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Quantifying Contributions of Climate Change and Local Human Activities to Runoff Decline in the Second Songhua River Basin

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Quantifying Contributions of Climate Change and Local Human Activities to Runoff Decline in the Second Songhua River Basin water Article Quantifying Contributions of Climate Change and Local Human Activities to Runoff Decline in the Second Songhua River Basin Bao Shanshan 1 , Yang Wei 1, Wang Xiaojun 2,3 and Li Hongyan 1,* 1 Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment, Jilin Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Environment, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China; [email protected] (B.S.); [email protected] (Y.W.) 2 State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China; [email protected] 3 Research Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing 210029, China * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +86-137-5625-7761 Received: 29 July 2020; Accepted: 15 September 2020; Published: 23 September 2020 Abstract: In the past several decades, climate change and human activities have influenced hydrological processes, and potentially caused more frequent and extensive flood and drought risks. Therefore, identification and quantification of the driving factors of runoff variation have become a hot research area. This paper used the trend analysis method to show that runoff had a significant downward trend during the past 60 years in the Second Songhua River Basin (SSRB) of Northeast China. The upper, middle, and lower streams of five hydrological stations were selected to analyze the breakpoint of the annual runoff in the past 60 years, and the breakpoints were used to divide the entire study period into two sub-periods (1956–1974 and 1975–2015). Using the water–energy coupling balance method based on Choudhury–Yang equation, the climatic and catchment landscape elasticity coefficient of the annual runoff change was estimated, and attribution analysis of the runoff change was carried out for the Fengman Reservoir and Fuyu stations in SSRB. The change in potential evapotranspiration has a weak effect on the runoff, and change in precipitation and catchment landscape were the leading factors affecting runoff. Impacts of climate change and land cover change were accountable for the runoff decrease by 80% and 11% (Fengman), 17% and 206% (Fuyu) on average, respectively; runoff was more sensitive to climate change in Fengman, and was more sensitive to catchment landscape change in Fuyu. In Fengman, the population was small, owing to the comparatively inhospitable natural conditions, and so human activities were low. However, in Fuyu, human activities were more intensive, and so had more impact on runoff for the Lower Second Songhua River compared to the Upper Second Songhua River. Keywords: climate change; Budyko hypothesis; Choudhury–Yang equation; human activities; runoff change; Second Songhua River Basin 1. Introduction 1.1. Attribution Analysis of Runoff Changes Human development and progress are facing serious challenges in addressing three major problems: Population expansion, resource shortages, and environmental degradation [1]. All three issues are closely related to water resources, and the issue of water resources in China has been growing since the 1980s [2,3]. Research shows that the measured runoff at the main control stations has significantly decreased in Chinese rivers [4]. Climate change (precipitation and potential evaporation) Water 2020, 12, 2659; doi:10.3390/w12102659 www.mdpi.com/journal/water Water 2020, 12, 2659 2 of 18 and human activities (land cover, reservoir operations, and withdraw water) are the major drivers altering hydrological processes, which potentially cause more frequent and extensive flood and drought risks [5]. The risks have been impacting the economy, society, and the environment for decades [6]. Any changes within the climate system and the impacts of human activities at each link will be reflected in runoff. Thus, the identification and quantification of the driving factors of runoff variation have become a hot research area. A quantitative evaluation of the response of runoff to climate change and human activities is not only a scientific issue in the field of environmental change research, but also a problem faced by hydrological scientists. In the separation of contributions from runoff influencing factors, accurately assessing the contribution of different factors to runoff changes is difficult in research. The main methods to quantitatively analyze the contribution of climate change and the catchment landscape to runoff include statistical analysis and hydrological models [7]. Hydrological models have become an important tool in hydrologic research, and have been widely applied to many locations worldwide. Critical to success is the selection of the appropriate hydrologic model based on the natural geographical conditions of a basin, and the calibration of the model parameters using hydrological data collected for areas not affected by humans [8]. Thereafter, the runoff in periods affected by human activity is predicted by the hydrological model, and the deviation between predicted and measured values shows the influence of catchment landscape conditions [9]. However, the uncertainty associated with hydrological models is just one of the problems associated with their use [10]. First, the model parameters are difficult to quantify because of the high uncertainty caused by the impact of human activities. Second, it is difficult to validate a model due to the lack of measured data. The randomness of results is relatively large and underrepresented. Furthermore, several studies [7,11,12] have shown that due to the uncertainty of model structure and parameter calibration, different modeling methods may have different results. The main statistical method is the Budyko hypothesis; this has been used to analyze the change of runoff to climate change. Wang and Hejazi [13] quantified the relationship between climate and direct human impacts on annual runoff in 413 US catchments based on the Budyko hypothesis. In their study, the impact of human activities was simply estimated by subtracting climate impact from the total runoff change. Some scholars have introduced precipitation and temperature into the climate elasticity coefficient [14–16], and established a two-parameter climate elasticity model including precipitation and temperature [17]. Roderick and Farquhar [18] derived an analytical expression for the effects on runoff of small perturbations in precipitation, potential evaporation, and a parameter representing the catchment properties using the Choudhury–Yang equation [3,19]. The use of elasticity is preferable to a simple rate of change, as it elegantly captures the impact of a given change on the normal state of a system. Because the water–energy balance equation expresses the non-linear interaction between climate and hydrology, the elastic coefficient can be used as an index to describe the sensitivity of runoff to climate, which refers to the percentage change in runoff caused by climate change (precipitation and potential evapotranspiration). The greater the absolute value of the elastic coefficient, the greater the impact of the corresponding meteorological characteristics on runoff. Among the above methods, the process-based approaches are more complicated with high uncertainty in their parameters compared with other simple models. Empirical approaches use simple linear relationships derived from long-term historical data, but generally lack physical meanings. Conceptual models built on the principle of catchment water–energy balance are potentially useful for investigating the catchment hydrological response to environmental. 1.2. Previous Studies in Second Songhua River Basin The Second Songhua River Basin (SSRB) is the largest river in Jilin Province, covering the old industrial base in Northeast China, and is an important commodity base in China. Many previous studies have shown a decreasing trend in runoff under the combined influence of human activities and climate change in the SSRB [20–23]. For example, Li [21] concluded that human activities played Water 2020, 12, 2659 3 of 18 a major role in the reduction of runoff. Cao [24] used single-factor linear regression, single-factor hydrothermal coupling, and multi-factor hydrothermal coupling and found that the contribution of climate change and human activities on runoff change are 60.77–66.05% and 38.23%, respectively. Different models/methods have been used to get different conclusions. Therefore, it is necessary to adopt a unified analysis method and a unified data series to systematically analyze the main control factors of the annual runoff reduction in SSRB. Previous studies mainly used the Budyko hypothesis equation to analyze the runoff changes related to climate change; the impact of human activities was only estimated from the total runoff change by subtracting the climate impact. However, these studies [21,24] did not evaluate the impact of land use/cover changes. 1.3. The Objectives of This Paper The present study focuses on attribution analysis on the change of natural water resources available in SSRB. It aims to attribute the natural runoff change to climate variability and land use/cover change using the catchment water–energy balance equation (i.e., Choudhury–Yang equation) in order to avoid infrastructure influence on streamflow and obtain a better understanding of change in natural water availability. Finally, a reasonable water resource management strategy is proposed. 2. Description of the Study Area 2.1. Study Area The SSRB (124◦360–128◦500 E and 41◦440–45◦240 N) originates from two locations near the main peak of the Changbai Mountains in Northeast China.
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