Zonally opposing shifts of the intertropical convergence zone in response to climate change by Antonios Mamalakis1*, James T. Randerson2, Jin-Yi Yu2, Michael S. Pritchard2, Gudrun Magnusdottir2, Padhraic Smyth3,4, Paul A. Levine2, Sungduk Yu5, and Efi Foufoula-Georgiou1,2* 1 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine 2 Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine 3 Department of Computer Science, University of California, Irvine 4 Department of Statistics, University of California, Irvine 5 Department of Geology and Geophysics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut Keywords: intertropical convergence zone, ITCZ, climate change, CMIP6 Submitted to Nature Climate Change Initially submitted on September 2nd, 2019. Decision received on February 28th, 2020. Revision submitted on June 30th, 2020. *email:
[email protected],
[email protected] 1 Abstract Future changes in the location of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) due to climate change are of high interest since they could substantially alter precipitation patterns in the tropics and subtropics. Although models predict a future narrowing of the ITCZ during the 21st century in response to climate warming, uncertainties remain large regarding its future position, with most past work focusing on the zonal-mean ITCZ shifts. Here we use projections from 27 state-of-the- art climate models (CMIP6) to investigate future changes in ITCZ location as a function of longitude and season, in response to climate warming. We document a robust zonally opposing response of the ITCZ, with a northward shift over eastern Africa and the Indian Ocean, and a southward shift in the eastern Pacific and Atlantic Ocean by 2100, for the SSP3-7.0 scenario.