of money as noted by the Town of Innisfil. Further study is required to determine an appropriate fare structure which would provide costs comparable to A2 while providing the added mobility. Option C therefore is recommended to be carried forward.
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8 Conclusions / Next Steps
There is a high demand for transit within the Town of New Tecumseth. Based on public feedback, it is clear that that public supports the introduction of transit services in the Town. This Transit Feasibility Study identified transit service concepts and evaluated them to determine feasible transit service alternatives to be carried forward for further study. Based on the evaluation in Section 7, a fixed route service within the Town is the preferred alternative. Option A2 is recommended as the transit service option for the Town as it would provide mobility to residents, serve key destinations within the Town, and connect with the County’s LINX route. As well, Option C is also recommended to be carried forward as it maximizes mobility. However, further study is required to determine the financial implications and the operational model for this type of service. Recommended Next Steps: 1. The Town should work closely with Simcoe County such that they can create a local transit service which compliments and supports the County’s LINX service. This report provides the foundation of the discussions of transit service concepts between the Town and Simcoe County. 2. Conduct a Transit Implementation Study, to determine additional details including (but not limited to) routing and initial stop locations, fares, vehicles, and an annual service plan and budget for the next three to five years. 3. Conduct an impact assessment to understand how different segments of the population (by demographics including age, gender, and income) would benefit with different options. New Tecumseth workforce and tourists should also be included; 4. Class 4 cost estimates for all infrastructure requirements; 5. Investigate potential capital and operating funding programs from higher levels of government; and 6. Review of potential alternative accessible transportation.
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Appendix A. GO Transit Route Maps
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Appendix A-1: GO Bus Route 37 Orangeville / Brampton
Source: GO Transit Route Maps
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Appendix A-2: GO Bus Route 38 Bolton / Malton / North York
Source: GO Transit Route Maps
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Appendix A-3: GO Bus Route 66 East Gwillimbury / North York Express
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Appendix A-4: Barrie GO Rail Line and GO Bus Routes 63-65-68-69 Barrie
Source: GO Transit Route Maps
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Appendix A-5: Barrie Transit Route 90 Angus Borden
Source: Barrie Transit Route Maps
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